Fascinating rumours that the ICM poll was leaked early, the wrong way round, by an FX dealer (probably in EVIL TORY LONDON) so as to make a very quick killing on the £
What an utter bastard. Totally unbecoming of the decent financiers of this country.
London is closed.. FX has been trading in NY since 5. And pound has done basically nothing..
The best solution to the West Lothian question is for the Tories to pull their fingers out and get winning some seats in Scotland. An imploding SNP post referendum veering leftwards is probably their best chance to do that.
Maybe, but with what is expected to be a very close contest, even with a NO win I can't see the SNP imploding. They seem pretty well settled, and can exploit the Team Scotland vs Team Westminster thing for all they can.
Yeah I'd agree with that. It's Labour and the Lib Dems who may be forced onto the defensive in May. The SNP can fight on a "don't let Westminster do the dirty on Devo Max - vote SNP to hold the balance in London" which if they got 20 -25 seats they might together with a licorice all sorts of Plaid, Green, SDLP, DUP, UKIP, and Lib Dens
Fascinating rumours that the ICM poll was leaked early, the wrong way round, by an FX dealer (probably in EVIL TORY LONDON) so as to make a very quick killing on the £
What an utter bastard. Totally unbecoming of the decent financiers of this country.
I believe so also; the tweet of 52 YES came from a financial source. I hope the FSA investigate...
The FSA don't exist any more, it is the PRA these days
On a related note, whenever I hear the acronym FCA, I can't help but think of Liquidator Brunt. ;')
Kevin Pringle @KevinJPringle 2 mins New #ICM #indyref poll for @TheScotsman shows a 6-point narrowing of gap: Yes 48% (+3), No 52% (-3). #VoteYes has the momentum. #letsdothis.
He's talking pish. Yes' lead has been wiped out
So it wasn't an outlier then?
I didn't say that, he's talking pish, making an incorrect comparison.
That's the way the Scotsman are reporting it (not that I'm reluctant to accept they produce pish).
'Scottish independence poll: ICM puts Yes up to 48%
An ICM poll compiled in August put support for Yes at 45 per cent when undecideds were taken out – indicating that the Yes campaign has gained three percentage points to 48 per cent. This has been accompanied by a slip of three percentage points for a No vote which has fallen from 55 per cent to 52 per cent over the same period.'
Can anyone answer this simple question on "Devomax"? If Scotland is given control of all income tax raised in Scotland (not sure how this presumably varying amount fits with maintenance of Barnett differentials), then does it not instantly become more expensive for the UK govt agencies to place workforces in Scotland? (because in England(/Wales) income tax returns to the Treasury, whereas in Scotland it goes to Holyrood).
Fascinating rumours that the ICM poll was leaked early, the wrong way round, by an FX dealer (probably in EVIL TORY LONDON) so as to make a very quick killing on the £
What an utter bastard. Totally unbecoming of the decent financiers of this country.
I believe so also; the tweet of 52 YES came from a financial source. I hope the FSA investigate...
The FSA don't exist any more, it is the PRA these days
On a related note, whenever I hear the acronym FCA, I can't help but think of Liquidator Brunt. ;')
Met Jeffrey Coombs a few years ago, I've always preferred him as Weyoun
Glad to see rcs and others speaking sense on here.
I have said all along it will be 40-60.
LOL salmond and sturgeon humiliation and cheerio SNP as a political force!
Is malcolmg back yet? Should we let him back on Thursday night?!!
The more the merrier under any circumstances. Given how many times I've been wrong (and I hope to be with this one, given I am predicting a Yes win), wouldn't want to set a precedent about that even if it happens.
Fascinating rumours that the ICM poll was leaked early, the wrong way round, by an FX dealer (probably in EVIL TORY LONDON) so as to make a very quick killing on the £
What an utter bastard. Totally unbecoming of the decent financiers of this country.
I believe so also; the tweet of 52 YES came from a financial source. I hope the FSA investigate...
The FSA don't exist any more, it is the PRA these days
On a related note, whenever I hear the acronym FCA, I can't help but think of Liquidator Brunt. ;')
Met Jeffrey Coombs a few years ago, I've always preferred him as Weyoun
Kevin Pringle @KevinJPringle 2 mins New #ICM #indyref poll for @TheScotsman shows a 6-point narrowing of gap: Yes 48% (+3), No 52% (-3). #VoteYes has the momentum. #letsdothis.
He's talking pish. Yes' lead has been wiped out
So it wasn't an outlier then?
I didn't say that, he's talking pish, making an incorrect comparison.
That's the way the Scotsman are reporting it (not that I'm reluctant to accept they produce pish).
'Scottish independence poll: ICM puts Yes up to 48%
An ICM poll compiled in August put support for Yes at 45 per cent when undecideds were taken out – indicating that the Yes campaign has gained three percentage points to 48 per cent. This has been accompanied by a slip of three percentage points for a No vote which has fallen from 55 per cent to 52 per cent over the same period.'
It struck me that if Cameron had done something about the English democratic deficit during the past four years we would have the following results:
Scots happier with devomax English happier with EV4EL Unionists happier with a more secure union Conservatives happier with the electoral benefits
But like so many of the things ** Cameron inherited from Labour he has seen no reason to change things.
Cameron really is Continuity Blair.
** such as an economy based on debt fueled wealth consumption, rising house prices with falling home ownership, open door immigration, EU appeasement, Middle Eastern warmongering, replacing proper power stations with windmills, nanny state meddling, doing nothing about public sector fatcats and the toleration of thousands of child rapes
Fascinating rumours that the ICM poll was leaked early, the wrong way round, by an FX dealer (probably in EVIL TORY LONDON) so as to make a very quick killing on the £
What an utter bastard. Totally unbecoming of the decent financiers of this country.
I believe so also; the tweet of 52 YES came from a financial source. I hope the FSA investigate...
The FSA don't exist any more, it is the PRA these days
On a related note, whenever I hear the acronym FCA, I can't help but think of Liquidator Brunt. ;')
Met Jeffrey Coombs a few years ago, I've always preferred him as Weyoun
I got polled once and said Conservative even though I'd gone Kipperish by then. I don't know why you get the shyness -sometimes you just do. It's not like a machine is asking you. It doesn't feel anonymous.
Are you a Unionist who has not started panicking yet? Well, the starting gun just fired.
The strength of my unionism has fallen dramatically since the stitch-up from the main parties enshrining permanently higher spending levels in Scotland than England. That should be something for the nation as a whole to decide via parliament.
Fascinating rumours that the ICM poll was leaked early, the wrong way round, by an FX dealer (probably in EVIL TORY LONDON) so as to make a very quick killing on the £
What an utter bastard. Totally unbecoming of the decent financiers of this country.
I believe so also; the tweet of 52 YES came from a financial source. I hope the FSA investigate...
The FSA don't exist any more, it is the PRA these days
On a related note, whenever I hear the acronym FCA, I can't help but think of Liquidator Brunt. ;')
Met Jeffrey Coombs a few years ago, I've always preferred him as Weyoun
Weyoun is brilliant, one of my favourites.
Mine too, Garak was my favourite.
Yep! Always loved the Garak-heavy episodes. Especially "In the Pale Moonlight"
So really 59:41, and a fair few of the 'yesers' will have secret second thoughts on the day... so let's say 62:38 as the final score.
What do you base that on?
The fact that pretty much every referendum in history has had the status quo outperform the polls on the day.
And the fact that admitting that you agree with the cynically negative Project Fear makes you look like a scary cat.
I don't believe there are shy no voters. Why would they be afraid of telling a pollster? Would the girl on the minimum wage from the polling company on the phone judge you?
People die all the time because they are embarrassed to discuss the appearance of blood in their faeces with a doctor. Why would they be embarrassed to tell a doctor? Even if you thought he was going to judge you what on earth would he have to judge you about?
Showing that behaviour is irrational, is not the same as showing that it doesn't happen.
Fascinating rumours that the ICM poll was leaked early, the wrong way round, by an FX dealer (probably in EVIL TORY LONDON) so as to make a very quick killing on the £
What an utter bastard. Totally unbecoming of the decent financiers of this country.
I believe so also; the tweet of 52 YES came from a financial source. I hope the FSA investigate...
The FSA don't exist any more, it is the PRA these days
On a related note, whenever I hear the acronym FCA, I can't help but think of Liquidator Brunt. ;')
Met Jeffrey Coombs a few years ago, I've always preferred him as Weyoun
Weyoun is brilliant, one of my favourites.
Mine too, Garak was my favourite.
Yep! Always loved the Garak-heavy episodes. Especially "In the Pale Moonlight"
That was my favourite ever Trek episode.
Loved the Improbable Cause/The Die is Cast two parter.
Gordon Smart @gordonsmart 35m I think it's time for @ScottishSun to have our say on the #indyref. Coming soon...
Best for them to go with Yes, surely? It's very close but NO has still led in the polls, so if the great masses of non-voters for example swing it for yes as they might, the Sun can claim to have been a major influence on the final stretch regardless of the truth of that.
52-48 will probably be about the poll of polls final total, Yes may be ahead in 1 or 2 polls, No have a wider lead in others but that looks where we are headed
Are you a Unionist who has not started panicking yet? Well, the starting gun just fired.
The strength of my unionism has fallen dramatically since the stitch-up from the main parties enshrining permanently higher spending levels in Scotland than England. That should be something for the nation as a whole to decide via parliament.
Of course Yes will still be hoping for a record turnout of non-voters to squeeze it just past the post, but I cannot see why polls will not have picked them up, they are all predicting a high turnout
Now that's not to say that GCHQ/MI5/MI6 are ballot-stuffing "proper" online polls, it's more likely they target voodoo polls of the sort carried by news websites, but they do have an interest in manipulating opinion polls.
It will be close, but it looks like a clear, if not substantial No lead. Looks like Scots will give Yes a high enough total to ensure Devomax, but not so high they actually break-up the UK!
It will be close, but it looks like a clear, if not substantial No lead. Looks like Scots will give Yes a high enough total to ensure Devomax, but not so high they actually break-up the UK!
Fascinating rumours that the ICM poll was leaked early, the wrong way round, by an FX dealer (probably in EVIL TORY LONDON) so as to make a very quick killing on the £
What an utter bastard. Totally unbecoming of the decent financiers of this country.
I believe so also; the tweet of 52 YES came from a financial source. I hope the FSA investigate...
The FSA don't exist any more, it is the PRA these days
On a related note, whenever I hear the acronym FCA, I can't help but think of Liquidator Brunt. ;')
I hope people give credit where it is due. If NO prevails, it will have a lot to do with GORDON BROWN over the last weeek.
Maybe, but ( with the apparent collusion of Cameron, Miliband, and Clegg) he's going around doing it by writing cheques others have to pay. Plus ca change, plus ca reste la meme chose avec Gordon.
Much exposure on BBC Wales of unhappiness that the "vow" enshrining Barnett is probably at Wales' expense, so it's not just the John Redwoods and Peter Bones who are cheesed off.
Now that's not to say that GCHQ/MI5/MI6 are ballot-stuffing "proper" online polls, it's more likely they target voodoo polls of the sort carried by news websites, but they do have an interest in manipulating opinion polls.
Sinister and disgusting. Whether applied to a cause I support or not. The thing is everyone KNOWS. There was a day or two on the DM website during the Euro elections when suddenly comments in favour of UKIP were getting red-arrowed all over the place. Everyone knew it was bollocks and said so. They stopped after a while. Would it be too much to ask that they do some proper work, rather than trolling the masses?
I hope people give credit where it is due. If NO prevails, it will have a lot to do with GORDON BROWN over the last weeek.
Maybe, but ( with the apparent collusion of Cameron, Miliband, and Clegg) he's going around doing it by writing cheques others have to pay. Plus ca change, plus ca reste la meme chose avec Gordon.
Much exposure on BBC Wales of unhappiness that the "vow" enshrining Barnett is probably at Wales' expense, so it's not just the John Redwoods and Peter Bones who are cheesed off.
If it works, we'll figure something out to avert the next crises. One at a time.
It will be close, but it looks like a clear, if not substantial No lead. Looks like Scots will give Yes a high enough total to ensure Devomax, but not so high they actually break-up the UK!
I would quite like a Yes vote.
My prediction is: 44.33% Yes on a 81.4% turnout.
And the knives out for poached Salmond.
How the fuck is 40%+ bad for Salmond or the SNP? People were predicted sub 30% when this process started.
Fascinating rumours that the ICM poll was leaked early, the wrong way round, by an FX dealer (probably in EVIL TORY LONDON) so as to make a very quick killing on the £
What an utter bastard. Totally unbecoming of the decent financiers of this country.
I believe so also; the tweet of 52 YES came from a financial source. I hope the FSA investigate...
The FSA don't exist any more, it is the PRA these days
On a related note, whenever I hear the acronym FCA, I can't help but think of Liquidator Brunt. ;')
Met Jeffrey Coombs a few years ago, I've always preferred him as Weyoun
Weyoun is brilliant, one of my favourites.
Mine too, Garak was my favourite.
Yep! Always loved the Garak-heavy episodes. Especially "In the Pale Moonlight"
That was my favourite ever Trek episode.
Loved the Improbable Cause/The Die is Cast two parter.
Not as good as Scorpion parts I & II. Then again, that's Voyager, which probably needs its own thread...
Just caught up with SNP-wreck-the-NHS-gate. A devastating development. If nothing else soft Yessers will be demoralised and won't bother turning out to vote. It has also shattered the SNP's raison d'être. They were carving out a niche in the all-politicians-are-not-the-same market. That's in tatters now that they're proposing slashes to the NHS budget that would have made Maggie blush!
Meanwhile, in normal politics... our @YouGov VI tonight is stunning. Greens just 1 point behind Libs now; LD 7%, GRN 6%.The 5th party soon?
The LD's have more to fall, their remaining vote is as solid as jelly. But I won't mention Sheffield Hallam and the possibility of Nick Clegg losing his seat.
It will be close, but it looks like a clear, if not substantial No lead. Looks like Scots will give Yes a high enough total to ensure Devomax, but not so high they actually break-up the UK!
I would quite like a Yes vote.
My prediction is: 44.33% Yes on a 81.4% turnout.
And the knives out for poached Salmond.
How the fuck is 40%+ bad for Salmond or the SNP? People were predicted sub 30% when this process started.
Revolutions consume their own.
I hope Brown becomes FM and pushes Salmond into opposition. They deserve each other.
I hope people give credit where it is due. If NO prevails, it will have a lot to do with GORDON BROWN over the last weeek.
Maybe, but ( with the apparent collusion of Cameron, Miliband, and Clegg) he's going around doing it by writing cheques others have to pay. Plus ca change, plus ca reste la meme chose avec Gordon.
Much exposure on BBC Wales of unhappiness that the "vow" enshrining Barnett is probably at Wales' expense, so it's not just the John Redwoods and Peter Bones who are cheesed off.
If it works, we'll figure something out to avert the next crises. One at a time.
It will be close, but it looks like a clear, if not substantial No lead. Looks like Scots will give Yes a high enough total to ensure Devomax, but not so high they actually break-up the UK!
I would quite like a Yes vote.
My prediction is: 44.33% Yes on a 81.4% turnout.
And the knives out for poached Salmond.
How the fuck is 40%+ bad for Salmond or the SNP? People were predicted sub 30% when this process started.
Because it's binary, win or lose. It would appear he is going to be the loser.
Meanwhile, in normal politics... our @YouGov VI tonight is stunning. Greens just 1 point behind Libs now; LD 7%, GRN 6%.The 5th party soon?
The LD's have more to fall, their remaining vote is as solid as jelly. But I won't mention Sheffield Hallam and the possibility of Nick Clegg losing his seat.
Are you prepared to bet on Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam?
On the surface it looks like its swinging back to No. And thank God.
However, two things bother me: 1. Repeated reports of mass registration of the won't vote never votes. As they have little to lose generally speaking it feels like there more who turn out the more yes votes that generates. Are the pollsters managing to capture and classify VI from these people? 2. The large numbers of don't knows. The Better Together campaign has ramped up the fear campaign to try and scare the DKs into a No vote. But I've long suspected that the waverers will get to the polling booth, think "ah fuck it" and vote yes. A high DK and a narrow gap excluding them and high new vote registration makes me think its still in play.
AllyM I predict 'Here at the Scottish Sun, after due consideration of our owner's reputation, bank balance and market share, have come to the deeply committed decision to endorse a No vote on the condition that full devomax follows surely after!'
I hope people give credit where it is due. If NO prevails, it will have a lot to do with GORDON BROWN over the last weeek.
If Brown can convince the Labour supporters who recently deserted for the YES camp, I'd be happy to praise Gordon for clearing up his mess.
It is not Brown's mess. You could blame Thatcher, Blair or Cameron for actions that endangered the union, but hardly Brown. All the crucial decisions came before or after his time.
AllyM I predict 'Here at the Scottish Sun, after due consideration of our owner's reputation, bank balance and market share, have come to the deeply committed decision to endorse a No vote on the condition that full devomax follows surely after!'
It struck me that if Cameron had done something about the English democratic deficit during the past four years we would have the following results:
Scots happier with devomax English happier with EV4EL Unionists happier with a more secure union Conservatives happier with the electoral benefits
But like so many of the things ** Cameron inherited from Labour he has seen no reason to change things.
Cameron really is Continuity Blair.
** such as an economy based on debt fueled wealth consumption, rising house prices with falling home ownership, open door immigration, EU appeasement, Middle Eastern warmongering, replacing proper power stations with windmills, nanny state meddling, doing nothing about public sector fatcats and the toleration of thousands of child rapes
Given the Tory majority in England, Cameron could do nothing because the Libdems were not going to give up their influence on English domestic policy. They'd have joined with Labour to vote it down. That's why it was shunted into the long grass
There is no evidence the EVfEL would have sated English demands (last polls that refer to EVfEL were 7 years ago) as it is a bodge job at best because you could not exclude Scots/Welsh MPs from ministerial roles for example in the Treasury who would have a major influence over the allocation of funding for devolved areas. Unless a separate body (assembly) is created which does the funding allocation we are no further forward.
I believe this is a complete summary of the polling:
Just caught up with SNP-wreck-the-NHS-gate. A devastating development. If nothing else soft Yessers will be demoralised and won't bother turning out to vote. It has also shattered the SNP's raison d'être. They were carving out a niche in the all-politicians-are-not-the-same market. That's in tatters now that they're proposing slashes to the NHS budget that would have made Maggie blush!
'SNP proposing to slash the NHS budget' - Ay, missed that this afternoon, got a link please?
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 12s YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead down one to three points, Greens one point behind Lib Dems: CON 34%, LAB 37%, LD 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%
Comments
'Scottish independence poll: ICM puts Yes up to 48%
An ICM poll compiled in August put support for Yes at 45 per cent when undecideds were taken out – indicating that the Yes campaign has gained three percentage points to 48 per cent.
This has been accompanied by a slip of three percentage points for a No vote which has fallen from 55 per cent to 52 per cent over the same period.'
http://tinyurl.com/nzcy39o
And even Cameron gets better ratings than Miliband in Scotland.....
Yes 42% No 58%
Scots happier with devomax
English happier with EV4EL
Unionists happier with a more secure union
Conservatives happier with the electoral benefits
But like so many of the things ** Cameron inherited from Labour he has seen no reason to change things.
Cameron really is Continuity Blair.
** such as an economy based on debt fueled wealth consumption, rising house prices with falling home ownership, open door immigration, EU appeasement, Middle Eastern warmongering, replacing proper power stations with windmills, nanny state meddling, doing nothing about public sector fatcats and the toleration of thousands of child rapes
Too close to call, eh?
@zerohedge: Latest ICM poll: 52% Yes, 48% No
@zerohedge: GBPUSD whoosh
NB - pound never blinked...
% Yes, Women / Men
42 / 53
source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11100248/Scottish-independence-women-voters-could-save-the-Union.html
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 48% (+1)
No 52% (-1)
Are you a Unionist who has not started panicking yet? Well, the starting gun just fired.
Which surely is tipping point.
Especially if there was a narrow YES vote initially which was then overturned to a tiny NO via disputed ballots.
I think it's time for @ScottishSun to have our say on the #indyref. Coming soon...
*Those who are confident with a good poll, despondent with a bad one, don't count as calm for the sake of the question I think.
Showing that behaviour is irrational, is not the same as showing that it doesn't happen.
Loved the Improbable Cause/The Die is Cast two parter.
Say 10.01 after the exit poll?
We disagree on many things, but on this I entirely agree.
Gordon Brown does not speak for Westminster.
Waiting for the 10pm poll eh..
UNDERPASS to "change outcome of online polls"."
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jul/14/gchq-tools-manipulate-online-information-leak
Now that's not to say that GCHQ/MI5/MI6 are ballot-stuffing "proper" online polls, it's more likely they target voodoo polls of the sort carried by news websites, but they do have an interest in manipulating opinion polls.
The tension mounts as we wait for the YouGov daily poll
My prediction is: 44.33% Yes on a 81.4% turnout.
And the knives out for poached Salmond.
Much exposure on BBC Wales of unhappiness that the "vow" enshrining Barnett is probably at Wales' expense, so it's not just the John Redwoods and Peter Bones who are cheesed off.
Blackpool 0 Watford 1
Meanwhile, in normal politics... our @YouGov VI tonight is stunning. Greens just 1 point behind Libs now; LD 7%, GRN 6%.The 5th party soon?
Of course, a Tory lead at this stage might've had implications in the indyref too, though.
"Foreign investment in Zimbabwe more than halved in the first six months of the year, the country's central bank chief John Mangudya has said....
Zimbabwe does not have its own currency and uses eight others as legal tender, with the US dollar and South African rand most commonly used."
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28936300
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fBxvVgbyO_msx2eJxVbUlh6MubdD4-fZ-UIBFkwNIaI/edit#gid=0
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WX0VkvxhGdACIr4FYUue_Cryk6JNRg743gsgoETYtw0/edit#gid=0
But I won't mention Sheffield Hallam and the possibility of Nick Clegg losing his seat.
I hope Brown becomes FM and pushes Salmond into opposition. They deserve each other.
However, two things bother me:
1. Repeated reports of mass registration of the won't vote never votes. As they have little to lose generally speaking it feels like there more who turn out the more yes votes that generates. Are the pollsters managing to capture and classify VI from these people?
2. The large numbers of don't knows. The Better Together campaign has ramped up the fear campaign to try and scare the DKs into a No vote. But I've long suspected that the waverers will get to the polling booth, think "ah fuck it" and vote yes. A high DK and a narrow gap excluding them and high new vote registration makes me think its still in play.
A win margin of 0.5 to 5%. Either way.....
There is no evidence the EVfEL would have sated English demands (last polls that refer to EVfEL were 7 years ago) as it is a bodge job at best because you could not exclude Scots/Welsh MPs from ministerial roles for example in the Treasury who would have a major influence over the allocation of funding for devolved areas. Unless a separate body (assembly) is created which does the funding allocation we are no further forward.
I believe this is a complete summary of the polling:
http://toque.co.uk/english-parliament-opinion-polls
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead down one to three points, Greens one point behind Lib Dems: CON 34%, LAB 37%, LD 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%