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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Ipsos-MORI’s final #IndyRef poll could be the one to wa

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited September 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Ipsos-MORI’s final #IndyRef poll could be the one to watch out for tomorrow night

There are at least five final IndyRef polls due out tomorrow. The online firms that use polling panels – YouGov, Panelbase and Opinium, Survation which does online and phone, and an Ipsos-MORI phone poll.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Interesting comparisons. The only real divergence is something of a shy Conservative effect.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I demand the other pollsters on the chart!

    Please.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Says a lot about the media industry that a pollster can be spot on like this and yet get virtually no work out of it.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    FPT

    SouthamObserver said:
    » show previous quotes
    Absolutely - this all comes down to whether you believe the Union is worth preserving. If you do, then you also have to accept that as by far the biggest party England is always going to be a net giver, but that we maybe get back an awful lot in other ways. As a redistributionist I have no problem with that, but I can see why those on the right would.

    I'm amenable to being persuaded on the matter; it is plausible enough, as is the opposite - that the regions gain disproportionately more. Over a long enough time frame I doubt the subsidy would also be seen to flow the same way.

    However, what I don't appreciate is the default assumption that England should expect always to be mulcted to appease one of the regions, and that if Scotland goes, we should privilege other regions in the same way.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Wow, just checked, that polling was done 2 weeks out from the election!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336
    DanSmith said:

    Says a lot about the media industry that a pollster can be spot on like this and yet get virtually no work out of it.

    Wonder why the media didn't want to use Ipsos-MORI?

    However, I have a question for OGH, please. You omit the list vote. How did they do with it? Or is that impossible to poll reasonably?

  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    I'm backing Survation, they've been showing a pretty consistent 6-8% No lead all the way through and I liked their reasoning in response to Kellner's criticism of their methodology.
  • FF42FF42 Posts: 114
    How does Ipsos-MORI collect the data?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Alistair said:

    I demand the other pollsters on the chart!

    Please.

    For the performances of all the pollsters at the 2011 Holyrood elections check out this chart published on PB at the time

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/scotland-election-2011-all-the-polls/


  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    FPT:
    Socrates said:

    "Imagine if an English parliament decide to cut income tax and corporation tax below that paid in Scotland, while temporarily increasing public spending above levels in Scotland. It would decimate the Scottish economy,"

    It would also decimate the English economy as we plunged into fiscal crisis. Stupid example.

    S'funny how lower corporation tax in Ireland hasn't destroyed the N.Irish economy. And that tax variations between US states hasn't resulted in collapse and ruin.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited September 2014
    The trouble is it's just one data point, and with a statistical error of some 3% or so to boot. I can't see that that is any reason to trust Ipsos-MORI more than any other pollster, especially since even if they did have a methodological advantage in polling for Holyrood 2011, that doesn't necessarily mean their methodology is advantageous for the very different characteristics of IndyRef 2014.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited September 2014
    Oh Mike please come on let's see the other pollsters for that night? It might be a useful reference point for tomorrow.

    Edit - ok just read the link you posted below :)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    If powers are devolved to the Scottish Parliament then Scottish MPs in the House of Commons should not vote on those matters at all. That's what I want to see. I don't want another Parliament or some cock-eyed regional assembly. To the extent that Scotland governs itself, then its Parliamentary representatives in Westminster cannot also expect to govern the rest of us as well. They can vote on Union-wide matters but on devolved matters, Scottish MPs in Westminster stay silent.

    Or they can be independent.

    Cameron, Clegg and Milliband are seriously annoying me with all this Vow nonsense. It's either a lie - as MalcolmG puts it - or a FUBAR in the making.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Shetland News comes out in favour of YES, which is a bit discombobulating because I had it down as the highest No vote in my prediction:

    www.shetnews.co.uk/features/scottish-independence-debate/9293-shetland-news-says-yes-to-independence
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Here's the IPSOS-Mori polling record:

    http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/should-scotland-be-an-independent-country-1?groups=null&companies=["244f004f-8b03-459a-bc29-a1c0011d739a"]#table
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Cameron hints at English votes for English laws:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29219162

    "Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both distanced themselves from the idea of an English Parliament, using the debate instead to push for "devolution" of the English regions, with tax and spending powers handed to beefed-up city regions."

    .....

    [MODERATED] is what I think of that.
  • Swiss_BobSwiss_Bob Posts: 619
    Odds on yes coming in slowly but surely, down to 4.3.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Carnyx said:

    DanSmith said:

    Says a lot about the media industry that a pollster can be spot on like this and yet get virtually no work out of it.

    Wonder why the media didn't want to use Ipsos-MORI?

    However, I have a question for OGH, please. You omit the list vote. How did they do with it? Or is that impossible to poll reasonably?

    Unfortunately the media is reluctant to pay out for phone polls. The preference is for cheapie online ones.

    On the list vote the pollsters, apart from Ipsos-MORI, didn't do great. Thus the final gap between SNP and LAB was 17.7%. YouGov final poll had it at 3%.



  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    AndyJS said:

    Shetland News comes out in favour of YES, which is a bit discombobulating because I had it down as the highest No vote in my prediction:

    www.shetnews.co.uk/features/scottish-independence-debate/9293-shetland-news-says-yes-to-independence

    How did you get your predictions by the way Andy?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Cameron hints at English votes for English laws:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29219162

    "Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both distanced themselves from the idea of an English Parliament, using the debate instead to push for "devolution" of the English regions, with tax and spending powers handed to beefed-up city regions."

    .....

    [MODERATED] is what I think of that.

    So only to places where they know they'll have a good chance to keep power..

    B****OCKS
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited September 2014
    The important question is:-

    If Scotland votes No and more powers flow to them, will England be done up like a kipper?

    *gets coat*
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Just so, Mr. Slackbladder. They don't give a **** about England or devolution, they just want little fiefdoms.

    Morons. It worked so well in Scotland, didn't it?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Cyclefree said:

    Cameron, Clegg and Milliband are seriously annoying me with all this Vow nonsense. It's either a lie - as MalcolmG puts it - or a FUBAR in the making.

    That's captured my view precisely. I'm sure Farage sparked up a Montecristo Double Edmundo the moment he saw it.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Cameron hints at English votes for English laws:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29219162

    "Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both distanced themselves from the idea of an English Parliament, using the debate instead to push for "devolution" of the English regions, with tax and spending powers handed to beefed-up city regions."

    .....

    [MODERATED] is what I think of that.

    They believe in devolution, but only to left-wing parts of the country. What a ####ing joke.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Swiss_Bob said:

    Odds on yes coming in slowly but surely, down to 4.3.

    Just another thirty grand to shift for it to move further. I was hoping they were going to come down to 4 before I laid off but I don't see that happening before the final set of polls come out now.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Off topic:

    I found this tucked away quietly in the corner of the BBC News website

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29220535

    "South Yorkshire's Police and Crime Commissioner Shaun Wright has resigned over the Rotherham child abuse scandal.

    Mr Wright faced repeated calls to step down in the wake of a report which found at least 1,400 children were abused in the town from 1997 to 2013."
  • Swiss_BobSwiss_Bob Posts: 619
    Alistair said:

    Swiss_Bob said:

    Odds on yes coming in slowly but surely, down to 4.3.

    Just another thirty grand to shift for it to move further. I was hoping they were going to come down to 4 before I laid off but I don't see that happening before the final set of polls come out now.
    4.2 now, that was quick!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Swiss_Bob said:

    Odds on yes coming in slowly but surely, down to 4.3.


    4.2 now...

    Pre poll positioning ?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,701
    Lennon said:

    AndyJS said:

    Shetland News comes out in favour of YES, which is a bit discombobulating because I had it down as the highest No vote in my prediction:

    www.shetnews.co.uk/features/scottish-independence-debate/9293-shetland-news-says-yes-to-independence

    How did you get your predictions by the way Andy?
    The editorial looks to base it's view on the efforts of local LibDem MP's.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    AndyJS said:

    Shetland News comes out in favour of YES, which is a bit discombobulating because I had it down as the highest No vote in my prediction:

    www.shetnews.co.uk/features/scottish-independence-debate/9293-shetland-news-says-yes-to-independence

    Apparently (can't find it online) the Dundee Courier came out for 'No', as did the Herald....I fear more discombobulation awaits!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Socrates said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Cameron hints at English votes for English laws:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29219162

    "Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both distanced themselves from the idea of an English Parliament, using the debate instead to push for "devolution" of the English regions, with tax and spending powers handed to beefed-up city regions."

    .....

    [MODERATED] is what I think of that.

    They believe in devolution, but only to left-wing parts of the country. What a ####ing joke.
    It's unbelievably transparent. Insultingly, laughably so.

    Nice of the LibDems to buff up their [anti]democratic credentials again, though. Clearly the thought of polling in double-figures again brought them out in hives.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Shows what I know, down to 4.2.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,683
    AndyJS said:

    Shetland News comes out in favour of YES, which is a bit discombobulating because I had it down as the highest No vote in my prediction:

    www.shetnews.co.uk/features/scottish-independence-debate/9293-shetland-news-says-yes-to-independence

    Yes, but it seems just 3 people who 'run' the paper made that decision: an Englishman, a Scotsman and a German. It seems to start from a rant about Thatcher, privatisation and oil.

    I wouldn't take it too seriously.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    CarlottaVance said:

    AndyJS said:

    Shetland News comes out in favour of YES, which is a bit discombobulating because I had it down as the highest No vote in my prediction:

    www.shetnews.co.uk/features/scottish-independence-debate/9293-shetland-news-says-yes-to-independence

    Apparently (can't find it online) the Dundee Courier came out for 'No', as did the Herald....I fear more discombobulation awaits!
    The Herald is in backing No because it wants a Unicorn. If anyone is voting no because they think they'll get a Unicorn then they are an idiot - like the people who voted No to AV because they wanted Proportional Representation.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2014
    Lennon said:

    AndyJS said:

    Shetland News comes out in favour of YES, which is a bit discombobulating because I had it down as the highest No vote in my prediction:

    www.shetnews.co.uk/features/scottish-independence-debate/9293-shetland-news-says-yes-to-independence

    How did you get your predictions by the way Andy?
    My starting point was the 1997 referendum results, and then I factored in various other indicators, mainly based on demographics and Westminster/Holyrood voting trends. It's more anecdotal than scientific, I have to admit.

    I'm reasonably confident about the mainland council predictions, less so for Orkney, Shetland and Western Isles which might behave rather idiosyncraticly.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Gordon Brown on Salmond: Against a range of experts all Salmond can call on is Kim Jong Il and Rupert Murdoch,
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Ok, well, the 25 grand is surely not going to disappear that fast?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Beverley_C said:

    Off topic:

    I found this tucked away quietly in the corner of the BBC News website

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29220535

    "South Yorkshire's Police and Crime Commissioner Shaun Wright has resigned over the Rotherham child abuse scandal.

    Mr Wright faced repeated calls to step down in the wake of a report which found at least 1,400 children were abused in the town from 1997 to 2013."

    What price the first UKIP PCC in the by-election? Somehow I suspect turnout may be better than in the West Midlands.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    CarlottaVance said:

    Gordon Brown on Salmond: Against a range of experts all Salmond can call on is Kim Jong Il and Rupert Murdoch,

    Kim Jong Il? Using a medium, I presume...

  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    TGOHF said:

    Swiss_Bob said:

    Odds on yes coming in slowly but surely, down to 4.3.


    4.2 now...

    Pre poll positioning ?
    Should be a good trading market over the next 48 hours..
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Socrates said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Cameron hints at English votes for English laws:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29219162

    "Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both distanced themselves from the idea of an English Parliament, using the debate instead to push for "devolution" of the English regions, with tax and spending powers handed to beefed-up city regions."

    .....

    [MODERATED] is what I think of that.

    They believe in devolution, but only to left-wing parts of the country. What a ####ing joke.
    England is England. It is a unitary demos. An entity. A country. Not an amalgam of 'regions'. If lefties don't like that because they themselves unleashed the devolution monster - well cry me a river.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Alistair said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    AndyJS said:

    Shetland News comes out in favour of YES, which is a bit discombobulating because I had it down as the highest No vote in my prediction:

    www.shetnews.co.uk/features/scottish-independence-debate/9293-shetland-news-says-yes-to-independence

    Apparently (can't find it online) the Dundee Courier came out for 'No', as did the Herald....I fear more discombobulation awaits!
    The Herald is in backing No because it wants a Unicorn.
    I don't think the NO side are the only ones who have been promising automatic EU Membership, currency union, social union Unicorns!

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014
    Anorak said:

    Socrates said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Cameron hints at English votes for English laws:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29219162

    "Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both distanced themselves from the idea of an English Parliament, using the debate instead to push for "devolution" of the English regions, with tax and spending powers handed to beefed-up city regions."

    .....

    [MODERATED] is what I think of that.

    They believe in devolution, but only to left-wing parts of the country. What a ####ing joke.
    It's unbelievably transparent. Insultingly, laughably so.

    Nice of the LibDems to buff up their [anti]democratic credentials again, though. Clearly the thought of polling in double-figures again brought them out in hives.
    What's best for politicians is clearly taking precedent over what's best for England, as far as Labour and the Lib Dems are concerned.

    It's a turkey shoot for Farage.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited September 2014
    TheWatcher said:

    Anorak said:

    Socrates said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Cameron hints at English votes for English laws:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29219162

    "Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both distanced themselves from the idea of an English Parliament, using the debate instead to push for "devolution" of the English regions, with tax and spending powers handed to beefed-up city regions."

    .....

    [MODERATED] is what I think of that.

    They believe in devolution, but only to left-wing parts of the country. What a ####ing joke.
    It's unbelievably transparent. Insultingly, laughably so.

    Nice of the LibDems to buff up their [anti]democratic credentials again, though. Clearly the thought of polling in double-figures again brought them out in hives.
    What's best for politicians is clearly taking precedent over what's best for England.

    It's a turkey shoot for Farage.
    We're approaching dodo shoot levels of self-interest.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Tissue_Price said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Off topic:

    I found this tucked away quietly in the corner of the BBC News website

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29220535

    "South Yorkshire's Police and Crime Commissioner Shaun Wright has resigned over the Rotherham child abuse scandal.

    Mr Wright faced repeated calls to step down in the wake of a report which found at least 1,400 children were abused in the town from 1997 to 2013."

    What price the first UKIP PCC in the by-election? Somehow I suspect turnout may be better than in the West Midlands.
    Ukip are 8/1 in a by election In a constituency that has faced similar challenges
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Off topic: Pakistani airline passengers boot off politician after flight delayed by TWO HOURS waiting for him to turn up. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-29218939
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336
    FF42 said:

    John_N said:

    FF42 said:

    Agreed not everyone in EWNI, but Scottish born UK residents , who would automtically qualify for Scottish citizenship, should have been given the vote. It would be one electorate, not a split one.

    It's unlikely that all UK residents born in Scotland would qualify for Scottish citizenship. (They certainly don't all qualify for UK citizenship now.) But even if that were true, why choose the electorate on the basis of what it would be if Yes were to win? There was no serious alternative to having the electorate the same as it is for a SGE.
    Because they would be affected by the result. It is a different situation from an election for a parliament covering a territory. As Carynx points out, it would require legislation but David Cameron could easily have done it,if he had been more on the ball. And indeed he should have done so. I know many expat Scots who are outraged at not having a say. They are mostly NO voters, but it would have been the right thing to have done.

    As a matter of interest, previous referenda also surely affected the citizenship of UK expats, if only in terms of EU membership - and there was at least one in Wales, IIRC, for the Assembly. But all were confined to UK residents, I assume, too?
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Bloomberg evidently reporting that Betfair sportsbook are paying out on a NO result in the Indyref betting.... got from @World_First
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    CarlottaVance said:

    Gordon Brown on Salmond: Against a range of experts all Salmond can call on is Kim Jong Il and Rupert Murdoch,

    That from a man reviled the world over as a loser and Cameron is stupid enough to be taking orders from him, you could not make it up.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336
    CarlottaVance said:

    AndyJS said:

    Shetland News comes out in favour of YES, which is a bit discombobulating because I had it down as the highest No vote in my prediction:

    www.shetnews.co.uk/features/scottish-independence-debate/9293-shetland-news-says-yes-to-independence

    Apparently (can't find it online) the Dundee Courier came out for 'No', as did the Herald....I fear more discombobulation awaits!
    Daily Herald, to be more precise. The Sunday bit is very much for Yes.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    Patrick said:

    Socrates said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Cameron hints at English votes for English laws:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29219162

    "Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both distanced themselves from the idea of an English Parliament, using the debate instead to push for "devolution" of the English regions, with tax and spending powers handed to beefed-up city regions."

    .....

    [MODERATED] is what I think of that.

    They believe in devolution, but only to left-wing parts of the country. What a ####ing joke.
    England is England. It is a unitary demos. An entity. A country. Not an amalgam of 'regions'. If lefties don't like that because they themselves unleashed the devolution monster - well cry me a river.
    Patrick , LOL and Cameron is down to taking orders from the Great Clunking Loser. Leading Cameron and Clegg by the nose.
  • Swiss_BobSwiss_Bob Posts: 619
    timmo said:

    TGOHF said:

    Swiss_Bob said:

    Odds on yes coming in slowly but surely, down to 4.3.


    4.2 now...

    Pre poll positioning ?
    Should be a good trading market over the next 48 hours..
    As it's back to 4.4 you are correct.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336
    MikeSmithson said:

    Carnyx said:

    DanSmith said:

    Says a lot about the media industry that a pollster can be spot on like this and yet get virtually no work out of it.

    Wonder why the media didn't want to use Ipsos-MORI?

    However, I have a question for OGH, please. You omit the list vote. How did they do with it? Or is that impossible to poll reasonably?

    Unfortunately the media is reluctant to pay out for phone polls. The preference is for cheapie online ones.

    On the list vote the pollsters, apart from Ipsos-MORI, didn't do great. Thus the final gap between SNP and LAB was 17.7%. YouGov final poll had it at 3%.



    Thanks!

  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Moderator trigger warning.Ukip showing their true colours,Absolutely vile.

    http://voxpoliticalonline.com/2014/09/16/how-ukip-and-their-supporters-turned-an-abuse-scandal-into-political-point-scoring-trigger-alert-slatukip/
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    malcolmg said:

    Patrick said:

    Socrates said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Cameron hints at English votes for English laws:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29219162

    "Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both distanced themselves from the idea of an English Parliament, using the debate instead to push for "devolution" of the English regions, with tax and spending powers handed to beefed-up city regions."

    .....

    [MODERATED] is what I think of that.

    They believe in devolution, but only to left-wing parts of the country. What a ####ing joke.
    England is England. It is a unitary demos. An entity. A country. Not an amalgam of 'regions'. If lefties don't like that because they themselves unleashed the devolution monster - well cry me a river.
    Patrick , LOL and Cameron is down to taking orders from the Great Clunking Loser. Leading Cameron and Clegg by the nose.
    Bookies starting to pay out on a NO vote already Malcolm...Wonder why.?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I take it punters aren't buying the supposed data from the leaked Labour canvas returns showing No ahead by 57/43 in Dundee, 64/36 in Glasgow, and 70/30 in Aberdeen:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scotland-independence-vote-we-will-win-says-darling-i-know-that-because-ive-seen-the-returns-9731656.html?origin=internalSearch
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    We're approaching dodo shoot levels of self-interest.

    I'm looking forward to labour going to the country with a policy of denying the English what they are only too happy to give the Scots....
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    isam said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Off topic:

    I found this tucked away quietly in the corner of the BBC News website

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29220535

    "South Yorkshire's Police and Crime Commissioner Shaun Wright has resigned over the Rotherham child abuse scandal.

    Mr Wright faced repeated calls to step down in the wake of a report which found at least 1,400 children were abused in the town from 1997 to 2013."

    What price the first UKIP PCC in the by-election? Somehow I suspect turnout may be better than in the West Midlands.
    Ukip are 8/1 in a by election In a constituency that has faced similar challenges
    That's a parliamentary constituency following the death of the MP. I'd make UKIP odds-on for the PCC election given the turnout motivation. Though they do need to pick the right candidate.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    AndyJS said:

    Lennon said:

    AndyJS said:

    Shetland News comes out in favour of YES, which is a bit discombobulating because I had it down as the highest No vote in my prediction:

    www.shetnews.co.uk/features/scottish-independence-debate/9293-shetland-news-says-yes-to-independence

    How did you get your predictions by the way Andy?
    My starting point was the 1997 referendum results, and then I factored in various other indicators, mainly based on demographics and Westminster/Holyrood voting trends. It's more anecdotal than scientific, I have to admit.

    I'm reasonably confident about the mainland council predictions, less so for Orkney, Shetland and Western Isles which might behave rather idiosyncraticly.
    OK, thanks - I was looking at the 1997 Referendum results, and trying to work out how you had got your Shetland number from that - if you are also taking into account the low SNP vote / Infinite Lib Dem vote, as well as demographics then that makes some degree of sense (although I'm personally not convinced by that logic for the Islands, but they could easily be somewhat idiosyncratic as you say)
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Afternoon all and Andy can you pl give a link to your predictions? If Shetland is going YES, don't fancy the chances for UK plc.

    If Scotland votes NO I don't think the promise from Dave, Ed and Nick will be worth the toilet paper it has been printed on, judging by comments I have heard from both Tory and Labour MPs in England on the box this morning.

    Why is the Labour leadership still talking to rooms full of Labour party activists? They should be out on the streets if they seriously want to save the union.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336
    timmo said:

    malcolmg said:

    Patrick said:

    Socrates said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Cameron hints at English votes for English laws:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29219162

    "Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both distanced themselves from the idea of an English Parliament, using the debate instead to push for "devolution" of the English regions, with tax and spending powers handed to beefed-up city regions."

    .....

    [MODERATED] is what I think of that.

    They believe in devolution, but only to left-wing parts of the country. What a ####ing joke.
    England is England. It is a unitary demos. An entity. A country. Not an amalgam of 'regions'. If lefties don't like that because they themselves unleashed the devolution monster - well cry me a river.
    Patrick , LOL and Cameron is down to taking orders from the Great Clunking Loser. Leading Cameron and Clegg by the nose.
    Bookies starting to pay out on a NO vote already Malcolm...Wonder why.?
    Serious if ignorant question, why would any bookie do that?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    4.4 now ...
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    AndyJS said:

    I take it punters aren't buying the supposed data from the leaked Labour canvas returns showing No ahead by 57/43 in Dundee, 64/36 in Glasgow, and 70/30 in Aberdeen:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scotland-independence-vote-we-will-win-says-darling-i-know-that-because-ive-seen-the-returns-9731656.html?origin=internalSearch

    As someone said earlier - given the (in)competence shown by Labour canvass returns in the past (cf Bradford West, Recent Scottish By-Election) they are being treating with even more salt than usual.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Easterross said:

    Afternoon all and Andy can you pl give a link to your predictions? If Shetland is going YES, don't fancy the chances for UK plc.

    If Scotland votes NO I don't think the promise from Dave, Ed and Nick will be worth the toilet paper it has been printed on, judging by comments I have heard from both Tory and Labour MPs in England on the box this morning.

    Why is the Labour leadership still talking to rooms full of Labour party activists? They should be out on the streets if they seriously want to save the union.

    This isn't my final prediction. I'll be taking tomorrow's polls into account.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/txcTnTqEF6hmKvzevjiZyZw/htmlview#gid=0
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,789
    A bizarre comment in the previous thread from Charles (although I'm not sure whether he actually agrees with the idea, opposes the idea or was merely repeating something which Hopi Sen had written):

    "With England being 85% of the UK, an English Parliament would have the ability to abuse its power. Let's say the English Parliament created a zone alongside the Scottish border with 0% corporate tax, funded by higher borrowing spread over the rest of England. They could pretty much devastate the Scottish economy, without Scotland having the ability to respond effectively."

    Does Germany have such a zone along the border with Austria ?
    Does France have such a zone along the border with Belgium ?
    Does Spain have such a zone along the border with Portugal ?
    Does the USA have such a zone along the border with Canada ?

    etc, etc, etc including

    Does the UK have such a zone along the border with the Irish Republic ?

    The crap the anti-English bigots are reduced to spouting gets more desperate by the day.



  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    volcanopete said:

    Moderator trigger warning.Ukip showing their true colours,Absolutely vile.

    http://voxpoliticalonline.com/2014/09/16/how-ukip-and-their-supporters-turned-an-abuse-scandal-into-political-point-scoring-trigger-alert-slatukip/

    Get over it
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Moderator trigger warning.Ukip showing their true colours,Absolutely vile.

    What is vile is the labour championed political correctness, that directly led to the abuse

    Think you've sneaked past this scandal mate? think again.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Carnyx said:

    timmo said:

    malcolmg said:

    Patrick said:

    Socrates said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Cameron hints at English votes for English laws:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29219162

    "Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both distanced themselves from the idea of an English Parliament, using the debate instead to push for "devolution" of the English regions, with tax and spending powers handed to beefed-up city regions."

    .....

    [MODERATED] is what I think of that.

    They believe in devolution, but only to left-wing parts of the country. What a ####ing joke.
    England is England. It is a unitary demos. An entity. A country. Not an amalgam of 'regions'. If lefties don't like that because they themselves unleashed the devolution monster - well cry me a river.
    Patrick , LOL and Cameron is down to taking orders from the Great Clunking Loser. Leading Cameron and Clegg by the nose.
    Bookies starting to pay out on a NO vote already Malcolm...Wonder why.?
    Serious if ignorant question, why would any bookie do that?

    Publicity and probable lies about how much they are paying out
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    edited September 2014
    Here is the confirmation from Betfair.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxpxXySIUAA-uky.jpg
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    edited September 2014
    timmo said:

    malcolmg said:

    Patrick said:

    Socrates said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Cameron hints at English votes for English laws:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29219162

    "Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both distanced themselves from the idea of an English Parliament, using the debate instead to push for "devolution" of the English regions, with tax and spending powers handed to beefed-up city regions."

    .....

    [MODERATED] is what I think of that.

    They believe in devolution, but only to left-wing parts of the country. What a ####ing joke.
    England is England. It is a unitary demos. An entity. A country. Not an amalgam of 'regions'. If lefties don't like that because they themselves unleashed the devolution monster - well cry me a river.
    Patrick , LOL and Cameron is down to taking orders from the Great Clunking Loser. Leading Cameron and Clegg by the nose.
    Bookies starting to pay out on a NO vote already Malcolm...Wonder why.?
    publicity , but will prove expensive though as Isam says they are probably paying out peanuts.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336
    isam said:

    Carnyx said:

    timmo said:

    malcolmg said:

    Patrick said:

    Socrates said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Cameron hints at English votes for English laws:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29219162

    "Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both distanced themselves from the idea of an English Parliament, using the debate instead to push for "devolution" of the English regions, with tax and spending powers handed to beefed-up city regions."

    .....

    [MODERATED] is what I think of that.

    They believe in devolution, but only to left-wing parts of the country. What a ####ing joke.
    England is England. It is a unitary demos. An entity. A country. Not an amalgam of 'regions'. If lefties don't like that because they themselves unleashed the devolution monster - well cry me a river.
    Patrick , LOL and Cameron is down to taking orders from the Great Clunking Loser. Leading Cameron and Clegg by the nose.
    Bookies starting to pay out on a NO vote already Malcolm...Wonder why.?
    Serious if ignorant question, why would any bookie do that?

    Publicity and probable lies about how much they are paying out
    Ah. Could it be to do with low odds? Not much cost to the publicity, then?

    Presumably if it is a Yes they still pay out.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    It sounds like existing "sportsbook" bets will be paid out.

    Paddy Power do this a lot - cheap publicity.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Brown leads the Save The Union - well that's it well and truly FUKed.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2014
    Are @malcolmg / @stuartdickson or any other nationalists about? I'd love to get your perspective on which council area will have the highest yes vote %. We've now got 4 bookies who have priced this up;

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/area-with-highest-pp-yes-vote

    Personally, I'm far from convinced that Dundee will be as *yes* as the media portray. I just don't think the odds should be as low as they are..

    Anyway, last night I had a quick go at this, trying to identify the value in the odds - I compared the 32 council areas for 1997 referendum (tax powers) %, 2012 Tory vote, 2012 SNP vote and SIMD (deprivation by council area). I also did a crude ajustment for rural/urban - slightly favouing yes for the towns and no for the fields. The guardian map for yes% support, based on polling data is also interesting, but unfortunately not that useful.

    The outstanding value bet, IMO is Clackmannanshire, available at 8/1 with William Hill (5/1 elsewhere).

    My other long odds punts are;

    North Lanarkshire @ 50/1 BFSB
    West Dumbartonshire @ 33/1 PP/BFSB
    East Ayrshire @ 25/1 WH

    Am I missing anything, or are these all decent bets?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    Carnyx said:

    timmo said:

    malcolmg said:

    Patrick said:

    Socrates said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Cameron hints at English votes for English laws:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29219162

    "Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both distanced themselves from the idea of an English Parliament, using the debate instead to push for "devolution" of the English regions, with tax and spending powers handed to beefed-up city regions."

    .....

    [MODERATED] is what I think of that.

    They believe in devolution, but only to left-wing parts of the country. What a ####ing joke.
    England is England. It is a unitary demos. An entity. A country. Not an amalgam of 'regions'. If lefties don't like that because they themselves unleashed the devolution monster - well cry me a river.
    Patrick , LOL and Cameron is down to taking orders from the Great Clunking Loser. Leading Cameron and Clegg by the nose.
    Bookies starting to pay out on a NO vote already Malcolm...Wonder why.?
    Serious if ignorant question, why would any bookie do that?

    Carnyx, Paddy Power does it often to get free publicity, cheaper than buying adverts.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,585
    Anyone else believe that the God of Irony likes to make fools of people.....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    TGOHF said:

    It sounds like existing "sportsbook" bets will be paid out.

    Paddy Power do this a lot - cheap publicity.

    Flash, we actually agree
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Before the euros I stated on this site that I would be going ukip in that vote but back to blue in the GE. However this vow nonsense and Dave's frankly squirm inducing begging, has I think changed my mind. If he cant or wont stand up for the English now what hope vs Brussels?

    . Tories can cross one off in the Forest of Dean.

    I hope it isYes. Goodbye and good riddance.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,118
    timmo said:

    Here is the confirmation from Betfair.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxpxXySIUAA-uky.jpg

    Ergh? So if I had 'No' I get paid today and then can put the winnings on 'Yes' and get paid again on Friday? This seems bonkers to me.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Odds on favourite?

    Posted at 12:40
    "Polling analyst and political gambler" Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB):
    New post. Why Ipsos-MORI's final #IndyRef poll could be the one to watch out for tomorrow night http://bit.ly/1uF8sDA

    Did it push up the traffic?
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    TGOHF said:

    It sounds like existing "sportsbook" bets will be paid out.

    Paddy Power do this a lot - cheap publicity.

    They have probably done it to rub the noses of Paddy Power in the dirt...PP are normally first with this type of thing.
    I remember when PP paid out on Man Utd a few seasons back and got caned when Man City won with the last kick of the season..
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Michael Deacon‏@MichaelPDeacon·17 mins
    Gordon Brown makes joke about Dad's Army while inadvertently revealing that he's never seen it, by pronouncing it "Captain Mayne-wearing"

    Nonsense - he's probably a fan of Colonel Square in the programme.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @Easterross

    "They should be out on the streets if they seriously want to save the union."

    Maybe they don't seriously want to save the Union. I remember a post from you on here several years ago in which you said that the Union would go when the English had had enough of it and told the Scots to sod off. Maybe what you are complaining about is just a manifestation of that sentiment. "We will go through the motions, people, and hope to buggery they vote Yes".

    I have been struck by the number of moderate English-domiciled posters on here who have expressed a hope for a Yes vote. We are of course a small and self-selecting community yet I would not be surprised if the feelings expressed here are not those more widely held in England. Cameron, with his silly "Vow" and "Home Rule Bill" may be misreading the state of play in England very badly.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Tissue_Price said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Off topic:

    I found this tucked away quietly in the corner of the BBC News website

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29220535

    "South Yorkshire's Police and Crime Commissioner Shaun Wright has resigned over the Rotherham child abuse scandal.

    Mr Wright faced repeated calls to step down in the wake of a report which found at least 1,400 children were abused in the town from 1997 to 2013."

    What price the first UKIP PCC in the by-election? Somehow I suspect turnout may be better than in the West Midlands.
    I think this one is UKIP's to lose.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    rottenborough said:

    timmo said:

    Here is the confirmation from Betfair.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxpxXySIUAA-uky.jpg

    Ergh? So if I had 'No' I get paid today and then can put the winnings on 'Yes' and get paid again on Friday? This seems bonkers to me.
    No - probably bets up to this morning.


  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    David Wyllie ‏@journodave · 1 min
    There's a TNS poll due at 5pm #indyref


  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    What about a prediction thread for indy ref.

    My pred would be.

    YES - 44.5%, NO 55.5%
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Get over it

    Perhaps more to the point, get used to it.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    Pong said:

    Are @malcolmg / @stuartdickson or any other nationalists about? I'd love to get your perspective on which council area will have the highest yes vote %. We've now got 4 bookies who have priced this up;

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/area-with-highest-pp-yes-vote

    Personally, I'm far from convinced that Dundee will be as *yes* as the media portray. I just don't think the odds should be as low as they are..

    Anyway, last night I had a quick go at this, trying to identify the value in the odds - I compared the 32 council areas for 1997 referendum (tax powers) %, 2012 Tory vote, 2012 SNP vote and SIMD (deprivation by council area). I also did a crude ajustment for rural/urban - slightly favouing yes for the towns and no for the fields. The guardian map for yes% support, based on polling data is also interesting, but unfortunately not that useful.

    The outstanding value bet, IMO is Clackmannanshire, available at 8/1 with William Hill (5/1 elsewhere).

    My other long odds punts are;

    North Lanarkshire @ 50/1 BFSB
    West Dumbartonshire @ 33/1 PP/BFSB
    East Ayrshire @ 25/1 WH

    Am I missing anything, or are these all decent bets?

    I agree that Clackmannanshire is a good bet - as one of the smallest areas by electorate, if there is more consistency than expected across the country it could easily be top just on random variation on a small base. Add that to being near the SNP heartland, with a massive vote in the 1997 referendum and the 8/1 looks like value.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Just so, Mr. Slackbladder. They don't give a **** about England or devolution, they just want little fiefdoms.

    Morons. It worked so well in Scotland, didn't it?

    Because someone else is likely to storm to power in an English parliament?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    "There are at least five final IndyRef polls due out tomorrow."

    Oh goody – and no doubt a spread of results to appeal to each neurosis. #entertaining. ; )

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    Pong said:

    Are @malcolmg / @stuartdickson or any other nationalists about? I'd love to get your perspective on which council area will have the highest yes vote %. We've now got 4 bookies who have priced this up;

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/area-with-highest-pp-yes-vote

    Personally, I'm far from convinced that Dundee will be as *yes* as the media portray. I just don't think the odds should be as low as they are..

    Anyway, last night I had a quick go at this, trying to identify the value in the odds - I compared the 32 council areas for 1997 referendum (tax powers) %, 2012 Tory vote, 2012 SNP vote and SIMD (deprivation by council area). I also did a crude ajustment for rural/urban - slightly favouing yes for the towns and no for the fields. The guardian map for yes% support, based on polling data is also interesting, but unfortunately not that useful.

    The outstanding value bet, IMO is Clackmannanshire, available at 8/1 with William Hill (5/1 elsewhere).

    My other long odds punts are;

    North Lanarkshire @ 50/1 BFSB
    West Dumbartonshire @ 33/1 PP/BFSB
    East Ayrshire @ 25/1 WH

    Am I missing anything, or are these all decent bets?

    I tend to agree, Dundee is likely winner but far too short a price. Your 8-1 would be my bet , the others are all Labour areas and so if as expected their supporters are moving in droves as they become more and more Tory , could be some good outsiders there. Think N Lanarkshire is worst one though. Lots of labour areas around Glasgow could go to YES in big way. Have been surprised at Motherwell recently so even North Lanarkshire could be possible.
    What price is South lanarkshire it could be a possible.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,118
    hucks67 said:

    What about a prediction thread for indy ref.

    My pred would be.

    YES - 44.5%, NO 55.5%

    Good idea: Mine is

    YES: 51% NO: 49%
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SimonStClare said:

    "There are at least five final IndyRef polls due out tomorrow."

    Oh goody – and no doubt a spread of results to appeal to each neurosis. #entertaining. ; )

    2 - 2 and a dead heat ? ;)
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Pong said:

    Are @malcolmg / @stuartdickson or any other nationalists about? I'd love to get your perspective on which council area will have the highest yes vote %. We've now got 4 bookies who have priced this up;

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/area-with-highest-pp-yes-vote

    Personally, I'm far from convinced that Dundee will be as *yes* as the media portray. I just don't think the odds should be as low as they are..

    Anyway, last night I had a quick go at this, trying to identify the value in the odds - I compared the 32 council areas for 1997 referendum (tax powers) %, 2012 Tory vote, 2012 SNP vote and SIMD (deprivation by council area). I also did a crude ajustment for rural/urban - slightly favouing yes for the towns and no for the fields. The guardian map for yes% support, based on polling data is also interesting, but unfortunately not that useful.

    The outstanding value bet, IMO is Clackmannanshire, available at 8/1 with William Hill (5/1 elsewhere).

    My other long odds punts are;

    North Lanarkshire @ 50/1 BFSB
    West Dumbartonshire @ 33/1 PP/BFSB
    East Ayrshire @ 25/1 WH

    Am I missing anything, or are these all decent bets?

    http://www.ueapolitics.org/2014/09/15/cut-keep-guide-indyref-night/

    The table in here would be useful I think.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    malcolmg said:

    Pong said:

    Are @malcolmg / @stuartdickson or any other nationalists about? I'd love to get your perspective on which council area will have the highest yes vote %. We've now got 4 bookies who have priced this up;

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/area-with-highest-pp-yes-vote

    Personally, I'm far from convinced that Dundee will be as *yes* as the media portray. I just don't think the odds should be as low as they are..

    Anyway, last night I had a quick go at this, trying to identify the value in the odds - I compared the 32 council areas for 1997 referendum (tax powers) %, 2012 Tory vote, 2012 SNP vote and SIMD (deprivation by council area). I also did a crude ajustment for rural/urban - slightly favouing yes for the towns and no for the fields. The guardian map for yes% support, based on polling data is also interesting, but unfortunately not that useful.

    The outstanding value bet, IMO is Clackmannanshire, available at 8/1 with William Hill (5/1 elsewhere).

    My other long odds punts are;

    North Lanarkshire @ 50/1 BFSB
    West Dumbartonshire @ 33/1 PP/BFSB
    East Ayrshire @ 25/1 WH

    Am I missing anything, or are these all decent bets?

    I tend to agree, Dundee is likely winner but far too short a price. Your 8-1 would be my bet , the others are all Labour areas and so if as expected their supporters are moving in droves as they become more and more Tory , could be some good outsiders there. Think N Lanarkshire is worst one though. Lots of labour areas around Glasgow could go to YES in big way. Have been surprised at Motherwell recently so even North Lanarkshire could be possible.
    What price is South lanarkshire it could be a possible.
    66/1 Betfair Sportsbook
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited September 2014
    taffys said:

    We're approaching dodo shoot levels of self-interest.

    I'm looking forward to labour going to the country with a policy of denying the English what they are only too happy to give the Scots....

    This is getting very silly really. The Establishment has panicked at the thought of the Scots floating off with the Salmond Pied Piper act (even if he does lead them over a cliff) , and are making it up as they go along. Gordon, risen like the political undead, is wandering the Caledonian Central Belt with his shopping list to tick off, the Lib Dems want anything that slices the country up into small enough bits so they can polka dot the odd area with yellow whilst being in a blue or red sea elsewhere, and Cameron who has been tactically inept and has been caught playing with referendum matches near Labour's devolution bonfire clearly hasn't given much thought to what on earth to do about England, he just wants to get to Friday lunchtime in one piece. Then up pops Peter Hain jabbering on about the break up of the UK (well I didn't hear much talk of that from the member for Neath when Wales' referendum was won by all of 1% in 1999 did I Peter?)

    It really is disappointing that we are being led like this all round. Oddly a Yes resolves much of this constitutionally whilst opening up a Pandora's box of other nasties. A No puts the lid on many things (at present) but might lead us to cobbling together far reaching change at a gallop all in time for Christmas. Gawd help us.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Can anyone on here recall the 1975 EEC referendum when right up to the day all the predictions were for a tight race..
    In the end only the Isle of Wight voted against..wonder if there are parrallels here?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    rottenborough said:

    hucks67 said:

    What about a prediction thread for indy ref.

    My pred would be.

    YES - 44.5%, NO 55.5%

    Good idea: Mine is

    YES: 51% NO: 49%
    It could be much bigger but conservative estimate YES: 54% NO: 46%

  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    HurstLlama said:

    @Easterross

    "They should be out on the streets if they seriously want to save the union."

    Maybe they don't seriously want to save the Union. I remember a post from you on here several years ago in which you said that the Union would go when the English had had enough of it and told the Scots to sod off. Maybe what you are complaining about is just a manifestation of that sentiment. "We will go through the motions, people, and hope to buggery they vote Yes".

    I have been struck by the number of moderate English-domiciled posters on here who have expressed a hope for a Yes vote. We are of course a small and self-selecting community yet I would not be surprised if the feelings expressed here are not those more widely held in England. Cameron, with his silly "Vow" and "Home Rule Bill" may be misreading the state of play in England very badly.

    I agree with you re the English but the people I was referring to are Gordon Brown and the Pygmies who run the Scottish Labour Party.

    Norman Smith on the BBC news has just said it is now Gordon Brown who is in charge of the NO campaign in order to try and stem the flood of Scottish Labour voters to the YES camp. So those of you who think NO will win, remember Jonah Brown's track record!
This discussion has been closed.