Pollsters tend to compare with their own previous poll rather than promote their rivals so I suspect figures similar to YouGov which would indeed mark a dramatic turnaround for Survation.
In the game of competitive fear-mongering, the yes campaign is winning when it creates a feeling of equivalent risk everywhere, so that voters are made dizzy with numbers, their eyes glazing over at another data-laden argument about economics and institutions. Then the advantage goes to the campaign with romance on its side. Because if there are mistakes to be made either way, it feels right to take the path of indigenously Scottish mistakes.
Pollsters tend to compare with their own previous poll rather than promote their rivals so I suspect figures similar to YouGov which would indeed mark a dramatic turnaround for Survation.
Perhaps but eqaully the Survation press release specifically mentions their rivals in its first line.
For democracy I feel that all these polls are are like spirits from Pandora. They are crystal bollocks. Once unleashed they appear to be uncontainable. They drive hysteria.
Pollsters tend to compare with their own previous poll rather than promote their rivals so I suspect figures similar to YouGov which would indeed mark a dramatic turnaround for Survation.
Precisely. It will be a big Yes lead. The game is up for No. This is one issue I really hoped to be wrong about. But sadly I have called it right.
In the game of competitive fear-mongering, the yes campaign is winning when it creates a feeling of equivalent risk everywhere, so that voters are made dizzy with numbers, their eyes glazing over at another data-laden argument about economics and institutions. Then the advantage goes to the campaign with romance on its side. Because if there are mistakes to be made either way, it feels right to take the path of indigenously Scottish mistakes.
Mr. G, as an individual, no. But as part of the 55 million or so electorate in England one suspects politicians who enjoy the thought of being elected might pay us attention.
If Osborne u-turned on currency union it would be almost the only realistic thing that would stop me voting Conservative (against Balls).
Mr. Eagles, I quite agree about the 'sovereign will' line.
The key weakness of the Yes campaign is Salmond. He has become the Yes Campaign and the No should target him. Enough people don't trust or like him. When I mentioned this to the Yes voter he then started to waver. Would he go against Labour and vote Salmond. He went away to think about that.
Yeah, that's really been the No campaign's failing, not mentioning Salmond enough. If only they'd done it a bit more, they wouldn't have lost a 30 pt lead in a year.
Your Indy predictions & insights on here have been some of the most hilariously half baked around; considering some of the competition, that's some going.
To be fair he was playing his flute whilst posting
And the £ likely to plunge again tomorrow along with Scottish shares, if another clear Yes lead, if the Scots plunge us back into recession through all this I don't know if the English will ever forgive them
U turn will be with us soon, CU here we come
Won't happen. You can use it, but there won't be a lender of last resort.
Incidentally, do you realise where all the Scottish notes are printed?
This will depend on which bank issues the notes. The Royal Bank of Scotland and the Bank of Scotland have both had notes printed by De La Rue based in Basingstoke, Hampshire. De La Rue are a printing company which specialises in printing currency. They claim to offer banknote technology for over 150 world currencies and have even printed Euro banknotes for several Eurozone countries.
When the Survation boss describes his poll as "quite something" what does he mean? I've been pondering that for hours.
The same as YouGov
Better for YES than YouGov
Better for NO than YouGov
Any thoughts?
I've read as a swing from Yes to No.
Yes, that'd be counterintuitive to what other pollsters are currently showing and the current media narrative, and would, therefore, be 'quiet something'.
Either way, no one really knows. And I can't stay around here all day trying to read too much into two words on a tweet.
I instinctively mistrust nationalism - most nationalist movements play on convincing people that all their problems are caused by someone else. UKIP and SNP are both fall into this category, one scapegoats the EU, the other scapegoats the rUK.
Blaming someone else for your problems then often spills over into hatred and racism. Much as I would regret seeing the union split I would relish watching Salmond deliver over the next decade when the prop of blaming someone else for all your problems is removed.
Ironically, if he wins, I think there is a fair chance Salmond would rapidly become the most hated figure in Scotland.
Given that most of UKIP's voters' top concern is the level of immigration to the UK, it's perfectly reasonable to blame the EU for uncontrolled immigration, because we can't do anything about that 45% of it. It's not scapegoating when it's accurate.
Doesn't alter the fact that UKIP's main mantra is that everything is the fault of the EU and if we got out we'd all be living in 1950's England again and milk and honey would flow endlessly
No, it's not. You just need to look at UKIP supporters on here like myself, Sean Fear and Richard Tyndall. We get into the nuts and bolts of a conversation. Most of the pro-EU supporters just bang on about the coming of the four horsemen of the apocalypse should we leave. Richard Nabavi is the one honourable exception. Also the EU debates - poll results afterwards showed that viewers felt that Farage had the better actual arguments.
And the £ likely to plunge again tomorrow along with Scottish shares, if another clear Yes lead, if the Scots plunge us back into recession through all this I don't know if the English will ever forgive them
U turn will be with us soon, CU here we come
Won't happen. You can use it, but there won't be a lender of last resort.
Incidentally, do you realise where all the Scottish notes are printed?
This will depend on which bank issues the notes. The Royal Bank of Scotland and the Bank of Scotland have both had notes printed by De La Rue based in Basingstoke, Hampshire. De La Rue are a printing company which specialises in printing currency. They claim to offer banknote technology for over 150 world currencies and have even printed Euro banknotes for several Eurozone countries.
Indeed. They buy the notes from England - always amuses me.
In the game of competitive fear-mongering, the yes campaign is winning when it creates a feeling of equivalent risk everywhere, so that voters are made dizzy with numbers, their eyes glazing over at another data-laden argument about economics and institutions. Then the advantage goes to the campaign with romance on its side. Because if there are mistakes to be made either way, it feels right to take the path of indigenously Scottish mistakes.
It is very simple , do you want decisions made in Scotland or by some sleazy turd in Westminster. Not hard to work out.
A beautifully concise summary of how a currency union would work! Come out for the Scottish pound, you know that you want to...
Fox, I would not be against that but it will not be my decision. For sure there will be a deal for some period of time to suit both parties. The decision will be on how long they agree to share for, it is inconceivable that it can be done any other way. They may give it a fancy shiny name but a deal it will be.
Assuming "yes", there will be some short term market reaction, but the fundamental economics are all in England's favour. Most major businesses will relocate their HQ's to England, thus providing England most of the current tax raising base over a smaller population. No need to subsidise Scotland anymore, so another c£20bn a year back in the tills. England remains worlds 6th largest economy without Scottish turnover.
Hey and all our kids will be able to go to Scottish Uni's for free just like the rest of Europe's do!
Still cannot see the problem with a split.
Yeah, but you've been repeatedly telling us it's going to be 60-40 No, Nostradamus.
No predictions from me, must be some other sad person.
Whatever happens in the final vote, in the 2015 election, any politician in England, that isn't pro English is going to suffer big time.
Cameron may resign, but labour have the real problems with seats going & half their leadership (although only Jim Murphy's worth anything)
When the Survation boss describes his poll as "quite something" what does he mean? I've been pondering that for hours.
The same as YouGov
Better for YES than YouGov
Better for NO than YouGov
Any thoughts?
I've read as a swing from Yes to No.
Yes, that'd be counterintuitive to what other pollsters are currently showing and the current media narrative, and would, therefore, be 'quiet something'.
Either way, no one really knows. And I can't stay around here all day trying to read too much into two words on a tweet.
And the £ likely to plunge again tomorrow along with Scottish shares, if another clear Yes lead, if the Scots plunge us back into recession through all this I don't know if the English will ever forgive them
U turn will be with us soon, CU here we come
Won't happen. You can use it, but there won't be a lender of last resort.
Incidentally, do you realise where all the Scottish notes are printed?
This will depend on which bank issues the notes. The Royal Bank of Scotland and the Bank of Scotland have both had notes printed by De La Rue based in Basingstoke, Hampshire. De La Rue are a printing company which specialises in printing currency. They claim to offer banknote technology for over 150 world currencies and have even printed Euro banknotes for several Eurozone countries.
Indeed. They buy the notes from England - always amuses me.
Be stupid to have printing presses for such small volumes.
If Osborne u-turned on currency union it would be almost the only realistic thing that would stop me voting Conservative (against Balls).
England will be the defining issue of GE 2015. It just will. Parties that stand behind England's interests will reap the reward and those that don't won't. So issues like:
Hardball with Scotland on currency, debt, etc EVFEL (incl NI / Wales in a Devolved Matters Voting Act) Apply the law properly (Rotherham etc) Immigration - actually do something
Labour clearly on the wrong side of England on almost every issue. Dave and the Tories - hard to fathom (and even harder to fathom why that is the case!). LibDems - who cares? UKIP more naturally on the right side of things.
In the game of competitive fear-mongering, the yes campaign is winning when it creates a feeling of equivalent risk everywhere, so that voters are made dizzy with numbers, their eyes glazing over at another data-laden argument about economics and institutions. Then the advantage goes to the campaign with romance on its side. Because if there are mistakes to be made either way, it feels right to take the path of indigenously Scottish mistakes.
It is very simple , do you want decisions made in Scotland or by some sleazy turd in Westminster. Not hard to work out.</blockquote
When you use such terminology to describe us don't expect any u-turns on Currency Union. And remember most of the recent politicians you appear to reference are actually Scottish.
'In view of the uncertainty around Scotland's constitutional future, we have put in place precautionary measures which would help enable us to provide customers with continuity. This includes planning for new regulated companies in England to which we could transfer parts of our business if there was a need to do so.'
Note this line -
'Standard Life has a long history in Scotland – a heritage of which we are very proud – and we hope that this continues but our responsibility is to protect the interests of our customers, our shareholders, our people and other stakeholders in our business.'
Small indirect indication: RedBox (the e-Times briefing) did a snap YouGov poll (which appears to beon what people thought of Brown's DevoMax plan. 32% thought it likely to help No, 14% thought it would hurt No. Scots were reportedly strongly in favour (no figures given) though in England only Londoners were and nationally it was an even split.
Morning all. I don't doubt that there will be turmoil in the case of a 'Yes' vote. However, I do think it's yet another example of what a great nation we are. We are prepared to let the Scots go their own way, in a reasonably civilised fashion. What other country would be so saintly?
There have been lots of examples: Czechoslovakia is a recent one; the Baltic States were able to split off too without any very serious hassle despite genuinely deep reciprocal dislike among many on both sides; Denmark/Norway, etc. The Balkans were an aberration.
Although the Norwegians *still* don't like the Swedes...
The feeling is reciprocated. A Swede once asked me if I knew how to identify a Norwegian. He told me to imagine a big plate of raw prawns, if there is a prawn waving its legs madly and shouting, "I am a lobster" that is a Norwegian.
To be fair to Gordon Brown, his prediction that he had ended boom and bust was accurate, there was no more boom, only the largest bust since records began.
The FTSE 100 Index has moved from having been 15 points down an hour ago to now being 15 points up. Indicative perhaps of slightly more optimistic prospects for a No vote after several nervous days?
Was this not done under the guidance of our very own British Vishinsky? Not surprisingly I see he now wants to be the Labour MP for Holborn.
There are legitimate criticisms to be made of the law enacted by Parliament, which Sir Keir was appointed to enforce. Comparing a respected human rights lawyer of considerable ability and liberal instincts to the Soviet State Prosecutor at the Moscow show trials is preposterous.
I remember some Kippers saying it would be a snub for Cameron/The UK, and testament to Cameron's ineptness if we didn't get the Financial Services portfolio, what say you now?
I remember some Kippers saying it would be a snub for Cameron/The UK, and testament to Cameron's ineptness if we didn't get the Financial Services portfolio, what say you now?
I remember some Kippers saying it would be a snub for Cameron/The UK, and testament to Cameron's ineptness if we didn't get the Financial Services portfolio, what say you now?
I remember some Kippers saying it would be a snub for Cameron/The UK, and testament to Cameron's ineptness if we didn't get the Financial Services portfolio, what say you now?
'In view of the uncertainty around Scotland's constitutional future, we have put in place precautionary measures which would help enable us to provide customers with continuity. This includes planning for new regulated companies in England to which we could transfer parts of our business if there was a need to do so.'
Note this line -
'Standard Life has a long history in Scotland – a heritage of which we are very proud – and we hope that this continues but our responsibility is to protect the interests of our customers, our shareholders, our people and other stakeholders in our business.'
This transfer of our business could potentially include pensions, investments and other long-term savings held by UK customers to ensure:
All transactions with customers outside of Scotland continue to be in Sterling (money paid in and money paid out) All customers outside of Scotland continue to be part of the UK tax regime All customers outside of Scotland continue to be covered by existing consumer protection and regulatory arrangements e.g. the Financial Services Compensation Scheme and Financial Conduct Authority
So that must be about 90% of their business then....
Paddy Power have suspended their Next Cabinet Exit market. Last I looked Carmichael was odds-on FAV and I had maxxed out my stake with PP.
According to my box of tricks this market is still up with Alistair Carmichael on offer as the 5/6 favourite ..... maybe PP simply took it down overnight. With such a febrile political atmosphere about right now, evidenced by even the PM's position considered to be at risk, this is one market I'd be inclined to avoid.
PP would only allow me to stake about 18 quid. They are still pissed off with me for my huge wins at the Scottish GE in 2011. Victor Chandler lost so much cash to me that they promptly closed my entire account.
Your experience with these two firms precisely mirrors my own. Victor Chandler in particular don't like punters who regularly take money off them. Understandable I suppose when you think about it.
Indeed.
I brought up this VC issue at UK Polling Report later in 2011 and at least two other posters had identical experiences following their big wins at that Holyrood election. We even copied and pasted the VC letter closing our accounts and they were identical.
I wonder how many accounts VC closed following their 2011 catastrophe? They had prices of 50/1 on some of the SNP seat gains!
So Britain gets to protect the City. The EUP may veto his candidacy. They said as much yesterday I guess because they knew we would get it. I still think Internal Markets would have been better but this is still a decent win for the government.
I remember some Kippers saying it would be a snub for Cameron/The UK, and testament to Cameron's ineptness if we didn't get the Financial Services portfolio, what say you now?
Lord Hill has been appointed EU Commissioner for financial services. Decent economic portfolio from which to protect the City. No snub shock
It's certainly better than getting a minor energy position, but it's not one of the "big economic jobs" like internal market or economic affairs.
Given the importance of the City of London, and the envious eyes people have towards it, it's a bloody good appointment.
Oh come off it. It's a reasonable appointment, but it clearly wasn't one of the "big economic jobs" they were trying to get. Those were always listed as Economic and Monetary Affairs, the Internal Market, or, at a push, Competition.
I remember some Kippers saying it would be a snub for Cameron/The UK, and testament to Cameron's ineptness if we didn't get the Financial Services portfolio, what say you now?
Lord Hill has been appointed EU Commissioner for financial services. Decent economic portfolio from which to protect the City. No snub shock
That would be hilarious after all the wailing earlier in the week.
What would be even funnier would be if Parliament decided it didnt like a UK Commissioner overseeing the City (particularly with the bad blood over bankers' allowances presuming that would fall under his remit) and threatened to veto the Commission unless he was dropped from the post. The pbc servers might not be able to cope.
In the game of competitive fear-mongering, the yes campaign is winning when it creates a feeling of equivalent risk everywhere, so that voters are made dizzy with numbers, their eyes glazing over at another data-laden argument about economics and institutions. Then the advantage goes to the campaign with romance on its side. Because if there are mistakes to be made either way, it feels right to take the path of indigenously Scottish mistakes.
Paddy Power have suspended their Next Cabinet Exit market. Last I looked Carmichael was odds-on FAV and I had maxxed out my stake with PP.
According to my box of tricks this market is still up with Alistair Carmichael on offer as the 5/6 favourite ..... maybe PP simply took it down overnight. With such a febrile political atmosphere about right now, evidenced by even the PM's position considered to be at risk, this is one market I'd be inclined to avoid.
PP would only allow me to stake about 18 quid. They are still pissed off with me for my huge wins at the Scottish GE in 2011. Victor Chandler lost so much cash to me that they promptly closed my entire account.
Your experience with these two firms precisely mirrors my own. Victor Chandler in particular don't like punters who regularly take money off them. Understandable I suppose when you think about it.
Indeed.
I brought up this VC issue at UK Polling Report later in 2011 and at least two other posters had identical experiences following their big wins at that Holyrood election. We even copied and pasted the VC letter closing our accounts and they were identical.
I wonder how many accounts VC closed following their 2011 catastrophe? They had prices of 50/1 on some of the SNP seat gains!
They closed lots of PBers accounts just prior to the 2010 General Election
Paddy Power have suspended their Next Cabinet Exit market. Last I looked Carmichael was odds-on FAV and I had maxxed out my stake with PP.
According to my box of tricks this market is still up with Alistair Carmichael on offer as the 5/6 favourite ..... maybe PP simply took it down overnight. With such a febrile political atmosphere about right now, evidenced by even the PM's position considered to be at risk, this is one market I'd be inclined to avoid.
PP would only allow me to stake about 18 quid. They are still pissed off with me for my huge wins at the Scottish GE in 2011. Victor Chandler lost so much cash to me that they promptly closed my entire account.
Your experience with these two firms precisely mirrors my own. Victor Chandler in particular don't like punters who regularly take money off them. Understandable I suppose when you think about it.
Indeed.
I brought up this VC issue at UK Polling Report later in 2011 and at least two other posters had identical experiences following their big wins at that Holyrood election. We even copied and pasted the VC letter closing our accounts and they were identical.
I wonder how many accounts VC closed following their 2011 catastrophe? They had prices of 50/1 on some of the SNP seat gains!
Britain would like to secure one of the main economic portfolios, such as trade, last held in 2004-09, competition, or the internal market and services.
Britain would like to secure one of the main economic portfolios, such as trade, last held in 2004-09, competition, or the internal market and services.
So he fails to get what he wants, and the Tories declare victory anyway. It's embarrassing.
Or, as the FT called it just now:
"Britain secured its most prized job in Europe on Wednesday as Jean-Claude Juncker stunned Brussels by tapping Lord Hill, a Tory peer plucked from obscurity, to oversee the bloc’s financial services sector."
Not if they're thinking of applying for membership of the EU.
What would Nigel Farage's hero, Mr Putin, do about Scotland?
Send aid to English-accented workers in Aberdeen and the Shetlands, followed by a local referendum on re-joining England. That way, England gets all the oil back! Deny all involvement and if Salmond objects, remind him, a la Putin, we could conquer the Highlands in a fortnight if we wanted.
Paddy Power have suspended their Next Cabinet Exit market. Last I looked Carmichael was odds-on FAV and I had maxxed out my stake with PP.
According to my box of tricks this market is still up with Alistair Carmichael on offer as the 5/6 favourite ..... maybe PP simply took it down overnight. With such a febrile political atmosphere about right now, evidenced by even the PM's position considered to be at risk, this is one market I'd be inclined to avoid.
PP would only allow me to stake about 18 quid. They are still pissed off with me for my huge wins at the Scottish GE in 2011. Victor Chandler lost so much cash to me that they promptly closed my entire account.
Your experience with these two firms precisely mirrors my own. Victor Chandler in particular don't like punters who regularly take money off them. Understandable I suppose when you think about it.
Indeed.
I brought up this VC issue at UK Polling Report later in 2011 and at least two other posters had identical experiences following their big wins at that Holyrood election. We even copied and pasted the VC letter closing our accounts and they were identical.
I wonder how many accounts VC closed following their 2011 catastrophe? They had prices of 50/1 on some of the SNP seat gains!
They closed lots of PBers accounts just prior to the 2010 General Election
They waved me goodbye about 4 weeks AFTER the 2010 GE, seemingly after I'd placed several hundreds of pounds worth of bets with them on Labour doing far better at the following GE than their crazily generous odds suggested - so I've just sat back since waiting for a very fat pay day in the certain knowledge that they had no chance of recouping their past and future losses encountered on my account.
Britain would like to secure one of the main economic portfolios, such as trade, last held in 2004-09, competition, or the internal market and services.
Financial Services didnt exist as a portfolio before today, it was part of internal markets, the part of internal markets that the UK is particularly interested in. Noone really believed that the UK would ever be given the portfolio that looks after the City, it really is a coup to have gotten it.
Or, in Socrates speak, "everything the EU does is always a conspiracy against the UK. Everything."
Remarkably good news on Lord Hill getting the finance portfolio. As Robert S says, as a political unknown he was never going to get one of the most senior portfolios (many of the other commissioners are ex-PMs or ex-Finance Ministers), but this looks like Juncker trying to mend fences and respond to the UK's particular concerns,
@OliverCooper: EU Commissioners for financial services, competition, trade, and internal market have all gone to non-Euro countries. Good result for UK.
So he fails to get what he wants, and the Tories declare victory anyway. It's embarrassing.
Or, as the FT called it just now:
"Britain secured its most prized job in Europe on Wednesday as Jean-Claude Juncker stunned Brussels by tapping Lord Hill, a Tory peer plucked from obscurity, to oversee the bloc’s financial services sector."
Who wrote this the other day, when it was reported Lord Hill got the climate change gig?
Devastating for Cameron if true. He gets spat in the face with Juncker's appointment, and they don't even bother to give him a big job to make up for it. They haven't even decided on who they want as internal markets, but they have to decided to exclude the Brits. To make it worse, one of the big economic appointments goes to France! Clearly the EU just wants to screw us now and Juncker is getting his revenge.
The "we must stay in for influence" argument goes up in smoke if this goes through. Cameron must be fighting hard to overturn this.
Britain would like to secure one of the main economic portfolios, such as trade, last held in 2004-09, competition, or the internal market and services.
Financial Services didnt exist as a portfolio before today, it was part of internal markets, the part of internal markets that the UK is particularly interested in. Noone really believed that the UK would ever be given the portfolio that looks after the City, it really is a coup to have gotten it.
Or, in Socrates speak, "everything the EU does is always a conspiracy against the UK. Everything."
So has internal markets lost City oversight? If so then this is a big win for the PM.
So he fails to get what he wants, and the Tories declare victory anyway. It's embarrassing.
Or, as the FT called it just now:
"Britain secured its most prized job in Europe on Wednesday as Jean-Claude Juncker stunned Brussels by tapping Lord Hill, a Tory peer plucked from obscurity, to oversee the bloc’s financial services sector."
Who wrote this the other day, when it was reported Lord Hill got the climate change gig?
Devastating for Cameron if true. He gets spat in the face with Juncker's appointment, and they don't even bother to give him a big job to make up for it. They haven't even decided on who they want as internal markets, but they have to decided to exclude the Brits. To make it worse, one of the big economic appointments goes to France! Clearly the EU just wants to screw us now and Juncker is getting his revenge.
The "we must stay in for influence" argument goes up in smoke if this goes through. Cameron must be fighting hard to overturn this.
Last Lord Hill who went to Brussels carried on to Waterloo.
So he fails to get what he wants, and the Tories declare victory anyway. It's embarrassing.
Or, as the FT called it just now:
"Britain secured its most prized job in Europe on Wednesday as Jean-Claude Juncker stunned Brussels by tapping Lord Hill, a Tory peer plucked from obscurity, to oversee the bloc’s financial services sector."
Britain would like to secure one of the main economic portfolios, such as trade, last held in 2004-09, competition, or the internal market and services.
Financial Services didnt exist as a portfolio before today, it was part of internal markets, the part of internal markets that the UK is particularly interested in. Noone really believed that the UK would ever be given the portfolio that looks after the City, it really is a coup to have gotten it.
Or, in Socrates speak, "everything the EU does is always a conspiracy against the UK. Everything."
So has internal markets lost City oversight? If so then this is a big win for the PM.
The internal markets directorate will have two Commissioners - for financial services it will report to the UK Commissioner.
Britain would like to secure one of the main economic portfolios, such as trade, last held in 2004-09, competition, or the internal market and services.
Financial Services didnt exist as a portfolio before today, it was part of internal markets, the part of internal markets that the UK is particularly interested in. Noone really believed that the UK would ever be given the portfolio that looks after the City, it really is a coup to have gotten it.
Or, in Socrates speak, "everything the EU does is always a conspiracy against the UK. Everything."
So has internal markets lost City oversight? If so then this is a big win for the PM.
The internal markets directorate will have two Commissioners - for financial services it will report to the UK Commissioner.
So he fails to get what he wants, and the Tories declare victory anyway. It's embarrassing.
Or, as the FT called it just now:
"Britain secured its most prized job in Europe on Wednesday as Jean-Claude Juncker stunned Brussels by tapping Lord Hill, a Tory peer plucked from obscurity, to oversee the bloc’s financial services sector."
So he fails to get what he wants, and the Tories declare victory anyway. It's embarrassing.
Or, as the FT called it just now:
"Britain secured its most prized job in Europe on Wednesday as Jean-Claude Juncker stunned Brussels by tapping Lord Hill, a Tory peer plucked from obscurity, to oversee the bloc’s financial services sector."
Who wrote this the other day, when it was reported Lord Hill got the climate change gig?
Devastating for Cameron if true. He gets spat in the face with Juncker's appointment, and they don't even bother to give him a big job to make up for it. They haven't even decided on who they want as internal markets, but they have to decided to exclude the Brits. To make it worse, one of the big economic appointments goes to France! Clearly the EU just wants to screw us now and Juncker is getting his revenge.
The "we must stay in for influence" argument goes up in smoke if this goes through. Cameron must be fighting hard to overturn this.
Last Lord Hill who went to Brussels carried on to Waterloo.
I did. I don't see what your point was. I stand by every word.
Paddy Power have suspended their Next Cabinet Exit market. Last I looked Carmichael was odds-on FAV and I had maxxed out my stake with PP.
According to my box of tricks this market is still up with Alistair Carmichael on offer as the 5/6 favourite ..... maybe PP simply took it down overnight. With such a febrile political atmosphere about right now, evidenced by even the PM's position considered to be at risk, this is one market I'd be inclined to avoid.
PP would only allow me to stake about 18 quid. They are still pissed off with me for my huge wins at the Scottish GE in 2011. Victor Chandler lost so much cash to me that they promptly closed my entire account.
Your experience with these two firms precisely mirrors my own. Victor Chandler in particular don't like punters who regularly take money off them. Understandable I suppose when you think about it.
Indeed.
I brought up this VC issue at UK Polling Report later in 2011 and at least two other posters had identical experiences following their big wins at that Holyrood election. We even copied and pasted the VC letter closing our accounts and they were identical.
I wonder how many accounts VC closed following their 2011 catastrophe? They had prices of 50/1 on some of the SNP seat gains!
They closed lots of PBers accounts just prior to the 2010 General Election
They waved me goodbye about 4 weeks AFTER the 2010 GE, seemingly after I'd placed several hundreds of pounds worth of bets with them on Labour doing far better at the following GE than their crazily generous odds suggested - so I've just sat back since waiting for a very fat pay day in the certain knowledge that they had no chance of recouping their past and future losses encountered on my account.
Stan James had the best excuse for closing my account.
I was using it for arbitrage opportunities, which was in violation of their terms and conditions.
I instinctively mistrust nationalism - most nationalist movements play on convincing people that all their problems are caused by someone else. UKIP and SNP are both fall into this category, one scapegoats the EU, the other scapegoats the rUK.
Blaming someone else for your problems then often spills over into hatred and racism. Much as I would regret seeing the union split I would relish watching Salmond deliver over the next decade when the prop of blaming someone else for all your problems is removed.
Ironically, if he wins, I think there is a fair chance Salmond would rapidly become the most hated figure in Scotland.
Just read John Major's words in Times. Very accurate, not sure it is helpful to No campaign - but I am a YES supporter. Hits nail on head. "We should not forget that, throughout the 1980s and 1990s, Labour connived with nationalist opinion in demonising the Conservatives and, by implication, the English. They are doing it still, and have fed a divisive narrative that has bitten deep, ignoring the revolution in Scottish living standards brought about, in large part, by Conservative policies.
Britain would like to secure one of the main economic portfolios, such as trade, last held in 2004-09, competition, or the internal market and services.
Financial Services didnt exist as a portfolio before today, it was part of internal markets, the part of internal markets that the UK is particularly interested in. Noone really believed that the UK would ever be given the portfolio that looks after the City, it really is a coup to have gotten it.
Or, in Socrates speak, "everything the EU does is always a conspiracy against the UK. Everything."
So has internal markets lost City oversight? If so then this is a big win for the PM.
The internal markets directorate will have two Commissioners - for financial services it will report to the UK Commissioner.
Then it is a big win. Surprisingly big.
Let's see if the EUP now try and block it.
Conspiracy theorists will say it consolidates British acceptance of EU control of the City. Then they can give the job to someone else.
Britain would like to secure one of the main economic portfolios, such as trade, last held in 2004-09, competition, or the internal market and services.
Financial Services didnt exist as a portfolio before today, it was part of internal markets, the part of internal markets that the UK is particularly interested in. Noone really believed that the UK would ever be given the portfolio that looks after the City, it really is a coup to have gotten it.
Or, in Socrates speak, "everything the EU does is always a conspiracy against the UK. Everything."
So has internal markets lost City oversight? If so then this is a big win for the PM.
The internal markets directorate will have two Commissioners - for financial services it will report to the UK Commissioner.
Then it is a big win. Surprisingly big.
Let's see if the EUP now try and block it.
Useful chap to have in place during any post-Indy fall-out.
Comments
What an arrogant bunch you Nats are.
Was this not done under the guidance of our very own British Vishinsky? Not surprisingly I see he now wants to be the Labour MP for Holborn.
If Osborne u-turned on currency union it would be almost the only realistic thing that would stop me voting Conservative (against Balls).
Mr. Eagles, I quite agree about the 'sovereign will' line.
Porn, abusive texts, calls to sex lines on his council mobile
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/warning-over-councillor-called-premium-sex-lines-and-sent-abusive-texts-9719540.html
Either way, no one really knows. And I can't stay around here all day trying to read too much into two words on a tweet.
Work to do...
Let's see what the markets have already said about a currency union, we all know they've said Salmond is talking balls.
I'm sure he's got some legal advice about a currency union from the same place he got his advice about EU membership.
Whatever happens in the final vote, in the 2015 election, any politician in England, that isn't pro English is going to suffer big time.
Cameron may resign, but labour have the real problems with seats going & half their leadership (although only Jim Murphy's worth anything)
I spat out a whole mouthful of my tea: I haven't heard that one since I was 8 years old in the school playground.
Why do don't you go play with your dolls or sign on for JSA you big Jessie, because you might cry if you see my tetchy side.
Hardball with Scotland on currency, debt, etc
EVFEL (incl NI / Wales in a Devolved Matters Voting Act)
Apply the law properly (Rotherham etc)
Immigration - actually do something
Labour clearly on the wrong side of England on almost every issue. Dave and the Tories - hard to fathom (and even harder to fathom why that is the case!). LibDems - who cares? UKIP more naturally on the right side of things.
How many £millions would we guess will be moved today, from Scottish to English Custodians?
Standard Life to shortly put on website that will protect customers' interests in event of Scottish independence
Standard Life will provide detail of how non Scottish customers will continue to be dealt with in sterling & be part of UK tax regim
Is that when you ban people.
http://www.standardlife.com/utility/customer_statement-2.html
'In view of the uncertainty around Scotland's constitutional future, we have put in place precautionary measures which would help enable us to provide customers with continuity. This includes planning for new regulated companies in England to which we could transfer parts of our business if there was a need to do so.'
Note this line -
'Standard Life has a long history in Scotland – a heritage of which we are very proud – and we hope that this continues but our responsibility is to protect the interests of our customers, our shareholders, our people and other stakeholders in our business.'
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/government-has-broken-boom-bust-cycle-howlin-says-1.1923924
Patrick Wintour @patrickwintour 16s
Lord Hill has been appointed EU Commissioner for financial services. Decent economic portfolio from which to protect the City. No snub shock
Following our conversation on foreign housing yesterday, SeanT might like to commission the following house:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-magazine-monitor-29127057
Either to buy, or to use in a book as a villain's layer.
Although they missed a trick: it would be brilliant if the bottom floor was glass.
33/1
Economic Affairs was always going to go to a Eurozone member.
Standard Life says given uncertainty about Scotland's future it has contingency plans to transfer business to England "if a need to do so"
steve hawkes @steve_hawkes 1m
.."This transfer of our business could potentially include pensions, investments and other long-term savings held by UK customers"
steve hawkes @steve_hawkes · 54s
Standard Life ceo David Nish: "We have a long history in Scotland –but our responsibility is to protect the interests of our customers .."
All transactions with customers outside of Scotland continue to be in Sterling (money paid in and money paid out)
All customers outside of Scotland continue to be part of the UK tax regime
All customers outside of Scotland continue to be covered by existing consumer protection and regulatory arrangements e.g. the Financial Services Compensation Scheme and Financial Conduct Authority
So that must be about 90% of their business then....
I brought up this VC issue at UK Polling Report later in 2011 and at least two other posters had identical experiences following their big wins at that Holyrood election. We even copied and pasted the VC letter closing our accounts and they were identical.
I wonder how many accounts VC closed following their 2011 catastrophe? They had prices of 50/1 on some of the SNP seat gains!
What would be even funnier would be if Parliament decided it didnt like a UK Commissioner overseeing the City (particularly with the bad blood over bankers' allowances presuming that would fall under his remit) and threatened to veto the Commission unless he was dropped from the post. The pbc servers might not be able to cope.
As an aside, I have a real life Aunty like Lady Whiteadder, who actually called me a wicked child.
*Aunty in the Pakistani family sense.
Source 1: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10973293/David-Cameron-and-Jean-Claude-Juncker-greet-each-other-with-a-high-five.html
Source 2: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/15/lord-hill-cameron-uk-european-commissioner
Source 3: http://openeuropeblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/juncker-next-economic-and-monetary.html
So he fails to get what he wants, and the Tories declare victory anyway. It's embarrassing.
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/you-dont-have-to-be-hypocritical-coward.html
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/31/david-cameron-donald-tust-european-council
Finance not even mentioned.
I hope the buyer reads up on the history of London Bridge there:
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Arch
And all the excitement or Warnambool on a Saturday night, just an hour or two away...
(It seems that 4 of the 12 Apostles have fallen down too: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Twelve_Apostles,_Victoria
It may be better to rent than purchase this house!)
"Britain secured its most prized job in Europe on Wednesday as Jean-Claude Juncker stunned Brussels by tapping Lord Hill, a Tory peer plucked from obscurity, to oversee the bloc’s financial services sector."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1b6916ca-38d1-11e4-a53b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3CuHjtvzN
Links in with this article -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10656483/Standard-Life-warns-it-could-quit-an-independent-Scotland.html
They employ 5000 workers, north of the border.
"I was shouting for devolution when you were still in your school pants" Prezza tells heckler
Or, in Socrates speak, "everything the EU does is always a conspiracy against the UK. Everything."
Devastating for Cameron if true. He gets spat in the face with Juncker's appointment, and they don't even bother to give him a big job to make up for it. They haven't even decided on who they want as internal markets, but they have to decided to exclude the Brits. To make it worse, one of the big economic appointments goes to France! Clearly the EU just wants to screw us now and Juncker is getting his revenge.
The "we must stay in for influence" argument goes up in smoke if this goes through. Cameron must be fighting hard to overturn this.
Let's see if the EUP now try and block it.
I was using it for arbitrage opportunities, which was in violation of their terms and conditions.
"We should not forget that, throughout the 1980s and 1990s, Labour connived with nationalist opinion in demonising the Conservatives and, by implication, the English. They are doing it still, and have fed a divisive narrative that has bitten deep, ignoring the revolution in Scottish living standards brought about, in large part, by Conservative policies.
'England's dividend'.