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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Good morning Scotland! Will it be different from the polls

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited September 2014
    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    SeanT said:

    The £ is up nearly a $ since 6am.

    A $! A whole $! Erm...no. That would be GBP1 = $1.61 goes to $2.61.
    Yeah. Derr. Sorry. Not at my sharpest.

    I've just got up as I am trying to get as much sleep as poss. It seems I'm probably going to be doing overnight indyref blogs for the Telegraph.
    Join the club, I'm going to bed at 4pm, wake up at 9pm, and do PB threads tonight and into the early hours of the club.

    I have12 cans of red bull at the ready
  • Yes 45% - 50% band now narrowly odds-on with Betfair.
    For value, I'd rather go for the 40% - 45% band below at just under 3/1
    DYOR
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Patrick said:

    SeanT said:

    The £ is up nearly a $ since 6am.

    A $! A whole $! Erm...no. That would be GBP1 = $1.61 goes to $2.61.
    That's probably more to do with the chickens coming home to roost for the Muslim, non-American, red under the bed president. I'm sure the Kochs et al have been predicting the dire end of the dollar for some time.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Socrates said:

    A petition of more than 1,000 signatures raised by islanders from Shetland, Orkney and the Western Isles calling for a separate referendum on whether they could themselves become independent was rejected last month by the Scottish government, which said it had promised new powers to the three island groups.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/17/shetland-may-reconsider-place-scotland-yes-vote-alistair-carmichael?CMP=twt_gu

    More Scotch hypocrisy. What a surprise.

    I told you yesterday that they want to be separated from scotland.
    If scotland goes, england will give the Shetlands and the Orkneys a referendum to separate them from scotland and take all the oil and fish from the SNP's hands.
    Revenge will be ironic and sweet.
  • A lot of straw clutching going on today. It's unsurprising, but basically bollocks.

    No-one knows today so it's pointless trying to second guess.

    Absolutely

    Perhaps we should all talk about something else. It would be a refreshing change...
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Speedy said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Interesting aside on the question of the effect the Scottish referendum might have on perceptions of an EU referendum.

    Assuming that No pull it off and that Cameron is PM after 2015.

    I can see no way on earth that main Westminster parties will be able, politically, to keep their promises to Scotland about further devolution without addressing the the WLQ and making a lot of other moves that will shore up English support but upset the Scots.

    ....

    Why would addressing the WLQ upset the Scots in that scenario?

    More generally, both sides of the EU debate will certainly be able to learn a lot from the IndyRef campaign, and in particular how not to do it! Overall, though, I think the net effect of IndyRef on the EU question is very hard to predict.
    Watching the debates up here in Scotland there has been a fair amount made of the fact that Scots MPs might be relegated to a second class position (as it has been phrased). It does not appear to be popular.
    Why do they think they should be entitled to vote on English matters when they want Scottish matters decided only by the Scottish?
    Given almost everything is linked to our pocket money it is debatable if there are ever any English only matters, they all have consequences for Scotland perhaps.
    Couldn't the same be said about Scottish matters to the English?
    No because the English decide the level of pocket money and where all the money is spent.
    You get far more money that the oil revenues, poor wales gets almost nothing because all the money has to go to the SNP's pocket.
    Furthermore the SNP decides what to do with the money they get.
    The whole of Britain gets funds disbursed to it according to how parliament thinks its deserved. Its quite easy to imagine why remote areas would require mure to sustain them than developed ones.
    The notion that it is 'pocket money' just shows what a miserable chip people like malcolmg have on their shoulders. For years Scotland had more MPs than it strictly deserved to decide these funds. Its only devolution which ended that. it would be nice to see Scotland taking its funding and using it wisely to create wealth than enabled it not to need the Barnett formula. If they elected a Conservative govt in Edinburgh they might have a chance
  • New Thread
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    corporeal said:

    Are there no exit polls today at all? When are we going to get the first indication of the way the vote is going?

    There's a few guides to judge how results point to national picture. I'll post one up later, or if you look up Chris Hanretty on twitter he had a good one.
    AndyJS of this parish posted one as well (haven't got the link to hand but am sure you can search for it)
  • Niall Fergusson:

    For most of the early modern period, the Scots kingdom was Europe’s Afghanistan. In the Highlands and the Hebrides, feudal warlords ruled over an utterly impoverished populace in conditions of lawlessness and internecine clan conflict. In the Lowlands, religious zealots who fantasised about a Calvinist theocracy – government by the godly Elect – prohibited dancing, drinking and drama. John Knox and his ilk were the Taliban of the Reformation. Witches were burnt in large numbers in Scotland, not in England......

    ......This, then, gives us a hint of what Alex Salmond’s brave new Scotland would really be like: a divided and rancorous society with a vindictive style of politics. If that sounds familiar, that’s because it nicely sums up Scotland as it was before the Union."


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11102126/Scottish-referendum-Alone-Scotland-will-go-back-to-being-a-failed-state.html
  • BenM said:

    I love how dim British consumers are!

    Helping retail sales by buying lots of pointless high energy consuming vaccuum cleaners?

    Such idiocy brings capitalism into disrepute.

    Vacuum cleaners have gone political!! They are part of the Class War now. Strange times
    The odd thing is that in the run up to the ban, one well known uk selling company was selling (in £) some very powerful ones >2kW with a significant discount, as you would expect when it is days away from being banned.

    Go to their website now and it has not been withdrawn, is still on sale, and has gone back to full price. So it looks like they have just stuck two fingers up to the EU.

    That is a result of the exact wording of the ban. It is on importing or manufacturing any further higher power models. But it does not prevent the continued sale of existing stock.
    It is an utterly bizarre ban.

    Vacuum cleaners are not in use 24/7 in every home. Their contribution to energy consumption is not that great when you look at all the other things that are in use in a domestic setting. What is likely to happen is that people will have to run their new lower power machines for longer - and thus still use about the same amount of energy as before to achieve the same result.

    It is policies like this that make people wonder about the EU and their priorities.
    I know nothing about vacuum cleaners, but the argument is that you can get the necessary suckage without needing all those watts, and people buy them because they also don't know their vacuum cleaners and assume moar must be better. If that's right then you get a energy-saving win without much practical downside, although I'd still be opposed because freedom.
    Except it is simply not true. The leading low wattage alternatives have been tested by various organisations and found to be no where near as effective. What it actually means is that people will simply use the machines for longer to get the same effect which kind of removes the point of the ban.
    Washing machines and fridges have energy efficiency ratings, do vacuum cleaners? The danger is that people will buy the highest wattage cleaner assuming that it will clean the best.
  • If Scotland were to go independent, I wonder what a post-indi Scottish parliament would look like? Would the SNP remain to the left of Labour? Or potentially splinter into two groups (Tartan Tories vs. Radicals)?
  • Didn't anyone tell Salmond that North Sea Oil & Gas is rapidly becoming depleted?
    The future is with fracking and the untold wealth from English Gas reserves to be extracted for many decades to come.
  • Niall Fergusson:

    For most of the early modern period, the Scots kingdom was Europe’s Afghanistan. In the Highlands and the Hebrides, feudal warlords ruled over an utterly impoverished populace in conditions of lawlessness and internecine clan conflict. In the Lowlands, religious zealots who fantasised about a Calvinist theocracy – government by the godly Elect – prohibited dancing, drinking and drama. John Knox and his ilk were the Taliban of the Reformation. Witches were burnt in large numbers in Scotland, not in England......

    ......This, then, gives us a hint of what Alex Salmond’s brave new Scotland would really be like: a divided and rancorous society with a vindictive style of politics. If that sounds familiar, that’s because it nicely sums up Scotland as it was before the Union."


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11102126/Scottish-referendum-Alone-Scotland-will-go-back-to-being-a-failed-state.html

    Niall is an establishment lacky. Ask academic historians in Scotland what they think about him, lol. What complete garbage you lot talk. There will be no bitterly divided society - it's complete fantasy from people who don't live here and who know nothing..
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Niall Fergusson:

    For most of the early modern period, the Scots kingdom was Europe’s Afghanistan. In the Highlands and the Hebrides, feudal warlords ruled over an utterly impoverished populace in conditions of lawlessness and internecine clan conflict. In the Lowlands, religious zealots who fantasised about a Calvinist theocracy – government by the godly Elect – prohibited dancing, drinking and drama. John Knox and his ilk were the Taliban of the Reformation. Witches were burnt in large numbers in Scotland, not in England......

    ......This, then, gives us a hint of what Alex Salmond’s brave new Scotland would really be like: a divided and rancorous society with a vindictive style of politics. If that sounds familiar, that’s because it nicely sums up Scotland as it was before the Union."


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11102126/Scottish-referendum-Alone-Scotland-will-go-back-to-being-a-failed-state.html

    Niall is an establishment lacky. Ask academic historians in Scotland what they think about him, lol. What complete garbage you lot talk. There will be no bitterly divided society - it's complete fantasy from people who don't live here and who know nothing..
    Yes, those people who live in other countries - or even other parts of the UK - aren't to be trusted!
  • Can I just register my appreciation of MalcolmG's contributions over recent months. Although obviously barking, his dogged one-eyed misanthropic grumpiness has made me laugh on numerous occasions. Best wishes from Deep England.


  • Except it is simply not true. The leading low wattage alternatives have been tested by various organisations and found to be no where near as effective. What it actually means is that people will simply use the machines for longer to get the same effect which kind of removes the point of the ban.

    Washing machines and fridges have energy efficiency ratings, do vacuum cleaners? The danger is that people will buy the highest wattage cleaner assuming that it will clean the best.
    A quick Google found:
    James Brown, who runs the vacuum cleaner museum in Derbyshire, says a high wattage is no guarantee of good suction.

    He said plenty of appliances would clean well whilst using less than the new 1600 watt limit imposed this week.

    He alleged that some manufacturers increase the wattage of their appliances every few years to fool customers into thinking they will suck more strongly.

    Mr Brown, who calls himself Mr Vacuum Cleaner, considers himself an expert on vacuum cleaner performance.

    His views appear to be supported by the German official testing agency Stiftung Warentest, who told BBC News that 38 models of cleaner would work effectively within the new limits.

    So which "various organisations" say that it's not true
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Mr Navabi askes ''Why would addressing the WLQ upset the Scots in that scenario?'' in response to another comment.

    I have to agree.
    The notion of Scots MPs being disregarded because they are not allowed to rule on the purely English matters when devolution prevents them for ruling on the same issues in their own constituencies - well it has to be totally facile. its devolution, more power locally which limits Scots MPs in Westminster.
  • Socrates said:

    Niall Fergusson:

    For most of the early modern period, the Scots kingdom was Europe’s Afghanistan. In the Highlands and the Hebrides, feudal warlords ruled over an utterly impoverished populace in conditions of lawlessness and internecine clan conflict. In the Lowlands, religious zealots who fantasised about a Calvinist theocracy – government by the godly Elect – prohibited dancing, drinking and drama. John Knox and his ilk were the Taliban of the Reformation. Witches were burnt in large numbers in Scotland, not in England......

    ......This, then, gives us a hint of what Alex Salmond’s brave new Scotland would really be like: a divided and rancorous society with a vindictive style of politics. If that sounds familiar, that’s because it nicely sums up Scotland as it was before the Union."


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11102126/Scottish-referendum-Alone-Scotland-will-go-back-to-being-a-failed-state.html

    Niall is an establishment lacky. Ask academic historians in Scotland what they think about him, lol. What complete garbage you lot talk. There will be no bitterly divided society - it's complete fantasy from people who don't live here and who know nothing..
    Yes, those people who live in other countries - or even other parts of the UK - aren't to be trusted!
    No-one said anything like that. Do you work for the Daily Mail?
This discussion has been closed.