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If the polls are right Macron is heading for victory – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,585

    So much of what the Russians are doing in Ukraine is deeply hideous and scary. I'm finding it harder and harder to accept us not doing more, and halting all purchases of anything from Russia, and perhaps even fighting alongside Ukraine.

    “Russia to Fast-Track Adoption of Deported Ukraine Orphans: Kyiv Officials”

    Article II of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide:

    E) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

    https://un.org/en/genocideprevention/genocide.shtml


    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1512798107276296196

    … As a historian of mass killing, I am hard pressed to think of many examples where states explicitly advertise the genocidal character of their own actions right at at the moment those actions become public knowledge. From a legal perspective, the existence of such a text (in the larger context of similar statements and Vladimir Putin's repeated denial that Ukraine exists) makes the charge of genocide far easier to make. Legally, genocide means both actions that destroy a group in whole or in part, combined with some intention to do so. Russia has done the deed and confessed to the intention.
    https://snyder.substack.com/p/russias-genocide-handbook?s=r
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,461

    2% drop for conservatives but no increase in labour percentage

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1512868411197566976?t=SlCuV3Lgn2LnRZjK3SrqDQ&s=19

    Or, to put it another slightly more positive way, Labour's lead is up by 2?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited April 2022
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Love him or hate him, one has to admit that Boris has had a terrific week: lauded as the saviour of Ukraine whilst brilliantly portraying rival Rishi as the ultimate Citizen of Nowhere and cosmopolitan dandy, surely the ultimate insult amongst the Tory base. Boris is lord of all he surveys.
    Why doesn’t he call that June election then, before the economic horrors of the next three years
    Is this a new change to the Elections & Referendums Act?

    2 years, 1 month and 24 days max.
    this is the speech Boris can deliver from the No 10 lectern on spring morning full of promise.

    “We have had two and a half years of unprecedented international crisis, we now ask you to endorse your trust given in 2019 and allow us a full parliamentary term to deliver what we promised you, and we ache with every sinew to deliver for you. deliver the covid recovery, deliver on the promise of Brexit to level up the country, and ensure the right measures are taken to secure our nations security, and our energy security. This is the “who do you trust to now deliver on Brexit” election, who do you trust to deliver on levelling up, who do your trust to deliver on energy security, and deliver on our nations security? Do you trust Labour to deliver any of those things? The most important issues defining this decade? Do you trust Labour to stand up to Putin and protect this country after the last twelve years of Labour defence and foreign policy? They still have 7 people sat prominently on their front bench who recently voted to neutralise our nations defences. Can you even trust this Labour leader to keep your wives and children safe in public toilets and hospital beds?”

    “A vote for Labour means without doubt the end of the Union. If you believe in the UK your only option is to vote Conservative and prevent the coalition from hell.
    A vote for Labour is a threat to the Brexit you voted for, and turns back the clock on all Brexit gains and benefits we have made.
    A vote for Labour is our defences neutralised, meaning we will all end up speaking Russian.”
    “"And yes, I have to tell you, it's an absolutely incredible fact - and it's true - at a time when Russia is being led by a president who is capable of bullying and threats, who's plainly capable of making dangerous and irrational decisions, we have a Labour Party, a Labour Party, whose shadow cabinet is stuffed with people who only recently voted to abolish the UK's independent nuclear deterrent. That's right. Eight of them.
    "Do we want them in charge, my friends, at this moment? Do we want them running up the white flag? Do you see them standing up to Putin's blackmail?"

    Imagine this from every Tory hustings and every Tory newspaper for a whole month. What makes Labour convinced they can top 250 seats this June let only 280? Getting those seats back the Corbyn madness threw away ain’t going to be quite as easy as so many hope for, is it? A June election is simply too soon for them, and close enough to December 2019 for voters to still be listening to the Tory’s talk of sunlit uplands.

    If the May locals point to Conservatives getting working majority in June election, and it looks like 23 and 24 could be tricky for them to hold an election in, we have to consider possibility there is a General Election within the next 3 months;
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    2% drop for conservatives but no increase in labour percentage

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1512868411197566976?t=SlCuV3Lgn2LnRZjK3SrqDQ&s=19

    Or, to put it another slightly more positive way, Labour's lead is up by 2?
    Is somebody trying to spin this?
  • 2% drop for conservatives but no increase in labour percentage

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1512868411197566976?t=SlCuV3Lgn2LnRZjK3SrqDQ&s=19

    Or, to put it another slightly more positive way, Labour's lead is up by 2?
    They need to see conservative voters moving to them especially after the Rishi debacle
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,102
    By my reckoning the latest Parliament can be dissolved for the next General Election is Friday March 22nd 2024. Someone may correct that but it's 25 working days from May 2nd, with Good Friday and a Bank Holiday Monday to count.

    So we are under 24 months to the start of the next General Election campaign ... maximum.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,102
    @ OpiniumResearch
    @ ObserverUK
    This week’s poll shows Labour’s lead expanding to 4 points as the Tories drop 2 from a fortnight ago

    Brilliant Boris with the most wonderful week in the universe. Lord of all he surveys. @Leon.
  • Heathener said:

    By my reckoning the latest Parliament can be dissolved for the next General Election is Friday March 22nd 2024. Someone may correct that but it's 25 working days from May 2nd, with Good Friday and a Bank Holiday Monday to count.

    So we are under 24 months to the start of the next General Election campaign ... maximum.

    This has been discussed in some depth and the last day is the 15th January 2025 though that is highly unlikely
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Why the double flags?
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,395
    Just watching Boris walking around Kyiv. Being so instantly recognisable, and so familiar, is such an advantage. Zelinskyy doesn't have to do introductions. "It's Boris". Would any other Western leader get a similar reception? It's why we shouldn't write him off.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,748
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Entertainingly off-topic but we've decided we want to open a cafe. We own (one of) the former bank(s) in the village, there's a decent catchment, the previous cafe shut 6 years ago when the owners retired and is still talked about, and we've had a neb round various other similar establishments and looks like a good idea.

    OK so I'm going to be busy (I'm about to be London-based half the week managing my soon to be former client's new UK business) but figure that as no rent is payable can afford to employ people. Have started building the business plan and the profit margins on some of these items are daft.

    Just need to tackle the council's planning people. No physical alterations to the building needed inside or out, but its listed and the planning portal suggests even a change of use needs plans to show the non-work I plan on doing...

    The plans will need to show the internal layout - number of seats, kitchen equipment including vent ducting etc - and any external signage attached to the building. You might also need to show you have places for people to park, depending on the precise location and how anal the council are about these things. The margins can seem daft, but there’s lots of wastage and the staff costs can add up. That said, with no rent it should be possible to make a decent business out of it. Good luck! :+1:
    Thanks - am going to speak to the local planning office and get an understanding from them what they need. Ducting? We're golden. Food prep will be in the former comms room and there is an existing extraction fan. Simply replace with a modern one with no holes needing to be cut. Clearly they'll need to look at parking for the change of use application.

    We're on the main road and there is on street parking and a layby across the road. We get an eclectic mix of people parking outside - from cars to HGVs to mahoosive Clarson-sized tractors. Suspect they will want to consider that as part of the change of use application, but as there was no parking when it was a bank and the new shop across the road (shop converted to house reconverted to shop) also has on street parking only.

    What I am trying to get my head around is disabled access. There is an existing ramp to the front door, but the toilets are down a wheelchair unfriendly corridor having gone up two small steps. Realistically that isn't something that can be changed. I know plenty of existing premises with wholly inaccessible toilets so I know it isn't a barrier. However, the rear fire door is also up those two steps. Was open as a bank til 2016 so was in code back then, wonder what may have changed...
    Sounds good!

    The disabled bathroom access is what might get you - the bank may have had grandfather rights as they would have been staff rather than public toilets, which would be a requirement for a restaurant/cafe. It may be as simple as having a couple of ramps made up, which could be either temporary (think of what they use on trains for wheelchair access) or semi-permanent (a metal structure sitting on the floor that replaces the steps).

    I’m not really au fait with listed building consent, except to note that it adds zeros to the cost of doing anything! Things like wiring paths for the fire alarm system can be the subject of extensive discussion.

    I used to do IT for restaurants a couple of decades ago, trying to run data cables was always a nightmare in listed buildings because we had to get permissions rather than just doing it.

    Good luck in your talks with the council, maybe you might need to consider running for office!
    @RochdalePioneers exiting times....
    If it is in scotland the planning portal will not be relevant (i think), you need to look at e-planning.scot - the regulations about this stuff differ quite a bit between England and Scotlant, I believe.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,943

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Love him or hate him, one has to admit that Boris has had a terrific week: lauded as the saviour of Ukraine whilst brilliantly portraying rival Rishi as the ultimate Citizen of Nowhere and cosmopolitan dandy, surely the ultimate insult amongst the Tory base. Boris is lord of all he surveys.
    Why doesn’t he call that June election then, before the economic horrors of the next three years
    Is this a new change to the Elections & Referendums Act?

    2 years, 1 month and 24 days max.
    this is the speech Boris can deliver from the No 10 lectern on spring morning full of promise.

    “We have had two and a half years of unprecedented international crisis, we now ask you to endorse your trust given in 2019 and allow us a full parliamentary term to deliver what we promised you, andvsche with every sinew to deliver for you. deliver the covid recovery, deliver on the promise of Brexit to level up the country, and ensure the right measures are taken to secure our nations security, and our energy security. This is the “who do you trust to now deliver on Brexit” election, who do you trust to deliver on levelling up, who do your trust to deliver on energy security, and deliver on our nations security? Do you trust Labour to deliver any of those things? The most important issues defining this decade? Do you trust Labour to stand up to Putin and protect this country after the last twelve years of Labour defence and foreign policy? They still have 7 people sat prominently on their front bench who recently voted to neutralise our nations defences. Can you even trust this Labour leader to keep your wives and children safe in public toilets and hospital beds?”

    “A vote for Labour means without doubt the end of the Union. If you believe in the UK your only option is to vote Conservative and prevent the coalition from hell.
    A vote for Labour is a threat to the Brexit you voted for, and turns back the clock on all Brexit gains and benefits we have made.
    A vote for Labour is our defences neutralised, meaning we will all end up speaking Russian.”
    “"And yes, I have to tell you, it's an absolutely incredible fact - and it's true - at a time when Russia is being led by a president who is capable of bullying and threats, who's plainly capable of making dangerous and irrational decisions, we have a Labour Party, a Labour Party, whose shadow cabinet is stuffed with people who only recently voted to abolish the UK's independent nuclear deterrent. That's right. Eight of them.
    "Do we want them in charge, my friends, at this moment? Do we want them running up the white flag? Do you see them standing up to Putin's blackmail?"

    Imagine this from every Tory hustings and every Tory newspaper for a whole month. What makes Labour convinced they can top 250 seats this June let only 280? Getting those seats back the Corbyn madness threw away ain’t going to be quite as easy as so many hope for, is it? A June election is simply too soon for them, and close enough to December 2019 for voters to still be listening to the Tory’s talk of sunlit uplands.

    If the May locals point to Conservatives getting working majority in June election, and it looks like 23 and 24 could be tricky for them to hold an election in, we have to consider possibility there is a General Election within the next 3 months;
    That is why Labour should attack the Conservatives on their decades of defence cuts.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,102

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Love him or hate him, one has to admit that Boris has had a terrific week: lauded as the saviour of Ukraine whilst brilliantly portraying rival Rishi as the ultimate Citizen of Nowhere and cosmopolitan dandy, surely the ultimate insult amongst the Tory base. Boris is lord of all he surveys.
    Why doesn’t he call that June election then, before the economic horrors of the next three years
    Is this a new change to the Elections & Referendums Act?

    2 years, 1 month and 24 days max.
    this is the speech Boris can deliver from the No 10 lectern on spring morning full of promise.

    “We have had two and a half years of unprecedented international crisis, we now ask you to endorse your trust given in 2019 and allow us a full parliamentary term to deliver what we promised you, andvsche with every sinew to deliver for you. deliver the covid recovery, deliver on the promise of Brexit to level up the country, and ensure the right measures are taken to secure our nations security, and our energy security. This is the “who do you trust to now deliver on Brexit” election, who do you trust to deliver on levelling up, who do your trust to deliver on energy security, and deliver on our nations security? Do you trust Labour to deliver any of those things? The most important issues defining this decade? Do you trust Labour to stand up to Putin and protect this country after the last twelve years of Labour defence and foreign policy? They still have 7 people sat prominently on their front bench who recently voted to neutralise our nations defences. Can you even trust this Labour leader to keep your wives and children safe in public toilets and hospital beds?”

    “A vote for Labour means without doubt the end of the Union. If you believe in the UK your only option is to vote Conservative and prevent the coalition from hell.
    A vote for Labour is a threat to the Brexit you voted for, and turns back the clock on all Brexit gains and benefits we have made.
    A vote for Labour is our defences neutralised, meaning we will all end up speaking Russian.”
    “"And yes, I have to tell you, it's an absolutely incredible fact - and it's true - at a time when Russia is being led by a president who is capable of bullying and threats, who's plainly capable of making dangerous and irrational decisions, we have a Labour Party, a Labour Party, whose shadow cabinet is stuffed with people who only recently voted to abolish the UK's independent nuclear deterrent. That's right. Eight of them.
    "Do we want them in charge, my friends, at this moment? Do we want them running up the white flag? Do you see them standing up to Putin's blackmail?"

    Imagine this from every Tory hustings and every Tory newspaper for a whole month. What makes Labour convinced they can top 250 seats this June let only 280? Getting those seats back the Corbyn madness threw away ain’t going to be quite as easy as so many hope for, is it? A June election is simply too soon for them, and close enough to December 2019 for voters to still be listening to the Tory’s talk of sunlit uplands.

    If the May locals point to Conservatives getting working majority in June election, and it looks like 23 and 24 could be tricky for them to hold an election in, we have to consider possibility there is a General Election within the next 3 months;
    Love it. Just magnificent.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    edited April 2022

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Amazing what AI can do these days.






    This is what DALL.E mini produces
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Sandpit said:

    At a handshake distance. @BorisJohnson and @ZelenskyyUa walked through the center of Kyiv and talked to ordinary Kyivans. This is what democracy looks like. This is what courage looks like. This is what true friendship between peoples and between nations looks like.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1512867082932793347

    Wow, that’s impressive. Well done Boris! :+1:
    'At a handshake distance' feels like an odd opener to that comment. Other than during Covid did people generally walk together further apart?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,537
    edited April 2022
    As everyone knows in here I think Johnson is a pathological liar and would rather chew my own arm off than vote Tory . However I do think in terms of weapons and sanctions no 10 have done a very good job . Hopefully their support for Ukraine democracy translates itself into wanting to maintain that in the UK rather than try to erode that with trying to muzzle any organization that doesn’t tow the line and give undying support to the Tories !

    Add to that the proposed voter ID law is simply voter suppression, seeking a solution to a problem that doesn’t exist .
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,102
    By the way, foreign policy doesn't win elections. No one cares.

    (The Falklands was different because Maggie won back a lump of rock that was part of Britain and Labour were led by an old left winger in a donkey jacket - allegedly)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    At a handshake distance. @BorisJohnson and @ZelenskyyUa walked through the center of Kyiv and talked to ordinary Kyivans. This is what democracy looks like. This is what courage looks like. This is what true friendship between peoples and between nations looks like.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1512867082932793347

    If that's courage they should seek out Jeremy Bowen. He has been visiting some seriously dangerous war zones and sending back some exceptional stories.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited April 2022

    Heathener said:

    By my reckoning the latest Parliament can be dissolved for the next General Election is Friday March 22nd 2024. Someone may correct that but it's 25 working days from May 2nd, with Good Friday and a Bank Holiday Monday to count.

    So we are under 24 months to the start of the next General Election campaign ... maximum.

    This has been discussed in some depth and the last day is the 23rd anuary 2025 though that is highly unlikely

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • boulayboulay Posts: 3,773

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Love him or hate him, one has to admit that Boris has had a terrific week: lauded as the saviour of Ukraine whilst brilliantly portraying rival Rishi as the ultimate Citizen of Nowhere and cosmopolitan dandy, surely the ultimate insult amongst the Tory base. Boris is lord of all he surveys.
    Mm. He now has to fulfil his promises. For instance, are the AFVs the Mastiffs we've already heard about? And what's the British Army going to do for rides?
    NEW: Total UK aid to Ukraine announced today and yesterday;

    • 120 armoured vehicles and new anti-ship missiles
    • $130m worth of Starstreak anti-aircraft missiles, 800 anti-tank missiles, and high-tech loitering munitions for precision strikes
    • $500 million in World Bank

    https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1512842016920637444

    I ham reluctant to quibble over the government’s support for Ukraine.

    It’s not complicated. It’s entirely possible fully to support them on this, and to be determined to vote to kick them out at the next election.
    Nice of Total UK to help… shame that Total France is still grubbing for shekels in Russia
    Crikey, you left out “big nosed Total executives” and “pulling puppet strings” and a reference to using Rothschild’s bank to process the shekels.

    Could have just written Euros or Roubles if you weren’t making some point but there you go.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,102

    we shouldn't write him off.

    That is certainly true.

    I don't underestimate him. He's an obscene man. But dangerous.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    Heathener said:

    By my reckoning the latest Parliament can be dissolved for the next General Election is Friday March 22nd 2024. Someone may correct that but it's 25 working days from May 2nd, with Good Friday and a Bank Holiday Monday to count.

    So we are under 24 months to the start of the next General Election campaign ... maximum.

    @TSE is the man to consult on this.

    It does turn out to be an election in about May 2024.

    I had imagined that a full 5 year term was available, but that's not the case.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    Just watching Boris walking around Kyiv. Being so instantly recognisable, and so familiar, is such an advantage. Zelinskyy doesn't have to do introductions. "It's Boris". Would any other Western leader get a similar reception? It's why we shouldn't write him off.

    Unfortunately, that is a valid point.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,544

    At a handshake distance. @BorisJohnson and @ZelenskyyUa walked through the center of Kyiv and talked to ordinary Kyivans. This is what democracy looks like. This is what courage looks like. This is what true friendship between peoples and between nations looks like.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1512867082932793347

    Kudos to Boris for that. Perhaps his clown-act is more of an act than many of us thought (*). It's a difficult balancing act, going to meet members of a foreign public, and not quite knowing what they are saying. It might have been: "You are a bastard who shags his mother and sleeps with dolphins!"

    One thing I do note in that is how western/European the architecture looks. Some views could almost be parts of London. Not all eastern Europe is brutalist concrete; or if it is, it is well-disguised. This is a foreign war, but not quite as foreign as the Middle East ...

    One thing I didn't know before this conflict (was it on here?) is how much of Russia was built by western architects and engineers - from Scots in Tsarist times to entire factories under Stalin before WWII.

    https://www.historytoday.com/archive/scottish-architects-tsarist-russia
    https://www.rbth.com/arts/2014/09/22/russias_greatest_scots_men_who_left_their_mark_on_moscow_40017.html
    https://www.americanheritage.com/how-america-helped-build-soviet-machine
    (*) This does not excuse or condone his other character flaws, though...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    At a handshake distance. @BorisJohnson and @ZelenskyyUa walked through the center of Kyiv and talked to ordinary Kyivans. This is what democracy looks like. This is what courage looks like. This is what true friendship between peoples and between nations looks like.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1512867082932793347

    Wow, that’s impressive. Well done Boris! :+1:
    'At a handshake distance' feels like an odd opener to that comment. Other than during Covid did people generally walk together further apart?
    I think the ‘handshake distance’ referred to that between the politicians and the public, rather than between the politicians themselves. There were clearly and unsurprisingly a lot of soldiers accompanying the two men, making sure no one tried to get close.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926
    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Amazing what AI can do these days.






    This is what DALL.E mini produces
    How do you create stuff on DALLE? :curious:
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    Heathener said:

    By my reckoning the latest Parliament can be dissolved for the next General Election is Friday March 22nd 2024. Someone may correct that but it's 25 working days from May 2nd, with Good Friday and a Bank Holiday Monday to count.

    So we are under 24 months to the start of the next General Election campaign ... maximum.

    You’ll have to explain your workings a bit there. Elections don’t have to be in May.
  • Omnium said:

    Heathener said:

    By my reckoning the latest Parliament can be dissolved for the next General Election is Friday March 22nd 2024. Someone may correct that but it's 25 working days from May 2nd, with Good Friday and a Bank Holiday Monday to count.

    So we are under 24 months to the start of the next General Election campaign ... maximum.

    @TSE is the man to consult on this.

    It does turn out to be an election in about May 2024.

    I had imagined that a full 5 year term was available, but that's not the case.
    This is from wiki - 23rd January 2025

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,544
    Heathener said:

    we shouldn't write him off.

    That is certainly true.

    I don't underestimate him. He's an obscene man. But dangerous.
    Rubbish. He's not 'obscene'; as for dangerous: any politician potentially could be, or any one with power.

    FFS, Johnson has enough flaws without trying to invent new ones.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    At a handshake distance. @BorisJohnson and @ZelenskyyUa walked through the center of Kyiv and talked to ordinary Kyivans. This is what democracy looks like. This is what courage looks like. This is what true friendship between peoples and between nations looks like.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1512867082932793347

    Wow, that’s impressive. Well done Boris! :+1:
    'At a handshake distance' feels like an odd opener to that comment. Other than during Covid did people generally walk together further apart?
    It could also be a dig at Putin hiding himself away from contact with people.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,102

    Heathener said:

    By my reckoning the latest Parliament can be dissolved for the next General Election is Friday March 22nd 2024. Someone may correct that but it's 25 working days from May 2nd, with Good Friday and a Bank Holiday Monday to count.

    So we are under 24 months to the start of the next General Election campaign ... maximum.

    This has been discussed in some depth and the last day is the 15th January 2025 though that is highly unlikely
    Oh. Is that serious? That with repeal of the FTPA it can go to Jan 2025?

    As you'll realise I don't stick around on here much so I've missed that discussion.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited April 2022
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    By my reckoning the latest Parliament can be dissolved for the next General Election is Friday March 22nd 2024. Someone may correct that but it's 25 working days from May 2nd, with Good Friday and a Bank Holiday Monday to count.

    So we are under 24 months to the start of the next General Election campaign ... maximum.

    This has been discussed in some depth and the last day is the 15th January 2025 though that is highly unlikely
    Oh. Is that serious? That with repeal of the FTPA it can go to Jan 2025?

    As you'll realise I don't stick around on here much so I've missed that discussion.
    Actually it is the 23rd January 2025
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,102

    Heathener said:

    we shouldn't write him off.

    That is certainly true.

    I don't underestimate him. He's an obscene man. But dangerous.
    Rubbish. He's not 'obscene'; as for dangerous: any politician potentially could be, or any one with power.

    FFS, Johnson has enough flaws without trying to invent new ones.
    Cut the patronising guff JJ thanks.

    I'll stick with 'obscene'. Perfect adjective for Johnson.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    This quote from @ShippersUnbound on Sunak’s view of Putin & the Ukraine-Russia war (NB the PM is with Zelensky) is quite something. Sunak’s hopes of being leader destroyed by this piece https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunak-ponders-political-future-as-wife-escapes-downing-street-goldfish-bowl-5gftqcmkk https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1512858888747601923/photo/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    EXCL: Under-fire Rishi Sunak moved his family’s belongings out of Downing Street today as he clings onto his job as Chancellor. - our @mikeysmith reports https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/rishi-sunak-moves-out-downing-26676236
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Roger said:

    At a handshake distance. @BorisJohnson and @ZelenskyyUa walked through the center of Kyiv and talked to ordinary Kyivans. This is what democracy looks like. This is what courage looks like. This is what true friendship between peoples and between nations looks like.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1512867082932793347

    If that's courage they should seek out Jeremy Bowen. He has been visiting some seriously dangerous war zones and sending back some exceptional stories.
    Whilst I don't know exactly how courageous it is for UvDL or Boris to be wandering round now that Kyiv is somewhat safer than it was, it is possible for courage to be at different levels for different people in different roles. Bowen reports on wars, his base level of activity is already pretty courageous in that respect, but heads of government (or in UvDL's case head of the Commission) putting themselves at any risk of harm is not judged as if they are war reporters, as bluntly if they were taken out the impact would be far greater.

    It may even be foolishly risky to put themselves as leaders in such potential risk, though clearly they waited until advised it was ok to do so.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    edited April 2022
    Omnium said:

    Heathener said:

    By my reckoning the latest Parliament can be dissolved for the next General Election is Friday March 22nd 2024. Someone may correct that but it's 25 working days from May 2nd, with Good Friday and a Bank Holiday Monday to count.

    So we are under 24 months to the start of the next General Election campaign ... maximum.

    @TSE is the man to consult on this.

    It does turn out to be an election in about May 2024.

    I had imagined that a full 5 year term was available, but that's not the case.
    The DCPA 2022 means the the next general election can be held no later than the 23rd of January 2025.

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2022/11/contents/enacted
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926

    2% drop for conservatives but no increase in labour percentage

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1512868411197566976?t=SlCuV3Lgn2LnRZjK3SrqDQ&s=19

    Shit! I forgot to post "FOUR MONTHS since the last Tory poll lead" back on Wednesday!

    Oh, well. FOUR MONTHS and three days since the last Tory poll lead.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,102

    Heathener said:

    By my reckoning the latest Parliament can be dissolved for the next General Election is Friday March 22nd 2024. Someone may correct that but it's 25 working days from May 2nd, with Good Friday and a Bank Holiday Monday to count.

    So we are under 24 months to the start of the next General Election campaign ... maximum.

    You’ll have to explain your workings a bit there. Elections don’t have to be in May.
    Sorry I lost the word 'max' on that update. The maximum or latest ... but I'm now thoroughly confused and have been corrected (I think) by Big G although Omnium and TSE are suggesting something different. I think!!

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    At a handshake distance. @BorisJohnson and @ZelenskyyUa walked through the center of Kyiv and talked to ordinary Kyivans. This is what democracy looks like. This is what courage looks like. This is what true friendship between peoples and between nations looks like.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1512867082932793347

    Wow, that’s impressive. Well done Boris! :+1:
    'At a handshake distance' feels like an odd opener to that comment. Other than during Covid did people generally walk together further apart?
    It could also be a dig at Putin hiding himself away from contact with people.
    Unfair comment, Putin probably shakes a lot of hands, they are just not attached to the person they belonged to.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    we shouldn't write him off.

    That is certainly true.

    I don't underestimate him. He's an obscene man. But dangerous.
    Rubbish. He's not 'obscene'; as for dangerous: any politician potentially could be, or any one with power.

    FFS, Johnson has enough flaws without trying to invent new ones.
    Cut the patronising guff JJ thanks.

    I'll stick with 'obscene'. Perfect adjective for Johnson.
    Gentle tip: JJ's reasoned approach is far more convincing than your hyperbole.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    One thing I didn't know before this conflict (was it on here?) is how much of Russia was built by western architects and engineers - from Scots in Tsarist times to entire factories under Stalin before WWII.

    The city of Donetsk was founded by a Welshman.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Hughes_(businessman)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    edited April 2022

    Omnium said:

    Heathener said:

    By my reckoning the latest Parliament can be dissolved for the next General Election is Friday March 22nd 2024. Someone may correct that but it's 25 working days from May 2nd, with Good Friday and a Bank Holiday Monday to count.

    So we are under 24 months to the start of the next General Election campaign ... maximum.

    @TSE is the man to consult on this.

    It does turn out to be an election in about May 2024.

    I had imagined that a full 5 year term was available, but that's not the case.
    This is from wiki - 23rd January 2025

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election
    I had thought dec24, but I'm entirely conviced (mainly by @TSE, although any fault must be mine) that it's june-ish 2024 at the latest.

    It now seems TSE is saying 23-01-2025.

    If he's saying that then I'm sure he's right. Maybe he's changed his view, or maybe I've mis-remembered.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Scott_xP said:

    This quote from @ShippersUnbound on Sunak’s view of Putin & the Ukraine-Russia war (NB the PM is with Zelensky) is quite something. Sunak’s hopes of being leader destroyed by this piece https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunak-ponders-political-future-as-wife-escapes-downing-street-goldfish-bowl-5gftqcmkk https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1512858888747601923/photo/1

    Rachel Wearmouth joining the Dan Hodges club, of thinking there’s a massive story in the Chancellor pointing out to the Cabinet, the cost to the UK economy of sanctions against Russia. It’s his job to do just that.

    Someone really doesn’t like Sunak, that much is clear.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,102

    Omnium said:

    Heathener said:

    By my reckoning the latest Parliament can be dissolved for the next General Election is Friday March 22nd 2024. Someone may correct that but it's 25 working days from May 2nd, with Good Friday and a Bank Holiday Monday to count.

    So we are under 24 months to the start of the next General Election campaign ... maximum.

    @TSE is the man to consult on this.

    It does turn out to be an election in about May 2024.

    I had imagined that a full 5 year term was available, but that's not the case.
    The DCPA 2022 means the the next general election can be held no later than the 23rd of January 2025.

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2022/11/contents/enacted
    Thanks for this.

    Wow. Whilst Johnson is unlikely to go for a post-Christmas January election he did win in a December.

    But, basically, an autumn 2024 election remains a possibility therefore.

    I reckon the Conservatives need as much time as they can to massage the economy and people's finances so they will go long.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926

    One thing I didn't know before this conflict (was it on here?) is how much of Russia was built by western architects and engineers - from Scots in Tsarist times to entire factories under Stalin before WWII.

    The city of Donetsk was founded by a Welshman.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Hughes_(businessman)
    It's old name was Yuzovka, presumably from the Russian/Ukrainian pronunciation of "Hughes".
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    By my reckoning the latest Parliament can be dissolved for the next General Election is Friday March 22nd 2024. Someone may correct that but it's 25 working days from May 2nd, with Good Friday and a Bank Holiday Monday to count.

    So we are under 24 months to the start of the next General Election campaign ... maximum.

    You’ll have to explain your workings a bit there. Elections don’t have to be in May.
    Sorry I lost the word 'max' on that update. The maximum or latest ... but I'm now thoroughly confused and have been corrected (I think) by Big G although Omnium and TSE are suggesting something different. I think!!

    I think in practical terms that’s a highly likely date, just not the latest possible.
  • Scott_xP said:

    EXCL: Under-fire Rishi Sunak moved his family’s belongings out of Downing Street today as he clings onto his job as Chancellor. - our @mikeysmith reports https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/rishi-sunak-moves-out-downing-26676236

    Looks as if tomorrow's headlines are already written with Boris's walk around Kyiv
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,544
    Roger said:

    At a handshake distance. @BorisJohnson and @ZelenskyyUa walked through the center of Kyiv and talked to ordinary Kyivans. This is what democracy looks like. This is what courage looks like. This is what true friendship between peoples and between nations looks like.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1512867082932793347

    If that's courage they should seek out Jeremy Bowen. He has been visiting some seriously dangerous war zones and sending back some exceptional stories.
    What's your personal 'courage'? Telling women they should be abused by the 'talent' in your industry? ;)

    Boris is PM. Going to the active warzone front is not his job (see Churchill after D-Day). His job is the politics - and this could be seen as an equivalent to Yalta or Tehran.

    Incidentally, there *may* have been a plot to kill Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt in Tehran. The interesting question is how real the plot was, and how much of it was of Stalin's creation:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Long_Jump
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,748
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Love him or hate him, one has to admit that Boris has had a terrific week: lauded as the saviour of Ukraine whilst brilliantly portraying rival Rishi as the ultimate Citizen of Nowhere and cosmopolitan dandy, surely the ultimate insult amongst the Tory base. Boris is lord of all he surveys.
    Mm. He now has to fulfil his promises. For instance, are the AFVs the Mastiffs we've already heard about? And what's the British Army going to do for rides?
    NEW: Total UK aid to Ukraine announced today and yesterday;

    • 120 armoured vehicles and new anti-ship missiles
    • $130m worth of Starstreak anti-aircraft missiles, 800 anti-tank missiles, and high-tech loitering munitions for precision strikes
    • $500 million in World Bank

    https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1512842016920637444

    I ham reluctant to quibble over the government’s support for Ukraine.

    It’s not complicated. It’s entirely possible fully to support them on this, and to be determined to vote to kick them out at the next election.
    Indeed. And frankly this is as good a use for any military hardware the UK possesses as any other use it was going to get.
    maybe there is something in the 'poking the bear' metaphor after all.
    the west is the bear, and Putin did the poking.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,585
    There is no compromise with this kind of thinking.
    https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1512818345489408006
    Medvedev: "A 'completely fake' nation and 'a copy of the Third Reich' that doesn’t deserve to exist."

    Solovyov: “Zelensky is Ukraine’s last president because there won’t be any Ukraine after that.”
  • Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Heathener said:

    By my reckoning the latest Parliament can be dissolved for the next General Election is Friday March 22nd 2024. Someone may correct that but it's 25 working days from May 2nd, with Good Friday and a Bank Holiday Monday to count.

    So we are under 24 months to the start of the next General Election campaign ... maximum.

    @TSE is the man to consult on this.

    It does turn out to be an election in about May 2024.

    I had imagined that a full 5 year term was available, but that's not the case.
    This is from wiki - 23rd January 2025

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election
    I had thought dec24, but I'm entirely conviced (mainly by @TSE, although any fault must be mine) that it's june-ish 2024 at the latest.
    Under the FTPA the next GE had to be held by May 2024, however there was a provision for a maximum of a 2 month delay in the event of something like a foot and mouth outbreak,

    But the the FTPA has been superseded by the DCPA 2022.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,093
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Love him or hate him, one has to admit that Boris has had a terrific week: lauded as the saviour of Ukraine whilst brilliantly portraying rival Rishi as the ultimate Citizen of Nowhere and cosmopolitan dandy, surely the ultimate insult amongst the Tory base. Boris is lord of all he surveys.
    Why doesn’t he call that June election then, before the economic horrors of the next three years
    Is this a new change to the Elections & Referendums Act?

    2 years, 1 month and 24 days max.
    this is the speech Boris can deliver from the No 10 lectern on spring morning full of promise.

    “We have had two and a half years of unprecedented international crisis, we now ask you to endorse your trust given in 2019 and allow us a full parliamentary term to deliver what we promised you, andvsche with every sinew to deliver for you. deliver the covid recovery, deliver on the promise of Brexit to level up the country, and ensure the right measures are taken to secure our nations security, and our energy security. This is the “who do you trust to now deliver on Brexit” election, who do you trust to deliver on levelling up, who do your trust to deliver on energy security, and deliver on our nations security? Do you trust Labour to deliver any of those things? The most important issues defining this decade? Do you trust Labour to stand up to Putin and protect this country after the last twelve years of Labour defence and foreign policy? They still have 7 people sat prominently on their front bench who recently voted to neutralise our nations defences. Can you even trust this Labour leader to keep your wives and children safe in public toilets and hospital beds?”

    “A vote for Labour means without doubt the end of the Union. If you believe in the UK your only option is to vote Conservative and prevent the coalition from hell.
    A vote for Labour is a threat to the Brexit you voted for, and turns back the clock on all Brexit gains and benefits we have made.
    A vote for Labour is our defences neutralised, meaning we will all end up speaking Russian.”
    “"And yes, I have to tell you, it's an absolutely incredible fact - and it's true - at a time when Russia is being led by a president who is capable of bullying and threats, who's plainly capable of making dangerous and irrational decisions, we have a Labour Party, a Labour Party, whose shadow cabinet is stuffed with people who only recently voted to abolish the UK's independent nuclear deterrent. That's right. Eight of them.
    "Do we want them in charge, my friends, at this moment? Do we want them running up the white flag? Do you see them standing up to Putin's blackmail?"

    Imagine this from every Tory hustings and every Tory newspaper for a whole month. What makes Labour convinced they can top 250 seats this June let only 280? Getting those seats back the Corbyn madness threw away ain’t going to be quite as easy as so many hope for, is it? A June election is simply too soon for them, and close enough to December 2019 for voters to still be listening to the Tory’s talk of sunlit uplands.

    If the May locals point to Conservatives getting working majority in June election, and it looks like 23 and 24 could be tricky for them to hold an election in, we have to consider possibility there is a General Election within the next 3 months;
    Love it. Just magnificent.
    The cynical political logic is sound, and if BoJo though he could get away with it, I'm sure he would consider it. If a few upstarts from the north have their parliamentary careers cut short... Well, serves them right for being upstarts from the north and not having gone to Eton.

    However.

    A tiny Conservative majority probably needs them to be 2-3 points ahead of Labour in the national vote. And the best guess is that, right now, they're 5 points behind, the gap has stopped closing and may be opening again. The actual results of the locals might indicate a better picture, but it's hard to see it being reliably better enough.

    Unless something else happens, HMS Cut and Run has probably sailed.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited April 2022

    One thing I didn't know before this conflict (was it on here?) is how much of Russia was built by western architects and engineers - from Scots in Tsarist times to entire factories under Stalin before WWII.

    The city of Donetsk was founded by a Welshman.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Hughes_(businessman)
    I love that sort of thing, like how AC Milan was founded by Englishmen and was also a Cricket club.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,544

    Noticed today that I’ve gone past a hundred miles and a quarter of a million steps walked this week. I clearly know how to relax on holiday! The walk today was really tough; I’ve never walked so slowly. In the middle of it I went just over eight miles in six hours, but I did go over a thousand metres up and down too.

    Meh. I averaged 120 miles a week over a year. ;)

    Hope you're enjoying it, and thanks for the photos. If it's any consolation, I spent the day with the little 'un at Gulliver's Land. I think you got the better deal...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    WT actual F!!!!!!


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    16m
    Staggering quote from
    @ShippersUnbound
    column: “He [Rishi Sunak] thinks Putin will still be there and that there will have to be a deal with him and if that’s the case is it really worth the pain to the economy?”.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1512855291376902148

    How very German/French of him.....
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,153
    There will be no GE until 2024
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,585
    It should be noted our weapons supplies pale in comparison with the numbers donated by Russia.

    https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1512836749629792258
    Ukraine is now visually confirmed to have captured 1000 vehicles and pieces of (heavy) military equipment from Russia.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Heathener said:

    By my reckoning the latest Parliament can be dissolved for the next General Election is Friday March 22nd 2024. Someone may correct that but it's 25 working days from May 2nd, with Good Friday and a Bank Holiday Monday to count.

    So we are under 24 months to the start of the next General Election campaign ... maximum.

    @TSE is the man to consult on this.

    It does turn out to be an election in about May 2024.

    I had imagined that a full 5 year term was available, but that's not the case.
    This is from wiki - 23rd January 2025

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election
    I had thought dec24, but I'm entirely conviced (mainly by @TSE, although any fault must be mine) that it's june-ish 2024 at the latest.
    Under the FTPA the next GE had to be held by May 2024, however there was a provision for a maximum of a 2 month delay in the event of something like a foot and mouth outbreak,

    But the the FTPA has been superseded by the DCPA 2022.
    I really should try to keep up!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This quote from @ShippersUnbound on Sunak’s view of Putin & the Ukraine-Russia war (NB the PM is with Zelensky) is quite something. Sunak’s hopes of being leader destroyed by this piece https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunak-ponders-political-future-as-wife-escapes-downing-street-goldfish-bowl-5gftqcmkk https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1512858888747601923/photo/1

    Someone really doesn’t like Sunak, that much is clear.
    The list grows longer every day.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,544
    kle4 said:

    One thing I didn't know before this conflict (was it on here?) is how much of Russia was built by western architects and engineers - from Scots in Tsarist times to entire factories under Stalin before WWII.

    The city of Donetsk was founded by a Welshman.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Hughes_(businessman)
    I love that sort of thing, like how AC Milan was founded by Englishmen and was also a Cricket club.
    Derby played football at the Baseball Ground and still plays Cricket at the Racecourse...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,943

    Roger said:

    At a handshake distance. @BorisJohnson and @ZelenskyyUa walked through the center of Kyiv and talked to ordinary Kyivans. This is what democracy looks like. This is what courage looks like. This is what true friendship between peoples and between nations looks like.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1512867082932793347

    If that's courage they should seek out Jeremy Bowen. He has been visiting some seriously dangerous war zones and sending back some exceptional stories.
    What's your personal 'courage'? Telling women they should be abused by the 'talent' in your industry? ;)

    Boris is PM. Going to the active warzone front is not his job (see Churchill after D-Day). His job is the politics - and this could be seen as an equivalent to Yalta or Tehran.

    Incidentally, there *may* have been a plot to kill Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt in Tehran. The interesting question is how real the plot was, and how much of it was of Stalin's creation:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Long_Jump
    Kyiv is not an active front. Boris is not that daft.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,102
    obscene
    ŏb-sēn′, əb-
    adjective

    Offensive to accepted standards of decency

    Morally repulsive; disgusting.
  • kle4 said:

    One thing I didn't know before this conflict (was it on here?) is how much of Russia was built by western architects and engineers - from Scots in Tsarist times to entire factories under Stalin before WWII.

    The city of Donetsk was founded by a Welshman.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Hughes_(businessman)
    I love that sort of thing, like how AC Milan was founded by Englishmen and was also a Cricket club.
    Derby played football at the Baseball Ground and still plays Cricket at the Racecourse...
    They really should have called it the Rounders Ground.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Noticed today that I’ve gone past a hundred miles and a quarter of a million steps walked this week. I clearly know how to relax on holiday! The walk today was really tough; I’ve never walked so slowly. In the middle of it I went just over eight miles in six hours, but I did go over a thousand metres up and down too.

    Meh. I averaged 120 miles a week over a year. ;)

    Hope you're enjoying it, and thanks for the photos. If it's any consolation, I spent the day with the little 'un at Gulliver's Land. I think you got the better deal...
    If you feel the need to refer to your son, feel very free indeed to use the words "my son." It would crank the ickiness factor way, way down

    Thanks
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,093
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This quote from @ShippersUnbound on Sunak’s view of Putin & the Ukraine-Russia war (NB the PM is with Zelensky) is quite something. Sunak’s hopes of being leader destroyed by this piece https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunak-ponders-political-future-as-wife-escapes-downing-street-goldfish-bowl-5gftqcmkk https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1512858888747601923/photo/1

    Someone really doesn’t like Sunak, that much is clear.
    The list grows longer every day.
    And yet he's still there.

    Boris hasn't pushed, Rishi hasn't jumped.

    Like a married couple who really ought to get divorced, but neither wants to give the other the satisfaction.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,713

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Love him or hate him, one has to admit that Boris has had a terrific week: lauded as the saviour of Ukraine whilst brilliantly portraying rival Rishi as the ultimate Citizen of Nowhere and cosmopolitan dandy, surely the ultimate insult amongst the Tory base. Boris is lord of all he surveys.
    Why doesn’t he call that June election then, before the economic horrors of the next three years
    Is this a new change to the Elections & Referendums Act?

    2 years, 1 month and 24 days max.
    this is the speech Boris can deliver from the No 10 lectern on spring morning full of promise.

    “We have had two and a half years of unprecedented international crisis, we now ask you to endorse your trust given in 2019 and allow us a full parliamentary term to deliver what we promised you, andvsche with every sinew to deliver for you. deliver the covid recovery, deliver on the promise of Brexit to level up the country, and ensure the right measures are taken to secure our nations security, and our energy security. This is the “who do you trust to now deliver on Brexit” election, who do you trust to deliver on levelling up, who do your trust to deliver on energy security, and deliver on our nations security? Do you trust Labour to deliver any of those things? The most important issues defining this decade? Do you trust Labour to stand up to Putin and protect this country after the last twelve years of Labour defence and foreign policy? They still have 7 people sat prominently on their front bench who recently voted to neutralise our nations defences. Can you even trust this Labour leader to keep your wives and children safe in public toilets and hospital beds?”

    “A vote for Labour means without doubt the end of the Union. If you believe in the UK your only option is to vote Conservative and prevent the coalition from hell.
    A vote for Labour is a threat to the Brexit you voted for, and turns back the clock on all Brexit gains and benefits we have made.
    A vote for Labour is our defences neutralised, meaning we will all end up speaking Russian.”
    “"And yes, I have to tell you, it's an absolutely incredible fact - and it's true - at a time when Russia is being led by a president who is capable of bullying and threats, who's plainly capable of making dangerous and irrational decisions, we have a Labour Party, a Labour Party, whose shadow cabinet is stuffed with people who only recently voted to abolish the UK's independent nuclear deterrent. That's right. Eight of them.
    "Do we want them in charge, my friends, at this moment? Do we want them running up the white flag? Do you see them standing up to Putin's blackmail?"

    Imagine this from every Tory hustings and every Tory newspaper for a whole month. What makes Labour convinced they can top 250 seats this June let only 280? Getting those seats back the Corbyn madness threw away ain’t going to be quite as easy as so many hope for, is it? A June election is simply too soon for them, and close enough to December 2019 for voters to still be listening to the Tory’s talk of sunlit uplands.

    If the May locals point to Conservatives getting working majority in June election, and it looks like 23 and 24 could be tricky for them to hold an election in, we have to consider possibility there is a General Election within the next 3 months;
    Love it. Just magnificent.
    The cynical political logic is sound, and if BoJo though he could get away with it, I'm sure he would consider it. If a few upstarts from the north have their parliamentary careers cut short... Well, serves them right for being upstarts from the north and not having gone to Eton.

    However.

    A tiny Conservative majority probably needs them to be 2-3 points ahead of Labour in the national vote. And the best guess is that, right now, they're 5 points behind, the gap has stopped closing and may be opening again. The actual results of the locals might indicate a better picture, but it's hard to see it being reliably better enough.

    Unless something else happens, HMS Cut and Run has probably sailed.

    Indeed on tonight's Opinium Labour would win most seats in a hung parliament after the boundary changes and Starmer would be PM with SNP and LD support. No way Boris calls a general election on those numbers
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    At a handshake distance. @BorisJohnson and @ZelenskyyUa walked through the center of Kyiv and talked to ordinary Kyivans. This is what democracy looks like. This is what courage looks like. This is what true friendship between peoples and between nations looks like.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1512867082932793347

    Boris Johnson has many flaws which make him unsuitable for the job of Prime Minister, but when it comes to Ukraine he has been right on the money. I'm thankful he is PM not Corbyn.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,544

    Roger said:

    At a handshake distance. @BorisJohnson and @ZelenskyyUa walked through the center of Kyiv and talked to ordinary Kyivans. This is what democracy looks like. This is what courage looks like. This is what true friendship between peoples and between nations looks like.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1512867082932793347

    If that's courage they should seek out Jeremy Bowen. He has been visiting some seriously dangerous war zones and sending back some exceptional stories.
    What's your personal 'courage'? Telling women they should be abused by the 'talent' in your industry? ;)

    Boris is PM. Going to the active warzone front is not his job (see Churchill after D-Day). His job is the politics - and this could be seen as an equivalent to Yalta or Tehran.

    Incidentally, there *may* have been a plot to kill Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt in Tehran. The interesting question is how real the plot was, and how much of it was of Stalin's creation:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Long_Jump
    Kyiv is not an active front. Boris is not that daft.
    That, if you read my post, is exactly my point. Neither were Yalta or Tehran. But it was still more dangerous than staying at No. 10 - unless Rishi were to blow...

    (from my POV, the three eastern European leaders who went to Kyiv a few weeks ago, when the Russian army were closer, appeared braver.)
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,395
    If Boris was as popular in UK as he is in Ukraine, he'd walk the next election.

    Zelinskyy's Head of Office tweets:

    https://twitter.com/AndriyYermak/status/1512816224668901382

    "Leadership is the burden you take up voluntarily when the rest are dodging. True leaders are never many. And it's great Ukraine has true friends among them. Like @BorisJohnson who's been to Kyiv today..."
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,098
    edited April 2022

    Sandpit said:

    Entertainingly off-topic but we've decided we want to open a cafe. We own (one of) the former bank(s) in the village, there's a decent catchment, the previous cafe shut 6 years ago when the owners retired and is still talked about, and we've had a neb round various other similar establishments and looks like a good idea.

    OK so I'm going to be busy (I'm about to be London-based half the week managing my soon to be former client's new UK business) but figure that as no rent is payable can afford to employ people. Have started building the business plan and the profit margins on some of these items are daft.

    Just need to tackle the council's planning people. No physical alterations to the building needed inside or out, but its listed and the planning portal suggests even a change of use needs plans to show the non-work I plan on doing...

    The plans will need to show the internal layout - number of seats, kitchen equipment including vent ducting etc - and any external signage attached to the building. You might also need to show you have places for people to park, depending on the precise location and how anal the council are about these things. The margins can seem daft, but there’s lots of wastage and the staff costs can add up. That said, with no rent it should be possible to make a decent business out of it. Good luck! :+1:
    Thanks - am going to speak to the local planning office and get an understanding from them what they need. Ducting? We're golden. Food prep will be in the former comms room and there is an existing extraction fan. Simply replace with a modern one with no holes needing to be cut. Clearly they'll need to look at parking for the change of use application.

    We're on the main road and there is on street parking and a layby across the road. We get an eclectic mix of people parking outside - from cars to HGVs to mahoosive Clarson-sized tractors. Suspect they will want to consider that as part of the change of use application, but as there was no parking when it was a bank and the new shop across the road (shop converted to house reconverted to shop) also has on street parking only.

    What I am trying to get my head around is disabled access. There is an existing ramp to the front door, but the toilets are down a wheelchair unfriendly corridor having gone up two small steps. Realistically that isn't something that can be changed. I know plenty of existing premises with wholly inaccessible toilets so I know it isn't a barrier. However, the rear fire door is also up those two steps. Was open as a bank til 2016 so was in code back then, wonder what may have changed...
    I'm just funding someone through the last parts of getting a health food cafe up and running.

    Points (from English context):

    1 - The food hygiene requirements are fearsome in terms of time to learn.
    2 - Take a careful look at use classes. Down here this was loosened up recently, in the teeth of all kind of 'activist' organisations who wanted the opportunity to stop things they did not like. Has Scotland followed?
    3 - There's lots of startup support around down here. But quite modest levels.
    4 - Important to have commercial equipment for a lot of it. eg Dishwashers need to run at 82C for hygiene otherwise it is a multi-stage hand procedure. Domestics only run at 65-70C.
    5 - Coffee machines are f*cking, f*cking expensive. Many thousands. A surprising amount of people love Galaxy Drinking Chocolate.
    6 - Don't skimp on maintenance agreements for kit.
    7 - I'd punt that you will need to budget 30-70k for investment in the cafe project by the time you get to opening time. We are at about 30-35k after some inexperience errors, but it is in our own gym so things like loos are in place and time has not been charged, and no need for Planning.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243

    Heathener said:

    With regards to the other war, the one between No 10. & No. 11, the last time it erupted into the public like this it led to Labour's loss of power.

    You're forgetting about May and Hammond when it contributed to her almost blowing the election in 2017.
    Clarkson was the best :)
    You mean Kelly?

    Kelly Clarkson - Whole Lotta Woman
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESA9kosNx-U
    No, Jeremy Clarkson, James May and RichardHammond were on BBC "Top Gear" for many years.

    BTW have you worked out where Dodos used to live? It wasn't New Zealand!
    Why are you taking my misIDing the Moa so personally?

    Anyway, take reports of extinction of Dodo with grain o' salt. As personally see piles of droppings from hordes of dodos as huge problem everywhere!
  • There will be no GE until 2024

    I'd be gobsmacked if there was. Whilst the Boris election speech posted above was entertaining, I can also hear the response from voters who are massively under the cosh as Boris's tax rise adds more pressure on top of the inflationary hell caused by Brexit / War / Famine.

    Though it would be worth it to see the people of Kent once again voting for the gridlock of their towns.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,544
    IshmaelZ said:

    Noticed today that I’ve gone past a hundred miles and a quarter of a million steps walked this week. I clearly know how to relax on holiday! The walk today was really tough; I’ve never walked so slowly. In the middle of it I went just over eight miles in six hours, but I did go over a thousand metres up and down too.

    Meh. I averaged 120 miles a week over a year. ;)

    Hope you're enjoying it, and thanks for the photos. If it's any consolation, I spent the day with the little 'un at Gulliver's Land. I think you got the better deal...
    If you feel the need to refer to your son, feel very free indeed to use the words "my son." It would crank the ickiness factor way, way down

    Thanks
    I'll let the little 'un know of your preference for the way I refer to him. In the meantime, do please and try procreating with yourself, way over there ------------------------->
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,585
    Imran Khan loses confidence vote.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243

    2% drop for conservatives but no increase in labour percentage

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1512868411197566976?t=SlCuV3Lgn2LnRZjK3SrqDQ&s=19

    Shit! I forgot to post "FOUR MONTHS since the last Tory poll lead" back on Wednesday!

    Oh, well. FOUR MONTHS and three days since the last Tory poll lead.
    You got scooped by BigGNW? The irony!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Noticed today that I’ve gone past a hundred miles and a quarter of a million steps walked this week. I clearly know how to relax on holiday! The walk today was really tough; I’ve never walked so slowly. In the middle of it I went just over eight miles in six hours, but I did go over a thousand metres up and down too.

    Meh. I averaged 120 miles a week over a year. ;)

    Hope you're enjoying it, and thanks for the photos. If it's any consolation, I spent the day with the little 'un at Gulliver's Land. I think you got the better deal...
    If you feel the need to refer to your son, feel very free indeed to use the words "my son." It would crank the ickiness factor way, way down

    Thanks
    I'll let the little 'un know of your preference for the way I refer to him. In the meantime, do please and try procreating with yourself, way over there ------------------------->
    Sorry. Perhaps you genuinely don't realise how creepy it is.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    If Boris was as popular in UK as he is in Ukraine, he'd walk the next election.

    Zelinskyy's Head of Office tweets:

    https://twitter.com/AndriyYermak/status/1512816224668901382

    "Leadership is the burden you take up voluntarily when the rest are dodging. True leaders are never many. And it's great Ukraine has true friends among them. Like @BorisJohnson who's been to Kyiv today..."

    The thing is if he had not burnt his bridges with a significant portion of the electorate which led to a significant dip last year which has persisted since, I think it pretty likely the fulsome praise he receives and good job on Ukraine would have helped him with the wider public (not just ConHome ratings).

    As it is, people are largely sticking with the previous assessment of him, and so able to disassociate the good job he is doing on this, with the rest of him being unsuitable.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,544
    Nigelb said:

    It should be noted our weapons supplies pale in comparison with the numbers donated by Russia.

    https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1512836749629792258
    Ukraine is now visually confirmed to have captured 1000 vehicles and pieces of (heavy) military equipment from Russia.

    'Captured' and 'usable' are not synonymous - particularly in the short term.

    We should not fall into the trap of assuming that all the equipment captured is immediately being turned around and used against their former owners. If it was damaged, it will need repair. If it was abandoned, it might have been because it failed due to mechanical issues. I bet less than 10% if captured equipment will be usable in combat by the Ukrainians within a week. Much will only be usable for spares. A tiny amount will be very valuable to the west.

    In addition apparently the Russians have (sensibly from their POV) started booby-trapping kit left behind.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,098
    edited April 2022
    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Entertainingly off-topic but we've decided we want to open a cafe. We own (one of) the former bank(s) in the village, there's a decent catchment, the previous cafe shut 6 years ago when the owners retired and is still talked about, and we've had a neb round various other similar establishments and looks like a good idea.

    OK so I'm going to be busy (I'm about to be London-based half the week managing my soon to be former client's new UK business) but figure that as no rent is payable can afford to employ people. Have started building the business plan and the profit margins on some of these items are daft.

    Just need to tackle the council's planning people. No physical alterations to the building needed inside or out, but its listed and the planning portal suggests even a change of use needs plans to show the non-work I plan on doing...

    The plans will need to show the internal layout - number of seats, kitchen equipment including vent ducting etc - and any external signage attached to the building. You might also need to show you have places for people to park, depending on the precise location and how anal the council are about these things. The margins can seem daft, but there’s lots of wastage and the staff costs can add up. That said, with no rent it should be possible to make a decent business out of it. Good luck! :+1:
    Thanks - am going to speak to the local planning office and get an understanding from them what they need. Ducting? We're golden. Food prep will be in the former comms room and there is an existing extraction fan. Simply replace with a modern one with no holes needing to be cut. Clearly they'll need to look at parking for the change of use application.

    We're on the main road and there is on street parking and a layby across the road. We get an eclectic mix of people parking outside - from cars to HGVs to mahoosive Clarson-sized tractors. Suspect they will want to consider that as part of the change of use application, but as there was no parking when it was a bank and the new shop across the road (shop converted to house reconverted to shop) also has on street parking only.

    What I am trying to get my head around is disabled access. There is an existing ramp to the front door, but the toilets are down a wheelchair unfriendly corridor having gone up two small steps. Realistically that isn't something that can be changed. I know plenty of existing premises with wholly inaccessible toilets so I know it isn't a barrier. However, the rear fire door is also up those two steps. Was open as a bank til 2016 so was in code back then, wonder what may have changed...
    I'm just funding someone through the last parts of getting a health food cafe up and running.

    Points (from English context):

    1 - The food hygiene requirements are fearsome in terms of time to learn. This *has* to be right as the results are on the web and a poster in your establishment.
    2 - Take a careful look at use classes. Down here this was loosened up recently, in the teeth of all kind of 'activist' organisations who wanted the opportunity to stop things they did not like. Has Scotland followed?
    3 - There's lots of startup support around down here. But quite modest levels of grant.
    4 - Important to have commercial equipment for a lot of it. eg Dishwashers need to run at 82C for hygiene otherwise it is a multi-stage hand procedure. Domestics only run at 65-70C.
    5 - Coffee machines are f*cking, f*cking expensive. Many thousands. Plus a surprising amount of people love Galaxy Drinking Chocolate.
    6 - Don't skimp on maintenance agreements for kit.
    7 - I'd punt that you will need to budget 30-70k for investment in the cafe project by the time you get to opening time. We are at about 30-35k after some inexperience errors, but it is in our own gym so things like loos are in place and time has not been charged, and no need for Planning.
    8 - Get ovens with catalytic cleaning, if you are not going for a full commercial steam oven.
    9 - Since it is listed are there grants?
    10 - Sweat your council for advice. Disabled access bod, but also the food inspection people, the conservation bod, and the Business Rates people. And talk to them early. Also consider staff requirements - eg do you need a staff lounge?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    edited April 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Omnium said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Also, what's this land-based anti-ship missile business? Or did I misunderstand? The UK doesn't have any.

    Possibly Harpoons ?
    I imagine we have some stuff that isn't announced too. Harpoon is ancient.
    Yes, we’re planning to scrap them next year - but it outranges most of the Russian ship based missiles in the Black Sea.
    And Ukraine has made effective use of equally old ex Soviet kit elsewhere.
    Ukraine will be happy for us to scrap each one of them on a Russian warship. Those "use by" dates on modern weaponry are a bitch for the Russians.

    (Russain "use by" dates are still about 80 years in the future, based on their
    tanks....)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    edited April 2022
    Oryx now has 2,702 confirmed losses of Russian kit, including 456 tanks.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Noticed today that I’ve gone past a hundred miles and a quarter of a million steps walked this week. I clearly know how to relax on holiday! The walk today was really tough; I’ve never walked so slowly. In the middle of it I went just over eight miles in six hours, but I did go over a thousand metres up and down too.

    Meh. I averaged 120 miles a week over a year. ;)

    Hope you're enjoying it, and thanks for the photos. If it's any consolation, I spent the day with the little 'un at Gulliver's Land. I think you got the better deal...
    If you feel the need to refer to your son, feel very free indeed to use the words "my son." It would crank the ickiness factor way, way down

    Thanks
    I'll let the little 'un know of your preference for the way I refer to him. In the meantime, do please and try procreating with yourself, way over there ------------------------->
    Sorry. Perhaps you genuinely don't realise how creepy it is.
    What do you think you are achieving here ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,544

    Nigelb said:

    Imran Khan loses confidence vote.

    :)

    image
    Thanks. That got a laugh from Mrs J.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Noticed today that I’ve gone past a hundred miles and a quarter of a million steps walked this week. I clearly know how to relax on holiday! The walk today was really tough; I’ve never walked so slowly. In the middle of it I went just over eight miles in six hours, but I did go over a thousand metres up and down too.

    Meh. I averaged 120 miles a week over a year. ;)

    Hope you're enjoying it, and thanks for the photos. If it's any consolation, I spent the day with the little 'un at Gulliver's Land. I think you got the better deal...
    If you feel the need to refer to your son, feel very free indeed to use the words "my son." It would crank the ickiness factor way, way down

    Thanks
    I'll let the little 'un know of your preference for the way I refer to him. In the meantime, do please and try procreating with yourself, way over there ------------------------->
    Sorry. Perhaps you genuinely don't realise how creepy it is.
    I certainly don't realise it. In fact I'm somewhat at a loss as why it would be creepy in the context offered. Perhaps you could explain it - genuine request.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Noticed today that I’ve gone past a hundred miles and a quarter of a million steps walked this week. I clearly know how to relax on holiday! The walk today was really tough; I’ve never walked so slowly. In the middle of it I went just over eight miles in six hours, but I did go over a thousand metres up and down too.

    Meh. I averaged 120 miles a week over a year. ;)

    Hope you're enjoying it, and thanks for the photos. If it's any consolation, I spent the day with the little 'un at Gulliver's Land. I think you got the better deal...
    If you feel the need to refer to your son, feel very free indeed to use the words "my son." It would crank the ickiness factor way, way down

    Thanks
    I'll let the little 'un know of your preference for the way I refer to him. In the meantime, do please and try procreating with yourself, way over there ------------------------->
    Sorry. Perhaps you genuinely don't realise how creepy it is.
    What do you think you are achieving here ?
    Nirvana
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243

    One thing I didn't know before this conflict (was it on here?) is how much of Russia was built by western architects and engineers - from Scots in Tsarist times to entire factories under Stalin before WWII.

    The city of Donetsk was founded by a Welshman.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Hughes_(businessman)
    Yet another reason for blaming Britain (if you must) for outbreak of WW1.

    On grounds that rapid industrialization of Russia pre-war was key factor in persuading many if not most German generals and politicos that Russia had to be fought and beat BEFORE it became too strong in (from 1914 vantage) very near future.

    By similar logic, Welsh bear special culpability for goading Putin to attach Ukraine, by creating something really worth fighting for (ditto Hitler strangely enough).
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    edited April 2022

    Barnesian said:

    Leon said:

    I offer this as a special gift to @Theuniondivvie

    Amazing what AI can do these days.






    This is what DALL.E mini produces
    How do you create stuff on DALLE? :curious:
    Go to
    https://huggingface.co/spaces/dalle-mini/dalle-mini

    And enter text eg Boris or political betting and you get something like this



  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,794
    On the Sunak/appeasement/economy thing:

    That's precisely what I'd want from a Chancellor if I was PM. I'd want full-fat war mongering from Defense, a big bucket of cold water from the Treasury.

    I reckon this is typical Cabinet level debate, and the headline is a bit unfair.
  • glw said:

    At a handshake distance. @BorisJohnson and @ZelenskyyUa walked through the center of Kyiv and talked to ordinary Kyivans. This is what democracy looks like. This is what courage looks like. This is what true friendship between peoples and between nations looks like.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1512867082932793347

    Boris Johnson has many flaws which make him unsuitable for the job of Prime Minister, but when it comes to Ukraine he has been right on the money. I'm thankful he is PM not Corbyn.
    Well, right on the money except for the way we have refused to allow refugees in like every other civilised nation in Europe has.

    That bit has been a disgrace.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Noticed today that I’ve gone past a hundred miles and a quarter of a million steps walked this week. I clearly know how to relax on holiday! The walk today was really tough; I’ve never walked so slowly. In the middle of it I went just over eight miles in six hours, but I did go over a thousand metres up and down too.

    Meh. I averaged 120 miles a week over a year. ;)

    Hope you're enjoying it, and thanks for the photos. If it's any consolation, I spent the day with the little 'un at Gulliver's Land. I think you got the better deal...
    If you feel the need to refer to your son, feel very free indeed to use the words "my son." It would crank the ickiness factor way, way down

    Thanks
    I'll let the little 'un know of your preference for the way I refer to him. In the meantime, do please and try procreating with yourself, way over there ------------------------->
    Sorry. Perhaps you genuinely don't realise how creepy it is.
    'Little 'un' is a term of affection for my child, although it is becoming increasingly inaccurate. I'm unsure quite how you'd make its usage to be 'creepy'.

    I might therefore suggest the issue is at your end, rather than mine.
    I believe that in Bedfordshire (home of the Bedfordshire "clanger") it was (is?) traditional to refer to the youngest male child as "the old boy".
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,544
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Entertainingly off-topic but we've decided we want to open a cafe. We own (one of) the former bank(s) in the village, there's a decent catchment, the previous cafe shut 6 years ago when the owners retired and is still talked about, and we've had a neb round various other similar establishments and looks like a good idea.

    OK so I'm going to be busy (I'm about to be London-based half the week managing my soon to be former client's new UK business) but figure that as no rent is payable can afford to employ people. Have started building the business plan and the profit margins on some of these items are daft.

    Just need to tackle the council's planning people. No physical alterations to the building needed inside or out, but its listed and the planning portal suggests even a change of use needs plans to show the non-work I plan on doing...

    The plans will need to show the internal layout - number of seats, kitchen equipment including vent ducting etc - and any external signage attached to the building. You might also need to show you have places for people to park, depending on the precise location and how anal the council are about these things. The margins can seem daft, but there’s lots of wastage and the staff costs can add up. That said, with no rent it should be possible to make a decent business out of it. Good luck! :+1:
    Thanks - am going to speak to the local planning office and get an understanding from them what they need. Ducting? We're golden. Food prep will be in the former comms room and there is an existing extraction fan. Simply replace with a modern one with no holes needing to be cut. Clearly they'll need to look at parking for the change of use application.

    We're on the main road and there is on street parking and a layby across the road. We get an eclectic mix of people parking outside - from cars to HGVs to mahoosive Clarson-sized tractors. Suspect they will want to consider that as part of the change of use application, but as there was no parking when it was a bank and the new shop across the road (shop converted to house reconverted to shop) also has on street parking only.

    What I am trying to get my head around is disabled access. There is an existing ramp to the front door, but the toilets are down a wheelchair unfriendly corridor having gone up two small steps. Realistically that isn't something that can be changed. I know plenty of existing premises with wholly inaccessible toilets so I know it isn't a barrier. However, the rear fire door is also up those two steps. Was open as a bank til 2016 so was in code back then, wonder what may have changed...
    I'm just funding someone through the last parts of getting a health food cafe up and running.

    Points (from English context):

    1 - The food hygiene requirements are fearsome in terms of time to learn. This *has* to be right as the results are on the web and a poster in your establishment.
    2 - Take a careful look at use classes. Down here this was loosened up recently, in the teeth of all kind of 'activist' organisations who wanted the opportunity to stop things they did not like. Has Scotland followed?
    3 - There's lots of startup support around down here. But quite modest levels.
    4 - Important to have commercial equipment for a lot of it. eg Dishwashers need to run at 82C for hygiene otherwise it is a multi-stage hand procedure. Domestics only run at 65-70C.
    5 - Coffee machines are f*cking, f*cking expensive. Many thousands. A surprising amount of people love Galaxy Drinking Chocolate.
    6 - Don't skimp on maintenance agreements for kit.
    7 - I'd punt that you will need to budget 30-70k for investment in the cafe project by the time you get to opening time. We are at about 30-35k after some inexperience errors, but it is in our own gym so things like loos are in place and time has not been charged, and no need for Planning.
    8 - Get ovens with catalytic cleaning, if you are not going for a full commercial steam oven.
    9 - Since it is listed are there grants?
    10 - Sweat your council for advice. Disabled access bod, but also the food inspection people, the conservation bod, and the Business Rates people. And talk to them early. Also consider staff requirements - eg to you need a staff lounge?
    This has been fascinating. If I can speak from a customer's POV: cleanliness and tidiness from the outside matters to many, if you want to attract passing trade, as opposed to regulars. Have tables cleared and wiped regularly, and windows spotless. Clean but also uncluttered. I bet it's easy to let these standards drop.

    My mum is somewhat a connoisseur of cafes. She has a number of basic rules including the above, and she's generally right. If you can't be bothered keeping the tables clean, you won't bother with the food.

    Then again, I'm quite fond of a good greasy spoon. ;)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Noticed today that I’ve gone past a hundred miles and a quarter of a million steps walked this week. I clearly know how to relax on holiday! The walk today was really tough; I’ve never walked so slowly. In the middle of it I went just over eight miles in six hours, but I did go over a thousand metres up and down too.

    Meh. I averaged 120 miles a week over a year. ;)

    Hope you're enjoying it, and thanks for the photos. If it's any consolation, I spent the day with the little 'un at Gulliver's Land. I think you got the better deal...
    If you feel the need to refer to your son, feel very free indeed to use the words "my son." It would crank the ickiness factor way, way down

    Thanks
    I'll let the little 'un know of your preference for the way I refer to him. In the meantime, do please and try procreating with yourself, way over there ------------------------->
    Sorry. Perhaps you genuinely don't realise how creepy it is.
    'Little 'un' is a term of affection for my child, although it is becoming increasingly inaccurate. I'm unsure quite how you'd make its usage to be 'creepy'.

    I might therefore suggest the issue is at your end, rather than mine.
    Wa-hey! "End" - that sounds incredibly rude!
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,410
    Nigelb said:

    There is no compromise with this kind of thinking.
    https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1512818345489408006
    Medvedev: "A 'completely fake' nation and 'a copy of the Third Reich' that doesn’t deserve to exist."

    Solovyov: “Zelensky is Ukraine’s last president because there won’t be any Ukraine after that.”

    Can we give them everything? The army needed upgrading anyway and the Germans managed with broomsticks.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,585

    Nigelb said:

    It should be noted our weapons supplies pale in comparison with the numbers donated by Russia.

    https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1512836749629792258
    Ukraine is now visually confirmed to have captured 1000 vehicles and pieces of (heavy) military equipment from Russia.

    'Captured' and 'usable' are not synonymous - particularly in the short term.

    We should not fall into the trap of assuming that all the equipment captured is immediately being turned around and used against their former owners. If it was damaged, it will need repair. If it was abandoned, it might have been because it failed due to mechanical issues. I bet less than 10% if captured equipment will be usable in combat by the Ukrainians within a week. Much will only be usable for spares. A tiny amount will be very valuable to the west.

    In addition apparently the Russians have (sensibly from their POV) started booby-trapping kit left behind.
    I’m aware - the comment was tongue in cheek - though given the obvious circumstances of a large number of captures (abandonment), I’d bet that number is quite a bit higher than 10%.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,544

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Noticed today that I’ve gone past a hundred miles and a quarter of a million steps walked this week. I clearly know how to relax on holiday! The walk today was really tough; I’ve never walked so slowly. In the middle of it I went just over eight miles in six hours, but I did go over a thousand metres up and down too.

    Meh. I averaged 120 miles a week over a year. ;)

    Hope you're enjoying it, and thanks for the photos. If it's any consolation, I spent the day with the little 'un at Gulliver's Land. I think you got the better deal...
    If you feel the need to refer to your son, feel very free indeed to use the words "my son." It would crank the ickiness factor way, way down

    Thanks
    I'll let the little 'un know of your preference for the way I refer to him. In the meantime, do please and try procreating with yourself, way over there ------------------------->
    Sorry. Perhaps you genuinely don't realise how creepy it is.
    'Little 'un' is a term of affection for my child, although it is becoming increasingly inaccurate. I'm unsure quite how you'd make its usage to be 'creepy'.

    I might therefore suggest the issue is at your end, rather than mine.
    Wa-hey! "End" - that sounds incredibly rude!
    Well, as I've a 'little 'un', my 'end' has obviously had 'issue'. ;)
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