politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Ipsos-MORI’s final #IndyRef poll could be the one to wa

Interesting comparisons. The only real divergence is something of a shy Conservative effect.

Says a lot about the media industry that a pollster can be spot on like this and yet get virtually no work out of it.

Wow, just checked, that polling was done 2 weeks out from the election!

I'm backing Survation, they've been showing a pretty consistent 6-8% No lead all the way through and I liked their reasoning in response to Kellner's criticism of their methodology.

Alistair said:

I demand the other pollsters on the chart!

Please.

For the performances of all the pollsters at the 2011 Holyrood elections check out this chart published on PB at the time

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/scotland-election-2011-all-the-polls/

The trouble is it's just one data point, and with a statistical error of some 3% or so to boot. I can't see that that is any reason to trust Ipsos-MORI more than any other pollster, especially since even if they did have a methodological advantage in polling for Holyrood 2011, that doesn't necessarily mean their methodology is advantageous for the very different characteristics of IndyRef 2014.

If powers are devolved to the Scottish Parliament then Scottish MPs in the House of Commons should not vote on those matters at all. That's what I want to see. I don't want another Parliament or some cock-eyed regional assembly. To the extent that Scotland governs itself, then its Parliamentary representatives in Westminster cannot also expect to govern the rest of us as well. They can vote on Union-wide matters but on devolved matters, Scottish MPs in Westminster stay silent.

Or they can be independent.

Cameron, Clegg and Milliband are seriously annoying me with all this Vow nonsense. It's either a lie - as MalcolmG puts it - or a FUBAR in the making.

Here's the IPSOS-Mori polling record:

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/should-scotland-be-an-independent-country-1?groups=null&companies=["244f004f-8b03-459a-bc29-a1c0011d739a"]#table

Odds on yes coming in slowly but surely, down to 4.3.

AndyJS said:

Shetland News comes out in favour of YES, which is a bit discombobulating because I had it down as the highest No vote in my prediction:

www.shetnews.co.uk/features/scottish-independence-debate/9293-shetland-news-says-yes-to-independence

How did you get your predictions by the way Andy?

The important question is:-

If Scotland votes No and more powers flow to them, will England be done up like a kipper?

*gets coat*

Cyclefree said:

Cameron, Clegg and Milliband are seriously annoying me with all this Vow nonsense. It's either a lie - as MalcolmG puts it - or a FUBAR in the making.

That's captured my view precisely. I'm sure Farage sparked up a Montecristo Double Edmundo the moment he saw it.

Swiss_Bob said:

Odds on yes coming in slowly but surely, down to 4.3.

Just another thirty grand to shift for it to move further. I was hoping they were going to come down to 4 before I laid off but I don't see that happening before the final set of polls come out now.

Alistair said:

Swiss_Bob said:

Odds on yes coming in slowly but surely, down to 4.3.

Just another thirty grand to shift for it to move further. I was hoping they were going to come down to 4 before I laid off but I don't see that happening before the final set of polls come out now.

4.2 now, that was quick!

Lennon said:

AndyJS said:

Shetland News comes out in favour of YES, which is a bit discombobulating because I had it down as the highest No vote in my prediction:

www.shetnews.co.uk/features/scottish-independence-debate/9293-shetland-news-says-yes-to-independence

How did you get your predictions by the way Andy?

The editorial looks to base it's view on the efforts of local LibDem MP's.

Socrates said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Cameron hints at English votes for English laws:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29219162

"Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both distanced themselves from the idea of an English Parliament, using the debate instead to push for "devolution" of the English regions, with tax and spending powers handed to beefed-up city regions."

.....

[MODERATED] is what I think of that.

They believe in devolution, but only to left-wing parts of the country. What a ####ing joke.

It's unbelievably transparent. Insultingly, laughably so.

Nice of the LibDems to buff up their [anti]democratic credentials again, though. Clearly the thought of polling in double-figures again brought them out in hives.

AndyJS said:

Shetland News comes out in favour of YES, which is a bit discombobulating because I had it down as the highest No vote in my prediction:

www.shetnews.co.uk/features/scottish-independence-debate/9293-shetland-news-says-yes-to-independence

Yes, but it seems just 3 people who 'run' the paper made that decision: an Englishman, a Scotsman and a German. It seems to start from a rant about Thatcher, privatisation and oil.

I wouldn't take it too seriously.

Lennon said:

AndyJS said:

Shetland News comes out in favour of YES, which is a bit discombobulating because I had it down as the highest No vote in my prediction:

www.shetnews.co.uk/features/scottish-independence-debate/9293-shetland-news-says-yes-to-independence

How did you get your predictions by the way Andy?

My starting point was the 1997 referendum results, and then I factored in various other indicators, mainly based on demographics and Westminster/Holyrood voting trends. It's more anecdotal than scientific, I have to admit.

I'm reasonably confident about the mainland council predictions, less so for Orkney, Shetland and Western Isles which might behave rather idiosyncraticly.

Ok, well, the 25 grand is surely not going to disappear that fast?

CarlottaVance said:

Gordon Brown on Salmond: Against a range of experts all Salmond can call on is Kim Jong Il and Rupert Murdoch,

Kim Jong Il? Using a medium, I presume...

Socrates said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Cameron hints at English votes for English laws:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29219162

"Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both distanced themselves from the idea of an English Parliament, using the debate instead to push for "devolution" of the English regions, with tax and spending powers handed to beefed-up city regions."

.....

[MODERATED] is what I think of that.

They believe in devolution, but only to left-wing parts of the country. What a ####ing joke.

England is England. It is a unitary demos. An entity. A country. Not an amalgam of 'regions'. If lefties don't like that because they themselves unleashed the devolution monster - well cry me a river.

Tissue_Price said:

Beverley_C said:

Off topic:

I found this tucked away quietly in the corner of the BBC News website

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29220535

"South Yorkshire's Police and Crime Commissioner Shaun Wright has resigned over the Rotherham child abuse scandal.

Mr Wright faced repeated calls to step down in the wake of a report which found at least 1,400 children were abused in the town from 1997 to 2013."

What price the first UKIP PCC in the by-election? Somehow I suspect turnout may be better than in the West Midlands.

Ukip are 8/1 in a by election In a constituency that has faced similar challenges

FF42 said:

John_N said:

FF42 said:

Agreed not everyone in EWNI, but Scottish born UK residents , who would automtically qualify for Scottish citizenship, should have been given the vote. It would be one electorate, not a split one.

It's unlikely that all UK residents born in Scotland would qualify for Scottish citizenship. (They certainly don't all qualify for UK citizenship now.) But even if that were true, why choose the electorate on the basis of what it would be if Yes were to win? There was no serious alternative to having the electorate the same as it is for a SGE.

Because they would be affected by the result. It is a different situation from an election for a parliament covering a territory. As Carynx points out, it would require legislation but David Cameron could easily have done it,if he had been more on the ball. And indeed he should have done so. I know many expat Scots who are outraged at not having a say. They are mostly NO voters, but it would have been the right thing to have done.

As a matter of interest, previous referenda also surely affected the citizenship of UK expats, if only in terms of EU membership - and there was at least one in Wales, IIRC, for the Assembly. But all were confined to UK residents, I assume, too?

CarlottaVance said:

Gordon Brown on Salmond: Against a range of experts all Salmond can call on is Kim Jong Il and Rupert Murdoch,

That from a man reviled the world over as a loser and Cameron is stupid enough to be taking orders from him, you could not make it up.

Patrick said:

Socrates said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Cameron hints at English votes for English laws:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29219162

"Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both distanced themselves from the idea of an English Parliament, using the debate instead to push for "devolution" of the English regions, with tax and spending powers handed to beefed-up city regions."

.....

[MODERATED] is what I think of that.

They believe in devolution, but only to left-wing parts of the country. What a ####ing joke.

England is England. It is a unitary demos. An entity. A country. Not an amalgam of 'regions'. If lefties don't like that because they themselves unleashed the devolution monster - well cry me a river.

Patrick , LOL and Cameron is down to taking orders from the Great Clunking Loser. Leading Cameron and Clegg by the nose.

MikeSmithson said:

Carnyx said:

DanSmith said:

Says a lot about the media industry that a pollster can be spot on like this and yet get virtually no work out of it.

Wonder why the media didn't want to use Ipsos-MORI?

However, I have a question for OGH, please. You omit the list vote. How did they do with it? Or is that impossible to poll reasonably?

Unfortunately the media is reluctant to pay out for phone polls. The preference is for cheapie online ones.

On the list vote the pollsters, apart from Ipsos-MORI, didn't do great. Thus the final gap between SNP and LAB was 17.7%. YouGov final poll had it at 3%.

Thanks!

malcolmg said:

Patrick said:

Socrates said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Cameron hints at English votes for English laws:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29219162

"Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both distanced themselves from the idea of an English Parliament, using the debate instead to push for "devolution" of the English regions, with tax and spending powers handed to beefed-up city regions."

.....

[MODERATED] is what I think of that.

They believe in devolution, but only to left-wing parts of the country. What a ####ing joke.

England is England. It is a unitary demos. An entity. A country. Not an amalgam of 'regions'. If lefties don't like that because they themselves unleashed the devolution monster - well cry me a river.

Patrick , LOL and Cameron is down to taking orders from the Great Clunking Loser. Leading Cameron and Clegg by the nose.

Bookies starting to pay out on a NO vote already Malcolm...Wonder why.?

We're approaching dodo shoot levels of self-interest.

I'm looking forward to labour going to the country with a policy of denying the English what they are only too happy to give the Scots....

AndyJS said:

Lennon said:

AndyJS said:

Shetland News comes out in favour of YES, which is a bit discombobulating because I had it down as the highest No vote in my prediction:

www.shetnews.co.uk/features/scottish-independence-debate/9293-shetland-news-says-yes-to-independence

How did you get your predictions by the way Andy?

My starting point was the 1997 referendum results, and then I factored in various other indicators, mainly based on demographics and Westminster/Holyrood voting trends. It's more anecdotal than scientific, I have to admit.

I'm reasonably confident about the mainland council predictions, less so for Orkney, Shetland and Western Isles which might behave rather idiosyncraticly.

OK, thanks - I was looking at the 1997 Referendum results, and trying to work out how you had got your Shetland number from that - if you are also taking into account the low SNP vote / Infinite Lib Dem vote, as well as demographics then that makes some degree of sense (although I'm personally not convinced by that logic for the Islands, but they could easily be somewhat idiosyncratic as you say)

timmo said:

malcolmg said:

Patrick said:

Socrates said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Cameron hints at English votes for English laws:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29219162

"Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both distanced themselves from the idea of an English Parliament, using the debate instead to push for "devolution" of the English regions, with tax and spending powers handed to beefed-up city regions."

.....

[MODERATED] is what I think of that.

They believe in devolution, but only to left-wing parts of the country. What a ####ing joke.

England is England. It is a unitary demos. An entity. A country. Not an amalgam of 'regions'. If lefties don't like that because they themselves unleashed the devolution monster - well cry me a river.

Patrick , LOL and Cameron is down to taking orders from the Great Clunking Loser. Leading Cameron and Clegg by the nose.

Bookies starting to pay out on a NO vote already Malcolm...Wonder why.?

Serious if ignorant question, why would any bookie do that?

AndyJS said:

I take it punters aren't buying the supposed data from the leaked Labour canvas returns showing No ahead by 57/43 in Dundee, 64/36 in Glasgow, and 70/30 in Aberdeen:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scotland-independence-vote-we-will-win-says-darling-i-know-that-because-ive-seen-the-returns-9731656.html?origin=internalSearch

As someone said earlier - given the (in)competence shown by Labour canvass returns in the past (cf Bradford West, Recent Scottish By-Election) they are being treating with even more salt than usual.

A bizarre comment in the previous thread from Charles (although I'm not sure whether he actually agrees with the idea, opposes the idea or was merely repeating something which Hopi Sen had written):

"With England being 85% of the UK, an English Parliament would have the ability to abuse its power. Let's say the English Parliament created a zone alongside the Scottish border with 0% corporate tax, funded by higher borrowing spread over the rest of England. They could pretty much devastate the Scottish economy, without Scotland having the ability to respond effectively."

Does Germany have such a zone along the border with Austria ?
Does France have such a zone along the border with Belgium ?
Does Spain have such a zone along the border with Portugal ?
Does the USA have such a zone along the border with Canada ?

etc, etc, etc including

Does the UK have such a zone along the border with the Irish Republic ?

The crap the anti-English bigots are reduced to spouting gets more desperate by the day.

Moderator trigger warning.Ukip showing their true colours,Absolutely vile.

What is vile is the labour championed political correctness, that directly led to the abuse

Think you've sneaked past this scandal mate? think again.

Here is the confirmation from Betfair.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxpxXySIUAA-uky.jpg

isam said:

Carnyx said:

timmo said:

malcolmg said:

Patrick said:

Socrates said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Cameron hints at English votes for English laws:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29219162

"Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both distanced themselves from the idea of an English Parliament, using the debate instead to push for "devolution" of the English regions, with tax and spending powers handed to beefed-up city regions."

.....

[MODERATED] is what I think of that.

They believe in devolution, but only to left-wing parts of the country. What a ####ing joke.

England is England. It is a unitary demos. An entity. A country. Not an amalgam of 'regions'. If lefties don't like that because they themselves unleashed the devolution monster - well cry me a river.

Patrick , LOL and Cameron is down to taking orders from the Great Clunking Loser. Leading Cameron and Clegg by the nose.

Bookies starting to pay out on a NO vote already Malcolm...Wonder why.?

Serious if ignorant question, why would any bookie do that?

Publicity and probable lies about how much they are paying out

Ah. Could it be to do with low odds? Not much cost to the publicity, then?

Presumably if it is a Yes they still pay out.

Brown leads the Save The Union - well that's it well and truly FUKed.

Carnyx said:

timmo said:

malcolmg said:

Patrick said:

Socrates said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Cameron hints at English votes for English laws:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29219162

"Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both distanced themselves from the idea of an English Parliament, using the debate instead to push for "devolution" of the English regions, with tax and spending powers handed to beefed-up city regions."

.....

[MODERATED] is what I think of that.

They believe in devolution, but only to left-wing parts of the country. What a ####ing joke.

England is England. It is a unitary demos. An entity. A country. Not an amalgam of 'regions'. If lefties don't like that because they themselves unleashed the devolution monster - well cry me a river.

Patrick , LOL and Cameron is down to taking orders from the Great Clunking Loser. Leading Cameron and Clegg by the nose.

Bookies starting to pay out on a NO vote already Malcolm...Wonder why.?

Serious if ignorant question, why would any bookie do that?

Carnyx, Paddy Power does it often to get free publicity, cheaper than buying adverts.

TGOHF said:

It sounds like existing "sportsbook" bets will be paid out.

Paddy Power do this a lot - cheap publicity.

Flash, we actually agree

timmo said:

Here is the confirmation from Betfair.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxpxXySIUAA-uky.jpg

Ergh? So if I had 'No' I get paid today and then can put the winnings on 'Yes' and get paid again on Friday? This seems bonkers to me.

TGOHF said:

It sounds like existing "sportsbook" bets will be paid out.

Paddy Power do this a lot - cheap publicity.

They have probably done it to rub the noses of Paddy Power in the dirt...PP are normally first with this type of thing.
I remember when PP paid out on Man Utd a few seasons back and got caned when Man City won with the last kick of the season..

@Easterross

"They should be out on the streets if they seriously want to save the union."

Maybe they don't seriously want to save the Union. I remember a post from you on here several years ago in which you said that the Union would go when the English had had enough of it and told the Scots to sod off. Maybe what you are complaining about is just a manifestation of that sentiment. "We will go through the motions, people, and hope to buggery they vote Yes".

I have been struck by the number of moderate English-domiciled posters on here who have expressed a hope for a Yes vote. We are of course a small and self-selecting community yet I would not be surprised if the feelings expressed here are not those more widely held in England. Cameron, with his silly "Vow" and "Home Rule Bill" may be misreading the state of play in England very badly.

What about a prediction thread for indy ref.

My pred would be.

YES - 44.5%, NO 55.5%

Pong said:

Are @malcolmg / @stuartdickson or any other nationalists about? I'd love to get your perspective on which council area will have the highest yes vote %. We've now got 4 bookies who have priced this up;

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/area-with-highest-pp-yes-vote

Personally, I'm far from convinced that Dundee will be as *yes* as the media portray. I just don't think the odds should be as low as they are..

Anyway, last night I had a quick go at this, trying to identify the value in the odds - I compared the 32 council areas for 1997 referendum (tax powers) %, 2012 Tory vote, 2012 SNP vote and SIMD (deprivation by council area). I also did a crude ajustment for rural/urban - slightly favouing yes for the towns and no for the fields. The guardian map for yes% support, based on polling data is also interesting, but unfortunately not that useful.

The outstanding value bet, IMO is Clackmannanshire, available at 8/1 with William Hill (5/1 elsewhere).

My other long odds punts are;

North Lanarkshire @ 50/1 BFSB
West Dumbartonshire @ 33/1 PP/BFSB
East Ayrshire @ 25/1 WH

Am I missing anything, or are these all decent bets?

I agree that Clackmannanshire is a good bet - as one of the smallest areas by electorate, if there is more consistency than expected across the country it could easily be top just on random variation on a small base. Add that to being near the SNP heartland, with a massive vote in the 1997 referendum and the 8/1 looks like value.

"There are at least five final IndyRef polls due out tomorrow."

Oh goody – and no doubt a spread of results to appeal to each neurosis. #entertaining. ; )

hucks67 said:

What about a prediction thread for indy ref.

My pred would be.

YES - 44.5%, NO 55.5%

Good idea: Mine is

YES: 51% NO: 49%

Pong said:

Are @malcolmg / @stuartdickson or any other nationalists about? I'd love to get your perspective on which council area will have the highest yes vote %. We've now got 4 bookies who have priced this up;

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/area-with-highest-pp-yes-vote

Personally, I'm far from convinced that Dundee will be as *yes* as the media portray. I just don't think the odds should be as low as they are..

Anyway, last night I had a quick go at this, trying to identify the value in the odds - I compared the 32 council areas for 1997 referendum (tax powers) %, 2012 Tory vote, 2012 SNP vote and SIMD (deprivation by council area). I also did a crude ajustment for rural/urban - slightly favouing yes for the towns and no for the fields. The guardian map for yes% support, based on polling data is also interesting, but unfortunately not that useful.

The outstanding value bet, IMO is Clackmannanshire, available at 8/1 with William Hill (5/1 elsewhere).

My other long odds punts are;

North Lanarkshire @ 50/1 BFSB
West Dumbartonshire @ 33/1 PP/BFSB
East Ayrshire @ 25/1 WH

Am I missing anything, or are these all decent bets?

http://www.ueapolitics.org/2014/09/15/cut-keep-guide-indyref-night/

The table in here would be useful I think.

taffys said:

We're approaching dodo shoot levels of self-interest.

I'm looking forward to labour going to the country with a policy of denying the English what they are only too happy to give the Scots....

This is getting very silly really. The Establishment has panicked at the thought of the Scots floating off with the Salmond Pied Piper act (even if he does lead them over a cliff) , and are making it up as they go along. Gordon, risen like the political undead, is wandering the Caledonian Central Belt with his shopping list to tick off, the Lib Dems want anything that slices the country up into small enough bits so they can polka dot the odd area with yellow whilst being in a blue or red sea elsewhere, and Cameron who has been tactically inept and has been caught playing with referendum matches near Labour's devolution bonfire clearly hasn't given much thought to what on earth to do about England, he just wants to get to Friday lunchtime in one piece. Then up pops Peter Hain jabbering on about the break up of the UK (well I didn't hear much talk of that from the member for Neath when Wales' referendum was won by all of 1% in 1999 did I Peter?)

It really is disappointing that we are being led like this all round. Oddly a Yes resolves much of this constitutionally whilst opening up a Pandora's box of other nasties. A No puts the lid on many things (at present) but might lead us to cobbling together far reaching change at a gallop all in time for Christmas. Gawd help us.

rottenborough said:

hucks67 said:

What about a prediction thread for indy ref.

My pred would be.

YES - 44.5%, NO 55.5%

Good idea: Mine is

YES: 51% NO: 49%

It could be much bigger but conservative estimate YES: 54% NO: 46%