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Potty punters continue to make Burnham favourite to succeed Starmer – politicalbetting.com

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  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited May 2022

    Somehow doubt they are putting their trust in Boris Johnson.

    More like, in the "Demented Vegetable".

    Betting that, even if (God forbid!) 45 regains the White House, even he isn't Cnut enough to turn back the tide.
    If 45 gets the nomination (he will), he's a shoo in. He will be 47. Biden has even worse favourables than he did, Harris is even worse than that, they will get destroyed in November and it's all head winds from here. He'll break 350 in the college.
    Parent led conservative backlash in the US, school board elections are showing the direction of travel. Wokism has overplayed its hand there big time.

    Just my opinion of course but put the farm on 45 for 24
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    I would go for Rachel.

    Bridget is an interesting wildcard choice, she has impressed me of late. Think she will hold her seat handily although I do take Woolie’s point.

    I like Streets but I do think the party will want a lady this time.

    'Bridget; is an Oxford-educated typical middle-class public sector leftie. There is a reason her majority has been dropping aka she doesn't relate well to her constituents.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,442
    MrEd said:

    Oxford is ok, it's those Cambridge tossers that are the problem.
    We could stretch to Hull, of course.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    kle4 said:

    Candidate status seems the least that could be done and pretty easy. Membership itself, sure, the EU will want to take time, but if there's will and support decades seems pessimistic.
    Macron really is a cock.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    RobD said:

    Good God. Facts?
    Watch Scott's head explode in 3,2,1......
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited May 2022

    I would go for Rachel.

    Bridget is an interesting wildcard choice, she has impressed me of late. Think she will hold her seat handily although I do take Woolie’s point.

    I like Streets but I do think the party will want a lady this time.

    I've not looked at the boundary proposals in Sunderland tbf, that may make her Job much easier
    Quick peek suggests she takes the Washingtin and Sunderland SW swat more easily and my speculative gain would be central
  • This is a Government out of ideas.

    If they win in 2024 Labour need to ask why because they really should walk it
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,166

    We could stretch to Hull, of course.
    Starmer went to Leeds if that helps?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Fair point and objective not what you heard from the PB Tories of course
    Hello Horse, do I fall into your category of PB Tories :) ?
  • EXCLUSIVE

    I am told documents have been passed to Durham Police that Labour claims exonerate Starmer and prove comprehensively that he did follow the rules.
  • MrEd said:

    Hello Horse, do I fall into your category of PB Tories :) ?
    No idea. But you are a nice chap as always despite the bullying you continue to face for no good reason.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    We could stretch to Hull, of course.
    Certainly far better than Cambridge. Even Wolverhampton Uni would be better.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,442
    MrEd said:

    Watch Scott's head explode in 3,2,1......
    Nah, he has filters that carefully screen out anything that doesn’t agree with his view of Brexit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600

    Some issues with Streeting (who I like): London MP. Second referendum campaigner. Ex-NUS president. Worked for Stonewall.
    Nandy: Wigan MP. Against a second referendum. Wanted Brexit done (soft version).
    So Streeting would be easier for the right wing press to attack than Nandy.
    Labour members will never vote for Nandy for that reason, she is too Brexity, hence she got just 16% in 2020 from them.

    She is also a bit of a lightweight and would probably leak Remainers to the LDs, especially in London and the South, without winning many Leavers from the Tories
  • HYUFD said:

    Labour members will never vote for Nandy for that reason, she is too Brexity, hence she got just 16% in 2020 from them.

    She is also a bit of a lightweight and would probably leak Remainers to the LDs, especially in London and the South, without winning many Leavers from the Tories
    Nah Brexit is irrelevant. She’s just crap
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    Foxy said:

    FFS can't we look a little wider afield than oxbridge tossers?
    John Major, Gordon Brown?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    No idea. But you are a nice chap as always despite the bullying you continue to face for no good reason.
    Thank you Horse, you are also a very decent person. Despite our obvious political differences, it is good to know that we can respect each others point of view.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,442

    This is a Government out of ideas.

    If they win in 2024 Labour need to ask why because they really should walk it

    Labour need to show that they have ideas. Time is running out for that. It’s fine up to a point to keep your powder dry, but at some point they need to start looking like a government in waiting. What does Keir do on day 1?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,137
    Nigelb said:

    I recall Thatcher opposing reunification.
    Am I right in thinking it was down to instinctive resistance to a strong, militarised Germany?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,829
    edited May 2022

    No idea but my favourite curry venue once refused to serve me it, as too bland for me. Genuinely.
    I remember asking a waiter in the legendary Wong Kei* for the same as a Chinese chap was having at the next table. "You don't want that" he said, as he walked off.

    The service there was incredible. In the unbelievable sense!

    *it used to revel in its reputation as the rudest restaraunt in London, but has gone soft now.
  • MrEd said:

    Thank you Horse, you are also a very decent person. Despite our obvious political differences, it is good to know that we can respect each others point of view.
    I have great respect for people that air their views in the way you do.

    I am sure there is no coincidence you have awful abuse just as HYUFD does. It is because you will argue your point coherently and without shouting.

    We could all learn a lot from you both.

    I hope you are keeping well.

    Are you a Londoner I forget friend
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    Not an MP, never heard of him, lost, will have to resign. So it's Reeves?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,442

    Starmer went to Leeds if that helps?
    It was more a Blackadder reference, but if I’m explaining I’m losing...
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Nah, he has filters that carefully screen out anything that doesn’t agree with his view of Brexit.
    I always think of Scott as hiding in his bunker Downfall-style waiting for Steiner's - sorry, the Remainers' - army to come to his rescue and save the day.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    kle4 said:

    I thought they'd dropped that already months ago when Jenrik was sacked.

    Councils and public will love no legally binding housing targets, but how on earth is the housing needed going to be built if the government makes it easier to resist developments? A lot of the planning system is about rules that mean permission should be granted even if local people don't want it, as you won't build enough just by what people want.

    As for the planning system being digitized, 'making plans more accessible online' as far as I know planners put it all online already anyway. Some applications will have hundreds of documents.
    Local communities deciding housing targets based on local need, not concreting all over the greenbelt via Whitehall diktat
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,166
    HYUFD said:

    Labour members will never vote for Nandy for that reason, she is too Brexity, hence she got just 16% in 2020 from them.

    She is also a bit of a lightweight and would probably leak Remainers to the LDs, especially in London and the South, without winning many Leavers from the Tories
    FWIW i don't think Nandy is a lightweight.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,829

    Labour need to show that they have ideas. Time is running out for that. It’s fine up to a point to keep your powder dry, but at some point they need to start looking like a government in waiting. What does Keir do on day 1?
    I don't expect detail, but some vague ideas would be nice.
  • Hey tubbs hope you are keeping well.

    Yes agree Labour need to put something out now.

    Windfall tax has been an excellent start though
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,442
    MrEd said:

    I always think of Scott as hiding in his bunker Downfall-style waiting for Steiner's - sorry, the Remainers' - army to come to his rescue and save the day.
    He does seem VERY upset. Way more than most, even to political obsessives on pb.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,421

    No idea but my favourite curry venue once refused to serve me it, as too bland for me. Genuinely.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p06rj0nn
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    edited May 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Local communities deciding housing targets based on local need, not concreting all over the greenbelt via Whitehall diktat
    Right, so virtually no housing being built? (leaving aside the difference between building on Green Belt and just building on fields, which is what people often mean).

    No one likes approving housing, because voters don't like it where it happens, but there is a reason governments of both types have had rules to encourage it happening, rather than discourage it.

    So what's the plan? Presumably they still want plenty of housing, and your own experience on a council surely shows local communities will approve as little as possible in most cases if they can, so what's the answer?

    I'm not trying to trick you, I just can't see how the aim of more housing is planned to be achieved - no one liked the previous proposals, but they went down that route presumably out of desperation at the need to build more.
  • Bonfire of Brussels laws for growth.. but nowt for cost of living… just yet.

    How many times has this been announced now?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    Foxy said:

    I don't expect detail, but some vague ideas would be nice.
    Is the median voter not a little scared of ideas after a decade of ideas. They got austerity, coalition, Brexit and a glimpse of socialism. E.g. it looks like the government is accepting that there is no idea about housing that will win more votes than it loses.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886
    Foxy said:

    FFS can't we look a little wider afield than oxbridge tossers?
    Nah.
    They have "unattractive" accents. The Oxbridge ones are "too posh".
    Vote Tory. No one else is right and proper.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,829

    Hey tubbs hope you are keeping well.

    Yes agree Labour need to put something out now.

    Windfall tax has been an excellent start though

    No, a windfall tax is just vacuous. What happens when the "windfall" ends? There needs to be a serious plan.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,442

    Hey tubbs hope you are keeping well.

    Yes agree Labour need to put something out now.

    Windfall tax has been an excellent start though

    Good thanks. Aside of too much time chatting rubbish on pb of course. On a windfall tax I can see the attraction in the short term, but there are downsides. How do we make energy affordable in 2023, 2024 etc. And should I, and the other well off folk on pb get help that we probably dont need, or should it go to Brenda who rides a bus to stay warm?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,872

    Am I right in thinking it was down to instinctive resistance to a strong, militarised Germany?
    No - she had this crazy idea that a reunited Germany would be bigger than France, economically and politically, and would end up dominating the politics of Europe.

    Totally wrong there, wasn’t she?
  • Good thanks. Aside of too much time chatting rubbish on pb of course. On a windfall tax I can see the attraction in the short term, but there are downsides. How do we make energy affordable in 2023, 2024 etc. And should I, and the other well off folk on pb get help that we probably dont need, or should it go to Brenda who rides a bus to stay warm?
    Tubbs you make excellent posts, some of the best here.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    edited May 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Nah.
    They have "unattractive" accents. The Oxbridge ones are "too posh".
    Vote Tory. No one else is right and proper.
    As OGH frequently reminds us the last non Oxbridge leader to win a general election against an Oxbridge educated leader was Churchill in 1951 v Attlee but then Churchill went to the superior public school, Harrow to Attlee's Haileybury, even if Churchill unlike Attlee did not go to Oxford.

    Plus of course Attlee did beat Churchill in 1945 and 1950
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,829

    Bonfire of Brussels laws for growth.. but nowt for cost of living… just yet.

    How many times has this been announced now?

    Nearly as many times as the end of the NI protocol...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,872
    kle4 said:

    Right, so virtually no housing being built? (leaving aside the difference between building on Green Belt and just building on fields, which is what people often mean).

    No one likes approving housing, because voters don't like it where it happens, but there is a reason governments of both types have had rules to encourage it happening, rather than discourage it.

    So what's the plan? Presumably they still want plenty of housing, and your own experience on a council surely shows local communities will approve as little as possible in most cases if they can, so what's the answer?

    I'm not trying to trick you, I just can't see how the aim of more housing is planned to be achieved - no one liked the previous proposals, but they went down that route presumably out of desperation at the need to build more.
    £1k in the pocket of each councillor for each house they approve to be built.

    Million houses a year, here we come….
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,199

    EXCLUSIVE

    I am told documents have been passed to Durham Police that Labour claims exonerate Starmer and prove comprehensively that he did follow the rules.

    And the Daily Mail don't have Beer-probably not-Gate on their front page. Instead, they have found an even bigger foe to conquer;

    DEATH KNELL FOR WORK FROM HOME
    New law to make WFH easier axed from Queen's Speech

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1524140152167227392
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,723

    Nah Brexit is irrelevant. She’s just crap
    I remember overhearing/eavesdropping on some Labour Party members in a pub in Manchester, January 2020, discussing the leadership. All of them loved Nandy. "She's not a leader, though, is she?" No one demurred.
    FWIW, the consensus back then was Starmer, though without enthusiasm. Though obviously one table at a pub is not representative of the party at large.

    If I was Labour I'd go for Bridget Phillipson. Though please Bridget, tone the lipstick down! (This is a personal thing. I've realised, rather belatedly in life, that what I feel is not a simple dislike for lipstick on a woman, but an actual feeling of physical revulsion. I don't know if I'm unique in this.)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    edited May 2022

    No - she had this crazy idea that a reunited Germany would be bigger than France, economically and politically, and would end up dominating the politics of Europe.

    Totally wrong there, wasn’t she?
    If she felt that was so big a negative it meant Germany should not be reunited, yes, she was massively wrong. It's the sort of thing someone who has been leader too long comes up with, overthinking things in an attempt to be the Bismarkian statesman playing geopolitical games they are in their own heads.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    kle4 said:

    Right, so virtually no housing being built? (leaving aside the difference between building on Green Belt and just building on fields, which is what people often mean).

    No one likes approving housing, because voters don't like it where it happens, but there is a reason governments of both types have had rules to encourage it happening, rather than discourage it.

    So what's the plan? Presumably they still want plenty of housing, and your own experience on a council surely shows local communities will approve as little as possible in most cases if they can, so what's the answer?

    I'm not trying to trick you, I just can't see how the aim of more housing is planned to be achieved - no one liked the previous proposals, but they went down that route presumably out of desperation at the need to build more.
    It has already come through each council producing local plans setting out housing targets in their area for the next decade or two and where it will go
  • Foxy said:

    Nearly as many times as the end of the NI protocol...
    Hey Foxy! How are you sir.

    I am off Avamys for nose now onto Dynamist
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347

    And the Daily Mail don't have Beer-probably not-Gate on their front page. Instead, they have found an even bigger foe to conquer;

    DEATH KNELL FOR WORK FROM HOME
    New law to make WFH easier axed from Queen's Speech

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1524140152167227392
    Death knell seems dramatic even for them. Plenty of places are getting by WFH just now without whatever law was previously intended to make it easier.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600

    And the Daily Mail don't have Beer-probably not-Gate on their front page. Instead, they have found an even bigger foe to conquer;

    DEATH KNELL FOR WORK FROM HOME
    New law to make WFH easier axed from Queen's Speech

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1524140152167227392
    Not going to end hybrid working though
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,532
    kle4 said:

    If she felt that was so big a negative it meant Germany should not be reunited, yes, she was massively wrong. It's the sort of thing someone who has been leader too long comes up with, overthinking things in an attempt to be the Bismarkian statesman playing geopolitical games they are in their own heads.
    Mitterrand had the same fears and his wheeze of tying a united Germany down by getting it to commit to the Euro may not have turned out as he hoped.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,985
    HYUFD said:

    Not going to end hybrid working though
    My office has really picked up. Weather related?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,442

    And the Daily Mail don't have Beer-probably not-Gate on their front page. Instead, they have found an even bigger foe to conquer;

    DEATH KNELL FOR WORK FROM HOME
    New law to make WFH easier axed from Queen's Speech

    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1524140152167227392
    There definitely seems to be some out there with a trust issue that staff working from are, you know, working.
    Years ago a family friend, who lives on Hayling Island, worked for an IoW firm. Mostly wfh, but once every couple of weeks would actually cross the water. Had a fantastic relationship with the boss. All good, excellent work done.
    You can see where it’s going.
    New boss, no worry from home.
    Not long before excellent worker leaves the firm.
    Depressing to think the UK government thinks like this.
  • Cookie said:

    I remember overhearing/eavesdropping on some Labour Party members in a pub in Manchester, January 2020, discussing the leadership. All of them loved Nandy. "She's not a leader, though, is she?" No one demurred.
    FWIW, the consensus back then was Starmer, though without enthusiasm. Though obviously one table at a pub is not representative of the party at large.

    If I was Labour I'd go for Bridget Phillipson. Though please Bridget, tone the lipstick down! (This is a personal thing. I've realised, rather belatedly in life, that what I feel is not a simple dislike for lipstick on a woman, but an actual feeling of physical revulsion. I don't know if I'm unique in this.)
    Hey Cookie! Hope you are well
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    edited May 2022
    HYUFD said:

    It has already come through each council producing local plans setting out housing targets in their area for the next decade or two and where it will go
    Housing targets that many hated because they were imposed by government (and were only approved on that basis), and which the government is saying they are going to scrap?

    Plans are required to be reviewed so often they don't actually last unchanged across the periods set out.

    But in essence your plan appears to be 'All councils everywhere have already set out all required housing targets for the next few decades, and that will meet all housing need'?

    So are you actually saying the government pledge about legally binding targets being scrapped is meaningless, since it won't take effect for decades?

    I'm really confused by your plan - Gove is usually clearer than this, at least to start with.
  • Hey kle4 hope you are well
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,872
    kle4 said:

    If she felt that was so big a negative it meant Germany should not be reunited, yes, she was massively wrong. It's the sort of thing someone who has been leader too long comes up with, overthinking things in an attempt to be the Bismarkian statesman playing geopolitical games they are in their own heads.
    You could argue that reunification and expansion of EU easy led to a mad rush to try and get to a United States of Europe in the lifetimes of somewhat elderly politicians.

    Said rush created the Greek crisis and BREXIT. Also gave us Orban pissing out the windows. And the current Polish government is a joy to behold…
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    edited May 2022

    Hey kle4 hope you are well

    Life may generally be a cavalcade of ridiculous happenings, but I can have no complaints.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,723
    edited May 2022

    Hey Cookie! Hope you are well
    Hello Horse, yes, I'm well thanks. Knee op 12 days ago and recovery is at the top end of expectations. Completely free of pain (only now do I realise that it was hurting basically all the time before the op) and, joyfully, now sleeping very well indeed.
    Delighted to hear life off the antidepressants is going well. Progress may not be linear - be prepared to have the odd bad day - but I'm sure the medium-term trend will be in the right direction.
    Also very pleased to hear of your cricketing progress. :-)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886
    Some positives for Nandy.
    Comprehensive educated. Female. Ethnic minority. Northern. Soft left. Soft Brexiter. Though voted Remain (as did many Cabinet Ministers).
    Ticks several boxes.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,829

    Hey Foxy! How are you sir.

    I am off Avamys for nose now onto Dynamist
    I am fine. Bit knackered by the NHS recovery plan.

    No idea what your last sentence means!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,442
    dixiedean said:

    Some positives for Nandy.
    Comprehensive educated. Female. Ethnic minority. Northern. Soft left. Soft Brexiter. Though voted Remain (as did many Cabinet Ministers).
    Ticks several boxes.

    Think she wouldn’t scare the moderate Tory voting shires either.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    dixiedean said:

    Some positives for Nandy.
    Comprehensive educated. Female. Ethnic minority. Northern. Soft left. Soft Brexiter. Though voted Remain (as did many Cabinet Ministers).
    Ticks several boxes.

    I think she is actually quite good. Certainly a better pick than many names mentioned, especially Streeting (Jesus, he is lame).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    edited May 2022

    You could argue that reunification and expansion of EU easy led to a mad rush to try and get to a United States of Europe in the lifetimes of somewhat elderly politicians.

    Said rush created the Greek crisis and BREXIT. Also gave us Orban pissing out the windows. And the current Polish government is a joy to behold…
    Much could be argued, but Thatcher was not a seer. I really doubt her reasoning extended to being able to predict even the generality of events taking places 30 years hence, indeed your own summary of her views was nothing more than simplistic fear that Germany would be more powerful, as if that inevitably would lead, rather tangentially, to crises at the periphery.

    Seems no more than the typical over egging of Thatcher's judgement and impact, positive and negative, that thankfully is becoming less frequent over the years.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,442
    Foxy said:

    I am fine. Bit knackered by the NHS recovery plan.

    No idea what your last sentence means!
    Think hay fever I suspect...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    edited May 2022

    Think she wouldn’t scare the moderate Tory voting shires either.
    She is a complete lightweight and a republican like Corbyn, which we Tories would make damn sure the Tory shires know about.

    She is too Brexity for Remainers who would start to shift back to the LDs (remember Labour lost more votes to the LDs in 2019 than the Tories), while still not Brexity enough for Boris backing Leavers in the redwall.

    She so has no charisma unlike Burnham or Streeting and no gravitas unlike Starmer or Cooper or even Reeves. Heck, even Rayner would be a better option for Labour than Nandy
  • Foxy said:

    I am fine. Bit knackered by the NHS recovery plan.

    No idea what your last sentence means!
    I’ve seen an ENT for my nose. It gets blocked a lot and can’t breathe well.

    They put me on Avamys spray initially which has not helped a lot. Now I am onto a new spray called Dynamist
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886
    MrEd said:

    I think she is actually quite good. Certainly a better pick than many names mentioned, especially Streeting (Jesus, he is lame).
    Yeah. Don't get Streeting at all. He's very young, mind. But not a Party leader as yet. Minor Cabinet role at best. Very bland.
    He's Starmer without a responsible job on his CV.
    Got an aversion to Jess Phillips. Can't pin it down. But no.
    Nandy's feisty without being gratuitously offensive (Rayner) or unnecessarily crude (Phillips).
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667
    kle4 said:

    Death knell seems dramatic even for them. Plenty of places are getting by WFH just now without whatever law was previously intended to make it easier.
    We've settled on a hybrid model - come into work two days a week, same days as your team; work from home the other days. It's fairly widely accepted. But I know of several other organisations that now allow 100% wfh, and they are getting a real recruitment edge, since people can live in the cheapest nice place in the country (or indeed overseas) and enjoy their preferred lifestyle regardless of where their employer is.

    Irrespective of how we feel about this, where would PBers choose to live if they were allowed to work from anywhere, weighing up both enjoyment and cost? Say the same time zone, with good broadband, so you can't pick the Seychelles.

    I'd probably go back to Nottingham, which I suspect is not a universal choice...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    edited May 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Yeah. Don't get Streeting at all. He's very young, mind. But not a Party leader as yet. Minor Cabinet role at best. Very bland.
    He's Starmer without a responsible job on his CV.
    Got an aversion to Jess Phillips. Can't pin it down. But no.
    Nandy's feisty without being gratuitously offensive (Rayner) or unnecessarily crude (Phillips).
    Nandy is IDS in a skirt but with less personality
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,829

    I’ve seen an ENT for my nose. It gets blocked a lot and can’t breathe well.

    They put me on Avamys spray initially which has not helped a lot. Now I am onto a new spray called Dynamist
    Breathing is good. I encourage it.

    Been watching the Bafta winning "In My Skin" myself. Rightly an award winner.

    Also watched Fergus Keane on PTSD, rather gruelling film clips, but brilliant TV. The BBC can really do great stuff when it wants to do so.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886
    edited May 2022
    HYUFD said:

    She is a complete lightweight and a republican like Corbyn, which we Tories would make damn sure the Tory shires know about.

    She is too Brexity for Remainers who would start to shift back to the LDs (remember Labour lost more votes to the LDs in 2019 than the Tories), while still not Brexity enough for Boris backing Leavers in the redwall.

    She so has no charisma unlike Burnham or Streeting and no gravitas unlike Starmer or Cooper or even Reeves. Heck, even Rayner would be a better option for Labour than Nandy
    Big reason why Makerfield stayed Labour and Leigh didn't despite slightly worse demographics.
    Lots of voters thought they were voting for Lisa Nandy the "Wigan" MP.
    She's pretty well liked in a classic Red Wall town.
    PS.
    Streeting has charisma?
    It's in the eye of the beholder I know. But crikey, that's some statement.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    dixiedean said:

    Yeah. Don't get Streeting at all. He's very young, mind. But not a Party leader as yet. Minor Cabinet role at best. Very bland.
    He's Starmer without a responsible job on his CV.
    Got an aversion to Jess Phillips. Can't pin it down. But no.
    Nandy's feisty without being gratuitously offensive (Rayner) or unnecessarily crude (Phillips).
    I actually quite like Rayner as well but mainly because she reminds me of my time in the Manchester clubs...
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,749
    HYUFD said:

    She is a complete lightweight and a republican like Corbyn, which we Tories would make damn sure the Tory shires know about.

    She is too Brexity for Remainers who would start to shift back to the LDs (remember Labour lost more votes to the LDs in 2019 than the Tories), while still not Brexity enough for Boris backing Leavers in the redwall.

    She so has no charisma unlike Burnham or Streeting and no gravitas unlike Starmer or Cooper or even Reeves. Heck, even Rayner would be a better option for Labour than Nandy
    Nandy's really not Brexity. Just like you, she voted remain. And just like you, she thought the result of the referendum, though disappointing, should be respected.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    HYUFD said:

    Nandy is IDS in a skirt
    Well, that's someone's fantasy, but I don't want to know whose.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,723
    HYUFD said:

    She is a complete lightweight and a republican like Corbyn, which we Tories would make damn sure the Tory shires know about.

    She is too Brexity for Remainers who would start to shift back to the LDs (remember Labour lost more votes to the LDs in 2019 than the Tories), while still not Brexity enough for Boris backing Leavers in the redwall.

    She so has no charisma unlike Burnham or Streeting and no gravitas unlike Starmer or Cooper or even Reeves. Heck, even Rayner would be a better option for Labour than Nandy
    I suspect Nandy's republicanism is like Starmer's - felt but not really acted upon. It doesn't really feel like a live issue at the moment. And I think a campaign of 'but she's a republican' would look a little odd - like a campaign of 'but she's an atheist'. I think most monarchists are so for pragmatic rather than principled reasons, and don't see republicanism as beyond the pale.

    I think her Brexit position is unlikely to alienate too many. Brexity, but looking for pragmatic solutions. Not necessarily to my tastes, but could find favour. I can't be the only one to value consensuality.

    Agree on the charisma and gravitas though. And also behind the agreeable facade she occasionally comes out with some quite batty wokery.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,166
    MrEd said:

    I actually quite like Rayner as well but mainly because she reminds me of my time in the Manchester clubs...
    I really rate Nandy. Which probably means she is finished.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    HYUFD said:

    She is a complete lightweight and a republican like Corbyn, which we Tories would make damn sure the Tory shires know about.

    She is too Brexity for Remainers who would start to shift back to the LDs (remember Labour lost more votes to the LDs in 2019 than the Tories), while still not Brexity enough for Boris backing Leavers in the redwall.

    She so has no charisma unlike Burnham or Streeting and no gravitas unlike Starmer or Cooper or even Reeves. Heck, even Rayner would be a better option for Labour than Nandy
    Come on @HYUFD, Burnham and Streeting have charisma? I'll accept all your other posts on why a 10 point deficit is good for the Tories but that's a comment too far
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    dixiedean said:

    Big reason why Makerfield stayed Labour and Leigh didn't despite slightly worse demographics.
    Lots of voters thought they were voting for Lisa Nandy the "Wigan" MP.
    She's pretty well liked in a classic Red Wall town.
    PS.
    Streeting has charisma?
    It's in the eye of the beholder I know. But crikey.
    You beat me to it with the Streeting comment....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,872

    We've settled on a hybrid model - come into work two days a week, same days as your team; work from home the other days. It's fairly widely accepted. But I know of several other organisations that now allow 100% wfh, and they are getting a real recruitment edge, since people can live in the cheapest nice place in the country (or indeed overseas) and enjoy their preferred lifestyle regardless of where their employer is.

    Irrespective of how we feel about this, where would PBers choose to live if they were allowed to work from anywhere, weighing up both enjoyment and cost? Say the same time zone, with good broadband, so you can't pick the Seychelles.

    I'd probably go back to Nottingham, which I suspect is not a universal choice...
    Good broadband is anywhere now - see Starlink. Time zones can be +-2, easily.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,723
    dixiedean said:

    Big reason why Makerfield stayed Labour and Leigh didn't despite slightly worse demographics.
    Lots of voters thought they were voting for Lisa Nandy the "Wigan" MP.
    She's pretty well liked in a classic Red Wall town.
    PS.
    Streeting has charisma?
    It's in the eye of the beholder I know. But crikey.
    I thought Makerfield was Yvonne Forvague (sp?)
    Or is that your point - Lisa's charms not only win her own seat but her neighbours' too?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,161

    We've settled on a hybrid model - come into work two days a week, same days as your team; work from home the other days. It's fairly widely accepted. But I know of several other organisations that now allow 100% wfh, and they are getting a real recruitment edge, since people can live in the cheapest nice place in the country (or indeed overseas) and enjoy their preferred lifestyle regardless of where their employer is.

    Irrespective of how we feel about this, where would PBers choose to live if they were allowed to work from anywhere, weighing up both enjoyment and cost? Say the same time zone, with good broadband, so you can't pick the Seychelles.

    I'd probably go back to Nottingham, which I suspect is not a universal choice...
    I don't understand the mindset of working from home. To me home should be a work-free place. But I'm obviously out of touch with the times.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    edited May 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    I don't understand the mindset of working from home. To me home should be a work-free place. But I'm obviously out of touch with the times.
    That's my preference as well, but I can understand the conveniences for many people around issues of commuting, school runs etc, especially if they have a decent amount of space. Even I will occasionally make use of the flexibility.

    My main concern is some are so keen on WFH that they ignore or trivialise any concerns, as if nothing could possibly be done better in person. Rottenborough touches upon some of those issues.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,166

    We've settled on a hybrid model - come into work two days a week, same days as your team; work from home the other days. It's fairly widely accepted. But I know of several other organisations that now allow 100% wfh, and they are getting a real recruitment edge, since people can live in the cheapest nice place in the country (or indeed overseas) and enjoy their preferred lifestyle regardless of where their employer is.

    Irrespective of how we feel about this, where would PBers choose to live if they were allowed to work from anywhere, weighing up both enjoyment and cost? Say the same time zone, with good broadband, so you can't pick the Seychelles.

    I'd probably go back to Nottingham, which I suspect is not a universal choice...
    "I know of several other organisations that now allow 100% wfh, and they are getting a real recruitment edge,"

    Personally FWIW I think this is awful and utterly depressing if true that people would rather stay at home and only meet work mates once a month or so.

    Atomisation.

    And of course only available to the laptop class of society.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,872
    kle4 said:

    Much could be argued, but Thatcher was not a seer. I really doubt her reasoning extended to being able to predict even the generality of events taking places 30 years hence, indeed your own summary of her views was nothing more than simplistic fear that Germany would be more powerful, as if that inevitably would lead, rather tangentially, to crises at the periphery.

    Seems no more than the typical over egging of Thatcher's judgement and impact, positive and negative, that thankfully is becoming less frequent over the years.
    The problem - which she foresaw - was that the dynamic of Europe changed from U.K., France and West Germany as kinda-equal, to German being the biggest.

    We have just seen the latest fallout of that dominance - Germany pushed for Russian gas, despite many others in Europe saying hang on. Only Putin managed to stop Nord Stream ….
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    dixiedean said:

    Big reason why Makerfield stayed Labour and Leigh didn't despite slightly worse demographics.
    Lots of voters thought they were voting for Lisa Nandy the "Wigan" MP.
    She's pretty well liked in a classic Red Wall town.
    PS.
    Streeting has charisma?
    It's in the eye of the beholder I know. But crikey, that's some statement.
    Result in Nandy's seat of Wigan in 2019? A 9% swing from Labour to the Conservatives, above the 4.5% UK average swing to the Tories.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wigan_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Result in Streeting's seat of Ilford North in 2019? A 3% swing from Labour to the Conservatives, below the UK average.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilford_North_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,421
    HYUFD said:

    She is a complete lightweight
    No, that's JRM :lol:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    edited May 2022
    Cookie said:

    I suspect Nandy's republicanism is like Starmer's - felt but not really acted upon. It doesn't really feel like a live issue at the moment. And I think a campaign of 'but she's a republican' would look a little odd - like a campaign of 'but she's an atheist'. I think most monarchists are so for pragmatic rather than principled reasons, and don't see republicanism as beyond the pale.

    I think her Brexit position is unlikely to alienate too many. Brexity, but looking for pragmatic solutions. Not necessarily to my tastes, but could find favour. I can't be the only one to value consensuality.

    Agree on the charisma and gravitas though. And also behind the agreeable facade she occasionally comes out with some quite batty wokery.
    Starmer has now said he backs a reformed monarchy. Even Long Bailey said she supported the monarchy in the Labour leadership debate as has Rayner but Nandy said she was a republican and that is instant cannon fodder for Tory election broadcasts in Middle England to tie her in with Corbynism, Corbyn also being a republican
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,251

    EXCLUSIVE

    I am told documents have been passed to Durham Police that Labour claims exonerate Starmer and prove comprehensively that he did follow the rules.

    "that Labour claims"

    lol.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347

    The problem - which she foresaw - was that the dynamic of Europe changed from U.K., France and West Germany as kinda-equal, to German being the biggest.

    We have just seen the latest fallout of that dominance - Germany pushed for Russian gas, despite many others in Europe saying hang on. Only Putin managed to stop Nord Stream ….
    She foresaw that if things changed then things would change? What a prognosticator!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,096

    I think you need to go back and re-remember how the EU tried to fuck us over on vaccines.... Because we were making them look bad.

    Macron commenting on the quality of our vaccine ring any bells?
    Sure Macron's a bellend (something we all know).

    I actually think that Brexit benefitted both the EU and the UK wrt vaccines. Our early outperformance led them to throw caution to the wind and make a massive Pfizer order. The consequence of which is that - after a rocky couple of initial months - the EU ended up performing quite well with vaccines.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886
    Cookie said:

    I thought Makerfield was Yvonne Forvague (sp?)
    Or is that your point - Lisa's charms not only win her own seat but her neighbours' too?
    I'm only going off anecdotal reports from my Mother. Leigh sees itself in opposition to Wigan.
    Makerfield, which could easily be named Wigan South, (the less posh bit) is firmly Wigan.
    Mums's canvassing reports said many in Makerfield said they'd vote Labour cos they liked Lisa Nandy the Wigan MP.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,723
    edited May 2022

    We've settled on a hybrid model - come into work two days a week, same days as your team; work from home the other days. It's fairly widely accepted. But I know of several other organisations that now allow 100% wfh, and they are getting a real recruitment edge, since people can live in the cheapest nice place in the country (or indeed overseas) and enjoy their preferred lifestyle regardless of where their employer is.

    Irrespective of how we feel about this, where would PBers choose to live if they were allowed to work from anywhere, weighing up both enjoyment and cost? Say the same time zone, with good broadband, so you can't pick the Seychelles.

    I'd probably go back to Nottingham, which I suspect is not a universal choice...
    Pleased to hear you'd go back to Nottingham. Would you live in that little village in Broxtowe you used to live in, or in the city?

    I know exactly where I would live - I have spent considerable mental energy on this. I have a ranked list. But the Lake District comes top. Specifically, I think, Windermere: I'd like to live in a town, and the great thing about tourist towns is that they have life out of all proportion to their size. But Windermere feels a little more 'real' and a little less chocolate boxy than Bowness. And also, it has a station. Which I may not use that often, but I would value the potential to reach the outside world easily without a car. And it's that little bit closer to civilisation (i.e. almsot any destination outside the Lake District that I might want) than Keswick, which would be the other choice.
    I know real life doesn't work like this - but I think I would be happy every single day. I have been to the Lake District time and time and time again over the last 40-odd years, and never felt anything but happy there. I know it's different when you're on holiday, and there would be practical irritations of life. But those irritations would be to the backdrop of the uttermost beauty. And also, it would be home. There are hundreds of beautiful places in the world - the Italian Alps, New England, Dalmatia, to name but three - but all of them feel like someone else's beauty. I remember a wonderful week by Lake Garda - I loved it, I really did: I ate well, the weather was perfect, the scenery divine - but I found myself longing for a sticky toffee pudding and a pint of real ale. The Lake District feels like mine; like a distillation of what I think home should be.

    I saw the perfect house come up for sale there a couple of years back. We could have afforded it - just. But it was before working from home, or even hybrid working, felt properly doable. Now I could do it, and even getting to Manchester a couple of days a week is doable. But the moment's gone. And realistically, I've lived in my Mancunian suburb for ten years now and have a whole thicket of roots here; I have friends whose company I enjoy and upon whom I can rely in a crisis; my wife has friends, my kids have friends, my parents and my in-laws are both within half an hour - all of whom will need increasing amounts of looking after over the next fifteen years. The moment has passed. The time to choose to live where you really want is before you put down roots, and really, life is pretty good where I am. But I do sometimes try to work out if there's a way things could have worked out differently.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886
    edited May 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Result in Nandy's seat of Wigan in 2019? A 9% swing from Labour to the Conservatives, above the 4.5% UK average swing to the Tories.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wigan_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Result in Streeting's seat of Ilford North in 2019? A 3% swing from Labour to the Conservatives, below the UK average.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilford_North_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    You appear to think that is an argument.
    Everyone knows the swings were to the Labour in London and worse further north.
    The point is. How to change that?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    "that Labour claims"

    lol.
    Jonathan Aitken has passed them his sword of truth
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,096
    Nigelb said:

    Is this a piss take ?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1524120716148363271
    Hungarian President Viktor Orban asserted that parts of the Adriatic Sea coast had been “taken” from Hungary.

    He said Hungary would not have problems with🇷🇺oil embargo if the sea which is now the Croatian coast had not been "taken."

    Basically all of Croatia lies between Hungary and the sea. Is Orban proposing getting rid of Croatia?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,872
    kle4 said:

    She foresaw that if things changed then things would change? What a prognosticator!
    One country dominating has turned out to be bad for Europe.

    As opposed to 3 sort of equal large countries with states such as Italy and Spain being close in clout, in many ways.

    If you don’t want to see that - fine.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,723
    rcs1000 said:

    Basically all of Croatia lies between Hungary and the sea. Is Orban proposing getting rid of Croatia?
    Near enough: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lands_of_the_Crown_of_Saint_Stephen
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771

    "I know of several other organisations that now allow 100% wfh, and they are getting a real recruitment edge,"

    Personally FWIW I think this is awful and utterly depressing if true that people would rather stay at home and only meet work mates once a month or so.

    Atomisation.

    And of course only available to the laptop class of society.

    Having thoroughly enjoyed our monthly get-together today (not to mention a weekly meetup with nearby colleagues) I vastly prefer the 5 years we've spent 100% remote, spending time with my family, rather than hours of commuting.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886
    edited May 2022

    "I know of several other organisations that now allow 100% wfh, and they are getting a real recruitment edge,"

    Personally FWIW I think this is awful and utterly depressing if true that people would rather stay at home and only meet work mates once a month or so.

    Atomisation.

    And of course only available to the laptop class of society.

    Capitalism is about choice. Can't buck the market? Suck it up.
    I have several work colleagues I'd prefer not to see once a decade.
This discussion has been closed.