I WANT ONE! Chows are huge as grown-ups. When I was a kid, a neighbour had a white one the size of a Shetland pony. She taught it to use a Pelican Crossing!
The details from YouGov show how hard it will be for Yes to gain momentum and how effective the No strategy has been recently.
45% of voters now think that they will be personally worse off with independence and only 23% think they will be better off. Even amongst SNP voters only half of them think they will be better off.
On trust only 38% of voters trust Salmond but 58% don't. Thus there are voters at the moment who say they don't trust Salmond think that they will lose money with a Yes vote but are still planning to vote Yes.
The only area where the SNP is far ahead is their brand of nationalism which has won hearts. This explains why it is male led campaign. Women worry about food for the kids not appearing macho down the pub.
So the weekend brings the Orange Order match in Edinburgh and football. Could be a toxic mix but unlikely to sway many No voters who are mostly worried about money. You can see on the social media this creates a conflict for the Hearts and Rangers fans. You can be a vocal Celtic or Hibs Yes voter but need to be careful at Tynecastle or Ibrox. In the end it will mostly be a distraction but it is another battle the Yes campaign has to fight.
I listened to Ruth Davidson last night and thought she was good. She must be the first Tory for 2 decades who has almost as many Labour voters trusting her as distrusting her. Did not think Galloway was on top form but is still entertaining. Harvie was all over the place and Sturgeon is a solid performer. Overall I don't think many minds were changed.
The most startling part for Scotland about the vindictiveness and general levels of economic stupidity being shown by the SNP is that when the voters reject independence, then we return to the status quo ante - of these same belligerent people still being in control of the levers of Scottish power.
Any Board facing a strategic decision on whether to be based in Scotland or England (or frankly, anywhere else in the known Universe) will be taking note.
@AlanRoden: Jim Sillars: "When we get a Yes majority, we will use that power for a day of reckoning with BP and the banks." #indyref
Words fail me
ROFL
which banks ? There won't be any.
As for BP, make life too difficult and they'll simply shut down operations and spend their time and money on exploration and production elsewhere. If there's no profit in it why bother.
Is Sillars going to take malcolm out in a dinghy, to man the platforms himself?
The BP example is quite the most ridiculous of companies threatening to 'pull out' in the event of a Yes. BP have already pulled much of their operations out of the UK entirely. Their Head Office is already in London not Aberdeen and the only operations they have in Scotland are those necessary for running their North Sea assets.
Whether or not they pull out of North Sea operations will have nothing whatsoever to do with whether or not Scotland in independent. It will depend entirely on he balance of costs to profits (including tax regime) and the Oil price.
As I have mentioned before, the UK government have grossly mismanaged the tax regime for UK oil exploration and have caused a big drop in exploration and development since 2010. However incompetent the Scottish government were it would actually be difficult for them to run the system in a more damaging manner than the current and previous UK governments.
BP was originally referred to in the Sillar's posts below.
'Whether or not they pull out of North Sea operations will have nothing whatsoever to do with whether or not Scotland in independent.'
It's never been suggested that they would. The posts relate to how they might theoretically respond to Big Jim's 'day of reckoning' were it to be too harsh to continue profitable operations.
Mr. Ace, I only saw a tiny bit of the debate, but my favourite point was a young gentleman in the audience who demanded of the chap for Yes how he could guarantee X policy with independence, as people who believed in X could be voted out democratically and replaced with a party that didn't. Rather basic but very sensible point.
The Yes Bully Boy charm offensive (and I do mean offensive)
@christopherhope: ICYMI here's my video of Labour MPs being called slaves and the N-word in Glasgow by Donald Dewar's statue yesterday: http://t.co/6veYo1n2Ij
What can Kippers learn for the EU referendum from the Sindy referendum ?
I would have thought turning the poll into a cult of the glorious leader has been shown to fail.
Time for a new Kipper approach ?
You can see why Kippers are so afraid of a referendum, and doing all their best, to put Ed Miliband into Downing Street and stop a referendum happening.
If a week ago people had been told the average of the polls now would be 52/48 no, people supporting the union would have been beside themselves with worry... Because it's been worse on one occasion they are cheering from the rafters. Peculiar
Never interrupt a PB daisy chain in full engagement, it can get messy.
Tipping point!
You're confusing a single bloom with a pasture of mutual gratification. Easy to do in the throes of passion I suppose.
The Yes Bully Boy charm offensive (and I do mean offensive)
@christopherhope: ICYMI here's my video of Labour MPs being called slaves and the N-word in Glasgow by Donald Dewar's statue yesterday: http://t.co/6veYo1n2Ij
Perhaps following devolution to England the answer is Confederation rather than full federalism. Make the members of the UK Parliament nominated members of the respective devolved assemblies in proportion to party makeup. PM has foreign policy, immigration and defence responsibilities for the whole UK (could also be oversight of budgets and spending at this level too), but the whole thing would be much looser and the UK parliament would only have to meet when it is summoned to deal with a matter affecting the whole union.
would cut down on the costs of an extra level of government and would hand autonomy to each of the members.
For clarity - BP and Shell never threatened to pull out if it's a YES. Their CEOs merely confirmed the view that the N.Sea is not very prospective going forwards as all the easy to produce reserves have been developed already and that there will be an inevitable decline in production.
So it's not that they'll walk but that the jam bit of freedom n jam is actually vinegar.
What can Kippers learn for the EU referendum from the Sindy referendum ?
I would have thought turning the poll into a cult of the glorious leader has been shown to fail.
Time for a new Kipper approach ?
There is no cult of the glorious leader in UKIP. Bringing Carswell on board shows that Farage is not ego driven and the UKIP welcome for Carswell shows that there is no leader worship in the party.
Since 1955, in periods where Italy had no working government, they averaged 4.4% GDP growth, as opposed to 1.3% when they had a functioning coalition, and just 0.1% when they had a single governing party.
Basically, government turned out to be bad for economic growth.
Very different electoral system, leading to pork-barrelling coalitions which can't take difficult decisions. We have been extremely lucky in this parliament that we've had a coalition prepared to get on with addressing our problems, but it's naive to assume that the same luck will continue next time. Even if the arithmetic does add up, the politics may not.
Yeah, I know.
But it's still fun fact :-)
And I like the fact that when no decisions at all were being taken was the time when the economy did best...
However much I complain about our politicians, the politicians of large chunks of Europe make them look like saints. In places like France, Italy, Romania, Czechia etc the political class is almost like an extractive class, when corruption is the norm. That's why it's bloody insane to try to politically integrate with them. The rot will just spread.
It reminds me of the famous exchange between Mrs Thatcher and an Italian voter
"But surely you don't want to be ruled by Brussels" said Mrs. T "It has to be better than being ruled by Rome" said the Italian voter, shrugging...
I'm sure you must have missed my post last night. Any update?
FPT 'rcs1000 said:
» show previous quotes It'll be more like 20%; I'd be surprised if 'yes' makes it through 40% on the night.
On open primaries - I can see the idea, but if you give the opportunity to someone who comes from nowhere, you are open to possible sabotage. I can understand why a Tory association would want to feel sure they were getting a Tory candidate, the same with Labour. Is it asking too much for people to have done a bit for the party beforehand?
I quite like Sarah Wollaston, but is she a true Tory?
Since 1955, in periods where Italy had no working government, they averaged 4.4% GDP growth, as opposed to 1.3% when they had a functioning coalition, and just 0.1% when they had a single governing party.
Basically, government turned out to be bad for economic growth.
Very different electoral system, leading to pork-barrelling coalitions which can't take difficult decisions. We have been extremely lucky in this parliament that we've had a coalition prepared to get on with addressing our problems, but it's naive to assume that the same luck will continue next time. Even if the arithmetic does add up, the politics may not.
Yeah, I know.
But it's still fun fact :-)
And I like the fact that when no decisions at all were being taken was the time when the economy did best...
However much I complain about our politicians, the politicians of large chunks of Europe make them look like saints. In places like France, Italy, Romania, Czechia etc the political class is almost like an extractive class, when corruption is the norm. That's why it's bloody insane to try to politically integrate with them. The rot will just spread.
It reminds me of the famous exchange between Mrs Thatcher and an Italian voter
"But surely you don't want to be ruled by Brussels" said Mrs. T "It has to be better than being ruled by Rome" said the Italian voter, shrugging...
I'm sure you must have missed my post last night. Any update?
FPT 'rcs1000 said:
» show previous quotes It'll be more like 20%; I'd be surprised if 'yes' makes it through 40% on the night.
Are you still offering odds on that?'
I've put money on at 9/1 very recently with Paddy's. I'm not going to offer you odds that are different to the market's, obviously.
For clarity - BP and Shell never threatened to pull out if it's a YES. Their CEOs merely confirmed the view that the N.Sea is not very prospective going forwards as all the easy to produce reserves have been developed already and that there will be an inevitable decline in production.
So it's not that they'll walk but that the jam bit of freedom n jam is actually vinegar.
According to the journalist, the Sillar's quote is in a press release, and he threatens to nationalise BP
The Yes Bully Boy charm offensive (and I do mean offensive)
@christopherhope: ICYMI here's my video of Labour MPs being called slaves and the N-word in Glasgow by Donald Dewar's statue yesterday: http://t.co/6veYo1n2Ij
Ctrl-C, Ctrl-P.
Very rude of Donald Dewar's statue to use that kind of language.
Mr. JS, assuming the information posted about him is accurate, UKIP (or another party) must stand a good chance of giving him a kicking in the ballot box.
What can Kippers learn for the EU referendum from the Sindy referendum ?
I would have thought turning the poll into a cult of the glorious leader has been shown to fail.
Time for a new Kipper approach ?
You can see why Kippers are so afraid of a referendum, and doing all their best, to put Ed Miliband into Downing Street and stop a referendum happening.
Sometimes you can be very astute and at other times incredibly stupid. If after all this time you have still not got lost the 'divine right to rule' mindset that permeates certain sections of the Tory party then there really is no hope for you.
The Yes Bully Boy charm offensive (and I do mean offensive)
@christopherhope: ICYMI here's my video of Labour MPs being called slaves and the N-word in Glasgow by Donald Dewar's statue yesterday: http://t.co/6veYo1n2Ij
Ctrl-C, Ctrl-P.
Very rude of Donald Dewar's statue to use that kind of language.
Lol. Perhaps if he could see the current crop of Labour day trippers he might get quite abusive.
@AlanRoden: Jim Sillars: "When we get a Yes majority, we will use that power for a day of reckoning with BP and the banks." #indyref
Words fail me
ROFL
which banks ? There won't be any.
As for BP, make life too difficult and they'll simply shut down operations and spend their time and money on exploration and production elsewhere. If there's no profit in it why bother.
Is Sillars going to take malcolm out in a dinghy, to man the platforms himself?
The BP example is quite the most ridiculous of companies threatening to 'pull out' in the event of a Yes. BP have already pulled much of their operations out of the UK entirely. Their Head Office is already in London not Aberdeen and the only operations they have in Scotland are those necessary for running their North Sea assets.
Whether or not they pull out of North Sea operations will have nothing whatsoever to do with whether or not Scotland in independent. It will depend entirely on he balance of costs to profits (including tax regime) and the Oil price.
As I have mentioned before, the UK government have grossly mismanaged the tax regime for UK oil exploration and have caused a big drop in exploration and development since 2010. However incompetent the Scottish government were it would actually be difficult for them to run the system in a more damaging manner than the current and previous UK governments.
BP was originally referred to in the Sillar's posts below.
'Whether or not they pull out of North Sea operations will have nothing whatsoever to do with whether or not Scotland in independent.'
It's never been suggested that they would. The posts relate to how they might theoretically respond to Big Jim's 'day of reckoning' were it to be too harsh to continue profitable operations.
As I have already said it would be difficult for the Scots to present a regime that was harsher and more ill considered than that perpetuated by successive UK governments over the last 2 decades.
The fact that it is better to operate in Norway than the UK at the moment surely says something about how bad the UK is managing the North Sea.
What can Kippers learn for the EU referendum from the Sindy referendum ?
I would have thought turning the poll into a cult of the glorious leader has been shown to fail.
Time for a new Kipper approach ?
You can see why Kippers are so afraid of a referendum, and doing all their best, to put Ed Miliband into Downing Street and stop a referendum happening.
Sometimes you can be very astute and at other times incredibly stupid. If after all this time you have still not got lost the 'divine right to rule' mindset that permeates certain sections of the Tory party then there really is no hope for you.
1) No one/no party has a divine right to rule
2) I'm pointing out, Kippers are doing their very best to ensure there is no referendum any time soon on our membership of the EU.
What can Kippers learn for the EU referendum from the Sindy referendum ?
I would have thought turning the poll into a cult of the glorious leader has been shown to fail.
Time for a new Kipper approach ?
You can see why Kippers are so afraid of a referendum, and doing all their best, to put Ed Miliband into Downing Street and stop a referendum happening.
Sometimes you can be very astute and at other times incredibly stupid. If after all this time you have still not got lost the 'divine right to rule' mindset that permeates certain sections of the Tory party then there really is no hope for you.
Answers Kipper discussion with "Tories" - the failed tactics of the SNP...
On open primaries - I can see the idea, but if you give the opportunity to someone who comes from nowhere, you are open to possible sabotage. I can understand why a Tory association would want to feel sure they were getting a Tory candidate, the same with Labour. Is it asking too much for people to have done a bit for the party beforehand?
I quite like Sarah Wollaston, but is she a true Tory?
As I have already said it would be difficult for the Scots to present a regime that was harsher and more ill considered than that perpetuated by successive UK governments over the last 2 decades.
The fact that it is better to operate in Norway than the UK at the moment surely says something about how bad the UK is managing the North Sea.
IIRC, Norway gives you 89% of your money back if you drill a dry hole. That's not such an unattractive regime...
The remarkable thing is how often uninformed opinion can hold sway and how often bad decisions are made because so many around the table are too weak or stupid to think for themselves.
Since 1955, in periods where Italy had no working government, they averaged 4.4% GDP growth, as opposed to 1.3% when they had a functioning coalition, and just 0.1% when they had a single governing party.
Basically, government turned out to be bad for economic growth.
Very different electoral system, leading to pork-barrelling coalitions which can't take difficult decisions. We have been extremely lucky in this parliament that we've had a coalition prepared to get on with addressing our problems, but it's naive to assume that the same luck will continue next time. Even if the arithmetic does add up, the politics may not.
Yeah, I know.
But it's still fun fact :-)
And I like the fact that when no decisions at all were being taken was the time when the economy did best...
However much I complain about our politicians, the politicians of large chunks of Europe make them look like saints. In places like France, Italy, Romania, Czechia etc the political class is almost like an extractive class, when corruption is the norm. That's why it's bloody insane to try to politically integrate with them. The rot will just spread.
It reminds me of the famous exchange between Mrs Thatcher and an Italian voter
"But surely you don't want to be ruled by Brussels" said Mrs. T "It has to be better than being ruled by Rome" said the Italian voter, shrugging...
I'm sure you must have missed my post last night. Any update?
FPT 'rcs1000 said:
» show previous quotes It'll be more like 20%; I'd be surprised if 'yes' makes it through 40% on the night.
Are you still offering odds on that?'
I've put money on at 9/1 very recently with Paddy's. I'm not going to offer you odds that are different to the market's, obviously.
If a week ago people had been told the average of the polls now would be 52/48 no, people supporting the union would have been beside themselves with worry... Because it's been worse on one occasion they are cheering from the rafters. Peculiar
The bi-polar momentum doesn't exist/No vote is guaranteed as we have momentum is a bit strange as well.
The Yes Bully Boy charm offensive (and I do mean offensive)
@christopherhope: ICYMI here's my video of Labour MPs being called slaves and the N-word in Glasgow by Donald Dewar's statue yesterday: http://t.co/6veYo1n2Ij
Im worried about what will happen if its a narrow no. I believe its wishful thinking that all this ill feeling is going to end up being neatly packaged away and forgotten about.
What can Kippers learn for the EU referendum from the Sindy referendum ?
I would have thought turning the poll into a cult of the glorious leader has been shown to fail.
Time for a new Kipper approach ?
You can see why Kippers are so afraid of a referendum, and doing all their best, to put Ed Miliband into Downing Street and stop a referendum happening.
Sometimes you can be very astute and at other times incredibly stupid. If after all this time you have still not got lost the 'divine right to rule' mindset that permeates certain sections of the Tory party then there really is no hope for you.
30-40% of the voters reject the Conservatives and Labour. One can see why members of either party would accuse them of splitting the anti-Conservative/anti-Labour vote, but they'd do better trying to change their ways to win them over.
The 2014 image should really show it in bits whilst lying on a bed of other people's money.
Yes, the Flying Scotsman is indeed a benefit junkie!
(For theose who are not train obsessed, the Flying Scotsman locomotive was purchased for the nation in 2004, and a remonstration started in 2006 was supposed to take only a couple of years. It still has not moved a wheel, and the costs are massively over budget).
What can Kippers learn for the EU referendum from the Sindy referendum ?
I would have thought turning the poll into a cult of the glorious leader has been shown to fail.
Time for a new Kipper approach ?
You can see why Kippers are so afraid of a referendum, and doing all their best, to put Ed Miliband into Downing Street and stop a referendum happening.
Sometimes you can be very astute and at other times incredibly stupid. If after all this time you have still not got lost the 'divine right to rule' mindset that permeates certain sections of the Tory party then there really is no hope for you.
1) No one/no party has a divine right to rule
2) I'm pointing out, Kippers are doing their very best to ensure there is no referendum any time soon on our membership of the EU.
The time isn't ripe? Anyway isn't it a little foolish to think that what Ukip voters want first and foremost is an EU referendum. They are appealing to discontent and anger at the way Britain is run. It remains a protest vote for many. Admittedly immigration is a touchstone issue for them.
Scotland's population was according to the 2011 census 5.295m. Any odds on a drop either absolute or relative to rUk in 2021?
This is all getting so shrill up there, and downright nasty I fear, and it's going to probably be pretty close meaning another round in 10 years? So I'm beginning to wonder that even if there's a No will some folk quietly sell up and leave thereby avoiding a future tartan People's Republic (ok I exaggerate a bit)?
What can Kippers learn for the EU referendum from the Sindy referendum ?
I would have thought turning the poll into a cult of the glorious leader has been shown to fail.
Time for a new Kipper approach ?
You can see why Kippers are so afraid of a referendum, and doing all their best, to put Ed Miliband into Downing Street and stop a referendum happening.
Sometimes you can be very astute and at other times incredibly stupid. If after all this time you have still not got lost the 'divine right to rule' mindset that permeates certain sections of the Tory party then there really is no hope for you.
30-40% of the voters reject the Conservatives and Labour. One can see why members of either party would accuse them of splitting the anti-Conservative/anti-Labour vote, but they'd do better trying to change their ways to win them over.
UKIP have selected 25% more candidates than the LDs so far. Shows where the momentum is, as confirmed by almost every poll putting the former ahead of the latter.
@GroomB: BoE: Scotland would have to hold £34bn currency reserves to match Denmark’s ratio or £155bn to match Hong Kong’s. http://t.co/xX9uQFHyYu
Will they accept Tunnock's Tea Cakes as collateral?
We all know that Big Feck has £150 bn or so in his back pocket ready for the day after The Great Independence. It will materialise out of thin air with all the rest of the assertions. Dr Who is currently Scottish and will help out.
My conclusion is that the Straw Man invented by the Gnats is probably half true.
What can Kippers learn for the EU referendum from the Sindy referendum ?
I would have thought turning the poll into a cult of the glorious leader has been shown to fail.
Time for a new Kipper approach ?
You can see why Kippers are so afraid of a referendum, and doing all their best, to put Ed Miliband into Downing Street and stop a referendum happening.
Sometimes you can be very astute and at other times incredibly stupid. If after all this time you have still not got lost the 'divine right to rule' mindset that permeates certain sections of the Tory party then there really is no hope for you.
30-40% of the voters reject the Conservatives and Labour. One can see why members of either party would accuse them of splitting the anti-Conservative/anti-Labour vote, but they'd do better trying to change their ways to win them over.
We've tried/we're trying.
Want a referendum on remaining in the EU?
Vote Tory in 2015 to get one in 2017.
The agenda has moved on. Four years ago, UKIP were indeed a single-issue party. Now, as with the SNP, their supporters are rebelling against misgovernment at Westminster.
Scotland's population was according to the 2011 census 5.295m. Any odds on a drop either absolute or relative to rUk in 2021?
This is all getting so shrill up there, and downright nasty I fear, and it's going to probably be pretty close meaning another round in 10 years? So I'm beginning to wonder that even if there's a No will some folk quietly sell up and leave thereby avoiding a future tartan People's Republic (ok I exaggerate a bit)?
My prediction is in the event of a no, unless there's constitutional change on an extreme scale we'd be looking at another vote within 30 years.
The Yes Bully Boy charm offensive (and I do mean offensive)
@christopherhope: ICYMI here's my video of Labour MPs being called slaves and the N-word in Glasgow by Donald Dewar's statue yesterday: http://t.co/6veYo1n2Ij
The SNP skinhead's offensive mimicking of a black American slave was self-defeating since the cliche is Yes suh massah. Yes suh massah Rupert.
What can Kippers learn for the EU referendum from the Sindy referendum ?
I would have thought turning the poll into a cult of the glorious leader has been shown to fail.
Time for a new Kipper approach ?
You can see why Kippers are so afraid of a referendum, and doing all their best, to put Ed Miliband into Downing Street and stop a referendum happening.
Sometimes you can be very astute and at other times incredibly stupid. If after all this time you have still not got lost the 'divine right to rule' mindset that permeates certain sections of the Tory party then there really is no hope for you.
30-40% of the voters reject the Conservatives and Labour. One can see why members of either party would accuse them of splitting the anti-Conservative/anti-Labour vote, but they'd do better trying to change their ways to win them over.
We've tried/we're trying.
Want a referendum on remaining in the EU?
Vote Tory in 2015 to get one in 2017.
The agenda has moved on. Four years ago, UKIP were indeed a single-issue party. Now, as with the SNP, their supporters are rebelling against misgovernment at Westminster.
I guess in 4 years time that might not be so important either then ?
Sounds like they are making it up as they go along..
The Yes Bully Boy charm offensive (and I do mean offensive)
@christopherhope: ICYMI here's my video of Labour MPs being called slaves and the N-word in Glasgow by Donald Dewar's statue yesterday: http://t.co/6veYo1n2Ij
The SNP skinhead's offensive mimicking of a black American slave was self-defeating since the cliche is Yes suh massah. Yes suh massah Rupert.
The labour can't with without Scotland isn't true. They can. Blair did it many times.
However, can they do it with a 35% strategy...ie one which is left wing enough to win them votes (with Scotland), or will they only be able to make it work with a new labour-ish one. With Devo-Max, then Scotland is effectively off the table for labour in Westminster on English matters.
The agenda has moved on. Four years ago, UKIP were indeed a single-issue party. Now, as with the SNP, their supporters are rebelling against misgovernment at Westminster.
... by working to put back into power the party that was responsible for the misgovernment.
I can't believe it. I agree with Dan Hodges. I would stop short of saying it will destroy Labour though. Dan is allowing his own personal fantasies free rein there.
I can't understand why the Yes campaign isn't tearing all this devomax stuff apart. It's going to cause all kind of problems. It's daft to think it will all be sorted quickly because Gordon Brown says so.
On topic the debate about which is the smarter sex is now over.
How's canvassing going in your neck of the woods, am I right in thinking a poll showing Yes ahead firmed up the no vote a bit?
Definitely. For too many people getting a no vote was someone else's problem and something of a foregone conclusion that they did not have to worry about. I have noticed no voters being much more assertive, keener to speak to express their concerns and more appreciative of the importance of voting than they were before.
I think the way that Yougov have covered this is a complete nonsense. No was never as far ahead as they were claiming. There has been nothing like the size of swing they claim to have detected (at best for yes they were getting slightly more than their share of the undecideds closing the gap marginally) and I seriously doubt that Yes were in fact ahead. They make a lot of headlines and distort the campaign with their nonsense but a poll with Yes ahead did No a favour.
UKIP have selected 25% more candidates than the LDs so far. Shows where the momentum is, as confirmed by almost every poll putting the former ahead of the latter.
Do you think that there is a chance that the Lib Dems just don't contest all constituencies (excl NI)?
The labour can't with without Scotland isn't true. They can. Blair did it many times.
However, can they do it with a 35% strategy...ie one which is left wing enough to win them votes (with Scotland), or will they only be able to make it work with a new labour-ish one. With Devo-Max, then Scotland is effectively off the table for labour in Westminster on English matters.
The agenda has moved on. Four years ago, UKIP were indeed a single-issue party. Now, as with the SNP, their supporters are rebelling against misgovernment at Westminster.
... by working to put back into power the party that was responsible for the misgovernment.
Both main parties are responsible for misgovernment.
If the Conservatives are worried about a split vote returning a Labour government, then they should offer PR. If they won't, then they have no right to complain.
UKIP have selected 25% more candidates than the LDs so far. Shows where the momentum is, as confirmed by almost every poll putting the former ahead of the latter.
Do you think that there is a chance that the Lib Dems just don't contest all constituencies (excl NI)?
Very unlikely, I'd have thought. It would be an admission of defeat, and in any case they'll want to maximise the absolute number of votes so as to give themselves as much credibility as they can.
Scotland's population was according to the 2011 census 5.295m. Any odds on a drop either absolute or relative to rUk in 2021?
This is all getting so shrill up there, and downright nasty I fear, and it's going to probably be pretty close meaning another round in 10 years? So I'm beginning to wonder that even if there's a No will some folk quietly sell up and leave thereby avoiding a future tartan People's Republic (ok I exaggerate a bit)?
My prediction is in the event of a no, unless there's constitutional change on an extreme scale we'd be looking at another vote within 30 years.
Not necessarily IMHO. The passion for 'Yes' may well fade quite quickly. In another 10 years it will be clearer what the real story about North Sea oil is.
I remember a very funny column Dan wrote about being embarrassed by your relatives, and challenging anyone to top his mother appearing naked on the telly when you're a teenager... and all your mates saw it.
It is difficult to disagree with what Hodges says. England will never acccept more powers for Scotland without a freezout of Scottish MPs from English measures.
And when the arguing starts, Wales will be drawn into the argument too, because Welsh MPs can vote on English education and health, not content with destroying both in their own country,
Blair may have won without Scotland, but I'm not sure even he could win without Scotland AND Wales.
UKIP have selected 25% more candidates than the LDs so far. Shows where the momentum is, as confirmed by almost every poll putting the former ahead of the latter.
Do you think that there is a chance that the Lib Dems just don't contest all constituencies (excl NI)?
I think they'll definitely contest all GB seats except maybe Bercow's. Prestige demands it, however unpretty the results.
Scotland's population was according to the 2011 census 5.295m. Any odds on a drop either absolute or relative to rUk in 2021?
This is all getting so shrill up there, and downright nasty I fear, and it's going to probably be pretty close meaning another round in 10 years? So I'm beginning to wonder that even if there's a No will some folk quietly sell up and leave thereby avoiding a future tartan People's Republic (ok I exaggerate a bit)?
My prediction is in the event of a no, unless there's constitutional change on an extreme scale we'd be looking at another vote within 30 years.
Not necessarily IMHO. The passion for 'Yes' may well fade quite quickly. In another 10 years it will be clearer what the real story about North Sea oil is.
The North Sea oil story isn't about the volume of production it's about the world price of oil, since the second peak oil is about price not volume.
In June Brent crude was at $115 a barrel, yesterday it hit $ 98.
Women get very good at detecting lies because men lie to women all the time. It is called "courting".
;-)
A bit more seriously, we tend to end up at the sharp end of political decisions. It is still often women who deal with schools and teachers, women who tend to be carers and women who use the health service more both for themselves and the children. We also get to see food inflation first hand as it tends to be us doing the shopping. All that breeds a certain cynicism.
If the Conservatives are worried about a split vote returning a Labour government, then they should offer PR. If they won't, then they have no right to complain.
Eternal coalitions, the LibDems possibly permanently in power, governments stitched up in smoke-free rooms by buying off minor parties with bribes and concessions to single-issue vested interests, voters not having a clue what they are voting for.
PR is a fudge, the avoidance of choice. But choice has to be made.
Comical Ally will create some fantastical Brigadoon criteria to show how he *really* won. And we'll get thousands of posts on here from cybernats claiming foul. Just remember what the Yes2AV squad were like when they lost... that was painful and embarrassing cry-babying.
Per that video, How has David Cameron's visit to Scotland made things worse?
Before Yes were ahead, afterwards No are ahead.
The SNP/Cybernats are quickly diverging from reality...
It's quite possible that Salmond will claim a majority irrespective of a No having more votes.
Expect dissection of the figures - "if you take out English born voters..... ", "if you take out foreigners....", "if you take out old people who wont be alive in 20 years......"
Ha Ha Ha , ASDA and Morrison's now saying prices could fall in an independent Scotland. Dave down to his last few arse licking mates from Sainsburys and M&S now.
Mr. G, so if they say prices could fall it's gospel, and if they say prices could rise they've been nobbled by the evil machinations of a perfidious Englishman?
FYI The JustGiving page for the Manchester Dogs Home has topped £500k since last night. I hope the sadistic little blighter has the book thrown at him.
This blog, from Robert Hazell at Constitution Unit, is well worth a read and wider circulation:
He doesn't see negotiations being completed until Oct 2017, noting that when Slovakia departed from Czech, "it required 30 Treaties and some 2000 legal agreements to give effect to the separation".
He also questions whether leading Scottish MPs, such as Wee Dougie, could be involved as part of the UK team.
On topic the debate about which is the smarter sex is now over.
How's canvassing going in your neck of the woods, am I right in thinking a poll showing Yes ahead firmed up the no vote a bit?
Definitely. For too many people getting a no vote was someone else's problem and something of a foregone conclusion that they did not have to worry about. I have noticed no voters being much more assertive, keener to speak to express their concerns and more appreciative of the importance of voting than they were before.
I think the way that Yougov have covered this is a complete nonsense. No was never as far ahead as they were claiming. There has been nothing like the size of swing they claim to have detected (at best for yes they were getting slightly more than their share of the undecideds closing the gap marginally) and I seriously doubt that Yes were in fact ahead. They make a lot of headlines and distort the campaign with their nonsense but a poll with Yes ahead did No a favour.
The trouble is those 'dodgy' polls could well have set in motion a chain of events that will destroy the UK in the medium term. As has been said devomax is asking for a constitutional quagmire. The most obvious solution (not proposed so far) would be a reduction in the number of Scottish MPs at Westminster. This is the case with NI.
That could be the devomax choice offered to Scottish voters. All other solutions look horrendous. I can't believe any unionists believe in an English parliament which would surely be the end of the UK shortly after.
Comments
45% of voters now think that they will be personally worse off with independence and only 23% think they will be better off. Even amongst SNP voters only half of them think they will be better off.
On trust only 38% of voters trust Salmond but 58% don't. Thus there are voters at the moment who say they don't trust Salmond think that they will lose money with a Yes vote but are still planning to vote Yes.
The only area where the SNP is far ahead is their brand of nationalism which has won hearts. This explains why it is male led campaign. Women worry about food for the kids not appearing macho down the pub.
So the weekend brings the Orange Order match in Edinburgh and football. Could be a toxic mix but unlikely to sway many No voters who are mostly worried about money. You can see on the social media this creates a conflict for the Hearts and Rangers fans. You can be a vocal Celtic or Hibs Yes voter but need to be careful at Tynecastle or Ibrox. In the end it will mostly be a distraction but it is another battle the Yes campaign has to fight.
I listened to Ruth Davidson last night and thought she was good. She must be the first Tory for 2 decades who has almost as many Labour voters trusting her as distrusting her. Did not think Galloway was on top form but is still entertaining. Harvie was all over the place and Sturgeon is a solid performer. Overall I don't think many minds were changed.
Remember Eck says he is not a member of Team Scotland. Arse.
'Whether or not they pull out of North Sea operations will have nothing whatsoever to do with whether or not Scotland in independent.'
It's never been suggested that they would. The posts relate to how they might theoretically respond to Big Jim's 'day of reckoning' were it to be too harsh to continue profitable operations.
Can’t see a sentence as yet.
http://www.ukiprotherham.com/candidates/
I would have thought turning the poll into a cult of the glorious leader has been shown to fail.
Time for a new Kipper approach ?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxUr6QmIAAAYPRg.jpg
Obama ties himself in Knots.
@christopherhope: ICYMI here's my video of Labour MPs being called slaves and the N-word in Glasgow by Donald Dewar's statue yesterday: http://t.co/6veYo1n2Ij
EICIPM
would cut down on the costs of an extra level of government and would hand autonomy to each of the members.
Totally inelegant, but best I can come up with.
450 530 136 170
Unweighted to weighted. C2s seem to be under-represented but that doesn't appear to be a bad subgroup for UKIP at all...
UKIP over 300 respondents, if there is going to be a surprise on GE night I reckon it'll be UKIP upsides.
Adjournment for sentencing surely odds on, perhaps the judge hasn't even decided that yet.
I suspect, and certainly if I was the prosecution would push for an appeal on the common law murder charge as Oscar's actions fit with "Dolus Eventualis" http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/D/DolusEventualis.aspx definition to my mind.
So it's not that they'll walk but that the jam bit of freedom n jam is actually vinegar.
Whatever gave you that idea?
FPT 'rcs1000 said:
» show previous quotes
It'll be more like 20%; I'd be surprised if 'yes' makes it through 40% on the night.
Are you still offering odds on that?'
I quite like Sarah Wollaston, but is she a true Tory?
I'm not going to offer you odds that are different to the market's, obviously.
Very rude of Donald Dewar's statue to use that kind of language.
@iainmartin1: @AlanRoden where?
@AlanRoden: @iainmartin1 Press release, speaking in Wester Hailes later.
@gasbaggrt: Jim Sillars has lost it...
"@NaeFear: BP,Bankers,Standard Life etc we shall always remember them, and they us at 10.01pm on 18th #indyref"
Perhaps if he could see the current crop of Labour day trippers he might get quite abusive.
The fact that it is better to operate in Norway than the UK at the moment surely says something about how bad the UK is managing the North Sea.
For the uninformed, Farage will be visiting Glasgow today.
2) I'm pointing out, Kippers are doing their very best to ensure there is no referendum any time soon on our membership of the EU.
Yes, the Flying Scotsman is indeed a benefit junkie!
(For theose who are not train obsessed, the Flying Scotsman locomotive was purchased for the nation in 2004, and a remonstration started in 2006 was supposed to take only a couple of years. It still has not moved a wheel, and the costs are massively over budget).
Ed Miliband and Gordon Brown haven't saved the Union. But they may have killed the Labour Party
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100286169/ed-miliband-and-gordon-brown-havent-saved-the-union-but-they-may-have-killed-the-labour-party/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
This is all getting so shrill up there, and downright nasty I fear, and it's going to probably be pretty close meaning another round in 10 years? So I'm beginning to wonder that even if there's a No will some folk quietly sell up and leave thereby avoiding a future tartan People's Republic (ok I exaggerate a bit)?
Want a referendum on remaining in the EU?
Vote Tory in 2015 to get one in 2017.
My conclusion is that the Straw Man invented by the Gnats is probably half true.
Scottish Men really are too stupid.
Sounds like they are making it up as they go along..
David Cameron in his bunker
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsRzO18nM8A
Slaves? Aping a stereotype? Quoting Latin? Surreal.
However, can they do it with a 35% strategy...ie one which is left wing enough to win them votes (with Scotland), or will they only be able to make it work with a new labour-ish one. With Devo-Max, then Scotland is effectively off the table for labour in Westminster on English matters.
That's the issue, and the question.
I can't understand why the Yes campaign isn't tearing all this devomax stuff apart. It's going to cause all kind of problems. It's daft to think it will all be sorted quickly because Gordon Brown says so.
Before Yes were ahead, afterwards No are ahead.
I think the way that Yougov have covered this is a complete nonsense. No was never as far ahead as they were claiming. There has been nothing like the size of swing they claim to have detected (at best for yes they were getting slightly more than their share of the undecideds closing the gap marginally) and I seriously doubt that Yes were in fact ahead. They make a lot of headlines and distort the campaign with their nonsense but a poll with Yes ahead did No a favour.
As has been so often the case in UK history, a new constitutional settlement is made up on the back of an envelope during some kind of crisis.
If the Conservatives are worried about a split vote returning a Labour government, then they should offer PR. If they won't, then they have no right to complain.
I agree with others on here that, no matter the outcome of the IndyRef, the SNP has successfully trashed the Scottish brand.
(which is a loss to Scotland and the rest of us).
It is difficult to disagree with what Hodges says. England will never acccept more powers for Scotland without a freezout of Scottish MPs from English measures.
And when the arguing starts, Wales will be drawn into the argument too, because Welsh MPs can vote on English education and health, not content with destroying both in their own country,
Blair may have won without Scotland, but I'm not sure even he could win without Scotland AND Wales.
ICYMI: Worth watching this #indyref video as MPs are screamed at in Glasgow, called slaves, traitors and the N word http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11090866/Labour-MPs-branded-slaves-by-Yes-campaigners-of-Scottish-independence.html …
Ugly stuff...
In June Brent crude was at $115 a barrel, yesterday it hit $ 98.
;-)
A bit more seriously, we tend to end up at the sharp end of political decisions. It is still often women who deal with schools and teachers, women who tend to be carers and women who use the health service more both for themselves and the children. We also get to see food inflation first hand as it tends to be us doing the shopping. All that breeds a certain cynicism.
Any protest will be drowned out by applause from the weird support band of happy clappers, whilst Jim Sillars and his skinheads re-educate dissenters.
PR is a fudge, the avoidance of choice. But choice has to be made.
Comical Ally will create some fantastical Brigadoon criteria to show how he *really* won. And we'll get thousands of posts on here from cybernats claiming foul. Just remember what the Yes2AV squad were like when they lost... that was painful and embarrassing cry-babying.
Reality for Alex reminds me of Julian Assange...
malc , having secured the support of Kim Jong Un yesterday I think Nats should be more worried about when Islamic State declare for iScotland.
He doesn't see negotiations being completed until Oct 2017, noting that when Slovakia departed from Czech, "it required 30 Treaties and some 2000 legal agreements to give effect to the separation".
He also questions whether leading Scottish MPs, such as Wee Dougie, could be involved as part of the UK team.
http://constitution-unit.com/2014/09/09/10-things-you-need-to-know-about-what-will-happen-if-scotland-votes-yes/#more-3345
That could be the devomax choice offered to Scottish voters. All other solutions look horrendous. I can't believe any unionists believe in an English parliament which would surely be the end of the UK shortly after.