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Voting intention – the educational divide – politicalbetting.com

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  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,062
    .

    As a tax payer I would have been happy to personally pay the postage to send Johnson the three questionnaires the Met inadvertently forgot to send him.

    Andrew Bridgen has now declared Johnson has been given a clean bill of health, so all is good.
    Have you seen the price of stamps these days? 95p, or more if it is a long (and heavy) questionnaire.
    https://www.royalmail.com/sending/uk/1st-class
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Looks like my McCormick bet will bust. He's a thousand votes behind so that means a recount but unless there is something systemic he won't overhaul Oz.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,699
    ydoethur said:

    I am more interested to know how issuing a few questionnaires and FPNs and looking at a few photos could take up a sufficient amount of staff time to cost £460,000.

    They didn't even investigate properly, and most of the work had been done for them by Gray, so how on Earth could it come to that figure? That's the equivalent of hiring four full-time officers for a year.
    I imagine that’s the fully loaded cost.

    12 officers for 3 months = 4 for a year.

    Inclusive of overhead of office space, HR, risk management, secretarial support etc etc
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,418

    Evidence please.
    It'll come in time.

    For a start, Johnson seems to have been taken at his lawyer's word that all these events he attended he considered to be work and therefore was allowed. But social events at work were not allowed. The only event he has been done for is one that is a joke - a cake turned up at the end of a meeting. The other events were massive piss-ups and we've seen some photo evidence and there's more to come no doubt now that only the kids and the women have actually been fined.

    But, to be honest, what's the point anymore? I'm tired of it all. He's safe as houses until GE 2024.

    Hopefully enough voters are as angry as I am and will not have forgotten by 2024.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,356

    12 officers for three months. Sounds about right.
    If 12 officers worked full time on looking at 250 bits of paper for three months, they need the sack.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Andy_JS said:

    Of course that "won" figure is itself an estimate based on how safe a seat it.
    Which is why it's now 34.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,185
    ydoethur said:

    I am more interested to know how issuing a few questionnaires and FPNs and looking at a few photos could take up a sufficient amount of staff time to cost £460,000.

    They didn't even investigate properly, and most of the work had been done for them by Gray, so how on Earth could it come to that figure? That's the equivalent of hiring four full-time officers for a year.
    Just imagine how much more it would have cost had they actually investigated the events rather than just relying on Gray's report.

    For those of us not cheering for Team Johnson our incredulity is off the scale.

    Johnson aside, how did Case avoid a fine?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,185
    MrEd said:

    Sounds like the conspiracy theorists are out in force. Next we will have Big Dog saved by an unholy cabal of the Police, Freemasons and MI5
    Perhaps, because to the untrained eye, that is exactly what it looks like.

    The Save Big Dog Gant Chart did not deviate from the plan. Perfect!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    Evidence please.
    Yes certainly, here you go. 🙂

    Just the 1 FPN for the senior leadership group who created and and inspired this law breaking culture, the junior grades are the ones getting hammered for.

    Clear whitewash. Clear stink up the nose of every voter. Do you really Need anything else to know for yourself something is wrong here?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/12-times-boris-johnsons-tories-party-during-lockdown/
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    Certainly correct that the whole party gate thing is a govt stitchup


  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    I'm with @Mexicanpete. This has been a total establishment stitch-up to save the PM.

    It stinks to high heaven.



    Surprised by you @rottenborough, I didn’t think you would jump in the conspiracy theory angle.

    It’s unlikely to happen but, if Starmer gets a FPN, the collective head-exploding on here will be a sight to behold.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,356

    Just imagine how much more it would have cost had they actually investigated the events rather than just relying on Gray's report.

    For those of us not cheering for Team Johnson our incredulity is off the scale.

    Johnson aside, how did Case avoid a fine?
    Presumably in the same way he got to the top in the first place. Although what that is I don't know.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Yes certainly, here you go. 🙂

    Just the 1 FPN for the senior leadership group who created and and inspired this law breaking culture, the junior grades are the ones getting hammered for.

    Clear whitewash. Clear stink up the nose of every voter. Do you really Need anything else to know for yourself something is wrong here?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/12-times-boris-johnsons-tories-party-during-lockdown/
    That’s not evidence, that’s your interpretation of the facts ie an opinion
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131

    So hearsay and rumour. Ok.

    But if they didn’t expect the Gray report to be hijacked they are too naive to be in Downing Street.
    We all know words would have gone on behind the scenes in private and deals done its just how things work
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Perhaps, because to the untrained eye, that is exactly what it looks like.

    The Save Big Dog Gant Chart did not deviate from the plan. Perfect!
    Key word there is ‘untrained’.

    But, yes, remarkable how BJ has come through.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,062
    MrEd said:

    Sounds like the conspiracy theorists are out in force. Next we will have Big Dog saved by an unholy cabal of the Police, Freemasons and MI5
    Are you saying there was none? Anyway, at one level what saved Big Dog were his usual tactics of prevaricate and postpone. And it seems to have worked so well done, Boris!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    edited May 2022

    I imagine that’s the fully loaded cost.

    12 officers for 3 months = 4 for a year.

    Inclusive of overhead of office space, HR, risk management, secretarial support etc etc
    It did allow the Daily Mail, The open beergate daily mail, to complain on front page two days ago about the cost of investigating these pointless things 🤣
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,699

    It'll come in time.

    For a start, Johnson seems to have been taken at his lawyer's word that all these events he attended he considered to be work and therefore was allowed. But social events at work were not allowed. The only event he has been done for is one that is a joke - a cake turned up at the end of a meeting. The other events were massive piss-ups and we've seen some photo evidence and there's more to come no doubt now that only the kids and the women have actually been fined.

    But, to be honest, what's the point anymore? I'm tired of it all. He's safe as houses until GE 2024.

    Hopefully enough voters are as angry as I am and will not have forgotten by 2024.
    The only one I recall seeing pictures of is the garden party - there he was sitting with his wife and a couple of others. Everyone else in the garden appeared to be socially distanced groups. So it’s possible that Boris thought it was ok/ that it was a work meeting / drink with friends (I’ve lost track of what was allowed when).

    The zoom quiz he was on zoom from what I recall.

    But I’ve never really been interested
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,834

    Yes certainly, here you go. 🙂

    Just the 1 FPN for the senior leadership group who created and and inspired this law breaking culture, the junior grades are the ones getting hammered for.

    Clear whitewash. Clear stink up the nose of every voter. Do you really Need anything else to know for yourself something is wrong here?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/12-times-boris-johnsons-tories-party-during-lockdown/
    Need some juicy tell-all stories from disgruntled junior civil servants who got FPNs and since resigned.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,699

    Yes certainly, here you go. 🙂

    Just the 1 FPN for the senior leadership group who created and and inspired this law breaking culture, the junior grades are the ones getting hammered for.

    Clear whitewash. Clear stink up the nose of every voter. Do you really Need anything else to know for yourself something is wrong here?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/12-times-boris-johnsons-tories-party-during-lockdown/
    Culture not against the law.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Are you saying there was none? Anyway, at one level what saved Big Dog were his usual tactics of prevaricate and postpone. And it seems to have worked so well done, Boris!
    I’m saying that jumping to theories that BJ has been deliberately saved by the Police is not healthy.

    Let’s also put it the other way. If SKS doesn’t get issued a FPN by Durham and the Tories say it’s because the Commissioner there leant on the Police, would you not be claiming the Tories are being conspiracy theorists?

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    I'm sure Hyfud will correct me, but I don't believe there's a single seat where the Coalition is currently on course for a gain.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited May 2022
    MrEd said:

    That’s not evidence, that’s your interpretation of the facts ie an opinion
    Yes, well, that's how evidence works.

    Phatboi is a corrupt liar and this is a stitch up. THE END.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,699
    GaryL said:

    We all know words would have gone on behind the scenes in private and deals done its just how things work
    I’m not sure ruling out hearsay in favour of conspiracy theories is a move in the right direction
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131

    Are you saying there was none? Anyway, at one level what saved Big Dog were his usual tactics of prevaricate and postpone. And it seems to have worked so well done, Boris!
    So Mr Ed you think backroom deals never go on If you think that you are so naive you shouldn't be let out
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,215

    The fact that Brexit was being promoted by precisely the same people (Thatcherite ideologues backed by footloose capital) who had engineered the whole rich get richer while everyone else struggles shenanigans in the first place didn't seem to register with people.
    However Thatcher would not have approved at all of what the Tory party has become. Some of the disdain the likes of Clarke and Heseltine have for Bluekip would be shared by Thatcher, even if she would have been on the Brexit side.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,062
    Andy_JS said:

    Antony Green — hung parliament looks likely.

    Betfair, type of government:
    Coalition majority: 4.1
    Coalition minority: 4
    Labor majority: 1.03
    Labor minority: 2.18

    So if your man thinks there will be a minority government of either shade...

    There is a market on whether there will be a majority government but that is 1.03 each of two.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133

    Do you think that is sufficiently serious to prevent him ever working again in his chosen career?
    I can see why students don't want him as a supervisor.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,185

    The only one I recall seeing pictures of is the garden party - there he was sitting with his wife and a couple of others. Everyone else in the garden appeared to be socially distanced groups. So it’s possible that Boris thought it was ok/ that it was a work meeting / drink with friends (I’ve lost track of what was allowed when).

    The zoom quiz he was on zoom from what I recall.

    But I’ve never really been interested
    Well you should be. Imagine if Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn had led us down this garden path. You would be outraged.

    The wagons have been well and truly circled, but by whom is alarming.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I’m not sure ruling out hearsay in favour of conspiracy theories is a move in the right direction
    Dim. Almost everything you know, you know by hearsay. Conspiracy theory does not mean what you think it means.
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    MrEd said:

    I’m saying that jumping to theories that BJ has been deliberately saved by the Police is not healthy.

    Let’s also put it the other way. If SKS doesn’t get issued a FPN by Durham and the Tories say it’s because the Commissioner there leant on the Police, would you not be claiming the Tories are being conspiracy theorists?

    Why is it not healthy Mr Ed We have to face the reality of being run by a totally corrupt govt not Disney fantasies
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,673



    I am sure @NickPalmer would have a view, but in my experience the ability of an MP to chat to a minister in the lobby is a very valuable informal channel to ensure their constituents are looked after

    Interested in the "my experience" there - are you another former (or current) MP?

    It's very easy to talk to a Minister informally (especially in your party as you'll be in the same lobby, but easy anyway). The Minister will *always* say non-committally "send me the details and I'll have a look", and they can do that online too - even now, 12 years after leaving Parliament, I have friendly online contact with both front benches. So I'm not sure that meeting in the lobby is really al lthat important.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879

    I'm sure Hyfud will correct me, but I don't believe there's a single seat where the Coalition is currently on course for a gain.

    They are projected to gain Gilmore in NSW from Labor, albeit most of the gains are to Labor, Greens and Independents as is the national swing to Labor, albeit by less than the final polls
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    edited May 2022
    Labor now won 55 seats, Coalition 45, Others 5 and 45 in doubt
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 930

    I'm sure Hyfud will correct me, but I don't believe there's a single seat where the Coalition is currently on course for a gain.

    Gilmore potentially.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    Culture not against the law.
    I’m Yorkshire. I’m bluff. Give me the bottom line first.

    This is the bottom line.

    Conservative Politicians, past and current, would have owned this and resigned. The party would then have moved on.

    Don’t allow yourself to be distracted from this bottom line.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,910
    WA voting closed. ISTR a huge swing to Labor in the State election there. Are we expecting similar or what?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,185
    edited May 2022
    MrEd said:

    That’s not evidence, that’s your interpretation of the facts ie an opinion
    At least she's making an attempt to interpret the known facts. Twelve Met detectives didn't get that far "we're the Sweeney and we haven't had our dinner".
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited May 2022

    Interested in the "my experience" there - are you another former (or current) MP?

    It's very easy to talk to a Minister informally (especially in your party as you'll be in the same lobby, but easy anyway). The Minister will *always* say non-committally "send me the details and I'll have a look", and they can do that online too - even now, 12 years after leaving Parliament, I have friendly online contact with both front benches. So I'm not sure that meeting in the lobby is really al lthat important.
    How much of that informal contact is with people you didn’t know and meet when you were in Parliament?

    It’s more difficult to make new relationships in an online environment, than it is to maintain existing relationships.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,285
    2 party preferred at the moment:

    Lab 50.3%
    Coalition 49.7%
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    Carnyx said:

    They can't molest each other so easily. That's another advantage. And as for subsidised food, just give them £10- Luncheon Vouchers or the equivalent in M&S tokens.
    Or pass Anderson’s Rule and give them 30p per day for food.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Andy_JS said:

    2 party preferred at the moment:

    Lab 50.3%
    Coalition 49.7%

    Where are you getting that from (or are you calculating it)?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,287

    RP is consistent here.

    I believe Starmer and Rayner probably broke the letter of the law, and if the law is applied with rigour they must go simply because they said they would. Richard Holden and the Daily Mail and Telegraph railroaded Durham Constabulary into a highly politicised investigation. Based on how they dealt with Cummings the precedent had been set to walk away.

    Johnson personally drove a coach and horses through the rules. The Met launched a token case against him. It now transpires that they didn't even look at his more egregious breaches, they ignored the Abba night at number 10! And Case they ignored completely. Mainly Juniors and Women were fined. Cressida Dick's last hurrah was another operational failure.

    The Met intervention rather than allowing justice to be served has allowed Johnson to dodge the Gray Report and remain in office. It has worked out so well for him, it looks very like a conspiratorial whitewash. Even his greatest foe in Government was brought down by a cake!

    Tory hacks are laughing and they will laugh louder when Starmer gets his Beergate comeuppance. The reality is Team Johnson has taken the rest of us for a ride. And what about his clandestine meeting with Sue Gray last month...?
    That does not appear to address the point I'm making about RP being inconsistent.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    I am sure @NickPalmer would have a view, but in my experience the ability of an MP to chat to a minister in the lobby is a very valuable informal channel to ensure their constituents are looked after
    Works the other way, too - harder for the whips to threaten ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    edited May 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    2 party preferred at the moment:

    Lab 50.3%
    Coalition 49.7%

    Closest Australian Federal election 2PP since 2010, matches the hung parliament projection.

    Also not far off the 2016 result where Turnbull got a majority of 1

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,285
    30.6% is a very low figure for Labor's first preferences.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,801

    "No, it's not." WHAT's not? NOT to me, what "it" is it that you are referrring? Or not?
    Ah yeah poorly worded, just agreeing with your first point that it's not really a let off for Boris.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,285
    Interesting from Channel 7: both of the two seats that have gone from Liberal to Labor have high proportions of Chinese language speakers.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,011
    edited May 2022
    Good morning

    On 'partygate' I would suggest it is not so much a conspiracy, or whitewash, but an utter condemnation of the way the rules were written with more holes than a colander

    I expect the MET were very concerned there may be a challenge to the FPN's which could have resulted in them being declared unlawful, with real problems with the many thousands that were issued

    I can understand Boris's claims he was working, which is similar to Starmer's, and for that reason I expect Starmer to cleared, but not sure about Rayner though

    On the wider point about Boris, if his mps now see him as the one to lead into GE 24, then that will happen but they are clearly taking a huge gamble with their own seats and careers

    I am relaxed about GE 24 as it is fair to say Starmer does not frighten me, and it is more than likely he will need the Lib Dems to work alongside him and hopefully curtail the overspending that a labour government is known for

    Someone referred to the article in the Telegraph this morning, and it should be compulsory reading for all conservative mps and supporters as it is a stark warning that they could see a 1997 style result in 24, though I cannot see that without a recovery in Scotland by labour

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/21/heading-1997/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,285
    Does anyone know what the Australian election pundits mean when they describe an area as "teal"?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,185

    That does not appear to address the point I'm making about RP being inconsistent.
    @RochdalePioneers has said all along Beergate was a poor judgement call by the police, and despite what the Met have adjudicated, Johnson attended parties and as such misled the House.

    RP has been straight down the fairway consistent.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,390
    Pagan2 said:

    Doesnt matter who was promoting it the fact was while in the eu the bottom half of the country had been sliding into poverty further and further....the argument to keep on as were doing therefore really didnt appeal to them because all that offered them was a continued slide into greater and greater poverty. You can certainly argue that it won't help but then staying in the eu wasn't going to help either so they rolled the dice and took a gamble that just maybe it would and for quite a few it has. People who are actually seeing payrises now whereas before they were condemned to minimum wage for the forseeable future. Oh yes forgot you are a left winger and the only good wage rises for the proles are those they get by hiking minimum wage
    I'm sure people are very grateful for their below inflation pay rises.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone know what the Australian election pundits mean when they describe an area as "teal"?

    Climate focussed independents:

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-teal-wave-in-australia-sees-voters-backing-climate-focused-independent/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,285

    Climate focussed independents:

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-teal-wave-in-australia-sees-voters-backing-climate-focused-independent/
    Thanks. I watched the previous election show and they weren't using that term then.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730

    I'm sure people are very grateful for their below inflation pay rises.
    And when we were in the eu people didnt get below inflation payrises in fact I am damn sure if we hadnt brexited people would be getting the same payrises now as they did then...the square root of fuck all
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    HYUFD said:

    Closest Australian Federal election 2PP since 2010, matches the hung parliament projection.

    Also not far off the 2016 result where Turnbull got a majority of 1

    I thought Turnbull was good. I liked him.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,185

    Good morning

    On 'partygate' I would suggest it is not so much a conspiracy, or whitewash, but an utter condemnation of the way the rules were written with more holes than a colander

    I expect the MET were very concerned there may be a challenge to the FPN's which could have resulted in them being declared unlawful, with real problems with the many thousands that were issued

    I can understand Boris's claims he was working, which is similar to Starmer's, and for that reason I expect Starmer to cleared, but not sure about Rayner though

    On the wider point about Boris, if his mps now see him as the one to lead into GE 24, then that will happen but they are clearly taking a huge gamble with their own seats and careers

    I am relaxed about GE 24 as it is fair to say Starmer does not frighten me, and it is more than likely he will need the Lib Dems to work alongside him and hopefully curtail the overspending that a labour government is known for

    Someone referred to the article in the Telegraph this morning, and it should be compulsory reading for all conservative mps and supporters as it is a stark warning that they could see a 1997 style result in 24, though I cannot see that without a recovery in Scotland by labour

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/21/heading-1997/

    Oh give over BigG. You and serial lockdown breaker Kay Burley were demanding Starmer's nuts, and now you are happy that the Met investigation barely investigated Johnson.

    Work to do!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879

    Good morning

    On 'partygate' I would suggest it is not so much a conspiracy, or whitewash, but an utter condemnation of the way the rules were written with more holes than a colander

    I expect the MET were very concerned there may be a challenge to the FPN's which could have resulted in them being declared unlawful, with real problems with the many thousands that were issued

    I can understand Boris's claims he was working, which is similar to Starmer's, and for that reason I expect Starmer to cleared, but not sure about Rayner though

    On the wider point about Boris, if his mps now see him as the one to lead into GE 24, then that will happen but they are clearly taking a huge gamble with their own seats and careers

    I am relaxed about GE 24 as it is fair to say Starmer does not frighten me, and it is more than likely he will need the Lib Dems to work alongside him and hopefully curtail the overspending that a labour government is known for

    Someone referred to the article in the Telegraph this morning, and it should be compulsory reading for all conservative mps and supporters as it is a stark warning that they could see a 1997 style result in 24, though I cannot see that without a recovery in Scotland by labour

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/21/heading-1997/

    On current polls it will be a hung parliament in the UK too, not a 1997 style result
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited May 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Thanks. I watched the previous election show and they weren't using that term then.
    Seems that as a semi-organised group it's a new thing this time.
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    Will be interesting to see if the pitch invasions continue this weekend Both leeds and Burnley involved in high stakes relegation games
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730
    Pagan2 said:

    And when we were in the eu people didnt get below inflation payrises in fact I am damn sure if we hadnt brexited people would be getting the same payrises now as they did then...the square root of fuck all
    Don't forget it was a remainer who claimed brexit would lead to payrises in the campaign....Stuart Rose I think his name was......turns out the remain campaign wasn't all lies after all
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    edited May 2022

    Climate focussed independents:

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-teal-wave-in-australia-sees-voters-backing-climate-focused-independent/
    Much like the UK and US the biggest swing against the Conservatives it seems in Australia so far is in affluent urban areas while Labor is doing worst and the Conservatives seeing least swing against them in poorer working class areas. In France too of course Macron did best in Paris
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    GaryL said:

    Will be interesting to see if the pitch invasions continue this weekend Both leeds and Burnley involved in high stakes relegation games

    And York!

    I’m in the car now!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,632

    @Cyclefree is much more positive on the idea of her daughter meeting @Leon than she was when I suggested it a week ago!

    :lol:
    I am preparing myself. Not encouraging it!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,910
    edited May 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone know what the Australian election pundits mean when they describe an area as "teal"?

    Coalition held.

    Edit. I think that might be Liberal. Nats are Green. Which makes it awkward for the Greens I guess...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,011

    Oh give over BigG. You and serial lockdown breaker Kay Burley were demanding Starmer's nuts, and now you are happy that the Met investigation barely investigated Johnson.

    Work to do!
    What a silly comment to a genuine piece

    In view of the outcome of the MET investigation I do expect Starmer to be cleared if he can prove he was working and I have explained why I think the outcome has arisen in so far as the laws were an ass and frankly should never be enacted again
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131

    And York!

    I’m in the car now!
    Yeah leeds game is worrying I can just see it now Burnley score in injury time to send leeds down, and then,,,
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730
    Cyclefree said:

    I am preparing myself. Not encouraging it!
    Considers the situation of Cyclefree being Leons new mother in law...decides i must be living in one of the stranger universes
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,285
    The comments on the Pollbludger blog aren't exactly balanced between the parties. Not many Liberals on there.

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/05/21/federal-election-live-3/comment-page-16/#comments
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,699

    Well you should be. Imagine if Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn had led us down this garden path. You would be outraged.

    The wagons have been well and truly circled, but by whom is alarming.
    Nah. Don’t really care. Both Johnson and Corbyn were unsuitable candidates for PM.

    But whether or not he had a cake doesn’t change my view of him.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,390
    Pagan2 said:

    And when we were in the eu people didnt get below inflation payrises in fact I am damn sure if we hadnt brexited people would be getting the same payrises now as they did then...the square root of fuck all
    Real wages are going down currently, whereas when we were in the EU they went up. I don't make any causal claims (I don't think real wages are going down mainly because of Brexit, it is more to do with global energy and food price inflation) but the idea that being in the EU led to lower real wages and leaving the EU has led to higher real wages isn't really supported by the data.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,215

    What a silly comment to a genuine piece

    In view of the outcome of the MET investigation I do expect Starmer to be cleared if he can prove he was working and I have explained why I think the outcome has arisen in so far as the laws were an ass and frankly should never be enacted again
    Ha, yet you still cheer on the people who wrote and broke the laws you think were so terrible.....
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Coalition now 10/1 to provide the PM.

    Much more accurate odds than earlier.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,011
    I have to say Bondi Beach is the most overrated Aussie attraction ever
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Trying to work out what breed that pooch is. He's certainly more fully dressed than most of the two-legged visitors.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730

    Nah. Don’t really care. Both Johnson and Corbyn were unsuitable candidates for PM.

    But whether or not he had a cake doesn’t change my view of him.
    I really dont get the whole thing about partygate/beergate....politician lies through his teeth....its a dog bites postman style story
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,699
    IshmaelZ said:

    Dim. Almost everything you know, you know by hearsay. Conspiracy theory does not mean what you think it means.
    Started drinking early today?

    I asked @Mexicanpete for evidence of the allegations he made. He replied “rumours say”. That’s not evidence.

    The @GaryL jumped with”everybody knows it’s a stitch up” which has even less evidential value
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,011

    Ha, yet you still cheer on the people who wrote and broke the laws you think were so terrible.....
    Err who am I cheering on ?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Pagan2 said:

    I really dont get the whole thing about partygate/beergate....politician lies through his teeth....its a dog bites postman style story
    Not supposed to do it to Parliament. Very much not. That's one key issue, and still unresolved.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,699

    Interested in the "my experience" there - are you another former (or current) MP?

    It's very easy to talk to a Minister informally (especially in your party as you'll be in the same lobby, but easy anyway). The Minister will *always* say non-committally "send me the details and I'll have a look", and they can do that online too - even now, 12 years after leaving Parliament, I have friendly online contact with both front benches. So I'm not sure that meeting in the lobby is really al lthat important.
    Sure they are not committal. But it means they are looking out for the email.

    Not going to identify myself though 😏
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    GaryL said:

    Will be interesting to see if the pitch invasions continue this weekend Both leeds and Burnley involved in high stakes relegation games

    Teams in the top two divisions obviously shouldn't be doing pitch invasions as they can't get it right.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    Should be hard for them to Nick the little pencil.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Game over for Morrison . Good riddance .
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,801
    Applicant said:

    Teams in the top two divisions obviously shouldn't be doing pitch invasions as they can't get it right.
    Time to introduce points penalties for pitch invasions from next season, 9 points should cover it.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Carnyx said:

    Not supposed to do it to Parliament. Very much not. That's one key issue, and still unresolved.
    Based on the Met's findings, it's difficult to see exactly where the lie to parliament was.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730

    Real wages are going down currently, whereas when we were in the EU they went up. I don't make any causal claims (I don't think real wages are going down mainly because of Brexit, it is more to do with global energy and food price inflation) but the idea that being in the EU led to lower real wages and leaving the EU has led to higher real wages isn't really supported by the data.
    Well if as you say reall wages were going up while we were in the eu strange that most people earning above min wage but lower than 50k a year saw bugger all evidence of it. Real wages were going up for those on min wage due to government mandated pay rises, real wages were certainly going up for company execs. Not so much for people between that. A common refrain from those I know was no pay rise again this year for the xth year running not even cost of living. I even know a couple of people who quit there job and went doing things like shelf stacking because they didn't make enough over minimum wage any more to make the extra stress and responsibilty worth it.

    When min wage came in I was earning about 3.5 times it...now I am earning 2.1 times it
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,673
    Sandpit said:

    How much of that informal contact is with people you didn’t know and meet when you were in Parliament?

    It’s more difficult to make new relationships in an online environment, than it is to maintain existing relationships.
    My position is unusual because my job involves ongoing contact with Ministers and Shadows, including people who I never met when I was in Parliament because they've come in since 2010. But in most cases I've only met them online now! If Parliament was entirely online, I expect the same would apply.

    There is a WhatsApp group for the 1997 Labour wave that I belong to, but nearly everyone there has retired from Parliament, and in fact I'm unusual on that in still having a full-time job.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    MaxPB said:

    Time to introduce points penalties for pitch invasions from next season, 9 points should cover it.
    Preposterous. When celebratory pitch invasions are done right, there's no problem with them. Look at Edgeley Park last Sunday - 10, 15 minutes of sheer unbridled joy, celebrating with the players - and then clearing the pitch so they could have the trophy presentation. And no threat to anyone.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730
    Carnyx said:

    Not supposed to do it to Parliament. Very much not. That's one key issue, and still unresolved.
    Why should parliament be priveleged to not be lied to when they lie through their teeth to the rest of us?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Applicant said:

    Preposterous. When celebratory pitch invasions are done right, there's no problem with them. Look at Edgeley Park last Sunday - 10, 15 minutes of sheer unbridled joy, celebrating with the players - and then clearing the pitch so they could have the trophy presentation. And no threat to anyone.
    Well you could start with -9 for pitch invasions *during* the game...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,910
    Still not much from WA. Coalition held 10 of 15.
    Unless they pick up a couple it is getting hard to see them forming a government.
    Most likely we won't know for weeks.
    Postals haven't been counted anywhere either.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Well you could start with -9 for pitch invasions *during* the game...
    That's an entirely different thing - for a start, it's incredibly rare to have a mass pitch invasion during a game, and the only ones I can think of have been protests, like with Oldham a few weeks back. I'm not sure such a thing would be deterred by a points deduction.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,390
    Pagan2 said:

    Well if as you say reall wages were going up while we were in the eu strange that most people earning above min wage but lower than 50k a year saw bugger all evidence of it. Real wages were going up for those on min wage due to government mandated pay rises, real wages were certainly going up for company execs. Not so much for people between that. A common refrain from those I know was no pay rise again this year for the xth year running not even cost of living. I even know a couple of people who quit there job and went doing things like shelf stacking because they didn't make enough over minimum wage any more to make the extra stress and responsibilty worth it.

    When min wage came in I was earning about 3.5 times it...now I am earning 2.1 times it
    On your last point, when the minimum wage was introduced it was set deliberately at a low level because they were worried it might lead to unemployment. Over time it has been increased both in nominal terms and as a fraction of average wages as they have become more confident that it doesn't destroy jobs at a higher level. So it isn't surprising that it has risen relative to your wages and isn't necessarily a sign that your wages have fallen behind.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    edited May 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Still not much from WA. Coalition held 10 of 15.
    Unless they pick up a couple it is getting hard to see them forming a government.
    Most likely we won't know for weeks.
    Postals haven't been counted anywhere either.

    Sky has projected the Coalition cannot form another majority government anyway.

    So most likely now a hung parliament and coalition talks over the next week or two, with a slim chance of a Labor majority
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Pagan2 said:

    Why should parliament be priveleged to not be lied to when they lie through their teeth to the rest of us?
    AIUI, because it's a formal statement in a formal situation; and also a basic rule of parliamentary procedure. But the contrast was very apparent in my thoughts, if only implicitly.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730

    On your last point, when the minimum wage was introduced it was set deliberately at a low level because they were worried it might lead to unemployment. Over time it has been increased both in nominal terms and as a fraction of average wages as they have become more confident that it doesn't destroy jobs at a higher level. So it isn't surprising that it has risen relative to your wages and isn't necessarily a sign that your wages have fallen behind.
    total actual I am paid now - money was paid in 2003 despite my job getting twice as complex.....500 pounds pre brexit. Changed job 3 times in that time. Looking for a new job now post brexit.....money being offered 10 to 15k more. And no that 500 wasnt adjusted for inflation in 2003 was being paid x....in 2017 last time looked for a new job I was offered x+500. At I went woohoo finally more money than I was earning.

  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,961
    Pagan2 said:

    Why should parliament be priveleged to not be lied to when they lie through their teeth to the rest of us?
    Does not Parliament count more or less as a court of law? where it is a very bad thing indeed not to tell the truth.....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,910
    HYUFD said:

    Sky has projected the Coalition cannot form another majority government anyway.

    So most likely now a hung parliament and coalition talks over the next week or two, with a slim chance of a Labor majority
    Yeah. I meant it is difficult to see the Coalition being able to form a Coalition. If that makes any sense.
    Several of the successful Independents ran to oust sitting Liberals. Would be strange to see them joining them.
    ScoMo isn't quite dead yet. But the prognosis isn't good.
This discussion has been closed.