As a poster on JK's site said, has anyone ever come across a shy vote for the side clearly ahead in polls which has the backing of all the media?
How often has the opposing side been rampaging through the streets intimidating people, destroying campaign advertising, marching on broadcasters and threatening journalists?
How might that impact the shy factor do you think?
On the score of death threats, physical attacks, actual police arrests and documented news reports, etc., corroborated by tweets etc. to fill in the gaps, No seems to leading that particular score quite comfortably at the moment, the main exceptions being the infamous eggs and that rather odd story of Mr Palmer exMP.
For sure there have been remarkably few arrests given that some posters and newspapers seem to think we are in a state of street war like Germany in the 1930s.
Another test, if I were to accept your views, is whether the timing of the relative issues matches the shy vote discussion. Mr Darling et al's hysteria and the infamous Herald article was IIRC Monday before last. Of course, it may be in their interest to create a climate of fear.
So if it’s ‘yes’ this weekend, the independence negotiations will be handled on the Union side by politicians who feel pretty sore about what has happened, and know their voters feel mildly sore too.
And if it’s a ‘no’, the paradox will be that even as Scotland cleaves to its union with the rest of the United Kingdom, the rest of the United Kingdom turns a little bitterly away. ‘Yes’ or ‘no’ — unless it’s an overwhelming ‘no’ — I as an Englishman will have never felt less affectionately towards Scotland than this weekend.
A good article. The recent panicky self-abasement by our political class has been humiliating. If only I had a vote, I'd vote yes. If only we could exile Cameron and Co in Scotland and get ourselves a better class of grown-up politicians.
It's a lot better article than the one Parris did, to write off Clacton as a seedy mess and not worth bothering about.
Mr. K., The Parris article was much was than that. What he said was that there is a whole chunk of white working class voters whose opinions the Conservatives should ignore.
If you are getting on a bit, if you like simple pleasures (not shared by the metropolitan elite), if you care about the fate of ordinary young people (not those destined for Uni) then the Conservative party should not want to know you or care about what you think. That was one whole big ball of poison from a man who runs Conservative election procedures and one which Cameron and his clique have been very inefficient at rebutting. One might almost feel that Cameron agrees with it.
If I were running UKIP election strategy I would have copes of the Parris article posted to every house in my target areas and posted up on every lamppost within them. This is what the Conservatives think of you. Add that to Cameron's new "Vow". I reckon UKIP should be odds on to take a few seats next May.
DONE ALREADY and in spades. The Indy/ref news of the past week has knocked the by- elections off the front page, but I assure you a special pamphlet, re Parris, was printed and distributed by the UKIP activists.
If anyone doesn't think that the Tories have much to lose in Scotland, I wonder if that is perhaps too much a Westminster view (if hard on Mr Mundell MP).
There are quite a few in the Scottish Parliament, so any problems coming from the Tory side of the tripartite agreement could redound on them in the 2016 elections. Are those hostages to be abandoned by the home party? Have the Tories given up hope of regaining lost territory in Scotland, in the event of a No?
The Tory party in Scotland should seperate away from the main Tory party. In my opinion it's the only thing that can contain the march of UKIP, which will otherwise limit Tory recover to highly prosperous enclaves. In my opinion.
Just to clarify, are you talking about UKIP south or north of the border, or both? And why would the split help the Tories to fight UKIP?
Sorry, it was a little unclear. I propose that the Scottish Conservatives should be independent (ho ho) of the English Conservatives. An affiliated but independent movement, much like the Ulster Unionists. With a new name, and an independent leadership. I believe that an attempt was made to do this a while ago but it was stymied. In this way, the party would benefit from a renewed interest and a renewed appeal, leaving behind the image of the Conservative Party in Scotland, which has been irrevocably damaged. They would therefore be a new and relatively untained party, yet benefit from the existing infrastructure, putting them ahead of UKIP, which has also suffered from image problems.
Thanks for that - see also my reply to MaxPB. That makes sense. IIRC it was Murdo Fraser, Ms Davidson's main opponent for Scon leadership, who proposed the demolish and rebuild job.
The question is how different the organization would be, right down to faces involved, before enough Scots were willing to accept it had nothing to do with Mrs T. Else you'd need to wait till the oldies died off, and even another couple of decades might not be enough in some areas. Anyway, a good point and one to think about for the future.
There's a lot in a change of name, and even more so in the fact that the party would not have to obey the leader of the main party. Personally I'm all for dispersion of power -surest way to avoid abuse of power.
Around 30% of the Scottish population are core supporters of independence. It bounces around a bit as shown by the excellent Scottish Social Survey, which has asked the same question about it every year since 1999:
We went into this referendum with a historically low support for independence (23%), which is why Unionists were lulled into a false sense of security. Over the campaign, Yes Scotland has managed to persuade a further 20% - 30% who were No's, Don't Know's or Maybe's to switch to YES. They have done this, oddly, by convincing them that independence represents no practical change, leaving the way free for a purely rhetorical switch of position.
Borrowing a term from the Bella Caledonia online magazine, I describe this group as having "made the journey to YES". This group of new Independents are the most vocal, out-posturing even the oldtimers.
I detect a certain levelling off in the rhetoric coming from this quarter as reality at last starts to intrude into the debate. The question is, will they change their vote, or go ahead with YES, but with nagging doubts? I suspect they are too emotionally invested to come off their high horse now, but would privately welcome a YES vote not quite making the bar. If it turns out that way, they will rationalise it as giving Westminster a good kicking and will praise Alex Salmond's brinkmanship. Of course, it could all miscalculate and we get a YES vote after all.
#faisalislam: Quite something when we think it is brave for a leader of the Labour Party to go on a walkabout in a shopping centre in Scotland's capital
Eck's Brownshirts and their ugly campaign of intimidation should face a day of reckoning...
I find it difficult to take any [edit} posting (sorry, improved wording now) seriously which assumes that the Yes campaign is about the SNP and Mr Salmond alone.
I'm just wondering, would any Labour chaps here recognise the good old days of mass action and protest? How many of those are disaffected Labour voters? Or just reporters?
Anyway I have things to do and now I've seen RCS1000 is in favour of letting off some of the most despicable individuals in our society (drug dealers) off if i don't go now I'll never leave.
Pip Pip!
the suppliers wouldn't be despicable if the drugs were legalised. think of the money we'd save....
For heaven's sake - the guy's a journalist, not a Conservative politician.
I really think the entire country is going mad. If people are seriously going to change their vote because of such nonsense, then the country is really in a bad way.
Come on, Mr. Nabavi, he holds no post in the Conservative Party but they have been using him for chairing selection meetings and so forth. So perhaps no so uncoupled as you might wish. Did anyone from the Cameron clique come out and slap him down? Not that I have seen reported.
As you well know smears only gain traction if they appear credible. The Parris article was not of course a smear but to an awful lot of people it might appear a credible version of current top Conservative thinking. I reckon Parris, and the absence of a robust official response, will cost the Conservatives several hundreds of thousands of votes. That has to equal seats.
If anyone doesn't think that the Tories have much to lose in Scotland, I wonder if that is perhaps too much a Westminster view (if hard on Mr Mundell MP).
There are quite a few in the Scottish Parliament, so any problems coming from the Tory side of the tripartite agreement could redound on them in the 2016 elections. Are those hostages to be abandoned by the home party? Have the Tories given up hope of regaining lost territory in Scotland, in the event of a No?
The Tory party in Scotland should seperate away from the main Tory party. In my opinion it's the only thing that can contain the march of UKIP, which will otherwise limit Tory recover to highly prosperous enclaves. In my opinion.
Just to clarify, are you talking about UKIP south or north of the border, or both? And why would the split help the Tories to fight UKIP?
Sorry, it was a little unclear. I propose that the Scottish Conservatives should be independent (ho ho) of the English Conservatives. An affiliated but independent movement, much like the Ulster Unionists. With a new name, and an independent leadership. I believe that an attempt was made to do this a while ago but it was stymied. In this way, the party would benefit from a renewed interest and a renewed appeal, leaving behind the image of the Conservative Party in Scotland, which has been irrevocably damaged. They would therefore be a new and relatively untained party, yet benefit from the existing infrastructure, putting them ahead of UKIP, which has also suffered from image problems.
Thanks for that - see also my reply to MaxPB. That makes sense. IIRC it was Murdo Fraser, Ms Davidson's main opponent for Scon leadership, who proposed the demolish and rebuild job.
The question is how different the organization would be, right down to faces involved, before enough Scots were willing to accept it had nothing to do with Mrs T. Else you'd need to wait till the oldies died off, and even another couple of decades might not be enough in some areas. Anyway, a good point and one to think about for the future.
There's a lot in a change of name, and even more so in the fact that the party would not have to obey the leader of the main party. Personally I'm all for dispersion of power -surest way to avoid abuse of power.
Thanks. It'd certainly be worth a try - and would perhaps be forced if the Tories in Westminster 'reneged' on further devolution. The LDs are sort of semidetached, but the real problems could come in for SLAB which as any fule kno is one monolithic party. One Nation and all that. Oh dear.
#faisalislam: Quite something when we think it is brave for a leader of the Labour Party to go on a walkabout in a shopping centre in Scotland's capital
Eck's Brownshirts and their ugly campaign of intimidation should face a day of reckoning...
I find it difficult to take any [edit} posting (sorry, improved wording now) seriously which assumes that the Yes campaign is about the SNP and Mr Salmond alone.
And yet in the 2nd debate, Salmond continually tried to link 'No' with the Tories. How odd.
So if it’s ‘yes’ this weekend, the independence negotiations will be handled on the Union side by politicians who feel pretty sore about what has happened, and know their voters feel mildly sore too.
And if it’s a ‘no’, the paradox will be that even as Scotland cleaves to its union with the rest of the United Kingdom, the rest of the United Kingdom turns a little bitterly away. ‘Yes’ or ‘no’ — unless it’s an overwhelming ‘no’ — I as an Englishman will have never felt less affectionately towards Scotland than this weekend.
A good article. The recent panicky self-abasement by our political class has been humiliating. If only I had a vote, I'd vote yes. If only we could exile Cameron and Co in Scotland and get ourselves a better class of grown-up politicians.
It's a lot better article than the one Parris did, to write off Clacton as a seedy mess and not worth bothering about.
Mr. K., The Parris article was much was than that. What he said was that there is a whole chunk of white working class voters whose opinions the Conservatives should ignore.
If you are getting on a bit, if you like simple pleasures (not shared by the metropolitan elite), if you care about the fate of ordinary young people (not those destined for Uni) then the Conservative party should not want to know you or care about what you think. That was one whole big ball of poison from a man who runs Conservative election procedures and one which Cameron and his clique have been very inefficient at rebutting. One might almost feel that Cameron agrees with it.
If I were running UKIP election strategy I would have copes of the Parris article posted to every house in my target areas and posted up on every lamppost within them. This is what the Conservatives think of you. Add that to Cameron's new "Vow". I reckon UKIP should be odds on to take a few seats next May.
For heaven's sake - the guy's a journalist, not a Conservative politician.
I really think the entire country is going mad. If people are seriously going to change their vote because of such nonsense, then the country is really in a bad way.
He is however a former Conservative politician and the association is close enough for UKIP or whoever to take full political advantage.
This was no ordinary piece of hurly-burly. This was aggressive and visceral. This was organised, whipped up hatred. Now this is out of the box, it won’t return there come Friday. I fear the consequences for this great country either way.
Come on, Mr. Nabavi, he holds no post in the Conservative Party but they have been using him for chairing selection meetings and so forth. So perhaps no so uncoupled as you might wish. Did anyone from the Cameron clique come out and slap him down? Not that I have seen reported.
No of course not, just as no-one from Labour ever 'slaps down' the more loony articles by Polly Toynbee or George Monbiot.
As you well know smears only gain traction if they appear credible. The Parris article was not of course a smear but to an awful lot of people it might appear a credible version of current top Conservative thinking.
They only appear credible because some self-indlugent elements of the right have joined with Labour's personalised class-based attacks.
I reckon Parris, and the absence of a robust official response, will cost the Conservatives several hundreds of thousands of votes. That has to equal seats.
Then we're stuffed. Resign yourself to years of decline before voters finally regain their senses and look at the actual facts rather than voting on pure prejudice.
So if it’s ‘yes’ this weekend, the independence negotiations will be handled on the Union side by politicians who feel pretty sore about what has happened, and know their voters feel mildly sore too.
And if it’s a ‘no’, the paradox will be that even as Scotland cleaves to its union with the rest of the United Kingdom, the rest of the United Kingdom turns a little bitterly away. ‘Yes’ or ‘no’ — unless it’s an overwhelming ‘no’ — I as an Englishman will have never felt less affectionately towards Scotland than this weekend.
A good article. The recent panicky self-abasement by our political class has been humiliating. If only I had a vote, I'd vote yes. If only we could exile Cameron and Co in Scotland and get ourselves a better class of grown-up politicians.
It's a lot better article than the one Parris did, to write off Clacton as a seedy mess and not worth bothering about.
Mr. K., The Parris article was much was than that. What he said was that there is a whole chunk of white working class voters whose opinions the Conservatives should ignore.
If you are getting on a bit, if you like simple pleasures (not shared by the metropolitan elite), if you care about the fate of ordinary young people (not those destined for Uni) then the Conservative party should not want to know you or care about what you think. That was one whole big ball of poison from a man who runs Conservative election procedures and one which Cameron and his clique have been very inefficient at rebutting. One might almost feel that Cameron agrees with it.
If I were running UKIP election strategy I would have copes of the Parris article posted to every house in my target areas and posted up on every lamppost within them. This is what the Conservatives think of you. Add that to Cameron's new "Vow". I reckon UKIP should be odds on to take a few seats next May.
DONE ALREADY and in spades. The Indy/ref news of the past week has knocked the by- elections off the front page, but I assure you a special pamphlet, re Parris, was printed and distributed by the UKIP activists.
Any chance you could send me a copy via the PM system? I'll have to kick my local UKIP candidate up the arse but so far I haven't seen it and I have a whole council estate full of people who would love to know what the Conservatives think of them.
For heaven's sake - the guy's a journalist, not a Conservative politician.
I really think the entire country is going mad. If people are seriously going to change their vote because of such nonsense, then the country is really in a bad way.
Come on, Mr. Nabavi, he holds no post in the Conservative Party but they have been using him for chairing selection meetings and so forth. So perhaps no so uncoupled as you might wish. Did anyone from the Cameron clique come out and slap him down? Not that I have seen reported.
As you well know smears only gain traction if they appear credible. The Parris article was not of course a smear but to an awful lot of people it might appear a credible version of current top Conservative thinking. I reckon Parris, and the absence of a robust official response, will cost the Conservatives several hundreds of thousands of votes. That has to equal seats.
Brilliant isn't it?
Earlier today we have volcano Pete calling ukip vile and disgusting etc etc because some supposed ukip supporters on twitter abuse labour over their handling of child abuse....
Yet when an ex conservative mp who chairs conservative assoction events such as hustings, slags off a whole class of people, it is wrong to link it with the conservatives??!!
UKIP candidate gives an address from Eddisbury Con from Bury North Green from Heywood and Middleton Labour from Rossendale and Darwen LD from Heywood and Middleton
I think rcs1000 could be right about No 60%, although - if so - it would be puzzling why the polls got it so wrong.
If 'shy noes' turn out to be correct as well, then that will lead to a number of questions about why the online polls didn't correct for them and what that implies for UKIP in the GE 2015 polling.
He is however a former Conservative politician and the association is close enough for UKIP or whoever to take full political advantage.
He was a backbench MP over a quarter of a century ago! It's not like he's even someone in the position of Dennis Skinner, a current MP, who says loony things much of the time.
As a poster on JK's site said, has anyone ever come across a shy vote for the side clearly ahead in polls which has the backing of all the media?
Not all the media. And not the backing of the incumbent Government, which has carefully arranged date, question, age qualification, and a series of national events (Bannockburn/Year of Homecoming) in its favour. Hardly the plucky struggle some are making it out to be.
May I duck in and suggest that Bannockburn was irrelevant? The SNP took very little active part in Bannockburn 2014/Homecoming which was effectively delegated to the NTS - hardly a SNP front. To be more involved would have been pointless given two factors. The lack of media control, remember how little the BBC flagged it up specially with Armed Froces Day deliberately placed next door by the UK Gmt and local council. And the overwhelming* lack of references to the 13th and 14 th centuries on the Yes side (as opposed to No), the Declaration of Arbroath excepted.
*the odd reference to W. Wallace excepted.
The far more important consideration was (a) time to discuss, and we see now also time for Mr Cameron to sort out devomax and all that, if he wished, and (b) concentrating Labour and LD minds as the UKGE approached. And we are seeing how that is panning out, I suppose.
My ancestor read the Riot Act in Glasgow during the Red Clydeside uprising. I cannot fucking believe Labour members are complaining about shoving and shouting as if it's the fucking apocalypse.
So if it’s ‘yes’ this weekend, the independence negotiations will be handled on the Union side by politicians who feel pretty sore about what has happened, and know their voters feel mildly sore too.
And if it’s a ‘no’, the paradox will be that even as Scotland cleaves to its union with the rest of the United Kingdom, the rest of the United Kingdom turns a little bitterly away. ‘Yes’ or ‘no’ — unless it’s an overwhelming ‘no’ — I as an Englishman will have never felt less affectionately towards Scotland than this weekend.
A good article. The recent panicky self-abasement by our political class has been humiliating. If only I had a vote, I'd vote yes. If only we could exile Cameron and Co in Scotland and get ourselves a better class of grown-up politicians.
It's a lot better article than the one Parris did, to write off Clacton as a seedy mess and not worth bothering about.
Mr. K., The Parris article was much was than that. What he said was that there is a whole chunk of white working class voters whose opinions the Conservatives should ignore.
If you are getting on a bit, if you like simple pleasures (not shared by the metropolitan elite), if you care about the fate of ordinary young people (not those destined for Uni) then the Conservative party should not want to know you or care about what you think. That was one whole big ball of poison from a man who runs Conservative election procedures and one which Cameron and his clique have been very inefficient at rebutting. One might almost feel that Cameron agrees with it.
If I were running UKIP election strategy I would have copes of the Parris article posted to every house in my target areas and posted up on every lamppost within them. This is what the Conservatives think of you. Add that to Cameron's new "Vow". I reckon UKIP should be odds on to take a few seats next May.
For heaven's sake - the guy's a journalist, not a Conservative politician.
I really think the entire country is going mad. If people are seriously going to change their vote because of such nonsense, then the country is really in a bad way.
He is however a former Conservative politician and the association is close enough for UKIP or whoever to take full political advantage.
Deaperate tactics by ukip. But then they are a bunch of desperadoes!
UKIP candidate gives an address from Eddisbury Con from Bury North Green from Heywood and Middleton Labour from Rossendale and Darwen LD from Heywood and Middleton
Is that one of the shortest recent nomination lists for a by-election? Normally you get all sorts of odds and sods taking the option of standing (Independents, OMRLP, etc.)
The idea that the Scottish government has bravely struggled to protect the NHS budget under intolerable pressure from Westminster is contradicted by independent research.
The reality is that Scottish governments have for some years chosen to increase health spending by less than it went up in England.
My ancestor read the Riot Act in Glasgow during the Red Clydeside uprising. I cannot fucking believe Labour members are complaining about shoving and shouting as if it's the fucking apocalypse.
I thought it was a Guardian journalist doing the complaining - they're notoriously delicate...
My ancestor read the Riot Act in Glasgow during the Red Clydeside uprising. I cannot fucking believe Labour members are complaining about shoving and shouting as if it's the fucking apocalypse.
It does not even compare with the violence in the Quebec referendum.
It has been on the whole a restrained and civilised affair, MalcolmG's posts notwithstanding.
My ancestor read the Riot Act in Glasgow during the Red Clydeside uprising. I cannot fucking believe Labour members are complaining about shoving and shouting as if it's the fucking apocalypse.
I thought it was a Guardian journalist doing the complaining - they're notoriously delicate...
Really? Journalists are complaining about a scrum around a political figure?
The idea that the Scottish government has bravely struggled to protect the NHS budget under intolerable pressure from Westminster is contradicted by independent research.
The reality is that Scottish governments have for some years chosen to increase health spending by less than it went up in England.
*** Poll Alert - New Scottish Independence Polling ****
On behalf of The Scottish Dail Mail, we will have a new Scottish Independence Poll out later today with online fieldwork conducted from 12-16 September. For comparison purposes, use the change since our last online poll for Daily Record published 11 September as the methodology is the same.
SURVATION
ok ok, but when do we get the next important poll that matters - Clacton?
Any chance you could send me a copy via the PM system? I'll have to kick my local UKIP candidate up the arse but so far I haven't seen it and I have a whole council estate full of people who would love to know what the Conservatives think of them.
If they want to know what the Conservatives think of them (and, more importantly, intend to do to improve things for them), they should listen to the Conservatives, not to random journalists whom UKIP dishonestly present as representing the Conservatives.
Still, I suppose at least we can now give up any pretence that UKIP are an honest party who talk straight. They seem to have learnt their tactics from Alastair Campbell.
David Schneider@davidschneider·4 mins Tough day for Miliband: shouted at, shoved, called a "traitor" and "liar" - that's absolutely the last time he visits his brother.
The idea that the Scottish government has bravely struggled to protect the NHS budget under intolerable pressure from Westminster is contradicted by independent research.
The reality is that Scottish governments have for some years chosen to increase health spending by less than it went up in England.
Then we're stuffed. Resign yourself to years of decline before voters finally regain their senses and look at the actual facts rather than voting on pure prejudice.
I have lived through many decades of decline already. It maybe that for the rest of my life I will see the same. What I will no longer do is vote for parties that have that as their goal.
#faisalislam: Quite something when we think it is brave for a leader of the Labour Party to go on a walkabout in a shopping centre in Scotland's capital
Eck's Brownshirts and their ugly campaign of intimidation should face a day of reckoning...
I find it difficult to take any [edit} posting (sorry, improved wording now) seriously which assumes that the Yes campaign is about the SNP and Mr Salmond alone.
And yet in the 2nd debate, Salmond continually tried to link 'No' with the Tories. How odd.
Given that they are the main funders (directly and indirectly though their contacts) for Better Together, that's fair enough. Even Mr Darling seemed to be agreeing how nice the Tory policies were.
In the case of the street events I think it's far more likely that the main action is from the various lefties of Yes.
It's this lefty component of the Yes campaign I find particularly interesting - and particularly neglected by the media. Yet if SLAB aren't careful they'll find no room anywhere - the SNP in the middle, the SCons on the right (perhaps under a new name and new management) and a new ILP on the left.
My ancestor read the Riot Act in Glasgow during the Red Clydeside uprising. I cannot fucking believe Labour members are complaining about shoving and shouting as if it's the fucking apocalypse.
I thought it was a Guardian journalist doing the complaining - they're notoriously delicate...
Really? Journalists are complaining about a scrum around a political figure?
I think it was more the inability to conduct interviews because of the shouting of "F*cking liar" and jostling.......
My ancestor read the Riot Act in Glasgow during the Red Clydeside uprising. I cannot fucking believe Labour members are complaining about shoving and shouting as if it's the fucking apocalypse.
I thought it was a Guardian journalist doing the complaining - they're notoriously delicate...
Really? Journalists are complaining about a scrum around a political figure?
Apparently so - I've seen worse behavior at a Harrods sale - #wussies ; )
David Schneider@davidschneider·4 mins Tough day for Miliband: shouted at, shoved, called a "traitor" and "liar" - that's absolutely the last time he visits his brother.
Any chance you could send me a copy via the PM system? I'll have to kick my local UKIP candidate up the arse but so far I haven't seen it and I have a whole council estate full of people who would love to know what the Conservatives think of them.
If they want to know what the Conservatives think of them (and, more importantly, intend to do to improve things for them), they should listen to the Conservatives, not to random journalists whom UKIP dishonestly present as representing the Conservatives.
Still, I suppose at least we can now give up any pretence that UKIP are an honest party who talk straight. They seem to have learnt their tactics from Alastair Campbell.
So what are the Conservatives saying it all seems a little quiet atm ?
As a poster on JK's site said, has anyone ever come across a shy vote for the side clearly ahead in polls which has the backing of all the media?
Not all the media. And not the backing of the incumbent Government, which has carefully arranged date, question, age qualification, and a series of national events (Bannockburn/Year of Homecoming) in its favour. Hardly the plucky struggle some are making it out to be.
May I duck in and suggest that Bannockburn was irrelevant?
Mention of Bannockburn, Braveheart, Buckfast, deep fried Mars bars & a seceding Shetland are several of the unmistakable stigmata of the Indy idiot.
Anybody know why the pound has suddenly perked up on the exchanges?
Tipping point.
Not sure.
I wouldn't bet the house on these things, but I kind of think that if I were an FX trader I'd be shorting pounds a bit until the outcome of the referendum was certain, and buying them again if it's a No.
At a guess, I should think we'll be down to about 1.20 for a euro if it's Yes, up to 1.27 on a No. I'm surprised how little fluctuation in the rate there has been over the last week or so.
Maybe the currency markets are less bothered than we are.
No-one wants to call Thursday’s result yet. But the activists in Rutherglen at least don’t seem to be in a colossal panic. Indeed, they seem far more optimistic than those back in Westminster.
So what are the Conservatives saying it all seems a little quiet atm ?
I wouldn't say it was 'quiet' exactly! But it is certainly true that the focus hasn't been on the economy and domestic politics, apart from Scotland, over recent weeks.
Let's get IndyRef out of the way, and then we can all enjoy the conferences, starting with Labour. That should be fun!
"If they want to know what the Conservatives think of them (and, more importantly, intend to do to improve things for them), they should listen to the Conservatives"
Ok. I am all ears listening out on all channels. Feint mentions of giving more money and powers to Scotland but paid for by English taxpayers. Still listening but can't hear anything other than static.
So what are the Conservatives saying it all seems a little quiet atm ?
I wouldn't say it was 'quiet' exactly! But it is certainly true that the focus hasn't been on the economy and domestic politics, apart from Scotland, over recent weeks.
Let's get IndyRef out of the way, and then we can all enjoy the conferences, starting with Labour. That should be fun!
They haven't said anything meaningful for the last year or so, bar a bit of posturing. I suspect we are in GE purdah much like Labour.
"This bloody deal, there has been no discussion in the parliamentary party, no warning, talk about panicked policy making on the hoof. Morale in the party is at rock bottom,” said one senior backbencher.
“The mess we are in now means a No vote is only just better than a Yes vote. A No vote is a disaster for the Conservatives and not great for Britain; a Yes vote is a disaster for the Conservatives and a disaster for Britain.”
UKIP candidate gives an address from Eddisbury Con from Bury North Green from Heywood and Middleton Labour from Rossendale and Darwen LD from Heywood and Middleton
Is that one of the shortest recent nomination lists for a by-election? Normally you get all sorts of odds and sods taking the option of standing (Independents, OMRLP, etc.)
Ryedale 1986 was the last time there were 3 candidates. Will have to check for 4 or 5...
My ancestor read the Riot Act in Glasgow during the Red Clydeside uprising. I cannot fucking believe Labour members are complaining about shoving and shouting as if it's the fucking apocalypse.
It does not even compare with the violence in the Quebec referendum.
It has been on the whole a restrained and civilised affair, MalcolmG's posts notwithstanding.
My ancestor read the Riot Act in Glasgow during the Red Clydeside uprising. I cannot fucking believe Labour members are complaining about shoving and shouting as if it's the fucking apocalypse.
I thought it was a Guardian journalist doing the complaining - they're notoriously delicate...
Really? Journalists are complaining about a scrum around a political figure?
I think it was more the inability to conduct interviews because of the shouting of "F*cking liar" and jostling.......
Anybody know why the pound has suddenly perked up on the exchanges?
Tipping point.
Not sure.
I wouldn't bet the house on these things, but I kind of think that if I were an FX trader I'd be shorting pounds a bit until the outcome of the referendum was certain, and buying them again if it's a No.
At a guess, I should think we'll be down to about 1.20 for a euro if it's Yes, up to 1.27 on a No. I'm surprised how little fluctuation in the rate there has been over the last week or so.
Maybe the currency markets are less bothered than we are.
One of my friends is a FX trader at Deutsche Bank. Not saying he has any special knowledge, but he's been following all this very closely. He's very certain it will be a NO. He's also been betting on a high turnout.
Are you still expecting 90%+ Peter, or stopping your buys at c.83%? (More likely IMHO)
Shy voters are shy because they are afraid of the recriminations of their choice by friends and family. That means No in this case. ICM had TCTC with 18% undecided and sure to vote. That screams massive shy voter syndrome.
Do they think pollsters will take time out from polling to phone the rest of their family or their friends?
They haven't said anything meaningful for the last year or so, bar a bit of posturing. I suspect we are in GE purdah much like Labour.
Yes, I think that is broadly right.
Labour have said nothing substantive at all, and I suspect will continue to say as little as possible apart from some Miliband gimmicks, because they don't want to scare off any of their supporters with any glimpses of reality.
The Conservatives have been hammering the 'our long-term economic plan is working' line for the last few months; it's a good line, and seems to be getting through as measured by the 'trust on the economy' polling. They now need to be more specific and forward-looking in terms of what they would do in the next parliament. I imagine we'll see that happening at the conference and in the months that follow.
The LibDems seem to be all over the place. I think they have got some quite good messages but they are delivered too sporadically.
I have to say that I find it much more distasteful the pledge to maintain the Barnett formula than the pledge to give Scotland more powers. It's very wrong that Scotland gets higher spending per head than poorer parts of England and Wales.
So what are the Conservatives saying it all seems a little quiet atm ?
I wouldn't say it was 'quiet' exactly! But it is certainly true that the focus hasn't been on the economy and domestic politics, apart from Scotland, over recent weeks.
Let's get IndyRef out of the way, and then we can all enjoy the conferences, starting with Labour. That should be fun!
They haven't said anything meaningful for the last year or so, bar a bit of posturing. I suspect we are in GE purdah much like Labour.
Mr Brooke, I strongly suspect that the Conservatives are in for an absolute pounding next May. Mr. Eagles' Dockside Hooker will have a day off in comparison. Nothing really to do with a better offering from Labour, in fact I am sure Miliband will make an even bigger dogs breakfast of the whole thing, but because Cameron is just such a gutless blancmange so few people will vote for him.
"If they want to know what the Conservatives think of them (and, more importantly, intend to do to improve things for them), they should listen to the Conservatives"
Ok. I am all ears listening out on all channels. Feint mentions of giving more money and powers to Scotland but paid for by English taxpayers. Still listening but can't hear anything other than static.
How about raising the tax threshold to take the low paid out of tax? Admittedly a LD policy, but one the Conservatives have adopted. Restoring economic growth to the highest rate of our competitors while keeping inflation down and 1.5 million jobs in the private sector. Then there are free schools, local input into health care commissioning, freezing petrol tax etc etc.
The chickens on here are nothing if not anally retentive, they regurgitate the same old tat week after week, just like BT , no hopers lacking intelligence , flair and vision. Dull , washed out losers.
I'm trying to work out how ICM's Guardian poll came up with final published figures of Lab 35/Con 33/UKIP 9/LD 10 (table 4), when its unadjusted figures (table 3) are 37/33/10/9.
"In a further step, ICM add 50% of those who refuse to answer the vote intention question or say they don’t know to the party they voted for in 2010."
I don't get how that translates into the final figures - I've even emailed Martin Boon, but he wasn't too forthcoming, repeating what he said in the intro to the PDF tables!
"No campaign sources have claimed that a Better Together activist in Aberdeen was warned he would feel like a 'Christian missionary in Syria' after a Yes vote.
A nationalist was also reported to have turned to his son in front of unionist activists in Glasgow and said: 'One day, remind me to tell you what Mussolini did to collaborators.'
And an English activist in Glasgow was told to 'get out of my country', while a Spanish woman, who had lived in Scotland for 20 years, was spat on while leaving a No rally and told to go home."
I have to say that I find it much more distasteful the pledge to maintain the Barnett formula than the pledge to give Scotland more powers. It's very wrong that Scotland gets higher spending per head than poorer parts of England and Wales.
Is it also wrong for us to pay in lots and lots more money.
One of my friends is a FX trader at Deutsche Bank. Not saying he has any special knowledge, but he's been following all this very closely. He's very certain it will be a NO.
Do you know whether he thinks a Yes vote, were it to happen, would have a big impact on the markets?
'If I were running UKIP election strategy I would have copes of the Parris article posted to every house in my target areas and posted up on every lamppost within them. This is what the Conservatives think of you.'
So if as you say Parris represents Conservative thinking, then I guess you have to agree that Godfrey Bloom's 'women are sluts' is what UKIP think of women.
So what are the Conservatives saying it all seems a little quiet atm ?
I wouldn't say it was 'quiet' exactly! But it is certainly true that the focus hasn't been on the economy and domestic politics, apart from Scotland, over recent weeks.
Let's get IndyRef out of the way, and then we can all enjoy the conferences, starting with Labour. That should be fun!
They haven't said anything meaningful for the last year or so, bar a bit of posturing. I suspect we are in GE purdah much like Labour.
Mr Brooke, I strongly suspect that the Conservatives are in for an absolute pounding next May. Mr. Eagles' Dockside Hooker will have a day off in comparison. Nothing really to do with a better offering from Labour, in fact I am sure Miliband will make an even bigger dogs breakfast of the whole thing, but because Cameron is just such a gutless blancmange so few people will vote for him.
Goodness, you realize you are sounding more like the archetypal angry kipper every time you post, foam flecking the moustache and dribbling onto the blue blazer. You'll be attacking the Brute with last week's Telegraph pensioner supplement by the end of the week at this rate.
Anybody know why the pound has suddenly perked up on the exchanges?
Tipping point.
Not sure.
I wouldn't bet the house on these things, but I kind of think that if I were an FX trader I'd be shorting pounds a bit until the outcome of the referendum was certain, and buying them again if it's a No.
At a guess, I should think we'll be down to about 1.20 for a euro if it's Yes, up to 1.27 on a No. I'm surprised how little fluctuation in the rate there has been over the last week or so.
Maybe the currency markets are less bothered than we are.
One of my friends is a FX trader at Deutsche Bank. Not saying he has any special knowledge, but he's been following all this very closely. He's very certain it will be a NO. He's also been betting on a high turnout.
Are you still expecting 90%+ Peter, or stopping your buys at c.83%? (More likely IMHO)
Steady on, Casino. I never predicted 90%+
I bought at 79 and encouraged others to do likewise until today when Sporting upped their line to 83.5%. There's no value in that price, imo, but I wouldn't sell either.
My guess is between 82/84% but I wouldn't be altogether surprised by the high eighties, or even 90%. Quebec did manage 93% after all, and in some ways the Scottish electorate could prove to be even keener.
So what are the Conservatives saying it all seems a little quiet atm ?
I wouldn't say it was 'quiet' exactly! But it is certainly true that the focus hasn't been on the economy and domestic politics, apart from Scotland, over recent weeks.
Let's get IndyRef out of the way, and then we can all enjoy the conferences, starting with Labour. That should be fun!
They haven't said anything meaningful for the last year or so, bar a bit of posturing. I suspect we are in GE purdah much like Labour.
Mr Brooke, I strongly suspect that the Conservatives are in for an absolute pounding next May. Mr. Eagles' Dockside Hooker will have a day off in comparison. Nothing really to do with a better offering from Labour, in fact I am sure Miliband will make an even bigger dogs breakfast of the whole thing, but because Cameron is just such a gutless blancmange so few people will vote for him.
Hmm
I suspect that's somewhat overdoing it Mr L. I can see an election where the 3 main parties are down to their core votes with kippers and others mopping up the voters looking for a home. Really it will all come down to the vote distibution in the 150 or so marginals and how people behave on the "keep out Ed v keep out the Tories" spectrum.
If the pollsters had a headache in the Indyref, they may have a bigger one coming in May next year.
One of my friends is a FX trader at Deutsche Bank. Not saying he has any special knowledge, but he's been following all this very closely. He's very certain it will be a NO.
Do you know whether he thinks a Yes vote, were it to happen, would have a big impact on the markets?
I'd be shorting Mars and Mazola stock right now if I thought it was going to be a Yes.
With no English money, how will the Scotch afford their staple meal?
edit: also, who makes Zoff? Their sales will collapse too.
I have to say that I find it much more distasteful the pledge to maintain the Barnett formula than the pledge to give Scotland more powers. It's very wrong that Scotland gets higher spending per head than poorer parts of England and Wales.
Is it also wrong for us to pay in lots and lots more money.
One of my friends is a FX trader at Deutsche Bank. Not saying he has any special knowledge, but he's been following all this very closely. He's very certain it will be a NO.
Do you know whether he thinks a Yes vote, were it to happen, would have a big impact on the markets?
I'd be shorting Mars and Mazola stock right now if I thought it was going to be a Yes.
With no English money, how will the Scotch afford their staple meal?
The chickens on here are nothing if not anally retentive, they regurgitate the same old tat week after week, just like BT , no hopers lacking intelligence , flair and vision. Dull , washed out losers.
You really must have contempt for the ~50% of your compatriots who are likely to vote for them, then, whatever the outcome on Thursday. What a sad state of affairs.
"If they want to know what the Conservatives think of them (and, more importantly, intend to do to improve things for them), they should listen to the Conservatives"
Ok. I am all ears listening out on all channels. Feint mentions of giving more money and powers to Scotland but paid for by English taxpayers. Still listening but can't hear anything other than static.
How about raising the tax threshold to take the low paid out of tax? Admittedly a LD policy, but one the Conservatives have adopted. Restoring economic growth to the highest rate of our competitors while keeping inflation down and 1.5 million jobs in the private sector. Then there are free schools, local input into health care commissioning, freezing petrol tax etc etc.
After all what have the Romans ever done for us?
Doc, the Economic growth figures are the most meaningless of many that the Government use as props. How much more wealthy is your average patient with all this growf?
Anyway, the question I put forward was not "What have the Romans done for us?" but "Why should we vote for them again?"
I have to say that I find it much more distasteful the pledge to maintain the Barnett formula than the pledge to give Scotland more powers. It's very wrong that Scotland gets higher spending per head than poorer parts of England and Wales.
Did you see the most interesting posts by Mr OblitusSumMe on Barnett in the previous thread?
I'm trying to work out how ICM's Guardian poll came up with final published figures of Lab 35/Con 33/UKIP 9/LD 10 (table 4), when its unadjusted figures (table 3) are 37/33/10/9.
"In a further step, ICM add 50% of those who refuse to answer the vote intention question or say they don’t know to the party they voted for in 2010."
I don't get how that translates into the final figures - I've even emailed Martin Boon, but he wasn't too forthcoming, repeating what he said in the intro to the PDF tables!
One of my friends is a FX trader at Deutsche Bank. Not saying he has any special knowledge, but he's been following all this very closely. He's very certain it will be a NO.
Do you know whether he thinks a Yes vote, were it to happen, would have a big impact on the markets?
I'd be shorting Mars and Mazola stock right now if I thought it was going to be a Yes.
With no English money, how will the Scotch afford their staple meal?
"This bloody deal, there has been no discussion in the parliamentary party, no warning, talk about panicked policy making on the hoof. Morale in the party is at rock bottom,” said one senior backbencher.
“The mess we are in now means a No vote is only just better than a Yes vote. A No vote is a disaster for the Conservatives and not great for Britain; a Yes vote is a disaster for the Conservatives and a disaster for Britain.”
I'm a long way from you politically but this is now obviously the case and the YouGov poll the weekend before last was the catalyst for the panic. The poll put the YES side 51-49 in front and triggered last week's events.
UKIP candidate gives an address from Eddisbury Con from Bury North Green from Heywood and Middleton Labour from Rossendale and Darwen LD from Heywood and Middleton
Is that one of the shortest recent nomination lists for a by-election? Normally you get all sorts of odds and sods taking the option of standing (Independents, OMRLP, etc.)
Ryedale 1986 was the last time there were 3 candidates. Will have to check for 4 or 5...
The last 5-handers were Leicester South; and Inverclyde in 2011.
Mid-Ulster 2013 was a 4 hander. The last mainland 4-hander must be pre-1986...
So what are the Conservatives saying it all seems a little quiet atm ?
I wouldn't say it was 'quiet' exactly! But it is certainly true that the focus hasn't been on the economy and domestic politics, apart from Scotland, over recent weeks.
Let's get IndyRef out of the way, and then we can all enjoy the conferences, starting with Labour. That should be fun!
They haven't said anything meaningful for the last year or so, bar a bit of posturing. I suspect we are in GE purdah much like Labour.
Mr Brooke, I strongly suspect that the Conservatives are in for an absolute pounding next May. Mr. Eagles' Dockside Hooker will have a day off in comparison. Nothing really to do with a better offering from Labour, in fact I am sure Miliband will make an even bigger dogs breakfast of the whole thing, but because Cameron is just such a gutless blancmange so few people will vote for him.
Goodness, you realize you are sounding more like the archetypal angry kipper every time you post, foam flecking the moustache and dribbling onto the blue blazer. You'll be attacking the Brute with last week's Telegraph pensioner supplement by the end of the week at this rate.
Thanks Mr, O, the first genuine belly laugh of the day. Blessings unto you. I have the moustache, it may from time to time be foam flecked but not normally while I am posting, and I never wear a jacket indoors at home.
The Brute, alas, is no longer with us he passed over at 08:29 on Friday 5th September. I am looking forward to meeting him on the other side when I may or may not have a copy of the Telegraph's Pensioner Supplement with me.
"No campaign sources have claimed that a Better Together activist in Aberdeen was warned he would feel like a 'Christian missionary in Syria' after a Yes vote.
A nationalist was also reported to have turned to his son in front of unionist activists in Glasgow and said: 'One day, remind me to tell you what Mussolini did to collaborators.'
And an English activist in Glasgow was told to 'get out of my country', while a Spanish woman, who had lived in Scotland for 20 years, was spat on while leaving a No rally and told to go home."
You'll be attacking the Brute with last week's Telegraph pensioner supplement by the end of the week at this rate.
You support the PM's 'vow' to throw more money and power at this turbulent Scotland at the expense of the good people of Elmbridge? Right behind him, are we Mr John O?
Very brave you are Malcolm, from behind your computer.
Very indeed still does not change the fact that you are a whinging jessie, I have never criticised you in the past, yet you choose to single me out and insult me so what do you expect. You want me to send you flowers. Get a life.
'If I were running UKIP election strategy I would have copes of the Parris article posted to every house in my target areas and posted up on every lamppost within them. This is what the Conservatives think of you.'
So if as you say Parris represents Conservative thinking, then I guess you have to agree that Godfrey Bloom's 'women are sluts' is what UKIP think of women.
Even if one did have to agree to that, bloom wasn't using the word slut to mean "slag", and he was joking
There's even a real possibility that Brown taking charge of the No campaign will save the Union and cost David Cameron his job.
Lol.
Certainly Brown's performance confirms that those Labour supporters who think Miliband can't do worse in 2015 than Brown did in 2010 might be in for a nasty shock.
I'm trying to work out how ICM's Guardian poll came up with final published figures of Lab 35/Con 33/UKIP 9/LD 10 (table 4), when its unadjusted figures (table 3) are 37/33/10/9.
"In a further step, ICM add 50% of those who refuse to answer the vote intention question or say they don’t know to the party they voted for in 2010."
I don't get how that translates into the final figures - I've even emailed Martin Boon, but he wasn't too forthcoming, repeating what he said in the intro to the PDF tables!
So what are the Conservatives saying it all seems a little quiet atm ?
I wouldn't say it was 'quiet' exactly! But it is certainly true that the focus hasn't been on the economy and domestic politics, apart from Scotland, over recent weeks.
Let's get IndyRef out of the way, and then we can all enjoy the conferences, starting with Labour. That should be fun!
They haven't said anything meaningful for the last year or so, bar a bit of posturing. I suspect we are in GE purdah much like Labour.
Mr Brooke, I strongly suspect that the Conservatives are in for an absolute pounding next May. Mr. Eagles' Dockside Hooker will have a day off in comparison. Nothing really to do with a better offering from Labour, in fact I am sure Miliband will make an even bigger dogs breakfast of the whole thing, but because Cameron is just such a gutless blancmange so few people will vote for him.
Goodness, you realize you are sounding more like the archetypal angry kipper every time you post, foam flecking the moustache and dribbling onto the blue blazer. You'll be attacking the Brute with last week's Telegraph pensioner supplement by the end of the week at this rate.
Thanks Mr, O, the first genuine belly laugh of the day. Blessings unto you. I have the moustache, it may from time to time be foam flecked but not normally while I am posting, and I never wear a jacket indoors at home.
The Brute, alas, is no longer with us he passed over at 08:29 on Friday 5th September. I am looking forward to meeting him on the other side when I may or may not have a copy of the Telegraph's Pensioner Supplement with me.
sad to hear that Hurst, my daughter has had one cat put down recently and her second one diagnosed with cancer so appreciate how you feel, she had them almost 20 years.
One of my friends is a FX trader at Deutsche Bank. Not saying he has any special knowledge, but he's been following all this very closely. He's very certain it will be a NO.
Do you know whether he thinks a Yes vote, were it to happen, would have a big impact on the markets?
I'd be shorting Mars and Mazola stock right now if I thought it was going to be a Yes.
With no English money, how will the Scotch afford their staple meal?
Comments
For sure there have been remarkably few arrests given that some posters and newspapers seem to think we are in a state of street war like Germany in the 1930s.
Another test, if I were to accept your views, is whether the timing of the relative issues matches the shy vote discussion. Mr Darling et al's hysteria and the infamous Herald article was IIRC Monday before last. Of course, it may be in their interest to create a climate of fear.
Around 30% of the Scottish population are core supporters of independence. It bounces around a bit as shown by the excellent Scottish Social Survey, which has asked the same question about it every year since 1999:
http://www.scotcen.org.uk/media/528152/SSA-2014-Launch-JC-Briefing-FINAL.pdf#page=5
We went into this referendum with a historically low support for independence (23%), which is why Unionists were lulled into a false sense of security. Over the campaign, Yes Scotland has managed to persuade a further 20% - 30% who were No's, Don't Know's or Maybe's to switch to YES. They have done this, oddly, by convincing them that independence represents no practical change, leaving the way free for a purely rhetorical switch of position.
Borrowing a term from the Bella Caledonia online magazine, I describe this group as having "made the journey to YES". This group of new Independents are the most vocal, out-posturing even the oldtimers.
I detect a certain levelling off in the rhetoric coming from this quarter as reality at last starts to intrude into the debate. The question is, will they change their vote, or go ahead with YES, but with nagging doubts? I suspect they are too emotionally invested to come off their high horse now, but would privately welcome a YES vote not quite making the bar. If it turns out that way, they will rationalise it as giving Westminster a good kicking and will praise Alex Salmond's brinkmanship. Of course, it could all miscalculate and we get a YES vote after all.
None of this makes feel good, by the way.
I'm just wondering, would any Labour chaps here recognise the good old days of mass action and protest? How many of those are disaffected Labour voters? Or just reporters?
As you well know smears only gain traction if they appear credible. The Parris article was not of course a smear but to an awful lot of people it might appear a credible version of current top Conservative thinking. I reckon Parris, and the absence of a robust official response, will cost the Conservatives several hundreds of thousands of votes. That has to equal seats.
Yes still the louder on Twitter, but not as one sided as it has been.
From Ashcroft table 2:
DK (2010 votes) = Lab 12, Con 24, LD 28
Ref (2010 votes) = Lab 3, Con 8, LD 1
Divided by two:
Lab 15/2 = 8, Con 32/2 = 16, LD 29/2 = 15. Total = 39
From Ashcroft Table 3 + plus above adjustments:
Lab 168 + 8 from DK/ref = 176
Con 162 + 16 = 178
UKIP unchanged = 74
LD = 42 +15 = 57
Total voters = 508 + 39 = 547
Final:
Lab 32.2%
Con 32.5%
UKIP 13.5%
LD 10.4%
http://labourlist.org/2014/09/if-the-press-dont-report-the-mob-rule-of-yes-campaigners-they-are-professionally-negligent/
Earlier today we have volcano Pete calling ukip vile and disgusting etc etc because some supposed ukip supporters on twitter abuse labour over their handling of child abuse....
Yet when an ex conservative mp who chairs conservative assoction events such as hustings, slags off a whole class of people, it is wrong to link it with the conservatives??!!
http://www.rochdale.gov.uk/pdf/2014-09-16-SPNNOP.pdf
UKIP candidate gives an address from Eddisbury
Con from Bury North
Green from Heywood and Middleton
Labour from Rossendale and Darwen
LD from Heywood and Middleton
*the odd reference to W. Wallace excepted.
The far more important consideration was (a) time to discuss, and we see now also time for Mr Cameron to sort out devomax and all that, if he wished, and (b) concentrating Labour and LD minds as the UKGE approached. And we are seeing how that is panning out, I suppose.
Lab 35.8% (-0.1)
Con 31.6% (-1.2)
UKIP 15.3% (+0.7)
LD 7.8% (+0.4)
Changes from 17th August:
Lab -0.4
Con -1.6
UKIP +2.0
LD -0.9
Lab leads, week ending:
17th Aug: 3.0%
24th Aug: 3.5%
31st Aug: 3.8%
7th Sep: 3.0%
14th Sep: 4.2%
The idea that the Scottish government has bravely struggled to protect the NHS budget under intolerable pressure from Westminster is contradicted by independent research.
The reality is that Scottish governments have for some years chosen to increase health spending by less than it went up in England.
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-scotland-scottish-government-protected-nhs/18887
It has been on the whole a restrained and civilised affair, MalcolmG's posts notwithstanding.
It was all about political parties and why / how they have converged.
I'm sure many posters on here would find it quite interesting.
Come on Rev O
Still, I suppose at least we can now give up any pretence that UKIP are an honest party who talk straight. They seem to have learnt their tactics from Alastair Campbell.
Tough day for Miliband: shouted at, shoved, called a "traitor" and "liar" - that's absolutely the last time he visits his brother.
twitter.com/Markfergusonuk/status/511898384454926338
In the case of the street events I think it's far more likely that the main action is from the various lefties of Yes.
It's this lefty component of the Yes campaign I find particularly interesting - and particularly neglected by the media. Yet if SLAB aren't careful they'll find no room anywhere - the SNP in the middle, the SCons on the right (perhaps under a new name and new management) and a new ILP on the left.
I wouldn't bet the house on these things, but I kind of think that if I were an FX trader I'd be shorting pounds a bit until the outcome of the referendum was certain, and buying them again if it's a No.
At a guess, I should think we'll be down to about 1.20 for a euro if it's Yes, up to 1.27 on a No. I'm surprised how little fluctuation in the rate there has been over the last week or so.
Maybe the currency markets are less bothered than we are.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/no-quietly-confident-on-campaign-trail/
Let's get IndyRef out of the way, and then we can all enjoy the conferences, starting with Labour. That should be fun!
"If they want to know what the Conservatives think of them (and, more importantly, intend to do to improve things for them), they should listen to the Conservatives"
Ok. I am all ears listening out on all channels. Feint mentions of giving more money and powers to Scotland but paid for by English taxpayers. Still listening but can't hear anything other than static.
"This bloody deal, there has been no discussion in the parliamentary party, no warning, talk about panicked policy making on the hoof. Morale in the party is at rock bottom,” said one senior backbencher.
“The mess we are in now means a No vote is only just better than a Yes vote. A No vote is a disaster for the Conservatives and not great for Britain; a Yes vote is a disaster for the Conservatives and a disaster for Britain.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/edb8ffe6-3da9-11e4-b782-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz3DUyy1m9V
Are you still expecting 90%+ Peter, or stopping your buys at c.83%? (More likely IMHO)
Labour have said nothing substantive at all, and I suspect will continue to say as little as possible apart from some Miliband gimmicks, because they don't want to scare off any of their supporters with any glimpses of reality.
The Conservatives have been hammering the 'our long-term economic plan is working' line for the last few months; it's a good line, and seems to be getting through as measured by the 'trust on the economy' polling. They now need to be more specific and forward-looking in terms of what they would do in the next parliament. I imagine we'll see that happening at the conference and in the months that follow.
The LibDems seem to be all over the place. I think they have got some quite good messages but they are delivered too sporadically.
After all what have the Romans ever done for us?
A nationalist was also reported to have turned to his son in front of unionist activists in Glasgow and said: 'One day, remind me to tell you what Mussolini did to collaborators.'
And an English activist in Glasgow was told to 'get out of my country', while a Spanish woman, who had lived in Scotland for 20 years, was spat on while leaving a No rally and told to go home."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2758136/Bow-imperial-master-Miliband-Labour-leader-hounded-Edinburgh-shopping-centre-Yes-protesters-pleads-civilised-debate.html
'If I were running UKIP election strategy I would have copes of the Parris article posted to every house in my target areas and posted up on every lamppost within them. This is what the Conservatives think of you.'
So if as you say Parris represents Conservative thinking, then I guess you have to agree that Godfrey Bloom's 'women are sluts' is what UKIP think of women.
I bought at 79 and encouraged others to do likewise until today when Sporting upped their line to 83.5%. There's no value in that price, imo, but I wouldn't sell either.
My guess is between 82/84% but I wouldn't be altogether surprised by the high eighties, or even 90%. Quebec did manage 93% after all, and in some ways the Scottish electorate could prove to be even keener.
I suspect that's somewhat overdoing it Mr L. I can see an election where the 3 main parties are down to their core votes with kippers and others mopping up the voters looking for a home. Really it will all come down to the vote distibution in the 150 or so marginals and how people behave on the "keep out Ed v keep out the Tories" spectrum.
If the pollsters had a headache in the Indyref, they may have a bigger one coming in May next year.
With no English money, how will the Scotch afford their staple meal?
edit: also, who makes Zoff? Their sales will collapse too.
edit #2: whiteboard pens? Airfix polystyrene cement?
Anyway, the question I put forward was not "What have the Romans done for us?" but "Why should we vote for them again?"
"Another whinging jessie"
Very brave you are Malcolm, from behind your computer.
http://www.rochdale.gov.uk/pdf/2014-09-16-SPNNOP.pdf
I'm a long way from you politically but this is now obviously the case and the YouGov poll the weekend before last was the catalyst for the panic. The poll put the YES side 51-49 in front and triggered last week's events.
For Want of a Poll....
Mid-Ulster 2013 was a 4 hander. The last mainland 4-hander must be pre-1986...
80-85% is available at 2/1, as I'm sure you're aware
The Brute, alas, is no longer with us he passed over at 08:29 on Friday 5th September. I am looking forward to meeting him on the other side when I may or may not have a copy of the Telegraph's Pensioner Supplement with me.
You support the PM's 'vow' to throw more money and power at this turbulent Scotland at the expense of the good people of Elmbridge? Right behind him, are we Mr John O?
Lol.