Measures more than sanctions are going to be needed to stop Putin – politicalbetting.com
Measures more than sanctions are going to be needed to stop Putin – politicalbetting.com
The sheer awfulness of what has been going on in Ukraine over the past few days suggests, surely, that measures beyond the existing sanctions and sending military aid are going to be needed to stop Putin.
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I think there is no point continuing to argue with you.
We came damn close to doing so in the former Yugoslavia.
Thanks to Ed Miliband we wimped out in Syria and allowed the use of chemical weapons.
I suppose we can do it again but it is going to be hard to live with.
Partly by deliberate design, and partly from lack of effective command & control. Paradox like the CoE?
No gaffe calling Vladimir Putin a war criminal, along with his willing henchpeople.
Instead, warning and indictment.
Which one would think would be distressing to the hundreds to thousands of Russian families who have lost family members attacking those places. I think we can all read between the lines with this wellworn approach, but it never ceases to surprise to see it reworked as some noble and compassionate concern.
Keep supporting Ukraine for the length of time they have the will to fight.
Crack down on Russia. And their apologists.
Try to increase the West's supply of energy. And, crucially, reduce our demand also.
Avoid taking Putin's talking points seriously. And resist the very real temptation to use them as domestic wedge issues.
There's not much more we can sensibly do. The government is doing some of them well. Others not so.
Everything I have read from analysts says that actually the Kremlin have been taken aback as to the level of sanctions.
Don't forget in Putin's head the west is declining due to decadence and hedonism and lack of faith in the orthodox god. So he would have been surprised when we actually got our shit together.
The world is not ours to fix, which is probably just as well.
So far the Ukrainians have defended well, at least after the initial assault, and have conducted some behind the lines ambushes, and around Kive have also kept some anti air systems in place.
However, they have not been able to lunch a significant assault. a few small assaults yes but nothing big, even as the Russian have been retreating they have not been able to cut of and surround, any significant Russian forces, even when the Russians in the area where better, and retreating. they have some air defence capability but it is mostly keeping the worst of the Capital, if they more the S300 systems to the south then Russia can and sill bomb/missiles at the capital. equally Ukraine now has a long boarder in the north, that they presumably have to defend, in case the Russians come back, this will tie down a lot of the Ukrainian army. but Russia can if it wonts move all its forces to the east or south, confidant that Ukraine will not advance on Moscow. lastly a lot of Russians weaknesses where biggest when attacking and advancing, pore communications, pore low level leadership, inflexible planning, bad logistics. however if the Russians are going to mostly dig in and just shell the Ukrainians, possibly with a few small rides/advance, then these weaknesses don't matter so much.
I hope I'm wrong and hope somebody can explain why I am wrong, but I think that the Russians may be able to hold on in the south & east for a long time. a lot of weapons, Tanks APCs, artillery and missiles, anti air and ground to ground, but they need proper quantity's and quickly. short of that, and I fear Putin will win, pleas tell me I'm wrong.
And in how many decades?
@Leon is busy staring at a 12,000 year old statue of a man's penis this evening.
Out of the surplus accumulated by PB Fund for Hapless Punters and Indigent (and Indignant) Psephologists.
Not easy viewing.
I think we are going to have to send Ukraine the sort of weapons it needs to push the Russians out of the country ie not simply defensive weapons.
How that can be done and what the risks are I do not pretend to know.
I do think it's not tenable to continue to buy anything from Russia. This will cause some difficulty, but temporary gas and diesel rationing is not much to endure compared to Ukraine's suffering.
Part of me dearly wants to see NATO (or even just the British and the Poles) ride to the rescue, and bring this to as rapid an end as possible. Hopefully the Ukrainians will do it themselves and we will provide all the equipment they need.
again, hope im wrong and miss reading this.
I say turn the handle.
I think it's very notable that the Russians decided they weren't able to do that. I take that as a Russian admission of the capability of the Ukrainian armed forces.
The fight in the Donbas will be hard, but I have hope for a Ukrainian victory.
I would also like to say a few words to those politicians, some deputies of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine who absolutely do not understand what is happening in the hearts of our people. They don't understand it so much that they even decided to change the national anthem. I have a question for these people: what have you done in your life to give you the moral right to change the words of the anthem? Are you outstanding poets? Maybe you excelled in the battles for Ukraine? Or now is such a time that you can change the anthem whenever you want?
Cool down emotions. Stop pretending to be fools. I believe that the authors of these and other similar bills, proposals, should take up arms and go to the battlefield, if you have these opportunities. Only there will you understand something.
And even if they accidentally vote for something like this, I still will not sign such bills. Don't waste time.
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/robit-use-sho-mozhete-shob-mi-razom-vistoyali-v-cij-vijni-za-74041
but, in the north, particular the north east, there where lots of places surrounded but not captured by the Russians, the biggest being being the city of Sumi the Russians found they did not have the manpower to capture these and instead had lots of ambushes and big supply problems and no way of solving them, so there position was binging untenable. this is not really the case in the south and east. apart from Mariupol there are few pockets of Ukraine resistance, where ambush teams can be based. and so on.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
Take every worst case scenario on each parameter though.
When you've shouted "Rule Britannia,"
When you've sung "God save the Queen,"
When you've finished killing Kruger with your mouth,
Will you kindly drop a shilling in my little tambourine
For a gentleman in khaki ordered South?
Our latest report from Hostomel and Bucha, towns NW of Kyiv, after the Russians left. Shot and edited by @leedurant prod @producerkathy
https://twitter.com/BowenBBC/status/1510525340078252033
that does not raise questions about what they intended to do once they took ukrainian territory. it answers them.
https://twitter.com/theophite/status/1510420264302964736
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1510207703037235208
Russia announces it is scaling back offensive on Kyiv and Chernihiv on March 29th.
I think those two events are connected.
Rather, because it was written during & immediately after the bombardment of Baltimore in 1814.
It was there, born from the fires of war. That it's bad music and indifferent poesy, not very important.
.👍🏻.
BTW, thank you, williamglenn, for Ukrainian info & insights, most cogent & timely putting it VERY mildly.
April 3 (Reuters) - Satellite images show a 45-foot-longtrench dug into the grounds of a Ukrainian church where a mass grave was found this week after Russian forces withdrew from the town of Bucha, a private U.S. company said on Sunday.
Reuters journalists who visited Bucha on Saturday saw bodies lying on the streets of the town, 37 km (23 miles) northwest of the capital Kyiv. A mass grave at one church was still open, with hands and feet poking through the red clay heaped on top.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/satellite-images-show-45-foot-long-trench-grave-site-bucha-maxar-2022-04-03/?
A lot of armies do break international humanitarian law, and often commit war crimes. But sometimes its maybe a rogue unit, or individuals. In other cases, it's systemic. And looking at the pattern of behaviour I'd say, with the Russians, it is systemic. It comes from the top.
https://twitter.com/politicalplayer/status/1510336111003910146
The kettle for the the operators to make their tea.
We knew things were about to get weird because the musical director had just treated us to the strains of a Radiohead side-project.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/tv/0/peaky-blinders-finale-review-dreary-slog-boom-twist-saved/
As to ellipses, I couldn’t get more than a chapter into John Reed’s Ten Days That Shook the World as he used them where everyone else would use full stops.
"In World War II Germany built 1,162 U-boats, of which 785 were destroyed"
https://booksandbao.com/drink-korean-alcohol-etiquette-korea/
I liked the slower pace to series 6, interesting characters orbiting a main focal point like comets in and out a suns influence. It’s been a rewarding journey these ten years. Has it really been that long? 😯
Please do so to avoid the BH.
https://twitter.com/Junheng_Li/status/1510717695871766528?s=20&t=ijJSH9Hv_uwnw-nzBFvqFA
Twenty-five miles plus in all directions of nothing but more & more fresh-water marsh. Also lots of bugs & gators.
Stray far, and you'll be lucky if some hunters find you . . . eventually . . .
- Reduce dependence on fossil fuels: Windmills and transmission lines everywhere, you'll get used to the view. Roll back environmental review and local planning control to make this happen. Keep old nuclear power stations running, they probably won't blow up and if they do it probably won't kill you. Raise taxes and energy prices to pay for subsidies, it'll cost a lot but suck it up. Make WFH permanent where possible and cut back on travel, we know how to do that after covid.
- Mend relations with China. Without the Chinese sanctions can only do so much. They haven't invaded Taiwan so far and Hong Kong and Xinjiang are domestic issues that realistically the west doesn't have much leverage over. Hold your nose and cut a deal.
- Give visas to educated Russians. Russians are unpopular right now but the more people leave the less resources Russia has. Drain the brains.
@oryxspioenkop
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My backlog of destroyed and captured Russian equipment also has three backlogs of itself.