If the Conservatives are worried about a split vote returning a Labour government, then they should offer PR. If they won't, then they have no right to complain.
Eternal coalitions, the LibDems possibly permanently in power, governments stitched up in smoke-free rooms by buying off minor parties with bribes and concessions to single-issue vested interests, voters not having a clue what they are voting for.
PR is a fudge, the avoidance of choice. But choice has to be made.
Is there any empirical evidence that countries with PR are less economically successful?
The agenda has moved on. Four years ago, UKIP were indeed a single-issue party. Now, as with the SNP, their supporters are rebelling against misgovernment at Westminster.
... by working to put back into power the party that was responsible for the misgovernment.
Both main parties are responsible for misgovernment.
If the Conservatives are worried about a split vote returning a Labour government, then they should offer PR. If they won't, then they have no right to complain.
Can you, firmly on the right as you are, provide a few examples of how the present government has 'misgoverned'?
The Yes Bully Boy charm offensive (and I do mean offensive)
@christopherhope: ICYMI here's my video of Labour MPs being called slaves and the N-word in Glasgow by Donald Dewar's statue yesterday: http://t.co/6veYo1n2Ij
The SNP skinhead's offensive mimicking of a black American slave was self-defeating since the cliche is Yes suh massah. Yes suh massah Rupert.
How do you know he was SNP? Did you ask to see his card? He's far more likely to be a disaffected Labour voter there. Glaswegian street humour can be very sarcastic. Vide the infamous Imperial Death March accompaniment a few moments earlier.
Per that video, How has David Cameron's visit to Scotland made things worse?
Before Yes were ahead, afterwards No are ahead.
The SNP/Cybernats are quickly diverging from reality...
It's quite possible that Salmond will claim a majority irrespective of a No having more votes.
Expect dissection of the figures - "if you take out English born voters..... ", "if you take out foreigners....", "if you take out old people who wont be alive in 20 years......"
I can't believe it. I agree with Dan Hodges. I would stop short of saying it will destroy Labour though. Dan is allowing his own personal fantasies free rein there.
I can't understand why the Yes campaign isn't tearing all this devomax stuff apart. It's going to cause all kind of problems. It's daft to think it will all be sorted quickly because Gordon Brown says so.
Oh, it's being extensively discussed up here. A look at twitter shows people are pretty clued up o the issues (purdah, breach of the Edinburgh Agreement in spirit if not letter of law, devomax not the same as devo-a-wee-bit-more, getting a real commitment beyond the end of a Westminster administration, etc., not ot menton memories of 1979). Doesn't mean it's being reported everywhere, that's the trouble.
I can't believe it. I agree with Dan Hodges. I would stop short of saying it will destroy Labour though. Dan is allowing his own personal fantasies free rein there.
I can't understand why the Yes campaign isn't tearing all this devomax stuff apart. It's going to cause all kind of problems. It's daft to think it will all be sorted quickly because Gordon Brown says so.
Westminster panicked. And it panicked because it is losing. No party in England commands majority support among English voters. And what we need is a constitutional settlement that reflects that. Scotland is currently reflecting a UK-wide disenchantment with Westminster machine politics. Whatever happens next Thursday this has to be tackled. And if that means right wing governments for England, so be it if it is the will of the people. My suspicion is that actually things are a lot more nuanced than many assume. England is a mixed bag.
Scotland's population was according to the 2011 census 5.295m. Any odds on a drop either absolute or relative to rUk in 2021?
This is all getting so shrill up there, and downright nasty I fear, and it's going to probably be pretty close meaning another round in 10 years? So I'm beginning to wonder that even if there's a No will some folk quietly sell up and leave thereby avoiding a future tartan People's Republic (ok I exaggerate a bit)?
My prediction is in the event of a no, unless there's constitutional change on an extreme scale we'd be looking at another vote within 30 years.
Not necessarily IMHO. The passion for 'Yes' may well fade quite quickly. In another 10 years it will be clearer what the real story about North Sea oil is.
The North Sea oil story isn't about the volume of production it's about the world price of oil, since the second peak oil is about price not volume.
In June Brent crude was at $115 a barrel, yesterday it hit $ 98.
That and the marginal cost of producing that oil. What we see in the North sea is all the low hanging fruit has gone. There is more fruit higher up and further along the branches but it is more difficult and expensive to get.
The result is that it is barely profitable to get it which means there is not a gain to tax. We may end up effectively subsidising the latter stage of north sea oil production with generous tax breaks, allowing costs to be set off against upstream operations and allowing full set off of the decommissioning costs. In short although it will remain an important source of employment (which will produce some indirect taxes) and ancillary investment activity it will cease to be a significant earner for either the Scottish or the UK Treasuries.
@AlanRoden: Jim Sillars: "When we get a Yes majority, we will use that power for a day of reckoning with BP and the banks." #indyref
Words fail me
ROFL
which banks ? There won't be any.
As for BP, make life too difficult and they'll simply shut down operations and spend their time and money on exploration and production elsewhere. If there's no profit in it why bother.
Is Sillars going to take malcolm out in a dinghy, to man the platforms himself?
The BP example is quite the most ridiculous of companies threatening to 'pull out' in the event of a Yes. BP have already pulled much of their operations out of the UK entirely. Their Head Office is already in London not Aberdeen and the only operations they have in Scotland are those necessary for running their North Sea assets.
Whether or not they pull out of North Sea operations will have nothing whatsoever to do with whether or not Scotland in independent. It will depend entirely on he balance of costs to profits (including tax regime) and the Oil price.
As I have mentioned before, the UK government have grossly mismanaged the tax regime for UK oil exploration and have caused a big drop in exploration and development since 2010. However incompetent the Scottish government were it would actually be difficult for them to run the system in a more damaging manner than the current and previous UK governments.
BP was originally referred to in the Sillar's posts below.
'Whether or not they pull out of North Sea operations will have nothing whatsoever to do with whether or not Scotland in independent.'
It's never been suggested that they would. The posts relate to how they might theoretically respond to Big Jim's 'day of reckoning' were it to be too harsh to continue profitable operations.
As I have already said it would be difficult for the Scots to present a regime that was harsher and more ill considered than that perpetuated by successive UK governments over the last 2 decades.
The fact that it is better to operate in Norway than the UK at the moment surely says something about how bad the UK is managing the North Sea.
Quite so. The much touted "blow to Salmond" recent reduction in tax take from the North Sea was, as I understand it, a direct response to Mr Osborne's sudden tax hike of a year or so back - the companies reduced production and/or directed effort to investment etc., ergo less tax take.
At which point the penny finally is going to drop for Miliband. He will be faced with a choice. He will have to try and cobble together some specious argument for why English voters are to be denied the same constitutional rights as their Scottish neighbours – an argument the Conservative Party and Ukip will gleefully tear to shreds – or he will have to endorse a constitutional settlement that will effective neuter him and his party politically for a generation.
And why? How has this catastrophic state of affairs been allowed to come about? Because last Sunday 13 people told one pollster in one opinion poll they would be voting “Yes” in next week’s referendum, rather than voting “No”.
It is difficult to disagree with what Hodges says. England will never acccept more powers for Scotland without a freezout of Scottish MPs from English measures.
And when the arguing starts, Wales will be drawn into the argument too, because Welsh MPs can vote on English education and health, not content with destroying both in their own country,
Blair may have won without Scotland, but I'm not sure even he could win without Scotland AND Wales.
So the Hodges paradox is that defenders of the union, having saved the union, will immediately set out to destroy the union by attacking Scotland and Wales.
The Yes Bully Boy charm offensive (and I do mean offensive)
@christopherhope: ICYMI here's my video of Labour MPs being called slaves and the N-word in Glasgow by Donald Dewar's statue yesterday: http://t.co/6veYo1n2Ij
The SNP skinhead's offensive mimicking of a black American slave was self-defeating since the cliche is Yes suh massah. Yes suh massah Rupert.
How do you know he was SNP? Did you ask to see his card? He's far more likely to be a disaffected Labour voter there. Glaswegian street humour can be very sarcastic. Vide the infamous Imperial Death March accompaniment a few moments earlier.
It's always someone else isn't it?
I wonder if Nats are capable of taking responsibility for anything.
New party slogan - "It wasnae me!"
Answers all uncomfortable questions such as 'Who destroyed the Scottish banking sector', or 'Who wiped out tourism?'
UKIP have selected 25% more candidates than the LDs so far. Shows where the momentum is, as confirmed by almost every poll putting the former ahead of the latter.
Do you think that there is a chance that the Lib Dems just don't contest all constituencies (excl NI)?
I think they'll definitely contest all GB seats except maybe Bercow's. Prestige demands it, however unpretty the results.
I agree. Clegg's whole pitch has been (misguidedly in my view) that the LDs have gone from being a party of protest to a party of government. To then decide not to run candidates everywhere would make them look cowardly and rather 2nd rate.
I can't believe it. I agree with Dan Hodges. I would stop short of saying it will destroy Labour though. Dan is allowing his own personal fantasies free rein there.
I can't understand why the Yes campaign isn't tearing all this devomax stuff apart. It's going to cause all kind of problems. It's daft to think it will all be sorted quickly because Gordon Brown says so.
Westminster panicked. And it panicked because it is losing. No party in England commands majority support among English voters. And what we need is a constitutional settlement that reflects that. Scotland is currently reflecting a UK-wide disenchantment with Westminster machine politics. Whatever happens next Thursday this has to be tackled. And if that means right wing governments for England, so be it if it is the will of the people. My suspicion is that actually things are a lot more nuanced than many assume. England is a mixed bag.
I don't think it will mean permanent tory rule, but it is clear that England (on a whole) is more on the 'right' spectrum than the UK. It might shift so that we get a labour akin to new labour, and a mix of tory/UKIP governments, but overall, it will shift right.
So the Hodges paradox is that defenders of the union, having saved the union, will immediately set out to destroy the union by attacking Scotland and Wales.
No. Hodges argues the union will survive. At the expense of the labour party.
Per that video, How has David Cameron's visit to Scotland made things worse?
Before Yes were ahead, afterwards No are ahead.
The SNP/Cybernats are quickly diverging from reality...
It's quite possible that Salmond will claim a majority irrespective of a No having more votes.
Expect dissection of the figures - "if you take out English born voters..... ", "if you take out foreigners....", "if you take out old people who wont be alive in 20 years......"
It is difficult to disagree with what Hodges says. England will never acccept more powers for Scotland without a freezout of Scottish MPs from English measures.
And when the arguing starts, Wales will be drawn into the argument too, because Welsh MPs can vote on English education and health, not content with destroying both in their own country,
Blair may have won without Scotland, but I'm not sure even he could win without Scotland AND Wales.
So the Hodges paradox is that defenders of the union, having saved the union, will immediately set out to destroy the union by attacking Scotland and Wales.
The Union is already fundamentally weakened. It was from the start of devolution.
It either has to loosen up, or has to fly apart. There is no status quo now
The trouble is those 'dodgy' polls could well have set in motion a chain of events that will destroy the UK in the medium term. As has been said devomax is asking for a constitutional quagmire.
The agenda has moved on. Four years ago, UKIP were indeed a single-issue party. Now, as with the SNP, their supporters are rebelling against misgovernment at Westminster.
... by working to put back into power the party that was responsible for the misgovernment.
Both main parties are responsible for misgovernment.
If the Conservatives are worried about a split vote returning a Labour government, then they should offer PR. If they won't, then they have no right to complain.
Can you, firmly on the right as you are, provide a few examples of how the present government has 'misgoverned'?
Inter alia, a botched strategic defence review; failure to control immigration from outside the EU; further extension of the nannying laws that the previous government was so fond of; opting back into the EU arrest warrant; a fall in the number of illegal immigrants being deported.
I'm not saying Labour would do any better (they'd probably do worse).
I don't think it will mean permanent tory rule, but it is clear that England (on a whole) is more on the 'right' spectrum than the UK.
I don't see how a union can survive when you have one part that wants to turn itself into Venezuela and another that wants to turn itself into Switzerland.
I can't believe it. I agree with Dan Hodges. I would stop short of saying it will destroy Labour though. Dan is allowing his own personal fantasies free rein there.
I can't understand why the Yes campaign isn't tearing all this devomax stuff apart. It's going to cause all kind of problems. It's daft to think it will all be sorted quickly because Gordon Brown says so.
Westminster panicked. And it panicked because it is losing. No party in England commands majority support among English voters. And what we need is a constitutional settlement that reflects that. Scotland is currently reflecting a UK-wide disenchantment with Westminster machine politics. Whatever happens next Thursday this has to be tackled. And if that means right wing governments for England, so be it if it is the will of the people. My suspicion is that actually things are a lot more nuanced than many assume. England is a mixed bag.
It depends on what one means by right wing. If you are thinking about the beliefs held by those leading right wing parties - largely privatisation, anti-state, pro big finance, I don't get the feeling there is much support for those things in England. They are more prepared to get tough on welfare and immigration though, which has some resonance, although I think peoples' views change sometimes when they see the reality isn't always matched by the media's claims.
I can't believe it. I agree with Dan Hodges. I would stop short of saying it will destroy Labour though. Dan is allowing his own personal fantasies free rein there.
I can't understand why the Yes campaign isn't tearing all this devomax stuff apart. It's going to cause all kind of problems. It's daft to think it will all be sorted quickly because Gordon Brown says so.
Westminster panicked. And it panicked because it is losing. No party in England commands majority support among English voters. And what we need is a constitutional settlement that reflects that. Scotland is currently reflecting a UK-wide disenchantment with Westminster machine politics. Whatever happens next Thursday this has to be tackled. And if that means right wing governments for England, so be it if it is the will of the people. My suspicion is that actually things are a lot more nuanced than many assume. England is a mixed bag.
Yes. Currently, an English Parliament (if elected by a similar system to the Scottish) would return a right-wing majority. But, there's no reason to assume it would always do so.
Hodges' article is, of course, absolutely right. Labour set in train a sequence of events that has only two possible outcomes: Disintegration or a Federation. It seems from recent days that the people's overall preference is for a Federation. I agree.
The value in Prof Fisher is that it indicates what a "usual" trend is likely to lead to. We are now in a trajectory towards a Lab Govt.
That's not what his model says. What it says is:
Approximate probabilities of key outcomes:
Con largest: 48% … with a majority: 22% Lab largest: 52% … with a majority: 26% Hung Parliament: 51% … with Con largest: 25% … with Lab largest: 26%
Actually it does say more or less in so many words that we're in a trajectory towards a Labour government. A certainty no. A trajectory yes.
"... yet another week has gone by without the Tories improving. Our model expects the Tories to make up ground and Labour to lose it, because that’s what the historical tendencies suggest. Every week that doesn’t happen, the forecast moves slightly away from the Tories and towards Labour.
And that’s been the overall trend since October: the Tories have made no progress in the polls..."
a Guardian phone out in in the space of an hour, this is the best day ever.
For one crazy moment I thought it was a Guardian-branded mobile they were touting. You get locked in a walled garden with access to approved metrosexual websites only. And of course the spell-check doesn't work. Trying to view Guido or Breibart results in a bricked device.
The Yes Bully Boy charm offensive (and I do mean offensive)
@christopherhope: ICYMI here's my video of Labour MPs being called slaves and the N-word in Glasgow by Donald Dewar's statue yesterday: http://t.co/6veYo1n2Ij
The SNP skinhead's offensive mimicking of a black American slave was self-defeating since the cliche is Yes suh massah. Yes suh massah Rupert.
How do you know he was SNP? Did you ask to see his card? He's far more likely to be a disaffected Labour voter there. Glaswegian street humour can be very sarcastic. Vide the infamous Imperial Death March accompaniment a few moments earlier.
It's always someone else isn't it?
I wonder if Nats are capable of taking responsibility for anything.
New party slogan - "It wasnae me!"
Answers all uncomfortable questions such as 'Who destroyed the Scottish banking sector', or 'Who wiped out tourism?'
As I'm not an SNP member, I couldn't literally answer your question - but you are making the mistake again (wilfully or not) of equating the Yes side with the SNP and that is a real misunderstanding given the way politics will now play out.
As for your comment about responsbility, the SNP have run the country reasonably well for one and the best part of a second term, and rather better than SLAB and SLD in voters' demonstrable opinion. Some might say that that was not difficult, but Messrs McConnell and McLeish weren't that bad in my opinion compared to some other SLAB leaders, and had some good ideas which they pushed.
a Guardian phone out in in the space of an hour, this is the best day ever.
For one crazy moment I thought it was a Guardian-branded mobile they were touting. You get locked in a walled garden access to approved metrosexual websites only. And of course the spell-check doesn't work.
Hah, I miss one word out.
So long as it wasn't a Daily Mail phone.
And let's not even get started on a news of the world phone.
Yorkshire wining the county championship and a Guardian phone out in in the space of an hour, this is the best day ever.
Thank goodness the poll isn't on Yorkshire independence. No doubt a sudden burst of delirium would have Westminster proposing devomax for Yorkshire, giving them full fiscal autonomy etc. I wonder whether they would keep the Queen? Or would they try and find the rightful heir of Richard III?
So the Hodges paradox is that defenders of the union, having saved the union, will immediately set out to destroy the union by attacking Scotland and Wales.
No. Hodges argues the union will survive. At the expense of the labour party.
Maybe others in the Labour party have cottoned on to this hence Diane Abbott last night on This Week bizarrely at the time I thought appeared to be warmer to independence than a No vote and tore into Niall Fergusson who was speaking up for the Union.
The Yes Bully Boy charm offensive (and I do mean offensive)
@christopherhope: ICYMI here's my video of Labour MPs being called slaves and the N-word in Glasgow by Donald Dewar's statue yesterday: http://t.co/6veYo1n2Ij
The SNP skinhead's offensive mimicking of a black American slave was self-defeating since the cliche is Yes suh massah. Yes suh massah Rupert.
How do you know he was SNP? Did you ask to see his card? He's far more likely to be a disaffected Labour voter there. Glaswegian street humour can be very sarcastic. Vide the infamous Imperial Death March accompaniment a few moments earlier.
It's always someone else isn't it?
I wonder if Nats are capable of taking responsibility for anything.
New party slogan - "It wasnae me!"
Answers all uncomfortable questions such as 'Who destroyed the Scottish banking sector', or 'Who wiped out tourism?'
'equating the Yes side with the SNP'
Forgive me, but is that why Salmond and supporters continue to equate 'No' with the Tories, and their Labour stooges?
Yorkshire wining the county championship and a Guardian phone out in in the space of an hour, this is the best day ever.
Thank goodness the poll isn't on Yorkshire independence. No doubt a sudden burst of delirium would have Westminster proposing devomax for Yorkshire, giving them full fiscal autonomy etc. I wonder whether they would keep the Queen? Or would they try and find the rightful heir of Richard III?
Yorkshire doesn't want Devo Max, we want control of the whole UK.
The Directly Elected Dictator of Yorkshire would be Primus Inter Pares of all the governing leaders of the UK
a Guardian phone out in in the space of an hour, this is the best day ever.
For one crazy moment I thought it was a Guardian-branded mobile they were touting. You get locked in a walled garden with access to approved metrosexual websites only. And of course the spell-check doesn't work. Trying to view Guido or Breibart results in a bricked device.
A couple of things occur to me - and no doubt many others - that as ONS consistently provides information that shows that the ratio between public sector jobs and private sector jobs is around 3% higher in Scotland alone than the whole of the UK (rUK figures not supplied in the sample I saw), following a Yes vote, those that relate to the the rest of the UK ( a substantial number) will be withdrawn from Scotland, leaving just those looking after Scottish interests. That will mean the loss of jobs for many people in Scotland, an increase in unemployment in a sector with many female employees. Does anyone have any projections that show the ratio of public versus private sector jobs should Scotland secede, that would include such a rise in unemployment - an additional burden on the State?
Agreed, it was botched, but it's a bit of a stretch to say that UKIP has strategic geniuses who would have done better than Liam Fox, especially given the very difficult economic circumstances and the inherited mess on defence
further extension of the nannying laws that the previous government was so fond of;
More to be done, certainly, but they've rolled back some nannying laws and in any case one man's 'nannying law' is another man's sensible piece of legislation.
I'm not saying Labour would do any better (they'd probably do worse).
Thanks to UKIP, you may have an opportunity to find out in a few months time.
In any case: what government in the last 50 years hasn't got some things wrong or not made as much progress as it might have done on some issues? Governing is hard and the pressures contradictory. To accuse the coalition of misgovernment, you have to look at the big picture. And the big picture is that on the key issues facing the country - notably the economy, welfare, and education - they have governed extremely well. They've got the big things right.
I can't believe it. I agree with Dan Hodges. I would stop short of saying it will destroy Labour though. Dan is allowing his own personal fantasies free rein there.
I can't understand why the Yes campaign isn't tearing all this devomax stuff apart. It's going to cause all kind of problems. It's daft to think it will all be sorted quickly because Gordon Brown says so.
Westminster panicked. And it panicked because it is losing. No party in England commands majority support among English voters. And what we need is a constitutional settlement that reflects that. Scotland is currently reflecting a UK-wide disenchantment with Westminster machine politics. Whatever happens next Thursday this has to be tackled. And if that means right wing governments for England, so be it if it is the will of the people. My suspicion is that actually things are a lot more nuanced than many assume. England is a mixed bag.
Yes. Currently, an English Parliament (if elected by a similar system to the Scottish) would return a right-wing majority. But, there's no reason to assume it would always do so.
What would Ukip's economic policies be? The party is hard to keep up with. I sill get the feeling it is a party of Thatcherites supported by grumpy, largely socially conservative voters. It all depends what you mean by right wing.
The agenda has moved on. Four years ago, UKIP were indeed a single-issue party. Now, as with the SNP, their supporters are rebelling against misgovernment at Westminster.
... by working to put back into power the party that was responsible for the misgovernment.
Both main parties are responsible for misgovernment.
If the Conservatives are worried about a split vote returning a Labour government, then they should offer PR. If they won't, then they have no right to complain.
Can you, firmly on the right as you are, provide a few examples of how the present government has 'misgoverned'?
Inter alia, a botched strategic defence review; failure to control immigration from outside the EU; further extension of the nannying laws that the previous government was so fond of; opting back into the EU arrest warrant; a fall in the number of illegal immigrants being deported.
I'm not saying Labour would do any better (they'd probably do worse).
OK, but compared to overall economic management - surely the big one - fundamental education and welfare reforms, aren't the areas you listed, though demonstrably important (naturally I wouldn't agree with your depiction of all of them but that's another issue), relatively secondary?
And not worth risking a Labour government which assuredly would do (far) worse across the board?
The Yes Bully Boy charm offensive (and I do mean offensive)
@christopherhope: ICYMI here's my video of Labour MPs being called slaves and the N-word in Glasgow by Donald Dewar's statue yesterday: http://t.co/6veYo1n2Ij
The SNP skinhead's offensive mimicking of a black American slave was self-defeating since the cliche is Yes suh massah. Yes suh massah Rupert.
How do you know he was SNP? Did you ask to see his card? He's far more likely to be a disaffected Labour voter there. Glaswegian street humour can be very sarcastic. Vide the infamous Imperial Death March accompaniment a few moments earlier.
It's always someone else isn't it?
I wonder if Nats are capable of taking responsibility for anything.
New party slogan - "It wasnae me!"
Answers all uncomfortable questions such as 'Who destroyed the Scottish banking sector', or 'Who wiped out tourism?'
'equating the Yes side with the SNP'
Is that why Salmond and supporters continue to equate 'No' with the Tories, and their Labour stooges?
Possibly because Better Together (specifically) is in large part Labour backed with Tory money and supplies and the odd visit? Mind you, we do have UKIP and then the Orange Order coming up for variety, but they are not, so far as I know, officially accepted as part of BT, and even then I don't recall their visit being discussed much by the Yes side (except to warn folk to keep clear and leave them to them enjoy their visit).
There is the risk of believing one's own BT side's propaganda about everything being due to Mr Salmond, which could be counterproductive given that for some time now the Yes movement has become decentralised and almost organic in its development, and I'm not talking about Henderson's Salad Bar, in a way BT doesn't seem to be. For one thing, that makes it silly to speak of a monolithic organization. For another, I've come to feel of late that Labour is increasingly finding itself fighting a second front in the form of a metaphorical civil war with the lefties - including very many ex-Labour types - in the council schemes. This is something to watch whatever happens next week, and I think that what we saw yesterday has a great deal to do with that.
Just looked through the data, young people and women have swung it towards no. That must be a response to the no blitz about future jobs and wheeling out big companies to talk doom and gloom about jobs has definitely taken its toll on yes. Young people looking at their own futures may be more worried now than before the blitz. To people with settled futures companies talking about leaving ught not mean a lot, but for young people and students companies like BAe, RBS, Lloyds or Standard Life leaving means fewer job opportunities.
The agenda has moved on. Four years ago, UKIP were indeed a single-issue party. Now, as with the SNP, their supporters are rebelling against misgovernment at Westminster.
... by working to put back into power the party that was responsible for the misgovernment.
Both main parties are responsible for misgovernment.
If the Conservatives are worried about a split vote returning a Labour government, then they should offer PR. If they won't, then they have no right to complain.
Can you, firmly on the right as you are, provide a few examples of how the present government has 'misgoverned'?
Inter alia, a botched strategic defence review; failure to control immigration from outside the EU; further extension of the nannying laws that the previous government was so fond of; opting back into the EU arrest warrant; a fall in the number of illegal immigrants being deported.
I'm not saying Labour would do any better (they'd probably do worse).
OK, but compared to overall economic management - surely the big one - fundamental education and welfare reforms, aren't the areas you listed, though demonstrably important (naturally I wouldn't agree with your depiction of all of them but that's another issue), relatively secondary?
And not worth risking a Labour government which assuredly would do (far) worse across the board?
PS I promise there was no confering with Dr N!
Depending on where your constituency is, it might be more likely UKIP win it then the Tories do. Also, if we abandon UKIP, then we will face the same issue next time, and the next time, and perpetually be choosing the poor option over the very poor option. Now that might suit the Richard Nabavis of this world, but it's not a very compelling strategy if you're not an ultraloyalist. If we get a UKIP break through this time, then in five years time they could very well get a few dozen seats, including in a bunch of Labour areas. That might mean a bigger right-wing majority in parliament. We must plan for the longer term.
Re ICM - Please note, Do not compare it to the last ICM indyref poll.
Those polls were conducted online, this a phone poll.
Phone polls affected by "shy Nos" factor (compared with less so/not at all for online poll), therefore expect good result for "Yes". I'll go for a 50% : 50% dead heat excl DKs.
Depending on where your constituency is, it might be more likely UKIP win it then the Tories do. Also, if we abandon UKIP, then we will face the same issue next time, and the next time, and perpetually be choosing the poor option over the very poor option. Now that might suit the Richard Nabavis of this world, but it's not a very compelling strategy if you're not an ultraloyalist. If we get a UKIP break through this time, then in five years time they could very well get a few dozen seats, including in a bunch of Labour areas. That might mean a bigger right-wing majority in parliament. We must plan for the longer term.
Post-hoc rationalisation of what is clearly a bonkers strategy.
Mr. G, so if they say prices could fall it's gospel, and if they say prices could rise they've been nobbled by the evil machinations of a perfidious Englishman?
MD , as any sensible person knows , prices go up and down in the UK all the time, mainly up though. It is therefore no different if we are independent. Dave and his cronies assume we are thick and will be easily taken in by lies.
Just looked through the data, young people and women have swung it towards no. That must be a response to the no blitz about future jobs and wheeling out big companies to talk doom and gloom about jobs has definitely taken its toll on yes. Young people looking at their own futures may be more worried now than before the blitz. To people with settled futures companies talking about leaving ught not mean a lot, but for young people and students companies like BAe, RBS, Lloyds or Standard Life leaving means fewer job opportunities.
I think that's right - my impression is that todays 16 -24 year olds are very sober and hard working. Their baby boomer parents extended blowout culminating in the 2007 - 2013 crash has made them so.
The Yes Bully Boy charm offensive (and I do mean offensive)
@christopherhope: ICYMI here's my video of Labour MPs being called slaves and the N-word in Glasgow by Donald Dewar's statue yesterday: http://t.co/6veYo1n2Ij
The SNP skinhead's offensive mimicking of a black American slave was self-defeating since the cliche is Yes suh massah. Yes suh massah Rupert.
How do you know he was SNP? Did you ask to see his card? He's far more likely to be a disaffected Labour voter there. Glaswegian street humour can be very sarcastic. Vide the infamous Imperial Death March accompaniment a few moments earlier.
Depending on where your constituency is, it might be more likely UKIP win it then the Tories do. Also, if we abandon UKIP, then we will face the same issue next time, and the next time, and perpetually be choosing the poor option over the very poor option. Now that might suit the Richard Nabavis of this world, but it's not a very compelling strategy if you're not an ultraloyalist. If we get a UKIP break through this time, then in five years time they could very well get a few dozen seats, including in a bunch of Labour areas. That might mean a bigger right-wing majority in parliament. We must plan for the longer term.
Post-hoc rationalisation of what is clearly a bonkers strategy.
I would rather have 10 more UKIP MPs and 10 fewer Labour ones.
John Lettice @Vulturemedia · 5 mins You must not campaign near polling stations in a way that could be seen by voters as aggressive or intimidating… @paulwaugh
RETWEETED BY Paul Waugh
John Lettice @Vulturemedia · 5 mins … for example, large groups of supporters carrying banners…" @paulwaugh
Phone polls affected by "shy Nos" factor, therefore expect good result for "Yes". .
Hmm, not so sure about that. On-line polls have a big problem with self-select bias (although the reputable on-line pollsters make big efforts to correct for this). That may mean the online polls are more favourable to Yes than this phone poll will be, but we shall see in a few minutes.
Just looked through the data, young people and women have swung it towards no. That must be a response to the no blitz about future jobs and wheeling out big companies to talk doom and gloom about jobs has definitely taken its toll on yes. Young people looking at their own futures may be more worried now than before the blitz. To people with settled futures companies talking about leaving ught not mean a lot, but for young people and students companies like BAe, RBS, Lloyds or Standard Life leaving means fewer job opportunities.
I think young people are likely to be softer Yes's because they expect to live in a globalised world. Older people because they are still influenced by the War spirit of their parents. Men in early middle age are most enthusiastic Yes'ers and ironically will be worst affected by the post independence recession. Young people can emigrate, but they have families holding them here.
Non-EU immigration is a "work in progress"? Given that you're only 5% the way there towards net immigration in the tens of thousands, this is a ridiculous exaggeration. Even if EU immigration had fell alongside it, you still haven't made it half-way on non-EU immigration. And what are the plans to cut it further? Bring back the primary purpose rule? A higher income requirement for family visas? A higher salary level needed for work visas? As with EU negotiation, it's all airy fairy words and no commitment to what will practically be done, or even aimed at.
Comments
You'll probably lose some of your financial services industry whether you vote no or yes, I reckon.
If you vote yes you'll lose it all.
The result is that it is barely profitable to get it which means there is not a gain to tax. We may end up effectively subsidising the latter stage of north sea oil production with generous tax breaks, allowing costs to be set off against upstream operations and allowing full set off of the decommissioning costs. In short although it will remain an important source of employment (which will produce some indirect taxes) and ancillary investment activity it will cease to be a significant earner for either the Scottish or the UK Treasuries.
Most people are pissed off with 3 years of pure tedium
Westminster won't pass the legislation
Guardian/ICM poll on Scottish independence will be published at 12.30pm. It's a telephone poll.
Next #indyref poll from ICM/Guardian out at 12.30pm this afternoon.
Edinburgh, City of Edinburgh
Jim WatersonVerified account
@jimwaterson
Deputy Editor at @BuzzfeedUK.
I wonder if Nats are capable of taking responsibility for anything.
New party slogan - "It wasnae me!"
Answers all uncomfortable questions such as 'Who destroyed the Scottish banking sector', or 'Who wiped out tourism?'
No. Hodges argues the union will survive. At the expense of the labour party.
It either has to loosen up, or has to fly apart. There is no status quo now
I'm not saying Labour would do any better (they'd probably do worse).
I don't see how a union can survive when you have one part that wants to turn itself into Venezuela and another that wants to turn itself into Switzerland.
None of this, the lead being wiped out by a MOE swing.
It will settle the matter once and for all
Those polls were conducted online, this a phone poll.
"... yet another week has gone by without the Tories improving. Our model expects the Tories to make up ground and Labour to lose it, because that’s what the historical tendencies suggest. Every week that doesn’t happen, the forecast moves slightly away from the Tories and towards Labour.
And that’s been the overall trend since October: the Tories have made no progress in the polls..."
http://electionsetc.com/2014/09/12/forecast-update-12-september-2014/
There's going to be a reckoning.
As for your comment about responsbility, the SNP have run the country reasonably well for one and the best part of a second term, and rather better than SLAB and SLD in voters' demonstrable opinion. Some might say that that was not difficult, but Messrs McConnell and McLeish weren't that bad in my opinion compared to some other SLAB leaders, and had some good ideas which they pushed.
So long as it wasn't a Daily Mail phone.
And let's not even get started on a news of the world phone.
Labour's worst mistake now would be to give extra powers for Scotland whilst pretending to England that nothing is changing.
I wouldn't put it past them.
I must have misheard the audio at the debates.
The Directly Elected Dictator of Yorkshire would be Primus Inter Pares of all the governing leaders of the UK
BT, EE, O2, TalkTalk and Vodafone in talks over issuing statement warning of rising prices if a Yes #indyref vote http://news.sky.com/story/1334701/telecoms-giants-in-talks-on-independence-vote …
All the mobile phone masts will be shut down in Jim Sillars paradise.....
In any case: what government in the last 50 years hasn't got some things wrong or not made as much progress as it might have done on some issues? Governing is hard and the pressures contradictory. To accuse the coalition of misgovernment, you have to look at the big picture. And the big picture is that on the key issues facing the country - notably the economy, welfare, and education - they have governed extremely well. They've got the big things right.
And not worth risking a Labour government which assuredly would do (far) worse across the board?
PS I promise there was no confering with Dr N!
Orwell would be so proud of them...
There is the risk of believing one's own BT side's propaganda about everything being due to Mr Salmond, which could be counterproductive given that for some time now the Yes movement has become decentralised and almost organic in its development, and I'm not talking about Henderson's Salad Bar, in a way BT doesn't seem to be. For one thing, that makes it silly to speak of a monolithic organization. For another, I've come to feel of late that Labour is increasingly finding itself fighting a second front in the form of a metaphorical civil war with the lefties - including very many ex-Labour types - in the council schemes. This is something to watch whatever happens next week, and I think that what we saw yesterday has a great deal to do with that.
Is marching to a polling station even legal? Has @ElectoralCommUK made a ruling? #indyref
So only a handful of people know the exact figures
Interesting roundup.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tiSww7FJAE
Delusion from 1978.
Dave and his cronies assume we are thick and will be easily taken in by lies.
@Vulturemedia: … for example, large groups of supporters carrying banners…" @paulwaugh
I hope not, PB has only just started returning to it's normal state of Scot bashing.
You must not campaign near polling stations in a way that could be seen by voters as aggressive or intimidating… @paulwaugh
RETWEETED BY Paul Waugh
John Lettice @Vulturemedia · 5 mins
… for example, large groups of supporters carrying banners…" @paulwaugh
Non-EU immigration is a "work in progress"? Given that you're only 5% the way there towards net immigration in the tens of thousands, this is a ridiculous exaggeration. Even if EU immigration had fell alongside it, you still haven't made it half-way on non-EU immigration. And what are the plans to cut it further? Bring back the primary purpose rule? A higher income requirement for family visas? A higher salary level needed for work visas? As with EU negotiation, it's all airy fairy words and no commitment to what will practically be done, or even aimed at.
Don't forget to listen to objective but worried @icmresearch pollster on @BBCRadio4 More or Less 4.30pm today. #indyref