Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Crisis, what crisis? – politicalbetting.com

1234568

Comments

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    kjh said:

    I do love your predictions, particularly the long odds ones. Point 1 seems very logical. Not so sure about 2 but that might be my bias of not wanting it.
    Cheers @kjh. Let's see. I should have also said when I suggest bets, I don't do trading ones, I put the money straight on what I think. Keeps me honest :)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    You're expending an awful lot of energy attacking something that 'nobody cares' about.
    Ah, the Hound of Heaven card. Playable until about Chesterton's day. Long time ago.

    May God's love be with you.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    moonshine said:

    Perhaps. But I wouldn’t rule out the nice men from Langley dropping in with some briefcases full of incentives.
    maybe :)

    For what its worth, I understand there quite a few Belarussians fighting alongside the Ukrainians at the moment.

    Some where there already fighting in the Dombras, but since this all kicked off, many from the dissident/exile/diaspora have come back to fight, and others have deserted from the army in Belorussia. the biggest unit is abbot 300 strong, and there are others fighting in separate units. perhaps with the fighting experience they have they could return? if Lukashenko is as unpopular as thought might any unit sent to fight the dissidents defect?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Am personally allergic to thinking that 45 is down, let alone out, until we have more, and more solid, evidence. Such as the 2022 primaries, special elections & elections may provide. Though reckon that will be a mixed picture.

    Also not all that sure if DeSantis has staying power past 2022. Certainly he has to beat Charlie Criss for Gov, and more than by a small margin, to reaffirm his continued "availablity" as they used to say look ahead to 2024.
    I think that DeSantis will beat Crist by quite a healthy margin. Florida has had an influx of people from other states and, anecdotally, they don't like the Democrats. Plus the Hispanic vote has probably moved more in the GOP's way.

    Trump has staying power and he is still formidable but I think he screwed up with Russia big time here, and the longer it goes on, the more his stance will be criticised. Plus, if Biden doesn't run in 2024 (which I don't think he will), that takes away another motivating factor for Trump.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,082

    Am personally allergic to thinking that 45 is down, let alone out, until we have more, and more solid, evidence. Such as the 2022 primaries, special elections & elections may provide. Though reckon that will be a mixed picture.

    Also not all that sure if DeSantis has staying power past 2022. Certainly he has to beat Charlie Criss for Gov, and more than by a small margin, to reaffirm his continued "availablity" as they used to say look ahead to 2024.
    On Le Pen, do we have any polling data on what the structure of the extra votes she appears to have picked up might be? Where is she making gains?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MattW said:

    Just as clueless :smiley:
    Pray for me. Also, reflect on how using that smiley thing makes you look. Hallelujah.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-would-like-more-us-troops-europe-says-ruling-party-boss-2022-04-03/

    "Kaczynski also said that Poland would be "open" to having nuclear weapons stationed in the country but that this was not something currently under consideration."

    Read that first as "Krzyzewski"

    As in long-time Duke University men's basket ball coach Mike Krzyzewski, who's team played his final as coach in NCAA tournament last night, his 13th appearance in Final Four.

    Duke Bluedevils lost to the Tarheels of University North Carolina, a HUGE rivalry down on Tobacco Road in one of America's top basketball-crazy states (others being Indiana & Kentucky). Indeed, Duke & UNC campuses are only 8 miles apart (Chapel Hill & Durham)

    Though as noted by Marty & McGee yesterday on ESPN Radio/SEC Network TV, the REAL basketball semi-civil war in North Carolina, is between UNC and North Carolina State (Raleigh) which is just down the road also.

    Native North Carolinians have less attachment to Duke versus UNC, NC State & etc, because not many attend Duke. Though Marty Smith's grandfather was a fan, because he was a Methodist and Duke is also, officially anyway.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Foxy said:

    I have backed Le Pen quite heavily. Not least because it may well work as a trading bet when it comes to the second round as the odds will likely shorten.

    I agree Trump is toast. Even the Republicans areng that stupid, but maybe lay him rather than back Desantis, as someone else may emerge. Primaries do that some cycles.
    Re laying Trump, agreed it may be the better bet but I think DeSantis has really established a march on his rivals and being Governor of Florida has given him a platform to do something about the GOP's bete noires. In the GOP media (which I get won't be your forte), he is attracting a lot of praise and certainly more than his possible non-Trump rivals.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Only 4, I think - the obvious suspects, none of whom receive our aid. The abstentions were more significant, notably China and India.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/un-russia-vote-full-voting-breakdown-north-korea-syria-back-putin-ukraine-invasion-1494907?msclkid=fa6c240eb38e11ec8c0e804f3e7554a0
    yes, that was my mistake, I corrected it down thread, but for what is worth sorry.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Scott_xP said:

    💥 🍷 NEW: The Government’s former head of propriety and ethics has been fined over a “raucous” karaoke party in the Cabinet Office at which there was a drunken brawl.

    FPNs also issued over the No10 party in April 2021.

    (w @evansma & @benrileysmith)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/04/03/governments-former-ethics-chief-helen-macnamara-fined-raucous/

    Sounds like something girls & boys at The Onion would dream up, on a good day.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861
    Foxy said:

    So do you think the USA Christians defer to the Pope?

    It is bonkers to say Republicanism in the British sense puts the pope in charge.
    The largest Christian church in the USA is the Roman Catholic church. President Biden is himself a Roman Catholic who visited the Pope last year and regularly attends Mass.

    The largest Protestant churches, the Baptist Church and the Pentecostal churches are evangelical and influence politics in a socially conservative direction, especially the GOP.

    The non established Anglican Episcopalian church is just a small liberal minority church, mainly based on the coasts
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861
    edited April 2022
    Foxy said:

    So do you think the USA Christians defer to the Pope?

    It is bonkers to say Republicanism in the British sense puts the pope in charge.
    The largest Christian church in the USA is the Roman Catholic church. President Biden is himself a Roman Catholic who visited and paid homage to the Pope last year at the Vatican and regularly attends Mass.

    The largest Protestant churches, the Baptist Churches and the Pentecostal churches are evangelical and influence politics in a socially conservative direction, especially the GOP.

    The non established Anglican Episcopalian church is just a small liberal minority church, mainly based on the coasts
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,905

    For those of us in need of a bit of cheering up, I give you "The Greatest Shot in Television":

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WoDQBhJCVQ

    That is pretty cool.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413

    File under 'you couldn't make it up'.

    NEW: The Government’s former head of propriety and ethics has been fined over a “raucous” karaoke party in the Cabinet Office at which there was a drunken brawl.

    https://twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1510718992180256771

    If anything it is a little bit too expected.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,341
    edited April 2022
    For a homeless penniless bankrupt, he doesn't appear to be suffering from the cost of living crisis.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10681899/Tommy-Robinson-held-police-Manchester-airport-thrown-Mexico.html
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,820
    moonshine said:

    Perhaps. But I wouldn’t rule out the nice men from Langley dropping in with some briefcases full of incentives.
    I’ve long had a feeling Belarus could be an important key to the defeat of Putin. A military mutiny or coup, supported on the streets, and suddenly it all comes crashing down. The WW2 analogue would be Italy ditching Mussolini and switching sides.

    A democratic Belarus on the path to EU accession would be nice to see.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    How many PBers are shocked to learn, that Santa Claus is a Democratic Socialist?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,341
    edited April 2022
    Just getting embarrassing.

    President says first lady Jill Biden was Obama's vice president
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10681745/President-says-lady-Jill-Biden-VP-latest-gaffe.html
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,708
    Completely off topic: I’ve just discovered that ABBA recorded many of their songs in Spanish and they work really well. It’s like hearing them for the first time.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,408
    TRT World
    @trtworld
    Serbia’s President Vucic walks out of a fridge on TV ahead of the April 3 presidential elections in the country.


    https://twitter.com/trtworld/status/1509719701504598019
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413
    edited April 2022

    TRT World
    @trtworld
    Serbia’s President Vucic walks out of a fridge on TV ahead of the April 3 presidential elections in the country.


    https://twitter.com/trtworld/status/1509719701504598019

    Impact on his election or not, it's important for political leaders to fire whichever 20 year old spad suggests such silly stunts. Best case scenario no one cares, but it's still never as funny as the planners think. See crashing through foam bricks etc.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303

    That is pretty cool.
    I remember watching "Connections" when it first came out and being amazed by it: I'm not sure that it has had an equal (possibly "Cosmos" or "Life on Earth"?)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,515
    IshmaelZ said:

    Pray for me. Also, reflect on how using that smiley thing makes you look. Hallelujah.
    You seem to be wobbling atop of a leaning tower of assumptions.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,243
    HYUFD said:

    In the constitutional monarchies of Norway or Denmark the Lutheran church is the established church, in part also to still stop the Roman Catholic Church becoming again the main church in the nation. Even if the Lutheran church as an evangelical church does not believe in having a top down head so much. In the constitutional monarchy of Spain for example where there is no established church the Roman Catholic church is still by far the largest church, so the default head of the established church is the Pope
    Nope. The Church of Norway was disestablished in 2012. It is no more part of the State than any other religion now.

    And in Denmark the Head of State is not the Head of the Church. The legal responsibility for the Church falls ona specific Government minister.

    So you are wrong in both those cases. Indeed as I said, none of the other European constitutional monarchies has the Head of State as the head of religion. All the others are disestablished.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,341
    edited April 2022

    TRT World
    @trtworld
    Serbia’s President Vucic walks out of a fridge on TV ahead of the April 3 presidential elections in the country.


    https://twitter.com/trtworld/status/1509719701504598019

    Vucic, a former ultranationalist who has boasted of his close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin....

    Christ, just looking at their vaccination rates, only a matter of time....
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,905

    TRT World
    @trtworld
    Serbia’s President Vucic walks out of a fridge on TV ahead of the April 3 presidential elections in the country.


    https://twitter.com/trtworld/status/1509719701504598019

    A reverse-Boris?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Alaska At-Large US House Special Election Primary June 11, 2022

    Official final candidate list, including . . .

    https://www.elections.alaska.gov/Core/candidatelistspecprim.php

    CLAUS, SANTA (UNDECLARED) (CERTIFIED)
    PO BOX 55122
    NORTH POLE, AK 99705
    (907) 388-3836
    Email: CAMPAIGN-SANTACLAUSFORALASKA@USA.NET
    Web Site: HTTPS://WWW.SANTACLAUSFORALASKA.COM

    PALIN, SARAH (REGISTERED REPUBLICAN) (CERTIFIED)
    PO BOX 871235
    WASILLA, AK 99687
    (907) 631-0490
    Email: INFO@SARAHFORALASKA.COM
    Web Site: HTTPS://WWW.SARAHFORALASKA.COM
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,113
    BigRich said:

    maybe :)

    For what its worth, I understand there quite a few Belarussians fighting alongside the Ukrainians at the moment.

    Some where there already fighting in the Dombras, but since this all kicked off, many from the dissident/exile/diaspora have come back to fight, and others have deserted from the army in Belorussia. the biggest unit is abbot 300 strong, and there are others fighting in separate units. perhaps with the fighting experience they have they could return? if Lukashenko is as unpopular as thought might any unit sent to fight the dissidents defect?
    There is some partisan activity in Belarus already, albeit small scale.

    ❗️Rail War: Belarusian partisans have committed at least 10 successful sabotages on the railway since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.

    This infographic shows the main events of the rail war over the past month.
    1/3 https://t.co/1Lfzjy5ScT
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MattW said:

    You seem to be wobbling atop of a leaning tower of assumptions.
    Praise the Lord.
  • PaulDPaulD Posts: 51
    JACK_W said:

    Anything that would "satisfy" Putin is by definition a line too far. Putin must lose and be seen to lose. Putin and his coterie of murderous war criminals are not fit to breathe the air in the company of decent people.

    Frankly he should be strung up by his bollocks in any town square in Ukraine although I would settle for a life term sentence after a war crimes trial in the Hague, but it's a close call.

    Sadly the west can't afford to just let Putin lose...that will be too dangerous...he needs a small win he can sell whilst we in the west plan our next move
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,408
    MrEd said:

    Re laying Trump, agreed it may be the better bet but I think DeSantis has really established a march on his rivals and being Governor of Florida has given him a platform to do something about the GOP's bete noires. In the GOP media (which I get won't be your forte), he is attracting a lot of praise and certainly more than his possible non-Trump rivals.
    Ny Times certainly worried about DeSantis. He is the one to watch as he is Trump but focussed and organized.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    kle4 said:

    Impact on his election or not, it's important for political leaders to fire whichever 20 year old spad suggests such silly stunts. Best case scenario no one cares, but it's still never as funny as the planners think. See crashing through foam bricks etc.
    Worked years ago with a Boston "wise guy" consultant (true in more ways than one his case) who was in the entourage back in 1988 or thereabouts, on the very day when Mike Dukakis toured a tank factory, and was infamously filmed by his own crew driving a tank.

    Which became the centerpiece for the 2nd-most effective Bush the Elder campaign commercial, the comic relief as it were to #1, the Willy Horton ad.

    I asked my friend, what happened? He said (I paraphrase slightly) "I told them not to do it because it made the Governor look like a fucking idiot. But they went ahead and did it anyway."
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,905

    Alaska At-Large US House Special Election Primary June 11, 2022

    Official final candidate list, including . . .

    https://www.elections.alaska.gov/Core/candidatelistspecprim.php

    CLAUS, SANTA (UNDECLARED) (CERTIFIED)
    PO BOX 55122
    NORTH POLE, AK 99705
    (907) 388-3836
    Email: CAMPAIGN-SANTACLAUSFORALASKA@USA.NET
    Web Site: HTTPS://WWW.SANTACLAUSFORALASKA.COM

    PALIN, SARAH (REGISTERED REPUBLICAN) (CERTIFIED)
    PO BOX 871235
    WASILLA, AK 99687
    (907) 631-0490
    Email: INFO@SARAHFORALASKA.COM
    Web Site: HTTPS://WWW.SARAHFORALASKA.COM

    Santa Claus would be excellent at canvassing, he could go round all the houses on the night before the election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861
    edited April 2022

    Nope. The Church of Norway was disestablished in 2012. It is no more part of the State than any other religion now.

    And in Denmark the Head of State is not the Head of the Church. The legal responsibility for the Church falls ona specific Government minister.

    So you are wrong in both those cases. Indeed as I said, none of the other European constitutional monarchies has the Head of State as the head of religion. All the others are disestablished.
    Article 16 of the Norwegian constitution makes clear the Church of Norway is 'the established Church' and that the state must support it. Article 4 also requires the Norwegian monarch to be a member of the Church of Norway.

    Section 4 of the Constitution of Denmark also confirms the Church of the Denmark as the established church. The only reason the monarch is not the head of them is the Lutheran Church is an evangelical church not a Catholic church like the Church of England.
    However in both nations it remains the established church under the constitution.

    Thus in Norway 67% are Lutheran and only 3% Roman Catholic and in Denmark 74% are Lutheran and just 1.3% Roman Catholic. Whereas in virtually every other European nation, even the formerly Protestant majority Netherlands and Germany where there is no established church, either the Roman Catholic Church or the Orthodox Church is the largest church apart from the UK (mainly because of the Church of England)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Norway#:~:text=Religion in Norway is dominated,by 3.4% of the population.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christianity_in_Denmark

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_the_Netherlands
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Germany
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    PaulD said:

    Sadly the west can't afford to just let Putin lose win...that will be too dangerous...he needs a small win he can sell whilst we in the west plan our next move
    Fixed it for you.

    And don't use ellipsis to break up your statements.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,242
    PaulD said:

    Rigid thinking is not good kinabalu...you may even learn something from Hitchens
    That the Ukrainians really are the baddies, and we should be supporting Russia instead?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,113
    HYUFD said:

    The largest Christian church in the USA is the Roman Catholic church. President Biden is himself a Roman Catholic who visited and paid homage to the Pope last year at the Vatican and regularly attends Mass.

    The largest Protestant churches, the Baptist Churches and the Pentecostal churches are evangelical and influence politics in a socially conservative direction, especially the GOP.

    The non established Anglican Episcopalian church is just a small liberal minority church, mainly based on the coasts
    This is one of your most bizarre assertions, that Republicanism means the return of the Pope. No way will British Protestants accept that.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,082

    Worked years ago with a Boston "wise guy" consultant (true in more ways than one his case) who was in the entourage back in 1988 or thereabouts, on the very day when Mike Dukakis toured a tank factory, and was infamously filmed by his own crew driving a tank.

    Which became the centerpiece for the 2nd-most effective Bush the Elder campaign commercial, the comic relief as it were to #1, the Willy Horton ad.

    I asked my friend, what happened? He said (I paraphrase slightly) "I told them not to do it because it made the Governor look like a fucking idiot. But they went ahead and did it anyway."
    Another awesome photo op, where someone needed firing

    image
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Santa Claus would be excellent at canvassing, he could go round all the houses on the night before the election.
    Plus MUCH less danger of fires actually being lite in Alaska chimneys in June as compared with December
  • PaulDPaulD Posts: 51
    rcs1000 said:

    That the Ukrainians really are the baddies, and we should be supporting Russia instead?
    As the moderator of this site and a former goldman sachs employee you are way too intelligent to believe what you just said
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Alaska At-Large US House Special Election Primary June 11, 2022

    Official final candidate list, including . . .

    https://www.elections.alaska.gov/Core/candidatelistspecprim.php

    CLAUS, SANTA (UNDECLARED) (CERTIFIED)
    PO BOX 55122
    NORTH POLE, AK 99705
    (907) 388-3836
    Email: CAMPAIGN-SANTACLAUSFORALASKA@USA.NET
    Web Site: HTTPS://WWW.SANTACLAUSFORALASKA.COM

    PALIN, SARAH (REGISTERED REPUBLICAN) (CERTIFIED)
    PO BOX 871235
    WASILLA, AK 99687
    (907) 631-0490
    Email: INFO@SARAHFORALASKA.COM
    Web Site: HTTPS://WWW.SARAHFORALASKA.COM

    is there a market in who gets though to the second round? if so it might be worth putting a few bob on Santa cause, Palin and the inevitably not Palin will sock up most of the vote, the rest will be split 49 ways, so getting a % or 2 might be enough and who wouldn't vote for Santa.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,082
    Foxy said:

    There is some partisan activity in Belarus already, albeit small scale.

    ❗️Rail War: Belarusian partisans have committed at least 10 successful sabotages on the railway since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.

    This infographic shows the main events of the rail war over the past month.
    1/3 https://t.co/1Lfzjy5ScT
    Hmmm.... Has the UK deployed the unthinkable? Have they sent in.....

    {drum roll}

    South West Trains?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Foxy said:

    There is some partisan activity in Belarus already, albeit small scale.

    ❗️Rail War: Belarusian partisans have committed at least 10 successful sabotages on the railway since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.

    This infographic shows the main events of the rail war over the past month.
    1/3 https://t.co/1Lfzjy5ScT
    Yes, I noticed that, very brave, but probably quite helpful to the Ukrainian war effort.
  • PaulDPaulD Posts: 51

    Fixed it for you.

    And don't use ellipsis to break up your statements.
    Please debate intelligently...thankyou
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,113

    Santa Claus would be excellent at canvassing, he could go round all the houses on the night before the election.
    Particularly iffy on electoral bribery though.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,266

    Hmmm.... Has the UK deployed the unthinkable? Have they sent in.....

    {drum roll}

    South West Trains?
    Surely not allowed under the Geneva Convention?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861
    Foxy said:

    This is one of your most bizarre assertions, that Republicanism means the return of the Pope. No way will British Protestants accept that.

    Evangelicals may not but many of them are Baptists and Pentecostals not Church of England. Most Anglo Catholics in the Church of England would probably even convert back to Rome after disestablishment and soon the Roman Catholic Church would again be the largest church in England for the first time since the Reformation. The Church of England would be a small mainly liberal church
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    PaulD said:

    Please debate intelligently...thankyou
    OK

    Putin HAS to lose and to be seen to lose, otherwise anytime he wants something he will take it. We cannot trust any promise he gives as we know he will break it, so any cease-fire will be treated as the start line for the next invasion.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,242
    MrEd said:

    Getting away from the Russian trolls on here, two betting tips out of the crisis:

    1. GOP POTUS nomination 2024: Sell Trump, buy DeSantis - my personal view is that what has happened in the Ukraine is going to be the thing that turns the GOP base against Trump. Not hugely so but enough to let other contenders feel this is not a suicide mission and to make their move. Plus Trump is vulnerable given his comments about the war, especially the "Putin is a genius" line. As for DeSantis, he has managed to pick himself another culture war fight with Disney that is winning him kudos amongst the GOP base.

    2. French Presidential election - sell Macron, buy Le Pen. There has been a lot of talk on here that the French would never vote for the "fascist" Le Pen. However, the world has changed and electorates are likely to shift to politicians who display some backbone. Macron is not that person. I don't think it's a coincidence that his poll ratings have slipped in tandem with his increasingly desperate calls to Putin. He looks like a weakling and someone who is ignored, and the French like to think their Presidents have some inner strength.

    I agree with the first, and tactically agree with the second.

    But... I think Le Pen faces a very uphill battle in the second round of the French Presidential election. Macrons favorables are at a three and a half year high (https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/), and while -10 sounds bad... It's still 14 points better than Le Pen. I think her best chance comes from Macron complacency, and her poll surge makes that less likely. While she's a tradng buy into the first round, I suspect Macron ends up winning relatively comfortably in the second.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,408
    Terrible editorial values from Sun tonight. Leading on front page on some MP or other who may have or may not taken cocaine.



    Rest of papers lead on war crimes in Bucha.

  • PaulDPaulD Posts: 51

    OK

    Putin HAS to lose and to be seen to lose, otherwise anytime he wants something he will take it. We cannot trust any promise he gives as we know he will break it, so any cease-fire will be treated as the start line for the next invasion.
    I agree. He has to lose. But he needs something to sell to his own people or Russia won't stop fighting and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will lose their lives. Try explaining your stance to a Ukrainian mother who loses her son in the months of war of grinding attrition. Please try
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,242
    edited April 2022
    PaulD said:

    I agree. He has to lose. But he needs something to sell to his own people or Russia won't stop fighting and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will lose their lives. Try explaining your stance to a Ukrainian mother who loses her son in the months of war of grinding attrition. Please try
    Any chance you can explain why your IP shows in a bunch of different blacklists?


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,650

    On the second point I very much agree with you tactically. By which I mean that it is going to look quite close and the markets often favour the more right wing candidate. Though I think on the day Macron may do a bit better than expected. So I have backed Le Pen hugely with rhe hope to trade out between R1 and R2.
    That's my MO too on the French. And on USA as all know I'm supershort Trump. So, good grief, I'm with Mr Ed.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,082

    Surely not allowed under the Geneva Convention?
    Time to play to win.

    Next drop a Piers Corbyn on maximum yield setting.

    Then use Starlink to jam every transmission in Russia with continuous Radiohead playback...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,708
    A pretty strong condemnation of France and Germany from Zelensky:

    @mrsorokaa
    ⚡️ “I invite Merkel and Sarkozy to visit Bucha and to see the outcome of 14 years of concessions to Russia,” Zelensky said in his video address.

    “You will see with your own eyes the tortured Ukrainians.”


    https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1510691944938283009
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,905
    PaulD said:

    I agree. He has to lose. But he needs something to sell to his own people or Russia won't stop fighting and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will lose their lives. Try explaining your stance to a Ukrainian mother who loses her son in the months of war of grinding attrition. Please try
    He can make up whatever shite as a win he wants on state TV, which would be absolutely no different to what he's already been doing. So the argument that he needs something to sell to his own people makes no real sense.
  • PaulDPaulD Posts: 51
    rcs1000 said:

    Any chance you can explain why your IP shows in a bunch of different blacklists?
    Well I've no idea why that is can you explain further please what are these blacklists
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,477
    HYUFD said:

    Evangelicals may not but many of them are Baptists and Pentecostals not Church of England. Most Anglo Catholics in the Church of England would probably even convert back to Rome after disestablishment and soon the Roman Catholic Church would again be the largest church in England for the first time since the Reformation. The Church of England would be a small mainly liberal church
    What I don't understand is why any of this matters. Don't you all just belong to the church you want to belong to? You aren't competing are you? Or are you? I'm genuinely confused.

    I have no objection to religion or different churches, but I would like to be left out of it. While one sect is established it does have an impact, albeit minor.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,082
    PaulD said:

    Well I've no idea why that is can you explain further please what are these blacklists
    Are you using a very strange VPN?

    Asking for a friend.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,276
    Orban is running at 54% with 84% counted according to Wikipedia.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Hungarian_parliamentary_election
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,266
    edited April 2022
    PaulD said:

    Well I've no idea why that is can you explain further please what are these blacklists
    Just to help you out here: "...what these blacklists are" would be better.
  • PaulDPaulD Posts: 51

    Are you using a very strange VPN?

    Asking for a friend.
    I've no idea mate better ask rcs he seems very interested in this
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,082
    PaulD said:

    Please debate intelligently...thankyou
    Sigh - he was telling you to sell the Skyfleet puts - NOW!!!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,243
    edited April 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Evangelicals may not but many of them are Baptists and Pentecostals not Church of England. Most Anglo Catholics in the Church of England would probably even convert back to Rome after disestablishment and soon the Roman Catholic Church would again be the largest church in England for the first time since the Reformation. The Church of England would be a small mainly liberal church
    As has already been pointed out to you by people who seemingly know a lot more about it than you, most of the Anglo-Catholics have already returned to the Catholic church over the issue of female ordination. A change of the figurehead at the top is not going to cause a mass exodus.

    The greatest threat to your church is not Catholicism but agnosticism and atheism.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    PaulD said:

    I agree. He has to lose. But he needs something to sell to his own people or Russia won't stop fighting and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will lose their lives. Try explaining your stance to a Ukrainian mother who loses her son in the months of war of grinding attrition. Please try
    It's not my decision of course, it it up to Ukraine, but hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will die if they are trapped on the wrong side of a cease-fire line. Her son (or daughter: plenty of women are fighting) will have died defending her and indeed us in a wider sense.

    So we should give them as much support as we can without actually triggering WWIII so that the Ukrainian armed forces have as good a chance as they can of coming back: after all, in the words of a famous US general:

    No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making some other poor dumb bastard die for his country.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,082
    PaulD said:

    I agree. He has to lose. But he needs something to sell to his own people or Russia won't stop fighting and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will lose their lives. Try explaining your stance to a Ukrainian mother who loses her son in the months of war of grinding attrition. Please try
    We politely ask the Ukrainian army to stop before the Chinese border. By offering Zelensky an Oscar for "Servant of the People", in return

    That can be Putin's win.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited April 2022
    Foxy said:

    Particularly iffy on electoral bribery though.
    Must caution you (unofficially) that Santa Claus is current a member of the North Pole, Alaska city council, having been elected - at the top of the pole - receiving 102 votes.

    Personally believe Santa's campaign was a clean as the driven snow! Maybe you could solicit depositions from disgruntled elves?

    https://www.northpolealaska.com/citycouncil

    https://www.northpolealaska.com/sites/default/files/fileattachments/city_clerk/page/190/unofficial_election_results_-_city_of_north_pole.pdf
  • PaulDPaulD Posts: 51

    It's not my decision of course, it it up to Ukraine, but hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will die if they are trapped on the wrong side of a cease-fire line. Her son (or daughter: plenty of women are fighting) will have died defending her and indeed us in a wider sense.

    So we should give them as much support as we can without actually triggering WWIII so that the Ukrainian armed forces have as good a chance as they can of coming back: after all, in the words of a famous US general:

    No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making some other poor dumb bastard die for his country.
    If putin was given an off ramp I don't think you would see the slaughter that would come from the alternative...a war of attrition
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,082
    PaulD said:

    I've no idea mate better ask rcs he seems very interested in this
    Virgil Malloy : Who you calling bud, pal?
    Turk Malloy : Who you calling pal, friend?
    Virgil Malloy : Who you calling friend, jackass?
    Turk Malloy : Don't call me a jackass.
    Virgil Malloy : I just did call you a jackass.
  • PaulDPaulD Posts: 51

    We politely ask the Ukrainian army to stop before the Chinese border. By offering Zelensky an Oscar for "Servant of the People", in return

    That can be Putin's win.
    Indeed but totally unrealistic
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,243
    HYUFD said:

    Article 16 of the Norwegian constitution makes clear the Church of Norway is 'the established Church' and that the state must support it. Article 4 also requires the Norwegian monarch to be a member of the Church of Norway.

    Section 4 of the Constitution of Denmark also confirms the Church of the Denmark as the established church. The only reason the monarch is not the head of them is the Lutheran Church is an evangelical church not a Catholic church like the Church of England.
    However in both nations it remains the established church under the constitution.

    Thus in Norway 67% are Lutheran and only 3% Roman Catholic and in Denmark 74% are Lutheran and just 1.3% Roman Catholic. Whereas in virtually every other European nation, even the formerly Protestant majority Netherlands and Germany where there is no established church, either the Roman Catholic Church or the Orthodox Church is the largest church apart from the UK (mainly because of the Church of England)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Norway#:~:text=Religion in Norway is dominated,by 3.4% of the population.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christianity_in_Denmark

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_the_Netherlands
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Germany
    Article 16 was changed by a Constitutional amendment in 2012. Please do try and keep up.

    Better still please do shut up as you are wasting everyone's time with your drivel.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    kjh said:

    What I don't understand is why any of this matters. Don't you all just belong to the church you want to belong to? You aren't competing are you? Or are you? I'm genuinely confused.

    I have no objection to religion or different churches, but I would like to be left out of it. While one sect is established it does have an impact, albeit minor.
    It’s not just me then! I find religious chatter dull enough, but the narcissism of small differences over one sect or other of the same religion is just taking mundanity to a whole new level.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861
    edited April 2022

    As has already been pointed out to you by people who seemingly know a lot more about it than you, most of the Anglo-Catholics have already returned to eth Catholic church over the issue of female ordination. A change of the figurehead at the top is not going to cause a mass exodus.

    The greatest threat to your church is not Catholicism but agnosticism and atheism.
    Some by no means all. The Church of England would split on disestablishment with the Anglo Catholics going to Rome, the evangelicals going to become Baptists or Pentecostals leaving a small, largely liberal church remaining but with the Roman Catholic church again likely to become the largest church in England within a few decades.

    Agnosticism and to a lesser extent atheism in England is rather irrelevant in a context where the Pope heads 1.3 billion Roman Catholics globally, nearly 20 times the entire UK population. Disestablishment means the Pope, not the monarch of the UK, again will in due course become the main spiritual head on earth in England and can bring his global powerbase to entrench that further. Remember too the global population is growing fastest in the developing world which is also the most religious part of the world and low birth rates in the UK coupled with increased immigration from the developing world would further shift things
  • PaulDPaulD Posts: 51

    Virgil Malloy : Who you calling bud, pal?
    Turk Malloy : Who you calling pal, friend?
    Virgil Malloy : Who you calling friend, jackass?
    Turk Malloy : Don't call me a jackass.
    Virgil Malloy : I just did call you a jackass.
    Lol I'm still waiting for rcs to get back to me...I thought the "type" of people who worked at goldman sachs were renowned for their efficiency
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    PaulD said:

    I've no idea mate better ask rcs he seems very interested in this
    Do you know who RCS is? A person of immense (or is it intense?) influence it seems with OGH!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,341
    edited April 2022
    I think there should be a new site policy. IP on a blacklist, automatic redirection to Conservative Home.....
  • Ally_B1Ally_B1 Posts: 55
    PaulD said:

    I agree. He has to lose. But he needs something to sell to his own people or Russia won't stop fighting and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will lose their lives. Try explaining your stance to a Ukrainian mother who loses her son in the months of war of grinding attrition. Please try
    I think it may be beneficial to look at this from the Ukrainian side PaulD and try explaining a result to them that is anything other than a recovery of all their invaded terittory. Reflect on how a UK citizen might feel if Cornwall had been annexed by the French, as our nearest neighbour, who then invaded Devon on the pretext of reuniting England with France and then proceeded to kill and mutilate every non-combatant they came across. As a UK citizen I would want to see everyone of them thrown back into the sea with no compromise now possible. There would be no need to explain to a UK mother about her lost son. She would simply ask "How many of them did he kill?"
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,243
    HYUFD said:

    Some by no means all. The Church of England would split on disestablishment with the Anglo Catholics going to Rome, the evangelicals going to become Baptists or Pentecostals leaving a small, largely liberal church remaining but with the Roman Catholic church again likely to become the largest church in England within a few decades.

    Agnosticism and to a lesser extent atheism in England is rather irrelevant in a context where the Pope heads 1.3 billion Roman Catholics globally, over 20 times the entire UK population. Disestablishment means the Pope, not the monarch of the UK, again will in due course become the main spiritual head on earth in England and can bring his global powerbase to entrench that further. Remember too the global population is growing fastest in the developing world which is also the most religious part of the world
    Simply not true, no matter how many times you repeat it. Yet another area in which you are wrong to add to the many others.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    PaulD said:

    If putin was given an off ramp I don't think you would see the slaughter that would come from the alternative...a war of attrition
    What is the point of giving him an "off ramp"? Putin is perfectly capable of claiming anything he likes as a win. After all, his stated reasons for invading in the first place have no connection with reality, so why should his reasons for getting all his troops out? If he wants to claim a win he can: what he shouldn't be allowed is any actual benefit from the invasion.
  • PaulDPaulD Posts: 51

    Do you know who RCS is? A person of immense (or is it intense?) influence it seems with OGH!
    Who is ogh
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    I think there should be a new site policy. On a blacklist, automatic redirection to Conservative Home.....

    AND also to MyPillow.com
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,632

    File under 'you couldn't make it up'.

    NEW: The Government’s former head of propriety and ethics has been fined over a “raucous” karaoke party in the Cabinet Office at which there was a drunken brawl.

    https://twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1510718992180256771

    We at last have the answer why they were having so many parties. They would have been bored rigid otherwise. I mean, what could the Head of Propriety and Ethics in a Johnson government possibly have to do?

    Once they've sharpened their pencils and polished the phone and maybe filled the printer with paper and made a coffee it will be about ..... ooh, 9:15 am ..... with all those hours to fill.

    Remember too that the woman in charge of the unit who wrote all the lockdown rules also broke them.

    No wonder Boris thought everyone was complying with the rules if these were the people advising him.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,113
    PaulD said:

    If putin was given an off ramp I don't think you would see the slaughter that would come from the alternative...a war of attrition
    Ukraine wins a war of attrition, grinding down what is left of the Russian BTGs. In a long war it is all about sustainable losses. Having seen Bucha, the Ukranians will have a will to fight, and are not short of morale, soldiers or Western arms and finance.

    Having been humiliated in the North, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a similar Russian collapse in the South and Donbas.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Interesting thread:

    Sergey Karaganov – a well-known Russian foreign policy shaman gave an interview to @MacaesBruno (Kudos!) for @NewStatesman which, I think, requires few comments. Here's my refelctions in 🧵:

    https://twitter.com/SlawomirDebski/status/1510716432497184773
  • PaulDPaulD Posts: 51

    What is the point of giving him an "off ramp"? Putin is perfectly capable of claiming anything he likes as a win. After all, his stated reasons for invading in the first place have no connection with reality, so why should his reasons for getting all his troops out? If he wants to claim a win he can: what he shouldn't be allowed is any actual benefit from the invasion.
    Well what he claims has to have some sort of connection to reality
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,276
    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway, I am back up North tomorrow am. I have been a city girl most of my life - Naples, London, Bristol, Paris - with childhood holidays in very rural Ireland. I love cities.

    And, yet, I feel trapped in London in a way I have never done before. I look out of the window and see buildings. Even though on the top floor I can see across London to the Surrey hills the view is still of buildings. And my soul dies a little. Everywhere I look out of my home up North I see sea and sky and mountains and valleys so sumptuous in their colours it makes my heart fit to burst. And the bird song. Plus the moon at night and stars, lots of them. I really miss it. I cannot wait to get back.

    I never thought I would feel this way. Can people change quite so much? Or maybe I have secretly always been a solitary misanthrope?

    There is something about the natural world which my mind, my soul needs, I think, to feel whole. No other way to explain it.

    Plus - mad as it is - I love driving by myself. Nothing better than to have the music on very loud - and have some really strong music on to get the blood racing. Just f***ing awesome.

    Still in May I shall be speaking at a big conference in London. If you're very good I may tell you about it and you can come and enthusiastically applaud. 😀

    Don't forget about the Midlands. It sometimes feels like some people only think about either London or the North and forget about the Midlands altogether.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited April 2022

    We politely ask the Ukrainian army to stop before the Chinese border. By offering Zelensky an Oscar for "Servant of the People", in return

    That can be Putin's win.
    He'd be perfect as lead in remake of "Death of Stalin"

    Know it's bit early for remaking but what the heck

    ADDENDUM - And with cameo appearance by Sen. Linday Graham (R-Closet)
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,481
    edited April 2022

    A pretty strong condemnation of France and Germany from Zelensky:

    @mrsorokaa
    ⚡️ “I invite Merkel and Sarkozy to visit Bucha and to see the outcome of 14 years of concessions to Russia,” Zelensky said in his video address.

    “You will see with your own eyes the tortured Ukrainians.”


    https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1510691944938283009

    Can anybody think why he didn't invite Boris, Cameron or May as well?

    Must have slipped his mind.

    Either that or "Londongrad" and Lord Lebedev and whatever is pretty irrelevant compared to supplying weapons and training troops.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861
    kjh said:

    What I don't understand is why any of this matters. Don't you all just belong to the church you want to belong to? You aren't competing are you? Or are you? I'm genuinely confused.

    I have no objection to religion or different churches, but I would like to be left out of it. While one sect is established it does have an impact, albeit minor.
    The main impact for the non actively religious is it ensures the monarch, not the Pope is the main Christian spiritual head in England.

    Plus of course you can still get married and buried in a historic Church of England Parish Church as an automatic right whether you regularly attend that Church or not as long as it remains the established Church
  • PaulDPaulD Posts: 51
    Foxy said:

    Ukraine wins a war of attrition, grinding down what is left of the Russian BTGs. In a long war it is all about sustainable losses. Having seen Bucha, the Ukranians will have a will to fight, and are not short of morale, soldiers or Western arms and finance.

    Having been humiliated in the North, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a similar Russian collapse in the South and Donbas.
    Well its possible...I have an open mind
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,113

    Must caution you (unofficially) that Santa Claus is current a member of the North Pole, Alaska city council, having been elected - at the top of the pole - receiving 102 votes.

    Personally believe Santa's campaign was a clean as the driven snow! Maybe you could solicit depositions from disgruntled elves?

    https://www.northpolealaska.com/citycouncil

    https://www.northpolealaska.com/sites/default/files/fileattachments/city_clerk/page/190/unofficial_election_results_-_city_of_north_pole.pdf
    I want to see his expense accounts.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,477
    PaulD said:

    Who is ogh
    Our Gracious Host and RCS is his son and wields the ban hammer.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    PaulD said:

    Well what he claims has to have some sort of connection to reality
    Why would he start doing that?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861
    Andy_JS said:

    Don't forget about the Midlands. It sometimes feels like some people only think about either London or the North and forget about the Midlands altogether.
    Yes, who doesn't dream of Birmingham, Coventry, Leicester and Nottingham and Stoke!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,266
    Whatever became of @PJohnson?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,082

    He'd be perfect as lead in remake of "Death of Stalin"

    Know it's bit early for remaking but what the heck
    "That's me told. I'm off to represent the entire Red Army at the buffet. You girls enjoy yourselves."
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,082
    Andy_JS said:

    Don't forget about the Midlands. It sometimes feels like some people only think about either London or the North and forget about the Midlands altogether.
    The Shire
This discussion has been closed.