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These are the numbers that should really panic Number 10 – politicalbetting.com

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  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    ping said:

    Andy_JS said:

    There was a brief moment in the 1990s when British airports seemed to work like clockwork about 95% of the time, even in peak times like school holidays. It shows how easy it is to go backwards.

    I strongly suspect the explanation for the situation we are now in is that it’s the consequence of low cost flights. The airlines and the airports have cut every possible bit of slack and reduced wages to unappealing levels. When it works, it’s great, but there’s no redundancy.
    I pretty much exclusively travel club class BA (because Amex). My dedicated check in, fast track, champers in the lounge, meals on board, basically mean its the same as air travel in the 90s. Bliss!

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,156
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MISTY said:

    Leon said:

    As the Labour lead has increased since Rishi Sunak gave everyone £9,000, a bag of second hand salt, and a tiny inflatable plastic wildebeest, one has to wonder what would have happened if he had NOT been so generous. Would the Labour lead be 20 points plus? Or have the voters just banked the money and decided, Well, the Tories are mad spaffing socialists, I might as well support Labour - ie, would the Tories be doing better if they were meaner and more Tory?

    It is certainly possible

    When in power, labour can be relied on to be labour.

    The tories, by their actions over the last two and half years, cannot be relied to on be anything. From the moment they adopted the Chinese Communist Party policy of lockdown, on top of the Maoist arbitrary hard target of Net Zero by 2050 At All Costs, they were finished.

    And I think they are finished. Not just now, and not just for a generation. For ever.

    How could they ever sell themselves to the electorate as anything again? It would be like Hal the computer in A Space Odyssey telling Dave he was alright now.

    I'm feeling much better now voters. I favour low taxation. I favour personal responsibility. I want a small state and fiscal discipline. I want law and order. Mr sThatcher is my heroine. All as the voters shut the whole thing down.

    A new party/brand on the right will have to replace them.

    The Tories are indeed in deep shit, but both sides have tremendous problems

    Here is just one for Labour. Brexit

    If the polls continue fair for Starmer, and the Tories keep smashing themselves in the face with a shovel, he could actually win a majority. What would he do with that majority? Suddenly he has all the reins of power, he doesn’t have to rely on the Nats or the Libs.

    In that case I think he would come under intense pressure to reverse Brexit in some form. Not immediately rejoin, not yet, but re-enter the Single Market, accept Freedom of Movement again. Everyone around him is a Remainer, he is a Remainer, his friends and allies: they are all Remainers. They won’t be able to resist moving closer to the EU. They might be able to sell it as making life easier for traders and exporters, etc etc

    And that way lies much trouble
    Brexit was a manifesto of madness. A policy designed for gullible fools. The only thing worse would now be to try and reverse it. It isn't going to happen. If that is the only straw that The Clown has to cling to then Labour will win a majority.
    I’m not talking about Rejoin. I’m talking about an EFTA/EEA arrangement, solving a lot of the ongoing Brexit problems

    And, by the by, regaining Freedom of Movement

    This will be intensely seductive for Keir “2nd vote” Starmer, and 95% of his allies and supporters
    Sounds ideal. I'd be happy with that. Probably inevitable so I would stop worrying about it.
    I’m not “worrying”. I’m sitting on my ridiculously ramshackle new Tbilisi terrace staring across the old town at Shameba cathedral sipping cold white Georgian wine as I listen to the small children argue in Ossetian just below me

    It’s brilliant.




    I too would be OK with Freedom of Movement restored. But many won’t be. Yet that is the direction PM Starmer will want to go, emotionally
    Have you tried the qvevri yet? What did you think?
    What is qvevri? I’m trying a lot of wine, is that the amber coloured one? If so, yes. I have, and its delicious
    These:


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited May 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    AN APPEAL TO PRACTICAL PB-ERS

    I am out here in Tbilisi with an expensive piece of big luggage which is close to collapsing. Simply because I travel so much. Zips are fraying. Wheels are loosening

    Now a steel rod has sprung from the casing and making it almost unusable. See here




    That’s nasty. The metal is also strong and rigid. It won’t just snap off. I’ve tried. What can I do? I’m not sure I can find high quality luggage in Tbilisi to replace it

    If I could just get 1-2 more months of use out of this suitcase, I can replace it when I get back to london. Or should I give upon on this bag and scour the Caucasus for a replacement?

    Doesn't an International man of mystery such as your self carry a Gerber/Leatherman (alongside your other flint knapping tools) for such an emergency?

    Any why the effete zipped bag? Get your self a Samsonite hardshell (with wheels)
    I thought he'd bought a dozen of them (or cheap knockoff) in the US ?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,156
    edited May 2022

    MattW said:

    Applicant said:

    .

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    dixiedean said:

    Top tip.
    Professional landlords. Solve your financial problems by simply getting a proper job.

    Why is providing high quality housing services not a proper job?

    Houses don't maintain or invest in themselves. Traditionally 15-20% or so of the income goes on maintenance and investment, often done in advance during a full refurbishment with a 10 year+ return period.
    So they’re doing 15-20% of a proper job?

    What?

    You think that businesses are only entitled to one element of their business expenses, and no income?

    So a butcher is only entitled to the money paid for meat supplies, and not the revenue that pays for the shop, the staff expenses, the tax and the maintenance of the finance which allowed investment in the business?
    I think a butcher makes a small % on top of their costs whereas a landlord makes a very large %. There is a reason why economics has the term “rent seeking”.
    Your evidence of that? And that whatever the % is is universally unreasonable?

    Bearing in mind the 30-100k investment that may have been made upfront in a refurbishment.

    If rents consistently increase more slowly than inflation (which is true), and the quality of accommodation consistently increases (which it does), that actually suggests that it is working quite well.
    What about the large number of BTL landlords who use the rent to pay their mortgage?
    What about it? Businesses need money to invest to create a high quality service.

    It's not as if it can be done on zero capital - the max mortgage available is usually around 75%, so 25% cash plus Mr Osborne's 3% CGT surcharge, plus the transaction fees which are usually a couple of thousand or a small %, plus whatever needs to be spent on refurb.

    Obvs the lower the % loan the better the terms - going to 60% is normally worth 0.5-0.75% off the interest rate, bit it will still be 1% or so higher than the comparable for an owner occupier purchase.
    Anyone who thinks that small scale landlordism is a path to idle wealth doesn’t know what they’re talking about.

    I mean, it might have been, about ten years ago or something…
    If you like I can explain the near 5k I laid out last autumn to get "landlord licences" for 2 of the highest quality student lets in a Midlands City, and the gormless regulation it was necessary to engage with ... :smile: . Its absolutely routine for Local Councils to try and include unlawful terms in their license requirements; they have to be watched like a hawk.

    If it is sold within the 5 year term, continuing under the same professional lettings management, they simply expire and another 5k has to be laid out.

    It's the regulation that is rent-seeking.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited May 2022
    "Exclusive: Lord's faces embarrassment of 20,000 empty seats for Test match
    England's match against New Zealand is specially dedicated to the Queen's Platinum Jubilee and marks the start of the Stokes-McCullum era"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2022/05/30/exclusive-lords-face-embarrassment-20000-empty-seats-test-match

    I was thinking of going to this but I'm not paying around £150 when most of the seats are empty.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2022/05/31/160-ticket-arrogant-mcc-touch-cricket-fans/

    "£160 for a Lord's ticket? Arrogant MCC is out of touch with cricket fans
    If MCC is going to be a business, then it is about time it learned how to be one properly, learning something about its customers and market"
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    I’ve actually got a wire cutter. But this is super strong steel. it scoffs at my attempts to sever it. Needs a metal saw, or enormous wire cutters that you use to steal bikes, as others have said

    You need to fatigue it. Bend it back and forth a lot. The metal will work harden and eventually shear
    Thanks. Sincerely. But I’ve tried that too! This steel is something else. It won’t even bend, nothing, not even with pliers

    i guess it is a tribute to the makers: Victorinox

    I’ve even tried heating it with a candle to make it melt at a crucial point, allowing me to snap it. Doesn’t work either
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,251

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    dixiedean said:

    Top tip.
    Professional landlords. Solve your financial problems by simply getting a proper job.

    Why is providing high quality housing services not a proper job?

    Houses don't maintain or invest in themselves. Traditionally 15-20% or so of the income goes on maintenance and investment, often done in advance during a full refurbishment with a 10 year+ return period.
    So they’re doing 15-20% of a proper job?

    What?

    You think that businesses are only entitled to one element of their business expenses, and no income?

    So a butcher is only entitled to the money paid for meat supplies, and not the revenue that pays for the shop, the staff expenses, the tax and the maintenance of the finance which allowed investment in the business?
    I think a butcher makes a small % on top of their costs whereas a landlord makes a very large %. There is a reason why economics has the term “rent seeking”.
    Capital has a cost as well
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MISTY said:

    Leon said:

    As the Labour lead has increased since Rishi Sunak gave everyone £9,000, a bag of second hand salt, and a tiny inflatable plastic wildebeest, one has to wonder what would have happened if he had NOT been so generous. Would the Labour lead be 20 points plus? Or have the voters just banked the money and decided, Well, the Tories are mad spaffing socialists, I might as well support Labour - ie, would the Tories be doing better if they were meaner and more Tory?

    It is certainly possible

    When in power, labour can be relied on to be labour.

    The tories, by their actions over the last two and half years, cannot be relied to on be anything. From the moment they adopted the Chinese Communist Party policy of lockdown, on top of the Maoist arbitrary hard target of Net Zero by 2050 At All Costs, they were finished.

    And I think they are finished. Not just now, and not just for a generation. For ever.

    How could they ever sell themselves to the electorate as anything again? It would be like Hal the computer in A Space Odyssey telling Dave he was alright now.

    I'm feeling much better now voters. I favour low taxation. I favour personal responsibility. I want a small state and fiscal discipline. I want law and order. Mr sThatcher is my heroine. All as the voters shut the whole thing down.

    A new party/brand on the right will have to replace them.

    The Tories are indeed in deep shit, but both sides have tremendous problems

    Here is just one for Labour. Brexit

    If the polls continue fair for Starmer, and the Tories keep smashing themselves in the face with a shovel, he could actually win a majority. What would he do with that majority? Suddenly he has all the reins of power, he doesn’t have to rely on the Nats or the Libs.

    In that case I think he would come under intense pressure to reverse Brexit in some form. Not immediately rejoin, not yet, but re-enter the Single Market, accept Freedom of Movement again. Everyone around him is a Remainer, he is a Remainer, his friends and allies: they are all Remainers. They won’t be able to resist moving closer to the EU. They might be able to sell it as making life easier for traders and exporters, etc etc

    And that way lies much trouble
    Brexit was a manifesto of madness. A policy designed for gullible fools. The only thing worse would now be to try and reverse it. It isn't going to happen. If that is the only straw that The Clown has to cling to then Labour will win a majority.
    I’m not talking about Rejoin. I’m talking about an EFTA/EEA arrangement, solving a lot of the ongoing Brexit problems

    And, by the by, regaining Freedom of Movement

    This will be intensely seductive for Keir “2nd vote” Starmer, and 95% of his allies and supporters
    Paradoxically I think a deal for reciprocal free movement (that any future government could amend) would be less politically toxic than regulatory alignment by stealth.
    But we have full regulatory alignment. And as Rees-Mogg announced that to deviate would be "self-harm" that isn't going to change. Has anyone noticed? Does anyone care? Find me a normal who voted for Brexit because they wanted to end regulatory alignment. Or knew what that even was. They wanted an end to Brussels telling us we couldn't sell straight bananas. They know have that as no such ban existed anyway.
    You're being deliberately obtuse. Rees-Mogg was talking about border checks, not regulatory alignment. Saying, "We trust EU regulations on food for the moment so border checks are a burden we don't need," is not the same as saying, "We want the EU to make our own laws in perpetuity."
    1. They decide on food standards etc
    2. We're never going to check them
    3. Our food industry keeps the same standards it has now - EU standards - and just updates as they improve
    4. As we're never checking stuff coming in the EU standard remains the defacto UK one. Government can't impose a new standard it isn't willing to police.

    So yes, that's quite literally what he just announced. Remember that the lifespan of these wazzocks in office is at most another 30 months, likely not even that in weeks.
    Eh? Is that 'taking back control'?
This discussion has been closed.