politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Scotland rejects independence next week it will be becau

The details from YouGov show how hard it will be for Yes to gain momentum and how effective the No strategy has been recently.

45% of voters now think that they will be personally worse off with independence and only 23% think they will be better off. Even amongst SNP voters only half of them think they will be better off.

On trust only 38% of voters trust Salmond but 58% don't. Thus there are voters at the moment who say they don't trust Salmond think that they will lose money with a Yes vote but are still planning to vote Yes.

The only area where the SNP is far ahead is their brand of nationalism which has won hearts. This explains why it is male led campaign. Women worry about food for the kids not appearing macho down the pub.

So the weekend brings the Orange Order match in Edinburgh and football. Could be a toxic mix but unlikely to sway many No voters who are mostly worried about money. You can see on the social media this creates a conflict for the Hearts and Rangers fans. You can be a vocal Celtic or Hibs Yes voter but need to be careful at Tynecastle or Ibrox. In the end it will mostly be a distraction but it is another battle the Yes campaign has to fight.

I listened to Ruth Davidson last night and thought she was good. She must be the first Tory for 2 decades who has almost as many Labour voters trusting her as distrusting her. Did not think Galloway was on top form but is still entertaining. Harvie was all over the place and Sturgeon is a solid performer. Overall I don't think many minds were changed.

David Sole, grand slam winning Scotland captain campaigning for NO

Remember Eck says he is not a member of Team Scotland. Arse.

Apologies if posted already but bbc says, ay http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-29171408 that Pistorius is guilty of culpable homicide.
Can’t see a sentence as yet.

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Plato, is Healey standing again in 2015?

He deserves to be slaughtered at the ballot box.

Some Kippers think his seat in Wentworth may be an even better prospect for the party than Rotherham itself. Caven Vines is the UKIP candidate:

http://www.ukiprotherham.com/candidates/

If you haven't seen today's Matt...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxUr6QmIAAAYPRg.jpg

The Yes Bully Boy charm offensive (and I do mean offensive)

@christopherhope: ICYMI here's my video of Labour MPs being called slaves and the N-word in Glasgow by Donald Dewar's statue yesterday: http://t.co/6veYo1n2Ij

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

isam said:

If a week ago people had been told the average of the polls now would be 52/48 no, people supporting the union would have been beside themselves with worry... Because it's been worse on one occasion they are cheering from the rafters. Peculiar

Never interrupt a PB daisy chain in full engagement, it can get messy.

Tipping point!

You're confusing a single bloom with a pasture of mutual gratification. Easy to do in the throes of passion I suppose.

Perhaps following devolution to England the answer is Confederation rather than full federalism. Make the members of the UK Parliament nominated members of the respective devolved assemblies in proportion to party makeup. PM has foreign policy, immigration and defence responsibilities for the whole UK (could also be oversight of budgets and spending at this level too), but the whole thing would be much looser and the UK parliament would only have to meet when it is summoned to deal with a matter affecting the whole union.

would cut down on the costs of an extra level of government and would hand autonomy to each of the members.

Totally inelegant, but best I can come up with.

For clarity - BP and Shell never threatened to pull out if it's a YES. Their CEOs merely confirmed the view that the N.Sea is not very prospective going forwards as all the easy to produce reserves have been developed already and that there will be an inevitable decline in production.

So it's not that they'll walk but that the jam bit of freedom n jam is actually vinegar.

rcs1000 said:

Socrates said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

Since 1955, in periods where Italy had no working government, they averaged 4.4% GDP growth, as opposed to 1.3% when they had a functioning coalition, and just 0.1% when they had a single governing party.

Basically, government turned out to be bad for economic growth.

Very different electoral system, leading to pork-barrelling coalitions which can't take difficult decisions. We have been extremely lucky in this parliament that we've had a coalition prepared to get on with addressing our problems, but it's naive to assume that the same luck will continue next time. Even if the arithmetic does add up, the politics may not.

Yeah, I know.

But it's still fun fact :-)

And I like the fact that when no decisions at all were being taken was the time when the economy did best...

However much I complain about our politicians, the politicians of large chunks of Europe make them look like saints. In places like France, Italy, Romania, Czechia etc the political class is almost like an extractive class, when corruption is the norm. That's why it's bloody insane to try to politically integrate with them. The rot will just spread.

It reminds me of the famous exchange between Mrs Thatcher and an Italian voter

"But surely you don't want to be ruled by Brussels" said Mrs. T
"It has to be better than being ruled by Rome" said the Italian voter, shrugging...

I'm sure you must have missed my post last night. Any update?

FPT 'rcs1000 said:

» show previous quotes
It'll be more like 20%; I'd be surprised if 'yes' makes it through 40% on the night.

Are you still offering odds on that?'

Theuniondivvie said:

rcs1000 said:

Socrates said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

Since 1955, in periods where Italy had no working government, they averaged 4.4% GDP growth, as opposed to 1.3% when they had a functioning coalition, and just 0.1% when they had a single governing party.

Basically, government turned out to be bad for economic growth.

Very different electoral system, leading to pork-barrelling coalitions which can't take difficult decisions. We have been extremely lucky in this parliament that we've had a coalition prepared to get on with addressing our problems, but it's naive to assume that the same luck will continue next time. Even if the arithmetic does add up, the politics may not.

Yeah, I know.

But it's still fun fact :-)

And I like the fact that when no decisions at all were being taken was the time when the economy did best...

However much I complain about our politicians, the politicians of large chunks of Europe make them look like saints. In places like France, Italy, Romania, Czechia etc the political class is almost like an extractive class, when corruption is the norm. That's why it's bloody insane to try to politically integrate with them. The rot will just spread.

It reminds me of the famous exchange between Mrs Thatcher and an Italian voter

"But surely you don't want to be ruled by Brussels" said Mrs. T
"It has to be better than being ruled by Rome" said the Italian voter, shrugging...

I'm sure you must have missed my post last night. Any update?

FPT 'rcs1000 said:

» show previous quotes
It'll be more like 20%; I'd be surprised if 'yes' makes it through 40% on the night.

Are you still offering odds on that?'

I've put money on at 9/1 very recently with Paddy's.
I'm not going to offer you odds that are different to the market's, obviously.

AndyJS said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Plato, is Healey standing again in 2015?

He deserves to be slaughtered at the ballot box.

Some Kippers think his seat in Wentworth may be an even better prospect for the party than Rotherham itself. Caven Vines is the UKIP candidate:

http://www.ukiprotherham.com/candidates/

That's an interesting seat - 8% for both UKIP and the BNP in 2010 suggests a very good starting platform for UKIP to build on. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wentworth_and_Dearne_(UK_Parliament_constituency))

Mr. JS, assuming the information posted about him is accurate, UKIP (or another party) must stand a good chance of giving him a kicking in the ballot box.

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

MikeK said:

VillanUK ‏@villanUK71 19m
@libertyIAB @DavidJo52951945 @Nigel_Farage He never hides his opinion,dosnt sit on the fence, you know his policies. Cant be said for others

Farage is on LBC this morning.

What can Kippers learn for the EU referendum from the Sindy referendum ?

I would have thought turning the poll into a cult of the glorious leader has been shown to fail.

Time for a new Kipper approach ?

You can see why Kippers are so afraid of a referendum, and doing all their best, to put Ed Miliband into Downing Street and stop a referendum happening.

Sometimes you can be very astute and at other times incredibly stupid. If after all this time you have still not got lost the 'divine right to rule' mindset that permeates certain sections of the Tory party then there really is no hope for you.

Ishmael_X said:

Scott_P said:

The Yes Bully Boy charm offensive (and I do mean offensive)

@christopherhope: ICYMI here's my video of Labour MPs being called slaves and the N-word in Glasgow by Donald Dewar's statue yesterday: http://t.co/6veYo1n2Ij

Ctrl-C, Ctrl-P.

Very rude of Donald Dewar's statue to use that kind of language.

Lol.
Perhaps if he could see the current crop of Labour day trippers he might get quite abusive.

Richard_Tyndall said:

As I have already said it would be difficult for the Scots to present a regime that was harsher and more ill considered than that perpetuated by successive UK governments over the last 2 decades.

The fact that it is better to operate in Norway than the UK at the moment surely says something about how bad the UK is managing the North Sea.

IIRC, Norway gives you 89% of your money back if you drill a dry hole. That's not such an unattractive regime...

rcs1000 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

rcs1000 said:

Socrates said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

Since 1955, in periods where Italy had no working government, they averaged 4.4% GDP growth, as opposed to 1.3% when they had a functioning coalition, and just 0.1% when they had a single governing party.

Basically, government turned out to be bad for economic growth.

Very different electoral system, leading to pork-barrelling coalitions which can't take difficult decisions. We have been extremely lucky in this parliament that we've had a coalition prepared to get on with addressing our problems, but it's naive to assume that the same luck will continue next time. Even if the arithmetic does add up, the politics may not.

Yeah, I know.

But it's still fun fact :-)

And I like the fact that when no decisions at all were being taken was the time when the economy did best...

However much I complain about our politicians, the politicians of large chunks of Europe make them look like saints. In places like France, Italy, Romania, Czechia etc the political class is almost like an extractive class, when corruption is the norm. That's why it's bloody insane to try to politically integrate with them. The rot will just spread.

It reminds me of the famous exchange between Mrs Thatcher and an Italian voter

"But surely you don't want to be ruled by Brussels" said Mrs. T
"It has to be better than being ruled by Rome" said the Italian voter, shrugging...

I'm sure you must have missed my post last night. Any update?

FPT 'rcs1000 said:

» show previous quotes
It'll be more like 20%; I'd be surprised if 'yes' makes it through 40% on the night.

Are you still offering odds on that?'

I've put money on at 9/1 very recently with Paddy's.
I'm not going to offer you odds that are different to the market's, obviously.

Obviously.

TGOHF said:

MikeK said:

VillanUK ‏@villanUK71 19m
@libertyIAB @DavidJo52951945 @Nigel_Farage He never hides his opinion,dosnt sit on the fence, you know his policies. Cant be said for others

Farage is on LBC this morning.

What can Kippers learn for the EU referendum from the Sindy referendum ?

That's you're sure to lose it, so make sure Miliband gets in?

Scott_P said:

@GuidoFawkes: RT @George_Osborne: I'm launching a competition today to design the new £1 coin. #yourpoundcoin http://t.co/5Y9Hx2XX0c

What odds rushing through the process by next Thursday, with the reverse side being a saltire and "Scotland Roolz" written round the edge?

Scott_P said:

The Yes Bully Boy charm offensive (and I do mean offensive)

@christopherhope: ICYMI here's my video of Labour MPs being called slaves and the N-word in Glasgow by Donald Dewar's statue yesterday: http://t.co/6veYo1n2Ij

Im worried about what will happen if its a narrow no. I believe its wishful thinking that all this ill feeling is going to end up being neatly packaged away and forgotten about.

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

MikeK said:

VillanUK ‏@villanUK71 19m
@libertyIAB @DavidJo52951945 @Nigel_Farage He never hides his opinion,dosnt sit on the fence, you know his policies. Cant be said for others

Farage is on LBC this morning.

What can Kippers learn for the EU referendum from the Sindy referendum ?

I would have thought turning the poll into a cult of the glorious leader has been shown to fail.

Time for a new Kipper approach ?

You can see why Kippers are so afraid of a referendum, and doing all their best, to put Ed Miliband into Downing Street and stop a referendum happening.

Sometimes you can be very astute and at other times incredibly stupid. If after all this time you have still not got lost the 'divine right to rule' mindset that permeates certain sections of the Tory party then there really is no hope for you.

30-40% of the voters reject the Conservatives and Labour. One can see why members of either party would accuse them of splitting the anti-Conservative/anti-Labour vote, but they'd do better trying to change their ways to win them over.

Jim Sillars: wreaking havoc in 1975, 1988 and 2014.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

MikeK said:

VillanUK ‏@villanUK71 19m
@libertyIAB @DavidJo52951945 @Nigel_Farage He never hides his opinion,dosnt sit on the fence, you know his policies. Cant be said for others

Farage is on LBC this morning.

What can Kippers learn for the EU referendum from the Sindy referendum ?

I would have thought turning the poll into a cult of the glorious leader has been shown to fail.

Time for a new Kipper approach ?

You can see why Kippers are so afraid of a referendum, and doing all their best, to put Ed Miliband into Downing Street and stop a referendum happening.

Sometimes you can be very astute and at other times incredibly stupid. If after all this time you have still not got lost the 'divine right to rule' mindset that permeates certain sections of the Tory party then there really is no hope for you.

1) No one/no party has a divine right to rule

2) I'm pointing out, Kippers are doing their very best to ensure there is no referendum any time soon on our membership of the EU.

The time isn't ripe? Anyway isn't it a little foolish to think that what Ukip voters want first and foremost is an EU referendum. They are appealing to discontent and anger at the way Britain is run. It remains a protest vote for many. Admittedly immigration is a touchstone issue for them.

Sean_F said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

MikeK said:

VillanUK ‏@villanUK71 19m
@libertyIAB @DavidJo52951945 @Nigel_Farage He never hides his opinion,dosnt sit on the fence, you know his policies. Cant be said for others

Farage is on LBC this morning.

What can Kippers learn for the EU referendum from the Sindy referendum ?

I would have thought turning the poll into a cult of the glorious leader has been shown to fail.

Time for a new Kipper approach ?

You can see why Kippers are so afraid of a referendum, and doing all their best, to put Ed Miliband into Downing Street and stop a referendum happening.

Sometimes you can be very astute and at other times incredibly stupid. If after all this time you have still not got lost the 'divine right to rule' mindset that permeates certain sections of the Tory party then there really is no hope for you.

30-40% of the voters reject the Conservatives and Labour. One can see why members of either party would accuse them of splitting the anti-Conservative/anti-Labour vote, but they'd do better trying to change their ways to win them over.

We've tried/we're trying.

Want a referendum on remaining in the EU?

Vote Tory in 2015 to get one in 2017.

UKIP have selected 25% more candidates than the LDs so far. Shows where the momentum is, as confirmed by almost every poll putting the former ahead of the latter.

Scott_P said:

@GroomB: BoE: Scotland would have to hold £34bn currency reserves to match Denmark’s ratio or £155bn to match Hong Kong’s. http://t.co/xX9uQFHyYu

Will they accept Tunnock's Tea Cakes as collateral?

We all know that Big Feck has £150 bn or so in his back pocket ready for the day after The Great Independence. It will materialise out of thin air with all the rest of the assertions. Dr Who is currently Scottish and will help out.

My conclusion is that the Straw Man invented by the Gnats is probably half true.

Scottish Men really are too stupid.

welshowl said:

Scotland's population was according to the 2011 census 5.295m. Any odds on a drop either absolute or relative to rUk in 2021?

This is all getting so shrill up there, and downright nasty I fear, and it's going to probably be pretty close meaning another round in 10 years? So I'm beginning to wonder that even if there's a No will some folk quietly sell up and leave thereby avoiding a future tartan People's Republic (ok I exaggerate a bit)?

My prediction is in the event of a no, unless there's constitutional change on an extreme scale we'd be looking at another vote within 30 years.

Sean_F said:

The agenda has moved on. Four years ago, UKIP were indeed a single-issue party. Now, as with the SNP, their supporters are rebelling against misgovernment at Westminster.

... by working to put back into power the party that was responsible for the misgovernment.

malcolmg said:

David Cameron in his bunker

www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsRzO18nM8A

Per that video, How has David Cameron's visit to Scotland made things worse?

Before Yes were ahead, afterwards No are ahead.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Guess who wrote this?

Ed Miliband and Gordon Brown haven't saved the Union. But they may have killed the Labour Party

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100286169/ed-miliband-and-gordon-brown-havent-saved-the-union-but-they-may-have-killed-the-labour-party/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Blistering.

As has been so often the case in UK history, a new constitutional settlement is made up on the back of an envelope during some kind of crisis.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sean_F said:

The agenda has moved on. Four years ago, UKIP were indeed a single-issue party. Now, as with the SNP, their supporters are rebelling against misgovernment at Westminster.

... by working to put back into power the party that was responsible for the misgovernment.

Both main parties are responsible for misgovernment.

If the Conservatives are worried about a split vote returning a Labour government, then they should offer PR. If they won't, then they have no right to complain.

Lennon said:

AndyJS said:

UKIP have selected 25% more candidates than the LDs so far. Shows where the momentum is, as confirmed by almost every poll putting the former ahead of the latter.

Do you think that there is a chance that the Lib Dems just don't contest all constituencies (excl NI)?

Very unlikely, I'd have thought. It would be an admission of defeat, and in any case they'll want to maximise the absolute number of votes so as to give themselves as much credibility as they can.

I agree with others on here that, no matter the outcome of the IndyRef, the SNP has successfully trashed the Scottish brand.

(which is a loss to Scotland and the rest of us).

Just on UKIP, what's the policy on English devolution?

malcolmg said:

David Cameron in his bunker
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsRzO18nM8A

As sad, old and unoriginal as The Proclaimers. Crap.

I can't believe it. I agree with Dan Hodges.

It is difficult to disagree with what Hodges says. England will never acccept more powers for Scotland without a freezout of Scottish MPs from English measures.

And when the arguing starts, Wales will be drawn into the argument too, because Welsh MPs can vote on English education and health, not content with destroying both in their own country,

Blair may have won without Scotland, but I'm not sure even he could win without Scotland AND Wales.

Lennon said:

AndyJS said:

UKIP have selected 25% more candidates than the LDs so far. Shows where the momentum is, as confirmed by almost every poll putting the former ahead of the latter.

Do you think that there is a chance that the Lib Dems just don't contest all constituencies (excl NI)?

I think they'll definitely contest all GB seats except maybe Bercow's. Prestige demands it, however unpretty the results.

Sean_F said:

Both main parties are responsible for misgovernment.

Seriously? When and how?

Sean_F said:

If the Conservatives are worried about a split vote returning a Labour government, then they should offer PR. If they won't, then they have no right to complain.

Eternal coalitions, the LibDems possibly permanently in power, governments stitched up in smoke-free rooms by buying off minor parties with bribes and concessions to single-issue vested interests, voters not having a clue what they are voting for.

PR is a fudge, the avoidance of choice. But choice has to be made.

Miss C, also worth mentioning women are more risk averse than men.

Mr. G, so if they say prices could fall it's gospel, and if they say prices could rise they've been nobbled by the evil machinations of a perfidious Englishman?

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

On topic the debate about which is the smarter sex is now over.

How's canvassing going in your neck of the woods, am I right in thinking a poll showing Yes ahead firmed up the no vote a bit?

Definitely. For too many people getting a no vote was someone else's problem and something of a foregone conclusion that they did not have to worry about. I have noticed no voters being much more assertive, keener to speak to express their concerns and more appreciative of the importance of voting than they were before.

I think the way that Yougov have covered this is a complete nonsense. No was never as far ahead as they were claiming. There has been nothing like the size of swing they claim to have detected (at best for yes they were getting slightly more than their share of the undecideds closing the gap marginally) and I seriously doubt that Yes were in fact ahead. They make a lot of headlines and distort the campaign with their nonsense but a poll with Yes ahead did No a favour.

The trouble is those 'dodgy' polls could well have set in motion a chain of events that will destroy the UK in the medium term. As has been said devomax is asking for a constitutional quagmire. The most obvious solution (not proposed so far) would be a reduction in the number of Scottish MPs at Westminster. This is the case with NI.

That could be the devomax choice offered to Scottish voters. All other solutions look horrendous. I can't believe any unionists believe in an English parliament which would surely be the end of the UK shortly after.