The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. They never have been. Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Nadinian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny. It’s not the Rees-Mogg's, the Patels or the Raabs who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created.
So, the confidence vote is happening and not a single cabinet member has broken cover and done the right thing. Remember this, when they parade through media studios - either tomorrow, or in a year - saying they "had felt very uncomfortable for a long time". Cowards. https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1533711562036457473
Brady has done Johnson a huge favour here. Not sure he has done much to help the Conservative party or the country, though.
Today would have been the 103rd birthday of Lord Carrington, soldier and statesman, holder of the MC and a KG, who was Tory Foreign Secretary when Argentina occupied the Falklands and resigned not for any fault of his own but because he considered it honourable. https://twitter.com/RevRichardColes/status/1533702741817798656
Did Sir Graham travel down to London yesterday, is any blockage at Watford Junction to be regarded as suspicious, or is he to announce from Altrincham?
If he does, will Johnson be for Sale?
All depends on the size of his Crewe.
None, they're on strike this morning.
At what point do the RMT realise, that most of the City is now set up to be able to work from home on strike days, and that genuine disruption to business is mostly limited to the coffee shops and paper sellers?
I can understand why the workers want to strike at this time of extreme pressure on prices.
But the timing of tis strike, with a rail system that needs to attract people back to work, is awful.
And add in the way some of the RMT's leadership support pro-Russian separatists in the Ukrainian war, and the timing is really suspicious.
I want a strong, vibrant public transport system in the UK, with rail as a major component. The RMT want to destroy the system - in the same way manner their leaders' mates have destroyed eastern Ukraine.
This is getting a bit reds under the bed, unless you think the Kremlin thinks long-range missiles are shipped to Ukraine via Bank station.
It's not 'reds under the beds'. It's the way the strike appears sus because the union's leadership chose to publicly associate itself with a topic that had zero to do with its business - and 'chose' a side which has proven to be fairly evil - as any look at what happened in the separatist states, or in the last 100 days - shows.
It makes the timing of this strike - which will cause the UK harm - really suspicious.
This dispute has been rumbling on for months and there was a strike ballot last December, two months before Russia invaded Ukraine. What union would not oppose job losses and pension cuts? There is no obvious link to the war in Ukraine either in timing or effect.
You miss the point - and I'm unsure you are correct anyway.
And I'm amused by the fact that the Conservative Party getting money from Russian donors apparently (in the minds of anti-Tories) means they're in the pockets of Russia - despite all the training and support given to Ukraine over the years.
Yet a union whose deputy leader travelled to separatist areas and appeared with the separatist leader, and whose leadership appears to have supported Russia's annexation of Ukraine, means they're not pro-Russian.
And that latter point is the important one. Dempsey at the very least should go. I cannot see how any action he supports will be untainted by his shilling for evil.
The Theresa May confidence vote was 200 to 117 - at a time after she’d lost her Parliamentary majority, and had proven several times to be utterly unable to enact her flagship piece of legislation.
I know it appears to be the contrarian view on here, but I still don’t think the rebels have 180 votes, even if they do have the 54 required for the challenge.
I think an element in May's support in the VONC was a fear that removing her put Brexit in jeopardy.
As someone who never wanted Johnson to be Tory leader, and felt both Cameron and May were decentish people who were shafted by a far-from-decent person, I am totally LOLling at this.
Hopefully this is a case of what goes around, comes around.
Asked when the threshold was passed, Sir Graham says some Tory MPs "asked specifically that it should not be until the end of the Jubilee celebrations".
Pressed on whether MPs post-dated their letters to ensure there was no distraction from the Jubilee, Sir Graham admits "that is not a bad description of events". (BBC)
Does a vote today help Johnson? It seems to me that it probably does as it gives MPs less opportunity to talk to each other and for potential replacements to phone around.
Today is really bad news for Johnson. His MPs have been at Jubly events for a double weekend and have been bagged up and down the country by constituents who have told them in no uncertain terms what needs to happen.
OTOH not going to get any better. I almost wondered if (as suggested on here passim) Mr J got his payroll vote to write to Sir Graham Brady Old Tory to speed things up.
As someone who never wanted Johnson to be Tory leader, and felt both Cameron and May were decentish people who were shafted by a far-from-decent person, I am totally LOLling at this.
Hopefully this is a case of what goes around, comes around.
May regret this later but I suspect vote against Johnson may be larger than expected. Lot of MPs have had to swallow, and publicly defend, an awful a lot of shameful nonsense for more than six months. They know PM’s no longer popular. They know he won’t change. Dam may burst.
The Theresa May confidence vote was 200 to 117 - at a time after she’d lost her Parliamentary majority, and had proven several times to be utterly unable to enact her flagship piece of legislation.
I know it appears to be the contrarian view on here, but I still don’t think the rebels have 180 votes, even if they do have the 54 required for the challenge.
I think an element in May's support in the VONC was a fear that removing her put Brexit in jeopardy.
Boris has got Brexit done. He has told us so.
I think part of the point is that he hasn't got it done ...
Sir Graham Brady MP says: "The threshold of 15% of the parliamentary party seeking a vote of confidence in the leader of the Conservative Party has been exceeded.
"In accordance with the rules, a ballot will be held between 18:00 and 20:00 today MONDAY 6th JUNE - details to be confirmed.
"The votes will be counted immediately afterwards. An announcement will be made at a time to be advised. Arrangements for the anno will be released later today."
The Theresa May confidence vote was 200 to 117 - at a time after she’d lost her Parliamentary majority, and had proven several times to be utterly unable to enact her flagship piece of legislation.
I know it appears to be the contrarian view on here, but I still don’t think the rebels have 180 votes, even if they do have the 54 required for the challenge.
I think there are four scenarios -
1. No VoNC in 2022, which is still entirely possible, say 15% 2. VoNC, but won convincingly by Boris, which is reckon is the most likely outcome, 55%. 3. VoNC, which is won unconvincingly, which I would make a 25% chance. 4. And then you have Boris losing a VoNC, which is reckon is just a 5% chance
Mr. Stocky, to be fair, Belgium has very good chocolates, and a top F1 circuit (when it doesn't rain).
Interesting beers, especially the peach or raspberry kriek, chicken stew, and military history, and a very fine fossil herd of dinosaurs (or a herd of f. d.) in the Museum d'historie naturelle.
The Norman resignation is definitely more interesting than most, for laying out a variety of policy reasons behind it as well well as personal. Not just one but several.
Well, this has livened up a quiet, damp, post-bank holiday Monday morning!!!
My son's school is closed for an inset day (*). He's wondering why I've been chortling for the last ten minutes, and I'm trying to explain the current state of UK's politics. Which just makes me laugh all the more.
(*) I've never really got the point of inset days.
Hope the Tories get rid of the bastard. He’s bad for the country.
Whoever succeeds him inherits a poisonous legacy.
Hope the Tories avoid electing someone worse. 50:50 chance there.
It won't be someone worse in terms of personal integrity. Boris is uniquely bad.
It might be someone worse in terms of electability, but I imagine you won't be too troubled by that.
Incidentally, looks as though I was right that the 54 letters were already in before the jubilee weekend, and that Sir Graham was holding off the announcement so as not to distract from the celebrations.
Strong theme coming through is that many Tory MPs feel PM is dragging the Conservative Party down and destroying its reputation as well as their own. They cite his “character” and “lack of integrity” as the problem and don’t think that’s going to change #Tories https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1533713847118446598
Did Sir Graham travel down to London yesterday, is any blockage at Watford Junction to be regarded as suspicious, or is he to announce from Altrincham?
If he does, will Johnson be for Sale?
All depends on the size of his Crewe.
None, they're on strike this morning.
At what point do the RMT realise, that most of the City is now set up to be able to work from home on strike days, and that genuine disruption to business is mostly limited to the coffee shops and paper sellers?
I can understand why the workers want to strike at this time of extreme pressure on prices.
But the timing of tis strike, with a rail system that needs to attract people back to work, is awful.
And add in the way some of the RMT's leadership support pro-Russian separatists in the Ukrainian war, and the timing is really suspicious.
I want a strong, vibrant public transport system in the UK, with rail as a major component. The RMT want to destroy the system - in the same way manner their leaders' mates have destroyed eastern Ukraine.
This is getting a bit reds under the bed, unless you think the Kremlin thinks long-range missiles are shipped to Ukraine via Bank station.
It's not 'reds under the beds'. It's the way the strike appears sus because the union's leadership chose to publicly associate itself with a topic that had zero to do with its business - and 'chose' a side which has proven to be fairly evil - as any look at what happened in the separatist states, or in the last 100 days - shows.
It makes the timing of this strike - which will cause the UK harm - really suspicious.
This dispute has been rumbling on for months and there was a strike ballot last December, two months before Russia invaded Ukraine. What union would not oppose job losses and pension cuts? There is no obvious link to the war in Ukraine either in timing or effect.
You miss the point - and I'm unsure you are correct anyway.
And I'm amused by the fact that the Conservative Party getting money from Russian donors apparently (in the minds of anti-Tories) means they're in the pockets of Russia - despite all the training and support given to Ukraine over the years.
Yet a union whose deputy leader travelled to separatist areas and appeared with the separatist leader, and whose leadership appears to have supported Russia's annexation of Ukraine, means they're not pro-Russian.
And that latter point is the important one. Dempsey at the very least should go. I cannot see how any action he supports will be untainted by his shilling for evil.
Straw men to the right of them; straw men to the left of them...
Aren't there going to be some tory MPs who hadn't planned to be back today after the long weekend?
Proxy votes will be available for those not present in Westminster Brady said
Perhaps Boris has encouraged members of the gov't 'not to rush back'. If you're present at Westminster then you can easily cast a vote secretly against the PM. If you're away and have been assured you can let Mogg have your proxy vote OTOH, well a proxy vote cast through Brady, Ghani or Wragg or indeed AN Other back bencher might raise a few suspicions....
I think it's fair enough the vote is going ahead today, Brady clearly had the letters in at some point last week but everyone wanted to get the jubilee out the way first.
Mr. Stocky, to be fair, Belgium has very good chocolates, and a top F1 circuit (when it doesn't rain).
Interesting beers, especially the peach or raspberry kriek, chicken stew, and military history, and a very fine fossil herd of dinosaurs (or a herd of f. d.) in the Museum d'historie naturelle.
Stick to the Flemish bits of Belgium and you'll meet the most friendly people. Go to one of the smaller towns like Poperinge and you'll get all of the above plus they'll be delighted you're visiting and that you aren't French or Dutch.
It’s in Boris Johnson’s interests for the confidence vote to be held tonight as it gives the rebels less time to persuade enough Tory MPs to join them (180 needed to remove him).
Rob Ford 💙💛@robfordmancs Maybe. Or maybe a vote held when mood is feverish and Number 10 hasn’t had time to talk people down is in rebels’ interests. Right answer may depend on who has planned for this moment better.
Rob Ford 💙💛@robfordmancs 1m (And the people planning Save Big Dog (Again) are the same ones who organised the Owen Patterson farce and so many other chaotic u-turns that most observers have lost count. U-turns and humiliations that many MPs may have at the front of their minds today
I wonder if May will be voting to keep Johnson ! Lol
I wonder how many of the Cabinet will be voting for him?
1. Nadine.
2. Er.....
In my take on Sion Simon's opus, having used Nadine Dorres as the School of Blitzkrieg and then going straight for Rees-Mogg I was struggling to think of two others that might support him. Settled on Raab and Patel.
May regret this later but I suspect vote against Johnson may be larger than expected. Lot of MPs have had to swallow, and publicly defend, an awful a lot of shameful nonsense for more than six months. They know PM’s no longer popular. They know he won’t change. Dam may burst.
Always tricky separating what you think will happen from what you hope will happen.
I think that holding the vote tonight rather than in a few days increases the chances/hope he goes. MPs will have it very fresh in their minds any grief they received over the Jubilee weekend which will give them the impetus to remove him but it doesn’t give time for them to waver, have second thoughts, be pressured, be manipulated into thinking “well maybe he can still pull a rabbit from the hat”.
It’s now or never potentially and so hopefully now.
It’s like the bankruptcy thing “Boris, how did your Premiership end?” “Slowly at first then very quickly.”
The Theresa May confidence vote was 200 to 117 - at a time after she’d lost her Parliamentary majority, and had proven several times to be utterly unable to enact her flagship piece of legislation.
I know it appears to be the contrarian view on here, but I still don’t think the rebels have 180 votes, even if they do have the 54 required for the challenge.
I'm not sure I agree with the corollary.
Theresa May had not just the payroll vote, but she had people who likely didn't have any confidence in her voting to support her because they didn't want Boris or someone from the ERG to replace her. Most of the Tory MPs in the 2017 Parliament had voted Remain and weren't supporting an ERG-inspired putsch.
I'm not sure if that factor is there for Boris. If the objection is now personal rather than political divisions, then it becomes much less of a fear of who'd replace him.
So, the confidence vote is happening and not a single cabinet member has broken cover and done the right thing. Remember this, when they parade through media studios - either tomorrow, or in a year - saying they "had felt very uncomfortable for a long time". Cowards. https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1533711562036457473
See, here’s you, a wanky Remoaner, cutting and pasting another wanky Remoaner on Twitter, and he in turn is retweeted by the FBPE wankers
All the greatest anger against him is driven by the imbecile Remoaners
It’s almost enough to get me to support Boris again, but…. Not quite enough. Not this time
Tho I do wonder what will happen to the blind rage of the Remoaners, when and if Boris goes. Will it finally dissipate, or will they simply move on to the next source of angst?
Did Sir Graham travel down to London yesterday, is any blockage at Watford Junction to be regarded as suspicious, or is he to announce from Altrincham?
If he does, will Johnson be for Sale?
All depends on the size of his Crewe.
None, they're on strike this morning.
At what point do the RMT realise, that most of the City is now set up to be able to work from home on strike days, and that genuine disruption to business is mostly limited to the coffee shops and paper sellers?
I can understand why the workers want to strike at this time of extreme pressure on prices.
But the timing of tis strike, with a rail system that needs to attract people back to work, is awful.
And add in the way some of the RMT's leadership support pro-Russian separatists in the Ukrainian war, and the timing is really suspicious.
I want a strong, vibrant public transport system in the UK, with rail as a major component. The RMT want to destroy the system - in the same way manner their leaders' mates have destroyed eastern Ukraine.
This is getting a bit reds under the bed, unless you think the Kremlin thinks long-range missiles are shipped to Ukraine via Bank station.
It's not 'reds under the beds'. It's the way the strike appears sus because the union's leadership chose to publicly associate itself with a topic that had zero to do with its business - and 'chose' a side which has proven to be fairly evil - as any look at what happened in the separatist states, or in the last 100 days - shows.
It makes the timing of this strike - which will cause the UK harm - really suspicious.
This dispute has been rumbling on for months and there was a strike ballot last December, two months before Russia invaded Ukraine. What union would not oppose job losses and pension cuts? There is no obvious link to the war in Ukraine either in timing or effect.
You miss the point - and I'm unsure you are correct anyway.
And I'm amused by the fact that the Conservative Party getting money from Russian donors apparently (in the minds of anti-Tories) means they're in the pockets of Russia - despite all the training and support given to Ukraine over the years.
Yet a union whose deputy leader travelled to separatist areas and appeared with the separatist leader, and whose leadership appears to have supported Russia's annexation of Ukraine, means they're not pro-Russian.
And that latter point is the important one. Dempsey at the very least should go. I cannot see how any action he supports will be untainted by his shilling for evil.
Straw men to the right of them; straw men to the left of them...
Not really.
Are you saying you think their support of the Russian-backed separatists was a) relevant union business, or b) wise? Are you saying it reflects well on them and their decision-making capability?
So, the confidence vote is happening and not a single cabinet member has broken cover and done the right thing. Remember this, when they parade through media studios - either tomorrow, or in a year - saying they "had felt very uncomfortable for a long time". Cowards. https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1533711562036457473
See, here’s you, a wanky Remoaner, cutting and pasting another wanky Remoaner on Twitter, and he in turn is retweeted by the FBPE wankers
All the greatest anger against him is driven by the imbecile Remoaners
It’s almost enough to get me to support Boris again, but…. Not quite enough. Not this time
Tho I do wonder what will happen to the blind rage of the Remoaners, when and if Boris goes. Will it finally dissipate, or will they simply move on to the next source of angst?
They will be surprised, again, when their self-evidently obviously right opinions are not adopted by everyone else.
Surely the only humane solution to the "everyone is trans" woke disaster is simply to ban female sport. Its what God would want...
It's only passed the House - there's a fair chance it will never make it to the statute book. But it is a demonstration of what the backlash against social acceptance of transgender individuals might involve.
The truly perverse thing about the proposed law is that it allows any one to demand an invasive sex test of any girl involved in school or college sport - and protects that person from any legal consequences.
Its typical of the mindset of these people. I need my gun to protect me against criminals and the government. It will be Other People's children shot to death in their classroom because they are too stupid to go to a school with security. We need invasive sexual assaults of 10 year old girls because communist woke trans lizards are trying to impurify America. It will be Other People's children being assaulted and traumatised.
That anyone can propose such an abomination - never mind vote for it - shows just how sick they are as a society. I don't think Margaret Attwood wrote the Handmaid's Tale as a manual for a better America, but so many Americans seem to treat it that way.
That proposed Ohio law is utterly revolting - to use concerns about transgender people in female sports competitions to justify sexual assaults on girls is quite vile.
Ohio has also proposed the strictest abortion law yet.
Re the Cost of Living, round me the price of petrol has shot up. It is now 20 pence higher than the price it dropped to after Sunak's bung.
Really painful.
Even if the PM is replaced, what does the new PM say or do about this? What would Labour say or do?
At our local petrol station, diesel had been significantly more expensive than petrol, but I noticed that today they were the same price. Because petrol had risen, not that diesel had fallen.
Yes, during my fortnight away, petrol at my local Tesco's had risen from 162.9p to 171.9p per litre. Diesel at 183.9p per litre. Extraordinary prices - I'd love to see the breakdown of the cost of a litre between the oil company, the refinery, the transport, fuel duty etc to see where (if anywhere) the profit is being made.
I can't believe this isn't going to have an impact through the economy going forward. The quadrupling of oil prices in 1973-74 was a severe shock - this not on the same scale but still considerable.
It’s going to have a colossal impact and the rise in oil prices has not stopped yet.
I’d be interested in what @Richard_Tyndall thinks on this and where the bottlenecks are. Refining capacity ? Production capacity ? Also more importantly what can be done to reduce the price per barrel.
Sadly I would suggest nothing.
All the things you mention are bottlenecks in the system but the basic issue is that we need to either produce more oil or reduce our need for it. Yes other countries can pump a bit more but we can't. The low oil prices of the last 5 years and the actions of the Government to sideline and marginalize hydrocarbon exploration and development in the UK mean there is no ability of companies to ramp up production in the foreseeable future.
We are almost entirely in the hands of OPEC at the moment and without some very significant geopolitical changes I don't see the price dropping significantly any time soon.
Thanks Richard, so we just need to learn to live with high prices for the foreseeable future with all that entails and just hope the hurricane season is kind and we don’t get a white out in Texas in the winter.
Comments
https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1533711562036457473
https://twitter.com/RevRichardColes/status/1533702741817798656
And I'm amused by the fact that the Conservative Party getting money from Russian donors apparently (in the minds of anti-Tories) means they're in the pockets of Russia - despite all the training and support given to Ukraine over the years.
Yet a union whose deputy leader travelled to separatist areas and appeared with the separatist leader, and whose leadership appears to have supported Russia's annexation of Ukraine, means they're not pro-Russian.
And that latter point is the important one. Dempsey at the very least should go. I cannot see how any action he supports will be untainted by his shilling for evil.
Boris has got Brexit done. He has told us so.
Whoever succeeds him inherits a poisonous legacy.
Hope the Tories avoid electing someone worse. 50:50 chance there.
Hopefully this is a case of what goes around, comes around.
Where's my popcorn?
“Tonight is a chance to end months of speculation and allow the government to draw a line and move on, delivering on the people’s priorities.” 1/2
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1533712457738473473
Ummm, the only way to draw a line under BoZo is to remove him...
Pressed on whether MPs post-dated their letters to ensure there was no distraction from the Jubilee, Sir Graham admits "that is not a bad description of events".
(BBC)
The bastards....
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1533711635956760576
Always tricky separating what you think will happen from what you hope will happen.
If Boris loses, Rishi gets the sack in the reshuffle
Why not just resign?
(a bit of alliteration there).
1. Nadine.
2. Er.....
Snap judgement time.
PM will ‘make his case to MPs’ & say ‘when they’re united and focused on the issues that matter to voters there is no more formidable political force’
https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1533713088008138752
Tory MPs have spent 4 days listening to voters tell them the issue that matters is to remove the FLSOJ
For the good of the country Johnson must go. For the good of Labour he must stay.
So I can’t lose!
(*) I've never really got the point of inset days.
He has delivered on covid recovery and supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. He has apologised for mistakes made.
We must now focus on economic growth.
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1533713618122022914
NEW THREAD
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1533713427599749121
It might be someone worse in terms of electability, but I imagine you won't be too troubled by that.
Incidentally, looks as though I was right that the 54 letters were already in before the jubilee weekend, and that Sir Graham was holding off the announcement so as not to distract from the celebrations.
https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1533713847118446598
I think it's fair enough the vote is going ahead today, Brady clearly had the letters in at some point last week but everyone wanted to get the jubilee out the way first.
George Eaton @georgeeaton
It’s in Boris Johnson’s interests for the confidence vote to be held tonight as it gives the rebels less time to persuade enough Tory MPs to join them (180 needed to remove him).
Rob Ford 💙💛@robfordmancs
Maybe. Or maybe a vote held when mood is feverish and Number 10 hasn’t had time to talk people down is in rebels’ interests. Right answer may depend on who has planned for this moment better.
Rob Ford 💙💛@robfordmancs 1m
(And the people planning Save Big Dog (Again) are the same ones who organised the Owen Patterson farce and so many other chaotic u-turns that most observers have lost count. U-turns and humiliations that many MPs may have at the front of their minds today
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1533713513985736704
Next Chancellor:
Rachel Reeves 6.4
Liz Truss 7
Nadhim Zahawi 9.8
Kwasi Kwarteng 12.5
Steve Barclay 13
Sajid Javid 13.5
Michael Gove 15
Alok Sharma 15
Dominic Raab 17
Jeremy Hunt 17.5
20 bar
It’s now or never potentially and so hopefully now.
It’s like the bankruptcy thing “Boris, how did your Premiership end?” “Slowly at first then very quickly.”
Theresa May had not just the payroll vote, but she had people who likely didn't have any confidence in her voting to support her because they didn't want Boris or someone from the ERG to replace her. Most of the Tory MPs in the 2017 Parliament had voted Remain and weren't supporting an ERG-inspired putsch.
I'm not sure if that factor is there for Boris. If the objection is now personal rather than political divisions, then it becomes much less of a fear of who'd replace him.
All the greatest anger against him is driven by the imbecile Remoaners
It’s almost enough to get me to support Boris again, but…. Not quite enough. Not this time
Tho I do wonder what will happen to the blind rage of the Remoaners, when and if Boris goes. Will it finally dissipate, or will they simply move on to the next source of angst?
Are you saying you think their support of the Russian-backed separatists was a) relevant union business, or b) wise?
Are you saying it reflects well on them and their decision-making capability?
Ohio has also proposed the strictest abortion law yet.