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If the polls are right Macron is heading for victory – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,625
edited April 2022 in General
imageIf the polls are right Macron is heading for victory – politicalbetting.com

After what can only be described as a lackluster Presidential campaign France goes to the polls tomorrow with predictions of a very low turnout. In that situation, we could just be in for a shock.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,086
    First
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,343
    Second like Le Pen?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,849
    The final round will not be a low turnout.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,310
    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Amazing what AI can do these days.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,119
    Thanks for this Mike.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,849
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Amazing what AI can do these days.
    There is no way that AI turns our favourite lumpen PM in to that. Human forces are at work... very weird forces!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,522
    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    How did you create this? :curious:
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,843
    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    A Knight to Remember.....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Laura Kuenssberg Translator
    @BBCLauraKT
    ·
    6h
    BREAKING: Rishi Sunak's position as chancellor would be completely untenable in any party with a shred of decency, which means he is definitely keeping his job x
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,235
    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Love him or hate him, one has to admit that Boris has had a terrific week: lauded as the saviour of Ukraine whilst brilliantly portraying rival Rishi as the ultimate Citizen of Nowhere and cosmopolitan dandy, surely the ultimate insult amongst the Tory base. Boris is lord of all he surveys.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,835
    Sandpit said:

    Second like Le Pen?

    Macron is like Johnson in 2019. An empty, untrustworthy populist out for himself with an appeal that defies logic.

    But somewhat superior to the alternative...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,878
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Love him or hate him, one has to admit that Boris has had a terrific week: lauded as the saviour of Ukraine whilst brilliantly portraying rival Rishi as the ultimate Citizen of Nowhere and cosmopolitan dandy, surely the ultimate insult amongst the Tory base. Boris is lord of all he surveys.
    Mm. He now has to fulfil his promises. For instance, are the AFVs the Mastiffs we've already heard about? And what's the British Army going to do for rides?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,878
    Also, what's this land-based anti-ship missile business? Or did I misunderstand? The UK doesn't have any.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,835
    Carnyx said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Love him or hate him, one has to admit that Boris has had a terrific week: lauded as the saviour of Ukraine whilst brilliantly portraying rival Rishi as the ultimate Citizen of Nowhere and cosmopolitan dandy, surely the ultimate insult amongst the Tory base. Boris is lord of all he surveys.
    Mm. He now has to fulfil his promises.
    You mean, like on Brexit where he promised 'no border in the Irish Sea?'

    Well, it's possible, but it would be a break with tradition.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,251
    Spurs have now scored more PL goals this season under Antonio Conte (appointed November) than Arsenal have under Arteta

    https://twitter.com/oilysailor/status/1512854209405894657
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,878
    edited April 2022
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Love him or hate him, one has to admit that Boris has had a terrific week: lauded as the saviour of Ukraine whilst brilliantly portraying rival Rishi as the ultimate Citizen of Nowhere and cosmopolitan dandy, surely the ultimate insult amongst the Tory base. Boris is lord of all he surveys.
    Mm. He now has to fulfil his promises.
    You mean, like on Brexit where he promised 'no border in the Irish Sea?'

    Well, it's possible, but it would be a break with tradition.
    Anyway, more detail will emerge over the next few days, I am sure. Now off to get another glass of rose and put the fried potatoes on for the omelette. Night all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,537
    Macron is heading to top the first round poll again with Le Pen again likely to be his runoff opponent. However the runoff itself later in the month looks a much closer affair than 2017, with Le Pen polling around 10 to 15% higher than the 34% she got then
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,090
    Stark_Dawning said:


    Love him or hate him, one has to admit that Boris has had a terrific week: lauded as the saviour of Ukraine whilst brilliantly portraying rival Rishi as the ultimate Citizen of Nowhere and cosmopolitan dandy, surely the ultimate insult amongst the Tory base. Boris is lord of all he surveys.

    He wouldn't be the first leader to be hugely popular abroad and not much loved in his own country - Mikhail Gorbachev was as well. He took on Communism from the inside and arguably did more to end it than anyone yet he got no thanks from many in Russia for what he did.

    As for Johnson, we'll see what the May local elections offer. To be Conservative leader you only need to be less of a loser than anyone else as John Major so aptly demonstrated.

    Johnson will stay until or unless someone else likely to save large numbers of backbenchers from having to look for alternative employment emerges. If no one else does, the Conservative ship will sink with Johnson going down with it - if a "saviour" emerges, Johnson will be thrown overboard with maximum expediency.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,168
    Carnyx said:

    Also, what's this land-based anti-ship missile business? Or did I misunderstand? The UK doesn't have any.

    Possibly Harpoons ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,537
    Turnout according to Ipsos will be around 74% tomorrow, not that much lower than the 77% who voted in the first round in 2017
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,090
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Entertainingly off-topic but we've decided we want to open a cafe. We own (one of) the former bank(s) in the village, there's a decent catchment, the previous cafe shut 6 years ago when the owners retired and is still talked about, and we've had a neb round various other similar establishments and looks like a good idea.

    OK so I'm going to be busy (I'm about to be London-based half the week managing my soon to be former client's new UK business) but figure that as no rent is payable can afford to employ people. Have started building the business plan and the profit margins on some of these items are daft.

    Just need to tackle the council's planning people. No physical alterations to the building needed inside or out, but its listed and the planning portal suggests even a change of use needs plans to show the non-work I plan on doing...

    Best of luck - I look forward to perhaps one day enjoying breakfast at your establishment.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,671
    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Ta.
    They’ve missed that weird streak of shit/scab thing on his hooter.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Have a portrait of Bill Clinton I won at a district Democratic raffle in his heyday.

    Currently occupies place of honor in my back closet.

    Was thinking of offering it to Mr Ed as a memento . . . or maybe as a dart board?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,275
    Le Pen wants to pull FR out of NATO.

    But she may win thanks to ‘le pouvoir d’achat’ says Neil:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10701233/Marine-Le-Pen-bring-chaos-Trump-says-ANDREW-NEIL.html
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,849
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Also, what's this land-based anti-ship missile business? Or did I misunderstand? The UK doesn't have any.

    Possibly Harpoons ?
    I imagine we have some stuff that isn't announced too. Harpoon is ancient.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    stodge said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Entertainingly off-topic but we've decided we want to open a cafe. We own (one of) the former bank(s) in the village, there's a decent catchment, the previous cafe shut 6 years ago when the owners retired and is still talked about, and we've had a neb round various other similar establishments and looks like a good idea.

    OK so I'm going to be busy (I'm about to be London-based half the week managing my soon to be former client's new UK business) but figure that as no rent is payable can afford to employ people. Have started building the business plan and the profit margins on some of these items are daft.

    Just need to tackle the council's planning people. No physical alterations to the building needed inside or out, but its listed and the planning portal suggests even a change of use needs plans to show the non-work I plan on doing...

    Best of luck - I look forward to perhaps one day enjoying breakfast at your establishment.
    @stodge that point to point I was talking about, here's the report. Colin Tizzard was there (his grandson riding) and Santini's owners the Kelvin Hugheses had a runner

    ...just to make the point that grass roots matter

    https://pointingdc.co.uk/2022/04/06/report-spooners-p2p-cherrybrook-20220403
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,561
    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    What would DACLE or whatever it is make of that? Boris: the West’s Champion of Ukraine
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,281
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Entertainingly off-topic but we've decided we want to open a cafe. We own (one of) the former bank(s) in the village, there's a decent catchment, the previous cafe shut 6 years ago when the owners retired and is still talked about, and we've had a neb round various other similar establishments and looks like a good idea.

    OK so I'm going to be busy (I'm about to be London-based half the week managing my soon to be former client's new UK business) but figure that as no rent is payable can afford to employ people. Have started building the business plan and the profit margins on some of these items are daft.

    Just need to tackle the council's planning people. No physical alterations to the building needed inside or out, but its listed and the planning portal suggests even a change of use needs plans to show the non-work I plan on doing...

    Please make it dog friendly. When we visit our son near the Broch, there’s nowhere we can go for a coffee without leaving them outside. Also, please consider evening meals. Everywhere seems to close at 5pm in your part of the world.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited April 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Also, what's this land-based anti-ship missile business? Or did I misunderstand? The UK doesn't have any.

    Possibly Harpoons ?
    Britain's Harpoons were ship- or plane-launched. But the Danes did adapt theirs to land-launched.

    I presume the UK and Ukraine are not agreeing a package that Ukraine will not be able to use. So whatever the details, I have to assume any issues have been worked out.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Want to wish GET WELL SOON all PBers who are personally dealing with a case of the COVID,.via themselves, relatives, close friends & coworkers, etc.

    Am mindful of this having gotten my 2nd booster (Pf) a few days ago. Also that many have jobs & lifestyles that make it way harder than my own to avoid the contagion.

    So give your anti-bodies a good pep talk & (I paraphrase) win this one for the OGHer!" (pron same as "ogre")
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,119
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Also, what's this land-based anti-ship missile business? Or did I misunderstand? The UK doesn't have any.

    Possibly Harpoons ?
    I'm interested to see what this will be - though I guess the options are something like Harpoon for the Black Sea fleet, or something light and portable for lightweight attack craft.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,561
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Love him or hate him, one has to admit that Boris has had a terrific week: lauded as the saviour of Ukraine whilst brilliantly portraying rival Rishi as the ultimate Citizen of Nowhere and cosmopolitan dandy, surely the ultimate insult amongst the Tory base. Boris is lord of all he surveys.
    Mm. He now has to fulfil his promises. For instance, are the AFVs the Mastiffs we've already heard about? And what's the British Army going to do for rides?
    NEW: Total UK aid to Ukraine announced today and yesterday;

    • 120 armoured vehicles and new anti-ship missiles
    • $130m worth of Starstreak anti-aircraft missiles, 800 anti-tank missiles, and high-tech loitering munitions for precision strikes
    • $500 million in World Bank
    https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1512842016920637444

    I ham reluctant to quibble over the government’s support for Ukraine.

    It’s not complicated. It’s entirely possible fully to support them on this, and to be determined to vote to kick them out at the next election.
    Nice of Total UK to help… shame that Total France is still grubbing for shekels in Russia
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,687
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Amazing what AI can do these days.
    What does "I" stand for in this context?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,275
    WT actual F!!!!!!


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    Staggering quote from
    @ShippersUnbound
    column: “He [Rishi Sunak] thinks Putin will still be there and that there will have to be a deal with him and if that’s the case is it really worth the pain to the economy?”.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1512855291376902148
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    StillWaters said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Love him or hate him, one has to admit that Boris has had a terrific week: lauded as the saviour of Ukraine whilst brilliantly portraying rival Rishi as the ultimate Citizen of Nowhere and cosmopolitan dandy, surely the ultimate insult amongst the Tory base. Boris is lord of all he surveys.
    Mm. He now has to fulfil his promises. For instance, are the AFVs the Mastiffs we've already heard about? And what's the British Army going to do for rides?
    NEW: Total UK aid to Ukraine announced today and yesterday;

    • 120 armoured vehicles and new anti-ship missiles
    • $130m worth of Starstreak anti-aircraft missiles, 800 anti-tank missiles, and high-tech loitering munitions for precision strikes
    • $500 million in World Bank
    https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1512842016920637444

    I ham reluctant to quibble over the government’s support for Ukraine.

    It’s not complicated. It’s entirely possible fully to support them on this, and to be determined to vote to kick them out at the next election.
    Nice of Total UK to help… shame that Total France is still grubbing for shekels in Russia
    I love the way you said shekels.

    Love it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,119
    edited April 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Love him or hate him, one has to admit that Boris has had a terrific week: lauded as the saviour of Ukraine whilst brilliantly portraying rival Rishi as the ultimate Citizen of Nowhere and cosmopolitan dandy, surely the ultimate insult amongst the Tory base. Boris is lord of all he surveys.
    Mm. He now has to fulfil his promises. For instance, are the AFVs the Mastiffs we've already heard about? And what's the British Army going to do for rides?
    NEW: Total UK aid to Ukraine announced today and yesterday;

    • 120 armoured vehicles and new anti-ship missiles
    • $130m worth of Starstreak anti-aircraft missiles, 800 anti-tank missiles, and high-tech loitering munitions for precision strikes
    • $500 million in World Bank
    https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1512842016920637444

    I ham reluctant to quibble over the government’s support for Ukraine.

    It’s not complicated. It’s entirely possible fully to support them on this, and to be determined to vote to kick them out at the next election.
    We have also just ordered an extra 120 Boxer APCs (which are a chassis with swappable bodies), which sounds like backfill and makes me think we are may send more than just anti-IED/mine Armoured Patrol Vehicles. Difficult to call it.

    The first Boxers arrive from 2023.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,878
    edited April 2022
    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Also, what's this land-based anti-ship missile business? Or did I misunderstand? The UK doesn't have any.

    Possibly Harpoons ?
    I'm interested to see what this will be - though I guess the options are something like Harpoon for the Black Sea fleet, or something light and portable for lightweight attack craft.
    The Navy has got some old Harpoons it no longer needs, off the Duke class boats. But that doesn't allow for target acquisition and data compilation and transmission. Ah, TimT has pointed out the Danish ones - so maybe something in combination?

    AIUI unless the Raff has some air-launched Sea Eagles* in store, it'll otherwise be a matter of waiting for the makers to invent and build them.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,118
    rottenborough said:

    WT actual F!!!!!!


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    Staggering quote from
    @ShippersUnbound
    column: “He [Rishi Sunak] thinks Putin will still be there and that there will have to be a deal with him and if that’s the case is it really worth the pain to the economy?”.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1512855291376902148

    Rishi is a busted flush. What a shame
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,343
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Entertainingly off-topic but we've decided we want to open a cafe. We own (one of) the former bank(s) in the village, there's a decent catchment, the previous cafe shut 6 years ago when the owners retired and is still talked about, and we've had a neb round various other similar establishments and looks like a good idea.

    OK so I'm going to be busy (I'm about to be London-based half the week managing my soon to be former client's new UK business) but figure that as no rent is payable can afford to employ people. Have started building the business plan and the profit margins on some of these items are daft.

    Just need to tackle the council's planning people. No physical alterations to the building needed inside or out, but its listed and the planning portal suggests even a change of use needs plans to show the non-work I plan on doing...

    The plans will need to show the internal layout - number of seats, kitchen equipment including vent ducting etc - and any external signage attached to the building. You might also need to show you have places for people to park, depending on the precise location and how anal the council are about these things. The margins can seem daft, but there’s lots of wastage and the staff costs can add up. That said, with no rent it should be possible to make a decent business out of it. Good luck! :+1:
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,843
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Love him or hate him, one has to admit that Boris has had a terrific week: lauded as the saviour of Ukraine whilst brilliantly portraying rival Rishi as the ultimate Citizen of Nowhere and cosmopolitan dandy, surely the ultimate insult amongst the Tory base. Boris is lord of all he surveys.
    To appear as poster boy for one of Leon's homo erotic websites does not a great leader make. Still an untrustworthy laughing stock to the Great British public and screwing Rishi just makes Labour's job easier.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    rottenborough said:

    WT actual F!!!!!!


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    Staggering quote from
    @ShippersUnbound
    column: “He [Rishi Sunak] thinks Putin will still be there and that there will have to be a deal with him and if that’s the case is it really worth the pain to the economy?”.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1512855291376902148

    Perhaps he thinks he's Chancellor of Germany instead of Chancellor of the Exchequer.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,235
    rottenborough said:

    WT actual F!!!!!!


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    Staggering quote from
    @ShippersUnbound
    column: “He [Rishi Sunak] thinks Putin will still be there and that there will have to be a deal with him and if that’s the case is it really worth the pain to the economy?”.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1512855291376902148

    Wow. Did Rishi say this in an on-the-record interview, or is it something he secretly confided with Boris that somehow - astonishingly - got leaked out?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    If you think Putin will still be there then Shirley that means developing non fossil fuel sources are even more important.

    Absolutely fucking incoherent thinking by Sunak.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Soldiers using Harpoon in battle must experience overweening urge when deploying, to shout "thar she blows!"
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,878
    Razedabode said:

    rottenborough said:

    WT actual F!!!!!!


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    Staggering quote from
    @ShippersUnbound
    column: “He [Rishi Sunak] thinks Putin will still be there and that there will have to be a deal with him and if that’s the case is it really worth the pain to the economy?”.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1512855291376902148

    Rishi is a busted flush. What a shame
    Surprised nobody has mentioned in recent days the death toll from the Eat Twice and Pay Once scheme he espoused so vigorously. It's another weakness.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,343
    rottenborough said:

    WT actual F!!!!!!


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    Staggering quote from
    @ShippersUnbound
    column: “He [Rishi Sunak] thinks Putin will still be there and that there will have to be a deal with him and if that’s the case is it really worth the pain to the economy?”.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1512855291376902148

    Typical Hodges out-of-context quote.

    Putin could well still be there, there’s no suggestion that anyone is targeting him or Russian soil, and it’s perfectly legitimate for the Chancellor to note (to the PM and Cabinet) the cost to the UK economy of sanctions against Russia. Why does everything need to be some massive scandal?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,275
    Stark_Dawning said:

    rottenborough said:

    WT actual F!!!!!!


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    Staggering quote from
    @ShippersUnbound
    column: “He [Rishi Sunak] thinks Putin will still be there and that there will have to be a deal with him and if that’s the case is it really worth the pain to the economy?”.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1512855291376902148

    Wow. Did Rishi say this in an on-the-record interview, or is it something he secretly confided with Boris that somehow - astonishingly - got leaked out?
    We await the S Times tomorrow for the full story I guess.

    We will all have to review our next tory leader bets I think after Sunak's week from hell.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,275
    williamglenn said:

    rottenborough said:

    WT actual F!!!!!!


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    Staggering quote from
    @ShippersUnbound
    column: “He [Rishi Sunak] thinks Putin will still be there and that there will have to be a deal with him and if that’s the case is it really worth the pain to the economy?”.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1512855291376902148

    Perhaps he thinks he's Chancellor of Germany instead of Chancellor of the Exchequer.
    :lol:

    Ouch!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,878
    Sandpit said:

    rottenborough said:

    WT actual F!!!!!!


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    Staggering quote from
    @ShippersUnbound
    column: “He [Rishi Sunak] thinks Putin will still be there and that there will have to be a deal with him and if that’s the case is it really worth the pain to the economy?”.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1512855291376902148

    Typical Hodges out-of-context quote.

    Putin could well still be there, there’s no suggestion that anyone is targeting him or Russian soil, and it’s perfectly legitimate for the Chancellor to note (to the PM and Cabinet) the cost to the UK economy of sanctions against Russia. Why does everything need to be some massive scandal?
    To save Big Dog?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited April 2022
    williamglenn said:

    rottenborough said:

    WT actual F!!!!!!


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    Staggering quote from
    @ShippersUnbound
    column: “He [Rishi Sunak] thinks Putin will still be there and that there will have to be a deal with him and if that’s the case is it really worth the pain to the economy?”.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1512855291376902148

    Perhaps he thinks he's Chancellor of Germany instead of Chancellor of the Exchequer.
    Am getting feeling that Rishi Sunak has little to no input, aside & outside usual suspects of HM Treasury.

    Which is a VERY dangerous thing for a Chancellor or the Exchequer. EDIT - For them & UK.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Carnyx said:

    Razedabode said:

    rottenborough said:

    WT actual F!!!!!!


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    Staggering quote from
    @ShippersUnbound
    column: “He [Rishi Sunak] thinks Putin will still be there and that there will have to be a deal with him and if that’s the case is it really worth the pain to the economy?”.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1512855291376902148

    Rishi is a busted flush. What a shame
    Surprised nobody has mentioned in recent days the death toll from the Eat Twice and Pay Once scheme he espoused so vigorously. It's another weakness.
    Totally agree
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    HYUFD said:

    Macron is heading to top the first round poll again with Le Pen again likely to be his runoff opponent. However the runoff itself later in the month looks a much closer affair than 2017, with Le Pen polling around 10 to 15% higher than the 34% she got then

    Also on topic. Melenchon coming in the top 2 won’t be that much of a shock to anyone really will it?
    If he does, he’s actually a more difficult opponent for Macron, as he will slice and dice Macron in head to head debate, and it will be much easier for Le Pens yellow jacket, EU sceptic and Nationalist vote to transfer to Melenchon than Melenchon’s ethnic vote to transfer to Le Pen.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    In response to the ever-excitable Leon, Labour leads this week:

    5%
    6%
    7%

    If that's being 'lord of all he surveys' then Boris is a masterstroke for Labour fortunes.


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,119
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Soldiers using Harpoon in battle must experience overweening urge when deploying, to shout "thar she blows!"

    More suitable than you think, in the UK it's used by Sailors !
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,148
    Sandpit said:

    rottenborough said:

    WT actual F!!!!!!


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    Staggering quote from
    @ShippersUnbound
    column: “He [Rishi Sunak] thinks Putin will still be there and that there will have to be a deal with him and if that’s the case is it really worth the pain to the economy?”.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1512855291376902148

    Typical Hodges out-of-context quote.

    Putin could well still be there, there’s no suggestion that anyone is targeting him or Russian soil, and it’s perfectly legitimate for the Chancellor to note (to the PM and Cabinet) the cost to the UK economy of sanctions against Russia. Why does everything need to be some massive scandal?
    +1

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,148
    edited April 2022

    edit
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,837
    Heathener said:

    Carnyx said:

    Razedabode said:

    rottenborough said:

    WT actual F!!!!!!


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    Staggering quote from
    @ShippersUnbound
    column: “He [Rishi Sunak] thinks Putin will still be there and that there will have to be a deal with him and if that’s the case is it really worth the pain to the economy?”.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1512855291376902148

    Rishi is a busted flush. What a shame
    Surprised nobody has mentioned in recent days the death toll from the Eat Twice and Pay Once scheme he espoused so vigorously. It's another weakness.
    Totally agree
    Rather hard to prove someone died because of the eat out to help out scheme. I think that’s the least of his issues. The biggest one surely is the huge amount of friendly fire that’s currently turned on him.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Carnyx said:

    Razedabode said:

    rottenborough said:

    WT actual F!!!!!!


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    Staggering quote from
    @ShippersUnbound
    column: “He [Rishi Sunak] thinks Putin will still be there and that there will have to be a deal with him and if that’s the case is it really worth the pain to the economy?”.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1512855291376902148

    Rishi is a busted flush. What a shame
    Surprised nobody has mentioned in recent days the death toll from the Eat Twice and Pay Once scheme he espoused so vigorously. It's another weakness.
    I think the link between that scheme and the autumn wave in 2020 is quite tenuous. It began in Med tourist destinations when Eat Out To Help Out was already ending.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    With regards to the other war, the one between No 10. & No. 11, the last time it erupted into the public like this it led to Labour's loss of power.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,878
    edited April 2022
    MattW said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Soldiers using Harpoon in battle must experience overweening urge when deploying, to shout "thar she blows!"

    More suitable than you think, in the UK it's used by Sailors !
    Also the Raff - previously, but stopped by the disgraceful collapse of long range maritime capability. The Poseidon will have it though.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Love him or hate him, one has to admit that Boris has had a terrific week: lauded as the saviour of Ukraine whilst brilliantly portraying rival Rishi as the ultimate Citizen of Nowhere and cosmopolitan dandy, surely the ultimate insult amongst the Tory base. Boris is lord of all he surveys.
    Why doesn’t he call that June election then, before the economic horrors of the next three years hit him and party like a juggernaut?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Heathener said:

    With regards to the other war, the one between No 10. & No. 11, the last time it erupted into the public like this it led to Labour's loss of power.

    You're forgetting about May and Hammond when it contributed to her almost blowing the election in 2017.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,522
    Sandpit said:

    rottenborough said:

    WT actual F!!!!!!


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    Staggering quote from
    @ShippersUnbound
    column: “He [Rishi Sunak] thinks Putin will still be there and that there will have to be a deal with him and if that’s the case is it really worth the pain to the economy?”.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1512855291376902148

    Typical Hodges out-of-context quote.

    Putin could well still be there, there’s no suggestion that anyone is targeting him or Russian soil, and it’s perfectly legitimate for the Chancellor to note (to the PM and Cabinet) the cost to the UK economy of sanctions against Russia. Why does everything need to be some massive scandal?
    I've got zero problem with him asking that question. I'd *hope* it would get the answer: "Yes! It is worth it!", given the risks of Putin extending the war to other countries if we do not help Ukraine. But asking the question is perfectly valid: especially if it leads to some measures that deals with what happens when Putin is still there.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    edited April 2022
    Le Pen can still win the first round as she might see more transfers from Zemmour .

    Macrons polling has looked quite stable recently around the 26% mark . If you remove the bump he got around the time of the start of the war in Ukraine then nothing much has changed in terms of his support over the last few months.

    Andrew Neil’s column was very good but one thing I disagree with . Mélenchons supporters if you take all the polling into account generally shows a slight edge to Macron in terms of second round transfers .

    And add to that .

    A large amount of his support comes from the Muslim population in France , current abstention rates are likely to include a disproportionate level of that community as they tend to be less likely to vote overall but if Le Pen looks to have a chance of the Presidency this will drive up that turnout .

    Looking across the polling Le Pen is maxing out her second round polling because of low abstention rates amongst Zemmours voters who transfer to her .

    That’s why turnout is key in the second round and this is something Macron has highlighted . If turnout goes up this is likely to be voters trying to stop Le Pen .

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,043
    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    rottenborough said:

    WT actual F!!!!!!


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    Staggering quote from
    @ShippersUnbound
    column: “He [Rishi Sunak] thinks Putin will still be there and that there will have to be a deal with him and if that’s the case is it really worth the pain to the economy?”.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1512855291376902148

    Typical Hodges out-of-context quote.

    Putin could well still be there, there’s no suggestion that anyone is targeting him or Russian soil, and it’s perfectly legitimate for the Chancellor to note (to the PM and Cabinet) the cost to the UK economy of sanctions against Russia. Why does everything need to be some massive scandal?
    To save Big Dog?
    The only question is whether no 10 are destroying Sunak to make it easier to sack him, or to keep him in place but defenestrated. My guess is the latter.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    MoonRabbit said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Love him or hate him, one has to admit that Boris has had a terrific week: lauded as the saviour of Ukraine whilst brilliantly portraying rival Rishi as the ultimate Citizen of Nowhere and cosmopolitan dandy, surely the ultimate insult amongst the Tory base. Boris is lord of all he surveys.
    Why doesn’t he call that June election then, before the economic horrors of the next three years
    Is this a new change to the Elections & Referendums Act?

    2 years, 1 month and 24 days max.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,119
    edited April 2022
    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Also, what's this land-based anti-ship missile business? Or did I misunderstand? The UK doesn't have any.

    Possibly Harpoons ?
    I'm interested to see what this will be - though I guess the options are something like Harpoon for the Black Sea fleet, or something light and portable for lightweight attack craft.
    The Navy has got some old Harpoons it no longer needs, off the Duke class boats. But that doesn't allow for target acquisition and data compilation and transmission. Ah, TimT has pointed out the Danish ones - so maybe something in combination?

    AIUI unless the Raff has some air-launched Sea Eagles* in store, it'll otherwise be a matter of waiting for the makers to invent and build them.
    The other possible is a Land launched version of Martlet (3kg warhead) or Sea Venom (30kg warhead), which have hints of the capability being developed, but we may not be there yet. Not convinced, however.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    williamglenn said:

    Heathener said:

    With regards to the other war, the one between No 10. & No. 11, the last time it erupted into the public like this it led to Labour's loss of power.

    You're forgetting about May and Hammond when it contributed to her almost blowing the election in 2017.
    That's true
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,522
    williamglenn said:

    Heathener said:

    With regards to the other war, the one between No 10. & No. 11, the last time it erupted into the public like this it led to Labour's loss of power.

    You're forgetting about May and Hammond when it contributed to her almost blowing the election in 2017.
    Clarkson was the best :)
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,687
    noneoftheabove said:

    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    rottenborough said:

    WT actual F!!!!!!


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    Staggering quote from
    @ShippersUnbound
    column: “He [Rishi Sunak] thinks Putin will still be there and that there will have to be a deal with him and if that’s the case is it really worth the pain to the economy?”.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1512855291376902148

    Typical Hodges out-of-context quote.

    Putin could well still be there, there’s no suggestion that anyone is targeting him or Russian soil, and it’s perfectly legitimate for the Chancellor to note (to the PM and Cabinet) the cost to the UK economy of sanctions against Russia. Why does everything need to be some massive scandal?
    To save Big Dog?
    The only question is whether no 10 are destroying Sunak to make it easier to sack him, or to keep him in place but defenestrated. My guess is the latter.
    It will be remembered that Sunak was only appointed in the first place because he was more amenable to sheltering the Treasury under the wing of No. 10. It seems to be a long-term aim of the Cabinet Office, Dom or no-Dom.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,708
    Sandpit said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Entertainingly off-topic but we've decided we want to open a cafe. We own (one of) the former bank(s) in the village, there's a decent catchment, the previous cafe shut 6 years ago when the owners retired and is still talked about, and we've had a neb round various other similar establishments and looks like a good idea.

    OK so I'm going to be busy (I'm about to be London-based half the week managing my soon to be former client's new UK business) but figure that as no rent is payable can afford to employ people. Have started building the business plan and the profit margins on some of these items are daft.

    Just need to tackle the council's planning people. No physical alterations to the building needed inside or out, but its listed and the planning portal suggests even a change of use needs plans to show the non-work I plan on doing...

    The plans will need to show the internal layout - number of seats, kitchen equipment including vent ducting etc - and any external signage attached to the building. You might also need to show you have places for people to park, depending on the precise location and how anal the council are about these things. The margins can seem daft, but there’s lots of wastage and the staff costs can add up. That said, with no rent it should be possible to make a decent business out of it. Good luck! :+1:
    Thanks - am going to speak to the local planning office and get an understanding from them what they need. Ducting? We're golden. Food prep will be in the former comms room and there is an existing extraction fan. Simply replace with a modern one with no holes needing to be cut. Clearly they'll need to look at parking for the change of use application.

    We're on the main road and there is on street parking and a layby across the road. We get an eclectic mix of people parking outside - from cars to HGVs to mahoosive Clarson-sized tractors. Suspect they will want to consider that as part of the change of use application, but as there was no parking when it was a bank and the new shop across the road (shop converted to house reconverted to shop) also has on street parking only.

    What I am trying to get my head around is disabled access. There is an existing ramp to the front door, but the toilets are down a wheelchair unfriendly corridor having gone up two small steps. Realistically that isn't something that can be changed. I know plenty of existing premises with wholly inaccessible toilets so I know it isn't a barrier. However, the rear fire door is also up those two steps. Was open as a bank til 2016 so was in code back then, wonder what may have changed...
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,561
    Sandpit said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Entertainingly off-topic but we've decided we want to open a cafe. We own (one of) the former bank(s) in the village, there's a decent catchment, the previous cafe shut 6 years ago when the owners retired and is still talked about, and we've had a neb round various other similar establishments and looks like a good idea.

    OK so I'm going to be busy (I'm about to be London-based half the week managing my soon to be former client's new UK business) but figure that as no rent is payable can afford to employ people. Have started building the business plan and the profit margins on some of these items are daft.

    Just need to tackle the council's planning people. No physical alterations to the building needed inside or out, but its listed and the planning portal suggests even a change of use needs plans to show the non-work I plan on doing...

    The plans will need to show the internal layout - number of seats, kitchen equipment including vent ducting etc - and any external signage attached to the building. You might also need to show you have places for people to park, depending on the precise location and how anal the council are about these things. The margins can seem daft, but there’s lots of wastage and the staff costs can add up. That said, with no rent it should be possible to make a decent business out of it. Good luck! :+1:
    You should price a market rent into your analysis unless there is no alternative use for the property/ you can’t sell it. Otherwise it will just artificially inflate the cafes apparent profitability
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,522
    williamglenn said:

    rottenborough said:

    WT actual F!!!!!!


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    Staggering quote from
    @ShippersUnbound
    column: “He [Rishi Sunak] thinks Putin will still be there and that there will have to be a deal with him and if that’s the case is it really worth the pain to the economy?”.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1512855291376902148

    Perhaps he thinks he's Chancellor of Germany instead of Chancellor of the Exchequer.
    Indian Finance Minister, surely!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,343
    nico679 said:

    Le Pen can still win the first round as she might see more transfers from Zemmour .

    Macrons polling has looked quite stable recently around the 26% mark . If you remove the bump he got around the time of the start of the war in Ukraine then nothing much has changed in terms of his support over the last few months.

    Andrew Neil’s column was very good but one thing I disagree with . Mélenchons supporters if you take all the polling into account generally shows a slight edge to Macron in terms of second round transfers .

    And add to that .

    A large amount of his support comes from the Muslim population in France , current abstention rates are likely to include a disproportionate level of that community as they tend to be less likely to vote overall but if Le Pen looks to have a chance of the Presidency this will drive up that turnout .

    Looking across the polling Le Pen is maxing out her second round polling because of low abstention rates amongst Zemmours voters who transfer to her .

    That’s why turnout is key in the second round and this is something Macron has highlighted . If turnout goes up this is likely to be voters trying to stop Le Pen .

    Interesting observations about the Muslim vote in France. Question - will the fact that it’s the middle of Ramadan have an affect on their turnout, one way or the other?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    williamglenn said:

    Heathener said:

    With regards to the other war, the one between No 10. & No. 11, the last time it erupted into the public like this it led to Labour's loss of power.

    You're forgetting about May and Hammond when it contributed to her almost blowing the election in 2017.
    Clarkson was the best :)
    You mean Kelly?

    Kelly Clarkson - Whole Lotta Woman
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESA9kosNx-U
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,164
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    williamglenn said:

    rottenborough said:

    WT actual F!!!!!!


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    Staggering quote from
    @ShippersUnbound
    column: “He [Rishi Sunak] thinks Putin will still be there and that there will have to be a deal with him and if that’s the case is it really worth the pain to the economy?”.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1512855291376902148

    Perhaps he thinks he's Chancellor of Germany instead of Chancellor of the Exchequer.
    Am getting feeling that Rishi Sunak has little to no input, aside & outside usual suspects of HM Treasury.

    Which is a VERY dangerous thing for a Chancellor or the Exchequer. EDIT - For them & UK.
    Remember he only got the job because he was prepared to play second fiddle to No. 10 SPADs, then led by Cummings.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,708
    Fairliered said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Entertainingly off-topic but we've decided we want to open a cafe. We own (one of) the former bank(s) in the village, there's a decent catchment, the previous cafe shut 6 years ago when the owners retired and is still talked about, and we've had a neb round various other similar establishments and looks like a good idea.

    OK so I'm going to be busy (I'm about to be London-based half the week managing my soon to be former client's new UK business) but figure that as no rent is payable can afford to employ people. Have started building the business plan and the profit margins on some of these items are daft.

    Just need to tackle the council's planning people. No physical alterations to the building needed inside or out, but its listed and the planning portal suggests even a change of use needs plans to show the non-work I plan on doing...

    Please make it dog friendly. When we visit our son near the Broch, there’s nowhere we can go for a coffee without leaving them outside. Also, please consider evening meals. Everywhere seems to close at 5pm in your part of the world.
    Kids and dogs, happily! Its to provide something beneficial to the community. Plenty of people with kids and dogs so would be bonkers to not allow them in. Won't do evenings though - the former village cafe is now a superb indian restaurant and they are open of an evening. Its during the day that there is nothing...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,522
    edited April 2022
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    williamglenn said:

    Heathener said:

    With regards to the other war, the one between No 10. & No. 11, the last time it erupted into the public like this it led to Labour's loss of power.

    You're forgetting about May and Hammond when it contributed to her almost blowing the election in 2017.
    Clarkson was the best :)
    You mean Kelly?

    Kelly Clarkson - Whole Lotta Woman
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESA9kosNx-U
    No, Jeremy Clarkson, James May and RichardHammond were on BBC "Top Gear" for many years.

    BTW have you worked out where Dodos used to live? It wasn't New Zealand!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,708
    StillWaters said:

    Sandpit said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Entertainingly off-topic but we've decided we want to open a cafe. We own (one of) the former bank(s) in the village, there's a decent catchment, the previous cafe shut 6 years ago when the owners retired and is still talked about, and we've had a neb round various other similar establishments and looks like a good idea.

    OK so I'm going to be busy (I'm about to be London-based half the week managing my soon to be former client's new UK business) but figure that as no rent is payable can afford to employ people. Have started building the business plan and the profit margins on some of these items are daft.

    Just need to tackle the council's planning people. No physical alterations to the building needed inside or out, but its listed and the planning portal suggests even a change of use needs plans to show the non-work I plan on doing...

    The plans will need to show the internal layout - number of seats, kitchen equipment including vent ducting etc - and any external signage attached to the building. You might also need to show you have places for people to park, depending on the precise location and how anal the council are about these things. The margins can seem daft, but there’s lots of wastage and the staff costs can add up. That said, with no rent it should be possible to make a decent business out of it. Good luck! :+1:
    You should price a market rent into your analysis unless there is no alternative use for the property/ you can’t sell it. Otherwise it will just artificially inflate the cafes apparent profitability
    There will be rent payable. By my cafe business to the building owner. As with the rent paid by the current tenant (a management consultancy business) I just happen to be both the tenant and the landlord, albeit wearing different hats for tax purposes.

    Yes indeed, I am Mrs Sunak.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,537
    edited April 2022
    MoonRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Macron is heading to top the first round poll again with Le Pen again likely to be his runoff opponent. However the runoff itself later in the month looks a much closer affair than 2017, with Le Pen polling around 10 to 15% higher than the 34% she got then

    Also on topic. Melenchon coming in the top 2 won’t be that much of a shock to anyone really will it?
    If he does, he’s actually a more difficult opponent for Macron, as he will slice and dice Macron in head to head debate, and it will be much easier for Le Pens yellow jacket, EU sceptic and Nationalist vote to transfer to Melenchon than Melenchon’s ethnic vote to transfer to Le Pen.
    According to the latest Harris poll Le Pen on 24% is closer to Macron on 27% than Melenchon on 18% is to Le Pen.

    In terms of the runoff Le Pen gets 48.5% v Macron while Melenchon gets only 43% against the President.

    33% of Pecresse voters would vote for Le Pen but just 12% for Melenchon. 84% of Zemmour voters would vote for Le Pen but only 15% for Melenchon.

    21% of Melenchon voters would vote for Le Pen and 30% of Le Pen voters for Melenchon however, not a vast difference

    http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2022/04/Rapport-Harris-Interactive-Toluna-V41-Intentions-de-vote-Presidentielle-2022-Challenges.pdf
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,561
    IshmaelZ said:

    StillWaters said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Love him or hate him, one has to admit that Boris has had a terrific week: lauded as the saviour of Ukraine whilst brilliantly portraying rival Rishi as the ultimate Citizen of Nowhere and cosmopolitan dandy, surely the ultimate insult amongst the Tory base. Boris is lord of all he surveys.
    Mm. He now has to fulfil his promises. For instance, are the AFVs the Mastiffs we've already heard about? And what's the British Army going to do for rides?
    NEW: Total UK aid to Ukraine announced today and yesterday;

    • 120 armoured vehicles and new anti-ship missiles
    • $130m worth of Starstreak anti-aircraft missiles, 800 anti-tank missiles, and high-tech loitering munitions for precision strikes
    • $500 million in World Bank
    https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1512842016920637444

    I ham reluctant to quibble over the government’s support for Ukraine.

    It’s not complicated. It’s entirely possible fully to support them on this, and to be determined to vote to kick them out at the next election.
    Nice of Total UK to help… shame that Total France is still grubbing for shekels in Russia
    I love the way you said shekels.

    Love it.
    I love the way that Israel is unambiguously standing behind Ukraine with full thrusted support about the illegal occupation of her land by an aggressive neighbour
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,726
    So much of what the Russians are doing in Ukraine is deeply hideous and scary. I'm finding it harder and harder to accept us not doing more, and halting all purchases of anything from Russia, and perhaps even fighting alongside Ukraine.

    “Russia to Fast-Track Adoption of Deported Ukraine Orphans: Kyiv Officials”

    Article II of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide:

    E) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

    https://un.org/en/genocideprevention/genocide.shtml

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1512798107276296196
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Just realised my error. It's 2 years 0 months and 24 days max to the next election.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,726
    rottenborough said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    rottenborough said:

    WT actual F!!!!!!


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    Staggering quote from
    @ShippersUnbound
    column: “He [Rishi Sunak] thinks Putin will still be there and that there will have to be a deal with him and if that’s the case is it really worth the pain to the economy?”.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1512855291376902148

    Wow. Did Rishi say this in an on-the-record interview, or is it something he secretly confided with Boris that somehow - astonishingly - got leaked out?
    We await the S Times tomorrow for the full story I guess.

    We will all have to review our next tory leader bets I think after Sunak's week from hell.
    Given Sunak's role in delaying effective action to slow the second wave in autumn 2020, this really doesn't surprise me as much as it should.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,561
    RochdalePioneers said:

    StillWaters said:

    Sandpit said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Entertainingly off-topic but we've decided we want to open a cafe. We own (one of) the former bank(s) in the village, there's a decent catchment, the previous cafe shut 6 years ago when the owners retired and is still talked about, and we've had a neb round various other similar establishments and looks like a good idea.

    OK so I'm going to be busy (I'm about to be London-based half the week managing my soon to be former client's new UK business) but figure that as no rent is payable can afford to employ people. Have started building the business plan and the profit margins on some of these items are daft.

    Just need to tackle the council's planning people. No physical alterations to the building needed inside or out, but its listed and the planning portal suggests even a change of use needs plans to show the non-work I plan on doing...

    The plans will need to show the internal layout - number of seats, kitchen equipment including vent ducting etc - and any external signage attached to the building. You might also need to show you have places for people to park, depending on the precise location and how anal the council are about these things. The margins can seem daft, but there’s lots of wastage and the staff costs can add up. That said, with no rent it should be possible to make a decent business out of it. Good luck! :+1:
    You should price a market rent into your analysis unless there is no alternative use for the property/ you can’t sell it. Otherwise it will just artificially inflate the cafes apparent profitability
    There will be rent payable. By my cafe business to the building owner. As with the rent paid by the current tenant (a management consultancy business) I just happen to be both the tenant and the landlord, albeit wearing different hats for tax purposes.

    Yes indeed, I am Mrs Sunak.
    Makes sense. The joys of opco-propco. At least you haven’t stuck in a manco as well.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,708
    Heathener said:

    Just realised my error. It's 2 years 0 months and 24 days max to the next election.

    It isn't. Parliament can't last more than 5 years which is 17th December 2024. Allow 6 weeks or so of campaign after that and the GE could legally be in February 2025.

    Politically that would be mad, but with this government, who knows.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,343
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Sandpit said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Entertainingly off-topic but we've decided we want to open a cafe. We own (one of) the former bank(s) in the village, there's a decent catchment, the previous cafe shut 6 years ago when the owners retired and is still talked about, and we've had a neb round various other similar establishments and looks like a good idea.

    OK so I'm going to be busy (I'm about to be London-based half the week managing my soon to be former client's new UK business) but figure that as no rent is payable can afford to employ people. Have started building the business plan and the profit margins on some of these items are daft.

    Just need to tackle the council's planning people. No physical alterations to the building needed inside or out, but its listed and the planning portal suggests even a change of use needs plans to show the non-work I plan on doing...

    The plans will need to show the internal layout - number of seats, kitchen equipment including vent ducting etc - and any external signage attached to the building. You might also need to show you have places for people to park, depending on the precise location and how anal the council are about these things. The margins can seem daft, but there’s lots of wastage and the staff costs can add up. That said, with no rent it should be possible to make a decent business out of it. Good luck! :+1:
    Thanks - am going to speak to the local planning office and get an understanding from them what they need. Ducting? We're golden. Food prep will be in the former comms room and there is an existing extraction fan. Simply replace with a modern one with no holes needing to be cut. Clearly they'll need to look at parking for the change of use application.

    We're on the main road and there is on street parking and a layby across the road. We get an eclectic mix of people parking outside - from cars to HGVs to mahoosive Clarson-sized tractors. Suspect they will want to consider that as part of the change of use application, but as there was no parking when it was a bank and the new shop across the road (shop converted to house reconverted to shop) also has on street parking only.

    What I am trying to get my head around is disabled access. There is an existing ramp to the front door, but the toilets are down a wheelchair unfriendly corridor having gone up two small steps. Realistically that isn't something that can be changed. I know plenty of existing premises with wholly inaccessible toilets so I know it isn't a barrier. However, the rear fire door is also up those two steps. Was open as a bank til 2016 so was in code back then, wonder what may have changed...
    Sounds good!

    The disabled bathroom access is what might get you - the bank may have had grandfather rights as they would have been staff rather than public toilets, which would be a requirement for a restaurant/cafe. It may be as simple as having a couple of ramps made up, which could be either temporary (think of what they use on trains for wheelchair access) or semi-permanent (a metal structure sitting on the floor that replaces the steps).

    I’m not really au fait with listed building consent, except to note that it adds zeros to the cost of doing anything! Things like wiring paths for the fire alarm system can be the subject of extensive discussion.

    I used to do IT for restaurants a couple of decades ago, trying to run data cables was always a nightmare in listed buildings because we had to get permissions rather than just doing it.

    Good luck in your talks with the council, maybe you might need to consider running for office!
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    edited April 2022
    Sandpit said:

    nico679 said:

    Le Pen can still win the first round as she might see more transfers from Zemmour .

    Macrons polling has looked quite stable recently around the 26% mark . If you remove the bump he got around the time of the start of the war in Ukraine then nothing much has changed in terms of his support over the last few months.

    Andrew Neil’s column was very good but one thing I disagree with . Mélenchons supporters if you take all the polling into account generally shows a slight edge to Macron in terms of second round transfers .

    And add to that .

    A large amount of his support comes from the Muslim population in France , current abstention rates are likely to include a disproportionate level of that community as they tend to be less likely to vote overall but if Le Pen looks to have a chance of the Presidency this will drive up that turnout .

    Looking across the polling Le Pen is maxing out her second round polling because of low abstention rates amongst Zemmours voters who transfer to her .

    That’s why turnout is key in the second round and this is something Macron has highlighted . If turnout goes up this is likely to be voters trying to stop Le Pen .

    Interesting observations about the Muslim vote in France. Question - will the fact that it’s the middle of Ramadan have an affect on their turnout, one way or the other?
    I wouldn’t have thought so for voters but for any volunteers it will be a hard slog during the day . In terms of Mélenchon in 2017 he took more of the Muslim vote in round 1 than Macron which might come as a surprise .

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,286
    edited April 2022
    StillWaters said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    StillWaters said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Love him or hate him, one has to admit that Boris has had a terrific week: lauded as the saviour of Ukraine whilst brilliantly portraying rival Rishi as the ultimate Citizen of Nowhere and cosmopolitan dandy, surely the ultimate insult amongst the Tory base. Boris is lord of all he surveys.
    Mm. He now has to fulfil his promises. For instance, are the AFVs the Mastiffs we've already heard about? And what's the British Army going to do for rides?
    NEW: Total UK aid to Ukraine announced today and yesterday;

    • 120 armoured vehicles and new anti-ship missiles
    • $130m worth of Starstreak anti-aircraft missiles, 800 anti-tank missiles, and high-tech loitering munitions for precision strikes
    • $500 million in World Bank
    https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1512842016920637444

    I ham reluctant to quibble over the government’s support for Ukraine.

    It’s not complicated. It’s entirely possible fully to support them on this, and to be determined to vote to kick them out at the next election.
    Nice of Total UK to help… shame that Total France is still grubbing for shekels in Russia
    I love the way you said shekels.

    Love it.
    I love the way that Israel is unambiguously standing behind Ukraine with full thrusted support about the illegal occupation of her land by an aggressive neighbour
    Erm, it is slightly ambiguous given that Israel blocked the transfer of anti-missile missiles. Israel does seem to have a lot of medical assistance out there. Ironically, Israel has roundly condemned the war crimes and mass graves in more-or-less the same terms as Jeremy Corbyn, ie without naming Russia.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,168
    Omnium said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Also, what's this land-based anti-ship missile business? Or did I misunderstand? The UK doesn't have any.

    Possibly Harpoons ?
    I imagine we have some stuff that isn't announced too. Harpoon is ancient.
    Yes, we’re planning to scrap them next year - but it outranges most of the Russian ship based missiles in the Black Sea.
    And Ukraine has made effective use of equally old ex Soviet kit elsewhere.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,343
    williamglenn said:

    At a handshake distance. @BorisJohnson and @ZelenskyyUa walked through the center of Kyiv and talked to ordinary Kyivans. This is what democracy looks like. This is what courage looks like. This is what true friendship between peoples and between nations looks like.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1512867082932793347

    Wow, that’s impressive. Well done Boris! :+1:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,376
    2% drop for conservatives but no increase in labour percentage

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1512868411197566976?t=SlCuV3Lgn2LnRZjK3SrqDQ&s=19
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,537
    edited April 2022
    nico679 said:

    Sandpit said:

    nico679 said:

    Le Pen can still win the first round as she might see more transfers from Zemmour .

    Macrons polling has looked quite stable recently around the 26% mark . If you remove the bump he got around the time of the start of the war in Ukraine then nothing much has changed in terms of his support over the last few months.

    Andrew Neil’s column was very good but one thing I disagree with . Mélenchons supporters if you take all the polling into account generally shows a slight edge to Macron in terms of second round transfers .

    And add to that .

    A large amount of his support comes from the Muslim population in France , current abstention rates are likely to include a disproportionate level of that community as they tend to be less likely to vote overall but if Le Pen looks to have a chance of the Presidency this will drive up that turnout .

    Looking across the polling Le Pen is maxing out her second round polling because of low abstention rates amongst Zemmours voters who transfer to her .

    That’s why turnout is key in the second round and this is something Macron has highlighted . If turnout goes up this is likely to be voters trying to stop Le Pen .

    Interesting observations about the Muslim vote in France. Question - will the fact that it’s the middle of Ramadan have an affect on their turnout, one way or the other?
    I wouldn’t have thought so for voters but for any volunteers it will be a hard slog during the day . In terms of Mélenchon in 2017 he took more of the Muslim vote in round 1 than Macron which might come as a surprise .

    Melenchon won the under 25 vote and the Muslim and atheist vote in the first round in 2017. Which is not that surprising as his voter base was and is very similar to Corbyn's in 2017 and 2019
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,286
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    2% drop for conservatives but no increase in labour percentage

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1512868411197566976?t=SlCuV3Lgn2LnRZjK3SrqDQ&s=19

    Broken record mode = on. The Conservatives are not being hit in the polls by the supposedly deep hole Rishi Sunak has dug. It might happen, of course, but so far it looks like it is only Tory activists who want shot of him.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    StillWaters said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    StillWaters said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Love him or hate him, one has to admit that Boris has had a terrific week: lauded as the saviour of Ukraine whilst brilliantly portraying rival Rishi as the ultimate Citizen of Nowhere and cosmopolitan dandy, surely the ultimate insult amongst the Tory base. Boris is lord of all he surveys.
    Mm. He now has to fulfil his promises. For instance, are the AFVs the Mastiffs we've already heard about? And what's the British Army going to do for rides?
    NEW: Total UK aid to Ukraine announced today and yesterday;

    • 120 armoured vehicles and new anti-ship missiles
    • $130m worth of Starstreak anti-aircraft missiles, 800 anti-tank missiles, and high-tech loitering munitions for precision strikes
    • $500 million in World Bank
    https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1512842016920637444

    I ham reluctant to quibble over the government’s support for Ukraine.

    It’s not complicated. It’s entirely possible fully to support them on this, and to be determined to vote to kick them out at the next election.
    Nice of Total UK to help… shame that Total France is still grubbing for shekels in Russia
    I love the way you said shekels.

    Love it.
    I love the way that Israel is unambiguously standing behind Ukraine with full thrusted support about the illegal occupation of her land by an aggressive neighbour
    Dem 4 x 2s, eh?

    Why do you think Total France trades or accounts in shekels?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    HYUFD said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Macron is heading to top the first round poll again with Le Pen again likely to be his runoff opponent. However the runoff itself later in the month looks a much closer affair than 2017, with Le Pen polling around 10 to 15% higher than the 34% she got then

    Also on topic. Melenchon coming in the top 2 won’t be that much of a shock to anyone really will it?
    If he does, he’s actually a more difficult opponent for Macron, as he will slice and dice Macron in head to head debate, and it will be much easier for Le Pens yellow jacket, EU sceptic and Nationalist vote to transfer to Melenchon than Melenchon’s ethnic vote to transfer to Le Pen.
    According to the latest Harris poll Le Pen on 24% is closer to Macron on 27% than Melenchon on 18% is to Le Pen.

    In terms of the runoff Le Pen gets 48.5% v Macron while Melenchon gets only 43% against the President.

    33% of Pecresse voters would vote for Le Pen but just 12% for Melenchon. 84% of Zemmour voters would vote for Le Pen but only 15% for Melenchon.

    21% of Melenchon voters would vote for Le Pen and 30% of Le Pen voters for Melenchon however, not a vast difference

    http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2022/04/Rapport-Harris-Interactive-Toluna-V41-Intentions-de-vote-Presidentielle-2022-Challenges.pdf
    Those are fantasy polls until we have just two candidates. The who sceme of thinking it will transform in just 24 hours,
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