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What’s this doing to Johnson’s survival chances? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 3 in General
imageWhat’s this doing to Johnson’s survival chances? – politicalbetting.com

Please note I have COVID and my contributions to the site will be very limited until I recover.

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,489
    First.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022
    Get well soon!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,489
    Hope COVID isn't too bad for you Mike.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,641
    Wishing you a speedy recovery, Mike.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022
    Here he goes.

    Contrite for about ten minutes!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393
    Best wishes Mike
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,723
    Get well, soon, Mike. Take it steady.
  • Keir makes a superb performance.

    Future PM.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,941
    Best wishes, Mike.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520
    All the best, Mike. Hope it clears up quickly.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,397
    Best wishes Mike. Please keep us informed as to how you are doing.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    Get well soon, but Covid is over. I'm sure I read that somewhere. Maybe it's just a bad cold...
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,775
    Speedy recovery Mike.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393
    Oh no. Ricky Ding Dong Burgon. And it was all going so well for Labour
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022
    Looks like Harper has fired the stating Harpoon in the next push to remove Boris.

    The Tory back benches are not lacking a spine if they prefer Boris to lead them into next election rather than Truss though are they. The most successful Tory in elections ever could wave his magic wand again?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,723
    Johnson's performance is less than stellar. "Yes, but Ukraine" sounds utterly moribund in this context, and the mood of the House would seem to agree.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,309
    Best wishes to Mike for a swift recovery.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,544
    Conservative benches giving excellent impersonation, of supporters of sports team that's getting hammered.

    BTW, is Right Hon. Nadine Dorries doing her daily wordle via her cellphone?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    To précis Johnson's apologia ...
    "It didn't occur to me that my own rules applied to me - and therefore I am even more determined to cling on to office."
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783
    Feel better soon, Mike.
  • https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1516455891545083912

    Priti Patel couldn't argue her way out of a plastic bag
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    Nigelb said:

    To précis Johnson's apologia ...
    "It didn't occur to me that my own rules applied to me - and therefore I am even more determined to cling on to office."

    ''It's precisely because I cheated on you with your sister that I now feel an even greater sense of responsibility to fulfill the promises I made on our wedding day''
    https://twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/status/1516448667653361675
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,734
    Get well soon OGH
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Scott_xP said:

    Get well soon, but Covid is over. I'm sure I read that somewhere. Maybe it's just a bad cold...

    Everything before the but...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,544
    Sorry you're sick with the crud, OGH. Get well soonest.

    BTW, if you care to share (and you may well not) any idea how you got it? Am personally very thankful I was able to get my 2nd booster (Pf) couple weeks ago.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    All the best, Mike.
    I'm assuming you already have a PulseOx device , but if not, please get one ASAP.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,328
    iPlayer is completely useless trying to go back to the start of the statement.

    So I'm watching it on Sky News on YouTube.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,492
    Not quite the canal view I hoped for, but I can’t really complain for €40 a night! Really nice little apartment though, and only about 200 yards from the beach
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393
    Angela Eagle - "why is the PM holding himself to lower standards than he holds others" - referring to Matt Hancock and Allegra Stratton.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,530
    BBC reporting Mark Harper has put in a no confidence letter to Brady.

    Hmmn.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393
    Have to ask if some of these Tory MPs really think their colon-licking will go down well. Steve Baker's tongue had come out of Boris's nose then.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804

    Not quite the canal view I hoped for, but I can’t really complain for €40 a night! Really nice little apartment though, and only about 200 yards from the beach

    Whereabouts are you?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,544
    . . . meanwhile back at the ranch . . .

    Politico Forecast 2022 - We rated every race in play in 2022.

    https://www.politico.com/2022-election/race-forecasts-ratings-and-predictions/
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393
    Fabricant sounds as drunk as Oliver Reed on a chatshow sofa
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,171
    The roostertail on the back of Fabricant's Barnet. Extraordinary.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994

    Have to ask if some of these Tory MPs really think their colon-licking will go down well. Steve Baker's tongue had come out of Boris's nose then.

    Beats getting the D. Ross treatment.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,913
    Not sure even Johnson could survive a second FPN.

    Given the bar was set quite low for the first notice it would be extraordinary if he didn’t receive at least one more for what seem on the face of it more obvious breaches.
  • Strong performances from left wing Labour MPs such as Burgon in the chamber. I don't understand all this faux outrage about Johnson, everybody on here who voted for the Tories in 2019 should be deeply shamed of themselves when Corbyn was the better option.

    No, Corbyn and Johnson were just as bad as each other.

    We should all be ashamed for voting for either.
  • Does anyone remember the PB Tories trust saying that no parties took place
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,723

    Fabricant sounds as drunk as Oliver Reed on a chatshow sofa

    'My goodness, he sounds "After Dark" pissed.'
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,171
    Edward Leigh

    Fucking hell
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,309
    nico679 said:

    Not sure even Johnson could survive a second FPN.

    Given the bar was set quite low for the first notice it would be extraordinary if he didn’t receive at least one more for what seem on the face of it more obvious breaches.

    Nah, he's going nowhere.

    No way the PCP can muster up the courage to vonc him.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,775
    Nigelb said:

    All the best, Mike.
    I'm assuming you already have a PulseOx device , but if not, please get one ASAP.

    Great advice that. Got mine here.
  • Johnson is Gordon Brown 2.0, he will lead the Tories into the next GE
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,347

    Strong performances from left wing Labour MPs such as Burgon in the chamber. I don't understand all this faux outrage about Johnson, everybody on here who voted for the Tories in 2019 should be deeply shamed of themselves when Corbyn was the better option.

    No, Corbyn and Johnson were just as bad as each other.

    We should all be ashamed for voting for either.
    I’m not ashamed. Having voted remain I was horrified by the behaviour of the 2017-2019 parliament. I wanted the vote respected and Brexit delivered. Only a vote for Johnson gave that.
    He’s done, and needs to go ASAP, but I’m not ashamed of how I voted.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,793
    Take care Mike. Covid is a total bastard.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,775

    Strong performances from left wing Labour MPs such as Burgon in the chamber. I don't understand all this faux outrage about Johnson, everybody on here who voted for the Tories in 2019 should be deeply shamed of themselves when Corbyn was the better option.

    I don’t think the outrage was false about this.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,636
    All the very best, Mike.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,775

    Johnson is Gordon Brown 2.0, he will lead the Tories into the next GE

    Good evening CHB, hope you are well.

    I hope you are right as my money is on SKS as next PM
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    Looks like the Tory leadership challenge could be back on after the local elections, assuming the Tories do badly.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,810
    Reports of a successful Ukrainian counter-attack in Donbas.

    @michaelh992
    The Ukrainian military claims to have reasserted full control over Marinka after it carried out a counter-attack.


    https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1516445503071924228
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,324
    What if he gets more FPNs?

    All this apologetic rubbish looks shallow from Tory MPs
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,492
    Andy_JS said:

    Not quite the canal view I hoped for, but I can’t really complain for €40 a night! Really nice little apartment though, and only about 200 yards from the beach

    Whereabouts are you?
    Roses in Catalonia
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,237
    Wishing you a speedy recovery Mike
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,544

    Strong performances from left wing Labour MPs such as Burgon in the chamber. I don't understand all this faux outrage about Johnson, everybody on here who voted for the Tories in 2019 should be deeply shamed of themselves when Corbyn was the better option.

    Welcome!

    However, bringing up the Toxic Yard Gnome at this juncture, is just a fancy way of throwing BoJo a lifeline.

    Granted, a frayed, decayed, rotten lifeline. Still, best to let him flounder & drown on his own sea of lies.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,775

    Strong performances from left wing Labour MPs such as Burgon in the chamber. I don't understand all this faux outrage about Johnson, everybody on here who voted for the Tories in 2019 should be deeply shamed of themselves when Corbyn was the better option.

    No, Corbyn and Johnson were just as bad as each other.

    We should all be ashamed for voting for either.
    The other option was the comical Jo Swinson.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,171

    What if he gets more FPNs?

    All this apologetic rubbish looks shallow from Tory MPs

    Well quite. And he hasn't tried to play a "other offences to be taken into consideration" spin on the apology, so he's gonna have to do it all over again and again and again
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 78,843

    Fabricant sounds as drunk as Oliver Reed on a chatshow sofa

    Keep it parliamentary - as tired and emotional as Oliver Reed on a chatshow sofa, please.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    I'm told No 10 is giving serious consideration to cancelling Boris Johnson's trip to India so he can attend Thursday's vote

    Not clear where they've landed - conversations said to be ongoing - but there are concerns the vote will completely overshadow trip


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1516460794942214144
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393
    kle4 said:

    Fabricant sounds as drunk as Oliver Reed on a chatshow sofa

    Keep it parliamentary - as tired and emotional as Oliver Reed on a chatshow sofa, please.
    Quite right and I withdraw the word "drunk". As Reed himself told Aspel, the jug he brought onto set just contained Orange Juice.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 78,843
    We often demand apologies, but are overquick to dismiss them when we get them, which it may be argued encourages people to just never give one.

    However, the nature of and context of an apology is pretty critical in whether it should be accepted - when it has to be extracted unwillingly, and is not accompanied with any acceptance of responsibility for one's actions (even if the words say otherwise), then that is a pretty significant indicator of whether to accept.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    Steve Baker's seat. I would pay good money to see this happen. https://twitter.com/BNHWalker/status/1516458485407432717
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,810
    Cicero said:

    Boris may be hiding behind "There is a war on", but the truth is that the UK is ninth in level of support for Ukraine in proportion to GDP, it is not the level that they pretend.

    https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/_processed_/3/0/csm_UST_Grafik2_Bilaterale-Hilfen_EN_6957ab61ce.png

    I need hardly say that Estonia is way ahead, but then the sense of urgency is growing ever stronger here.

    I don't think that graph is very reliable. For one thing "new commitments since February 24th" cuts out weapons from the UK that were not only committed but delivered before then. In addition, according to Zelensky's office, the UK is responsible for 47% of all charitable aid to Ukraine since the war started.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    Best wishes to OGH.
  • Taz said:

    Johnson is Gordon Brown 2.0, he will lead the Tories into the next GE

    Good evening CHB, hope you are well.

    I hope you are right as my money is on SKS as next PM
    Hey there Taz, doing okay here thank you.

    My money too!!!
  • How are you @Taz
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,937

    Conservative benches giving excellent impersonation, of supporters of sports team that's getting hammered.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHPOzQzk9Qo
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393
    Apparently "tax-dodging" is parliamentary language when referring to the entire cabinet but would be unacceptable if used in reference to the Chancellor.
  • Strong performances from left wing Labour MPs such as Burgon in the chamber. I don't understand all this faux outrage about Johnson, everybody on here who voted for the Tories in 2019 should be deeply shamed of themselves when Corbyn was the better option.

    No, Corbyn and Johnson were just as bad as each other.

    We should all be ashamed for voting for either.
    I’m not ashamed. Having voted remain I was horrified by the behaviour of the 2017-2019 parliament. I wanted the vote respected and Brexit delivered. Only a vote for Johnson gave that.
    He’s done, and needs to go ASAP, but I’m not ashamed of how I voted.
    I am ashamed
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,780
    Get well soon!
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,775

    How are you @Taz

    Good thanks, enjoying a lovely day.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,544
    Pungent pundit alert!

    Am shocked AND appalled by PM's flag pin that desecrates the flags of two great nations!!

    By cutting each in half before pairing them!!!

    Mr. Johnson, have you truly no shame? Like with Partygate?
  • glwglw Posts: 8,473
    edited April 19
    Is there anything more pathetic than listenting to a Tory backbencher defend the Prime Minister? Absolutely spineless to a man.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,823

    Oh no. Ricky Ding Dong Burgon. And it was all going so well for Labour

    Just when one thought there could me no one worse than Johnson, along comes Dickie Didogon.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 78,843
    glw said:

    Is there anything more pathetic than listenting to a Tory backbencher defend the Prime Minsiter? Absolutely spineless to a man.

    Watching pundits do it? At least the backbenchers have the excuse of backing their leader in the House, being part of the team.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,466
    edited April 19
    Scott_xP said:

    I'm told No 10 is giving serious consideration to cancelling Boris Johnson's trip to India so he can attend Thursday's vote

    Not clear where they've landed - conversations said to be ongoing - but there are concerns the vote will completely overshadow trip


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1516460794942214144

    The prime minister's conduct is interfering with his ability to focus on the job.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,544
    Roger said:

    Conservative benches giving excellent impersonation, of supporters of sports team that's getting hammered.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHPOzQzk9Qo
    Tories on green benches today do NOT look quite THAT cheerful . . .
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,560
    Very sorry to hear you have Covid, Mike. I hope you are only mildly affected and get over it soon. Kind regards.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,171
    Harper Brady letter on Guido. I think he is the first to publish the text rather than just the fact?
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,560
    One thing we can all agree upon. Fine apology from Boris today.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,171
    stjohn said:

    One thing we can all agree upon. Fine apology from Boris today.

    It will do for now, while we dream of prison sentence apology.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,544
    glw said:

    Is there anything more pathetic than listenting to a Tory backbencher defend the Prime Minsiter? Absolutely spineless to a man.

    Check out Hansard re: the Norway Debate, May 1940.

    Plenty of brown-nosery back then too. But also fact that (with exception of Lloyd George) all the most effective speeches & interventions AGAINST Neville Chamberlain, were from HIS honourable friends, that is fellow Tories and other National Goverment MPs.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,333
    stjohn said:

    One thing we can all agree upon. Fine apology from Boris today.

    🤔.
  • glwglw Posts: 8,473
    edited April 19

    Cicero said:

    Boris may be hiding behind "There is a war on", but the truth is that the UK is ninth in level of support for Ukraine in proportion to GDP, it is not the level that they pretend.

    https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/_processed_/3/0/csm_UST_Grafik2_Bilaterale-Hilfen_EN_6957ab61ce.png

    I need hardly say that Estonia is way ahead, but then the sense of urgency is growing ever stronger here.

    I don't think that graph is very reliable. For one thing "new commitments since February 24th" cuts out weapons from the UK that were not only committed but delivered before then. In addition, according to Zelensky's office, the UK is responsible for 47% of all charitable aid to Ukraine since the war started.
    Not wanting to get into some sort of debate about who has done enough, but I will say this we shouldn't assume that every assistance given to Ukraine is public. There is almost certainly a lot more going on on the quiet. The US in particular is giving a huge amount of intelligence assistance, and possibly even active intelligence and electronic warfare operations to help Ukraine.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,659
    edited April 19
    Just checked out Starmer's speech. Quite strong stuff.

    More of that kind of thing during the GE campaign and he might even become Prime Minister.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,707
    Surely one more fine or illegal gathering revealed will see him gone?
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,560
    Foxy said:

    stjohn said:

    One thing we can all agree upon. Fine apology from Boris today.

    🤔.
    An apology re a fine. :smile:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,520

    Have to ask if some of these Tory MPs really think their colon-licking will go down well. Steve Baker's tongue had come out of Boris's nose then.

    Disappointing because Baker was doing a decent impression of a man of principle when all this broke.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 78,843

    Surely one more fine or illegal gathering revealed will see him gone?

    Why is that? What will have changed?
  • Johnson's apology was just awful. He's a liar and a fraudster.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994
    IshmaelZ said:

    Harper Brady letter on Guido. I think he is the first to publish the text rather than just the fact?

    Graun had it a while ago on their feed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 78,843
    stjohn said:

    Foxy said:

    stjohn said:

    One thing we can all agree upon. Fine apology from Boris today.

    🤔.
    An apology re a fine. :smile:
    I feel so stupid for not getting this until you explained it.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,707
    kle4 said:

    Surely one more fine or illegal gathering revealed will see him gone?

    Why is that? What will have changed?
    He hasn't declared them in this apology when he had the chance. A branch eventually snaps.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,707
    Cicero said:

    The first even faintly spring like day in Tallinn this year. In Kyiv it is wet and cold. Eastern Ukraine, somewhat similar, so less than ideal conditions for Russian heavy armour, but in fact there is growing concern here in the Baltic. Although Estonia is donating weapons and equipment on an extraordinary scale, helping tens of thousands of refugees, and leading in any way possible the aid to the beleagured Ukrainians, the situation is approaching critical.

    The likely fall of Mariupol will release several Russian batallions for the assault and the Ukrainian forces are fully stretched already. The fact is that simply not enough NATO kit has come to off-set the force of numbers that the Putinists are able to bring to bear on the Eastern front. If that front crumbles, then the forces withdrawn to Belarus would likely have another attempt to take Kyiv. Putin has not given up on any of his strategic goals.

    Boris may be hiding behind "There is a war on", but the truth is that the UK is ninth in level of support for Ukraine in proportion to GDP, it is not the level that they pretend.

    https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/_processed_/3/0/csm_UST_Grafik2_Bilaterale-Hilfen_EN_6957ab61ce.png

    I need hardly say that Estonia is way ahead, but then the sense of urgency is growing ever stronger here.

    You may have noticed that the works of George Orwell have essentially been banned in Russia, which, I think gives you a very clear sense of the nature of the crackdown going on there. If Putin is not comprehensively defeated now, then the outlook for the world is very bleak indeed. Sooner or later nukes will come into the equation and the only way to stop that is to be extremely firm in our dealings with the despicable regime in the Kremlin.

    A critical moment is coming and the gap between success and disaster is very slim indeed. Ukraine needs massive aid right now and Johnson is not stepping up to the plate to provide it. So less of the Daily Mail rubbish and more emergency assistance is needed immediately, or we will rue the consequences for years to come.

    The greatest danger is that people conclude that Russia has had its ass kicked. They could potentially turn things around by way of brutality and sheer force of numbers. There is a dangerous sense of a false victory.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,084
    Interesting thread....

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    In Q4 of 2021, they added 10x that number of subscribers and are worth $151,000,000,000.

    The key? World-class data science.

    Here's how they outfoxed the media industry 🧵

    https://twitter.com/marktenenholtz/status/1516386146321780737?t=C6hFnM356h6l25LdyaIH8w&s=19
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,987
    Sorry to hear you have the lurgy Mike hope you make a speedy recovery.
This discussion has been closed.