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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Ipsos-MORI’s final #IndyRef poll could be the one to wa

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  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    malcolmg said:

    the same old tat week after week.

    Unlike the SNP who come up with new lies tat week after week.....seen the Channel 4 demolition FactCheck on the SNP's NHS lies claims?

    I rest my case , head tat merchant cannot resist
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pong said:

    AndyJS said:

    My turnout prediction is 83% and I'd be very surprised if it's more than 1% higher or lower than that.

    That's astonshing Andy - what makes you so sure?

    80-85% is available at 2/1, as I'm sure you're aware :)
    Do you expect it to be in the 75-80% range?
  • Malcolm sounding rattled. A bit like Rod Steiger's Napoleon. "The Prussians are too late! Too late I tell you!"
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326

    JohnO said:

    So what are the Conservatives saying it all seems a little quiet atm ?

    I wouldn't say it was 'quiet' exactly! But it is certainly true that the focus hasn't been on the economy and domestic politics, apart from Scotland, over recent weeks.

    Let's get IndyRef out of the way, and then we can all enjoy the conferences, starting with Labour. That should be fun!
    They haven't said anything meaningful for the last year or so, bar a bit of posturing. I suspect we are in GE purdah much like Labour.
    Mr Brooke, I strongly suspect that the Conservatives are in for an absolute pounding next May. Mr. Eagles' Dockside Hooker will have a day off in comparison. Nothing really to do with a better offering from Labour, in fact I am sure Miliband will make an even bigger dogs breakfast of the whole thing, but because Cameron is just such a gutless blancmange so few people will vote for him.
    Goodness, you realize you are sounding more like the archetypal angry kipper every time you post, foam flecking the moustache and dribbling onto the blue blazer. You'll be attacking the Brute with last week's Telegraph pensioner supplement by the end of the week at this rate.
    Thanks Mr, O, the first genuine belly laugh of the day. Blessings unto you. I have the moustache, it may from time to time be foam flecked but not normally while I am posting, and I never wear a jacket indoors at home.

    The Brute, alas, is no longer with us he passed over at 08:29 on Friday 5th September. I am looking forward to meeting him on the other side when I may or may not have a copy of the Telegraph's Pensioner Supplement with me.
    I am very sorry to hear that, Mr Llama.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    One of my friends is a FX trader at Deutsche Bank. Not saying he has any special knowledge, but he's been following all this very closely. He's very certain it will be a NO.

    Do you know whether he thinks a Yes vote, were it to happen, would have a big impact on the markets?
    I'd be shorting Mars and Mazola stock right now if I thought it was going to be a Yes.

    With no English money, how will the Scotch afford their staple meal?

    Mazola? Is that an exotic English delicacy?
    http://www.mazola.com
    Thank you. Never deep-fried at home in my life! I'll stick to olive oil from the local food co-op!

    time to get a bit more adventurous in the kitchen Mr C.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    My turnout prediction is 83% and I'd be very surprised if it's more than 1% higher or lower than that.

    That's rather higher than you started out with, Andy, isn't it?

    Yes my original prediction, from April, put it at 80%. But recent reports would seem to indicate it being a bit higher.
    I am not so sure Andy , think your 80% is more realistic personally despite all the hype, be a surprise if it is over that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    malcolmg said:

    The chickens on here are nothing if not anally retentive, they regurgitate the same old tat week after week, just like BT , no hopers lacking intelligence , flair and vision. Dull , washed out losers.

    It would be a frank absurdity to suggest even obliquely that both sides do not equally regurgitate the same old tat week after week, as well as people pointing out that fact. Honestly, by this point anyone even moderately engaged could fill in all sides of the conversation themselves without need of other parties.

    On Heywood, I assume there must be at the least a possibility the LDs will fall behind the Greens again, that seems to be the way of it these days.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    Malcolm sounding rattled. A bit like Rod Steiger's Napoleon. "The Prussians are too late! Too late I tell you!"

    Only chickens like you are rattled pg Chimp
  • isam said:

    OK, I'm stuck - for the sake of my ELBOW!

    I'm trying to work out how ICM's Guardian poll came up with final published figures of Lab 35/Con 33/UKIP 9/LD 10 (table 4), when its unadjusted figures (table 3) are 37/33/10/9.

    "In a further step, ICM add 50% of those who refuse to answer the vote intention
    question or say they don’t know to the party they voted for in 2010."

    I don't get how that translates into the final figures - I've even emailed Martin Boon, but he wasn't too forthcoming, repeating what he said in the intro to the PDF tables!

    Tables here:
    http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_guardian_sept_poll.pdf

    Sunil. You've only called it ELBOW to set yourself up with lines about not knowing Jack W's ARSE from your ELBOW. Haven't you?
    No flies on you eh bond?
    Isn't the housefly the Scottish national bird?



  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031
    Now I have the first, I can safely proclaim:

    New thread
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Lennon said:

    SoPN Hewyood and Middleton

    http://www.rochdale.gov.uk/pdf/2014-09-16-SPNNOP.pdf

    UKIP candidate gives an address from Eddisbury
    Con from Bury North
    Green from Heywood and Middleton
    Labour from Rossendale and Darwen
    LD from Heywood and Middleton

    Is that one of the shortest recent nomination lists for a by-election? Normally you get all sorts of odds and sods taking the option of standing (Independents, OMRLP, etc.)
    Ryedale 1986 was the last time there were 3 candidates. Will have to check for 4 or 5...
    The last 5-handers were Leicester South; and Inverclyde in 2011.

    Mid-Ulster 2013 was a 4 hander. The last mainland 4-hander must be pre-1986...
    Stafford, 3rd May 1984, when Bill Cash was first elected:

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stafford_by-election,_1984
  • malcolmg said:

    @MalcolmG

    "Another whinging jessie"

    Very brave you are Malcolm, from behind your computer.

    Very indeed still does not change the fact that you are a whinging jessie, I have never criticised you in the past, yet you choose to single me out and insult me so what do you expect. You want me to send you flowers. Get a life.
    It was hardly an insult, Malcolm.

    Bit touchy tonite?


  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    JohnO said:

    So what are the Conservatives saying it all seems a little quiet atm ?

    I wouldn't say it was 'quiet' exactly! But it is certainly true that the focus hasn't been on the economy and domestic politics, apart from Scotland, over recent weeks.

    Let's get IndyRef out of the way, and then we can all enjoy the conferences, starting with Labour. That should be fun!
    They haven't said anything meaningful for the last year or so, bar a bit of posturing. I suspect we are in GE purdah much like Labour.
    Mr Brooke, I strongly suspect that the Conservatives are in for an absolute pounding next May. Mr. Eagles' Dockside Hooker will have a day off in comparison. Nothing really to do with a better offering from Labour, in fact I am sure Miliband will make an even bigger dogs breakfast of the whole thing, but because Cameron is just such a gutless blancmange so few people will vote for him.
    Goodness, you realize you are sounding more like the archetypal angry kipper every time you post, foam flecking the moustache and dribbling onto the blue blazer. You'll be attacking the Brute with last week's Telegraph pensioner supplement by the end of the week at this rate.
    Thanks Mr, O, the first genuine belly laugh of the day. Blessings unto you. I have the moustache, it may from time to time be foam flecked but not normally while I am posting, and I never wear a jacket indoors at home.

    The Brute, alas, is no longer with us he passed over at 08:29 on Friday 5th September. I am looking forward to meeting him on the other side when I may or may not have a copy of the Telegraph's Pensioner Supplement with me.
    will you be getting a replacement or just sticking with that big pussy malcolmG ?

  • Paddy Power's turnout market point to a Yes victory:

    More than 82% 4/7
    82% or under 5/4
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    The chickens on here are nothing if not anally retentive, they regurgitate the same old tat week after week, just like BT , no hopers lacking intelligence , flair and vision. Dull , washed out losers.

    It would be a frank absurdity to suggest even obliquely that both sides do not equally regurgitate the same old tat week after week, as well as people pointing out that fact. Honestly, by this point anyone even moderately engaged could fill in all sides of the conversation themselves without need of other parties.

    On Heywood, I assume there must be at the least a possibility the LDs will fall behind the Greens again, that seems to be the way of it these days.
    kle4, however there are some who are manic about it.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    @Richard_Nabavi

    "If they want to know what the Conservatives think of them (and, more importantly, intend to do to improve things for them), they should listen to the Conservatives"

    Ok. I am all ears listening out on all channels. Feint mentions of giving more money and powers to Scotland but paid for by English taxpayers. Still listening but can't hear anything other than static.

    How about raising the tax threshold to take the low paid out of tax? Admittedly a LD policy, but one the Conservatives have adopted. Restoring economic growth to the highest rate of our competitors while keeping inflation down and 1.5 million jobs in the private sector. Then there are free schools, local input into health care commissioning, freezing petrol tax etc etc.

    After all what have the Romans ever done for us?
    Doc, the Economic growth figures are the most meaningless of many that the Government use as props. How much more wealthy is your average patient with all this growf?

    Anyway, the question I put forward was not "What have the Romans done for us?" but "Why should we vote for them again?"
    We have collectively been living beyond our means for years. Growth has benefited my patch of middle England, mostly via increased employment.

    Individual incomes will lag until the deficit has shrunk, until then the earnings go to repay the moneylenders. Short of a Salmond like default there is no way around that.

    I am LD, not Tory, but think that the coalition has done an excellent job in difficult circumstances. Sadly my party and the Tories are likely to suffer next year, but will in time be vindicated as one of the best governments of recent times.

    In the meantime: no good deed goes unpunished!
  • Paddy Power's turnout market point to a Yes victory:

    More than 82% 4/7
    82% or under 5/4


    Can you explain your logic, Stuart? Presumably you think the higher the turnout the greater the likelihood of Yes?
  • malcolmg said:

    Malcolm sounding rattled. A bit like Rod Steiger's Napoleon. "The Prussians are too late! Too late I tell you!"

    Only chickens like you are rattled pg Chimp
    When did you realise you'd lost, Malcolm? Inquiring minds want to know.

    You still wake up sometimes, don't you? You wake up in the dark and hear the screaming of the lambs. And you think if Scawtland voots Aye, you could make them stop, don't you Malcolm? You think if Scotland secedes, you won't wake up in the dark ever again to that awful screaming of the lambs.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    malcolmg said:

    @MalcolmG

    "Another whinging jessie"

    Very brave you are Malcolm, from behind your computer.

    Very indeed still does not change the fact that you are a whinging jessie, I have never criticised you in the past, yet you choose to single me out and insult me so what do you expect. You want me to send you flowers. Get a life.
    It was hardly an insult, Malcolm.

    Bit touchy tonite?


    Peter , If not then accepted , if you read on here you will see I get it constantly day in and day out so no surprise I am a bit sharp. However peace between us and resume previous good relationship. I only reciprocate what I receive.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336

    Carnyx said:



    [snip]


    As a poster on JK's site said, has anyone ever come across a shy vote for the side clearly ahead in polls which has the backing of all the media?

    Not all the media. And not the backing of the incumbent Government, which has carefully arranged date, question, age qualification, and a series of national events (Bannockburn/Year of Homecoming) in its favour. Hardly the plucky struggle some are making it out to be.
    May I duck in and suggest that Bannockburn was irrelevant?
    Mention of Bannockburn, Braveheart, Buckfast, deep fried Mars bars & a seceding Shetland are several of the unmistakable stigmata of the Indy idiot.
    Though this is rather an improvement on Steve Bell's often rather flat indyref cartoons ...

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cartoon/2014/sep/15/steve-bell-if-scotland-independence-battle

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cartoon/2014/sep/16/steve-bell-if-alex-salmond-freedom

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    My thanks to those who have expressed condolences on the loss of The Brute, an active, if unconscious, campaigner on these broads since 2007.

    @MalcolmG
    My heart goes out to you daughter. To lose one beloved Moggie is bad enough, to lose one when you already know another is on the path must be awful.
  • Council area with highest Yes vote:

    Dundee 4/6 (Hills, Lad)
    Clackmannanshire 5/1 (various)
    Glasgow 8/1 (Hills, Lad)
    Na h-Eileanan Siar 8/1 (Hills, Lad)
    Angus 12/1 (Betfair, Lad)
    Moray 16/1 (various)
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited September 2014
    If you think the longer term outcome of this Indy Referendum debate and the result is solely a problem for Cameron, then you really haven't been following this whole political event very closely. There are implications for all parties right across the UK, including the Labour party. It was Gordon Brown who pressed the panic button in this campaign.

    taffys said:

    Who in their right mind would invest in a country of such hooligans?

    Err.....David Cameron. With ever more English taxpayer money......

    Our leaders have taken leave of their senses. On Friday the tory party is going to explode.

    Cameron has now got himself into a position in which he can only come out of the referendum badly. If it's a yes he's toast. If it's a narrow no he will probably survive but he will be blamed for the bitterness and resentment that will follow a close result. If it's a substantial majority for no then many in his own party will attack him for making unnecessary concessions and relying on Gordon Brown and Labour to deliver for him. Cameron is now greatly weakened, and may not survive even if there is a no vote.
    No wonder you cannot be arsed, because there simple isn't the evidence to back up your claims! There hasn't been a day goes by in the last weeks of this campaign where there hasn't been clear visual or verbal evidence of the bullying and intimidation of politicians from the Better Together campaign splashed across the internet and on our TV screens. Check any local newspaper, and you will find the evidendence of vandalism of No Thanks signs across Scotland, and now we have the very real and clear intimidation of the media cover the campaign.

    Scott_P said:


    As a poster on JK's site said, has anyone ever come across a shy vote for the side clearly ahead in polls which has the backing of all the media?

    How often has the opposing side been rampaging through the streets intimidating people, destroying campaign advertising, marching on broadcasters and threatening journalists?

    How might that impact the shy factor do you think?
    Can't really be arsed going through the assaults, death threats, abuse & vandalism committed by the Noers. Just you keep regurgitating tweets to the echo chamber like a good wee Nawbag.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046

    The trouble is it's just one data point, and with a statistical error of some 3% or so to boot. I can't see that that is any reason to trust Ipsos-MORI more than any other pollster, especially since even if they did have a methodological advantage in polling for Holyrood 2011, that doesn't necessarily mean their methodology is advantageous for the very different characteristics of IndyRef 2014.

    Hedge fund managers flipping coins....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046

    stodge said:

    Those talking about devolution In England should be aware that a re-ordering of structures is already happening from the bottom up as Councils collaborate across services.

    I won't name the County Councilc concerned but here's an example using Councils A, B and C...

    All very interesting stodge, but why not name the County Councils involved?
    AAUI it happens in SW London. Inner SW London (not too inner).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046

    The trouble is it's just one data point, and with a statistical error of some 3% or so to boot. I can't see that that is any reason to trust Ipsos-MORI more than any other pollster, especially since even if they did have a methodological advantage in polling for Holyrood 2011, that doesn't necessarily mean their methodology is advantageous for the very different characteristics of IndyRef 2014.

    Hedge fund managers flipping coins....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046

    stodge said:

    Those talking about devolution In England should be aware that a re-ordering of structures is already happening from the bottom up as Councils collaborate across services.

    I won't name the County Councilc concerned but here's an example using Councils A, B and C...

    All very interesting stodge, but why not name the County Councils involved?
    AAUI it happens in SW London. Inner SW London (not too inner).
This discussion has been closed.