Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The LDs rarely lose when they go into a by-election “full gas” – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited June 22 in General
The LDs rarely lose when they go into a by-election “full gas” – politicalbetting.com

When was the last time the Lib Dems failed to win a Westminster by-election in which they were competitive?Maybe Oldham East in 2011 or before that Bromley in 2006? pic.twitter.com/DukZAbn6m2

Read the full story here

«134567

Comments

  • TazTaz Posts: 5,044
    First
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,044
    The past thread has regenerated. Into Sylvester McCoy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,986
    Surely Witney in 2016 was the last by election the LDs failed to win when they really went for it?

    Though yes since then the LDs have won the by elections in Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor, Chesham and Amersham and Shropshire North ie all the by election seats they went for

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,895
    Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

    I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,615
    @Leon re masks - I was surprised by the continued enforcement in Portugal. I was told off in a chemist for not wearing one. The trains, planes and metro were enforced (by the staff and public), although not the trams. TAP going out was vigorously enforced. Easyjet on the return didn't give a damn.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,843
    In itself, the Tories losing Tiverton and Honiton is not particularly interesting. What will be interesting is whether enough Tory MPs are spooked into a second attempt at destroying Boris. I can't see it myself. The sun is shining, people are thinking about their holidays and PartyGate seems so Spring 2022. Boris has successfully ridden the narrative again.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 26,102
    FPT
    Leon said:

    PB BRAINS TRUST

    I am working out where to go next, after I’ve finished Armenia and Georgia. I’ve kind of had enough of post USSR states, charmingly ramshackle as they are. That said, I am drawn to the Stans, particularly Kyrgyzstan, which looks small enough to see in a week

    But where else could I go within striking distance of the Caucasus? I don’t want to double back to europe. Is there anywhere in India that has decent weather in July? Ladakh sounds like it does, but what the hell is Ladakh?!


    I always fancied the area around the Tian Shan mountains in Kazakhstan. It is supposed to be where much of our hard fruit - apples, pears etc - originated. Apparently they still have wild apple forests there.

    Really anywhere along the old Silk Route looks amazing. I think perhaps Samarkand in Uzbekistan looks the best, both because of its amazing architecture and its almost mythical history.
  • Jonathan said:

    Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

    I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

    The LDs are like the fifth book in the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy Trilogy. Illogical, but Mostly Harmless.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 1,082
    Jonathan said:

    Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

    I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

    The LibDems more often than not overperform at General Elections in vote share compared to their between-election polling. The party struggles to get attention, but when general election coverage mandates more, or in the context of a competitive by-election, they do well.

    However, FPTP is a harsh mistress. The party hasn’t always done well converting support into seats. 2019, the party had the biggest vote share gain of any party, yet that translated to a net loss of 1 seat. In contrast, in 2017, the party saw a slight fall in vote share, but managed to gain half as many seats as at the previous general.

  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,205
    Double FPT

    FPT

    Leon said:

    PB BRAINS TRUST

    I am working out where to go next, after I’ve finished Armenia and Georgia. I’ve kind of had enough of post USSR states, charmingly ramshackle as they are. That said, I am drawn to the Stans, particularly Kyrgyzstan, which looks small enough to see in a week

    But where else could I go within striking distance of the Caucasus? I don’t want to double back to europe. Is there anywhere in India that has decent weather in July? Ladakh sounds like it does, but what the hell is Ladakh?!


    I always fancied the area around the Tian Shan mountains in Kazakhstan. It is supposed to be where much of our hard fruit - apples, pears etc - originated. Apparently they still have wild apple forests there.

    Really anywhere along the old Silk Route looks amazing. I think perhaps Samarkand in Uzbekistan looks the best, both because of its amazing architecture and its almost mythical history.
    Yes, the Tien Shan would be on my list too.

    Mrs Flatlander had a tutor that spent a lot of time investigating the origins of the domestic apple and he was the first to confirm it had come from there (using early DNA analysis).

    A book was written...
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Extraordinary-Story-Apple-Barrie-Juniper/dp/1842466550

    Does that make it the actual "Eden"?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,318
    FPT for Leon:

    I used to travel to Pakistan a lot. Was very taken with the place, although it was easier back in the 90's - Al Qaeda later blew up the Islamabad hotel I used to stay in.

    The mountains are stunning. Murree was a hill station that the Brits used in the heat of summer, a shortish jaunt out of Islamabad. But I had an extraordinary trip into the high mountains - out through Abbotabad (where Bin Laden was shacked up) and on to the Kaghan valley. I stayed above 10,000 feet, but the high Himalayas including K2 were just over there and above you. Stayed at a basic guest house where the menu was goat or mountain-stream trout, both of which were dispatched/caught as ordered.

    Then walked up to Lake Saiful Muluk - which is extraordinarily beautiful. The only people I saw there were Pakistanis - a small family party having a picnic and a guy in hiking boots and white tuxedo. As you do.

    It used to be very friendly - you could chat to local people with piercing blue eyes, a throw back to the armies of Alexander the Great who went through there. Not sure how long you would last there now as a tourist. I feel very fortunate to have seen it when it was doable.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Saiful_Muluk
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,236
    edited June 22
    Lib Dem maj > 3,000 is a good bet. £50 on for me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,986
    Jonathan said:

    Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

    I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

    On current polls the LDs should be aiming to pick up 10 to 20 Tory Remain seats in London and the South in particular at least.

    They also look likely to be Kingmakers in a hung parliament again as they were in 2010, assuming the current polls are correct, although this time they would go with Starmer Labour whereas in 2010 they went with Cameron's Tories
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,962

    FPT

    Leon said:

    PB BRAINS TRUST

    I am working out where to go next, after I’ve finished Armenia and Georgia. I’ve kind of had enough of post USSR states, charmingly ramshackle as they are. That said, I am drawn to the Stans, particularly Kyrgyzstan, which looks small enough to see in a week

    But where else could I go within striking distance of the Caucasus? I don’t want to double back to europe. Is there anywhere in India that has decent weather in July? Ladakh sounds like it does, but what the hell is Ladakh?!


    I always fancied the area around the Tian Shan mountains in Kazakhstan. It is supposed to be where much of our hard fruit - apples, pears etc - originated. Apparently they still have wild apple forests there.

    Really anywhere along the old Silk Route looks amazing. I think perhaps Samarkand in Uzbekistan looks the best, both because of its amazing architecture and its almost mythical history.

    Armenia is very much on the old Silk Road. I did not realise til I came here

    The other day I was driving over the high passes to Lake Sevan and I came across a sublime 12th century caravanserai. The light!




  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 2,714
    Our Willey/Payne attack cut through the Dutch tail!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,615
    Jonathan said:

    Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

    I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

    Nope it is more complicated than that. Think about normal times. Each party focuses on its strengths when campaigning. The LDs have to target more ruthless and have less funds. They learn how to make those funds go further and the activists have to work harder and move about a lot more.

    Typically Tories will ensure everywhere in a ward has a deliverer, delivering a couple of leaflets on a regular walk. LDs rarely have a complete ward wide delivery covered. Non target areas will be dropped, people will help where there are holes in targets from elsewhere and deliver more. Consequence is that Tories have more deliverers, but LDs have more active mobile deliverers. Both parties focusing on the best way to use their resources

    LDs are also more used to converting (so lots of leaflets) rather than holding seats so the focus is more on delivery rather GOTV, canvassing and a couple of quality leaflets that the Tories focus on.

    LDs also have to think about scarcer resources so in house design and printing, etc, etc, which saves money but also gives quick turn around so is agile.

    Both parties are focusing on their core strengths and what they have to achieve which is different.


    So what has that got to do with a by election?

    Well now those rules are broken and what the LDs did in all out elections gives them an advantage in a by election - always.

    You have these particular targeting skills that you can apply, but without the financial constraint nor the other wards/constituencies pulling away your resources. So you can flood a by election with keen activists who will deliver all day, apply your targeting techniques and make what is a very large election expense allowance go even further.


    PS I used to compare our election expenses to the Tory expenses after an election. The difference in value for money was huge, but if you don't have such a tight budget then why waste time on controlling it. Whereas I had to be ruthless with spending.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,591
    Some good lines coming out of this by-election

    'We're going to need a bigger swingometer' is great

    I think the original was Helen Mirren in Calendar Girls 'I think we're going to need bigger buns'

    I noticed that the Lib Dem Richard Foord now only refers to his Tory opponent as 'Boris Johnson's Candidate'
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,730
    Roger said:

    Some good lines coming out of this by-election

    'We're going to need a bigger swingometer' is great

    I think the original was Helen Mirren in Calendar Girls 'I think we're going to need bigger buns'

    ??

    You mean after the original original, right?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,027
    UK Ministry of Defence update:

    ”Heavy shelling continues as Russia pushes to envelop the Sieverodonetsk area via Izium in the
    north and Popasna in the south. Russia is highly likely preparing to attempt to deploy a large
    number of reserve units to the Donbas.
    “The Russian authorities have not released the overall number of military casualties in Ukraine
    since 25 March. However, the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic (PR) publishes casualty
    figures for DPR forces. As of 16 June, the DR acknowledged 2128 military personnel killed in
    action, and 8897 wounded, since the start of 2022. The DR casualty rate is equivalent to
    around 55 per cent of its original force, which highlights the extraordinary attrition Russian and
    pro-Russian forces are suffering in the Donbas. It is highly likely that DPR forces are equipped
    with outdated weapons and equipment. On both sides, the ability to generate and deploy
    reserve units to the front is likely becoming increasingly critical to the outcome of the war.”
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,827
    Not much of a total for England to aim at. The crowd will be disappointed that they didn't choose to bat and have another crack at 500. As it is they need less than half of that. The Dutch have some tidy batsmen but completely lack the power hitters which makes accelerating at the end of the innings difficult.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,872
    Jonathan said:

    Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

    I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

    The mistake many of us made in 2015 was in thinking that the Lib Dems could effectively run many by-election campaigns in parallel, and thereby hold onto more of their seats. So resources are likely a large part of the explanation.

    The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.

    Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    edited June 22
    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dem maj > 3,000 is a good bet. £50 on for me.

    What is your confidence based on?

    The news and politics narrative this is set against doesn’t fire “give Tory’s bloody nose” as much as at time the amazing turnover in leave seat Shropshire North.

    The anecdotal from this election has not been suggesting a surge of support for Lib Dems - I certainly trust MarqueeMarks opinion from when he went there campaigning for Tories and not finding Lib Dem love.

    And the psychology of this seat is very different than in many other recent Lib Dem gains, not just leave, but don’t the voters there just seem a tad more bloody minded in favour of Tories and less open minded on the issues like partygate or controversial Boris policy like Rwanda, a different breed than may be found in Amersham or Shropshire?

    Those are three reasons why I am feeling cautious - a bullseye is a proper bet, not just on a small win but a comfortable one, what gives you so much confidence.

    At least the Lib Dems have a strong down ramp “it would have happened if it wasn’t for the polarising wedge issue of the strikes.”
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,974
    Roger said:

    Some good lines coming out of this by-election

    'We're going to need a bigger swingometer' is great

    I think the original was Helen Mirren in Calendar Girls 'I think we're going to need bigger buns'

    I noticed that the Lib Dem Richard Foord now only refers to his Tory opponent as 'Boris Johnson's Candidate'

    Jaws, surely?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 26,102

    Double FPT

    FPT

    Leon said:

    PB BRAINS TRUST

    I am working out where to go next, after I’ve finished Armenia and Georgia. I’ve kind of had enough of post USSR states, charmingly ramshackle as they are. That said, I am drawn to the Stans, particularly Kyrgyzstan, which looks small enough to see in a week

    But where else could I go within striking distance of the Caucasus? I don’t want to double back to europe. Is there anywhere in India that has decent weather in July? Ladakh sounds like it does, but what the hell is Ladakh?!


    I always fancied the area around the Tian Shan mountains in Kazakhstan. It is supposed to be where much of our hard fruit - apples, pears etc - originated. Apparently they still have wild apple forests there.

    Really anywhere along the old Silk Route looks amazing. I think perhaps Samarkand in Uzbekistan looks the best, both because of its amazing architecture and its almost mythical history.
    Yes, the Tien Shan would be on my list too.

    Mrs Flatlander had a tutor that spent a lot of time investigating the origins of the domestic apple and he was the first to confirm it had come from there (using early DNA analysis).

    A book was written...
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Extraordinary-Story-Apple-Barrie-Juniper/dp/1842466550

    Does that make it the actual "Eden"?
    Wow that is brilliant. Travelling the Silk Road has always been my life's ambition. When I was a Kid I imagined doing it by horseback. Then when I got to old for such idiocy I decided it would be better by 4WD. Now I wonder if I could do the whole lot by train.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,027
    DavidL said:

    Not much of a total for England to aim at. The crowd will be disappointed that they didn't choose to bat and have another crack at 500. As it is they need less than half of that. The Dutch have some tidy batsmen but completely lack the power hitters which makes accelerating at the end of the innings difficult.

    Just realised we won the toss and chose to field, definitely should have gone for the runs to entertain the crowd. Maybe we can target 20 or 25 overs, to knock these 245 off.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,827
    Sandpit said:

    UK Ministry of Defence update:

    ”Heavy shelling continues as Russia pushes to envelop the Sieverodonetsk area via Izium in the
    north and Popasna in the south. Russia is highly likely preparing to attempt to deploy a large
    number of reserve units to the Donbas.
    “The Russian authorities have not released the overall number of military casualties in Ukraine
    since 25 March. However, the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic (PR) publishes casualty
    figures for DPR forces. As of 16 June, the DR acknowledged 2128 military personnel killed in
    action, and 8897 wounded, since the start of 2022. The DR casualty rate is equivalent to
    around 55 per cent of its original force, which highlights the extraordinary attrition Russian and
    pro-Russian forces are suffering in the Donbas. It is highly likely that DPR forces are equipped
    with outdated weapons and equipment. On both sides, the ability to generate and deploy
    reserve units to the front is likely becoming increasingly critical to the outcome of the war.”

    I don't think it is so much the reserve units but the speed with which Ukraine can get the new artillery from Germany, the US and the UK deployed on the battlefield. Once they can the Russians may start to run out of options but until they do the attrition rate of well trained soldiers is hard for Ukraine to bear.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,048
    Jonathan said:

    Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

    I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

    A better way of making a similar, but not the same, point is to say that many people see a General Election as a choice of Prime Minister, whereas in a by-election it is clearly about the choice of MP.

    Most obviously this puts the party at a disadvantage in that its leader is lesser known, generally less experienced, and not likely to be Prime Minister (Swinson excepted, obvs). Therefore even getting a hearing in the competition for 'next PM' isn't a realistic proposition - and the focus in the media on 'next PM' puts an inexorable squeeze on the LibDem vote, as does all the questioning about who they would back in the event of a NOM.

    Thus in the seats where LibDems are potentially competitive in a GE, they have to put a huge amount of effort just to get to the 'first base' of people appreciating the position in their own seat and understanding that whichever of the main parties it is - nearly almost Labour - is out of the running locally, and then to get voters to reinterpret the GE as a local contest - which in terms of the ballot box it of course is, but viewed through the media it seems it is not. However hard you try, some voters can't get beyond the beauty contest for who will be the next PM.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,236
    Polio's back.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,827
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Not much of a total for England to aim at. The crowd will be disappointed that they didn't choose to bat and have another crack at 500. As it is they need less than half of that. The Dutch have some tidy batsmen but completely lack the power hitters which makes accelerating at the end of the innings difficult.

    Just realised we won the toss and chose to field, definitely should have gone for the runs to entertain the crowd. Maybe we can target 20 or 25 overs, to knock these 245 off.
    Yes, that would be more of a challenge for them and they just might find themselves chasing something similar in the WC.
  • Jonathan said:

    Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

    I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

    The mistake many of us made in 2015 was in thinking that the Lib Dems could effectively run many by-election campaigns in parallel, and thereby hold onto more of their seats. So resources are likely a large part of the explanation.

    The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.

    Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.
    The thing is their great strength in by-elections became their great weakness in 2015.

    In a by-election they're a great repository for protest votes. They can say anything, do anything, stand for anything depending upon what is popular in that locale. No principles necessary.

    They can say to right-leaning voters "vote for us, to stop the Labour Party" or to left-leaning ones "vote for us, to stop the Tories". They can tell NIMBYs that they're against property development, or tell young people they should be able to get on the ladder and not have to rent. Consistency doesn't matter in a by-election where you're just making a point of protest.

    But choosing a government? That's different. If you stand for everything, then you stand for nothing. In 2015 it became a case of telling left-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in the Tories, while telling right-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in Labour.

    If you're going to stand in the middle of the road, you're in danger of being hit by oncoming vehicles.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    edited June 22

    Roger said:

    Some good lines coming out of this by-election

    'We're going to need a bigger swingometer' is great

    I think the original was Helen Mirren in Calendar Girls 'I think we're going to need bigger buns'

    I noticed that the Lib Dem Richard Foord now only refers to his Tory opponent as 'Boris Johnson's Candidate'

    Jaws, surely?
    Calendar girls working with the famous jaws quote I think.

    Have you seen Helen Mirren in Savage Messiah? A couple of splendid “great whites”
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,236
    Roger said:

    Some good lines coming out of this by-election

    'We're going to need a bigger swingometer' is great

    I think the original was Helen Mirren in Calendar Girls 'I think we're going to need bigger buns'

    I noticed that the Lib Dem Richard Foord now only refers to his Tory opponent as 'Boris Johnson's Candidate'

    Oh dear oh dear !

    OGH even provided a picture clue for you.

    Thought you were in and around the film business :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,986

    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dem maj > 3,000 is a good bet. £50 on for me.

    What is your confidence based on?

    The news and politics narrative this is set against doesn’t fire “give Tory’s bloody nose” as much as at time the amazing turnover in leave seat Shropshire North.

    The anecdotal from this election has not been suggesting a surge of support for Lib Dems - I certainly trust MarqueeMarks opinion from when he went there campaigning for Tories and not finding Lib Dem love.

    And the psychology of this seat is very different than in many other recent Lib Dem gains, not just leave, but don’t the voters there just seem a tad more bloody minded in favour of Tories and less open minded on the issues like partygate or controversial Boris policy like Rwanda, a different breed than may be found in Amersham or Shropshire?

    Those are three reasons why I am feeling cautious - a bullseye is a proper bet, not just on a small win but a comfortable one, what gives you so much confidence.

    At least the Lib Dems have a strong down ramp “it would have happened if it wasn’t for the polarising wedge issue of the strikes.”
    I did a bit of phoning in T and H last night and Monday. It is pretty evenly matched, a fair number of Tory to LD defectors but Tory vote not collapsed either. I also managed to persuade 2 very pro Brexit voters from going to RefUK as it was a straight Tory v LD fight. So if Helen Hurford wins by 2 votes and Boris then avoids another VONC he owes me!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,027
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    UK Ministry of Defence update:

    ”Heavy shelling continues as Russia pushes to envelop the Sieverodonetsk area via Izium in the
    north and Popasna in the south. Russia is highly likely preparing to attempt to deploy a large
    number of reserve units to the Donbas.
    “The Russian authorities have not released the overall number of military casualties in Ukraine
    since 25 March. However, the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic (PR) publishes casualty
    figures for DPR forces. As of 16 June, the DR acknowledged 2128 military personnel killed in
    action, and 8897 wounded, since the start of 2022. The DR casualty rate is equivalent to
    around 55 per cent of its original force, which highlights the extraordinary attrition Russian and
    pro-Russian forces are suffering in the Donbas. It is highly likely that DPR forces are equipped
    with outdated weapons and equipment. On both sides, the ability to generate and deploy
    reserve units to the front is likely becoming increasingly critical to the outcome of the war.”

    I don't think it is so much the reserve units but the speed with which Ukraine can get the new artillery from Germany, the US and the UK deployed on the battlefield. Once they can the Russians may start to run out of options but until they do the attrition rate of well trained soldiers is hard for Ukraine to bear.
    Indeed so. There were reports of the German kit arriving this week, and there’s known to be groups of soldiers training on the British and American heavy kit at the moment.

    Russia does appear pretty close to being out of trained men and decent machines, the heavy guns arriving for Ukraine could make quite the difference to the outcome of the war.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 1,082

    Double FPT

    FPT

    Leon said:

    PB BRAINS TRUST

    I am working out where to go next, after I’ve finished Armenia and Georgia. I’ve kind of had enough of post USSR states, charmingly ramshackle as they are. That said, I am drawn to the Stans, particularly Kyrgyzstan, which looks small enough to see in a week

    But where else could I go within striking distance of the Caucasus? I don’t want to double back to europe. Is there anywhere in India that has decent weather in July? Ladakh sounds like it does, but what the hell is Ladakh?!


    I always fancied the area around the Tian Shan mountains in Kazakhstan. It is supposed to be where much of our hard fruit - apples, pears etc - originated. Apparently they still have wild apple forests there.

    Really anywhere along the old Silk Route looks amazing. I think perhaps Samarkand in Uzbekistan looks the best, both because of its amazing architecture and its almost mythical history.
    Yes, the Tien Shan would be on my list too.

    Mrs Flatlander had a tutor that spent a lot of time investigating the origins of the domestic apple and he was the first to confirm it had come from there (using early DNA analysis).

    A book was written...
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Extraordinary-Story-Apple-Barrie-Juniper/dp/1842466550

    Does that make it the actual "Eden"?
    https://youtu.be/bRnTpMFb5qk
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,027

    Double FPT

    FPT

    Leon said:

    PB BRAINS TRUST

    I am working out where to go next, after I’ve finished Armenia and Georgia. I’ve kind of had enough of post USSR states, charmingly ramshackle as they are. That said, I am drawn to the Stans, particularly Kyrgyzstan, which looks small enough to see in a week

    But where else could I go within striking distance of the Caucasus? I don’t want to double back to europe. Is there anywhere in India that has decent weather in July? Ladakh sounds like it does, but what the hell is Ladakh?!


    I always fancied the area around the Tian Shan mountains in Kazakhstan. It is supposed to be where much of our hard fruit - apples, pears etc - originated. Apparently they still have wild apple forests there.

    Really anywhere along the old Silk Route looks amazing. I think perhaps Samarkand in Uzbekistan looks the best, both because of its amazing architecture and its almost mythical history.
    Yes, the Tien Shan would be on my list too.

    Mrs Flatlander had a tutor that spent a lot of time investigating the origins of the domestic apple and he was the first to confirm it had come from there (using early DNA analysis).

    A book was written...
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Extraordinary-Story-Apple-Barrie-Juniper/dp/1842466550

    Does that make it the actual "Eden"?
    Wow that is brilliant. Travelling the Silk Road has always been my life's ambition. When I was a Kid I imagined doing it by horseback. Then when I got to old for such idiocy I decided it would be better by 4WD. Now I wonder if I could do the whole lot by train.
    Wife and I had tentative plans to do the Trans-Siberian railway next year. Well that’s not going to happen now, and likely not for a few years to come.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,930
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dem maj > 3,000 is a good bet. £50 on for me.

    What is your confidence based on?

    The news and politics narrative this is set against doesn’t fire “give Tory’s bloody nose” as much as at time the amazing turnover in leave seat Shropshire North.

    The anecdotal from this election has not been suggesting a surge of support for Lib Dems - I certainly trust MarqueeMarks opinion from when he went there campaigning for Tories and not finding Lib Dem love.

    And the psychology of this seat is very different than in many other recent Lib Dem gains, not just leave, but don’t the voters there just seem a tad more bloody minded in favour of Tories and less open minded on the issues like partygate or controversial Boris policy like Rwanda, a different breed than may be found in Amersham or Shropshire?

    Those are three reasons why I am feeling cautious - a bullseye is a proper bet, not just on a small win but a comfortable one, what gives you so much confidence.

    At least the Lib Dems have a strong down ramp “it would have happened if it wasn’t for the polarising wedge issue of the strikes.”
    I did a bit of phoning in T and H last night and Monday. It is pretty evenly matched, a fair number of Tory to LD defectors but Tory vote not collapsed either. I also managed to persuade 2 very pro Brexit voters from going to RefUK as it was a straight Tory v LD fight. So if Helen Hurford wins by 2 votes and Boris then avoids another VONC he owes me!
    And you owe the country - big time!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,827
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    UK Ministry of Defence update:

    ”Heavy shelling continues as Russia pushes to envelop the Sieverodonetsk area via Izium in the
    north and Popasna in the south. Russia is highly likely preparing to attempt to deploy a large
    number of reserve units to the Donbas.
    “The Russian authorities have not released the overall number of military casualties in Ukraine
    since 25 March. However, the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic (PR) publishes casualty
    figures for DPR forces. As of 16 June, the DR acknowledged 2128 military personnel killed in
    action, and 8897 wounded, since the start of 2022. The DR casualty rate is equivalent to
    around 55 per cent of its original force, which highlights the extraordinary attrition Russian and
    pro-Russian forces are suffering in the Donbas. It is highly likely that DPR forces are equipped
    with outdated weapons and equipment. On both sides, the ability to generate and deploy
    reserve units to the front is likely becoming increasingly critical to the outcome of the war.”

    I don't think it is so much the reserve units but the speed with which Ukraine can get the new artillery from Germany, the US and the UK deployed on the battlefield. Once they can the Russians may start to run out of options but until they do the attrition rate of well trained soldiers is hard for Ukraine to bear.
    Indeed so. There were reports of the German kit arriving this week, and there’s known to be groups of soldiers training on the British and American heavy kit at the moment.

    Russia does appear pretty close to being out of trained men and decent machines, the heavy guns arriving for Ukraine could make quite the difference to the outcome of the war.
    Once that kit is deployed the counter battery capacity is going to make the Russian artillery look like sitting ducks. If I was Russia I would be focusing all available aircraft and drones on taking this stuff out.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 4,487

    Jonathan said:

    Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

    I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

    The mistake many of us made in 2015 was in thinking that the Lib Dems could effectively run many by-election campaigns in parallel, and thereby hold onto more of their seats. So resources are likely a large part of the explanation.

    The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.

    Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.
    Given that both Conservatives and Labour are struggling, to say the least, to put forward a coherent policy programme at the moment, the LDs could flourish if they could do so.

    But they haven't. Even I, a bit of a political anorak, would struggle to articulate what the LDs actually stand for. I suspect I'm not alone.
  • Roger said:

    Some good lines coming out of this by-election

    'We're going to need a bigger swingometer' is great

    I think the original was Helen Mirren in Calendar Girls 'I think we're going to need bigger buns'

    I noticed that the Lib Dem Richard Foord now only refers to his Tory opponent as 'Boris Johnson's Candidate'

    Jaws, surely?
    Calendar girls working with the famous jaws quote I think.

    Have you seen Helen Mirren in Savage Messiah? A couple of splendid “great whites”
    You mean Roy Scheider wasn't quoting Helen Mirren?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dem maj > 3,000 is a good bet. £50 on for me.

    What is your confidence based on?

    The news and politics narrative this is set against doesn’t fire “give Tory’s bloody nose” as much as at time the amazing turnover in leave seat Shropshire North.

    The anecdotal from this election has not been suggesting a surge of support for Lib Dems - I certainly trust MarqueeMarks opinion from when he went there campaigning for Tories and not finding Lib Dem love.

    And the psychology of this seat is very different than in many other recent Lib Dem gains, not just leave, but don’t the voters there just seem a tad more bloody minded in favour of Tories and less open minded on the issues like partygate or controversial Boris policy like Rwanda, a different breed than may be found in Amersham or Shropshire?

    Those are three reasons why I am feeling cautious - a bullseye is a proper bet, not just on a small win but a comfortable one, what gives you so much confidence.

    At least the Lib Dems have a strong down ramp “it would have happened if it wasn’t for the polarising wedge issue of the strikes.”
    I did a bit of phoning in T and H last night and Monday. It is pretty evenly matched, a fair number of Tory to LD defectors but Tory vote not collapsed either. I also managed to persuade 2 very pro Brexit voters from going to RefUK as it was a straight Tory v LD fight. So if Helen Hurford wins by 2 votes and Boris then avoids another VONC he owes me!
    🤣.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,630
    edited June 22
    Sandpit said:

    UK Ministry of Defence update:

    ”Heavy shelling continues as Russia pushes to envelop the Sieverodonetsk area via Izium in the
    north and Popasna in the south. Russia is highly likely preparing to attempt to deploy a large
    number of reserve units to the Donbas.
    “The Russian authorities have not released the overall number of military casualties in Ukraine
    since 25 March. However, the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic (PR) publishes casualty
    figures for DPR forces. As of 16 June, the DR acknowledged 2128 military personnel killed in
    action, and 8897 wounded, since the start of 2022. The DR casualty rate is equivalent to
    around 55 per cent of its original force, which highlights the extraordinary attrition Russian and
    pro-Russian forces are suffering in the Donbas. It is highly likely that DPR forces are equipped
    with outdated weapons and equipment. On both sides, the ability to generate and deploy
    reserve units to the front is likely becoming increasingly critical
    to the outcome of the war.”

    About that...
    "[Russians] made a gas leak in one of the blocks of flats [of so-called LNR proxy-republic]. After people went to the street, all men were separated from women & children, and then taken to the army,"🇷🇺POW told. He was mobilized in LNR despite a disease
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1539587707021807616
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,708
    edited June 22
    On topic.

    Hmm, overpromise and underdeliver and a small victory seems a bit meh.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,630

    Jonathan said:

    Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

    I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

    The mistake many of us made in 2015 was in thinking that the Lib Dems could effectively run many by-election campaigns in parallel, and thereby hold onto more of their seats. So resources are likely a large part of the explanation.

    The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.

    Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.
    The thing is their great strength in by-elections became their great weakness in 2015.

    In a by-election they're a great repository for protest votes. They can say anything, do anything, stand for anything depending upon what is popular in that locale. No principles necessary.

    They can say to right-leaning voters "vote for us, to stop the Labour Party" or to left-leaning ones "vote for us, to stop the Tories". They can tell NIMBYs that they're against property development, or tell young people they should be able to get on the ladder and not have to rent. Consistency doesn't matter in a by-election where you're just making a point of protest.

    But choosing a government? That's different. If you stand for everything, then you stand for nothing. In 2015 it became a case of telling left-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in the Tories, while telling right-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in Labour.

    If you're going to stand in the middle of the road, you're in danger of being hit by oncoming vehicles.
    And if you way to the right or left, you're in the gutter.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,065
    Jonathan said:

    Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

    I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

    At by elections, voters can say "neither". At a general election, most voters choose one or the other.
  • Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

    I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

    The mistake many of us made in 2015 was in thinking that the Lib Dems could effectively run many by-election campaigns in parallel, and thereby hold onto more of their seats. So resources are likely a large part of the explanation.

    The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.

    Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.
    The thing is their great strength in by-elections became their great weakness in 2015.

    In a by-election they're a great repository for protest votes. They can say anything, do anything, stand for anything depending upon what is popular in that locale. No principles necessary.

    They can say to right-leaning voters "vote for us, to stop the Labour Party" or to left-leaning ones "vote for us, to stop the Tories". They can tell NIMBYs that they're against property development, or tell young people they should be able to get on the ladder and not have to rent. Consistency doesn't matter in a by-election where you're just making a point of protest.

    But choosing a government? That's different. If you stand for everything, then you stand for nothing. In 2015 it became a case of telling left-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in the Tories, while telling right-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in Labour.

    If you're going to stand in the middle of the road, you're in danger of being hit by oncoming vehicles.
    And if you way to the right or left, you're in the gutter.
    You have to pick a side and get past the gutter to get safely to the pavement.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,630
    S.Korea successfully launched a large test satellite with its domestically developed rocket.

    https://spacenews.com/south-korean-rocket-puts-satellites-in-orbit-for-the-first-time-in-second-flight/
    ...KSLV-2 — which cost South Korea an estimated 2 trillion won ($1.6 billion) to develop — is the first step for South Korea’s ambitious space program, including the launch of the nation’s first robotic lunar lander on a domestically developed rocket by 2030. ..
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 1,082

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

    I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

    The mistake many of us made in 2015 was in thinking that the Lib Dems could effectively run many by-election campaigns in parallel, and thereby hold onto more of their seats. So resources are likely a large part of the explanation.

    The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.

    Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.
    The thing is their great strength in by-elections became their great weakness in 2015.

    In a by-election they're a great repository for protest votes. They can say anything, do anything, stand for anything depending upon what is popular in that locale. No principles necessary.

    They can say to right-leaning voters "vote for us, to stop the Labour Party" or to left-leaning ones "vote for us, to stop the Tories". They can tell NIMBYs that they're against property development, or tell young people they should be able to get on the ladder and not have to rent. Consistency doesn't matter in a by-election where you're just making a point of protest.

    But choosing a government? That's different. If you stand for everything, then you stand for nothing. In 2015 it became a case of telling left-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in the Tories, while telling right-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in Labour.

    If you're going to stand in the middle of the road, you're in danger of being hit by oncoming vehicles.
    And if you way to the right or left, you're in the gutter.
    You have to pick a side and get past the gutter to get safely to the pavement.
    I don’t think you’re meant to be driving on the pavement however.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,501

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

    I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

    The mistake many of us made in 2015 was in thinking that the Lib Dems could effectively run many by-election campaigns in parallel, and thereby hold onto more of their seats. So resources are likely a large part of the explanation.

    The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.

    Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.
    The thing is their great strength in by-elections became their great weakness in 2015.

    In a by-election they're a great repository for protest votes. They can say anything, do anything, stand for anything depending upon what is popular in that locale. No principles necessary.

    They can say to right-leaning voters "vote for us, to stop the Labour Party" or to left-leaning ones "vote for us, to stop the Tories". They can tell NIMBYs that they're against property development, or tell young people they should be able to get on the ladder and not have to rent. Consistency doesn't matter in a by-election where you're just making a point of protest.

    But choosing a government? That's different. If you stand for everything, then you stand for nothing. In 2015 it became a case of telling left-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in the Tories, while telling right-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in Labour.

    If you're going to stand in the middle of the road, you're in danger of being hit by oncoming vehicles.
    And if you way to the right or left, you're in the gutter.
    You have to pick a side and get past the gutter to get safely to the pavement.
    Unless it's a dual carriageway.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877

    Roger said:

    Some good lines coming out of this by-election

    'We're going to need a bigger swingometer' is great

    I think the original was Helen Mirren in Calendar Girls 'I think we're going to need bigger buns'

    I noticed that the Lib Dem Richard Foord now only refers to his Tory opponent as 'Boris Johnson's Candidate'

    Jaws, surely?
    Calendar girls working with the famous jaws quote I think.

    Have you seen Helen Mirren in Savage Messiah? A couple of splendid “great whites”
    You mean Roy Scheider wasn't quoting Helen Mirren?
    By a couple of decades I think?

    Wasn’t jaws what made Spielberg’s name?

    Back on topic - the surge of Lib Dem confidence hours before polling opens certainly doesn’t suggest a failure. 🙂
  • Matthew Goodwin is having a crisis.

    He keeps shouting and yet Johnson is just going down down down
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,630

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

    I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

    The mistake many of us made in 2015 was in thinking that the Lib Dems could effectively run many by-election campaigns in parallel, and thereby hold onto more of their seats. So resources are likely a large part of the explanation.

    The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.

    Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.
    The thing is their great strength in by-elections became their great weakness in 2015.

    In a by-election they're a great repository for protest votes. They can say anything, do anything, stand for anything depending upon what is popular in that locale. No principles necessary.

    They can say to right-leaning voters "vote for us, to stop the Labour Party" or to left-leaning ones "vote for us, to stop the Tories". They can tell NIMBYs that they're against property development, or tell young people they should be able to get on the ladder and not have to rent. Consistency doesn't matter in a by-election where you're just making a point of protest.

    But choosing a government? That's different. If you stand for everything, then you stand for nothing. In 2015 it became a case of telling left-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in the Tories, while telling right-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in Labour.

    If you're going to stand in the middle of the road, you're in danger of being hit by oncoming vehicles.
    And if you way to the right or left, you're in the gutter.
    You have to pick a side and get past the gutter to get safely to the pavement.
    I don’t think you’re meant to be driving on the pavement however.

    You're talking to a libertarian, remember.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 4,188
    I am just still struggling to see the evidence that the mood has totally changed from North Shropshire in favour of Johnson.

    I think PB comments is putting a lot of weight on a very small body of local evidence from people who weren't involved in the North Shropshire by election.
  • Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

    I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

    The mistake many of us made in 2015 was in thinking that the Lib Dems could effectively run many by-election campaigns in parallel, and thereby hold onto more of their seats. So resources are likely a large part of the explanation.

    The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.

    Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.
    The thing is their great strength in by-elections became their great weakness in 2015.

    In a by-election they're a great repository for protest votes. They can say anything, do anything, stand for anything depending upon what is popular in that locale. No principles necessary.

    They can say to right-leaning voters "vote for us, to stop the Labour Party" or to left-leaning ones "vote for us, to stop the Tories". They can tell NIMBYs that they're against property development, or tell young people they should be able to get on the ladder and not have to rent. Consistency doesn't matter in a by-election where you're just making a point of protest.

    But choosing a government? That's different. If you stand for everything, then you stand for nothing. In 2015 it became a case of telling left-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in the Tories, while telling right-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in Labour.

    If you're going to stand in the middle of the road, you're in danger of being hit by oncoming vehicles.
    And if you way to the right or left, you're in the gutter.
    You have to pick a side and get past the gutter to get safely to the pavement.
    I don’t think you’re meant to be driving on the pavement however.

    No, but it is where you should stand.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,065
    Travel update: Helsinki.

    No noticeable delay at passport control. Sent straight through without any questions, not even asking to see the Covid passport which they are supposed to AIUI. Had to ask to be stamped in. Maybe travelling with an EU passport holder helped, maybe it's just not as bad as the scare stories being put about.

    Commuter train into the city centre: zero masks in evidence. At most half a dozen out of ~200 passengers on the plane (Norwegian abolished their mask rules a while ago and AFAICT doesn't even recommend them).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,561
    Mr. Sandpit, your post is hopelessly vague.

    You say German kit may be arriving this week but utterly fail to specify whether this is for Ukraine or Russian forces.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,375
    3000+ seats at the next election? Oh be still my beating heart....

    :blush:
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,501

    Double FPT

    FPT

    Leon said:

    PB BRAINS TRUST

    I am working out where to go next, after I’ve finished Armenia and Georgia. I’ve kind of had enough of post USSR states, charmingly ramshackle as they are. That said, I am drawn to the Stans, particularly Kyrgyzstan, which looks small enough to see in a week

    But where else could I go within striking distance of the Caucasus? I don’t want to double back to europe. Is there anywhere in India that has decent weather in July? Ladakh sounds like it does, but what the hell is Ladakh?!


    I always fancied the area around the Tian Shan mountains in Kazakhstan. It is supposed to be where much of our hard fruit - apples, pears etc - originated. Apparently they still have wild apple forests there.

    Really anywhere along the old Silk Route looks amazing. I think perhaps Samarkand in Uzbekistan looks the best, both because of its amazing architecture and its almost mythical history.
    Yes, the Tien Shan would be on my list too.

    Mrs Flatlander had a tutor that spent a lot of time investigating the origins of the domestic apple and he was the first to confirm it had come from there (using early DNA analysis).

    A book was written...
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Extraordinary-Story-Apple-Barrie-Juniper/dp/1842466550

    Does that make it the actual "Eden"?
    Wow that is brilliant. Travelling the Silk Road has always been my life's ambition. When I was a Kid I imagined doing it by horseback. Then when I got to old for such idiocy I decided it would be better by 4WD. Now I wonder if I could do the whole lot by train.
    Afternoon! Off topic, but in passing I have just been reading a biography of Thomas Carlyle and came across your illustrious forebear - one of the few celebrities at the chap's funeral in Ecclefechan (a small place in Dumfriesshire).

    https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=E9d66JHfbMMC&printsec=frontcover&dq=thomas+carlyle&hl=en&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=tyndall&f=false
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,027
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    UK Ministry of Defence update:

    ”Heavy shelling continues as Russia pushes to envelop the Sieverodonetsk area via Izium in the
    north and Popasna in the south. Russia is highly likely preparing to attempt to deploy a large
    number of reserve units to the Donbas.
    “The Russian authorities have not released the overall number of military casualties in Ukraine
    since 25 March. However, the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic (PR) publishes casualty
    figures for DPR forces. As of 16 June, the DR acknowledged 2128 military personnel killed in
    action, and 8897 wounded, since the start of 2022. The DR casualty rate is equivalent to
    around 55 per cent of its original force, which highlights the extraordinary attrition Russian and
    pro-Russian forces are suffering in the Donbas. It is highly likely that DPR forces are equipped
    with outdated weapons and equipment. On both sides, the ability to generate and deploy
    reserve units to the front is likely becoming increasingly critical to the outcome of the war.”

    I don't think it is so much the reserve units but the speed with which Ukraine can get the new artillery from Germany, the US and the UK deployed on the battlefield. Once they can the Russians may start to run out of options but until they do the attrition rate of well trained soldiers is hard for Ukraine to bear.
    Indeed so. There were reports of the German kit arriving this week, and there’s known to be groups of soldiers training on the British and American heavy kit at the moment.

    Russia does appear pretty close to being out of trained men and decent machines, the heavy guns arriving for Ukraine could make quite the difference to the outcome of the war.
    Once that kit is deployed the counter battery capacity is going to make the Russian artillery look like sitting ducks. If I was Russia I would be focusing all available aircraft and drones on taking this stuff out.
    The American M270 MRLS that’s on its way from UK and US, looks horrific to be facing. Thankfully, it’s also nimble on its tracks, and can move some distance between launches and to take cover.
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=2sZLPb37Ff0
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,591
    TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    Some good lines coming out of this by-election

    'We're going to need a bigger swingometer' is great

    I think the original was Helen Mirren in Calendar Girls 'I think we're going to need bigger buns'

    ??

    You mean after the original original, right?
    Jaws was first but this was the funny one (just before the end of the trailer)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmpYu4-Gk94
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,790
    Applicant said:

    Travel update: Helsinki.

    No noticeable delay at passport control. Sent straight through without any questions, not even asking to see the Covid passport which they are supposed to AIUI. Had to ask to be stamped in. Maybe travelling with an EU passport holder helped, maybe it's just not as bad as the scare stories being put about.

    Commuter train into the city centre: zero masks in evidence. At most half a dozen out of ~200 passengers on the plane (Norwegian abolished their mask rules a while ago and AFAICT doesn't even recommend them).

    Travel update: Cambourne.

    No noticeable delay in the waiting area (office); however there was a momentary problem on the landing, when I had to stoop down to pick up a couple of empty tea cups. The journey involved two flights (of stairs). I'm afraid the journey was definitely economy class, and I saw no sign of any stewardesses. There was a minor issue at my destination, as my hands were full when I had to pull open the door to the dining room. Some shuffling allowed me through and to the kitchen sink.

    And I did not need to show my passport once!

    I must say the lack of a stewardess on a flight that was essentially empty (I was the only passenger) is a poor indicator on Jessop Airways. I hear their rail services are better... ;)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,944

    Roger said:

    Some good lines coming out of this by-election

    'We're going to need a bigger swingometer' is great

    I think the original was Helen Mirren in Calendar Girls 'I think we're going to need bigger buns'

    I noticed that the Lib Dem Richard Foord now only refers to his Tory opponent as 'Boris Johnson's Candidate'

    Jaws, surely?
    Calendar girls working with the famous jaws quote I think.

    Have you seen Helen Mirren in Savage Messiah? A couple of splendid “great whites”
    You mean Roy Scheider wasn't quoting Helen Mirren?
    By a couple of decades I think?

    Wasn’t jaws what made Spielberg’s name?

    Back on topic - the surge of Lib Dem confidence hours before polling opens certainly doesn’t suggest a failure. 🙂
    Duel (Spielberg's debut) is a super little film.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,944
    Why do we still refer to majorities in numerical rather than percentage terms?
    Is this a hangover from 2 Party system?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,206
    A good piece pointing out the significant problems that are gathering around Putin.

    https://samf.substack.com/p/paralysis-in-moscow?s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    EPG said:

    I am just still struggling to see the evidence that the mood has totally changed from North Shropshire in favour of Johnson.

    I think PB comments is putting a lot of weight on a very small body of local evidence from people who weren't involved in the North Shropshire by election.

    “ I am just still struggling to see the evidence that the mood has totally changed from North Shropshire in favour of Johnson. “

    That would be the big question to be addressed. But how is it answered?

    If Lib Dems fall short it doesn’t mean Johnson has recovered from North Shropshire half a year ago - it would be Tory spin to suggest that and daft for any of us to believe it - for the two constituency’s could be different creatures psychologically, and the mistake is ours to always presume voters see it and regard it the same nationally not differently from place to place.

    I guess this is what makes a political bet a gamble? How much size and quality of not just data like polling, but canvassing anecdotal and constituency psychological profiling do we actually have when we place bets? We started to assume Wakefield foregone conclusion after one poll. We have’t had one in Devon. We have listened to some PB posters who have canvassed it, and seen snippets of news (which suggested a Boris supporting bloody mindedness goin on down there).

    When North Shropshire happened, Partygate scandal was raging across the news and tv vox pop was getting a lot of “partygate is a betrayal of us” comments. Another question is does the news narrative, what is in and not in the news, actually help or hinder elections?

    There seems to be a hefty split on PB predicting Lib Dem success and predicting Lib Dem failure.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,930

    On topic.

    Hmm, overpromise and underdeliver and a small victory seems a bit meh.

    Good point but... are the LDs doing the ramping here? I assumed that graphic in the Smarkets tweet was created by them for comedic effect, not by the LDs to share their confidence.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 335
    Two observations:

    1. The last LD loss in a "full gas" by election wasn't ten years ago. In the past 6 years, the JDs have gone "full gas" at just five seats (Witney, Richmond Park, C&A, Shropshire North and Tiverton & Honiton), all in by-elections. So far they've won only three. Mind you, the BIG exception (Witney 2016) was fundamentally different in lacking a de facto deal with Labour (in Witney three charismatic, non-LD, Remain, high-energy, Left-leaning candidates shared the anti-Leave vote with the LD), while at T&H there are four non-Tory, Leave, anti-migration candidates to make the Tory's job tougher.

    2. A piece in the local rag yesterday (https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/bookies-predict-tiverton-honiton-election-7233206) showed that, of locals offered a free £1 bet in the Tiverton Betfred shop on the outcome, a "majority" opted for the Tory, beating the LD.

    The T&H 1/4 LD odds reflect the judgement of armchair pundits nationwide. The Betfred straw poll reflects attitudes on the Tiverton High St. Admittedly: mostly male, and who knows how many will actually vote? But at least they're in the constituency. Even LD HQ admits the rail strike's in the way of getting its armies down to Tivvy to get the leaflets out,
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877

    On topic.

    Hmm, overpromise and underdeliver and a small victory seems a bit meh.

    Good point but... are the LDs doing the ramping here? I assumed that graphic in the Smarkets tweet was created by them for comedic effect, not by the LDs to share their confidence.
    It’s got liberty bird on it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,806

    Jonathan said:

    Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

    I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

    The mistake many of us made in 2015 was in thinking that the Lib Dems could effectively run many by-election campaigns in parallel, and thereby hold onto more of their seats. So resources are likely a large part of the explanation.

    The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.

    Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.
    Given that both Conservatives and Labour are struggling, to say the least, to put forward a coherent policy programme at the moment, the LDs could flourish if they could do so.

    But they haven't. Even I, a bit of a political anorak, would struggle to articulate what the LDs actually stand for. I suspect I'm not alone.
    Just filled in my Postal vote for a local By Election

    Of the 3 Candidates LAB/Indep/Green I can only vote for the latter.

    The alternative was spoiling my ballot with a rude message about Starmer but i resisted the urge.

    I expect a close fight between the Ind who is a complete tosser and Lab but hope Green get a few votes despite no Campaign when the other 2 are filling my recycling rapidly

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,035
    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dem maj > 3,000 is a good bet. £50 on for me.

    Where is this available?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,027

    Mr. Sandpit, your post is hopelessly vague.

    You say German kit may be arriving this week but utterly fail to specify whether this is for Ukraine or Russian forces.

    With Olaf Scholz in charge, one can never be sure.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,930
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    PB BRAINS TRUST

    I am working out where to go next, after I’ve finished Armenia and Georgia. I’ve kind of had enough of post USSR states, charmingly ramshackle as they are. That said, I am drawn to the Stans, particularly Kyrgyzstan, which looks small enough to see in a week

    But where else could I go within striking distance of the Caucasus? I don’t want to double back to europe. Is there anywhere in India that has decent weather in July? Ladakh sounds like it does, but what the hell is Ladakh?!


    I always fancied the area around the Tian Shan mountains in Kazakhstan. It is supposed to be where much of our hard fruit - apples, pears etc - originated. Apparently they still have wild apple forests there.

    Really anywhere along the old Silk Route looks amazing. I think perhaps Samarkand in Uzbekistan looks the best, both because of its amazing architecture and its almost mythical history.

    Armenia is very much on the old Silk Road. I did not realise til I came here

    The other day I was driving over the high passes to Lake Sevan and I came across a sublime 12th century caravanserai. The light!



    I envy you your travelling @Leon and despite our deep differences, I really enjoy your updates.

    It would be intriguing to hear your take on sentiment in Kazakhstan. The article linked by @Cicero (https://samf.substack.com/p/paralysis-in-moscow?s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email) suggests that Kazakhstan's President Tokayev is beginning to distance himself from Putin.

    Appreciate give PB insights on Russia's neighbours may not be the prime factor driving your travels though!
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,286
    Where does the moniker "Shropshire North" come from? I see it crop up occasionally, but Parliament has it listed as North Shropshire, as does the Electoral Commission, ONS, Ordnance Survey.. and indeed the Parliamentary Constituencies Order (England) 1983 which created it!

    To be fair, there are few other forums I'd bother to have this discussion, but the principle seems clear enough:

    Borough Constituencies have the compass point afterwards (Walsall North).

    County Constituencies (and they don't come much more 'county' than North Shropshire :)) have them before.

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/how-do-constituencies-get-their-names/
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 8,376
    Scott_xP said:
    I thought the whole point of stablecoins was that they retained their value?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,962
    edited June 22
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

    I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

    The mistake many of us made in 2015 was in thinking that the Lib Dems could effectively run many by-election campaigns in parallel, and thereby hold onto more of their seats. So resources are likely a large part of the explanation.

    The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.

    Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.
    The thing is their great strength in by-elections became their great weakness in 2015.

    In a by-election they're a great repository for protest votes. They can say anything, do anything, stand for anything depending upon what is popular in that locale. No principles necessary.

    They can say to right-leaning voters "vote for us, to stop the Labour Party" or to left-leaning ones "vote for us, to stop the Tories". They can tell NIMBYs that they're against property development, or tell young people they should be able to get on the ladder and not have to rent. Consistency doesn't matter in a by-election where you're just making a point of protest.

    But choosing a government? That's different. If you stand for everything, then you stand for nothing. In 2015 it became a case of telling left-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in the Tories, while telling right-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in Labour.

    If you're going to stand in the middle of the road, you're in danger of being hit by oncoming vehicles.
    And if you way to the right or left, you're in the gutter.
    You have to pick a side and get past the gutter to get safely to the pavement.
    I don’t think you’re meant to be driving on the pavement however.

    You're talking to a libertarian, remember.
    Did you see THIS, @Nigelb?


    “Covid virus likely leaked from Wuhan lab: WHO chief Tedros Ghebreyesus

    “According to WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the most likely explanation was a catastrophic accident at a laboratory in Wuhan, where infections first spread during late 2019, Daily Mail reported.”

    Lol. And thus we come a complete full circle, where we end up admitting what was fucking obvious from the beginning, except to idiots

    Basically, I am right about everything. Including DEM ALIENS

    https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/world/covid-virus-likely-leaked-from-wuhan-lab-says-who-chief-tedros-ghebreyesus-2022-06-20-786016


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,827
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

    I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

    The mistake many of us made in 2015 was in thinking that the Lib Dems could effectively run many by-election campaigns in parallel, and thereby hold onto more of their seats. So resources are likely a large part of the explanation.

    The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.

    Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.
    The thing is their great strength in by-elections became their great weakness in 2015.

    In a by-election they're a great repository for protest votes. They can say anything, do anything, stand for anything depending upon what is popular in that locale. No principles necessary.

    They can say to right-leaning voters "vote for us, to stop the Labour Party" or to left-leaning ones "vote for us, to stop the Tories". They can tell NIMBYs that they're against property development, or tell young people they should be able to get on the ladder and not have to rent. Consistency doesn't matter in a by-election where you're just making a point of protest.

    But choosing a government? That's different. If you stand for everything, then you stand for nothing. In 2015 it became a case of telling left-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in the Tories, while telling right-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in Labour.

    If you're going to stand in the middle of the road, you're in danger of being hit by oncoming vehicles.
    And if you way to the right or left, you're in the gutter.
    You have to pick a side and get past the gutter to get safely to the pavement.
    I don’t think you’re meant to be driving on the pavement however.

    You're talking to a libertarian, remember.
    Did you see THIS, @Nigelb?


    “Covid virus likely leaked from Wuhan lab: WHO chief Tedros Ghebreyesus

    “According to WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the most likely explanation was a catastrophic accident at a laboratory in Wuhan, where infections first spread during late 2019, Daily Mail reported.”

    Lol

    Basically, I am right about everything. Including DEM ALIENS

    https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/world/covid-virus-likely-leaked-from-wuhan-lab-says-who-chief-tedros-ghebreyesus-2022-06-20-786016


    The Democrats are aliens? Explains some of their thinking.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 16,562
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

    I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

    The mistake many of us made in 2015 was in thinking that the Lib Dems could effectively run many by-election campaigns in parallel, and thereby hold onto more of their seats. So resources are likely a large part of the explanation.

    The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.

    Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.
    The thing is their great strength in by-elections became their great weakness in 2015.

    In a by-election they're a great repository for protest votes. They can say anything, do anything, stand for anything depending upon what is popular in that locale. No principles necessary.

    They can say to right-leaning voters "vote for us, to stop the Labour Party" or to left-leaning ones "vote for us, to stop the Tories". They can tell NIMBYs that they're against property development, or tell young people they should be able to get on the ladder and not have to rent. Consistency doesn't matter in a by-election where you're just making a point of protest.

    But choosing a government? That's different. If you stand for everything, then you stand for nothing. In 2015 it became a case of telling left-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in the Tories, while telling right-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in Labour.

    If you're going to stand in the middle of the road, you're in danger of being hit by oncoming vehicles.
    And if you way to the right or left, you're in the gutter.
    You have to pick a side and get past the gutter to get safely to the pavement.
    I don’t think you’re meant to be driving on the pavement however.

    You're talking to a libertarian, remember.
    Did you see THIS, @Nigelb?


    “Covid virus likely leaked from Wuhan lab: WHO chief Tedros Ghebreyesus

    “According to WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the most likely explanation was a catastrophic accident at a laboratory in Wuhan, where infections first spread during late 2019, Daily Mail reported.”

    Lol

    Basically, I am right about everything. Including DEM ALIENS

    https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/world/covid-virus-likely-leaked-from-wuhan-lab-says-who-chief-tedros-ghebreyesus-2022-06-20-786016


    The Democrats are aliens? Explains some of their thinking.
    Where's Will Smith when you need him...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,027
    Scott_xP said:
    Lol, great timing with that one, just as the Tether attached to the US Dollar is thought likely to break its, err, tether, any day now.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,930

    On topic.

    Hmm, overpromise and underdeliver and a small victory seems a bit meh.

    Good point but... are the LDs doing the ramping here? I assumed that graphic in the Smarkets tweet was created by them for comedic effect, not by the LDs to share their confidence.
    It’s got liberty bird on it.
    I can't honestly see the LDs suing Smarkets for misuse of a trademark.
  • Let's freeze the pension for five years. Only fair.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,211

    The Russians have taken 307,000 Ukrainian children over the border, and are going to give them a three-year 're-education' course. Russians can adopt them with minimal background checks.

    *Anyone* who supports Russia in this hideous conflict is supporting evil. I don't care if you like their politics, or take umbrage at the fact the Ukrainians seem to like Boris, or you like anyone who is against us; you are supporting evil.

    Good God. How utterly evil. Absolutely bonkers that some are still havering on this matter....
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 16,562

    The Russians have taken 307,000 Ukrainian children over the border, and are going to give them a three-year 're-education' course. Russians can adopt them with minimal background checks.

    *Anyone* who supports Russia in this hideous conflict is supporting evil. I don't care if you like their politics, or take umbrage at the fact the Ukrainians seem to like Boris, or you like anyone who is against us; you are supporting evil.

    I appreciate your passion against against this sort of thing - I would also appreciate links to sources of information, as is normal on PB when reporting news.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,534
    Flanner said:

    Two observations:

    1. The last LD loss in a "full gas" by election wasn't ten years ago. In the past 6 years, the JDs have gone "full gas" at just five seats (Witney, Richmond Park, C&A, Shropshire North and Tiverton & Honiton), all in by-elections. So far they've won only three. Mind you, the BIG exception (Witney 2016) was fundamentally different in lacking a de facto deal with Labour (in Witney three charismatic, non-LD, Remain, high-energy, Left-leaning candidates shared the anti-Leave vote with the LD), while at T&H there are four non-Tory, Leave, anti-migration candidates to make the Tory's job tougher.

    2. A piece in the local rag yesterday (https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/bookies-predict-tiverton-honiton-election-7233206) showed that, of locals offered a free £1 bet in the Tiverton Betfred shop on the outcome, a "majority" opted for the Tory, beating the LD.

    The T&H 1/4 LD odds reflect the judgement of armchair pundits nationwide. The Betfred straw poll reflects attitudes on the Tiverton High St. Admittedly: mostly male, and who knows how many will actually vote? But at least they're in the constituency. Even LD HQ admits the rail strike's in the way of getting its armies down to Tivvy to get the leaflets out,

    Free bets are usually stake not returned, so betting at 1/4 would be a complete waste of time.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,035
    Flanner said:

    Two observations:

    1. The last LD loss in a "full gas" by election wasn't ten years ago. In the past 6 years, the JDs have gone "full gas" at just five seats (Witney, Richmond Park, C&A, Shropshire North and Tiverton & Honiton), all in by-elections. So far they've won only three. Mind you, the BIG exception (Witney 2016) was fundamentally different in lacking a de facto deal with Labour (in Witney three charismatic, non-LD, Remain, high-energy, Left-leaning candidates shared the anti-Leave vote with the LD), while at T&H there are four non-Tory, Leave, anti-migration candidates to make the Tory's job tougher.

    2. A piece in the local rag yesterday (https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/bookies-predict-tiverton-honiton-election-7233206) showed that, of locals offered a free £1 bet in the Tiverton Betfred shop on the outcome, a "majority" opted for the Tory, beating the LD.

    The T&H 1/4 LD odds reflect the judgement of armchair pundits nationwide. The Betfred straw poll reflects attitudes on the Tiverton High St. Admittedly: mostly male, and who knows how many will actually vote? But at least they're in the constituency. Even LD HQ admits the rail strike's in the way of getting its armies down to Tivvy to get the leaflets out,

    On 2. I would back at 11/4 not 1/4 for a £1 stake irrespective of my expectations, on the basis that 25p isn't really worth the trouble of collecting
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877

    On topic.

    Hmm, overpromise and underdeliver and a small victory seems a bit meh.

    Good point but... are the LDs doing the ramping here? I assumed that graphic in the Smarkets tweet was created by them for comedic effect, not by the LDs to share their confidence.
    It’s got liberty bird on it.
    I can't honestly see the LDs suing Smarkets for misuse of a trademark.
    Nor can I - but you suggested it’s a smarkmartet picture not one libdems used, the branding suggests it’s lifted from a time Lib Dems used it? 🙂
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 635

    Applicant said:

    Travel update: Helsinki.

    No noticeable delay at passport control. Sent straight through without any questions, not even asking to see the Covid passport which they are supposed to AIUI. Had to ask to be stamped in. Maybe travelling with an EU passport holder helped, maybe it's just not as bad as the scare stories being put about.

    Commuter train into the city centre: zero masks in evidence. At most half a dozen out of ~200 passengers on the plane (Norwegian abolished their mask rules a while ago and AFAICT doesn't even recommend them).

    Travel update: Cambourne.

    No noticeable delay in the waiting area (office); however there was a momentary problem on the landing, when I had to stoop down to pick up a couple of empty tea cups. The journey involved two flights (of stairs). I'm afraid the journey was definitely economy class, and I saw no sign of any stewardesses. There was a minor issue at my destination, as my hands were full when I had to pull open the door to the dining room. Some shuffling allowed me through and to the kitchen sink.

    And I did not need to show my passport once!

    I must say the lack of a stewardess on a flight that was essentially empty (I was the only passenger) is a poor indicator on Jessop Airways. I hear their rail services are better... ;)
    Travel update: Somerset.

    Two hour queue through border control into the world's best guarded campsite this morning in 23C blazing sunshine.

    Lovely weather this afternoon, but very hard to find shade.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,048
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    Begs the question why the LDs spectacularly underachieve at General Elections. It's not just resources. Even Clegg at peak underperformed. Odd.

    I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.

    The mistake many of us made in 2015 was in thinking that the Lib Dems could effectively run many by-election campaigns in parallel, and thereby hold onto more of their seats. So resources are likely a large part of the explanation.

    The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.

    Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.
    The thing is their great strength in by-elections became their great weakness in 2015.

    In a by-election they're a great repository for protest votes. They can say anything, do anything, stand for anything depending upon what is popular in that locale. No principles necessary.

    They can say to right-leaning voters "vote for us, to stop the Labour Party" or to left-leaning ones "vote for us, to stop the Tories". They can tell NIMBYs that they're against property development, or tell young people they should be able to get on the ladder and not have to rent. Consistency doesn't matter in a by-election where you're just making a point of protest.

    But choosing a government? That's different. If you stand for everything, then you stand for nothing. In 2015 it became a case of telling left-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in the Tories, while telling right-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in Labour.

    If you're going to stand in the middle of the road, you're in danger of being hit by oncoming vehicles.
    And if you way to the right or left, you're in the gutter.
    You have to pick a side and get past the gutter to get safely to the pavement.
    I don’t think you’re meant to be driving on the pavement however.

    You're talking to a libertarian, remember.

    Sorting books into order is actually something I think he might be quite good at?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,944

    Where does the moniker "Shropshire North" come from? I see it crop up occasionally, but Parliament has it listed as North Shropshire, as does the Electoral Commission, ONS, Ordnance Survey.. and indeed the Parliamentary Constituencies Order (England) 1983 which created it!

    To be fair, there are few other forums I'd bother to have this discussion, but the principle seems clear enough:

    Borough Constituencies have the compass point afterwards (Walsall North).

    County Constituencies (and they don't come much more 'county' than North Shropshire :)) have them before.

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/how-do-constituencies-get-their-names/

    The Durham ones don't. Or is that also an error?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,211

    The Russians have taken 307,000 Ukrainian children over the border, and are going to give them a three-year 're-education' course. Russians can adopt them with minimal background checks.

    *Anyone* who supports Russia in this hideous conflict is supporting evil. I don't care if you like their politics, or take umbrage at the fact the Ukrainians seem to like Boris, or you like anyone who is against us; you are supporting evil.

    I appreciate your passion against against this sort of thing - I would also appreciate links to sources of information, as is normal on PB when reporting news.
    The source is the Russian military.

    I wish people would spend less time on the fence demanding 'sources', and more condemning evil when it is right in front of them.....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,027

    The Russians have taken 307,000 Ukrainian children over the border, and are going to give them a three-year 're-education' course. Russians can adopt them with minimal background checks.

    *Anyone* who supports Russia in this hideous conflict is supporting evil. I don't care if you like their politics, or take umbrage at the fact the Ukrainians seem to like Boris, or you like anyone who is against us; you are supporting evil.

    I appreciate your passion against against this sort of thing - I would also appreciate links to sources of information, as is normal on PB when reporting news.
    The reports came from the Russians themselves - except that they framed it as rescuing these orphans from their horrible life in Ukraine.
  • eekeek Posts: 19,265
    When Tether launched they launched 4 coins USDT, EURT, GBPT and JPNT only the USDT got traction to begin with.

    Now tether for reasons I won't go into here needs to find another currency to toy with...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 13,169

    Let's freeze the pension for five years. Only fair.

    No, let’s keep the triple lock, but tax wealth.

    The poorest pensioners still need support, it’s the greedies who need to pay their fair share.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,962

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    PB BRAINS TRUST

    I am working out where to go next, after I’ve finished Armenia and Georgia. I’ve kind of had enough of post USSR states, charmingly ramshackle as they are. That said, I am drawn to the Stans, particularly Kyrgyzstan, which looks small enough to see in a week

    But where else could I go within striking distance of the Caucasus? I don’t want to double back to europe. Is there anywhere in India that has decent weather in July? Ladakh sounds like it does, but what the hell is Ladakh?!


    I always fancied the area around the Tian Shan mountains in Kazakhstan. It is supposed to be where much of our hard fruit - apples, pears etc - originated. Apparently they still have wild apple forests there.

    Really anywhere along the old Silk Route looks amazing. I think perhaps Samarkand in Uzbekistan looks the best, both because of its amazing architecture and its almost mythical history.

    Armenia is very much on the old Silk Road. I did not realise til I came here

    The other day I was driving over the high passes to Lake Sevan and I came across a sublime 12th century caravanserai. The light!



    I envy you your travelling @Leon and despite our deep differences, I really enjoy your updates.

    It would be intriguing to hear your take on sentiment in Kazakhstan. The article linked by @Cicero (https://samf.substack.com/p/paralysis-in-moscow?s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email) suggests that Kazakhstan's President Tokayev is beginning to distance himself from Putin.

    Appreciate give PB insights on Russia's neighbours may not be the prime factor driving your travels though!
    Well, that’s very kind of you

    However i can only give feedback on Russia-adjacent places I have so far been, namely Georgia and Armenia

    I did get hammered with a Russian war-emigre couple the other day, and they were fascinating, when I have more time (I am in Yerevan airport) I will update

    In short, tho, Georgia is FIERCELY anti-war, anfi-Putin, and generally hostile to Russians of all stripes (even those fleeing the war). No surprise, Russia has invaded Georgia several times. They are desperate to join NATO and the EU and there are Ukraine flags everywhere

    Armenia is much more ambivalent, you literally see Russian and EU and Ukraine flags alongside. Hedging bets or what

    Armenians in general are in favour of “Russia” the great protector against Turks, and Azeris, but I sense they dislike this war and they are fearful. The young would basically love to join the EU and NATO and be safe - or safer. They are notably Anglophile, which is flattering, mainly because of the language: they all want to speak English (seen as the future) and they spurn Russian, which their parents learned

    Also, the Armenian word for “thankyou” is so long and complicated they don’t use it and say Merzi (the French Merci\ instead. Surely the only country on earth with its own language to use a foreign word for TA

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,148

    Let's freeze the pension for five years. Only fair.

    How about keep the triple lock but pay them in crypto....
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    RH1992 said:

    Applicant said:

    Travel update: Helsinki.

    No noticeable delay at passport control. Sent straight through without any questions, not even asking to see the Covid passport which they are supposed to AIUI. Had to ask to be stamped in. Maybe travelling with an EU passport holder helped, maybe it's just not as bad as the scare stories being put about.

    Commuter train into the city centre: zero masks in evidence. At most half a dozen out of ~200 passengers on the plane (Norwegian abolished their mask rules a while ago and AFAICT doesn't even recommend them).

    Travel update: Cambourne.

    No noticeable delay in the waiting area (office); however there was a momentary problem on the landing, when I had to stoop down to pick up a couple of empty tea cups. The journey involved two flights (of stairs). I'm afraid the journey was definitely economy class, and I saw no sign of any stewardesses. There was a minor issue at my destination, as my hands were full when I had to pull open the door to the dining room. Some shuffling allowed me through and to the kitchen sink.

    And I did not need to show my passport once!

    I must say the lack of a stewardess on a flight that was essentially empty (I was the only passenger) is a poor indicator on Jessop Airways. I hear their rail services are better... ;)
    Travel update: Somerset.

    Two hour queue through border control into the world's best guarded campsite this morning in 23C blazing sunshine.

    Lovely weather this afternoon, but very hard to find shade.
    Enjoy!

    It will get a bit muddy though. 😕
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,930

    The Russians have taken 307,000 Ukrainian children over the border, and are going to give them a three-year 're-education' course. Russians can adopt them with minimal background checks.

    *Anyone* who supports Russia in this hideous conflict is supporting evil. I don't care if you like their politics, or take umbrage at the fact the Ukrainians seem to like Boris, or you like anyone who is against us; you are supporting evil.

    Who do you think on here is supporting Russia?

    That aside, I have a feeling this could be a very big issue for years to come. It's a heinous action by the Russian authorities. Far worse than the slaughter of innocent civilians in many ways.

    Russian total fertility rate hasn't been above 2 since the fall of the Soviet Union, so they now appear to be solving their demographic issues by stealing their neighbours children.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 13,169

    The Russians have taken 307,000 Ukrainian children over the border, and are going to give them a three-year 're-education' course. Russians can adopt them with minimal background checks.

    *Anyone* who supports Russia in this hideous conflict is supporting evil. I don't care if you like their politics, or take umbrage at the fact the Ukrainians seem to like Boris, or you like anyone who is against us; you are supporting evil.

    Another day, another post from Mr Jessop in which he tilts at those Russia-supporting windmills.
Sign In or Register to comment.