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The LDs rarely lose when they go into a by-election “full gas” – politicalbetting.com
The LDs rarely lose when they go into a by-election “full gas” – politicalbetting.com
When was the last time the Lib Dems failed to win a Westminster by-election in which they were competitive?Maybe Oldham East in 2011 or before that Bromley in 2006? pic.twitter.com/DukZAbn6m2
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Though yes since then the LDs have won the by elections in Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor, Chesham and Amersham and Shropshire North ie all the by election seats they went for
I guess the LDs are for many primarily a protest vehicle.
I always fancied the area around the Tian Shan mountains in Kazakhstan. It is supposed to be where much of our hard fruit - apples, pears etc - originated. Apparently they still have wild apple forests there.
Really anywhere along the old Silk Route looks amazing. I think perhaps Samarkand in Uzbekistan looks the best, both because of its amazing architecture and its almost mythical history.
However, FPTP is a harsh mistress. The party hasn’t always done well converting support into seats. 2019, the party had the biggest vote share gain of any party, yet that translated to a net loss of 1 seat. In contrast, in 2017, the party saw a slight fall in vote share, but managed to gain half as many seats as at the previous general.
Mrs Flatlander had a tutor that spent a lot of time investigating the origins of the domestic apple and he was the first to confirm it had come from there (using early DNA analysis).
A book was written...
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Extraordinary-Story-Apple-Barrie-Juniper/dp/1842466550
Does that make it the actual "Eden"?
I used to travel to Pakistan a lot. Was very taken with the place, although it was easier back in the 90's - Al Qaeda later blew up the Islamabad hotel I used to stay in.
The mountains are stunning. Murree was a hill station that the Brits used in the heat of summer, a shortish jaunt out of Islamabad. But I had an extraordinary trip into the high mountains - out through Abbotabad (where Bin Laden was shacked up) and on to the Kaghan valley. I stayed above 10,000 feet, but the high Himalayas including K2 were just over there and above you. Stayed at a basic guest house where the menu was goat or mountain-stream trout, both of which were dispatched/caught as ordered.
Then walked up to Lake Saiful Muluk - which is extraordinarily beautiful. The only people I saw there were Pakistanis - a small family party having a picnic and a guy in hiking boots and white tuxedo. As you do.
It used to be very friendly - you could chat to local people with piercing blue eyes, a throw back to the armies of Alexander the Great who went through there. Not sure how long you would last there now as a tourist. I feel very fortunate to have seen it when it was doable.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Saiful_Muluk
They also look likely to be Kingmakers in a hung parliament again as they were in 2010, assuming the current polls are correct, although this time they would go with Starmer Labour whereas in 2010 they went with Cameron's Tories
Armenia is very much on the old Silk Road. I did not realise til I came here
The other day I was driving over the high passes to Lake Sevan and I came across a sublime 12th century caravanserai. The light!
Typically Tories will ensure everywhere in a ward has a deliverer, delivering a couple of leaflets on a regular walk. LDs rarely have a complete ward wide delivery covered. Non target areas will be dropped, people will help where there are holes in targets from elsewhere and deliver more. Consequence is that Tories have more deliverers, but LDs have more active mobile deliverers. Both parties focusing on the best way to use their resources
LDs are also more used to converting (so lots of leaflets) rather than holding seats so the focus is more on delivery rather GOTV, canvassing and a couple of quality leaflets that the Tories focus on.
LDs also have to think about scarcer resources so in house design and printing, etc, etc, which saves money but also gives quick turn around so is agile.
Both parties are focusing on their core strengths and what they have to achieve which is different.
So what has that got to do with a by election?
Well now those rules are broken and what the LDs did in all out elections gives them an advantage in a by election - always.
You have these particular targeting skills that you can apply, but without the financial constraint nor the other wards/constituencies pulling away your resources. So you can flood a by election with keen activists who will deliver all day, apply your targeting techniques and make what is a very large election expense allowance go even further.
PS I used to compare our election expenses to the Tory expenses after an election. The difference in value for money was huge, but if you don't have such a tight budget then why waste time on controlling it. Whereas I had to be ruthless with spending.
'We're going to need a bigger swingometer' is great
I think the original was Helen Mirren in Calendar Girls 'I think we're going to need bigger buns'
I noticed that the Lib Dem Richard Foord now only refers to his Tory opponent as 'Boris Johnson's Candidate'
You mean after the original original, right?
”Heavy shelling continues as Russia pushes to envelop the Sieverodonetsk area via Izium in the
north and Popasna in the south. Russia is highly likely preparing to attempt to deploy a large
number of reserve units to the Donbas.
“The Russian authorities have not released the overall number of military casualties in Ukraine
since 25 March. However, the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic (PR) publishes casualty
figures for DPR forces. As of 16 June, the DR acknowledged 2128 military personnel killed in
action, and 8897 wounded, since the start of 2022. The DR casualty rate is equivalent to
around 55 per cent of its original force, which highlights the extraordinary attrition Russian and
pro-Russian forces are suffering in the Donbas. It is highly likely that DPR forces are equipped
with outdated weapons and equipment. On both sides, the ability to generate and deploy
reserve units to the front is likely becoming increasingly critical to the outcome of the war.”
The other thing is that, for better or for worse, our general elections have now mostly reduced to the question of which of the two party leaders people want to see as Prime Minister. Despite the best efforts of our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson, it's much harder to convince the public that the Lib Dems are at the races in the national contest.
Winning here? Maybe. Winning nationwide? Lol, no.
The news and politics narrative this is set against doesn’t fire “give Tory’s bloody nose” as much as at time the amazing turnover in leave seat Shropshire North.
The anecdotal from this election has not been suggesting a surge of support for Lib Dems - I certainly trust MarqueeMarks opinion from when he went there campaigning for Tories and not finding Lib Dem love.
And the psychology of this seat is very different than in many other recent Lib Dem gains, not just leave, but don’t the voters there just seem a tad more bloody minded in favour of Tories and less open minded on the issues like partygate or controversial Boris policy like Rwanda, a different breed than may be found in Amersham or Shropshire?
Those are three reasons why I am feeling cautious - a bullseye is a proper bet, not just on a small win but a comfortable one, what gives you so much confidence.
At least the Lib Dems have a strong down ramp “it would have happened if it wasn’t for the polarising wedge issue of the strikes.”
Most obviously this puts the party at a disadvantage in that its leader is lesser known, generally less experienced, and not likely to be Prime Minister (Swinson excepted, obvs). Therefore even getting a hearing in the competition for 'next PM' isn't a realistic proposition - and the focus in the media on 'next PM' puts an inexorable squeeze on the LibDem vote, as does all the questioning about who they would back in the event of a NOM.
Thus in the seats where LibDems are potentially competitive in a GE, they have to put a huge amount of effort just to get to the 'first base' of people appreciating the position in their own seat and understanding that whichever of the main parties it is - nearly almost Labour - is out of the running locally, and then to get voters to reinterpret the GE as a local contest - which in terms of the ballot box it of course is, but viewed through the media it seems it is not. However hard you try, some voters can't get beyond the beauty contest for who will be the next PM.
In a by-election they're a great repository for protest votes. They can say anything, do anything, stand for anything depending upon what is popular in that locale. No principles necessary.
They can say to right-leaning voters "vote for us, to stop the Labour Party" or to left-leaning ones "vote for us, to stop the Tories". They can tell NIMBYs that they're against property development, or tell young people they should be able to get on the ladder and not have to rent. Consistency doesn't matter in a by-election where you're just making a point of protest.
But choosing a government? That's different. If you stand for everything, then you stand for nothing. In 2015 it became a case of telling left-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in the Tories, while telling right-leaning voters that a vote for the Lib Dems could let in Labour.
If you're going to stand in the middle of the road, you're in danger of being hit by oncoming vehicles.
Have you seen Helen Mirren in Savage Messiah? A couple of splendid “great whites”
OGH even provided a picture clue for you.
Thought you were in and around the film business
Russia does appear pretty close to being out of trained men and decent machines, the heavy guns arriving for Ukraine could make quite the difference to the outcome of the war.
But they haven't. Even I, a bit of a political anorak, would struggle to articulate what the LDs actually stand for. I suspect I'm not alone.
"[Russians] made a gas leak in one of the blocks of flats [of so-called LNR proxy-republic]. After people went to the street, all men were separated from women & children, and then taken to the army,"🇷🇺POW told. He was mobilized in LNR despite a disease
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1539587707021807616
Hmm, overpromise and underdeliver and a small victory seems a bit meh.
https://spacenews.com/south-korean-rocket-puts-satellites-in-orbit-for-the-first-time-in-second-flight/
...KSLV-2 — which cost South Korea an estimated 2 trillion won ($1.6 billion) to develop — is the first step for South Korea’s ambitious space program, including the launch of the nation’s first robotic lunar lander on a domestically developed rocket by 2030. ..
Wasn’t jaws what made Spielberg’s name?
Back on topic - the surge of Lib Dem confidence hours before polling opens certainly doesn’t suggest a failure. 🙂
He keeps shouting and yet Johnson is just going down down down
I think PB comments is putting a lot of weight on a very small body of local evidence from people who weren't involved in the North Shropshire by election.
No noticeable delay at passport control. Sent straight through without any questions, not even asking to see the Covid passport which they are supposed to AIUI. Had to ask to be stamped in. Maybe travelling with an EU passport holder helped, maybe it's just not as bad as the scare stories being put about.
Commuter train into the city centre: zero masks in evidence. At most half a dozen out of ~200 passengers on the plane (Norwegian abolished their mask rules a while ago and AFAICT doesn't even recommend them).
You say German kit may be arriving this week but utterly fail to specify whether this is for Ukraine or Russian forces.
https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=E9d66JHfbMMC&printsec=frontcover&dq=thomas+carlyle&hl=en&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=tyndall&f=false
https://youtube.com/watch?v=2sZLPb37Ff0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmpYu4-Gk94
No noticeable delay in the waiting area (office); however there was a momentary problem on the landing, when I had to stoop down to pick up a couple of empty tea cups. The journey involved two flights (of stairs). I'm afraid the journey was definitely economy class, and I saw no sign of any stewardesses. There was a minor issue at my destination, as my hands were full when I had to pull open the door to the dining room. Some shuffling allowed me through and to the kitchen sink.
And I did not need to show my passport once!
I must say the lack of a stewardess on a flight that was essentially empty (I was the only passenger) is a poor indicator on Jessop Airways. I hear their rail services are better...
Is this a hangover from 2 Party system?
https://samf.substack.com/p/paralysis-in-moscow?s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
That would be the big question to be addressed. But how is it answered?
If Lib Dems fall short it doesn’t mean Johnson has recovered from North Shropshire half a year ago - it would be Tory spin to suggest that and daft for any of us to believe it - for the two constituency’s could be different creatures psychologically, and the mistake is ours to always presume voters see it and regard it the same nationally not differently from place to place.
I guess this is what makes a political bet a gamble? How much size and quality of not just data like polling, but canvassing anecdotal and constituency psychological profiling do we actually have when we place bets? We started to assume Wakefield foregone conclusion after one poll. We have’t had one in Devon. We have listened to some PB posters who have canvassed it, and seen snippets of news (which suggested a Boris supporting bloody mindedness goin on down there).
When North Shropshire happened, Partygate scandal was raging across the news and tv vox pop was getting a lot of “partygate is a betrayal of us” comments. Another question is does the news narrative, what is in and not in the news, actually help or hinder elections?
There seems to be a hefty split on PB predicting Lib Dem success and predicting Lib Dem failure.
1. The last LD loss in a "full gas" by election wasn't ten years ago. In the past 6 years, the JDs have gone "full gas" at just five seats (Witney, Richmond Park, C&A, Shropshire North and Tiverton & Honiton), all in by-elections. So far they've won only three. Mind you, the BIG exception (Witney 2016) was fundamentally different in lacking a de facto deal with Labour (in Witney three charismatic, non-LD, Remain, high-energy, Left-leaning candidates shared the anti-Leave vote with the LD), while at T&H there are four non-Tory, Leave, anti-migration candidates to make the Tory's job tougher.
2. A piece in the local rag yesterday (https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/bookies-predict-tiverton-honiton-election-7233206) showed that, of locals offered a free £1 bet in the Tiverton Betfred shop on the outcome, a "majority" opted for the Tory, beating the LD.
The T&H 1/4 LD odds reflect the judgement of armchair pundits nationwide. The Betfred straw poll reflects attitudes on the Tiverton High St. Admittedly: mostly male, and who knows how many will actually vote? But at least they're in the constituency. Even LD HQ admits the rail strike's in the way of getting its armies down to Tivvy to get the leaflets out,
Of the 3 Candidates LAB/Indep/Green I can only vote for the latter.
The alternative was spoiling my ballot with a rude message about Starmer but i resisted the urge.
I expect a close fight between the Ind who is a complete tosser and Lab but hope Green get a few votes despite no Campaign when the other 2 are filling my recycling rapidly
It would be intriguing to hear your take on sentiment in Kazakhstan. The article linked by @Cicero (https://samf.substack.com/p/paralysis-in-moscow?s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email) suggests that Kazakhstan's President Tokayev is beginning to distance himself from Putin.
Appreciate give PB insights on Russia's neighbours may not be the prime factor driving your travels though!
To be fair, there are few other forums I'd bother to have this discussion, but the principle seems clear enough:
Borough Constituencies have the compass point afterwards (Walsall North).
County Constituencies (and they don't come much more 'county' than North Shropshire
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/how-do-constituencies-get-their-names/
“Covid virus likely leaked from Wuhan lab: WHO chief Tedros Ghebreyesus
“According to WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the most likely explanation was a catastrophic accident at a laboratory in Wuhan, where infections first spread during late 2019, Daily Mail reported.”
Lol. And thus we come a complete full circle, where we end up admitting what was fucking obvious from the beginning, except to idiots
Basically, I am right about everything. Including DEM ALIENS
https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/world/covid-virus-likely-leaked-from-wuhan-lab-says-who-chief-tedros-ghebreyesus-2022-06-20-786016
*Anyone* who supports Russia in this hideous conflict is supporting evil. I don't care if you like their politics, or take umbrage at the fact the Ukrainians seem to like Boris, or you like anyone who is against us; you are supporting evil.
Two hour queue through border control into the world's best guarded campsite this morning in 23C blazing sunshine.
Lovely weather this afternoon, but very hard to find shade.
Sorting books into order is actually something I think he might be quite good at?
I wish people would spend less time on the fence demanding 'sources', and more condemning evil when it is right in front of them.....
Now tether for reasons I won't go into here needs to find another currency to toy with...
The poorest pensioners still need support, it’s the greedies who need to pay their fair share.
However i can only give feedback on Russia-adjacent places I have so far been, namely Georgia and Armenia
I did get hammered with a Russian war-emigre couple the other day, and they were fascinating, when I have more time (I am in Yerevan airport) I will update
In short, tho, Georgia is FIERCELY anti-war, anfi-Putin, and generally hostile to Russians of all stripes (even those fleeing the war). No surprise, Russia has invaded Georgia several times. They are desperate to join NATO and the EU and there are Ukraine flags everywhere
Armenia is much more ambivalent, you literally see Russian and EU and Ukraine flags alongside. Hedging bets or what
Armenians in general are in favour of “Russia” the great protector against Turks, and Azeris, but I sense they dislike this war and they are fearful. The young would basically love to join the EU and NATO and be safe - or safer. They are notably Anglophile, which is flattering, mainly because of the language: they all want to speak English (seen as the future) and they spurn Russian, which their parents learned
Also, the Armenian word for “thankyou” is so long and complicated they don’t use it and say Merzi (the French Merci\ instead. Surely the only country on earth with its own language to use a foreign word for TA
It will get a bit muddy though. 😕
That aside, I have a feeling this could be a very big issue for years to come. It's a heinous action by the Russian authorities. Far worse than the slaughter of innocent civilians in many ways.
Russian total fertility rate hasn't been above 2 since the fall of the Soviet Union, so they now appear to be solving their demographic issues by stealing their neighbours children.