If Remainers had been able to be part of the process then the pressure for “quick wins” (which aren’t wins) might have been reduced and an approach of “this will take time” would be in the UK’s interests.
Brexit is a shitshow.
Not because people who knew it was a shitshow didn't help out.
If Remainers had been able to be part of the process then the pressure for “quick wins” (which aren’t wins) might have been reduced and an approach of “this will take time” would be in the UK’s interests.
Brexit is a shitshow.
Not because people who knew it was a shitshow didn't help out.
@Leon figured it out in 2016 if not 2015 but he is doing a lot of protesting which is wholly understandable. He is of course a remainer. Dare I say a diehard remainer. Cosmopolitan, urban, Camden-urban even, sophisticated, worldly, knaps a mean flint. Of course he is a remainer.
But he is doing a lot of shouting in the forlorn hope that his "Remoaner" schtick will drown out his own inner voices.
It won't.
lol. I'm really NOT any of these things, even if a number of PBers wish to believe the opposite
My vote on the day was knife edge, as I have confessed often enough. In brief I knew Brexit would be bad economically but I also knew that Remaining would be increasingly terrible for our democracy and polity
I'm still quite divided now, but if forced to vote again, I would - just about - vote Leave again. I hate the fucking mess of Brexit, and the way it poisons our debates, I fervently hope we can find someway to restore FoM and the SM (I LIKED FoM, tho I respect the views of those that don't)
But this is the ultimate test: Would I vote Leave again? Ultimately, and with great reluctance, Yes I would. I don't want us to be part of the anti-democratic increasingly Federalised EU
You seem to have forgotten all those posts about 'diamond hard Brexit"...
I refer the Honourable PB-er for Over-Remembering to @LadyG
Most convenient.
Perhaps you can then point us to your posts from that time ?
Hang on though, according to last night's Devon result, the LibDems should be on 50%, with a 38% swing since the last election.
Either that, or mid-term by-elections are utterly meaningless as a guide to the national picture, let alone the next GE result? I know political obsessives have nothing else to talk about in this country until about three months before the next GE, unlike America were there is always an election due, and this is after all a betting site, but the idea that these by-elections say anything meaningful about 2024 is for the birds.
"...the LibDems should be on 50%, with a 38% swing since the last election. Either that, or mid-term by-elections are utterly meaningless as a guide to the national picture..."
Spectacular binarism there!
The position is that the Conservatives are extremely unpopular, but none of the Opposition parties have distinctive profiles to drive anti-Tory voters solely into their camp. Consequently, people are simply voting tactically. It's a curious fact that this actually works better than if one of the parties had either a charismatic leader or a transfer-repellent leader - LibDem voters in Wakefield and Labour voters in T&H are simply shrugging and saying "Why not?"
I think Davey and Starmer are pretty unthreatening to each other’s voters. One thing Johnson has achieved is to bury the memory of the coalition leaving Labour voters more likely to lend the LD’s their votes. LD’s are also more willing to lend Starmer theirs than Corbyn, to put it mildly.
I am still quite nervous of a Labour government, particularly their connection with dinosaur unions, but I find Starmer reasonably unthreatening. If we had a presidential system and it was a choice between him and Johnson, Starmer would get my vote every time
I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .
I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.
Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .
I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .
More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.
It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5 years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.
Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.
If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.
Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.
For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.
You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.
After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.
If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.
Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.
So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.
So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.
You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin
Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason
Surely the onus is on the winners, those who campaigned for it, to make Brexit a success. That is the way these things usually work. You can't expect those that believed (and still believe) that Brexit was a big mistake to pull your chestnuts out of the fire.
So if I interpret you and @Boulay correctly, if Brexit turns out to be an economic failure its going to be because the people who believed it was going to be a failure didn't work hard enough to make a success!
You see? This is why Brexit is more like a religious question than a political/economic question
You're like a weirdly-alive Thomas More in about 1548 saying "So if the Reformation is a failure you want us ex-cardinals to come back and fix it for you? How about No? It was always bound to be a failure, it is evil, and wrong"
We are mid-Reformation. The Catholics are not reconciled. We need a Queen Elizabeth to ascend the throne, burn a few recusants - pour encourager les autres - and then tell the rest of England to move on, without making windows into men's souls
No, that's just the way you prefer to view it. Like most people I am reconciled to the fact that we left but like nearly half the voters I remain convinced it was a grave mistake to do so.
Nothing I have seen so far from this Government of the Brexit' Allstars has caused me to change my view.
No doubt some would wish that the whole Brexit issue would disappear because it is not delivering what it promised.
If Remainers had been able to be part of the process then the pressure for “quick wins” (which aren’t wins) might have been reduced and an approach of “this will take time” would be in the UK’s interests.
Brexit is a shitshow.
Not because people who knew it was a shitshow didn't help out.
@Leon figured it out in 2016 if not 2015 but he is doing a lot of protesting which is wholly understandable. He is of course a remainer. Dare I say a diehard remainer. Cosmopolitan, urban, Camden-urban even, sophisticated, worldly, knaps a mean flint. Of course he is a remainer.
But he is doing a lot of shouting in the forlorn hope that his "Remoaner" schtick will drown out his own inner voices.
It won't.
lol. I'm really NOT any of these things, even if a number of PBers wish to believe the opposite
My vote on the day was knife edge, as I have confessed often enough. In brief I knew Brexit would be bad economically but I also knew that Remaining would be increasingly terrible for our democracy and polity
I'm still quite divided now, but if forced to vote again, I would - just about - vote Leave again. I hate the fucking mess of Brexit, and the way it poisons our debates, I fervently hope we can find someway to restore FoM and the SM (I LIKED FoM, tho I respect the views of those that don't)
But this is the ultimate test: Would I vote Leave again? Ultimately, and with great reluctance, Yes I would. I don't want us to be part of the anti-democratic increasingly Federalised EU
You seem to have forgotten all those posts about 'diamond hard Brexit"...
I refer the Honourable PB-er for Over-Remembering to @LadyG
Most convenient.
Is it doxxing if a user does it to themselves every week?
I thought the Lib Dems attack line which was intended to appeal to farmers in the seat was very good . Not attacking Brexit but the Tories selling farmers down the river with their new and future trade deals.
I think that is the line that Tim Farron has been pushing for some time now. He is now the Lib Dem agriculture spokesman, and he is doing it very well.
It's a big issue in his constituency and in the Lakes more generally. The farmers I know round where I live are livid about what the government is proposing.
If Remainers had been able to be part of the process then the pressure for “quick wins” (which aren’t wins) might have been reduced and an approach of “this will take time” would be in the UK’s interests.
Brexit is a shitshow.
Not because people who knew it was a shitshow didn't help out.
@Leon figured it out in 2016 if not 2015 but he is doing a lot of protesting which is wholly understandable. He is of course a remainer. Dare I say a diehard remainer. Cosmopolitan, urban, Camden-urban even, sophisticated, worldly, knaps a mean flint. Of course he is a remainer.
But he is doing a lot of shouting in the forlorn hope that his "Remoaner" schtick will drown out his own inner voices.
It won't.
lol. I'm really NOT any of these things, even if a number of PBers wish to believe the opposite
My vote on the day was knife edge, as I have confessed often enough. In brief I knew Brexit would be bad economically but I also knew that Remaining would be increasingly terrible for our democracy and polity
I'm still quite divided now, but if forced to vote again, I would - just about - vote Leave again. I hate the fucking mess of Brexit, and the way it poisons our debates, I fervently hope we can find someway to restore FoM and the SM (I LIKED FoM, tho I respect the views of those that don't)
But this is the ultimate test: Would I vote Leave again? Ultimately, and with great reluctance, Yes I would. I don't want us to be part of the anti-democratic increasingly Federalised EU
A bit revisionist to say the least. Any suggestion that a new Govt would rejoin the SM you take as the thin end of the Rejoin wedge. Your attitudes on here, and those of your various other noms de plume, have never been in favour.
Not true.
SeanT once penned a poetic post praising the fantastic joys of being an EU citizen, and sharing in all the great things of the various members. Shame this blog has lost its archive.
Leon's burning heretics metaphor also forgets that the death penalty was LITERALLY DONE to a pro-Remain MP to deliver "death to traitors, freedom for Britain" and it did not discourage others.
If Remainers had been able to be part of the process then the pressure for “quick wins” (which aren’t wins) might have been reduced and an approach of “this will take time” would be in the UK’s interests.
Brexit is a shitshow.
Not because people who knew it was a shitshow didn't help out.
@Leon figured it out in 2016 if not 2015 but he is doing a lot of protesting which is wholly understandable. He is of course a remainer. Dare I say a diehard remainer. Cosmopolitan, urban, Camden-urban even, sophisticated, worldly, knaps a mean flint. Of course he is a remainer.
But he is doing a lot of shouting in the forlorn hope that his "Remoaner" schtick will drown out his own inner voices.
It won't.
lol. I'm really NOT any of these things, even if a number of PBers wish to believe the opposite
My vote on the day was knife edge, as I have confessed often enough. In brief I knew Brexit would be bad economically but I also knew that Remaining would be increasingly terrible for our democracy and polity
I'm still quite divided now, but if forced to vote again, I would - just about - vote Leave again. I hate the fucking mess of Brexit, and the way it poisons our debates, I fervently hope we can find someway to restore FoM and the SM (I LIKED FoM, tho I respect the views of those that don't)
But this is the ultimate test: Would I vote Leave again? Ultimately, and with great reluctance, Yes I would. I don't want us to be part of the anti-democratic increasingly Federalised EU
You seem to have forgotten all those posts about 'diamond hard Brexit"...
I refer the Honourable PB-er for Over-Remembering to @LadyG
Most convenient.
Perhaps you can then point us to your posts from that time ?
I was joking. If you want an answer: any comments I might have made in the years 2016-2020 must be seen in the light of a large proportion of the British elite trying to cancel the referendum vote and thereby explode British democracy
Leavers were, understandably, somewhat enraged, emotional and jittery
And now I must attend to my couriers. If anyone wants a taste of REAL bureaucracy I suggest they try importing and exporting from T'bilsi
eg I have been trying to take collection of some couriered contact lenses for 3 weeks or more. They have been sitting in a T'bilisi office all that time. Now, just as Georgian customs agree to finally release them - the day before I probably leave - they have abruptly informed me that I need a "Georgian taxpayer code" which I get by "applying to the Ministry"
If Remainers had been able to be part of the process then the pressure for “quick wins” (which aren’t wins) might have been reduced and an approach of “this will take time” would be in the UK’s interests.
Brexit is a shitshow.
Not because people who knew it was a shitshow didn't help out.
@Leon figured it out in 2016 if not 2015 but he is doing a lot of protesting which is wholly understandable. He is of course a remainer. Dare I say a diehard remainer. Cosmopolitan, urban, Camden-urban even, sophisticated, worldly, knaps a mean flint. Of course he is a remainer.
But he is doing a lot of shouting in the forlorn hope that his "Remoaner" schtick will drown out his own inner voices.
It won't.
lol. I'm really NOT any of these things, even if a number of PBers wish to believe the opposite
My vote on the day was knife edge, as I have confessed often enough. In brief I knew Brexit would be bad economically but I also knew that Remaining would be increasingly terrible for our democracy and polity
I'm still quite divided now, but if forced to vote again, I would - just about - vote Leave again. I hate the fucking mess of Brexit, and the way it poisons our debates, I fervently hope we can find someway to restore FoM and the SM (I LIKED FoM, tho I respect the views of those that don't)
But this is the ultimate test: Would I vote Leave again? Ultimately, and with great reluctance, Yes I would. I don't want us to be part of the anti-democratic increasingly Federalised EU
A bit revisionist to say the least. Any suggestion that a new Govt would rejoin the SM you take as the thin end of the Rejoin wedge. Your attitudes on here, and those of your various other noms de plume, have never been in favour.
Not true.
SeanT once penned a poetic post praising the fantastic joys of being an EU citizen, and sharing in all the great things of the various members. Shame this blog has lost its archive.
And don't ignore the slow burn effect of the Ukraine crisis.
The EU was born out of a desire to avoid war in Europe and bind together its economies and peoples to make sure this never happened again.
Just when most of us thought this objective overtaken by the passage of time, it has become salient once again.
Hang on though, according to last night's Devon result, the LibDems should be on 50%, with a 38% swing since the last election.
Either that, or mid-term by-elections are utterly meaningless as a guide to the national picture, let alone the next GE result? I know political obsessives have nothing else to talk about in this country until about three months before the next GE, unlike America were there is always an election due, and this is after all a betting site, but the idea that these by-elections say anything meaningful about 2024 is for the birds.
"...the LibDems should be on 50%, with a 38% swing since the last election. Either that, or mid-term by-elections are utterly meaningless as a guide to the national picture..."
Spectacular binarism there!
The position is that the Conservatives are extremely unpopular, but none of the Opposition parties have distinctive profiles to drive anti-Tory voters solely into their camp. Consequently, people are simply voting tactically. It's a curious fact that this actually works better than if one of the parties had either a charismatic leader or a transfer-repellent leader - LibDem voters in Wakefield and Labour voters in T&H are simply shrugging and saying "Why not?"
I think Davey and Starmer are pretty unthreatening to each other’s voters. One thing Johnson has achieved is to bury the memory of the coalition leaving Labour voters more likely to lend the LD’s their votes. LD’s are also more willing to lend Starmer theirs than Corbyn, to put it mildly.
I am still quite nervous of a Labour government, particularly their connection with dinosaur unions, but I find Starmer reasonably unthreatening. If we had a presidential system and it was a choice between him and Johnson, Starmer would get my vote every time
Why shouldn’t dinosaurs form unions? People watch the Jurassic World films and they presume the dinosaur stars have a life of glamour, but they work damn hard in those roles, and most of the union members are just extras on minimum wage. Dinosaurs have had a pretty rough last 65 million years and I think we should defend their right to unionise.
I, apparently the lone crank banging on about Brexit and the EU, have had enough of you guys banging on about Brexit and the EU, and I will Brexit this debate and LEAVE you to it
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 1h Dowden's resignation is a disaster for the Prime Minister. His letter stresses loyalty to the Conservative party, not to Boris Johnson. Dowden has a lot of friends across the Tory party. With Sunak he backed Boris early in 2019 leadership race. Now he is on the backbenches.
Conservatives are toast at the next election whoever is leader in the same way Biden will likely be toast In fact conditions may get so bad this may be the last ever tory majority govt
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 1h Dowden's resignation is a disaster for the Prime Minister. His letter stresses loyalty to the Conservative party, not to Boris Johnson. Dowden has a lot of friends across the Tory party. With Sunak he backed Boris early in 2019 leadership race. Now he is on the backbenches.
Conservatives are toast at the next election whoever is leader in the same way Biden will likely be toast In fact conditions may get so bad this may be the last ever tory majority govt
Hmm I think it's still rescuable. Just not with Boris in charge. Every day they don't act means I'll more likely be wrong though.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 1h Dowden's resignation is a disaster for the Prime Minister. His letter stresses loyalty to the Conservative party, not to Boris Johnson. Dowden has a lot of friends across the Tory party. With Sunak he backed Boris early in 2019 leadership race. Now he is on the backbenches.
Conservatives are toast at the next election whoever is leader in the same way Biden will likely be toast In fact conditions may get so bad this may be the last ever tory majority govt
Hmm I think it's still rescuable. Just not with Boris in charge. Every day they don't act means I'll more likely be wrong though.
is it though? They've been in Government a long time and CoL and the economy are in a hole.
If it was Labour in power right now we'd be counting down the days.
Some spicy reaction from Conservative MPs over today’s by election results…
One says: ‘If I was a red wall mp I would be looking for a new job not f***ing around in Parliament.’
Another: ‘The PM is being kept in place by a coalition of 1) MPs who have decided they will lose their seat in 2024 whatever happens and they want to be a Minister for whatever short time they have left and 2) the incurably stupid who still think the PM is a vote winner’
I, apparently the lone crank banging on about Brexit and the EU, have had enough of you guys banging on about Brexit and the EU, and I will Brexit this debate and LEAVE you to it
Some spicy reaction from Conservative MPs over today’s by election results…
One says: ‘If I was a red wall mp I would be looking for a new job not f***ing around in Parliament.’
Another: ‘The PM is being kept in place by a coalition of 1) MPs who have decided they will lose their seat in 2024 whatever happens and they want to be a Minister for whatever short time they have left and 2) the incurably stupid who still think the PM is a vote winner’
Finkelstein: "But in the end the right way to look at them is the simplest way. They seem like a disaster for the Tories, because they are."
"The gravity of Dowden’s decision may not be grasped by people only knowing him as a frontline figure. His real importance is behind the scenes. "
"In any election two things above all determine the general swing — leadership approval and views of the economy. And the by-elections did nothing more — but, it is vital to understand, also nothing less — than indicate that these are running strongly against the government."
"What would you say if you were the Conservative spokesman asked to explain today’s by-election results? You’d try: “Governing parties lose by-elections all the time, before going on to win the following general election”. It’s an obvious answer, and it’s right as far as it goes. But governing parties also lose by-elections before going on to lose the following general election."
Hang on though, according to last night's Devon result, the LibDems should be on 50%, with a 38% swing since the last election.
Either that, or mid-term by-elections are utterly meaningless as a guide to the national picture, let alone the next GE result? I know political obsessives have nothing else to talk about in this country until about three months before the next GE, unlike America were there is always an election due, and this is after all a betting site, but the idea that these by-elections say anything meaningful about 2024 is for the birds.
"...the LibDems should be on 50%, with a 38% swing since the last election. Either that, or mid-term by-elections are utterly meaningless as a guide to the national picture..."
Spectacular binarism there!
The position is that the Conservatives are extremely unpopular, but none of the Opposition parties have distinctive profiles to drive anti-Tory voters solely into their camp. Consequently, people are simply voting tactically. It's a curious fact that this actually works better than if one of the parties had either a charismatic leader or a transfer-repellent leader - LibDem voters in Wakefield and Labour voters in T&H are simply shrugging and saying "Why not?"
I think Davey and Starmer are pretty unthreatening to each other’s voters. One thing Johnson has achieved is to bury the memory of the coalition leaving Labour voters more likely to lend the LD’s their votes. LD’s are also more willing to lend Starmer theirs than Corbyn, to put it mildly.
I am still quite nervous of a Labour government, particularly their connection with dinosaur unions, but I find Starmer reasonably unthreatening. If we had a presidential system and it was a choice between him and Johnson, Starmer would get my vote every time
I’ve been an employment lawyer for about 21 years, I decided to take it up in the early years of the Blair government who were setting about putting all sorts of fancy new laws on the books, it was an exciting time. I remember being told that with Labour in power I would have lots of union disputes to deal with. Since then not one, nothing, nada. If I was presented with one now I’d have little idea where to start. Collective bargaining law is a niche, and ultimately, badly paid area of law. There’s not much of it going about. Rail strikes are newsworthy because strike action is so comparatively rare. Unions are a wedge bogeyman, like CRT.
I actually weigh significantly less when I was around 14-15. Then I was about 6st 7lbs, which is thin enough to touch one's spine through the stomach (ill-advised, though, as it causes a massive retching reflex).
Understand Durham Police won't be making any Beergate updates today. Keir Starmer and Angela are Rayner expected to learn of their fate first week of July.
I didn't like some, say there would be a result today.
I think frankly if we are to be honest unless the economy improves the Tories are finished. It is doing for them as it did for Labour.
George Osborne said it best: "if the economy fails on your watch, basically your time is up"
I think the second half of 2023 will be better than the first half but it depends how many people are going to be seriously hurt in H2 of this year and H1 of next. My current guess is that it will be too many for the Tories to get a majority again.
The secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council at the time, Oleksandr Turchynov, said the two blasts in March and September 2017 ruined “an enormous amount of ammunition” and represented the biggest blow to Ukraine’s defense capability since the start of the conflict with Russia....
I think remainers/re-joiners realise they made a strategic blunder in not backing May's Deal and then going for a People's Vote. They realise they need to play the long game now, and will seek to gradually exert pressure on Labour in the same way as the ERG, UKIP etc... did on the Conservative Party. I think their roadmap to re-joining probably is something like the following: -2024: Boris/this version of the Conservative Party is dumped out of office, replaced by a Labour government (possibly with Lib Dem C&S) -2028/29: Labour announce in their manifesto leading up to the election that they will seek to re-join the EEA, but would utilise an emergency brake on free movement as specified in the EEA Treaty -2035: After a few years back in the single market, re-joiners say we might as well rejoin the EU given how integrated we are now with it economically. They exert pressure on the government for a referendum. Of course, for this to work, re-joiners would need Labour to win the next three general elections.
Who did Tories defect to in 2019, abandoning TMay? The diehard CHUKs? Er, no it was The Brexit Party under N Farage.
I'm not sure I get your point. If anything, it backs up what I'm saying... that those who are either very committed to Brexit/re-joining the EU can exert influence on the main political parties to get what they want. For leavers, that's threatening to vote for UKIP, the Brexit Party/Reform etc. rather than the Tories to put pressure on them. While for remainers, that's threatening to vote for the Lib Dems, Greens etc. rather than Labour. Re-joiners, however, realise that for a Labour government (which could deliver a referendum) to come to power it needs a reasonable number of leavers to vote for it. Hence, why they aren't putting pressure on Labour now, but will do once enough time has elapsed since the 2016 referendum and subsequent Brexit wars. Nick Palmer's earlier in this thread suggests this likely is the thinking of committed pro-EU people within Labour,
Some spicy reaction from Conservative MPs over today’s by election results…
One says: ‘If I was a red wall mp I would be looking for a new job not f***ing around in Parliament.’
Another: ‘The PM is being kept in place by a coalition of 1) MPs who have decided they will lose their seat in 2024 whatever happens and they want to be a Minister for whatever short time they have left and 2) the incurably stupid who still think the PM is a vote winner’ https://twitter.com/wizbates/status/1540262992876605440
If Remainers had been able to be part of the process then the pressure for “quick wins” (which aren’t wins) might have been reduced and an approach of “this will take time” would be in the UK’s interests.
Brexit is a shitshow.
Not because people who knew it was a shitshow didn't help out.
@Leon figured it out in 2016 if not 2015 but he is doing a lot of protesting which is wholly understandable. He is of course a remainer. Dare I say a diehard remainer. Cosmopolitan, urban, Camden-urban even, sophisticated, worldly, knaps a mean flint. Of course he is a remainer.
But he is doing a lot of shouting in the forlorn hope that his "Remoaner" schtick will drown out his own inner voices.
It won't.
lol. I'm really NOT any of these things, even if a number of PBers wish to believe the opposite
My vote on the day was knife edge, as I have confessed often enough. In brief I knew Brexit would be bad economically but I also knew that Remaining would be increasingly terrible for our democracy and polity
I'm still quite divided now, but if forced to vote again, I would - just about - vote Leave again. I hate the fucking mess of Brexit, and the way it poisons our debates, I fervently hope we can find someway to restore FoM and the SM (I LIKED FoM, tho I respect the views of those that don't)
But this is the ultimate test: Would I vote Leave again? Ultimately, and with great reluctance, Yes I would. I don't want us to be part of the anti-democratic increasingly Federalised EU
A bit revisionist to say the least. Any suggestion that a new Govt would rejoin the SM you take as the thin end of the Rejoin wedge. Your attitudes on here, and those of your various other noms de plume, have never been in favour.
Not true.
SeanT once penned a poetic post praising the fantastic joys of being an EU citizen, and sharing in all the great things of the various members. Shame this blog has lost its archive.
And don't ignore the slow burn effect of the Ukraine crisis.
The EU was born out of a desire to avoid war in Europe and bind together its economies and peoples to make sure this never happened again.
Just when most of us thought this objective overtaken by the passage of time, it has become salient once again.
No it hasn't because that binding together in the present context would require Russia to be an EU member. And in so far that the leaders of Germany etc have been happy to bind its economy to Russian raw materials, it has in fact weakened not enhanced German security, and undermined collective action being taken against Russia on sanctions.
I, apparently the lone crank banging on about Brexit and the EU, have had enough of you guys banging on about Brexit and the EU, and I will Brexit this debate and LEAVE you to it
Keep us posted from your next stop. Have you yet decided where it's to be ?
I think frankly if we are to be honest unless the economy improves the Tories are finished. It is doing for them as it did for Labour.
George Osborne said it best: "if the economy fails on your watch, basically your time is up"
I agree. Tories need to be planning for and aiming for as narrow a defeat as possible to hamstring Labour snd ensure we only suffer one term of their incompetence. That means going early after getting rid of Johnson imo. Go long and they will have a mountain to climb to get back.
Some spicy reaction from Conservative MPs over today’s by election results…
One says: ‘If I was a red wall mp I would be looking for a new job not f***ing around in Parliament.’
Another: ‘The PM is being kept in place by a coalition of 1) MPs who have decided they will lose their seat in 2024 whatever happens and they want to be a Minister for whatever short time they have left and 2) the incurably stupid who still think the PM is a vote winner’ https://twitter.com/wizbates/status/1540262992876605440
Why don't you try looking two posts up rather than just re-posting my posts over and over?
I think frankly if we are to be honest unless the economy improves the Tories are finished. It is doing for them as it did for Labour.
George Osborne said it best: "if the economy fails on your watch, basically your time is up"
I agree. Tories need to be planning for and aiming for as narrow a defeat as possible to hamstring Labour snd ensure we only suffer one term of their incompetence. That means going early after getting rid of Johnson imo. Go long and they will have a mountain to climb to get back.
I think it's unlikely the Tories make it back in one term unless it's a very hung Parliament.
I think Labour/LD would be a strong Government tbh
Understand Durham Police won't be making any Beergate updates today. Keir Starmer and Angela are Rayner expected to learn of their fate first week of July.
I didn't like some, say there would be a result today.
Hmm. I note that it is from The Baroness Davidson of Lundin Links.
2011 - elected MSP - but by virtue of being selected as a Tory candidate for the regional list, where a seat was prettu much guaranteed once the Tory in front of her had to withdraw his candidacy 2016 - elected MSP on the (to her credit) the constitency side, leading her party to do a lot better than before - but relying heavily on the list seats 2018 - most certainly not elected to the peerage.
But, equally, she is not saying she is the one ...
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 · 1h Dowden's resignation is a disaster for the Prime Minister. His letter stresses loyalty to the Conservative party, not to Boris Johnson. Dowden has a lot of friends across the Tory party. With Sunak he backed Boris early in 2019 leadership race. Now he is on the backbenches.
Conservatives are toast at the next election whoever is leader in the same way Biden will likely be toast In fact conditions may get so bad this may be the last ever tory majority govt
Hmm I think it's still rescuable. Just not with Boris in charge. Every day they don't act means I'll more likely be wrong though.
is it though? They've been in Government a long time and CoL and the economy are in a hole.
If it was Labour in power right now we'd be counting down the days.
I don't know. I think it's possible that if Labour had managed to oust Brown prior to 2010 and replaced him with someone else (e.g. David Miliband) they could have won enough seats to remain in office (either through a threadbare majority or largest party in a hung parliament). I think the same applies here. Replace Johnson with Mordaunt and I'd actually be fairly nervous.
I think frankly if we are to be honest unless the economy improves the Tories are finished. It is doing for them as it did for Labour.
George Osborne said it best: "if the economy fails on your watch, basically your time is up"
I agree. Tories need to be planning for and aiming for as narrow a defeat as possible to hamstring Labour snd ensure we only suffer one term of their incompetence. That means going early after getting rid of Johnson imo. Go long and they will have a mountain to climb to get back.
I think it's unlikely the Tories make it back in one term unless it's a very hung Parliament.
I think Labour/LD would be a strong Government tbh
Thats why i said 'as narrow a defeat as possible' Saddle Starmer with having to beg round for votes, hobbling on with a weak administration and no real mandate. Labour would be despised again in short order
Raab's message - the electorate giving us a shoeing is a 'distraction'.
Raab is as thick as mince and his Bill of Rights is one of the worst and most malicious pieces of proposed legislation around. I would write about it but why bother - the usual suspects will come on to display their ignorance and everyone else will ignore it.
It is certainly a distraction from good governance. But what would Raab know about that.
A senior Tory tells me this morning the by-election results are "horrific" for @BorisJohnson & the PM's now on borrowed time: "Oliver’s words will resound throughout the party. I think the PM survives till the standards report"
...Source close to PM tells me only found out Oliver Dowden resigning after his 6am (5am UK time) morning swim. Pair had short call before letter sent. PM suprised and wasn't expecting it 1/...
PM partly surprised because Dowden had prepared PM for PMQs on Weds and said he expected to lost the by-elections, so didn't expect him to resign. A source close to PM tells me its "not helpful" and what comes next? https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1540246586361520129
My 'out before conference' bet is looking considerably more healthy than it did yesterday/
I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts
Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now
Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry
And if, in the process, the Tory core has to put up with some social liberalism that it finds distasteful, then tough. If it should come to pass, a heavy Conservative defeat at the next election that allows this to happen will be as much a monument to their greed as it will be to Johnson's self-absorption and venality.
Wokeness is not “social liberalism”, it is much more sinister than that
I entirely agree with you on the predatory pensioners. We need a government for the young
Unfortunately I don’t think Starmer’s Labour is it. They are as clueless - policy wise - as the Tories.
But then, looking at the headlines in today’s FT, with emergencies across the world from humble Sri Lanka to mighty America, with the EU warning of “terrible splits” in the bloc as Russia shuts off the gas, I wonder if any politician anywhere has even a vague idea how to handle what’s coming our way
Brace
I really hate the way particular groups are described in offensive ways - "feckless young", "predatory pensioners" etc. This sort of tribal culture war language will do nothing to repair society.
The current Tory party is exhausted and out of good ideas. Boris is a disgrace to his office and his government is degrading our democracy. His MPs should grow a spine, throw him out and start the process of rebuilding a Tory party that does not shame Britain. I doubt they will. But it is what they ought to do.if they don't the Tories will be out of power for a long time which will lead to the same problems with Labour. Parties that stay in power for too long become a menace.
We need policies for the hard-working of all ages, the young and those who are poor and just about managing. We need proper housebuilding, to do something about the grotesque interest rates on student loans and the absurd obstacles we have put in the way of those who try to export. We need proper investment in infrastructure in all parts of the country and we need to repair relations with our nearest neighbours.
We do not need more constitutional jiggery-pokery.
What we need above all is a government which explains clearly that times are going to be hard for the next few years as we deal with the consequences of Brexit, Covid and world instabilities so that all of us will have to tighten our belts but that this will need to be done fairly. No-one will be immune but we will try our damndest to make sure that those with the greatest wealth pay their fair share. For a start, NI on everyone who works, no matter what their age , rises in pensions should be no higher than what is offered to other public sector workers and council tax bands above the current highest levels to capture the increase in house values in recent years. I'd hugely increase the amount non-doms have to pay for their status as well and limit the amount rich people can give to charities and claim back from their tax as well.
Others will have other policies but they need to be presented as part of a narrative which explains that the next few years will be tough and that no-one will be exempt. Labour and the Lib Dems are still proposing to do something for the WASPI women, for instance - who have no legal case and are about as undeserving a group as you could find. This idea that you can throw sweeties at your favoured groups needs to be quashed.
We have to think hard about how we are going to earn our living and start doing it. For all of Labour's success so far I am not at all sure that there is much of a narrative from them on this. And if they don't develop one - with the policies to match and the steel to resist all the many claims made on them - they will end up being buffeted by events when in power.
The problem with this is that the pensioners are leeching from younger generations through rent and imposing huge pension rises on working age people, either via the state pension or RPI increases on final salary schemes that are paid for by current employees of companies. A tax on higher earning pensioners and clawbacks of the state pension would allow for taxes to be cut for working age people but Labour are simply too weak to pursue this policy.
Younger generations pointing out, fairly, that pensioners are predatory and thieving from younger generations to fund their retirements. Making it prohibitively expensive to own additional properties is the best way to solve this as it frees up millions of houses for purchase by young people who are currently priced out of the market by landlords and second home owners.
You want everyone to "get along" but while older generations are monopolising wealth and prosperity I see no reason for young people to be part of this grand bargain of "getting along" for the sake of it. It's up to older people to realise their selfishness is the cause of friction between the generations, they are leeching from their children and grandchildren yet want all of us to play nice because their parents made sacrifices while they made none.
Some spicy reaction from Conservative MPs over today’s by election results…
One says: ‘If I was a red wall mp I would be looking for a new job not f***ing around in Parliament.’
Another: ‘The PM is being kept in place by a coalition of 1) MPs who have decided they will lose their seat in 2024 whatever happens and they want to be a Minister for whatever short time they have left and 2) the incurably stupid who still think the PM is a vote winner’
A senior Tory tells me this morning the by-election results are "horrific" for @BorisJohnson & the PM's now on borrowed time: "Oliver’s words will resound throughout the party. I think the PM survives till the standards report"
You might not like this but Labour are right on this - the best strategy for Labour to pursue is one where they avoid Brexit & focus on rebuilding society, the economy & our democratic institutions.
The question I would like someone in Labour to answer is this. How do they propose to rebuild the economy without addressing the harm which Brexit has done to it?
Avoiding Brexit but claiming that they can repair the economy without addressing its effects on the economy is as dishonest in its way as all the guff the Tories spout about the advantages of Brexit.
...Source close to PM tells me only found out Oliver Dowden resigning after his 6am (5am UK time) morning swim. Pair had short call before letter sent. PM suprised and wasn't expecting it 1/...
PM partly surprised because Dowden had prepared PM for PMQs on Weds and said he expected to lost the by-elections, so didn't expect him to resign. A source close to PM tells me its "not helpful" and what comes next? https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1540246586361520129
My 'out before conference' bet is looking considerably more healthy than it did yesterday/
Hmm. I note that it is from The Baroness Davidson of Lundin Links.
2011 - elected MSP - but by virtue of being selected as a Tory candidate for the regional list, where a seat was prettu much guaranteed once the Tory in front of her had to withdraw his candidacy 2016 - elected MSP on the (to her credit) the constitency side, leading her party to do a lot better than before - but relying heavily on the list seats 2018 - most certainly not elected to the peerage.
But, equally, she is not saying she is the one ...
She has stood, designed, run and executed campaigns good and bad. That’s the point of her post. She was not making any great claims of success.
Nick Robinson's 08:10 R4 interview with Raab was good this morning.
Raab: We must get rid of distraction, eg partygate. NR: Isn't Boris Johnson the distraction, eg partygate. Raab: we are delivering our policies, etc, etc
Also apropos of some tweets this morning about Cons MPs being dead men walking - NR specifically reminded Raab that his own constituency was a marginal and he would likely lose his seat at the next GE.
Hang on though, according to last night's Devon result, the LibDems should be on 50%, with a 38% swing since the last election.
Either that, or mid-term by-elections are utterly meaningless as a guide to the national picture, let alone the next GE result? I know political obsessives have nothing else to talk about in this country until about three months before the next GE, unlike America were there is always an election due, and this is after all a betting site, but the idea that these by-elections say anything meaningful about 2024 is for the birds.
I dont think that's quite right. Obviously by elections are not meaningful in the sense their result will be replicated, we know governments historically generally lose their defences.
But the scale of loss and the context in which it took place, both in polling or direction of travel, means the results of by elections are not therefore entirely meaningless either. If the Tories had won one or both that would not have been meaningless.
The Tories still have a decent shot, it's a big majority to defend and national polling is not horrendous for this point. But losses clump up, and big ones are notable, especially if an extended period of hard times might set a long term narrative for the government.
They need to work hard and do more than throw red meat to their base to be confident of retaining power. For now they rightly will be less confident.
I think that's a very fair and balanced comment.
The other point is that, while they mean nothing in themselves when the government has a large majority, they can prod parties to do things like change policies or leaders that they wouldn't otherwise do, and that could have an effect at the next GE.
The secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council at the time, Oleksandr Turchynov, said the two blasts in March and September 2017 ruined “an enormous amount of ammunition” and represented the biggest blow to Ukraine’s defense capability since the start of the conflict with Russia....
Also, of course, evidence that the invasion was planned for quite some time.
Raab's message - the electorate giving us a shoeing is a 'distraction'.
Raab is as thick as mince and his Bill of Rights is one of the worst and most malicious pieces of proposed legislation around. I would write about it but why bother - the usual suspects will come on to display their ignorance and everyone else will ignore it.
It is certainly a distraction from good governance. But what would Raab know about that.
I 'liked' this but I don't think Raab is 'simply' thick; I think he's evil too!
Raab's message - the electorate giving us a shoeing is a 'distraction'.
Raab is as thick as mince and his Bill of Rights is one of the worst and most malicious pieces of proposed legislation around. I would write about it but why bother - the usual suspects will come on to display their ignorance and everyone else will ignore it.
It is certainly a distraction from good governance. But what would Raab know about that.
The bill was the example Raab gave when talking about "getting on with governing", God help us.
FWIW, I would welcome a piece on it, as it matters, whatever 'the usual suspects' have to say.
Benchmark natural gas prices for Europe are likely to mark their second consecutive week of advances as Russia’s supply cuts rattle markets.
Bloomberg reports:
Benchmark futures slipped Friday but still are about 12pc higher this week. The crisis is centered around European powerhouse Germany, which moved to the second-highest phase of an emergency plan and warned the cuts could trigger a Lehman Brothers-like collapse of the energy market.
In a note, consultancy Eurasia Group’s Henning Gloystein said:
I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .
I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.
Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .
I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .
Any party not prepared to back rejoining / EEA is not on my list come the next election
You will only have the SNP or Plaid
You have a window into the future do you?
I certainly will not be supporting your Tories. I have both a conscience and a spine.
I am not a member of the conservative party and only yesterday Starmer ruled out joining the single market
Which was as stupid thing to do. Really stupid...
Labour needs a new leader with vision and policies and above all courage.
If Labour want to win back the red wall then he must NOT speak about rejoining anything in the EU.
Why?
It's in the best interest of this country and I really believe it will be popular so a good move both for country and politically for Labour.
Opinion polls have confirmed that there is a growing trend who think Brexit was wrong. The demographics will only reinforce that going forward.
Yes, but now is not yet the time. The softly softly rapprochement with the EU is what is needed now. Rejoiners like me are quite comfortable with that, with the longer term objective of Rejoin coming when the fruit is ripe.
But the trajectory is for the UK to spin further away from the EU, and get entirely used to governing itself, so that the idea of rejoining will become impossible. Note how there is absolutely no way Norway, Switzerland or Iceland will join the EU, any time soon, polling in all countries is vehemently against (despite, say, the Oslo government being quite keen, at times)
Also the EU will further federalise, interim, making our membership even more unpalatable, over time
So something big is needed to change this narrative, to knock the stylus out of the groove, and it needs to happen soon before it is too late. That's why Rejoiners will mount a big push if "they" win in 2024, to get us back in the SM (or something like it). It might be their only chance
But they won't tell the voters this, before the election
Insofar as there is an argument in there, it collapses at the point when you remember that Norway and Switzerland are effectively inside the Single Market.
The other flaw is that if the tide changes, and we are reconverging, albeit on relatively small pragmatic issues, then the gap to Rejoining SM or EU proper is getting smaller with time, not greater.
Your argument fails, at least as far as EU membership is concerned, because it assumes the EU is a static thing with which we converge. In the fact the EU is itself changing, moving away from us and becoming less and less appealing to people in the process.
Yes, but we will align with the new rules for pragmatic trading purposes, so we will be getting closer even if they are moving away. All the polling evidence is that sentiment is moving towards the EU rather than away from it.
I don't expect Rejoin to be on the table in the rest of this decade, but it will be a serious issue in the 2030's. I am happy to bide my time while the fruit ripens.
I think that is a complete pipe dream. None of the underlying issues with the EU will have been resolved whether in the 2030s, 40s or 50s. It is not in the nature of the beast. That is your fundamental error in thinking. You don't understand what the EU is nor what it aspires to.
If Remainers had been able to be part of the process then the pressure for “quick wins” (which aren’t wins) might have been reduced and an approach of “this will take time” would be in the UK’s interests.
Brexit is a shitshow.
Not because people who knew it was a shitshow didn't help out.
@Leon figured it out in 2016 if not 2015 but he is doing a lot of protesting which is wholly understandable. He is of course a remainer. Dare I say a diehard remainer. Cosmopolitan, urban, Camden-urban even, sophisticated, worldly, knaps a mean flint. Of course he is a remainer.
But he is doing a lot of shouting in the forlorn hope that his "Remoaner" schtick will drown out his own inner voices.
It won't.
lol. I'm really NOT any of these things, even if a number of PBers wish to believe the opposite
My vote on the day was knife edge, as I have confessed often enough. In brief I knew Brexit would be bad economically but I also knew that Remaining would be increasingly terrible for our democracy and polity
I'm still quite divided now, but if forced to vote again, I would - just about - vote Leave again. I hate the fucking mess of Brexit, and the way it poisons our debates, I fervently hope we can find someway to restore FoM and the SM (I LIKED FoM, tho I respect the views of those that don't)
But this is the ultimate test: Would I vote Leave again? Ultimately, and with great reluctance, Yes I would. I don't want us to be part of the anti-democratic increasingly Federalised EU
A bit revisionist to say the least. Any suggestion that a new Govt would rejoin the SM you take as the thin end of the Rejoin wedge. Your attitudes on here, and those of your various other noms de plume, have never been in favour.
Not true.
SeanT once penned a poetic post praising the fantastic joys of being an EU citizen, and sharing in all the great things of the various members. Shame this blog has lost its archive.
And don't ignore the slow burn effect of the Ukraine crisis.
The EU was born out of a desire to avoid war in Europe and bind together its economies and peoples to make sure this never happened again.
Just when most of us thought this objective overtaken by the passage of time, it has become salient once again.
No it hasn't because that binding together in the present context would require Russia to be an EU member. And in so far that the leaders of Germany etc have been happy to bind its economy to Russian raw materials, it has in fact weakened not enhanced German security, and undermined collective action being taken against Russia on sanctions.
It is funny that some of the die hard Europhiles are still pushing this myth of the EU preventing war.
I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .
I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.
Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .
I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .
More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.
It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5 years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.
Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.
If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.
Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.
For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.
You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.
After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.
If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.
Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.
So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.
So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.
You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin
Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason
The stabbed in the back Brexit myth takes shape.
The Leopards Eating Faces party is great.
*votes for Leopards Eating Faces party*
It’s all the fault of the Leopards Eating Faces Is Bad party that having my face eaten by a leopard has turned out to be horrible and agonising!
Purely in terms of party advantage, the Tories have a difficult choice.
Option 1: replace Johnson now, elect hopefully more popular successor, gradually recover. Problem: need to accept that successor gets the blame for all the economic problems coming, and in 1-2 years is unpopular - "so much worse for my wallet than Boris was".
Option 2: let the year run since the last confidence vote and then see. If Johnson has recovered, fine. Otherwise, replace and call a snap election - "Give our exciting new leader X a chance". Problem is that that's another 11 months of people taking an increasingly firm decision not to vote Tory next time. Would they buy a deathbed repentance?
6K win for Lib Dems! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that’s more like it
Earthquake
Boris, do one.
Remainia more a problem for Tory’s by far than leaverstan. After locals and this, that’s unarguable now.
No, Labour’s performance is good enough. The red wall is heading home.
It’s just overshadowed by the blue wall in full collapse. This is beyond the LD’s wildest dreams.
No it’s not! They got 1% more than the Torys managed at the GE, in mid term against this background? It’s an awful result for Labour.
Where are you getting Red Wall coming home at GE from this flop?
Keir is doing “enough”.
I don’t like him much, and seemingly nobody else does, but he will be next PM barring a Johnson ouster.
The Tories are sleepwalking to defeat. There’s nothing left in the tank. Nothing.
We can say goodbye to the idea of an early election, too.
Moon is one of these posters where once they’ve made up their mind it’s like talking to a brick wall
The result is very mildly disappointing for Labour. There’s no excitement for Keir and his project. But it’s a good enough win, and importantly I believe it shows that it is over for the Tories.
The next election is now simply about whether Labour can scrape a majority.
You can state Fantasy and hopes as much as you want, as much as Horse, Heathener and Roger too. I deal in facts.
Labour can’t even be confident of holding Wakefield at a GE on this result, with the hand sitters coming back, let alone tougher challenges in the Red Wall - that’s fact. That’s the fact this result screams at us. Far tougher red wall challenges than this at next GE, and they even have fight on to defend this.
Labour got better Red Wall results than this flop on local election night.
The polling of the seat gave them a better result than this.
Tonight was a Labour flop, once it all sinks in.
No, that is nonsense. The first Lab gain in a by-election in years. Not as spectacular as the LD result in Devon, but this puts Starmer comfortably in Number 10, the only question is whether as minority or majority government.
Your man Johnson is now a total liability.
You have it so wrong. J
I think a little more humility might be in order from the person who assured me the Tories would win T&H.
I asked you then if you worked for CCHQ. I'm now becoming even more suspicious that you do.
You're a tory party wonk aren't you?
“ who assured me the Tories would win T&H.”
Where’s your actual evidence for continued defamation of my charachater? Liar.
I’m sat back in bed reading and enjoying all the anti Boris and anti Tory pressure across the media right now. But I will step in when the important bits of pseoulogy (I word I can only spell when drunk bizarrely) is wrong.
Labours average by election result yesterday (they should have broken 50% in mid term by election at least) is piggy backing on the astonishing Lib Dem result this morning. Fact.
Starmer is using this to shore up his own position, which I am pleased with. 😝 Fact.
Tactical voting did not play a huge part in these two results, It was not tactical voting what won it. Fact.
I said at start of night and all through I would judge it on votes not swings, and I stand by that - opponents sitting on hands give you huge swings that are a bit fools gold compared to size of your vote growing which suggests switchers, Labour failed in my measurement.
But you are not reading my posts before gobbing off, because I made clear I am frustrated because I detest Boris and desperate for a change, but the continued unconvincing real votes in trying to knock down the red wall means we have to watch general election night through our fingers, as so far the psephologiy fills us with little confidence the red wall is clearly coming home to Labour.
Purely in terms of party advantage, the Tories have a difficult choice.
Option 1: replace Johnson now, elect hopefully more popular successor, gradually recover. Problem: need to accept that successor gets the blame for all the economic problems coming, and in 1-2 years is unpopular - "so much worse for my wallet than Boris was".
Option 2: let the year run since the last confidence vote and then see. If Johnson has recovered, fine. Otherwise, replace and call a snap election - "Give our exciting new leader X a chance". Problem is that that's another 11 months of people taking an increasingly firm decision not to vote Tory next time. Would they buy a deathbed repentance?
I'm genuinely not sure what is their better bet.
Isn't there a third option.
Kick Johnson out just before Conference, and use Conference as a clean platform to air the runners and riders – clear media air etc without any opposition (as is traditional in conference season).
Hmm. I note that it is from The Baroness Davidson of Lundin Links.
2011 - elected MSP - but by virtue of being selected as a Tory candidate for the regional list, where a seat was prettu much guaranteed once the Tory in front of her had to withdraw his candidacy 2016 - elected MSP on the (to her credit) the constitency side, leading her party to do a lot better than before - but relying heavily on the list seats 2018 - most certainly not elected to the peerage.
But, equally, she is not saying she is the one ...
To be fair to Ruth, I think she's been the only Unionist politician to come close to matching Nicola Sturgeon in charisma. Compared to her successors and predecessors, she's political giant. Had she been in another party, her ambition to become FM could have been realised. Her problem was always Westminster, imv. She was a large part of putting the Tories into Opposition in Scotland, no mean feat even if she didn't do it alone.
I think David Lammys comments on the EU were the best way forward .
I don’t see Labour Remainers jumping ship because the party won’t commit to rejoining or joining the SM or CU.
Repairing relations with the EU , agri food agreements etc seem hardly controversial .
I just don’t see any appetite amongst my many Remainer friends to go through another fight over EU membership .
More or less, can’t be bothered with that argument right now. Align standards where it’s sensible, stop picking fights with the French and get ready to play the long game.
Indeed. I am not a re-joiner, but I think those who are of that persuasion must reconcile themselves to the idea that it's a generational project. After all, there's no incentive for the rest of the EU to consider letting us back in until it becomes obvious that there is a large and settled majority for that proposition (no less than 2:1 in favour) in both Parliament and the electorate.
It took four over four decades for the souverainiste faction to get what they wanted. I can't see the re-joiners being ready to make a proper push for their aim in anything less than two.
Yes, my CLP last night had a motion calling for re-joining. Everyone in the room agreed with him on the issue, but everyone except him agreed that it would be madness to propose it in the next Parliament. We urged the party to promise sensible, friendly parternship with the EU for the next 5 years, and worry about re-joining in a future Parliament.
I’m sure this will be an unpopular view with those here who dream of rejoining but here I go.
Until intelligent people who dream of rejoining stop sodding dreaming of rejoining then Brexit can never be a success.
If everyone intelligent who wanted to rejoin said “ok it’s not where we want to be but we are here so let’s throw our energies and weight into taking it out of the hands of the idiots who are running the show then it might just end up being a good thing for the country”.
Think of it this way, the people voted (rightly or wrongly depending on your opinion) for Brexit. If there are senior civil servants, politicians, anyone of influence and use who are constantly trying to put up barriers to Brexit then it’s never going to work well.
For a crap analogy, imagine you work for a part of a bank, the management team and some shareholders decide to do a management buy-out of the part of the bank you work for because they think it will work better and be more profitable and nimble in the future - yes it will lose economies of scale, maybe influence, all sorts of benefits but actually they are sure that these issues are outweighed by being standalone.
You are angry as you liked being part of Moneybank Global as you could transfer to work in any other office, you personally thought that what your division lost by Moneybank’s rules were worth it for other benefits, some tangible and others more symbolic - part of a big global bank family.
After the MBO you sit and sulk and slow down things - you hope that the management will say, “gosh you are right, this is crap, let’s rejoin Moneybank global”.
If you had embraced it instead you could ensure that the direction it takes works but because you are being obstructive they put John Idiot in charge of the team and the outcome is worse than if you had stepped up to the plate.
Because remainders with brains walked away in a strop it was left to John Idiots to drive how Brexit would work hence stupid speed of prioritising trade deals to show somethings being done.
So everyone who sits there waiting for “rejoin” is ultimately buggering up the country more than is has to be. And don’t think that if we were to discuss rejoin with the EU that we would be going back in as before - all the opt outs would go and the EU would take their pound of flesh.
So we can have a successful realistic Brexit if everyone pulls their weight or you can hold out for rejoin where rejoin might be rejoining something very different to what we had.
You have identified the same problem as me. Remain has not gone away and lurks just beneath the surface of British political life, especially in the Labour Party (as we see from NPXMP's comment). Rejoiners and Remainers will never be reconciled to Brexit. So they will spend a decade or two putting spanners in the works, so Britain falls over, and we have to Rejoin
Except that they will almost certainly fail, so they will be hobbling the country for no reason
The economic data is clear and unambiguous - Boris's Brexit deal has "hobbled the country" as you put it. That is not to say that no form of Brexit could work economically - far from it. Only that *this* form of Brexit has been economically damaging.
Your problem is that you are obsessively fighting the last battle. As are the minority of hardcore rejoiners AND hardcore no-dealers. All need to be set aside, we are where we are. Even if a UK government in a few years wanted back into the UK there is no way they would let us.
So just like the fantasies of no deal and Singapore-on-Thames "lets leave the WTO" Brexit, the rejoiners are in fantasy land and can be left to it.
So what we have to do is fix Brexit. Because it has and will continue to cause economic damage and make our businesses and exporters less competitive. That is strategically damaging in the long term as well as the short term hit.
Well then you need to talk to "all the members of NPXMP's constituency Labour Party" who apparently want to Rejoin, and who are quietly working towards that
This is my point. I entirely accept that you and others are *reconciled* to Brexit, but many people are not, especially politically active people in the Labour Party and the Lib Dems. They want to Rejoin, passionately, and they have not given up - not at all
Until THEY are reconciled, this problem will bedevil us. I cannot see an easy solution, because this is a question of faith
You're obsessed and obsessive about this. It's become a paranoia - seriously.
If and when SKS or another current opposition leader becomes PM I really don't think they will be rushing to join any part of the EU. And if they do, it will be with the people's consent. So quite why you are getting yourself in such a paddy over that scenario, I really don't know.
Actually, I suspect I do know and I suspect you do too. You know Brexit isn't going well (understatement of the year) and you're not prepared to admit it to yourself?
I've seen this kind of obsessiveness in all walks of life. I've been like it myself: perhaps most recently with covid. It can be a terrifying thing when it takes over and it's really hard to see what's happening to yourself. It probably took a few people on here to give me a 'wtf' response for me to realise that I was losing all sense of proportion over the virus. You, if I may say, are like that at the moment with Brexit-Remain-Rejoin.
That’s interesting. Are you now in a better place wrt Covid? You certainly weren’t when you joined last year.
Thank you. Yes I am. I was in a downward spiral of paranoia with it. I mean ridiculous with hindsight: wafting people away with my walking pole even when I was wearing a mask. Wtf?
I'm much more relaxed about it now. I'd still rather not catch it, but not to the point of going loopy over it.
It was because a few people on here took me to task about it that the penny dropped.
Hmm. I note that it is from The Baroness Davidson of Lundin Links.
2011 - elected MSP - but by virtue of being selected as a Tory candidate for the regional list, where a seat was prettu much guaranteed once the Tory in front of her had to withdraw his candidacy 2016 - elected MSP on the (to her credit) the constitency side, leading her party to do a lot better than before - but relying heavily on the list seats 2018 - most certainly not elected to the peerage.
But, equally, she is not saying she is the one ...
Also a bit rich considering she actually only designed one campaign in the last 8 years, vote for us to stop Indy ref II, with very much diminishing returns.
MoonRiver does a great impression of someone who loves Boris, for someone who purports to hates Boris.
Evidence? Liar.
This “ Labours average by election result yesterday (they should have broken 50% in mid term by election at least) ” isn’t pro Boris, it’s cold water in faces of people who have started talking in tongues.
Today is bound to be St Spin day, I am standing up for the psephology and the right lessons learnt. 😇
You might not like this but Labour are right on this - the best strategy for Labour to pursue is one where they avoid Brexit & focus on rebuilding society, the economy & our democratic institutions.
The question I would like someone in Labour to answer is this. How do they propose to rebuild the economy without addressing the harm which Brexit has done to it?
Avoiding Brexit but claiming that they can repair the economy without addressing its effects on the economy is as dishonest in its way as all the guff the Tories spout about the advantages of Brexit.
British economic performance has been mediocre for a long time for a long list of reasons that have nothing to do with the EU: skills, education, infrastructure, business investment, rentier distortions, etc.
If we had a government that was able to make progress on those issues then the economy would be strengthened regardless of what happened with the EU. And we could approach our relationship with the EU from a position of realistic self-confidence, which will be a great improvement on our attitude the last times we made decisions on our relationship with the EU.
Comments
Perhaps you can then point us to your posts from that time ?
Nothing I have seen so far from this Government of the Brexit' Allstars has caused me to change my view.
No doubt some would wish that the whole Brexit issue would disappear because it is not delivering what it promised.
SeanT once penned a poetic post praising the fantastic joys of being an EU citizen, and sharing in all the great things of the various members. Shame this blog has lost its archive.
Leavers were, understandably, somewhat enraged, emotional and jittery
And now I must attend to my couriers. If anyone wants a taste of REAL bureaucracy I suggest they try importing and exporting from T'bilsi
eg I have been trying to take collection of some couriered contact lenses for 3 weeks or more. They have been sitting in a T'bilisi office all that time. Now, just as Georgian customs agree to finally release them - the day before I probably leave - they have abruptly informed me that I need a "Georgian taxpayer code" which I get by "applying to the Ministry"
The EU was born out of a desire to avoid war in Europe and bind together its economies and peoples to make sure this never happened again.
Just when most of us thought this objective overtaken by the passage of time, it has become salient once again.
I, apparently the lone crank banging on about Brexit and the EU, have had enough of you guys banging on about Brexit and the EU, and I will Brexit this debate and LEAVE you to it
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61857007
If it was Labour in power right now we'd be counting down the days.
One says: ‘If I was a red wall mp I would be looking for a new job not f***ing around in Parliament.’
Another: ‘The PM is being kept in place by a coalition of 1) MPs who have decided they will lose their seat in 2024 whatever happens and they want to be a Minister for whatever short time they have left and 2) the incurably stupid who still think the PM is a vote winner’
George Osborne said it best: "if the economy fails on your watch, basically your time is up"
Read our response, including our mid-week national voting intention polling, in today's Magnified newsletter at 12 pm.
What can we learn from this latest result?
Redfield doing ANOTHER poll!
I actually weigh significantly less when I was around 14-15. Then I was about 6st 7lbs, which is thin enough to touch one's spine through the stomach (ill-advised, though, as it causes a massive retching reflex).
I didn't like some, say there would be a result today.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/24/ukraine-ammunition-russian-sabotage-artillery/
...Blasts in 2017 at two big Ukrainian depots, which together had stored 221 metric tons of ammunition, dealt a massive setback to Ukrainian forces, sapping them of critical supplies that would be difficult and expensive to replace.
The secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council at the time, Oleksandr Turchynov, said the two blasts in March and September 2017 ruined “an enormous amount of ammunition” and represented the biggest blow to Ukraine’s defense capability since the start of the conflict with Russia....
Re-joiners, however, realise that for a Labour government (which could deliver a referendum) to come to power it needs a reasonable number of leavers to vote for it. Hence, why they aren't putting pressure on Labour now, but will do once enough time has elapsed since the 2016 referendum and subsequent Brexit wars. Nick Palmer's earlier in this thread suggests this likely is the thinking of committed pro-EU people within Labour,
One says: ‘If I was a red wall mp I would be looking for a new job not f***ing around in Parliament.’
Another: ‘The PM is being kept in place by a coalition of 1) MPs who have decided they will lose their seat in 2024 whatever happens and they want to be a Minister for whatever short time they have left and 2) the incurably stupid who still think the PM is a vote winner’
https://twitter.com/wizbates/status/1540262992876605440
Have you yet decided where it's to be ?
https://lightyear.one/lightyear-0
It will be interesting to see how the technology develops over time.
I think Labour/LD would be a strong Government tbh
2011 - elected MSP - but by virtue of being selected as a Tory candidate for the regional list, where a seat was prettu much guaranteed once the Tory in front of her had to withdraw his candidacy
2016 - elected MSP on the (to her credit) the constitency side, leading her party to do a lot better than before - but relying heavily on the list seats
2018 - most certainly not elected to the peerage.
But, equally, she is not saying she is the one ...
Saddle Starmer with having to beg round for votes, hobbling on with a weak administration and no real mandate. Labour would be despised again in short order
It is certainly a distraction from good governance. But what would Raab know about that.
They tip @halfon4harlowMP as the next party chair
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1540265185230946305
This should be a proud reforming Government doing good things for people but they've honestly achieved sod all. It's kind of amazing really.
PM partly surprised because Dowden had prepared PM for PMQs on Weds and said he expected to lost the by-elections, so didn't expect him to resign. A source close to PM tells me its "not helpful" and what comes next?
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1540246586361520129
My 'out before conference' bet is looking considerably more healthy than it did yesterday/
Younger generations pointing out, fairly, that pensioners are predatory and thieving from younger generations to fund their retirements. Making it prohibitively expensive to own additional properties is the best way to solve this as it frees up millions of houses for purchase by young people who are currently priced out of the market by landlords and second home owners.
You want everyone to "get along" but while older generations are monopolising wealth and prosperity I see no reason for young people to be part of this grand bargain of "getting along" for the sake of it. It's up to older people to realise their selfishness is the cause of friction between the generations, they are leeching from their children and grandchildren yet want all of us to play nice because their parents made sacrifices while they made none.
It's like chasing a rainbow.
Avoiding Brexit but claiming that they can repair the economy without addressing its effects on the economy is as dishonest in its way as all the guff the Tories spout about the advantages of Brexit.
Peter Kellner:” Resign “.
https://twitter.com/stefanbednar/status/1540256656604512262
Raab: We must get rid of distraction, eg partygate.
NR: Isn't Boris Johnson the distraction, eg partygate.
Raab: we are delivering our policies, etc, etc
Also apropos of some tweets this morning about Cons MPs being dead men walking - NR specifically reminded Raab that his own constituency was a marginal and he would likely lose his seat at the next GE.
New Thread
The other point is that, while they mean nothing in themselves when the government has a large majority, they can prod parties to do things like change policies or leaders that they wouldn't otherwise do, and that could have an effect at the next GE.
FWIW, I would welcome a piece on it, as it matters, whatever 'the usual suspects' have to say.
There are problems coming down the line like this
European gas prices set for second weekly gain
Benchmark natural gas prices for Europe are likely to mark their second consecutive week of advances as Russia’s supply cuts rattle markets.
Bloomberg reports:
Benchmark futures slipped Friday but still are about 12pc higher this week. The crisis is centered around European powerhouse Germany, which moved to the second-highest phase of an emergency plan and warned the cuts could trigger a
Lehman Brothers-like collapse of the energy market.
In a note, consultancy Eurasia Group’s Henning Gloystein said:
*votes for Leopards Eating Faces party*
It’s all the fault of the Leopards Eating Faces Is Bad party that having my face eaten by a leopard has turned out to be horrible and agonising!
Option 1: replace Johnson now, elect hopefully more popular successor, gradually recover. Problem: need to accept that successor gets the blame for all the economic problems coming, and in 1-2 years is unpopular - "so much worse for my wallet than Boris was".
Option 2: let the year run since the last confidence vote and then see. If Johnson has recovered, fine. Otherwise, replace and call a snap election - "Give our exciting new leader X a chance". Problem is that that's another 11 months of people taking an increasingly firm decision not to vote Tory next time. Would they buy a deathbed repentance?
I'm genuinely not sure what is their better bet.
Where’s your actual evidence for continued defamation of my charachater? Liar.
I’m sat back in bed reading and enjoying all the anti Boris and anti Tory pressure across the media right now. But I will step in when the important bits of pseoulogy (I word I can only spell when drunk bizarrely) is wrong.
Labours average by election result yesterday (they should have broken 50% in mid term by election at least) is piggy backing on the astonishing Lib Dem result this morning. Fact.
Starmer is using this to shore up his own position, which I am pleased with. 😝 Fact.
Tactical voting did not play a huge part in these two results, It was not tactical voting what won it. Fact.
I said at start of night and all through I would judge it on votes not swings, and I stand by that - opponents sitting on hands give you huge swings that are a bit fools gold compared to size of your vote growing which suggests switchers, Labour failed in my measurement.
But you are not reading my posts before gobbing off, because I made clear I am frustrated because I detest Boris and desperate for a change, but the continued unconvincing real votes in trying to knock down the red wall means we have to watch general election night through our fingers, as so far the psephologiy fills us with little confidence the red wall is clearly coming home to Labour.
Kick Johnson out just before Conference, and use Conference as a clean platform to air the runners and riders – clear media air etc without any opposition (as is traditional in conference season).
All too rare on PB (on both counts).
This “ Labours average by election result yesterday (they should have broken 50% in mid term by election at least) ” isn’t pro Boris, it’s cold water in faces of people who have started talking in tongues.
Today is bound to be St Spin day, I am standing up for the psephology and the right lessons learnt. 😇
If we had a government that was able to make progress on those issues then the economy would be strengthened regardless of what happened with the EU. And we could approach our relationship with the EU from a position of realistic self-confidence, which will be a great improvement on our attitude the last times we made decisions on our relationship with the EU.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9t7LbNpQcE