These are the numbers that should really panic Number 10 – politicalbetting.com

As suggested at the time, Number 10 destroying heir-apparent Rishi Sunak may have been a pyrrhic victory endangering Boris by giving every other would-be heir or faction a realistic chance of victory.

"Several Tory MPs told the Guardian they believed the threshold of 54 letters withdrawing support for Johnson was close to being crossed – or may have been already."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/30/johnson-lurch-to-right-adds-momentum-leadership-vote

Report from Kharkiv on Putin’s war on civilians.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/05/29/how-war-has-changed-ukraines-second-city
… Quick thinking saved the first-year psychology student from probable death: she ran from her kitchen to the bathroom as soon as she heard the first thuds. By the time the artillery reached her flat on Shakespeare Street on the afternoon of May 26th, slicing through the сhestnut trees to land outside her window, Ms Rebenko was two walls away from the impact. She walked away with minor cuts. At least nine others ended up in the morgue. Dina Kirsanova, a shopkeeper at a milk kiosk near the 23 August metro station, the main target of the strikes, saw at least 15 missiles in the sky. Air defences intercepted most of them, she said, preventing even greater loss of life: “It’s beyond cruel. There are no military positions here. Just simple people, trying to survive.”..

More propaganda, @Luckyguy1983 ?

DecrepiterJohnL said:

As suggested at the time, Number 10 destroying heir-apparent Rishi Sunak may have been a pyrrhic victory endangering Boris by giving every other would-be heir or faction a realistic chance of victory.

Good point!

Good piece on Johnson's 'red meat policy' lurch to the right:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/30/johnsons-red-meat-policy-proposals-are-telling-of-his-insecurity

"It is a moment often seen in the downward trajectory of embattled prime ministers: a whirl of new policy ideas intended to appeal to voters, but which are in fact more often aimed at placating their own MPs. Boris Johnson is, some would argue, approaching this point.

In recent days Downing Street has briefed in favour of grammar schools and imperial measurements. Earlier weeks saw forays into other Conservative comfort zones, including bashing the EU and talking up fossil fuels.

Such nostalgia politics is routinely promoted by Conservative backbenchers. But it is one of the paradoxes of Tory party politics that the more secure a prime minister is in office, the less they have to indulge these ideas."

DecrepiterJohnL said:

As suggested at the time, Number 10 destroying heir-apparent Rishi Sunak may have been a pyrrhic victory endangering Boris by giving every other would-be heir or faction a realistic chance of victory.

The moment to move (if they choose to) is close - we are on the edge of June and if the Conservatives want a new leader by conference they need to move in June. I cant imagine the mentality of Tory MPs, they used to be ruthless in their pursuit of retaining power - are they really that fearful of Big Dog?

Some reports that Biden has approved the supply of MRLS to Ukraine (probably limited to systems with 70km range missiles).
Would also be of big significance in countering Russia’s artillery advantage.

Nigelb said:

Report from Kharkiv on Putin’s war on civilians.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/05/29/how-war-has-changed-ukraines-second-city
… Quick thinking saved the first-year psychology student from probable death: she ran from her kitchen to the bathroom as soon as she heard the first thuds. By the time the artillery reached her flat on Shakespeare Street on the afternoon of May 26th, slicing through the сhestnut trees to land outside her window, Ms Rebenko was two walls away from the impact. She walked away with minor cuts. At least nine others ended up in the morgue. Dina Kirsanova, a shopkeeper at a milk kiosk near the 23 August metro station, the main target of the strikes, saw at least 15 missiles in the sky. Air defences intercepted most of them, she said, preventing even greater loss of life: “It’s beyond cruel. There are no military positions here. Just simple people, trying to survive.”..

More propaganda, Luckyguy1983 ?

Civilians do appear to be targets for the Russians - which is odd, given that his stated aim is to liberate them from the Nazis. Not sure how killing them helps with that.

Nigelb said:

This should be of huge significance. While it’s a compromise to accommodate Russia friendly Hungary, it affects two thirds or more of oil exports to the EU.

EU leaders agree to partial embargo of Russian oil imports
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/30/eu-nears-compromise-agreement-for-partial-ban-on-russian-oil

Will wait for the full details of the final agreement, but this does appear to be good news on the face of it. Germany and Hungary isolated by the willingness of others to cut off Putin’s supply of foreign currency.

Nigelb said:

This should be of huge significance. While it’s a compromise to accommodate Russia friendly Hungary, it affects two thirds or more of oil exports to the EU.

EU leaders agree to partial embargo of Russian oil imports
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/30/eu-nears-compromise-agreement-for-partial-ban-on-russian-oil

God make me good… but not yet

I’ll do something in 7 months time and only have a few small loopholes. But I promise I’m not talking out of both sides of my mouth

Nigelb said:

This should be of huge significance. While it’s a compromise to accommodate Russia friendly Hungary, it affects two thirds or more of oil exports to the EU.

EU leaders agree to partial embargo of Russian oil imports
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/30/eu-nears-compromise-agreement-for-partial-ban-on-russian-oil

Nevertheless they will be importing oil from somewhere and the oil market is a global market. Russia can sell its oil elsewhere, just with a bit of inconvenience. An ineffective policy masquerading as 'something' for the something-must-be-done mindset. Gas is different.

SouthamObserver said:

The queues we are seeing at the UK's airports currently tell you so much about how crap senior managements often are in the private sector. They took a short-term decision to save money during covid by laying off a shedload of staff and are now inflicting the inevitable long-term consequences of that on their customers. It's the British business malaise laid bear - we are incapable of seeing beyond the end of our noses. We lionise those who cut costs as people who take the hard decisions. But there is nothing tough about doing it. It's easy. Any fool can do it. But there is almost always a price to pay. As ever, the idea that the private sector knows best is revealed by real life to be a load of old pony.

although that doesn’t preclude the possibility that the public sector is even worse, of course.

SouthamObserver said:

. As ever, the idea that the private sector knows best is revealed by real life to be a load of old pony.

Setting sail with the bow doors open is the one that dropped the scales from my capitalist eyes. The 'Herald of Free Enterprise'. God, what a bitter irony.

I knew at that moment that the private sector was all-too-capable of making appalling decisions, sometimes at the expense of people's lives.

SouthamObserver said:

Nigelb said:

This should be of huge significance. While it’s a compromise to accommodate Russia friendly Hungary, it affects two thirds or more of oil exports to the EU.

EU leaders agree to partial embargo of Russian oil imports
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/30/eu-nears-compromise-agreement-for-partial-ban-on-russian-oil

Who could possibly have imagined that Viktor Orban - the man who destroyed Hungarian democracy, the darling of the right in the UK and the US - would turn out to be Putin's principal European ally?

I'm trying to see it from the Hungarian perspective- all their infrastrtucture is geared towards Russian oil (so turning it off is not like the UK or France), they have absorbed millions of refugees and are struggling economically - is it any wonder why they cannot stop importing oil... I'm not sure the UK would have done so under the same conditions.

SouthamObserver said:

The queues we are seeing at the UK's airports currently tell you so much about how crap senior managements often are in the private sector. They took a short-term decision to save money during covid by laying off a shedload of staff and are now inflicting the inevitable long-term consequences of that on their customers. It's the British business malaise laid bear - we are incapable of seeing beyond the end of our noses. We lionise those who cut costs as people who take the hard decisions. But there is nothing tough about doing it. It's easy. Any fool can do it. But there is almost always a price to pay. As ever, the idea that the private sector knows best is revealed by real life to be a load of old pony.

Not just the private sector - see NHS for details - and not just in Britain.

I am aware of an airline that laid off a couple of hundred A380 captains during the pandemic - and is now discovering that A380 captains don’t grow on trees, doubly so when offering less money than before the pandemic.

SouthamObserver said:

The queues we are seeing at the UK's airports currently tell you so much about how crap senior managements often are in the private sector. They took a short-term decision to save money during covid by laying off a shedload of staff and are now inflicting the inevitable long-term consequences of that on their customers. It's the British business malaise laid bear - we are incapable of seeing beyond the end of our noses. We lionise those who cut costs as people who take the hard decisions. But there is nothing tough about doing it. It's easy. Any fool can do it. But there is almost always a price to pay. As ever, the idea that the private sector knows best is revealed by real life to be a load of old pony.

I can understand the need for a business to lay off a chunk of its staff in a downturn. There's no work for you - sorry - so here's some cash to go away and when things pick up replacement hires are easy. Harder to justify if its a megabucks company, much easier if its small and on the brink.

But the play only works if "replacement hires are easy". And what seems to have caught the airport companies with their pants down is the new environment we find ourselves in post-Covid. A whole stack of people - 610k - have decided they may as well stop working completely. Which means big pockets of unfillable jobs in key sectors in certain places.

Which is how we find ourselves here - airports unable to hire the staff they need to function as an airport. As the likes of Manchestoh Airport are council owned and have had months I assume this isn't a salary issue as they must have been offering more and more money to bring in anyone they can get. So its conditions - people just don't want to do the work, don't need to do the work as other jobs available, and likely some could be tempted but shift work and they have kids.

Manchester Airport - to take one example - was not a small business on the brink. It could have kept all its staff on, but chose not to. Because staff are disposable and can easily be replaced. Can't they? Better treatment and relations with staff equals a better job being done equals happier customers. Why haven't companies understood this?

SouthamObserver said:

The queues we are seeing at the UK's airports currently tell you so much about how crap senior managements often are in the private sector. They took a short-term decision to save money during covid by laying off a shedload of staff and are now inflicting the inevitable long-term consequences of that on their customers. It's the British business malaise laid bear - we are incapable of seeing beyond the end of our noses. We lionise those who cut costs as people who take the hard decisions. But there is nothing tough about doing it. It's easy. Any fool can do it. But there is almost always a price to pay. As ever, the idea that the private sector knows best is revealed by real life to be a load of old pony.

Good morning

Apparently Dublin, Schipol, and US airports were all chaotic as well and it is rather simplistic to suggest this is only a UK problem

It is clearly far wider spread than that

Sandpit said:

SouthamObserver said:

The queues we are seeing at the UK's airports currently tell you so much about how crap senior managements often are in the private sector. They took a short-term decision to save money during covid by laying off a shedload of staff and are now inflicting the inevitable long-term consequences of that on their customers. It's the British business malaise laid bear - we are incapable of seeing beyond the end of our noses. We lionise those who cut costs as people who take the hard decisions. But there is nothing tough about doing it. It's easy. Any fool can do it. But there is almost always a price to pay. As ever, the idea that the private sector knows best is revealed by real life to be a load of old pony.

Not just the private sector, and not just in Britain.

I am aware of an airline that laid off a couple of hundred A380 captains during the pandemic - and is now discovering that A380 captains don’t grow on trees, doubly so when offering less money than before the pandemic.

Emirates also parked most of those A380's in the desert and have had no end of problems as a result: overheating, sand, electrical issues.

I know it's state owned but very much run as a private sector company really, no? With a Brit at the helm of course.

Foxy said:

geoffw said:

Nigelb said:

This should be of huge significance. While it’s a compromise to accommodate Russia friendly Hungary, it affects two thirds or more of oil exports to the EU.

EU leaders agree to partial embargo of Russian oil imports
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/30/eu-nears-compromise-agreement-for-partial-ban-on-russian-oil

Nevertheless they will be importing oil from somewhere and the oil market is a global market. Russia can sell its oil elsewhere, just with a bit of inconvenience. An ineffective policy masquerading as 'something' for the something-must-be-done mindset. Gas is different.

One difficulty is that dislike of what Russia is doing is mostly a European and North American thing. Africa, Middle East and Latin America are more mixed in opinion, and India remains pro-Russian.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/30/negative-views-of-russia-mainly-limited-to-western-liberal-democracies-poll-shows?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1653885569

My enemy's enemy is my friend is the prevailing attitude of "anti-colonialists". They don't care about the rights and wrongs of an unprovoked invasion of a peaceful country.

MattW said:

Morning all.

RochdalePioneers said:

Some of the people highly ranked on that list:
Braverman - who appears to be a pretend AG who disregards basics like the rule of law and foams on about Stalin

What's this Stalin thing about? I must have missed that.

Last week at AG's Questions. Emily Thornberry asks a question about if the AG never comments on her advise why two newspapers were copying from it verbatim and did she she leak it yes or no? Braverman starts a rambling non-answer. Thornberry says "yes or no" a few times from a sedentary position on the opposition front bench.

At which point Braverman unleashes her inner Patel and starts snarling on about patriotism, ending by saying her heroes are Churchill and Thatcher and that Thornberry's are "Corbyn and Stalin". At which point she firmly gets told to sit down and shut up by Madam Deputy Speaker.

OT: I see that Chinese researchers have (says the BBC R4 this morning) shown that drinking coffee means fewer people die.

So I've had an extra double espresso this AM so I live a bit longer.

I wonder of China has done a deal with Brazil?

(Done using some NHS data, so expect the 'Tories privatizing the NHS' conspiraloons to be out to play.)

IshmaelZ said:

Heathener said:

IshmaelZ said:

"I'm not leaving until the bailiffs come". That was the latest email sent to me from a tenant. This is the third tenant this year I am evicting due to rent arrears.

How nasty of you

Only sort of language these people understand

Not a joking matter though. Winter with homelessness and fuel crises and food unaffordable.

Edit

Ishmael apologies: I thought that was you. It was a quote from the article.

Doh.

Sandpit said:

IshmaelZ said:

"I'm not leaving until the bailiffs come". That was the latest email sent to me from a tenant. This is the third tenant this year I am evicting due to rent arrears.

In my entire landlord career of 20 years, I have never seen an environment turn so quickly and so badly – and that includes the financial crisis and pandemic. The amount of money owed in rental arrears is in the thousands of pounds and quickly rising. Supposedly good tenants are souring quickly and I am left wondering who I can trust."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/buy-to-let/had-evict-three-tenants-year-going-get-worse/

very very ominous

That’s worrying, especially that this downturn doesn’t appear (yet!) to have high unemployment associated with it.

Is it a warning of unemployment to come, or is it a regulatory issue, that tenants have collectively realised they can get away for months without paying rent before they get evicted?

Or is it that their other bills have gone so high that they cannot pay them all, and have defaulted on the rent.

Foxy said:

geoffw said:

Foxy said:

geoffw said:

Nigelb said:

This should be of huge significance. While it’s a compromise to accommodate Russia friendly Hungary, it affects two thirds or more of oil exports to the EU.

EU leaders agree to partial embargo of Russian oil imports
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/30/eu-nears-compromise-agreement-for-partial-ban-on-russian-oil

Nevertheless they will be importing oil from somewhere and the oil market is a global market. Russia can sell its oil elsewhere, just with a bit of inconvenience. An ineffective policy masquerading as 'something' for the something-must-be-done mindset. Gas is different.

One difficulty is that dislike of what Russia is doing is mostly a European and North American thing. Africa, Middle East and Latin America are more mixed in opinion, and India remains pro-Russian.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/30/negative-views-of-russia-mainly-limited-to-western-liberal-democracies-poll-shows?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1653885569

My enemy's enemy is my friend is the prevailing attitude of "anti-colonialists". They don't care about the rights and wrongs of an unprovoked invasion of a peaceful country.

Yes, though I would understand from India a dislike of invasion and occupation accompanied by famine.

The practical issue though is that these countries will not support tough sanctions on Russia. Indeed would Britons be keen if they made the mental connection between sanctions and the price of their heating?

"would Britons …" , moreso than Germans it seems.

SouthamObserver said:

Nigelb said:

This should be of huge significance. While it’s a compromise to accommodate Russia friendly Hungary, it affects two thirds or more of oil exports to the EU.

EU leaders agree to partial embargo of Russian oil imports
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/30/eu-nears-compromise-agreement-for-partial-ban-on-russian-oil

Who could possibly have imagined that Viktor Orban - the man who destroyed Hungarian democracy, the darling of the right in the UK and the US - would turn out to be Putin's principal European ally?

You mean that Brexit Britain actually turned out to be nothing like Orban’s Hungary? Colour me shocked!

Sandpit said:

IshmaelZ said:

"I'm not leaving until the bailiffs come". That was the latest email sent to me from a tenant. This is the third tenant this year I am evicting due to rent arrears.

In my entire landlord career of 20 years, I have never seen an environment turn so quickly and so badly – and that includes the financial crisis and pandemic. The amount of money owed in rental arrears is in the thousands of pounds and quickly rising. Supposedly good tenants are souring quickly and I am left wondering who I can trust."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/buy-to-let/had-evict-three-tenants-year-going-get-worse/

very very ominous

That’s worrying, especially that this downturn doesn’t appear (yet!) to have high unemployment associated with it.

Is it a warning of unemployment to come, or is it a regulatory issue, that tenants have collectively realised they can get away for months without paying rent before they get evicted?

I think it’s probably rampant inflation eating away at their disposable income. Something has to give and they’ve twigged they can, as you say, fail to pay and get away with it for several months.

What they do next is a different question. Councils are going to find it really expensive housing so many evicted tenants in anything other than council houses and they’ve not got enough of those already.

Heathener said:

swing_voter said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

As suggested at the time, Number 10 destroying heir-apparent Rishi Sunak may have been a pyrrhic victory endangering Boris by giving every other would-be heir or faction a realistic chance of victory.

The moment to move (if they choose to) is close - we are on the edge of June and if the Conservatives want a new leader by conference they need to move in June. I cant imagine the mentality of Tory MPs, they used to be ruthless in their pursuit of retaining power - are they really that fearful of Big Dog?

Yes I think this is 'it'. Now or never, 'now' being through to end of June after the by-elections.

Expect really nasty tactics from team Dog Turd. Everything under the sun short of murder.

I think you are mixing up your memes.

“Dog turd” is Amber Heard not BoJo… one’s a BPD abuser taking advantage of a battered and confused victim… the other is a Texan.

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:

The queues we are seeing at the UK's airports currently tell you so much about how crap senior managements often are in the private sector. They took a short-term decision to save money during covid by laying off a shedload of staff and are now inflicting the inevitable long-term consequences of that on their customers. It's the British business malaise laid bear - we are incapable of seeing beyond the end of our noses. We lionise those who cut costs as people who take the hard decisions. But there is nothing tough about doing it. It's easy. Any fool can do it. But there is almost always a price to pay. As ever, the idea that the private sector knows best is revealed by real life to be a load of old pony.

I can understand the need for a business to lay off a chunk of its staff in a downturn. There's no work for you - sorry - so here's some cash to go away and when things pick up replacement hires are easy. Harder to justify if its a megabucks company, much easier if its small and on the brink.

But the play only works if "replacement hires are easy". And what seems to have caught the airport companies with their pants down is the new environment we find ourselves in post-Covid. A whole stack of people - 610k - have decided they may as well stop working completely. Which means big pockets of unfillable jobs in key sectors in certain places.

Which is how we find ourselves here - airports unable to hire the staff they need to function as an airport. As the likes of Manchestoh Airport are council owned and have had months I assume this isn't a salary issue as they must have been offering more and more money to bring in anyone they can get. So its conditions - people just don't want to do the work, don't need to do the work as other jobs available, and likely some could be tempted but shift work and they have kids.

Manchester Airport - to take one example - was not a small business on the brink. It could have kept all its staff on, but chose not to. Because staff are disposable and can easily be replaced. Can't they? Better treatment and relations with staff equals a better job being done equals happier customers. Why haven't companies understood this?

The relentless short-termism is so depressingly self-destructive. Cutting staff numbers is always described as "tough". Those who do it are lionised as hard-headed business pragmatists, willing to make the difficult calls. That they never think through the consequences of such decisions gets much less attention.

I've been in the position of being the senior manager saying "we need to cut staff" - the choice was reduce the wage bill or fold very quickly. Then furlough came along and I was the senior manager banging the drum to put most people onto it. Including myself. And when that didn't work I recommended we cut staff. Myself included.

I know that some companies have this cycle of "fire people and make those who are left work harder". But for many during the last 2 years the choice was fire / furlough or fold. But that doesn't include the likes of Manchester Airport who could have kept people on and then been able to function when the recovery came.

Totally agree.

Foxy said:

geoffw said:

Nigelb said:

This should be of huge significance. While it’s a compromise to accommodate Russia friendly Hungary, it affects two thirds or more of oil exports to the EU.

EU leaders agree to partial embargo of Russian oil imports
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/30/eu-nears-compromise-agreement-for-partial-ban-on-russian-oil

Nevertheless they will be importing oil from somewhere and the oil market is a global market. Russia can sell its oil elsewhere, just with a bit of inconvenience. An ineffective policy masquerading as 'something' for the something-must-be-done mindset. Gas is different.

One difficulty is that dislike of what Russia is doing is mostly a European and North American thing. Africa, Middle East and Latin America are more mixed in opinion, and India remains pro-Russian.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/30/negative-views-of-russia-mainly-limited-to-western-liberal-democracies-poll-shows?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1653885569

It’s a kind of mirror image of recurring pin head dancing on refugees, ie it’s not racist to have more sympathy for white Christian Ukrainian refugees who have dishwashers = why should we care too much about what is being done to thousands of Ukes when the same and worse has been happening to millions of black, brown and yellow people for years.

Of course the UK in best having and eating cake style manages to loudly virtual signal over Ukraine while being obstructive over accepting refugees - win, win!

Sandpit said:

IshmaelZ said:

"I'm not leaving until the bailiffs come". That was the latest email sent to me from a tenant. This is the third tenant this year I am evicting due to rent arrears.

In my entire landlord career of 20 years, I have never seen an environment turn so quickly and so badly – and that includes the financial crisis and pandemic. The amount of money owed in rental arrears is in the thousands of pounds and quickly rising. Supposedly good tenants are souring quickly and I am left wondering who I can trust."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/buy-to-let/had-evict-three-tenants-year-going-get-worse/

very very ominous

That’s worrying, especially that this downturn doesn’t appear (yet!) to have high unemployment associated with it.

Is it a warning of unemployment to come, or is it a regulatory issue, that tenants have collectively realised they can get away for months without paying rent before they get evicted?

10m Brits skipped a meal last month because of affordability.

The change is not to do with either unemployment or regulations, just affordability.

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

IshmaelZ said:

"I'm not leaving until the bailiffs come". That was the latest email sent to me from a tenant. This is the third tenant this year I am evicting due to rent arrears.

In my entire landlord career of 20 years, I have never seen an environment turn so quickly and so badly – and that includes the financial crisis and pandemic. The amount of money owed in rental arrears is in the thousands of pounds and quickly rising. Supposedly good tenants are souring quickly and I am left wondering who I can trust."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/buy-to-let/had-evict-three-tenants-year-going-get-worse/

very very ominous

That’s worrying, especially that this downturn doesn’t appear (yet!) to have high unemployment associated with it.

Is it a warning of unemployment to come, or is it a regulatory issue, that tenants have collectively realised they can get away for months without paying rent before they get evicted?

I think it’s probably rampant inflation eating away at their disposable income. Something has to give and they’ve twigged they can, as you say, fail to pay and get away with it for several months.

What they do next is a different question. Councils are going to find it really expensive housing so many evicted tenants in anything other than council houses and they’ve not got enough of those already.

Rents are stupidly high. People pay them because they need somewhere to live. And while some people saved money during the pandemic, others ate into their reserves. So when prices go up, they have little wriggle-room.

Could just be the start of the buy-to-let bubble bursting.

Sandpit said:

IshmaelZ said:

"I'm not leaving until the bailiffs come". That was the latest email sent to me from a tenant. This is the third tenant this year I am evicting due to rent arrears.

In my entire landlord career of 20 years, I have never seen an environment turn so quickly and so badly – and that includes the financial crisis and pandemic. The amount of money owed in rental arrears is in the thousands of pounds and quickly rising. Supposedly good tenants are souring quickly and I am left wondering who I can trust."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/buy-to-let/had-evict-three-tenants-year-going-get-worse/

very very ominous

That’s worrying, especially that this downturn doesn’t appear (yet!) to have high unemployment associated with it.

Is it a warning of unemployment to come, or is it a regulatory issue, that tenants have collectively realised they can get away for months without paying rent before they get evicted?

It's not really enough information to be useful imo, because we are not told.

We know some things from the profile. The portfolio is geographically spread countrywide, so there will be management fees on everything, which will be costing 13-15% of total income. We know that there has not been major investment in energy efficiency, because it was being written about as a challenge in 2021 by the Secret Landlord - sensible people did that when they renovated or refurbished from about 2014 on and took advantage of the wide range of schemes available throughout.

That would have protected Ts from rising expenses, but it has not been done. Some of mine are challenged, but their bills are 30-40% below what they would have been, so significantly mitigated.
(https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/buy-to-let/landlord-20-years-everything-learnt/)

We don't know where his problems are, or what sort of tenants they are with. Or what rent levels are charged. Or how hard he drives his rents wrt market - where is his balance between long-term tenancies and maximum rents? It's a choice.

It can't be job losses, as we have full employment.

And arrears significant enough to cause eviction do not occur overnight - it would normally be several months at least. Given that there is a large portfolio, "thousands of ££" could still be quite marginal.

IMO we are not told enough.

SouthamObserver said:

StillWaters said:

SouthamObserver said:

Nigelb said:

This should be of huge significance. While it’s a compromise to accommodate Russia friendly Hungary, it affects two thirds or more of oil exports to the EU.

EU leaders agree to partial embargo of Russian oil imports
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/30/eu-nears-compromise-agreement-for-partial-ban-on-russian-oil

Who could possibly have imagined that Viktor Orban - the man who destroyed Hungarian democracy, the darling of the right in the UK and the US - would turn out to be Putin's principal European ally?

You mean that Brexit Britain actually turned out to be nothing like Orban’s Hungary? Colour me shocked!

Hmmm - relentless government grift and lies, criminalising peaceful protest, taking away the Electoral Commission's independence, making it harder to vote, bypassing Parliament, reducing the power of the courts to scrutinise the executive, placemen in media oversight positions, walking away from international treaty commitments. Where could this government possibly have got those ideas from?

I’m old enough to remember Brexiteers boosting Orban & Hungary as part of the awkward squad that would ally with the UK in the great patriotic war against the EU.

Heathener said:

Good piece on Johnson's 'red meat policy' lurch to the right:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/30/johnsons-red-meat-policy-proposals-are-telling-of-his-insecurity

"It is a moment often seen in the downward trajectory of embattled prime ministers: a whirl of new policy ideas intended to appeal to voters, but which are in fact more often aimed at placating their own MPs. Boris Johnson is, some would argue, approaching this point.

In recent days Downing Street has briefed in favour of grammar schools and imperial measurements. Earlier weeks saw forays into other Conservative comfort zones, including bashing the EU and talking up fossil fuels.

Such nostalgia politics is routinely promoted by Conservative backbenchers. But it is one of the paradoxes of Tory party politics that the more secure a prime minister is in office, the less they have to indulge these ideas."

If Johnson loses both by-elections he'll have to go Full Tonto and offer a vote on fox hunting.

Dura_Ace said:

Heathener said:

Good piece on Johnson's 'red meat policy' lurch to the right:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/30/johnsons-red-meat-policy-proposals-are-telling-of-his-insecurity

"It is a moment often seen in the downward trajectory of embattled prime ministers: a whirl of new policy ideas intended to appeal to voters, but which are in fact more often aimed at placating their own MPs. Boris Johnson is, some would argue, approaching this point.

In recent days Downing Street has briefed in favour of grammar schools and imperial measurements. Earlier weeks saw forays into other Conservative comfort zones, including bashing the EU and talking up fossil fuels.

Such nostalgia politics is routinely promoted by Conservative backbenchers. But it is one of the paradoxes of Tory party politics that the more secure a prime minister is in office, the less they have to indulge these ideas."

If Johnson loses both by-elections he'll have to go Full Tonto and offer a vote on fox hunting.

Pritis 24 election manifesto will be led by the restoration of the death penalty, not just for cop killers but also random foxes.

IshmaelZ said:

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

IshmaelZ said:

"I'm not leaving until the bailiffs come". That was the latest email sent to me from a tenant. This is the third tenant this year I am evicting due to rent arrears.

In my entire landlord career of 20 years, I have never seen an environment turn so quickly and so badly – and that includes the financial crisis and pandemic. The amount of money owed in rental arrears is in the thousands of pounds and quickly rising. Supposedly good tenants are souring quickly and I am left wondering who I can trust."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/buy-to-let/had-evict-three-tenants-year-going-get-worse/

very very ominous

That’s worrying, especially that this downturn doesn’t appear (yet!) to have high unemployment associated with it.

Is it a warning of unemployment to come, or is it a regulatory issue, that tenants have collectively realised they can get away for months without paying rent before they get evicted?

I think it’s probably rampant inflation eating away at their disposable income. Something has to give and they’ve twigged they can, as you say, fail to pay and get away with it for several months.

What they do next is a different question. Councils are going to find it really expensive housing so many evicted tenants in anything other than council houses and they’ve not got enough of those already.

Well, OK. I think it is a bit 19th century to regard the existence of tenant protection as a problem, and their relying on it as "getting away with it." But then, I am not a landlord

I think the tenants are a bit buggered if they try to do the decent thing anyway, aren't they, because the council can then label them intentionally homeless?

Yes.

"I'm not leaving until the bailiffs come" is very often a Council forcing a T to stay as long as possible so they don't have to provide accommodation. It's been a problem forever.

It also forces the T to get a CCJ plus a couple of thousand extra debt (current court costs) in order to get a priority on the Council list, which means they get no credit for the next 6 years plus the extra debt. It is an abusive policy.

And it's a game that Councils have played forever.

Another one is to go into an HMO and register each room for a Band A council tax as a separate dwelling.

Stereodog said:

The weird thing about this poll is that Johnson is rated so low yet ministers such as Barclay and Braverman who exist only to enable and apologise for him are rated highly.

I'm never sure who this "poll" actually represents.

Is it Tory members of whom only a subset read ConHome, or registered readers of ConHome - many of whom are patently not Tories?

IshmaelZ said:

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

IshmaelZ said:

"I'm not leaving until the bailiffs come". That was the latest email sent to me from a tenant. This is the third tenant this year I am evicting due to rent arrears.

In my entire landlord career of 20 years, I have never seen an environment turn so quickly and so badly – and that includes the financial crisis and pandemic. The amount of money owed in rental arrears is in the thousands of pounds and quickly rising. Supposedly good tenants are souring quickly and I am left wondering who I can trust."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/buy-to-let/had-evict-three-tenants-year-going-get-worse/

very very ominous

That’s worrying, especially that this downturn doesn’t appear (yet!) to have high unemployment associated with it.

Is it a warning of unemployment to come, or is it a regulatory issue, that tenants have collectively realised they can get away for months without paying rent before they get evicted?

I think it’s probably rampant inflation eating away at their disposable income. Something has to give and they’ve twigged they can, as you say, fail to pay and get away with it for several months.

What they do next is a different question. Councils are going to find it really expensive housing so many evicted tenants in anything other than council houses and they’ve not got enough of those already.

Well, OK. I think it is a bit 19th century to regard the existence of tenant protection as a problem, and their relying on it as "getting away with it." But then, I am not a landlord

I think the tenants are a bit buggered if they try to do the decent thing anyway, aren't they, because the council can then label them intentionally homeless?

Yes. I was once warned not to try and assist a family in rent arrears financially for that reason.

As for getting away with it, well, they're not paying money they owe and facing no immediate sanction due to the collapse of the legal system. What would you call it?

The bigger issue is the lack of grown-up thinking ont he part of landlords. If a good tenant gets into difficulty and can't pay the full whack, the first thing they should consider is asking for a temporary reduction in the rent. But most won't bother because they know their landlords won't wear it. Which is stupid of the landlords, who will then get nothing at all, have huge legal bills and lose a good tenant.

Bad tenants of course are a somewhat different case, but there are plenty of people who will otherwise have impeccable records feeling the strain right now, and a wise landlord would consider that.

Sandpit said:

Nigelb said:

Report from Kharkiv on Putin’s war on civilians.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/05/29/how-war-has-changed-ukraines-second-city
… Quick thinking saved the first-year psychology student from probable death: she ran from her kitchen to the bathroom as soon as she heard the first thuds. By the time the artillery reached her flat on Shakespeare Street on the afternoon of May 26th, slicing through the сhestnut trees to land outside her window, Ms Rebenko was two walls away from the impact. She walked away with minor cuts. At least nine others ended up in the morgue. Dina Kirsanova, a shopkeeper at a milk kiosk near the 23 August metro station, the main target of the strikes, saw at least 15 missiles in the sky. Air defences intercepted most of them, she said, preventing even greater loss of life: “It’s beyond cruel. There are no military positions here. Just simple people, trying to survive.”..

More propaganda, Luckyguy1983 ?

Civilians do appear to be targets for the Russians - which is odd, given that his stated aim is to liberate them from the Nazis. Not sure how killing them helps with that.

They didnt welcome the Russisn army with open arms, therefore they must be part of the nazi regime of course.

Carrie Antionette strikes again...

The head housekeeper at Chequers has resigned after claims of tensions with Carrie Johnson https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chequers-housekeeper-forced-out-by-clash-with-carrie-johnson-86jmv0ljd?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1653952429-1

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:

The queues we are seeing at the UK's airports currently tell you so much about how crap senior managements often are in the private sector. They took a short-term decision to save money during covid by laying off a shedload of staff and are now inflicting the inevitable long-term consequences of that on their customers. It's the British business malaise laid bear - we are incapable of seeing beyond the end of our noses. We lionise those who cut costs as people who take the hard decisions. But there is nothing tough about doing it. It's easy. Any fool can do it. But there is almost always a price to pay. As ever, the idea that the private sector knows best is revealed by real life to be a load of old pony.

I can understand the need for a business to lay off a chunk of its staff in a downturn. There's no work for you - sorry - so here's some cash to go away and when things pick up replacement hires are easy. Harder to justify if its a megabucks company, much easier if its small and on the brink.

But the play only works if "replacement hires are easy". And what seems to have caught the airport companies with their pants down is the new environment we find ourselves in post-Covid. A whole stack of people - 610k - have decided they may as well stop working completely. Which means big pockets of unfillable jobs in key sectors in certain places.

Which is how we find ourselves here - airports unable to hire the staff they need to function as an airport. As the likes of Manchestoh Airport are council owned and have had months I assume this isn't a salary issue as they must have been offering more and more money to bring in anyone they can get. So its conditions - people just don't want to do the work, don't need to do the work as other jobs available, and likely some could be tempted but shift work and they have kids.

Manchester Airport - to take one example - was not a small business on the brink. It could have kept all its staff on, but chose not to. Because staff are disposable and can easily be replaced. Can't they? Better treatment and relations with staff equals a better job being done equals happier customers. Why haven't companies understood this?

AIUI the problem is the security clearance. They can't start to train till they get it. It takes weeks. By the time it arrives they've found other work.

We have the same with DBR checks. We appoint staff, but they get a job elsewhere before they can start.

Sandpit said:

dixiedean said:

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:

The queues we are seeing at the UK's airports currently tell you so much about how crap senior managements often are in the private sector. They took a short-term decision to save money during covid by laying off a shedload of staff and are now inflicting the inevitable long-term consequences of that on their customers. It's the British business malaise laid bear - we are incapable of seeing beyond the end of our noses. We lionise those who cut costs as people who take the hard decisions. But there is nothing tough about doing it. It's easy. Any fool can do it. But there is almost always a price to pay. As ever, the idea that the private sector knows best is revealed by real life to be a load of old pony.

I can understand the need for a business to lay off a chunk of its staff in a downturn. There's no work for you - sorry - so here's some cash to go away and when things pick up replacement hires are easy. Harder to justify if its a megabucks company, much easier if its small and on the brink.

But the play only works if "replacement hires are easy". And what seems to have caught the airport companies with their pants down is the new environment we find ourselves in post-Covid. A whole stack of people - 610k - have decided they may as well stop working completely. Which means big pockets of unfillable jobs in key sectors in certain places.

Which is how we find ourselves here - airports unable to hire the staff they need to function as an airport. As the likes of Manchestoh Airport are council owned and have had months I assume this isn't a salary issue as they must have been offering more and more money to bring in anyone they can get. So its conditions - people just don't want to do the work, don't need to do the work as other jobs available, and likely some could be tempted but shift work and they have kids.

Manchester Airport - to take one example - was not a small business on the brink. It could have kept all its staff on, but chose not to. Because staff are disposable and can easily be replaced. Can't they? Better treatment and relations with staff equals a better job being done equals happier customers. Why haven't companies understood this?

AIUI the problem is the security clearance. They can't start to train till they get it. It takes weeks. By the time it arrives they've found other work.

That’s a good point. A lot of laid-off or found-better-jobs workers at airports will have had airside passes, so finding replacements takes a lot longer.

They should put the new staff on payroll immediately, have them classroom training, and start moaning loudly about whichever government agency (MI5?) issues security clearances.

It’s alright, the Government has committed to cutting the number of civil servants, which will solve this problem by… um… oh, look, do you want to buy those mangoes in pounds and ounces?