Options
Potty punters continue to make Burnham favourite to succeed Starmer – politicalbetting.com
Potty punters continue to make Burnham favourite to succeed Starmer – politicalbetting.com
I have made this point repeatedly before but nothing drives me mad more at the moment than those who are betting on Andy Burnham as the successor to Keir Starmer.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
EDIT: Second like everyone else.
Punters look at the alternatives - and despair.
Unfortunately, it needs many things to change. Including the sex that Burnham self-identifies as....
I'm not sure I see him returning to national politics, to be honest. He seems to be doing far better as Mayor than he ever did as a minister.
His views on the Holocaust shall we say were not based in the facts and evidence.
It was in a bit of trouble when Cameron's "renegotiation" - the central basis for going to the voters with our new, shiny, improved deal with the EU - was put on the verboten list.
By the Remain campaign.
Thereby acknowledging the very reason many of those voting Leave "actually have a point". And meaning Cameron had to defend the UK's position in the EU prior to the renegotiation - the shit position that required a renegotiation.
And then Cameron called us Little Englanders for rubbishing his rubbish deal. Way to go, Dave. Add anger, indignation and determination to vote against him to the list.
Thick Of It, meet Mr Kafka....
Okay, so Brexit is done. I'm putting my 'bloke on the Clapham omnibus who voted for Brexit' hat on and asking - what difference has it made to my life? I'm struggling. I'm aware of some downsides, though they don't affect me much. But what are the upsides? Okay, I hear that wages have risen in some, but not that many, low-skilled sectors, but that may be as much due to Covid as Brexit, and anyway I don't work in a low-skilled sector.
So a serious, genuine question. How has Brexit benefitted me, who voted for it? How has my government used these new freedoms/sovereignty to improve my life? If it was such a good idea, people ought to be able to answer this by now, with specific, tangible examples that affect me - but I'm struggling. Help.
And he's the current king over water
https://www.thelocal.se/20220510/boris-johnson-to-sign-defence-deal-in-sweden-on-wednesday/
7/1 the field I think...
I'm very familiar with the notion. We've got a gerrymander* at Holyrood and we've got one at Westminster, by any sane standard.
I don't recall we had a referendum on Westminster voting systems, and the 1997 referendum only asked if we wanted a Scottish Parliament, and a supplementary about its tax-modifying powers.
Do we need referenda whenever we have a revision og boundaries? When the Tories gerrymander by insisting on photo ID rather than making elections truly secure?
TBF I'm not sure - but it's not been regarded as too much of an issue in the past.
*Edit: albeit one that has had unintended consequences for its SLD/Slab makers.
He might have changed career or moved jobs and realised that you don’t suddenly start shooting through the company immediately.
He might have worked for a company who got bought out and it took a few years for the changes and benefits to be clear.
The problem is that everyone on both sides of the Brexit debate seems to think that any benefits etc would or should be immediately apparent.
The bad side will inevitably hit first - Brexit is a long project and to think it would all be unicorns from day one is dumb.
If Brexit was good it won’t really be evident for maybe a generation - especially as the EU evolves and many who might have been anti-Brexit might find themselves thinking they are glad we de-coupled. It could of course be a shitshow and we end up as a failed state…..
I thought he would get a FPN if he broke the rules as the situation is different from Cummings. I can’t see Durham police going to all this effort to then say he broke the rules but we don’t do retrospective fines .
They may be making the prediction that even this site has made - that Starmer will be Prime Minister after the next election, and therefore in post as Labour leader for a few years to come.
It’s FPTP, it’s been around for ever, we know how it works, and as far as I can tell it’s fair.
Does it discriminate against small parties? Yes, such is FPTP, but players all know the drill and elections are competitive. It’s perfectly viable to flick between Tory led and Labour led governments.
Holyrood is a stitch-up, but as we see it’s backfired. It now acts to perpetuate SNP rule, and I’d like to see it reformed, but even so it allows for some movement, ie we see the Greens in government there now.
The Welsh proposal is a stitch-up on steroids.
99% of the time it is going to deliver a Lab/PC government, and all SDs will be determined by party bosses behind closed doors.
I can’t think of a system better designed to deliver stagnation and corruption. It’s like something the Chinese would dream up for Hong Kong.
But because people see “PR” and perhaps the male/female proposal they think “progressive”.
- Has Putin got an FPN yet?
- Has Starmer withdrawn from Karkiv?
- Is Boris Johnson still stuck in the toaster?
Personally I think they should never have been involved , this goes the same for Durham. This should have been dealt with by parliament .
And "players all know the drill" is an astonishingly positive take on FPTP.
But the list only element is not good.
At leastd in the local government election we hadin Scotland we voted for specific persons.
Foreign investment is down. Export performance has declined. The pound has lost value. The stock exchange has underperformed.
Capitalism views Brexit as a impairment to the country’s prospects. If you accept that, fine.
But many don’t and it’s not what was promised.
I know we got some stupid fines during covid, but mostly the plod seeing somebody bend the rules just told them so, it was when things were clearly organised events to break them e.g. pre-arrranged house parties or somebody opening their gym, etc that got the fines.
Let’s take your argument to its absurd form: Labour and PC have decided to abolish elections, having promised it in their manifestos.
Would that be “none of my business”?
Anyway, if I understand correctly, the manifestos promised a reform of the electoral system, not *this* reform.
He knows he's boxed himself in.
The people who voted for Brexit most enthusiastically are those most separated from the working world, because they're retired.
The people least keen on Brexit are those who have to make it work and young people who are a bit idealistic and probably most footloose. And they've now been handed this brilliant gift that, in many cases, they don't particularly want and is going to be hard work to look after. It's as if your maiden aunt has given you a pet gnu and expected you to be grateful. And there's not much possibility of returning it to the gnu shop.
I'm not going to predict how this ends, or when. But if the plan is that things will be rubbish for a bit but my children might see the benefit shortly before they retire... that's going to be a drag on British politics for decades.
My dad taught me not to make fun of other peoples' mistakes when I was just a Nippur.
A racist gnu, who shits on the carpet and tries to blame it on the Romanian housekeeper.
I’m about the most pro-devolution person on here.
But I don’t believe the Senedd should, for example, be able to re-impose capital punishment.
And I don’t believe it should be able to impose an anti-democratic system that is guaranteed to deliver corruption.
That gnu dung will be valuable and affordable fuel to keep our homes warm this winter.
Edit; of course there are plenty of reasons not to go for capital punishment. But at some point lower in the scale you would be interfering unduly.
Never look a gift baboon in the mouth. It’ll bite your face off.
Our being outside was also a spur to the EU to get their shit together. Having Brexit Britain jabbed up whilst the EU's citizens died created a political imperative to shift their arses.
If the Referendum had locked us into ever closer union, I strongly suspect the UK would have been closed down from helping Ukraine to the level we have. We would have been trapped into some EU-wide foot-dragging whilst Kyiv fell.
Plus - Nigel Farage is out of a job. His soap box taken away. Surely that counts for something?
There's also the problem of the law which stops Burnham from double jobbing whilst Mayor of Greater Manchester.
And the last 2 years have been atypical
Everyone else will be left to pick up the pieces.
There may be something in this. The two most enthusiastic Brexiters I know are far from the younger urbanites of part of my family - a retired rural couple essentially from the rural squirearchy on my mother's side - Barbours and a now extremely old Range Rover captures part of the general idea.
To say that their enthusiasm for Brexit is undimmed would be an understatement. They almost seem more fanatical about it than ever before.
It will be for Balls.
"Come back. To Wakefield. Your Party NEEDs you..."
While you're at it future scanning you can give me some betting tips too.
But that was in the newspaper I read on Saturday as I had to go and see some people about some stuff
2. Well done! Getting rid of Nigel Farage is a definite plus plus plus. Whether Brexit is worth it...
It’s been five years; pretty much nada.
Sometimes the betting markets are bonkers.
Is it too late to get your money back for this “newspaper”?
- “How well or badly do you think the government are doing at handling Britain's exit from the European Union?” (net badly)
18-24 -62
25-49 -36
50-64 -23
65+ -2
Scotland -63
London -38
North -26
Midlands & Wales -20
Rest of South -18
GB -26
(YouGov/The Times; Sample Size: 1707; Fieldwork: 5-6 May 2022)
Do vax actually reduce the chances of contracting it much (even asymptomatically)? Of course, there's a nontrivial amount of people who have it but without any symptoms. Mrs Anab had barely a sniffle – she would have been none the wiser were it not for her doing a test when I had Man-Covid.
The gamble is that there are potential benefits to flexibility that will come to outweigh the existing benefits of collaboration.
Said benefits - when and if they kick in - need to compensate for the near-term deadweight of Brexit on the economy.
@MacaesBruno
If there were any doubts left, the war in Ukraine proved yet again that the European Union is today the only source of political progress and change in Europe. The national states have become an obstacle to progress and perhaps even a maladaptation
https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1521827543149654017
Macron commenting on the quality of our vaccine ring any bells?
SKS pm 24-28 then Burnham takes over after returning in a by election in 26 seems not worth betting on or against to me.
You need to be sent back to the shop for a re-boot.
Please don’t tell that to the Clapham omnibus blokes in person. A punch in the mouth often offends.
Safety first, Streeting, Nandy, the Ginger Menace or boring old Reeves for the win in any vacancy
It’s been masked by the sheer infectious nature of omicron, but yes vaccines do stop infection, not just serious disease. What has been significant is that this protection wanes faster than the serious disease/death protection. Long Covid aside, that doesn’t matter much.
But yes, being vaccinated does confer some level of protection against infection. And increases the chance of being asymptomatic to boot.
It's telling that you and other Brexit supporters are struggling to find something about Brexit that has improved the day-to-day life of the average UK citizen. I'm not talking about Ukraine, gene editing or any of that stuff - just my everyday life, which I feel has got worse since 2016, not better. I was promised cheaper food, fewer immigrants etc. etc. But food is much more expensive and there's millions of "illegals crossing the Channel" (TM Mail, Farage). So I ask again - am I any better off? (And I'm not really willing to wait JRM's 50 years to find out).
Had Remain won I wouldn’t have supported an absolutist approach which ignored concerns of Leavers .