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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Scotland rejects independence next week it will be because of the failure to convince women
The big difference between the latest YouGov IndyRef poll and the one from last weekend showing a 2% YES lead has been a big switch amongst women voters.
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@benrileysmith: Salmond's contradictory RBS stance.
A) Old news, not significant, has no consequences.
Open primaries are an interesting idea, but maybe need a bit more thought."
No doubt the good people of Broxtowe will relish their ability to participate in an open primary to select the Labour candidate.
No? You surprise me....
@hugorifkind: This. RT @VictoriaPeckham: Also Yes voters organising community marches to polling stations seems intimidating & counter democratic to me.
Get your armbands on folks
Will they accept Tunnock's Tea Cakes as collateral?
Words fail me
Scotland is already a 'nation'; what it does not have is all the apparatus of a state, and those are the questions that Eck has no answers for.
http://electionsetc.com/2014/09/12/forecast-update-12-september-2014/
But Labour has no idea to address it. AWS just get women who have been through the political process and have the same mindset as the men, and is (in my mind at least) misandric.
Open primaries are a tool to cure this, albeit one that needs careful use. The Conservatives need congratulating for at least trying them and getting more varied people into parliament.
(NIck Palmer is a welcome exception to the above).
Lab ............ 299 (+4 seats)
Con ........... 295 (-6 seats)
LibDem ....... 27 (+1 seat)
Other .......... 29 (+1 seat)
Total ........ 650 seats
I don't want to see the UK end, but I'd rather lose Scotland than England.
Mr. Owl, you're quite right.
Mr. Verulamius, don't be daft. A Yorkshire Parliament (and others) would institutionalise intra-English division and discord. Did the Scottish Parliament 'kill nationalism stone dead', or did it lead to the very realistic prospect of Scotland leaving altogether?
On-topic: this line seems odd to me. If Yes wins will people say it was because No couldn't persuade men?
Perhaps a Great Dane?
No matter who is in power, we have a large group, based largely on geography of unhappy people, and that does not bode well for the nation.
The yes lead from previous you gov polls does not seem to have generated a band wagon but rather a pulling back from the brink particularly from women.
I have much enjoyed the discomfort of the UK Establishment and still hope for a yes vote.However (unfortunately) it looks to me like a no vote will prevail on the 18th.
They've managed to hollow out banking and finance, might as well do the same with oil.
Tourism's stuffed - no one of sound mind will bother visiting such a hostile and divided nation.
What's left?
Whatever side of the debate you're on - the bully-boy tactics and threats from some Yessers is really appalling.
Scott'n'paste indeed.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/scottish-independence-blog/live/2014/sep/12/scottish-independence-referendum-cabinet-secretary-rejects-improper-leak-claim-live
TheGreatBaldo
12 September 2014 8:34am
Hi Andrew
Is the Guardian/ICM poll out tonight or is it out at the weekend ?
After months of having widely diverging polls, in the last 2 weeks, all of them have appeared to now come into line with the figures that Survation and Panelbase are producing.
Can't remember what the last ICM poll for Scotland on Sunday said. but I'll go for this one showing a small NO lead, within the margin of error once D/K's are excluded.
--
Guardian staff
AndrewSparrow
12 September 2014 9:08am
I think it's out tonight.
I've never sat on a jury though I imagine the machinations are very close to a pre production meeting of which I have sat through lots.....
The remarkable thing is how often uninformed opinion can hold sway and how often bad decisions are made because so many around the table are too weak or stupid to think for themselves.
Well, I'm sure that's just the sort of reassurance the money markets love to hear.
I honestly think he's losing his mind. Or believing his own renta-a-mob publicity. No one with their senses intact would make even idle or jocular threats like that.
It's Swaggernomics.
After a period of negotiation we could agree to a federation with Wales and Northern Ireland
http://electionsetc.com/2014/09/11/how-accurate-will-the-scottish-independence-referendum-polls-be/
So overall the evidence is mixed, but not balanced. It seems more likely that the headline poll figures excluding Don’t Knows are over rather than under-estimating the vote for Scottish independence, and this will be especially true of the final polls.
Would tend to think that will affect the trust factor even more.
It looks as though the leaders popping up to tell us not to go is not going to have the negative effect the Yesperates were hoping for.
Still not home and dry yet..........
Still waiting for Salmond's Kinnock beach or Browns bigot moment.
Lack of sleep and Mars bars is bound to affect the man.
If an MP wants to be lazy and be voting fodder, then they can. They also have the opportunity to make a real difference to their constituent's lives.
But only if they want to.
Followed by anyone who voted 'No'.
Basically, government turned out to be bad for economic growth.
http://www.petsworld.in/blog/panda-dog-yes-this-looks-like-a-panda-but-is-a-dog.html
Any Board facing a strategic decision on whether to be based in Scotland or England (or frankly, anywhere else in the known Universe) will be taking note.
Prof Fisher
From the link you posted
"The scales have tipped. After favouring the Tories since it launched in October last year, our model now makes Labour the favourite to emerge as the largest party in May".
Surely the whole point of Prof Fisher's convoluted methodology is that he predicts the actual result way ahead of time. If every week he changes his projection we might as well ask SeanT
which banks ? There won't be any.
You wouldn't want to own any property in Scotland. The entire country could be in negative equity after a 'Yes' vote.
Sillars sounds like a complete nutter.
Is Sillars going to take malcolm out in a dinghy, to man the platforms himself?
But it's still fun fact :-)
And I like the fact that when no decisions at all were being taken was the time when the economy did best...
If he really did say what Roden is claiming, he's certifiably insane.
The judge in the OP case has been very thorough and I don't disagree with her verdict. The notion though that Pistorius might escape with a large fine would seem curious to British eyes where culpable homicide or manslaughter and even firing a gun in a restaurant would be treated as very serious offences. I'd certainly feel in the circumstances he should receive a significant custodial sentence.
To put in another way: After all the talk of momentum, it looks like we've reached the top of Mount Sindy, came face-to-face with a tribe of economic yetis, and are now careering back down the other side to safety. Some people, of course, are still denying the yetis ever existed.
Approximate probabilities of key outcomes:
Con largest: 48%
… with a majority: 22%
Lab largest: 52%
… with a majority: 26%
Hung Parliament: 51%
… with Con largest: 25%
… with Lab largest: 26%
Latest Populus VI: Lab 37 (+1), Con 33 (-1), LD 9 (=), UKIP 13 (+1), Oth 7 (-2). Tables here: http://popu.lu/s_vi140912
That was weird, sometimes even Salmond didn't seem to know what they were clapping for.
Re #Richard_Tyndall and #rcs1000
I quite agree, I'm something of a libertarian myself. Unfortunately a wholly libertarian party will not get elected in this country (UK). People are too addicted to the teat of benefits and after 69 years of being told that the country (government) will look after you from cradle to grave, it is going to be a mighty battle to turn things around. The thing that is going for UKIP, at the moment, is that people are at last beginning, and only beginning, to see what a mess the established parties have made of the UK: with a notion also, that we as a nation are lying defenceless against a massive muslim threat and anything else that may harm us.
@libertyIAB @DavidJo52951945 @Nigel_Farage He never hides his opinion,dosnt sit on the fence, you know his policies. Cant be said for others
Farage is on LBC this morning.
Whether or not they pull out of North Sea operations will have nothing whatsoever to do with whether or not Scotland in independent. It will depend entirely on he balance of costs to profits (including tax regime) and the Oil price.
As I have mentioned before, the UK government have grossly mismanaged the tax regime for UK oil exploration and have caused a big drop in exploration and development since 2010. However incompetent the Scottish government were it would actually be difficult for them to run the system in a more damaging manner than the current and previous UK governments.
"But surely you don't want to be ruled by Brussels" said Mrs. T
"It has to be better than being ruled by Rome" said the Italian voter, shrugging...
He deserves to be slaughtered at the ballot box.
“especially if it focuses solely on Rotherham and on Asian men grooming white girls”
We all know what was motivating him.
Still, I suppose it's not likely to be as bad as the suspended Labour councillor who was head of a taxi firm and had a cousin that worked for him arrested for rape.
They're going to 'liberate' the Registers for future use.