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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Good morning Scotland! Will it be different from the polls in the privacy of the polling booth?

This is what the ballot paper looks like (vis @faisalislam )
pic.twitter.com/D95tRyK1hE

Read the full story here

audreyanne

Good morning Scotland. Good luck in your decision, and it is 'your' decision. I love democracy.

GeoffM

Second! And what a day this will be..

Alanbrooke

Get on with it you bunch of prima donnas. 3 years of posturing narcissism finally come to an end.

GeoffM

Alanbrooke said:

Get on with it you bunch of prima donnas. 3 years of posturing narcissism finally come to an end.

Calm down Mr Brooke. We'll be doing all this again in 10 years time after a narrow NO.

Alanbrooke

GeoffM said:

Alanbrooke said:

Get on with it you bunch of prima donnas. 3 years of posturing narcissism finally come to an end.

Calm down Mr Brooke. We'll be doing all this again in 10 years time after a narrow NO.

Mr Salmond promised there would be another one for about 18 years. You're not trying to say he'd just make it up ?

DavidL

So it is finally here. In some ways that is a relief.

Polling station duty at 7.00 so can't dawdle. If we are not there sharp I suspect our boards etc will all have mysteriously disappeared. My polling station is in Lochee which is a relatively poor and run down part of Dundee so it will be interesting to get a feel for what is motivating people there. May be a bit early for some of them of course.

GeoffM

GeoffM said:

Alanbrooke said:

Get on with it you bunch of prima donnas. 3 years of posturing narcissism finally come to an end.

Calm down Mr Brooke. We'll be doing all this again in 10 years time after a narrow NO.

That the very thought even crossed our minds probably dooms us to years in a Re-education Camp.

Alanbrooke

DavidL said:

So it is finally here. In some ways that is a relief.

Polling station duty at 7.00 so can't dawdle. If we are not there sharp I suspect our boards etc will all have mysteriously disappeared. My polling station is in Lochee which is a relatively poor and run down part of Dundee so it will be interesting to get a feel for what is motivating people there. May be a bit early for some of them of course.

Best of british luck David. :-)

RochdalePioneers

Regardless of the result its a festival of democracy. Mass voter registration, mass debate, hopefully mass turnout.

Roger

Good morning from a rather cold Aberdeen. I'm off to the polling station now to do the exits (?). I've been told to try to look Scottish. Without any red hair dye handy I imagine that just means looking cold. A lot of nervous people around

Casino_Royale

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

So it is finally here. In some ways that is a relief.

Polling station duty at 7.00 so can't dawdle. If we are not there sharp I suspect our boards etc will all have mysteriously disappeared. My polling station is in Lochee which is a relatively poor and run down part of Dundee so it will be interesting to get a feel for what is motivating people there. May be a bit early for some of them of course.

Best of british luck David. :-)

Seconded. A huge best of British David.

Casino_Royale

RochdalePioneers said:

Regardless of the result its a festival of democracy. Mass voter registration, mass debate, hopefully mass turnout.

It's not a 'festival' for those having agonising sleepless nights, terrified of losing their country.

This is deadly serious.

SouthamObserver

And so it begins ...

Farewell Scotland, it'll be sad to see you go. Sold down the river for a pile of fool's gold by a parcel of Westminster and nationalist rogues.

fitalass

Its going to be a long day....
Gavin Hamilton ‏@GHmltn now
People queuing at polling stations waiting to vote in Edinburgh

Twitter
Ben Page, Ipsos MORI ‏@benatipsosmori 3m
Today many pollsters will be thinking about Quebec 1995

numbercruncher

So today's the day. I've made some tweaks to my early results benchmarks in response to feedback. To recap, the first version of the model used the dispersion from the 1997 devolution referendum. This had the benefit of using known, real vote tallies, motivated by the uniformity of the swing between the 1979 and 1997 referenda. But disconnect between devolution and independance views led to odd results in certain areas.

The second version used the estimates of the 2010 westminster vote shares by local authority combined with partisan yes/no splits from opinion polls. This gave much more intuitive results than the first version, but had no way of adjusting for regional patterns specific to this referendum.

This third version includes uniform adjustments at regional level based on polling data. This has similar caveats to the second version.

Areas where I'm particularly cautious include the islands - the regional adjustment is based on polling of the highlands and islands region but clearly the islands could be very different to the highlands and some people have indeed suggested this.

Here is the updated dispersion, normalised to a 50-50 national tie, with the previous two methods for comparison:

http://numbercruncheruk.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/how-should-we-interpret-early-results-III.html#more

As always, feedback is welcome.

I'll be online through the night to comment on how the results shape up as they come in.

Innocent_Abroad

GeoffM said:

Alanbrooke said:

Get on with it you bunch of prima donnas. 3 years of posturing narcissism finally come to an end.

Calm down Mr Brooke. We'll be doing all this again in 10 years time after a narrow NO.

A NO by less than the number of Sassenachs resident in Scotland, or a YES by fewer than the number of 16- and 17-year-olds on the electoral role is surely going to leave a very bad taste in the mouth, north and south of the border.

I am beginning to wonder about DevoMax All Round, with London split off from England to produce a passably federal state in these islands...

Innocent_Abroad

And... completely O/T but too good to resist: the Conservative candidate for the Toronto Mayoralty is a Mr John Tory!

RochdalePioneers

Casino_Royale said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Regardless of the result its a festival of democracy. Mass voter registration, mass debate, hopefully mass turnout.

It's not a 'festival' for those having agonising sleepless nights, terrified of losing their country.

This is deadly serious.

Its always deasdly serious. Voting is a revolutionary act. In recent times the establishment managed to dilute this by buying all of the main parties so that their leaders were interchangeable (CameronCleggBlairism), but at its heart your vote can overthrow governments, transform society and sometimes make or break treaties. Or countries.

In this country we need more democracy. Not less.

TGOHF

Betfair down to 4.6 overnight.

IOS

Southam

It is your belief that Scotland will leave that is helping me cling to the idea of a no vote still!

OblitusSumMe

DavidL said:

So it is finally here. In some ways that is a relief.

Polling station duty at 7.00 so can't dawdle. If we are not there sharp I suspect our boards etc will all have mysteriously disappeared. My polling station is in Lochee which is a relatively poor and run down part of Dundee so it will be interesting to get a feel for what is motivating people there. May be a bit early for some of them of course.

I hope for a good turnout and a decisive result.

Also, I'll bake a Dundee cake.

Carnyx

Good morning! Grey haar just now but a dry if cloudy day forecast in Lothian.

CarlottaVance

Casino_Royale said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

So it is finally here. In some ways that is a relief.

Polling station duty at 7.00 so can't dawdle. If we are not there sharp I suspect our boards etc will all have mysteriously disappeared. My polling station is in Lochee which is a relatively poor and run down part of Dundee so it will be interesting to get a feel for what is motivating people there. May be a bit early for some of them of course.

Best of british luck David. :-)

Seconded. A huge best of British David.

Thirded! Very best of British! Given the news blackout any impressions from the day most interesting!

Paul_Mid_Beds

Innocent_Abroad said:

GeoffM said:

Alanbrooke said:

Get on with it you bunch of prima donnas. 3 years of posturing narcissism finally come to an end.

Calm down Mr Brooke. We'll be doing all this again in 10 years time after a narrow NO.

A NO by less than the number of Sassenachs resident in Scotland, or a YES by fewer than the number of 16- and 17-year-olds on the electoral role is surely going to leave a very bad taste in the mouth, north and south of the border.

I am beginning to wonder about DevoMax All Round, with London split off from England to produce a passably federal state in these islands...

A Yes by the number of EU residents living in Scotland and on the electoral register or by the number of Scots born in Scotland but prevented from voting because they currently live in other parts of the UK would be even more of a disgrace. I still think such a sitation would end in multiple legal challenge. I suspect plenty of people with deep pockets and land interests in Scotland willing to fund such.

Cameron has proved a crap negotiator letting Salmond get away with this and will pay in 2015 in UKIP votes.

numbertwelve

So Andy Murray backs Scottish independence. Hoo boy, you've built yourself a lightning rod there Mr Murray!

OblitusSumMe

SeanT said:

TGOHF said:

Betfair down to 4.6 overnight.

Yes, a sudden sharp move. It was 5.3 about an hour ago. When I woke up, insomniac, and anxious.

*pops diazepam*

Ah well. Only another 36 hours of this torment to go. Then five years of hellish economic chaos, and horrible political cat-fighting, if it's YES.

We'll know one way or another within 24 hours, surely?

CarlottaVance

Innocent_Abroad said:

GeoffM said:

Alanbrooke said:

Get on with it you bunch of prima donnas. 3 years of posturing narcissism finally come to an end.

Calm down Mr Brooke. We'll be doing all this again in 10 years time after a narrow NO.

A NO by less than the number of Sassenachs resident in Scotland, or a YES by fewer than the number of 16- and 17-year-olds on the electoral role is surely going to leave a very bad taste in the mouth, north and south of the border.

No, it will be down to the inability of the respective campaigns to persuade those groups - it's not as though their participation was not known about....

OblitusSumMe

SeanT said:

lol. Betfair moving back up.

Febrile mood swings, like the rest of us.

It did occur to me to wonder whether you're now rich enough to have caused the swings one way and another on Betfair by yourself...?

numbercruncher

Already seeing reports of polling station queues on Twitter, fwiw... I guess the real test will be if there are queues after about 9am...

SouthamObserver

IOS said:

Southam

It is your belief that Scotland will leave that is helping me cling to the idea of a no vote still!

Ha, ha - as I said last night, I have never wanted to be wrong so much; but I have never been so certain I am right. Even when No was 20 points ahead I could only see a Yes win and today I just cannot envisage any other result. The nationalists have brilliantly exploited a Scottish disgust of the Westminster elite that is felt across the UK.

asjohnstone

*** Betting Post ****

Not Scotland, but the polling for the NZ general election on Saturday has started to tighten.

Latest poll shows

NAT 45%(-1), LAB 25%, GRN 12%(-2), NZF 8%(+1), CNS 4.4%, IMP 1.8%, MP 1.6%(+1), ACT 0.6%

That would translate into

Right Block 59 Seats

National 57
ACT 1
UF 1

Left Block 50 Seats
Labour 32
Greens 16
IMP 2

Centre parties 12 Seats
NZF 10 Seats
MP 2 Seats

Depending on overhand, 61 or 62 seats required to take power. Of the centre parties NZF could do anything, I think they'd like to go with Labour, it's leader personally hates the National party leader.

If the CNS don't get 5% to break threshold I think the left can win. I'd say its maybe a 35% chance. You can presently get 6.8 on this on Betfair.

Screaming huge value

asjohnstone

SeanT said:

numbertwelve said:

So Andy Murray backs Scottish independence. Hoo boy, you've built yourself a lightning rod there Mr Murray!

Yes. A rather foolish tweet, if NO wins. Done at 1.03am. If he's in the UK perhaps he'd had a few drams.

Be interesting to see the reaction he now gets at Wimbledon. How can he drape himself in the Union Jack?

Do you think he cares what the plebs of SW1 think ?

Roger

It seems Gordon Brown is the knight on a white charger and Andy Murray wouldn't be bright enough to read the ballot paper if he deigned to live here...

the weather favours NO I'm told

malcolmg

asjohnstone said:

SeanT said:

numbertwelve said:

So Andy Murray backs Scottish independence. Hoo boy, you've built yourself a lightning rod there Mr Murray!

Yes. A rather foolish tweet, if NO wins. Done at 1.03am. If he's in the UK perhaps he'd had a few drams.

Be interesting to see the reaction he now gets at Wimbledon. How can he drape himself in the Union Jack?

Do you think he cares what the plebs of SW1 think ?

Good to see he has shown his colours, as you say GIRUY London.

malcolmg

Roger said:

It seems Gordon Brown is the knight on a white charger and Andy Murray wouldn't be bright enough to read the ballot paper if he deigned to live here...

the weather favours NO I'm told

You must be talking to morons

foxinsoxuk

SeanT said:

lol. Betfair moving back up.

Febrile mood swings, like the rest of us.

Not everyone is having mood swings.

I calmly set my final bets last night.

I will do best with a result like Jacks MCARSE, but covered this early on with 8/1 on 50-55% Yes, so am in the green with most outcomes.

I have a side bet on the Western Isles having the highest Yes, and Shetland having the lowest.

I also have a McSweens haggis and a bottle of Talisker to watch the results with, though have to be at work at 0900.

CarlottaVance

Roger said:

It seems Gordon Brown is the knight on a white charger and Andy Murray wouldn't be bright enough to read the ballot paper if he deigned to live here...

the weather favours NO I'm told

Interesting discussion on Facebook with other expat Scots - all jolly civilised until a resident Scot joined in, suggesting those advocating Yes from the safety of Sydney or Geneva come back to Scotland and pay the tax rises that will follow....

[Deleted User]

I have precisely zero faith in the Westminster elite to do the right thing by England and create a proper FUK. So........sadly.......come on Scotland! Vote YES!

Carnyx

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

GeoffM said:

Alanbrooke said:

Get on with it you bunch of prima donnas. 3 years of posturing narcissism finally come to an end.

Calm down Mr Brooke. We'll be doing all this again in 10 years time after a narrow NO.

A NO by less than the number of Sassenachs resident in Scotland, or a YES by fewer than the number of 16- and 17-year-olds on the electoral role is surely going to leave a very bad taste in the mouth, north and south of the border.

I am beginning to wonder about DevoMax All Round, with London split off from England to produce a passably federal state in these islands...

A Yes by the number of EU residents living in Scotland and on the electoral register or by the number of Scots born in Scotland but prevented from voting because they currently live in other parts of the UK would be even more of a disgrace. I still think such a sitation would end in multiple legal challenge. I suspect plenty of people with deep pockets and land interests in Scotland willing to fund such.

Cameron has proved a crap negotiator letting Salmond get away with this and will pay in 2015 in UKIP votes.

UK and international norms, though. Already been challenged (on the Scots in rUK issue), to no avail.

DavidL

Roger said:

It seems Gordon Brown is the knight on a white charger and Andy Murray wouldn't be bright enough to read the ballot paper if he deigned to live here...

the weather favours NO I'm told

It is drizzling here. Turnout is pretty steady here. In my limited experience busier than a general.

SouthamObserver

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

lol. Betfair moving back up.

Febrile mood swings, like the rest of us.

Not everyone is having mood swings.

I calmly set my final bets last night.

I will do best with a result like Jacks MCARSE, but covered this early on with 8/1 on 50-55% Yes, so am in the green with most outcomes.

I have a side bet on the Western Isles having the highest Yes, and Shetland having the lowest.

I also have a McSweens haggis and a bottle of Talisker to watch the results with, though have to be at work at 0900.

Aren't there rules about doctors staying up all night and drinking 43 proof whisky before going on duty?

Millsy

I can't help thinking the final tally will be even closer than the polls suggest. Voters seem to be less risk-averse than previously and just think "sod it, let's give this independence a go" (or Ukip etc).

peter_from_putney

Factors favouring the No campaign:

Final average poll lead of approx 3%
Shy No factor
Innate desire of voters to be on perceived winning side
No-supporting Oldies more likely to vote than other age groups
Historic tendency of "don't knows" to stay with the status quo, i.e. vote No.
Greater media endorsement than Yes campaign
Late Gordon Brown factor, not fully reflected in polls

Factors favouring the Yes campaign:

Better run and more enthusiastic campaign
Yes side seen to be in the clear ascendancy vs No side's descendancy
Better organised and more energised supporters especially re: GOTV
Once in a generation perception of Scots becoming masters of their own destiny

SouthamObserver

Roger said:

It seems Gordon Brown is the knight on a white charger and Andy Murray wouldn't be bright enough to read the ballot paper if he deigned to live here...

the weather favours NO I'm told

Given how the SNP will implode once their lies are exposed post-independence, whoever leads Scottish Labour into the first GE will be FM. Could that be Brown?

foxinsoxuk

Patrick said:

I have precisely zero faith in the Westminster elite to do the right thing by England and create a proper FUK. So........sadly.......come on Scotland! Vote YES!

There will be much more constitutional clarity with a Yes vote, and devomax is only a stepping stone to full independence.

I too am a Yes, though would have preferred this to have happened without the tissue of lies and bluster by Salmond.

Socrates

Yes or No, I'll be supporting anyone but Murray in the tennis from now on...

MarqueeMark

Greetings form the southern end of the Outer Hebrides. The sun has just crested the mountains on a perfect day - not a sigh of breath, not a ripple on the water.

In the Outer Hebrides.

If you ever needed a sign....this is an unusual day!

Pulpstar

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

It seems Gordon Brown is the knight on a white charger and Andy Murray wouldn't be bright enough to read the ballot paper if he deigned to live here...

the weather favours NO I'm told

Given how the SNP will implode once their lies are exposed post-independence, whoever leads Scottish Labour into the first GE will be FM. Could that be Brown?

The suggestion that Labour will have a Scottish FM if Scotland votes Yes is your funniest yet.

Scrapheap_as_was

Just been down my polling station and no one there.

Typical - I don't get to vote for a tory mp at general elections and don't even get a say on whether scotland should be part of the UK or not.

Such is life in the democratic republic of Bercow-land....

malcolmg

Socrates said:

Yes or No, I'll be supporting anyone but Murray in the tennis from now on...

Typical sad losers, always whining about Scotland supporters but in reality just bigoted erses. Sure he will not miss some sad sack.

MarqueeMark

Labour does seem to have mislaid an awful lot of its voters. I wonder if they will return next May in the event of a No - or if a sizeable chunk are lost for good?

TOPPING

RochdalePioneers said:

Casino_Royale said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Regardless of the result its a festival of democracy. Mass voter registration, mass debate, hopefully mass turnout.

It's not a 'festival' for those having agonising sleepless nights, terrified of losing their country.

This is deadly serious.

Its always deasdly serious. Voting is a revolutionary act. In recent times the establishment managed to dilute this by buying all of the main parties so that their leaders were interchangeable (CameronCleggBlairism), but at its heart your vote can overthrow governments, transform society and sometimes make or break treaties. Or countries.

In this country we need more democracy. Not less.

I once gave both barrels (verbally) to a recipient of some election material after he had called it "junk" or somesuch, reminding him about wars, victories, democracy, etc.

He chased me down the road, more or less, to apologise and agree with me.

Pulpstar

MarqueeMark said:

Greetings form the southern end of the Outer Hebrides. The sun has just crested the mountains on a perfect day - not a sigh of breath, not a ripple on the water.

In the Outer Hebrides.

If you ever needed a sign....this is an unusual day!

Roger said:

Good morning from a rather cold Aberdeen. I'm off to the polling station now to do the exits (?). I've been told to try to look Scottish. Without any red hair dye handy I imagine that just means looking cold. A lot of nervous people around

Gone up specifically for the referendum you two :P ?

foxinsoxuk

SouthamObserver said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

lol. Betfair moving back up.

Febrile mood swings, like the rest of us.

Not everyone is having mood swings.

I calmly set my final bets last night.

I will do best with a result like Jacks MCARSE, but covered this early on with 8/1 on 50-55% Yes, so am in the green with most outcomes.

I have a side bet on the Western Isles having the highest Yes, and Shetland having the lowest.

I also have a McSweens haggis and a bottle of Talisker to watch the results with, though have to be at work at 0900.

Aren't there rules about doctors staying up all night and drinking 43 proof whisky before going on duty?

I shall restrain myself to only a small Talisker! I am not planning an all-nighter, I shall wake early to look at the results on t'internet. I am teaching this Friday.

TOPPING

malcolmg said:

Roger said:

It seems Gordon Brown is the knight on a white charger and Andy Murray wouldn't be bright enough to read the ballot paper if he deigned to live here...

the weather favours NO I'm told

You must be talking to morons

Malcolm.

Huge day for you.

You have my best wishes for it.

SouthamObserver

Pulpstar said:

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

It seems Gordon Brown is the knight on a white charger and Andy Murray wouldn't be bright enough to read the ballot paper if he deigned to live here...

the weather favours NO I'm told

Given how the SNP will implode once their lies are exposed post-independence, whoever leads Scottish Labour into the first GE will be FM. Could that be Brown?

The suggestion that Labour will have a Scottish FM if Scotland votes Yes is your funniest yet.

Let's see, shall we? I believe the SNP has told a series of lies about Scotland's economy, finances, health system, EU membership, oil reserves and much more besides in order to get over the line. Once those are exposed and the reality of independence kicks in I am not sure many Scots voters will be well-disposed towards them. That will probably benefit the current opposition.

TOPPING

Socrates said:

Yes or No, I'll be supporting anyone but Murray in the tennis from now on...

If it'a a No I'll support him; if it's a Yes then good luck to him but he will be a foreigner and I would take the same interest in him as if he came from Cameroon or Canada.

Roger

Carlotta. I was surprised at how quickly the genteel veneer disappeared. And I thought the anger was just on the side of YES .....you were right about Brown. He seems to be everyone's poster boy (the NO people anyway) who'd have thought.....

Scrapheap_as_was

MarqueeMark said:

Labour does seem to have mislaid an awful lot of its voters. I wonder if they will return next May in the event of a No - or if a sizeable chunk are lost for good?

listen to hugh, that's Cameorn's fault because of the full name of the Tory party...

JonnyJimmy

@SeanT‌ Just had a quick scan through the comments on your blog & found this

GraveDave • 19 hours ago
Remember he said he wanted to be PM “Because I think I’d be good at it.”

You'd be good at it Sean. And you'd still be able to write books.
7^ • Reply•Share ›

Sean for PM!! 8 confirmed supporters so far

foxinsoxuk

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

I have precisely zero faith in the Westminster elite to do the right thing by England and create a proper FUK. So........sadly.......come on Scotland! Vote YES!

There will be much more constitutional clarity with a Yes vote, and devomax is only a stepping stone to full independence.

I too am a Yes, though would have preferred this to have happened without the tissue of lies and bluster by Salmond.

How can any sane person HAPPILY seek the economic horror show of Indy is beyond me. Especially if they are English!

I dislike Westminster as much as the next person, and resent the WLQ, but these are minor gripes compared to the national turmoil and impoverishment we face after YES.

Tsk.

The sky will not fall.

malcolmg

TOPPING said:

malcolmg said:

Roger said:

It seems Gordon Brown is the knight on a white charger and Andy Murray wouldn't be bright enough to read the ballot paper if he deigned to live here...

the weather favours NO I'm told

You must be talking to morons

Malcolm.

Huge day for you.

You have my best wishes for it.

Topping , Thank you , huge indeed and will be a long day. Luckily I have lots to do re organising for holidays, hopefully my car fixed , starter died the other day, etc , etc.

malcolmg

TOPPING said:

Socrates said:

Yes or No, I'll be supporting anyone but Murray in the tennis from now on...

If it'a a No I'll support him; if it's a Yes then good luck to him but he will be a foreigner and I would take the same interest in him as if he came from Cameroon or Canada.

Socrates, look at how an intelligent balanced person acts, take note and try to apply to your life. You will be less stressed and angry and enjoy a more fruitful life.

OldKingCole

May have missed this, but is anyone doing an exit poll?

John_M

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

I have precisely zero faith in the Westminster elite to do the right thing by England and create a proper FUK. So........sadly.......come on Scotland! Vote YES!

There will be much more constitutional clarity with a Yes vote, and devomax is only a stepping stone to full independence.

I too am a Yes, though would have preferred this to have happened without the tissue of lies and bluster by Salmond.

How can any sane person HAPPILY seek the economic horror show of Indy is beyond me. Especially if they are English!

I dislike Westminster as much as the next person, and resent the WLQ, but these are minor gripes compared to the national turmoil and impoverishment we face after YES.

Tsk.

The Scottish boil needs to be lanced sooner than later. I don't mean that in a perjorative sense, however it's clear that Scotland will, one day, become independent. Best if it was now, despite the downsides to rUK.

malcolmg

OldKingCole said:

May have missed this, but is anyone doing an exit poll?

Everyone has said Not

TwistedFireStopper

Why would any sane person happily vote for the status quo?

MarqueeMark

Pulpstar said:

MarqueeMark said:

Greetings form the southern end of the Outer Hebrides. The sun has just crested the mountains on a perfect day - not a sigh of breath, not a ripple on the water.

In the Outer Hebrides.

If you ever needed a sign....this is an unusual day!

Roger said:

Good morning from a rather cold Aberdeen. I'm off to the polling station now to do the exits (?). I've been told to try to look Scottish. Without any red hair dye handy I imagine that just means looking cold. A lot of nervous people around

Gone up specifically for the referendum you two :P ?

I never need much of an excuse to come up to the west coast - God's playground. But I did head up a few days early to be here.

The neighbour is one of the Vatersay Boys - if it is a yes, I expect there will be one hell of an impromptu party tomorrow....

dr_spyn

RochdalePioneers said:

Regardless of the result its a festival of democracy. Mass voter registration, mass debate, hopefully mass turnout.

with mass campaigns led by mass debaters.

Socrates

malcolmg said:

Socrates said:

Yes or No, I'll be supporting anyone but Murray in the tennis from now on...

Typical sad losers, always whining about Scotland supporters but in reality just bigoted erses. Sure he will not miss some sad sack.

The man will either be a foreigner or a separatist that wanted to leave my country. Why on Earth would I support him as a countryman. The guy himself said he supports ABE in the football. He must be a bigot too...

malcolmg

John_M said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

I have precisely zero faith in the Westminster elite to do the right thing by England and create a proper FUK. So........sadly.......come on Scotland! Vote YES!

There will be much more constitutional clarity with a Yes vote, and devomax is only a stepping stone to full independence.

I too am a Yes, though would have preferred this to have happened without the tissue of lies and bluster by Salmond.

How can any sane person HAPPILY seek the economic horror show of Indy is beyond me. Especially if they are English!

I dislike Westminster as much as the next person, and resent the WLQ, but these are minor gripes compared to the national turmoil and impoverishment we face after YES.

Tsk.

The Scottish boil needs to be lanced sooner than later. I don't mean that in a perjorative sense, however it's clear that Scotland will, one day, become independent. Best if it was now, despite the downsides to rUK.

Agree NO will be worst possible result and will just mean years of turmoil till it happens. Hopefully it will be a resounding YES today.

[Deleted User]

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

I have precisely zero faith in the Westminster elite to do the right thing by England and create a proper FUK. So........sadly.......come on Scotland! Vote YES!

There will be much more constitutional clarity with a Yes vote, and devomax is only a stepping stone to full independence.

I too am a Yes, though would have preferred this to have happened without the tissue of lies and bluster by Salmond.

How can any sane person HAPPILY seek the economic horror show of Indy is beyond me. Especially if they are English!

Because although Scotland faces a Venezuelan future England does not. The UK will keep its currency, institutions, markets and international memberships. It will also have a more business friendly electorate. I'm sure you are right that there will be some damage for a while - but the UK deficit, for example, will improve if Scotland goes.

The real release will be the changed political dynamic in England. We have the prosepct of a sustained period of 'sound money' governance - thank the lord. It seems incredible to me (a fairly hard nosed pragmatist) that we re-elect Labour governments from time to time to ruin our finances all over again:

As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began.
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire

England is indeed a 'mongrel nation' and socialism is its vomit.

SouthamObserver

TOPPING said:

Socrates said:

Yes or No, I'll be supporting anyone but Murray in the tennis from now on...

If it'a a No I'll support him; if it's a Yes then good luck to him but he will be a foreigner and I would take the same interest in him as if he came from Cameroon or Canada.

He's just a young bloke looking on from afar safe in the knowledge that whatever happens he'll be fine. And he's only expressing what millions of other Scots are thinking. Blame Westminster and the Nats, not them.

dr_spyn

“It would be possible to say without exaggeration that the No leaders were the stupidest men in Britain if we had not frequent occasion to meet the Yes Leaders.”

SouthamObserver

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

I have precisely zero faith in the Westminster elite to do the right thing by England and create a proper FUK. So........sadly.......come on Scotland! Vote YES!

There will be much more constitutional clarity with a Yes vote, and devomax is only a stepping stone to full independence.

I too am a Yes, though would have preferred this to have happened without the tissue of lies and bluster by Salmond.

How can any sane person HAPPILY seek the economic horror show of Indy is beyond me. Especially if they are English!

I dislike Westminster as much as the next person, and resent the WLQ, but these are minor gripes compared to the national turmoil and impoverishment we face after YES.

Tsk.

The sky will not fall.

It will be very uneven pain. Whatever happens in rUK it will be much, much worse in Scotland. The sky never falls, but it can hang heavy for the longest times - especially the further north and west you go.

malcolmg

Socrates said:

malcolmg said:

Socrates said:

Yes or No, I'll be supporting anyone but Murray in the tennis from now on...

Typical sad losers, always whining about Scotland supporters but in reality just bigoted erses. Sure he will not miss some sad sack.

The man will either be a foreigner or a separatist that wanted to leave my country. Why on Earth would I support him as a countryman. The guy himself said he supports ABE in the football. He must be a bigot too...

Chill and just support your own country. Your tone by using "foreigner" "separatist" really shows you up as a bitter and twisted bigot. I presume you would prefer it not to be democratic and have people like you only able to determine Scotland's future.
I feel sorry for you.

TOPPING

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

I have precisely zero faith in the Westminster elite to do the right thing by England and create a proper FUK. So........sadly.......come on Scotland! Vote YES!

There will be much more constitutional clarity with a Yes vote, and devomax is only a stepping stone to full independence.

I too am a Yes, though would have preferred this to have happened without the tissue of lies and bluster by Salmond.

How can any sane person HAPPILY seek the economic horror show of Indy is beyond me. Especially if they are English!

I dislike Westminster as much as the next person, and resent the WLQ, but these are minor gripes compared to the national turmoil and impoverishment we face after YES.

Tsk.

The sky will not fall.

Tremendous value will be destroyed. Borrowing costs will likely rise in both countries; tremendous upheaval will be involved which will leave less to spend on health, infrastructure, education, and so forth.

Now that's all fine and good if everyone voting Yes is aware of it or doesn't care.

My concern is that either through a blinding of science (basis point spread this, LOLR that, etc, etc) or wilful disingenuousness, those or some Yes voters might be unaware of the short- to mid-term upheaval they face and its costs.

MikeK

Good morning. The dice are rolling: will they come up sixes or snake eyes?

TwistedFireStopper

I have never really liked Andy Murray, but he's gone up in my estimation today. It's a brave decision to come out as Yes. Let's hope his fellow Scots can be as brave today.

MikeK

SeanT said:

Meanwhile, mister Farage is whistling, as he shaves. With a badger hair shaving brush.

Why badger? Surely sable!

NickPalmer

Best wishes to all concerned (yes you too Malcolm), especially to DavidL and family for keeping us so vividly informed. Updates during the day would be fascinating. I need to work tomorrow, so my plan is to go to bed early and set the alarm for 4...

Innocent_Abroad said:

And... completely O/T but too good to resist: the Conservative candidate for the Toronto Mayoralty is a Mr John Tory!

I can top that. There's a huge row in Germany over controversial practices in primate experiments in Tuebingen uncovered by my organisation, and I'm trying to get the local Mayor to take a position. He's called...Boris Palmer.

SouthamObserver

dr_spyn said:

“It would be possible to say without exaggeration that the No leaders were the stupidest men in Britain if we had not frequent occasion to meet the Yes Leaders.”

I feel sorry for the Better Together side. The Westminster elite sent them into battle unarmed. They never had a chance.

SquareRoot

malcolmg said:

Socrates said:

malcolmg said:

Socrates said:

Yes or No, I'll be supporting anyone but Murray in the tennis from now on...

Typical sad losers, always whining about Scotland supporters but in reality just bigoted erses. Sure he will not miss some sad sack.

The man will either be a foreigner or a separatist that wanted to leave my country. Why on Earth would I support him as a countryman. The guy himself said he supports ABE in the football. He must be a bigot too...

Chill and just support your own country. Your tone by using "foreigner" "separatist" really shows you up as a bitter and twisted bigot. I presume you would prefer it not to be democratic and have people like you only able to determine Scotland's future.
I feel sorry for you.

"Bitter and twisted bigot".. Let him who is without sin cast the first stone.

Roger

Malc. "You must be talking to morons'

They're angrier than you! Must be a Scottish thing

MarkHopkins

Competition entries are now closed.

Average Yes = 47.92%.

malcolmg

NickPalmer said:

Best wishes to all concerned (yes you too Malcolm), especially to DavidL and family for keeping us so vividly informed. Updates during the day would be fascinating. I need to work tomorrow, so my plan is to go to bed early and set the alarm for 4...

Innocent_Abroad said:

And... completely O/T but too good to resist: the Conservative candidate for the Toronto Mayoralty is a Mr John Tory!

I can top that. There's a huge row in Germany over controversial practices in primate experiments in Tuebingen uncovered by my organisation, and I'm trying to get the local Mayor to take a position. He's called...Boris Palmer.

Cheers Nick , I have been very popular recently , had e-mails from Ed, Gordon , Dougie , Johann all asking me to save them. I of course assured them I would.
None of them were as sincere as yours mind you and explains why they are in trouble.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

A momentous day (and night) ahead for us all.

malcolmg

Roger said:

Malc. "You must be talking to morons'

They're angrier than you! Must be a Scottish thing

LOL, Saor Alba

numbertwelve

TOPPING said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

I have precisely zero faith in the Westminster elite to do the right thing by England and create a proper FUK. So........sadly.......come on Scotland! Vote YES!

There will be much more constitutional clarity with a Yes vote, and devomax is only a stepping stone to full independence.

I too am a Yes, though would have preferred this to have happened without the tissue of lies and bluster by Salmond.

How can any sane person HAPPILY seek the economic horror show of Indy is beyond me. Especially if they are English!

I dislike Westminster as much as the next person, and resent the WLQ, but these are minor gripes compared to the national turmoil and impoverishment we face after YES.

Tsk.

The sky will not fall.

Tremendous value will be destroyed. Borrowing costs will likely rise in both countries; tremendous upheaval will be involved which will leave less to spend on health, infrastructure, education, and so forth.

Now that's all fine and good if everyone voting Yes is aware of it or doesn't care.

My concern is that either through a blinding of science (basis point spread this, LOLR that, etc, etc) or wilful disingenuousness, those or some Yes voters might be unaware of the short- to mid-term upheaval they face and its costs.

Nationalism is often blind. People ride along on the euphoria and the promises of a better tomorrow.

malcolmg

SquareRoot said:

malcolmg said:

Socrates said:

malcolmg said:

Socrates said:

Yes or No, I'll be supporting anyone but Murray in the tennis from now on...

Typical sad losers, always whining about Scotland supporters but in reality just bigoted erses. Sure he will not miss some sad sack.

The man will either be a foreigner or a separatist that wanted to leave my country. Why on Earth would I support him as a countryman. The guy himself said he supports ABE in the football. He must be a bigot too...

Chill and just support your own country. Your tone by using "foreigner" "separatist" really shows you up as a bitter and twisted bigot. I presume you would prefer it not to be democratic and have people like you only able to determine Scotland's future.
I feel sorry for you.

"Bitter and twisted bigot".. Let him who is without sin cast the first stone.

Square, there is the difference, I am very happy for all English people to be fervent supporters of their sports people and national teams. It seems to be an issue for some people in England that people in Scotland are not desperate to support them.
This insecurity is strange and leads to the pathetic comments by the likes of Socrates , bitter and twisted souls who cannot enjoy their life for hating people.

peter_from_putney

MarkHopkins said:

Competition entries are now closed.

Average Yes = 47.92%.

Poll slaves!

Charles

Good morning everyone.

Today is a momentous day!

Royal & Ancient will finally (hopefully) vote YES to women members...

Morris_Dancer

Cheers for running it, Mr. Hopkins. That's almost exactly the most common number in the polling.

Just checked on Twitter to see Murray's comment. No side negativity is undeniable (it's the nature of the beast), but if Scotland votes Yes and gets shafted financially by the markets and businesses moving south Darling et al. will end up looking like Cassandra.

isam

If it's a yes I think Chas and Dave should release a version of "Letter from America"

MarkHopkins

peter_from_putney said:

MarkHopkins said:

Competition entries are now closed.

Average Yes = 47.92%.

Poll slaves!

The range of guesses was from 35% to 66%.

malcolmg

numbertwelve said:

TOPPING said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

I have precisely zero faith in the Westminster elite to do the right thing by England and create a proper FUK. So........sadly.......come on Scotland! Vote YES!

There will be much more constitutional clarity with a Yes vote, and devomax is only a stepping stone to full independence.

I too am a Yes, though would have preferred this to have happened without the tissue of lies and bluster by Salmond.

How can any sane person HAPPILY seek the economic horror show of Indy is beyond me. Especially if they are English!

I dislike Westminster as much as the next person, and resent the WLQ, but these are minor gripes compared to the national turmoil and impoverishment we face after YES.

Tsk.

The sky will not fall.

Tremendous value will be destroyed. Borrowing costs will likely rise in both countries; tremendous upheaval will be involved which will leave less to spend on health, infrastructure, education, and so forth.

Now that's all fine and good if everyone voting Yes is aware of it or doesn't care.

My concern is that either through a blinding of science (basis point spread this, LOLR that, etc, etc) or wilful disingenuousness, those or some Yes voters might be unaware of the short- to mid-term upheaval they face and its costs.

Nationalism is often blind. People ride along on the euphoria and the promises of a better tomorrow.

That is what happens when the elite are greedy and leave too many people with nothing. 5 families in the UK with more wealth than 12 million people and they still clamour for more. When that happens people need some hope and know almost anything will be a better tomorrow.

Innocent_Abroad

Patrick said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

I have precisely zero faith in the Westminster elite to do the right thing by England and create a proper FUK. So........sadly.......come on Scotland! Vote YES!

There will be much more constitutional clarity with a Yes vote, and devomax is only a stepping stone to full independence.

I too am a Yes, though would have preferred this to have happened without the tissue of lies and bluster by Salmond.

How can any sane person HAPPILY seek the economic horror show of Indy is beyond me. Especially if they are English!

Because although Scotland faces a Venezuelan future England does not. The UK will keep its currency, institutions, markets and international memberships. It will also have a more business friendly electorate. I'm sure you are right that there will be some damage for a while - but the UK deficit, for example, will improve if Scotland goes.

The real release will be the changed political dynamic in England. We have the prosepct of a sustained period of 'sound money' governance - thank the lord. It seems incredible to me (a fairly hard nosed pragmatist) that we re-elect Labour governments from time to time to ruin our finances all over again:

As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began.
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire

England is indeed a 'mongrel nation' and socialism is its vomit.

If you think that Labour is or ever has been a socialist Party you need to get out more.

malcolmg

Innocent_Abroad said:

Patrick said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Patrick said:

I have precisely zero faith in the Westminster elite to do the right thing by England and create a proper FUK. So........sadly.......come on Scotland! Vote YES!

There will be much more constitutional clarity with a Yes vote, and devomax is only a stepping stone to full independence.

I too am a Yes, though would have preferred this to have happened without the tissue of lies and bluster by Salmond.

How can any sane person HAPPILY seek the economic horror show of Indy is beyond me. Especially if they are English!

Because although Scotland faces a Venezuelan future England does not. The UK will keep its currency, institutions, markets and international memberships. It will also have a more business friendly electorate. I'm sure you are right that there will be some damage for a while - but the UK deficit, for example, will improve if Scotland goes.

The real release will be the changed political dynamic in England. We have the prosepct of a sustained period of 'sound money' governance - thank the lord. It seems incredible to me (a fairly hard nosed pragmatist) that we re-elect Labour governments from time to time to ruin our finances all over again:

As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began.
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire

England is indeed a 'mongrel nation' and socialism is its vomit.

If you think that Labour is or ever has been a socialist Party you need to get out more.

Most of them are there solely due to the Tories having no openings left.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. G, it doesn't matter how wealthy those at the top are. It matters how wealthy those at the bottom are.

JPJ2

Courageous of Andy Murray to come out for Yes-the negative comments on here by the relatively civilised PBers shows just how courageous! :-)

What pleases me most about that is his reason for doing so-the utter negativity of the No campaign.

Can't see Bill Clinton having as much influence on Scotland as he may have had on Quebec, particularly as many Scots are aware of the support of many US presidents for the independence of the Irish Republic, including Clinton and Obama.

All that said, if it is a No, the issue isn't going away, and if, as I suspect, it is made much more difficult by Westminster for Scotland to have a future referendum, much trouble will be stored up for the future.

As the English genius Shakespeare said:

"If it were done when tis done, then 'twere well
It were done quickly"