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The LDs edging back up in the Devon by-election betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,454
    dixiedean said:

    vino said:

    vino said:

    algarkirk said:

    🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol
    👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies

    Why?
    💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success
    ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote

    #WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox

    inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…

    It's on

    I don't think this is impossible. But it must be less likely if the Tories get hammered in T and H. A result like Shropshire would not be great for election 2022 prospects, though Tory MPs/party would do well to despatch Boris quickly (don't hold your breath, having already missed the big chance, they really are that craven and useless.)

    But something tells me that T and H is not home and dry for the LDs. It seems to me about 70/30. I just slightly wonder if Labour will accidentally split the vote enough, unlike Shropshire, to let the Tories hold on.
    With you on this - can a Labour brexit voter ever vote for the Lib Dems? - unless of course they hate Boris so much.
    I don't think the three Labour Brexit voters in T&H will make that much of a dent in the LD's total, tbh.
    You should be right but it's the local election results ( I know I know) where the results just don't seem to reflect the Opinion Polls - last night for example the Tories had their best results for some time and its throwing my calculations
    You need to drill down deeper there. Their percentages only increased in 2. Both of which were special in that previous independents/UKIp didn't stand, so the votes of all 3 main parties weren't really comparable.
    Thats not quite right. % gains in 3 and in Warwick they only lost 0.6%.
    In kidderminster they gained as much as Lab and LD combined
    But yes, differential party line ups etc
    They were 4 good results for the Tories generally but its 4 wards
    Tough to really judge the Kidderminster one though. We don't really know who votes ICHC, but

    Foxy said:

    Why should it be newsworthy that a day in mid-June is the hottest of the year so far? Summer is here. That's what is meant to happen.

    If it was the case in November, that would be a story.

    Hot sunny days near mid-summer? Who would have predicted that 😎
    You are confusing daylight hours with heating.

    June is not traditionally a hot month despite having long hours of sunshine. Insolation means late July and early August are hotter. Hence why all the records are made in that period.
    The equivalent would be having a really cold snap in mid-December. Equally. It's late January and February when you expect that.
    Not that we get that much any more anyway.
    Memories fade quickly. Here in Wiltshire we had two falls of snow over 10 inches in 2018, another in 2019, a fall of 4 inches in 2021. We have misleading memories of what U.K. winters are like. Yes there has been some warming but snow was never that frequent and widespread, certainly not where I live. The really cold winters of 47 and 63 stand out for a reason.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    dixiedean said:

    vino said:

    vino said:

    algarkirk said:

    🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol
    👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies

    Why?
    💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success
    ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote

    #WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox

    inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…

    It's on

    I don't think this is impossible. But it must be less likely if the Tories get hammered in T and H. A result like Shropshire would not be great for election 2022 prospects, though Tory MPs/party would do well to despatch Boris quickly (don't hold your breath, having already missed the big chance, they really are that craven and useless.)

    But something tells me that T and H is not home and dry for the LDs. It seems to me about 70/30. I just slightly wonder if Labour will accidentally split the vote enough, unlike Shropshire, to let the Tories hold on.
    With you on this - can a Labour brexit voter ever vote for the Lib Dems? - unless of course they hate Boris so much.
    I don't think the three Labour Brexit voters in T&H will make that much of a dent in the LD's total, tbh.
    You should be right but it's the local election results ( I know I know) where the results just don't seem to reflect the Opinion Polls - last night for example the Tories had their best results for some time and its throwing my calculations
    You need to drill down deeper there. Their percentages only increased in 2. Both of which were special in that previous independents/UKIp didn't stand, so the votes of all 3 main parties weren't really comparable.
    Thats not quite right. % gains in 3 and in Warwick they only lost 0.6%.
    In kidderminster they gained as much as Lab and LD combined
    But yes, differential party line ups etc
    They were 4 good results for the Tories generally but its 4 wards
    Tough to really judge the Kidderminster one though. We don't really know who votes ICHC, but

    Foxy said:

    Why should it be newsworthy that a day in mid-June is the hottest of the year so far? Summer is here. That's what is meant to happen.

    If it was the case in November, that would be a story.

    Hot sunny days near mid-summer? Who would have predicted that 😎
    You are confusing daylight hours with heating.

    June is not traditionally a hot month despite having long hours of sunshine. Insolation means late July and early August are hotter. Hence why all the records are made in that period.
    The equivalent would be having a really cold snap in mid-December. Equally. It's late January and February when you expect that.
    Not that we get that much any more anyway.
    Yebbut of course the later in the cycle you get both ways, day length is working for you: a Christmas freeze has minimum daylength to thaw and a June heatwave has minimum night time respite
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934
    US YouGov poll:

    https://news.yahoo.com/poll-biden-disapproval-hits-new-high-as-more-americans-say-they-would-vote-for-trump-090021657.html

    The survey of 1,541 U.S. adults, which was conducted from June 10-13, found that if another presidential election were held today, more registered voters say they would cast ballots for Donald Trump (44%) than for Biden (42%)

    A full 56% of Americans now disapprove of the president’s performance — the highest share to date — while just 39% approve. Three weeks ago, those numbers were 53% and 42%, respectively.

    On average, Biden’s job approval scores are now a few points worse than Trump’s were at the parallel stage of his presidency.

    Among all Americans, Trump (43%) now has a higher personal favorability rating than Biden (40%) as well. Meanwhile, nearly two-thirds of independents (64%) have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, and just 28% say they would vote for him over Trump.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,145

    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    Nothing exceptional about today’s temperatures in Britain. 32.7C at Sandton Downham was hot for the time of year - we rarely get 32C+ before the solstice, but it’s certainly not freakish.

    The more exceptional context is across Western Europe. Earliest ever 40C in France yesterday, another 40+ today, coming after the hottest May on record there and widespread exceptional drought, June records falling in Spain, pre-monsoon records in India etc.

    Almost every year these days a summer heat dome forms over Western and Central Europe giving locations that used to get a few days in the 30s every summer regular 35C+ heatwaves. We continue to get all the Atlantic crap but occasionally benefit from the odd waft of the hot stuff. The frequency of 34 and 35C days in England in the last couple of decades has jumped far faster than the average summer temperature has (as foretold by simple maths when there is a shift in a normal distribution).

    I'd rather have the "Atlantic crap" thank you very much. 30°C+ conditions are fit for nothing except sitting somewhere shady with a fan constantly on and a cold drink. An inconvenience for a day, a miserable endurance trial if it goes on for weeks.
    There’s a happy medium between Atlantic Crap and the Venusian temperatures of modern European summers. Sadly we seem to get it only rarely, though much of this working week fitted the bill. 24-27C with lots of sunshine.
    Part of the art is to adapt your clothes (and timetable, and architecture) to the weather.

    Seville is an incredibly civilised place to live, but it depends on fountains, siestas and shady streets.

    And taking all of August off.
    Very nice, I'm sure, but even if we set aside the practicalities of everyone having a whacking great holiday at the same time (and if this would mean we'd have naff all annual leave remaining to use for the remainder of the year,) demolishing and rebuilding the nation's entire housing stock does strike one as a trifle ambitious.

    Practical measures are needed, and the best I can do is sit here in front of this stupid fan I've got on and wait and wait and wait for the roasting hot air to cool down a bit before I can go to bed (i.e. I've probably got to endure until past midnight.)

    This is one of those occasions when I have particular reason to curse the astronomical property prices in this rotten country: anywhere sensible I could've afforded to trade up from a flat to a small house years ago, and then I'd have at least one of the rooms fitted with a decent aircon unit to deal properly with this problem.
    Most houses in the UK don't have aircon. If you're using a fairly crappy 'fly killer' sort of rotary fan, and can afford a little upgrade, a beefier fan unit/humidifier might be a worthwhile investment.
    I had a portable unit but it weighed a bloody ton, was deeply impractical to empty the water out of and so loud as to make it quite difficult to get to sleep with it grumbling and growling away in the same room. I'd like something wall mounted instead, but even if I could find an installer able to mount it on the exterior of the block about ten metres up in the air I doubt very much that the freeholder would be terribly pleased about my having a great hole drilled in the side of the building and an ugly box bolted to the outside.

    So, I'm stuck with some species of crappy fan, I'm afraid.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,187

    dixiedean said:

    vino said:

    vino said:

    algarkirk said:

    🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol
    👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies

    Why?
    💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success
    ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote

    #WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox

    inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…

    It's on

    I don't think this is impossible. But it must be less likely if the Tories get hammered in T and H. A result like Shropshire would not be great for election 2022 prospects, though Tory MPs/party would do well to despatch Boris quickly (don't hold your breath, having already missed the big chance, they really are that craven and useless.)

    But something tells me that T and H is not home and dry for the LDs. It seems to me about 70/30. I just slightly wonder if Labour will accidentally split the vote enough, unlike Shropshire, to let the Tories hold on.
    With you on this - can a Labour brexit voter ever vote for the Lib Dems? - unless of course they hate Boris so much.
    I don't think the three Labour Brexit voters in T&H will make that much of a dent in the LD's total, tbh.
    You should be right but it's the local election results ( I know I know) where the results just don't seem to reflect the Opinion Polls - last night for example the Tories had their best results for some time and its throwing my calculations
    You need to drill down deeper there. Their percentages only increased in 2. Both of which were special in that previous independents/UKIp didn't stand, so the votes of all 3 main parties weren't really comparable.
    Thats not quite right. % gains in 3 and in Warwick they only lost 0.6%.
    In kidderminster they gained as much as Lab and LD combined
    But yes, differential party line ups etc
    They were 4 good results for the Tories generally but its 4 wards
    Tough to really judge the Kidderminster one though. We don't really know who votes ICHC, but

    Foxy said:

    Why should it be newsworthy that a day in mid-June is the hottest of the year so far? Summer is here. That's what is meant to happen.

    If it was the case in November, that would be a story.

    Hot sunny days near mid-summer? Who would have predicted that 😎
    You are confusing daylight hours with heating.

    June is not traditionally a hot month despite having long hours of sunshine. Insolation means late July and early August are hotter. Hence why all the records are made in that period.
    The equivalent would be having a really cold snap in mid-December. Equally. It's late January and February when you expect that.
    Not that we get that much any more anyway.
    Memories fade quickly. Here in Wiltshire we had two falls of snow over 10 inches in 2018, another in 2019, a fall of 4 inches in 2021. We have misleading memories of what U.K. winters are like. Yes there has been some warming but snow was never that frequent and widespread, certainly not where I live. The really cold winters of 47 and 63 stand out for a reason.
    Indeed. People are completely clueless when it comes to winter weather “I remember six feet of snow”. You really don’t - that would be a once in 250 year event in England.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,187
    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    vino said:

    vino said:

    algarkirk said:

    🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol
    👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies

    Why?
    💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success
    ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote

    #WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox

    inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…

    It's on

    I don't think this is impossible. But it must be less likely if the Tories get hammered in T and H. A result like Shropshire would not be great for election 2022 prospects, though Tory MPs/party would do well to despatch Boris quickly (don't hold your breath, having already missed the big chance, they really are that craven and useless.)

    But something tells me that T and H is not home and dry for the LDs. It seems to me about 70/30. I just slightly wonder if Labour will accidentally split the vote enough, unlike Shropshire, to let the Tories hold on.
    With you on this - can a Labour brexit voter ever vote for the Lib Dems? - unless of course they hate Boris so much.
    I don't think the three Labour Brexit voters in T&H will make that much of a dent in the LD's total, tbh.
    You should be right but it's the local election results ( I know I know) where the results just don't seem to reflect the Opinion Polls - last night for example the Tories had their best results for some time and its throwing my calculations
    You need to drill down deeper there. Their percentages only increased in 2. Both of which were special in that previous independents/UKIp didn't stand, so the votes of all 3 main parties weren't really comparable.
    Thats not quite right. % gains in 3 and in Warwick they only lost 0.6%.
    In kidderminster they gained as much as Lab and LD combined
    But yes, differential party line ups etc
    They were 4 good results for the Tories generally but its 4 wards
    Tough to really judge the Kidderminster one though. We don't really know who votes ICHC, but

    Foxy said:

    Why should it be newsworthy that a day in mid-June is the hottest of the year so far? Summer is here. That's what is meant to happen.

    If it was the case in November, that would be a story.

    Hot sunny days near mid-summer? Who would have predicted that 😎
    You are confusing daylight hours with heating.

    June is not traditionally a hot month despite having long hours of sunshine. Insolation means late July and early August are hotter. Hence why all the records are made in that period.
    The equivalent would be having a really cold snap in mid-December. Equally. It's late January and February when you expect that.
    Not that we get that much any more anyway.
    Yebbut of course the later in the cycle you get both ways, day length is working for you: a Christmas freeze has minimum daylength to thaw and a June heatwave has minimum night time respite
    Most of the additional heating that gives record temperatures comes from the land acting as a storage heater. It’s not cooling off much in July and August during the nighttime hours. Until very recently the hottest day recorded was August 10, and most of the top ten are in August or late July.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,485
    Vaguely on topic, over the last two days the entire population of Brighton and far beyond seems to have been working not from home, but from the beach or its bars. Astonishing crowds, mostly of working age, among a few retirees (like me) not sheltering from the heat.

    I think I've worked out why the UK economy is in the doldrums and we have a productivity problem.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,597
    Dura_Ace said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @BWallaceMP
    So there is a lot of rubbish being spouted about the PM’s trip to Ukriane. 1. Firstly these trips are organised in total secrecy. Very few, and i mean very few, people know the dates and arrangements. Russia is still launching missile strikes right across Ukriane .

    2. Visits are sometimes necessary in person because not everything can be discussed securely over phones etc. Russia has an aggressive electronic warfare and signal intelligence operation.

    3. The timings of such visits are usually a matter for the hosts but I know the PM wanted to visit before Nato Leaders summit in 10 days time. 4. As a Northern MP , myself i am not affronted by the fact he had to cancel speaking at the conference. The PM can remedy that.

    in many ways however taking the opportunity to visit a country and ally at war to ensure we are doing everything we can to help is also important. As a northern MP I am proud that Britain has been at the forefront of the international effort to support Ukriane.

    Helping Ukriane win and trying to help at home are linked. Part of the inflation we see comes from gas and food prices which are partly driven upwards because of this conflict. Amazing how an important trip can generate so much conspiracy bollocks.


    https://twitter.com/BWallaceMP/status/1537864043939172353

    Wallace is Johnson's bitch. See his volte face on interference in the Kabul operation. Ignore , and the slur on GCHQ ability to encrypt a phone conversation.
    The whole thing is just an insult to the intelligence. They must think we are fucking morons.
    Unfortunately some of these morons will vote for Johnson come what may.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,876

    vino said:

    vino said:

    algarkirk said:

    🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol
    👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies

    Why?
    💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success
    ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote

    #WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox

    inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…

    It's on

    I don't think this is impossible. But it must be less likely if the Tories get hammered in T and H. A result like Shropshire would not be great for election 2022 prospects, though Tory MPs/party would do well to despatch Boris quickly (don't hold your breath, having already missed the big chance, they really are that craven and useless.)

    But something tells me that T and H is not home and dry for the LDs. It seems to me about 70/30. I just slightly wonder if Labour will accidentally split the vote enough, unlike Shropshire, to let the Tories hold on.
    With you on this - can a Labour brexit voter ever vote for the Lib Dems? - unless of course they hate Boris so much.
    I don't think the three Labour Brexit voters in T&H will make that much of a dent in the LD's total, tbh.
    You should be right but it's the local election results ( I know I know) where the results just don't seem to reflect the Opinion Polls - last night for example the Tories had their best results for some time and its throwing my calculations
    You need to drill down deeper there. Their percentages only increased in 2. Both of which were special in that previous independents/UKIp didn't stand, so the votes of all 3 main parties weren't really comparable.
    Thats not quite right. % gains in 3 and in Warwick they only lost 0.6%.
    In kidderminster they gained as much as Lab and LD combined
    But yes, differential party line ups etc
    They were 4 good results for the Tories generally but its 4 wards
    I think they lost 6.8% in Warwick.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    algarkirk said:

    🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol
    👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies

    Why?
    💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success
    ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote

    #WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox

    inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…

    It's on

    I don't think this is impossible. But it must be less likely if the Tories get hammered in T and H. A result like Shropshire would not be great for election 2022 prospects, though Tory MPs/party would do well to despatch Boris quickly (don't hold your breath, having already missed the big chance, they really are that craven and useless.)

    But something tells me that T and H is not home and dry for the LDs. It seems to me about 70/30. I just slightly wonder if Labour will accidentally split the vote enough, unlike Shropshire, to let the Tories hold on.
    It’s not impossible, but it doesn’t seem very likely. What does seem likely is that, like the multiple other times the idea of a snap election has been floated, it’s a plan to scare Tories into being loyal.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631

    Dura_Ace said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @BWallaceMP
    So there is a lot of rubbish being spouted about the PM’s trip to Ukriane. 1. Firstly these trips are organised in total secrecy. Very few, and i mean very few, people know the dates and arrangements. Russia is still launching missile strikes right across Ukriane .

    2. Visits are sometimes necessary in person because not everything can be discussed securely over phones etc. Russia has an aggressive electronic warfare and signal intelligence operation.

    3. The timings of such visits are usually a matter for the hosts but I know the PM wanted to visit before Nato Leaders summit in 10 days time. 4. As a Northern MP , myself i am not affronted by the fact he had to cancel speaking at the conference. The PM can remedy that.

    in many ways however taking the opportunity to visit a country and ally at war to ensure we are doing everything we can to help is also important. As a northern MP I am proud that Britain has been at the forefront of the international effort to support Ukriane.

    Helping Ukriane win and trying to help at home are linked. Part of the inflation we see comes from gas and food prices which are partly driven upwards because of this conflict. Amazing how an important trip can generate so much conspiracy bollocks.


    https://twitter.com/BWallaceMP/status/1537864043939172353

    Wallace is Johnson's bitch. See his volte face on interference in the Kabul operation. Ignore , and the slur on GCHQ ability to encrypt a phone conversation.
    The whole thing is just an insult to the intelligence. They must think we are fucking morons.
    Unfortunately some of these morons will vote for Johnson come what may.
    We know, we've all seen Rees-Mogg pledge his undying loyalty.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297

    dixiedean said:

    vino said:

    vino said:

    algarkirk said:

    🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol
    👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies

    Why?
    💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success
    ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote

    #WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox

    inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…

    It's on

    I don't think this is impossible. But it must be less likely if the Tories get hammered in T and H. A result like Shropshire would not be great for election 2022 prospects, though Tory MPs/party would do well to despatch Boris quickly (don't hold your breath, having already missed the big chance, they really are that craven and useless.)

    But something tells me that T and H is not home and dry for the LDs. It seems to me about 70/30. I just slightly wonder if Labour will accidentally split the vote enough, unlike Shropshire, to let the Tories hold on.
    With you on this - can a Labour brexit voter ever vote for the Lib Dems? - unless of course they hate Boris so much.
    I don't think the three Labour Brexit voters in T&H will make that much of a dent in the LD's total, tbh.
    You should be right but it's the local election results ( I know I know) where the results just don't seem to reflect the Opinion Polls - last night for example the Tories had their best results for some time and its throwing my calculations
    You need to drill down deeper there. Their percentages only increased in 2. Both of which were special in that previous independents/UKIp didn't stand, so the votes of all 3 main parties weren't really comparable.
    Thats not quite right. % gains in 3 and in Warwick they only lost 0.6%.
    In kidderminster they gained as much as Lab and LD combined
    But yes, differential party line ups etc
    They were 4 good results for the Tories generally but its 4 wards
    Tough to really judge the Kidderminster one though. We don't really know who votes ICHC, but

    Foxy said:

    Why should it be newsworthy that a day in mid-June is the hottest of the year so far? Summer is here. That's what is meant to happen.

    If it was the case in November, that would be a story.

    Hot sunny days near mid-summer? Who would have predicted that 😎
    You are confusing daylight hours with heating.

    June is not traditionally a hot month despite having long hours of sunshine. Insolation means late July and early August are hotter. Hence why all the records are made in that period.
    The equivalent would be having a really cold snap in mid-December. Equally. It's late January and February when you expect that.
    Not that we get that much any more anyway.
    Memories fade quickly. Here in Wiltshire we had two falls of snow over 10 inches in 2018, another in 2019, a fall of 4 inches in 2021. We have misleading memories of what U.K. winters are like. Yes there has been some warming but snow was never that frequent and widespread, certainly not where I live. The really cold winters of 47 and 63 stand out for a reason.
    Haven't had a really bad one since the 2009-10 winter. And December 2010.
    Incidentally. People forget, a huge factor in the "Winter of Discontent" was it was the fifth coldest of the Century.
    What price an overdue severe one this time?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,018

    Dura_Ace said:

    fitalass said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Don't know if this has been covered yet:

    "The Prime Minister has offered to launch a major training operation for Ukrainian forces, with the potential to train up to 10,000 soldiers every 120 days."

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-offer-major-training-programme-for-ukrainian-forces-as-prime-minister-hails-their-victorious-determination

    Quite a commitment.

    I like how the 10,000 number has obviously just been plucked out of thin air. I would also bet Johnson's book advance that it's news to the MoD too.
    Reading the MoD press release:

    "Each soldier would spend three weeks on the training course, learning battle winning skills for the front line, as well as basic medical training, cyber-security and counter explosive tactics."

    Though I note that the Ukranian Army has won more battles than our army over the last couple of decades. Indeed when was our army's last major victory?
    I also think that there is an urgent need to now start training the Ukrainians to use a wider range of NATO equipment.
    That will probably be different courses. It sounds like this one is taking civilians and teaching them the basics.

    Let's run some numbers. If we round three weeks to 20 days, then there are six cadres in the 120 days. 10,000 soldiers divided by 6 is about 1,600 people being trained at any one time.

    According to (1), we had 17,000 people join the military in a year - though not all will be the army. If basic training is about 20 weeks, then we probably have the capability to train 1,600 extra - though we may have to cut our own intake, or

    It certainly sniffs as though it is doable, but costly.

    (1): https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2021/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-october-2021
    What language is going to be used to train these thousands of troops?
    Ukrainian, at a guess. which means we will probably train the trainers (ones that know both Ukrainian and English, hopefully), who can then train their troops at our facilities, with our bods watching on.

    It seems reasonable enough. If you want it to be done, it will be done.

    And the language issue would be there wherever they train outside of Ukraine.

    (As an aside, some/many will speak Russian as well. That might be interesting...)
    In addition, various countries are already training lots of Ukrainians on relatively complex kit such as tanks and SAM systems. Not all the Ukrainians will know the host country's language, and I haven't heard it being reported as being an issue.
    I don’t think there has been much detail provided on the 2014-to-now training that has already occurred. Presumably they managed the language issue for that.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a variation of the pyramid methods used to train non-English speaking troops during the er… past of the U.K. - train the training staff from those who speak English. Who then train others, who don’t, under supervision
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,454
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    vino said:

    vino said:

    algarkirk said:

    🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol
    👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies

    Why?
    💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success
    ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote

    #WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox

    inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…

    It's on

    I don't think this is impossible. But it must be less likely if the Tories get hammered in T and H. A result like Shropshire would not be great for election 2022 prospects, though Tory MPs/party would do well to despatch Boris quickly (don't hold your breath, having already missed the big chance, they really are that craven and useless.)

    But something tells me that T and H is not home and dry for the LDs. It seems to me about 70/30. I just slightly wonder if Labour will accidentally split the vote enough, unlike Shropshire, to let the Tories hold on.
    With you on this - can a Labour brexit voter ever vote for the Lib Dems? - unless of course they hate Boris so much.
    I don't think the three Labour Brexit voters in T&H will make that much of a dent in the LD's total, tbh.
    You should be right but it's the local election results ( I know I know) where the results just don't seem to reflect the Opinion Polls - last night for example the Tories had their best results for some time and its throwing my calculations
    You need to drill down deeper there. Their percentages only increased in 2. Both of which were special in that previous independents/UKIp didn't stand, so the votes of all 3 main parties weren't really comparable.
    Thats not quite right. % gains in 3 and in Warwick they only lost 0.6%.
    In kidderminster they gained as much as Lab and LD combined
    But yes, differential party line ups etc
    They were 4 good results for the Tories generally but its 4 wards
    Tough to really judge the Kidderminster one though. We don't really know who votes ICHC, but

    Foxy said:

    Why should it be newsworthy that a day in mid-June is the hottest of the year so far? Summer is here. That's what is meant to happen.

    If it was the case in November, that would be a story.

    Hot sunny days near mid-summer? Who would have predicted that 😎
    You are confusing daylight hours with heating.

    June is not traditionally a hot month despite having long hours of sunshine. Insolation means late July and early August are hotter. Hence why all the records are made in that period.
    The equivalent would be having a really cold snap in mid-December. Equally. It's late January and February when you expect that.
    Not that we get that much any more anyway.
    Memories fade quickly. Here in Wiltshire we had two falls of snow over 10 inches in 2018, another in 2019, a fall of 4 inches in 2021. We have misleading memories of what U.K. winters are like. Yes there has been some warming but snow was never that frequent and widespread, certainly not where I live. The really cold winters of 47 and 63 stand out for a reason.
    Haven't had a really bad one since the 2009-10 winter. And December 2010.
    Incidentally. People forget, a huge factor in the "Winter of Discontent" was it was the fifth coldest of the Century.
    What price an overdue severe one this time?
    The weather geek in me would love it, but I really hope not for all the folk who can’t afford to keep warm.

    December 2010 was the coldest in 100 years. A truly exceptional month.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    vino said:

    vino said:

    algarkirk said:

    🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol
    👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies

    Why?
    💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success
    ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote

    #WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox

    inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…

    It's on

    I don't think this is impossible. But it must be less likely if the Tories get hammered in T and H. A result like Shropshire would not be great for election 2022 prospects, though Tory MPs/party would do well to despatch Boris quickly (don't hold your breath, having already missed the big chance, they really are that craven and useless.)

    But something tells me that T and H is not home and dry for the LDs. It seems to me about 70/30. I just slightly wonder if Labour will accidentally split the vote enough, unlike Shropshire, to let the Tories hold on.
    With you on this - can a Labour brexit voter ever vote for the Lib Dems? - unless of course they hate Boris so much.
    I don't think the three Labour Brexit voters in T&H will make that much of a dent in the LD's total, tbh.
    You should be right but it's the local election results ( I know I know) where the results just don't seem to reflect the Opinion Polls - last night for example the Tories had their best results for some time and its throwing my calculations
    You need to drill down deeper there. Their percentages only increased in 2. Both of which were special in that previous independents/UKIp didn't stand, so the votes of all 3 main parties weren't really comparable.
    Thats not quite right. % gains in 3 and in Warwick they only lost 0.6%.
    In kidderminster they gained as much as Lab and LD combined
    But yes, differential party line ups etc
    They were 4 good results for the Tories generally but its 4 wards
    I think they lost 6.8% in Warwick.
    Ah depends which we compare to! 6.8% down ftom 2021 by election, 0.6% down from 2019 locsls, the last main election for the ward and 2019 was a poor set of results so yes in this hyper marginal theyll be a little disappointed
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,493
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    Nothing exceptional about today’s temperatures in Britain. 32.7C at Sandton Downham was hot for the time of year - we rarely get 32C+ before the solstice, but it’s certainly not freakish.

    The more exceptional context is across Western Europe. Earliest ever 40C in France yesterday, another 40+ today, coming after the hottest May on record there and widespread exceptional drought, June records falling in Spain, pre-monsoon records in India etc.

    Almost every year these days a summer heat dome forms over Western and Central Europe giving locations that used to get a few days in the 30s every summer regular 35C+ heatwaves. We continue to get all the Atlantic crap but occasionally benefit from the odd waft of the hot stuff. The frequency of 34 and 35C days in England in the last couple of decades has jumped far faster than the average summer temperature has (as foretold by simple maths when there is a shift in a normal distribution).

    I'd rather have the "Atlantic crap" thank you very much. 30°C+ conditions are fit for nothing except sitting somewhere shady with a fan constantly on and a cold drink. An inconvenience for a day, a miserable endurance trial if it goes on for weeks.
    There’s a happy medium between Atlantic Crap and the Venusian temperatures of modern European summers. Sadly we seem to get it only rarely, though much of this working week fitted the bill. 24-27C with lots of sunshine.
    Part of the art is to adapt your clothes (and timetable, and architecture) to the weather.

    Seville is an incredibly civilised place to live, but it depends on fountains, siestas and shady streets.

    And taking all of August off.
    Very nice, I'm sure, but even if we set aside the practicalities of everyone having a whacking great holiday at the same time (and if this would mean we'd have naff all annual leave remaining to use for the remainder of the year,) demolishing and rebuilding the nation's entire housing stock does strike one as a trifle ambitious.

    Practical measures are needed, and the best I can do is sit here in front of this stupid fan I've got on and wait and wait and wait for the roasting hot air to cool down a bit before I can go to bed (i.e. I've probably got to endure until past midnight.)

    This is one of those occasions when I have particular reason to curse the astronomical property prices in this rotten country: anywhere sensible I could've afforded to trade up from a flat to a small house years ago, and then I'd have at least one of the rooms fitted with a decent aircon unit to deal properly with this problem.
    Most houses in the UK don't have aircon. If you're using a fairly crappy 'fly killer' sort of rotary fan, and can afford a little upgrade, a beefier fan unit/humidifier might be a worthwhile investment.
    I had a portable unit but it weighed a bloody ton, was deeply impractical to empty the water out of and so loud as to make it quite difficult to get to sleep with it grumbling and growling away in the same room. I'd like something wall mounted instead, but even if I could find an installer able to mount it on the exterior of the block about ten metres up in the air I doubt very much that the freeholder would be terribly pleased about my having a great hole drilled in the side of the building and an ugly box bolted to the outside.

    So, I'm stuck with some species of crappy fan, I'm afraid.
    You can get quite nice knock off Dyson bladeless fans for just above 100. Pretty quiet too.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,876

    vino said:

    vino said:

    algarkirk said:

    🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol
    👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies

    Why?
    💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success
    ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote

    #WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox

    inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…

    It's on

    I don't think this is impossible. But it must be less likely if the Tories get hammered in T and H. A result like Shropshire would not be great for election 2022 prospects, though Tory MPs/party would do well to despatch Boris quickly (don't hold your breath, having already missed the big chance, they really are that craven and useless.)

    But something tells me that T and H is not home and dry for the LDs. It seems to me about 70/30. I just slightly wonder if Labour will accidentally split the vote enough, unlike Shropshire, to let the Tories hold on.
    With you on this - can a Labour brexit voter ever vote for the Lib Dems? - unless of course they hate Boris so much.
    I don't think the three Labour Brexit voters in T&H will make that much of a dent in the LD's total, tbh.
    You should be right but it's the local election results ( I know I know) where the results just don't seem to reflect the Opinion Polls - last night for example the Tories had their best results for some time and its throwing my calculations
    You need to drill down deeper there. Their percentages only increased in 2. Both of which were special in that previous independents/UKIp didn't stand, so the votes of all 3 main parties weren't really comparable.
    Thats not quite right. % gains in 3 and in Warwick they only lost 0.6%.
    In kidderminster they gained as much as Lab and LD combined
    But yes, differential party line ups etc
    They were 4 good results for the Tories generally but its 4 wards
    I think they lost 6.8% in Warwick.
    Ah depends which we compare to! 6.8% down ftom 2021 by election, 0.6% down from 2019 locsls, the last main election for the ward and 2019 was a poor set of results so yes in this hyper marginal theyll be a little disappointed
    oic. Beg your pardon.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,597
    Dura_Ace said:

    fitalass said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Don't know if this has been covered yet:

    "The Prime Minister has offered to launch a major training operation for Ukrainian forces, with the potential to train up to 10,000 soldiers every 120 days."

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-offer-major-training-programme-for-ukrainian-forces-as-prime-minister-hails-their-victorious-determination

    Quite a commitment.

    I like how the 10,000 number has obviously just been plucked out of thin air. I would also bet Johnson's book advance that it's news to the MoD too.
    Reading the MoD press release:

    "Each soldier would spend three weeks on the training course, learning battle winning skills for the front line, as well as basic medical training, cyber-security and counter explosive tactics."

    Though I note that the Ukranian Army has won more battles than our army over the last couple of decades. Indeed when was our army's last major victory?
    I also think that there is an urgent need to now start training the Ukrainians to use a wider range of NATO equipment.
    That will probably be different courses. It sounds like this one is taking civilians and teaching them the basics.

    Let's run some numbers. If we round three weeks to 20 days, then there are six cadres in the 120 days. 10,000 soldiers divided by 6 is about 1,600 people being trained at any one time.

    According to (1), we had 17,000 people join the military in a year - though not all will be the army. If basic training is about 20 weeks, then we probably have the capability to train 1,600 extra - though we may have to cut our own intake, or

    It certainly sniffs as though it is doable, but costly.

    (1): https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2021/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-october-2021
    What language is going to be used to train these thousands of troops?
    "What are we supposed to use, sir? Harsh language?"
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    vino said:

    vino said:

    algarkirk said:

    🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol
    👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies

    Why?
    💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success
    ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote

    #WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox

    inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…

    It's on

    I don't think this is impossible. But it must be less likely if the Tories get hammered in T and H. A result like Shropshire would not be great for election 2022 prospects, though Tory MPs/party would do well to despatch Boris quickly (don't hold your breath, having already missed the big chance, they really are that craven and useless.)

    But something tells me that T and H is not home and dry for the LDs. It seems to me about 70/30. I just slightly wonder if Labour will accidentally split the vote enough, unlike Shropshire, to let the Tories hold on.
    With you on this - can a Labour brexit voter ever vote for the Lib Dems? - unless of course they hate Boris so much.
    I don't think the three Labour Brexit voters in T&H will make that much of a dent in the LD's total, tbh.
    You should be right but it's the local election results ( I know I know) where the results just don't seem to reflect the Opinion Polls - last night for example the Tories had their best results for some time and its throwing my calculations
    You need to drill down deeper there. Their percentages only increased in 2. Both of which were special in that previous independents/UKIp didn't stand, so the votes of all 3 main parties weren't really comparable.
    Thats not quite right. % gains in 3 and in Warwick they only lost 0.6%.
    In kidderminster they gained as much as Lab and LD combined
    But yes, differential party line ups etc
    They were 4 good results for the Tories generally but its 4 wards
    Tough to really judge the Kidderminster one though. We don't really know who votes ICHC, but

    Foxy said:

    Why should it be newsworthy that a day in mid-June is the hottest of the year so far? Summer is here. That's what is meant to happen.

    If it was the case in November, that would be a story.

    Hot sunny days near mid-summer? Who would have predicted that 😎
    You are confusing daylight hours with heating.

    June is not traditionally a hot month despite having long hours of sunshine. Insolation means late July and early August are hotter. Hence why all the records are made in that period.
    The equivalent would be having a really cold snap in mid-December. Equally. It's late January and February when you expect that.
    Not that we get that much any more anyway.
    Memories fade quickly. Here in Wiltshire we had two falls of snow over 10 inches in 2018, another in 2019, a fall of 4 inches in 2021. We have misleading memories of what U.K. winters are like. Yes there has been some warming but snow was never that frequent and widespread, certainly not where I live. The really cold winters of 47 and 63 stand out for a reason.
    Haven't had a really bad one since the 2009-10 winter. And December 2010.
    Incidentally. People forget, a huge factor in the "Winter of Discontent" was it was the fifth coldest of the Century.
    What price an overdue severe one this time?
    The weather geek in me would love it, but I really hope not for all the folk who can’t afford to keep warm.

    December 2010 was the coldest in 100 years. A truly exceptional month.
    Some sources reckon the coldest December in England since records began in 17th Century.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,006
    .
    fitalass said:

    I agree with Alex.

    Twitter
    [email protected]·2h
    I don’t care if the prime minister’s trip to Ukraine today is cynical or opportunistic; on this issue he has said and, importantly, *done* many of the right things. It should be possible to recognise this while still thinking him a dreadful, unfit, PM.

    https://twitter.com/alexmassie

    Oddly enough, so do I - and I’ve previously given him credit for exactly this.

    But it’s also important that he avoids turning our support for Ukraine into any kind of party political issue - and Wallace’s Twitter fulminations are also ill judged on that point, even if the PM were pure as the driven (which is doubtful).

    The training thing is not obviously daft. Ukraine has lost, and continues to lose a lot of their experienced troops, killed or wounded. And tying down too many more in training duties is sub optimal.
    But the plan is clearly not all that advanced - “ International partners would be invited to host the programme, if the offer is accepted by Ukraine...” - and it’s not entirely obvious why it takes a PR visit to advance it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297
    edited June 17

    Vaguely on topic, over the last two days the entire population of Brighton and far beyond seems to have been working not from home, but from the beach or its bars. Astonishing crowds, mostly of working age, among a few retirees (like me) not sheltering from the heat.

    I think I've worked out why the UK economy is in the doldrums and we have a productivity problem.

    Too many people out counting how many folk on beaches and in bars rather than working? :wink:
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,454
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    vino said:

    vino said:

    algarkirk said:

    🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol
    👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies

    Why?
    💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success
    ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote

    #WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox

    inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…

    It's on

    I don't think this is impossible. But it must be less likely if the Tories get hammered in T and H. A result like Shropshire would not be great for election 2022 prospects, though Tory MPs/party would do well to despatch Boris quickly (don't hold your breath, having already missed the big chance, they really are that craven and useless.)

    But something tells me that T and H is not home and dry for the LDs. It seems to me about 70/30. I just slightly wonder if Labour will accidentally split the vote enough, unlike Shropshire, to let the Tories hold on.
    With you on this - can a Labour brexit voter ever vote for the Lib Dems? - unless of course they hate Boris so much.
    I don't think the three Labour Brexit voters in T&H will make that much of a dent in the LD's total, tbh.
    You should be right but it's the local election results ( I know I know) where the results just don't seem to reflect the Opinion Polls - last night for example the Tories had their best results for some time and its throwing my calculations
    You need to drill down deeper there. Their percentages only increased in 2. Both of which were special in that previous independents/UKIp didn't stand, so the votes of all 3 main parties weren't really comparable.
    Thats not quite right. % gains in 3 and in Warwick they only lost 0.6%.
    In kidderminster they gained as much as Lab and LD combined
    But yes, differential party line ups etc
    They were 4 good results for the Tories generally but its 4 wards
    Tough to really judge the Kidderminster one though. We don't really know who votes ICHC, but

    Foxy said:

    Why should it be newsworthy that a day in mid-June is the hottest of the year so far? Summer is here. That's what is meant to happen.

    If it was the case in November, that would be a story.

    Hot sunny days near mid-summer? Who would have predicted that 😎
    You are confusing daylight hours with heating.

    June is not traditionally a hot month despite having long hours of sunshine. Insolation means late July and early August are hotter. Hence why all the records are made in that period.
    The equivalent would be having a really cold snap in mid-December. Equally. It's late January and February when you expect that.
    Not that we get that much any more anyway.
    Memories fade quickly. Here in Wiltshire we had two falls of snow over 10 inches in 2018, another in 2019, a fall of 4 inches in 2021. We have misleading memories of what U.K. winters are like. Yes there has been some warming but snow was never that frequent and widespread, certainly not where I live. The really cold winters of 47 and 63 stand out for a reason.
    Haven't had a really bad one since the 2009-10 winter. And December 2010.
    Incidentally. People forget, a huge factor in the "Winter of Discontent" was it was the fifth coldest of the Century.
    What price an overdue severe one this time?
    The weather geek in me would love it, but I really hope not for all the folk who can’t afford to keep warm.

    December 2010 was the coldest in 100 years. A truly exceptional month.
    Some sources reckon the coldest December in England since records began in 17th Century.
    Topped down at -15 deg C for us over snow cover with clear skys.
    Beast from the east was also special in 2018. Walking the dog as snow came down at -8 deg C in wiltshire(!) and just blew around on the frozen roads. Then walking in the blizzard next day as snow fell for 10 hours with the temp not getting above -3.5 deg C. Amazing days. Snowdrifts cutting my parents village off from the outside world just as in 1978 to 1982.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,493

    Dura_Ace said:

    fitalass said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Don't know if this has been covered yet:

    "The Prime Minister has offered to launch a major training operation for Ukrainian forces, with the potential to train up to 10,000 soldiers every 120 days."

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-offer-major-training-programme-for-ukrainian-forces-as-prime-minister-hails-their-victorious-determination

    Quite a commitment.

    I like how the 10,000 number has obviously just been plucked out of thin air. I would also bet Johnson's book advance that it's news to the MoD too.
    Reading the MoD press release:

    "Each soldier would spend three weeks on the training course, learning battle winning skills for the front line, as well as basic medical training, cyber-security and counter explosive tactics."

    Though I note that the Ukranian Army has won more battles than our army over the last couple of decades. Indeed when was our army's last major victory?
    I also think that there is an urgent need to now start training the Ukrainians to use a wider range of NATO equipment.
    That will probably be different courses. It sounds like this one is taking civilians and teaching them the basics.

    Let's run some numbers. If we round three weeks to 20 days, then there are six cadres in the 120 days. 10,000 soldiers divided by 6 is about 1,600 people being trained at any one time.

    According to (1), we had 17,000 people join the military in a year - though not all will be the army. If basic training is about 20 weeks, then we probably have the capability to train 1,600 extra - though we may have to cut our own intake, or

    It certainly sniffs as though it is doable, but costly.

    (1): https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2021/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-october-2021
    What language is going to be used to train these thousands of troops?
    "What are we supposed to use, sir? Harsh language?"
    They could always try English as a foreign language.
    https://youtu.be/3iJ9gnt7wNo
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    vino said:

    vino said:

    algarkirk said:

    🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol
    👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies

    Why?
    💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success
    ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote

    #WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox

    inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…

    It's on

    I don't think this is impossible. But it must be less likely if the Tories get hammered in T and H. A result like Shropshire would not be great for election 2022 prospects, though Tory MPs/party would do well to despatch Boris quickly (don't hold your breath, having already missed the big chance, they really are that craven and useless.)

    But something tells me that T and H is not home and dry for the LDs. It seems to me about 70/30. I just slightly wonder if Labour will accidentally split the vote enough, unlike Shropshire, to let the Tories hold on.
    With you on this - can a Labour brexit voter ever vote for the Lib Dems? - unless of course they hate Boris so much.
    I don't think the three Labour Brexit voters in T&H will make that much of a dent in the LD's total, tbh.
    You should be right but it's the local election results ( I know I know) where the results just don't seem to reflect the Opinion Polls - last night for example the Tories had their best results for some time and its throwing my calculations
    You need to drill down deeper there. Their percentages only increased in 2. Both of which were special in that previous independents/UKIp didn't stand, so the votes of all 3 main parties weren't really comparable.
    Thats not quite right. % gains in 3 and in Warwick they only lost 0.6%.
    In kidderminster they gained as much as Lab and LD combined
    But yes, differential party line ups etc
    They were 4 good results for the Tories generally but its 4 wards
    I think they lost 6.8% in Warwick.
    Ah depends which we compare to! 6.8% down ftom 2021 by election, 0.6% down from 2019 locsls, the last main election for the ward and 2019 was a poor set of results so yes in this hyper marginal theyll be a little disappointed
    oic. Beg your pardon.
    Id missed there was a 2021 by election tbf, going off Britain Elects figures
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,631
    So if we get to the end of August without a day hotter than today then it will be newsworthy. But I am sure that nobody will report that.

    Well, it may be discussed on PB. (The home of real news.)

    Anyhow, the person who designed our house did us a favour when it comes to hot weather. The bedrooms are all north facing so stay cooler for longer than the living room and dining room/kitchen which get the full sun.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Nigelb said:

    .

    fitalass said:

    I agree with Alex.

    Twitter
    [email protected]·2h
    I don’t care if the prime minister’s trip to Ukraine today is cynical or opportunistic; on this issue he has said and, importantly, *done* many of the right things. It should be possible to recognise this while still thinking him a dreadful, unfit, PM.

    https://twitter.com/alexmassie

    Oddly enough, so do I - and I’ve previously given him credit for exactly this.

    But it’s also important that he avoids turning our support for Ukraine into any kind of party political issue - and Wallace’s Twitter fulminations are also ill judged on that point, even if the PM were pure as the driven (which is doubtful).

    The training thing is not obviously daft. Ukraine has lost, and continues to lose a lot of their experienced troops, killed or wounded. And tying down too many more in training duties is sub optimal.
    But the plan is clearly not all that advanced - “ International partners would be invited to host the programme, if the offer is accepted by Ukraine...” - and it’s not entirely obvious why it takes a PR visit to advance it.
    Because he's a fat posturing shitbag

    And it's not his money he is spending it's ours, and it's not his own policy it's his government's, at least in theory. Always this need to recreate the first days of the love affair with the FLSOJ.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,145

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    Nothing exceptional about today’s temperatures in Britain. 32.7C at Sandton Downham was hot for the time of year - we rarely get 32C+ before the solstice, but it’s certainly not freakish.

    The more exceptional context is across Western Europe. Earliest ever 40C in France yesterday, another 40+ today, coming after the hottest May on record there and widespread exceptional drought, June records falling in Spain, pre-monsoon records in India etc.

    Almost every year these days a summer heat dome forms over Western and Central Europe giving locations that used to get a few days in the 30s every summer regular 35C+ heatwaves. We continue to get all the Atlantic crap but occasionally benefit from the odd waft of the hot stuff. The frequency of 34 and 35C days in England in the last couple of decades has jumped far faster than the average summer temperature has (as foretold by simple maths when there is a shift in a normal distribution).

    I'd rather have the "Atlantic crap" thank you very much. 30°C+ conditions are fit for nothing except sitting somewhere shady with a fan constantly on and a cold drink. An inconvenience for a day, a miserable endurance trial if it goes on for weeks.
    There’s a happy medium between Atlantic Crap and the Venusian temperatures of modern European summers. Sadly we seem to get it only rarely, though much of this working week fitted the bill. 24-27C with lots of sunshine.
    Part of the art is to adapt your clothes (and timetable, and architecture) to the weather.

    Seville is an incredibly civilised place to live, but it depends on fountains, siestas and shady streets.

    And taking all of August off.
    Very nice, I'm sure, but even if we set aside the practicalities of everyone having a whacking great holiday at the same time (and if this would mean we'd have naff all annual leave remaining to use for the remainder of the year,) demolishing and rebuilding the nation's entire housing stock does strike one as a trifle ambitious.

    Practical measures are needed, and the best I can do is sit here in front of this stupid fan I've got on and wait and wait and wait for the roasting hot air to cool down a bit before I can go to bed (i.e. I've probably got to endure until past midnight.)

    This is one of those occasions when I have particular reason to curse the astronomical property prices in this rotten country: anywhere sensible I could've afforded to trade up from a flat to a small house years ago, and then I'd have at least one of the rooms fitted with a decent aircon unit to deal properly with this problem.
    Most houses in the UK don't have aircon. If you're using a fairly crappy 'fly killer' sort of rotary fan, and can afford a little upgrade, a beefier fan unit/humidifier might be a worthwhile investment.
    I had a portable unit but it weighed a bloody ton, was deeply impractical to empty the water out of and so loud as to make it quite difficult to get to sleep with it grumbling and growling away in the same room. I'd like something wall mounted instead, but even if I could find an installer able to mount it on the exterior of the block about ten metres up in the air I doubt very much that the freeholder would be terribly pleased about my having a great hole drilled in the side of the building and an ugly box bolted to the outside.

    So, I'm stuck with some species of crappy fan, I'm afraid.
    You can get quite nice knock off Dyson bladeless fans for just above 100. Pretty quiet too.
    Yes, I can understand the attraction of the bladeless things, but all fans are fundamentally limited by the fact that all they do is stir the hot air around, so you only derive any benefit from them as long as you're sat in the draft. And even then you can be sat in a chair having your front cooled whilst your back's still sticking to your shirt. You really want a proper heat exchange system that'll dump all the crappy hot air outside.

    My workplace has, for reasons I shan't bore you with, a superb air handling system that keeps the room pretty much exactly at 20°C every day of the year. I always feel a little bit more positive about having to go to work on days like the one we're slowly crawling towards the end of.
  • Nigelb said:

    .

    fitalass said:

    I agree with Alex.

    Twitter
    [email protected]·2h
    I don’t care if the prime minister’s trip to Ukraine today is cynical or opportunistic; on this issue he has said and, importantly, *done* many of the right things. It should be possible to recognise this while still thinking him a dreadful, unfit, PM.

    https://twitter.com/alexmassie

    Oddly enough, so do I - and I’ve previously given him credit for exactly this.

    But it’s also important that he avoids turning our support for Ukraine into any kind of party political issue - and Wallace’s Twitter fulminations are also ill judged on that point, even if the PM were pure as the driven (which is doubtful).

    The training thing is not obviously daft. Ukraine has lost, and continues to lose a lot of their experienced troops, killed or wounded. And tying down too many more in training duties is sub optimal.
    But the plan is clearly not all that advanced - “ International partners would be invited to host the programme, if the offer is accepted by Ukraine...” - and it’s not entirely obvious why it takes a PR visit to advance it.
    I think it's also worth pointing out that it would be impossible to get as much as a cigarette paper between the Government's Ukraine policy and that of any other political party in Westminster. So what Johnson is doing isn't particularly novel, brave or inspired.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    fitalass said:

    I agree with Alex.

    Twitter
    [email protected]·2h
    I don’t care if the prime minister’s trip to Ukraine today is cynical or opportunistic; on this issue he has said and, importantly, *done* many of the right things. It should be possible to recognise this while still thinking him a dreadful, unfit, PM.

    https://twitter.com/alexmassie

    Oddly enough, so do I - and I’ve previously given him credit for exactly this.

    But it’s also important that he avoids turning our support for Ukraine into any kind of party political issue - and Wallace’s Twitter fulminations are also ill judged on that point, even if the PM were pure as the driven (which is doubtful).

    The training thing is not obviously daft. Ukraine has lost, and continues to lose a lot of their experienced troops, killed or wounded. And tying down too many more in training duties is sub optimal.
    But the plan is clearly not all that advanced - “ International partners would be invited to host the programme, if the offer is accepted by Ukraine...” - and it’s not entirely obvious why it takes a PR visit to advance it.
    Because he's a fat posturing shitbag.
    Wall-arse or Johnson?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Dura_Ace said:

    fitalass said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Don't know if this has been covered yet:

    "The Prime Minister has offered to launch a major training operation for Ukrainian forces, with the potential to train up to 10,000 soldiers every 120 days."

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-offer-major-training-programme-for-ukrainian-forces-as-prime-minister-hails-their-victorious-determination

    Quite a commitment.

    I like how the 10,000 number has obviously just been plucked out of thin air. I would also bet Johnson's book advance that it's news to the MoD too.
    Reading the MoD press release:

    "Each soldier would spend three weeks on the training course, learning battle winning skills for the front line, as well as basic medical training, cyber-security and counter explosive tactics."

    Though I note that the Ukranian Army has won more battles than our army over the last couple of decades. Indeed when was our army's last major victory?
    I also think that there is an urgent need to now start training the Ukrainians to use a wider range of NATO equipment.
    That will probably be different courses. It sounds like this one is taking civilians and teaching them the basics.

    Let's run some numbers. If we round three weeks to 20 days, then there are six cadres in the 120 days. 10,000 soldiers divided by 6 is about 1,600 people being trained at any one time.

    According to (1), we had 17,000 people join the military in a year - though not all will be the army. If basic training is about 20 weeks, then we probably have the capability to train 1,600 extra - though we may have to cut our own intake, or

    It certainly sniffs as though it is doable, but costly.

    (1): https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-2021/quarterly-service-personnel-statistics-1-october-2021
    What language is going to be used to train these thousands of troops?
    "What are we supposed to use, sir? Harsh language?"
    I like to keep this handy for close encounters.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    fitalass said:

    I agree with Alex.

    Twitter
    [email protected]·2h
    I don’t care if the prime minister’s trip to Ukraine today is cynical or opportunistic; on this issue he has said and, importantly, *done* many of the right things. It should be possible to recognise this while still thinking him a dreadful, unfit, PM.

    https://twitter.com/alexmassie

    Oddly enough, so do I - and I’ve previously given him credit for exactly this.

    But it’s also important that he avoids turning our support for Ukraine into any kind of party political issue - and Wallace’s Twitter fulminations are also ill judged on that point, even if the PM were pure as the driven (which is doubtful).

    The training thing is not obviously daft. Ukraine has lost, and continues to lose a lot of their experienced troops, killed or wounded. And tying down too many more in training duties is sub optimal.
    But the plan is clearly not all that advanced - “ International partners would be invited to host the programme, if the offer is accepted by Ukraine...” - and it’s not entirely obvious why it takes a PR visit to advance it.
    Because he's a fat posturing shitbag.
    Wall-arse or Johnson?
    Yes
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    pigeon said:

    all fans are fundamentally limited by the fact that all they do is stir the hot air around, so you only derive any benefit from them as long as you're sat in the draft.

    Ceiling fan. Gamechanger
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,006

    dixiedean said:

    vino said:

    vino said:

    algarkirk said:

    🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol
    👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies

    Why?
    💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success
    ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote

    #WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox

    inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…

    It's on

    I don't think this is impossible. But it must be less likely if the Tories get hammered in T and H. A result like Shropshire would not be great for election 2022 prospects, though Tory MPs/party would do well to despatch Boris quickly (don't hold your breath, having already missed the big chance, they really are that craven and useless.)

    But something tells me that T and H is not home and dry for the LDs. It seems to me about 70/30. I just slightly wonder if Labour will accidentally split the vote enough, unlike Shropshire, to let the Tories hold on.
    With you on this - can a Labour brexit voter ever vote for the Lib Dems? - unless of course they hate Boris so much.
    I don't think the three Labour Brexit voters in T&H will make that much of a dent in the LD's total, tbh.
    You should be right but it's the local election results ( I know I know) where the results just don't seem to reflect the Opinion Polls - last night for example the Tories had their best results for some time and its throwing my calculations
    You need to drill down deeper there. Their percentages only increased in 2. Both of which were special in that previous independents/UKIp didn't stand, so the votes of all 3 main parties weren't really comparable.
    Thats not quite right. % gains in 3 and in Warwick they only lost 0.6%.
    In kidderminster they gained as much as Lab and LD combined
    But yes, differential party line ups etc
    They were 4 good results for the Tories generally but its 4 wards
    Tough to really judge the Kidderminster one though. We don't really know who votes ICHC, but

    Foxy said:

    Why should it be newsworthy that a day in mid-June is the hottest of the year so far? Summer is here. That's what is meant to happen.

    If it was the case in November, that would be a story.

    Hot sunny days near mid-summer? Who would have predicted that 😎
    You are confusing daylight hours with heating.

    June is not traditionally a hot month despite having long hours of sunshine. Insolation means late July and early August are hotter. Hence why all the records are made in that period.
    The equivalent would be having a really cold snap in mid-December. Equally. It's late January and February when you expect that.
    Not that we get that much any more anyway.
    Memories fade quickly. Here in Wiltshire we had two falls of snow over 10 inches in 2018, another in 2019, a fall of 4 inches in 2021. We have misleading memories of what U.K. winters are like. Yes there has been some warming but snow was never that frequent and widespread, certainly not where I live. The really cold winters of 47 and 63 stand out for a reason.
    Indeed. People are completely clueless when it comes to winter weather “I remember six feet of snow”. You really don’t - that would be a once in 250 year event in England.
    My mother does.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_1946–47_in_the_United_Kingdom
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,187

    So if we get to the end of August without a day hotter than today then it will be newsworthy. But I am sure that nobody will report that.

    Well, it may be discussed on PB. (The home of real news.)

    Anyhow, the person who designed our house did us a favour when it comes to hot weather. The bedrooms are all north facing so stay cooler for longer than the living room and dining room/kitchen which get the full sun.

    Rarely needed in Yorkshire however.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,635
    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    vino said:

    vino said:

    algarkirk said:

    🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol
    👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies

    Why?
    💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success
    ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote

    #WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox

    inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…

    It's on

    I don't think this is impossible. But it must be less likely if the Tories get hammered in T and H. A result like Shropshire would not be great for election 2022 prospects, though Tory MPs/party would do well to despatch Boris quickly (don't hold your breath, having already missed the big chance, they really are that craven and useless.)

    But something tells me that T and H is not home and dry for the LDs. It seems to me about 70/30. I just slightly wonder if Labour will accidentally split the vote enough, unlike Shropshire, to let the Tories hold on.
    With you on this - can a Labour brexit voter ever vote for the Lib Dems? - unless of course they hate Boris so much.
    I don't think the three Labour Brexit voters in T&H will make that much of a dent in the LD's total, tbh.
    You should be right but it's the local election results ( I know I know) where the results just don't seem to reflect the Opinion Polls - last night for example the Tories had their best results for some time and its throwing my calculations
    You need to drill down deeper there. Their percentages only increased in 2. Both of which were special in that previous independents/UKIp didn't stand, so the votes of all 3 main parties weren't really comparable.
    Thats not quite right. % gains in 3 and in Warwick they only lost 0.6%.
    In kidderminster they gained as much as Lab and LD combined
    But yes, differential party line ups etc
    They were 4 good results for the Tories generally but its 4 wards
    Tough to really judge the Kidderminster one though. We don't really know who votes ICHC, but

    Foxy said:

    Why should it be newsworthy that a day in mid-June is the hottest of the year so far? Summer is here. That's what is meant to happen.

    If it was the case in November, that would be a story.

    Hot sunny days near mid-summer? Who would have predicted that 😎
    You are confusing daylight hours with heating.

    June is not traditionally a hot month despite having long hours of sunshine. Insolation means late July and early August are hotter. Hence why all the records are made in that period.
    The equivalent would be having a really cold snap in mid-December. Equally. It's late January and February when you expect that.
    Not that we get that much any more anyway.
    Memories fade quickly. Here in Wiltshire we had two falls of snow over 10 inches in 2018, another in 2019, a fall of 4 inches in 2021. We have misleading memories of what U.K. winters are like. Yes there has been some warming but snow was never that frequent and widespread, certainly not where I live. The really cold winters of 47 and 63 stand out for a reason.
    Indeed. People are completely clueless when it comes to winter weather “I remember six feet of snow”. You really don’t - that would be a once in 250 year event in England.
    My mother does.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_1946–47_in_the_United_Kingdom
    And 1962/3

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_1962–63_in_the_United_Kingdom
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453

    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    Nothing exceptional about today’s temperatures in Britain. 32.7C at Sandton Downham was hot for the time of year - we rarely get 32C+ before the solstice, but it’s certainly not freakish.

    The more exceptional context is across Western Europe. Earliest ever 40C in France yesterday, another 40+ today, coming after the hottest May on record there and widespread exceptional drought, June records falling in Spain, pre-monsoon records in India etc.

    Almost every year these days a summer heat dome forms over Western and Central Europe giving locations that used to get a few days in the 30s every summer regular 35C+ heatwaves. We continue to get all the Atlantic crap but occasionally benefit from the odd waft of the hot stuff. The frequency of 34 and 35C days in England in the last couple of decades has jumped far faster than the average summer temperature has (as foretold by simple maths when there is a shift in a normal distribution).

    I'd rather have the "Atlantic crap" thank you very much. 30°C+ conditions are fit for nothing except sitting somewhere shady with a fan constantly on and a cold drink. An inconvenience for a day, a miserable endurance trial if it goes on for weeks.
    There’s a happy medium between Atlantic Crap and the Venusian temperatures of modern European summers. Sadly we seem to get it only rarely, though much of this working week fitted the bill. 24-27C with lots of sunshine.
    Part of the art is to adapt your clothes (and timetable, and architecture) to the weather.

    Seville is an incredibly civilised place to live, but it depends on fountains, siestas and shady streets.

    And taking all of August off.
    Very nice, I'm sure, but even if we set aside the practicalities of everyone having a whacking great holiday at the same time (and if this would mean we'd have naff all annual leave remaining to use for the remainder of the year,) demolishing and rebuilding the nation's entire housing stock does strike one as a trifle ambitious.

    Practical measures are needed, and the best I can do is sit here in front of this stupid fan I've got on and wait and wait and wait for the roasting hot air to cool down a bit before I can go to bed (i.e. I've probably got to endure until past midnight.)

    This is one of those occasions when I have particular reason to curse the astronomical property prices in this rotten country: anywhere sensible I could've afforded to trade up from a flat to a small house years ago, and then I'd have at least one of the rooms fitted with a decent aircon unit to deal properly with this problem.
    Most houses in the UK don't have aircon. If you're using a fairly crappy 'fly killer' sort of rotary fan, and can afford a little upgrade, a beefier fan unit/humidifier might be a worthwhile investment.
    AirCon is the positive feedback system in global warming. As tropical counties get richer and hotter, more people have it, and heat their neighbours with it, in a sort of tragedy of the Commons.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/29/the-air-conditioning-trap-how-cold-air-is-heating-the-world

    Much better is the traditional style of Spanish courtyards or Marrakech houses, or the large shaded Verandas of Australia and the Deep South.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    vino said:

    vino said:

    algarkirk said:

    🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol
    👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies

    Why?
    💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success
    ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote

    #WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox

    inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…

    It's on

    I don't think this is impossible. But it must be less likely if the Tories get hammered in T and H. A result like Shropshire would not be great for election 2022 prospects, though Tory MPs/party would do well to despatch Boris quickly (don't hold your breath, having already missed the big chance, they really are that craven and useless.)

    But something tells me that T and H is not home and dry for the LDs. It seems to me about 70/30. I just slightly wonder if Labour will accidentally split the vote enough, unlike Shropshire, to let the Tories hold on.
    With you on this - can a Labour brexit voter ever vote for the Lib Dems? - unless of course they hate Boris so much.
    I don't think the three Labour Brexit voters in T&H will make that much of a dent in the LD's total, tbh.
    You should be right but it's the local election results ( I know I know) where the results just don't seem to reflect the Opinion Polls - last night for example the Tories had their best results for some time and its throwing my calculations
    You need to drill down deeper there. Their percentages only increased in 2. Both of which were special in that previous independents/UKIp didn't stand, so the votes of all 3 main parties weren't really comparable.
    Thats not quite right. % gains in 3 and in Warwick they only lost 0.6%.
    In kidderminster they gained as much as Lab and LD combined
    But yes, differential party line ups etc
    They were 4 good results for the Tories generally but its 4 wards
    Tough to really judge the Kidderminster one though. We don't really know who votes ICHC, but

    Foxy said:

    Why should it be newsworthy that a day in mid-June is the hottest of the year so far? Summer is here. That's what is meant to happen.

    If it was the case in November, that would be a story.

    Hot sunny days near mid-summer? Who would have predicted that 😎
    You are confusing daylight hours with heating.

    June is not traditionally a hot month despite having long hours of sunshine. Insolation means late July and early August are hotter. Hence why all the records are made in that period.
    The equivalent would be having a really cold snap in mid-December. Equally. It's late January and February when you expect that.
    Not that we get that much any more anyway.
    Memories fade quickly. Here in Wiltshire we had two falls of snow over 10 inches in 2018, another in 2019, a fall of 4 inches in 2021. We have misleading memories of what U.K. winters are like. Yes there has been some warming but snow was never that frequent and widespread, certainly not where I live. The really cold winters of 47 and 63 stand out for a reason.
    Indeed. People are completely clueless when it comes to winter weather “I remember six feet of snow”. You really don’t - that would be a once in 250 year event in England.
    My mother does.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_1946–47_in_the_United_Kingdom
    There was another very bad winter in 1939-1940 especially in January of that year. The temperature in Ambleside was recorded at -21C. The country nearly ran out of coal, because so much was being burned for gas and heating and transport links were so disrupted. If Hitler had attacked then Britain would have been helpless.

    However, it is not much spoken about as Chamberlain's government for understandable reasons ordered the press not to publish anything. So everyone assumed it was just a bit cold where they were and didn't realise it nearly led to disaster.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,876
    Scott_xP said:

    pigeon said:

    all fans are fundamentally limited by the fact that all they do is stir the hot air around, so you only derive any benefit from them as long as you're sat in the draft.

    Ceiling fan. Gamechanger
    I used to place a fan on a window sill next to an open window, blowing cooler air inside the house.

    Don't need it in Wales at the moment.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    vino said:

    vino said:

    algarkirk said:

    🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol
    👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies

    Why?
    💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success
    ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote

    #WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox

    inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…

    It's on

    I don't think this is impossible. But it must be less likely if the Tories get hammered in T and H. A result like Shropshire would not be great for election 2022 prospects, though Tory MPs/party would do well to despatch Boris quickly (don't hold your breath, having already missed the big chance, they really are that craven and useless.)

    But something tells me that T and H is not home and dry for the LDs. It seems to me about 70/30. I just slightly wonder if Labour will accidentally split the vote enough, unlike Shropshire, to let the Tories hold on.
    With you on this - can a Labour brexit voter ever vote for the Lib Dems? - unless of course they hate Boris so much.
    I don't think the three Labour Brexit voters in T&H will make that much of a dent in the LD's total, tbh.
    You should be right but it's the local election results ( I know I know) where the results just don't seem to reflect the Opinion Polls - last night for example the Tories had their best results for some time and its throwing my calculations
    You need to drill down deeper there. Their percentages only increased in 2. Both of which were special in that previous independents/UKIp didn't stand, so the votes of all 3 main parties weren't really comparable.
    Thats not quite right. % gains in 3 and in Warwick they only lost 0.6%.
    In kidderminster they gained as much as Lab and LD combined
    But yes, differential party line ups etc
    They were 4 good results for the Tories generally but its 4 wards
    Tough to really judge the Kidderminster one though. We don't really know who votes ICHC, but

    Foxy said:

    Why should it be newsworthy that a day in mid-June is the hottest of the year so far? Summer is here. That's what is meant to happen.

    If it was the case in November, that would be a story.

    Hot sunny days near mid-summer? Who would have predicted that 😎
    You are confusing daylight hours with heating.

    June is not traditionally a hot month despite having long hours of sunshine. Insolation means late July and early August are hotter. Hence why all the records are made in that period.
    The equivalent would be having a really cold snap in mid-December. Equally. It's late January and February when you expect that.
    Not that we get that much any more anyway.
    Memories fade quickly. Here in Wiltshire we had two falls of snow over 10 inches in 2018, another in 2019, a fall of 4 inches in 2021. We have misleading memories of what U.K. winters are like. Yes there has been some warming but snow was never that frequent and widespread, certainly not where I live. The really cold winters of 47 and 63 stand out for a reason.
    Haven't had a really bad one since the 2009-10 winter. And December 2010.
    Incidentally. People forget, a huge factor in the "Winter of Discontent" was it was the fifth coldest of the Century.
    What price an overdue severe one this time?
    The weather geek in me would love it, but I really hope not for all the folk who can’t afford to keep warm.

    December 2010 was the coldest in 100 years. A truly exceptional month.
    Around me it snowed on 1 Dec and didn't thaw until after Christmas. It is the only white Christmas that I have known.
  • Guardian front page, Saturday 18 June 2022: Schools, pools and libraries face massive cuts
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,454
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    vino said:

    vino said:

    algarkirk said:

    🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol
    👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies

    Why?
    💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success
    ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote

    #WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox

    inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…

    It's on

    I don't think this is impossible. But it must be less likely if the Tories get hammered in T and H. A result like Shropshire would not be great for election 2022 prospects, though Tory MPs/party would do well to despatch Boris quickly (don't hold your breath, having already missed the big chance, they really are that craven and useless.)

    But something tells me that T and H is not home and dry for the LDs. It seems to me about 70/30. I just slightly wonder if Labour will accidentally split the vote enough, unlike Shropshire, to let the Tories hold on.
    With you on this - can a Labour brexit voter ever vote for the Lib Dems? - unless of course they hate Boris so much.
    I don't think the three Labour Brexit voters in T&H will make that much of a dent in the LD's total, tbh.
    You should be right but it's the local election results ( I know I know) where the results just don't seem to reflect the Opinion Polls - last night for example the Tories had their best results for some time and its throwing my calculations
    You need to drill down deeper there. Their percentages only increased in 2. Both of which were special in that previous independents/UKIp didn't stand, so the votes of all 3 main parties weren't really comparable.
    Thats not quite right. % gains in 3 and in Warwick they only lost 0.6%.
    In kidderminster they gained as much as Lab and LD combined
    But yes, differential party line ups etc
    They were 4 good results for the Tories generally but its 4 wards
    Tough to really judge the Kidderminster one though. We don't really know who votes ICHC, but

    Foxy said:

    Why should it be newsworthy that a day in mid-June is the hottest of the year so far? Summer is here. That's what is meant to happen.

    If it was the case in November, that would be a story.

    Hot sunny days near mid-summer? Who would have predicted that 😎
    You are confusing daylight hours with heating.

    June is not traditionally a hot month despite having long hours of sunshine. Insolation means late July and early August are hotter. Hence why all the records are made in that period.
    The equivalent would be having a really cold snap in mid-December. Equally. It's late January and February when you expect that.
    Not that we get that much any more anyway.
    Memories fade quickly. Here in Wiltshire we had two falls of snow over 10 inches in 2018, another in 2019, a fall of 4 inches in 2021. We have misleading memories of what U.K. winters are like. Yes there has been some warming but snow was never that frequent and widespread, certainly not where I live. The really cold winters of 47 and 63 stand out for a reason.
    Indeed. People are completely clueless when it comes to winter weather “I remember six feet of snow”. You really don’t - that would be a once in 250 year event in England.
    My mother does.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_1946–47_in_the_United_Kingdom
    There was another very bad winter in 1939-1940 especially in January of that year. The temperature in Ambleside was recorded at -21C. The country nearly ran out of coal, because so much was being burned for gas and heating and transport links were so disrupted. If Hitler had attacked then Britain would have been helpless.

    However, it is not much spoken about as Chamberlain's government for understandable reasons ordered the press not to publish anything. So everyone assumed it was just a bit cold where they were and didn't realise it nearly led to disaster.
    WW2 had several notable winters. The battle of the bulge was fought in one of the worst cold winters in Europe in decades.
    It’s not remembered much but the 1930’s had seen a long run of largely snowless winters in the U.K., which came to an end in the one you described.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    edited June 17
    Further gross incompetence in education:

    GCSE and A-levels: Mistakes in AQA papers caused ‘pupil distress’, Ofqual says
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-61844041

    AQA did the same for chemistry - both gcse and A-level - although that isn’t mentioned in the report.

    It would make me wonder what the exams are actually worth, if I didn’t know due to the appalling mistakes OFQUAL made in drawing up the criteria, ignoring all input from both academia and secondary education, they are more or less worthless anyway.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631

    Guardian front page, Saturday 18 June 2022: Schools, pools and libraries face massive cuts

    There isn’t much more we can cut in schools and keep them open. But as @dixiedean has indicated that’s at best 50/50 anyway in a lot of cases.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    edited June 17
    One of the nicest things in the heat is a Mandi, like in Indonesia and Malaysia. Very environmentally friendly too as low water consumption, and no energy needed.

    http://jed.revolutia.info/2008/12/understanding-kamar-mandi-indonesian.html?m=1

    Traditionally the Mandi was a large earthenware jar, and the evaporation kept it cool, even on a steaming day. You ladle the water over yourself, soap off and rinse. There usually is no towel, but in the heat the evaporation has a pleasant cooling effect. It is very refreshing in such steamy tropics, but not often found in hotels aimed at tourists.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453

    Guardian front page, Saturday 18 June 2022: Schools, pools and libraries face massive cuts

    I am surprised there are any council pools or libraries left.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    FT Weekend: Clinton: We are on precipice of losing our democracy.

    Echoes her comments to New Statesman from a visit and lecture in S Shields.



    These are the most dangerous times for the US republic since the civil war I think.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,790
    ydoethur said:

    Further gross incompetence in education:

    GCSE and A-levels: Mistakes in AQA papers caused ‘pupil distress’, Ofqual says
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-61844041

    AQA did the same for chemistry - both gcse and A-level - although that isn’t mentioned in the report.

    It would make me wonder what the exams are actually worth, if I didn’t know due to the appalling mistakes OFQUAL made in drawing up the criteria, ignoring all input from both academia and secondary education, they are more or less worthless anyway.

    The heart of the Johnsonism paradox.

    To make it all (I.e. all of this) work, you need super competent people to make it happen.

    But nobody competent would do things this way. And to question Johnson is to die.

    And that's what will do for this government. They're just not up to running the country.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,372

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    When/if Starmer falls how Labour are going to decide between this guy and one of the top women for leader is going to be v interesting.

    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1537780992378822657

    Picking a leader because they are a woman rather than on merit gives you Julia Gillard, Theresa May, Kim Campbell or Valerie Pecresse or Edith Cresson or Kezia Dugale. If Streeting is the best candidate in a future Labour leadership election he is the best candidate.

    In any case we have already had a woman PM but not had an openly homosexual PM like Streeting
    May was chosen on merit.

    Not her merit, mind, but that of her opponents
    I believe very strongly that had her opponent been selected, we'd have enjoyed a far more fruitful time politically since then than we did.
    Because Leadsom was able to reach across both party lines and the bitterness created by the referendum, and could forge a united view on Brexit?

    Not seeing it myself, but it's good to have a view.
    I think I agree with @Luckyguy1983, but for different reasons.

    May would have won, because Leadsom was clearly mad and deluded. After all, the Conservative Party wasn't as Brexit Puritan then as it became.

    And having won in a real (but unbalanced) fight, May would have been in a stronger position to push her vision through. Winning by default weakened her.
    Since she held down several Ministerial positions subsequently, and is still a respected MP, I think it's pretty clear that 'mad and deluded' here translates fairly simply as 'opposed to my own world view'. Reading on to find apparently unironic references to May and 'vision' on the same sentence, I'm not really sure what to engage with here in terms of a serious argument. I am not one of the lady's detractors - she did her best, but visionary she was not. And in the end she was cruelly found wanting.
    When you say "held down", what do you mean?

    She was shunted pretty sharpish from every appointment, no? Moved to ever more ceremonial roles until she was back on the backbenches.
    1. Are you arguing that the woman is insane? If not, I'm not sure why you're arguing. She held down several posts and was afaik not removed from any of them for being anything less than A1 mentally capable.
    2. I find it funny how people who profess no admiration for Johnson's judgement in Ministerial appointments (quite the opposite), suddently flip to highlighting
    lack of advancement in his cabinet as a valid criticism of someone's abilities. It's Dura Ace's main criticism of Mordaunt that she's not a shining star in the firmament of Boris's inner circle. Now it's apparently a criticism of Leadsom that she's not the current Jacob Rees Mogg.
    No, I'm arguing that her career (either in politics or beforehand) has not contained flashes of competence.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,238
    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    Nothing exceptional about today’s temperatures in Britain. 32.7C at Sandton Downham was hot for the time of year - we rarely get 32C+ before the solstice, but it’s certainly not freakish.

    The more exceptional context is across Western Europe. Earliest ever 40C in France yesterday, another 40+ today, coming after the hottest May on record there and widespread exceptional drought, June records falling in Spain, pre-monsoon records in India etc.

    Almost every year these days a summer heat dome forms over Western and Central Europe giving locations that used to get a few days in the 30s every summer regular 35C+ heatwaves. We continue to get all the Atlantic crap but occasionally benefit from the odd waft of the hot stuff. The frequency of 34 and 35C days in England in the last couple of decades has jumped far faster than the average summer temperature has (as foretold by simple maths when there is a shift in a normal distribution).

    I'd rather have the "Atlantic crap" thank you very much. 30°C+ conditions are fit for nothing except sitting somewhere shady with a fan constantly on and a cold drink. An inconvenience for a day, a miserable endurance trial if it goes on for weeks.
    There’s a happy medium between Atlantic Crap and the Venusian temperatures of modern European summers. Sadly we seem to get it only rarely, though much of this working week fitted the bill. 24-27C with lots of sunshine.
    Part of the art is to adapt your clothes (and timetable, and architecture) to the weather.

    Seville is an incredibly civilised place to live, but it depends on fountains, siestas and shady streets.

    And taking all of August off.
    Very nice, I'm sure, but even if we set aside the practicalities of everyone having a whacking great holiday at the same time (and if this would mean we'd have naff all annual leave remaining to use for the remainder of the year,) demolishing and rebuilding the nation's entire housing stock does strike one as a trifle ambitious.

    Practical measures are needed, and the best I can do is sit here in front of this stupid fan I've got on and wait and wait and wait for the roasting hot air to cool down a bit before I can go to bed (i.e. I've probably got to endure until past midnight.)

    This is one of those occasions when I have particular reason to curse the astronomical property prices in this rotten country: anywhere sensible I could've afforded to trade up from a flat to a small house years ago, and then I'd have at least one of the rooms fitted with a decent aircon unit to deal properly with this problem.
    Most houses in the UK don't have aircon. If you're using a fairly crappy 'fly killer' sort of rotary fan, and can afford a little upgrade, a beefier fan unit/humidifier might be a worthwhile investment.
    AirCon is the positive feedback system in global warming. As tropical counties get richer and hotter, more people have it, and heat their neighbours with it, in a sort of tragedy of the Commons.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/29/the-air-conditioning-trap-how-cold-air-is-heating-the-world

    Much better is the traditional style of Spanish courtyards or Marrakech houses, or the large shaded Verandas of Australia and the Deep South.

    Cities of the World Where You Don’t Need AC or Heat:

    Antananarivo, Madagascar
    Bogotá, Colombia
    Caracas, Venezuela
    Durban, South Africa
    Guatemala City, Guatemala
    Lima, Peru
    Mexico City, Mexico
    Nairobi, Kenya
    Port Elizabeth, South Africa
    Quito, Ecuador
    San Diego, California
    São Paulo, Brazil
    Sydney, Australia

    https://mnolangray.medium.com/cities-of-the-world-where-you-dont-need-ac-or-heat-mapped-2a3d6e018970
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631

    FT Weekend: Clinton: We are on precipice of losing our democracy.

    Echoes her comments to New Statesman from a visit and lecture in S Shields.



    These are the most dangerous times for the US republic since the civil war I think.

    More so. The Confedaracy never threatened the existence of the USA, or its democratic structures (Lincoln's umm, drastic measures in Maryland aside) just its territorial extent.

    This is existential. If Trump runs again, there is a real chance of civil war and the collapse of the Federal government.

    I'm starting to think @Dura_Ace was right and the best thing is for somebody to shoot the Orange-haired lunatic.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,177
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    vino said:

    vino said:

    algarkirk said:

    🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol
    👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies

    Why?
    💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success
    ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote

    #WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox

    inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…

    It's on

    I don't think this is impossible. But it must be less likely if the Tories get hammered in T and H. A result like Shropshire would not be great for election 2022 prospects, though Tory MPs/party would do well to despatch Boris quickly (don't hold your breath, having already missed the big chance, they really are that craven and useless.)

    But something tells me that T and H is not home and dry for the LDs. It seems to me about 70/30. I just slightly wonder if Labour will accidentally split the vote enough, unlike Shropshire, to let the Tories hold on.
    With you on this - can a Labour brexit voter ever vote for the Lib Dems? - unless of course they hate Boris so much.
    I don't think the three Labour Brexit voters in T&H will make that much of a dent in the LD's total, tbh.
    You should be right but it's the local election results ( I know I know) where the results just don't seem to reflect the Opinion Polls - last night for example the Tories had their best results for some time and its throwing my calculations
    You need to drill down deeper there. Their percentages only increased in 2. Both of which were special in that previous independents/UKIp didn't stand, so the votes of all 3 main parties weren't really comparable.
    Thats not quite right. % gains in 3 and in Warwick they only lost 0.6%.
    In kidderminster they gained as much as Lab and LD combined
    But yes, differential party line ups etc
    They were 4 good results for the Tories generally but its 4 wards
    Tough to really judge the Kidderminster one though. We don't really know who votes ICHC, but

    Foxy said:

    Why should it be newsworthy that a day in mid-June is the hottest of the year so far? Summer is here. That's what is meant to happen.

    If it was the case in November, that would be a story.

    Hot sunny days near mid-summer? Who would have predicted that 😎
    You are confusing daylight hours with heating.

    June is not traditionally a hot month despite having long hours of sunshine. Insolation means late July and early August are hotter. Hence why all the records are made in that period.
    The equivalent would be having a really cold snap in mid-December. Equally. It's late January and February when you expect that.
    Not that we get that much any more anyway.
    Memories fade quickly. Here in Wiltshire we had two falls of snow over 10 inches in 2018, another in 2019, a fall of 4 inches in 2021. We have misleading memories of what U.K. winters are like. Yes there has been some warming but snow was never that frequent and widespread, certainly not where I live. The really cold winters of 47 and 63 stand out for a reason.
    Indeed. People are completely clueless when it comes to winter weather “I remember six feet of snow”. You really don’t - that would be a once in 250 year event in England.
    My mother does.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_1946–47_in_the_United_Kingdom
    There was another very bad winter in 1939-1940 especially in January of that year. The temperature in Ambleside was recorded at -21C. The country nearly ran out of coal, because so much was being burned for gas and heating and transport links were so disrupted. If Hitler had attacked then Britain would have been helpless.

    However, it is not much spoken about as Chamberlain's government for understandable reasons ordered the press not to publish anything. So everyone assumed it was just a bit cold where they were and didn't realise it nearly led to disaster.
    Sure it wasn’t 1940-1? I remember heavy snow in West Wales in Jan. 41.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,018

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    Nothing exceptional about today’s temperatures in Britain. 32.7C at Sandton Downham was hot for the time of year - we rarely get 32C+ before the solstice, but it’s certainly not freakish.

    The more exceptional context is across Western Europe. Earliest ever 40C in France yesterday, another 40+ today, coming after the hottest May on record there and widespread exceptional drought, June records falling in Spain, pre-monsoon records in India etc.

    Almost every year these days a summer heat dome forms over Western and Central Europe giving locations that used to get a few days in the 30s every summer regular 35C+ heatwaves. We continue to get all the Atlantic crap but occasionally benefit from the odd waft of the hot stuff. The frequency of 34 and 35C days in England in the last couple of decades has jumped far faster than the average summer temperature has (as foretold by simple maths when there is a shift in a normal distribution).

    I'd rather have the "Atlantic crap" thank you very much. 30°C+ conditions are fit for nothing except sitting somewhere shady with a fan constantly on and a cold drink. An inconvenience for a day, a miserable endurance trial if it goes on for weeks.
    There’s a happy medium between Atlantic Crap and the Venusian temperatures of modern European summers. Sadly we seem to get it only rarely, though much of this working week fitted the bill. 24-27C with lots of sunshine.
    Part of the art is to adapt your clothes (and timetable, and architecture) to the weather.

    Seville is an incredibly civilised place to live, but it depends on fountains, siestas and shady streets.

    And taking all of August off.
    Very nice, I'm sure, but even if we set aside the practicalities of everyone having a whacking great holiday at the same time (and if this would mean we'd have naff all annual leave remaining to use for the remainder of the year,) demolishing and rebuilding the nation's entire housing stock does strike one as a trifle ambitious.

    Practical measures are needed, and the best I can do is sit here in front of this stupid fan I've got on and wait and wait and wait for the roasting hot air to cool down a bit before I can go to bed (i.e. I've probably got to endure until past midnight.)

    This is one of those occasions when I have particular reason to curse the astronomical property prices in this rotten country: anywhere sensible I could've afforded to trade up from a flat to a small house years ago, and then I'd have at least one of the rooms fitted with a decent aircon unit to deal properly with this problem.
    Most houses in the UK don't have aircon. If you're using a fairly crappy 'fly killer' sort of rotary fan, and can afford a little upgrade, a beefier fan unit/humidifier might be a worthwhile investment.
    AirCon is the positive feedback system in global warming. As tropical counties get richer and hotter, more people have it, and heat their neighbours with it, in a sort of tragedy of the Commons.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/29/the-air-conditioning-trap-how-cold-air-is-heating-the-world

    Much better is the traditional style of Spanish courtyards or Marrakech houses, or the large shaded Verandas of Australia and the Deep South.

    Cities of the World Where You Don’t Need AC or Heat:

    Antananarivo, Madagascar
    Bogotá, Colombia
    Caracas, Venezuela
    Durban, South Africa
    Guatemala City, Guatemala
    Lima, Peru
    Mexico City, Mexico
    Nairobi, Kenya
    Port Elizabeth, South Africa
    Quito, Ecuador
    San Diego, California
    São Paulo, Brazil
    Sydney, Australia

    https://mnolangray.medium.com/cities-of-the-world-where-you-dont-need-ac-or-heat-mapped-2a3d6e018970
    Both Lima and Sydney - if you don’t have AC in the high summer, you are one of TSEs Dockside Friends….
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,790
    Foxy said:

    Guardian front page, Saturday 18 June 2022: Schools, pools and libraries face massive cuts

    I am surprised there are any council pools or libraries left.
    I think there's a statutory requirement to have some sort of public library service. But it's increasingly thin. It's noticeable that our local one has fewer shelves than a decade ago.
  • Foxy said:

    One of the nicest things in the heat is a Mandi, like in Indonesia and Malaysia. Very environmentally friendly too as low water consumption, and no energy needed.

    http://jed.revolutia.info/2008/12/understanding-kamar-mandi-indonesian.html?m=1

    Traditionally the Mandi was a large earthenware jar, and the evaporation kept it cool, even on a steaming day. You ladle the water over yourself, soap off and rinse. There usually is no towel, but in the heat the evaporation has a pleasant cooling effect. It is very refreshing in such steamy tropics, but not often found in hotels aimed at tourists.

    That ties in with another Old Colonial trick from Malaya - wash your hands if you are feeling hot, particularly your wrists. There's more accessible blood supply there, and if your wrists are refreshed then so will you be.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,958

    US YouGov poll:

    https://news.yahoo.com/poll-biden-disapproval-hits-new-high-as-more-americans-say-they-would-vote-for-trump-090021657.html

    The survey of 1,541 U.S. adults, which was conducted from June 10-13, found that if another presidential election were held today, more registered voters say they would cast ballots for Donald Trump (44%) than for Biden (42%)

    A full 56% of Americans now disapprove of the president’s performance — the highest share to date — while just 39% approve. Three weeks ago, those numbers were 53% and 42%, respectively.

    On average, Biden’s job approval scores are now a few points worse than Trump’s were at the parallel stage of his presidency.

    Among all Americans, Trump (43%) now has a higher personal favorability rating than Biden (40%) as well. Meanwhile, nearly two-thirds of independents (64%) have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, and just 28% say they would vote for him over Trump.

    How depressing
    You sort of wonder just what Trump would have to do to truly lose popularity there.

    Perhaps we'll find out.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093

    US YouGov poll:

    https://news.yahoo.com/poll-biden-disapproval-hits-new-high-as-more-americans-say-they-would-vote-for-trump-090021657.html

    The survey of 1,541 U.S. adults, which was conducted from June 10-13, found that if another presidential election were held today, more registered voters say they would cast ballots for Donald Trump (44%) than for Biden (42%)

    A full 56% of Americans now disapprove of the president’s performance — the highest share to date — while just 39% approve. Three weeks ago, those numbers were 53% and 42%, respectively.

    On average, Biden’s job approval scores are now a few points worse than Trump’s were at the parallel stage of his presidency.

    Among all Americans, Trump (43%) now has a higher personal favorability rating than Biden (40%) as well. Meanwhile, nearly two-thirds of independents (64%) have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, and just 28% say they would vote for him over Trump.

    How depressing
    Brace.

    As @leon would say.

    Unless the hearings on insurrection manage to actually end in a Trump trial we are looking at him winning a second term.

    And if he fails to win but claims he did then we are looking at political violence on a massive scale as Robert Kagan wrote the other day.



  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    edited June 17

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    vino said:

    vino said:

    algarkirk said:

    🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol
    👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies

    Why?
    💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success
    ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote

    #WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox

    inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…

    It's on

    I don't think this is impossible. But it must be less likely if the Tories get hammered in T and H. A result like Shropshire would not be great for election 2022 prospects, though Tory MPs/party would do well to despatch Boris quickly (don't hold your breath, having already missed the big chance, they really are that craven and useless.)

    But something tells me that T and H is not home and dry for the LDs. It seems to me about 70/30. I just slightly wonder if Labour will accidentally split the vote enough, unlike Shropshire, to let the Tories hold on.
    With you on this - can a Labour brexit voter ever vote for the Lib Dems? - unless of course they hate Boris so much.
    I don't think the three Labour Brexit voters in T&H will make that much of a dent in the LD's total, tbh.
    You should be right but it's the local election results ( I know I know) where the results just don't seem to reflect the Opinion Polls - last night for example the Tories had their best results for some time and its throwing my calculations
    You need to drill down deeper there. Their percentages only increased in 2. Both of which were special in that previous independents/UKIp didn't stand, so the votes of all 3 main parties weren't really comparable.
    Thats not quite right. % gains in 3 and in Warwick they only lost 0.6%.
    In kidderminster they gained as much as Lab and LD combined
    But yes, differential party line ups etc
    They were 4 good results for the Tories generally but its 4 wards
    Tough to really judge the Kidderminster one though. We don't really know who votes ICHC, but

    Foxy said:

    Why should it be newsworthy that a day in mid-June is the hottest of the year so far? Summer is here. That's what is meant to happen.

    If it was the case in November, that would be a story.

    Hot sunny days near mid-summer? Who would have predicted that 😎
    You are confusing daylight hours with heating.

    June is not traditionally a hot month despite having long hours of sunshine. Insolation means late July and early August are hotter. Hence why all the records are made in that period.
    The equivalent would be having a really cold snap in mid-December. Equally. It's late January and February when you expect that.
    Not that we get that much any more anyway.
    Memories fade quickly. Here in Wiltshire we had two falls of snow over 10 inches in 2018, another in 2019, a fall of 4 inches in 2021. We have misleading memories of what U.K. winters are like. Yes there has been some warming but snow was never that frequent and widespread, certainly not where I live. The really cold winters of 47 and 63 stand out for a reason.
    Indeed. People are completely clueless when it comes to winter weather “I remember six feet of snow”. You really don’t - that would be a once in 250 year event in England.
    My mother does.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_1946–47_in_the_United_Kingdom
    There was another very bad winter in 1939-1940 especially in January of that year. The temperature in Ambleside was recorded at -21C. The country nearly ran out of coal, because so much was being burned for gas and heating and transport links were so disrupted. If Hitler had attacked then Britain would have been helpless.

    However, it is not much spoken about as Chamberlain's government for understandable reasons ordered the press not to publish anything. So everyone assumed it was just a bit cold where they were and didn't realise it nearly led to disaster.
    Sure it wasn’t 1940-1? I remember heavy snow in West Wales in Jan. 41.
    That's the one that was mentioned in my books. Doesn't mean there weren't others. Even today, historians tend to pile on to Chamberlain and ignore Churchill's difficulties.

    The 1940s were also noted for their very hot summers, of course. Which was an early side effect of global warming before global dimming made the 1960s into a cold, wet decade.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093
    I am reluctant to say this, but...

    Is all well with BBC News Huw?

    Seems all a bit slurry to me and off the pace? Just tired or not happy at new bollocks set?
  • vinovino Posts: 140
    Foxy said:

    Guardian front page, Saturday 18 June 2022: Schools, pools and libraries face massive cuts

    I am surprised there are any council pools or libraries left.
    Ours (Hucknall) is very good plus a free book swapping scheme in Co-op plus Wilkos (50p) etc
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,165
    Twitter
    John [email protected]
    Exclusive

    Secret recording exposes how Ian Blackford directed SNP group to back party's sex pest MP

    Westminster leader told them to give Patrick Grady their "absolute full support"

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1537905336253751304

    John [email protected]·10m
    Replying to
    @johnestevens
    In the leaked tape - obtained by @mailplus
    - a gathering of SNP MPs can be heard shouting “hear, hear” at calls for sex pest Patrick Grady to be supported by party

    John [email protected]·11m
    👉Ian Blackford in October 2017: "I am happy to affirm SNP Westminster group will have zero tolerance of unacceptable behaviour"

    👉Ian Blackford on Tuesday: "Patrick’s going to face a number of challenges and so he should have our absolute full support"
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493
    To be fair to the Big Dog, given a choice of Doncaster or *anywhere else*, I would opt for not Doncaster as well.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    John [email protected]
    Exclusive

    Secret recording exposes how Ian Blackford directed SNP group to back party's sex pest MP

    Westminster leader told them to give Patrick Grady their "absolute full support"

    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1537905336253751304

    John [email protected]·10m
    Replying to
    @johnestevens
    In the leaked tape - obtained by @mailplus
    - a gathering of SNP MPs can be heard shouting “hear, hear” at calls for sex pest Patrick Grady to be supported by party

    John [email protected]·11m
    👉Ian Blackford in October 2017: "I am happy to affirm SNP Westminster group will have zero tolerance of unacceptable behaviour"

    👉Ian Blackford on Tuesday: "Patrick’s going to face a number of challenges and so he should have our absolute full support"

    [opens popcorn]
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,093

    US YouGov poll:

    https://news.yahoo.com/poll-biden-disapproval-hits-new-high-as-more-americans-say-they-would-vote-for-trump-090021657.html

    The survey of 1,541 U.S. adults, which was conducted from June 10-13, found that if another presidential election were held today, more registered voters say they would cast ballots for Donald Trump (44%) than for Biden (42%)

    A full 56% of Americans now disapprove of the president’s performance — the highest share to date — while just 39% approve. Three weeks ago, those numbers were 53% and 42%, respectively.

    On average, Biden’s job approval scores are now a few points worse than Trump’s were at the parallel stage of his presidency.

    Among all Americans, Trump (43%) now has a higher personal favorability rating than Biden (40%) as well. Meanwhile, nearly two-thirds of independents (64%) have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, and just 28% say they would vote for him over Trump.

    How depressing
    You sort of wonder just what Trump would have to do to truly lose popularity there.

    Perhaps we'll find out.
    Not enough americans want to continue living in a democracy.

    California and most of eastern sea board succession within five years of a Trump win imho. Massive violence.

    Wake up America.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    ydoethur said:

    Further gross incompetence in education:

    GCSE and A-levels: Mistakes in AQA papers caused ‘pupil distress’, Ofqual says
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-61844041

    AQA did the same for chemistry - both gcse and A-level - although that isn’t mentioned in the report.

    It would make me wonder what the exams are actually worth, if I didn’t know due to the appalling mistakes OFQUAL made in drawing up the criteria, ignoring all input from both academia and secondary education, they are more or less worthless anyway.

    Personally, I preferred the curriculum of my early years as a junior doctor. The College examiners could put anything in that they thought you ought to know to be a specialist. It was the ultimate in self directed learning as in effect you had to figure out what that included, so you could devise your own curriculum.

    There could be no complaints about not getting advance notice of the topics in those days. Now we espouse self directed learning, but have such circumscribed curriculums that complaints proliferate. There is no more depressing question from a student than "are we going to be examined on this?", because if you answer "no, but it will be very useful to you as a Doctor" they switch off.

    Despite my illustrious career as a Medical Educator, or perhaps because of it, I am rather out of tune with the times. Fortunately I can play the game and fit the role, even though I see the system as fundamentally wrong-headed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916

    US YouGov poll:

    https://news.yahoo.com/poll-biden-disapproval-hits-new-high-as-more-americans-say-they-would-vote-for-trump-090021657.html

    The survey of 1,541 U.S. adults, which was conducted from June 10-13, found that if another presidential election were held today, more registered voters say they would cast ballots for Donald Trump (44%) than for Biden (42%)

    A full 56% of Americans now disapprove of the president’s performance — the highest share to date — while just 39% approve. Three weeks ago, those numbers were 53% and 42%, respectively.

    On average, Biden’s job approval scores are now a few points worse than Trump’s were at the parallel stage of his presidency.

    Among all Americans, Trump (43%) now has a higher personal favorability rating than Biden (40%) as well. Meanwhile, nearly two-thirds of independents (64%) have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, and just 28% say they would vote for him over Trump.

    The Democrats need a younger, more charismatic candidate like Buttigieg or O'Rourke in 2024 or Trump win win the second term her failed to get in 2020
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,177
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    vino said:

    vino said:

    algarkirk said:

    🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol
    👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies

    Why?
    💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success
    ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote

    #WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox

    inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…

    It's on

    I don't think this is impossible. But it must be less likely if the Tories get hammered in T and H. A result like Shropshire would not be great for election 2022 prospects, though Tory MPs/party would do well to despatch Boris quickly (don't hold your breath, having already missed the big chance, they really are that craven and useless.)

    But something tells me that T and H is not home and dry for the LDs. It seems to me about 70/30. I just slightly wonder if Labour will accidentally split the vote enough, unlike Shropshire, to let the Tories hold on.
    With you on this - can a Labour brexit voter ever vote for the Lib Dems? - unless of course they hate Boris so much.
    I don't think the three Labour Brexit voters in T&H will make that much of a dent in the LD's total, tbh.
    You should be right but it's the local election results ( I know I know) where the results just don't seem to reflect the Opinion Polls - last night for example the Tories had their best results for some time and its throwing my calculations
    You need to drill down deeper there. Their percentages only increased in 2. Both of which were special in that previous independents/UKIp didn't stand, so the votes of all 3 main parties weren't really comparable.
    Thats not quite right. % gains in 3 and in Warwick they only lost 0.6%.
    In kidderminster they gained as much as Lab and LD combined
    But yes, differential party line ups etc
    They were 4 good results for the Tories generally but its 4 wards
    Tough to really judge the Kidderminster one though. We don't really know who votes ICHC, but

    Foxy said:

    Why should it be newsworthy that a day in mid-June is the hottest of the year so far? Summer is here. That's what is meant to happen.

    If it was the case in November, that would be a story.

    Hot sunny days near mid-summer? Who would have predicted that 😎
    You are confusing daylight hours with heating.

    June is not traditionally a hot month despite having long hours of sunshine. Insolation means late July and early August are hotter. Hence why all the records are made in that period.
    The equivalent would be having a really cold snap in mid-December. Equally. It's late January and February when you expect that.
    Not that we get that much any more anyway.
    Memories fade quickly. Here in Wiltshire we had two falls of snow over 10 inches in 2018, another in 2019, a fall of 4 inches in 2021. We have misleading memories of what U.K. winters are like. Yes there has been some warming but snow was never that frequent and widespread, certainly not where I live. The really cold winters of 47 and 63 stand out for a reason.
    Indeed. People are completely clueless when it comes to winter weather “I remember six feet of snow”. You really don’t - that would be a once in 250 year event in England.
    My mother does.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_1946–47_in_the_United_Kingdom
    There was another very bad winter in 1939-1940 especially in January of that year. The temperature in Ambleside was recorded at -21C. The country nearly ran out of coal, because so much was being burned for gas and heating and transport links were so disrupted. If Hitler had attacked then Britain would have been helpless.

    However, it is not much spoken about as Chamberlain's government for understandable reasons ordered the press not to publish anything. So everyone assumed it was just a bit cold where they were and didn't realise it nearly led to disaster.
    Sure it wasn’t 1940-1? I remember heavy snow in West Wales in Jan. 41.
    That's the one that was mentioned in my books. Doesn't mean there weren't others. Even today, historians tend to pile on to Chamberlain and ignore Churchill's difficulties.

    The 1940s were also noted for their very hot summers, of course. Which was an early side effect of global warming before global dimming made the 1960s into a cold, wet decade.
    I was very young of course. We moved back to Essex in mid 1941 and I don’t remember another bad winter ….. snow etc ….. until 1946/7. Coronation Day in 1953 was wet.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,165
    Twitter
    Murdo [email protected]_fraser·4m
    There’s much in this story that’s horrendous. And there’s the thought that a SNP MP secretly recorded their colleagues and then gave it to the Daily Mail. Not a happy ship.

    https://twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/1537909026716954624
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453

    US YouGov poll:

    https://news.yahoo.com/poll-biden-disapproval-hits-new-high-as-more-americans-say-they-would-vote-for-trump-090021657.html

    The survey of 1,541 U.S. adults, which was conducted from June 10-13, found that if another presidential election were held today, more registered voters say they would cast ballots for Donald Trump (44%) than for Biden (42%)

    A full 56% of Americans now disapprove of the president’s performance — the highest share to date — while just 39% approve. Three weeks ago, those numbers were 53% and 42%, respectively.

    On average, Biden’s job approval scores are now a few points worse than Trump’s were at the parallel stage of his presidency.

    Among all Americans, Trump (43%) now has a higher personal favorability rating than Biden (40%) as well. Meanwhile, nearly two-thirds of independents (64%) have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, and just 28% say they would vote for him over Trump.

    How depressing
    You sort of wonder just what Trump would have to do to truly lose popularity there.

    Perhaps we'll find out.
    Not enough americans want to continue living in a democracy.

    California and most of eastern sea board succession within five years of a Trump win imho. Massive violence.

    Wake up America.
    No, when looked at county level, Blue America is an archipelago across a Republican sea, even on the coasts, and the Mountan States. It isn't possible to divide them geographically into separate countries.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,537
    edited June 17

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    Nothing exceptional about today’s temperatures in Britain. 32.7C at Sandton Downham was hot for the time of year - we rarely get 32C+ before the solstice, but it’s certainly not freakish.

    The more exceptional context is across Western Europe. Earliest ever 40C in France yesterday, another 40+ today, coming after the hottest May on record there and widespread exceptional drought, June records falling in Spain, pre-monsoon records in India etc.

    Almost every year these days a summer heat dome forms over Western and Central Europe giving locations that used to get a few days in the 30s every summer regular 35C+ heatwaves. We continue to get all the Atlantic crap but occasionally benefit from the odd waft of the hot stuff. The frequency of 34 and 35C days in England in the last couple of decades has jumped far faster than the average summer temperature has (as foretold by simple maths when there is a shift in a normal distribution).

    I'd rather have the "Atlantic crap" thank you very much. 30°C+ conditions are fit for nothing except sitting somewhere shady with a fan constantly on and a cold drink. An inconvenience for a day, a miserable endurance trial if it goes on for weeks.
    There’s a happy medium between Atlantic Crap and the Venusian temperatures of modern European summers. Sadly we seem to get it only rarely, though much of this working week fitted the bill. 24-27C with lots of sunshine.
    Part of the art is to adapt your clothes (and timetable, and architecture) to the weather.

    Seville is an incredibly civilised place to live, but it depends on fountains, siestas and shady streets.

    And taking all of August off.
    Very nice, I'm sure, but even if we set aside the practicalities of everyone having a whacking great holiday at the same time (and if this would mean we'd have naff all annual leave remaining to use for the remainder of the year,) demolishing and rebuilding the nation's entire housing stock does strike one as a trifle ambitious.

    Practical measures are needed, and the best I can do is sit here in front of this stupid fan I've got on and wait and wait and wait for the roasting hot air to cool down a bit before I can go to bed (i.e. I've probably got to endure until past midnight.)

    This is one of those occasions when I have particular reason to curse the astronomical property prices in this rotten country: anywhere sensible I could've afforded to trade up from a flat to a small house years ago, and then I'd have at least one of the rooms fitted with a decent aircon unit to deal properly with this problem.
    Most houses in the UK don't have aircon. If you're using a fairly crappy 'fly killer' sort of rotary fan, and can afford a little upgrade, a beefier fan unit/humidifier might be a worthwhile investment.
    AirCon is the positive feedback system in global warming. As tropical counties get richer and hotter, more people have it, and heat their neighbours with it, in a sort of tragedy of the Commons.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/29/the-air-conditioning-trap-how-cold-air-is-heating-the-world

    Much better is the traditional style of Spanish courtyards or Marrakech houses, or the large shaded Verandas of Australia and the Deep South.

    Cities of the World Where You Don’t Need AC or Heat:

    Antananarivo, Madagascar
    Bogotá, Colombia
    Caracas, Venezuela
    Durban, South Africa
    Guatemala City, Guatemala
    Lima, Peru
    Mexico City, Mexico
    Nairobi, Kenya
    Port Elizabeth, South Africa
    Quito, Ecuador
    San Diego, California
    São Paulo, Brazil
    Sydney, Australia

    https://mnolangray.medium.com/cities-of-the-world-where-you-dont-need-ac-or-heat-mapped-2a3d6e018970
    Both Lima and Sydney - if you don’t have AC in the high summer, you are one of TSEs Dockside Friends….
    Where is Auckland?

    Admittedly, you can get a frost in winter.
    I never saw snow, though, and was sent to school in a cotton shirt and shorts all year round.

    People use heat pumps now when it gets cold. When I was a kid it was a single fireplace in the living room, and hot water bottles.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Further gross incompetence in education:

    GCSE and A-levels: Mistakes in AQA papers caused ‘pupil distress’, Ofqual says
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-61844041

    AQA did the same for chemistry - both gcse and A-level - although that isn’t mentioned in the report.

    It would make me wonder what the exams are actually worth, if I didn’t know due to the appalling mistakes OFQUAL made in drawing up the criteria, ignoring all input from both academia and secondary education, they are more or less worthless anyway.

    Personally, I preferred the curriculum of my early years as a junior doctor. The College examiners could put anything in that they thought you ought to know to be a specialist. It was the ultimate in self directed learning as in effect you had to figure out what that included, so you could devise your own curriculum.

    There could be no complaints about not getting advance notice of the topics in those days. Now we espouse self directed learning, but have such circumscribed curriculums that complaints proliferate. There is no more depressing question from a student than "are we going to be examined on this?", because if you answer "no, but it will be very useful to you as a Doctor" they switch off.

    Despite my illustrious career as a Medical Educator, or perhaps because of it, I am rather out of tune with the times. Fortunately I can play the game and fit the role, even though I see the system as fundamentally wrong-headed.
    I would say there's nothing wrong with your eyesight, frankly.

    I'm currently writing a book in all my copious free time on the failings of education. The fact that our education system has become a production line for passing fundamentally ill-conceived exams bulks large in it.

    It will probably be unpublishable but it does me good to vent my rage on something.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,635
    Things from my youth that I assumed would last forever but which turned out to be impermanent...

    - Woolworths
    - ICI
    - Doorstep milk deliveries
    - Village pubs
    - Newspapers
    - The Warsaw Pact
    - The BBC
    - Western democracy

    I've had to scrub 'inflation' and 'strikes' from this list of the disappeared or disappearing as they've both made a late comeback.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,421
    ydoethur said:

    FT Weekend: Clinton: We are on precipice of losing our democracy.

    Echoes her comments to New Statesman from a visit and lecture in S Shields.



    These are the most dangerous times for the US republic since the civil war I think.

    More so. The Confedaracy never threatened the existence of the USA, or its democratic structures (Lincoln's umm, drastic measures in Maryland aside) just its territorial extent.

    This is existential. If Trump runs again, there is a real chance of civil war and the collapse of the Federal government.

    I'm starting to think @Dura_Ace was right and the best thing is for somebody to shoot the Orange-haired lunatic.
    The timing of the UK's decision to withdraw from European defence and security structures could not be better.

    Australia and NZ would be the immediate victims of the collapse of the US. They are in a rough neighbourhood and would be within the Chinese sphere of influence in very short order.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,635

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    Nothing exceptional about today’s temperatures in Britain. 32.7C at Sandton Downham was hot for the time of year - we rarely get 32C+ before the solstice, but it’s certainly not freakish.

    The more exceptional context is across Western Europe. Earliest ever 40C in France yesterday, another 40+ today, coming after the hottest May on record there and widespread exceptional drought, June records falling in Spain, pre-monsoon records in India etc.

    Almost every year these days a summer heat dome forms over Western and Central Europe giving locations that used to get a few days in the 30s every summer regular 35C+ heatwaves. We continue to get all the Atlantic crap but occasionally benefit from the odd waft of the hot stuff. The frequency of 34 and 35C days in England in the last couple of decades has jumped far faster than the average summer temperature has (as foretold by simple maths when there is a shift in a normal distribution).

    I'd rather have the "Atlantic crap" thank you very much. 30°C+ conditions are fit for nothing except sitting somewhere shady with a fan constantly on and a cold drink. An inconvenience for a day, a miserable endurance trial if it goes on for weeks.
    There’s a happy medium between Atlantic Crap and the Venusian temperatures of modern European summers. Sadly we seem to get it only rarely, though much of this working week fitted the bill. 24-27C with lots of sunshine.
    Part of the art is to adapt your clothes (and timetable, and architecture) to the weather.

    Seville is an incredibly civilised place to live, but it depends on fountains, siestas and shady streets.

    And taking all of August off.
    Very nice, I'm sure, but even if we set aside the practicalities of everyone having a whacking great holiday at the same time (and if this would mean we'd have naff all annual leave remaining to use for the remainder of the year,) demolishing and rebuilding the nation's entire housing stock does strike one as a trifle ambitious.

    Practical measures are needed, and the best I can do is sit here in front of this stupid fan I've got on and wait and wait and wait for the roasting hot air to cool down a bit before I can go to bed (i.e. I've probably got to endure until past midnight.)

    This is one of those occasions when I have particular reason to curse the astronomical property prices in this rotten country: anywhere sensible I could've afforded to trade up from a flat to a small house years ago, and then I'd have at least one of the rooms fitted with a decent aircon unit to deal properly with this problem.
    Most houses in the UK don't have aircon. If you're using a fairly crappy 'fly killer' sort of rotary fan, and can afford a little upgrade, a beefier fan unit/humidifier might be a worthwhile investment.
    AirCon is the positive feedback system in global warming. As tropical counties get richer and hotter, more people have it, and heat their neighbours with it, in a sort of tragedy of the Commons.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/29/the-air-conditioning-trap-how-cold-air-is-heating-the-world

    Much better is the traditional style of Spanish courtyards or Marrakech houses, or the large shaded Verandas of Australia and the Deep South.

    Cities of the World Where You Don’t Need AC or Heat:

    Antananarivo, Madagascar
    Bogotá, Colombia
    Caracas, Venezuela
    Durban, South Africa
    Guatemala City, Guatemala
    Lima, Peru
    Mexico City, Mexico
    Nairobi, Kenya
    Port Elizabeth, South Africa
    Quito, Ecuador
    San Diego, California
    São Paulo, Brazil
    Sydney, Australia

    https://mnolangray.medium.com/cities-of-the-world-where-you-dont-need-ac-or-heat-mapped-2a3d6e018970
    Both Lima and Sydney - if you don’t have AC in the high summer, you are one of TSEs Dockside Friends….
    Where is Auckland?

    It's in New Zealand. You should really know that.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,537

    US YouGov poll:

    https://news.yahoo.com/poll-biden-disapproval-hits-new-high-as-more-americans-say-they-would-vote-for-trump-090021657.html

    The survey of 1,541 U.S. adults, which was conducted from June 10-13, found that if another presidential election were held today, more registered voters say they would cast ballots for Donald Trump (44%) than for Biden (42%)

    A full 56% of Americans now disapprove of the president’s performance — the highest share to date — while just 39% approve. Three weeks ago, those numbers were 53% and 42%, respectively.

    On average, Biden’s job approval scores are now a few points worse than Trump’s were at the parallel stage of his presidency.

    Among all Americans, Trump (43%) now has a higher personal favorability rating than Biden (40%) as well. Meanwhile, nearly two-thirds of independents (64%) have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, and just 28% say they would vote for him over Trump.

    How depressing
    You sort of wonder just what Trump would have to do to truly lose popularity there.

    Perhaps we'll find out.
    Not enough americans want to continue living in a democracy.

    California and most of eastern sea board succession within five years of a Trump win imho. Massive violence.

    Wake up America.
    America does not want to be woke, at least on those numbers.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297

    Foxy said:

    Guardian front page, Saturday 18 June 2022: Schools, pools and libraries face massive cuts

    I am surprised there are any council pools or libraries left.
    I think there's a statutory requirement to have some sort of public library service. But it's increasingly thin. It's noticeable that our local one has fewer shelves than a decade ago.
    Summat to burn in a harsh winter, mind.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,308
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    Nothing exceptional about today’s temperatures in Britain. 32.7C at Sandton Downham was hot for the time of year - we rarely get 32C+ before the solstice, but it’s certainly not freakish.

    The more exceptional context is across Western Europe. Earliest ever 40C in France yesterday, another 40+ today, coming after the hottest May on record there and widespread exceptional drought, June records falling in Spain, pre-monsoon records in India etc.

    Almost every year these days a summer heat dome forms over Western and Central Europe giving locations that used to get a few days in the 30s every summer regular 35C+ heatwaves. We continue to get all the Atlantic crap but occasionally benefit from the odd waft of the hot stuff. The frequency of 34 and 35C days in England in the last couple of decades has jumped far faster than the average summer temperature has (as foretold by simple maths when there is a shift in a normal distribution).

    I'd rather have the "Atlantic crap" thank you very much. 30°C+ conditions are fit for nothing except sitting somewhere shady with a fan constantly on and a cold drink. An inconvenience for a day, a miserable endurance trial if it goes on for weeks.
    There’s a happy medium between Atlantic Crap and the Venusian temperatures of modern European summers. Sadly we seem to get it only rarely, though much of this working week fitted the bill. 24-27C with lots of sunshine.
    Part of the art is to adapt your clothes (and timetable, and architecture) to the weather.

    Seville is an incredibly civilised place to live, but it depends on fountains, siestas and shady streets.

    And taking all of August off.
    Very nice, I'm sure, but even if we set aside the practicalities of everyone having a whacking great holiday at the same time (and if this would mean we'd have naff all annual leave remaining to use for the remainder of the year,) demolishing and rebuilding the nation's entire housing stock does strike one as a trifle ambitious.

    Practical measures are needed, and the best I can do is sit here in front of this stupid fan I've got on and wait and wait and wait for the roasting hot air to cool down a bit before I can go to bed (i.e. I've probably got to endure until past midnight.)

    This is one of those occasions when I have particular reason to curse the astronomical property prices in this rotten country: anywhere sensible I could've afforded to trade up from a flat to a small house years ago, and then I'd have at least one of the rooms fitted with a decent aircon unit to deal properly with this problem.
    Most houses in the UK don't have aircon. If you're using a fairly crappy 'fly killer' sort of rotary fan, and can afford a little upgrade, a beefier fan unit/humidifier might be a worthwhile investment.
    I had a portable unit but it weighed a bloody ton, was deeply impractical to empty the water out of and so loud as to make it quite difficult to get to sleep with it grumbling and growling away in the same room. I'd like something wall mounted instead, but even if I could find an installer able to mount it on the exterior of the block about ten metres up in the air I doubt very much that the freeholder would be terribly pleased about my having a great hole drilled in the side of the building and an ugly box bolted to the outside.

    So, I'm stuck with some species of crappy fan, I'm afraid.
    If you happen to have sash windows, there is a new model of U-shaped split air conditioner you just trap in the window. Will be much quieter than a portable unit:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Conditioner-U-Shaped-Flexibility-Extreme-Included/dp/B08B7QR2GV

    Pricey, though.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297

    Things from my youth that I assumed would last forever but which turned out to be impermanent...

    - Woolworths
    - ICI
    - Doorstep milk deliveries
    - Village pubs
    - Newspapers
    - The Warsaw Pact
    - The BBC
    - Western democracy

    I've had to scrub 'inflation' and 'strikes' from this list of the disappeared or disappearing as they've both made a late comeback.

    And our youth?
    All produced phenomena are impermanent. Think on that.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,493
    Foxy said:

    US YouGov poll:

    https://news.yahoo.com/poll-biden-disapproval-hits-new-high-as-more-americans-say-they-would-vote-for-trump-090021657.html

    The survey of 1,541 U.S. adults, which was conducted from June 10-13, found that if another presidential election were held today, more registered voters say they would cast ballots for Donald Trump (44%) than for Biden (42%)

    A full 56% of Americans now disapprove of the president’s performance — the highest share to date — while just 39% approve. Three weeks ago, those numbers were 53% and 42%, respectively.

    On average, Biden’s job approval scores are now a few points worse than Trump’s were at the parallel stage of his presidency.

    Among all Americans, Trump (43%) now has a higher personal favorability rating than Biden (40%) as well. Meanwhile, nearly two-thirds of independents (64%) have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, and just 28% say they would vote for him over Trump.

    How depressing
    You sort of wonder just what Trump would have to do to truly lose popularity there.

    Perhaps we'll find out.
    Not enough americans want to continue living in a democracy.

    California and most of eastern sea board succession within five years of a Trump win imho. Massive violence.

    Wake up America.
    No, when looked at county level, Blue America is an archipelago across a Republican sea, even on the coasts, and the Mountan States. It isn't possible to divide them geographically into separate countries.
    Gilead forms most of the middle. Most of California rebels. Bits of New England. The rest is lost. May the Lord open.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,288
    ydoethur said:

    FT Weekend: Clinton: We are on precipice of losing our democracy.

    Echoes her comments to New Statesman from a visit and lecture in S Shields.



    These are the most dangerous times for the US republic since the civil war I think.

    More so. The Confedaracy never threatened the existence of the USA, or its democratic structures (Lincoln's umm, drastic measures in Maryland aside) just its territorial extent.

    This is existential. If Trump runs again, there is a real chance of civil war and the collapse of the Federal government.

    I'm starting to think @Dura_Ace was right and the best thing is for somebody to shoot the Orange-haired lunatic.
    So the best way to avoid political violence is... political violence?

    I know you're joking, but you get my point. Question is, would getting rid of Trump really make the divisions in American society that sowed the seeds for him coming to power in the first place actually go away? Or would someone else simply take his place?

    America increasingly looks like two different nations with absolutely nothing in common with each other. I'm not sure getting rid of Trump would solve that.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,917

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    Nothing exceptional about today’s temperatures in Britain. 32.7C at Sandton Downham was hot for the time of year - we rarely get 32C+ before the solstice, but it’s certainly not freakish.

    The more exceptional context is across Western Europe. Earliest ever 40C in France yesterday, another 40+ today, coming after the hottest May on record there and widespread exceptional drought, June records falling in Spain, pre-monsoon records in India etc.

    Almost every year these days a summer heat dome forms over Western and Central Europe giving locations that used to get a few days in the 30s every summer regular 35C+ heatwaves. We continue to get all the Atlantic crap but occasionally benefit from the odd waft of the hot stuff. The frequency of 34 and 35C days in England in the last couple of decades has jumped far faster than the average summer temperature has (as foretold by simple maths when there is a shift in a normal distribution).

    I'd rather have the "Atlantic crap" thank you very much. 30°C+ conditions are fit for nothing except sitting somewhere shady with a fan constantly on and a cold drink. An inconvenience for a day, a miserable endurance trial if it goes on for weeks.
    There’s a happy medium between Atlantic Crap and the Venusian temperatures of modern European summers. Sadly we seem to get it only rarely, though much of this working week fitted the bill. 24-27C with lots of sunshine.
    Part of the art is to adapt your clothes (and timetable, and architecture) to the weather.

    Seville is an incredibly civilised place to live, but it depends on fountains, siestas and shady streets.

    And taking all of August off.
    Very nice, I'm sure, but even if we set aside the practicalities of everyone having a whacking great holiday at the same time (and if this would mean we'd have naff all annual leave remaining to use for the remainder of the year,) demolishing and rebuilding the nation's entire housing stock does strike one as a trifle ambitious.

    Practical measures are needed, and the best I can do is sit here in front of this stupid fan I've got on and wait and wait and wait for the roasting hot air to cool down a bit before I can go to bed (i.e. I've probably got to endure until past midnight.)

    This is one of those occasions when I have particular reason to curse the astronomical property prices in this rotten country: anywhere sensible I could've afforded to trade up from a flat to a small house years ago, and then I'd have at least one of the rooms fitted with a decent aircon unit to deal properly with this problem.
    Most houses in the UK don't have aircon. If you're using a fairly crappy 'fly killer' sort of rotary fan, and can afford a little upgrade, a beefier fan unit/humidifier might be a worthwhile investment.
    AirCon is the positive feedback system in global warming. As tropical counties get richer and hotter, more people have it, and heat their neighbours with it, in a sort of tragedy of the Commons.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/29/the-air-conditioning-trap-how-cold-air-is-heating-the-world

    Much better is the traditional style of Spanish courtyards or Marrakech houses, or the large shaded Verandas of Australia and the Deep South.

    Cities of the World Where You Don’t Need AC or Heat:

    Antananarivo, Madagascar
    Bogotá, Colombia
    Caracas, Venezuela
    Durban, South Africa
    Guatemala City, Guatemala
    Lima, Peru
    Mexico City, Mexico
    Nairobi, Kenya
    Port Elizabeth, South Africa
    Quito, Ecuador
    San Diego, California
    São Paulo, Brazil
    Sydney, Australia

    https://mnolangray.medium.com/cities-of-the-world-where-you-dont-need-ac-or-heat-mapped-2a3d6e018970
    Both Lima and Sydney - if you don’t have AC in the high summer, you are one of TSEs Dockside Friends….
    Where is Auckland?

    It's in New Zealand. You should really know that.
    In Co. Durham.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,035
    HYUFD said:

    US YouGov poll:

    https://news.yahoo.com/poll-biden-disapproval-hits-new-high-as-more-americans-say-they-would-vote-for-trump-090021657.html

    The survey of 1,541 U.S. adults, which was conducted from June 10-13, found that if another presidential election were held today, more registered voters say they would cast ballots for Donald Trump (44%) than for Biden (42%)

    A full 56% of Americans now disapprove of the president’s performance — the highest share to date — while just 39% approve. Three weeks ago, those numbers were 53% and 42%, respectively.

    On average, Biden’s job approval scores are now a few points worse than Trump’s were at the parallel stage of his presidency.

    Among all Americans, Trump (43%) now has a higher personal favorability rating than Biden (40%) as well. Meanwhile, nearly two-thirds of independents (64%) have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, and just 28% say they would vote for him over Trump.

    The Democrats need a younger, more charismatic candidate like Buttigieg or O'Rourke in 2024 or Trump win win the second term her failed to get in 2020
    I think rcs put it as follows: Biden might step down if the candidate could win, but probably thinks the candidate will be Harris.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,962

    Things from my youth that I assumed would last forever but which turned out to be impermanent...

    - Woolworths
    - ICI
    - Doorstep milk deliveries
    - Village pubs
    - Newspapers
    - The Warsaw Pact
    - The BBC
    - Western democracy

    I've had to scrub 'inflation' and 'strikes' from this list of the disappeared or disappearing as they've both made a late comeback.

    Yes, I'd add the following:

    - park keepers
    - the Conservative Party
    - luncheon vouchers
    - postal orders
    - Video recorders (not really my youth but you know...)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,962
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Guardian front page, Saturday 18 June 2022: Schools, pools and libraries face massive cuts

    I am surprised there are any council pools or libraries left.
    I think there's a statutory requirement to have some sort of public library service. But it's increasingly thin. It's noticeable that our local one has fewer shelves than a decade ago.
    Summat to burn in a harsh winter, mind.
    Libraries are governed by an Act from the mid-60s which basically guaranteed library provision and makes the withdrawal of that provision almost impossible.

    Councils are forced to maintain often run-down library premises - others have used them to house admin staff while smaller libraries are run by local volunteers with a staff librarian simply opening and closing the place.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    dixiedean said:

    Things from my youth that I assumed would last forever but which turned out to be impermanent...

    - Woolworths
    - ICI
    - Doorstep milk deliveries
    - Village pubs
    - Newspapers
    - The Warsaw Pact
    - The BBC
    - Western democracy

    I've had to scrub 'inflation' and 'strikes' from this list of the disappeared or disappearing as they've both made a late comeback.

    And our youth?
    All produced phenomena are impermanent. Think on that.
    Ecclesiasties is my favourite of the Old Testament: KJV:

    2 Vanity of vanities, saith the Preacher, vanity of vanities; all is vanity.

    3 What profit hath a man of all his labour which he taketh under the sun?

    4 One generation passeth away, and another generation cometh: but the earth abideth for ever.

    5 The sun also ariseth, and the sun goeth down, and hasteth to his place where he arose.

    6 The wind goeth toward the south, and turneth about unto the north; it whirleth about continually, and the wind returneth again according to his circuits.

    7 All the rivers run into the sea; yet the sea is not full; unto the place from whence the rivers come, thither they return again.

    8 All things are full of labour; man cannot utter it: the eye is not satisfied with seeing, nor the ear filled with hearing.

    9 The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun.

    10 Is there any thing whereof it may be said, See, this is new? it hath been already of old time, which was before us.

    11 There is no remembrance of former things; neither shall there be any remembrance of things that are to come with those that shall come after.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,035
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Things from my youth that I assumed would last forever but which turned out to be impermanent...

    - Woolworths
    - ICI
    - Doorstep milk deliveries
    - Village pubs
    - Newspapers
    - The Warsaw Pact
    - The BBC
    - Western democracy

    I've had to scrub 'inflation' and 'strikes' from this list of the disappeared or disappearing as they've both made a late comeback.

    And our youth?
    All produced phenomena are impermanent. Think on that.
    Ecclesiasties is my favourite of the Old Testament: KJV:

    2 Vanity of vanities, saith the Preacher, vanity of vanities; all is vanity.

    3 What profit hath a man of all his labour which he taketh under the sun?

    4 One generation passeth away, and another generation cometh: but the earth abideth for ever.

    5 The sun also ariseth, and the sun goeth down, and hasteth to his place where he arose.

    6 The wind goeth toward the south, and turneth about unto the north; it whirleth about continually, and the wind returneth again according to his circuits.

    7 All the rivers run into the sea; yet the sea is not full; unto the place from whence the rivers come, thither they return again.

    8 All things are full of labour; man cannot utter it: the eye is not satisfied with seeing, nor the ear filled with hearing.

    9 The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun.

    10 Is there any thing whereof it may be said, See, this is new? it hath been already of old time, which was before us.

    11 There is no remembrance of former things; neither shall there be any remembrance of things that are to come with those that shall come after.
    The lack of God in Ecclesiastes is a tonic.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,453
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Further gross incompetence in education:

    GCSE and A-levels: Mistakes in AQA papers caused ‘pupil distress’, Ofqual says
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-61844041

    AQA did the same for chemistry - both gcse and A-level - although that isn’t mentioned in the report.

    It would make me wonder what the exams are actually worth, if I didn’t know due to the appalling mistakes OFQUAL made in drawing up the criteria, ignoring all input from both academia and secondary education, they are more or less worthless anyway.

    Personally, I preferred the curriculum of my early years as a junior doctor. The College examiners could put anything in that they thought you ought to know to be a specialist. It was the ultimate in self directed learning as in effect you had to figure out what that included, so you could devise your own curriculum.

    There could be no complaints about not getting advance notice of the topics in those days. Now we espouse self directed learning, but have such circumscribed curriculums that complaints proliferate. There is no more depressing question from a student than "are we going to be examined on this?", because if you answer "no, but it will be very useful to you as a Doctor" they switch off.

    Despite my illustrious career as a Medical Educator, or perhaps because of it, I am rather out of tune with the times. Fortunately I can play the game and fit the role, even though I see the system as fundamentally wrong-headed.
    I would say there's nothing wrong with your eyesight, frankly.

    I'm currently writing a book in all my copious free time on the failings of education. The fact that our education system has become a production line for passing fundamentally ill-conceived exams bulks large in it.

    It will probably be unpublishable but it does me good to vent my rage on something.
    The problem of Education, in your arena and mine is its decline into credentialing, and those credentials being the ticket to progression in society.

    I think the only way to fix it is to get rid of all exams.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,958

    We took more than a million in stock before the shutters came down on the Monday afternoon.

    Still miss Woolies. Brilliant business. Right up until its spectacular collapse.

    That's a metric fuck-tonne of pick'n'mix.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,962

    ydoethur said:

    <
    My mother does.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_1946–47_in_the_United_Kingdom

    There was another very bad winter in 1939-1940 especially in January of that year. The temperature in Ambleside was recorded at -21C. The country nearly ran out of coal, because so much was being burned for gas and heating and transport links were so disrupted. If Hitler had attacked then Britain would have been helpless.

    However, it is not much spoken about as Chamberlain's government for understandable reasons ordered the press not to publish anything. So everyone assumed it was just a bit cold where they were and didn't realise it nearly led to disaster.
    Sure it wasn’t 1940-1? I remember heavy snow in West Wales in Jan. 41.

    I'm pretty sure 39/40 was nationally more severe than 40/41. Back then there were regular cold spells which we would consider noteworthy - there was a sharp cold spell in January 1945. Reading the front pages you get hints of the disruption to transport and things like milk and coal supplies (all understated).

    The frozen ground helped the Soviet advance through Prussia and Poland - plenty of coverage of that. Zhukov's forces were less than 100 miles from Berlin by the end of the month - we hadn't reached the Rhine.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,635

    Things from my youth that I assumed would last forever but which turned out to be impermanent...

    - Woolworths
    - ICI
    - Doorstep milk deliveries
    - Village pubs
    - Newspapers
    - The Warsaw Pact
    - The BBC
    - Western democracy

    I've had to scrub 'inflation' and 'strikes' from this list of the disappeared or disappearing as they've both made a late comeback.

    I was there for the fall of Woolworths. Ran them for Nestle - sold a LOT of chocolate. But the writing was on the wall months before they fell. Read share trading forums, followed up on internet leads about news. Found that they had appointed financial advisers who basically were there to dismember them.

    So by the time the day came, we had already formulated a plan. My understanding is that the end was that their trucks of copies of Take That's The Circus album were turned back en route after the record label's insurers pulled their cover. It collapsed pretty quickly at that point.

    So we got a call from their Commercial Director late on a Friday afternoon*. Unfortunately they couldn't pay due invoices. So we implemented our plan, and at 7am on the Monday morning had trucks outside their DCs to uplift our property. As I had worked with the legal team to ensure legal title clauses were inserted into every email, every invoice for months before.

    The buyer went *mental*. Nice guy. I had worked successfully with him for 2 years. He called and just lost it. A lot of swearing. He can see the books, I can't, they are still making a profit. Etc etc. That was Monday. The following morning he and most of his colleagues got sacked by the administrator. We took more than a million in stock before the shutters came down on the Monday afternoon.

    Still miss Woolies. Brilliant business. Right up until its spectacular collapse.

    *I lovingly dub 3-4pm on a Friday as "The Hour of Death". It is the point in the week where emails and calls that have been put off get done, usually with the intention of going out just as everything shuts down for the weekend
    Take That Woolies!

    Great story RP!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,244
    Andy_JS said:

    🚨Don't tell Brenda from Bristol
    👀Oct 27 snap gen election floated by @BorisJohnson allies

    Why?
    💥'Wedge week' - NIProtocol, Rwanda, rail row - seen as success
    ⚖️Avoids Privileges Cttee, Covid Inquiry, 1922 confidence vote

    #WaughOnPolitics in yr inbox

    inews.co.uk/opinion/tory-p…

    It's on

    On the other hand the new boundaries won't be ready until the second half of next year. I'm pretty sure the Tories don't want to have an election until they're in place.
    I certainly do. Let the poor bastards working at the BCE finish the job already!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,297
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Things from my youth that I assumed would last forever but which turned out to be impermanent...

    - Woolworths
    - ICI
    - Doorstep milk deliveries
    - Village pubs
    - Newspapers
    - The Warsaw Pact
    - The BBC
    - Western democracy

    I've had to scrub 'inflation' and 'strikes' from this list of the disappeared or disappearing as they've both made a late comeback.

    And our youth?
    All produced phenomena are impermanent. Think on that.
    Ecclesiasties is my favourite of the Old Testament: KJV:

    2 Vanity of vanities, saith the Preacher, vanity of vanities; all is vanity.

    3 What profit hath a man of all his labour which he taketh under the sun?

    4 One generation passeth away, and another generation cometh: but the earth abideth for ever.

    5 The sun also ariseth, and the sun goeth down, and hasteth to his place where he arose.

    6 The wind goeth toward the south, and turneth about unto the north; it whirleth about continually, and the wind returneth again according to his circuits.

    7 All the rivers run into the sea; yet the sea is not full; unto the place from whence the rivers come, thither they return again.

    8 All things are full of labour; man cannot utter it: the eye is not satisfied with seeing, nor the ear filled with hearing.

    9 The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun.

    10 Is there any thing whereof it may be said, See, this is new? it hath been already of old time, which was before us.

    11 There is no remembrance of former things; neither shall there be any remembrance of things that are to come with those that shall come after.
    There's some value in brevity. Cf Get Brexit done!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,597

    We took more than a million in stock before the shutters came down on the Monday afternoon.

    Still miss Woolies. Brilliant business. Right up until its spectacular collapse.

    That's a metric fuck-tonne of pick'n'mix.
    I remember Woolies in Romford almost giving away bagfuls of Star Wars figures!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,635
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    Nothing exceptional about today’s temperatures in Britain. 32.7C at Sandton Downham was hot for the time of year - we rarely get 32C+ before the solstice, but it’s certainly not freakish.

    The more exceptional context is across Western Europe. Earliest ever 40C in France yesterday, another 40+ today, coming after the hottest May on record there and widespread exceptional drought, June records falling in Spain, pre-monsoon records in India etc.

    Almost every year these days a summer heat dome forms over Western and Central Europe giving locations that used to get a few days in the 30s every summer regular 35C+ heatwaves. We continue to get all the Atlantic crap but occasionally benefit from the odd waft of the hot stuff. The frequency of 34 and 35C days in England in the last couple of decades has jumped far faster than the average summer temperature has (as foretold by simple maths when there is a shift in a normal distribution).

    I'd rather have the "Atlantic crap" thank you very much. 30°C+ conditions are fit for nothing except sitting somewhere shady with a fan constantly on and a cold drink. An inconvenience for a day, a miserable endurance trial if it goes on for weeks.
    There’s a happy medium between Atlantic Crap and the Venusian temperatures of modern European summers. Sadly we seem to get it only rarely, though much of this working week fitted the bill. 24-27C with lots of sunshine.
    Part of the art is to adapt your clothes (and timetable, and architecture) to the weather.

    Seville is an incredibly civilised place to live, but it depends on fountains, siestas and shady streets.

    And taking all of August off.
    Very nice, I'm sure, but even if we set aside the practicalities of everyone having a whacking great holiday at the same time (and if this would mean we'd have naff all annual leave remaining to use for the remainder of the year,) demolishing and rebuilding the nation's entire housing stock does strike one as a trifle ambitious.

    Practical measures are needed, and the best I can do is sit here in front of this stupid fan I've got on and wait and wait and wait for the roasting hot air to cool down a bit before I can go to bed (i.e. I've probably got to endure until past midnight.)

    This is one of those occasions when I have particular reason to curse the astronomical property prices in this rotten country: anywhere sensible I could've afforded to trade up from a flat to a small house years ago, and then I'd have at least one of the rooms fitted with a decent aircon unit to deal properly with this problem.
    Most houses in the UK don't have aircon. If you're using a fairly crappy 'fly killer' sort of rotary fan, and can afford a little upgrade, a beefier fan unit/humidifier might be a worthwhile investment.
    AirCon is the positive feedback system in global warming. As tropical counties get richer and hotter, more people have it, and heat their neighbours with it, in a sort of tragedy of the Commons.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/29/the-air-conditioning-trap-how-cold-air-is-heating-the-world

    Much better is the traditional style of Spanish courtyards or Marrakech houses, or the large shaded Verandas of Australia and the Deep South.

    Cities of the World Where You Don’t Need AC or Heat:

    Antananarivo, Madagascar
    Bogotá, Colombia
    Caracas, Venezuela
    Durban, South Africa
    Guatemala City, Guatemala
    Lima, Peru
    Mexico City, Mexico
    Nairobi, Kenya
    Port Elizabeth, South Africa
    Quito, Ecuador
    San Diego, California
    São Paulo, Brazil
    Sydney, Australia

    https://mnolangray.medium.com/cities-of-the-world-where-you-dont-need-ac-or-heat-mapped-2a3d6e018970
    Both Lima and Sydney - if you don’t have AC in the high summer, you are one of TSEs Dockside Friends….
    Where is Auckland?

    It's in New Zealand. You should really know that.
    In Co. Durham.
    That's the Bishop, shirley?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,244
    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    fitalass said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Don't know if this has been covered yet:

    "The Prime Minister has offered to launch a major training operation for Ukrainian forces, with the potential to train up to 10,000 soldiers every 120 days."

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-offer-major-training-programme-for-ukrainian-forces-as-prime-minister-hails-their-victorious-determination

    Quite a commitment.

    I like how the 10,000 number has obviously just been plucked out of thin air. I would also bet Johnson's book advance that it's news to the MoD too.
    Reading the MoD press release:

    "Each soldier would spend three weeks on the training course, learning battle winning skills for the front line, as well as basic medical training, cyber-security and counter explosive tactics."

    Though I note that the Ukranian Army has won more battles than our army over the last couple of decades. Indeed when was our army's last major victory?
    I also think that there is an urgent need to now start training the Ukrainians to use a wider range of NATO equipment.
    That doesn't seem to be this brief though, and is also obviously equipment specific so needs to be done by appropriate specialists.
    Despatches from the front from my mate who is still in the job and just got back from Poland meeting Ukr officers.

    Morale is high but casualties are very high.
    Ukr Mil wants more western equipment faster but Ukr Mil also leaves quite a lot of stuff languishing unused in warehouses, train stations, etc due to technical and logistics issues. Javelin and Switchblade in particular.
    The army thinks the air force has gone AWOL. (Every land force in every conflict thinks this)
    No mood to compromise with Russia... yet...
    Ukr Mil will decide when not Zelenskyy.
    Naturally. He's performed his role well, but at the end of the day the military situation is everything.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    ydoethur said:

    FT Weekend: Clinton: We are on precipice of losing our democracy.

    Echoes her comments to New Statesman from a visit and lecture in S Shields.



    These are the most dangerous times for the US republic since the civil war I think.

    More so. The Confedaracy never threatened the existence of the USA, or its democratic structures (Lincoln's umm, drastic measures in Maryland aside) just its territorial extent.

    This is existential. If Trump runs again, there is a real chance of civil war and the collapse of the Federal government.

    I'm starting to think @Dura_Ace was right and the best thing is for somebody to shoot the Orange-haired lunatic.
    Anyone else you want to take out while you are at it @ydoethur ? Maybe DeSantis, he seems a bit Trumpy. What about a few of the SC Justices as well so R v W is kept?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,635
    Anyway, feeling a little more cheerful this evening, despite the imminent collapse of western democracy, because my covid symptoms appear to be easing a tad - I might even get some sleep tonight 🤞

    (Mrs P. however says she is beginning to feel like death-warmed-up so I may have to endure her ire for giving her the blasted thing.)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,962

    Foxy said:


    No, when looked at county level, Blue America is an archipelago across a Republican sea, even on the coasts, and the Mountan States. It isn't possible to divide them geographically into separate countries.

    Gilead forms most of the middle. Most of California rebels. Bits of New England. The rest is lost. May the Lord open.
    A lot of the Democrat counties are geographically small but the number of voters is large. Clark County has only 7% of the land area of Nevada but has nearly 3/4 of the state's population. Republican counties are often large but with very small populations.

    Our constituencies are more equal in population terms but again vary considerably in size. East Ham is very small and compact but I could imagine rural seats covering a much larger area with a similar population.
This discussion has been closed.