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Voting intention – the educational divide – politicalbetting.com

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  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,539
    Leon said:

    Here’s a pic of my office this morning. Might help moods around here




    More seriously, thanks for your account of your Black Dog. It seems to bite people in very different ways. I don’t get the shakes or anxiety attacks, when it is really bad (and that is very rare, thank god) I become kind of inert. I drag myself out of bed if I can but then I just sit there, slumped. Staring at nothing. Bleak and immobile

    One weird thing is that it is physically painful. A pain somewhere in my spine. Or my chest. Like heartbreak. Bloody horrible

    And of course when it is really bad, all the genuinely good advice: exercise, see people, eat well, becomes irrelevant as you have no energy nor desire nor ability to do anything. Except maybe drink booze (and that is where booze can be an issue, although it does numb the pain)

    But it did pass. Like the rain. My improvement was achingly slow but noticeable. One day I went for a walk. Then a longer walk. Then I saw a friend. Chatted with a neighbour. Slow slow slow but i resurfaced. Probably took six months from beginning to end of the nasty stuff

    I still get glimpses even now - like acid flashbacks - ugh

    In which case I am going to look at this amazing view, drink more coffee, and do some work. That also helps: work. Raises the self esteem

    I'm not sure that will raise our spirits or just depress us that we aren't all there, although I bet you are glad we aren't.

    I have been waiting for weeks for you to post on the various stories about the possibility that Homo floresiensis may still be alive today. I thought this was right down your street. Although it is almost certainly not true the idea has been reported upon seriously, even if skeptically.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Leon said:

    Come down for a coffee! There’s plenty of space

    It’s Charlie’s Coffee and Brunch bar. By the harbour. I’ll get you an espresso


    I am following your and Daughter's travel itineraries.

    Any moment now I expect to find a picture of you both appearing in my WhatsApp ("Mum - I met someone else who reads PB for hours over a drink. Honestly you both need to get a life.").
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189
    kle4 said:

    I'm more concerned that theyd fall for the trick that the political culture will be transformed by the building they meet in, and decide it was the old fashioned wallpaper and straight lines holding them back or something, so go for something 'new', regardless of quality.

    Plus lets be honest, any new building would be shoddily constructed, massively over budget and behind schedule anyway.
    I wouldn't rule out the idea that the shape and look of the building has some effect. After all, the Scottish Parliament looks like a poorly constructed primary school and, sure enough...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Dura_Ace said:

    Emo as fuck.
    Sure it is, mate, sure it is.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,778

    Apologies for the mixed reply above! On StillWaters' point that, "If the sets are chosen on anything other than objective criteria that is very dangerous"...

    OK, imagine if a teacher or school goes, "This kid has potential, but their family is poor, they don't have a good study environment at home, but they will do well if stretched, so I'm going to give them a place in the top set, and this other kid, who just made it into the top set because mummy and daddy paid for tons of extra tuition, they don't have the same potential, so I'll put them in the next set down."

    Do you view that sort of decision as OK or as dangerous? It's based on objective criteria. We know these family and social factors, and paid tutoring, impact on pupils' performance on school exams. We can objectively assess them.

    I'm all for determining entry to the school based on potential. That is key - because of the issue of spoonfeeding as you suggest.

    But when you are looking at a specific teaching set, I don't think the same criteria apply because the sets should be reorganised every term so the impact of the decision is time bound.

    Firstly the difference between the top set and the second set shouldn't be too wide - in fact they should overlap, with the second set teachers able and encouraged to stretch their outperformers.

    Secondly, if someone is behind then either you are slowing down the whole set as a result of the teacher spending more time with them (thus disadvantaging everyone) plus you also have the risk of knocking the confidence of the laggard.

    Better in my view for them to outperform in the second set and then move up to the top set on merit, rather than be pushed up early based on potential and bump along the bottom/hold back the other top performers
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,778
    Leon said:

    This place is ridiculously agreeable

    PB?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,156

    I'm actually going to reply again and say that some of the stuff you've written above is rubbish.

    "That Durham plod are now reinvestigating is as much because it became politically untenable for them not to do so as because there is anything to investigate."

    Yeah, right. Even Starmer himself cannot say for sure whether he broke the law or not. I am therefore unsure how you can say there is nothing to investigate. Are you a bigger-brained lawyer than Starmer?

    "And people like you will say "nothing to see here" "

    LOL. No. *You* are the one saying 'nothing to see here' about Durham. See above.
    If the greased piglet that is Boris does “get away with it” on partygate and Keir Starmer gets an FPN would it be sneaky politics for Boris to publicly declare that SKS shouldn’t resign over the matter as clearly the rules were confusing - even to the point where a genius classicist and best PM ever was caught out.

    If SKS took this lifeline then he’s slightly holed under the waterline, if he resigns Boris can say he was magnanimous and thought SKS was wrong, Boris looks a lot better etc.

    I would think it’s maybe better for the Tories long term to have SKS in charge of Labour as any replacement might excite the public more.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,778
    Foxy said:

    As a general rule, those sanctioned by an investigation often question the process rather than accept their guilt. No one appeals when they are let off.

    Either way, the Sabatini case is one of allegations of sexual harrassment in the work place, I don't see that as a "Woke" issue, so don't see his downfall as an issue of "Woke gone mad".
    Do you think that is sufficiently serious to prevent him ever working again in his chosen career?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,539
    Dura_Ace said:

    Emo as fuck.
    Again a word I have to look up. I need to go back to school.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    rcs1000 said:

    My children are going to a new (expensive) Los Angeles private school next term.

    As with all private LA schools, they have a "diversity" officer, and if you want your children to be accepted, one has to turn up and listen to the various presentations.

    I dreaded the diversity one, especially given all I had read (particularly from @Leon).

    So... come the presentation, I was pleasantly surprised that the focus was not on white guilt for slavery but:

    (1) We want diversity, so the school likes like the community, but that cannot be at the expense of academic excellence. If the top maths set is one colour and the bottom one another, that isn't promoting diversity, that's promoting tokenism.

    (2) Diversity is not just about the colour of your skin. If you're on this call, you're already privileged. Your kids are privileged that you own a computer. They're privileged that you care enough about their education to sit through 100 presentations from 100 schools. Privilege manifests itself in many ways, and it is important that our kids understand how fortunate they are.

    Hope it goes well.
    I've got a lot of respect for the people that actually deal with the Equality and Diversity Agenda, and try and make it work; filtering out the political ideology etc. That is not impossible but a very difficult task. It is certainly a fallacy to say 'it is all bad; all leftist / communist rubbish' etc.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    Very early stages in Australia but currently the Coalition down 8% on the primary vote and Labor down 3% on the primary vote compared to 2019.

    Independents up 11.8% and One Nation up 5% and Greens up 1%

    https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2022/Results/
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397

    If as I expect Durham Plod once again say "this was not an offence" then there truly was nothing to see. No break of the law. And if I'm wrong then they quit and I say "I was wrong". And will cry laughing at the horrible mess Labour have put themselves in.

    As for surety in legal cases, whilst you can believe your case is very strong there is always the potential that either your understanding of the law is wrong or the jury make a finding because they can, or judges can have lapses.

    I assume that as a leading lawyer Starmer isn't going have done a "whoops I had no idea" like Bonzo. So we will see will we not.
    To make it clear: you did not want this investigation. You argued against the investigation. You blame the investigation on it being 'politically untenable' for there not to be one.

    You utterly ignore the fact that more evidence turned up (you could even argue that Labour lied); the same sort of evidence that cast doubt on what happened at No. 10. People drinking. People eating in an enclosed space, etc, etc.

    It may be that it was all above board: then again, the fact that Starmer himself cannot say it was, shows that the entire event was a little too close to the line.

    It's all rather funny.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,156
    Cyclefree said:

    I am following your and Daughter's travel itineraries.

    Any moment now I expect to find a picture of you both appearing in my WhatsApp ("Mum - I met someone else who reads PB for hours over a drink. Honestly you both need to get a life.").
    Fantastic - we could see our first PB wedding, Leon and Cyclefree JR with Sean T as best man.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,539
    boulay said:

    Fantastic - we could see our first PB wedding, Leon and Cyclefree JR with Sean T as best man.
    LadyG as bridesmaid.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,778
    boulay said:

    Fantastic - we could see our first PB wedding, Leon and Cyclefree JR with Sean T as best man.
    @Cyclefree is much more positive on the idea of her daughter meeting @Leon than she was when I suggested it a week ago!

    :lol:
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,945
    HYUFD said:

    Very early stages in Australia but currently the Coalition down 8% on the primary vote and Labor down 3% on the primary vote compared to 2019.

    Independents up 11.8% and One Nation up 5% and Greens up 1%

    https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2022/Results/

    Extremely early. 7k votes.
    But nice link thank you.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,724

    I'm all for determining entry to the school based on potential. That is key - because of the issue of spoonfeeding as you suggest.

    But when you are looking at a specific teaching set, I don't think the same criteria apply because the sets should be reorganised every term so the impact of the decision is time bound.

    Firstly the difference between the top set and the second set shouldn't be too wide - in fact they should overlap, with the second set teachers able and encouraged to stretch their outperformers.

    Secondly, if someone is behind then either you are slowing down the whole set as a result of the teacher spending more time with them (thus disadvantaging everyone) plus you also have the risk of knocking the confidence of the laggard.

    Better in my view for them to outperform in the second set and then move up to the top set on merit, rather than be pushed up early based on potential and bump along the bottom/hold back the other top performers
    The child with potential who has been held back by circumstances may be less likely to slow down the whole set than the child who only got there because of private tuition.

    There is a risk of knocking the confidence of the laggard, as you put it. There is also a risk of knocking someone's confidence by putting them in a lower set, and a chance that putting them in a higher set will give them the confidence they needed.

    But we don't need to get deep into the weeds here. I'd leave details of such decisions to the professionals. If you agree that it's good to judge potential, not just performance to date, and that judging potential can include considering someone's circumstances, then we agree on the big stuff. I think that's all that was meant by the diversity training mentioned previously.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,075
    HYUFD said:

    Indeed, if Scott Morrison manages it today then he will join John Howard and Bob Hawke as the only 2 Australian PMs to win more than 1 general election in the last 40 years.

    Labor start as favourites but looks like both parties are leaking votes to Independents while Labor also leaking them to the Greens
    I already feel sick to the pit of my guts. Look at the leads and momentum Labor had just back in February!

    image

    Maybe I just hated Morrison because my mum loves him so much, and he’s actually very good.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,137
    Cambridge University astrophysicist loses Milky Way leadership role over Brexit row - EU refusal to ratify UK place in Horizon Europe in tit for tat over Northern Ireland protocol dispute costs UK science jobs and money https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/21/cambridge-university-astrophysicist-loses-esa-project-role-over-brexit-row-nicholas-walton?CMP=share_btn_tw
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited May 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Extremely early. 7k votes.
    But nice link thank you.
    Very early but looks neck and neck on a roughly 2.5% swing to Labor given it was Coalition 51.5% and Labour 48.5% last time.

    A 2.5% swing would give a hung parliament and Coalition 73 and Labor 72 seats but very early days
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808
    I know people regard me as an angry voice and yes I am here far more than I would like to be. But the argument I am having with @bondegezou is symptomatic.

    Simply put 40 to 50 years ago a household could live on the wage of one earner. Policy really hasnt changed that much over that time and now its common for households with 2 full time earners to be struggling. The argument from people like him is oh we need to keep on doing what we are doing, this was also the argument for remaining.

    Sadly for most people in this country what we are doing really isnt working for them and year by year they feel poorer and poorer and struggle more and more while the upper echelons of society seem to get richer and richer.

    Things need to change, the brexit vote was a result of this, my diatribe about doing essentials is part of this. Will they work? I really have no idea. However for a lot of this country just carrying on with the same old same old is not an option as all they see from past experience is they will slowly have less and less.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,677
    Dura_Ace said:

    Why does it even need to exist? The MPs could have shit offices above a Ladbrokes in their constiuencies, debate on Zoom and vote on an app. I don't think we'd be conspicuously less well governed if that were the arrangement,
    That's 75-80% true, tbh. About the same as any other desk-based organisation considering going totally online/wfh. You'd miss out on informal discussions, which are sometimes very important (but uusally not) and in practice a lot of the discussions nowadays seem to be on WhatsApp. So...yeah. Probably the public isn't ready for it, but in 20 years I can see it happening.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    I already feel sick to the pit of my guts. Look at the leads and momentum Labor had just back in February!

    image

    Maybe I just hated Morrison because my mum loves him so much, and he’s actually very good.
    A 53/47 TPP lead for ALP would be a stunning victory. 55/45 would be among the biggest ever electoral successes achieved.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,778
    Scott_xP said:

    Cambridge University astrophysicist loses Milky Way leadership role over Brexit row - EU refusal to ratify UK place in Horizon Europe in tit for tat over Northern Ireland protocol dispute costs UK science jobs and money https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/21/cambridge-university-astrophysicist-loses-esa-project-role-over-brexit-row-nicholas-walton?CMP=share_btn_tw

    So that is the sort of unilateral sanction that you think it would be wrong for the UK to take?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774
    Scott_xP said:

    Cambridge University astrophysicist loses Milky Way leadership role over Brexit row - EU refusal to ratify UK place in Horizon Europe in tit for tat over Northern Ireland protocol dispute costs UK science jobs and money https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/21/cambridge-university-astrophysicist-loses-esa-project-role-over-brexit-row-nicholas-walton?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Irrespective of who's to blame, this is likely to be more disruptive to UK science than it is to the EU, though it's not good for either.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    Scott_xP said:

    Cambridge University astrophysicist loses Milky Way leadership role over Brexit row - EU refusal to ratify UK place in Horizon Europe in tit for tat over Northern Ireland protocol dispute costs UK science jobs and money https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/21/cambridge-university-astrophysicist-loses-esa-project-role-over-brexit-row-nicholas-walton?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Although it can't possibly be exactly accurate it may be worth noticing that according to a recent list of top world universities, the top one within the EU is ranked 44th, and there are no fewer than 7 UK ones above it, including an obscure one in second place and a quite good one in joint third. Is there a link between this league table and the Guardian story?


    https://www.topuniversities.com/student-info/choosing-university/worlds-top-100-universities



  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808
    Nigelb said:

    Irrespective of who's to blame, this is likely to be more disruptive to UK science than it is to the EU, though it's not good for either.
    Apart from the eu really doesnt have any centres of scientific excellence so its losing experience whereas the uk and switzerland does?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327
    edited May 2022

    I'm actually going to reply again and say that some of the stuff you've written above is rubbish.

    "That Durham plod are now reinvestigating is as much because it became politically untenable for them not to do so as because there is anything to investigate."

    Yeah, right. Even Starmer himself cannot say for sure whether he broke the law or not. I am therefore unsure how you can say there is nothing to investigate. Are you a bigger-brained lawyer than Starmer?

    "And people like you will say "nothing to see here" "

    LOL. No. *You* are the one saying 'nothing to see here' about Durham. See above.
    RP is consistent here.

    I believe Starmer and Rayner probably broke the letter of the law, and if the law is applied with rigour they must go simply because they said they would. Richard Holden and the Daily Mail and Telegraph railroaded Durham Constabulary into a highly politicised investigation. Based on how they dealt with Cummings the precedent had been set to walk away.

    Johnson personally drove a coach and horses through the rules. The Met launched a token case against him. It now transpires that they didn't even look at his more egregious breaches, they ignored the Abba night at number 10! And Case they ignored completely. Mainly Juniors and Women were fined. Cressida Dick's last hurrah was another operational failure.

    The Met intervention rather than allowing justice to be served has allowed Johnson to dodge the Gray Report and remain in office. It has worked out so well for him, it looks very like a conspiratorial whitewash. Even his greatest foe in Government was brought down by a cake!

    Tory hacks are laughing and they will laugh louder when Starmer gets his Beergate comeuppance. The reality is Team Johnson has taken the rest of us for a ride. And what about his clandestine meeting with Sue Gray last month...?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    So far the Coalition are ahead in 4 Labor held seats, Labor are ahead in 2 Coalition held seats and Independents are ahead in 1 Coalition held seat, all others unchanged. Still early days

    https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2022/Results/

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,724
    Pagan2 said:

    I know people regard me as an angry voice and yes I am here far more than I would like to be. But the argument I am having with @bondegezou is symptomatic.

    Simply put 40 to 50 years ago a household could live on the wage of one earner. Policy really hasnt changed that much over that time and now its common for households with 2 full time earners to be struggling. The argument from people like him is oh we need to keep on doing what we are doing, this was also the argument for remaining.

    Sadly for most people in this country what we are doing really isnt working for them and year by year they feel poorer and poorer and struggle more and more while the upper echelons of society seem to get richer and richer.

    Things need to change, the brexit vote was a result of this, my diatribe about doing essentials is part of this. Will they work? I really have no idea. However for a lot of this country just carrying on with the same old same old is not an option as all they see from past experience is they will slowly have less and less.

    I don't want to carry on with the same old same old. I don't want to copy Thatcherism, New Labour and austerity. I don't want to keep on doing what we are doing.

    But just because change is needed doesn't mean any change is a good idea. I don't see radical libertarianism as the answer. I don't think Brexit has helped the struggling full time earning couple.

    It's not the state spending outside of your core functions that has put us in this situation. It's a failure to invest in housing. It's a broader abandonment of Keynesian principles. It's unfettered capitalism and the pursuit of profit at all costs.

    Things should change. Saying private money will look after the roads and we shouldn't pay for any post-18 education is not the change we need.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    Pagan2 said:

    I know people regard me as an angry voice and yes I am here far more than I would like to be. But the argument I am having with @bondegezou is symptomatic.

    Simply put 40 to 50 years ago a household could live on the wage of one earner. Policy really hasnt changed that much over that time and now its common for households with 2 full time earners to be struggling. The argument from people like him is oh we need to keep on doing what we are doing, this was also the argument for remaining.

    Sadly for most people in this country what we are doing really isnt working for them and year by year they feel poorer and poorer and struggle more and more while the upper echelons of society seem to get richer and richer.

    Things need to change, the brexit vote was a result of this, my diatribe about doing essentials is part of this. Will they work? I really have no idea. However for a lot of this country just carrying on with the same old same old is not an option as all they see from past experience is they will slowly have less and less.

    Policy has changed. We have gone from encouraging meritocracy, business, hard work, education to favour asset inflation, gerontocracy and protecting inheritances.

    The people doing this like to pretend nothing has changed so they can use culture wedge issues to get the votes of those left behind.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,539
    HYUFD said:

    So far the Coalition are ahead in 4 Labor held seats, Labor are ahead in 2 Coalition held seats and Independents are ahead in 1 Coalition held seat, all others unchanged. Still early days

    https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2022/Results/

    I'm ignorant of the process in Australia. In America or the UK the percentage so far can be swayed by which areas/ballot boxes are counted first. Is this also true in Australia or are all the ballots brought together and counted as one.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808

    I don't want to carry on with the same old same old. I don't want to copy Thatcherism, New Labour and austerity. I don't want to keep on doing what we are doing.

    But just because change is needed doesn't mean any change is a good idea. I don't see radical libertarianism as the answer. I don't think Brexit has helped the struggling full time earning couple.

    It's not the state spending outside of your core functions that has put us in this situation. It's a failure to invest in housing. It's a broader abandonment of Keynesian principles. It's unfettered capitalism and the pursuit of profit at all costs.

    Things should change. Saying private money will look after the roads and we shouldn't pay for any post-18 education is not the change we need.
    What change have you suggested then as far as I can see absolutely nothing apart from more of the same. I put my money where my mouth was and said what I would change. If you aren't as you claim just advocating carrying on specify what you would change to make things work for the bottom 50%
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808

    Policy has changed. We have gone from encouraging meritocracy, business, hard work, education to favour asset inflation, gerontocracy and protecting inheritances.

    The people doing this like to pretend nothing has changed so they can use culture wedge issues to get the votes of those left behind.
    we have had all those for 40 to 50 years how does it invalidate what I said?
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 931
    kjh said:

    I'm ignorant of the process in Australia. In America or the UK the percentage so far can be swayed by which areas/ballot boxes are counted first. Is this also true in Australia or are all the ballots brought together and counted as one.
    Counted at polling booths in Australia.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    Pagan2 said:

    What change have you suggested then as far as I can see absolutely nothing apart from more of the same. I put my money where my mouth was and said what I would change. If you aren't as you claim just advocating carrying on specify what you would change to make things work for the bottom 50%
    A simple policy change that does not come from left or right that would help a lot:

    2 hrs taught activity each week paid for by the state for everyone, regardless of age, with a wide range of choices from gym, personal finance, fitness, cooking, nutrition, dance, mental health, parenting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    kjh said:

    I'm ignorant of the process in Australia. In America or the UK the percentage so far can be swayed by which areas/ballot boxes are counted first. Is this also true in Australia or are all the ballots brought together and counted as one.
    Depends a bit on when polls close. So far we have results coming in from NSW, Victoria, Queensland, Tasmania and ACT. Awaiting results from South Australia, Western Australia and Northern Territory.

    With 1% of the vote in the Coalition vote is down 3.1%, Labor's vote is down 3.2% and Independents are up 5%.

    The Coalition lead in 51 seats, Labor in 33 and Independents in 5 and Katter in 1

    https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2022/Results/
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    Pagan2 said:

    we have had all those for 40 to 50 years how does it invalidate what I said?
    I think there was a big change around the turn of the millenium which accelerated after the financial crash, where the emphasis shifted sharply away from opportunity, business to a more protectionist attitude which benefited older asset owners at the expense of younger workers.

    I do not accept that this has been the status quo for 40-50 years at all. The shift is relatively recent, mostly down to demographics.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808

    A simple policy change that does not come from left or right that would help a lot:

    2 hrs taught activity each week paid for by the state for everyone, regardless of age, with a wide range of choices from gym, personal finance, fitness, cooking, nutrition, dance, mental health, parenting.
    I dont care where the idea comes from and all you are doing here is advocating taking more money off people to pay for useless shit how does that help?

    You want to learn to cook or how to do personal finance, or learn about nutrition....there is a metric fuckton of free courses for all those on youtube yet despite that you want the governement to spend money producing things which will probably be lesser quality. See thats the issue people like you that thinks if it doesn't come from the state its worthless
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited May 2022
    Current Australian National primary vote

    Coalition 37% Labor 30%, Greens 12%, Others 10%, One Nation 5%
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,539

    Counted at polling booths in Australia.
    Cheers. So I am guessing that it is generally pretty random but I assume that rural areas will have smaller polling stations than urban ones and therefore report quicker giving an early bias to rural votes in results so far. But I have assumed that with zippo knowledge and it might be urban ones are more efficient. I haven't a clue. Anyone here know?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    So the early results suggest

    Two party > Independent swing (all sorts of indepedents)
    Coalition (particularly Lib) losing more votes than ALP

    Neither challenges the polling, i.e. a swing to ALP of a size TBD.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,778
    algarkirk said:

    Although it can't possibly be exactly accurate it may be worth noticing that according to a recent list of top world universities, the top one within the EU is ranked 44th, and there are no fewer than 7 UK ones above it, including an obscure one in second place and a quite good one in joint third. Is there a link between this league table and the Guardian story?


    https://www.topuniversities.com/student-info/choosing-university/worlds-top-100-universities



    UC San Diego, which is pretty close to the first EU offering, is a party university
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    Pagan2 said:

    I dont care where the idea comes from and all you are doing here is advocating taking more money off people to pay for useless shit how does that help?

    You want to learn to cook or how to do personal finance, or learn about nutrition....there is a metric fuckton of free courses for all those on youtube yet despite that you want the governement to spend money producing things which will probably be lesser quality. See thats the issue people like you that thinks if it doesn't come from the state its worthless
    No, I just realise that if we have better parenting and fitter people we will be happier. That is a much better investment than things that look much better in GDP figures etc, although those will benefit in the long run too as healthier and happier people are more productive workers too.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Latest actual votes counted in Australia:

    https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2022/Results/
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,778

    RP is consistent here.

    I believe Starmer and Rayner probably broke the letter of the law, and if the law is applied with rigour they must go simply because they said they would. Richard Holden and the Daily Mail and Telegraph railroaded Durham Constabulary into a highly politicised investigation. Based on how they dealt with Cummings the precedent had been set to walk away.

    Johnson personally drove a coach and horses through the rules. The Met launched a token case against him. It now transpires that they didn't even look at his more egregious breaches, they ignored the Abba night at number 10! And Case they ignored completely. Mainly Juniors and Women were fined. Cressida Dick's last hurrah was another operational failure.

    The Met intervention rather than allowing justice to be served has allowed Johnson to dodge the Gray Report and remain in office. It has worked out so well for him, it looks very like a conspiratorial whitewash. Even his greatest foe in Government was brought down by a cake!

    Tory hacks are laughing and they will laugh louder when Starmer gets his Beergate comeuppance. The reality is Team Johnson has taken the rest of us for a ride. And what about his clandestine meeting with Sue Gray last month...?
    On what basis have you determined the police didn’t do their job? That you didn’t like the outcome?

    AIUI all we know about the ABBA event is that the Met didn’t recommend any FPNs. We don’t know that they ignored it?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,205

    Policy has changed. We have gone from encouraging meritocracy, business, hard work, education to favour asset inflation, gerontocracy and protecting inheritances.

    The people doing this like to pretend nothing has changed so they can use culture wedge issues to get the votes of those left behind.
    There is another factor that increases inequality: assortative mating by class combined with women in the workplace.

    In the old days, dad went to work and mum stayed at home. Now, both work. So far, so meh. But upper middle class professionals earn more and because they also tend to partner within their own class, there can be a gaping chasm in *household* income between professional couples and average earning couples (and by definition, a couple even on average earnings brings home twice as much as a one-adult household on average income).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    So the early results suggest

    Two party > Independent swing (all sorts of indepedents)
    Coalition (particularly Lib) losing more votes than ALP

    Neither challenges the polling, i.e. a swing to ALP of a size TBD.

    Yes it does, the current Coalition to ALP swing is less than 1% on the primary vote, most of the polls were suggesting an up to 4% swing

  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808

    No, I just realise that if we have better parenting and fitter people we will be happier. That is a much better investment than things that look much better in GDP figures etc, although those will benefit in the long run too as healthier and happier people are more productive workers too.
    Those things are already available to them on youtube. What makes you think they are going to pay anymore attention if its a governement funded video. I also suspect a civil service video how how to boil an egg would cost 100 times what someone did off their own backs because the civil serice is nothing but spendthrift wastrels
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    Seats called so far Coalition 19, Labor 4, Others 2
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    HYUFD said:

    Yes it does, the current Coalition to ALP swing is less than 1% on the primary vote, most of the polls were suggesting an up to 4% swing

    I'm drawing my error bars pretty wide here, Hyfud. But I take your point, the more extreme results seem less likely, but people were almost pricing in the polls being wrong like last time, which is why ALP is still 1/2 to provide the PM.
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131

    I think there was a big change around the turn of the millenium which accelerated after the financial crash, where the emphasis shifted sharply away from opportunity, business to a more protectionist attitude which benefited older asset owners at the expense of younger workers.

    I do not accept that this has been the status quo for 40-50 years at all. The shift is relatively recent, mostly down to demographics.
    Yes high asset prices and low wages benefit the conservative grey core vote greatly, hence the massive difference in voting patterns In the 80s the tories actually got a lot of votes from the young
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 931
    Backed Coalition at 3.2, now into 2.5.

    Kellner's Law getting ready to roar?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    Pagan2 said:

    Those things are already available to them on youtube. What makes you think they are going to pay anymore attention if its a governement funded video. I also suspect a civil service video how how to boil an egg would cost 100 times what someone did off their own backs because the civil serice is nothing but spendthrift wastrels
    Meeting in person rather than youtube is a core part of what I am suggesting. Lots of very lonely people, especially older people would benefit significantly and it can be part of restoring a shared sense of community.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    The odds have moved slightly in a Liberal direction since polls closed.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.159045690
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    Backed Coalition at 3.2, now into 2.5.

    Kellner's Law getting ready to roar?

    Same with me, I've got £35 on them at 3.1. That was about an hour ago.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    HYUFD said:

    Yes it does, the current Coalition to ALP swing is less than 1% on the primary vote, most of the polls were suggesting an up to 4% swing

    You'd have thought the pollsters would have learnt their lesson from last time, if they've got it wrong again.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Backed Coalition at 3.2, now into 2.5.

    Kellner's Law getting ready to roar?

    The apparent swing to ALP is getting bigger, but I won't try to teach you to bet on international elections (!!)
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808

    Meeting in person rather than youtube is a core part of what I am suggesting. Lots of very lonely people, especially older people would benefit significantly and it can be part of restoring a shared sense of community.
    So you would spend a lot of money on courses no one attends because hello most people prefer to do things online these days apart from the fossils. Of course if you want to teach better parenting to the over 70's go ahead just finance it with your cash not mine
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    I'm drawing my error bars pretty wide here, Hyfud. But I take your point, the more extreme results seem less likely, but people were almost pricing in the polls being wrong like last time, which is why ALP is still 1/2 to provide the PM.
    Currently though the Coalition are ahead in 5 Labor marginal seats while Labor are ahead in 8 Coalition marginal seats.

    On those figures would end up Coalition 72 and Labor 70 so close and looks like a hung parliament.

    Independents ahead though in Coalition held affluent Wentworth, Turnbull's old seat and Mackellar and Kooyang and Labor held Fowler
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565

    On what basis have you determined the police didn’t do their job? That you didn’t like the outcome?

    AIUI all we know about the ABBA event is that the Met didn’t recommend any FPNs. We don’t know that they ignored it?
    I'm with @Mexicanpete. This has been a total establishment stitch-up to save the PM.

    It stinks to high heaven.



  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 913
    Nigelb said:

    Irrespective of who's to blame, this is likely to be more disruptive to UK science than it is to the EU, though it's not good for either.
    For EU science, it's disruptive. For UK science, especially outside of Oxbridge, it's existential. People might not care about this. They might think that, so long as Oxbridge endure, UK science will still be the fine tuned, world beating machine it is. Australia hollowed out their 'middle' science, with the idea they could identify excellence and, selectively boost that. So far, it seemed, they were wrong. Upper-middle and middle universities represent a huge stream of research activity, one that can't be easily replaced.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    HYUFD said:

    Currently though the Coalition are ahead in 5 Labor marginal seats while Labor are ahead in 8 Coalition marginal seats.

    On those figures would end up Coalition 72 and Labor 70 so close and looks like a hung parliament.

    Independents ahead though in Coalition held affluent Wentworth, Turnbull's old seat and Mackellar and Kooyang and Labor held Fowler
    Apparently Turnbull didn't even go to Wentworth.

    I do think the Coalition's best chance involves losing votes in safe seats and picking them up where it matters more.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327
    edited May 2022

    On what basis have you determined the police didn’t do their job? That you didn’t like the outcome?

    AIUI all we know about the ABBA event is that the Met didn’t recommend any FPNs. We don’t know that they ignored it?
    The Met have confirmed that of the 5 events Johnson was known to have attended the police only investigated him personally for two (questionnaires issued for just the two events) including the cake event, which handily brought down Sunak.

    Reports are that Juniors were obliging to Gray whereas Seniors and some politicians in general were not. I suspect Sunak was truthful.They did not expect the Gray Report to be hijacked and used as evidence for the prosecution.

    I personally think that Johnson not being investigated is remarkable, but Case, with the evidence we have seen ourselves not getting an FPN is astonishing.

    Big Dog is saved...by the less than lamented Cressida Dick!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    Andy_JS said:

    You'd have thought the pollsters would have learnt their lesson from last time, if they've got it wrong again.
    Again the preferred PM poll numbers more accurate than the 2PP it seems
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited May 2022
    It looks like the election is going to depend on the preferences of the much increased number of people voting for independent candidates.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,945
    Nice to see the seat of Indi is held by an Independent.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,633

    Backed Coalition at 3.2, now into 2.5.

    Kellner's Law getting ready to roar?

    That’s poetry
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 931
    Kellner's Law

    Named after Peter Kellner:

    Opinion polls are not always wrong, but when they are wrong, they are nearly always wrong in the same direction.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Kellner's Law

    Named after Peter Kellner:

    Opinion polls are not always wrong, but when they are wrong, they are nearly always wrong in the same direction.

    More likely to me that people see the early results, and think this is a repeat of last time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited May 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like the election is going to depend on the preferences of the much increased number of people voting for independent candidates.

    On the current swing it will likely be Australia's first hung parliament since 2010 with Independent MPs holding the balance of power
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,945

    Kellner's Law

    Named after Peter Kellner:

    Opinion polls are not always wrong, but when they are wrong, they are nearly always wrong in the same direction.

    How does 2015 and 2017 fit with that?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,677
    I've put a couple of quid on "no overall majority" in Australia - real surge for Greens and minor parties. Does amnyone who knows Oz better know what the realistic max is for the Greens?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Dura_Ace said:

    Why does it even need to exist? The MPs could have shit offices above a Ladbrokes in their constiuencies, debate on Zoom and vote on an app. I don't think we'd be conspicuously less well governed if that were the arrangement,
    They can't molest each other so easily. That's another advantage. And as for subsidised food, just give them £10- Luncheon Vouchers or the equivalent in M&S tokens.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Unpopular said:

    For EU science, it's disruptive. For UK science, especially outside of Oxbridge, it's existential. People might not care about this. They might think that, so long as Oxbridge endure, UK science will still be the fine tuned, world beating machine it is. Australia hollowed out their 'middle' science, with the idea they could identify excellence and, selectively boost that. So far, it seemed, they were wrong. Upper-middle and middle universities represent a huge stream of research activity, one that can't be easily replaced.
    And one from which the high fliers of the not very distant future come and often remain. One thinks of Alec Jeffreys.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567

    The Met have confirmed that of the 5 events Johnson was known to have attended the police only investigated him personally for two (questionnaires issued for just the two events) including the cake event, which handily brought down Sunak.

    Reports are that Juniors were obliging to Gray whereas Seniors and some politicians in general were not. I suspect Sunak was truthful.They did not expect the Gray Report to be hijacked and used as evidence for the prosecution.

    I personally think that Johnson not being investigated is remarkable, but Case, with the evidence we have seen ourselves not getting an FPN is astonishing.

    Big Dog is saved...by the less than lamented Cressida Dick!
    I am more interested to know how issuing a few questionnaires and FPNs and looking at a few photos could take up a sufficient amount of staff time to cost £460,000.

    They didn't even investigate properly, and most of the work had been done for them by Gray, so how on Earth could it come to that figure? That's the equivalent of hiring four full-time officers for a year.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,205
    edited May 2022

    Kellner's Law

    Named after Peter Kellner:

    Opinion polls are not always wrong, but when they are wrong, they are nearly always wrong in the same direction.

    Hmm. Otoh we also have 538's Nate Silver telling us that when conventional wisdom tries to outguess the polls, it almost always guesses in the wrong direction.

    So between the two of them, we might as well give up and go home, or just back the outsider and hope.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Pagan2 said:

    we have had all those for 40 to 50 years how does it invalidate what I said?
    The policy of the "Conservative" Party has changed on a much shorter timescale. Massively.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948

    I've put a couple of quid on "no overall majority" in Australia - real surge for Greens and minor parties. Does amnyone who knows Oz better know what the realistic max is for the Greens?

    It’s an interesting question, and the way this ends up being reported is going to have an outsized effect. This election is one of the great global proxy wars. Coalition win gives succour to the American coal lobby and climate contrarianism. Coalition loss, and a notable surge for greens, and the acceleration towards net zero continues, in the West at least.

    Funny how climate change as a culture war battle only seems to have real salience these days in Australia. The US seems to have moved on from the climate wars of the 2010s to Covid vaccinations, critical race theory and abortion while the UK stews in its own juices over the definition of a woman.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    ydoethur said:

    I am more interested to know how issuing a few questionnaires and FPNs and looking at a few photos could take up a sufficient amount of staff time to cost £460,000.

    They didn't even investigate properly, and most of the work had been done for them by Gray, so how on Earth could it come to that figure? That's the equivalent of hiring four full-time officers for a year.
    12 officers for three months. Sounds about right.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    ydoethur said:

    I am more interested to know how issuing a few questionnaires and FPNs and looking at a few photos could take up a sufficient amount of staff time to cost £460,000.

    They didn't even investigate properly, and most of the work had been done for them by Gray, so how on Earth could it come to that figure? That's the equivalent of hiring four full-time officers for a year.
    Have you allowed for the overheads bit - to cover everything from the upkeep of NSY to pensions?

    I wouldn't be surprised if they charged VAT as well (the rules on such things can be very odd, vide state schools).
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    If it is a whitewash, at least we know the cost of the bribe paid to the met...
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    Pagan2 said:

    I know people regard me as an angry voice and yes I am here far more than I would like to be. But the argument I am having with @bondegezou is symptomatic.

    Simply put 40 to 50 years ago a household could live on the wage of one earner. Policy really hasnt changed that much over that time and now its common for households with 2 full time earners to be struggling. The argument from people like him is oh we need to keep on doing what we are doing, this was also the argument for remaining.

    Sadly for most people in this country what we are doing really isnt working for them and year by year they feel poorer and poorer and struggle more and more while the upper echelons of society seem to get richer and richer.

    Things need to change, the brexit vote was a result of this, my diatribe about doing essentials is part of this. Will they work? I really have no idea. However for a lot of this country just carrying on with the same old same old is not an option as all they see from past experience is they will slowly have less and less.

    The fact that Brexit was being promoted by precisely the same people (Thatcherite ideologues backed by footloose capital) who had engineered the whole rich get richer while everyone else struggles shenanigans in the first place didn't seem to register with people.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,205
    ydoethur said:

    I am more interested to know how issuing a few questionnaires and FPNs and looking at a few photos could take up a sufficient amount of staff time to cost £460,000.

    They didn't even investigate properly, and most of the work had been done for them by Gray, so how on Earth could it come to that figure? That's the equivalent of hiring four full-time officers for a year.
    Or 20 coppers for a fifth of a year, which is closer to the mark. What it really shows is all these numbers are stupid anyway as they neglect standing costs. The police would have to be paid anyway. It is not as if the Met spent £460,000 on hiring private jets, which might be a genuine cost.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,778

    I'm with @Mexicanpete. This has been a total establishment stitch-up to save the PM.

    It stinks to high heaven.



    Evidence please.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Or 20 coppers for a fifth of a year, which is closer to the mark. What it really shows is all these numbers are stupid anyway as they neglect standing costs. The police would have to be paid anyway. It is not as if the Met spent £460,000 on hiring private jets, which might be a genuine cost.
    A massive waste of police time nonetheless, whether in London or Durham.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,778
    edited May 2022

    The Met have confirmed that of the 5 events Johnson was known to have attended the police only investigated him personally for two (questionnaires issued for just the two events) including the cake event, which handily brought down Sunak.

    Reports are that Juniors were obliging to Gray whereas Seniors and some politicians in general were not. I suspect Sunak was truthful.They did not expect the Gray Report to be hijacked and used as evidence for the prosecution.

    I personally think that Johnson not being investigated is remarkable, but Case, with the evidence we have seen ourselves not getting an FPN is astonishing.

    Big Dog is saved...by the less than lamented Cressida Dick!
    So hearsay and rumour. Ok.

    But if they didn’t expect the Gray report to be hijacked they are too naive to be in Downing Street.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327

    12 officers for three months. Sounds about right.
    As a tax payer I would have been happy to personally pay the postage to send Johnson the three questionnaires the Met inadvertently forgot to send him.

    Andrew Bridgen has now declared Johnson has been given a clean bill of health, so all is good.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited May 2022
    Currently Coalition won 45 seats, Labor 42, Others 4.

    60 still in doubt
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    The Met have confirmed that of the 5 events Johnson was known to have attended the police only investigated him personally for two (questionnaires issued for just the two events) including the cake event, which handily brought down Sunak.

    Reports are that Juniors were obliging to Gray whereas Seniors and some politicians in general were not. I suspect Sunak was truthful.They did not expect the Gray Report to be hijacked and used as evidence for the prosecution.

    I personally think that Johnson not being investigated is remarkable, but Case, with the evidence we have seen ourselves not getting an FPN is astonishing.

    Big Dog is saved...by the less than lamented Cressida Dick!
    Sounds like the conspiracy theorists are out in force. Next we will have Big Dog saved by an unholy cabal of the Police, Freemasons and MI5
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808

    The fact that Brexit was being promoted by precisely the same people (Thatcherite ideologues backed by footloose capital) who had engineered the whole rich get richer while everyone else struggles shenanigans in the first place didn't seem to register with people.
    Doesnt matter who was promoting it the fact was while in the eu the bottom half of the country had been sliding into poverty further and further....the argument to keep on as were doing therefore really didnt appeal to them because all that offered them was a continued slide into greater and greater poverty. You can certainly argue that it won't help but then staying in the eu wasn't going to help either so they rolled the dice and took a gamble that just maybe it would and for quite a few it has. People who are actually seeing payrises now whereas before they were condemned to minimum wage for the forseeable future. Oh yes forgot you are a left winger and the only good wage rises for the proles are those they get by hiking minimum wage
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,778
    Carnyx said:

    They can't molest each other so easily. That's another advantage. And as for subsidised food, just give them £10- Luncheon Vouchers or the equivalent in M&S tokens.
    I am sure @NickPalmer would have a view, but in my experience the ability of an MP to chat to a minister in the lobby is a very valuable informal channel to ensure their constituents are looked after
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    The fact that Brexit was being promoted by precisely the same people (Thatcherite ideologues backed by footloose capital) who had engineered the whole rich get richer while everyone else struggles shenanigans in the first place didn't seem to register with people.
    However, not just by those. It was also pushed by those on the far-left as well. Hence the views of a certain J Corbyn when it came to such matters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited May 2022
    Coalition 35%, Labor 30%, Greens 12% on primary vote.

    Labor 50.1% Coalition 49.9% on 2PP so far.

    Anthony Green, poll guru for ABC, saying a hung parliament most likely outcome
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    HYUFD said:

    Currently Coalition won 45 seats, Labor 42, Others 4.

    60 still in doubt

    Of course that "won" figure is itself an estimate based on how safe a seat it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Antony Green — hung parliament looks likely.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    MrEd said:

    Sounds like the conspiracy theorists are out in force. Next we will have Big Dog saved by an unholy cabal of the Police, Freemasons and MI5
    Someone on pb has already invoked freemasonry (Thursday?)
This discussion has been closed.