Categories
It’s just like the 1990s – politicalbetting.com
It’s just like the 1990s – politicalbetting.com
New YouGov MRP: Tories set to lose 26 of their 64 their Con-Lib Dem battleground seats, including Dominic Raab and Jeremy Hunt's constituencieshttps://t.co/6K1Rb5Lknr pic.twitter.com/6n6uUVC8E6
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/03/our-survey-next-tory-leader-wallace-leads-mordaunt-by-two-votes-in-over-seven-hundred/
https://twitter.com/patrickclair/status/1543398538150756352?s=21&t=JglWOmidv01r7cg1N5S_PA
It was a harsh sentence.
That is the key question.
Also
https://www.upi.com/Archives/1995/01/13/UK-poll-Labour-lead-over-Tories-grows/2901789973200/
in the 1990s Labour had a 44% LEAD over con - a bigger lead than their current voteshare. SKS fans please explain.
Major pulled them through in 1992.
The problem is much less the MPs this time round (various scandals accepted) - it is the Prime Minister that is the source of the problem.
Right 42%
Wrong 58%
Biggest lead for "wrong" since the 2016 referendum.
YouGov June 29.
Don't knows excluded.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1542945729039278085
I think the scenario is different to 1995. Major wasn't the problem, it was the party. Currently Johnson is the problem (although the party isn't helping).
Separately, I see that Ken Baker has joined the ranks of experienced Tory politicians who have arrived at the conclusion that nothing is going to improve until Johnson is replaced.
Although the comments of myself and DavidL still stand.
Replace the PM and you get rid of the most egregious excesses.
But. What precisely will the new person do exactly about anything? No one has outlined any alternative policies. Including the Opposition.
So all the basic problems remain.
As of late June 2022, you can’t deepfake pols or celebs but you can create stunning new faces
https://twitter.com/patrickclair/status/1541650035493859328?s=21&t=lthI2dJ4Zpa1Ky4rf2KVuA
This technology is world-changing
What's the feeling on that counterfactual? Would Thatcher still have managed to claw things back? Were the British public always going to hesitate to make Kinnock PM? Or was a Tory defeat in 1992 inevitable if they'd kept Thatcher as leader?
That's hardly radical new thought for a Conservative prospective leader.
Simply claiming that tax cuts will magically pay for themselves because Laffer Curve doesn't count.
We may well have ended up with Major anyways.
As Jim Callaghan well understood in 1978-79, once the chickens start coming home to roost, the sky often gets hellish dark with them. I think the UK's political-economic model (if you can dignify it with that term) is running out of road.
The only credible explanation is that the MPs have decided that clinging to Johnson for a while longer might allow them to pin on him - when he eventually goes - more of the grim eventualities that will unfold over coming months than would be the case were he were ejected from office now.
I don’t think this is going to end very well, for them or for us.
But it'll probably be tax cuts to pay for themselves as noted.
Have obviously decided there’s no stopping it.
Given just how badly Major got beat in 1997, I suspect Thatcher would have got a similar result to Major in 1992.
Naked self interest is the hallmark of his entire regime.
Really is a delightful place.
I also am very fond of it in the depths of winter. Not sure if it's the place itself or my memories of watching the freezing cold Venice of "Don't Look Now" - but either way, it's a very nice experience.
(reposted after I dilly-dall-e-d (yes) and didn't notice the new thread)
Ah, I see the problem.
https://www.halifaxcourier.co.uk/news/people/calder-valley-mp-craig-whittaker-says-he-resigned-over-health-issues-amid-reports-he-left-because-of-groping-allegations-mp-chris-pincher-3754390
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1543542478057398277
At the same time as Sarah Dines was appointed.
But this is more creative by orders of magnitude
Anderson has the incentive of reclaiming the record for most career runs by a number 11 to keep him going for a bit.
Is this a deepfake post?
What have you done with TSE?
Consumption has got ahead of sustainable production, we need to feel poorer for a bit, simple as. But we're not ready for that message.
As for the header question-
Leafy places are vulnerable to the Libs.
Gritty, studenty places are vulnerable to Lab.
That leaves Brexity small towns. Kent, Essex, chunks of the Midlands and North East. Tamworth would be OK for the blue team. So would Romford.
If Farage can reinflate his balloon, those places would be vulnerable, and a Canadian wipeout would be possible. So part of the trap the Conservatives are in is that protecting what's left to them makes them less attractive to the rest of the country.
Brexity small towns ain't enough.
It's been more successful and more fun than what went before.
Anyway that is not the problem. The problem is that no one other than Bairstow went on at all despite a number of them getting in.
Zhou is ok
The situation is quite different in 2022.
British productivity has been stagnant since 2008, and there’s been very little growth in the economy. Productivity is a global issue, but the situation in the UK is the very worst.
In turn that means less tax take, and less money for public services.
Economists continue to debate why but the reasons in no particular order are thought to be:
- Decline of oil output
- Decline after GFC of financial industry
- Lack of R&D investment by govt
- Massive regional imbalance (ie SE v rest)
- Austerity policy
- Endemic skill problems in workforce
- Economic effects of Brexit
- Housing policy
I would add the constitutional narcissism of Sindy and Brexit alike which greedily consume the overall political narrative
Until someone - anyone - in the UK chooses to get real and confront above then Britain will continue to decline and possibly break apart.
The “good” news is that Britain now starts from quite behind the pack, so there actually is room to catch up.
For the second straight year, used-vehicle prices are skyrocketing nationally.
Among the hardest-hit spots? Alaska. Cars that fetched $15,000 before the pandemic now sell for around $23,000, after Alaska prices spiked more than 50% since 2020, according to federal data.
The surging costs sharply outpace other commodities amid widespread national inflation. And they’ve turned the Alaska car market upside-down.
Used vehicles can sell for more today than they did two years ago — unheard-of before the pandemic, sellers say. And with supply low, it can take months to find a car. Many buyers say they’re paying thousands of dollars more than they hoped on high-mileage cars and trucks.
Barbara and Marty Leichtung flew to Anchorage from Homer, where they live, to find the car they needed, a 2016 Honda CRV they’d found on an earlier trip. They picked it up last week, after Continental Honda needed time to do maintenance work on it.
The couple paid about $27,000, said Marty Leichtung, a retired North Slope oil field worker.
The car would have sold for less than $20,000 before the pandemic, a salesman said.
“That’s a lot of money for a 2016 car, but that’s the market these days,” Leichtung said.
Auto dealers say the problem is rooted in the limited supply of new cars, underscored by empty showrooms at dealerships.
Delays in the manufacturing and shipping of microchips and other automotive parts, caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, continue to reduce the availability of new vehicles, they say. That has reduced the number of vehicles that once replenished the used-car market in Alaska.
SSI - SO how is this gonna impact Sarah Palin's very special election prospects next month?
Out of the car.
Driver out of car and is on a stretcher and is ok
This race won't happen if the barriers can't be repaired.