A Wakefield by-election looking a distinct possibility – politicalbetting.com
A Wakefield by-election looking a distinct possibility – politicalbetting.com
This afternoon’s conviction of the man elected at GE2019 as the Tory MP for Wakefield opens the possibility of there being a parliamentary by-election in the seat .
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The understatement is strong in this one.
tlg86 puts it bluntly, but it has to be a must win for Labour. That's said about a lot of by-elections, falsely, but this one is no out there chance.
He could then be replaced with someone with a pulse.
If this article is correct, if the sentence is more than a year the seat is vacated notwithstanding any appeals:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-61031276
"In an interview with Channel 4 News, Ahmad Khan attributed his success during the election to "Islington Remainers" who had branded Leave voters "stupid, uneducated, racist or wrong"."
"Disqualification of certain offenders for membership of the House of Commons.
A person found guilty of one or more offences (whether before or after the passing of this Act and whether in the United Kingdom or elsewhere), and sentenced or ordered to be imprisoned or detained indefinitely or for more than one year, shall be disqualified for membership of the House of Commons while detained anywhere in the British Islands or the Republic of Ireland in pursuance of the sentence or order or while unlawfully at large at a time when he would otherwise be so detained."
which seems to me to bite immediately unless you are released on bail pending appeal (dunno if that happens).
The list of MPs actually imprisoned seems low, but of course most don't get that far now.
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN04594/SN04594.pdf
Not going to see this very often
David Weitzmann
Stoke Newington
12 months (quashed)
Unlawful supply of toilet preparations (lipstick)
In a sign of President Putin’s fury over the failures of the invasion, about 150 Federal Security Bureau (FSB) officers have been dismissed, including some who have been arrested.
All of those ousted were employees of the Fifth Service, a division set up in 1998, when Putin was director of the FSB to carry out operations in the countries of the former Soviet Union with the aim of keeping them within Russia’s orbit.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/putin-purges-150-fsb-agents-in-response-to-russias-botched-war-with-ukraine-lf9k6tn6g
It's Coming Home
70 years of hurt etc
That wasn't quite true. She said the vote had emboldened people who were thick and racist.
But it was something of a distinction without a difference.
I'll be surprised if this isn't a custodial sentence > a year. Not helped by the fact that he didn't plead guilty and took it to trial.
https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/rape-and-sexual-offences-chapter-7-key-legislation-and-offences
The normal playbook so far seems to be don't resign so you keep the benefits as long as possible, doesn't it, and appeal the sentence?
There is also the matter that he gets auto-defenestrated if the prison sentence is more than 12 months, I think.
How many cases do we have of ultimate defenestration? Fiona wotsit, Chris Davies. And Claudia Webbe who is currently in play, as she has appealed her conviction.
And there's nearly a football team of MPs currently suspended from their Party Whip, afaics, for various less serious reasons.
The dividing line seems to be "found guilty by a court". So I'd say that Imran Khan will be a goner by one means or another.
"Accused of" or "Subject to a Parliamentary Investigation" people don't seem to get unseated.
I'd like to think I'd make a good MP. I don't have a particular love of money, and no particular ideology (aside from a general feeling of let people be what they want to be, as long as they do not hurt others.)
But there is no way I'd ever become an MP. And for that reason I have an instinctive admiration for those who put themselves forward for the role. But I do fear that it does attract an above-average proportion of ner-do-wells on either side of the political divide. It's a power thing.
(*) Of KLF fame.
Interesting to see how party's left-wing and green backers react to Starmer urging clamp down on activists
They will hold their noses and wait for Labour to regain power. Then strike. Or try to.
May be wrong. Just my take.
I don't know if they closed that loophole yet or not, but given Rees-Mogg was the one responding, and his record on trying to prevent MPs of his own side being punished, I doubt it.
Tory MPs Crispin Blunt and Sir Peter Bottomley, the Father of the Commons, attended court on Monday, while a third, Adam Holloway, earlier provided a character statement used as part of Khan's defence case.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/04/11/tory-mp-imran-ahmad-khan-found-guilty-sexually-assaulting-15/
I think it is the change to professional politics - once upon a time, you got to a certain level of success in normal life, and then became an MP.
Now it is a profession that pays fairly poorly for a London job for a graduate, though the pension arrangements are very nice. Add in the stupid pie throwing - if you are really talented and in London, there are jobs where you could be on £250k without the whole political bullshit.
So politics gets the second rate and the weirdos.
Labour after decades of Old Labour dereliction of duty In West Yorkshire are absolutely detested outside inner Leeds and inner Bradford.
I have it as an easy Tory hold.
When a protest interferes with ordinary people going about their lawful business, it stops being "peaceful".
Oh, for him?
Sadly, both those stories gained prominence after their deaths. Perhaps modern communications highlights wrongdoing much earlier, making it harder to hide evil until after their deaths.
But basically: politics is power. People attracted to power will gravitate towards it. Including those who want power in a bad way, e.g. over individuals. Also, in the old days parties would try to protect wrongdoers. As we have seen recently, that becomes harder.
Shows just how arrogant and stupid Owen Paterson was (and presumably still is), given there was no certainty he would be recalled, and his attempts to deflect his guilt through sympathy for the personal tragedy he faced would probably have worked, especially as his offence was the sort of thing most people don't care about.
Sorry Mark. Only kidding.
My guess is that SKS will be advised to start with a clean sheet, and he'll listen to that advice.
As I understand it, the recall kicks in if he gets a sentence of more than a year; otherwise a petition can be mounted - either possibility then takes effect without waiting for an appeal. If he successfully appeals but someone else has won in the meantime, the result is not overturned, though of course he could stand again in that case.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/keir-starmer-labour-corbyn-left_uk_6222078ee4b02186be203a49
More seriously, I know you may struggle to believe this, but some people are motivated by things other than financial reward. And that's true of most MPs, and various other professions such as teachers.
From the guardian (where else)
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/01/down-to-earth-just-stop-oil-protest
What's the Tory playbook on this? Do they take the hit quickly and try to move on before the GE, or do they play it long and encourage the culprit to exhaust the appeals process, dragging it out as long as possible?
Apparently it's either going to be an easy Conservative hold or a 12-point Labour win (which covers a pretty large area).
I'm still in shock having drawn on SANTINI on Saturday at 66s.
Well done.
And Leon doesn't live inside zone 1 - unless he's moved he lives in zone 2.
France’s far-right candidate could still defeat Macron, plunging Nato and the EU into turmoil
Gideon Rachman" [via google search]
https://www.ft.com/content/f1c99456-84b1-4193-b058-f72d0f738849
BTW (also FYI) once hitch-hiked & bused my way across that part of the world. Highly recommend. My favorite part was skirting the cliff edge above Giant's Causeway after touring Bushmills distillery and sampling the (strong) waters . . .
10 Apr Redfield & Wilton Strategies N/A GB 2,000
Con 34%
Lab 42%
LibDem 8%
SNP 4%
Green 5%
Reform 4%
Labour lead 8%
"This week Boris is master of all he surveys" Leon
I quite like TACARIB BAY in the Free Handicap but this is always a meeting to watch the races and take note of those shaping like future winners.
Tories fear Sunak tax row will hurt party at local elections
https://twitter.com/fteconomics/status/1513587781838290947
This is nothing to do with the eco/oil protests. I was responding to a comment earlier that any protest that interferes with 'ordinary people' going about their lawful business was ipso facto not peaceful, and by implication should be illegal. That's dangerous nonsense, though the current wretched government is trying to make protest harder.
Until December we had a trillion Tory poll leads in a row. Since then we have had a zillion Labour poll leads in a row. It is not possible to work out which will be the case when the election is called. ATM the Tories are doing their best to lose, and Labour are having a crack at being sane. The Labour left can, without breaking sweat, lose it for Labour simply by saying what they actually think in public.
If you ask: Which party deserves to win the next election the answer is (obvs), neither.
But if you ask which party is capable of losing the next election, the answer, equally obvs is 'Both'. Hence, more or less my suggestion of what the odds should roughly be.