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If the polls are right Macron is heading for victory – politicalbetting.com
If the polls are right Macron is heading for victory – politicalbetting.com
After what can only be described as a lackluster Presidential campaign France goes to the polls tomorrow with predictions of a very low turnout. In that situation, we could just be in for a shock.
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@BBCLauraKT
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6h
BREAKING: Rishi Sunak's position as chancellor would be completely untenable in any party with a shred of decency, which means he is definitely keeping his job x
But somewhat superior to the alternative...
Well, it's possible, but it would be a break with tradition.
https://twitter.com/oilysailor/status/1512854209405894657
OK so I'm going to be busy (I'm about to be London-based half the week managing my soon to be former client's new UK business) but figure that as no rent is payable can afford to employ people. Have started building the business plan and the profit margins on some of these items are daft.
Just need to tackle the council's planning people. No physical alterations to the building needed inside or out, but its listed and the planning portal suggests even a change of use needs plans to show the non-work I plan on doing...
• 120 armoured vehicles and new anti-ship missiles
• $130m worth of Starstreak anti-aircraft missiles, 800 anti-tank missiles, and high-tech loitering munitions for precision strikes
• $500 million in World Bank
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1512842016920637444
I ham reluctant to quibble over the government’s support for Ukraine.
It’s not complicated. It’s entirely possible fully to support them on this, and to be determined to vote to kick them out at the next election.
As for Johnson, we'll see what the May local elections offer. To be Conservative leader you only need to be less of a loser than anyone else as John Major so aptly demonstrated.
Johnson will stay until or unless someone else likely to save large numbers of backbenchers from having to look for alternative employment emerges. If no one else does, the Conservative ship will sink with Johnson going down with it - if a "saviour" emerges, Johnson will be thrown overboard with maximum expediency.
They’ve missed that weird streak of shit/scab thing on his hooter.
Currently occupies place of honor in my back closet.
Was thinking of offering it to Mr Ed as a memento . . . or maybe as a dart board?
But she may win thanks to ‘le pouvoir d’achat’ says Neil:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10701233/Marine-Le-Pen-bring-chaos-Trump-says-ANDREW-NEIL.html
...just to make the point that grass roots matter
https://pointingdc.co.uk/2022/04/06/report-spooners-p2p-cherrybrook-20220403
I presume the UK and Ukraine are not agreeing a package that Ukraine will not be able to use. So whatever the details, I have to assume any issues have been worked out.
Am mindful of this having gotten my 2nd booster (Pf) a few days ago. Also that many have jobs & lifestyles that make it way harder than my own to avoid the contagion.
So give your anti-bodies a good pep talk & (I paraphrase) win this one for the OGHer!" (pron same as "ogre")
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
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16m
Staggering quote from
@ShippersUnbound
column: “He [Rishi Sunak] thinks Putin will still be there and that there will have to be a deal with him and if that’s the case is it really worth the pain to the economy?”.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1512855291376902148
Love it.
The first Boxers arrive from 2023.
AIUI unless the Raff has some air-launched Sea Eagles* in store, it'll otherwise be a matter of waiting for the makers to invent and build them.
Absolutely fucking incoherent thinking by Sunak.
Putin could well still be there, there’s no suggestion that anyone is targeting him or Russian soil, and it’s perfectly legitimate for the Chancellor to note (to the PM and Cabinet) the cost to the UK economy of sanctions against Russia. Why does everything need to be some massive scandal?
We will all have to review our next tory leader bets I think after Sunak's week from hell.
Ouch!
Which is a VERY dangerous thing for a Chancellor or the Exchequer. EDIT - For them & UK.
If he does, he’s actually a more difficult opponent for Macron, as he will slice and dice Macron in head to head debate, and it will be much easier for Le Pens yellow jacket, EU sceptic and Nationalist vote to transfer to Melenchon than Melenchon’s ethnic vote to transfer to Le Pen.
5%
6%
7%
If that's being 'lord of all he surveys' then Boris is a masterstroke for Labour fortunes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022
edit
Macrons polling has looked quite stable recently around the 26% mark . If you remove the bump he got around the time of the start of the war in Ukraine then nothing much has changed in terms of his support over the last few months.
Andrew Neil’s column was very good but one thing I disagree with . Mélenchons supporters if you take all the polling into account generally shows a slight edge to Macron in terms of second round transfers .
And add to that .
A large amount of his support comes from the Muslim population in France , current abstention rates are likely to include a disproportionate level of that community as they tend to be less likely to vote overall but if Le Pen looks to have a chance of the Presidency this will drive up that turnout .
Looking across the polling Le Pen is maxing out her second round polling because of low abstention rates amongst Zemmours voters who transfer to her .
That’s why turnout is key in the second round and this is something Macron has highlighted . If turnout goes up this is likely to be voters trying to stop Le Pen .
2 years, 1 month and 24 days max.
We're on the main road and there is on street parking and a layby across the road. We get an eclectic mix of people parking outside - from cars to HGVs to mahoosive Clarson-sized tractors. Suspect they will want to consider that as part of the change of use application, but as there was no parking when it was a bank and the new shop across the road (shop converted to house reconverted to shop) also has on street parking only.
What I am trying to get my head around is disabled access. There is an existing ramp to the front door, but the toilets are down a wheelchair unfriendly corridor having gone up two small steps. Realistically that isn't something that can be changed. I know plenty of existing premises with wholly inaccessible toilets so I know it isn't a barrier. However, the rear fire door is also up those two steps. Was open as a bank til 2016 so was in code back then, wonder what may have changed...
Kelly Clarkson - Whole Lotta Woman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESA9kosNx-U
BTW have you worked out where Dodos used to live? It wasn't New Zealand!
Yes indeed, I am Mrs Sunak.
In terms of the runoff Le Pen gets 48.5% v Macron while Melenchon gets only 43% against the President.
33% of Pecresse voters would vote for Le Pen but just 12% for Melenchon. 84% of Zemmour voters would vote for Le Pen but only 15% for Melenchon.
21% of Melenchon voters would vote for Le Pen and 30% of Le Pen voters for Melenchon however, not a vast difference
http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2022/04/Rapport-Harris-Interactive-Toluna-V41-Intentions-de-vote-Presidentielle-2022-Challenges.pdf
“Russia to Fast-Track Adoption of Deported Ukraine Orphans: Kyiv Officials”
Article II of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide:
E) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.
https://un.org/en/genocideprevention/genocide.shtml
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1512798107276296196
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1512867082932793347
Politically that would be mad, but with this government, who knows.
The disabled bathroom access is what might get you - the bank may have had grandfather rights as they would have been staff rather than public toilets, which would be a requirement for a restaurant/cafe. It may be as simple as having a couple of ramps made up, which could be either temporary (think of what they use on trains for wheelchair access) or semi-permanent (a metal structure sitting on the floor that replaces the steps).
I’m not really au fait with listed building consent, except to note that it adds zeros to the cost of doing anything! Things like wiring paths for the fire alarm system can be the subject of extensive discussion.
I used to do IT for restaurants a couple of decades ago, trying to run data cables was always a nightmare in listed buildings because we had to get permissions rather than just doing it.
Good luck in your talks with the council, maybe you might need to consider running for office!
And Ukraine has made effective use of equally old ex Soviet kit elsewhere.
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1512868411197566976?t=SlCuV3Lgn2LnRZjK3SrqDQ&s=19
Why do you think Total France trades or accounts in shekels?