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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM…..Opinium…..Survation….rolling blog on tonight’s final
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM…..Opinium…..Survation….rolling blog on tonight’s final polls
This is what the ballot paper looks like (vis @faisalislam )
pic.twitter.com/D95tRyK1hE
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*cough*
Leaves me plenty time to sit on tenterhooks in the house after work, Thursday.
How exciting though.
#ThisIsTheInternetSoIWillTakeNoChancesAndMakeClearIAmJoking
1) Publication for the Wednesday print edition
or
2) Publication on Wednesday on the newspaper website for the Thursday print edition
Some people think I'm joking about differential front end grip, you know.
For shame
@Casino
Yes, I certainly made the comparisons with Quebec and no I wouldn't be flabbergasted if it was 93% (surprised...but not f...d). That isn't quite the same as saying that I thought it would be 93% though. The important point from a betting point of view was that I was sure the betting markets were underestimating turnover, and I'm happy that my advice for people to get on appears to be working out well.
If I had to commit to a single figure right now I'd guess 84%, but 9 points higher is possible - 9 lower isn't.
All clear?
But I'd have gone for "Should Scotland become independent from the UK?"
Or "Is Gordon Brown ace and David Cameron a chinless born loser?"
Something like that.
For the record, though, I placed my turnout bets ages ago back in July - so it was an early independent spot;-)
Unless I am mistaken, the last figures were : 46.5 Yes to 53.5 No (42 Yes, 49 No, 7 DK)
Britain Elects @britainelects 13m
Becoming pretty historic that they haven't been leaked yet.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 6m
@britainelects The polling industry's learned lot in past 10 days. No embargoed copies and ultra secrecy. Even I don't know!
Is it a good thing to permit them?
I'm kicking myself for not putting more on. Spin's opening bid of 79 was ridiculously low,
@OpiniumResearch 5m
#indyref YES/NO #indypoll out in a few minutes... @Telegraph
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 52s
Labour saying it will cancel its party conference if Scotland votes "Yes". Does Ed Miliband actually want anyone in England to vote Labour?
AMENDED: new @Survation #indyref poll for the Scottish Daily Mail will be published at 10pm.
"Labour To 'Cancel Annual Party Conference' If Scotland Votes 'Yes'" - my exclusive for HuffPost UK: http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/5831418?1410896690 …
AMENDED: new @Survation #indyref poll for the Scottish Daily Mail will be published at 10pm.
Latest ICM poll: 52% Yes, 48% No
zerohedge @zerohedge 3 mins
Latest ICM poll: 52% Yes, 48% No
Scottish Independence Poll (ICM): YES - 48% NO - 52%
@britainelects 38s
Scottish Independence Poll (ICM): YES - 41% NO - 45% (DK) - 14%
Scottish Independence Poll (ICM):
YES - 41%
NO - 45%
(DK) - 14%
Lab lead 3.68% - up from 3.53% in the previous period - so not a huge change in the lead. But Con and Lab both down significantly
Here http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-icm-puts-yes-up-to-48-1-3543614
First ever quantum poll, it seems. But surely by publishing it only one result becomes possible?
[I was a bit miffed when Lotus actually managed to get both cars to finish the last race].
Either "feck it let's do this" or "nae, too risky" last-minute pencil-hoverers are going to decide the fate of our nation.
Heh.
New #ICM #indyref poll for @TheScotsman shows a 6-point narrowing of gap: Yes 48% (+3), No 52% (-3). #VoteYes has the momentum. #letsdothis.
One day left and both ICM + @Telegraph Opinium poll predict 4pt No victory.
No 52
Yes 48
And the fact that admitting that you agree with the cynically negative Project Fear makes you look like a scary cat.
How big was Shaun Wright's payoff ?
How long will it be before Shaun Wright is given another public sector fatcat non-job ?
Keep up the NO hope....wait
edit - fixed already.
Yes, otherwise you would have to rely on the leaked "private polling" or "canvas returns" of the participants.
Basically, it really is this close - I can guarantee it. There was some internal polling done by one of the sides showing 41-41 with 18 undecided.
This is edge of the knife stuff, believe me. If the union survives, it'll be by a thread.
But starting to look hopeful. Go Gordon! Most countries allow them - France is a notable exception, though they get systematically leaked in neighbouring countries. Hard to prevent in the internet age.
I have said all along it will be 40-60.
LOL salmond and sturgeon humiliation and cheerio SNP as a political force!
Is malcolmg back yet? Should we let him back on Thursday night?!!
Does Bavaria have a zero tax zone along its border with Baden-Wurtemburg ?
Does Victoria have a zero tax zone along its border with New South Wales ?
Does New Jersey have a zero tax zone along its border with New York ?
etc, etc, etc
Not to mention the most likely movers to a zero tax zone in England would be English businesses from other parts of England rather than Scottish businesses, especially if English tax rates are raised elsewhere.
In other words the whole premise is crap, but crap being used as an argument to continue the treatment of English people as second class citizens.
BTW I wasn't referring to you as an anti-English bigot. They tend to be on the political left. But I was a little surprised that you gave any interest in the anti-English drivel which you posted.
Oh for politicians of Brown's stature in these days of political pygmies like Cameron.
What happened when Ed was campaigning today?
What was Salmond like on Sky news? I couldn't bring myself to watch.