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A Wakefield by-election looking a distinct possibility – politicalbetting.com

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,502
    Just read the Crispin Blunt statement.
    Blimey!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,651

    Keir Starmer in April 2019: "Climate change is the issue of our time, and as Extinction Rebellion protest showed us this week, the next generation are not going to forgive us if we don't take action. There's been lots of talk, now we need action"

    Keir Starmer today. Motorists were already being hammered by prices at the pump, and now millions can’t even access fuel. The government must immediately impose injunctions to put a stop to this disruption.

    What a complete idiot

    XR have succeeded quite a bit, there really have been more actions as a result of the wider environmental focus (how much down to them people will dispute), and parties have adopted much greener positions than even a few years ago. People think about it with decisions big and small.

    So there has been action, and Labour would definitely take plenty of actions if they were elected. Ergo, the same old disruptive protests are not as necessary as they might have been even a few years ago, and can be treated as more of a distraction or nuisance.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,651
    Sweden and Finland look set to join NATO, Ireland is still not interested in the slightest, so how about Austria? They seem to be the last of the big guns left besides Switzerland and the Russian leaning areas of the Balkans.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,425

    Ok are we even going to see a by-election in Wakefield? Reading the facts of the case, it doesn’t quite seem imprisonable, certainly if it’s a first offence.

    Sexual assault on a child? I'd be appalled if he does not get a custodial sentence.

    Crispin Blunt may be an idiot, but I think we should be very careful about punishing people who speak out for others, even if such speaking out seems v daft.

    The jury sat through a trial & passed judgement on Imran Ahmad Khan. This is an intervention from a law-maker defending a convicted child sex offender.

    Aside from anything else, it sends a terrible message to any victim yet to get justice in the UK - of which there are many


    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1513614205974466566
    Perhaps a crazy comparator, but was Chris Mullins sending a terrible message when he campaigned for the Birmingham 6?
    The difference was that Mullins was producing evidence about why it was a miscarriage of justice.

    Blunt isn't. Not yet anyway. He seems to be objecting to the introduction of similar fact evidence at the trial - hence his reference to "lazy tropes". But this would have been decided on by the judge and there are pretty strict rules on when such evidence can be adduced. So unless the judge has got this wrong as a matter of law, it is hard to see what else Blunt has got. We'll see what else the appeal brings out.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,663
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:

    Representative of Macron's campaign on Newsnight 'We have done a lot for this working class'

    Hpw ungrateful they are!

    I get that edgy Tories are gagging for Le Pen to win but not every banal statement from the Macron camp needs to be fisked.
    It was more the way she said 'this working class' rather than 'the working class'.
    That's a lot to put on a single word.
    By a presumably non-native speaker of English.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,651

    Keir Starmer in April 2019: "Climate change is the issue of our time, and as Extinction Rebellion protest showed us this week, the next generation are not going to forgive us if we don't take action. There's been lots of talk, now we need action"

    Keir Starmer today. Motorists were already being hammered by prices at the pump, and now millions can’t even access fuel. The government must immediately impose injunctions to put a stop to this disruption.

    What a complete idiot

    If Labour does the exact opposite of what you want it seems to go up in the polls.
    Nothing worse for a Labour leader than potentially winning - just means more opportunity to betray the movement.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,035
    kle4 said:

    Sweden and Finland look set to join NATO, Ireland is still not interested in the slightest, so how about Austria? They seem to be the last of the big guns left besides Switzerland and the Russian leaning areas of the Balkans.

    There's a Constitutional bar on Austria joining NATO and they have no dangerous border. They form a durable militarily neutral core to Europe with neighbouring Switzerland.

    Ireland is more likely.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,651
    In fairness one can hardly expect a Blunt to be nuanced.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,502
    edited April 2022
    A jury has found him guilty of sexual assault of a 15 year old. The idea he could remain an MP is ludicrous.
    He won't be able to visit a school in his constituency. That would be illegal.
    And it was 14 years ago is hardly a defence...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,231
    edited April 2022
    kle4 said:

    Sweden and Finland look set to join NATO, Ireland is still not interested in the slightest, so how about Austria? They seem to be the last of the big guns left besides Switzerland and the Russian leaning areas of the Balkans.

    Serbia is set to join the EU by 2025. Not sure about NATO.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,502
    What's more. Whinging and bitching isn't going to make a Labour gain less likely.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,739

    Keir Starmer in April 2019: "Climate change is the issue of our time, and as Extinction Rebellion protest showed us this week, the next generation are not going to forgive us if we don't take action. There's been lots of talk, now we need action"

    Keir Starmer today. Motorists were already being hammered by prices at the pump, and now millions can’t even access fuel. The government must immediately impose injunctions to put a stop to this disruption.

    What a complete idiot

    If Labour does the exact opposite of what you want it seems to go up in the polls.
    Well so far at every real Election it has done worse than even Corbyn.

    If you prefer to take solace from Mid term Polls against a Government in crisis you are in for a hell of a shock come 2024 GE IMO
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,502
    kle4 said:

    In fairness one can hardly expect a Blunt to be nuanced.

    You're beautiful.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Keir Starmer in April 2019: "Climate change is the issue of our time, and as Extinction Rebellion protest showed us this week, the next generation are not going to forgive us if we don't take action. There's been lots of talk, now we need action"

    Keir Starmer today. Motorists were already being hammered by prices at the pump, and now millions can’t even access fuel. The government must immediately impose injunctions to put a stop to this disruption.

    What a complete idiot

    If Labour does the exact opposite of what you want it seems to go up in the polls.
    Indeed. There’s a lucrative role in anti-consultancy for Owls, although he’d no doubt refuse to work with SKS.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    edited April 2022
    kle4 said:

    biggles said:

    biggles said:

    Crispin Blunt’s statement defending Imran Khan is leading to a mass resignation from the APPG on LGBT which he chairs - including @RhonddaBryant @StewartMcDonald and @joannaccherry

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1513636441770897416

    Worth saying that APPGs are a complete irrelevance. I’m sure you know that but just saying, because folk do confuse them with Select Committees.
    Be interesting to see who else resigns:

    https://www.appglgbt.org/members
    I would have lost money betting against Peter Bottomley being a member. Blimey.

    Edit - By which I mean good on him.
    Maybe he just joins anything. I seem to recall a story about him joining a new APPG, which was vital because they are required to have cross party support and he was the only non Labour figure.
    He's genuinely open-minded. He's by no means left-wing, but I remember him as often the only Tory willing to sign an EDM on a left-wing issue, because he happened to agree with it.

    But there's also some "oh, go on then, put me down" help of the kind you describe. I was chair of an all-party group on animal experiments, and my favourite Tory, Oliver Letwin, was appointed as a shadow Minister, which would have made us non-quorate for Tories. You're not supposed to be an APPG officer and a front-bencher, but he predicted, correctly, that nobody would notice.

    Most APPGs are not especially controversial - they're a common interest like waterways or adult education or fishing rather than a campaign. Some are very well organised and produce weighty reports which approach the standard of Select Committees. Many are just friendly places for people with a shared interest to talk about it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,035

    kle4 said:

    Sweden and Finland look set to join NATO, Ireland is still not interested in the slightest, so how about Austria? They seem to be the last of the big guns left besides Switzerland and the Russian leaning areas of the Balkans.

    There's a Constitutional bar on Austria joining NATO and they have no dangerous border. They form a durable militarily neutral core to Europe with neighbouring Switzerland.

    Ireland is more likely.
    To expand on Ireland, some within Fine Gael have suggested a citizen's assembly to consider what role Ireland should play in the future of European defence.

    This has been enough to provoke the President into restating the case for Irish neutrality.

    So there's a low-key testing of the water to see if the public are open to a debate.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,580

    kle4 said:

    Sweden and Finland look set to join NATO, Ireland is still not interested in the slightest, so how about Austria? They seem to be the last of the big guns left besides Switzerland and the Russian leaning areas of the Balkans.

    There's a Constitutional bar on Austria joining NATO and they have no dangerous border. They form a durable militarily neutral core to Europe with neighbouring Switzerland.

    Ireland is more likely.
    To expand on Ireland, some within Fine Gael have suggested a citizen's assembly to consider what role Ireland should play in the future of European defence.

    This has been enough to provoke the President into restating the case for Irish neutrality.

    So there's a low-key testing of the water to see if the public are open to a debate.
    This view of NATO isn't exactly uncommon in Ireland:

    https://twitter.com/ClareDalyMEP/status/1512144982316044289
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,739

    Keir Starmer in April 2019: "Climate change is the issue of our time, and as Extinction Rebellion protest showed us this week, the next generation are not going to forgive us if we don't take action. There's been lots of talk, now we need action"

    Keir Starmer today. Motorists were already being hammered by prices at the pump, and now millions can’t even access fuel. The government must immediately impose injunctions to put a stop to this disruption.

    What a complete idiot

    If Labour does the exact opposite of what you want it seems to go up in the polls.
    Indeed. There’s a lucrative role in anti-consultancy for Owls, although he’d no doubt refuse to work with SKS.
    Today's news that Keir approval rating is 11 points behind where Corbyn was at the same point in his leadership is a wake up call. Starmerites assumed that they needed to dump Jezza to win majority support. But it turns out lots of people really like him and his sensible policies

    SKSWNBPM
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    ….
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,651
    edited April 2022

    kle4 said:

    Sweden and Finland look set to join NATO, Ireland is still not interested in the slightest, so how about Austria? They seem to be the last of the big guns left besides Switzerland and the Russian leaning areas of the Balkans.

    There's a Constitutional bar on Austria joining NATO and they have no dangerous border. They form a durable militarily neutral core to Europe with neighbouring Switzerland.

    Ireland is more likely.
    To expand on Ireland, some within Fine Gael have suggested a citizen's assembly to consider what role Ireland should play in the future of European defence.

    This has been enough to provoke the President into restating the case for Irish neutrality.

    So there's a low-key testing of the water to see if the public are open to a debate.
    This view of NATO isn't exactly uncommon in Ireland:

    https://twitter.com/ClareDalyMEP/status/1512144982316044289
    The answer to war is not more war, it's peace

    Of course, it's so simple! I can see where everyone has been going wrong for 10,000 years.

    (Not that we haven't gotten better at deciding on peace, as a historical trend, but that kind of line is so simplistic it's just stupid)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,231

    Keir Starmer in April 2019: "Climate change is the issue of our time, and as Extinction Rebellion protest showed us this week, the next generation are not going to forgive us if we don't take action. There's been lots of talk, now we need action"

    Keir Starmer today. Motorists were already being hammered by prices at the pump, and now millions can’t even access fuel. The government must immediately impose injunctions to put a stop to this disruption.

    What a complete idiot

    If Labour does the exact opposite of what you want it seems to go up in the polls.
    Indeed. There’s a lucrative role in anti-consultancy for Owls, although he’d no doubt refuse to work with SKS.
    Today's news that Keir approval rating is 11 points behind where Corbyn was at the same point in his leadership is a wake up call. Starmerites assumed that they needed to dump Jezza to win majority support. But it turns out lots of people really like him and his sensible policies

    SKSWNBPM
    Your heart-throb Boris is on -29...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,587
    .
    Cyclefree said:

    Ok are we even going to see a by-election in Wakefield? Reading the facts of the case, it doesn’t quite seem imprisonable, certainly if it’s a first offence.

    Sexual assault on a child? I'd be appalled if he does not get a custodial sentence.

    Crispin Blunt may be an idiot, but I think we should be very careful about punishing people who speak out for others, even if such speaking out seems v daft.

    The jury sat through a trial & passed judgement on Imran Ahmad Khan. This is an intervention from a law-maker defending a convicted child sex offender.

    Aside from anything else, it sends a terrible message to any victim yet to get justice in the UK - of which there are many


    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1513614205974466566
    Perhaps a crazy comparator, but was Chris Mullins sending a terrible message when he campaigned for the Birmingham 6?
    The difference was that Mullins was producing evidence about why it was a miscarriage of justice.

    Blunt isn't. Not yet anyway. He seems to be objecting to the introduction of similar fact evidence at the trial - hence his reference to "lazy tropes". But this would have been decided on by the judge and there are pretty strict rules on when such evidence can be adduced. So unless the judge has got this wrong as a matter of law, it is hard to see what else Blunt has got. We'll see what else the appeal brings out.
    FWIW, on the reported facts, Blunt’s intervention seems deeply ill advised, and his judgment awry.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,739
    Rachel Reeves
    @RachelReevesMP
    .
    @Keir_Starmer
    is right.

    I presume she means wing
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,587
    kle4 said:

    In fairness one can hardly expect a Blunt to be nuanced.

    On the contrary, his niece is quite a subtle actress whose performances are very much so.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,580
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Sweden and Finland look set to join NATO, Ireland is still not interested in the slightest, so how about Austria? They seem to be the last of the big guns left besides Switzerland and the Russian leaning areas of the Balkans.

    There's a Constitutional bar on Austria joining NATO and they have no dangerous border. They form a durable militarily neutral core to Europe with neighbouring Switzerland.

    Ireland is more likely.
    To expand on Ireland, some within Fine Gael have suggested a citizen's assembly to consider what role Ireland should play in the future of European defence.

    This has been enough to provoke the President into restating the case for Irish neutrality.

    So there's a low-key testing of the water to see if the public are open to a debate.
    This view of NATO isn't exactly uncommon in Ireland:

    https://twitter.com/ClareDalyMEP/status/1512144982316044289
    The answer to war is not more war, it's peace

    Of course, it's so simple! I can see where everyone has been going wrong for 10,000 years.
    “The answer is not victory, it’s surrender.”
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,739

    Keir Starmer in April 2019: "Climate change is the issue of our time, and as Extinction Rebellion protest showed us this week, the next generation are not going to forgive us if we don't take action. There's been lots of talk, now we need action"

    Keir Starmer today. Motorists were already being hammered by prices at the pump, and now millions can’t even access fuel. The government must immediately impose injunctions to put a stop to this disruption.

    What a complete idiot

    If Labour does the exact opposite of what you want it seems to go up in the polls.
    Indeed. There’s a lucrative role in anti-consultancy for Owls, although he’d no doubt refuse to work with SKS.
    Today's news that Keir approval rating is 11 points behind where Corbyn was at the same point in his leadership is a wake up call. Starmerites assumed that they needed to dump Jezza to win majority support. But it turns out lots of people really like him and his sensible policies

    SKSWNBPM
    Your heart-throb Boris is on -29...
    You voted for him not me
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,651
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    In fairness one can hardly expect a Blunt to be nuanced.

    On the contrary, his niece is quite a subtle actress whose performances are very much so.
    I dont know, Mary Poppins wasnt a subtle performance...

    Good range though.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,122

    Keir Starmer in April 2019: "Climate change is the issue of our time, and as Extinction Rebellion protest showed us this week, the next generation are not going to forgive us if we don't take action. There's been lots of talk, now we need action"

    Keir Starmer today. Motorists were already being hammered by prices at the pump, and now millions can’t even access fuel. The government must immediately impose injunctions to put a stop to this disruption.

    What a complete idiot

    If Labour does the exact opposite of what you want it seems to go up in the polls.
    Indeed. There’s a lucrative role in anti-consultancy for Owls, although he’d no doubt refuse to work with SKS.
    Today's news that Keir approval rating is 11 points behind where Corbyn was at the same point in his leadership is a wake up call. Starmerites assumed that they needed to dump Jezza to win majority support. But it turns out lots of people really like him and his sensible policies

    SKSWNBPM
    Your heart-throb Boris is on -29...
    BJISPM....
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Keir Starmer in April 2019: "Climate change is the issue of our time, and as Extinction Rebellion protest showed us this week, the next generation are not going to forgive us if we don't take action. There's been lots of talk, now we need action"

    Keir Starmer today. Motorists were already being hammered by prices at the pump, and now millions can’t even access fuel. The government must immediately impose injunctions to put a stop to this disruption.

    What a complete idiot

    If Labour does the exact opposite of what you want it seems to go up in the polls.
    Indeed. There’s a lucrative role in anti-consultancy for Owls, although he’d no doubt refuse to work with SKS.
    Today's news that Keir approval rating is 11 points behind where Corbyn was at the same point in his leadership is a wake up call. Starmerites assumed that they needed to dump Jezza to win majority support. But it turns out lots of people really like him and his sensible policies

    SKSWNBPM
    Your heart-throb Boris is on -29...
    BJISPM....
    RSFUHCTBPM.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,334
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Cyclefree said:

    Ok are we even going to see a by-election in Wakefield? Reading the facts of the case, it doesn’t quite seem imprisonable, certainly if it’s a first offence.

    Sexual assault on a child? I'd be appalled if he does not get a custodial sentence.

    Crispin Blunt may be an idiot, but I think we should be very careful about punishing people who speak out for others, even if such speaking out seems v daft.

    The jury sat through a trial & passed judgement on Imran Ahmad Khan. This is an intervention from a law-maker defending a convicted child sex offender.

    Aside from anything else, it sends a terrible message to any victim yet to get justice in the UK - of which there are many


    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1513614205974466566
    Perhaps a crazy comparator, but was Chris Mullins sending a terrible message when he campaigned for the Birmingham 6?
    The difference was that Mullins was producing evidence about why it was a miscarriage of justice.

    Blunt isn't. Not yet anyway. He seems to be objecting to the introduction of similar fact evidence at the trial - hence his reference to "lazy tropes". But this would have been decided on by the judge and there are pretty strict rules on when such evidence can be adduced. So unless the judge has got this wrong as a matter of law, it is hard to see what else Blunt has got. We'll see what else the appeal brings out.
    FWIW, on the reported facts, Blunt’s intervention seems deeply ill advised, and his judgment awry.
    Imran Khan's brother is ironically Karim Khan QC, a prosecutor at the ICC. I am sure he can advise on any grounds for appeal
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karim_Ahmad_Khan
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Sweden and Finland look set to join NATO, Ireland is still not interested in the slightest, so how about Austria? They seem to be the last of the big guns left besides Switzerland and the Russian leaning areas of the Balkans.

    There's a Constitutional bar on Austria joining NATO and they have no dangerous border. They form a durable militarily neutral core to Europe with neighbouring Switzerland.

    Ireland is more likely.
    To expand on Ireland, some within Fine Gael have suggested a citizen's assembly to consider what role Ireland should play in the future of European defence.

    This has been enough to provoke the President into restating the case for Irish neutrality.

    So there's a low-key testing of the water to see if the public are open to a debate.
    This view of NATO isn't exactly uncommon in Ireland:

    https://twitter.com/ClareDalyMEP/status/1512144982316044289
    The answer to war is not more war, it's peace

    Of course, it's so simple! I can see where everyone has been going wrong for 10,000 years.

    (Not that we haven't gotten better at deciding on peace, as a historical trend, but that kind of line is so simplistic it's just stupid)
    This is why you need propoganda in wartime, and which the Ukrainians are brilliant at. Otherwise people will fall for stuff like this.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,023

    Keir Starmer in April 2019: "Climate change is the issue of our time, and as Extinction Rebellion protest showed us this week, the next generation are not going to forgive us if we don't take action. There's been lots of talk, now we need action"

    Keir Starmer today. Motorists were already being hammered by prices at the pump, and now millions can’t even access fuel. The government must immediately impose injunctions to put a stop to this disruption.

    What a complete idiot

    Why? Most people outside the big cities rely on driving cars.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,136
    Andy_JS said:

    Keir Starmer in April 2019: "Climate change is the issue of our time, and as Extinction Rebellion protest showed us this week, the next generation are not going to forgive us if we don't take action. There's been lots of talk, now we need action"

    Keir Starmer today. Motorists were already being hammered by prices at the pump, and now millions can’t even access fuel. The government must immediately impose injunctions to put a stop to this disruption.

    What a complete idiot

    Why? Most people outside the big cities rely on driving cars.
    I don't think BJO needs a coherent analysis to critique Starmer.

    Now if it had been Corbyn that had made what BJO considers to be conflicting statements it would have been the work of a genius.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,425
    One of the very first cases I worked on as a pupil barrister was a professional negligence case (the building of Furness Hospital in Barrow) and counsel for the other side was David Blunt, Emily's father and Crispin's brother. In another coincidence the solicitor's firm acting for the clients we were representing later merged with the firm where our own @AlastairMeeks later became a partner.

    David Blunt was rather handsome and quite kind to a very junior barrister working for the opposition. I was the only woman there and my clients were a bunch of horrible and rude sexists.

    So my first introduction to the Lake District was sitting in a Portakabin in a building site outside Barrow in late November as lawyers argued about whether the building was being built properly and whose fault it was.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,739
    Martin Lewis: ‘When people can’t afford food, they get angry – civil unrest isn’t far away’
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,345
    Ukraine.

    All the commentary is clear. Russian is focussing on the East & South East. The battlespace offers good advantages to the Russians and the classic heavy firepower & manouvere forces approach they like. In short Russia does have the tools and situation in its favour, if it uses them

    The East & South East campaign is, however, still a slog for Russia. Early gains haven't been followed by large breakouts but there is still a live chance of surrounding large Ukrainian pockets which could take out low10 000s of Ukrainian forces if they get trapped. The Ukrainians right now have no large scale offensive capability available and are in serious need of the battlefield heavy mobility hardware, blunt firepower and force multipliers. They have made some headway towards Kherson but that counter offensive has slowed.

    Strategically the Ukrainian's stated need is 100% on the button; mobility, depth strike (artillery and aircraft) and something to take the fight to the Russian Navy in the Black & Azov Seas. The West isn't as forthcoming as they should be here. Whilst you cant just pull a tank or Mig out of mothball overnight, they have had weeks to prep and haven't used the time as well as they could. What there hasn't been firm evidence of, though they'd very remiss not to be doing it, is active arms purchases/trades from/with non involved parties or the grey market. There is only so much ex Soviet gear knocking about in Eastern Europe. You can donate certain kit like AFVs trucks etc that don't need training on, but artillery, tanks etc. all a bit particular as is their ammunition. Therefore the wider market should have some interesting buyers & trades soon if the West is serious.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,878

    kle4 said:

    Sweden and Finland look set to join NATO, Ireland is still not interested in the slightest, so how about Austria? They seem to be the last of the big guns left besides Switzerland and the Russian leaning areas of the Balkans.

    There's a Constitutional bar on Austria joining NATO and they have no dangerous border. They form a durable militarily neutral core to Europe with neighbouring Switzerland.

    Ireland is more likely.
    To expand on Ireland, some within Fine Gael have suggested a citizen's assembly to consider what role Ireland should play in the future of European defence.

    This has been enough to provoke the President into restating the case for Irish neutrality.

    So there's a low-key testing of the water to see if the public are open to a debate.
    This view of NATO isn't exactly uncommon in Ireland:

    https://twitter.com/ClareDalyMEP/status/1512144982316044289
    So fucking done with Ireland. End free movement with Eire. Let them defend their own skies. Enough
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,345
    Ukraine:

    What some of the commentary has missed:

    The reasons why Russia withdrew from the immediate area around Kiev. Not enough progress, heavy losses. All fair explanations. They were also in serious danger of having significant forces trapped in a number of pincer movements, so got out to avoid a very high profile battlefield defeat.

    The collective West is settling in for an extended campaign with publicly announced and not so public expanded training missions for Ukrainian forces, which gives you an idea of how thinking has changed. There is a clear sense that Ukraine can win this war or at least, stop Russia from winning decisively.

    There is still a ground threat from the North & North West to Ukraine, be it incursions over the border, raiding forces and so on. There is also the danger of small group infiltration in the capital itself. This didn't work out in Phase 1 but the Russians love this kind of approach, its baked into their operational thinking. The wider threat also restricts redeployment to the East by the Ukrainians

    Whilst the idea of the Russians shutting off sea access to Ukraine and taking control of the wider Donbas is well trailed as an objective that could allow Putin to declare success, no one should be under any illusion that, if they can break out, the Russians will somehow not drive further West & North. They will, because they can.

    The previously successful approach of destroying the logistics tail is not as easy in the East & South East because the Russians properly hold territory through which they can send logistics. In the push to Kiev, they didn't secure the rear, the drove on and left contested ground behind them. The current position means tools to strike in depth are critical; aircraft, drones, artillery. You can see the pattern in terms of the requirements

    The Russians are now striking donated kit in storage depots suggesting they are finding better intelligence. They have found it difficult to interdict the stuff as it enters & transits Ukraine. Apart from the fact that they have trouble finding mobile targets at night time (this is the great Russian military, everyone) the impression is that they are concerned by the NATO air screen that just sits on the borders day in and day out. So far they don't have an interest in testing it. This is important, they aren't as gung-ho as the talking heads often claim, never were. The collective West should take the hint.

    The Russians, however, do learn so expect further adaptation.

    There are reports tonight of a suspected chemical weapons attack by Russian forces in Mariupol. Needs questioning. Chemical weapons use has been in the military doctrine since the Soviet era and therefore its deployment would not be a surprise. The case reported, however, doesn't appear to have an overwhelming battlefield justification other than as a shock weapon. Plus there are industrial chemical plants & storage in the contested area. Better to hold off judgement.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,425
    Crispin Blunt's claim that sexual assault of a child is "minor on any scale" is causing some consternation amongst MPs. (And fury among others.)

    Not least because in his furiously passionate statements Blunt failed to reveal two things:-

    1. Blunt never attended the trial when the prosecution evidence was being given, only when the defence case was.
    2. Khan tried to stop the press reporting details of the charges and the case.

    His attack on the Surrey Police and Crime Commissioner for raising concerns about women being put at risk of sexual assault if self-ID is permitted is also being brought up. Perhaps unfairly. Still coming across as someone who dismisses both child abuse and worries about other types of sexual abuse is not the best optics.

    What is it about Tory MPs these days that they seem determined to set fire to their own careers?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,231

    Keir Starmer in April 2019: "Climate change is the issue of our time, and as Extinction Rebellion protest showed us this week, the next generation are not going to forgive us if we don't take action. There's been lots of talk, now we need action"

    Keir Starmer today. Motorists were already being hammered by prices at the pump, and now millions can’t even access fuel. The government must immediately impose injunctions to put a stop to this disruption.

    What a complete idiot

    If Labour does the exact opposite of what you want it seems to go up in the polls.
    Indeed. There’s a lucrative role in anti-consultancy for Owls, although he’d no doubt refuse to work with SKS.
    Today's news that Keir approval rating is 11 points behind where Corbyn was at the same point in his leadership is a wake up call. Starmerites assumed that they needed to dump Jezza to win majority support. But it turns out lots of people really like him and his sensible policies

    SKSWNBPM
    Your heart-throb Boris is on -29...
    You voted for him not me
    And you will vote Tory in 2024 not me...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,425
    Cyclefree said:

    Crispin Blunt's claim that sexual assault of a child is "minor on any scale" is causing some consternation amongst MPs. (And fury among others.)

    Not least because in his furiously passionate statements Blunt failed to reveal two things:-

    1. Blunt never attended the trial when the prosecution evidence was being given, only when the defence case was.
    2. Khan tried to stop the press reporting details of the charges and the case.

    His attack on the Surrey Police and Crime Commissioner for raising concerns about women being put at risk of sexual assault if self-ID is permitted is also being brought up. Perhaps unfairly. Still coming across as someone who dismisses both child abuse and worries about other types of sexual abuse is not the best optics.

    What is it about Tory MPs these days that they seem determined to set fire to their own careers?

    There is something puzzling about his statement.

    If - as he appears to claim - he had relevant evidence that would have helped the defence, the obvious question is why the defence did not call him.

    It suggests that either he did not have any.

    Or it was irrelevant.

    Or that he would have made a terrible witness for other reasons. If this last, I wonder what those reasons might have been.

    Why - exactly - is Blunt so bothered by this man's conviction that he responds in such a way? Standing by a friend is decent. Dismissing sexual abuse of a child is most definitely not. Friendship may be one reason for Blunt's reaction. But I wonder if there is more to this than we have yet been told.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    https://www.twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1513646756638208001

    Russian forces kept a group of women and girls in a basement of a house for 25 days and repeatedly raped them. Nine of them are now pregnant. The police found five members of a family, including two women and a child, their bodies dumped and burned.

    These orcs are fucking monsters. War criminal scum that deserve to burn in hell. We need regime change in Russia. Stop all energy purchases. Give the Ukrainians modern tanks and jet fighters. Whatever it takes for Putin to end up strung from a lamppost.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,152
    biggles said:

    Strange article:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/11/melenchon-fans-in-his-paris-bastion-weigh-up-their-options

    The theme is in the title - Melanchon voters weighing up what to do, not quite sure. But every single one of the Melanchon voters interviewed says that of COURSE they'll now vote for Macron. I'm used to journalists deciding their theme before they do the interviews, but this is really extreme.

    I am fascinated by the inability of Sarkozy’s old party to grasp almost this whole agenda, but have no historic link to Nazis, and in fact link themselves to DeGaul. There’s clearly a French desire to vote some some of this agenda, just probably not from her.
    Watching French TV last night, a surprising theme iirc was that Melanchon had specifically failed to recommend support for Macron, but had instead said a very strong NON TO LE PEN.

    I think it is building on that event.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,152
    biggles said:

    Crispin Blunt’s statement defending Imran Khan is leading to a mass resignation from the APPG on LGBT which he chairs - including @RhonddaBryant @StewartMcDonald and @joannaccherry

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1513636441770897416

    Worth saying that APPGs are a complete irrelevance. I’m sure you know that but just saying, because folk do confuse them with Select Committees.
    APPGs are a bit of a black hole.

    They are an opportunity for external bodies to buy influence, and get their aligned MPs to put out "Parliamentary Reports".
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,023
    Cyclefree said:

    Crispin Blunt's claim that sexual assault of a child is "minor on any scale" is causing some consternation amongst MPs. (And fury among others.)

    Not least because in his furiously passionate statements Blunt failed to reveal two things:-

    1. Blunt never attended the trial when the prosecution evidence was being given, only when the defence case was.
    2. Khan tried to stop the press reporting details of the charges and the case.

    His attack on the Surrey Police and Crime Commissioner for raising concerns about women being put at risk of sexual assault if self-ID is permitted is also being brought up. Perhaps unfairly. Still coming across as someone who dismisses both child abuse and worries about other types of sexual abuse is not the best optics.

    What is it about Tory MPs these days that they seem determined to set fire to their own careers?

    Did he really say that? Unbelievable choice of words.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,587
    Harrowing film from hospitals under siege in this link.

    #Mariupol. The death came here under 🇷🇺 flag. Dozens of thousands civilians killed. 90% of buildings destroyed. 🇺🇦 defenders are surrounded. From the beginning we’ve been asking our partners for a chance - for tanks and jets. The world remains silent and watches genocide online.
    https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1513582796052307989
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,587
    Zelenskyy: Russia is afraid to admit that its policy towards Ukraine is wrong.
    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/04/10/7338692/
    …”They seized Crimea, and we are allegedly to blame. They destroyed normal life in Donbas, and we are allegedly to blame. They shot down a Malaysian Boeing, and we are allegedly to blame. They have been killing people and children on our land for 8 years, and we are allegedly to blame. They have destroyed the most powerful industrial region in eastern Europe, and we are to blame. They have ruined the lives of millions of people, and we are supposedly to blame. They have started a full-scale war against us, and we are allegedly to blame. They have already spent 2,000 missiles, countless air bombs, artillery shells, mines in Ukraine, and we are allegedly to blame. They tortured, killed on our land, and we are guilty. They deported hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, our children, but we are still to blame,"…
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 2022
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Crispin Blunt's claim that sexual assault of a child is "minor on any scale" is causing some consternation amongst MPs. (And fury among others.)

    Not least because in his furiously passionate statements Blunt failed to reveal two things:-

    1. Blunt never attended the trial when the prosecution evidence was being given, only when the defence case was.
    2. Khan tried to stop the press reporting details of the charges and the case.

    His attack on the Surrey Police and Crime Commissioner for raising concerns about women being put at risk of sexual assault if self-ID is permitted is also being brought up. Perhaps unfairly. Still coming across as someone who dismisses both child abuse and worries about other types of sexual abuse is not the best optics.

    What is it about Tory MPs these days that they seem determined to set fire to their own careers?

    There is something puzzling about his statement.

    If - as he appears to claim - he had relevant evidence that would have helped the defence, the obvious question is why the defence did not call him.

    It suggests that either he did not have any.

    Or it was irrelevant.

    Or that he would have made a terrible witness for other reasons. If this last, I wonder what those reasons might have been.

    Why - exactly - is Blunt so bothered by this man's conviction that he responds in such a way? Standing by a friend is decent. Dismissing sexual abuse of a child is most definitely not. Friendship may be one reason for Blunt's reaction. But I wonder if there is more to this than we have yet been told.
    I wonder if it has anything to do with this:

    To cries of 'shame' from Labour MPs, Mr Blunt, 50, said: 'It is also clear that there is a much greater strand of homosexuality than of heterosexuality which depends for its gratification on the exploitation of youth.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1307304/amp/Wife-traumatised-Tory-MP-Crispin-Blunt-admits-Im-gay.html

    Comments made before he came out.

    He might have made a poor witness for the defence.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    I have questions…
    1-how can he call this a “miscarriage of justice” on the basis of sitting through “some of the trial”?
    2- how can the verdict of an English jury be “an international scandal” with any “wider implications“?
    3- what evidence could he have offered as a former Justice Minister (presumably none or he would have been called)
    4- which “Victorian era” statute was relevant to the conviction?
    5-why? Just why would he think this statement sensible or appropriate?


    https://twitter.com/RoddyQC/status/1513733825385451522
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,577
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,587
    The reports of brutal rapes are widespread from every area occupied by Russia.
    Multiple reports: Russian soldiers gang rape Ukrainian women threatening them with guns and knives in front of their children. Among the most monstrous cases is the rape and murder of a 9yo girl by 11 Russian soldiers
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1512092791735734276

    What is notable if you read the linked article is the care Ukrainian authorities are taking in documenting crimes.

    I’m uncomfortable with the way such reports are called Ukrainian propaganda, as the word means by definition statements that are misleading.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The Jury decided who they believed. From the report the victim appears to have been the more credible witness, complaining contemporaneously and backed by his parents. Blunt did not hear that testimony.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Best dinner yet.

    I decided to stay at my hotel to eat. Well.. I didn’t really decide; I fell asleep after my beer earlier and woke up to not many options nearby. I was just in time to get into the hotel restaurant. I had to go for the set menu which worked out rather well.

    Started with beef carpaccio, onions and capers. The main course was mackerel and another white fish (the lovely Italian waitress and I couldn’t work out what it’s called in English even with the help of our phones) with black rice and a creamy mustard sauce. Dessert (which I’m still eating!) is a sort of chocolate granola with roasted pear, a rich chocolate mousse and mascarpone. I’ve been washing it all down with a rather splendid bottle of local Roussillon white.





    That looks like an excellent dinner

    Beef carpaccio, red onions and capers. Mmm. Deliciously simple

    Not sure about creamy mustard sauce AND mackerel? Two strong flavours there. But if it works it works!
    The mustard flavour wasn’t overpowering at all. Just enough to notice it.
    Do you mind if I ask which hotel you're staying at?

    I promise not to fly over and stalk you. I just love details

    You're in Banyuls, yes?
    I don’t mind at all! And you’d have to be quick to stalk me - I’m leaving first thing tomorrow and haven’t decided exactly where I’m headed yet.

    It’s called the Le Catalan, and yes in Banyuls. Its restaurant is Le Miradou.

    This is the hotel website https://www.hlecatalan.com/
    Nicely done.

    Checking TripAdvisor I see it has the "traveller's choice" mark, and they are often really reliable - it means you will get something good, whatever the price bracket. And the punters love the restaurant in the feedback

    I know nearby Collioure really well. We used to have weird family holidays there when I was but a lad. I loved the swim to the castle
    Hmm.. There’s a restaurant called Casa @Leon in Collioure!

    https://www.tripadvisor.com/Restaurant_Review-g187152-d1215984-Reviews-Casa_Leon-Collioure_Pyrenees_Orientales_Occitanie.html
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,587
    Reports of over a hundred thousand children forcibly deported to Russia.
    The reported forcible adoption would clearly breach Article II Section E of the Genocide Convention.

    Russia to fast-track adoptions of Ukrainian children 'forcibly deported' after their parents were killed by Putin's troops, authorities say
    https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-to-fast-track-adoption-of-deported-ukraine-orphans-kyiv-officials-2022-4
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,425

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Crispin Blunt's claim that sexual assault of a child is "minor on any scale" is causing some consternation amongst MPs. (And fury among others.)

    Not least because in his furiously passionate statements Blunt failed to reveal two things:-

    1. Blunt never attended the trial when the prosecution evidence was being given, only when the defence case was.
    2. Khan tried to stop the press reporting details of the charges and the case.

    His attack on the Surrey Police and Crime Commissioner for raising concerns about women being put at risk of sexual assault if self-ID is permitted is also being brought up. Perhaps unfairly. Still coming across as someone who dismisses both child abuse and worries about other types of sexual abuse is not the best optics.

    What is it about Tory MPs these days that they seem determined to set fire to their own careers?

    There is something puzzling about his statement.

    If - as he appears to claim - he had relevant evidence that would have helped the defence, the obvious question is why the defence did not call him.

    It suggests that either he did not have any.

    Or it was irrelevant.

    Or that he would have made a terrible witness for other reasons. If this last, I wonder what those reasons might have been.

    Why - exactly - is Blunt so bothered by this man's conviction that he responds in such a way? Standing by a friend is decent. Dismissing sexual abuse of a child is most definitely not. Friendship may be one reason for Blunt's reaction. But I wonder if there is more to this than we have yet been told.
    I wonder if it has anything to do with this:

    To cries of 'shame' from Labour MPs, Mr Blunt, 50, said: 'It is also clear that there is a much greater strand of homosexuality than of heterosexuality which depends for its gratification on the exploitation of youth.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1307304/amp/Wife-traumatised-Tory-MP-Crispin-Blunt-admits-Im-gay.html

    Comments made before he came out.

    He might have made a poor witness for the defence.
    Yes - but possibly not because of his opinions.

    What exactly was the counter-narrative he was trying to establish?

    And why was it so important to him?

    There is a possible answer. You can work it out.

  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,040
    edited April 2022
    Nigelb said:

    The reports of brutal rapes are widespread from every area occupied by Russia.
    Multiple reports: Russian soldiers gang rape Ukrainian women threatening them with guns and knives in front of their children. Among the most monstrous cases is the rape and murder of a 9yo girl by 11 Russian soldiers
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1512092791735734276

    What is notable if you read the linked article is the care Ukrainian authorities are taking in documenting crimes.

    I’m uncomfortable with the way such reports are called Ukrainian propaganda, as the word means by definition statements that are misleading.

    That’s not the definition of propaganda. It’s often used that way, and inferred as such, but it just means the organised dissemination of information, or that information itself. I want to a “Propaganda” exhibition at the British Library a few years ago and there was a whole section on the British government’s factual information campaign to prevent the spread of tuberculosis.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,587
    .

    The Jury decided who they believed. From the report the victim appears to have been the more credible witness, complaining contemporaneously and backed by his parents. Blunt did not hear that testimony.
    While I’m sympathetic to the rights of MPs to question what they believe are badly wrong verdicts, they must have justification for doing so.

    We need to wait for the full story to come out - Khan is reportedly seeking to appeal - but I’d be quite surprised if Blunt has not ended his career.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,587
    edited April 2022

    Nigelb said:

    The reports of brutal rapes are widespread from every area occupied by Russia.
    Multiple reports: Russian soldiers gang rape Ukrainian women threatening them with guns and knives in front of their children. Among the most monstrous cases is the rape and murder of a 9yo girl by 11 Russian soldiers
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1512092791735734276

    What is notable if you read the linked article is the care Ukrainian authorities are taking in documenting crimes.

    I’m uncomfortable with the way such reports are called Ukrainian propaganda, as the word means by definition statements that are misleading.

    That’s not the definition of propaganda. It’s often used that way, and inferred as such, but it just means the organised dissemination of information, or that information itself. I want to a “Propaganda” exhibition at the British Library a few years ago and there was a whole section on the British government’s factual information campaign to prevent the spread of tuberculosis.
    The dictionary definition:
    “information, especially of a biased or misleading nature, used to promote a political cause or point of view.”

    So you’re technically correct that it doesn’t have to be misleading, but the term carries that strong implication.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,577

    The Jury decided who they believed. From the report the victim appears to have been the more credible witness, complaining contemporaneously and backed by his parents. Blunt did not hear that testimony.
    Don’t get me wrong, I’ve not read anything about the case so don’t have a view on it. The jury will have heard the evidence and made up their mind - I’m just slightly surprised that you can get to “beyond reasonable doubt” when you are dependant on testimony without (presumably) corroborating evidence

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,577
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Crispin Blunt's claim that sexual assault of a child is "minor on any scale" is causing some consternation amongst MPs. (And fury among others.)

    Not least because in his furiously passionate statements Blunt failed to reveal two things:-

    1. Blunt never attended the trial when the prosecution evidence was being given, only when the defence case was.
    2. Khan tried to stop the press reporting details of the charges and the case.

    His attack on the Surrey Police and Crime Commissioner for raising concerns about women being put at risk of sexual assault if self-ID is permitted is also being brought up. Perhaps unfairly. Still coming across as someone who dismisses both child abuse and worries about other types of sexual abuse is not the best optics.

    What is it about Tory MPs these days that they seem determined to set fire to their own careers?

    There is something puzzling about his statement.

    If - as he appears to claim - he had relevant evidence that would have helped the defence, the obvious question is why the defence did not call him.

    It suggests that either he did not have any.

    Or it was irrelevant.

    Or that he would have made a terrible witness for other reasons. If this last, I wonder what those reasons might have been.

    Why - exactly - is Blunt so bothered by this man's conviction that he responds in such a way? Standing by a friend is decent. Dismissing sexual abuse of a child is most definitely not. Friendship may be one reason for Blunt's reaction. But I wonder if there is more to this than we have yet been told.
    I wonder if it has anything to do with this:

    To cries of 'shame' from Labour MPs, Mr Blunt, 50, said: 'It is also clear that there is a much greater strand of homosexuality than of heterosexuality which depends for its gratification on the exploitation of youth.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1307304/amp/Wife-traumatised-Tory-MP-Crispin-Blunt-admits-Im-gay.html

    Comments made before he came out.

    He might have made a poor witness for the defence.
    Yes - but possibly not because of his opinions.

    What exactly was the counter-narrative he was trying to establish?

    And why was it so important to him?

    There is a possible answer. You can work it out.

    @Cyclefree

    You may be right. I have no idea. But that’s a rather nasty insinuation unless you have evidence. You should know better than that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,587
    This article makes a good point. While their their leaders are wholly complicit in, and responsible for Russian soldiers’ crimes, through both deliberate policy, and wholesale absence of military discipline, the perpetrators also have moral agency.

    In the absence of moral direction from seniors, Russian soldiers made ethical decisions; they had agency. Some were shocked, and tried to help shield locals from worst of it. Too many of them chose evil. My dispatch from Yahidne, Chernihiv oblast.
    https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1513517606782873600
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,425

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Crispin Blunt's claim that sexual assault of a child is "minor on any scale" is causing some consternation amongst MPs. (And fury among others.)

    Not least because in his furiously passionate statements Blunt failed to reveal two things:-

    1. Blunt never attended the trial when the prosecution evidence was being given, only when the defence case was.
    2. Khan tried to stop the press reporting details of the charges and the case.

    His attack on the Surrey Police and Crime Commissioner for raising concerns about women being put at risk of sexual assault if self-ID is permitted is also being brought up. Perhaps unfairly. Still coming across as someone who dismisses both child abuse and worries about other types of sexual abuse is not the best optics.

    What is it about Tory MPs these days that they seem determined to set fire to their own careers?

    There is something puzzling about his statement.

    If - as he appears to claim - he had relevant evidence that would have helped the defence, the obvious question is why the defence did not call him.

    It suggests that either he did not have any.

    Or it was irrelevant.

    Or that he would have made a terrible witness for other reasons. If this last, I wonder what those reasons might have been.

    Why - exactly - is Blunt so bothered by this man's conviction that he responds in such a way? Standing by a friend is decent. Dismissing sexual abuse of a child is most definitely not. Friendship may be one reason for Blunt's reaction. But I wonder if there is more to this than we have yet been told.
    I wonder if it has anything to do with this:

    To cries of 'shame' from Labour MPs, Mr Blunt, 50, said: 'It is also clear that there is a much greater strand of homosexuality than of heterosexuality which depends for its gratification on the exploitation of youth.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1307304/amp/Wife-traumatised-Tory-MP-Crispin-Blunt-admits-Im-gay.html

    Comments made before he came out.

    He might have made a poor witness for the defence.
    Yes - but possibly not because of his opinions.

    What exactly was the counter-narrative he was trying to establish?

    And why was it so important to him?

    There is a possible answer. You can work it out.

    @Cyclefree

    You may be right. I have no idea. But that’s a rather nasty insinuation unless you have evidence. You should know better than that.
    I don't know. But there is something odd about his response. Happy to withdraw any insinuation.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited April 2022
    Crispin Blunt's sexual assault of a child is "minor on any scale" ...

    Disgusting. Odious. Illegal. Horrific.

    This is 1992-7 Redux.

    All we need is a Martin Bell. Maybe to stand against arsehole Crispin Blunt.

    (If my language gets fruity on this it's because I was assaulted and raped by a man as a child. They got sent down & then released at 50% of the tariff but my sentence has been a lifetime.)
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    The Jury decided who they believed. From the report the victim appears to have been the more credible witness, complaining contemporaneously and backed by his parents. Blunt did not hear that testimony.
    Don’t get me wrong, I’ve not read anything about the case so don’t have a view on it.

    And then you express a view on it :smiley:

    As you say, you weren't there, haven't read anything, so don't have a scoobies.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,587

    The Jury decided who they believed. From the report the victim appears to have been the more credible witness, complaining contemporaneously and backed by his parents. Blunt did not hear that testimony.
    Don’t get me wrong, I’ve not read anything about the case so don’t have a view on it. The jury will have heard the evidence and made up their mind - I’m just slightly surprised that you can get to “beyond reasonable doubt” when you are dependant on testimony without (presumably) corroborating evidence

    Without reading the trial transcript, you cannot assume no corroborating evidence. Also, from the short reports I’ve seen, Khan’s testimony appears weak and inconsistent.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,023
    Crispin Blunt must be very close to being suspended from the party.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,577
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Crispin Blunt's claim that sexual assault of a child is "minor on any scale" is causing some consternation amongst MPs. (And fury among others.)

    Not least because in his furiously passionate statements Blunt failed to reveal two things:-

    1. Blunt never attended the trial when the prosecution evidence was being given, only when the defence case was.
    2. Khan tried to stop the press reporting details of the charges and the case.

    His attack on the Surrey Police and Crime Commissioner for raising concerns about women being put at risk of sexual assault if self-ID is permitted is also being brought up. Perhaps unfairly. Still coming across as someone who dismisses both child abuse and worries about other types of sexual abuse is not the best optics.

    What is it about Tory MPs these days that they seem determined to set fire to their own careers?

    There is something puzzling about his statement.

    If - as he appears to claim - he had relevant evidence that would have helped the defence, the obvious question is why the defence did not call him.

    It suggests that either he did not have any.

    Or it was irrelevant.

    Or that he would have made a terrible witness for other reasons. If this last, I wonder what those reasons might have been.

    Why - exactly - is Blunt so bothered by this man's conviction that he responds in such a way? Standing by a friend is decent. Dismissing sexual abuse of a child is most definitely not. Friendship may be one reason for Blunt's reaction. But I wonder if there is more to this than we have yet been told.
    I wonder if it has anything to do with this:

    To cries of 'shame' from Labour MPs, Mr Blunt, 50, said: 'It is also clear that there is a much greater strand of homosexuality than of heterosexuality which depends for its gratification on the exploitation of youth.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1307304/amp/Wife-traumatised-Tory-MP-Crispin-Blunt-admits-Im-gay.html

    Comments made before he came out.

    He might have made a poor witness for the defence.
    Yes - but possibly not because of his opinions.

    What exactly was the counter-narrative he was trying to establish?

    And why was it so important to him?

    There is a possible answer. You can work it out.

    @Cyclefree

    You may be right. I have no idea. But that’s a rather nasty insinuation unless you have evidence. You should know better than that.
    I don't know. But there is something odd about his response. Happy to withdraw any insinuation.
    I fully agree it’s a weird response (and IIRC he has form) - may be it’s just a misplaced sense of loyalty to a friend?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Have the Conservative Party pressed the self-destruct button? Are they just weary of it all?

    I ask in all honesty because that was exactly how it felt in 1992-7. The fag end of an empire.

    Everything external is conspiring against them but they are not exactly helping their own cause, are they? (Rhetorical)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,425

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Crispin Blunt's claim that sexual assault of a child is "minor on any scale" is causing some consternation amongst MPs. (And fury among others.)

    Not least because in his furiously passionate statements Blunt failed to reveal two things:-

    1. Blunt never attended the trial when the prosecution evidence was being given, only when the defence case was.
    2. Khan tried to stop the press reporting details of the charges and the case.

    His attack on the Surrey Police and Crime Commissioner for raising concerns about women being put at risk of sexual assault if self-ID is permitted is also being brought up. Perhaps unfairly. Still coming across as someone who dismisses both child abuse and worries about other types of sexual abuse is not the best optics.

    What is it about Tory MPs these days that they seem determined to set fire to their own careers?

    There is something puzzling about his statement.

    If - as he appears to claim - he had relevant evidence that would have helped the defence, the obvious question is why the defence did not call him.

    It suggests that either he did not have any.

    Or it was irrelevant.

    Or that he would have made a terrible witness for other reasons. If this last, I wonder what those reasons might have been.

    Why - exactly - is Blunt so bothered by this man's conviction that he responds in such a way? Standing by a friend is decent. Dismissing sexual abuse of a child is most definitely not. Friendship may be one reason for Blunt's reaction. But I wonder if there is more to this than we have yet been told.
    I wonder if it has anything to do with this:

    To cries of 'shame' from Labour MPs, Mr Blunt, 50, said: 'It is also clear that there is a much greater strand of homosexuality than of heterosexuality which depends for its gratification on the exploitation of youth.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1307304/amp/Wife-traumatised-Tory-MP-Crispin-Blunt-admits-Im-gay.html

    Comments made before he came out.

    He might have made a poor witness for the defence.
    Yes - but possibly not because of his opinions.

    What exactly was the counter-narrative he was trying to establish?

    And why was it so important to him?

    There is a possible answer. You can work it out.

    @Cyclefree

    You may be right. I have no idea. But that’s a rather nasty insinuation unless you have evidence. You should know better than that.
    I don't know. But there is something odd about his response. Happy to withdraw any insinuation.
    I fully agree it’s a weird response (and IIRC he has form) - may be it’s just a misplaced sense of loyalty to a friend?
    Loyalty I can understand. But this is a bit OTT.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited April 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Crispin Blunt must be very close to being suspended from the party.

    He’s gonna have to withdraw that statement, for sure.

    His current position is untenable.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,040
    edited April 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    The reports of brutal rapes are widespread from every area occupied by Russia.
    Multiple reports: Russian soldiers gang rape Ukrainian women threatening them with guns and knives in front of their children. Among the most monstrous cases is the rape and murder of a 9yo girl by 11 Russian soldiers
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1512092791735734276

    What is notable if you read the linked article is the care Ukrainian authorities are taking in documenting crimes.

    I’m uncomfortable with the way such reports are called Ukrainian propaganda, as the word means by definition statements that are misleading.

    That’s not the definition of propaganda. It’s often used that way, and inferred as such, but it just means the organised dissemination of information, or that information itself. I want to a “Propaganda” exhibition at the British Library a few years ago and there was a whole section on the British government’s factual information campaign to prevent the spread of tuberculosis.
    The dictionary definition:
    “information, especially of a biased or misleading nature, used to promote a political cause or point of view.”

    So you’re technically correct that it doesn’t have to be misleading, but the term carries that strong implication.
    Technically correct is one of my favourite kinds of correct :wink:

    If we were to drop billions of leaflets over Russia telling the people what terrible atrocities their soldiers are engaged in, I’d call it propaganda
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,577
    Heathener said:

    The Jury decided who they believed. From the report the victim appears to have been the more credible witness, complaining contemporaneously and backed by his parents. Blunt did not hear that testimony.
    Don’t get me wrong, I’ve not read anything about the case so don’t have a view on it.

    And then you express a view on it :smiley:

    As you say, you weren't there, haven't read anything, so don't have a scoobies.
    If you read my post I was discussing what meets the threshold of “beyond reasonable doubt”, nothing else.

    In my view there’s no question on balance of probabilities he is guilty. I’m just surprised you can achieve the higher standard without corroborating evidence.

    But the jury has found him guilt beyond all reasonable doubt. So, unless an appeal court finds differently, he is guilty as charged.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,577
    Nigelb said:

    The Jury decided who they believed. From the report the victim appears to have been the more credible witness, complaining contemporaneously and backed by his parents. Blunt did not hear that testimony.
    Don’t get me wrong, I’ve not read anything about the case so don’t have a view on it. The jury will have heard the evidence and made up their mind - I’m just slightly surprised that you can get to “beyond reasonable doubt” when you are dependant on testimony without (presumably) corroborating evidence

    Without reading the trial transcript, you cannot assume no corroborating evidence. Also, from the short reports I’ve seen, Khan’s testimony appears weak and inconsistent.
    Agree - perhaps my comment “as reported” wasn’t clear. The article mentioned no other evidence & that is all I am going on
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,023
    ping said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Crispin Blunt must be very close to being suspended from the party.

    He’s gonna have to withdraw that statement, for sure.

    His current position is untenable.
    I'd be surprised if he withdraws it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,238
    Blunt needs to be told “put up or shut up, or you’re out the party.”
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,577
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Crispin Blunt's claim that sexual assault of a child is "minor on any scale" is causing some consternation amongst MPs. (And fury among others.)

    Not least because in his furiously passionate statements Blunt failed to reveal two things:-

    1. Blunt never attended the trial when the prosecution evidence was being given, only when the defence case was.
    2. Khan tried to stop the press reporting details of the charges and the case.

    His attack on the Surrey Police and Crime Commissioner for raising concerns about women being put at risk of sexual assault if self-ID is permitted is also being brought up. Perhaps unfairly. Still coming across as someone who dismisses both child abuse and worries about other types of sexual abuse is not the best optics.

    What is it about Tory MPs these days that they seem determined to set fire to their own careers?

    There is something puzzling about his statement.

    If - as he appears to claim - he had relevant evidence that would have helped the defence, the obvious question is why the defence did not call him.

    It suggests that either he did not have any.

    Or it was irrelevant.

    Or that he would have made a terrible witness for other reasons. If this last, I wonder what those reasons might have been.

    Why - exactly - is Blunt so bothered by this man's conviction that he responds in such a way? Standing by a friend is decent. Dismissing sexual abuse of a child is most definitely not. Friendship may be one reason for Blunt's reaction. But I wonder if there is more to this than we have yet been told.
    I wonder if it has anything to do with this:

    To cries of 'shame' from Labour MPs, Mr Blunt, 50, said: 'It is also clear that there is a much greater strand of homosexuality than of heterosexuality which depends for its gratification on the exploitation of youth.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1307304/amp/Wife-traumatised-Tory-MP-Crispin-Blunt-admits-Im-gay.html

    Comments made before he came out.

    He might have made a poor witness for the defence.
    Yes - but possibly not because of his opinions.

    What exactly was the counter-narrative he was trying to establish?

    And why was it so important to him?

    There is a possible answer. You can work it out.

    @Cyclefree

    You may be right. I have no idea. But that’s a rather nasty insinuation unless you have evidence. You should know better than that.
    I don't know. But there is something odd about his response. Happy to withdraw any insinuation.
    I fully agree it’s a weird response (and IIRC he has form) - may be it’s just a misplaced sense of loyalty to a friend?
    Loyalty I can understand. But this is a bit OTT.
    Indeed. Against that I think he took a similar stance in the Nigel Evans case? So may be it’s just him. But it’s definitely politically unwise
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited April 2022
    Prince Andrew also infamously attacked the victim's credibility.

    I seem to recall a similarly robust attack by Jonathan Aitken who said he was going to take the sword of truth to the lies with which he was smeared.

    'If it falls to me to start a fight to cut out the cancer of bent and twisted journalism in our country with the simple sword of truth and the trusty shield of British fair play, so be it. I am ready for the fight. The fight against falsehood and those who peddle it. My fight begins today.'

    In fact he was a crook, found guilty of perjury and sent to prison.

    THIS IS ALL SO SO REMINISCENT OF 1992-7!!!!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,738
    Nigelb said:

    The Jury decided who they believed. From the report the victim appears to have been the more credible witness, complaining contemporaneously and backed by his parents. Blunt did not hear that testimony.
    Don’t get me wrong, I’ve not read anything about the case so don’t have a view on it. The jury will have heard the evidence and made up their mind - I’m just slightly surprised that you can get to “beyond reasonable doubt” when you are dependant on testimony without (presumably) corroborating evidence

    Without reading the trial transcript, you cannot assume no corroborating evidence. Also, from the short reports I’ve seen, Khan’s testimony appears weak and inconsistent.
    Not commenting on this case in particular, but "weak and inconsistent" would basically be my memory for an unnoteworthy event that was supposed to have occurred fourteen years ago.

    Say you were alone with a child for a couple of hours one day: babysitting, or giving music lessons, or whatever. Nothing bad happened. Then, years later, the child comes out with a story. You might barely remember being with the child, because nothing happened. You can say nothing happened, because you know that is true: but it becomes harder to say what happened, because nothing noteworthy did.

    I am certainly not saying this is true in Khan's case, and Blunt's been an ass, but an invented story might always be 'fresher' than a defence of innocence.

    Can any of the court regulars tell me if there is any sense in the above, or can juries tell when people simply cannot remember as opposed to being evasive?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,425

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Crispin Blunt's claim that sexual assault of a child is "minor on any scale" is causing some consternation amongst MPs. (And fury among others.)

    Not least because in his furiously passionate statements Blunt failed to reveal two things:-

    1. Blunt never attended the trial when the prosecution evidence was being given, only when the defence case was.
    2. Khan tried to stop the press reporting details of the charges and the case.

    His attack on the Surrey Police and Crime Commissioner for raising concerns about women being put at risk of sexual assault if self-ID is permitted is also being brought up. Perhaps unfairly. Still coming across as someone who dismisses both child abuse and worries about other types of sexual abuse is not the best optics.

    What is it about Tory MPs these days that they seem determined to set fire to their own careers?

    There is something puzzling about his statement.

    If - as he appears to claim - he had relevant evidence that would have helped the defence, the obvious question is why the defence did not call him.

    It suggests that either he did not have any.

    Or it was irrelevant.

    Or that he would have made a terrible witness for other reasons. If this last, I wonder what those reasons might have been.

    Why - exactly - is Blunt so bothered by this man's conviction that he responds in such a way? Standing by a friend is decent. Dismissing sexual abuse of a child is most definitely not. Friendship may be one reason for Blunt's reaction. But I wonder if there is more to this than we have yet been told.
    I wonder if it has anything to do with this:

    To cries of 'shame' from Labour MPs, Mr Blunt, 50, said: 'It is also clear that there is a much greater strand of homosexuality than of heterosexuality which depends for its gratification on the exploitation of youth.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1307304/amp/Wife-traumatised-Tory-MP-Crispin-Blunt-admits-Im-gay.html

    Comments made before he came out.

    He might have made a poor witness for the defence.
    Yes - but possibly not because of his opinions.

    What exactly was the counter-narrative he was trying to establish?

    And why was it so important to him?

    There is a possible answer. You can work it out.

    @Cyclefree

    You may be right. I have no idea. But that’s a rather nasty insinuation unless you have evidence. You should know better than that.
    I don't know. But there is something odd about his response. Happy to withdraw any insinuation.
    I fully agree it’s a weird response (and IIRC he has form) - may be it’s just a misplaced sense of loyalty to a friend?
    Loyalty I can understand. But this is a bit OTT.
    Indeed. Against that I think he took a similar stance in the Nigel Evans case? So may be it’s just him. But it’s definitely politically unwise
    Nigel Evans was found innocent. It's his comment about the offence being minor which is the really damaging part.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Your lowest post yet I'm afraid JJ, not that you set the bar very high.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited April 2022
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Crispin Blunt's claim that sexual assault of a child is "minor on any scale" is causing some consternation amongst MPs. (And fury among others.)

    Not least because in his furiously passionate statements Blunt failed to reveal two things:-

    1. Blunt never attended the trial when the prosecution evidence was being given, only when the defence case was.
    2. Khan tried to stop the press reporting details of the charges and the case.

    His attack on the Surrey Police and Crime Commissioner for raising concerns about women being put at risk of sexual assault if self-ID is permitted is also being brought up. Perhaps unfairly. Still coming across as someone who dismisses both child abuse and worries about other types of sexual abuse is not the best optics.

    What is it about Tory MPs these days that they seem determined to set fire to their own careers?

    There is something puzzling about his statement.

    If - as he appears to claim - he had relevant evidence that would have helped the defence, the obvious question is why the defence did not call him.

    It suggests that either he did not have any.

    Or it was irrelevant.

    Or that he would have made a terrible witness for other reasons. If this last, I wonder what those reasons might have been.

    Why - exactly - is Blunt so bothered by this man's conviction that he responds in such a way? Standing by a friend is decent. Dismissing sexual abuse of a child is most definitely not. Friendship may be one reason for Blunt's reaction. But I wonder if there is more to this than we have yet been told.
    I wonder if it has anything to do with this:

    To cries of 'shame' from Labour MPs, Mr Blunt, 50, said: 'It is also clear that there is a much greater strand of homosexuality than of heterosexuality which depends for its gratification on the exploitation of youth.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1307304/amp/Wife-traumatised-Tory-MP-Crispin-Blunt-admits-Im-gay.html

    Comments made before he came out.

    He might have made a poor witness for the defence.
    Yes - but possibly not because of his opinions.

    What exactly was the counter-narrative he was trying to establish?

    And why was it so important to him?

    There is a possible answer. You can work it out.

    @Cyclefree

    You may be right. I have no idea. But that’s a rather nasty insinuation unless you have evidence. You should know better than that.
    I don't know. But there is something odd about his response. Happy to withdraw any insinuation.
    I fully agree it’s a weird response (and IIRC he has form) - may be it’s just a misplaced sense of loyalty to a friend?
    Loyalty I can understand. But this is a bit OTT.
    Indeed. Against that I think he took a similar stance in the Nigel Evans case? So may be it’s just him. But it’s definitely politically unwise
    Nigel Evans was found innocent. It's his comment about the offence being minor which is the really damaging part.
    Agreed. It's absolutely appalling.

    As a child who was violently sexually abused and raped ... there is nothing sodding "minor" about child sexual assault.

    The tories have sunk to new depths. Questioning not only a jury conviction but the actual offence itself. Are Crispin Blunt and his friends hiding something in their own lives or have they just completely lost their moral and legal compass? Either way, it's clearly time to boot the tories out.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805

    Nigelb said:

    The Jury decided who they believed. From the report the victim appears to have been the more credible witness, complaining contemporaneously and backed by his parents. Blunt did not hear that testimony.
    Don’t get me wrong, I’ve not read anything about the case so don’t have a view on it. The jury will have heard the evidence and made up their mind - I’m just slightly surprised that you can get to “beyond reasonable doubt” when you are dependant on testimony without (presumably) corroborating evidence

    Without reading the trial transcript, you cannot assume no corroborating evidence. Also, from the short reports I’ve seen, Khan’s testimony appears weak and inconsistent.
    Not commenting on this case in particular, but "weak and inconsistent" would basically be my memory for an unnoteworthy event that was supposed to have occurred fourteen years ago.

    Say you were alone with a child for a couple of hours one day: babysitting, or giving music lessons, or whatever. Nothing bad happened. Then, years later, the child comes out with a story. You might barely remember being with the child, because nothing happened. You can say nothing happened, because you know that is true: but it becomes harder to say what happened, because nothing noteworthy did.

    I am certainly not saying this is true in Khan's case, and Blunt's been an ass, but an invented story might always be 'fresher' than a defence of innocence.

    Can any of the court regulars tell me if there is any sense in the above, or can juries tell when people simply cannot remember as opposed to being evasive?
    AIUI, the victim/his parents called the police at the time. It’s not one of those situations like you describe, where an allegation comes out of the blue, decades later.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,577
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Crispin Blunt's claim that sexual assault of a child is "minor on any scale" is causing some consternation amongst MPs. (And fury among others.)

    Not least because in his furiously passionate statements Blunt failed to reveal two things:-

    1. Blunt never attended the trial when the prosecution evidence was being given, only when the defence case was.
    2. Khan tried to stop the press reporting details of the charges and the case.

    His attack on the Surrey Police and Crime Commissioner for raising concerns about women being put at risk of sexual assault if self-ID is permitted is also being brought up. Perhaps unfairly. Still coming across as someone who dismisses both child abuse and worries about other types of sexual abuse is not the best optics.

    What is it about Tory MPs these days that they seem determined to set fire to their own careers?

    There is something puzzling about his statement.

    If - as he appears to claim - he had relevant evidence that would have helped the defence, the obvious question is why the defence did not call him.

    It suggests that either he did not have any.

    Or it was irrelevant.

    Or that he would have made a terrible witness for other reasons. If this last, I wonder what those reasons might have been.

    Why - exactly - is Blunt so bothered by this man's conviction that he responds in such a way? Standing by a friend is decent. Dismissing sexual abuse of a child is most definitely not. Friendship may be one reason for Blunt's reaction. But I wonder if there is more to this than we have yet been told.
    I wonder if it has anything to do with this:

    To cries of 'shame' from Labour MPs, Mr Blunt, 50, said: 'It is also clear that there is a much greater strand of homosexuality than of heterosexuality which depends for its gratification on the exploitation of youth.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1307304/amp/Wife-traumatised-Tory-MP-Crispin-Blunt-admits-Im-gay.html

    Comments made before he came out.

    He might have made a poor witness for the defence.
    Yes - but possibly not because of his opinions.

    What exactly was the counter-narrative he was trying to establish?

    And why was it so important to him?

    There is a possible answer. You can work it out.

    @Cyclefree

    You may be right. I have no idea. But that’s a rather nasty insinuation unless you have evidence. You should know better than that.
    I don't know. But there is something odd about his response. Happy to withdraw any insinuation.
    I fully agree it’s a weird response (and IIRC he has form) - may be it’s just a misplaced sense of loyalty to a friend?
    Loyalty I can understand. But this is a bit OTT.
    Indeed. Against that I think he took a similar stance in the Nigel Evans case? So may be it’s just him. But it’s definitely politically unwise
    Nigel Evans was found innocent. It's his comment about the offence being minor which is the really damaging part.
    Agreed.

    Re: Nigel Evans that was exactly my point. If memory serves, Blunt was condemned for standing by him when he was accused. But he was then found innocent.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,738
    Heathener said:

    Your lowest post yet I'm afraid JJ, not that you set the bar very high.

    Why is it 'low' ? I'm not defending Khan or Blunt; I'm just asking a question about the way a defendant might not be able to remember exactly what happened, if nothing did.

    I see you are continuing your manners from yesterday morning.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,238
    ping said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Jury decided who they believed. From the report the victim appears to have been the more credible witness, complaining contemporaneously and backed by his parents. Blunt did not hear that testimony.
    Don’t get me wrong, I’ve not read anything about the case so don’t have a view on it. The jury will have heard the evidence and made up their mind - I’m just slightly surprised that you can get to “beyond reasonable doubt” when you are dependant on testimony without (presumably) corroborating evidence

    Without reading the trial transcript, you cannot assume no corroborating evidence. Also, from the short reports I’ve seen, Khan’s testimony appears weak and inconsistent.
    Not commenting on this case in particular, but "weak and inconsistent" would basically be my memory for an unnoteworthy event that was supposed to have occurred fourteen years ago.

    Say you were alone with a child for a couple of hours one day: babysitting, or giving music lessons, or whatever. Nothing bad happened. Then, years later, the child comes out with a story. You might barely remember being with the child, because nothing happened. You can say nothing happened, because you know that is true: but it becomes harder to say what happened, because nothing noteworthy did.

    I am certainly not saying this is true in Khan's case, and Blunt's been an ass, but an invented story might always be 'fresher' than a defence of innocence.

    Can any of the court regulars tell me if there is any sense in the above, or can juries tell when people simply cannot remember as opposed to being evasive?
    AIUI, the victim/his parents called the police at the time. It’s not one of those situations like you describe, where an allegation comes out of the blue, decades later.
    Oh really? Another case of the police not doing their job properly at the time by the sounds of it.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,425
    Heathener said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Crispin Blunt's claim that sexual assault of a child is "minor on any scale" is causing some consternation amongst MPs. (And fury among others.)

    Not least because in his furiously passionate statements Blunt failed to reveal two things:-

    1. Blunt never attended the trial when the prosecution evidence was being given, only when the defence case was.
    2. Khan tried to stop the press reporting details of the charges and the case.

    His attack on the Surrey Police and Crime Commissioner for raising concerns about women being put at risk of sexual assault if self-ID is permitted is also being brought up. Perhaps unfairly. Still coming across as someone who dismisses both child abuse and worries about other types of sexual abuse is not the best optics.

    What is it about Tory MPs these days that they seem determined to set fire to their own careers?

    There is something puzzling about his statement.

    If - as he appears to claim - he had relevant evidence that would have helped the defence, the obvious question is why the defence did not call him.

    It suggests that either he did not have any.

    Or it was irrelevant.

    Or that he would have made a terrible witness for other reasons. If this last, I wonder what those reasons might have been.

    Why - exactly - is Blunt so bothered by this man's conviction that he responds in such a way? Standing by a friend is decent. Dismissing sexual abuse of a child is most definitely not. Friendship may be one reason for Blunt's reaction. But I wonder if there is more to this than we have yet been told.
    I wonder if it has anything to do with this:

    To cries of 'shame' from Labour MPs, Mr Blunt, 50, said: 'It is also clear that there is a much greater strand of homosexuality than of heterosexuality which depends for its gratification on the exploitation of youth.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1307304/amp/Wife-traumatised-Tory-MP-Crispin-Blunt-admits-Im-gay.html

    Comments made before he came out.

    He might have made a poor witness for the defence.
    Yes - but possibly not because of his opinions.

    What exactly was the counter-narrative he was trying to establish?

    And why was it so important to him?

    There is a possible answer. You can work it out.

    @Cyclefree

    You may be right. I have no idea. But that’s a rather nasty insinuation unless you have evidence. You should know better than that.
    I don't know. But there is something odd about his response. Happy to withdraw any insinuation.
    I fully agree it’s a weird response (and IIRC he has form) - may be it’s just a misplaced sense of loyalty to a friend?
    Loyalty I can understand. But this is a bit OTT.
    Indeed. Against that I think he took a similar stance in the Nigel Evans case? So may be it’s just him. But it’s definitely politically unwise
    Nigel Evans was found innocent. It's his comment about the offence being minor which is the really damaging part.
    Agreed. It's absolutely appalling.

    As a child who was violently sexually abused and raped ... there is nothing sodding "minor" about child sexual assault.

    The tories have sunk to new depths. Questioning not only a jury conviction but the actual offence itself. Are Crispin Blunt and his friends hiding something in their own lives or have they just completely lost their moral and legal compass? Either way, it's clearly time to boot the tories out.
    It is only Blunt who has said this. What friends are you referring to.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,738
    ping said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Jury decided who they believed. From the report the victim appears to have been the more credible witness, complaining contemporaneously and backed by his parents. Blunt did not hear that testimony.
    Don’t get me wrong, I’ve not read anything about the case so don’t have a view on it. The jury will have heard the evidence and made up their mind - I’m just slightly surprised that you can get to “beyond reasonable doubt” when you are dependant on testimony without (presumably) corroborating evidence

    Without reading the trial transcript, you cannot assume no corroborating evidence. Also, from the short reports I’ve seen, Khan’s testimony appears weak and inconsistent.
    Not commenting on this case in particular, but "weak and inconsistent" would basically be my memory for an unnoteworthy event that was supposed to have occurred fourteen years ago.

    Say you were alone with a child for a couple of hours one day: babysitting, or giving music lessons, or whatever. Nothing bad happened. Then, years later, the child comes out with a story. You might barely remember being with the child, because nothing happened. You can say nothing happened, because you know that is true: but it becomes harder to say what happened, because nothing noteworthy did.

    I am certainly not saying this is true in Khan's case, and Blunt's been an ass, but an invented story might always be 'fresher' than a defence of innocence.

    Can any of the court regulars tell me if there is any sense in the above, or can juries tell when people simply cannot remember as opposed to being evasive?
    AIUI, the victim/his parents called the police at the time. It’s not one of those situations like you describe, where an allegation comes out of the blue, decades later.
    Thanks. In which case, if the police had interviewed me near the time, I'd certainly remember the details!

    Was it mentioned in court why matters did not progress at the time?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,238
    Nigelb said:

    Reports of over a hundred thousand children forcibly deported to Russia.
    The reported forcible adoption would clearly breach Article II Section E of the Genocide Convention.

    Russia to fast-track adoptions of Ukrainian children 'forcibly deported' after their parents were killed by Putin's troops, authorities say
    https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-to-fast-track-adoption-of-deported-ukraine-orphans-kyiv-officials-2022-4

    Is this Putin’s solution to Russia’s demographic problems?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    Heathener said:

    Your lowest post yet I'm afraid JJ, not that you set the bar very high.

    Why is it 'low' ? I'm not defending Khan or Blunt; I'm just asking a question about the way a defendant might not be able to remember exactly what happened, if nothing did.

    I see you are continuing your manners from yesterday morning.
    When you told me not to use the word 'rape'. Yes, this engenders strong emotions in me because I've been through this.

    To question not only the validity of historic child abuse evidence but also the jury's verdict and (in the case of Crispin Blunt) the very viability of the offence of child sexual abuse is to descend into the chthonian depths.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    tlg86 said:

    ping said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Jury decided who they believed. From the report the victim appears to have been the more credible witness, complaining contemporaneously and backed by his parents. Blunt did not hear that testimony.
    Don’t get me wrong, I’ve not read anything about the case so don’t have a view on it. The jury will have heard the evidence and made up their mind - I’m just slightly surprised that you can get to “beyond reasonable doubt” when you are dependant on testimony without (presumably) corroborating evidence

    Without reading the trial transcript, you cannot assume no corroborating evidence. Also, from the short reports I’ve seen, Khan’s testimony appears weak and inconsistent.
    Not commenting on this case in particular, but "weak and inconsistent" would basically be my memory for an unnoteworthy event that was supposed to have occurred fourteen years ago.

    Say you were alone with a child for a couple of hours one day: babysitting, or giving music lessons, or whatever. Nothing bad happened. Then, years later, the child comes out with a story. You might barely remember being with the child, because nothing happened. You can say nothing happened, because you know that is true: but it becomes harder to say what happened, because nothing noteworthy did.

    I am certainly not saying this is true in Khan's case, and Blunt's been an ass, but an invented story might always be 'fresher' than a defence of innocence.

    Can any of the court regulars tell me if there is any sense in the above, or can juries tell when people simply cannot remember as opposed to being evasive?
    AIUI, the victim/his parents called the police at the time. It’s not one of those situations like you describe, where an allegation comes out of the blue, decades later.
    Oh really? Another case of the police not doing their job properly at the time by the sounds of it.
    I don’t know about that - from what I read “he decided not to press charges at the time” or something along those lines. To be fair to the police, it may not have been incompetence on their part.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,738
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Your lowest post yet I'm afraid JJ, not that you set the bar very high.

    Why is it 'low' ? I'm not defending Khan or Blunt; I'm just asking a question about the way a defendant might not be able to remember exactly what happened, if nothing did.

    I see you are continuing your manners from yesterday morning.
    When you told me not to use the word 'rape'. Yes, this engenders strong emotions in me because I've been through this.

    To question not only the validity of historic child abuse evidence but also the jury's verdict and (in the case of Crispin Blunt) the very viability of the offence of child sexual abuse is to descend into the chthonian depths.
    When on Earth do you think I told you not to use the word 'rape' ? Please tell me, as I'm fairly darned sure that I'd never have done that. Give evidence or retract.

    Given you utterly misrepresented my views yesterday morning, I'd expect you cannot. If you can, I will obviously retract and apologise.

    So go on: when did I tell you not to use the word 'rape'?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,238
    ping said:

    tlg86 said:

    ping said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Jury decided who they believed. From the report the victim appears to have been the more credible witness, complaining contemporaneously and backed by his parents. Blunt did not hear that testimony.
    Don’t get me wrong, I’ve not read anything about the case so don’t have a view on it. The jury will have heard the evidence and made up their mind - I’m just slightly surprised that you can get to “beyond reasonable doubt” when you are dependant on testimony without (presumably) corroborating evidence

    Without reading the trial transcript, you cannot assume no corroborating evidence. Also, from the short reports I’ve seen, Khan’s testimony appears weak and inconsistent.
    Not commenting on this case in particular, but "weak and inconsistent" would basically be my memory for an unnoteworthy event that was supposed to have occurred fourteen years ago.

    Say you were alone with a child for a couple of hours one day: babysitting, or giving music lessons, or whatever. Nothing bad happened. Then, years later, the child comes out with a story. You might barely remember being with the child, because nothing happened. You can say nothing happened, because you know that is true: but it becomes harder to say what happened, because nothing noteworthy did.

    I am certainly not saying this is true in Khan's case, and Blunt's been an ass, but an invented story might always be 'fresher' than a defence of innocence.

    Can any of the court regulars tell me if there is any sense in the above, or can juries tell when people simply cannot remember as opposed to being evasive?
    AIUI, the victim/his parents called the police at the time. It’s not one of those situations like you describe, where an allegation comes out of the blue, decades later.
    Oh really? Another case of the police not doing their job properly at the time by the sounds of it.
    I don’t know about that - from what I read “he decided not to press charges at the time” or something along those lines. To be fair to the police, it may not have been incompetence on their part.
    Oh. In that case, I’m not sure I approve of coming back to it years later. It’s not like he came forward to support someone else making a similar allegation.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    ping said:

    tlg86 said:

    ping said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Jury decided who they believed. From the report the victim appears to have been the more credible witness, complaining contemporaneously and backed by his parents. Blunt did not hear that testimony.
    Don’t get me wrong, I’ve not read anything about the case so don’t have a view on it. The jury will have heard the evidence and made up their mind - I’m just slightly surprised that you can get to “beyond reasonable doubt” when you are dependant on testimony without (presumably) corroborating evidence

    Without reading the trial transcript, you cannot assume no corroborating evidence. Also, from the short reports I’ve seen, Khan’s testimony appears weak and inconsistent.
    Not commenting on this case in particular, but "weak and inconsistent" would basically be my memory for an unnoteworthy event that was supposed to have occurred fourteen years ago.

    Say you were alone with a child for a couple of hours one day: babysitting, or giving music lessons, or whatever. Nothing bad happened. Then, years later, the child comes out with a story. You might barely remember being with the child, because nothing happened. You can say nothing happened, because you know that is true: but it becomes harder to say what happened, because nothing noteworthy did.

    I am certainly not saying this is true in Khan's case, and Blunt's been an ass, but an invented story might always be 'fresher' than a defence of innocence.

    Can any of the court regulars tell me if there is any sense in the above, or can juries tell when people simply cannot remember as opposed to being evasive?
    AIUI, the victim/his parents called the police at the time. It’s not one of those situations like you describe, where an allegation comes out of the blue, decades later.
    Oh really? Another case of the police not doing their job properly at the time by the sounds of it.
    I don’t know about that - from what I read “he decided not to press charges at the time” or something along those lines. To be fair to the police, it may not have been incompetence on their part.
    Victims of child abuse are often far too traumatised and scared, as well as lacking full adult capacity, to come forward at the time. I know this only too well. Obviously there needs to be a balance, as we know from the lies of Carl Beech it's possible to hoodwink some people.

    However, the way the far right are now attempting to question a jury's conviction on a case shows the depths to which they have sunk.

    The tory party is in such a mess. It's so reminiscent of 1992-7 when John Major's Back to Basics actually led to the sleaziest regime in living memory. Until now.

    Dirty broken tories.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,178
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Crispin Blunt's claim that sexual assault of a child is "minor on any scale" is causing some consternation amongst MPs. (And fury among others.)

    Not least because in his furiously passionate statements Blunt failed to reveal two things:-

    1. Blunt never attended the trial when the prosecution evidence was being given, only when the defence case was.
    2. Khan tried to stop the press reporting details of the charges and the case.

    His attack on the Surrey Police and Crime Commissioner for raising concerns about women being put at risk of sexual assault if self-ID is permitted is also being brought up. Perhaps unfairly. Still coming across as someone who dismisses both child abuse and worries about other types of sexual abuse is not the best optics.

    What is it about Tory MPs these days that they seem determined to set fire to their own careers?

    There is something puzzling about his statement.

    If - as he appears to claim - he had relevant evidence that would have helped the defence, the obvious question is why the defence did not call him.

    It suggests that either he did not have any.

    Or it was irrelevant.

    Or that he would have made a terrible witness for other reasons. If this last, I wonder what those reasons might have been.

    Why - exactly - is Blunt so bothered by this man's conviction that he responds in such a way? Standing by a friend is decent. Dismissing sexual abuse of a child is most definitely not. Friendship may be one reason for Blunt's reaction. But I wonder if there is more to this than we have yet been told.
    I wonder if it has anything to do with this:

    To cries of 'shame' from Labour MPs, Mr Blunt, 50, said: 'It is also clear that there is a much greater strand of homosexuality than of heterosexuality which depends for its gratification on the exploitation of youth.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1307304/amp/Wife-traumatised-Tory-MP-Crispin-Blunt-admits-Im-gay.html

    Comments made before he came out.

    He might have made a poor witness for the defence.
    Yes - but possibly not because of his opinions.

    What exactly was the counter-narrative he was trying to establish?

    And why was it so important to him?

    There is a possible answer. You can work it out.

    Not sure what point you are seeking to make there - but it does sound rather nasty. My position is to respect the jury verdict. If he appeals - win or lose likewise.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,425

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Crispin Blunt's claim that sexual assault of a child is "minor on any scale" is causing some consternation amongst MPs. (And fury among others.)

    Not least because in his furiously passionate statements Blunt failed to reveal two things:-

    1. Blunt never attended the trial when the prosecution evidence was being given, only when the defence case was.
    2. Khan tried to stop the press reporting details of the charges and the case.

    His attack on the Surrey Police and Crime Commissioner for raising concerns about women being put at risk of sexual assault if self-ID is permitted is also being brought up. Perhaps unfairly. Still coming across as someone who dismisses both child abuse and worries about other types of sexual abuse is not the best optics.

    What is it about Tory MPs these days that they seem determined to set fire to their own careers?

    There is something puzzling about his statement.

    If - as he appears to claim - he had relevant evidence that would have helped the defence, the obvious question is why the defence did not call him.

    It suggests that either he did not have any.

    Or it was irrelevant.

    Or that he would have made a terrible witness for other reasons. If this last, I wonder what those reasons might have been.

    Why - exactly - is Blunt so bothered by this man's conviction that he responds in such a way? Standing by a friend is decent. Dismissing sexual abuse of a child is most definitely not. Friendship may be one reason for Blunt's reaction. But I wonder if there is more to this than we have yet been told.
    I wonder if it has anything to do with this:

    To cries of 'shame' from Labour MPs, Mr Blunt, 50, said: 'It is also clear that there is a much greater strand of homosexuality than of heterosexuality which depends for its gratification on the exploitation of youth.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1307304/amp/Wife-traumatised-Tory-MP-Crispin-Blunt-admits-Im-gay.html

    Comments made before he came out.

    He might have made a poor witness for the defence.
    Yes - but possibly not because of his opinions.

    What exactly was the counter-narrative he was trying to establish?

    And why was it so important to him?

    There is a possible answer. You can work it out.

    @Cyclefree

    You may be right. I have no idea. But that’s a rather nasty insinuation unless you have evidence. You should know better than that.
    I don't know. But there is something odd about his response. Happy to withdraw any insinuation.
    I fully agree it’s a weird response (and IIRC he has form) - may be it’s just a misplaced sense of loyalty to a friend?
    Loyalty I can understand. But this is a bit OTT.
    Indeed. Against that I think he took a similar stance in the Nigel Evans case? So may be it’s just him. But it’s definitely politically unwise
    Nigel Evans was found innocent. It's his comment about the offence being minor which is the really damaging part.
    Agreed.

    Re: Nigel Evans that was exactly my point. If memory serves, Blunt was condemned for standing by him when he was accused. But he was then found innocent.
    I don't condemn him for standing by his friends. It is how he is doing it which is questionable.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    NEW THREAD
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Your lowest post yet I'm afraid JJ, not that you set the bar very high.

    Why is it 'low' ? I'm not defending Khan or Blunt; I'm just asking a question about the way a defendant might not be able to remember exactly what happened, if nothing did.

    I see you are continuing your manners from yesterday morning.
    When you told me not to use the word 'rape'. Yes, this engenders strong emotions in me because I've been through this.

    To question not only the validity of historic child abuse evidence but also the jury's verdict and (in the case of Crispin Blunt) the very viability of the offence of child sexual abuse is to descend into the chthonian depths.
    When on Earth do you think I told you not to use the word 'rape' ? Please tell me, as I'm fairly darned sure that I'd never have done that. Give evidence or retract.

    Given you utterly misrepresented my views yesterday morning, I'd expect you cannot. If you can, I will obviously retract and apologise.

    So go on: when did I tell you not to use the word 'rape'?
    See new thread for the answer to when you told me not to use the word. Clue: yesterday morning.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,425
    felix said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Crispin Blunt's claim that sexual assault of a child is "minor on any scale" is causing some consternation amongst MPs. (And fury among others.)

    Not least because in his furiously passionate statements Blunt failed to reveal two things:-

    1. Blunt never attended the trial when the prosecution evidence was being given, only when the defence case was.
    2. Khan tried to stop the press reporting details of the charges and the case.

    His attack on the Surrey Police and Crime Commissioner for raising concerns about women being put at risk of sexual assault if self-ID is permitted is also being brought up. Perhaps unfairly. Still coming across as someone who dismisses both child abuse and worries about other types of sexual abuse is not the best optics.

    What is it about Tory MPs these days that they seem determined to set fire to their own careers?

    There is something puzzling about his statement.

    If - as he appears to claim - he had relevant evidence that would have helped the defence, the obvious question is why the defence did not call him.

    It suggests that either he did not have any.

    Or it was irrelevant.

    Or that he would have made a terrible witness for other reasons. If this last, I wonder what those reasons might have been.

    Why - exactly - is Blunt so bothered by this man's conviction that he responds in such a way? Standing by a friend is decent. Dismissing sexual abuse of a child is most definitely not. Friendship may be one reason for Blunt's reaction. But I wonder if there is more to this than we have yet been told.
    I wonder if it has anything to do with this:

    To cries of 'shame' from Labour MPs, Mr Blunt, 50, said: 'It is also clear that there is a much greater strand of homosexuality than of heterosexuality which depends for its gratification on the exploitation of youth.'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1307304/amp/Wife-traumatised-Tory-MP-Crispin-Blunt-admits-Im-gay.html

    Comments made before he came out.

    He might have made a poor witness for the defence.
    Yes - but possibly not because of his opinions.

    What exactly was the counter-narrative he was trying to establish?

    And why was it so important to him?

    There is a possible answer. You can work it out.

    Not sure what point you are seeking to make there - but it does sound rather nasty. My position is to respect the jury verdict. If he appeals - win or lose likewise.
    I have already withdrawn any insinuation. See my response upthread.
This discussion has been closed.