The LDs rarely lose when they go into a by-election “full gas” – politicalbetting.com

The past thread has regenerated. Into Sylvester McCoy.

Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

In itself, the Tories losing Tiverton and Honiton is not particularly interesting. What will be interesting is whether enough Tory MPs are spooked into a second attempt at destroying Boris. I can't see it myself. The sun is shining, people are thinking about their holidays and PartyGate seems so Spring 2022. Boris has successfully ridden the narrative again.

Jonathan said:

Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

The LDs are like the fifth book in the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy Trilogy. Illogical, but Mostly Harmless.

Double FPT

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

Leon said:

PB BRAINS TRUST

I am working out where to go next, after I’ve finished Armenia and Georgia. I’ve kind of had enough of post USSR states, charmingly ramshackle as they are. That said, I am drawn to the Stans, particularly Kyrgyzstan, which looks small enough to see in a week

But where else could I go within striking distance of the Caucasus? I don’t want to double back to europe. Is there anywhere in India that has decent weather in July? Ladakh sounds like it does, but what the hell is Ladakh?!

I always fancied the area around the Tian Shan mountains in Kazakhstan. It is supposed to be where much of our hard fruit - apples, pears etc - originated. Apparently they still have wild apple forests there.

Really anywhere along the old Silk Route looks amazing. I think perhaps Samarkand in Uzbekistan looks the best, both because of its amazing architecture and its almost mythical history.

Yes, the Tien Shan would be on my list too.

Mrs Flatlander had a tutor that spent a lot of time investigating the origins of the domestic apple and he was the first to confirm it had come from there (using early DNA analysis).

A book was written...
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Extraordinary-Story-Apple-Barrie-Juniper/dp/1842466550

Does that make it the actual "Eden"?

Lib Dem maj > 3,000 is a good bet. £50 on for me.

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

Leon said:

PB BRAINS TRUST

I am working out where to go next, after I’ve finished Armenia and Georgia. I’ve kind of had enough of post USSR states, charmingly ramshackle as they are. That said, I am drawn to the Stans, particularly Kyrgyzstan, which looks small enough to see in a week

But where else could I go within striking distance of the Caucasus? I don’t want to double back to europe. Is there anywhere in India that has decent weather in July? Ladakh sounds like it does, but what the hell is Ladakh?!

I always fancied the area around the Tian Shan mountains in Kazakhstan. It is supposed to be where much of our hard fruit - apples, pears etc - originated. Apparently they still have wild apple forests there.

Really anywhere along the old Silk Route looks amazing. I think perhaps Samarkand in Uzbekistan looks the best, both because of its amazing architecture and its almost mythical history.

Armenia is very much on the old Silk Road. I did not realise til I came here

The other day I was driving over the high passes to Lake Sevan and I came across a sublime 12th century caravanserai. The light!

Jonathan said:

Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

Nope it is more complicated than that. Think about normal times. Each party focuses on its strengths when campaigning. The LDs have to target more ruthless and have less funds. They learn how to make those funds go further and the activists have to work harder and move about a lot more.

Typically Tories will ensure everywhere in a ward has a deliverer, delivering a couple of leaflets on a regular walk. LDs rarely have a complete ward wide delivery covered. Non target areas will be dropped, people will help where there are holes in targets from elsewhere and deliver more. Consequence is that Tories have more deliverers, but LDs have more active mobile deliverers. Both parties focusing on the best way to use their resources

LDs are also more used to converting (so lots of leaflets) rather than holding seats so the focus is more on delivery rather GOTV, canvassing and a couple of quality leaflets that the Tories focus on.

LDs also have to think about scarcer resources so in house design and printing, etc, etc, which saves money but also gives quick turn around so is agile.

Both parties are focusing on their core strengths and what they have to achieve which is different.


So what has that got to do with a by election?

Well now those rules are broken and what the LDs did in all out elections gives them an advantage in a by election - always.

You have these particular targeting skills that you can apply, but without the financial constraint nor the other wards/constituencies pulling away your resources. So you can flood a by election with keen activists who will deliver all day, apply your targeting techniques and make what is a very large election expense allowance go even further.


PS I used to compare our election expenses to the Tory expenses after an election. The difference in value for money was huge, but if you don't have such a tight budget then why waste time on controlling it. Whereas I had to be ruthless with spending.

Roger said:

Some good lines coming out of this by-election

'We're going to need a bigger swingometer' is great

I think the original was Helen Mirren in Calendar Girls 'I think we're going to need bigger buns'

??

You mean after the original original, right?

Not much of a total for England to aim at. The crowd will be disappointed that they didn't choose to bat and have another crack at 500. As it is they need less than half of that. The Dutch have some tidy batsmen but completely lack the power hitters which makes accelerating at the end of the innings difficult.

Pulpstar said:

Lib Dem maj > 3,000 is a good bet. £50 on for me.

What is your confidence based on?

The news and politics narrative this is set against doesn’t fire “give Tory’s bloody nose” as much as at time the amazing turnover in leave seat Shropshire North.

The anecdotal from this election has not been suggesting a surge of support for Lib Dems - I certainly trust MarqueeMarks opinion from when he went there campaigning for Tories and not finding Lib Dem love.

And the psychology of this seat is very different than in many other recent Lib Dem gains, not just leave, but don’t the voters there just seem a tad more bloody minded in favour of Tories and less open minded on the issues like partygate or controversial Boris policy like Rwanda, a different breed than may be found in Amersham or Shropshire?

Those are three reasons why I am feeling cautious - a bullseye is a proper bet, not just on a small win but a comfortable one, what gives you so much confidence.

At least the Lib Dems have a strong down ramp “it would have happened if it wasn’t for the polarising wedge issue of the strikes.”

Flatlander said:

Double FPT

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

Leon said:

PB BRAINS TRUST

I am working out where to go next, after I’ve finished Armenia and Georgia. I’ve kind of had enough of post USSR states, charmingly ramshackle as they are. That said, I am drawn to the Stans, particularly Kyrgyzstan, which looks small enough to see in a week

But where else could I go within striking distance of the Caucasus? I don’t want to double back to europe. Is there anywhere in India that has decent weather in July? Ladakh sounds like it does, but what the hell is Ladakh?!

I always fancied the area around the Tian Shan mountains in Kazakhstan. It is supposed to be where much of our hard fruit - apples, pears etc - originated. Apparently they still have wild apple forests there.

Really anywhere along the old Silk Route looks amazing. I think perhaps Samarkand in Uzbekistan looks the best, both because of its amazing architecture and its almost mythical history.

Yes, the Tien Shan would be on my list too.

Mrs Flatlander had a tutor that spent a lot of time investigating the origins of the domestic apple and he was the first to confirm it had come from there (using early DNA analysis).

A book was written...
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Extraordinary-Story-Apple-Barrie-Juniper/dp/1842466550

Does that make it the actual "Eden"?

Wow that is brilliant. Travelling the Silk Road has always been my life's ambition. When I was a Kid I imagined doing it by horseback. Then when I got to old for such idiocy I decided it would be better by 4WD. Now I wonder if I could do the whole lot by train.

Sandpit said:

UK Ministry of Defence update:

”Heavy shelling continues as Russia pushes to envelop the Sieverodonetsk area via Izium in the
north and Popasna in the south. Russia is highly likely preparing to attempt to deploy a large
number of reserve units to the Donbas.
“The Russian authorities have not released the overall number of military casualties in Ukraine
since 25 March. However, the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic (PR) publishes casualty
figures for DPR forces. As of 16 June, the DR acknowledged 2128 military personnel killed in
action, and 8897 wounded, since the start of 2022. The DR casualty rate is equivalent to
around 55 per cent of its original force, which highlights the extraordinary attrition Russian and
pro-Russian forces are suffering in the Donbas. It is highly likely that DPR forces are equipped
with outdated weapons and equipment. On both sides, the ability to generate and deploy
reserve units to the front is likely becoming increasingly critical to the outcome of the war.”

I don't think it is so much the reserve units but the speed with which Ukraine can get the new artillery from Germany, the US and the UK deployed on the battlefield. Once they can the Russians may start to run out of options but until they do the attrition rate of well trained soldiers is hard for Ukraine to bear.

Polio's back.

LostPassword said:

Jonathan said:

Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

The mistake many of us made in 2015 was in thinking that the Lib Dems could effectively run many by-election campaigns in parallel, and thereby hold onto more of their seats. So resources are likely a large part of the explanation.

The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.

Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.

The thing is their great strength in by-elections became their great weakness in 2015.

In a by-election they're a great repository for protest votes. They can say anything, do anything, stand for anything depending upon what is popular in that locale. No principles necessary.

They can say to right-leaning voters "vote for us, to stop the Labour Party" or to left-leaning ones "vote for us, to stop the Tories". They can tell NIMBYs that they're against property development, or tell young people they should be able to get on the ladder and not have to rent. Consistency doesn't matter in a by-election where you're just making a point of protest.

But choosing a government? That's different. If you stand for everything, then you stand for nothing. In 2015 it became a case of telling left-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in the Tories, while telling right-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in Labour.

If you're going to stand in the middle of the road, you're in danger of being hit by oncoming vehicles.

Roger said:

Some good lines coming out of this by-election

'We're going to need a bigger swingometer' is great

I think the original was Helen Mirren in Calendar Girls 'I think we're going to need bigger buns'

I noticed that the Lib Dem Richard Foord now only refers to his Tory opponent as 'Boris Johnson's Candidate'

Oh dear oh dear !

OGH even provided a picture clue for you.

Thought you were in and around the film business

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

UK Ministry of Defence update:

”Heavy shelling continues as Russia pushes to envelop the Sieverodonetsk area via Izium in the
north and Popasna in the south. Russia is highly likely preparing to attempt to deploy a large
number of reserve units to the Donbas.
“The Russian authorities have not released the overall number of military casualties in Ukraine
since 25 March. However, the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic (PR) publishes casualty
figures for DPR forces. As of 16 June, the DR acknowledged 2128 military personnel killed in
action, and 8897 wounded, since the start of 2022. The DR casualty rate is equivalent to
around 55 per cent of its original force, which highlights the extraordinary attrition Russian and
pro-Russian forces are suffering in the Donbas. It is highly likely that DPR forces are equipped
with outdated weapons and equipment. On both sides, the ability to generate and deploy
reserve units to the front is likely becoming increasingly critical to the outcome of the war.”

I don't think it is so much the reserve units but the speed with which Ukraine can get the new artillery from Germany, the US and the UK deployed on the battlefield. Once they can the Russians may start to run out of options but until they do the attrition rate of well trained soldiers is hard for Ukraine to bear.

Indeed so. There were reports of the German kit arriving this week, and there’s known to be groups of soldiers training on the British and American heavy kit at the moment.

Russia does appear pretty close to being out of trained men and decent machines, the heavy guns arriving for Ukraine could make quite the difference to the outcome of the war.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Flatlander said:

Double FPT

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

Leon said:

PB BRAINS TRUST

I am working out where to go next, after I’ve finished Armenia and Georgia. I’ve kind of had enough of post USSR states, charmingly ramshackle as they are. That said, I am drawn to the Stans, particularly Kyrgyzstan, which looks small enough to see in a week

But where else could I go within striking distance of the Caucasus? I don’t want to double back to europe. Is there anywhere in India that has decent weather in July? Ladakh sounds like it does, but what the hell is Ladakh?!

I always fancied the area around the Tian Shan mountains in Kazakhstan. It is supposed to be where much of our hard fruit - apples, pears etc - originated. Apparently they still have wild apple forests there.

Really anywhere along the old Silk Route looks amazing. I think perhaps Samarkand in Uzbekistan looks the best, both because of its amazing architecture and its almost mythical history.

Yes, the Tien Shan would be on my list too.

Mrs Flatlander had a tutor that spent a lot of time investigating the origins of the domestic apple and he was the first to confirm it had come from there (using early DNA analysis).

A book was written...
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Extraordinary-Story-Apple-Barrie-Juniper/dp/1842466550

Does that make it the actual "Eden"?

Wow that is brilliant. Travelling the Silk Road has always been my life's ambition. When I was a Kid I imagined doing it by horseback. Then when I got to old for such idiocy I decided it would be better by 4WD. Now I wonder if I could do the whole lot by train.

Wife and I had tentative plans to do the Trans-Siberian railway next year. Well that’s not going to happen now, and likely not for a few years to come.

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

UK Ministry of Defence update:

”Heavy shelling continues as Russia pushes to envelop the Sieverodonetsk area via Izium in the
north and Popasna in the south. Russia is highly likely preparing to attempt to deploy a large
number of reserve units to the Donbas.
“The Russian authorities have not released the overall number of military casualties in Ukraine
since 25 March. However, the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic (PR) publishes casualty
figures for DPR forces. As of 16 June, the DR acknowledged 2128 military personnel killed in
action, and 8897 wounded, since the start of 2022. The DR casualty rate is equivalent to
around 55 per cent of its original force, which highlights the extraordinary attrition Russian and
pro-Russian forces are suffering in the Donbas. It is highly likely that DPR forces are equipped
with outdated weapons and equipment. On both sides, the ability to generate and deploy
reserve units to the front is likely becoming increasingly critical to the outcome of the war.”

I don't think it is so much the reserve units but the speed with which Ukraine can get the new artillery from Germany, the US and the UK deployed on the battlefield. Once they can the Russians may start to run out of options but until they do the attrition rate of well trained soldiers is hard for Ukraine to bear.

Indeed so. There were reports of the German kit arriving this week, and there’s known to be groups of soldiers training on the British and American heavy kit at the moment.

Russia does appear pretty close to being out of trained men and decent machines, the heavy guns arriving for Ukraine could make quite the difference to the outcome of the war.

Once that kit is deployed the counter battery capacity is going to make the Russian artillery look like sitting ducks. If I was Russia I would be focusing all available aircraft and drones on taking this stuff out.

MoonRabbit said:

turbotubbs said:

Roger said:

Some good lines coming out of this by-election

'We're going to need a bigger swingometer' is great

I think the original was Helen Mirren in Calendar Girls 'I think we're going to need bigger buns'

I noticed that the Lib Dem Richard Foord now only refers to his Tory opponent as 'Boris Johnson's Candidate'

Jaws, surely?

Calendar girls working with the famous jaws quote I think.

Have you seen Helen Mirren in Savage Messiah? A couple of splendid “great whites”

You mean Roy Scheider wasn't quoting Helen Mirren?

Sandpit said:

UK Ministry of Defence update:

”Heavy shelling continues as Russia pushes to envelop the Sieverodonetsk area via Izium in the
north and Popasna in the south. Russia is highly likely preparing to attempt to deploy a large
number of reserve units to the Donbas.
“The Russian authorities have not released the overall number of military casualties in Ukraine
since 25 March. However, the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic (PR) publishes casualty
figures for DPR forces. As of 16 June, the DR acknowledged 2128 military personnel killed in
action, and 8897 wounded, since the start of 2022. The DR casualty rate is equivalent to
around 55 per cent of its original force, which highlights the extraordinary attrition Russian and
pro-Russian forces are suffering in the Donbas. It is highly likely that DPR forces are equipped
with outdated weapons and equipment. On both sides, the ability to generate and deploy
reserve units to the front is likely becoming increasingly critical to the outcome of the war.”

About that...
"[Russians] made a gas leak in one of the blocks of flats [of so-called LNR proxy-republic]. After people went to the street, all men were separated from women & children, and then taken to the army,"🇷🇺POW told. He was mobilized in LNR despite a disease
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1539587707021807616

BartholomewRoberts said:

LostPassword said:

Jonathan said:

Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

The mistake many of us made in 2015 was in thinking that the Lib Dems could effectively run many by-election campaigns in parallel, and thereby hold onto more of their seats. So resources are likely a large part of the explanation.

The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.

Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.

The thing is their great strength in by-elections became their great weakness in 2015.

In a by-election they're a great repository for protest votes. They can say anything, do anything, stand for anything depending upon what is popular in that locale. No principles necessary.

They can say to right-leaning voters "vote for us, to stop the Labour Party" or to left-leaning ones "vote for us, to stop the Tories". They can tell NIMBYs that they're against property development, or tell young people they should be able to get on the ladder and not have to rent. Consistency doesn't matter in a by-election where you're just making a point of protest.

But choosing a government? That's different. If you stand for everything, then you stand for nothing. In 2015 it became a case of telling left-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in the Tories, while telling right-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in Labour.

If you're going to stand in the middle of the road, you're in danger of being hit by oncoming vehicles.

And if you way to the right or left, you're in the gutter.

Nigelb said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

LostPassword said:

Jonathan said:

Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

The mistake many of us made in 2015 was in thinking that the Lib Dems could effectively run many by-election campaigns in parallel, and thereby hold onto more of their seats. So resources are likely a large part of the explanation.

The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.

Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.

The thing is their great strength in by-elections became their great weakness in 2015.

In a by-election they're a great repository for protest votes. They can say anything, do anything, stand for anything depending upon what is popular in that locale. No principles necessary.

They can say to right-leaning voters "vote for us, to stop the Labour Party" or to left-leaning ones "vote for us, to stop the Tories". They can tell NIMBYs that they're against property development, or tell young people they should be able to get on the ladder and not have to rent. Consistency doesn't matter in a by-election where you're just making a point of protest.

But choosing a government? That's different. If you stand for everything, then you stand for nothing. In 2015 it became a case of telling left-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in the Tories, while telling right-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in Labour.

If you're going to stand in the middle of the road, you're in danger of being hit by oncoming vehicles.

And if you way to the right or left, you're in the gutter.

You have to pick a side and get past the gutter to get safely to the pavement.

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

LostPassword said:

Jonathan said:

Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

The mistake many of us made in 2015 was in thinking that the Lib Dems could effectively run many by-election campaigns in parallel, and thereby hold onto more of their seats. So resources are likely a large part of the explanation.

The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.

Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.

The thing is their great strength in by-elections became their great weakness in 2015.

In a by-election they're a great repository for protest votes. They can say anything, do anything, stand for anything depending upon what is popular in that locale. No principles necessary.

They can say to right-leaning voters "vote for us, to stop the Labour Party" or to left-leaning ones "vote for us, to stop the Tories". They can tell NIMBYs that they're against property development, or tell young people they should be able to get on the ladder and not have to rent. Consistency doesn't matter in a by-election where you're just making a point of protest.

But choosing a government? That's different. If you stand for everything, then you stand for nothing. In 2015 it became a case of telling left-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in the Tories, while telling right-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in Labour.

If you're going to stand in the middle of the road, you're in danger of being hit by oncoming vehicles.

And if you way to the right or left, you're in the gutter.

You have to pick a side and get past the gutter to get safely to the pavement.

I don’t think you’re meant to be driving on the pavement however.

BartholomewRoberts said:

MoonRabbit said:

turbotubbs said:

Roger said:

Some good lines coming out of this by-election

'We're going to need a bigger swingometer' is great

I think the original was Helen Mirren in Calendar Girls 'I think we're going to need bigger buns'

I noticed that the Lib Dem Richard Foord now only refers to his Tory opponent as 'Boris Johnson's Candidate'

Jaws, surely?

Calendar girls working with the famous jaws quote I think.

Have you seen Helen Mirren in Savage Messiah? A couple of splendid “great whites”

You mean Roy Scheider wasn't quoting Helen Mirren?

By a couple of decades I think?

Wasn’t jaws what made Spielberg’s name?

Back on topic - the surge of Lib Dem confidence hours before polling opens certainly doesn’t suggest a failure. 🙂

bondegezou said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

LostPassword said:

Jonathan said:

Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

The mistake many of us made in 2015 was in thinking that the Lib Dems could effectively run many by-election campaigns in parallel, and thereby hold onto more of their seats. So resources are likely a large part of the explanation.

The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.

Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.

The thing is their great strength in by-elections became their great weakness in 2015.

In a by-election they're a great repository for protest votes. They can say anything, do anything, stand for anything depending upon what is popular in that locale. No principles necessary.

They can say to right-leaning voters "vote for us, to stop the Labour Party" or to left-leaning ones "vote for us, to stop the Tories". They can tell NIMBYs that they're against property development, or tell young people they should be able to get on the ladder and not have to rent. Consistency doesn't matter in a by-election where you're just making a point of protest.

But choosing a government? That's different. If you stand for everything, then you stand for nothing. In 2015 it became a case of telling left-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in the Tories, while telling right-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in Labour.

If you're going to stand in the middle of the road, you're in danger of being hit by oncoming vehicles.

And if you way to the right or left, you're in the gutter.

You have to pick a side and get past the gutter to get safely to the pavement.

I don’t think you’re meant to be driving on the pavement however.

You're talking to a libertarian, remember.

bondegezou said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

LostPassword said:

Jonathan said:

Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

The mistake many of us made in 2015 was in thinking that the Lib Dems could effectively run many by-election campaigns in parallel, and thereby hold onto more of their seats. So resources are likely a large part of the explanation.

The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.

Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.

The thing is their great strength in by-elections became their great weakness in 2015.

In a by-election they're a great repository for protest votes. They can say anything, do anything, stand for anything depending upon what is popular in that locale. No principles necessary.

They can say to right-leaning voters "vote for us, to stop the Labour Party" or to left-leaning ones "vote for us, to stop the Tories". They can tell NIMBYs that they're against property development, or tell young people they should be able to get on the ladder and not have to rent. Consistency doesn't matter in a by-election where you're just making a point of protest.

But choosing a government? That's different. If you stand for everything, then you stand for nothing. In 2015 it became a case of telling left-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in the Tories, while telling right-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in Labour.

If you're going to stand in the middle of the road, you're in danger of being hit by oncoming vehicles.

And if you way to the right or left, you're in the gutter.

You have to pick a side and get past the gutter to get safely to the pavement.

I don’t think you’re meant to be driving on the pavement however.

No, but it is where you should stand.

Mr. Sandpit, your post is hopelessly vague.

You say German kit may be arriving this week but utterly fail to specify whether this is for Ukraine or Russian forces.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Flatlander said:

Double FPT

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

Leon said:

PB BRAINS TRUST

I am working out where to go next, after I’ve finished Armenia and Georgia. I’ve kind of had enough of post USSR states, charmingly ramshackle as they are. That said, I am drawn to the Stans, particularly Kyrgyzstan, which looks small enough to see in a week

But where else could I go within striking distance of the Caucasus? I don’t want to double back to europe. Is there anywhere in India that has decent weather in July? Ladakh sounds like it does, but what the hell is Ladakh?!

I always fancied the area around the Tian Shan mountains in Kazakhstan. It is supposed to be where much of our hard fruit - apples, pears etc - originated. Apparently they still have wild apple forests there.

Really anywhere along the old Silk Route looks amazing. I think perhaps Samarkand in Uzbekistan looks the best, both because of its amazing architecture and its almost mythical history.

Yes, the Tien Shan would be on my list too.

Mrs Flatlander had a tutor that spent a lot of time investigating the origins of the domestic apple and he was the first to confirm it had come from there (using early DNA analysis).

A book was written...
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Extraordinary-Story-Apple-Barrie-Juniper/dp/1842466550

Does that make it the actual "Eden"?

Wow that is brilliant. Travelling the Silk Road has always been my life's ambition. When I was a Kid I imagined doing it by horseback. Then when I got to old for such idiocy I decided it would be better by 4WD. Now I wonder if I could do the whole lot by train.

Afternoon! Off topic, but in passing I have just been reading a biography of Thomas Carlyle and came across your illustrious forebear - one of the few celebrities at the chap's funeral in Ecclefechan (a small place in Dumfriesshire).

https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=E9d66JHfbMMC&printsec=frontcover&dq=thomas+carlyle&hl=en&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=tyndall&f=false

TOPPING said:

Roger said:

Some good lines coming out of this by-election

'We're going to need a bigger swingometer' is great

I think the original was Helen Mirren in Calendar Girls 'I think we're going to need bigger buns'

??

You mean after the original original, right?

Jaws was first but this was the funny one (just before the end of the trailer)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmpYu4-Gk94

MoonRabbit said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

MoonRabbit said:

turbotubbs said:

Roger said:

Some good lines coming out of this by-election

'We're going to need a bigger swingometer' is great

I think the original was Helen Mirren in Calendar Girls 'I think we're going to need bigger buns'

I noticed that the Lib Dem Richard Foord now only refers to his Tory opponent as 'Boris Johnson's Candidate'

Jaws, surely?

Calendar girls working with the famous jaws quote I think.

Have you seen Helen Mirren in Savage Messiah? A couple of splendid “great whites”

You mean Roy Scheider wasn't quoting Helen Mirren?

By a couple of decades I think?

Wasn’t jaws what made Spielberg’s name?

Back on topic - the surge of Lib Dem confidence hours before polling opens certainly doesn’t suggest a failure. 🙂

Duel (Spielberg's debut) is a super little film.

A good piece pointing out the significant problems that are gathering around Putin.

https://samf.substack.com/p/paralysis-in-moscow?s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic.

Hmm, overpromise and underdeliver and a small victory seems a bit meh.

Good point but... are the LDs doing the ramping here? I assumed that graphic in the Smarkets tweet was created by them for comedic effect, not by the LDs to share their confidence.

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic.

Hmm, overpromise and underdeliver and a small victory seems a bit meh.

Good point but... are the LDs doing the ramping here? I assumed that graphic in the Smarkets tweet was created by them for comedic effect, not by the LDs to share their confidence.

It’s got liberty bird on it.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, your post is hopelessly vague.

You say German kit may be arriving this week but utterly fail to specify whether this is for Ukraine or Russian forces.

With Olaf Scholz in charge, one can never be sure.

Where does the moniker "Shropshire North" come from? I see it crop up occasionally, but Parliament has it listed as North Shropshire, as does the Electoral Commission, ONS, Ordnance Survey.. and indeed the Parliamentary Constituencies Order (England) 1983 which created it!

To be fair, there are few other forums I'd bother to have this discussion, but the principle seems clear enough:

Borough Constituencies have the compass point afterwards (Walsall North).

County Constituencies (and they don't come much more 'county' than North Shropshire ) have them before.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/how-do-constituencies-get-their-names/

Nigelb said:

bondegezou said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

LostPassword said:

Jonathan said:

Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

The mistake many of us made in 2015 was in thinking that the Lib Dems could effectively run many by-election campaigns in parallel, and thereby hold onto more of their seats. So resources are likely a large part of the explanation.

The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.

Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.

The thing is their great strength in by-elections became their great weakness in 2015.

In a by-election they're a great repository for protest votes. They can say anything, do anything, stand for anything depending upon what is popular in that locale. No principles necessary.

They can say to right-leaning voters "vote for us, to stop the Labour Party" or to left-leaning ones "vote for us, to stop the Tories". They can tell NIMBYs that they're against property development, or tell young people they should be able to get on the ladder and not have to rent. Consistency doesn't matter in a by-election where you're just making a point of protest.

But choosing a government? That's different. If you stand for everything, then you stand for nothing. In 2015 it became a case of telling left-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in the Tories, while telling right-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in Labour.

If you're going to stand in the middle of the road, you're in danger of being hit by oncoming vehicles.

And if you way to the right or left, you're in the gutter.

You have to pick a side and get past the gutter to get safely to the pavement.

I don’t think you’re meant to be driving on the pavement however.

You're talking to a libertarian, remember.

Did you see THIS, @Nigelb?


“Covid virus likely leaked from Wuhan lab: WHO chief Tedros Ghebreyesus

“According to WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the most likely explanation was a catastrophic accident at a laboratory in Wuhan, where infections first spread during late 2019, Daily Mail reported.”

Lol. And thus we come a complete full circle, where we end up admitting what was fucking obvious from the beginning, except to idiots

Basically, I am right about everything. Including DEM ALIENS

https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/world/covid-virus-likely-leaked-from-wuhan-lab-says-who-chief-tedros-ghebreyesus-2022-06-20-786016

DavidL said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

bondegezou said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

LostPassword said:

Jonathan said:

Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

The mistake many of us made in 2015 was in thinking that the Lib Dems could effectively run many by-election campaigns in parallel, and thereby hold onto more of their seats. So resources are likely a large part of the explanation.

The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.

Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.

The thing is their great strength in by-elections became their great weakness in 2015.

In a by-election they're a great repository for protest votes. They can say anything, do anything, stand for anything depending upon what is popular in that locale. No principles necessary.

They can say to right-leaning voters "vote for us, to stop the Labour Party" or to left-leaning ones "vote for us, to stop the Tories". They can tell NIMBYs that they're against property development, or tell young people they should be able to get on the ladder and not have to rent. Consistency doesn't matter in a by-election where you're just making a point of protest.

But choosing a government? That's different. If you stand for everything, then you stand for nothing. In 2015 it became a case of telling left-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in the Tories, while telling right-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in Labour.

If you're going to stand in the middle of the road, you're in danger of being hit by oncoming vehicles.

And if you way to the right or left, you're in the gutter.

You have to pick a side and get past the gutter to get safely to the pavement.

I don’t think you’re meant to be driving on the pavement however.

You're talking to a libertarian, remember.

Did you see THIS, @Nigelb?


“Covid virus likely leaked from Wuhan lab: WHO chief Tedros Ghebreyesus

“According to WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the most likely explanation was a catastrophic accident at a laboratory in Wuhan, where infections first spread during late 2019, Daily Mail reported.”

Lol

Basically, I am right about everything. Including DEM ALIENS

https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/world/covid-virus-likely-leaked-from-wuhan-lab-says-who-chief-tedros-ghebreyesus-2022-06-20-786016

The Democrats are aliens? Explains some of their thinking.

Where's Will Smith when you need him...

JosiasJessop said:

The Russians have taken 307,000 Ukrainian children over the border, and are going to give them a three-year 're-education' course. Russians can adopt them with minimal background checks.

*Anyone* who supports Russia in this hideous conflict is supporting evil. I don't care if you like their politics, or take umbrage at the fact the Ukrainians seem to like Boris, or you like anyone who is against us; you are supporting evil.

I appreciate your passion against against this sort of thing - I would also appreciate links to sources of information, as is normal on PB when reporting news.

Scott_xP said:

Tether to launch stablecoin tied to pound as UK aims to become crypto hub https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jun/22/tether-stablecoin-tied-to-pound-uk-crypto-currency?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1655904295

🫣.

Nigelb said:

bondegezou said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

LostPassword said:

Jonathan said:

Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

The mistake many of us made in 2015 was in thinking that the Lib Dems could effectively run many by-election campaigns in parallel, and thereby hold onto more of their seats. So resources are likely a large part of the explanation.

The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.

Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.

The thing is their great strength in by-elections became their great weakness in 2015.

In a by-election they're a great repository for protest votes. They can say anything, do anything, stand for anything depending upon what is popular in that locale. No principles necessary.

They can say to right-leaning voters "vote for us, to stop the Labour Party" or to left-leaning ones "vote for us, to stop the Tories". They can tell NIMBYs that they're against property development, or tell young people they should be able to get on the ladder and not have to rent. Consistency doesn't matter in a by-election where you're just making a point of protest.

But choosing a government? That's different. If you stand for everything, then you stand for nothing. In 2015 it became a case of telling left-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in the Tories, while telling right-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in Labour.

If you're going to stand in the middle of the road, you're in danger of being hit by oncoming vehicles.

And if you way to the right or left, you're in the gutter.

You have to pick a side and get past the gutter to get safely to the pavement.

I don’t think you’re meant to be driving on the pavement however.

You're talking to a libertarian, remember.

Sorting books into order is actually something I think he might be quite good at?

Luckyguy1983 said:

JosiasJessop said:

The Russians have taken 307,000 Ukrainian children over the border, and are going to give them a three-year 're-education' course. Russians can adopt them with minimal background checks.

*Anyone* who supports Russia in this hideous conflict is supporting evil. I don't care if you like their politics, or take umbrage at the fact the Ukrainians seem to like Boris, or you like anyone who is against us; you are supporting evil.

I appreciate your passion against against this sort of thing - I would also appreciate links to sources of information, as is normal on PB when reporting news.

The source is the Russian military.

I wish people would spend less time on the fence demanding 'sources', and more condemning evil when it is right in front of them.....

MoonRabbit said:

Scott_xP said:

Tether to launch stablecoin tied to pound as UK aims to become crypto hub https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jun/22/tether-stablecoin-tied-to-pound-uk-crypto-currency?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1655904295

🫣.

When Tether launched they launched 4 coins USDT, EURT, GBPT and JPNT only the USDT got traction to begin with.

Now tether for reasons I won't go into here needs to find another currency to toy with...

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

Leon said:

PB BRAINS TRUST

I am working out where to go next, after I’ve finished Armenia and Georgia. I’ve kind of had enough of post USSR states, charmingly ramshackle as they are. That said, I am drawn to the Stans, particularly Kyrgyzstan, which looks small enough to see in a week

But where else could I go within striking distance of the Caucasus? I don’t want to double back to europe. Is there anywhere in India that has decent weather in July? Ladakh sounds like it does, but what the hell is Ladakh?!

I always fancied the area around the Tian Shan mountains in Kazakhstan. It is supposed to be where much of our hard fruit - apples, pears etc - originated. Apparently they still have wild apple forests there.

Really anywhere along the old Silk Route looks amazing. I think perhaps Samarkand in Uzbekistan looks the best, both because of its amazing architecture and its almost mythical history.

Armenia is very much on the old Silk Road. I did not realise til I came here

The other day I was driving over the high passes to Lake Sevan and I came across a sublime 12th century caravanserai. The light!

I envy you your travelling @Leon and despite our deep differences, I really enjoy your updates.

It would be intriguing to hear your take on sentiment in Kazakhstan. The article linked by @Cicero (https://samf.substack.com/p/paralysis-in-moscow?s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email) suggests that Kazakhstan's President Tokayev is beginning to distance himself from Putin.

Appreciate give PB insights on Russia's neighbours may not be the prime factor driving your travels though!

Well, that’s very kind of you

However i can only give feedback on Russia-adjacent places I have so far been, namely Georgia and Armenia

I did get hammered with a Russian war-emigre couple the other day, and they were fascinating, when I have more time (I am in Yerevan airport) I will update

In short, tho, Georgia is FIERCELY anti-war, anfi-Putin, and generally hostile to Russians of all stripes (even those fleeing the war). No surprise, Russia has invaded Georgia several times. They are desperate to join NATO and the EU and there are Ukraine flags everywhere

Armenia is much more ambivalent, you literally see Russian and EU and Ukraine flags alongside. Hedging bets or what

Armenians in general are in favour of “Russia” the great protector against Turks, and Azeris, but I sense they dislike this war and they are fearful. The young would basically love to join the EU and NATO and be safe - or safer. They are notably Anglophile, which is flattering, mainly because of the language: they all want to speak English (seen as the future) and they spurn Russian, which their parents learned

Also, the Armenian word for “thankyou” is so long and complicated they don’t use it and say Merzi (the French Merci\ instead. Surely the only country on earth with its own language to use a foreign word for TA

RH1992 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Applicant said:

Travel update: Helsinki.

No noticeable delay at passport control. Sent straight through without any questions, not even asking to see the Covid passport which they are supposed to AIUI. Had to ask to be stamped in. Maybe travelling with an EU passport holder helped, maybe it's just not as bad as the scare stories being put about.

Commuter train into the city centre: zero masks in evidence. At most half a dozen out of ~200 passengers on the plane (Norwegian abolished their mask rules a while ago and AFAICT doesn't even recommend them).

Travel update: Cambourne.

No noticeable delay in the waiting area (office); however there was a momentary problem on the landing, when I had to stoop down to pick up a couple of empty tea cups. The journey involved two flights (of stairs). I'm afraid the journey was definitely economy class, and I saw no sign of any stewardesses. There was a minor issue at my destination, as my hands were full when I had to pull open the door to the dining room. Some shuffling allowed me through and to the kitchen sink.

And I did not need to show my passport once!

I must say the lack of a stewardess on a flight that was essentially empty (I was the only passenger) is a poor indicator on Jessop Airways. I hear their rail services are better...

Travel update: Somerset.

Two hour queue through border control into the world's best guarded campsite this morning in 23C blazing sunshine.

Lovely weather this afternoon, but very hard to find shade.

Enjoy!

It will get a bit muddy though. 😕

JosiasJessop said:

The Russians have taken 307,000 Ukrainian children over the border, and are going to give them a three-year 're-education' course. Russians can adopt them with minimal background checks.

*Anyone* who supports Russia in this hideous conflict is supporting evil. I don't care if you like their politics, or take umbrage at the fact the Ukrainians seem to like Boris, or you like anyone who is against us; you are supporting evil.

Another day, another post from Mr Jessop in which he tilts at those Russia-supporting windmills.