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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM…..Opinium…..Survation….rolling blog on tonight’s final

SystemSystem Posts: 12,598
edited September 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM…..Opinium…..Survation….rolling blog on tonight’s final polls

This is what the ballot paper looks like (vis @faisalislam )
pic.twitter.com/D95tRyK1hE

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    ICM for the Scotsman at 2100 - let the fun begin...
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Is it me or is that question biased to Yes?

    *cough*
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Exciting times.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,321
    Wonder how it would turn out if the paper listed the options alphabetically? Looks as if it was designed by a hopeful committee.
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    Posted my ballot paper back within a day of getting it...

    Leaves me plenty time to sit on tenterhooks in the house after work, Thursday.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    I thought all the polls were being held back for tomorrow night?

    How exciting though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    edited September 2014
    Wait a minute, 3/4 of the campaign has been acting as though the question is 'Could Scotland be an independent country?' People will be confused at seeing what the actual question is on the paper.

    #ThisIsTheInternetSoIWillTakeNoChancesAndMakeClearIAmJoking
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Here we go then, in terms of mood going into the final 24 hours this is a pretty huge 90 minutes coming up.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Are these all internet polls?
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Three friends down from Scotland this weekend. Interesting timing.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    FPT.. so MikeL sees it...
    MikeL said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    Why are all these polls suddenly coming out a day early?

    THey often get announced the day before, given the papers have to be printed!
    I thought we had dates and times previously announced for some of these?
    Yeah, two are today, four(?) tomorrow, and one Thursday am..
    Rob - you need to add the MORI poll (9 Sept) to your spreadsheet.

    Details on Wiki.
    Thanks, I've been swamped with work recently, so updates have suffered. Surprising how big the blue drop is for this period!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    GIN1138 said:

    I thought all the polls were being held back for tomorrow night?

    How exciting though.

    There's been some confusion over what is meant by "on Wednesday"

    1) Publication for the Wednesday print edition

    or

    2) Publication on Wednesday on the newspaper website for the Thursday print edition
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Carola said:

    Three friends down from Scotland this weekend. Interesting timing.

    Confiscate their passports, see how they like them apples.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Pong said:

    Are these all internet polls?

    Yes
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Hugh said:

    Is it me or is that question biased to Yes?

    *cough*

    The original questions was going to be "Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?"
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Mr. kle4, aye, it's easy to misunderstand or be misunderstood on the interweb.

    Some people think I'm joking about differential front end grip, you know.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    @ MD

    For shame
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Opinium tweeting theirs out in a few minutes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Interesting that there have been no leaks this time (probably because they haven't sent out any embargoed copies)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I thought all the polls were being held back for tomorrow night?

    How exciting though.

    There's been some confusion over what is meant by "on Wednesday"

    1) Publication for the Wednesday print edition

    or

    2) Publication on Wednesday on the newspaper website for the Thursday print edition
    MORI and YouGov will be tomorrow night though I assume?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,784
    FPT

    @Casino

    Yes, I certainly made the comparisons with Quebec and no I wouldn't be flabbergasted if it was 93% (surprised...but not f...d). That isn't quite the same as saying that I thought it would be 93% though. The important point from a betting point of view was that I was sure the betting markets were underestimating turnover, and I'm happy that my advice for people to get on appears to be working out well.

    If I had to commit to a single figure right now I'd guess 84%, but 9 points higher is possible - 9 lower isn't.

    All clear?
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Alistair said:

    Hugh said:

    Is it me or is that question biased to Yes?

    *cough*

    The original questions was going to be "Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?"
    Aye no need for the "do you agree" double negative ish stuff.

    But I'd have gone for "Should Scotland become independent from the UK?"

    Or "Is Gordon Brown ace and David Cameron a chinless born loser?"

    Something like that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,862
    @Pete_the_Punter: yup, clear now. It seems we were arguing at cross purposes.

    For the record, though, I placed my turnout bets ages ago back in July - so it was an early independent spot;-)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I thought all the polls were being held back for tomorrow night?

    How exciting though.

    There's been some confusion over what is meant by "on Wednesday"

    1) Publication for the Wednesday print edition

    or

    2) Publication on Wednesday on the newspaper website for the Thursday print edition
    MORI and YouGov will be tomorrow night though I assume?
    Yes, we get two Mori polls, one tomorrow night, and one Thursday morning.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    Carola said:

    Opinium tweeting theirs out in a few minutes.

    Do you know on what account? I'm gonna set up my nodding bird on the F5 key.

    Unless I am mistaken, the last figures were : 46.5 Yes to 53.5 No (42 Yes, 49 No, 7 DK)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,965
    Where were the police? Where is Salmond's govt? Is the leader of the Labour Party to be hunted by a mob and nobody does anything?- tweet from Galloway
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    It's the waiting, the waiting.

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 13m
    Becoming pretty historic that they haven't been leaked yet.

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 6m
    @britainelects The polling industry's learned lot in past 10 days. No embargoed copies and ultra secrecy. Even I don't know!
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,137
    Hugh said:

    Is it me or is that question biased to Yes?

    *cough*

    It is you.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Is it the international norm to permit, or to prohibit, polls in the final couple of days?

    Is it a good thing to permit them?
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    RobD said:

    Carola said:

    Opinium tweeting theirs out in a few minutes.

    Do you know on what account? I'm gonna set up my nodding bird on the F5 key.

    Unless I am mistaken, the last figures were : 46.5 Yes to 53.5 No (42 Yes, 49 No, 7 DK)

    @OpiniumResearch 5m

    #indyref YES/NO #indypoll out in a few minutes... @Telegraph
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,784
    Casino_Royale said:

    @Pete_the_Punter: yup, clear now. It seems we were arguing at cross purposes.

    For the record, though, I placed my turnout bets ages ago back in July - so it was an early independent spot;-)

    Well done.

    I'm kicking myself for not putting more on. Spin's opening bid of 79 was ridiculously low,

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I thought all the polls were being held back for tomorrow night?

    How exciting though.

    There's been some confusion over what is meant by "on Wednesday"

    1) Publication for the Wednesday print edition

    or

    2) Publication on Wednesday on the newspaper website for the Thursday print edition
    MORI and YouGov will be tomorrow night though I assume?
    Yes, we get two Mori polls, one tomorrow night, and one Thursday morning.
    Thanks once again. :D

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    edited September 2014
    Anyone got a link to this, or is it another one of Dan's sources?

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 52s

    Labour saying it will cancel its party conference if Scotland votes "Yes". Does Ed Miliband actually want anyone in England to vote Labour?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Alan Roden ‏@AlanRoden 50s

    AMENDED: new @Survation #indyref poll for the Scottish Daily Mail will be published at 10pm.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Arsenal are going down the tubes. It's time Wenger was retired to Scotland.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone got a link to this, or is it another one of Dan's sources?

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 52s

    Labour saying it will cancel its party conference if Scotland votes "Yes". Does Ed Miliband actually want anyone in England to vote Labour?

    @mehdirhasan 6m

    "Labour To 'Cancel Annual Party Conference' If Scotland Votes 'Yes'" - my exclusive for HuffPost UK: http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/5831418?1410896690 …
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    Carola said:

    RobD said:

    Carola said:

    Opinium tweeting theirs out in a few minutes.

    Do you know on what account? I'm gonna set up my nodding bird on the F5 key.

    Unless I am mistaken, the last figures were : 46.5 Yes to 53.5 No (42 Yes, 49 No, 7 DK)

    @OpiniumResearch 5m

    #indyref YES/NO #indypoll out in a few minutes... @Telegraph
    Their definition of a few is a bit crap.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    ‏@AlanRoden 1m

    AMENDED: new @Survation #indyref poll for the Scottish Daily Mail will be published at 10pm.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,862
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    @Pete_the_Punter: yup, clear now. It seems we were arguing at cross purposes.

    For the record, though, I placed my turnout bets ages ago back in July - so it was an early independent spot;-)

    Well done.

    I'm kicking myself for not putting more on. Spin's opening bid of 79 was ridiculously low,

    Me too. But then I'm a total mess when I lose too, and wonder why I bet in the first place.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    RobD said:

    Carola said:

    RobD said:

    Carola said:

    Opinium tweeting theirs out in a few minutes.

    Do you know on what account? I'm gonna set up my nodding bird on the F5 key.

    Unless I am mistaken, the last figures were : 46.5 Yes to 53.5 No (42 Yes, 49 No, 7 DK)

    @OpiniumResearch 5m

    #indyref YES/NO #indypoll out in a few minutes... @Telegraph
    Their definition of a few is a bit crap.
    Like waiting for a kettle to boil.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Carola said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyone got a link to this, or is it another one of Dan's sources?

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 52s

    Labour saying it will cancel its party conference if Scotland votes "Yes". Does Ed Miliband actually want anyone in England to vote Labour?

    @mehdirhasan 6m

    "Labour To 'Cancel Annual Party Conference' If Scotland Votes 'Yes'" - my exclusive for HuffPost UK: http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/5831418?1410896690 …
    Many thanks
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    zerohedge ‏@zerohedge 2m
    Latest ICM poll: 52% Yes, 48% No
  • RoygbivRoygbiv Posts: 4
    Yes: 52 No 48
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,498
    Boom.


    zerohedge ‏@zerohedge 3 mins

    Latest ICM poll: 52% Yes, 48% No
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Poor research analysts, hope they're claiming docket for tonight.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    edited September 2014
    @britainelects now

    Scottish Independence Poll (ICM): YES - 48% NO - 52%

    @britainelects 38s

    Scottish Independence Poll (ICM): YES - 41% NO - 45% (DK) - 14%
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m
    Scottish Independence Poll (ICM):
    YES - 41%
    NO - 45%
    (DK) - 14%
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    edited September 2014
    RobD - thanks. The 07/09/14 average is now finalised.

    Lab lead 3.68% - up from 3.53% in the previous period - so not a huge change in the lead. But Con and Lab both down significantly
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    I can't see a credible link for 52/48 ICM. Not sure if it's rumour or not
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,862
    Eh? Which way round is it?
  • jam2809jam2809 Posts: 62
    It 52% NO.
    Here http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-icm-puts-yes-up-to-48-1-3543614
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Er... so Yes and No are both winning from the same poll?

    First ever quantum poll, it seems. But surely by publishing it only one result becomes possible?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    edited September 2014
    Ugh!
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited September 2014
    Decent enough I guess, yet another poll with no in front.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    Terrible poll for No, minus 45%! ;-)
    The first of tonight's IndyRef polls. ICM for Scotsman has
    YES 41%
    NO -45%
    DK 14%
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Mr. Royale, it's never nice to lose a bet, but luck does play a role (well, it does with F1). The golden rule of only betting what you can afford to lose is one to live by.

    [I was a bit miffed when Lotus actually managed to get both cars to finish the last race].
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,835
    MikeK said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m
    Scottish Independence Poll (ICM):
    YES - 41%
    NO - 45%
    (DK) - 14%

    So really 59:41, and a fair few of the 'yesers' will have secret second thoughts on the day... so let's say 62:38 as the final score.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,498
    Boom, or not boom?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    So NO leads with ICM yes?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited September 2014
    Sky just said the other (Opinium?) is the same...
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    15% Don't Know.

    Either "feck it let's do this" or "nae, too risky" last-minute pencil-hoverers are going to decide the fate of our nation.

  • RoygbivRoygbiv Posts: 4
    rcs1000 said:

    MikeK said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m
    Scottish Independence Poll (ICM):
    YES - 41%
    NO - 45%
    (DK) - 14%

    So really 59:41, and a fair few of the 'yesers' will have secret second thoughts on the day... so let's say 62:38 as the final score.
    What do you base that on?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    GIN1138 said:

    So NO leads with ICM yes?

    Yes, No leads with ICM.

    Heh.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Boom, or not boom?

    Not boom, but good (for Yes)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,498
    Kevin Pringle ‏@KevinJPringle 2 mins
    New #ICM #indyref poll for @TheScotsman shows a 6-point narrowing of gap: Yes 48% (+3), No 52% (-3). #VoteYes has the momentum. #letsdothis.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Ben Riley-Smith ‏@benrileysmith 25s

    One day left and both ICM + @Telegraph Opinium poll predict 4pt No victory.
    No 52
    Yes 48
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Hugh said:

    15% Don't Know.

    Either "feck it let's do this" or "nae, too risky" last-minute pencil-hoverers are going to decide the fate of our nation.

    DK includes "won't say" ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,835
    Roygbiv said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MikeK said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m
    Scottish Independence Poll (ICM):
    YES - 41%
    NO - 45%
    (DK) - 14%

    So really 59:41, and a fair few of the 'yesers' will have secret second thoughts on the day... so let's say 62:38 as the final score.
    What do you base that on?
    The fact that pretty much every referendum in history has had the status quo outperform the polls on the day.

    And the fact that admitting that you agree with the cynically negative Project Fear makes you look like a scary cat.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    ICM - No 52, Yes 48 - Permission not to panic Sir....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Yes out to 4.8...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    edited September 2014
    Opinium No 52 (-1) Yes 48 (+1) changes since last week
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    It will be 60 - 40 +/-3 for no.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,984
    So are there any books opened for the following bets:

    How big was Shaun Wright's payoff ?

    How long will it be before Shaun Wright is given another public sector fatcat non-job ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Kevin Pringle ‏@KevinJPringle 2 mins
    New #ICM #indyref poll for @TheScotsman shows a 6-point narrowing of gap: Yes 48% (+3), No 52% (-3). #VoteYes has the momentum. #letsdothis.

    He's talking pish. Yes' lead has been wiped out
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Kevin Pringle ‏@KevinJPringle 2 mins
    New #ICM #indyref poll for @TheScotsman shows a 6-point narrowing of gap: Yes 48% (+3), No 52% (-3). #VoteYes has the momentum. #letsdothis.

    He's talking pish. Yes' lead has been wiped out
    Was it their online poll showing the big point Yes lead a few days ago?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    I don't like the latest direction of travel, but honestly I'll take what I can get It's not like a 20 point No lead would put Yes off, but certainly that lead is not going to terrify them given how volatile things have been.

    Keep up the NO hope....wait
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,498
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Kevin Pringle ‏@KevinJPringle 2 mins
    New #ICM #indyref poll for @TheScotsman shows a 6-point narrowing of gap: Yes 48% (+3), No 52% (-3). #VoteYes has the momentum. #letsdothis.

    He's talking pish. Yes' lead has been wiped out
    So it wasn't an outlier then?
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    The best solution to the West Lothian question is for the Tories to pull their fingers out and get winning some seats in Scotland. An imploding SNP post referendum veering leftwards is probably their best chance to do that.
  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    edited September 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Opinium No 52 (-1) Yes 48 (+1) changes since last week

    2% voting both ways last week?

    edit - fixed already.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Kevin Pringle ‏@KevinJPringle 2 mins
    New #ICM #indyref poll for @TheScotsman shows a 6-point narrowing of gap: Yes 48% (+3), No 52% (-3). #VoteYes has the momentum. #letsdothis.

    He's talking pish. Yes' lead has been wiped out
    Was it their online poll showing the big point Yes lead a few days ago?
    Yes
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,137
    Ishmael_X said:

    Is it the international norm to permit, or to prohibit, polls in the final couple of days?

    Is it a good thing to permit them?

    To permit, I think.
    Yes, otherwise you would have to rely on the leaked "private polling" or "canvas returns" of the participants.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Kevin Pringle ‏@KevinJPringle 2 mins
    New #ICM #indyref poll for @TheScotsman shows a 6-point narrowing of gap: Yes 48% (+3), No 52% (-3). #VoteYes has the momentum. #letsdothis.

    He's talking pish. Yes' lead has been wiped out
    So it wasn't an outlier then?
    I didn't say that, he's talking pish, making an incorrect comparison.
  • RoygbivRoygbiv Posts: 4
    rcs1000 said:

    Roygbiv said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MikeK said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m
    Scottish Independence Poll (ICM):
    YES - 41%
    NO - 45%
    (DK) - 14%

    So really 59:41, and a fair few of the 'yesers' will have secret second thoughts on the day... so let's say 62:38 as the final score.
    What do you base that on?
    The fact that pretty much every referendum in history has had the status quo outperform the polls on the day.

    And the fact that admitting that you agree with the cynically negative Project Fear makes you look like a scary cat.
    I don't believe there are shy no voters. Why would they be afraid of telling a pollster? Would the girl on the minimum wage from the polling company on the phone judge you?

    Basically, it really is this close - I can guarantee it. There was some internal polling done by one of the sides showing 41-41 with 18 undecided.

    This is edge of the knife stuff, believe me. If the union survives, it'll be by a thread.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    SeanT said:

    Fascinating rumours that the ICM poll was leaked early, the wrong way round, by an FX dealer (probably in EVIL TORY LONDON) so as to make a very quick killing on the £

    What an utter bastard. Totally unbecoming of the decent financiers of this country.
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    If "yes" is sustained by a large number of "non-voters" and it looks like "no" will win then the non-voters might not bother...
  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    alex said:

    The best solution to the West Lothian question is for the Tories to pull their fingers out and get winning some seats in Scotland. An imploding SNP post referendum veering leftwards is probably their best chance to do that.

    twaddle. the best solution is for any devolution to be symmetrical.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    alex said:

    The best solution to the West Lothian question is for the Tories to pull their fingers out and get winning some seats in Scotland. An imploding SNP post referendum veering leftwards is probably their best chance to do that.

    Maybe, but with what is expected to be a very close contest, even with a NO win I can't see the SNP imploding. They seem pretty well settled, and can exploit the Team Scotland vs Team Westminster thing for all they can.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,736
    RobD said:

    Terrible poll for No, minus 45%! ;-)

    The first of tonight's IndyRef polls. ICM for Scotsman has
    YES 41%
    NO -45%
    DK 14%
    LOL, Rob.

    But starting to look hopeful. Go Gordon!
    Ishmael_X said:

    Is it the international norm to permit, or to prohibit, polls in the final couple of days?

    Is it a good thing to permit them?

    Most countries allow them - France is a notable exception, though they get systematically leaked in neighbouring countries. Hard to prevent in the internet age.

  • alexalex Posts: 244
    edited September 2014
    It is difficult to believe that "genuine" undecideds are going to be anything but strongly for the status quo come polling day. And i think "no"s are far more likely to kid themselves that they are undecided.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Opinium site ctashed
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Brown making a good fist of it with a (very old looking) Dimbleby on BBC1 (why isn't Andrew Neil doing this?) Salmond up next....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    Roygbiv said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Roygbiv said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MikeK said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m
    Scottish Independence Poll (ICM):
    YES - 41%
    NO - 45%
    (DK) - 14%

    So really 59:41, and a fair few of the 'yesers' will have secret second thoughts on the day... so let's say 62:38 as the final score.
    What do you base that on?
    The fact that pretty much every referendum in history has had the status quo outperform the polls on the day.

    And the fact that admitting that you agree with the cynically negative Project Fear makes you look like a scary cat.
    I don't believe there are shy no voters. Why would they be afraid of telling a pollster? Would the girl on the minimum wage from the polling company on the phone judge you?


    I tend to agree. I know pollsters have underestimated party support, most notably in 1992, as shy voters even though I don't understand why it would be the case back then either, but it seems to be based on nothing now. It's not as though people might feel unwilling to admit they support a long standing and unpopular government, it's a one off question, either you support it, or don't, or are genuinely clueless. I cannot see many hiding away.
  • jam2809jam2809 Posts: 62
    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Fascinating rumours that the ICM poll was leaked early, the wrong way round, by an FX dealer (probably in EVIL TORY LONDON) so as to make a very quick killing on the £

    What an utter bastard. Totally unbecoming of the decent financiers of this country.
    I believe so also; the tweet of 52 YES came from a financial source. I hope the FSA investigate...
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Glad to see rcs and others speaking sense on here.

    I have said all along it will be 40-60.

    LOL salmond and sturgeon humiliation and cheerio SNP as a political force!

    Is malcolmg back yet? Should we let him back on Thursday night?!!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,984
    And in reply to Charles from the afternoon ..

    Does Bavaria have a zero tax zone along its border with Baden-Wurtemburg ?
    Does Victoria have a zero tax zone along its border with New South Wales ?
    Does New Jersey have a zero tax zone along its border with New York ?

    etc, etc, etc

    Not to mention the most likely movers to a zero tax zone in England would be English businesses from other parts of England rather than Scottish businesses, especially if English tax rates are raised elsewhere.

    In other words the whole premise is crap, but crap being used as an argument to continue the treatment of English people as second class citizens.

    BTW I wasn't referring to you as an anti-English bigot. They tend to be on the political left. But I was a little surprised that you gave any interest in the anti-English drivel which you posted.

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,784
    Alistair said:

    Opinium site ctashed

    you mean it's dtwn? oh stit!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    jam2809 said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Fascinating rumours that the ICM poll was leaked early, the wrong way round, by an FX dealer (probably in EVIL TORY LONDON) so as to make a very quick killing on the £

    What an utter bastard. Totally unbecoming of the decent financiers of this country.
    I believe so also; the tweet of 52 YES came from a financial source. I hope the FSA investigate...
    The FSA don't exist any more, it is the PRA these days
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    CarlottaVance said:

    Brown making a good fist of it with a (very old looking) Dimbleby on BBC1 (why isn't Andrew Neil doing this?) Salmond up next....

    He's smashing it all round the park.

    Oh for politicians of Brown's stature in these days of political pygmies like Cameron.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Two questions....

    What happened when Ed was campaigning today?

    What was Salmond like on Sky news? I couldn't bring myself to watch.

  • jam2809jam2809 Posts: 62
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    jam2809 said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Fascinating rumours that the ICM poll was leaked early, the wrong way round, by an FX dealer (probably in EVIL TORY LONDON) so as to make a very quick killing on the £

    What an utter bastard. Totally unbecoming of the decent financiers of this country.
    I believe so also; the tweet of 52 YES came from a financial source. I hope the FSA investigate...
    The FSA don't exist any more, it is the PRA these days
    Thank you. Only recently back in the country...
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