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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Referendum Day Minus 8: Another tantalising wait for what looks set to be a sensational new poll
With the referendum now so close and the days running out the head of Survation, Damian Lyons Lowe, has added to the tension with the above Tweet about his Daily Record survey posted at about 2.30 am.
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Meanwhile Eck's consequence free fantasy land skips blithely along:
Independent Scotland won't pay back debt, Alex Salmond says
First Minister reportedly taunted the Westminster government over whether an independent Scotland should take on its share of the national debt, saying: “What are they going to do – invade?”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11086121/Independent-Scotland-wont-pay-back-debt-Alex-Salmond-says.html
No, but there's plenty else rUK could do......
Did anyone die? Was global peace threatened?
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014#2014
No 1.41
This five word quote from Damian Lyons Lowe head of Survation, complete with that all important exclamation mark, suggests to me at least that the results of their poll to be announced later today are likely to be nothing short of sensational. If I were to hazard a guess I would say something of the order of Yes 55% : Nos 45%, excluding don't knows.
As Mr Dickson pointed out last night, repeatedly, we appear to have reached the tipping point.
From a betting perspective and given the huge volume of money which is now being wagered on the outcome, it is surprising just how wide is the disparity between the odds on offer for a Yes vote.
While most bookies currently have this priced at at 2.75 decimal (7/4 in old money), the Betfair & Betdaq exchanges both have it at 3.23 net of their commission (almost 9/4), thereby representing a 27.4% greater return ..... remarkable! I've been keeping their machines busy overnight.
I'm starring to feel sorry for Shadsy.
QP ..... aarrgh!
The Daily Mail reports that:
"QPR broke rules in order to win promotion from Championship last season
Football League could prevent club from playing in their leagues if QPR fail to pay a fine of up to £40million
Rangers would be safe while they stay in the top flight, but relegation from the Premier League would see them banned
Football League chief executive Shaun Harvey says he hopes there can be a different resolution but admits 'nuclear option' is possible
Owner Tony Fernandes has pledged to fight any potential fine"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/27/scottish-independence-better-together-campaign-new-advert
Well since people are complaining that the NO ads are so bad they make them want to vote YES, why not try this strategy for once:
http://www.dilbert.com/strips/comic/2014-09-08/
"The rest of Britain might be panicking about the prospect of a “yes” vote in next week’s Scottish independence referendum, but it would come as a huge relief to the nation’s bookmakers.
Punters have gambled so much on a “no” vote that bookmakers are still trying to encourage them to bet on independence to balance their books, it has emerged.
That is the explanation behind the apparent generosity of the odds still being offered on Scottish voters opting for “yes” on Thursday week despite polls predicting the result on a knife edge.
There will be some massive losers if the Yes campaign wins. Ladbrokes are believed to have had £2.5 million invested with them on a “no” vote, and the industry figure could be as high as £10 million."
It was always a risk posting their final poll four weeks before polling day
but no one can accuse McARSE or any of the ARSE group of lacking self confidence.
What's perhaps even worse is that they are running around making all sorts of promises to "No" which either they have no authority to give without the wider consent of the UK electorate, or which are promises which are somewhat less than they suggest and which will therefore undermine the whole expectation that a "No" vote will put to bed the issue for the foreseeable future.
As you say the explanation for the current odds is that the bookies are still trying to attract bets for "yes" to even up their book.
- If Scotland wins independence in next week's referendum the pro-Union campaign will reflect on a few bad judgements
a) Too negative (Better Together has won full marks for outlining what it is opposes but no marks for outlining what it supports)
b) Currency union presentation (Osborne)
c) Alistair Darling's weaknesses
d) Late summer surprise (NHS campaign chimed "intuitively" with Labour voters)
e) Poor timing (the Tory leadership overlooked their own toxicity on fiscal policy in Scotland)
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/09/scottish-independence-five-mistakes-better-together-campaign
With such a febrile political atmosphere about right now, evidenced by even the PM's position considered to be at risk, this is one market I'd be inclined to avoid.
I'd love to meet the shit-for-brains who was laying Yes at Betfair at 7.8 just three weeks ago. He/she has paid my household bills for me for 12 months. I owe them a hug.
- The prime minister insists he won't quit if the vote is yes, but he may not get to decide
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/09/david-cameron-yes-vote-choice
- Independence would carry the potential to galvanise progressive movements across the rest of the UK http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/09/yes-vote-in-scotland-most-dangerous-thing-of-all-hope
Just because you want something badly, does not mean that it's workable.
- We hit the streets of Scotland's biggest cities and find Better Together's 12-point home rule plan is too little, too late to change most people's minds.
“It is ridiculous that they are coming up with this stuff at this stage of the game, I can remember when Alex Salmond was wanting Devo-Max on the ballot paper and Westminster said no."
“If there have been new powers offered I think it would be worth at least looking at but it does seem like something that has put together at the last minute.”
“If this announcement had been made a couple of months ago, rather than after the YouGov poll which showed ‘Yes’ in the lead, then it might have had some persuasive effect."
“I think Cameron, Clegg and Milliband should have done so much more so much sooner.”
“I want a Scottish based government in total charge of this country’s affairs – not a parliament in London. Gordon Brown’s a politician so can we believe anything he says? It’s far too little too late and stinks of desperation.”
"I did wonder why it took the No campaign this long to wheel out this announcement.”
“Gordon Brown’s announcement is down to panic. If they were going to offer Devo Max it would have been on the ballot. It’s absolutely them hitting the panic button.”
“It’s totally too late. Postal votes are already in so what is the point of it? It’s desperation."
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independence-referendum-voters-not-convinced-4191712?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Tally-ho.
If more devolution is forced upon Wales, I can only imagine that will involve a need to raise its own funds. For various reasons, the gap between what is raised in tax and spent by government in Wales is simply enormous. Similar story for Northern Ireland. If the English aren't interested in Britishness and first and foremost concerned with themselves in this time of austerity, will the rest of the Union be left to sink?
Victor Chandler in particular don't like punters who regularly take money off them. Understandable I suppose when you think about it.
And that's before one considers the effect associating with UKIP would have on potential floaters between Lab/LibDem and Conservative.
The problem is that UKIP is a grand coalition of the pi**ed off. You have traditional Tory voters such as SeanF, and Labour voters (I think) like iSam, along with na scattering of never-voters and LibDems. They are united by an anger at the state of the country and 'LibLabCon'.The idea that he latter would vote Conservative, or for an alliance with the Conservatives, is doubtful (although I guess iSam would).
Also, UKIP is, rightly or wrongly, thought of as being extreme. Many people are actively repelled by them, and that would include many centrist Conservative voters.
It's not as simple as adding the Tory and UKIP polling.
His final prediction was 40.5% yes, on a 80.5% turnout. That was up for Yes from his previous one but down on turnout.
My best financial outcome is if the McARSE is correct, but I did cover it with other bets so I am in profit on any outcome short of 55% Yes.
But...ultimately the joke is on them.
Scotland looks to be in deep trouble now. The mood in England is very clearly rapidly becoming a firm 'screw you then'. The negotiations will be awful - and Scotland will emerge into the world with its largest customer and the country whose money it will use being very very pissed off. If they are foolish enough to stick to the debt share threat then England may become outright hostile in other ways. The actual separation will cause huge instability, costs and resentments across the whole UK. The political dynamic in England will certainly be to ensure that Scotland bears the brunt of that. Generosity and neighbourly cheer will be in terminally short supply. The sensible half of Scotland must be in deep deep despair.
There is increasing hubris in the Yes camp. The analogy with Kinnocks Sheffield rally is not a bad one.
Had you listened to the few voices in the wilderness instead of mocking us you would have known what was going to happen.
Also given the widespread reports of intimidatory tactics in the press the last few days I wouldn't be surprised if people who will vote NO will be reluctant to admit this to pollsters.
Mind you, it's hard to see the arrival of the Cleggeroniband show north of the Wall as being anything other than good for Malc's friends. If he has any.
Made themselves look ridiculous!
There will be merriment aplenty with the 3 wise monkeys arriving for a day in the wilds. They will be like fish out of water.
Is it extreme to want the UK government to govern for the British people and not be in thrall to EU bureaucrats from umpteen nations who couldn't give a damn about our welfare?
Is it extreme to want us to guard our borders as a sovereign nation?
Is it extreme to want a government to think of the indigenous peoples of our island first?
Is it extreme to want controlled immigration?
No, to all the above.
twitter.com/BerthanPete/status/509454629277814786/photo/1
twitter.com/neilwilson443/status/509452042411458560/photo/1
What is your prediction for the survation poll?
I'm going to go Y46/N45/DK9
It has dawned on me why I am so 'meh' about this whole thing: I'm not a unionist and never have been. I can't see the point of it. Cobbling together disparate peoples doesn't work in the EU, and I can't see why it should work in the British Isles. With a bit of luck we might finally give the boot to the nonsense of Northern Ireland being joined to us. As for the Welsh? I can see some sort of rationale for staying as a collective there.
For the Conservatives this will ultimately be great news. They can rid themselves of a chunk of Labour heartland and cash-in on the English nationalism.
The biggest headache I can see after 'Yes' would come with GE2015. If we think the West Lothian question is serious now, it is going to be serious next year: why should Scotland have any say in Westminster's make up if they vote for Independence?
Scraping the barrel there!
http://www.scottish-at-heart.com/flag-of-scotland.html
And yes, I'd say the term 'indigenous' in that context is extreme. How do you define it? Would it include (say) my wife?
If you cannot see why such language repels people, then there's little hope for you.
twitter.com/tarrybreeks/status/509469591517802497/photo/1
You are (presumably) advocating a pre-election Tory-UKIP deal/pact/alliance (I'm not sure). Which is what i'm saying is utterly unworkable and undemocratic (and ridiculous considering the Tory previous fundamental rejection of AV for which this would be a poor substitute).
No doubt if there is a General Election and the Tories have a choice between a stable coalition with the LibDems and one with UKIP, they might prefer the latter. But that would require UKIP getting significantly more seats than they are likely to come close to on current polling (or even a signficant increase on current polling). They will just rack up loads of votes in seats where it won't be enough, whilst having a influence at the margins on Tory-Lab-Lib contests.
First, I don't know your wife, pleasant as she may be.
Secondly, I mentioned indigenous peoples - in the plural.
If such language repels you, you are indeed a sad case of an indoctrinated lefty.
You see how I can focus on what really matters?
I suppose if Cameron loses the United Kingdom after 300 years it doesn't look great in one light, but in another he has allowed the people of Scotland to decide their fate and that's quite a good show really.
I still cannot see why he should resign. If he can get his antediluvian backbenchers to get over themselves and move on, he will be fine. I'm beginning to hope earnestly that the Scots do vote Yes. Unionism is all its forms, whether in the UK or EU, has probably had its day.
I also don't think a Turkish immigrant can be counted in any reasonable definition of 'indigenous' wrt to the UK.
So go on, tell me how you would put indigenous people first over her?
Incidentally, your rant on the last thread and the one from viewcode were genuinely impressive - the sort of OTT pieces which aren't just froth and spittle but actually make people who disagree with you think, "Hmm, maybe he's got something."
Wouldn't UKEWNI just say "our way or the highway" until Salmond agrees? We could drag this out for years.
I have never said UKIP are extreme (or racist for that matter).
I have said that UKIP have the wrong answers to the wrong questions. I also believe them to be a wolf in sheeps clothing to the WWC voters, and run by a pub bore, alternately Blimpish and Pooteresque.
I do not like them or their politics, but I have never called them extreme!
My daughter was out in the west end of Dundee last night and had the best results for no she has had to date. It is probably one of the best areas in Dundee for No so it would be a mistake to read too much into it but people were more motivated and frankly anxious.
"The Conservative MP Nicola Blackwood said the committee had heard evidence in private from the Home Office researcher that her 2002 report had been greeted with hostility by South Yorkshire police. She said they had heard evidence that the researcher had been contacted by two officers who threatened to pass her name to the groomers in Rotherham and she had been left in fear of her life."
Have we had any response from Theresa May about this ?
He also outlined some perfectly sensible proposals for EVEL and further devolution to S/W/NI in the event of a No.
... I fear with the arrival of the party leaders today there is more potential for such a moment on the No side...
What odds Cameron dropping the saltire whilst Miliband looks on eating a bacon sandwich and Clegg screams "We're aaalright!"?
The danger with the current panic in the No camp is that many of those who ultimately swing back may just come to the conclusion that it is too late, Scotland is gone, and they might as well be on the winning side.
He is clearly still trying to atone for past disloyalty.
Salmond is a useless politician. Useless and dangerous. He has a genius for winning the argument. But his argment is a lie. Look back in ten years after a YES and see that he may have ruined his country. Was Blair a politician genius or a total gimp who gave us 13 years of illegal war, financial ruin and EU surrender? Was Hitler an election winning guru? (yes he was - a political genius of an order his contemporaries had no match for - and what a historically awful human being he was too.)
Once we leave the EU we can resume our eternal wars against the Frenchies and the Scots, and all that was old will be new again. Cry God for Harry, England, and Saint George!
The first action should be to pass a Interim Devolution Act.
Essentially every power that is not strictly needed at the UK level (eg defence, fco) would be devolved to Holyrood. SMPs are only allowed to vote on non-devolved matters, and not on confidence or money bills.
After GE15, the SMPs should not be elected, but Holyrood should appoint a number of temporary reprentatives, in proportion to the MSP parties, until i-day.
My own experience is that there have been some areas which have been very strongly yes but most areas have been pretty close one way or the other. I was seeing that before the polls indicated the result was close so it may well be that the polls have just caught up with the reality on the ground rather than picking up any sensational change. Yougov, in particular, have made something of an arse of themselves in this campaign.
What I and members of my family have been picking up is that the no vote is more motivated and determined in recent times. I think a couple of months ago there were a lot of people who weren't that bothered about voting because the result was a foregone conclusion. That, to put it mildly, is no longer the case.
I have also noted a massive advantage for no in those who have already voted but I suspect this is a result of demographics (mainly older voters) than any indication of the final result.