Will Macron prove to be quasi effective against Le Pen today? – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You live in a world of make believeHYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members1 -
Most recommended comment in the ft;
“Thinned skinned Rishi is clearly angry that information that it was clearly in the public interest to be released has come into the public domain.
Rather than ruefully and genuinely admit he and his wife should have done things differently he demands that the state engages in a witch hunt. Everyone else is to blame but the pair of them I guess.
Shows the stature of the man really. He's proved himself to be unfit for high office.”
https://www.ft.com/content/4c225e8d-edcf-4e09-a69f-10044837ed34#comments-anchor
And the DM highest rated comments are terrible for Rishi, too;
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10704465/Rishi-orders-hunt-Red-Throat-leaker-wifes-non-dom-tax-status.html
When you unite the FT and the DM readers against you, you’ve got a serious problem.1 -
For me it was a C130 parallel to and slightly below me on (I think) Loch Garry, A87 anyway. Couldn't keep up on a Ducati 748!kjh said:
Several times I have had something travel next to me. The most impressive was a barn owl who flew close and parallel to me for a bit.Farooq said:
I've noticed that some wildlife is unfazed by bikes even if they see you. I've managed to get close to rabbits on the road side, and birds of prey on fence posts on bike, and just stop and look at them for a while. They can see you but they just don't seem to care.kjh said:
I do the same but on a bike, off road. Organise myself and it is wonderful for all the reasons you mention. I prefer the bike to walking as (in my opinion) you see more in particular wildlife as you tend to catch it by surprise.Leon said:
Are you doing this entirely as you go? Ie carrying all your luggage as you hike?BlancheLivermore said:Have had no phone reception for the last couple of hours which was a little scary. Luckily my phone map continued showing my position and the route most of the way.
I stopped for my pistachio nut and beer lunch by a little river called Rec De Sant Miquel. More San Miguel was flowing than Sant Miquel; I didn’t need the bridge!
Also just realised I’m not going to make it to the French border today. There are no rooms I can find in Portbou, or in Cerbère just over the border, so I’ve got a room in Colera instead tonight and will head for Banyuls-sur-mer in France tomorrow.
That’s impressive, if so. Must be quite a rucksack
I’d love to do a long long walking tour (I love hiking, I love that pleasurable exhaustion at the end of the day, the much earned dinner, the deep deep sleep) what puts me off is lugging all my stuff
I know holiday companies will do it all for you but it feels a bit like cheating
I have done SW Coast of France, Normandy and Brittany and would have done Loire this spring if I hadn't broken my legs.
It doesn't seem to work with deer; they just scarper anyway. And weirdly cows seem to get more freaked out by bikes than if you're on foot.2 -
Even then NATO would not nuke Russia, at most it would be an airstrike and even then not guaranteed as neither are in NATO so it could just be even tighter sanctions on RussiaMexicanpete said:
You keep writing this. Do you think that the more times you write that NATO will only retaliate a strike on a NATO member the truer it becomes.HYUFD said:
Unless Putin fires a nuclear missile at a NATO nation there will be no NATO nuclear weapons fired at Russia and even then only a NATO nuclear response is guaranteed if France, the USA or UK are hit.DecrepiterJohnL said:
And the Chinese retaliation if they cannot accurately tell where incoming missiles are aimed.Benpointer said:FPT:
I think you made a similar point before and it's a very fair one but not desperately comforting.rcs1000 said:
Given the shocking state of most Russian military kit, how likely are the Russians not to have skimped on nuclear weapon maintenance?TimT said:
Indeed. Anyone with eyes and honest evidence knows that war with the West is not just unwinnable for Russia, but could only end in rout for them, unless:rottenborough said:
As he says, war with West looks more inevitable as each day goes by.CarlottaVance said:Read this interview with Karaganov (reliable bellwether of 🇷🇺ruling elite majority consensus).
If afterwards you still harbor any illusions about sustainable negotiated settlement with Putin's Kremlin on European security order read it again. And again.
https://twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1513039187527806977
Hope to God he is wrong.
1. The Putinists are very confident that they can mobilize 5th columns to great effect, or they can bring in China on their side (no other ally would make a significant difference), OR
2. It goes nuclear.
Say 90% of their warheads don't work - that still leaves a totally trashed world in the event of them being fired. Especially since the Western retaliation would presumably have to be based on assumption Russian nukes work.
China is on the other side of the world, even if closer to Russia now.
Were Russia to strike Finland or Sweden, I have no doubt the narrative changes.0 -
Plus Morrison still leads on preferred PM, I remain of the view he will be narrowly re electedMoonRabbit said:I know Sunday is your PB day of rest HY, but have you noticed the Aussie election called.
Has your man Morrison waited till the last possible moment?
The polls have turn back towards the government in April.
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They aren't whipping they are scrubbing (no contact) unless they want to be disqualified.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a terrible toll to lose 4 horses and to be honest whipping a horse is barbaricMoonRabbit said:Stodge warned us, Eclair Surf has succumbed to yesterdays injury.😢
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I suspect that may be wishful thinking. At least as far as the most influential voters, the party members, are concerned.Farooq said:
Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.HYUFD said:
You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You live in a world of make believeHYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members0 -
The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.Farooq said:
Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.HYUFD said:
You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You live in a world of make believeHYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together0 -
DT's Simon Heffer also saying that Sunak clearly does not understand politics.ping said:Most recommended comment in the ft;
“Thinned skinned Rishi is clearly angry that information that it was clearly in the public interest to be released has come into the public domain.
Rather than ruefully and genuinely admit he and his wife should have done things differently he demands that the state engages in a witch hunt. Everyone else is to blame but the pair of them I guess.
Shows the stature of the man really. He's proved himself to be unfit for high office.”
https://www.ft.com/content/4c225e8d-edcf-4e09-a69f-10044837ed34#comments-anchor
And the DM highest rated comments are terrible for Rishi, too;
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10704465/Rishi-orders-hunt-Red-Throat-leaker-wifes-non-dom-tax-status.html
When you unite the FT and the DM readers against you, you’ve got a serious problem.
0 -
That is what it seems to come down to. 'How dare you?' seems to be his responseping said:Most recommended comment in the ft;
“Thinned skinned Rishi is clearly angry that information that it was clearly in the public interest to be released has come into the public domain.
Rather than ruefully and genuinely admit he and his wife should have done things differently he demands that the state engages in a witch hunt. Everyone else is to blame but the pair of them I guess.
Shows the stature of the man really. He's proved himself to be unfit for high office.”
https://www.ft.com/content/4c225e8d-edcf-4e09-a69f-10044837ed34#comments-anchor
And the DM highest rated comments are terrible for Rishi, too;
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10704465/Rishi-orders-hunt-Red-Throat-leaker-wifes-non-dom-tax-status.html
When you unite the FT and the DM readers against you, you’ve got a serious problem.1 -
But Brexit was just a hazy fantasy when Cameron was leader. In the cold, harsh light of day are any Tories still tingly about it? I suspect most couldn't care less about having a Remainer leader now and might even find it therapeutic - a kind of release.HYUFD said:
I doubt it, remember most Tory voters voted for Brexit even when Cameron was PM. Now some 2015 Tory Remain voters have gone Labour or LD and 2015 UKIP voters have mainly gone Tory, the Tory vote and membership is even more pro Brexit. Boris or no Boris.Stark_Dawning said:
The Boris loyalists will still cling to Brexit as their man is inexorably associated with it. But when he's gone I suspect the Tories will start regarding Brexit as something akin to the Poll Tax - an aberration, something to do with early senility and a regime that had lost its way.HYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
A Labour government might align the UK closer to the EEA again and in time future generations of Tories might accept that but this generation of Tories won't0 -
I am certainly not on the same page as yourself and more likely to be in tune with conservatives votersHYUFD said:
You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You live in a world of make believeHYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members0 -
If Le Pen wins, could London see a big influx of French people who strongly dislike her?0
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Since Howard no PM has lasted longer than Morrison has managed already at not even 4 years, and that was a surprise. He will have done very well if he can hold on again.HYUFD said:
Plus Morrison still leads on preferred PM, I remain of the view he will be narrowly re electedMoonRabbit said:I know Sunday is your PB day of rest HY, but have you noticed the Aussie election called.
Has your man Morrison waited till the last possible moment?
The polls have turn back towards the government in April. 0 -
Down jackets are fine if you don’t mind them being a bit disposable. Ie you might shred one after a few trips. But they do the jobFarooq said:
I wouldn't recommend a down jacket for any serious trekking. Useful for a stroll in a London park in December perhaps.Leon said:
CoolBlancheLivermore said:
Everything is in my rucksack, which was small enough to be Ryanair hand luggage. All I’m carrying is enough underwear and t-shirts for a week, a couple of shirts and my washbag. I’ve got a (vey classy Fortnum & Mason) shopping bag to carry my daily beer and lunch and my phone battery pack. I’ve managed to attach my jacket to my rucksack, which is handy as it won’t fit inside. I expect my one pair of jeans will be able to walk home on their own!Leon said:
Are you doing this entirely as you go? Ie carrying all your luggage as you hike?BlancheLivermore said:Have had no phone reception for the last couple of hours which was a little scary. Luckily my phone map continued showing my position and the route most of the way.
I stopped for my pistachio nut and beer lunch by a little river called Rec De Sant Miquel. More San Miguel was flowing than Sant Miquel; I didn’t need the bridge!
Also just realised I’m not going to make it to the French border today. There are no rooms I can find in Portbou, or in Cerbère just over the border, so I’ve got a room in Colera instead tonight and will head for Banyuls-sur-mer in France tomorrow.
That’s impressive, if so. Must be quite a rucksack
I’d love to do a long long walking tour (I love hiking, I love that pleasurable exhaustion at the end of the day, the much earned dinner, the deep deep sleep) what puts me off is lugging all my stuff
I know holiday companies will do it all for you but it feels a bit like cheating
Modern down jackets are brilliant for these reasons. They keep you warm in the cold and dry in the wet, yet they are featherlight, and you can squash them into a daypack if needs be
You do need a guaranteed run of good weather tho. If you get real cold, and hard rain, then you need layers and layers and that means actual proper luggage which is a pain to carry
My problem would be books. I love to read real books, especially if they relate to where I am. But they are heavy
Izmir has been a revelation. What made me hate it at first is the same reason it is brilliant. Off puttingly ugly so no one bothers, yet actually fascinating, ridiculously cheap (5 star hotel: £60), surrounded by wild coast and superb history and with great public transport. Also, stuffed mussels. And 3 hour direct flights from Luton
I am going to return and do a piece for the Knappers’ Gazette
As for books, invest in an audiobook subscription service. You can listen while you walk if you want. It makes it possible to have hundreds of books with you for no extra weight. It's obviously not as good as a physical book in some respects, but extremely convenient for travel.
I love Berghaus long sleeve zip up tops as layering. Easy to wash, perfect for adventures, smart enough to get away with at a bar (at a pinch) yet robust enough for real experiences
Yet it seems they have discontinued them! Madness0 -
You mean you hope he will be reelectedHYUFD said:
Plus Morrison still leads on preferred PM, I remain of the view he will be narrowly re electedMoonRabbit said:I know Sunday is your PB day of rest HY, but have you noticed the Aussie election called.
Has your man Morrison waited till the last possible moment?
The polls have turn back towards the government in April. 0 -
Is that an autocorrect error for planet?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am certainly not on the same page as yourself and more likely to be in tune with conservatives votersHYUFD said:
You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You live in a world of make believeHYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members0 -
Any conservative voters who commit heresy against HY are not and never were conservative voters.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am certainly not on the same page as yourself and more likely to be in tune with conservatives votersHYUFD said:
You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You live in a world of make believeHYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members2 -
If you are not a fan, why are you so confident the average Tory is a fan?HYUFD said:
The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.Farooq said:
Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.HYUFD said:
You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You live in a world of make believeHYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together
3 -
In the 2019 Australian general election the preferred PM polling was more accurate than the 2PP pollingBig_G_NorthWales said:
You mean you hope he will be reelectedHYUFD said:
Plus Morrison still leads on preferred PM, I remain of the view he will be narrowly re electedMoonRabbit said:I know Sunday is your PB day of rest HY, but have you noticed the Aussie election called.
Has your man Morrison waited till the last possible moment?
The polls have turn back towards the government in April. 0 -
Failure to take responsibility seems to be a top-down trait of this Cabinet.kle4 said:
That is what it seems to come down to. 'How dare you?' seems to be his responseping said:Most recommended comment in the ft;
“Thinned skinned Rishi is clearly angry that information that it was clearly in the public interest to be released has come into the public domain.
Rather than ruefully and genuinely admit he and his wife should have done things differently he demands that the state engages in a witch hunt. Everyone else is to blame but the pair of them I guess.
Shows the stature of the man really. He's proved himself to be unfit for high office.”
https://www.ft.com/content/4c225e8d-edcf-4e09-a69f-10044837ed34#comments-anchor
And the DM highest rated comments are terrible for Rishi, too;
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10704465/Rishi-orders-hunt-Red-Throat-leaker-wifes-non-dom-tax-status.html
When you unite the FT and the DM readers against you, you’ve got a serious problem.0 -
LOL, smartarse the comedienne thinks they are funny. Given you are so thick you think I am in Ayr says it all.Farooq said:
I expect most people are just grateful to not be in Ayrmalcolmg said:
Why would you want to shop in Inverness in the first place.Eabhal said:
My personal campaign is to get better poverty indicators: "After Housing Costs" is useless if live in Ullapool or something, and it costs you £50 to go shopping in Inverness.Farooq said:
Yes, fuel poverty is much more a northern problem than a southern one. You're right to focus on these regional differences.Eabhal said:FPT: On the cost of living theory crisis, the caveat is that the savings ratio was insanely high during lockdown (among Tory income levels, at least), and discretionary spending hasn't rocketed after restrictions eased.
In theory, this means there is a lot of flex in Tory household budgets, which should neuter the problem somewhat.
Problem for Johnson is that people don't really think like that (see Prospect Theory). Also, people on lower incomes have been fucked throughout, so the general consensus that the north is lost is probably right (particularly as they spend more (%) on fuel/energy).
There is a big pot of WFH Southern Savings that the Treasury could go after, but that cohort is the final Tory redoubt. No chance.
Cities are also just great to live in; it's worth paying extra for that (personal view though), especially if it reduces your commute.
0 -
I'm puzzled by the the decision to keep non-dom status (controversial) but stop avoiding tax on foreign income in the UK (uncontroversial).1
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I was a Remainer in 2016, if anything I am on the moderate wing of the Tory membership now in terms of views of the EU.kle4 said:
If you are not a fan, why are you so confident the average Tory is a fan?HYUFD said:
The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.Farooq said:
Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.HYUFD said:
You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You live in a world of make believeHYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together
BigG is also far closer to Starmer Labour or Davey's LDs than the current Tory leadership, just he has not admitted it to himself yet0 -
Exactly just bollox.Theuniondivvie said:
There’s a Tesco superstore in Ullapool, I’m sure it’ll supply as much flaked Parmesan as anyone could eat.malcolmg said:
Why would you want to shop in Inverness in the first place.Eabhal said:
My personal campaign is to get better poverty indicators: "After Housing Costs" is useless if live in Ullapool or something, and it costs you £50 to go shopping in Inverness.Farooq said:
Yes, fuel poverty is much more a northern problem than a southern one. You're right to focus on these regional differences.Eabhal said:FPT: On the cost of living theory crisis, the caveat is that the savings ratio was insanely high during lockdown (among Tory income levels, at least), and discretionary spending hasn't rocketed after restrictions eased.
In theory, this means there is a lot of flex in Tory household budgets, which should neuter the problem somewhat.
Problem for Johnson is that people don't really think like that (see Prospect Theory). Also, people on lower incomes have been fucked throughout, so the general consensus that the north is lost is probably right (particularly as they spend more (%) on fuel/energy).
There is a big pot of WFH Southern Savings that the Treasury could go after, but that cohort is the final Tory redoubt. No chance.
Cities are also just great to live in; it's worth paying extra for that (personal view though), especially if it reduces your commute.0 -
He makes the most extraordinary comments with absolutely no evidenceFarooq said:
The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.HYUFD said:
The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.Farooq said:
Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.HYUFD said:
You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You live in a world of make believeHYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together
No. Just no.1 -
Hardy perennial tweets for the next few months.
https://twitter.com/prchovanec/status/1513138781146210308
https://twitter.com/prchovanec/status/1513139541691011073
I’ve watched “normal” Republicans go from saying “Look, everyone knows Trump lost, just let him talk” to saying “Look, everyone knows there was something wrong with the election.”
They never specify what was “wrong”, because all the specific claims have been discredited and rejected by courts. They just hang their hats on the vague sense that if lots of people believe something, it must be at least partly true.1 -
Very interesting question. Where would nationals of each country prefer to move to if forced to leave their own country?kle4 said:
How common is it for people to follow through on 'If X wins I'll move' type comments? I suspect not high, and there would be easier destinations.Andy_JS said:If Le Pen wins, could London see a big influx of French people who strongly dislike her?
For me, I have chosen to live in the US. Assuming I'd have to choose somewhere other than either the US or UK, I'd probably chose either Ireland or Western Canada. The Maritimes are just too bleak for my taste, and even in Toronto, the winters are too fierce for me.0 -
....early senility.....Stark_Dawning said:
The Boris loyalists will still cling to Brexit as their man is inexorably associated with it. But when he's gone I suspect the Tories will start regarding Brexit as something akin to the Poll Tax - an aberration, something to do with early senility and a regime that had lost its way.HYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
0 -
HYUFD obviously thinks that failing to reconquer Gibraltar is a black mark against Franco.kle4 said:
If you are not a fan, why are you so confident the average Tory is a fan?HYUFD said:
The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.Farooq said:
Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.HYUFD said:
You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You live in a world of make believeHYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together1 -
Highly unlikely it was the bike that scared the crap out of themFarooq said:
I've noticed that some wildlife is unfazed by bikes even if they see you. I've managed to get close to rabbits on the road side, and birds of prey on fence posts on bike, and just stop and look at them for a while. They can see you but they just don't seem to care.kjh said:
I do the same but on a bike, off road. Organise myself and it is wonderful for all the reasons you mention. I prefer the bike to walking as (in my opinion) you see more in particular wildlife as you tend to catch it by surprise.Leon said:
Are you doing this entirely as you go? Ie carrying all your luggage as you hike?BlancheLivermore said:Have had no phone reception for the last couple of hours which was a little scary. Luckily my phone map continued showing my position and the route most of the way.
I stopped for my pistachio nut and beer lunch by a little river called Rec De Sant Miquel. More San Miguel was flowing than Sant Miquel; I didn’t need the bridge!
Also just realised I’m not going to make it to the French border today. There are no rooms I can find in Portbou, or in Cerbère just over the border, so I’ve got a room in Colera instead tonight and will head for Banyuls-sur-mer in France tomorrow.
That’s impressive, if so. Must be quite a rucksack
I’d love to do a long long walking tour (I love hiking, I love that pleasurable exhaustion at the end of the day, the much earned dinner, the deep deep sleep) what puts me off is lugging all my stuff
I know holiday companies will do it all for you but it feels a bit like cheating
I have done SW Coast of France, Normandy and Brittany and would have done Loire this spring if I hadn't broken my legs.
It doesn't seem to work with deer; they just scarper anyway. And weirdly cows seem to get more freaked out by bikes than if you're on foot.
0 -
Unicorn alert. Such a deal is not available without FoM. Being in the single market is something you either are, or are not. If the EU allowed a pick and choose position there would have been no Brexit.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You live in a world of make believeHYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
4 -
What other 2 died, it was only 2 late this morning.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a terrible toll to lose 4 horses and to be honest whipping a horse is barbaricMoonRabbit said:Stodge warned us, Eclair Surf has succumbed to yesterdays injury.😢
0 -
One needs to allow for those who were going to move anyway but don't get so much attention because reasons.kle4 said:
How common is it for people to follow through on 'If X wins I'll move' type comments? I suspect not high, and there would be easier destinations.Andy_JS said:If Le Pen wins, could London see a big influx of French people who strongly dislike her?
Lady Mone famously did it the other way round - closed her business in Scotland and moved even though her side won indyref 1.0 -
I think that those backing Rishi for PM had assumed that he had at least a modicum of political nous. There seem to be surprisingly high numbers of politicians in Westminster who lack even the basics.0
-
Sunak's mistake is that he believed he was indeed the chap who featured in his own glib, super-slick publicity, and the voters thought he was ace. Did he really think nobody would notice that he was filling up somebody else's Kia? Foolish.
All good politicians know that bad publicity is just around the corner, but Sunak doesn't seem able to cope with it. A fatal flaw - 'how dare you even comment on my wife!' - and stunningly naïve.4 -
LOL. For eagles and kites, they'll fly off at 100m if you're walking, but you can drive up fairly close in a car before they spook. Same with foxes around us.malcolmg said:
Highly unlikely it was the bike that scared the crap out of themFarooq said:
I've noticed that some wildlife is unfazed by bikes even if they see you. I've managed to get close to rabbits on the road side, and birds of prey on fence posts on bike, and just stop and look at them for a while. They can see you but they just don't seem to care.kjh said:
I do the same but on a bike, off road. Organise myself and it is wonderful for all the reasons you mention. I prefer the bike to walking as (in my opinion) you see more in particular wildlife as you tend to catch it by surprise.Leon said:
Are you doing this entirely as you go? Ie carrying all your luggage as you hike?BlancheLivermore said:Have had no phone reception for the last couple of hours which was a little scary. Luckily my phone map continued showing my position and the route most of the way.
I stopped for my pistachio nut and beer lunch by a little river called Rec De Sant Miquel. More San Miguel was flowing than Sant Miquel; I didn’t need the bridge!
Also just realised I’m not going to make it to the French border today. There are no rooms I can find in Portbou, or in Cerbère just over the border, so I’ve got a room in Colera instead tonight and will head for Banyuls-sur-mer in France tomorrow.
That’s impressive, if so. Must be quite a rucksack
I’d love to do a long long walking tour (I love hiking, I love that pleasurable exhaustion at the end of the day, the much earned dinner, the deep deep sleep) what puts me off is lugging all my stuff
I know holiday companies will do it all for you but it feels a bit like cheating
I have done SW Coast of France, Normandy and Brittany and would have done Loire this spring if I hadn't broken my legs.
It doesn't seem to work with deer; they just scarper anyway. And weirdly cows seem to get more freaked out by bikes than if you're on foot.0 -
Surprising how long it took. Which indicates a considerable degree of media manipulation both before and after.Northern_Al said:Sunak's mistake is that he believed he was indeed the chap who featured in his own glib, super-slick publicity, and the voters thought he was ace. Did he really think nobody would notice that he was filling up somebody else's Kia? Foolish.
All good politicians know that bad publicity is just around the corner, but Sunak doesn't seem able to cope with it. A fatal flaw - 'how dare you even comment on my wife!' - and stunningly naïve.0 -
A Europe drifting away from social democracy, liberal values and co-operation towards softhead national populism is not my idea of what's good for the UK.Leon said:
Bad for the EU but in what way terrible for the UK?nico679 said:The right wing press will of course love a Le Pen win just because she’s anti EU but a win for her would be terrible for the UK and the EU .
Macron is already seriously hostile. I doubt Le Pen would be worse
And a weakened, bewildered EU is in our favour
There is the Putin factor, however, if you are referring to that then fair enough
It's a bit like shitting your pants and thinking if others do the same then that improves your prospects.
Which it doesn't.4 -
I am not arguing that - I am saying you want him re-electedHYUFD said:
In the 2019 Australian general election the preferred PM polling was more accurate than the 2PP pollingBig_G_NorthWales said:
You mean you hope he will be reelectedHYUFD said:
Plus Morrison still leads on preferred PM, I remain of the view he will be narrowly re electedMoonRabbit said:I know Sunday is your PB day of rest HY, but have you noticed the Aussie election called.
Has your man Morrison waited till the last possible moment?
The polls have turn back towards the government in April. 0 -
..
Poor old Stark Raving projecting a bit there one feels.Daveyboy1961 said:
....early senility.....Stark_Dawning said:
The Boris loyalists will still cling to Brexit as their man is inexorably associated with it. But when he's gone I suspect the Tories will start regarding Brexit as something akin to the Poll Tax - an aberration, something to do with early senility and a regime that had lost its way.HYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat0 -
The non-dom status has significant inheritance tax advantages.FrankBooth said:I'm puzzled by the the decision to keep non-dom status (controversial) but stop avoiding tax on foreign income in the UK (uncontroversial).
2 -
Well what is the point of the nuclear deterrent if Russia flattens Stockholm and Helsinki and NATO just shrugs it's shoulders and says "well it's not on our patch, carry on, as you were".HYUFD said:
Even then NATO would not nuke Russia, at most it would be an airstrike and even then not guaranteed as neither are in NATO so it could just be even tighter sanctions on RussiaMexicanpete said:
You keep writing this. Do you think that the more times you write that NATO will only retaliate a strike on a NATO member the truer it becomes.HYUFD said:
Unless Putin fires a nuclear missile at a NATO nation there will be no NATO nuclear weapons fired at Russia and even then only a NATO nuclear response is guaranteed if France, the USA or UK are hit.DecrepiterJohnL said:
And the Chinese retaliation if they cannot accurately tell where incoming missiles are aimed.Benpointer said:FPT:
I think you made a similar point before and it's a very fair one but not desperately comforting.rcs1000 said:
Given the shocking state of most Russian military kit, how likely are the Russians not to have skimped on nuclear weapon maintenance?TimT said:
Indeed. Anyone with eyes and honest evidence knows that war with the West is not just unwinnable for Russia, but could only end in rout for them, unless:rottenborough said:
As he says, war with West looks more inevitable as each day goes by.CarlottaVance said:Read this interview with Karaganov (reliable bellwether of 🇷🇺ruling elite majority consensus).
If afterwards you still harbor any illusions about sustainable negotiated settlement with Putin's Kremlin on European security order read it again. And again.
https://twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1513039187527806977
Hope to God he is wrong.
1. The Putinists are very confident that they can mobilize 5th columns to great effect, or they can bring in China on their side (no other ally would make a significant difference), OR
2. It goes nuclear.
Say 90% of their warheads don't work - that still leaves a totally trashed world in the event of them being fired. Especially since the Western retaliation would presumably have to be based on assumption Russian nukes work.
China is on the other side of the world, even if closer to Russia now.
Were Russia to strike Finland or Sweden, I have no doubt the narrative changes.0 -
don't think so, I was referring to myself looking over my shoulder...Luckyguy1983 said:..
Poor old Stark Raving projecting a bit there one feels.Daveyboy1961 said:
....early senility.....Stark_Dawning said:
The Boris loyalists will still cling to Brexit as their man is inexorably associated with it. But when he's gone I suspect the Tories will start regarding Brexit as something akin to the Poll Tax - an aberration, something to do with early senility and a regime that had lost its way.HYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
0 -
I voted remain also but the idea you are a moderate conservative is for the birdsHYUFD said:
I was a Remainer in 2016, if anything I am on the moderate wing of the Tory membership now in terms of views of the EU.kle4 said:
If you are not a fan, why are you so confident the average Tory is a fan?HYUFD said:
The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.Farooq said:
Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.HYUFD said:
You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You live in a world of make believeHYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together
BigG is also far closer to Starmer Labour or Davey's LDs than the current Tory leadership, just he has not admitted it to himself yet1 -
Norway?algarkirk said:
Unicorn alert. Such a deal is not available without FoM. Being in the single market is something you either are, or are not. If the EU allowed a pick and choose position there would have been no Brexit.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You live in a world of make believeHYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade0 -
My pulses quickened yesterday when I heard in semi slumber on the radio that "Boris was facing jailtime".HYUFD said:
You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You live in a world of make believeHYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
However ...0 -
Some wise old politician (this was decades ago) pointed out that Head Boys often don't make it to the top in politics. If you are used to being promoted by others on the basis of your merits, there is something you don't develop in your temprament- some combination of emollience and sharp elbows- that is really useful for climbing greasy poles. And Head Boy is a funny role- in charge of something nebulous, but actually not in charge of anything since all the authority continues to rest with the adults.Northern_Al said:Sunak's mistake is that he believed he was indeed the chap who featured in his own glib, super-slick publicity, and the voters thought he was ace. Did he really think nobody would notice that he was filling up somebody else's Kia? Foolish.
All good politicians know that bad publicity is just around the corner, but Sunak doesn't seem able to cope with it. A fatal flaw - 'how dare you even comment on my wife!' - and stunningly naïve.
Rishi looks like another victim of that curse.2 -
We would be in a terrifying situation but I think a similar level of strike would be delivered (game theory tit for tat) probably with a massive set of conventional strikes plus making it clear that a maximum nuclear attack was readied.Mexicanpete said:
Well what is the point of the nuclear deterrent if Russia flattens Stockholm and Helsinki and NATO just shrugs it's shoulders and says "well it's not on our patch, carry on, as you were".HYUFD said:
Even then NATO would not nuke Russia, at most it would be an airstrike and even then not guaranteed as neither are in NATO so it could just be even tighter sanctions on RussiaMexicanpete said:
You keep writing this. Do you think that the more times you write that NATO will only retaliate a strike on a NATO member the truer it becomes.HYUFD said:
Unless Putin fires a nuclear missile at a NATO nation there will be no NATO nuclear weapons fired at Russia and even then only a NATO nuclear response is guaranteed if France, the USA or UK are hit.DecrepiterJohnL said:
And the Chinese retaliation if they cannot accurately tell where incoming missiles are aimed.Benpointer said:FPT:
I think you made a similar point before and it's a very fair one but not desperately comforting.rcs1000 said:
Given the shocking state of most Russian military kit, how likely are the Russians not to have skimped on nuclear weapon maintenance?TimT said:
Indeed. Anyone with eyes and honest evidence knows that war with the West is not just unwinnable for Russia, but could only end in rout for them, unless:rottenborough said:
As he says, war with West looks more inevitable as each day goes by.CarlottaVance said:Read this interview with Karaganov (reliable bellwether of 🇷🇺ruling elite majority consensus).
If afterwards you still harbor any illusions about sustainable negotiated settlement with Putin's Kremlin on European security order read it again. And again.
https://twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1513039187527806977
Hope to God he is wrong.
1. The Putinists are very confident that they can mobilize 5th columns to great effect, or they can bring in China on their side (no other ally would make a significant difference), OR
2. It goes nuclear.
Say 90% of their warheads don't work - that still leaves a totally trashed world in the event of them being fired. Especially since the Western retaliation would presumably have to be based on assumption Russian nukes work.
China is on the other side of the world, even if closer to Russia now.
Were Russia to strike Finland or Sweden, I have no doubt the narrative changes.0 -
Posting here will keep you young - look at Jack W!Daveyboy1961 said:
don't think so, I was referring to myself looking over my shoulder...Luckyguy1983 said:..
Poor old Stark Raving projecting a bit there one feels.Daveyboy1961 said:
....early senility.....Stark_Dawning said:
The Boris loyalists will still cling to Brexit as their man is inexorably associated with it. But when he's gone I suspect the Tories will start regarding Brexit as something akin to the Poll Tax - an aberration, something to do with early senility and a regime that had lost its way.HYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat0 -
No. Brexit means Brexit!. No freedom of movement here.Andy_JS said:If Le Pen wins, could London see a big influx of French people who strongly dislike her?
0 -
Pity you do not recognise reciprocityFarooq said:
Wow, that was a remarkably sensitive response given I was just doing the same thing you did.malcolmg said:
LOL, smartarse the comedienne thinks they are funny. Given you are so thick you think I am in Ayr says it all.Farooq said:
I expect most people are just grateful to not be in Ayrmalcolmg said:
Why would you want to shop in Inverness in the first place.Eabhal said:
My personal campaign is to get better poverty indicators: "After Housing Costs" is useless if live in Ullapool or something, and it costs you £50 to go shopping in Inverness.Farooq said:
Yes, fuel poverty is much more a northern problem than a southern one. You're right to focus on these regional differences.Eabhal said:FPT: On the cost of living theory crisis, the caveat is that the savings ratio was insanely high during lockdown (among Tory income levels, at least), and discretionary spending hasn't rocketed after restrictions eased.
In theory, this means there is a lot of flex in Tory household budgets, which should neuter the problem somewhat.
Problem for Johnson is that people don't really think like that (see Prospect Theory). Also, people on lower incomes have been fucked throughout, so the general consensus that the north is lost is probably right (particularly as they spend more (%) on fuel/energy).
There is a big pot of WFH Southern Savings that the Treasury could go after, but that cohort is the final Tory redoubt. No chance.
Cities are also just great to live in; it's worth paying extra for that (personal view though), especially if it reduces your commute.
Calm down, dear, it was just a joke.0 -
Schengen? Mornington Crescent!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Norway?algarkirk said:
Unicorn alert. Such a deal is not available without FoM. Being in the single market is something you either are, or are not. If the EU allowed a pick and choose position there would have been no Brexit.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You live in a world of make believeHYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade2 -
With what happened last time, and the polls already giving government better scores, I’d call it a toss up. But a toss up call makes the longer odds you can get the value bet?HYUFD said:
In the 2019 Australian general election the preferred PM polling was more accurate than the 2PP pollingBig_G_NorthWales said:
You mean you hope he will be reelectedHYUFD said:
Plus Morrison still leads on preferred PM, I remain of the view he will be narrowly re electedMoonRabbit said:I know Sunday is your PB day of rest HY, but have you noticed the Aussie election called.
Has your man Morrison waited till the last possible moment?
The polls have turn back towards the government in April.
Last I looked the best PM was even Steven.1 -
4 in total during the festivalmalcolmg said:
What other 2 died, it was only 2 late this morning.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a terrible toll to lose 4 horses and to be honest whipping a horse is barbaricMoonRabbit said:Stodge warned us, Eclair Surf has succumbed to yesterdays injury.😢
Sorry if I was not clear Malc
0 -
Nobody should admire Franco for any reason. Of course HYUFD talks again of stuff he didn't live thru' (unlike many of us who were around when he was in power and visited Spain), although a quick look at Wikipedia answers the question as to whether he should be admired for anything.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He makes the most extraordinary comments with absolutely no evidenceFarooq said:
The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.HYUFD said:
The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.Farooq said:
Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.HYUFD said:
You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You live in a world of make believeHYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together
No. Just no.1 -
Was that not due to the business due to be going under though and seeing rich pickings at WestminsterCarnyx said:
One needs to allow for those who were going to move anyway but don't get so much attention because reasons.kle4 said:
How common is it for people to follow through on 'If X wins I'll move' type comments? I suspect not high, and there would be easier destinations.Andy_JS said:If Le Pen wins, could London see a big influx of French people who strongly dislike her?
Lady Mone famously did it the other way round - closed her business in Scotland and moved even though her side won indyref 1.0 -
Odd remark. It's an established piece of Tory folklore that the Poll Tax came about because Maggie had started to go a bit gaga.Luckyguy1983 said:..
Poor old Stark Raving projecting a bit there one feels.Daveyboy1961 said:
....early senility.....Stark_Dawning said:
The Boris loyalists will still cling to Brexit as their man is inexorably associated with it. But when he's gone I suspect the Tories will start regarding Brexit as something akin to the Poll Tax - an aberration, something to do with early senility and a regime that had lost its way.HYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat0 -
As all of the moderate conservatives have been purged, HY probably is moderate. I just don't get what motivates people to defend the very things they are against just because their side is doing it...Big_G_NorthWales said:
I voted remain also but the idea you are a moderate conservative is for the birdsHYUFD said:
I was a Remainer in 2016, if anything I am on the moderate wing of the Tory membership now in terms of views of the EU.kle4 said:
If you are not a fan, why are you so confident the average Tory is a fan?HYUFD said:
The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.Farooq said:
Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.HYUFD said:
You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You live in a world of make believeHYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together
BigG is also far closer to Starmer Labour or Davey's LDs than the current Tory leadership, just he has not admitted it to himself yet0 -
You know the answer to this. The nuclear deterrent is meant to protect those who possess it from nuclear attack. It deters nuclear attack upon those nations, as the would-be attacker knows that in return they will be nuked. Clearly it doesn't deter them from attacking a completely different country.Mexicanpete said:
Well what is the point of the nuclear deterrent if Russia flattens Stockholm and Helsinki and NATO just shrugs it's shoulders and says "well it's not on our patch, carry on, as you were".HYUFD said:
Even then NATO would not nuke Russia, at most it would be an airstrike and even then not guaranteed as neither are in NATO so it could just be even tighter sanctions on RussiaMexicanpete said:
You keep writing this. Do you think that the more times you write that NATO will only retaliate a strike on a NATO member the truer it becomes.HYUFD said:
Unless Putin fires a nuclear missile at a NATO nation there will be no NATO nuclear weapons fired at Russia and even then only a NATO nuclear response is guaranteed if France, the USA or UK are hit.DecrepiterJohnL said:
And the Chinese retaliation if they cannot accurately tell where incoming missiles are aimed.Benpointer said:FPT:
I think you made a similar point before and it's a very fair one but not desperately comforting.rcs1000 said:
Given the shocking state of most Russian military kit, how likely are the Russians not to have skimped on nuclear weapon maintenance?TimT said:
Indeed. Anyone with eyes and honest evidence knows that war with the West is not just unwinnable for Russia, but could only end in rout for them, unless:rottenborough said:
As he says, war with West looks more inevitable as each day goes by.CarlottaVance said:Read this interview with Karaganov (reliable bellwether of 🇷🇺ruling elite majority consensus).
If afterwards you still harbor any illusions about sustainable negotiated settlement with Putin's Kremlin on European security order read it again. And again.
https://twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1513039187527806977
Hope to God he is wrong.
1. The Putinists are very confident that they can mobilize 5th columns to great effect, or they can bring in China on their side (no other ally would make a significant difference), OR
2. It goes nuclear.
Say 90% of their warheads don't work - that still leaves a totally trashed world in the event of them being fired. Especially since the Western retaliation would presumably have to be based on assumption Russian nukes work.
China is on the other side of the world, even if closer to Russia now.
Were Russia to strike Finland or Sweden, I have no doubt the narrative changes.0 -
Really the problem is that most of his approval rating was based on massive state spending at stable prices. When you raise the finance to pay for the spending and prices start to inflate, people start to hate you, and a marital-fiscal embarrassment turns into a terminal blow.NorthofStoke said:I think that those backing Rishi for PM had assumed that he had at least a modicum of political nous. There seem to be surprisingly high numbers of politicians in Westminster who lack even the basics.
0 -
It was an ott response. I apologise.Stark_Dawning said:
Odd remark. It's an established piece of Tory folklore that the Poll Tax came about because Maggie had started to go a bit gaga.Luckyguy1983 said:..
Poor old Stark Raving projecting a bit there one feels.Daveyboy1961 said:
....early senility.....Stark_Dawning said:
The Boris loyalists will still cling to Brexit as their man is inexorably associated with it. But when he's gone I suspect the Tories will start regarding Brexit as something akin to the Poll Tax - an aberration, something to do with early senility and a regime that had lost its way.HYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat1 -
Yes it does, and I think the opposition parties are storing that one up for use shortly. As in: 'What's the advantage of non-dom status for Mrs S? Answer: To avoid the inheritance tax that the rest of us in the UK have to pay'.CarlottaVance said:
The non-dom status has significant inheritance tax advantages.FrankBooth said:I'm puzzled by the the decision to keep non-dom status (controversial) but stop avoiding tax on foreign income in the UK (uncontroversial).
0 -
At least HYUFD doesn't pretend unlike you. Why don't you leave him alone?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I voted remain also but the idea you are a moderate conservative is for the birdsHYUFD said:
I was a Remainer in 2016, if anything I am on the moderate wing of the Tory membership now in terms of views of the EU.kle4 said:
If you are not a fan, why are you so confident the average Tory is a fan?HYUFD said:
The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.Farooq said:
Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.HYUFD said:
You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You live in a world of make believeHYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together
BigG is also far closer to Starmer Labour or Davey's LDs than the current Tory leadership, just he has not admitted it to himself yet1 -
Yep. They haven’t quashed this story. Until the Sunaks fully normalise their tax status (at huge cost to themselves - esp re inheritance tax) the knives will be out and he’ll be bought down sooner or later. It’s an untenable position.CarlottaVance said:
The non-dom status has significant inheritance tax advantages.FrankBooth said:I'm puzzled by the the decision to keep non-dom status (controversial) but stop avoiding tax on foreign income in the UK (uncontroversial).
Rishi either hasn’t realised this, or intends to put up a stand and die on the hill of tax avoidance. If you’re gonna be a British minister, especially CoftE or PM, you have to be whiter then white on this stuff.
Silly man.0 -
Arsenal are rock solid at the moment 😂Big_G_NorthWales said:
They need to play united every week !!!!TimT said:Wow. I had not realized how horrible Everton's line up of opponents until the end of the season. Leicester twice, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal. Hard to see how they get the points to stay up.
2 -
No worries!Luckyguy1983 said:
It was an ott response. I apologise.Stark_Dawning said:
Odd remark. It's an established piece of Tory folklore that the Poll Tax came about because Maggie had started to go a bit gaga.Luckyguy1983 said:..
Poor old Stark Raving projecting a bit there one feels.Daveyboy1961 said:
....early senility.....Stark_Dawning said:
The Boris loyalists will still cling to Brexit as their man is inexorably associated with it. But when he's gone I suspect the Tories will start regarding Brexit as something akin to the Poll Tax - an aberration, something to do with early senility and a regime that had lost its way.HYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat0 -
I will adjust my tin ear, or should I say my Rishi earFarooq said:
I will recognise it if you domalcolmg said:
Pity you do not recognise reciprocityFarooq said:
Wow, that was a remarkably sensitive response given I was just doing the same thing you did.malcolmg said:
LOL, smartarse the comedienne thinks they are funny. Given you are so thick you think I am in Ayr says it all.Farooq said:
I expect most people are just grateful to not be in Ayrmalcolmg said:
Why would you want to shop in Inverness in the first place.Eabhal said:
My personal campaign is to get better poverty indicators: "After Housing Costs" is useless if live in Ullapool or something, and it costs you £50 to go shopping in Inverness.Farooq said:
Yes, fuel poverty is much more a northern problem than a southern one. You're right to focus on these regional differences.Eabhal said:FPT: On the cost of living theory crisis, the caveat is that the savings ratio was insanely high during lockdown (among Tory income levels, at least), and discretionary spending hasn't rocketed after restrictions eased.
In theory, this means there is a lot of flex in Tory household budgets, which should neuter the problem somewhat.
Problem for Johnson is that people don't really think like that (see Prospect Theory). Also, people on lower incomes have been fucked throughout, so the general consensus that the north is lost is probably right (particularly as they spend more (%) on fuel/energy).
There is a big pot of WFH Southern Savings that the Treasury could go after, but that cohort is the final Tory redoubt. No chance.
Cities are also just great to live in; it's worth paying extra for that (personal view though), especially if it reduces your commute.
Calm down, dear, it was just a joke.
0 -
Something pretty close was on offer- May's deal looked a lot like a single market in goods without freedom of movement. The price of that was permanent alignment on EU market standards. And the ERG weren't having that.algarkirk said:
Unicorn alert. Such a deal is not available without FoM. Being in the single market is something you either are, or are not. If the EU allowed a pick and choose position there would have been no Brexit.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You live in a world of make believeHYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
Barnier's Staircase was all about pick and choose. But also the idea that the choices had consequences. What wasn't negotiable was the idea that seamless access required alignment. And that's a pretty fundamental point to ask the EU to concede on.1 -
Do enlighten me. Or am I expected to take this pathetic riposte complete with split infinitive as the last word on the matter?Farooq said:
That's clearly false, and you demonstrably know nothing about this subject if you think that's true.Luckyguy1983 said:
You know the answer to this. The nuclear deterrent is meant to protect those who possess it from nuclear attack. It deters nuclear attack upon those nations, as the would-be attacker knows that in return they will be nuked. Clearly it doesn't deter them from attacking a completely different country.Mexicanpete said:
Well what is the point of the nuclear deterrent if Russia flattens Stockholm and Helsinki and NATO just shrugs it's shoulders and says "well it's not on our patch, carry on, as you were".HYUFD said:
Even then NATO would not nuke Russia, at most it would be an airstrike and even then not guaranteed as neither are in NATO so it could just be even tighter sanctions on RussiaMexicanpete said:
You keep writing this. Do you think that the more times you write that NATO will only retaliate a strike on a NATO member the truer it becomes.HYUFD said:
Unless Putin fires a nuclear missile at a NATO nation there will be no NATO nuclear weapons fired at Russia and even then only a NATO nuclear response is guaranteed if France, the USA or UK are hit.DecrepiterJohnL said:
And the Chinese retaliation if they cannot accurately tell where incoming missiles are aimed.Benpointer said:FPT:
I think you made a similar point before and it's a very fair one but not desperately comforting.rcs1000 said:
Given the shocking state of most Russian military kit, how likely are the Russians not to have skimped on nuclear weapon maintenance?TimT said:
Indeed. Anyone with eyes and honest evidence knows that war with the West is not just unwinnable for Russia, but could only end in rout for them, unless:rottenborough said:
As he says, war with West looks more inevitable as each day goes by.CarlottaVance said:Read this interview with Karaganov (reliable bellwether of 🇷🇺ruling elite majority consensus).
If afterwards you still harbor any illusions about sustainable negotiated settlement with Putin's Kremlin on European security order read it again. And again.
https://twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1513039187527806977
Hope to God he is wrong.
1. The Putinists are very confident that they can mobilize 5th columns to great effect, or they can bring in China on their side (no other ally would make a significant difference), OR
2. It goes nuclear.
Say 90% of their warheads don't work - that still leaves a totally trashed world in the event of them being fired. Especially since the Western retaliation would presumably have to be based on assumption Russian nukes work.
China is on the other side of the world, even if closer to Russia now.
Were Russia to strike Finland or Sweden, I have no doubt the narrative changes.0 -
That's true but he could have managed the hard decision phase and remained a contender. What I'm referring to is the tax arrangements and also his belated response. Astonishing he didn't see it coming and made defensive adjustments years ago.EPG said:
Really the problem is that most of his approval rating was based on massive state spending at stable prices. When you raise the finance to pay for the spending and prices start to inflate, people start to hate you, and a marital-fiscal embarrassment turns into a terminal blow.NorthofStoke said:I think that those backing Rishi for PM had assumed that he had at least a modicum of political nous. There seem to be surprisingly high numbers of politicians in Westminster who lack even the basics.
0 -
Which would be true if he had actually been “head boy” but he wasn’t.Stuartinromford said:
Some wise old politician (this was decades ago) pointed out that Head Boys often don't make it to the top in politics. If you are used to being promoted by others on the basis of your merits, there is something you don't develop in your temprament- some combination of emollience and sharp elbows- that is really useful for climbing greasy poles. And Head Boy is a funny role- in charge of something nebulous, but actually not in charge of anything since all the authority continues to rest with the adults.Northern_Al said:Sunak's mistake is that he believed he was indeed the chap who featured in his own glib, super-slick publicity, and the voters thought he was ace. Did he really think nobody would notice that he was filling up somebody else's Kia? Foolish.
All good politicians know that bad publicity is just around the corner, but Sunak doesn't seem able to cope with it. A fatal flaw - 'how dare you even comment on my wife!' - and stunningly naïve.
Rishi looks like another victim of that curse.0 -
Slightly unfortunate wording ...ping said:
Yep. They haven’t quashed this story. Until the Sunaks fully normalise their tax status (at huge cost to themselves - esp re inheritance tax) the knives will be out and he’ll be bought down sooner or later. It’s an untenable position.CarlottaVance said:
The non-dom status has significant inheritance tax advantages.FrankBooth said:I'm puzzled by the the decision to keep non-dom status (controversial) but stop avoiding tax on foreign income in the UK (uncontroversial).
Rishi either hasn’t realised this, or intends to put up a stand and die on the hill of tax avoidance. If you’re gonna be a British minister, especially CoftE or PM, you have to be whiter then white on this stuff.
Silly man.0 -
FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: TURNOUT 65.0% AT 1700 CET (2017: 69.4%) #Presidentielle2022 #Election2022 #France0
-
I'm with HYUFD. In fact, I think that the Tories should base their next election campaign on how much pride modern Tories take in being the heirs to Franco and Pinochet. Please.6
-
Johnson will be delighted as he manifests in Ukraine seeking a slice of vicarious war kudos. He survives all of his scandals and now sees the main alternative to his leadership brought low by his own. I think this man has made a pact with Lucifer. The luck is too extreme to be explained any other way.ping said:Most recommended comment in the ft;
“Thinned skinned Rishi is clearly angry that information that it was clearly in the public interest to be released has come into the public domain.
Rather than ruefully and genuinely admit he and his wife should have done things differently he demands that the state engages in a witch hunt. Everyone else is to blame but the pair of them I guess.
Shows the stature of the man really. He's proved himself to be unfit for high office.”
https://www.ft.com/content/4c225e8d-edcf-4e09-a69f-10044837ed34#comments-anchor
And the DM highest rated comments are terrible for Rishi, too;
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10704465/Rishi-orders-hunt-Red-Throat-leaker-wifes-non-dom-tax-status.html
When you unite the FT and the DM readers against you, you’ve got a serious problem.1 -
When does the poll closeGary_Burton said:FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: TURNOUT 65.0% AT 1700 CET (2017: 69.4%) #Presidentielle2022 #Election2022 #France
0 -
It’s just a figure of speech, not a dog whistle.Carnyx said:
Slightly unfortunate wording ...ping said:
Yep. They haven’t quashed this story. Until the Sunaks fully normalise their tax status (at huge cost to themselves - esp re inheritance tax) the knives will be out and he’ll be bought down sooner or later. It’s an untenable position.CarlottaVance said:
The non-dom status has significant inheritance tax advantages.FrankBooth said:I'm puzzled by the the decision to keep non-dom status (controversial) but stop avoiding tax on foreign income in the UK (uncontroversial).
Rishi either hasn’t realised this, or intends to put up a stand and die on the hill of tax avoidance. If you’re gonna be a British minister, especially CoftE or PM, you have to be whiter then white on this stuff.
Silly man.0 -
It actually doesn't really matter what the reasons were, in this or other cases: it just shows the bad faith. And the lack of credibility of a signigicant percentage of such promises. Though not as bad as Vote No to Stay in the EU.malcolmg said:
Was that not due to the business due to be going under though and seeing rich pickings at WestminsterCarnyx said:
One needs to allow for those who were going to move anyway but don't get so much attention because reasons.kle4 said:
How common is it for people to follow through on 'If X wins I'll move' type comments? I suspect not high, and there would be easier destinations.Andy_JS said:If Le Pen wins, could London see a big influx of French people who strongly dislike her?
Lady Mone famously did it the other way round - closed her business in Scotland and moved even though her side won indyref 1.0 -
BigG strikes me as an exceptionally moderate and mild-mannered Conservative. In the same manner as (say) Southam for Labour. Both have their own angles and opinions on events, but neither have ever struck me as extreme.CorrectHorseBattery said:
At least HYUFD doesn't pretend unlike you. Why don't you leave him alone?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I voted remain also but the idea you are a moderate conservative is for the birdsHYUFD said:
I was a Remainer in 2016, if anything I am on the moderate wing of the Tory membership now in terms of views of the EU.kle4 said:
If you are not a fan, why are you so confident the average Tory is a fan?HYUFD said:
The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.Farooq said:
Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.HYUFD said:
You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You live in a world of make believeHYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together
BigG is also far closer to Starmer Labour or Davey's LDs than the current Tory leadership, just he has not admitted it to himself yet3 -
Oh, quite - I certainly didn't think you were getting oiut the whistle.ping said:
It’s just a figure of speech, not a dog whistle.Carnyx said:
Slightly unfortunate wording ...ping said:
Yep. They haven’t quashed this story. Until the Sunaks fully normalise their tax status (at huge cost to themselves - esp re inheritance tax) the knives will be out and he’ll be bought down sooner or later. It’s an untenable position.CarlottaVance said:
The non-dom status has significant inheritance tax advantages.FrankBooth said:I'm puzzled by the the decision to keep non-dom status (controversial) but stop avoiding tax on foreign income in the UK (uncontroversial).
Rishi either hasn’t realised this, or intends to put up a stand and die on the hill of tax avoidance. If you’re gonna be a British minister, especially CoftE or PM, you have to be whiter then white on this stuff.
Silly man.0 -
He's like Punch. Even when the devil comes for him, he'll probably manage to bash him on the bonce and say 'that's the way to do it!'.kinabalu said:
Johnson will be delighted as he manifests in Ukraine seeking a slice of vicarious war kudos. He survives all of his scandals and now sees the main alternative to his leadership brought low by his own. I think this man has made a pact with Lucifer. The luck is too extreme to be explained any other way.ping said:Most recommended comment in the ft;
“Thinned skinned Rishi is clearly angry that information that it was clearly in the public interest to be released has come into the public domain.
Rather than ruefully and genuinely admit he and his wife should have done things differently he demands that the state engages in a witch hunt. Everyone else is to blame but the pair of them I guess.
Shows the stature of the man really. He's proved himself to be unfit for high office.”
https://www.ft.com/content/4c225e8d-edcf-4e09-a69f-10044837ed34#comments-anchor
And the DM highest rated comments are terrible for Rishi, too;
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10704465/Rishi-orders-hunt-Red-Throat-leaker-wifes-non-dom-tax-status.html
When you unite the FT and the DM readers against you, you’ve got a serious problem.0 -
7pm our time.Big_G_NorthWales said:
When does the poll closeGary_Burton said:FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: TURNOUT 65.0% AT 1700 CET (2017: 69.4%) #Presidentielle2022 #Election2022 #France
2 -
Thanks NickNickPalmer said:
7pm our time.Big_G_NorthWales said:
When does the poll closeGary_Burton said:FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: TURNOUT 65.0% AT 1700 CET (2017: 69.4%) #Presidentielle2022 #Election2022 #France
0 -
There would seem to be little point in looking up a concept that isn't in any way applicable to what I wrote, which remains completely true. We have no agreements with any other countries to use our nuclear deterrent on their behalf, indeed such a notion would undermine the entire point of us having it.Farooq said:
Well you can look into the concept of the nuclear umbrella for starters. This concept covers a range of formal and informal agreements to provide security against catastrophic attack by a mutual enemy.Luckyguy1983 said:
Do enlighten me. Or am I expected to take this pathetic riposte complete with split infinitive as the last word on the matter?Farooq said:
That's clearly false, and you demonstrably know nothing about this subject if you think that's true.Luckyguy1983 said:
You know the answer to this. The nuclear deterrent is meant to protect those who possess it from nuclear attack. It deters nuclear attack upon those nations, as the would-be attacker knows that in return they will be nuked. Clearly it doesn't deter them from attacking a completely different country.Mexicanpete said:
Well what is the point of the nuclear deterrent if Russia flattens Stockholm and Helsinki and NATO just shrugs it's shoulders and says "well it's not on our patch, carry on, as you were".HYUFD said:
Even then NATO would not nuke Russia, at most it would be an airstrike and even then not guaranteed as neither are in NATO so it could just be even tighter sanctions on RussiaMexicanpete said:
You keep writing this. Do you think that the more times you write that NATO will only retaliate a strike on a NATO member the truer it becomes.HYUFD said:
Unless Putin fires a nuclear missile at a NATO nation there will be no NATO nuclear weapons fired at Russia and even then only a NATO nuclear response is guaranteed if France, the USA or UK are hit.DecrepiterJohnL said:
And the Chinese retaliation if they cannot accurately tell where incoming missiles are aimed.Benpointer said:FPT:
I think you made a similar point before and it's a very fair one but not desperately comforting.rcs1000 said:
Given the shocking state of most Russian military kit, how likely are the Russians not to have skimped on nuclear weapon maintenance?TimT said:
Indeed. Anyone with eyes and honest evidence knows that war with the West is not just unwinnable for Russia, but could only end in rout for them, unless:rottenborough said:
As he says, war with West looks more inevitable as each day goes by.CarlottaVance said:Read this interview with Karaganov (reliable bellwether of 🇷🇺ruling elite majority consensus).
If afterwards you still harbor any illusions about sustainable negotiated settlement with Putin's Kremlin on European security order read it again. And again.
https://twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1513039187527806977
Hope to God he is wrong.
1. The Putinists are very confident that they can mobilize 5th columns to great effect, or they can bring in China on their side (no other ally would make a significant difference), OR
2. It goes nuclear.
Say 90% of their warheads don't work - that still leaves a totally trashed world in the event of them being fired. Especially since the Western retaliation would presumably have to be based on assumption Russian nukes work.
China is on the other side of the world, even if closer to Russia now.
Were Russia to strike Finland or Sweden, I have no doubt the narrative changes.
Whilst you're at it, you might want to look up what a split infinitive is. Not that I mind doing it, it's perfectly fine to not avoid doing it, but I didn't in the above post.0 -
"current Tory voters" isn't a big enough bloc to win a general election.HYUFD said:
You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You live in a world of make believeHYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members1 -
I get a feeling that 5.5 might be value.Andy_JS said:Betfair Exchange, first round winner:
Macron 1.18 / 1.25
Le Pen 4.2 / 6.2
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.193139730
Smarkets, first round winner:
Macron 1.17 / 1.26
Le Pen 5.5 / 7,2
https://smarkets.com/event/42417380/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022-first-round-winner
If Le Pen comes first tonight, take the opportunity to pile on Macron to win the presidency as his price goes out.0 -
From the DMping said:
Yep. They haven’t quashed this story. Until the Sunaks fully normalise their tax status (at huge cost to themselves - esp re inheritance tax) the knives will be out and he’ll be bought down sooner or later. It’s an untenable position.CarlottaVance said:
The non-dom status has significant inheritance tax advantages.FrankBooth said:I'm puzzled by the the decision to keep non-dom status (controversial) but stop avoiding tax on foreign income in the UK (uncontroversial).
Rishi either hasn’t realised this, or intends to put up a stand and die on the hill of tax avoidance. If you’re gonna be a British minister, especially CoftE or PM, you have to be whiter then white on this stuff.
Silly man.
"Friends of Mr Sunak say he considered resigning over the row last week.
One said: 'He feels very bad for the way that Akshata has been impacted because of his career.
'In the end they decided to do the U-turn, but it was a close-run thing, and if this carries on he might still decide that is it not worth the stress.'"
With friends like that who needs enemies? The narrative should be we have decided to put matters right in any event, not we only coughed up as the price of hanging in there as Chancellor. Absolutely terrible quote.
Realistically he has to go. He and Johnson have a joint interest in making it a soft landing, him to protect his CV and Johnson so this doesn't look like sleaze and incompetence.0 -
Surely how much money the Tories can take from their voters pockets and put in the pockets of themselves and their patrons. With the important caveat that if you feel poor after they have taken your money then its your fault for being too woke.Northern_Al said:I'm with HYUFD. In fact, I think that the Tories should base their next election campaign on how much pride modern Tories take in being the heirs to Franco and Pinochet. Please.
1 -
He didn't get to be big G without coertion and battle plans.JosiasJessop said:
BigG strikes me as an exceptionally moderate and mild-mannered Conservative. In the same manner as (say) Southam for Labour. Both have their own angles and opinions on events, but neither have ever struck me as extreme.CorrectHorseBattery said:
At least HYUFD doesn't pretend unlike you. Why don't you leave him alone?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I voted remain also but the idea you are a moderate conservative is for the birdsHYUFD said:
I was a Remainer in 2016, if anything I am on the moderate wing of the Tory membership now in terms of views of the EU.kle4 said:
If you are not a fan, why are you so confident the average Tory is a fan?HYUFD said:
The average Tory member is probably more a fan of Franco than the EU now.Farooq said:
Mate, you are a fan of Franco. I think G is more in tune with Conservative voters than you are.HYUFD said:
You are a Remain voter who voted for Blair and has never been a great fan of Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You live in a world of make believeHYUFD said:
Of course it is, given the vast majority of Tory voters let alone Tory members are still strongly pro Brexit and the Brexit deal we have. That will continue to be the case for at least a generationStark_Dawning said:
Is the Leaver/Remainer thing still a dynamic though? I get the impression that the Tories are now seeing Brexit as something of an embarrassment best forgotten about. (The last strained attempt to make a virtue out of it was the stuff with Rees-Mogg and The Sun but I doubt there'll be any repetition of that - just too silly.)HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
I am in favour of brexit but want a deal that draws the UK - EU closer together especially on trade
That rather proves my point, you are hardly typical of most current Tory voters and Tory members
I never said I was a fan of his anyway, just he did keep Spain together
BigG is also far closer to Starmer Labour or Davey's LDs than the current Tory leadership, just he has not admitted it to himself yet
South Wales has long felt threatened, and allegedly guests at Big G castle have been served leek soup with a clear Northern buttery taste.
As I understand it he's prepared to snub a nose, maybe two, to seize the lands under the G mark.2 -
I am not sure what a soft landing looks like in this case. He can't be given responsibility over anything that has a bearing on taxation, immigration, business, or nationality issues, so that rules out most cabinet posts except possibly health. He can't be given leadership over a task force or a public body for the same reason.IshmaelZ said:
From the DMping said:
Yep. They haven’t quashed this story. Until the Sunaks fully normalise their tax status (at huge cost to themselves - esp re inheritance tax) the knives will be out and he’ll be bought down sooner or later. It’s an untenable position.CarlottaVance said:
The non-dom status has significant inheritance tax advantages.FrankBooth said:I'm puzzled by the the decision to keep non-dom status (controversial) but stop avoiding tax on foreign income in the UK (uncontroversial).
Rishi either hasn’t realised this, or intends to put up a stand and die on the hill of tax avoidance. If you’re gonna be a British minister, especially CoftE or PM, you have to be whiter then white on this stuff.
Silly man.
"Friends of Mr Sunak say he considered resigning over the row last week.
One said: 'He feels very bad for the way that Akshata has been impacted because of his career.
'In the end they decided to do the U-turn, but it was a close-run thing, and if this carries on he might still decide that is it not worth the stress.'"
With friends like that who needs enemies? The narrative should be we have decided to put matters right in any event, not we only coughed up as the price of hanging in there as Chancellor. Absolutely terrible quote.
Realistically he has to go. He and Johnson have a joint interest in making it a soft landing, him to protect his CV and Johnson so this doesn't look like sleaze and incompetence.0 -
So the chancellor's wife still doesn't consider the UK her permanent home. If it was the chancellor himself he'd be toast. As it's his wife instead I'd probably let him off. But many won't.0
-
Liverpool’s next three opponents:TimT said:Wow. I had not realized how horrible Everton's line up of opponents until the end of the season. Leicester twice, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal. Hard to see how they get the points to stay up.
Man City
Man United
Everton
I’ve not really followed much of the football this season, but I think tonight’s result probably decides the league. Just paid up the PPV to watch the match.0 -
Hunt is far more likely to be PM than Tugendhat.HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
It's almost as if those compiling the odds have never spoken to a Tory MP....2 -
Remain/Leave is very much yesterday's argument.MarqueeMark said:
Hunt is far more likely to be PM than Tugendhat.HYUFD said:
Rather ridiculous given Tugendhat is a Remainer unlike Sunak and not even in the Cabinet.Andy_JS said:Rishi Sunak is about to be overtaken by Tom Tugendhat for second place in the next Tory leader stakes on BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
Wallace should be in the top 3 to succeed Boris alongside Truss and Sunak, not Tugendhat
It's almost as if those compiling the odds have never spoken to a Tory MP....0 -
Quordle in six...
Daily Quordle 76
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quordle.com
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I think he will leave politics. A soft landing is resign to pursue other interests in a month or soLuckyguy1983 said:
I am not sure what a soft landing looks like in this case. He can't be given responsibility over anything that has a bearing on taxation, immigration, business, or nationality issues, so that rules out most cabinet posts except possibly health. He can't be given leadership over a task force or a public body for the same reason.IshmaelZ said:
From the DMping said:
Yep. They haven’t quashed this story. Until the Sunaks fully normalise their tax status (at huge cost to themselves - esp re inheritance tax) the knives will be out and he’ll be bought down sooner or later. It’s an untenable position.CarlottaVance said:
The non-dom status has significant inheritance tax advantages.FrankBooth said:I'm puzzled by the the decision to keep non-dom status (controversial) but stop avoiding tax on foreign income in the UK (uncontroversial).
Rishi either hasn’t realised this, or intends to put up a stand and die on the hill of tax avoidance. If you’re gonna be a British minister, especially CoftE or PM, you have to be whiter then white on this stuff.
Silly man.
"Friends of Mr Sunak say he considered resigning over the row last week.
One said: 'He feels very bad for the way that Akshata has been impacted because of his career.
'In the end they decided to do the U-turn, but it was a close-run thing, and if this carries on he might still decide that is it not worth the stress.'"
With friends like that who needs enemies? The narrative should be we have decided to put matters right in any event, not we only coughed up as the price of hanging in there as Chancellor. Absolutely terrible quote.
Realistically he has to go. He and Johnson have a joint interest in making it a soft landing, him to protect his CV and Johnson so this doesn't look like sleaze and incompetence.
Here's a thought: what if no Ukraine and a Sunak driven vonc? Would Johnson have detonated this bomb to collapse the vonc and buy a year's safety?0 -
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50068.htmLuckyguy1983 said:
There would seem to be little point in looking up a concept that isn't in any way applicable to what I wrote, which remains completely true. We have no agreements with any other countries to use our nuclear deterrent on their behalf, indeed such a notion would undermine the entire point of us having it.Farooq said:
Well you can look into the concept of the nuclear umbrella for starters. This concept covers a range of formal and informal agreements to provide security against catastrophic attack by a mutual enemy.Luckyguy1983 said:
Do enlighten me. Or am I expected to take this pathetic riposte complete with split infinitive as the last word on the matter?Farooq said:
That's clearly false, and you demonstrably know nothing about this subject if you think that's true.Luckyguy1983 said:
You know the answer to this. The nuclear deterrent is meant to protect those who possess it from nuclear attack. It deters nuclear attack upon those nations, as the would-be attacker knows that in return they will be nuked. Clearly it doesn't deter them from attacking a completely different country.Mexicanpete said:
Well what is the point of the nuclear deterrent if Russia flattens Stockholm and Helsinki and NATO just shrugs it's shoulders and says "well it's not on our patch, carry on, as you were".HYUFD said:
Even then NATO would not nuke Russia, at most it would be an airstrike and even then not guaranteed as neither are in NATO so it could just be even tighter sanctions on RussiaMexicanpete said:
You keep writing this. Do you think that the more times you write that NATO will only retaliate a strike on a NATO member the truer it becomes.HYUFD said:
Unless Putin fires a nuclear missile at a NATO nation there will be no NATO nuclear weapons fired at Russia and even then only a NATO nuclear response is guaranteed if France, the USA or UK are hit.DecrepiterJohnL said:
And the Chinese retaliation if they cannot accurately tell where incoming missiles are aimed.Benpointer said:FPT:
I think you made a similar point before and it's a very fair one but not desperately comforting.rcs1000 said:
Given the shocking state of most Russian military kit, how likely are the Russians not to have skimped on nuclear weapon maintenance?TimT said:
Indeed. Anyone with eyes and honest evidence knows that war with the West is not just unwinnable for Russia, but could only end in rout for them, unless:rottenborough said:
As he says, war with West looks more inevitable as each day goes by.CarlottaVance said:Read this interview with Karaganov (reliable bellwether of 🇷🇺ruling elite majority consensus).
If afterwards you still harbor any illusions about sustainable negotiated settlement with Putin's Kremlin on European security order read it again. And again.
https://twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1513039187527806977
Hope to God he is wrong.
1. The Putinists are very confident that they can mobilize 5th columns to great effect, or they can bring in China on their side (no other ally would make a significant difference), OR
2. It goes nuclear.
Say 90% of their warheads don't work - that still leaves a totally trashed world in the event of them being fired. Especially since the Western retaliation would presumably have to be based on assumption Russian nukes work.
China is on the other side of the world, even if closer to Russia now.
Were Russia to strike Finland or Sweden, I have no doubt the narrative changes.
Whilst you're at it, you might want to look up what a split infinitive is. Not that I mind doing it, it's perfectly fine to not avoid doing it, but I didn't in the above post.0 -
Number of Oblasts in Ukraine =24
Number until complete Russian control after 46 days of war = 0
Remember 2 of the Oblasts had been partially invaded in 2014. Crimea is an autonomous republic.1
