The sentiment has been seriously anti-Boris in the last 72 hours. Hard to imagine anyone has been persuaded to stay their hand. Much easier to imagine seeing the PM booed so visibly in the public eye has convinced some waverers to finally put in their letter.
I stand by my prediction made a while ago that there will be a VONC - and that Boris's premiership will cease this week.
It will be quite the week for domestic politics. Maybe Durham police could add to the chaos too....
The worst scenario (but unfortunately quite a likely one) is that there is a VONC but Boris survives by, say, 200 to 160 votes.
That would be damage the whole party because it would tarnish the whole Conservative brand with Boris's failings.
What would it take for you to evict him? Etc.
Yeah, if I was a Tory MP concerned mainly about my job I don't think I'd send the letter in, but once the contest was on I'd vote to rip the bandage off.
There's no "party shows support and puts the matter behind them" option here because you know there will be a load more scandals coming to light by this time next year.
That’s why I see this as the end. I honestly can’t see how he wins the VONC. Where’s he going to get 180 + votes from?
There's a strong constituency of MPs who believe Boris has a clear mandate, that these are the usual mid-term blues, that anyone else couldn't hold the coalition together and it's part of a broader plot to betray Brexit. That's on top of a core loyalist and payroll vote. So he will get a fair few votes.
But, my reading of the runes is that this is far more like the IDS 2003 no confidence vote rather than the May 2018 no confidence vote so I expect it to be much closer.
The worst possible scenario for the Brexit Revolutionary Party is them having a VONC and then Boris Johnson winning the vote. Then they’re deep into Lame Duck territory.
It is also the most likely scenario.
I have not changed my assessment: Boris Johnson will lead his party at the next general election. Boris Johnson will lead his party to defeat at the next general election.
Did Sir Graham travel down to London yesterday, is any blockage at Watford Junction to be regarded as suspicious, or is he to announce from Altrincham?
If he does, will Johnson be for Sale?
All depends on the size of his Crewe.
None, they're on strike this morning.
At what point do the RMT realise, that most of the City is now set up to be able to work from home on strike days, and that genuine disruption to business is mostly limited to the coffee shops and paper sellers?
I can understand why the workers want to strike at this time of extreme pressure on prices.
But the timing of tis strike, with a rail system that needs to attract people back to work, is awful.
And add in the way some of the RMT's leadership support pro-Russian separatists in the Ukrainian war, and the timing is really suspicious.
I want a strong, vibrant public transport system in the UK, with rail as a major component. The RMT want to destroy the system - in the same way manner their leaders' mates have destroyed eastern Ukraine.
This is getting a bit reds under the bed, unless you think the Kremlin thinks long-range missiles are shipped to Ukraine via Bank station.
It's not 'reds under the beds'. It's the way the strike appears sus because the union's leadership chose to publicly associate itself with a topic that had zero to do with its business - and 'chose' a side which has proven to be fairly evil - as any look at what happened in the separatist states, or in the last 100 days - shows.
It makes the timing of this strike - which will cause the UK harm - really suspicious.
If Johnson does go - and I’ll believe it when I see it - we are still left with a governing party that has demonstrated it has no attachment to Parliamentary democracy or the rule of law. None of the potential candidates to replace him is going to change that.
Lol. Getting the attack lines ready for phase two.
Not really. I would actually like to be proved wrong. But very few Tories have opposed Johnson’s stifling of Parliament, making it harder to vote, ending the Electoral Commission’s independence, criminalising peaceful protest or moves to put the executive beyond judicial scrutiny, so I am not hopeful that the Orbanisation of the UK will end should he go.
The worst possible scenario for the Brexit Revolutionary Party is them having a VONC and then Boris Johnson winning the vote. Then they’re deep into Lame Duck territory.
It is also the most likely scenario.
I have not changed my assessment: Boris Johnson will lead his party at the next general election. Boris Johnson will lead his party to defeat at the next general election.
Yes, I think the oaf survives the VONC, and the whole farce continues.
Mr. Observer, by that rationale the Labour Party you support remains indelibly stained by the tenure of Corbyn.
He's a partisan Labour supporter who's fed up of being out of office after 12 years and now wants his team in power again. The hyperbole and superlatives about threats to democracy are part of that.
I have supported Boris Johnson for 15 years, for the London Mayoralty and for PM. Very sadly, I have written to him to say I can no longer do so, for the reasons set out below.
The Theresa May confidence vote was 200 to 117 - at a time after she’d lost her Parliamentary majority, and had proven several times to be utterly unable to enact her flagship piece of legislation.
I know it appears to be the contrarian view on here, but I still don’t think the rebels have 180 votes, even if they do have the 54 required for the challenge.
The worst possible scenario for the Brexit Revolutionary Party is them having a VONC and then Boris Johnson winning the vote. Then they’re deep into Lame Duck territory.
It is also the most likely scenario.
I have not changed my assessment: Boris Johnson will lead his party at the next general election. Boris Johnson will lead his party to defeat at the next general election.
The second part of your assessment being shared by Tory MPs is why the first part will not come to pass. And once you have reached that assessment as a Tory MP, then "If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well it were done quickly".
Mr. Observer, by that rationale the Labour Party you support remains indelibly stained by the tenure of Corbyn.
Corbyn is no longer a Labour MP. But, yes, Labour still has a long way to go to restore voters’ trust in the party. Let’s see if a new Tory leader revokes the measures that Johnson has put in place to erode our democracy. I would love it to happen, but as all viable candidates for the leadership backed them I can’t see it happening. I would love to be proved wrong, though.
If Johnson does go - and I’ll believe it when I see it - we are still left with a governing party that has demonstrated it has no attachment to Parliamentary democracy or the rule of law. None of the potential candidates to replace him is going to change that.
Lol. Getting the attack lines ready for phase two.
Worried Tory MPs are going to shoot Labour’s biggest fox….
Notable, though, that Wes Streeting (on R4 earlier) was every bit as vociferous as Roger Gale later on, and giving the same reason, that now was the time for Johnson to go, since none of the likely replacements were likely to be as bad as PM.
There is *still* a widespread but *mistaken* assumption that, should Johnson survive a vote of no confidence, he is safe for another year. Yet, thanks to those who sought to defenestrate his predecessor, we know that this is *not* in fact the case. Chapter and verse in this 🧵1/4
The worst possible scenario for the Brexit Revolutionary Party is them having a VONC and then Boris Johnson winning the vote. Then they’re deep into Lame Duck territory.
It is also the most likely scenario.
I have not changed my assessment: Boris Johnson will lead his party at the next general election. Boris Johnson will lead his party to defeat at the next general election.
Good morning
It does seem some of Boris's opponents are beginning to realise he may well be sacked and their response is he will survive and lead the party to defeat in 24
The one certain thing about the conservative party is their desire for power and over the coming weeks it will become obvious that is has not diminished as they remove labour's biggest electoral asset
The worst possible scenario for the Brexit Revolutionary Party is them having a VONC and then Boris Johnson winning the vote. Then they’re deep into Lame Duck territory.
It is also the most likely scenario.
I have not changed my assessment: Boris Johnson will lead his party at the next general election. Boris Johnson will lead his party to defeat at the next general election.
I disagree. There will be diehard Brexiteers who will fear for their project being 'indelibly stained'.
I have supported Boris Johnson for 15 years, for the London Mayoralty and for PM. Very sadly, I have written to him to say I can no longer do so, for the reasons set out below.
The Theresa May confidence vote was 200 to 117 - at a time after she’d lost her Parliamentary majority, and had proven several times to be utterly unable to enact her flagship piece of legislation.
I know it appears to be the contrarian view on here, but I still don’t think the rebels have 180 votes, even if they do have the 54 required for the challenge.
I think there are four scenarios -
1. No VoNC in 2022, which is still entirely possible, say 15% 2. VoNC, but won convincingly by Boris, which is reckon is the most likely outcome, 55%. 3. VoNC, which is won unconvincingly, which I would make a 25% chance. 4. And then you have Boris losing a VoNC, which is reckon is just a 5% chance
There is *still* a widespread but *mistaken* assumption that, should Johnson survive a vote of no confidence, he is safe for another year. Yet, thanks to those who sought to defenestrate his predecessor, we know that this is *not* in fact the case. Chapter and verse in this 🧵1/4
Did Sir Graham travel down to London yesterday, is any blockage at Watford Junction to be regarded as suspicious, or is he to announce from Altrincham?
If he does, will Johnson be for Sale?
All depends on the size of his Crewe.
None, they're on strike this morning.
At what point do the RMT realise, that most of the City is now set up to be able to work from home on strike days, and that genuine disruption to business is mostly limited to the coffee shops and paper sellers?
I can understand why the workers want to strike at this time of extreme pressure on prices.
But the timing of tis strike, with a rail system that needs to attract people back to work, is awful.
And add in the way some of the RMT's leadership support pro-Russian separatists in the Ukrainian war, and the timing is really suspicious.
I want a strong, vibrant public transport system in the UK, with rail as a major component. The RMT want to destroy the system - in the same way manner their leaders' mates have destroyed eastern Ukraine.
This is getting a bit reds under the bed, unless you think the Kremlin thinks long-range missiles are shipped to Ukraine via Bank station.
It's not 'reds under the beds'. It's the way the strike appears sus because the union's leadership chose to publicly associate itself with a topic that had zero to do with its business - and 'chose' a side which has proven to be fairly evil - as any look at what happened in the separatist states, or in the last 100 days - shows.
It makes the timing of this strike - which will cause the UK harm - really suspicious.
This dispute has been rumbling on for months and there was a strike ballot last December, two months before Russia invaded Ukraine. What union would not oppose job losses and pension cuts? There is no obvious link to the war in Ukraine either in timing or effect.
There is *still* a widespread but *mistaken* assumption that, should Johnson survive a vote of no confidence, he is safe for another year. Yet, thanks to those who sought to defenestrate his predecessor, we know that this is *not* in fact the case. Chapter and verse in this 🧵1/4
The worst possible scenario for the Brexit Revolutionary Party is them having a VONC and then Boris Johnson winning the vote. Then they’re deep into Lame Duck territory.
It is also the most likely scenario.
I have not changed my assessment: Boris Johnson will lead his party at the next general election. Boris Johnson will lead his party to defeat at the next general election.
Good morning
It does seem some of Boris's opponents are beginning to realise he may well be sacked and their response is he will survive and lead the party to defeat in 24
The one certain thing about the conservative party is their desire for power and over the coming weeks this will be obvious that is has not diminished as they remove labour's biggest electoral asset
May was worse than Cameron, Johnson was worse than anyone in modern history, quite possibly in all of history. Can the Tories find someone even more abysmal? Liz Truss would give it a go. Her apart, though, we may now be at rock bottom. However, beyond the attacks on democracy the next Tory leader still has to map out a path that keeps what are two very different parties together. That will take a hell of a lot of skill. Does any candidate posses it? I admit I know nothing about Penny Mordaunt, so maybe she is the one.
I think he will go simply because… I think he should go
That is to say: I like - or liked - Boris. I voted Leave. I am grateful for him delivering Brexit and saving us from a terrible 2nd vote. I am grateful for him crushing Corbyn forever. I had genuine hopes - however foolish - that he would be a good if not great PM. And I’ve resisted the clamour for his departure until now. I’m still suspicious of it’s motivations
But this Partygate stuff is not going away. The weekend showed it. He has no new ideas: the Norman letter is painfully accurate
There is no purpose served in him staying. So I believe he should go, and if he’s lost relatively loyal people like me then 🤷♂️
Never seen anything like the level of public anger over partygate. Tory MPs have spent a miserable weekend trying to defend the indefensible. Many have had enough.
I suspect that the RMT leadership have the same mindset as the NUM had under Scargill. They believe in their political views and don't understand others'. When you can make a case, the current circumstances are irrelevant.
Arthur wasn't bothered that it was summer, the coal stocks were high, the UDM wouldn't fall in line, and Mrs Thatcher was spoiling for a fight. It's always time to fight the good fight for political leaders. The question is always "Will they come out?"
From the point of view of the rank and file, strike action is often effective. But you have to trust your leaders.
The Theresa May confidence vote was 200 to 117 - at a time after she’d lost her Parliamentary majority, and had proven several times to be utterly unable to enact her flagship piece of legislation.
I know it appears to be the contrarian view on here, but I still don’t think the rebels have 180 votes, even if they do have the 54 required for the challenge.
I think there are four scenarios -
1. No VoNC in 2022, which is still entirely possible, say 15% 2. VoNC, but won convincingly by Boris, which is reckon is the most likely outcome, 55%. 3. VoNC, which is won unconvincingly, which I would make a 25% chance. 4. And then you have Boris losing a VoNC, which is reckon is just a 5% chance
So will you give me 10/1 on Boris losing a VONC before party conference ?
Can anyone argue with the letter from Jesse Norman , everything he says is true and the issues go well beyond partygate .
As a Labour supporter I know Johnson going isn’t the best thing for their chances but if Johnson stays until the next GE how much more damage will he do to the country and to the office of PM.
The Theresa May confidence vote was 200 to 117 - at a time after she’d lost her Parliamentary majority, and had proven several times to be utterly unable to enact her flagship piece of legislation.
I know it appears to be the contrarian view on here, but I still don’t think the rebels have 180 votes, even if they do have the 54 required for the challenge.
There does seem to be an element of projection in the predictions that Johnson is inevitably going to lose the VONC. The problem is still Brexit. The internal critics of Johnson, around whom in normal circumstances you might expect opposition to coalesce, are tainted by not being of the one true Brexit faith. This disrupts the normal process of creating confidence in an alternative future for the party.
There is also still no other policy difference around which opposition to Johnson might form. If the only advantage of defenestrating Johnson is to replace him with a better person, rather than better policy, then that process is more fraught when it isn't obvious who the successor will be.
It will be fascinating to see where the final tally ends up.
There is *still* a widespread but *mistaken* assumption that, should Johnson survive a vote of no confidence, he is safe for another year. Yet, thanks to those who sought to defenestrate his predecessor, we know that this is *not* in fact the case. Chapter and verse in this 🧵1/4
He is safe unless he resigns or the 1922 committee change the rules mid-term (unlikely).
Two former 1922 Chairmen: 'If MPs believe that the 12-month rule is an impediment to their proper function and responsibilities for the leadership of their Party it is quite within their right to change these provisions.'
For some Tory MPs, partygate just opens the door to wider concerns about everything from the NI protocol and the union to Rwanda, Channel 4, and “empty rhetoric” overtaking actual policy. Many complaints boil down to one core - it’s all “at odds with decent, proper conservatism” https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1533706339108675584
Can anyone argue with the letter from Jesse Norman , everything he says is true and the issues go well beyond partygate .
As a Labour supporter I know Johnson going isn’t the best thing for their chances but if Johnson stays until the next GE how much more damage will he do to the country and to the office of PM.
Exactly how I feel. You cannot want the best for this country and want Boris Johnson to remain as Prime Minister. That applies whatever party you support.
Did Sir Graham travel down to London yesterday, is any blockage at Watford Junction to be regarded as suspicious, or is he to announce from Altrincham?
If he does, will Johnson be for Sale?
All depends on the size of his Crewe.
None, they're on strike this morning.
At what point do the RMT realise, that most of the City is now set up to be able to work from home on strike days, and that genuine disruption to business is mostly limited to the coffee shops and paper sellers?
I can understand why the workers want to strike at this time of extreme pressure on prices.
But the timing of tis strike, with a rail system that needs to attract people back to work, is awful.
And add in the way some of the RMT's leadership support pro-Russian separatists in the Ukrainian war, and the timing is really suspicious.
I want a strong, vibrant public transport system in the UK, with rail as a major component. The RMT want to destroy the system - in the same way manner their leaders' mates have destroyed eastern Ukraine.
This is getting a bit reds under the bed, unless you think the Kremlin thinks long-range missiles are shipped to Ukraine via Bank station.
It's not 'reds under the beds'. It's the way the strike appears sus because the union's leadership chose to publicly associate itself with a topic that had zero to do with its business - and 'chose' a side which has proven to be fairly evil - as any look at what happened in the separatist states, or in the last 100 days - shows.
It makes the timing of this strike - which will cause the UK harm - really suspicious.
This dispute has been rumbling on for months and there was a strike ballot last December, two months before Russia invaded Ukraine. What union would not oppose job losses and pension cuts? There is no obvious link to the war in Ukraine either in timing or effect.
It just shows how we have regressed a half century. 10% inflation and "Enemies of the State" behind any strike. The Tories think we are soft in the head.
I've been betting on the basis the the vote, being secret, will involve a goodly chuck of the government payroll voting against him (but not admitting it). If I'm wrong then he may win the vote, probably narrowly.
The Theresa May confidence vote was 200 to 117 - at a time after she’d lost her Parliamentary majority, and had proven several times to be utterly unable to enact her flagship piece of legislation.
I know it appears to be the contrarian view on here, but I still don’t think the rebels have 180 votes, even if they do have the 54 required for the challenge.
I think there are four scenarios -
1. No VoNC in 2022, which is still entirely possible, say 15% 2. VoNC, but won convincingly by Boris, which is reckon is the most likely outcome, 55%. 3. VoNC, which is won unconvincingly, which I would make a 25% chance. 4. And then you have Boris losing a VoNC, which is reckon is just a 5% chance
Did Sir Graham travel down to London yesterday, is any blockage at Watford Junction to be regarded as suspicious, or is he to announce from Altrincham?
If he does, will Johnson be for Sale?
All depends on the size of his Crewe.
None, they're on strike this morning.
At what point do the RMT realise, that most of the City is now set up to be able to work from home on strike days, and that genuine disruption to business is mostly limited to the coffee shops and paper sellers?
I can understand why the workers want to strike at this time of extreme pressure on prices.
But the timing of tis strike, with a rail system that needs to attract people back to work, is awful.
And add in the way some of the RMT's leadership support pro-Russian separatists in the Ukrainian war, and the timing is really suspicious.
I want a strong, vibrant public transport system in the UK, with rail as a major component. The RMT want to destroy the system - in the same way manner their leaders' mates have destroyed eastern Ukraine.
This is getting a bit reds under the bed, unless you think the Kremlin thinks long-range missiles are shipped to Ukraine via Bank station.
It's not 'reds under the beds'. It's the way the strike appears sus because the union's leadership chose to publicly associate itself with a topic that had zero to do with its business - and 'chose' a side which has proven to be fairly evil - as any look at what happened in the separatist states, or in the last 100 days - shows.
It makes the timing of this strike - which will cause the UK harm - really suspicious.
This dispute has been rumbling on for months and there was a strike ballot last December, two months before Russia invaded Ukraine. What union would not oppose job losses and pension cuts? There is no obvious link to the war in Ukraine either in timing or effect.
It just shows how we have regressed a half century. 10% inflation and "Enemies of the State" behind any strike. The Tories think we are soft in the head.
Mind, quite a few PBers obviously have lentil soup for brains under that criterion.
The Theresa May confidence vote was 200 to 117 - at a time after she’d lost her Parliamentary majority, and had proven several times to be utterly unable to enact her flagship piece of legislation.
I know it appears to be the contrarian view on here, but I still don’t think the rebels have 180 votes, even if they do have the 54 required for the challenge.
I think there are four scenarios -
1. No VoNC in 2022, which is still entirely possible, say 15% 2. VoNC, but won convincingly by Boris, which is reckon is the most likely outcome, 55%. 3. VoNC, which is won unconvincingly, which I would make a 25% chance. 4. And then you have Boris losing a VoNC, which is reckon is just a 5% chance
I think he will go simply because… I think he should go
That is to say: I like - or liked - Boris. I voted Leave. I am grateful for him delivering Brexit and saving us from a terrible 2nd vote. I am grateful for him crushing Corbyn forever. I had genuine hopes - however foolish - that he would be a good if not great PM. And I’ve resisted the clamour for his departure until now. I’m still suspicious of it’s motivations
But this Partygate stuff is not going away. The weekend showed it. He has no new ideas: the Norman letter is painfully accurate
There is no purpose served in him staying. So I believe he should go, and if he’s lost relatively loyal people like me then 🤷♂️
You very very very strongly objected to the 2nd vote (fair enough) but don't object to him stretching the constitution to breaking point and constantly lying (all before partygate)?
Does a vote today help Johnson? It seems to me that it probably does as it gives MPs less opportunity to talk to each other and for potential replacements to phone around.
The Theresa May confidence vote was 200 to 117 - at a time after she’d lost her Parliamentary majority, and had proven several times to be utterly unable to enact her flagship piece of legislation.
I know it appears to be the contrarian view on here, but I still don’t think the rebels have 180 votes, even if they do have the 54 required for the challenge.
I think there are four scenarios -
1. No VoNC in 2022, which is still entirely possible, say 15% 2. VoNC, but won convincingly by Boris, which is reckon is the most likely outcome, 55%. 3. VoNC, which is won unconvincingly, which I would make a 25% chance. 4. And then you have Boris losing a VoNC, which is reckon is just a 5% chance
Interesting. I have no idea so I wonder why you think 2) and 4)? They seem both high and low.
The Theresa May confidence vote was 200 to 117 - at a time after she’d lost her Parliamentary majority, and had proven several times to be utterly unable to enact her flagship piece of legislation.
I know it appears to be the contrarian view on here, but I still don’t think the rebels have 180 votes, even if they do have the 54 required for the challenge.
I think there are four scenarios -
1. No VoNC in 2022, which is still entirely possible, say 15% 2. VoNC, but won convincingly by Boris, which is reckon is the most likely outcome, 55%. 3. VoNC, which is won unconvincingly, which I would make a 25% chance. 4. And then you have Boris losing a VoNC, which is reckon is just a 5% chance
1 has gone already...
With 2 soon to follow.....
See if anybody goes on the media saying Boris must remain as PM (other than Nadine, natch).
Sir Graham Brady MP says: "The threshold of 15% of the parliamentary party seeking a vote of confidence in the leader of the Conservative Party has been exceeded.
"In accordance with the rules, a ballot will be held between 18:00 and 20:00 today MONDAY 6th JUNE - details to be confirmed.
"The votes will be counted immediately afterwards. An announcement will be made at a time to be advised. Arrangements for the anno will be released later today."
Does a vote today help Johnson? It seems to me that it probably does as it gives MPs less opportunity to talk to each other and for potential replacements to phone around.
Bit naive to assume they don’t have lots of WhatsApp etc going on. BBC now linking the boos on Friday to the vote... Top trolling.
Re the Cost of Living, round me the price of petrol has shot up. It is now 20 pence higher than the price it dropped to after Sunak's bung.
Really painful.
Even if the PM is replaced, what does the new PM say or do about this? What would Labour say or do?
At our local petrol station, diesel had been significantly more expensive than petrol, but I noticed that today they were the same price. Because petrol had risen, not that diesel had fallen.
Yes, during my fortnight away, petrol at my local Tesco's had risen from 162.9p to 171.9p per litre. Diesel at 183.9p per litre. Extraordinary prices - I'd love to see the breakdown of the cost of a litre between the oil company, the refinery, the transport, fuel duty etc to see where (if anywhere) the profit is being made.
I can't believe this isn't going to have an impact through the economy going forward. The quadrupling of oil prices in 1973-74 was a severe shock - this not on the same scale but still considerable.
It’s going to have a colossal impact and the rise in oil prices has not stopped yet.
I’d be interested in what @Richard_Tyndall thinks on this and where the bottlenecks are. Refining capacity ? Production capacity ? Also more importantly what can be done to reduce the price per barrel.
Sadly I would suggest nothing.
All the things you mention are bottlenecks in the system but the basic issue is that we need to either produce more oil or reduce our need for it. Yes other countries can pump a bit more but we can't. The low oil prices of the last 5 years and the actions of the Government to sideline and marginalize hydrocarbon exploration and development in the UK mean there is no ability of companies to ramp up production in the foreseeable future.
We are almost entirely in the hands of OPEC at the moment and without some very significant geopolitical changes I don't see the price dropping significantly any time soon.
Now that Operation Thorpe Big Dog is confirmed in full swing it must be the 10th time ministers have been dragged onto the airwaves to say something that was proven untrue within days.
Does a vote today help Johnson? It seems to me that it probably does as it gives MPs less opportunity to talk to each other and for potential replacements to phone around.
Today is really bad news for Johnson. His MPs have been at Jubly events for a double weekend and have been bagged up and down the country by constituents who have told them in no uncertain terms what needs to happen.
I know you think he'll lose it but how certain are you? In percentage terms?
I just cannot see how the majority of Conservative MPs can see how Boris can turn this around. I knew in February he was done. The last 72 hours have been utterly toxic. It just has to be better to give someone else a go. Whoever that might be.
I think Boris loses by 40-50. Possibly more.
He could still pull off a stay of execution by announcing that he will resign in spring 2023, plenty of time to put a new PM in place by the 2023 Conference after a lengthy hustings. But even then - why should the Party wait that long, losing seats and councillors aplenty in the meantime?
I know you think he'll lose it but how certain are you? In percentage terms?
I just cannot see how the majority of Conservative MPs can see how Boris can turn this around. I knew in February he was done. The last 72 hours have been utterly toxic. It just has to be better to give someone else a go. Whoever that might be.
I think Boris loses by 40-50. Possibly more.
He could still pull off a stay of execution by announcing that he will resign in spring 2023, plenty of time to put a new PM in place by the 2023 Conference after a lengthy hustings. But even then - why should the Party wait that long, losing seats and councillors aplenty in the meantime?
If he promises to resign in spring 2023 this would only be a promise and I doubt whether they will believe him. They shouldn't believe him.
The Theresa May confidence vote was 200 to 117 - at a time after she’d lost her Parliamentary majority, and had proven several times to be utterly unable to enact her flagship piece of legislation.
I know it appears to be the contrarian view on here, but I still don’t think the rebels have 180 votes, even if they do have the 54 required for the challenge.
I think there are four scenarios -
1. No VoNC in 2022, which is still entirely possible, say 15% 2. VoNC, but won convincingly by Boris, which is reckon is the most likely outcome, 55%. 3. VoNC, which is won unconvincingly, which I would make a 25% chance. 4. And then you have Boris losing a VoNC, which is reckon is just a 5% chance
Comments
But, my reading of the runes is that this is far more like the IDS 2003 no confidence vote rather than the May 2018 no confidence vote so I expect it to be much closer.
It is also the most likely scenario.
I have not changed my assessment:
Boris Johnson will lead his party at the next general election.
Boris Johnson will lead his party to defeat at the next general election.
It makes the timing of this strike - which will cause the UK harm - really suspicious.
I don't blame him. I'd probably be the same.
I know it appears to be the contrarian view on here, but I still don’t think the rebels have 180 votes, even if they do have the 54 required for the challenge.
https://twitter.com/ruddick/status/1533700781664346113?s=21&t=fGrAMwFhm-Lv_dbvnxPWVA
And while it's true, hanging on to either would have been a worse stain.
There is *still* a widespread but *mistaken* assumption that, should Johnson survive a vote of no confidence, he is safe for another year. Yet, thanks to those who sought to defenestrate his predecessor, we know that this is *not* in fact the case. Chapter and verse in this 🧵1/4
https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1533702181249064960
It does seem some of Boris's opponents are beginning to realise he may well be sacked and their response is he will survive and lead the party to defeat in 24
The one certain thing about the conservative party is their desire for power and over the coming weeks it will become obvious that is has not diminished as they remove labour's biggest electoral asset
There will be diehard Brexiteers who will fear for their project being 'indelibly stained'.
Chances of defeat at VONC: 63.5%
Not much there for a supporter of Boris Johnson, Prime Minister to argue with.
1. No VoNC in 2022, which is still entirely possible, say 15%
2. VoNC, but won convincingly by Boris, which is reckon is the most likely outcome, 55%.
3. VoNC, which is won unconvincingly, which I would make a 25% chance.
4. And then you have Boris losing a VoNC, which is reckon is just a 5% chance
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/london-tube-strikes-2022-march-when-why-which-tfl-lines-affected-rmt-b984455.html (from March)
He is safe unless he resigns or the 1922 committee change the rules mid-term (unlikely).
That is to say: I like - or liked - Boris. I voted Leave. I am grateful for him delivering Brexit and saving us from a terrible 2nd vote. I am grateful for him crushing Corbyn forever. I had genuine hopes - however foolish - that he would be a good if not great PM. And I’ve resisted the clamour for his departure until now. I’m still suspicious of it’s motivations
But this Partygate stuff is not going away. The weekend showed it. He has no new ideas: the Norman letter is painfully accurate
There is no purpose served in him staying. So I believe he should go, and if he’s lost relatively loyal people like me then 🤷♂️
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1533702798034059264
Arthur wasn't bothered that it was summer, the coal stocks were high, the UDM wouldn't fall in line, and Mrs Thatcher was spoiling for a fight. It's always time to fight the good fight for political leaders. The question is always "Will they come out?"
From the point of view of the rank and file, strike action is often effective. But you have to trust your leaders.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1533705200107671553
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1533704691690876928
https://twitter.com/Jesse_Norman/status/1533699235417403393
As a Labour supporter I know Johnson going isn’t the best thing for their chances but if Johnson stays until the next GE how much more damage will he do to the country and to the office of PM.
There is also still no other policy difference around which opposition to Johnson might form. If the only advantage of defenestrating Johnson is to replace him with a better person, rather than better policy, then that process is more fraught when it isn't obvious who the successor will be.
It will be fascinating to see where the final tally ends up.
Insists he will vote for the PM - but declines to rule out another tilt at the leadership if Boris is ousted #LBC
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1533705733765836800
Aye, right...
https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1533702185271304195
https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1533706339108675584
The threshold has been reached to trigger a confidence ballot.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61701064
Margin of 100 or more either way = 230/129 (64%)
Margin of 50 or more either way = 205/154 (57%)
Closest = 180/179
Don't know where the odds have gone, but if you don't think it close, either way, cover 100+.
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1533705693341093889
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1533707523265552385
Vote will be this evening/
https://www.gbnews.uk/news/dominic-raab-tells-gb-news-there-will-not-be-a-vote-of-no-confidence-in-boris-johnson-next-week/307776
See if anybody goes on the media saying Boris must remain as PM (other than Nadine, natch).
"In accordance with the rules, a ballot will be held between 18:00 and 20:00 today MONDAY 6th JUNE - details to be confirmed.
"The votes will be counted immediately afterwards. An announcement will be made at a time to be advised. Arrangements for the anno will be released later today."
BBC now linking the boos on Friday to the vote...
Top trolling.
NEW: Brady spoke to PM last night...
PM to write to Tory MPs to warn contest would be "destructive, decisive and distracting."
No10 will try spin this as chance to draw line under months of frenzy... point to 14m voters V 15% of MPs.. looking for "clean and decisive" result !
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1533709037488971776
All the things you mention are bottlenecks in the system but the basic issue is that we need to either produce more oil or reduce our need for it. Yes other countries can pump a bit more but we can't. The low oil prices of the last 5 years and the actions of the Government to sideline and marginalize hydrocarbon exploration and development in the UK mean there is no ability of companies to ramp up production in the foreseeable future.
We are almost entirely in the hands of OPEC at the moment and without some very significant geopolitical changes I don't see the price dropping significantly any time soon.
I think Boris loses by 40-50. Possibly more.
He could still pull off a stay of execution by announcing that he will resign in spring 2023, plenty of time to put a new PM in place by the 2023 Conference after a lengthy hustings. But even then - why should the Party wait that long, losing seats and councillors aplenty in the meantime?
Boris Johnson is currently on 1,048.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1533709665040846848
Tories humiliated in both by elections.
Ministerial resignations followed by a brutal reshuffle.
Strap in
Come on Tories, show you do have some integrity and give the lying oaf the boot.