Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Crisis, what crisis? – politicalbetting.com

1234579

Comments

  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,913
    PaulD said:

    Realpolitik my friend...Putin can't withdraw it will be the end of him thus we have to look towards a ceasefire....give Putin a small win he can sell...then strangle the Russian economy with sanctions
    Perhaps he could take his army out of Ukraine and avoid having it all blown up. That's the most win he seems likely to get.

    Now it looks like Ukraine are holding, there's no way that they aren't going to continue getting 'presents' from the West. What are all those stockpiled missiles for if not taking out the Russian army? Why bother waiting to use it yourself when someone else seems to have a very good idea what to do with it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879

    If the Queen is the Anglican's "main religious guide on earth" then what is the point of the Archbishop of Canterbury?

    Royal families are an obscene anachronism that should be abolished.
    The Queen is the Supreme Governor of the Church of England, the Archbishop of Canterbury the symbolic head of the global Anglican Communion and leader of the Church of England. However the Monarch effectively heads the Church of England as they have done since the Reformation.

    Constitutional monarchies are of course amongst the most prosperous and free nations on earth, as we are too
  • glwglw Posts: 10,349
    edited April 2022

    The quality of the russian trolls are about as good as their tanks. Even a Leon powered by Nyetimber Rose and a flint dildo can take them down with ease.

    I did notice an article that the Americans are apparently reassessing the Russian military given their performance in Ukraine. I should imagine it will be quite short and sweet. e.g. Russia = crap.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Here is an interesting extract from the mistakenly published victory article.

    https://twitter.com/Tom_deWaal/status/1498310064117059585

    Makes a distinction between France and Germany on the one hand and the anglo saxons on the other who wish to assert western hegemony over everyone.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,734
    PaulD said:

    We must not let our hatred of Putin blind us to what can realistically be done about him
    And remember in the meantime the Ukrainians are suffering beyond our comprehension

    We can realistically give Ukraine the weapons they are asking for. I know you think it would be fair for Putin to get some kind of consolation prize for his failed invasion, but the real world doesn't work like that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,353
    edited April 2022
    PaulD said:

    Well why don't you tell him that...I'm sure he would oblige...unfortunately the real world doesn't work like that...
    Hey, you're the one who's saying that, not me. I'm just pointing out the logic of your remarks.

    To answer your other point, has it occurred to you that more Ukrainians might suffer unimaginable horrors for longer under Russian occupation than even they are suffering now? Which they know, and is why they keep fighting.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,371
    edited April 2022
    Waves to Moscow....do you have a special training manual to explain to newbies the role of pineapple pizzas, radiohead live, die hard movies, english sparkling wine and flint dildos?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,353

    Waves to Moscow....do you have a special training manual to explain to newbies the role of pineapple pizzas, radiohead live, die hard movies, english sparkling wine and flint dildos?

    Training for the last is easy, you just take a knap.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,371
    glw said:

    I did notice an article that the Americans are apparently reassessing the Russian military given their performance in Ukraine. I should imagine it will be quite short and sweet. e.g. Russia = crap.
    GCHQ investigation is codenamed Radiohead Live.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,906

    Waves to Moscow....do you have a special training manual to explain to newbies the role of pineapple pizzas, radiohead live, die hard movies, english sparkling wine and flint dildos?

    They do, but the translation was off and it came out as flint pizzas and pineapple dildos.
  • PaulDPaulD Posts: 51

    Perhaps he could take his army out of Ukraine and avoid having it all blown up. That's the most win he seems likely to get.

    Now it looks like Ukraine are holding, there's no way that they aren't going to continue getting 'presents' from the West. What are all those stockpiled missiles for if not taking out the Russian army? Why bother waiting to use it yourself when someone else seems to have a very good idea what to do with it?
    Unfortunately that means the torture and rape of countless Ukrainian innocents....a heavy price to pay...the Russians will only get more brutal
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    PaulD said:

    The slaughter of innocents in Ukraine is horrifying...we can't just stand by and let it happen...the Russians are going to torture brutally and kill many people trust me
    Why "trust me" as if you had privileged insight? Personally I think posters like you are just wankers and by no means in the pay of Moscow. But a little part of me thinks: you are Fiedler, so who is Mundt?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879

    Here is an interesting extract from the mistakenly published victory article.

    https://twitter.com/Tom_deWaal/status/1498310064117059585

    Makes a distinction between France and Germany on the one hand and the anglo saxons on the other who wish to assert western hegemony over everyone.

    Plus '“China and India, Latin America and Africa, the Islamic world and Southeast Asia - no one believes that the West leads the world order, much less sets the rules of the game. Russia has not only thrown down a challenge to the West,... "..it's shown the era of Western global domination can be considered fully and definitively over. The new world will be built by all civilizations and centres of power, naturally, together with the West (united or not) -but not on its terms and not according to its rules.”
    https://twitter.com/Tom_deWaal/status/1498310091698802699?s=20&t=V-_MzMrzdFWH7BcYidkbFw
    https://twitter.com/Tom_deWaal/status/1498310093863104512?s=20&t=V-_MzMrzdFWH7BcYidkbFw
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,353
    IshmaelZ said:

    Why "trust me" as if you had privileged insight? Personally I think posters like you are just wankers and by no means in the pay of Moscow. But a little part of me thinks: you are Fiedler, so who is Mundt?
    Somebody who went for a Burton.
  • PaulDPaulD Posts: 51
    ydoethur said:

    Hey, you're the one who's saying that, not me. I'm just pointing out the logic of your remarks.

    To answer your other point, has it occurred to you that more Ukrainians might suffer unimaginable horrors for longer under Russian occupation than even they are suffering now? Which they know, and is why they keep fighting.
    Most of Ukraine wouldn't be under russian occupation after a ceasefire except possibly the donbass which will satisfy Putin so your point is invalid
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    PaulD said:

    I would be if that would end the war...but all I think would happen then is Putin gets more aggressive and we could see hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian lives lost
    Baring in mind what's happened in Mariupol, there are probably over 100,000 civilians dead already. we will only ever have a broadly accurate number if Putin loses. Putin will 'ethnically cleanse' or Politically Cleanse' all the areas he is left with at the end.

    I think your idea of holding back support so that Ukraine has to give in discussing. I don't know if you are paid by Putin's machine to post here, or whether you are naturally a 'Useful idiot' but I disagree wholeheartedly with your position.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,353
    PaulD said:

    Most of Ukraine wouldn't be under russian occupation after a ceasefire except possibly the donbass which will satisfy Putin so your point is invalid
    So you think he's giving up Crimea? That's good news, if unexpected.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Waves to Moscow....do you have a special training manual to explain to newbies the role of pineapple pizzas, radiohead live, die hard movies, english sparkling wine and flint dildos?

    Works both ways mind, the reason I know for certain @Heathener is not a troll is, she picked up an obscure reference to a slightly wacky work of mycology.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,353
    IshmaelZ said:

    Works both ways mind, the reason I know for certain @Heathener is not a troll is, she picked up an obscure reference to a slightly wacky work of mycology.
    Showing that your knowledge makes you a fungi to be around.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,223

    So "true" significance of another rigged Orban victory in Hungary, is that'll piss off EU? Really?

    Good news for Project Brexit though.


  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    So you think he's giving up Crimea? That's good news, if unexpected.
    He hopes to evade Punishmenta, perhaps.
  • PaulDPaulD Posts: 51
    BigRich said:

    Baring in mind what's happened in Mariupol, there are probably over 100,000 civilians dead already. we will only ever have a broadly accurate number if Putin loses. Putin will 'ethnically cleanse' or Politically Cleanse' all the areas he is left with at the end.

    I think your idea of holding back support so that Ukraine has to give in discussing. I don't know if you are paid by Putin's machine to post here, or whether you are naturally a 'Useful idiot' but I disagree wholeheartedly with your position.
    Even with extra support you would just end up with a war of attrition and hundreds of thousands of innocents sacrificed
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    BigRich said:

    I like the idea but Putin has enough allies, to stop even if 15 could not stop a peacekeeping force, Putin got 16 votes in last assembly, and many more abstaining.

    incidentally, I hope we stop giving any 'aid' to nations that voted with Putin in the UK last time, maybe the abstainers as well.
    Do we know who those 16 were?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879

    Good news for Project Brexit though.


    Orban is probably Boris' biggest supporter in the EU, true
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,475
    ydoethur said:

    So you think he's giving up Crimea? That's good news, if unexpected.
    He will no more give up crimea than I will give up Jakehead.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,734
    I think we should hear @PaulD out. If he thinks we should come up with ways of sparing innocent Ukrainians from the brunt of the fighting, perhaps we should aim to open up a second front by fomenting an insurgency within Russia or Belarus to distract their forces?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    It’s a puzzle thinking through where Russia will be 5 years from now. The actions of its army are such that there will now be no watering down of sanctions, forgive and forget after a carve up, business as usual etc…

    The war will go on until Ukraine has driven Russia out of the Donbass supported by renewed Western resolve (and advanced weaponry). And the sanctions (both legally mandated and behaviourally gold plated) will likely long outlast the war, unless we strike gold and Putin dies and is replaced by an Abramovich type.

    So what happens to the Russian state and it’s civil society? Its military will be substantially weaker. Its economy resembling autarky. And its population likely smaller, less internationalist and more extremist.

    Then what? Some unsettling possibilities, including Balkanisation. But who bloody knows.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,683
    PaulD said:

    Interestingly Hitchens in the most today says the USA is using the Ukraine war as a proxy war to drive Russia back to the stone age....

    Oh god. Hitchens.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Churchill isn't buried in a church. His grave is outside in the graveyard of Bladon Church from which you can see Blenheim Palace where he was born. It is an incredibly moving grave as well. A massive plain white marble with his name inscribed on it.
    Quite right to correct me. I'd already emended my posting earlier as it happens.

    I was quite taken aback to find it many years ago on a hike from Woodstock along Akeman Street and then by Stonesfield and Bladon back to the bus. Commendably plain, at his insistence I believe.
  • Current seat projection:

    Fidesz–KDNP 134

    United for Hungary 57

    Our Homeland 8
  • PaulDPaulD Posts: 51
    moonshine said:

    It’s a puzzle thinking through where Russia will be 5 years from now. The actions of its army are such that there will now be no watering down of sanctions, forgive and forget after a carve up, business as usual etc…

    The war will go on until Ukraine has driven Russia out of the Donbass supported by renewed Western resolve (and advanced weaponry). And the sanctions (both legally mandated and behaviourally gold plated) will likely long outlast the war, unless we strike gold and Putin dies and is replaced by an Abramovich type.

    So what happens to the Russian state and it’s civil society? Its military will be substantially weaker. Its economy resembling autarky. And its population likely smaller, less internationalist and more extremist.

    Then what? Some unsettling possibilities, including Balkanisation. But who bloody knows.

    Russia will not give up the donbass...if their backs are to the walk chemical weapons or tactical nukes will be used...your argument falls apart here as Putin can't afford a defeat
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,243
    HYUFD said:

    The Queen is the Supreme Governor of the Church of England, the Archbishop of Canterbury the symbolic head of the global Anglican Communion and leader of the Church of England. However the Monarch effectively heads the Church of England as they have done since the Reformation.

    Constitutional monarchies are of course amongst the most prosperous and free nations on earth, as we are too
    I have no problem with constitutional monarchies. I think they are a good way to govern. But that in no way necessitates the monarch being head of the Church. All those other constitutional monarchies get by perfectly well without that bit of medieval mendacity so I see no reason why we should not as well
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Do we know who those 16 were?
    Just double checked my facts, and no only 5 nations voted against, Russia, Belorussia, North Korea, Syria and Eretria, in total 35 nations ether formally abstained and 12 did not show up to the vote.

    I think I was adding the 12 did not tern up to the vote with the 5 who voted against and taking off Russia to come up with 16, anyway I was wrong. you would still need to have a system where a small group could not veto a peacekeeping force.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/un-vote-ukraine-russia-countries-abstained-general-assembly-result-resolution-explained-1495346
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited April 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    My worst nightmare.
    The whole point is that the English monarch has no sane right to be head of a religious sect at all. And that that religious sect shoudl not be given special political privileges in a supposedly 21st century polity.

    For another thing - it's the Church of England. You know, the bit of the UK to the south and east. But what about Wales? Ireland? Scotland? Damn all for those. Yet [edit] HYUFD's party claims to govern for the UK as a whole. [Sorry to Ishmael for getting out of step - apols.]
  • PaulDPaulD Posts: 51
    kinabalu said:

    Oh god. Hitchens.
    Rigid thinking is not good kinabalu...you may even learn something from Hitchens
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,487

    They do, but the translation was off and it came out as flint pizzas and pineapple dildos.
    That is really going hurt twice over.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    Carnyx said:

    The whole point is that the English monarch has no sane right to be head of a religious sect at all. And that that religious sect shoudl not be given special political privileges in a supposedly 21st century polity.

    For another thing - it's the Church of England. You know, the bit of the UK to the south and east. But what about Wales? Ireland? Scotland? Damn all for those. Yet your party claims to govern for the UK as a whole.
    Yes they do. The whole point of the Church of England is it is not solely an evangelical Protestant church like your Church of Scotland nor a Roman Catholic church either. It is a Protestant church in the Catholic tradition. Disestablishment ends that.

    As I already pointed out in Wales, Ireland and Scotland the Roman Catholic church is now bigger than the Anglican church, in part because of disestablishment in those areas
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    PaulD said:

    Most of Ukraine wouldn't be under russian occupation after a ceasefire except possibly the donbass which will satisfy Putin so your point is invalid

    Anything that would "satisfy" Putin is by definition a line too far. Putin must lose and be seen to lose. Putin and his coterie of murderous war criminals are not fit to breathe the air in the company of decent people.

    Frankly he should be strung up by his bollocks in any town square in Ukraine although I would settle for a life term sentence after a war crimes trial in the Hague, but it's a close call.

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited April 2022
    Special for Leon - Politico.com - Palin’s unexpected bid jolts Alaska
    The former vice presidential nominee returns to a party that looks nothing like the one she belonged to when she first burst onto the national stage.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/02/palin-return-to-politics-alaska-00022555

    Sarah Palin considered running for president in 2012, was “seriously interested” in the office four years later and said she’d run for vice president again “in a heartbeat.” Last year, she teased — and prayed about — a potential U.S. Senate run.

    For all that, it nevertheless caught Republicans off guard — including in Palin’s home state — when the former governor of Alaska actually did announce her comeback bid, entering a U.S. House race on Friday. . . .

    In the race to fill the House seat left vacant by the late Rep. Don Young, Palin is no shoo-in. Though she once enjoyed sky-high public approval ratings in Alaska, her reputation deteriorated after she resigned from the governorship in 2009 — a self-inflicted wound from which she has not seemed to recover.

    When the longtime Alaska pollster Ivan Moore of Alaska Survey Research tested Palin’s standing with Alaskans in October, he said her favorability rating stood at 31 percent.

    “Let’s face it,” Moore said Saturday. “She has been substantively underwater for many, many years now, and it really dates back to when she quit.” . . . .

    The political landscape — in Alaska, like every Republican-leaning state — may be more favorable to Palin’s smash-mouth politics than it was in 2008. Trump, who won Alaska by about 10 percentage points in 2020 — and with whom Palin spoke last week — is now the fulcrum of the GOP. . . .

    Palin is joining an enormous field, with 51 candidates running to replace Young, including several state lawmakers. But no one else running has Palin’s name, and together with contested U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races in the state, Alaska is poised to draw outsized attention in the midterm campaigns. Even before the House seat opened up, Trump and his allies had been heavily involved in Alaska, with the former president — and state party leaders — endorsing a primary challenge to GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski after Murkowski voted to convict Trump following his impeachment trial last year.

    . . . . If Palin successfully energizes Trump-aligned Republicans to turn out in greater numbers, it could damage Murkowski and help her Trump-endorsed opponent, Kelly Tshibaka. . . .

    SSI - My own take is that Sarah Palin will almost certainly make the June special primary Top 4 but that field may determine IF she can withstand RCV transfers against her.

    And note filing deadline for REGULAR August 2022 primary for US House (also US Senate & etc) is NOT until June 1.

    Meaning SP has time to assess how things are going, before deciding whether to file for full 2023-5 term. Requiring being on ballot in August in BOTH special election and regular primary, then winning another RCV election this fall.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited April 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Yes they do. The whole point of the Church of England is it is not solely an evangelical Protestant church like your Church of Scotland nor a Roman Catholic church either. It is a Protestant church in the Catholic tradition. Disestablishment ends that.

    As I already pointed out in Wales, Ireland and Scotland the Roman Catholic church is now bigger than the Anglican church, in part because of disestablishment in those areas
    So? The purpose of the UK state is not to pamper your sect. If it can't cope on its own it shouldn't be given the backing of the state at all. And, in any case, the Episcopal (not Anglican!) churches in Scotland, Ireland and Wales were minorities anyway.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    I think we should hear @PaulD out. If he thinks we should come up with ways of sparing innocent Ukrainians from the brunt of the fighting, perhaps we should aim to open up a second front by fomenting an insurgency within Russia or Belarus to distract their forces?

    Now Russia has retreated over the boarder in the north, if they take what's left and usable to the Donbass, perhaps there is an opportunity for a uprising in Belarus?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Carnyx said:

    The whole point is that the English monarch has no sane right to be head of a religious sect at all. And that that religious sect shoudl not be given special political privileges in a supposedly 21st century polity.

    For another thing - it's the Church of England. You know, the bit of the UK to the south and east. But what about Wales? Ireland? Scotland? Damn all for those. Yet your party claims to govern for the UK as a whole.
    Also true that the English monarch has no sane right to be the English monarch at all. But here we are. We need to resolve the whole thing not tinker round the edges, and when people say resolve the whole thing I always think

    And always keep ahold of nurse
    For fear of finding something worse.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,690
    MaxPB said:

    My conversations with actual Europeans are why I'm taking aim at the fifth columnists who revelled in making bogus comparisons to COVID across Europe and labelling their own nation a "plague island". It's those conversations that made me realise the signal boosting from 15% by other 15%ers in the media of the completely false idea that COVID is or was ever any worse here than any other major European country has unnecessarily given the UK a reputation overseas to avoid.

    Honestly, one of the reasons we need to stop testing and actually halt the ONS series is to allow UK tourism to recover. Every country across the world has the same endemic rate of COVID, the only difference is that we waste time and money trying to detect it.

    There's a group of people in the country who take joy from doing down the nation, during COVID they labelled the UK a "plague island" and unsurprisingly the rest of Europe noticed and now our tourist industry is struggling to recover from that label despite it being completely false.

    We still get it now with people claiming that the UK had a less than good response to COVID, the reality is that it was above average. It would have been better if we'd simply stopped wasting money on testing and had lower numbers. It would have made no difference to the actual rate of COVID but we'd have had half the overall number of confirmed infections the same as the rest of Europe that didn't bother testing.
    The effect you mention may be true, but I doubt it's just that. Incoming tourists to the UK are disproportionately (I would surmise) from older age groups, who are likely to be more cautious before resuming their travel plans. Outbound tourists from the UK are disproportionately (again I would say) young families and young people, who are likely to travel as soon as they can.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    edited April 2022

    I have no problem with constitutional monarchies. I think they are a good way to govern. But that in no way necessitates the monarch being head of the Church. All those other constitutional monarchies get by perfectly well without that bit of medieval mendacity so I see no reason why we should not as well
    In the constitutional monarchies of Norway or Denmark the Lutheran church is the established church, in part also to still stop the Roman Catholic Church becoming again the main church in the nation. Even if the Lutheran church as an evangelical church does not believe in having a top down head so much. In the constitutional monarchy of Spain for example where there is no established church the Roman Catholic church is still by far the largest church, so the default head of the established church is the Pope
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    IshmaelZ said:

    Also true that the English monarch has no sane right to be the English monarch at all. But here we are. We need to resolve the whole thing not tinker round the edges, and when people say resolve the whole thing I always think

    And always keep ahold of nurse
    For fear of finding something worse.
    HYUFD and his like have been saying that for centuries. And it's now about time something was done about it. We can't continue with the constitutional equivalent of wattle and daub, and villeins ploughing with oxen, especially as it's such a blatant constitutional asymmetry.
  • Fines issued over Downing Street party the night before Philip’s funeral

    Exclusive: fixed-penalty notices handed out for leaving do for aide to Boris Johnson on 16 April 2021


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/03/fines-issued-over-downing-street-party-the-night-before-philips-funeral
  • Waves to Moscow....do you have a special training manual to explain to newbies the role of pineapple pizzas, radiohead live, die hard movies, english sparkling wine and flint dildos?

    Well I do mention the vileness of pineapple on pizza in the thread header.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    JACK_W said:

    Anything that would "satisfy" Putin is by definition a line too far. Putin must lose and be seen to lose. Putin and his coterie of murderous war criminals are not fit to breathe the air in the company of decent people.

    Frankly he should be strung up by his bollocks in any town square in Ukraine although I would settle for a life term sentence after a war crimes trial in the Hague, but it's a close call.

    Hi there @JACK_W

    Nice to hear from you, but this strung up by his bollocks talk is so far removed from the urbane aristocratic jacobinism we have come to expect from @JackW that I do wonder whether you are the same guy?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    edited April 2022
    Getting away from the Russian trolls on here, two betting tips out of the crisis:

    1. GOP POTUS nomination 2024: Sell Trump, buy DeSantis - my personal view is that what has happened in the Ukraine is going to be the thing that turns the GOP base against Trump. Not hugely so but enough to let other contenders feel this is not a suicide mission and to make their move. Plus Trump is vulnerable given his comments about the war, especially the "Putin is a genius" line. As for DeSantis, he has managed to pick himself another culture war fight with Disney that is winning him kudos amongst the GOP base.

    2. French Presidential election - sell Macron, buy Le Pen. There has been a lot of talk on here that the French would never vote for the "fascist" Le Pen. However, the world has changed and electorates are likely to shift to politicians who display some backbone. Macron is not that person. I don't think it's a coincidence that his poll ratings have slipped in tandem with his increasingly desperate calls to Putin. He looks like a weakling and someone who is ignored, and the French like to think their Presidents have some inner strength.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    HYUFD said:

    In the constitutional monarchies of Norway or Denmark the Lutheran church is the established church, in part also to still stop the Roman Catholic Church becoming again the main church in the nation. Even if the Lutheran church as an evangelical church does not believe in having a top down head so much. In the constitutional monarchy of Spain for example where there is no established church the Roman Catholic church is still by far the largest church, so the default head of the established church is the Pope
    There is no established church where there is no establishment of the church. So why worry??
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    PaulD said:

    Russia will not give up the donbass...if their backs are to the walk chemical weapons or tactical nukes will be used...your argument falls apart here as Putin can't afford a defeat
    Putin would not long survive the use of chemical and especially nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814

    Well I do mention the vileness of pineapple on pizza in the thread header.
    It’s all about bacon and banana.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    Carnyx said:

    So? The purpose of the UK state is not to pamper your sect. If it can't cope on its own it shouldn't be given the backing of the state at all. And, in any case, the Episcopal (not Anglican!) churches in Scotland, Ireland and Wales were minorities anyway.
    It is not to listen to Scottish nationalists like you either who could not care less about the UK.

    We have already seen from your country Roman Catholicism and the Pope have greatly increased in power as you did not have an established Protestant Catholic church as we did in England.

    In Northern Ireland and Wales the Church of Ireland and the Church in Wales were bigger than the Roman Catholic church before disestablishment
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    moonshine said:

    Putin would not long survive the use of chemical and especially nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
    Why not?
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    IshmaelZ said:

    Hi there @JACK_W

    Nice to hear from you, but this strung up by his bollocks talk is so far removed from the urbane aristocratic jacobinism we have come to expect from @JackW that I do wonder whether you are the same guy?
    Will testicles suit? ... You are also clearly unfamiliar with my fine pie business? .. :sunglasses:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,452
    BigRich said:

    I like the idea but Putin has enough allies, to stop even if 15 could not stop a peacekeeping force, Putin got 16 votes in last assembly, and many more abstaining.

    incidentally, I hope we stop giving any 'aid' to nations that voted with Putin in the UK last time, maybe the abstainers as well.
    I'm thinking no member of the security council could veto a peace-keeping force.

    If ever there was a need for a UN peace keeping force, it is Ukraine.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    moonshine said:

    It’s a puzzle thinking through where Russia will be 5 years from now. The actions of its army are such that there will now be no watering down of sanctions, forgive and forget after a carve up, business as usual etc…

    The war will go on until Ukraine has driven Russia out of the Donbass supported by renewed Western resolve (and advanced weaponry). And the sanctions (both legally mandated and behaviourally gold plated) will likely long outlast the war, unless we strike gold and Putin dies and is replaced by an Abramovich type.

    So what happens to the Russian state and it’s civil society? Its military will be substantially weaker. Its economy resembling autarky. And its population likely smaller, less internationalist and more extremist.

    Then what? Some unsettling possibilities, including Balkanisation. But who bloody knows.

    I think a lot of century's are desperate to de-escalate and get back to biasness as usual, Germany and France being the biggest. the sanctions we have at the moment are not that bad for him, and over time he can adapt, and many places will be pusing to water down sanctions, not to mention black marked and China. If Putin does not loos militarily he will have won.

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD and his like have been saying that for centuries. And it's now about time something was done about it. We can't continue with the constitutional equivalent of wattle and daub, and villeins ploughing with oxen, especially as it's such a blatant constitutional asymmetry.
    Believe the actual earthly governor of the Church of England is Richard Tilbrook, Clerk to the Privy Council and the Prime Minister's Appointments Secretary.

    At least CoEers have a clerk in (un)holy orders to decide what aspiring clerics make it up the greasy crosier.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    JACK_W said:

    Will testicles suit? ... You are also clearly unfamiliar with my fine pie business? .. :sunglasses:
    OK the pie reference reassures me
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,487

    The effect you mention may be true, but I doubt it's just that. Incoming tourists to the UK are disproportionately (I would surmise) from older age groups, who are likely to be more cautious before resuming their travel plans. Outbound tourists from the UK are disproportionately (again I would say) young families and young people, who are likely to travel as soon as they can.
    Good post.

    This might be a false memory on my part but I recall a lot of press on the Belgium and Dutch COVID issues so I'm not sure it is fair to say we were doing down our nation re COVID. Didn't Belgium take a big hit in the media?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    moonshine said:

    Putin would not long survive the use of chemical and especially nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
    to be fair, a lot of people will not survive that.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    MrEd said:

    Getting away from the Russian trolls on here, two betting tips out of the crisis:

    1. GOP POTUS nomination 2024: Sell Trump, buy DeSantis - my personal view is that what has happened in the Ukraine is going to be the thing that turns the GOP base against Trump. Not hugely so but enough to let other contenders feel this is not a suicide mission and to make their move. Plus Trump is vulnerable given his comments about the war, especially the "Putin is a genius" line. As for DeSantis, he has managed to pick himself another culture war fight with Disney that is winning him kudos amongst the GOP base.

    2. French Presidential election - sell Macron, buy Le Pen. There has been a lot of talk on here that the French would never vote for the "fascist" Le Pen. However, the world has changed and electorates are likely to shift to politicians who display some backbone. Macron is not that person. I don't think it's a coincidence that his poll ratings have slipped in tandem with his increasingly desperate calls to Putin. He looks like a weakling and someone who is ignored, and the French like to think their Presidents have some inner strength.

    Like, cogent analysis, albeit don't fully agree though certainly could play out just this way.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    HYUFD said:

    It is not to listen to Scottish nationalists like you either who could not care less about the UK.

    We have already seen from your country Roman Catholicism and the Pope have greatly increased in power as you did not have an established Protestant Catholic church as we did in England.

    In Northern Ireland and Wales the Church of Ireland and the Church in Wales were bigger than the Roman Catholic church before disestablishment
    That is an astonishing misinterpretation of Scottish history from the Reformation to 1690. But perhaps "Our Island Story" doesn't bother with such details.

    In any case, perhaps you would like to explain how the Pope has power in Scotland? Maybe give us some links to your Orange Order chums?
  • MrEd said:

    Getting away from the Russian trolls on here, two betting tips out of the crisis:

    1. GOP POTUS nomination 2024: Sell Trump, buy DeSantis - my personal view is that what has happened in the Ukraine is going to be the thing that turns the GOP base against Trump. Not hugely so but enough to let other contenders feel this is not a suicide mission and to make their move. Plus Trump is vulnerable given his comments about the war, especially the "Putin is a genius" line. As for DeSantis, he has managed to pick himself another culture war fight with Disney that is winning him kudos amongst the GOP base.

    2. French Presidential election - sell Macron, buy Le Pen. There has been a lot of talk on here that the French would never vote for the "fascist" Le Pen. However, the world has changed and electorates are likely to shift to politicians who display some backbone. Macron is not that person. I don't think it's a coincidence that his poll ratings have slipped in tandem with his increasingly desperate calls to Putin. He looks like a weakling and someone who is ignored, and the French like to think their Presidents have some inner strength.

    On the second point I very much agree with you tactically. By which I mean that it is going to look quite close and the markets often favour the more right wing candidate. Though I think on the day Macron may do a bit better than expected. So I have backed Le Pen hugely with rhe hope to trade out between R1 and R2.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    MrEd said:

    Getting away from the Russian trolls on here, two betting tips out of the crisis:

    1. GOP POTUS nomination 2024: Sell Trump, buy DeSantis - my personal view is that what has happened in the Ukraine is going to be the thing that turns the GOP base against Trump. Not hugely so but enough to let other contenders feel this is not a suicide mission and to make their move. Plus Trump is vulnerable given his comments about the war, especially the "Putin is a genius" line. As for DeSantis, he has managed to pick himself another culture war fight with Disney that is winning him kudos amongst the GOP base.

    2. French Presidential election - sell Macron, buy Le Pen. There has been a lot of talk on here that the French would never vote for the "fascist" Le Pen. However, the world has changed and electorates are likely to shift to politicians who display some backbone. Macron is not that person. I don't think it's a coincidence that his poll ratings have slipped in tandem with his increasingly desperate calls to Putin. He looks like a weakling and someone who is ignored, and the French like to think their Presidents have some inner strength.

    I see De Santis called Putin an '“authoritarian gas station attendant with some legacy nuclear weapons”
    https://www.politico.com/newsletters/florida-playbook/2022/03/01/desantis-take-a-position-on-russia-00012658
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Could there come a point when the Belorussian army turns on Lukashenko? Rumour has it that there would have been a mutiny if they were forced to invade - perhaps you can argue that there already has been if that is the case!

    It does open up the opportunity to deal with problems like Transnistria and South Ossetia too.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,540
    IshmaelZ said:

    der Narzissmus der kleinen Differenzen

    Nobody cares.
    Clueless.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Carnyx said:

    That is an astonishing misinterpretation of Scottish history from the Reformation to 1690. But perhaps "Our Island Story" doesn't bother with such details.

    In any case, perhaps you would like to explain how the Pope has power in Scotland? Maybe give us some links to your Orange Order chums?
    Perhaps some suspicious calls, cards against Rangers via secret Jesuit referees?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Like, cogent analysis, albeit don't fully agree though certainly could play out just this way.
    Cheers @SeaShantyIrish2 and hope all is good. I think Trump is on a bit of a downward path now, his candidates don't seem to be gaining overwhelming traction.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    edited April 2022
    Carnyx said:

    That is an astonishing misinterpretation of Scottish history from the Reformation to 1690. But perhaps "Our Island Story" doesn't bother with such details.

    In any case, perhaps you would like to explain how the Pope has power in Scotland? Maybe give us some links to your Orange Order chums?
    No it isn't, see Mary Queen of Scots or the Jacobite rebellion, fuelled by Roman Catholicism and with the support of the Vatican.

    Or indeed Celtic FC, still very much a club of Roman Catholic heritage. Roman Catholic voters deserting Labour have also been crucial to the rise of the SNP
    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/14886604.poll-shows-huge-swing-to-snp-among-catholics/

    Scotland only legalised homosexuality in 1980 too, 13 years after England.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Ive been thinking again about that leaked number of Russian dead:

    https://twitter.com/AvakovArsen/status/1510185195756007425?s=20&t=NmAoqvhHmZNgMdRvtkeZ7A

    Russian Army: 17,549
    Mercenaries:: 5,366
    Total: 22,915

    If accurate that's over 1/3 of the US losses in Vietnam in less that 1% of the time.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    On the second point I very much agree with you tactically. By which I mean that it is going to look quite close and the markets often favour the more right wing candidate. Though I think on the day Macron may do a bit better than expected. So I have backed Le Pen hugely with rhe hope to trade out between R1 and R2.
    I know what you mean, if it's close in R1, some may flock to Macron to ensure Le Pen doesn't win but I think Macron has p1ssed off enough people that the anti-Macron vote in France is probably as great, if not greater, than the anti-Le Pen vote
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,087
    HYUFD said:

    I see De Santis called Putin an '“authoritarian gas station attendant with some legacy nuclear weapons”
    https://www.politico.com/newsletters/florida-playbook/2022/03/01/desantis-take-a-position-on-russia-00012658
    That is highly offensive to the gas station attendants I have encountered.

    Some of them are a bit argumentative, but I struggle to recall one who committed war crimes, light recreational genocide and crimes against interior decorating like this

    image
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,487
    MrEd said:

    Getting away from the Russian trolls on here, two betting tips out of the crisis:

    1. GOP POTUS nomination 2024: Sell Trump, buy DeSantis - my personal view is that what has happened in the Ukraine is going to be the thing that turns the GOP base against Trump. Not hugely so but enough to let other contenders feel this is not a suicide mission and to make their move. Plus Trump is vulnerable given his comments about the war, especially the "Putin is a genius" line. As for DeSantis, he has managed to pick himself another culture war fight with Disney that is winning him kudos amongst the GOP base.

    2. French Presidential election - sell Macron, buy Le Pen. There has been a lot of talk on here that the French would never vote for the "fascist" Le Pen. However, the world has changed and electorates are likely to shift to politicians who display some backbone. Macron is not that person. I don't think it's a coincidence that his poll ratings have slipped in tandem with his increasingly desperate calls to Putin. He looks like a weakling and someone who is ignored, and the French like to think their Presidents have some inner strength.

    I do love your predictions, particularly the long odds ones. Point 1 seems very logical. Not so sure about 2 but that might be my bias of not wanting it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,132

    I'm thinking no member of the security council could veto a peace-keeping force.

    If ever there was a need for a UN peace keeping force, it is Ukraine.
    Peace keeping forces are not peace making forces. The protagonists have to agree first.

    I am all for an honest investigation of events in #Bucha and similar recaptured towns by independent observers, probably best from experienced war crimes investigators. I don't think Ukraine has anything to fear from this, and investigators on the ground ASAP will help with necessary war crimes trials
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    IshmaelZ said:

    Why not?
    The use of a nuclear weapon in the Donbass would be met in kind by the United States. Probably initially on a remote military base, a submarine or naval base perhaps. But it’s hard to second guess the target from the outside. Whatever, we’d be firmly in coup territory after that exchange of fire.

    Chemical weapons - my gut is that it would draw Nato countries into far more direct intervention than we’ve seen. No reason I can see why we wouldnt see a volley of cruise missiles taking out every Russian formation in the Donbass. Maybe they’d paint a blue and yellow flag on them, maybe they wouldn’t bother. And as our Putinista troll has just said, the loss of Donbass would be unsurvivable for Putin.

    His best chance of dying in his bed from whatever is afflicting him, is a grinding stalemate, not escalating in a way that is unwinnable for him.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    On Topic - Re: Santa Monica, note that one notable resident in early 20th century was Will Rogers. The man who famously (and correctly) said, "I belong to no organized political party - I'm a Democrat".

    Rogers was incredibly popular as cowboy entertainer, newspaper columnists and movie star. He received semi-serious votes for President at several Democratic National Conventions.

    So what is the Rishi Sunak - Will Rogers connection? Beyond the Santa Monica pier, that is?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,132
    MrEd said:

    I know what you mean, if it's close in R1, some may flock to Macron to ensure Le Pen doesn't win but I think Macron has p1ssed off enough people that the anti-Macron vote in France is probably as great, if not greater, than the anti-Le Pen vote
    I have backed Le Pen quite heavily. Not least because it may well work as a trading bet when it comes to the second round as the odds will likely shorten.

    I agree Trump is toast. Even the Republicans areng that stupid, but maybe lay him rather than back Desantis, as someone else may emerge. Primaries do that some cycles.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MattW said:

    Clueless.
    Sure. God bothering is deffo still mainstream because everyone you know is a god botherer.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Could there come a point when the Belorussian army turns on Lukashenko? Rumour has it that there would have been a mutiny if they were forced to invade - perhaps you can argue that there already has been if that is the case!

    It does open up the opportunity to deal with problems like Transnistria and South Ossetia too.

    I think that the Belorussian army would have mutated or defected n mass if sent in to Ukraine and that's the only reason they where not sent. it could still happen when the Russian troops redeploy, but I suspect now the prospect of being sent to war that you disagree with is off the table, that people will not what to put there heads above the parapet.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,087
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-would-like-more-us-troops-europe-says-ruling-party-boss-2022-04-03/

    "Kaczynski also said that Poland would be "open" to having nuclear weapons stationed in the country but that this was not something currently under consideration."
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    MrEd said:

    Cheers @SeaShantyIrish2 and hope all is good. I think Trump is on a bit of a downward path now, his candidates don't seem to be gaining overwhelming traction.
    Am personally allergic to thinking that 45 is down, let alone out, until we have more, and more solid, evidence. Such as the 2022 primaries, special elections & elections may provide. Though reckon that will be a mixed picture.

    Also not all that sure if DeSantis has staying power past 2022. Certainly he has to beat Charlie Criss for Gov, and more than by a small margin, to reaffirm his continued "availablity" as they used to say look ahead to 2024.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,673

    Do we know who those 16 were?
    Only 4, I think - the obvious suspects, none of whom receive our aid. The abstentions were more significant, notably China and India.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/un-russia-vote-full-voting-breakdown-north-korea-syria-back-putin-ukraine-invasion-1494907?msclkid=fa6c240eb38e11ec8c0e804f3e7554a0
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    BigRich said:

    I think that the Belorussian army would have mutated or defected n mass if sent in to Ukraine and that's the only reason they where not sent. it could still happen when the Russian troops redeploy, but I suspect now the prospect of being sent to war that you disagree with is off the table, that people will not what to put there heads above the parapet.
    Perhaps. But I wouldn’t rule out the nice men from Langley dropping in with some briefcases full of incentives.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Most obvious (albeit specious) Rishi-Rogers connection - both of Indian heritage
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,087
    PaulD said:

    Rigid thinking is not good kinabalu...you may even learn something from Hitchens
    If we are going drive Russia back to the stone age..... perhaps a monumental order from @Leon is the next NATO move?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    Exclusive:

    The Government's former ethics chief Helen MacNamara has been fined over a ‘raucous’ Cabinet Office event during lockdown.

    Reporting with @evansma @Tony_Diver https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/04/03/governments-former-ethics-chief-helen-macnamara-fined-raucous/
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    Only 4, I think - the obvious suspects, none of whom receive our aid. The abstentions were more significant, notably China and India.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/un-russia-vote-full-voting-breakdown-north-korea-syria-back-putin-ukraine-invasion-1494907?msclkid=fa6c240eb38e11ec8c0e804f3e7554a0
    Yes it was corrected - apparently 12 didn't actually vote as opposed to registering an abstention.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,540
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sure. God bothering is deffo still mainstream because everyone you know is a god botherer.
    Just as clueless :smiley:
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,673
    edited April 2022

    Current seat projection:

    Fidesz–KDNP 134

    United for Hungary 57

    Our Homeland 8

    Depressing, isn't it (the Serbian election similarly)? But the opposition alliance always looked a bit Coalition of Chaos, with everyone from far left to far right, united only by not being Orban.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,132

    Most obvious (albeit specious) Rishi-Rogers connection - both of Indian heritage

    How!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,690
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sure. God bothering is deffo still mainstream because everyone you know is a god botherer.
    You're expending an awful lot of energy attacking something that 'nobody cares' about.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,540
    Small note.

    The two shootdowns (the Starstreak MI-24 heli and the Mig-35 (?) ), both seem to be in the very East of Ukr.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,087
    moonshine said:

    Perhaps. But I wouldn’t rule out the nice men from Langley dropping in with some briefcases full of incentives.
    Leg bags, leg bags....

    Another great British invention, IIRC
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    💥 🍷 NEW: The Government’s former head of propriety and ethics has been fined over a “raucous” karaoke party in the Cabinet Office at which there was a drunken brawl.

    FPNs also issued over the No10 party in April 2021.

    (w @evansma & @benrileysmith)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/04/03/governments-former-ethics-chief-helen-macnamara-fined-raucous/
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,223
    BigRich said:

    I think that the Belorussian army would have mutated or defected n mass if sent in to Ukraine and that's the only reason they where not sent. it could still happen when the Russian troops redeploy, but I suspect now the prospect of being sent to war that you disagree with is off the table, that people will not what to put there heads above the parapet.
    If they’d been part of the bunch of lads digging trenches around Chernobyl they could well have mutated.

    Sorry, couldn’t resist!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    File under 'you couldn't make it up'.

    NEW: The Government’s former head of propriety and ethics has been fined over a “raucous” karaoke party in the Cabinet Office at which there was a drunken brawl.

    https://twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1510718992180256771
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,132
    HYUFD said:

    In the constitutional monarchies of Norway or Denmark the Lutheran church is the established church, in part also to still stop the Roman Catholic Church becoming again the main church in the nation. Even if the Lutheran church as an evangelical church does not believe in having a top down head so much. In the constitutional monarchy of Spain for example where there is no established church the Roman Catholic church is still by far the largest church, so the default head of the established church is the Pope
    So do you think the USA Christians defer to the Pope?

    It is bonkers to say Republicanism in the British sense puts the pope in charge.
This discussion has been closed.