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Macron set to win on Sunday – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2022 in General
imageMacron set to win on Sunday – politicalbetting.com

We have not covered much the final round of voting in the French presidential election which takes place on Sunday. The reason is Macron’s victory looks very assured and this is reflected in the final polls which by French law were published late last night.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,094
    First?
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,094
    Hell, I'll take second too if no one wants it
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,567
    Third for me.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,241
    An update to Mike's post. Latest poll fresh out is

    Macron 57%
    Le Pen 43%

    https://www.opinion-way.com/fr/barometre-opinionway-kea-partners-election-presidentielle-2022

  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,200
    On Topic : My money is on 55% for Macron
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,834
    At the 1922 committee Aaron Bell specifically asked Boris Johnson if the 20 May 2020 'BYOB' garden drinks was a work event

    Johnson replied it was

    Police fines for the event - now dropping in inboxes - suggest otherwise
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1517522953520431105
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,200
    geoffw said:

    williamglenn said:

    Apparently another major fire in Russia, this time at TsNIIMash, a Russian rocket research centre.

    https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1517518447328079872

    Careless or unfortunate?

    What The Actual Fuck is going on?

    1) Is @Leon secretly using his spare flints to set fire to everything in Russia?
    2) Does the Ukrainian Neptune missile have a land attack mode?
    3) Is the Hereford Boat Club visiting Russian cathedrals?
    4) Have the Ukrainians been given a few semi trucks full of dollar bills by the Americans and are they using is to bribe Russians to set fire to their workplaces?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    edited April 2022
    Quelle Surprise for Macron.

    Still, changed Le Pen or not, she's making progress that would have worried people in years past.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    More drawing a line and moving on, I see.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,127
    btw if Roger is around, it is las Ramblas.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,184
    Whyte and Fury playing it straight down the line at the weigh-in. Lot of respect (= justifiable apprehension) for tomorrow.

    Going to be a cracking fight.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited April 2022
    It's misleading because the French would always do what's necessary to make sure the far right loses. If the poll had shown it level pegging Macron's vote would have gone up to cover it. I don't want to be the kiss of death but from day one I predicted somewhere between 60/40 and 55/45.

    I'd also like to hand over my position as worst predictor on PB to Moon Rabbit. Her performance has been nothing short of outstanding. From being 'absolutely certain' Macron wouldn't make the final two she went on to be even more certain that Le Pen would definitely win.

    It's tough being sure of yourself when polls are telling you something different but I salute her tenacity!
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,572
    I see that the ONS have reported that around 70% of people in England have had Covid, but just over 51% in Scotland and 56% in Wales.

    I can only conclude that the tighter restrictions have made a difference.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,799
    Is there anywhere a good graphical timeline of what restrictions were in place on what dates, for reference in all this?
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,572
    Scott_xP said:

    At the 1922 committee Aaron Bell specifically asked Boris Johnson if the 20 May 2020 'BYOB' garden drinks was a work event

    Johnson replied it was

    Police fines for the event - now dropping in inboxes - suggest otherwise
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1517522953520431105

    "Bring your own Bozo"
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Scott_xP said:

    At the 1922 committee Aaron Bell specifically asked Boris Johnson if the 20 May 2020 'BYOB' garden drinks was a work event

    Johnson replied it was

    Police fines for the event - now dropping in inboxes - suggest otherwise
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1517522953520431105

    In relation to this event, it's important to note that the question of whether Boris misled the House doesn't depend on whether he personally broke the law on that day.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    edited April 2022
    Final Atlas poll also out and has it Macron 53% and Le Pen 47%. Ifop has it Macron 55% and Le Pen 45%.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522363310505984?s=20&t=iRw4AyyTYd6pZ9ZF1EgRfg
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522358147465216?t=Jj_LqMKGYEA1flsbVuFnaw&s=19


    Either way it will still be a much closer runoff than 2017, even if Macron is still likely re elected
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,604
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Scott_xP said:

    At the 1922 committee Aaron Bell specifically asked Boris Johnson if the 20 May 2020 'BYOB' garden drinks was a work event

    Johnson replied it was

    Police fines for the event - now dropping in inboxes - suggest otherwise
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1517522953520431105

    In relation to this event, it's important to note that the question of whether Boris misled the House doesn't depend on whether he personally broke the law on that day.
    Though to break the Ministerial Code it has to be intentionally misleading.

    If unintentional, like Starmer on Wednesday, then merely correcting the record is expected.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    JosiasJessop said:

    Scott_xP said:

    US does not agree w/Boris Johnson that there is a “realistic possibility” that Putin may win, deputy nat sec adviser Daleep Singh told @jimsciutto.
    “No. The assessment from where we stand is that ...ultimately Putin will see that this is not the end game that he bargained for."
    https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1517508111329857536

    This all comes down to how you see 'win'. Johnson is correct that Russia might get a 'win' that furthers their strategic cause: e.g. a link along the coast to Transnistria. The US is also correct that such a strategic 'win' would probably be a pyrrhic victory, and certainly not the 'win' Putin was after.
    Quite so. He will pretend a win regardless, but while he clearly had larger aims at the start something approximating a win seems possible.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,419
    edited April 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Final Atlas poll also out and has it Macron 53% and Le Pen 47%. Ifop has it Macron 55% and Le Pen 45%.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522363310505984?s=20&t=iRw4AyyTYd6pZ9ZF1EgRfg
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522358147465216?t=Jj_LqMKGYEA1flsbVuFnaw&s=19


    Either way it will still be a much closer runoff than 2017, even if Macron is still likely re elected

    53/47 is a bit close for comfort given that Le Pen is still making pro-Russia comments.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    TOPPING said:

    Whyte and Fury playing it straight down the line at the weigh-in. Lot of respect (= justifiable apprehension) for tomorrow.

    Makes for a change. I wonder if promoters felt people were getting bored of the staged spats.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,101
    SandyRentool said:

    I see that the ONS have reported that around 70% of people in England have had Covid, but just over 51% in Scotland and 56% in Wales.

    I can only conclude that the tighter restrictions have made a difference.

    Quite possibly, although are there any other differences in the countries? Population density, deprivation, health service?
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,604
    DougSeal said:

    Hell, I'll take second too if no one wants it

    You'll take Le Pen? 😲
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    13m
    The Met Police policy of not announcing anything until after local elections going well

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1517525207690403841
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Final Atlas poll also out and has it Macron 53% and Le Pen 47%. Ifop has it Macron 55% and Le Pen 45%.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522363310505984?s=20&t=iRw4AyyTYd6pZ9ZF1EgRfg
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522358147465216?t=Jj_LqMKGYEA1flsbVuFnaw&s=19


    Either way it will still be a much closer runoff than 2017, even if Macron is still likely re elected

    53/47 is a bit close for comfort given that Le Pen is still making pro-Russia comments.
    Indeed, 47% is what Trump got in the US in 2016 and 2020
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,834
    More on those Ed Balls for Wakefield rumours with ⁦@patrickkmaguire⁩

    Gordon Brown is understood to be among those championing his candidacy 👀
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/73b08e80-c235-11ec-8413-422ef6319ad0?shareToken=6b2c5762144c64728429f02885f3166f
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,519
    edited April 2022
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Scott_xP said:

    At the 1922 committee Aaron Bell specifically asked Boris Johnson if the 20 May 2020 'BYOB' garden drinks was a work event

    Johnson replied it was

    Police fines for the event - now dropping in inboxes - suggest otherwise
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1517522953520431105

    In relation to this event, it's important to note that the question of whether Boris misled the House doesn't depend on whether he personally broke the law on that day.
    Though to break the Ministerial Code it has to be intentionally misleading.

    If unintentional, like Starmer on Wednesday, then merely correcting the record is expected.
    Quite so. How on earth could Boris have realised that attending a gathering in response to a Bring Your Own Booze invitation from his PPS (Martin Reynolds), along with lots of other people, was against the rules in place at the time?

    Sorry, but your defence of Boris is absurd.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,240
    HYUFD said:

    Final Atlas poll also out and has it Macron 53% and Le Pen 47%. Ifop has it Macron 55% and Le Pen 45%.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522363310505984?s=20&t=iRw4AyyTYd6pZ9ZF1EgRfg
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522358147465216?t=Jj_LqMKGYEA1flsbVuFnaw&s=19


    Either way it will still be a much closer runoff than 2017, even if Macron is still likely re elected

    When he is elected, not if
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,049
    SandyRentool said:

    I see that the ONS have reported that around 70% of people in England have had Covid, but just over 51% in Scotland and 56% in Wales.

    I can only conclude that the tighter restrictions have made a difference.

    The ONS say that the figures aren't comparable because they cover different periods.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,285
    Sainz in the wall (uninjured).

    The two Mercedes close to undriveable, with the porpoising worse than ever.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Scott_xP said:

    At the 1922 committee Aaron Bell specifically asked Boris Johnson if the 20 May 2020 'BYOB' garden drinks was a work event

    Johnson replied it was

    Police fines for the event - now dropping in inboxes - suggest otherwise
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1517522953520431105

    I've just looked at the replies under the tweet. I loved this one.

    "He genuinely, absolutely, believed it was......right up to the Charlie"
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,604
    Northern_Al said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Scott_xP said:

    At the 1922 committee Aaron Bell specifically asked Boris Johnson if the 20 May 2020 'BYOB' garden drinks was a work event

    Johnson replied it was

    Police fines for the event - now dropping in inboxes - suggest otherwise
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1517522953520431105

    In relation to this event, it's important to note that the question of whether Boris misled the House doesn't depend on whether he personally broke the law on that day.
    Though to break the Ministerial Code it has to be intentionally misleading.

    If unintentional, like Starmer on Wednesday, then merely correcting the record is expected.
    Quite so. How on earth could Boris have realised that attending a gathering in response to a Bring Your Own Booze invitation from his PPS (Martin Reynolds), along with lots of other people, was against the rules in place at the time?

    Sorry, but your defence of Boris is absurd.
    I think Boris should resign, but if he thought it was a work event (and there's nothing against booze at work) then that isn't a lie.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,184
    edited April 2022
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Whyte and Fury playing it straight down the line at the weigh-in. Lot of respect (= justifiable apprehension) for tomorrow.

    Makes for a change. I wonder if promoters felt people were getting bored of the staged spats.
    Whyte was in Fury's training camp as a sparring partner 10 years ago and we have seen with eg. Parker that that can make a strong bond. Fury has said he wouldn't fight Parker now.

    As to the staged spats perhaps, perhaps not. Where there is a genuine animosity (eg Khan/Brook) that certainly helps ticket sales and which promoter is going to get all sensible when they can up the PPVs.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    Northern_Al said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Scott_xP said:

    At the 1922 committee Aaron Bell specifically asked Boris Johnson if the 20 May 2020 'BYOB' garden drinks was a work event

    Johnson replied it was

    Police fines for the event - now dropping in inboxes - suggest otherwise
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1517522953520431105

    In relation to this event, it's important to note that the question of whether Boris misled the House doesn't depend on whether he personally broke the law on that day.
    Though to break the Ministerial Code it has to be intentionally misleading.

    If unintentional, like Starmer on Wednesday, then merely correcting the record is expected.
    Quite so. How on earth could Boris have realised that attending a gathering in response to a Bring Your Own Booze invitation from his PPS (Martin Reynolds), along with lots of other people, was against the rules in place at the time?

    Sorry, but your defence of Boris is absurd.
    It's what Boris will claim, and it is technically impossible to prove if he doesn't admit it. It just relies on him pretending to be incredibly stupid, whilst also being the best person to run the country.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137

    Christopher Hope📝
    @christopherhope
    ·
    3h
    NEW I understand Conservative MPs have drafted post-dated no confidence letters ready to be sent to Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 committee, on May 6, the day after the local elections.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1517477661832105984
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,604
    kle4 said:

    Northern_Al said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Scott_xP said:

    At the 1922 committee Aaron Bell specifically asked Boris Johnson if the 20 May 2020 'BYOB' garden drinks was a work event

    Johnson replied it was

    Police fines for the event - now dropping in inboxes - suggest otherwise
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1517522953520431105

    In relation to this event, it's important to note that the question of whether Boris misled the House doesn't depend on whether he personally broke the law on that day.
    Though to break the Ministerial Code it has to be intentionally misleading.

    If unintentional, like Starmer on Wednesday, then merely correcting the record is expected.
    Quite so. How on earth could Boris have realised that attending a gathering in response to a Bring Your Own Booze invitation from his PPS (Martin Reynolds), along with lots of other people, was against the rules in place at the time?

    Sorry, but your defence of Boris is absurd.
    It's what Boris will claim, and it is technically impossible to prove if he doesn't admit it. It just relies on him pretending to be incredibly stupid, whilst also being the best person to run the country.
    Precisely!
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,419
    edited April 2022
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Final Atlas poll also out and has it Macron 53% and Le Pen 47%. Ifop has it Macron 55% and Le Pen 45%.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522363310505984?s=20&t=iRw4AyyTYd6pZ9ZF1EgRfg
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522358147465216?t=Jj_LqMKGYEA1flsbVuFnaw&s=19


    Either way it will still be a much closer runoff than 2017, even if Macron is still likely re elected

    When he is elected, not if
    A secondary target for Macron would be to win the election without having to rely on votes from the Paris area. If it's 55/45 he'll probably do that. If it's 52/48 maybe not.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,094
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    @Roger

    'I'd also like to hand over my position as worst predictor on PB to Moon Rabbit.'

    Sorry, Rog, it's a lifetime post. You can't just hand it over like that. ;)

    And she's picked a couple of winners on the horses as well.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    Andy_JS said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Final Atlas poll also out and has it Macron 53% and Le Pen 47%. Ifop has it Macron 55% and Le Pen 45%.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522363310505984?s=20&t=iRw4AyyTYd6pZ9ZF1EgRfg
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522358147465216?t=Jj_LqMKGYEA1flsbVuFnaw&s=19


    Either way it will still be a much closer runoff than 2017, even if Macron is still likely re elected

    When he is elected, not if
    A secondary target for Macron would be to win the election without having to rely on votes from the Paris area. If it's 55/45 he'll probably do that. If it's 52/48 maybe not.
    In the first round Le Pen won most regions outside Paris
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Also, don't forget that Sue Gray had the pictures and emails, and interviewed those involved.
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    MalcolmDunnMalcolmDunn Posts: 139
    Poor France. A worse choice of leader than Britain had in 2019 or the US had in 2020.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    Scott_xP said:

    More on those Ed Balls for Wakefield rumours with ⁦@patrickkmaguire⁩

    Gordon Brown is understood to be among those championing his candidacy 👀
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/73b08e80-c235-11ec-8413-422ef6319ad0?shareToken=6b2c5762144c64728429f02885f3166f

    Starmer will need to work what to do with a 'big beast'.

    Reeves doing a very good job at CoE shadow, so moving her would be a mistake.

    Party Chair? As in the traditional, minister for the Today programme, style of role?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Also, don't forget that Sue Gray had the pictures and emails, and interviewed those involved.

    Maybe I am becoming cynical, but I doubt Gray's report will ever see the light of day.

  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    rottenborough said:


    Christopher Hope📝
    @christopherhope
    ·
    3h
    NEW I understand Conservative MPs have drafted post-dated no confidence letters ready to be sent to Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 committee, on May 6, the day after the local elections.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1517477661832105984

    They're not cheques!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    rottenborough said:


    Christopher Hope📝
    @christopherhope
    ·
    3h
    NEW I understand Conservative MPs have drafted post-dated no confidence letters ready to be sent to Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 committee, on May 6, the day after the local elections.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1517477661832105984

    That's cowardly. Either they think he should go now, or they think he should only go if the local elections go badly.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,604
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Also, don't forget that Sue Gray had the pictures and emails, and interviewed those involved.

    I'm going from memory but didn't he actually say that he "believed implicitly [at the time] that it was a work event" and not insist post-Gray that it was?

    Though either way, having a difference of opinion with the Police is not against the rules and is not a lie, nor should it ever be. We don't live in a Police State.

    If disagreeing with the Police were a crime/a lie then many thread headers by Cyclefree especially and others would be in hot water, but we live in a free society so that's thankfully not the case.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    MalcolmDunn said:

    Poor France. A worse choice of leader than Britain had in 2019 or the US had in 2020.

    IDK, Macron doesn't seem that bad.
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913
    HYUFD said:

    Final Atlas poll also out and has it Macron 53% and Le Pen 47%. Ifop has it Macron 55% and Le Pen 45%.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522363310505984?s=20&t=iRw4AyyTYd6pZ9ZF1EgRfg
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522358147465216?t=Jj_LqMKGYEA1flsbVuFnaw&s=19


    Either way it will still be a much closer runoff than 2017, even if Macron is still likely re elected

    Very few politicians do better running for re-election. It's no real surprise that Macron is polling less well than he did first time around.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,572
    LostPassword said:

    SandyRentool said:

    I see that the ONS have reported that around 70% of people in England have had Covid, but just over 51% in Scotland and 56% in Wales.

    I can only conclude that the tighter restrictions have made a difference.

    The ONS say that the figures aren't comparable because they cover different periods.
    That's a bit rubbish. I take back my previous assertion.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,419
    "A vote of confidence in Boris Johnson over lockdown parties in Downing Street is inevitable, a senior Tory MP has suggested.

    Tobias Ellwood, chairman of the defence select committee, said that the prime minister was facing a “steady trickle” of resignations and letters of no confidence." (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/partygate-no-confidence-vote-in-boris-johnson-is-inevitable-says-senior-conservative-gfqml8d0j
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,127
    kle4 said:

    MalcolmDunn said:

    Poor France. A worse choice of leader than Britain had in 2019 or the US had in 2020.

    IDK, Macron doesn't seem that bad.
    You were swayed by the unbuttoned shirt? His policies are quasi-ineffective at best.

  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,834
    Fascinating insight into the scale of anger with @BorisJohnson https://twitter.com/glabsandra/status/1517533641072652289
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    MalcolmDunn said:

    Poor France. A worse choice of leader than Britain had in 2019 or the US had in 2020.

    What's he done to offend you? Too right wing?
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,572
    I can't understand why HY is desperately seeking to inflate Le Pen's chances and achievements in this election.

    It's not like she is the daughter of Franco or Pinochet or any of his other beloved Fascists.
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913
    edited April 2022
    kle4 said:

    MalcolmDunn said:

    Poor France. A worse choice of leader than Britain had in 2019 or the US had in 2020.

    IDK, Macron doesn't seem that bad.
    I'd have certainly backed Macron over Johnson, Trump or Corbyn and probably over Biden too. You have to bear in mind that Farage is probably Malcolm's idea of a top candidate.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914
    Roger said:

    It's misleading because the French would always do what's necessary to make sure the far right loses. If the poll had shown it level pegging Macron's vote would have gone up to cover it. I don't want to be the kiss of death but from day one I predicted somewhere between 60/40 and 55/45.

    I'd also like to hand over my position as worst predictor on PB to Moon Rabbit. Her performance has been nothing short of outstanding. From being 'absolutely certain' Macron wouldn't make the final two she went on to be even more certain that Le Pen would definitely win.

    It's tough being sure of yourself when polls are telling you something different but I salute her tenacity!

    She now thinks Macron has it, doesn't she?

    So, I'm going to put a few squid on Le Pen.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,127
    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    It's misleading because the French would always do what's necessary to make sure the far right loses. If the poll had shown it level pegging Macron's vote would have gone up to cover it. I don't want to be the kiss of death but from day one I predicted somewhere between 60/40 and 55/45.

    I'd also like to hand over my position as worst predictor on PB to Moon Rabbit. Her performance has been nothing short of outstanding. From being 'absolutely certain' Macron wouldn't make the final two she went on to be even more certain that Le Pen would definitely win.

    It's tough being sure of yourself when polls are telling you something different but I salute her tenacity!

    She now thinks Macron has it, doesn't she?

    So, I'm going to put a few squid on Le Pen.
    Doesn't ze think he's had it?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    SandyRentool said:

    I can't understand why HY is desperately seeking to inflate Le Pen's chances and achievements in this election.

    It's not like she is the daughter of Franco or Pinochet or any of his other beloved Fascists.

    I am not really, just pointing out she will clearly do better than last time with around 45%.

    If I was French I would have voted for Pecresse in the first round and Macron in the runoff
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,834
    📞Hello, is that the popcorn factory? I'd like to put in a bulk order... https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1517533125911498752
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited April 2022
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Also, don't forget that Sue Gray had the pictures and emails, and interviewed those involved.

    I'm going from memory but didn't he actually say that he "believed implicitly [at the time] that it was a work event" and not insist post-Gray that it was?

    Though either way, having a difference of opinion with the Police is not against the rules and is not a lie, nor should it ever be. We don't live in a Police State.

    If disagreeing with the Police were a crime/a lie then many thread headers by Cyclefree especially and others would be in hot water, but we live in a free society so that's thankfully not the case.
    It's a novel argument, which even Boris hasn't had the gall to try, that the Met are off their head and that the gatherings were in fact legal, when it is 100% obvious to everyone that some of them at least weren't, including most obviously Carrie's sweet little birthday cake event. Boris isn't using that argument because there's not a snowflake's chance in hell of voters falling for it.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914
    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Final Atlas poll also out and has it Macron 53% and Le Pen 47%. Ifop has it Macron 55% and Le Pen 45%.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522363310505984?s=20&t=iRw4AyyTYd6pZ9ZF1EgRfg
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522358147465216?t=Jj_LqMKGYEA1flsbVuFnaw&s=19


    Either way it will still be a much closer runoff than 2017, even if Macron is still likely re elected

    Very few politicians do better running for re-election. It's no real surprise that Macron is polling less well than he did first time around.
    Bush Jr, Clinton, Reagan all did better second time around.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    rcs1000 said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Final Atlas poll also out and has it Macron 53% and Le Pen 47%. Ifop has it Macron 55% and Le Pen 45%.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522363310505984?s=20&t=iRw4AyyTYd6pZ9ZF1EgRfg
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522358147465216?t=Jj_LqMKGYEA1flsbVuFnaw&s=19


    Either way it will still be a much closer runoff than 2017, even if Macron is still likely re elected

    Very few politicians do better running for re-election. It's no real surprise that Macron is polling less well than he did first time around.
    Bush Jr, Clinton, Reagan all did better second time around.
    France is different, though.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,127
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Final Atlas poll also out and has it Macron 53% and Le Pen 47%. Ifop has it Macron 55% and Le Pen 45%.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522363310505984?s=20&t=iRw4AyyTYd6pZ9ZF1EgRfg
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522358147465216?t=Jj_LqMKGYEA1flsbVuFnaw&s=19


    Either way it will still be a much closer runoff than 2017, even if Macron is still likely re elected

    Very few politicians do better running for re-election. It's no real surprise that Macron is polling less well than he did first time around.
    Bush Jr, Clinton, Reagan all did better second time around.
    France is different, though.
    Sounds better in French.

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    rcs1000 said:

    MalcolmDunn said:

    Poor France. A worse choice of leader than Britain had in 2019 or the US had in 2020.

    While I'm not a fan of his instinctive Anglophobia (and his behaviour with the AZ vaccine was disgraceful), he has done what no other French leader has done, and actually made some substantive changes to (a) labour market flexibility, (b) pensions, and (c) civil service employment. These have all been extremely unpopular (hence the gilets jaunes), but they were absolutely necessary and he pushed them through against domestic opposition where other leaders folded at the sight of street protests.
    Yes, he's been a good president overall, despite various gaffes and his irritating style.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,572
    HYUFD said:

    SandyRentool said:

    I can't understand why HY is desperately seeking to inflate Le Pen's chances and achievements in this election.

    It's not like she is the daughter of Franco or Pinochet or any of his other beloved Fascists.

    I am not really, just pointing out she will clearly do better than last time with around 45%.

    If I was French I would have voted for Pecresse in the first round and Macron in the runoff
    Fair enough. Good to know that there are some elections in which we would be voting for the same candidate.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2022
    I presume it must be the mental toll of being linked to Putin regime being too much for them....

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10743649/Mystery-FOUR-suspicious-suicides-Russian-gas-executives-linked-Putin.html
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,200
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I presume it must be the mental toll of being linked to Putin regime being too much for them....

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10743649/Mystery-FOUR-suspicious-suicides-Russian-gas-executives-linked-Putin.html

    Everyone is committing suicide and everything is exploding/burning to the ground.... WTF?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    📞Hello, is that the popcorn factory? I'd like to put in a bulk order... https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1517533125911498752

    Is that it? It is quite tame "criticism" really.

    https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1517537327219884033?s=20&t=XNW74577gncOFJmuScpq3A

    I suppose Moron and Farage knocking lumps out of one another is quite funny, but all a bit pathetic really.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2022
    Malmesbury said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I presume it must be the mental toll of being linked to Putin regime being too much for them....

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10743649/Mystery-FOUR-suspicious-suicides-Russian-gas-executives-linked-Putin.html

    Everyone is committing suicide and everything is exploding/burning to the ground.... WTF?
    Its a total mystery like UFOs....
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    ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scott_xP said:

    📞Hello, is that the popcorn factory? I'd like to put in a bulk order... https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1517533125911498752

    Is that it? It is quite tame "criticism" really.

    https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1517537327219884033?s=20&t=XNW74577gncOFJmuScpq3A

    I suppose Moron and Farage knocking lumps out of one another is quite funny, but all a bit pathetic really.
    Piers Morgan calling anyone a "treacherous disingenuous little snake" is beyond "quite" funny, to be fair.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,072
    Roger said:

    MalcolmDunn said:

    Poor France. A worse choice of leader than Britain had in 2019 or the US had in 2020.

    What's he done to offend you? Too right wing?
    It's interesting to ponder the root of anti-Macron sentiment over here. If you're left wing it makes sense - the guy is a centre right politician who forces leftist voters to vote for him to keep the far right out. That's annoying. But most of it seems to come from people who are themselves well right of centre in their politics. So I conclude it's not about his politics it's about the man. But what about the man? I'm not sure, and won't pretend to be, but I sense it might have something to do with him being French.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    "One of the most brilliant scientists in the world"

    https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1517534079071178752?s=20&t=XNW74577gncOFJmuScpq3A

    With him and Owen Jones endorsing definitely giving it a pass.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,049
    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    MalcolmDunn said:

    Poor France. A worse choice of leader than Britain had in 2019 or the US had in 2020.

    IDK, Macron doesn't seem that bad.
    I'd have certainly backed Macron over Johnson, Trump or Corbyn and probably over Biden too. You have to bear in mind that Farage is probably Malcolm's idea of a top candidate.
    Biden's a much better leader - and person - than "quasi-effective" Macron.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    MalcolmDunn said:

    Poor France. A worse choice of leader than Britain had in 2019 or the US had in 2020.

    What's he done to offend you? Too right wing?
    It's interesting to ponder the root of anti-Macron sentiment over here. If you're left wing it makes sense - the guy is a centre right politician who forces leftist voters to vote for him to keep the far right out. That's annoying. But most of it seems to come from people who are themselves well right of centre in their politics. So I conclude it's not about his politics it's about the man. But what about the man? I'm not sure, and won't pretend to be, but I sense it might have something to do with him being French.
    He's extremely pro EU and there's nothing the right wing on here desire as much as the collapse of the EU. A Le Pen victory would be No 10's dream.
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913
    rcs1000 said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Final Atlas poll also out and has it Macron 53% and Le Pen 47%. Ifop has it Macron 55% and Le Pen 45%.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522363310505984?s=20&t=iRw4AyyTYd6pZ9ZF1EgRfg
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522358147465216?t=Jj_LqMKGYEA1flsbVuFnaw&s=19


    Either way it will still be a much closer runoff than 2017, even if Macron is still likely re elected

    Very few politicians do better running for re-election. It's no real surprise that Macron is polling less well than he did first time around.
    Bush Jr, Clinton, Reagan all did better second time around.
    That's very few in my book. Most politicians go backwards after a period in office when they are defending a record
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,834
    Paging any Tory MP that can read a poll...

    https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1517539997213200384 https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1517540229992824833/photo/1
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,834
    This is what Boris Johnson said of BYOB event:

    “When I went out into that garden I thought that I was attending a work event.”

    Reports that 30/40 people turned up, incl PM & wife Carrie who drank G&T & brought friends fr outside No 10, & there were tables laden w food & drinks.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1517539336614563847
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    MalcolmDunnMalcolmDunn Posts: 139
    Wasn't Drevi Sidhar the complete numpty who suggested families have their Christmas lunch in separate rooms to avoid covid?
    Don't think this book is going to be a best seller.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scott_xP said:

    📞Hello, is that the popcorn factory? I'd like to put in a bulk order... https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1517533125911498752

    Is that it? It is quite tame "criticism" really.

    https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1517537327219884033?s=20&t=XNW74577gncOFJmuScpq3A

    I suppose Moron and Farage knocking lumps out of one another is quite funny, but all a bit pathetic really.
    A noxious wrestling match between two snakes
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I see the GOP in Florida are currently passing laws to target Disney because *checks notes* Disney engaged in speech the GOP didn't approve of.

    And the end result will be in pushing up some Floridian's local taxes massively

    https://twitter.com/mattdpearce/status/1517503905516892163
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,834
    ...
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,834
    For the third time this year, Britons trust the Labour Party more than the Conservative Party in ALL areas in which we poll.

    Britons trust the Labour Party most to support the NHS (40%), tackle poverty (38%), and manage housing (36%) https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1517443197538123779/photo/1
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,810
    edited April 2022
    MalcolmDunn said:

    Wasn't Drevi Sidhar the complete numpty who suggested families have their Christmas lunch in separate rooms to avoid covid?
    Don't think this book is going to be a best seller.

    NUMPTY
    PS: Thick cretinous Numpty really.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,477
    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Final Atlas poll also out and has it Macron 53% and Le Pen 47%. Ifop has it Macron 55% and Le Pen 45%.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522363310505984?s=20&t=iRw4AyyTYd6pZ9ZF1EgRfg
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522358147465216?t=Jj_LqMKGYEA1flsbVuFnaw&s=19


    Either way it will still be a much closer runoff than 2017, even if Macron is still likely re elected

    Very few politicians do better running for re-election. It's no real surprise that Macron is polling less well than he did first time around.
    Is that true?

    In US history, POTUSs who did better 2nd time around (=13)
    > Thomas Jefferson (1800 v 1796)
    > James Monroe (1820 v 1816)
    > Andrew Jackson (1828 versus 1824)
    > Abraham Lincoln (1864 v 1860 - debatable case)
    > Ulysses Grant (1872 v 1868)
    > William McKinley (1900 v 1896)
    > Woodrow Wilson (1916 v 1912 - debatable case)
    > Franklin Roosevelt (1936 v 1932)
    > Dwight Eisenhower (1956 v 1952)
    > Richard Nixon (1972 v 1968)
    > Ronald Reagan (1984 v 1980)
    > Bill Clinton (1996 v 1992)
    > George Bush the Younger (2004 v 2000)


    On the other hand, these did worse (=12)
    > John Adams (1800 v 1796)
    > James Madison (1812 v 1808)
    > John Q Adams (1828 v 1824 - debatable case)
    > Martin Van Buren (1840 v 1836)
    > Grover Cleveland (1888 v 1884)
    > Benjamin Harrison (1892 v 1888)
    > William Taft (1912 v 1908)
    > Herbert Hoover (1932 v 1928)
    > Jimmy Carter (1980 v 1976)
    > George Bush the Elder (1992 v 1998)
    > Barack Obama (2012 v 2008)
    > Donald Trump (2020 v 216)
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    Scott_xP said:

    This is what Boris Johnson said of BYOB event:

    “When I went out into that garden I thought that I was attending a work event.”

    Reports that 30/40 people turned up, incl PM & wife Carrie who drank G&T & brought friends fr outside No 10, & there were tables laden w food & drinks.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1517539336614563847

    I missed this last night:


    Channel 4 News
    @Channel4News
    · 22h
    "If it turned out the building you preside over... attracted more fixed penalty notices than any location or event in the history of lockdown - might that be a cause for resignation?"

    That was @GaryGibbonC4's question to Boris Johnson over lockdown parties at No 10.
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    Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    Interesting London polling.

    Exclusive: Labour set to maintain advantage over Tories in London as PM's personal ratings in capital drop

    Labour looks set to maintain their huge advantage over the Conservatives in London in next month's local elections as Boris Johnson's personal ratings in his former fiefdom drop sharply.

    An exclusive poll for Sky News by Opinium suggests Labour would win 45% of the popular vote compared to 25% for the Conservatives, enough to ensure Keir Starmer's party maintain most of their power base in the city halls in the capital.

    However this is a comparatively small advance on 2018 when London councils were last out for election and when Jeremy Corbyn's Labour was capitalising on Tory Brexit chaos meaning Labour won 44% of the vote and the Tories got 29%.

    This means they may not gain many extra seats compared to 2018 when the capital's voters last elected their councillors.


    Tories, LDs and Greens all look about right to me.

    Labour only up 1% in London on 2018 would be a somewhat poor result though but this is the most credible looking London local election poll that I've seen.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,219
    Malmesbury said:

    geoffw said:

    williamglenn said:

    Apparently another major fire in Russia, this time at TsNIIMash, a Russian rocket research centre.

    https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1517518447328079872

    Careless or unfortunate?

    What The Actual Fuck is going on?

    1) Is @Leon secretly using his spare flints to set fire to everything in Russia?
    2) Does the Ukrainian Neptune missile have a land attack mode?
    3) Is the Hereford Boat Club visiting Russian cathedrals?
    4) Have the Ukrainians been given a few semi trucks full of dollar bills by the Americans and are they using is to bribe Russians to set fire to their workplaces?
    Looks as if the original tweet reporting the fire has been deleted.
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    ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Gary_Burton said:

    Interesting London polling.

    Exclusive: Labour set to maintain advantage over Tories in London as PM's personal ratings in capital drop

    Labour looks set to maintain their huge advantage over the Conservatives in London in next month's local elections as Boris Johnson's personal ratings in his former fiefdom drop sharply.

    An exclusive poll for Sky News by Opinium suggests Labour would win 45% of the popular vote compared to 25% for the Conservatives, enough to ensure Keir Starmer's party maintain most of their power base in the city halls in the capital.

    However this is a comparatively small advance on 2018 when London councils were last out for election and when Jeremy Corbyn's Labour was capitalising on Tory Brexit chaos meaning Labour won 44% of the vote and the Tories got 29%.

    This means they may not gain many extra seats compared to 2018 when the capital's voters last elected their councillors.


    Tories, LDs and Greens all look about right to me.

    Labour only up 1% in London on 2018 would be a somewhat poor result though but this is the most credible looking London local election poll that I've seen.

    2.5% swing since 2018 seems rather lower than I would have expected.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    Scott_xP said:

    This is what Boris Johnson said of BYOB event:

    “When I went out into that garden I thought that I was attending a work event.”

    Reports that 30/40 people turned up, incl PM & wife Carrie who drank G&T & brought friends fr outside No 10, & there were tables laden w food & drinks.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1517539336614563847

    If Carrie brought friends then it cannot possibly have been a work event as Johnson tells us.

    Non-colleagues attendance must absolutely be the definition of a non-work event i.e. a social occassion.

    Not that a work "event" existed at the time as a vehicle for having a party with colleagues. There was no such arrangement in the laws.

    Lillico made an interesting point yesterday (based on Baker's speech): lockdowns went on far too long in part because those running the country were not actually effected by them so they had no idea how depressed and miserable people were becoming. They basically carried on as normal except the pub was closed.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited April 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    It's misleading because the French would always do what's necessary to make sure the far right loses. If the poll had shown it level pegging Macron's vote would have gone up to cover it. I don't want to be the kiss of death but from day one I predicted somewhere between 60/40 and 55/45.

    I'd also like to hand over my position as worst predictor on PB to Moon Rabbit. Her performance has been nothing short of outstanding. From being 'absolutely certain' Macron wouldn't make the final two she went on to be even more certain that Le Pen would definitely win.

    It's tough being sure of yourself when polls are telling you something different but I salute her tenacity!

    She now thinks Macron has it, doesn't she?

    So, I'm going to put a few squid on Le Pen.
    Make it lots and lots of quids for Macron and you can leave the gaudy west coast of the US for new pastures on the beautiful shoreline of the Mediterranean.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,834
    rottenborough said:

    They basically carried on as normal except the pub was closed.

    But they could still fill their wine suitcase
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Final Atlas poll also out and has it Macron 53% and Le Pen 47%. Ifop has it Macron 55% and Le Pen 45%.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522363310505984?s=20&t=iRw4AyyTYd6pZ9ZF1EgRfg
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522358147465216?t=Jj_LqMKGYEA1flsbVuFnaw&s=19


    Either way it will still be a much closer runoff than 2017, even if Macron is still likely re elected

    When he is elected, not if
    A secondary target for Macron would be to win the election without having to rely on votes from the Paris area. If it's 55/45 he'll probably do that. If it's 52/48 maybe not.
    In the first round Le Pen won most regions outside Paris
    As she did in 2017: https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2017/apr/23/french-presidential-election-results-2017-latest
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,219
    Labour has won the race to stick an election leaflet through my door. They want me to vote for all three Labour candidates, which seems like a statement of the bleeding obvious but perhaps something went wrong last time.
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    NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I presume it must be the mental toll of being linked to Putin regime being too much for them....

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10743649/Mystery-FOUR-suspicious-suicides-Russian-gas-executives-linked-Putin.html

    There is strong statistical evidence for copy cat suicides triggered by the imitation of peers, on the other hand they may not be suicides and someone is sending a warning (against Putin?)...
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,137
    Biden polling remains dire.

    He cannot run again on these kinds of numbers:



    https://thehill.com/news/administration/3459742-biden-job-approval-second-lowest-among-presidents-since-1950s-gallup/
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    MalcolmDunn said:

    Poor France. A worse choice of leader than Britain had in 2019 or the US had in 2020.

    What's he done to offend you? Too right wing?
    It's interesting to ponder the root of anti-Macron sentiment over here. If you're left wing it makes sense - the guy is a centre right politician who forces leftist voters to vote for him to keep the far right out. That's annoying. But most of it seems to come from people who are themselves well right of centre in their politics. So I conclude it's not about his politics it's about the man. But what about the man? I'm not sure, and won't pretend to be, but I sense it might have something to do with him being French.
    It's a snowball effect. A few who carry a torch for whoever is farthest to the right criticise him in vague/personal terms. A body of soft-right sheep hear the repetitious criticism and have their atoms excited by it but can't articulate why.

    One or two people actually have a clue and give a fuck about French politics and offer more specific criticism, but it's mostly heat with very little light on here with regards to Macron.
This discussion has been closed.