I cannot think of a more perfect set of circumstances since the 1992 GE where Shy voter syndrome might thrive in current polling. The comparisons between those Shy Tories and these possible Shy Scottish No voters are not that startling in the circumstances. Especially when you compare that GE campaign to this Indy Ref campaign on the central issue of a change being seen as a huge gamble or risk just after the recession we have been through.
So really 59:41, and a fair few of the 'yesers' will have secret second thoughts on the day... so let's say 62:38 as the final score.
What do you base that on?
The fact that pretty much every referendum in history has had the status quo outperform the polls on the day.
And the fact that admitting that you agree with the cynically negative Project Fear makes you look like a scary cat.
I don't believe there are shy no voters. Why would they be afraid of telling a pollster? Would the girl on the minimum wage from the polling company on the phone judge you?
Basically, it really is this close - I can guarantee it. There was some internal polling done by one of the sides showing 41-41 with 18 undecided.
This is edge of the knife stuff, believe me. If the union survives, it'll be by a thread.
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