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The rail strike could help the Tories retain Tiverton & Honiton – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,705
    Leon said:

    But that is defensive. Erdogan has no intention of “occupying” parts of Syria. Why would he? Trying to occupy Syria would be like trying to sit on a hornet’s nest. No possible benefit is accrued
    Turkish troops have advanced into Syria and haven’t left. They’ve been in some areas for nearly 6 years. The word “occupying” seems apt. There are no plans for them to leave.

    Does Erdoğan want to *annex* these territories? I bet he’d like to. I doubt he will, but it looks a bit like the Russian troops in South Ossetia or Transnistria.

    Is it “defensive”? Kind of. Syria is a mess. There are defensive reasons to occupy the border areas. It is a very offensive kind of defence…
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,650
    edited June 2022
    Leon said:

    But that is defensive. Erdogan has no intention of “occupying” parts of Syria. Why would he? Trying to occupy Syria would be like trying to sit on a hornet’s nest. No possible benefit is accrued
    Depends how you view it. Turkiye is creating buffer zones up to 30km deep in Syria where it is relocating refugees. No idea how "occupied" or "protected" they will be.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/27/turkeys-plan-to-forcibly-relocate-syrian-refugees-gains-momentum
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,320
    Nigelb said:

    How do you do the ü thing on your keyboard ?
    ALT + 0252 on the nümeric keypad. (220 for the capital).
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,367

    Turkish troops have advanced into Syria and haven’t left. They’ve been in some areas for nearly 6 years. The word “occupying” seems apt. There are no plans for them to leave.

    Does Erdoğan want to *annex* these territories? I bet he’d like to. I doubt he will, but it looks a bit like the Russian troops in South Ossetia or Transnistria.

    Is it “defensive”? Kind of. Syria is a mess. There are defensive reasons to occupy the border areas. It is a very offensive kind of defence…
    As an aside, there's a part of Syria which is forever Turkish. Although it seems to move around a fair bit...

    #https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomb_of_Suleyman_Shah
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,797

    Turkish troops have advanced into Syria and haven’t left. They’ve been in some areas for nearly 6 years. The word “occupying” seems apt. There are no plans for them to leave.

    Does Erdoğan want to *annex* these territories? I bet he’d like to. I doubt he will, but it looks a bit like the Russian troops in South Ossetia or Transnistria.

    Is it “defensive”? Kind of. Syria is a mess. There are defensive reasons to occupy the border areas. It is a very offensive kind of defence…
    It is completely different. Erdogan is a bully and a thug but he doesn’t want to expand Turkey into Syria.

    Frankly, I wish the UK could occupy the first ten miles inland of the French coast, as a refugee buffer zone….
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,705
    Article 101 of the Turkish constitution says the President has to be a university graduate. No John Major equivalents then!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,650
    Books: Has anyone read Freedland's just published "The Escape Artist".

    It is not a story I have known well, so I just ordered a copy.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,670
    MattW said:

    One of the two rail Unions (ASLEF) has reached a settlement (5% iirc) in Scotland. RMT were more nakedly political - not sure that that has changed.

    There will be an interesting game of industrial dispute chess coming up.
    I would really like to do Inverness to Kyle and Thurso/Wick this year - been waiting more than two years!
    I did Aberdeen to Inverness, my last "conquest" on ScotRail back in March 2020.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    Just seen polling finding from Survation in Wakefield buried at the end of this article.

    https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/wakefield-voters-including-brexit-supporters-view-boris-johnson-negatively-polling-finds-3723275

    Tl:Dr. By a margin of 73-11 voters want an independent inquiry into the circumstances surrounding the selection of the previous MP.
    That's doesn't suggest much hope of a Tory hold tbh.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792
    Leon said:

    It is completely different. Erdogan is a bully and a thug but he doesn’t want to expand Turkey into Syria.

    Frankly, I wish the UK could occupy the first ten miles inland of the French coast, as a refugee buffer zone….
    I guess if we followed Putin's logic we ought to invade France to "take back" land. Not sure we really want Calais though.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    TOPPING said:

    So why do you think it hasn't already done so?
    The idea of taking on Russia is a fantastical thing that everyone hoped they would never have to do, and so they are attempting to find any and every alternative. Normalcy bias and fear.

    We're in a different world after February 24th (but some people are still nostalgic for the time before).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,728
    Dura_Ace said:

    ALT + 0252 on the nümeric keypad. (220 for the capital).
    That's PC, I think ?
    I rarely use them, but I now have Erdogan to thank for the knowledge that it's 'alt-u' followed by the vowel to be umlauted. Good on him.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,934
    HYUFD said:

    If you think there is no discipline at private schools, I suggest you never went to boarding school!

    Birbalsingh also has an excellent record of getting her pupils into Oxbridge and the Russell Group. She just said that was not the only route to social mobility eg if your parents were unemployed and you get a job
    I went to boarding school as it happens. Enjoyed it very much.

    My beef isn't particularly with Birbalsingh (though she could do with a PR adviser) but with the underlying selective authoritarianism seen on the right across many walks of life which advocates the strictest possible sanctions to any wrongdoing when it affects "them", but tends to take a rather more libertarian approach to life when it affects "us".
  • I guess if we followed Putin's logic we ought to invade France to "take back" land. Not sure we really want Calais though.
    It'd be worth it to get Bordeaux back too!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,336
    edited June 2022
    Nigelb said:

    How do you do the ü thing on your keyboard ?
    Just keep the u pressed down and the various accent options come up isn't it?

    û ü ù ú ū
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,934

    I think part of the current plan is to create zones several miles into Northern Syria controlled by Turkey, and send Syrian refugees to be housed in settlements there, simultaneously expanding the Turkish zone of influence there. The Russians haven't given him the OK for this yet, though, apparently, and they're discussing it.
    A Molotov-Ribbentrop pact de nos jours in the offing.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,683
    Random gripe:

    Q&A sessions where the moderator insists on taking a batch of questions before answering, rather than taking one question at a time. Invariably, the person tasked with answering has forgotten at least one of the questions after they've answered the first, and the question needs to be repeated.

    So instead of streamlining the process, it takes longer.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,520
    HYUFD said:

    In my experience Labour and Tory campaigners are each others opponents but they both loathe LD campaigns because they are totally ruthless and will exploit any local issue for their own ends.

    I well remember one general election campaign count in 2005 where the rather pompous LD agent told the Tory and Labour campaign heads 'there are lessons for the Tories and Labour in this'. To which the Tory and Labour campaigners replied in unison 'there are also lessons for the LDs in this in how to avoid coming third!!'
    Being ruthless and campaigning on local issues is not the same as being untrustworthy.

    You wear the most enormous blinkers if you think the Tories always run honest campaigns.
  • Nigelb said:

    That's PC, I think ?
    I rarely use them, but I now have Erdogan to thank for the knowledge that it's 'alt-u' followed by the vowel to be umlauted. Good on him.
    Or on my phone you can press and hold down the u button and it will give all sorts of options. ū ü ù û ú and 7
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Your psephoenterology posts are excellent Woolie. Your posts on yesterdays poll where you said the last three wilts are totally consistent on saying 6% lead 39-33 was spot on.

    Nb the one Wakefield poll did suggest mere tiny amount of Tory to Labour switchers, Lab win just stay at home Tories, 1987-1992 style by election. Fools gold.
    Thank you! The nuances of polling and the data fascinate me, and looking for oddities that may lead into a wider surprise or trend. It also tebds to kerp me focussed and less, um, tub thumpy! Mind you, a good rant now and again is cathartic.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    TOPPING said:

    I can't see why Biden wouldn't be satisfied with the status quo. Grinding long haul war with ground given and taken, wearing down the Russian resources. I read an article (didn't we all) that said Russia wanted to secure energy supplies and would satisfy itself once achieved.
    Get the war won quickly and you can more easily repair the economic damage - get wheat exports from Ukraine restarted for example.

    Little chance of the Democrats holding the White House in 24 if the war isn't won and the economy isn't recovering.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022
    Talking of polls
    New Techne Westminster poll:

    Lab: 39% (-1)
    Cons: 33% (+1)
    LD: 12% (-)
    Grn: 6% (-)
    SNP: 4% (-)

    @techneUK. 8-9 June,
    Changes from 2 June.

    Holding pattern still despite Dog Rescue mania
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,705
    Leon said:

    It is completely different. Erdogan is a bully and a thug but he doesn’t want to expand Turkey into Syria.

    Frankly, I wish the UK could occupy the first ten miles inland of the French coast, as a refugee buffer zone….
    https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/23/turkeys-religious-nationalists-want-ottoman-borders-iraq-erdogan/

    https://epc.ae/en/details/featured/turkish-expansion-in-the-region-motives-restrictions-and-prospects

    https://thearabweekly.com/erdogan-out-undo-treaty-lausanne-0
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,670

    Talking of polls
    New Techne Westminster poll:

    Lab: 39% (-1)
    Cons: 33% (+1)
    LD: 12% (-)
    Grn: 6% (-)
    SNP: 4% (-)

    @techneUK. 8-9 June,
    Changes from 2 June.

    Holding pattern still despite Dog Rescue mania

    Tory surge klaxon :lol:
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Leon said:

    The opposition is badly divided, so he could sneak through. But medium tern his political prognosis is not great
    Polls suggest he would likely lose in a second round to the leading CHP candidates.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Turkish_presidential_election

    Whether he'd go quietly we'd have to see.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536

    Random gripe:

    Q&A sessions where the moderator insists on taking a batch of questions before answering, rather than taking one question at a time. Invariably, the person tasked with answering has forgotten at least one of the questions after they've answered the first, and the question needs to be repeated.

    So instead of streamlining the process, it takes longer.

    Generally done to allow the person being questioned to choose which question to answer.

    I noticed Sophie Raworth asked two questions in one to SKS a few weeks ago. Inevitably he chose the easy one to answer.
  • Get the war won quickly and you can more easily repair the economic damage - get wheat exports from Ukraine restarted for example.

    Little chance of the Democrats holding the White House in 24 if the war isn't won and the economy isn't recovering.
    No chance of the war won before this November for the midterms but by November 24? Certainly possible.

    If by November 2024 the war is won, Putin is gone and most importantly for Americans "gas" prices are back down then a Biden second term might actually be a possibility and I never thought I'd say that.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,705
    Nigelb said:

    That's PC, I think ?
    I rarely use them, but I now have Erdogan to thank for the knowledge that it's 'alt-u' followed by the vowel to be umlauted. Good on him.
    But how do you do the g with a squiggle in Erdoğan?

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Just seen polling finding from Survation in Wakefield buried at the end of this article.

    https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/wakefield-voters-including-brexit-supporters-view-boris-johnson-negatively-polling-finds-3723275

    Tl:Dr. By a margin of 73-11 voters want an independent inquiry into the circumstances surrounding the selection of the previous MP.
    That's doesn't suggest much hope of a Tory hold tbh.

    Yes, any small swing (sub 10%) would be awful for Labour in the circumstances. I mean they foisted a nonce on Wakefield without due dilligence.
    Im calling 30% as the Tory marker 'against this backdrop' as 'parts of red wall up for grabs still'
  • But how do you do the g with a squiggle in Erdoğan?

    Press and hold the g doesn't do that. 😕
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,247
    edited June 2022
    TimS said:

    I went to boarding school as it happens. Enjoyed it very much.

    My beef isn't particularly with Birbalsingh (though she could do with a PR adviser) but with the underlying selective authoritarianism seen on the right across many walks of life which advocates the strictest possible sanctions to any wrongdoing when it affects "them", but tends to take a rather more libertarian approach to life when it affects "us".
    Yep. Strict sanctions on benefits claiments even a few minutes late, but hand waving indulgence of sweetheart contracts for mates or Downing St parties.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    Talking of polls
    New Techne Westminster poll:

    Lab: 39% (-1)
    Cons: 33% (+1)
    LD: 12% (-)
    Grn: 6% (-)
    SNP: 4% (-)

    @techneUK. 8-9 June,
    Changes from 2 June.

    Holding pattern still despite Dog Rescue mania

    Swing of 1% from Labour to Conservative after Boris wins his VONC!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,214
    TimS said:

    I went to boarding school as it happens. Enjoyed it very much.

    My beef isn't particularly with Birbalsingh (though she could do with a PR adviser) but with the underlying selective authoritarianism seen on the right across many walks of life which advocates the strictest possible sanctions to any wrongdoing when it affects "them", but tends to take a rather more libertarian approach to life when it affects "us".
    That's just classic hypocrisy - the rules are for thee, not me.

    In a way, the middle class parents sending their children to the Free School near me were doing something similar with their complaints that Daisy wasn't allowed to wear trainers. The school applied the uniform rules, uniformly. In the view of some of the parents, Daisy should have been an exception, since she was not likely to be into postcode wars.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    dixiedean said:

    Indeed. They were openly laughed at on the Daily Politics ISTR.
    Especially the ludicrous predictions that Labour would take Kensington and Canterbury.
    They were proved correct. Or near as dammit
    Canterbury wasn't a ludicrous prediction to anyone who knew the constituency. Trending studentwards for a long while, and then Brazier annoyed a lot or core voters by reneging on his promise to retire.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,670
    HYUFD said:

    Swing of 1% from Labour to Conservative after Boris wins his VONC!
    Still no Tory polls leads after 6 months and four days!
  • TresTres Posts: 2,819
    HYUFD said:

    Swing of 1% from Labour to Conservative after Boris wins his VONC!
    rearrange the letters ome.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022
    Tiverton thoughts.
    Impact in national picture - cheesy photo op with Davey and his hammer breaking a wall of blue cardboard boxes whilst local LDs cheer if LDs win gives some wind to their sails and we see 16% in some polls?
    Fall short and its all SKS gains and LDs struggle to get coverage/lose deposit in Wakefield/can't win for porn and drift down towards 10%?
    Colourful descriptors aside a big one for their prospects given how hard it is to get exposure with very small taxi firm/disappointing unicycle parade numbers of MPs
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,728

    Just keep the u pressed down and the various accent options come up isn't it?

    û ü ù ú ū
    Blimey, two things I've learned today.

    Now back to my 한글 studies.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,214

    Get the war won quickly and you can more easily repair the economic damage - get wheat exports from Ukraine restarted for example.

    Little chance of the Democrats holding the White House in 24 if the war isn't won and the economy isn't recovering.
    I would suspect that getting the exports working again might take months or even years. Modern ports are complicated with tons of machinery. So you have to repair all of that, clear the mines. Then you have the delivery infrastructure to get the grain to the ports....
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Still no Tory polls leads after 6 months and four days!
    But a UNS busting 1.25% swing to Tories in a small part of Crawley. MASSIVE!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    Applicant said:

    Canterbury wasn't a ludicrous prediction to anyone who knew the constituency. Trending studentwards for a long while, and then Brazier annoyed a lot or core voters by reneging on his promise to retire.
    25-1 the day before the election. I thought about it at work for nearly 10 minutes and finally came to the conclusion "nah". :disappointed:

    Still, had Labour winning Sheffield Hallam at 25-1, so not all bad.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    Nigelb said:

    Blimey, two things I've learned today.

    Now back to my 한글 studies.
    I just get a line of uuuuuuuuuuuus when I do that. And I can't get either of the ALT functions to work either. On word I can insert these symbols but not on here.

    File under too hard, I'm afraid.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 289
    The latest LD leaflet here claims it is very tight. It's just about possible that may actually be true!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,650
    Leon said:

    He’s probably in fear of a ruinous libel suit. An amazingly stupid thing to allege, unless he has cast iron proof
    Has he apologised to NZ yet?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,311
    HYUFD said:

    Swing of 1% from Labour to Conservative after Boris wins his VONC!
    MoE!!!!!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    tlg86 said:

    25-1 the day before the election. I thought about it at work for nearly 10 minutes and finally came to the conclusion "nah". :disappointed:

    Still, had Labour winning Sheffield Hallam at 25-1, so not all bad.
    And it still has a Tory in Duffield, just waiting to cross the floor into the loving arms of a new leader
  • DavidL said:

    I just get a line of uuuuuuuuuuuus when I do that. And I can't get either of the ALT functions to work either. On word I can insert these symbols but not on here.

    File under too hard, I'm afraid.
    There's always Ctrl+C and Ctrl+V as a last resort.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    I'm not pretending the facts on the ground don't exist. If you want to make that sort of argument, then I'd say they you're saying Ukraine has already been defeated. Something you seem to have been saying since February 24th. ;(

    The point is fuck-all to do with 'changed borders'. It is to do with the fact that the borders changed in 2014, and Russia just invaded again. Giving Russia territory now is not a guarantee of a peace for even a few years - as Dura_Ace admits.

    We should have faced up to Russia in 2014. Or over Syria. We did not, and it emboldened Putin. If we force Ukraine to give in now, then he will be further emboldened.

    The more Russia is weakened now, the better the future of the world in the medium and long term.
    I didn't say Ukraine has already been defeated; I said that people such as yourself were making huge leaps of logic based upon 30-second youtube clips.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    I would really like to do Inverness to Kyle and Thurso/Wick this year - been waiting more than two years!
    I did Aberdeen to Inverness, my last "conquest" on ScotRail back in March 2020.
    I'm planning on doing Battersea Power Station and Liverpool Street to Abbey Wood this evening. Did Liverpool Street to Paddington this morning.
  • MattW said:

    Has he apologised to NZ yet?
    The English bowlers are doing that for him. NZ 29 without loss after some sorry bowling.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,650
    kjh said:

    Being ruthless and campaigning on local issues is not the same as being untrustworthy.

    You wear the most enormous blinkers if you think the Tories always run honest campaigns.
    Lib Dem campaigns are as straight as their graphs :smile: .
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716

    I guess if we followed Putin's logic we ought to invade France to "take back" land. Not sure we really want Calais though.
    The British army are already camped out there and ready to take the place over on behalf of Her Majesty, they just need to be formally inducted into the military and offered citizenship in exchange for their service to the empire.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,367
    TOPPING said:

    I didn't say Ukraine has already been defeated; I said that people such as yourself were making huge leaps of logic based upon 30-second youtube clips.
    LOL. No. Can you give me an example of a 'huge leap of logic' I've made on this topic?

    And I'd hope it's fairly clear that my information sources are much wider than just 30-second YouTube clips. Some are 45 seconds long ... ;)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,311

    Tiverton thoughts.
    Impact in national picture - cheesy photo op with Davey and his hammer breaking a wall of blue cardboard boxes whilst local LDs cheer if LDs win gives some wind to their sails and we see 16% in some polls?
    Fall short and its all SKS gains and LDs struggle to get coverage/lose deposit in Wakefield/can't win for porn and drift down towards 10%?
    Colourful descriptors aside a big one for their prospects given how hard it is to get exposure with very small taxi firm/disappointing unicycle parade numbers of MPs

    The next big story will be Starmer and Rayner's defenestration by Durham Constabulary. I am assuming Priti is, as we speak, working as hard as one of TSE's Dockside Ladies, for this story to be out in public before the by-elections.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792
    HYUFD said:

    Swing of 1% from Labour to Conservative after Boris wins his VONC!
    Comical Ali alert!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,819

    When, previous to the invasion, we were discussing Imperialism, it was interesting to see who was uncomfortable with the idea that modern Russia and China are explicitly imperialist and following a long history of imperialism in both countries.
    I would be very interested in hearing what those determined to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian would make of a situation whereby an independent Scotland left NATO and entered into a close economic and security relationship with the Russian federation, including funding of scientific research, military training and cooperation, and intervention in politics at the highest level. Even more so if their influence had been won by supporting a series of protests that unseated an elected leader who had been in favour of close alignment with RUK. What would be a valid response to that? Would we wish them well and move on?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641

    I would really like to do Inverness to Kyle and Thurso/Wick this year - been waiting more than two years!
    I did Aberdeen to Inverness, my last "conquest" on ScotRail back in March 2020.
    Yes do it. They are both really top lines and quite different in their scenery. Summer is excellent time to go, will be the best weather and in Summer the daylight in Northern Scotland is somewhat longer than in London 👍
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,520
    MattW said:

    Lib Dem campaigns are as straight as their graphs :smile: .
    Now that is a slur!
  • HYUFD said:

    Swing of 1% from Labour to Conservative after Boris wins his VONC!
    Keir Starmer please explain !
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,520
    JonWC said:

    The latest LD leaflet here claims it is very tight. It's just about possible that may actually be true!

    The trouble is the LD leaflets will claim that regardless to ensure there is no complacency. So it might be it might not. It provides no useful information.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    Dura_Ace said:

    They started the SMO with 18 TB2 (12 Air Force + 6 Navy) and have had 8 destroyed that we know about so it's fair to say the TB2 fleet has had a severe monstering and now they use them sparingly.
    They lost one recently that seemed to have been manufactured in March, so the best guess is that they lost all they started with, received another batch and used those (including well-publicised strikes on Snake Island and on targets in Russia) until they were all shot down again.

    More are on the way.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,192

    Yes do it. They are both really top lines and quite different in their scenery. Summer is excellent time to go, will be the best weather and in Summer the daylight in Northern Scotland is somewhat longer than in London 👍
    Google midges imo. Nadine says other search engines are available for downstreaming.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 289
    kjh said:

    The trouble is the LD leaflets will claim that regardless to ensure there is no complacency. So it might be it might not. It provides no useful information.
    Might be a bit double-edged in a constituency like this where there is a very solid Tory vote to motivate though. Mind you we/they got 18k votes the first time it was contested - I'd be amazed if that wasn't enough to win on June 23rd.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,785
    edited June 2022
    tlg86 said:

    25-1 the day before the election. I thought about it at work for nearly 10 minutes and finally came to the conclusion "nah". :disappointed:

    Still, had Labour winning Sheffield Hallam at 25-1, so not all bad.
    Yes, in 2017 I backed Labour at 25/1 in Canterbury, £20. Prompted by seeing Emily Thornberry on local news walking down the High Street being very warmly greeted. One of my few real triumphs (along with Ipswich, which if I recall had Labour as a 10/1 chance).
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029

    The next big story will be Starmer and Rayner's defenestration by Durham Constabulary. I am assuming Priti is, as we speak, working as hard as one of TSE's Dockside Ladies, for this story to be out in public before the by-elections.
    You have this conspiracy theory, but the questionnaires have a 28 day response time and apparently a witness is away on holiday

    The decision will not be announced before the by elections if the police are following the same procedure as the Met
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Yes do it. They are both really top lines and quite different in their scenery. Summer is excellent time to go, will be the best weather and in Summer the daylight in Northern Scotland is somewhat longer than in London 👍
    Midges though: does depend on the location and actual weather on the day. Not an issue in the train, though, normally!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    I would really like to do Inverness to Kyle and Thurso/Wick this year - been waiting more than two years!
    I did Aberdeen to Inverness, my last "conquest" on ScotRail back in March 2020.
    BUT REMEMBER TO RESERVE SEATS. Smallish trains, still, AFAIK, and sometimes a tour party block books.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,367

    They lost one recently that seemed to have been manufactured in March, so the best guess is that they lost all they started with, received another batch and used those (including well-publicised strikes on Snake Island and on targets in Russia) until they were all shot down again.

    More are on the way.
    Or alternatively the 'right' targets for them are sparse at the moment, and they're mostly saving them (and the ground stations/operators) for an offensive. Or the Russians have found a way of jamming/interfering/EW with them, so they're not flying them. Or they're choosing not to share the operations they're flying with them.

    Could be a combination of many reasons.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073

    Yes, in 2017 I backed Labour at 25/1 in Canterbury, £20. Prompted by seeing Emily Thornberry on local news walking down the High Street being very warmly greeted. One of my few real triumphs (along with Ipswich, which if I recall had Labour as a 10/1 chance).
    Greens to unseat Thangums Debennairre. If you are not on early don’t say I didn’t tell you.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,785

    Greens to unseat Thangums Debennairre. If you are not on early don’t say I didn’t tell you.
    Zero chance. Thangam has a majority of over 28,000, got 62.3% last time. Dream on.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 958
    Doubt it Mike: reading the Lib Dem activist reports it will barely make a difference. If it did it would also affect the Conservatives as well, and in any case is only just before the by election date when the die has been cast. Most of their West country activists appear to travel by car. The local experience up here was that North Shropshire was managed primarily by activists travelling by car.
    In any case reading the runes it seems that it would take a huge change of fortune to stop a Con rout.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    edited June 2022

    Talking of polls
    New Techne Westminster poll:

    Lab: 39% (-1)
    Cons: 33% (+1)
    LD: 12% (-)
    Grn: 6% (-)
    SNP: 4% (-)

    @techneUK. 8-9 June,
    Changes from 2 June.

    Holding pattern still despite Dog Rescue mania

    Can’t wait for Opiniom. They have never (under new rules) had Tories less than 33, labour higher than 38, lead bigger than 4 and last three have just 3% leads.

    Most other polling now showing 6% holding pattern, 39-33, labour down and Tory down since previous 40/41 34/35 holding pattern with Libdem and green and reform trending up, so I suspect a 37 34 opinium holding pattern.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073

    Zero chance. Thangam has a majority of over 28,000, got 62.3% last time. Dream on.
    but since last time the trend has been green friend.

    Love your complacency 🙂
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited June 2022

    Zero chance. Thangam has a majority of over 28,000, got 62.3% last time. Dream on.
    Thangam Debbonaire is still the best name in British politics.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,552

    I'll say it again, the Tories could hold the seat thanks to a split opposition.

    This was a pretty good pointer to me that it isn't the nailed on Yellow Peril gain people think it is.

    Tiverton and Honiton by-election: Ex-Labour minister appears to suggest voters go Lib Dem

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/tiverton-honiton-lib-dems-ben-bradshaw-b2088716.html
    Worth remembering, Labour were second in 2019.

    Also worth remembering, this is a very safe Tory seat. The Party of "Bollocks to Brexit" is not a natural home for many of the voters here; more likely to be the biggest swing to the Can't Be Arsed Party as people stay home rather than vote LibDem to express their disapproval.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022

    Can’t wait for Opiniom. They have never (under new rules) had Tories less than 33, labour higher than 38, lead bigger than 4 and last three have just 3% leads.

    Most other polling now showing 6% holding pattern, 39-33, labour down and Tory down since previous 40/41 34/35 holding pattern with Libdem and green and reform trending up, so I suspect a 37 34 opinium holding pattern.
    Yes, especially with Opunium now weighting to compensate mid term apathy. When it starts to move it should indicate actual VI transfer, although always have to allow for a single poll to just be an outlier. Its the second mover you look for.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161

    Or alternatively the 'right' targets for them are sparse at the moment, and they're mostly saving them (and the ground stations/operators) for an offensive. Or the Russians have found a way of jamming/interfering/EW with them, so they're not flying them. Or they're choosing not to share the operations they're flying with them.

    Could be a combination of many reasons.
    Could be lots of things, yes, which is why I described my best guess as a best guess.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    HYUFD said:

    Swing of 1% from Labour to Conservative after Boris wins his VONC!
    Everyone loves a winner!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    edited June 2022

    Yes, especially with Opunium now weighting to compensate mid term apathy. When it starts to move it should indicate actual VI transfer, although always have to allow for a single poll to just be an outlier. Its the second mover you look for.
    That’s right, one on its own could be wrong, look for trends. 🙂

    I think the first time we will be confident of actual movement, swing back to Tories or a move other way, will be in the changing of Opiniom over about 3 - 2 or 1 % leads as average over 3 or 4 or 5% leads as average over three.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    That’s right, one on its own could be wrong, look for trends. 🙂

    I think the first time we will be confident of actual movement, swing back to Tories or a move other way, will be in the changing of Opiniom over about 3 - 2 or 1 % leads as average over 3 or 4 or 5% leads as average over three.
    Is it time for swingback or more drift? Are the Tories bouncing around the basement or on a secret trapdoor? Will an FPN sink Labour?
    Questions, questions. However now off to spend the afternoon with Pa Woolie and meine schwester.
    Ta ta all.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    edited June 2022

    Polls suggest he would likely lose in a second round to the leading CHP candidates.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Turkish_presidential_election

    Whether he'd go quietly we'd have to see.
    I think he would have to. The Army still sees itself as playing a strong, political role. And despite Erdogan's purging, there'd be a coup pdq.
    The last one only narrowly failed. A combination of popular pressure, and Erdogan himself mysteriously not being where he was scheduled to be.
    With popular pressure behind removing him, he'd be a goner.
    In more than one sense.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 289

    Worth remembering, Labour were second in 2019.

    Also worth remembering, this is a very safe Tory seat. The Party of "Bollocks to Brexit" is not a natural home for many of the voters here; more likely to be the biggest swing to the Can't Be Arsed Party as people stay home rather than vote LibDem to express their disapproval.
    This is what I think, but there are quite a few Tories who think their only hope at the next GE is to get Boris out ASAP and will vote in the by-election accordingly.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    but since last time the trend has been green friend.

    Love your complacency 🙂
    Remarkable to think this was Tory till 1997. And LD till 2015.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073

    Is it time for swingback or more drift? Are the Tories bouncing around the basement or on a secret trapdoor? Will an FPN sink Labour?
    Questions, questions. However now off to spend the afternoon with Pa Woolie and meine schwester.
    Ta ta all.
    Yes lots of questions for the PB psephoenterologists

    First quarter of June polls have been poor for Labour - a government as lost and in as much disarray and opponent split as much as this and Labour lead going nowhere in polls so I’ve revised my Tory seat prediction up to 270 and that’s mainly cropped thanks to tactical votes, thinking today the PV could be close between Labour and Tory with some swingback.

    It’s looking like a hung Parliament and probably the most well hung ever 280 versus 270. That should give Tories a lot of last minute votes in the campaign being the only ones who can promise their vote will avoid that sort of well hung madness.

    Enjoy the weather, I’m going out drinking in the sun now. 🙋‍♀️
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079
    edited June 2022

    Can’t wait for Opiniom. They have never (under new rules) had Tories less than 33, labour higher than 38, lead bigger than 4 and last three have just 3% leads.

    Most other polling now showing 6% holding pattern, 39-33, labour down and Tory down since previous 40/41 34/35 holding pattern with Libdem and green and reform trending up, so I suspect a 37 34 opinium holding pattern.
    Latest EMA shows Labour holding a 6% lead and 13 seats short of an overall majority on new boundaries according to Electoral Calculus.
    NB LDs with only 13 seats looks low to me.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    Typical. My parents and sister have gone to lunch without me and Michael Gove is sat at table next to them.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited June 2022
    dixiedean said:

    I think he would have to. The Army still sees itself as playing a strong, political role. And despite Erdogan's purging, there'd be a coup pdq.
    The last one only narrowly failed. A combination of popular pressure, and Erdogan himself mysteriously not being where he was scheduled to be.
    With popular pressure behind removing him, he'd be a goner.
    In more than one sense.
    The problem is, the neo-Ottomanism is now embraced by the CHP opposition just as much. Here's their leader last week :

    "“If you have the heart for it, take the step on the occupied and armed islands. We will support you,” CHP chief Kemal Kilicdaroglu was quoted by Turkish media as saying in response to one of a series of questions posed to him by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) at the Grand National Assembly on Wednesday."

    "“It is imperative that we increase the pressure in the Mediterranean, and the Aegean,” he said.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,320
    tlg86 said:

    Typical. My parents and sister have gone to lunch without me and Michael Gove is sat at table next to them.

    All tory MPs should have the word c*nt shouted at them when you spot one in public. It's like Pokemon Go but more fun and socially useful. I've only done two. 😔
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    NEW THREAD
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    Barnesian said:

    Latest EMA shows Labour holding a 6% lead and 13 seats short of an overall majority on new boundaries according to Electoral Calculus.
    NB LDs with only 13 seats looks low to me.

    So at the moment it looks like voters want the Tories out of government but still don't trust Labour with a majority, so basically the reverse of 2010
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    TOPPING said:

    I didn't say Ukraine has already been defeated; I said that people such as yourself were making huge leaps of logic based upon 30-second youtube clips.
    Or maybe listening to people like Phillips O'Brien, Lawrence Freedman, Michael Clarke and assorted retired generals who do this sort of thing for a living?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,214

    I would be very interested in hearing what those determined to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian would make of a situation whereby an independent Scotland left NATO and entered into a close economic and security relationship with the Russian federation, including funding of scientific research, military training and cooperation, and intervention in politics at the highest level. Even more so if their influence had been won by supporting a series of protests that unseated an elected leader who had been in favour of close alignment with RUK. What would be a valid response to that? Would we wish them well and move on?
    As is well established on PB, we would send 1 (one) truculent individual in 1 (one) rusty Second World War tank. Said tank would break down due to overheating long before it got to the Scottish border.

    Everyone else would giggle.

    Sorry, but there is no enthusiasm for making Glasgow into Mariupol or whatever.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,311

    You have this conspiracy theory, but the questionnaires have a 28 day response time and apparently a witness is away on holiday

    The decision will not be announced before the by elections if the police are following the same procedure as the Met
    It is not a conspiracy, although if you want a conspiracy Mr and Mrs Johnson not being investigated at all for the Abba Party and Johnson accepting an FPN for the single event that could sink Sunak certainly smells like one.

    Priti has every right as HS to demand a rigorous investigation into serious criminality by her political opponents. I am very much anticipating Starmer and Rayner's resignations.

    In all fairness to you, Ivo Delingpole and the Daily Mail, you all called Beergate as a far more egregious breach of the law than any accusation made of Johnson, which as we now know was pretty much all above board according to the Met Police.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,819

    As is well established on PB, we would send 1 (one) truculent individual in 1 (one) rusty Second World War tank. Said tank would break down due to overheating long before it got to the Scottish border.

    Everyone else would giggle.

    Sorry, but there is no enthusiasm for making Glasgow into Mariupol or whatever.
    I am not for a minute suggesting that mounting an invasion of Scotland is how RUK would respond (still less one as destructive as the Russian one in Ukraine), but I am saying RUK would be unlikely to 'let the matter rest', and even if we wanted to, I doubt the US would allow us.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    I am not for a minute suggesting that mounting an invasion of Scotland is how RUK would respond (still less one as destructive as the Russian one in Ukraine), but I am saying RUK would be unlikely to 'let the matter rest', and even if we wanted to, I doubt the US would allow us.
    If an independent Scotland was out of NATO but effectively a Russian satellite then NATO might invade Scotland let alone the UK.

    Though of course that would require a UK government to allow an independence referendum which Yes one and accept the result in the first place
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    That's just classic hypocrisy - the rules are for thee, not me.

    In a way, the middle class parents sending their children to the Free School near me were doing something similar with their complaints that Daisy wasn't allowed to wear trainers. The school applied the uniform rules, uniformly. In the view of some of the parents, Daisy should have been an exception, since she was not likely to be into postcode wars.
    In my (limited, personal) experience private school discipline was wildly inconsistent and hampered by the usual code of teenage omertà that my school dealt with very poorly. I was once given detention for “breaking wind loudly and rudely in class” (I still remember the citation). My infraction was not apologising to the teacher until after I’d apologised to my classmates in the blast zone. It got cancelled after my mother descended on the headteacher like Athena in a bad mood and I received a very red-faced apology from the head of senior years.

    Meanwhile, the daughter of a major donor was booted for doing something illegal and they kicked up such a mighty fuss that her sentence was commuted to a week’s suspension.

    Strictness doesn’t really matter since hotheads still do stupid shit and the emotional torturers continue to fly under the radar. I’d guess Birblesingh’s success is due to consistency and a laxer disciplinary code, but enforced equally and with gusto would work as well.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    Talking of polls
    New Techne Westminster poll:

    Lab: 39% (-1)
    Cons: 33% (+1)
    LD: 12% (-)
    Grn: 6% (-)
    SNP: 4% (-)

    @techneUK. 8-9 June,
    Changes from 2 June.

    Holding pattern still despite Dog Rescue mania

    I strongly suspect that those numbers are where it has been solidly for a couple of months now.
    The varying numbers around them being just MoE.

    (I believe that pretty much every lead - from 3 pts for Labour to 11 pts for Labour) have had the overall scores within MoE of those numbers.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Me: “Hey PB has been more sane lately, perhaps I’ll start posting again”
    Return of Sub-Clancy invasion of Scotland discussion
    Me:”…”
This discussion has been closed.