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Johnson’s premiership is on a knife edge – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,642
edited June 2022 in General
imageJohnson’s premiership is on a knife edge – politicalbetting.com

Above is the front page of Monday’s Guardian with the UK political news that looks set to dominate the next few days. It appears we are very close to a VONC on Johnson and that could happen very quickly.

Read the full story here

«13

Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,111
    edited June 2022
    First.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,678
    First unlike Boris
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,729
    edited June 2022
    I personally doubt there will be a challenge before the by elections and if there is Boris will narrowly survive it.

    If he lost it Raab might not only be temporary leader but might run for the leadership longer term too as the candidate of the right and who Johnson loyalists could then move to. Provided he got to the final 2 with MPs, even if say Hunt or Sunak won the MPs ballot, Raab would then hope to win the leadership and the premiership in the membership vote
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    He is still not at risk of losing.

    There would be leaked polling showing somebody else doing better. There isn't any because nobody else would - and that is why he is safe IMHO
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    I think you are right Mike about awaiting 23rd June. But maybe this is going to take a few rounds. There's apparently nothing to stop the 1922 Executive changing the rules.

    Another possibility is that Boris blames the rebels on the by-election defeats.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,523
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    He is still not at risk of losing.

    There would be leaked polling showing somebody else doing better. There isn't any because nobody else would - and that is why he is safe IMHO

    Though in that case, you'd almost expect Team Boris to leak polls showing that their boy is still the absolute boy. Or some paper to publish polls showing that the Conservatives are deep in the doodoo whoever leads them.

    It's an odd gap in the data right now.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,081
    edited June 2022
    I wasn't sure whether parliament is meeting tomorrow (Monday). The answer is yes. So Brady could make an announcement within hours.

    https://commonsbusiness.parliament.uk/document/57148/pdf
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,827
    Wordle 352 4/6

    ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜
    ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜
    🟩⬜🟩⬜🟨
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

    Starting words shmarting words.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,220
    edited June 2022
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    He is still not at risk of losing.

    There would be leaked polling showing somebody else doing better. There isn't any because nobody else would - and that is why he is safe IMHO

    Rotting the whole party by keeping Boris past his use by date might lose them two elections instead of one.

    I'm not sure an immediate bounce is that relevant.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,729
    edited June 2022
    Flatlander said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    He is still not at risk of losing.

    There would be leaked polling showing somebody else doing better. There isn't any because nobody else would - and that is why he is safe IMHO

    Rotting the whole party by keeping Boris past his use by date might lose them two elections instead of one.

    I'm not sure an immediate bounce is that relevant.
    Yet after the Tories removed Thatcher they lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections and after Labour effectively forced out Blair in 1997 they lost all 4 of the following general elections.

    Removing leaders who have proved they can win general election majorities at a previous election rarely ends well for the party concerned
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 12,226
    HYUFD said:

    Flatlander said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    He is still not at risk of losing.

    There would be leaked polling showing somebody else doing better. There isn't any because nobody else would - and that is why he is safe IMHO

    Rotting the whole party by keeping Boris past his use by date might lose them two elections instead of one.

    I'm not sure an immediate bounce is that relevant.
    Yet after the Tories removed Thatcher they lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections and after Labour effectively forced out Blair in 1997 they lost all 4 of the following general elections.

    Removing leaders who have proved they can win general election majorities at a previous election rarely ends well for the party concerned
    Your leader is a womans lady parts sorry if he is in place no one is going to vote tory as you are the arseholes of the universe
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,403
    HYUFD said:

    Flatlander said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    He is still not at risk of losing.

    There would be leaked polling showing somebody else doing better. There isn't any because nobody else would - and that is why he is safe IMHO

    Rotting the whole party by keeping Boris past his use by date might lose them two elections instead of one.

    I'm not sure an immediate bounce is that relevant.
    Yet after the Tories removed Thatcher they lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections and after Labour effectively forced out Blair in 1997 they lost all 4 of the following general elections.

    Removing leaders who have proved they can win general election majorities at a previous election rarely ends well for the party concerned
    This implies that the Tories lost the 2005 General Election due to some kind of backlash against the removal of Thatcher 15 years previously, and 2019 was all about a long gone, latterly somewhat unpopular Labour PM. It's all just your usual absolute rubbish.

    The fact is, parties who have been in for a while tend to become unpopular, stale, and light on policy ideas. They often try to refresh themselves by changing leader, and sometimes it works in a fashion as with Major in 1992 or Johnson in 2019. But you can't stay in office forever, and eventually you lose. It can be fairly hard to get back quickly when you lose, but eventually you do. It's just the pendulum, and you simply need to try to eke out wins where you can and not lose too badly when you lose.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 2,036
    HYUFD said:

    Flatlander said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    He is still not at risk of losing.

    There would be leaked polling showing somebody else doing better. There isn't any because nobody else would - and that is why he is safe IMHO

    Rotting the whole party by keeping Boris past his use by date might lose them two elections instead of one.

    I'm not sure an immediate bounce is that relevant.
    Yet after the Tories removed Thatcher they lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections and after Labour effectively forced out Blair in 1997 they lost all 4 of the following general elections.

    Removing leaders who have proved they can win general election majorities at a previous election rarely ends well for the party concerned
    Are you suggesting that Thatcher would've beaten Tony Blair in 1997?
    She wouldn't have beaten Kinnock.....

    You could go back to post war to see that removing a leader probably has no effect on subsequent election results. In fact, it may well help.

    If you look at the Conservatives, and taking leaders who were removed against their will:
    Eden 1957 - Con won in 1959 and lost in 1964.
    Heath 1975 - Con won next four.
    Thatcher 1990 - Con won 1992 and lost 1997.
    Duncan-Smith 2003 - Con lost 2005 (but weren't in power at the time).
    May 2019 - Con won 2019.

    Seems to me, removing the leader guarantees a win at the next election. A leader who was forced out resulted in a win for the party at the next election. Duncan-Smith is the obvious exception, but the Conservatives weren't in power in 2003.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 12,226
    Wulfrun_Phil said:


    HYUFD said:

    Flatlander said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    He is still not at risk of losing.

    There would be leaked polling showing somebody else doing better. There isn't any because nobody else would - and that is why he is safe IMHO

    Rotting the whole party by keeping Boris past his use by date might lose them two elections instead of one.

    I'm not sure an immediate bounce is that relevant.
    Yet after the Tories removed Thatcher they lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections and after Labour effectively forced out Blair in 1997 they lost all 4 of the following general elections.

    Removing leaders who have proved they can win general election majorities at a previous election rarely ends well for the party concerned

    That really is clutching at straws. In other words "we won the next election after changing the PM but we shouldn't have changed as we went on to lose the next 3 after that." Do you really think that?

    With Thatcher still in place, resolutely continuing to defend the poll tax, having scraped together just a handful more votes to see off the 1990 leadership challenge only to be left with a divided party, you would have lost in 1992 by historic proportions.

    And had not Blair and Brown campaigned as the Chuckle brothers in 2005, with the still popular Brown rather than the Iraq-tainted Blair given the lead role in a not-at-all-subtle signal that there would be a change of leadership in the aftermath, Labour would probably not have won that one.

    There are three things they need to do to get votes

    1) Get rid of boris
    2) Become an actual party of the centre right instead of the mid left
    3) Stop selecting idiots like HYUFD for elected positions
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,081
    "Boris Johnson’s allies concede Tory rebels close to triggering no-confidence vote" (via G search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/c7480de9-323a-410b-889b-dd24bbee593d
  • JSpringJSpring Posts: 107
    "Personally I think rebel Tory MPs are being premature and would be better waiting till after the June 23rd by-elections."

    There are risks in that too If they win Tiverton (which isn't implausible) then the vote would be off, maybe as far as until the next general election.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,706
    Andy_JS said:

    I wasn't sure whether parliament is meeting tomorrow (Monday). The answer is yes. So Brady could make an announcement within hours.

    https://commonsbusiness.parliament.uk/document/57148/pdf

    The alternative is Brady talks to various MPs who have sent him letters to confirm they don't want to withdraw the letter, even for a few days until after the two pending elections.
    This way Brady could manage or influence the timing of any challenge, and I seem to recollect seeking confirmation that the letters are still valid is within the rules.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,654
    philiph said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I wasn't sure whether parliament is meeting tomorrow (Monday). The answer is yes. So Brady could make an announcement within hours.

    https://commonsbusiness.parliament.uk/document/57148/pdf

    The alternative is Brady talks to various MPs who have sent him letters to confirm they don't want to withdraw the letter, even for a few days until after the two pending elections.
    This way Brady could manage or influence the timing of any challenge, and I seem to recollect seeking confirmation that the letters are still valid is within the rules.
    I thought this confirmation thing didn’t actually happen?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,428
    edited June 2022
    RobD said:

    philiph said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I wasn't sure whether parliament is meeting tomorrow (Monday). The answer is yes. So Brady could make an announcement within hours.

    https://commonsbusiness.parliament.uk/document/57148/pdf

    The alternative is Brady talks to various MPs who have sent him letters to confirm they don't want to withdraw the letter, even for a few days until after the two pending elections.
    This way Brady could manage or influence the timing of any challenge, and I seem to recollect seeking confirmation that the letters are still valid is within the rules.
    I thought this confirmation thing didn’t actually happen?
    Whether Graham Brady could in any case spin confirmation out for more than a day is doubtful. Certainly not long enough to get from here to the by-elections.

    ETA Politics Home says there is no confirmation stage.
    https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/how-does-the-confidence-vote
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,531
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    Flatlander said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    He is still not at risk of losing.

    There would be leaked polling showing somebody else doing better. There isn't any because nobody else would - and that is why he is safe IMHO

    Rotting the whole party by keeping Boris past his use by date might lose them two elections instead of one.

    I'm not sure an immediate bounce is that relevant.
    Yet after the Tories removed Thatcher they lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections and after Labour effectively forced out Blair in 1997 they lost all 4 of the following general elections.

    Removing leaders who have proved they can win general election majorities at a previous election rarely ends well for the party concerned
    This implies that the Tories lost the 2005 General Election due to some kind of backlash against the removal of Thatcher 15 years previously, and 2019 was all about a long gone, latterly somewhat unpopular Labour PM. It's all just your usual absolute rubbish.

    The fact is, parties who have been in for a while tend to become unpopular, stale, and light on policy ideas. They often try to refresh themselves by changing leader, and sometimes it works in a fashion as with Major in 1992 or Johnson in 2019. But you can't stay in office forever, and eventually you lose. It can be fairly hard to get back quickly when you lose, but eventually you do. It's just the pendulum, and you simply need to try to eke out wins where you can and not lose too badly when you lose.
    Hey, it’s an improvement.
    At least HYUFD didn’t call it “treason” this time.

    On the other hand, if there were a obvious replacement, I suspect he’d be solidly behind them at this point, so he does have half a point.
    Even if he is yet to accept that Boris is so far beyond damaged goods that even the alternative lacklustre talent on offer would be some kind of improvement.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,531
    Interesting thread on Russian social media attitudes to the war.

    In the past few days, I started sensing a certain change in the moods of comms I'm reading in various Russian sources while search for translation material….
    https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1533505067881533441
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Converse argument is equally valid, that things might fizzle out after a marginally less bad than expected Tiverton result
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,531
    The replies to this are quite amusing.

    Tory MP Lee Anderson tells Camilla Tominey to make her own mind up on the booing of Boris Johnson at the Jubilee thanksgiving service as he couldn't hear any boos in footage filmed 'from a different angle'.
    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1533493265638506496

    If this is the quality of Boris loyalists being sent out to spin on his behalf, then his days are numbered.
    I don’t think Anderson is particularly likely to hold his seat, either. Nice guy.

    … During the campaign he was criticised for staging a door knock. Prior to the staged visit, Anderson was recorded on his microphone instructing a man to "make out you know who I am, that you know I'm the candidate but not that you are a friend". The CEO of Full Fact, the fact-checking organisation stated that "Misleading campaign techniques from parties and candidates won't only harm those who are caught out, but could damage voter confidence in our political system". He was also criticised for calling for "nuisance tenants" in a council estate to be evicted into tents in a field and forced to pick vegetables. The Labour Party compared his idea to "forced labour camps".[11] Anderson was also one of three Conservative Party candidates investigated by the party over claims of antisemitism during the election campaign.[12] The investigation was opened on the grounds that he was an active member of a Facebook group in which other members supported Tommy Robinson and promoted George Soros conspiracy theories.[13][14] The results of the investigation were not made public but Anderson later attended online training sessions by the Antisemitism Policy Trust charity to improve his understanding of antisemitism. He apologised for being a member of the group and reported that he had left the group when the initial allegations were made…
    (Wikipedia)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,531
    “Don’t be distracted” says another loyalist sent out to spin, by government not distracted at all by the booing.

    Don’t ‘over-interpret’ Boris Johnson being booed, says Grant Shapps
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/05/boris-johnson-booed-jubilee-grant-shapps
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,428
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on Russian social media attitudes to the war.

    In the past few days, I started sensing a certain change in the moods of comms I'm reading in various Russian sources while search for translation material….
    https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1533505067881533441

    Interesting but given there is software for analysing the mood of social media reports, at least in English, you'd expect to have heard more. Maybe GCHQ is sitting on its results.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,531
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on Russian social media attitudes to the war.

    In the past few days, I started sensing a certain change in the moods of comms I'm reading in various Russian sources while search for translation material….
    https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1533505067881533441

    Interesting but given there is software for analysing the mood of social media reports, at least in English, you'd expect to have heard more. Maybe GCHQ is sitting on its results.
    In terms of practical effect, I’m not sure it means much at this point, other than that the propaganda is going to have to change a bit to acknowledge reality.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,531
    Boris Johnson booed AGAIN by crowds as he arrives for Queen's Platinum Jubilee concert
    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1533332031672832002
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,531
    I hadn’t noticed this.
    Poland clearly takes the Russian threat very seriously - 500 is more than the current total deployed worldwide.
    In comparison, the UK has 42 of the earlier M270 system.

    POLAND is set to acquire 500 M142 HIMARS rocket launchers, the Minister of National Defence announced on Thursday, May 26.
    https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/05/26/poland-to-acquire-500-m142-himars-rocket-launchers/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,659
    Nigelb said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    Flatlander said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    He is still not at risk of losing.

    There would be leaked polling showing somebody else doing better. There isn't any because nobody else would - and that is why he is safe IMHO

    Rotting the whole party by keeping Boris past his use by date might lose them two elections instead of one.

    I'm not sure an immediate bounce is that relevant.
    Yet after the Tories removed Thatcher they lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections and after Labour effectively forced out Blair in 1997 they lost all 4 of the following general elections.

    Removing leaders who have proved they can win general election majorities at a previous election rarely ends well for the party concerned
    This implies that the Tories lost the 2005 General Election due to some kind of backlash against the removal of Thatcher 15 years previously, and 2019 was all about a long gone, latterly somewhat unpopular Labour PM. It's all just your usual absolute rubbish.

    The fact is, parties who have been in for a while tend to become unpopular, stale, and light on policy ideas. They often try to refresh themselves by changing leader, and sometimes it works in a fashion as with Major in 1992 or Johnson in 2019. But you can't stay in office forever, and eventually you lose. It can be fairly hard to get back quickly when you lose, but eventually you do. It's just the pendulum, and you simply need to try to eke out wins where you can and not lose too badly when you lose.
    Hey, it’s an improvement.
    At least HYUFD didn’t call it “treason” this time.

    On the other hand, if there were a obvious replacement, I suspect he’d be solidly behind them at this point, so he does have half a point.
    Even if he is yet to accept that Boris is so far beyond damaged goods that even the alternative lacklustre talent on offer would be some kind of improvement.
    The most pertinent point about Major, it seems to me, is that no-one rated him as a contender before he got the job, no-one rated him as a political campaigner after he got the job, and yet he won the next election against the odds with an historic tally of votes.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,678
    ...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,531
    Shows some confidence in their position - Zelensky visited the Sievierodonetsk salient yesterday.

    https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1533619320093388800
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,531
    More cheerfully, some very exciting results for a targeted colorectal cancer therapy.
    https://www.statnews.com/2022/06/05/with-the-right-molecular-signal-a-cancer-drug-works-in-every-patient/

    AZN also reported some very good results for some breast cancers this weekend.

    The prospects for treatment seem to be improving quite rapidly as better differential genetic diagnosis allows therapies targeted to particular variants of the disease.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,542
    Nigelb said:

    More cheerfully, some very exciting results for a targeted colorectal cancer therapy.
    https://www.statnews.com/2022/06/05/with-the-right-molecular-signal-a-cancer-drug-works-in-every-patient/

    AZN also reported some very good results for some breast cancers this weekend.

    The prospects for treatment seem to be improving quite rapidly as better differential genetic diagnosis allows therapies targeted to particular variants of the disease.

    Looks very promising, doesn't it.

    Trouble is, these things get yo be pricey! Not expensive, bearing in mind the development costs and the overall benefit, but dose for dose 'expensive'.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,175
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    Flatlander said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    He is still not at risk of losing.

    There would be leaked polling showing somebody else doing better. There isn't any because nobody else would - and that is why he is safe IMHO

    Rotting the whole party by keeping Boris past his use by date might lose them two elections instead of one.

    I'm not sure an immediate bounce is that relevant.
    Yet after the Tories removed Thatcher they lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections and after Labour effectively forced out Blair in 1997 they lost all 4 of the following general elections.

    Removing leaders who have proved they can win general election majorities at a previous election rarely ends well for the party concerned
    This implies that the Tories lost the 2005 General Election due to some kind of backlash against the removal of Thatcher 15 years previously, and 2019 was all about a long gone, latterly somewhat unpopular Labour PM. It's all just your usual absolute rubbish.

    The fact is, parties who have been in for a while tend to become unpopular, stale, and light on policy ideas. They often try to refresh themselves by changing leader, and sometimes it works in a fashion as with Major in 1992 or Johnson in 2019. But you can't stay in office forever, and eventually you lose. It can be fairly hard to get back quickly when you lose, but eventually you do. It's just the pendulum, and you simply need to try to eke out wins where you can and not lose too badly when you lose.
    Hey, it’s an improvement.
    At least HYUFD didn’t call it “treason” this time.

    On the other hand, if there were a obvious replacement, I suspect he’d be solidly behind them at this point, so he does have half a point.
    Even if he is yet to accept that Boris is so far beyond damaged goods that even the alternative lacklustre talent on offer would be some kind of improvement.
    The most pertinent point about Major, it seems to me, is that no-one rated him as a contender before he got the job, no-one rated him as a political campaigner after he got the job, and yet he won the next election against the odds with an historic tally of votes.
    After which everyone went back to not rating him again.

    Major was precisely loyal to a few close friends, and could talk from the cuff, but his political skills were otherwise limited to keeping his head down.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,531
    edited June 2022
    OldKingCole said:

    Nigelb said:

    More cheerfully, some very exciting results for a targeted colorectal cancer therapy.
    https://www.statnews.com/2022/06/05/with-the-right-molecular-signal-a-cancer-drug-works-in-every-patient/

    AZN also reported some very good results for some breast cancers this weekend.

    The prospects for treatment seem to be improving quite rapidly as better differential genetic diagnosis allows therapies targeted to particular variants of the disease.

    Looks very promising, doesn't it.

    Trouble is, these things get yo be pricey! Not expensive, bearing in mind the development costs and the overall benefit, but dose for dose 'expensive'.
    True - but targeted therapies will be used only in the subset of patients for which they are likely to be effective. And a complete cure (which appears possible in the case of the colorectal cancer treatment), would save an huge amount of additional treatment cost.

    One of the things our health system does very well, even by the best international standards, is assess the cost benefit of treatments before approving them.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,852
    Good morning, everyone.

    So it seems, but I'll believe there is such a vote when it's held.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,051
    Was it 7am or 8am it was announced with T May? Anyway I’ve got my first cup of tea in hand so am ready
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,659
    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    Flatlander said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    He is still not at risk of losing.

    There would be leaked polling showing somebody else doing better. There isn't any because nobody else would - and that is why he is safe IMHO

    Rotting the whole party by keeping Boris past his use by date might lose them two elections instead of one.

    I'm not sure an immediate bounce is that relevant.
    Yet after the Tories removed Thatcher they lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections and after Labour effectively forced out Blair in 1997 they lost all 4 of the following general elections.

    Removing leaders who have proved they can win general election majorities at a previous election rarely ends well for the party concerned
    This implies that the Tories lost the 2005 General Election due to some kind of backlash against the removal of Thatcher 15 years previously, and 2019 was all about a long gone, latterly somewhat unpopular Labour PM. It's all just your usual absolute rubbish.

    The fact is, parties who have been in for a while tend to become unpopular, stale, and light on policy ideas. They often try to refresh themselves by changing leader, and sometimes it works in a fashion as with Major in 1992 or Johnson in 2019. But you can't stay in office forever, and eventually you lose. It can be fairly hard to get back quickly when you lose, but eventually you do. It's just the pendulum, and you simply need to try to eke out wins where you can and not lose too badly when you lose.
    Hey, it’s an improvement.
    At least HYUFD didn’t call it “treason” this time.

    On the other hand, if there were a obvious replacement, I suspect he’d be solidly behind them at this point, so he does have half a point.
    Even if he is yet to accept that Boris is so far beyond damaged goods that even the alternative lacklustre talent on offer would be some kind of improvement.
    The most pertinent point about Major, it seems to me, is that no-one rated him as a contender before he got the job, no-one rated him as a political campaigner after he got the job, and yet he won the next election against the odds with an historic tally of votes.
    After which everyone went back to not rating him again.

    Major was precisely loyal to a few close friends, and could talk from the cuff, but his political skills were otherwise limited to keeping his head down.
    With his colleagues, perhaps, but then that’s as much a comment on them. With the people during the election he did suprisingly well.

    I had a close friend who worked for Major at the time (as a minister before he got the top job), who used to describe him as utterly brilliant - the most impressive politician he had ever worked with. We used to take the piss out of him at the time for this apparently misplaced adulation - but my friend has generally good judgement and certainly he wasn’t surprised when Major came out on top.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,659
    BBC sources inside the Tories saying the leadership vote announcement is imminent.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,542
    moonshine said:

    Was it 7am or 8am it was announced with T May? Anyway I’ve got my first cup of tea in hand so am ready

    Wonder if there's any chance of her standing. After all, many were surprised when she returned to Parliament in 2019.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,175
    IanB2 said:

    BBC sources inside the Tories saying the leadership vote announcement is imminent.

    Link?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,111
    moonshine said:

    Was it 7am or 8am it was announced with T May? Anyway I’ve got my first cup of tea in hand so am ready

    Around 7am as I was on the train to work at the time.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,175
    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    Flatlander said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    He is still not at risk of losing.

    There would be leaked polling showing somebody else doing better. There isn't any because nobody else would - and that is why he is safe IMHO

    Rotting the whole party by keeping Boris past his use by date might lose them two elections instead of one.

    I'm not sure an immediate bounce is that relevant.
    Yet after the Tories removed Thatcher they lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections and after Labour effectively forced out Blair in 1997 they lost all 4 of the following general elections.

    Removing leaders who have proved they can win general election majorities at a previous election rarely ends well for the party concerned
    This implies that the Tories lost the 2005 General Election due to some kind of backlash against the removal of Thatcher 15 years previously, and 2019 was all about a long gone, latterly somewhat unpopular Labour PM. It's all just your usual absolute rubbish.

    The fact is, parties who have been in for a while tend to become unpopular, stale, and light on policy ideas. They often try to refresh themselves by changing leader, and sometimes it works in a fashion as with Major in 1992 or Johnson in 2019. But you can't stay in office forever, and eventually you lose. It can be fairly hard to get back quickly when you lose, but eventually you do. It's just the pendulum, and you simply need to try to eke out wins where you can and not lose too badly when you lose.
    Hey, it’s an improvement.
    At least HYUFD didn’t call it “treason” this time.

    On the other hand, if there were a obvious replacement, I suspect he’d be solidly behind them at this point, so he does have half a point.
    Even if he is yet to accept that Boris is so far beyond damaged goods that even the alternative lacklustre talent on offer would be some kind of improvement.
    The most pertinent point about Major, it seems to me, is that no-one rated him as a contender before he got the job, no-one rated him as a political campaigner after he got the job, and yet he won the next election against the odds with an historic tally of votes.
    After which everyone went back to not rating him again.

    Major was precisely loyal to a few close friends, and could talk from the cuff, but his political skills were otherwise limited to keeping his head down.
    With his colleagues, perhaps, but then that’s as much a comment on them. With the people during the election he did suprisingly well.

    I had a close friend who worked for Major at the time (as a minister before he got the top job), who used to describe him as utterly brilliant - the most impressive politician he had ever worked with. We used to take the piss out of him at the time for this apparently misplaced adulation - but my friend has generally good judgement and certainly he wasn’t surprised when Major came out on top.
    Yes, he could be very relatable on a personal basis (I've met Major too and found the same) but it's a different gig being Prime Minister; fundamentally it means you have to find a way to lead your party, however disagreeable you find your colleagues.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,789
    Good morning! Another day, another step towards Gilead. Ohio GOP have passed a state law that mandates the sexual assault of 10 year old girls: https://twitter.com/polevaultpower/status/1533263117911613440

    Surely the only humane solution to the "everyone is trans" woke disaster is simply to ban female sport. Its what God would want...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    BREAKING: A confidence vote in Boris Johnson is set to be announced this morning, I understand.

    Sir Graham Brady is expected to make a statement to camera around 8am confirming that the threshold of 54 letters has been met, I'm told.

    https://twitter.com/los_fisher/status/1533690174990860288
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC sources inside the Tories saying the leadership vote announcement is imminent.

    Link?
    I heard it on R4 as Political Correspondent was being interviewed and received a text from “rebel sources”.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,034
    edited June 2022
    CarlottaVance said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC sources inside the Tories saying the leadership vote announcement is imminent.

    Link?
    I heard it on R4 as Political Correspondent was being interviewed and received a text from “rebel sources”.
    If it’s a Tory MP presumably it was Poe da Moron?

    I hope they’re right though.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,717
    Did Sir Graham travel down to London yesterday, is any blockage at Watford Junction to be regarded as suspicious, or is he to announce from Altrincham?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,789
    On topic, the ideal scenario:
    1. Vote is called for Wednesday
    2. A 48 hour blue on blue political frenzy. Heavyweight intellects like Dorries appear drunk on Channel 4 News to call those opposed traitors
    3. Johnson wins the vote by 52% to 48%
    4. An open-ended blue on blue political frenzy begins. Johnson reacts by purging his cabinet of lightweights and traitors. Promotes Dorries to Chancellor. Absolute loyalty the only consideration
    5. "We all need to move on" is met with open laughter in news interviews as the pile on intensifies
    6. Tories lose both by-elections
    7. Patel holds a press conference where they announce they will bring back hanging. Complete with her smirking next to a noose.
    8. Tory MPs find they are the ones being booed on the streets, not just the prime minister. Justice Secretary Lee Anderson - whilst being booed during the interview - says there is no booing and those saying there is are woke extremists

    etc etc etc
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,034
    Pro_Rata said:

    Did Sir Graham travel down to London yesterday, is any blockage at Watford Junction to be regarded as suspicious, or is he to announce from Altrincham?

    If he does, will Johnson be for Sale?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,717
    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Did Sir Graham travel down to London yesterday, is any blockage at Watford Junction to be regarded as suspicious, or is he to announce from Altrincham?

    If he does, will Johnson be for Sale?
    All depends on the size of his Crewe.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Sir Roger Gale R4 saying he’s hearing same rumours but has no inside knowledge - Sir Graham Brady keeping his counsel.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,699
    Andy_JS said:

    "Boris Johnson’s allies concede Tory rebels close to triggering no-confidence vote" (via G search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/c7480de9-323a-410b-889b-dd24bbee593d

    The sentiment has been seriously anti-Boris in the last 72 hours. Hard to imagine anyone has been persuaded to stay their hand. Much easier to imagine seeing the PM booed so visibly in the public eye has convinced some waverers to finally put in their letter.

    I stand by my prediction made a while ago that there will be a VONC - and that Boris's premiership will cease this week.

    It will be quite the week for domestic politics. Maybe Durham police could add to the chaos too....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,034
    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Did Sir Graham travel down to London yesterday, is any blockage at Watford Junction to be regarded as suspicious, or is he to announce from Altrincham?

    If he does, will Johnson be for Sale?
    All depends on the size of his Crewe.
    None, they're on strike this morning.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,618
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on Russian social media attitudes to the war.

    In the past few days, I started sensing a certain change in the moods of comms I'm reading in various Russian sources while search for translation material….
    https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1533505067881533441

    Good news, that doubt about the operation war is starting to creep into Russian social media circles. It’ll be a while before it goes mainstream, but good to see the cracks starting to appear. Some dissent at home for Putin would be a good distraction for the Ukranians.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,428
    .
    RochdalePioneers said:

    On topic, the ideal scenario:
    1. Vote is called for Wednesday
    2. A 48 hour blue on blue political frenzy. Heavyweight intellects like Dorries appear drunk on Channel 4 News to call those opposed traitors
    3. Johnson wins the vote by 52% to 48%
    4. An open-ended blue on blue political frenzy begins. Johnson reacts by purging his cabinet of lightweights and traitors. Promotes Dorries to Chancellor. Absolute loyalty the only consideration
    5. "We all need to move on" is met with open laughter in news interviews as the pile on intensifies
    6. Tories lose both by-elections
    7. Patel holds a press conference where they announce they will bring back hanging. Complete with her smirking next to a noose.
    8. Tory MPs find they are the ones being booed on the streets, not just the prime minister. Justice Secretary Lee Anderson - whilst being booed during the interview - says there is no booing and those saying there is are woke extremists

    etc etc etc

    9. Numerous PB headers with graphs from Betfair and screenshots from Smarkets.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,175
    CarlottaVance said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC sources inside the Tories saying the leadership vote announcement is imminent.

    Link?
    I heard it on R4 as Political Correspondent was being interviewed and received a text from “rebel sources”.
    In that case, I'd wait for Brady.

    Rebels will have their own numbers but they will be inflated numbers.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,618
    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Did Sir Graham travel down to London yesterday, is any blockage at Watford Junction to be regarded as suspicious, or is he to announce from Altrincham?

    If he does, will Johnson be for Sale?
    All depends on the size of his Crewe.
    None, they're on strike this morning.
    At what point do the RMT realise, that most of the City is now set up to be able to work from home on strike days, and that genuine disruption to business is mostly limited to the coffee shops and paper sellers?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,428
    If Boris is felled, will we get to see the Lulu Lytle wallpaper and sofa in Number 10 or will Carrie sneak it into the removal van? I suppose it belongs to Boris, if he paid for it (at the third attempt). And all those paintings of buses that Boris was certainly not lying about.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,034
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Did Sir Graham travel down to London yesterday, is any blockage at Watford Junction to be regarded as suspicious, or is he to announce from Altrincham?

    If he does, will Johnson be for Sale?
    All depends on the size of his Crewe.
    None, they're on strike this morning.
    At what point do the RMT realise, that most of the City is now set up to be able to work from home on strike days, and that genuine disruption to business is mostly limited to the coffee shops and paper sellers?
    Probably never, because they're not very sensible.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,175
    MarqueeMark said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Boris Johnson’s allies concede Tory rebels close to triggering no-confidence vote" (via G search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/c7480de9-323a-410b-889b-dd24bbee593d

    The sentiment has been seriously anti-Boris in the last 72 hours. Hard to imagine anyone has been persuaded to stay their hand. Much easier to imagine seeing the PM booed so visibly in the public eye has convinced some waverers to finally put in their letter.

    I stand by my prediction made a while ago that there will be a VONC - and that Boris's premiership will cease this week.

    It will be quite the week for domestic politics. Maybe Durham police could add to the chaos too....
    The worst scenario (but unfortunately quite a likely one) is that there is a VONC but Boris survives by, say, 200 to 160 votes.

    That would be damage the whole party because it would tarnish the whole Conservative brand with Boris's failings.

    What would it take for you to evict him? Etc.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,789
    MarqueeMark said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Boris Johnson’s allies concede Tory rebels close to triggering no-confidence vote" (via G search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/c7480de9-323a-410b-889b-dd24bbee593d

    The sentiment has been seriously anti-Boris in the last 72 hours. Hard to imagine anyone has been persuaded to stay their hand. Much easier to imagine seeing the PM booed so visibly in the public eye has convinced some waverers to finally put in their letter.

    I stand by my prediction made a while ago that there will be a VONC - and that Boris's premiership will cease this week.

    It will be quite the week for domestic politics. Maybe Durham police could add to the chaos too....
    A big week for Prime Minister Dominic Raab.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,051
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Did Sir Graham travel down to London yesterday, is any blockage at Watford Junction to be regarded as suspicious, or is he to announce from Altrincham?

    If he does, will Johnson be for Sale?
    All depends on the size of his Crewe.
    None, they're on strike this morning.
    At what point do the RMT realise, that most of the City is now set up to be able to work from home on strike days, and that genuine disruption to business is mostly limited to the coffee shops and paper sellers?
    Probably never, because they're not very sensible.
    I don’t think they care about that one way or another. It’s surely more that every strike day TfL’s financial hole gets even larger putting pressure on them to settle.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,034
    moonshine said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Did Sir Graham travel down to London yesterday, is any blockage at Watford Junction to be regarded as suspicious, or is he to announce from Altrincham?

    If he does, will Johnson be for Sale?
    All depends on the size of his Crewe.
    None, they're on strike this morning.
    At what point do the RMT realise, that most of the City is now set up to be able to work from home on strike days, and that genuine disruption to business is mostly limited to the coffee shops and paper sellers?
    Probably never, because they're not very sensible.
    I don’t think they care about that one way or another. It’s surely more that every strike day TfL’s financial hole gets even larger putting pressure on them to settle.
    And puts more pressure on them to explore automation.

    Geese and golden eggs spring to mind.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,852
    Mr. Sandpit, do they care?

    Such businesses are already struggling and will be desperate for any strike action to end swiftly, putting pressure on the Government to fling more money at the RMT.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,034
    RochdalePioneers said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Boris Johnson’s allies concede Tory rebels close to triggering no-confidence vote" (via G search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/c7480de9-323a-410b-889b-dd24bbee593d

    The sentiment has been seriously anti-Boris in the last 72 hours. Hard to imagine anyone has been persuaded to stay their hand. Much easier to imagine seeing the PM booed so visibly in the public eye has convinced some waverers to finally put in their letter.

    I stand by my prediction made a while ago that there will be a VONC - and that Boris's premiership will cease this week.

    It will be quite the week for domestic politics. Maybe Durham police could add to the chaos too....
    A big week for Prime Minister Dominic Raab.
    Aaaargh.

    Save Big Dog!!!
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,717
    RochdalePioneers said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Boris Johnson’s allies concede Tory rebels close to triggering no-confidence vote" (via G search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/c7480de9-323a-410b-889b-dd24bbee593d

    The sentiment has been seriously anti-Boris in the last 72 hours. Hard to imagine anyone has been persuaded to stay their hand. Much easier to imagine seeing the PM booed so visibly in the public eye has convinced some waverers to finally put in their letter.

    I stand by my prediction made a while ago that there will be a VONC - and that Boris's premiership will cease this week.

    It will be quite the week for domestic politics. Maybe Durham police could add to the chaos too....
    A big week for Prime Minister Dominic Raab.
    Boris and the family will not have organised somewhere to doss. To me that's a big determinant of whether, and for how long, Boris serves in the interim.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,759
    Casino_Royale said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Boris Johnson’s allies concede Tory rebels close to triggering no-confidence vote" (via G search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/c7480de9-323a-410b-889b-dd24bbee593d

    The sentiment has been seriously anti-Boris in the last 72 hours. Hard to imagine anyone has been persuaded to stay their hand. Much easier to imagine seeing the PM booed so visibly in the public eye has convinced some waverers to finally put in their letter.

    I stand by my prediction made a while ago that there will be a VONC - and that Boris's premiership will cease this week.

    It will be quite the week for domestic politics. Maybe Durham police could add to the chaos too....
    The worst scenario (but unfortunately quite a likely one) is that there is a VONC but Boris survives by, say, 200 to 160 votes.

    That would be damage the whole party because it would tarnish the whole Conservative brand with Boris's failings.

    What would it take for you to evict him? Etc.
    Yeah, if I was a Tory MP concerned mainly about my job I don't think I'd send the letter in, but once the contest was on I'd vote to rip the bandage off.

    There's no "party shows support and puts the matter behind them" option here because you know there will be a load more scandals coming to light by this time next year.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,789
    Pro_Rata said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Boris Johnson’s allies concede Tory rebels close to triggering no-confidence vote" (via G search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/c7480de9-323a-410b-889b-dd24bbee593d

    The sentiment has been seriously anti-Boris in the last 72 hours. Hard to imagine anyone has been persuaded to stay their hand. Much easier to imagine seeing the PM booed so visibly in the public eye has convinced some waverers to finally put in their letter.

    I stand by my prediction made a while ago that there will be a VONC - and that Boris's premiership will cease this week.

    It will be quite the week for domestic politics. Maybe Durham police could add to the chaos too....
    A big week for Prime Minister Dominic Raab.
    Boris and the family will not have organised somewhere to doss. To me that's a big determinant of whether, and for how long, Boris serves in the interim.
    I believe Carrie has already organised somewhere to doss.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,717
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Boris Johnson’s allies concede Tory rebels close to triggering no-confidence vote" (via G search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/c7480de9-323a-410b-889b-dd24bbee593d

    The sentiment has been seriously anti-Boris in the last 72 hours. Hard to imagine anyone has been persuaded to stay their hand. Much easier to imagine seeing the PM booed so visibly in the public eye has convinced some waverers to finally put in their letter.

    I stand by my prediction made a while ago that there will be a VONC - and that Boris's premiership will cease this week.

    It will be quite the week for domestic politics. Maybe Durham police could add to the chaos too....
    A big week for Prime Minister Dominic Raab.
    Boris and the family will not have organised somewhere to doss. To me that's a big determinant of whether, and for how long, Boris serves in the interim.
    I believe Carrie has already organised somewhere to doss.
    But is ex PM Boris part of her plan!!
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,339
    edmundintokyo said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Boris Johnson’s allies concede Tory rebels close to triggering no-confidence vote" (via G search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/c7480de9-323a-410b-889b-dd24bbee593d

    The sentiment has been seriously anti-Boris in the last 72 hours. Hard to imagine anyone has been persuaded to stay their hand. Much easier to imagine seeing the PM booed so visibly in the public eye has convinced some waverers to finally put in their letter.

    I stand by my prediction made a while ago that there will be a VONC - and that Boris's premiership will cease this week.

    It will be quite the week for domestic politics. Maybe Durham police could add to the chaos too....
    The worst scenario (but unfortunately quite a likely one) is that there is a VONC but Boris survives by, say, 200 to 160 votes.

    That would be damage the whole party because it would tarnish the whole Conservative brand with Boris's failings.

    What would it take for you to evict him? Etc.
    Yeah, if I was a Tory MP concerned mainly about my job I don't think I'd send the letter in, but once the contest was on I'd vote to rip the bandage off.

    There's no "party shows support and puts the matter behind them" option here because you know there will be a load more scandals coming to light by this time next year.
    That’s why I see this as the end. I honestly can’t see how he wins the VONC. Where’s he going to get 180 + votes from?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,815
    Casino_Royale said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Boris Johnson’s allies concede Tory rebels close to triggering no-confidence vote" (via G search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/c7480de9-323a-410b-889b-dd24bbee593d

    The sentiment has been seriously anti-Boris in the last 72 hours. Hard to imagine anyone has been persuaded to stay their hand. Much easier to imagine seeing the PM booed so visibly in the public eye has convinced some waverers to finally put in their letter.

    I stand by my prediction made a while ago that there will be a VONC - and that Boris's premiership will cease this week.

    It will be quite the week for domestic politics. Maybe Durham police could add to the chaos too....
    The worst scenario (but unfortunately quite a likely one) is that there is a VONC but Boris survives by, say, 200 to 160 votes.

    That would be damage the whole party because it would tarnish the whole Conservative brand with Boris's failings.

    What would it take for you to evict him? Etc.
    The 52:48 outcome would be 187 to 172.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,618
    Pro_Rata said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Boris Johnson’s allies concede Tory rebels close to triggering no-confidence vote" (via G search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/c7480de9-323a-410b-889b-dd24bbee593d

    The sentiment has been seriously anti-Boris in the last 72 hours. Hard to imagine anyone has been persuaded to stay their hand. Much easier to imagine seeing the PM booed so visibly in the public eye has convinced some waverers to finally put in their letter.

    I stand by my prediction made a while ago that there will be a VONC - and that Boris's premiership will cease this week.

    It will be quite the week for domestic politics. Maybe Durham police could add to the chaos too....
    A big week for Prime Minister Dominic Raab.
    Boris and the family will not have organised somewhere to doss. To me that's a big determinant of whether, and for how long, Boris serves in the interim.
    I believe Carrie has already organised somewhere to doss.
    But is ex PM Boris part of her plan!!
    Surely she waits until he’s a seriously rich man, to walk out on him? He’s barely paid off the last divorce, and struggles to keep Carrie in wallpaper from his paltry £150k salary as a public official. Much better to wait for the seven-figure book deal and the US speaking tour, before taking him to the cleaners?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,542
    edited June 2022
    ThomasNashe said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Boris Johnson’s allies concede Tory rebels close to triggering no-confidence vote" (via G search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/c7480de9-323a-410b-889b-dd24bbee593d

    The sentiment has been seriously anti-Boris in the last 72 hours. Hard to imagine anyone has been persuaded to stay their hand. Much easier to imagine seeing the PM booed so visibly in the public eye has convinced some waverers to finally put in their letter.

    I stand by my prediction made a while ago that there will be a VONC - and that Boris's premiership will cease this week.

    It will be quite the week for domestic politics. Maybe Durham police could add to the chaos too....
    The worst scenario (but unfortunately quite a likely one) is that there is a VONC but Boris survives by, say, 200 to 160 votes.

    That would be damage the whole party because it would tarnish the whole Conservative brand with Boris's failings.

    What would it take for you to evict him? Etc.
    Yeah, if I was a Tory MP concerned mainly about my job I don't think I'd send the letter in, but once the contest was on I'd vote to rip the bandage off.

    There's no "party shows support and puts the matter behind them" option here because you know there will be a load more scandals coming to light by this time next year.
    That’s why I see this as the end. I honestly can’t see how he wins the VONC. Where’s he going to get 180 + votes from?
    Largely the 'payroll vote', I suggest. I think that, like May, he'll win, but not by much.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,531
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Good morning! Another day, another step towards Gilead. Ohio GOP have passed a state law that mandates the sexual assault of 10 year old girls: https://twitter.com/polevaultpower/status/1533263117911613440

    Surely the only humane solution to the "everyone is trans" woke disaster is simply to ban female sport. Its what God would want...

    It's only passed the House - there's a fair chance it will never make it to the statute book.
    But it is a demonstration of what the backlash against social acceptance of transgender individuals might involve.

    The truly perverse thing about the proposed law is that it allows any one to demand an invasive sex test of any girl involved in school or college sport - and protects that person from any legal consequences.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,391
    edited June 2022
    Hearing that there may well be some resignations today and tomorrow to ensure we get a vote.

    Keep yer eyes on Penny Mordaunt, she may go.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,789
    Pro_Rata said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Boris Johnson’s allies concede Tory rebels close to triggering no-confidence vote" (via G search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/c7480de9-323a-410b-889b-dd24bbee593d

    The sentiment has been seriously anti-Boris in the last 72 hours. Hard to imagine anyone has been persuaded to stay their hand. Much easier to imagine seeing the PM booed so visibly in the public eye has convinced some waverers to finally put in their letter.

    I stand by my prediction made a while ago that there will be a VONC - and that Boris's premiership will cease this week.

    It will be quite the week for domestic politics. Maybe Durham police could add to the chaos too....
    A big week for Prime Minister Dominic Raab.
    Boris and the family will not have organised somewhere to doss. To me that's a big determinant of whether, and for how long, Boris serves in the interim.
    I believe Carrie has already organised somewhere to doss.
    But is ex PM Boris part of her plan!!
    Going off the awks body language of their forced together public appearances this weekend, PM Boris isn't part of her plan, never mind ex PM.

    My point was simple - Boris wants to be loved. Thinks it is his divine right as world king. Why sit in humiliation having been ousted when you can flounce off to a donor's villa?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,699
    RochdalePioneers said:

    On topic, the ideal scenario:
    1. Vote is called for Wednesday
    2. A 48 hour blue on blue political frenzy. Heavyweight intellects like Dorries appear drunk on Channel 4 News to call those opposed traitors
    3. Johnson wins the vote by 52% to 48%
    4. An open-ended blue on blue political frenzy begins. Johnson reacts by purging his cabinet of lightweights and traitors. Promotes Dorries to Chancellor. Absolute loyalty the only consideration
    5. "We all need to move on" is met with open laughter in news interviews as the pile on intensifies
    6. Tories lose both by-elections
    7. Patel holds a press conference where they announce they will bring back hanging. Complete with her smirking next to a noose.
    8. Tory MPs find they are the ones being booed on the streets, not just the prime minister. Justice Secretary Lee Anderson - whilst being booed during the interview - says there is no booing and those saying there is are woke extremists

    etc etc etc

    That scenario would be nailed on - if OGH were on holiday this week...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,428
    edited June 2022
    JosiasJessop said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Did Sir Graham travel down to London yesterday, is any blockage at Watford Junction to be regarded as suspicious, or is he to announce from Altrincham?

    If he does, will Johnson be for Sale?
    All depends on the size of his Crewe.
    None, they're on strike this morning.
    At what point do the RMT realise, that most of the City is now set up to be able to work from home on strike days, and that genuine disruption to business is mostly limited to the coffee shops and paper sellers?
    I can understand why the workers want to strike at this time of extreme pressure on prices.

    But the timing of tis strike, with a rail system that needs to attract people back to work, is awful.

    And add in the way some of the RMT's leadership support pro-Russian separatists in the Ukrainian war, and the timing is really suspicious.

    I want a strong, vibrant public transport system in the UK, with rail as a major component. The RMT want to destroy the system - in the same way manner their leaders' mates have destroyed eastern Ukraine.
    This is getting a bit reds under the bed, unless you think the Kremlin thinks long-range missiles are shipped to Ukraine via Bank station.

    ETA the strike appears to be a continuation of the dispute over job cuts and pensions rather than wages.
    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/tube-strike-begins-today-with-passengers-warned-stations-will-be-closed/ar-AAY7nL4
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    If Johnson does go - and I’ll believe it when I see it - we are still left with a governing party that has demonstrated it has no attachment to Parliamentary democracy or the rule of law. None of the potential candidates to replace him is going to change that.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,789
    Nigelb said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Good morning! Another day, another step towards Gilead. Ohio GOP have passed a state law that mandates the sexual assault of 10 year old girls: https://twitter.com/polevaultpower/status/1533263117911613440

    Surely the only humane solution to the "everyone is trans" woke disaster is simply to ban female sport. Its what God would want...

    It's only passed the House - there's a fair chance it will never make it to the statute book.
    But it is a demonstration of what the backlash against social acceptance of transgender individuals might involve.

    The truly perverse thing about the proposed law is that it allows any one to demand an invasive sex test of any girl involved in school or college sport - and protects that person from any legal consequences.
    Its typical of the mindset of these people. I need my gun to protect me against criminals and the government. It will be Other People's children shot to death in their classroom because they are too stupid to go to a school with security. We need invasive sexual assaults of 10 year old girls because communist woke trans lizards are trying to impurify America. It will be Other People's children being assaulted and traumatised.

    That anyone can propose such an abomination - never mind vote for it - shows just how sick they are as a society. I don't think Margaret Attwood wrote the Handmaid's Tale as a manual for a better America, but so many Americans seem to treat it that way.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,531
    Pro_Rata said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Boris Johnson’s allies concede Tory rebels close to triggering no-confidence vote" (via G search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/c7480de9-323a-410b-889b-dd24bbee593d

    The sentiment has been seriously anti-Boris in the last 72 hours. Hard to imagine anyone has been persuaded to stay their hand. Much easier to imagine seeing the PM booed so visibly in the public eye has convinced some waverers to finally put in their letter.

    I stand by my prediction made a while ago that there will be a VONC - and that Boris's premiership will cease this week.

    It will be quite the week for domestic politics. Maybe Durham police could add to the chaos too....
    A big week for Prime Minister Dominic Raab.
    Boris and the family will not have organised somewhere to doss. To me that's a big determinant of whether, and for how long, Boris serves in the interim.
    Couldn't a friend - Zac Goldsmith, say - put them up ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,175
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Did Sir Graham travel down to London yesterday, is any blockage at Watford Junction to be regarded as suspicious, or is he to announce from Altrincham?

    If he does, will Johnson be for Sale?
    All depends on the size of his Crewe.
    None, they're on strike this morning.
    At what point do the RMT realise, that most of the City is now set up to be able to work from home on strike days, and that genuine disruption to business is mostly limited to the coffee shops and paper sellers?
    The RMT will only succeed in pushing the railways further into crisis, threatening the viability of the wider network, but dinosaurs gonna dinosaur.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,542
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Boris Johnson’s allies concede Tory rebels close to triggering no-confidence vote" (via G search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/c7480de9-323a-410b-889b-dd24bbee593d

    The sentiment has been seriously anti-Boris in the last 72 hours. Hard to imagine anyone has been persuaded to stay their hand. Much easier to imagine seeing the PM booed so visibly in the public eye has convinced some waverers to finally put in their letter.

    I stand by my prediction made a while ago that there will be a VONC - and that Boris's premiership will cease this week.

    It will be quite the week for domestic politics. Maybe Durham police could add to the chaos too....
    A big week for Prime Minister Dominic Raab.
    Boris and the family will not have organised somewhere to doss. To me that's a big determinant of whether, and for how long, Boris serves in the interim.
    I believe Carrie has already organised somewhere to doss.
    But is ex PM Boris part of her plan!!
    Going off the awks body language of their forced together public appearances this weekend, PM Boris isn't part of her plan, never mind ex PM.

    My point was simple - Boris wants to be loved. Thinks it is his divine right as world king. Why sit in humiliation having been ousted when you can flounce off to a donor's villa?
    If he's not PM, having been chucked out on his ear, who is going to 'donate' to him? What advantage would there be?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hearing that there may well be some resignations today and tomorrow to ensure we get a vote.

    Keep yer eyes on Penny Mordaunt, she may go.

    Is she running?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    edited June 2022
    Jesse Norman drops Boris: http://twitter.com/Jesse_Norman/status/1533699235417403393

    Absolute beast of a letter. He doesn’t hold back.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,175
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hearing that there may well be some resignations today and tomorrow to ensure we get a vote.

    Keep yer eyes on Penny Mordaunt, she may go.

    And she will run.

    I've topped up on her again this morning.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Nigelb said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Good morning! Another day, another step towards Gilead. Ohio GOP have passed a state law that mandates the sexual assault of 10 year old girls: https://twitter.com/polevaultpower/status/1533263117911613440

    Surely the only humane solution to the "everyone is trans" woke disaster is simply to ban female sport. Its what God would want...

    It's only passed the House - there's a fair chance it will never make it to the statute book.
    But it is a demonstration of what the backlash against social acceptance of transgender individuals might involve.

    The truly perverse thing about the proposed law is that it allows any one to demand an invasive sex test of any girl involved in school or college sport - and protects that person from any legal consequences.
    They only need 60% to veto override the govenor. So if they have 4 more votes the GOP house members can force it through.

    It passed 56-24 so lots of members didn't vote.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited June 2022
    Jesse Norman:

    I have supported Boris Johnson for 15 years, for the London Mayoralty and for PM. Very sadly, I have written to him to say I can no longer do so, for the reasons set out below.

    https://twitter.com/jesse_norman/status/1533699235417403393

    Worth reading the letter.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,120
    Ah, this is going to be one of those fascinating weeks.

    The problem Johnson has now is he can keep arguing for a reset, or focusing on “getting the job done”

    Yet I have absolutely no idea what his policy agenda is, and I simply don’t trust him. There’s the problem that the die hard Boris supporters refuse to confront. And to somehow equate Boris to Thatcher or Blair is ridiculous
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,531
    edmundintokyo said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Boris Johnson’s allies concede Tory rebels close to triggering no-confidence vote" (via G search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/c7480de9-323a-410b-889b-dd24bbee593d

    The sentiment has been seriously anti-Boris in the last 72 hours. Hard to imagine anyone has been persuaded to stay their hand. Much easier to imagine seeing the PM booed so visibly in the public eye has convinced some waverers to finally put in their letter.

    I stand by my prediction made a while ago that there will be a VONC - and that Boris's premiership will cease this week.

    It will be quite the week for domestic politics. Maybe Durham police could add to the chaos too....
    The worst scenario (but unfortunately quite a likely one) is that there is a VONC but Boris survives by, say, 200 to 160 votes.

    That would be damage the whole party because it would tarnish the whole Conservative brand with Boris's failings.

    What would it take for you to evict him? Etc.
    Yeah, if I was a Tory MP concerned mainly about my job I don't think I'd send the letter in, but once the contest was on I'd vote to rip the bandage off.

    There's no "party shows support and puts the matter behind them" option here because you know there will be a load more scandals coming to light by this time next year.
    There are distinct categories of Tory MPs concerned mainly about retaining their jobs, though.
    Only if I were one of those probably unemployable by any likely successor would I hold back a letter at this point.

    The argument that "it isn't time" doesn't hold much water - and it's the only one the Johnson spinners really have left.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,428
    Nigelb said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Boris Johnson’s allies concede Tory rebels close to triggering no-confidence vote" (via G search)

    https://www.ft.com/content/c7480de9-323a-410b-889b-dd24bbee593d

    The sentiment has been seriously anti-Boris in the last 72 hours. Hard to imagine anyone has been persuaded to stay their hand. Much easier to imagine seeing the PM booed so visibly in the public eye has convinced some waverers to finally put in their letter.

    I stand by my prediction made a while ago that there will be a VONC - and that Boris's premiership will cease this week.

    It will be quite the week for domestic politics. Maybe Durham police could add to the chaos too....
    A big week for Prime Minister Dominic Raab.
    Boris and the family will not have organised somewhere to doss. To me that's a big determinant of whether, and for how long, Boris serves in the interim.
    Couldn't a friend - Zac Goldsmith, say - put them up ?
    If Zac only has room for one, the Sunaks might offer to put Boris up in their Santa Monica pad.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited June 2022
    Casino_Royale said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    If Johnson does go - and I’ll believe it when I see it - we are still left with a governing party that has demonstrated it has no attachment to Parliamentary democracy or the rule of law. None of the potential candidates to replace him is going to change that.

    Lol. Getting the attack lines ready for phase two.
    Worried Tory MPs are going to shoot Labour’s biggest fox….

    Chris Mason R4 rebels saying vote is on.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,618
    Casino_Royale said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Did Sir Graham travel down to London yesterday, is any blockage at Watford Junction to be regarded as suspicious, or is he to announce from Altrincham?

    If he does, will Johnson be for Sale?
    All depends on the size of his Crewe.
    None, they're on strike this morning.
    At what point do the RMT realise, that most of the City is now set up to be able to work from home on strike days, and that genuine disruption to business is mostly limited to the coffee shops and paper sellers?
    The RMT will only succeed in pushing the railways further into crisis, threatening the viability of the wider network, but dinosaurs gonna dinosaur.
    It gives a great opportunity for a Conservative or independent to run for Mayor of London, on a platform of serious investment in autonomous Tube services.

    It’s a very difficult problem, given the ageing infrastructure, but it’s not completely unsolvable.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,391
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hearing that there may well be some resignations today and tomorrow to ensure we get a vote.

    Keep yer eyes on Penny Mordaunt, she may go.

    Is she running?
    She is.

    She's quite close to Andrea Leadsom, last week's announcement was confirmation to the hardcore Brexiteers that the plan to oust Boris Johnson isn't a Remainer plot.
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