Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

It’s just like the 1990s – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2022 in General
It’s just like the 1990s – politicalbetting.com

New YouGov MRP: Tories set to lose 26 of their 64 their Con-Lib Dem battleground seats, including Dominic Raab and Jeremy Hunt's constituencieshttps://t.co/6K1Rb5Lknr pic.twitter.com/6n6uUVC8E6

Read the full story here

«134567

Comments

  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,336
    first among equals?.....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981

    first among equals?.....

    Please, PB is a classy and erudite place, your post should read 'primus inter pares'.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited July 2022
    At the moment if Tory MPs do decide to remove Johnson as Tory MPs failed to remove Major in 1995, then today's ConHome survey has Wallace and then Mordaunt preferred to succeed him

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/03/our-survey-next-tory-leader-wallace-leads-mordaunt-by-two-votes-in-over-seven-hundred/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    Fourth, rate like our dishonest PM
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    I've fallen into a comma.
    It was a harsh sentence.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,336

    first among equals?.....

    Please, PB is a classy and erudite place, your post should read 'primus inter pares'.
    ....what have the Romans ever done for us?....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    HYUFD said:

    At the moment if Tory MPs do decide to remove Johnson as Tory MPs failed to remove Major in 1995, then today's ConHome survey has Wallace and then Mordaunt preferred to succeed him

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/03/our-survey-next-tory-leader-wallace-leads-mordaunt-by-two-votes-in-over-seven-hundred/

    And what will they do differently?
    That is the key question.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,469
    Falling into a 'comma' is just such a so surreal thought. How do you do that?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    "If you have fallen into a comma in 1996 and woken up this week" - would this be an example of punctuated equilibrium?

    Also

    https://www.upi.com/Archives/1995/01/13/UK-poll-Labour-lead-over-Tories-grows/2901789973200/

    in the 1990s Labour had a 44% LEAD over con - a bigger lead than their current voteshare. SKS fans please explain.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,633
    HYUFD said:

    At the moment if Tory MPs do decide to remove Johnson as Tory MPs failed to remove Major in 1995, then today's ConHome survey has Wallace and then Mordaunt preferred to succeed him

    Removing John Major in 1995 wouldn’t have changed the result. The problem for the electorate at large was the behaviour of a large section of Conservative MPs.

    Major pulled them through in 1992.

    The problem is much less the MPs this time round (various scandals accepted) - it is the Prime Minister that is the source of the problem.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    WTF is going on at Wimbledon? Don't they play tennis anymore?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981
    kjh said:

    Falling into a 'comma' is just such a so surreal thought. How do you do that?

    Well I'm a fan of the Oxford comma, perhaps if you think about it too much.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    New. "In hindsight was Britain right or wrong to vote to Leave the EU?"

    Right 42%
    Wrong 58%

    Biggest lead for "wrong" since the 2016 referendum.

    YouGov June 29.
    Don't knows excluded.

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1542945729039278085
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,336
    kjh said:

    Falling into a 'comma' is just such a so surreal thought. How do you do that?

    I remember comma van's, but.....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment if Tory MPs do decide to remove Johnson as Tory MPs failed to remove Major in 1995, then today's ConHome survey has Wallace and then Mordaunt preferred to succeed him

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/03/our-survey-next-tory-leader-wallace-leads-mordaunt-by-two-votes-in-over-seven-hundred/

    And what will they do differently?
    That is the key question.
    Exactly. Where are the ideas? I can't honestly recall a time in politics when all parties seemed so clueless about what the answers were. They can all see the problems but answers come there none.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,469
    HYUFD said:

    At the moment if Tory MPs do decide to remove Johnson as Tory MPs failed to remove Major in 1995, then today's ConHome survey has Wallace and then Mordaunt preferred to succeed him

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/03/our-survey-next-tory-leader-wallace-leads-mordaunt-by-two-votes-in-over-seven-hundred/

    I think the ConHome survey is right. It is my gut feeling, although you never know who might come out of leftfield.

    I think the scenario is different to 1995. Major wasn't the problem, it was the party. Currently Johnson is the problem (although the party isn't helping).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    What is it with men called Boris
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    As a Tory MP said somewhere during this morning’s media round, if every decision is made based on political expediency rather than on trying to do the right thing, sooner or later you will pay for it.

    Separately, I see that Ken Baker has joined the ranks of experienced Tory politicians who have arrived at the conclusion that nothing is going to improve until Johnson is replaced.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,469

    kjh said:

    Falling into a 'comma' is just such a so surreal thought. How do you do that?

    Well I'm a fan of the Oxford comma, perhaps if you think about it too much.
    Ahhhhh you have changed it. You should have left it. It was brilliant. Loved it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,944
    Scott_xP said:

    WTF is going on at Wimbledon? Don't they play tennis anymore?

    Apparently not. There's a chap in the betting shop whose daughter's history teacher played at Wimbledon. Or geography or something.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780

    kjh said:

    Falling into a 'comma' is just such a so surreal thought. How do you do that?

    I remember comma van's, but.....
    Just a weird feeling in your colon perhaps.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,410

    Saw this comment about McKinsey benchmarking:

    'The real trick of McKinsey is being everywhere. If you are a corporate strategist, you can try to do the best you can with what your analysts tell you and your own data. But if you hire McKinsey you are sure their advice will be at least as good as the one they are giving your competitors. Of course they don’t make it obvious. They have internal shielding, privacy protection, the whole shebang. But you might get invited to be part of the benchmark which matters and their internal documentation pulls cleverly from all their cases. It’s subtle but hiring them is the closest you can get to a cartel without crossing the line. That’s why they are so expensive.'

    Would any PBer care to elaborate?

    That’s sounds like the “negative but positive “ pitch that McKinsey and the other big consultancies would like you to believe.

    Personally I think their advice is a bit like AI. Sounds awesome and produces some funky art (PowerPoint) but when you give it a real problem like fully autonomous driving, it fails.

    Their mind set seems to run on tram lines - all about outsourcing, turning your business into a hedge fund that owns IP. Despite that model having failed many, many times. Works for a bit - until you need new IP. And all your knowledge creators have been outsourced…
    Thanks for the info. Have you any companies in mind when you talk of dropping the in house researchers and suffering for it?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    Ach, Jonny Bairstow. Needed quite a few more to get England back into this.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment if Tory MPs do decide to remove Johnson as Tory MPs failed to remove Major in 1995, then today's ConHome survey has Wallace and then Mordaunt preferred to succeed him

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/03/our-survey-next-tory-leader-wallace-leads-mordaunt-by-two-votes-in-over-seven-hundred/

    I think the ConHome survey is right. It is my gut feeling, although you never know who might come out of leftfield.

    I think the scenario is different to 1995. Major wasn't the problem, it was the party. Currently Johnson is the problem (although the party isn't helping).
    Indeed.
    Although the comments of myself and DavidL still stand.
    Replace the PM and you get rid of the most egregious excesses.
    But. What precisely will the new person do exactly about anything? No one has outlined any alternative policies. Including the Opposition.
    So all the basic problems remain.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    Bairstow gone. Big deficit looming.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    dixiedean said:

    But. What precisely will the new person do exactly about anything? No one has outlined any alternative policies. Including the Opposition.
    So all the basic problems remain.

    Tobias Ellwood. Join the single market...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,865
    DavidL said:

    Ach, Jonny Bairstow. Needed quite a few more to get England back into this.

    Not sure we should persist with him. Bit inconsistent.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,316
    Remember when DALLE-2 was terrible at faces? That just changed. It was merely a restraint imposed by the coders

    As of late June 2022, you can’t deepfake pols or celebs but you can create stunning new faces




    https://twitter.com/patrickclair/status/1541650035493859328?s=21&t=lthI2dJ4Zpa1Ky4rf2KVuA

    This technology is world-changing
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment if Tory MPs do decide to remove Johnson as Tory MPs failed to remove Major in 1995, then today's ConHome survey has Wallace and then Mordaunt preferred to succeed him

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/03/our-survey-next-tory-leader-wallace-leads-mordaunt-by-two-votes-in-over-seven-hundred/

    And what will they do differently?
    That is the key question.
    Exactly. Where are the ideas? I can't honestly recall a time in politics when all parties seemed so clueless about what the answers were. They can all see the problems but answers come there none.
    Typically when you enter a period when the mainstream parties all have no solutions to the myriad challenges, things tend to get rather nasty thereafter. Hopefully that won’t be the case this time, but at least I got to such a doom-laden possibility before our Leon did.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,048
    dixiedean said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment if Tory MPs do decide to remove Johnson as Tory MPs failed to remove Major in 1995, then today's ConHome survey has Wallace and then Mordaunt preferred to succeed him

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/03/our-survey-next-tory-leader-wallace-leads-mordaunt-by-two-votes-in-over-seven-hundred/

    I think the ConHome survey is right. It is my gut feeling, although you never know who might come out of leftfield.

    I think the scenario is different to 1995. Major wasn't the problem, it was the party. Currently Johnson is the problem (although the party isn't helping).
    Indeed.
    Although the comments of myself and DavidL still stand.
    Replace the PM and you get rid of the most egregious excesses.
    But. What precisely will the new person do exactly about anything? No one has outlined any alternative policies. Including the Opposition.
    So all the basic problems remain.
    Penny Mordaunt is campaigning for tax cuts.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,865

    dixiedean said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment if Tory MPs do decide to remove Johnson as Tory MPs failed to remove Major in 1995, then today's ConHome survey has Wallace and then Mordaunt preferred to succeed him

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/03/our-survey-next-tory-leader-wallace-leads-mordaunt-by-two-votes-in-over-seven-hundred/

    I think the ConHome survey is right. It is my gut feeling, although you never know who might come out of leftfield.

    I think the scenario is different to 1995. Major wasn't the problem, it was the party. Currently Johnson is the problem (although the party isn't helping).
    Indeed.
    Although the comments of myself and DavidL still stand.
    Replace the PM and you get rid of the most egregious excesses.
    But. What precisely will the new person do exactly about anything? No one has outlined any alternative policies. Including the Opposition.
    So all the basic problems remain.
    Penny Mordaunt is campaigning for tax cuts.
    ie no ideas.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Leon said:

    Remember when DALLE-2 was terrible at faces? That just changed. It was merely a restraint imposed by the coders

    As of late June 2022, you can’t deepfake pols or celebs but you can create stunning new faces




    https://twitter.com/patrickclair/status/1541650035493859328?s=21&t=lthI2dJ4Zpa1Ky4rf2KVuA

    This technology is world-changing

    ThisPersonDoesNotExist existed ages ago.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment if Tory MPs do decide to remove Johnson as Tory MPs failed to remove Major in 1995, then today's ConHome survey has Wallace and then Mordaunt preferred to succeed him

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/03/our-survey-next-tory-leader-wallace-leads-mordaunt-by-two-votes-in-over-seven-hundred/

    And what will they do differently?
    That is the key question.
    Exactly. Where are the ideas? I can't honestly recall a time in politics when all parties seemed so clueless about what the answers were. They can all see the problems but answers come there none.
    Typically when you enter a period when the mainstream parties all have no solutions to the myriad challenges, things tend to get rather nasty thereafter. Hopefully that won’t be the case this time, but at least I got to such a doom-laden possibility before our Leon did.
    I've been forecasting a recession for the second half of this year for a while. We need to pull down demand to reduce inflation. We have a skills shortage. We have not been investing nearly enough. A lot of businesses piled up a lot of debt in the pandemic as well as losing quite a lot of their skilled staff. There are no easy solutions and Boris's boosterism is completely out of tune.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,775
    I think the scenario is much more 1990 than 1995, but the question is whether the election-winning PM will be replaced this time or if the Tories will have a stab at seeing what would have happened at a 1992 GE with Thatcher v Kinnock.

    What's the feeling on that counterfactual? Would Thatcher still have managed to claw things back? Were the British public always going to hesitate to make Kinnock PM? Or was a Tory defeat in 1992 inevitable if they'd kept Thatcher as leader?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    kinabalu said:

    dixiedean said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment if Tory MPs do decide to remove Johnson as Tory MPs failed to remove Major in 1995, then today's ConHome survey has Wallace and then Mordaunt preferred to succeed him

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/03/our-survey-next-tory-leader-wallace-leads-mordaunt-by-two-votes-in-over-seven-hundred/

    I think the ConHome survey is right. It is my gut feeling, although you never know who might come out of leftfield.

    I think the scenario is different to 1995. Major wasn't the problem, it was the party. Currently Johnson is the problem (although the party isn't helping).
    Indeed.
    Although the comments of myself and DavidL still stand.
    Replace the PM and you get rid of the most egregious excesses.
    But. What precisely will the new person do exactly about anything? No one has outlined any alternative policies. Including the Opposition.
    So all the basic problems remain.
    Penny Mordaunt is campaigning for tax cuts.
    ie no ideas.
    Indeed.
    That's hardly radical new thought for a Conservative prospective leader.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,089
    kinabalu said:

    dixiedean said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment if Tory MPs do decide to remove Johnson as Tory MPs failed to remove Major in 1995, then today's ConHome survey has Wallace and then Mordaunt preferred to succeed him

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/03/our-survey-next-tory-leader-wallace-leads-mordaunt-by-two-votes-in-over-seven-hundred/

    I think the ConHome survey is right. It is my gut feeling, although you never know who might come out of leftfield.

    I think the scenario is different to 1995. Major wasn't the problem, it was the party. Currently Johnson is the problem (although the party isn't helping).
    Indeed.
    Although the comments of myself and DavidL still stand.
    Replace the PM and you get rid of the most egregious excesses.
    But. What precisely will the new person do exactly about anything? No one has outlined any alternative policies. Including the Opposition.
    So all the basic problems remain.
    Penny Mordaunt is campaigning for tax cuts.
    ie no ideas.
    More precisely, you only get to advocate for tax cuts if you also explain how they are to be afforded.

    Simply claiming that tax cuts will magically pay for themselves because Laffer Curve doesn't count.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,235

    dixiedean said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment if Tory MPs do decide to remove Johnson as Tory MPs failed to remove Major in 1995, then today's ConHome survey has Wallace and then Mordaunt preferred to succeed him

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/03/our-survey-next-tory-leader-wallace-leads-mordaunt-by-two-votes-in-over-seven-hundred/

    I think the ConHome survey is right. It is my gut feeling, although you never know who might come out of leftfield.

    I think the scenario is different to 1995. Major wasn't the problem, it was the party. Currently Johnson is the problem (although the party isn't helping).
    Indeed.
    Although the comments of myself and DavidL still stand.
    Replace the PM and you get rid of the most egregious excesses.
    But. What precisely will the new person do exactly about anything? No one has outlined any alternative policies. Including the Opposition.
    So all the basic problems remain.
    Penny Mordaunt is campaigning for tax cuts.
    Wow. I mean just wow. Everyone else will be completely blindsided by that one.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842

    I think the scenario is much more 1990 than 1995, but the question is whether the election-winning PM will be replaced this time or if the Tories will have a stab at seeing what would have happened at a 1992 GE with Thatcher v Kinnock.

    What's the feeling on that counterfactual? Would Thatcher still have managed to claw things back? Were the British public always going to hesitate to make Kinnock PM? Or was a Tory defeat in 1992 inevitable if they'd kept Thatcher as leader?

    Hung Parliament I would have guessed. Folk had had their fill of Maggie. Not enough to make Kinnock PM.
    We may well have ended up with Major anyways.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,089
    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1543584802246467585

    As Jim Callaghan well understood in 1978-79, once the chickens start coming home to roost, the sky often gets hellish dark with them. I think the UK's political-economic model (if you can dignify it with that term) is running out of road.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment if Tory MPs do decide to remove Johnson as Tory MPs failed to remove Major in 1995, then today's ConHome survey has Wallace and then Mordaunt preferred to succeed him

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/03/our-survey-next-tory-leader-wallace-leads-mordaunt-by-two-votes-in-over-seven-hundred/

    And what will they do differently?
    That is the key question.
    Exactly. Where are the ideas? I can't honestly recall a time in politics when all parties seemed so clueless about what the answers were. They can all see the problems but answers come there none.
    Typically when you enter a period when the mainstream parties all have no solutions to the myriad challenges, things tend to get rather nasty thereafter. Hopefully that won’t be the case this time, but at least I got to such a doom-laden possibility before our Leon did.
    I've been forecasting a recession for the second half of this year for a while. We need to pull down demand to reduce inflation. We have a skills shortage. We have not been investing nearly enough. A lot of businesses piled up a lot of debt in the pandemic as well as losing quite a lot of their skilled staff. There are no easy solutions and Boris's boosterism is completely out of tune.
    The most striking thing about our politics right now is the breadth of opinion from commentators and active politicians who have all identified that Johnson is utterly and totally unsuited to lead our country through the challenges that lie ahead, coupled with the blind refusal of Tory MPs to face the same reality.

    The only credible explanation is that the MPs have decided that clinging to Johnson for a while longer might allow them to pin on him - when he eventually goes - more of the grim eventualities that will unfold over coming months than would be the case were he were ejected from office now.

    I don’t think this is going to end very well, for them or for us.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    Potts doubles his average.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment if Tory MPs do decide to remove Johnson as Tory MPs failed to remove Major in 1995, then today's ConHome survey has Wallace and then Mordaunt preferred to succeed him

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/03/our-survey-next-tory-leader-wallace-leads-mordaunt-by-two-votes-in-over-seven-hundred/

    And what will they do differently?
    That is the key question.
    Exactly. Where are the ideas? I can't honestly recall a time in politics when all parties seemed so clueless about what the answers were. They can all see the problems but answers come there none.
    Typically when you enter a period when the mainstream parties all have no solutions to the myriad challenges, things tend to get rather nasty thereafter. Hopefully that won’t be the case this time, but at least I got to such a doom-laden possibility before our Leon did.
    I've been forecasting a recession for the second half of this year for a while. We need to pull down demand to reduce inflation. We have a skills shortage. We have not been investing nearly enough. A lot of businesses piled up a lot of debt in the pandemic as well as losing quite a lot of their skilled staff. There are no easy solutions and Boris's boosterism is completely out of tune.
    Someone telling the general public that times are tough and there aren't any easy answers might be a start.
    But it'll probably be tax cuts to pay for themselves as noted.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Leon said:

    Remember when DALLE-2 was terrible at faces? That just changed. It was merely a restraint imposed by the coders

    As of late June 2022, you can’t deepfake pols or celebs but you can create stunning new faces




    https://twitter.com/patrickclair/status/1541650035493859328?s=21&t=lthI2dJ4Zpa1Ky4rf2KVuA

    This technology is world-changing

    I thought they’d held off previously because of the risk of deepfakes etc.

    Have obviously decided there’s no stopping it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    I think the scenario is much more 1990 than 1995, but the question is whether the election-winning PM will be replaced this time or if the Tories will have a stab at seeing what would have happened at a 1992 GE with Thatcher v Kinnock.

    What's the feeling on that counterfactual? Would Thatcher still have managed to claw things back? Were the British public always going to hesitate to make Kinnock PM? Or was a Tory defeat in 1992 inevitable if they'd kept Thatcher as leader?

    It's a very difficult question to answer. What would have happened re Maastricht?

    Given just how badly Major got beat in 1997, I suspect Thatcher would have got a similar result to Major in 1992.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    IanB2 said:

    The most striking thing about our politics right now is the breadth of opinion from commentators and active politicians who have all identified that Johnson is utterly and totally unsuited to lead our country through the challenges that lie ahead, coupled with the blind refusal of Tory MPs to face the same reality.

    The cabinet know he's useless, but he is also their meal ticket.

    Naked self interest is the hallmark of his entire regime.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,806
    Eabhal said:

    Really surprised by Venice. Just coming out the train station was amazing, and it's so much bigger than I expected. Feels like it would take weeks to understand how it all works.

    Not particularly busy either. Nor expensive (took the advice from last night, but only the immediate centre was pricey).

    Made me reflect on Edinburgh and what a rubbish job we've done with it.

    I remember the first time I went to Venice. The greatest joy for me after the initial rush of 'holy cow, this is *really* pretty' was just wandering and wandering and wandering. Every so often coming across yet another pretty square, another delightful little cafe/bar, then onwards down yet more side streets to see what awaited.

    Really is a delightful place.

    I also am very fond of it in the depths of winter. Not sure if it's the place itself or my memories of watching the freezing cold Venice of "Don't Look Now" - but either way, it's a very nice experience.

    (reposted after I dilly-dall-e-d (yes) and didn't notice the new thread)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,591
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment if Tory MPs do decide to remove Johnson as Tory MPs failed to remove Major in 1995, then today's ConHome survey has Wallace and then Mordaunt preferred to succeed him

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/03/our-survey-next-tory-leader-wallace-leads-mordaunt-by-two-votes-in-over-seven-hundred/

    And what will they do differently?
    That is the key question.
    Exactly. Where are the ideas? I can't honestly recall a time in politics when all parties seemed so clueless about what the answers were. They can all see the problems but answers come there none.
    Typically when you enter a period when the mainstream parties all have no solutions to the myriad challenges, things tend to get rather nasty thereafter. Hopefully that won’t be the case this time, but at least I got to such a doom-laden possibility before our Leon did.
    I've been forecasting a recession for the second half of this year for a while. We need to pull down demand to reduce inflation. We have a skills shortage. We have not been investing nearly enough. A lot of businesses piled up a lot of debt in the pandemic as well as losing quite a lot of their skilled staff. There are no easy solutions and Boris's boosterism is completely out of tune.
    The most striking thing about our politics right now is the breadth of opinion from commentators and active politicians who have all identified that Johnson is utterly and totally unsuited to lead our country through the challenges that lie ahead, coupled with the blind refusal of Tory MPs to face the same reality.

    The only credible explanation is that the MPs have decided that clinging to Johnson for a while longer might allow them to pin on him - when he eventually goes - more of the grim eventualities that will unfold over coming months than would be the case were he were ejected from office now.

    I don’t think this is going to end very well, for them or for us.
    At this point, it’s the kind if mad idea that only Dominic Cummings at his maddest might think smart strategy. Or Dominic Raab…. or Michael Gove…. or Rees Mogg… or Nadine…. or

    Ah, I see the problem.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    This innings is going to be finished in a couple of overs. They obviously sent Broad in because he was a calmer head than Potts. What is so wrong playing for Billings?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,775
    DavidL said:

    This innings is going to be finished in a couple of overs. They obviously sent Broad in because he was a calmer head than Potts. What is so wrong playing for Billings?

    The new regime appears to view farming the strike as negative. The bunny at the other end is to be trusted to survive against one of the world's best seam attacks with the aid of a plucky attitude and insouciance.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,775
    Do I have time to check out what the record is for an England tenth wicket partnership before the innings is over?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,591
    edited July 2022
    Haven’t really been keeping up today, but did we note that Craig Whittaker is now denying that he resigned from the government in Feb because of Pincher allegations ?
    https://www.halifaxcourier.co.uk/news/people/calder-valley-mp-craig-whittaker-says-he-resigned-over-health-issues-amid-reports-he-left-because-of-groping-allegations-mp-chris-pincher-3754390

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1543542478057398277
    At the same time as Sarah Dines was appointed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,316
    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Remember when DALLE-2 was terrible at faces? That just changed. It was merely a restraint imposed by the coders

    As of late June 2022, you can’t deepfake pols or celebs but you can create stunning new faces




    https://twitter.com/patrickclair/status/1541650035493859328?s=21&t=lthI2dJ4Zpa1Ky4rf2KVuA

    This technology is world-changing

    ThisPersonDoesNotExist existed ages ago.
    Of course. I used to mess about with it

    But this is more creative by orders of magnitude




  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,316

    Leon said:

    Remember when DALLE-2 was terrible at faces? That just changed. It was merely a restraint imposed by the coders

    As of late June 2022, you can’t deepfake pols or celebs but you can create stunning new faces




    https://twitter.com/patrickclair/status/1541650035493859328?s=21&t=lthI2dJ4Zpa1Ky4rf2KVuA

    This technology is world-changing

    I thought they’d held off previously because of the risk of deepfakes etc.

    Have obviously decided there’s no stopping it.
    You still can’t use real people. But you can create new ones
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Nads is at Silverstone hoping to see the winning goal...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,865
    pigeon said:

    kinabalu said:

    dixiedean said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment if Tory MPs do decide to remove Johnson as Tory MPs failed to remove Major in 1995, then today's ConHome survey has Wallace and then Mordaunt preferred to succeed him

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/03/our-survey-next-tory-leader-wallace-leads-mordaunt-by-two-votes-in-over-seven-hundred/

    I think the ConHome survey is right. It is my gut feeling, although you never know who might come out of leftfield.

    I think the scenario is different to 1995. Major wasn't the problem, it was the party. Currently Johnson is the problem (although the party isn't helping).
    Indeed.
    Although the comments of myself and DavidL still stand.
    Replace the PM and you get rid of the most egregious excesses.
    But. What precisely will the new person do exactly about anything? No one has outlined any alternative policies. Including the Opposition.
    So all the basic problems remain.
    Penny Mordaunt is campaigning for tax cuts.
    ie no ideas.
    More precisely, you only get to advocate for tax cuts if you also explain how they are to be afforded.

    Simply claiming that tax cuts will magically pay for themselves because Laffer Curve doesn't count.
    Plus if cutting taxes - which everyone likes - was the way to sort our problems it would have been done already in a heartbeat. Ditto all other obviously popular choices. Bottom line is there are no big popular affordable doable policies which would materially improve people's lives. However what we can aspire to is ethics and competence in government.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,591
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Remember when DALLE-2 was terrible at faces? That just changed. It was merely a restraint imposed by the coders

    As of late June 2022, you can’t deepfake pols or celebs but you can create stunning new faces




    https://twitter.com/patrickclair/status/1541650035493859328?s=21&t=lthI2dJ4Zpa1Ky4rf2KVuA

    This technology is world-changing

    I thought they’d held off previously because of the risk of deepfakes etc.

    Have obviously decided there’s no stopping it.
    You still can’t use real people. But you can create new ones
    Now I see why you’re a fan. :smile:
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,775

    Do I have time to check out what the record is for an England tenth wicket partnership before the innings is over?

    I do! The record is 198, though that involved Root at one end.

    Anderson has the incentive of reclaiming the record for most career runs by a number 11 to keep him going for a bit.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981
    Can we charge with treason the chap who just murdered the national anthem at Silverstone?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739

    Can we charge with treason the chap who just murdered the national anthem at Silverstone?

    You mean our Eurovision hero?

    Is this a deepfake post?

    What have you done with TSE?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,048
    dixiedean said:

    kinabalu said:

    dixiedean said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment if Tory MPs do decide to remove Johnson as Tory MPs failed to remove Major in 1995, then today's ConHome survey has Wallace and then Mordaunt preferred to succeed him

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/03/our-survey-next-tory-leader-wallace-leads-mordaunt-by-two-votes-in-over-seven-hundred/

    I think the ConHome survey is right. It is my gut feeling, although you never know who might come out of leftfield.

    I think the scenario is different to 1995. Major wasn't the problem, it was the party. Currently Johnson is the problem (although the party isn't helping).
    Indeed.
    Although the comments of myself and DavidL still stand.
    Replace the PM and you get rid of the most egregious excesses.
    But. What precisely will the new person do exactly about anything? No one has outlined any alternative policies. Including the Opposition.
    So all the basic problems remain.
    Penny Mordaunt is campaigning for tax cuts.
    ie no ideas.
    Indeed.
    That's hardly radical new thought for a Conservative prospective leader.
    In the context of the prevailing orthodoxy, it's plenty radical.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780

    DavidL said:

    This innings is going to be finished in a couple of overs. They obviously sent Broad in because he was a calmer head than Potts. What is so wrong playing for Billings?

    The new regime appears to view farming the strike as negative. The bunny at the other end is to be trusted to survive against one of the world's best seam attacks with the aid of a plucky attitude and insouciance.
    So poor Billings, knowing he doesn't have long, has to be reckless. Doesn't really work does it?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981
    Scott_xP said:

    Can we charge with treason the chap who just murdered the national anthem at Silverstone?

    You mean our Eurovision hero?

    Is this a deepfake post?

    What have you done with TSE?
    I've lost my love for Eurovision since they changed the voting system.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,093
    dixiedean said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment if Tory MPs do decide to remove Johnson as Tory MPs failed to remove Major in 1995, then today's ConHome survey has Wallace and then Mordaunt preferred to succeed him

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/03/our-survey-next-tory-leader-wallace-leads-mordaunt-by-two-votes-in-over-seven-hundred/

    I think the ConHome survey is right. It is my gut feeling, although you never know who might come out of leftfield.

    I think the scenario is different to 1995. Major wasn't the problem, it was the party. Currently Johnson is the problem (although the party isn't helping).
    Indeed.
    Although the comments of myself and DavidL still stand.
    Replace the PM and you get rid of the most egregious excesses.
    But. What precisely will the new person do exactly about anything? No one has outlined any alternative policies. Including the Opposition.
    So all the basic problems remain.
    After 2008, some anonymous Belgian(?) said that everyone knows what is needed, nobody knows how to get re-elected after doing that.

    Consumption has got ahead of sustainable production, we need to feel poorer for a bit, simple as. But we're not ready for that message.

    As for the header question-

    Leafy places are vulnerable to the Libs.
    Gritty, studenty places are vulnerable to Lab.

    That leaves Brexity small towns. Kent, Essex, chunks of the Midlands and North East. Tamworth would be OK for the blue team. So would Romford.

    If Farage can reinflate his balloon, those places would be vulnerable, and a Canadian wipeout would be possible. So part of the trap the Conservatives are in is that protecting what's left to them makes them less attractive to the rest of the country.

    Brexity small towns ain't enough.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,775
    edited July 2022
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This innings is going to be finished in a couple of overs. They obviously sent Broad in because he was a calmer head than Potts. What is so wrong playing for Billings?

    The new regime appears to view farming the strike as negative. The bunny at the other end is to be trusted to survive against one of the world's best seam attacks with the aid of a plucky attitude and insouciance.
    So poor Billings, knowing he doesn't have long, has to be reckless. Doesn't really work does it?
    The new regime seem to have done wonders for Bairstow's confidence, and our tail was hardly likely to score many runs regardless, so I'm willing to give the current devil may care approach the benefit of the doubt for now.

    It's been more successful and more fun than what went before.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,245
    What's all this guff got to do with the price of šljivovica in Podgorica?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    edited July 2022

    What's all this guff got to do with the price of šljivovica in Podgorica?

    Used to be known as Teatotallergrad.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    Potts more than a bit unlucky there. It looked like it bounced to me. But given the soft signal....

    Anyway that is not the problem. The problem is that no one other than Bairstow went on at all despite a number of them getting in.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928

    Can we charge with treason the chap who just murdered the national anthem at Silverstone?

    It's NOT a national anthem, it's just the Queen's anthem.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,245

    Can we charge with treason the chap who just murdered the national anthem at Silverstone?

    Homage to Jimi Hendrix?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited July 2022

    dixiedean said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    At the moment if Tory MPs do decide to remove Johnson as Tory MPs failed to remove Major in 1995, then today's ConHome survey has Wallace and then Mordaunt preferred to succeed him

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/03/our-survey-next-tory-leader-wallace-leads-mordaunt-by-two-votes-in-over-seven-hundred/

    I think the ConHome survey is right. It is my gut feeling, although you never know who might come out of leftfield.

    I think the scenario is different to 1995. Major wasn't the problem, it was the party. Currently Johnson is the problem (although the party isn't helping).
    Indeed.
    Although the comments of myself and DavidL still stand.
    Replace the PM and you get rid of the most egregious excesses.
    But. What precisely will the new person do exactly about anything? No one has outlined any alternative policies. Including the Opposition.
    So all the basic problems remain.
    After 2008, some anonymous Belgian(?) said that everyone knows what is needed, nobody knows how to get re-elected after doing that.

    Consumption has got ahead of sustainable production, we need to feel poorer for a bit, simple as. But we're not ready for that message.

    As for the header question-

    Leafy places are vulnerable to the Libs.
    Gritty, studenty places are vulnerable to Lab.

    That leaves Brexity small towns. Kent, Essex, chunks of the Midlands and North East. Tamworth would be OK for the blue team. So would Romford.

    If Farage can reinflate his balloon, those places would be vulnerable, and a Canadian wipeout would be possible. So part of the trap the Conservatives are in is that protecting what's left to them makes them less attractive to the rest of the country.

    Brexity small towns ain't enough.
    That is the current Conservative core, however if Labour win the next general election and become unpopular the Conservative core would expand to the leafy Home counties and suburbs again by default as the main opposition
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited July 2022

    I think the scenario is much more 1990 than 1995, but the question is whether the election-winning PM will be replaced this time or if the Tories will have a stab at seeing what would have happened at a 1992 GE with Thatcher v Kinnock.

    What's the feeling on that counterfactual? Would Thatcher still have managed to claw things back? Were the British public always going to hesitate to make Kinnock PM? Or was a Tory defeat in 1992 inevitable if they'd kept Thatcher as leader?

    Most likely had Thatcher led the Tories in 1992 it would have been a hung parliament with Kinnock Labour most seats
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    edited July 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    WTF is going on at Wimbledon? Don't they play tennis anymore?

    Yes, watching Ostapenko of Latvia v. Maria of Germany.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,245

    What's all this guff got to do with the price of šljivovica in Podgorica?

    Used to be known as Teatotallergrad.
    Did NOT know that Tito was a Hardshell Baptist. Learn something on PB every other post!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    That looked a really bad crash at Silverstone. :(
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    tlg86 said:

    That looked a really bad crash at Silverstone. :(

    They are not playing replays - hope everyone is ok
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981
    tlg86 said:

    That looked a really bad crash at Silverstone. :(

    Yeah, hope the outcome turns out to be like the Grosjean accident.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    Blimey - that is a huge crash. Hope
    Zhou is ok
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Bloody hell this looks serious.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited July 2022
    The 1990s was a period of economic growth, the beginning of a “catch-up” period for the British economy which saw services (but not manufacturing) reach US levels of productivity, GDP per capita surpass European peers, and London taking its place as a global capital (maybe *the* global capital).

    The situation is quite different in 2022.
    British productivity has been stagnant since 2008, and there’s been very little growth in the economy. Productivity is a global issue, but the situation in the UK is the very worst.
    In turn that means less tax take, and less money for public services.

    Economists continue to debate why but the reasons in no particular order are thought to be:

    - Decline of oil output
    - Decline after GFC of financial industry
    - Lack of R&D investment by govt
    - Massive regional imbalance (ie SE v rest)
    - Austerity policy
    - Endemic skill problems in workforce
    - Economic effects of Brexit
    - Housing policy

    I would add the constitutional narcissism of Sindy and Brexit alike which greedily consume the overall political narrative

    Until someone - anyone - in the UK chooses to get real and confront above then Britain will continue to decline and possibly break apart.

    The “good” news is that Britain now starts from quite behind the pack, so there actually is room to catch up.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    MaxPB said:

    Bloody hell this looks serious.

    Apparently an extraction team is working on one of the cars
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    MaxPB said:

    Bloody hell this looks serious.

    You can see Zhou flying through the air in the background. Bloody awful
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 2,722

    Blimey - that is a huge crash. Hope
    Zhou is ok

    I might be wrong but I don't think they've said that
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    The lack of replays is ominous.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981

    MaxPB said:

    Bloody hell this looks serious.

    You can see Zhou flying through the air in the background. Bloody awful
    Yeah, I rewound it, ugh.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,865
    HYUFD said:

    I think the scenario is much more 1990 than 1995, but the question is whether the election-winning PM will be replaced this time or if the Tories will have a stab at seeing what would have happened at a 1992 GE with Thatcher v Kinnock.

    What's the feeling on that counterfactual? Would Thatcher still have managed to claw things back? Were the British public always going to hesitate to make Kinnock PM? Or was a Tory defeat in 1992 inevitable if they'd kept Thatcher as leader?

    Most likely had Thatcher led the Tories in 1992 it would have been a hung parliament with Kinnock Labour most seats
    That might have led to PR.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,245
    Seattle Times ($) - Alaska used-car prices run amok in a ‘ridiculous’ market

    For the second straight year, used-vehicle prices are skyrocketing nationally.

    Among the hardest-hit spots? Alaska. Cars that fetched $15,000 before the pandemic now sell for around $23,000, after Alaska prices spiked more than 50% since 2020, according to federal data.

    The surging costs sharply outpace other commodities amid widespread national inflation. And they’ve turned the Alaska car market upside-down.

    Used vehicles can sell for more today than they did two years ago — unheard-of before the pandemic, sellers say. And with supply low, it can take months to find a car. Many buyers say they’re paying thousands of dollars more than they hoped on high-mileage cars and trucks.

    Barbara and Marty Leichtung flew to Anchorage from Homer, where they live, to find the car they needed, a 2016 Honda CRV they’d found on an earlier trip. They picked it up last week, after Continental Honda needed time to do maintenance work on it.

    The couple paid about $27,000, said Marty Leichtung, a retired North Slope oil field worker.

    The car would have sold for less than $20,000 before the pandemic, a salesman said.

    “That’s a lot of money for a 2016 car, but that’s the market these days,” Leichtung said.

    Auto dealers say the problem is rooted in the limited supply of new cars, underscored by empty showrooms at dealerships.

    Delays in the manufacturing and shipping of microchips and other automotive parts, caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, continue to reduce the availability of new vehicles, they say. That has reduced the number of vehicles that once replenished the used-car market in Alaska.

    SSI - SO how is this gonna impact Sarah Palin's very special election prospects next month?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981
    DavidL said:

    The lack of replays is ominous.

    To be fair they didn't show replays of the Grosjean accident until 15 minutes after it happened.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think the scenario is much more 1990 than 1995, but the question is whether the election-winning PM will be replaced this time or if the Tories will have a stab at seeing what would have happened at a 1992 GE with Thatcher v Kinnock.

    What's the feeling on that counterfactual? Would Thatcher still have managed to claw things back? Were the British public always going to hesitate to make Kinnock PM? Or was a Tory defeat in 1992 inevitable if they'd kept Thatcher as leader?

    Most likely had Thatcher led the Tories in 1992 it would have been a hung parliament with Kinnock Labour most seats
    That might have led to PR.
    In which case Heseltine would probably have succeeded her as Leader of the Opposition
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Sky saying driver is still in the car and an ambulance is on its way
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981
    Fuck, he really was upside down.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981
    edited July 2022
    He's ok.

    Out of the car.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    Wow, those halos are life savers.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Sky

    Driver out of car and is on a stretcher and is ok
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973

    He's ok.

    Out of the car.

    The incident on social media - Russell looks like he pulls over sharply into Zhou, but unsure if Russel was hit from Behind
  • It doesn't matter who the Tories have leading them, the coming recession is going to see them out of office for a generation
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    It doesn't matter who the Tories have leading them, the coming recession is going to see them out of office for a generation

    I am not sure Labour supporters appearing to hope for a recession is a very good look CHB!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    He's ok.

    Out of the car.

    The lack of replays or the lack of them showing the car makes me think that he might not be in a good way. Hope I'm wrong on that.

    This race won't happen if the barriers can't be repaired.
This discussion has been closed.