The French election is getting very tight for Macron – politicalbetting.com
The French election is getting very tight for Macron – politicalbetting.com
The first round of voting in the French presidential election is just a week on Sunday. A total of 12 contenders will be on the ballot paper which decides which two go to the final runoff a fortnight later. In many ways this is a similar voting system for the Tory leadership in the UK when MPs vote to decide which two go forward to the membership.
Comments
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This doesn't look very tight? It looks like Macron is leading by about 10%, which is a lot, and if you're running an incumbent against a very well-known challenger you're unlikely to get a lot of late switchers.
I think it's easier to get an upset in the first round than the runoff.4 -
It's also worth noting that - last time around - Macron did massively better than the polls, and Le Pen meaningfully worse.edmundintokyo said:This doesn't look very tight? It looks like Macron is leading by about 10%, which is a lot, and if you're running an incumbent against a very well-known challenger you're unlikely to get a lot of late switchers.
I think it's easier to get an upset in the first round than the runoff.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election#:~:text=The 2017 French presidential election,won by a decisive margin.1 -
How much does Putin know about how badly he’s doing in Ukraine ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60936117
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?0 -
He´s going to be ki0
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Good analysis of why India has stayed neutral on the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine:
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/03/russia-ukraine-india-china-democracy-quad.html1 -
As I mentioned previously, Marine LePen actually led Macron in the 2017 polls. Macron went on to beat her 66% to 33%.
I think laying him would be a mistake and I expect a comfortable Macron victory in the run-off.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_French_presidential_election
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Snap. Sorry just read this back.rcs1000 said:
It's also worth noting that - last time around - Macron did massively better than the polls, and Le Pen meaningfully worse.edmundintokyo said:This doesn't look very tight? It looks like Macron is leading by about 10%, which is a lot, and if you're running an incumbent against a very well-known challenger you're unlikely to get a lot of late switchers.
I think it's easier to get an upset in the first round than the runoff.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election#:~:text=The 2017 French presidential election,won by a decisive margin.
By the way did you ever get back to me about the BA pilots thing or did you get the wrong person? Just curious.0 -
Somebody send him the link to Oryx.Nigelb said:How much does Putin know about how badly he’s doing in Ukraine ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60936117
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?
Russia has lost 2,111 pieces of equipment. Of these, 1102 have been destroyed or damaged. Worse, 1109 have been abandoned or captured.
Tanks are now 347: destroyed: 157, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 142.
Oh, and for completeness, Vlad: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html2 -
There was a similarly good article a couple of weeks back in the Telegraph.Nigelb said:Good analysis of why India has stayed neutral on the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine:
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/03/russia-ukraine-india-china-democracy-quad.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/history-politics-mercenaries-many-african-nations-quietly-standing/
Awkward that Truss and Lavrov are in India at the same time. Reminds me of that moment when Hannibal Lecter suggests to Clarice Starling that people will start talking.
Come to think of it, Lavrov and Truss do rather resemble Hannibal and Clarice.1 -
I think they've lost something like 20% of their whole tank force.MarqueeMark said:
Somebody send him the link to Oryx.Nigelb said:How much does Putin know about how badly he’s doing in Ukraine ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60936117
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?
Russia has lost 2,111 pieces of equipment. Of these, 1102 have been destroyed or damaged. Worse, 1109 have been abandoned or captured.
Tanks are now 347: destroyed: 157, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 142.
Oh, and for completeness, Vlad: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
If you consider that 30-40% of those are down to British NLAWs at £12k a pop then we've made one heck of a good investment in our national security.
We've degraded 7% of the armoured capability of our principal enemy, by proxy, for about £50m.
Absolute peanuts in overall defence spending.8 -
The vibe is more Munsters than Silence of the Lambs.Heathener said:
There was a similarly good article a couple of weeks back in the Telegraph.Nigelb said:Good analysis of why India has stayed neutral on the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine:
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/03/russia-ukraine-india-china-democracy-quad.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/history-politics-mercenaries-many-african-nations-quietly-standing/
Awkward that Truss and Lavrov are in India at the same time. Reminds me of that moment when Hannibal Lecter suggests to Clarice Starling that people will start talking.
Come to think of it, Lavrov and Truss do rather resemble Hannibal and Clarice.1 -
.
He’s an old school autocrat - I’m not even sure he uses the internet ?MarqueeMark said:
Somebody send him the link to Oryx.Nigelb said:How much does Putin know about how badly he’s doing in Ukraine ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60936117
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?
Russia has lost 2,111 pieces of equipment. Of these, 1102 have been destroyed or damaged. Worse, 1109 have been abandoned or captured.
Tanks are now 347: destroyed: 157, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 142.
Oh, and for completeness, Vlad: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
He has minions for that stuff.1 -
When you think how much of that tank force has to be stationed in the Far East - just in case China should go for a land grab - and how much more is tied down to keep dodgy republics in check, with another tranche to protect Moscow/St Petersburg, it is a very considerable proportion of the potential force that Russia could have used against NATO.Casino_Royale said:
I think they've lost something like 20% of their whole tank force.MarqueeMark said:
Somebody send him the link to Oryx.Nigelb said:How much does Putin know about how badly he’s doing in Ukraine ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60936117
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?
Russia has lost 2,111 pieces of equipment. Of these, 1102 have been destroyed or damaged. Worse, 1109 have been abandoned or captured.
Tanks are now 347: destroyed: 157, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 142.
Oh, and for completeness, Vlad: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
If you consider that 30-40% of those are down to British NLAWs at £12k a pop then we've made one heck of a good investment in our national security.
We've degraded 7% of the armoured capability of our principal enemy, by proxy, for about £50m.
Absolute peanuts in overall defence spending.
Not that it is going anywhere near NATO until, well, it has some answers to cheap but effective defensive Ruskie-killing kit.1 -
"I don't want to have to tell him...."Nigelb said:.
He’s an old school autocrat - I’m not even sure he uses the internet ?MarqueeMark said:
Somebody send him the link to Oryx.Nigelb said:How much does Putin know about how badly he’s doing in Ukraine ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60936117
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?
Russia has lost 2,111 pieces of equipment. Of these, 1102 have been destroyed or damaged. Worse, 1109 have been abandoned or captured.
Tanks are now 347: destroyed: 157, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 142.
Oh, and for completeness, Vlad: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
He has minions for that stuff.
https://giffiles.alphacoders.com/143/14354.gif
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I've been pleased to see this fundraiser is doing ok. Very simple idea - just take sleeping bags and dry food to the volunteers fighting the Russians. Cuts right through the crap. The organiser is a former UK soldier who has been to Eastern Ukraine and set up a network to distribute the supplies and has an endorsement from the city authorities in Lviv. Mostly business donations, but they are also trying to raise £30k on gofundme.
https://www.gofundme.com/f/delivering-emergency-supplies-to-ukraine
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Your salivation is pretty revolting. Maybe a better site for you would be one in which you can enjoy your war gaming alongside fellow boys with toys rather than a political betting forum.MarqueeMark said:
Ruskie-killing kit.Casino_Royale said:
I think they've lost something like 20% of their whole tank force.MarqueeMark said:
Somebody send him the link to Oryx.Nigelb said:How much does Putin know about how badly he’s doing in Ukraine ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60936117
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?
Russia has lost 2,111 pieces of equipment. Of these, 1102 have been destroyed or damaged. Worse, 1109 have been abandoned or captured.
Tanks are now 347: destroyed: 157, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 142.
Oh, and for completeness, Vlad: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
If you consider that 30-40% of those are down to British NLAWs at £12k a pop then we've made one heck of a good investment in our national security.
We've degraded 7% of the armoured capability of our principal enemy, by proxy, for about £50m.
Absolute peanuts in overall defence spending.
I appreciate there's a horrible war in Ukraine, but it's just that: horrible. There is no glamour in any of this and no place for testosterone-fuelled glorification.
'If in some smothering dreams, you too could pace
Behind the wagon that we flung him in,
And watch the white eyes writhing in his face,
His hanging face, like a devil’s sick of sin;
If you could hear, at every jolt, the blood
Come gargling from the froth-corrupted lungs,
Obscene as cancer, bitter as the cud
Of vile, incurable sores on innocent tongues,—
My friend, you would not tell with such high zest
To children ardent for some desperate glory,
The old Lie: Dulce et decorum est
Pro patria mori.'
0 -
One of the positive things about the war in Ukraine has been watching linkedin. Lots of international corporate types with offices in Ukraine describing their colleagues join the territorial defence and in some cases dying. This does make a big change from the social justice stuff which is fading in to the background. The war in Ukraine profoundly redefines modern ideas of bravery and heroism. Perhaps young people are simply not used to the idea of having to fight a defensive war.0
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Good morning, everyone.
I know this is a new series of "Qui est la presidente?"* but I'm pretty sure it's just repeating the same old script.
*My French was bad even at school so apologies for basic errors.0 -
F1: Las Vegas to host a night race from next year:
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.breaking-las-vegas-to-host-formula-1-night-race-from-2023.69O9nKLwKraqAhR5rr8TQg.html
That's some bullshit. Three races in one country.0 -
Sadly the more damage done to Russian military capability (both human and technical), the safer the world is. They started this whole problem with their insane ideas about empire and territorial expansion. Their solution is through regime change and completely rethinking their idea of nation, if they want to avoid complete societal collapse. Nothing to celebrate, it is just a tragedy.Heathener said:
Your salivation is pretty revolting. Maybe a better site for you would be one in which you can enjoy your war gaming alongside fellow boys with toys rather than a political betting forum.MarqueeMark said:
Ruskie-killing kit.Casino_Royale said:
I think they've lost something like 20% of their whole tank force.MarqueeMark said:
Somebody send him the link to Oryx.Nigelb said:How much does Putin know about how badly he’s doing in Ukraine ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60936117
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?
Russia has lost 2,111 pieces of equipment. Of these, 1102 have been destroyed or damaged. Worse, 1109 have been abandoned or captured.
Tanks are now 347: destroyed: 157, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 142.
Oh, and for completeness, Vlad: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
If you consider that 30-40% of those are down to British NLAWs at £12k a pop then we've made one heck of a good investment in our national security.
We've degraded 7% of the armoured capability of our principal enemy, by proxy, for about £50m.
Absolute peanuts in overall defence spending.
I appreciate there's a horrible war in Ukraine, but it's just that: horrible. There is no glamour in any of this and no place for testosterone-fuelled glorification.
'If in some smothering dreams, you too could pace
Behind the wagon that we flung him in,
And watch the white eyes writhing in his face,
His hanging face, like a devil’s sick of sin;
If you could hear, at every jolt, the blood
Come gargling from the froth-corrupted lungs,
Obscene as cancer, bitter as the cud
Of vile, incurable sores on innocent tongues,—
My friend, you would not tell with such high zest
To children ardent for some desperate glory,
The old Lie: Dulce et decorum est
Pro patria mori.'4 -
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Why is it bullshit? I recall there were three in the US in 1982. Vegas, Long Beach and another that I can't remember. Watkins Glen? It's probably happened on other occasions, too.Morris_Dancer said:F1: Las Vegas to host a night race from next year:
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.breaking-las-vegas-to-host-formula-1-night-race-from-2023.69O9nKLwKraqAhR5rr8TQg.html
That's some bullshit. Three races in one country.1 -
That's not going to be popular with lip-readers!rcs1000 said:0 -
Last time they were in Vegas the town didn't care. Suspect different reaction this time - it'll be a party atmosphere.Morris_Dancer said:F1: Las Vegas to host a night race from next year:
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.breaking-las-vegas-to-host-formula-1-night-race-from-2023.69O9nKLwKraqAhR5rr8TQg.html
That's some bullshit. Three races in one country.
Multiple races in the same country isn't great, but better Las Vegs than Qatar.0 -
Has someone leaked an April Fools Day joke?rcs1000 said:1 -
Does anyone know why the race is likely tightening? Le Pen has at least distanced herself from Putin now but I'd still be very uneasy with her as president.0
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It's started snowing fairly heavily here, just outside Cambridge. Appears to be settling.
It's not expected to last long, but the little 'un's excited.0 -
Are we really saying Putin does not have access to bbc, cnn, al jazeera etc? Come on, it is quite likely he was misinformed about capabilities before the start of the war, but he will know what is happening now. The story is just nice propaganda to undermine him further.Nigelb said:How much does Putin know about how badly he’s doing in Ukraine ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60936117
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?1 -
If they'd stay within their borders, we wouldn't need Ruskie-killing kit.Heathener said:
Your salivation is pretty revolting. Maybe a better site for you would be one in which you can enjoy your war gaming alongside fellow boys with toys rather than a political betting forum.MarqueeMark said:
Ruskie-killing kit.Casino_Royale said:
I think they've lost something like 20% of their whole tank force.MarqueeMark said:
Somebody send him the link to Oryx.Nigelb said:How much does Putin know about how badly he’s doing in Ukraine ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60936117
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?
Russia has lost 2,111 pieces of equipment. Of these, 1102 have been destroyed or damaged. Worse, 1109 have been abandoned or captured.
Tanks are now 347: destroyed: 157, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 142.
Oh, and for completeness, Vlad: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
If you consider that 30-40% of those are down to British NLAWs at £12k a pop then we've made one heck of a good investment in our national security.
We've degraded 7% of the armoured capability of our principal enemy, by proxy, for about £50m.
Absolute peanuts in overall defence spending.
I appreciate there's a horrible war in Ukraine, but it's just that: horrible. There is no glamour in any of this and no place for testosterone-fuelled glorification.
'If in some smothering dreams, you too could pace
Behind the wagon that we flung him in,
And watch the white eyes writhing in his face,
His hanging face, like a devil’s sick of sin;
If you could hear, at every jolt, the blood
Come gargling from the froth-corrupted lungs,
Obscene as cancer, bitter as the cud
Of vile, incurable sores on innocent tongues,—
My friend, you would not tell with such high zest
To children ardent for some desperate glory,
The old Lie: Dulce et decorum est
Pro patria mori.'
They don't, so we do.
Putin's choice, to get tens of thousands of Russians killed and maimed.
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On Le Pen, obviously she has the national front background, but how extreme is she and her party today?
As a comparison which UK politicians would be closest to her politics?0 -
Shamelessly stolen from another forum:
” Russian cosmonauts are now back after a long time in space, the commander updates them on the latest events:
Commander -As per President Putin we are conducting a special military operation in Ukraine. In fact, it's a conflict between Russia and NATO to determine who will dominate the world for the next hundred years.
Cosmonaut-What's the situation now?
Commander-We have lost more than 15,000 soldiers, 6 generals, 500 tanks, 3 ships, 100 planes and 1,000 trucks and armoured personnel carriers.
The shaken Cosmonauts ask: -And NATO? How much did it lose?
Commander- NATO has not yet arrived”
https://science.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=21070061&cid=624038854 -
That’s going to be one hell of a party - Monaco on steroids. I’m going to try to be there.Morris_Dancer said:F1: Las Vegas to host a night race from next year:
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.breaking-las-vegas-to-host-formula-1-night-race-from-2023.69O9nKLwKraqAhR5rr8TQg.html
That's some bullshit. Three races in one country.
Three races (out of probably 25 next year) in the country where they are experiencing the most growth in audience, and have a couple of hundred million more potential fans.
Going to be on boxing timezones though, 4am or thereabouts in the UK.
Would we rather they did three in China, or kept going to Saudi instead?0 -
Mr. Ace, because the calendar is overstuffed already. With what should be limited slots, they should look at racing in new countries not stacking new races in current countries.
Mr. Sandpit, I don't think 25-30 races is desirable. If a new one is required we could go crazy and have one in Germany...0 -
A comfortable majority of those who vote for the other 10 candidates who are about to be eliminated will vote for Macron in the second round. Not yet convinced it will be as close as the last time.
Which is a pity. Macron has shown himself to be no friend of ours and, in my opinion, looks increasingly foolish in his dealings with Russia. But a serious candidate around whom the disillusioned could coalesce simply did not emerge.1 -
The Ukranian figures, even with a large pinch of salt, has the Russian Army and Air Force literally decimated, from one month of fighting in Ukraine.Casino_Royale said:
I think they've lost something like 20% of their whole tank force.MarqueeMark said:
Somebody send him the link to Oryx.Nigelb said:How much does Putin know about how badly he’s doing in Ukraine ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60936117
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?
Russia has lost 2,111 pieces of equipment. Of these, 1102 have been destroyed or damaged. Worse, 1109 have been abandoned or captured.
Tanks are now 347: destroyed: 157, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 142.
Oh, and for completeness, Vlad: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
If you consider that 30-40% of those are down to British NLAWs at £12k a pop then we've made one heck of a good investment in our national security.
We've degraded 7% of the armoured capability of our principal enemy, by proxy, for about £50m.
Absolute peanuts in overall defence spending.
https://www.minusrus.com/en/
They’ve lost nearly 20% of their “tank force” - but given they’re now shipping WWII relics towards the battle, I’ll take an educated guess that the total number of serviceable modern tanks is a small fraction of what they claim it to be.0 -
The first of those in a parking lot.Dura_Ace said:
Why is it bullshit? I recall there were three in the US in 1982. Vegas, Long Beach and another that I can't remember. Watkins Glen? It's probably happened on other occasions, too.Morris_Dancer said:F1: Las Vegas to host a night race from next year:
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.breaking-las-vegas-to-host-formula-1-night-race-from-2023.69O9nKLwKraqAhR5rr8TQg.html
That's some bullshit. Three races in one country.1 -
0
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Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia are the top three proliferators of state-linked Twitter misinformation campaigns, according to a report released Wednesday by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI).
https://www.theregister.com/2022/03/31/russia_iran_and_saudi_arabia/0 -
Puts my concern about a wee bit of snow this morning into perspective, that's for sure. Bit worried about them giving Edinburgh traffic authorities ideas though. Even more effective than closing half the roads.Nigelb said:1 -
It looks like two factors at play. One is that final rounds of French presidential elections are won on which guy supporters of eliminated candidates dislike the least. So supporters of left candidates who don't like either Macron or Le Pen tell opinion polls they will sit on their hands on the final round. They will probably vote Macron when it comes to it, as they did before.FrankBooth said:Does anyone know why the race is likely tightening? Le Pen has at least distanced herself from Putin now but I'd still be very uneasy with her as president.
The other factor is that Macron is getting the blame for cost of living squeezes.
His campaign is going in the wrong direction but he still has a substantial margin.0 -
I don't think "literally decimated" as that would involve every tenth soldier being clubbed to death by his comrades.Sandpit said:
The Ukranian figures, even with a large pinch of salt, has the Russian Army and Air Force literally decimated, from one month of fighting in Ukraine.Casino_Royale said:
I think they've lost something like 20% of their whole tank force.MarqueeMark said:
Somebody send him the link to Oryx.Nigelb said:How much does Putin know about how badly he’s doing in Ukraine ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60936117
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?
Russia has lost 2,111 pieces of equipment. Of these, 1102 have been destroyed or damaged. Worse, 1109 have been abandoned or captured.
Tanks are now 347: destroyed: 157, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 142.
Oh, and for completeness, Vlad: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
If you consider that 30-40% of those are down to British NLAWs at £12k a pop then we've made one heck of a good investment in our national security.
We've degraded 7% of the armoured capability of our principal enemy, by proxy, for about £50m.
Absolute peanuts in overall defence spending.
https://www.minusrus.com/en/
They’ve lost nearly 20% of their “tank force” - but given they’re now shipping WWII relics towards the battle, I’ll take an educated guess that the total number of serviceable modern tanks is a small fraction of what they claim it to be.0 -
How do we explain the recovering rouble? Admittedly it was at historic lows before the war started but I've been surprised by the way its come back.0
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A third reason is that right now Macron has no-one specific to attack, while all the other candidates can attack him. The entire dynamic of the contest changes after the first round vote.FF43 said:
It looks like two factors at play. One is that final rounds of French presidential elections are won on which guy supporters of eliminated candidates dislike the least. So supporters of left candidates who don't like either Macron or Le Pen tell opinion polls they will sit on their hands on the final round. They will probably vote Macron when it comes to it, as they did before.FrankBooth said:Does anyone know why the race is likely tightening? Le Pen has at least distanced herself from Putin now but I'd still be very uneasy with her as president.
The other factor is that Macron is getting the blame for cost of living squeezes.
His campaign is going in the wrong direction but he still has a substantial margin.
0 -
.
Oil purchases by China and India - they have to buy roubles to buy the oil.FrankBooth said:How do we explain the recovering rouble? Admittedly it was at historic lows before the war started but I've been surprised by the way its come back.
Also stringent forex controls have slowed capital outflows.0 -
Russia is still trading with most of the world and it is an energy superpower. That creates at least a level of value.FrankBooth said:How do we explain the recovering rouble? Admittedly it was at historic lows before the war started but I've been surprised by the way its come back.
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Not sure this is technically a desertion, as South Ossetia isn't fully a part of Russia, but 300 troops refused to be used for suicide missions, and went home.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RooslanTotrov/status/1509320247081410567
Alik’s publication (https://twitter.com/rajdianos/status/1509244396381822978…) requires a background deep dive. Here is what I have to say about South Ossetian soldiers’ voluntary refusal to partake in the warfare in Ukraine.
Note the majority of Russia's invasion force is non ethnic Russian.0 -
A day early, surely?rcs1000 said:1 -
Spain has four rounds of MotoGP.Morris_Dancer said:F1: Las Vegas to host a night race from next year:
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.breaking-las-vegas-to-host-formula-1-night-race-from-2023.69O9nKLwKraqAhR5rr8TQg.html
That's some bullshit. Three races in one country.0 -
I think it's partly due to the pattern of sanctions driving the balance of supply and demand. No-one is selling anything to Russia any more. investments are being abandoned rather than liquidated. So there's little demand for foreign currency. Meanwhile Russian oil and gas area sold in foreign currency.FrankBooth said:How do we explain the recovering rouble? Admittedly it was at historic lows before the war started but I've been surprised by the way its come back.
It's not necessarily a sign of business as usual.1 -
In the short term it doesn't matter - Putin doesn't care overmuch about public (edit) welfare.FF43 said:
I think it's partly due to the pattern of sanctions driving the balance of supply and demand. No-one is selling anything to Russia any more. investments are being abandoned rather than liquidated. So there's little demand for foreign currency. Meanwhile Russian oil and gas area sold in foreign currency.FrankBooth said:How do we explain the recovering rouble? Admittedly it was at historic lows before the war started but I've been surprised by the way its come back.
It's not necessarily a sign of business as usual.
Carried on for long it will seriously degrade the economy.0 -
You didn’t post stuff about ba pilots and the vaccine etc? Fair enough. I recall when you arrived we had a spate of bots putting up stories of those kind. I also recall you posting about your inside information from government about new autumn lockdowns being planned, which were not true in any sense, and people jumped you, assuming you were another of those bots/trolls.Heathener said:
Snap. Sorry just read this back.rcs1000 said:
It's also worth noting that - last time around - Macron did massively better than the polls, and Le Pen meaningfully worse.edmundintokyo said:This doesn't look very tight? It looks like Macron is leading by about 10%, which is a lot, and if you're running an incumbent against a very well-known challenger you're unlikely to get a lot of late switchers.
I think it's easier to get an upset in the first round than the runoff.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election#:~:text=The 2017 French presidential election,won by a decisive margin.
By the way did you ever get back to me about the BA pilots thing or did you get the wrong person? Just curious.
Do you accept that the rubbish you posted about the autumn lockdowns was rubbish?1 -
Question for PB crowdsource:
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?1 -
Important for those who believe Russian mothers will force Putin to withdraw.Nigelb said:Not sure this is technically a desertion, as South Ossetia isn't fully a part of Russia, but 300 troops refused to be used for suicide missions, and went home.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RooslanTotrov/status/1509320247081410567
Alik’s publication (https://twitter.com/rajdianos/status/1509244396381822978…) requires a background deep dive. Here is what I have to say about South Ossetian soldiers’ voluntary refusal to partake in the warfare in Ukraine.
Note the majority of Russia's invasion force is non ethnic Russian.0 -
Yes. Another of those ‘I’m hearing government are consulting on a severe lockdown’ - just ludicrous trolling that was commonplace behaviour during the pandemic by the zerocovidians.turbotubbs said:
You didn’t post stuff about ba pilots and the vaccine etc? Fair enough. I recall when you arrived we had a spate of bots putting up stories of those kind. I also recall you posting about your inside information from government about new autumn lockdowns being planned, which were not true in any sense, and people jumped you, assuming you were another of those bots/trolls.Heathener said:
Snap. Sorry just read this back.rcs1000 said:
It's also worth noting that - last time around - Macron did massively better than the polls, and Le Pen meaningfully worse.edmundintokyo said:This doesn't look very tight? It looks like Macron is leading by about 10%, which is a lot, and if you're running an incumbent against a very well-known challenger you're unlikely to get a lot of late switchers.
I think it's easier to get an upset in the first round than the runoff.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election#:~:text=The 2017 French presidential election,won by a decisive margin.
By the way did you ever get back to me about the BA pilots thing or did you get the wrong person? Just curious.
Do you accept that the rubbish you posted about the autumn lockdowns was rubbish?0 -
The race is being funded by F1 directly but yep it's going to be one hell of a party on what was previously the worst weekend of the year for Vegas.Sandpit said:
That’s going to be one hell of a party - Monaco on steroids. I’m going to try to be there.Morris_Dancer said:F1: Las Vegas to host a night race from next year:
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.breaking-las-vegas-to-host-formula-1-night-race-from-2023.69O9nKLwKraqAhR5rr8TQg.html
That's some bullshit. Three races in one country.
Three races (out of probably 25 next year) in the country where they are experiencing the most growth in audience, and have a couple of hundred million more potential fans.
Going to be on boxing timezones though, 4am or thereabouts in the UK.
Would we rather they did three in China, or kept going to Saudi instead?
The Austin contract is up soon and rumour has it there are multiple US locations happy to pay way more than Austin is paying. Netflix has done wonders for F1 in the States.1 -
.
Fair question.Anabobazina said:Question for PB crowdsource:
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?
Perhaps because there aren't any publicly available tests out there for common cold coronaviruses, rhinovirus etc ?
(Outside of public health surveys.)
Someday there probably will be, and they won't require the current uncomfortable process.0 -
It’s possible to get covid below the threshold to trigger an LFT. In my household, I’m positive and others got sick a few days later with the exact same symptoms, but a negative LFT. Coincidence ? Maybe. But it seems a good precaution to assume that it might be cv.Anabobazina said:Question for PB crowdsource:
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?0 -
Because for so many people the LFT experience is a few days of negatives then goes positives. The cold can be bad but we all know what thats like. So when the symptoms are different and the health impact is worse and the test says -ive, the assumption is "probably Covid". As they're really ill its kind of academic at that point - they shouldn't be mixing with people whether it ends up being Covid or not.Anabobazina said:Question for PB crowdsource:
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?1 -
Also, LFTs were recommended for people without symptoms. Those who were ill were advised to take PCR tests.Jonathan said:
It’s possible to get covid below the threshold to trigger an LFT. In my household, I’m positive and others got sick a few days later with the exact same symptoms, but a negative LFT. Coincidence ? Maybe. But it seems a good precaution to assume that it might be cv.Anabobazina said:Question for PB crowdsource:
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?0 -
Yep. Demand for dollars, pounds and euros in Russia has dried up, because there’s no more hard currency left to sell, and Russians can’t get their cash out of the country.Nigelb said:.
Oil purchases by China and India - they have to buy roubles to buy the oil.FrankBooth said:How do we explain the recovering rouble? Admittedly it was at historic lows before the war started but I've been surprised by the way its come back.
Also stringent forex controls have slowed capital outflows.0 -
The other way round in my case and in the case of several other people I know. Had the symptoms of a common cold, did an LFT - negative, then a few days later got the positive test.Anabobazina said:Question for PB crowdsource:
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?
So I passed on Covid to a few people when I probably would have taken extra precautions if I thought it was Covid.0 -
Don’t give the Treasury ideas. You’ve committed 2% to your otan partnersCasino_Royale said:
I think they've lost something like 20% of their whole tank force.MarqueeMark said:
Somebody send him the link to Oryx.Nigelb said:How much does Putin know about how badly he’s doing in Ukraine ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60936117
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?
Russia has lost 2,111 pieces of equipment. Of these, 1102 have been destroyed or damaged. Worse, 1109 have been abandoned or captured.
Tanks are now 347: destroyed: 157, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 142.
Oh, and for completeness, Vlad: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
If you consider that 30-40% of those are down to British NLAWs at £12k a pop then we've made one heck of a good investment in our national security.
We've degraded 7% of the armoured capability of our principal enemy, by proxy, for about £50m.
Absolute peanuts in overall defence spending.1 -
Mr. eek, that's depressing to hear. Austin's the best new circuit in the last 20 years.0
-
Good morning
Rachel Reeves has just given an excellent answer to Kay Burley on the gender debate
0 -
Also, Russian central bank has forced all business in the country to park any foreign reserves they have back in the country. Also blocked ordinary Russians from converting roubles to foreign currency above a low figure.FF43 said:
I think it's partly due to the pattern of sanctions driving the balance of supply and demand. No-one is selling anything to Russia any more. investments are being abandoned rather than liquidated. So there's little demand for foreign currency. Meanwhile Russian oil and gas area sold in foreign currency.FrankBooth said:How do we explain the recovering rouble? Admittedly it was at historic lows before the war started but I've been surprised by the way its come back.
It's not necessarily a sign of business as usual.1 -
Istanbul Park says hello.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. eek, that's depressing to hear. Austin's the best new circuit in the last 20 years.
2 -
Been snowing on the Lincolnshire Edge since dawn. Settled and still snowing heavily here.JosiasJessop said:It's started snowing fairly heavily here, just outside Cambridge. Appears to be settling.
It's not expected to last long, but the little 'un's excited.0 -
It's lucky no one dares tell Putin what's happening. He might be very annoyed.Sandpit said:
The Ukranian figures, even with a large pinch of salt, has the Russian Army and Air Force literally decimated, from one month of fighting in Ukraine.Casino_Royale said:
I think they've lost something like 20% of their whole tank force.MarqueeMark said:
Somebody send him the link to Oryx.Nigelb said:How much does Putin know about how badly he’s doing in Ukraine ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60936117
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?
Russia has lost 2,111 pieces of equipment. Of these, 1102 have been destroyed or damaged. Worse, 1109 have been abandoned or captured.
Tanks are now 347: destroyed: 157, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 142.
Oh, and for completeness, Vlad: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
If you consider that 30-40% of those are down to British NLAWs at £12k a pop then we've made one heck of a good investment in our national security.
We've degraded 7% of the armoured capability of our principal enemy, by proxy, for about £50m.
Absolute peanuts in overall defence spending.
https://www.minusrus.com/en/
They’ve lost nearly 20% of their “tank force” - but given they’re now shipping WWII relics towards the battle, I’ll take an educated guess that the total number of serviceable modern tanks is a small fraction of what they claim it to be.
0 -
Mr. 86, it's a good circuit. But not as good as COTA.
1 -
It's because people have heard lots of stories about people feeling ill for a few days, testing negative, feeling better, but then testing positive on an LFT. This happened very recently to my brother-in-law and my account manager.Anabobazina said:Question for PB crowdsource:
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?
Now, it could be that they both caught a heavy cold, just before developing asymptomatic Covid, but people are interpreting this as a feature of the BA2 sub-variant and our immune system's response to it. People do have a tendency to over-generalise from scant information, but there does appear to be some basis for it.1 -
FF43 said:
The other way round in my case and in the case of several other people I know. Had the symptoms of a common cold, did an LFT - negative, then a few days later got the positive test.Anabobazina said:Question for PB crowdsource:
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?
So I passed on Covid to a few people when I probably would have taken extra precautions if I thought it was Covid.FF43 said:
The other way round in my case and in the case of several other people I know. Had the symptoms of a common cold, did an LFT - negative, then a few days later got the positive test.Anabobazina said:Question for PB crowdsource:
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?
So I passed on Covid to a few people when I probably would have taken extra precautions if I thought it was Covid.
Exactly right. So why test? If you are poorly with a cold/flu/covid, stay at home.RochdalePioneers said:
Because for so many people the LFT experience is a few days of negatives then goes positives. The cold can be bad but we all know what thats like. So when the symptoms are different and the health impact is worse and the test says -ive, the assumption is "probably Covid". As they're really ill its kind of academic at that point - they shouldn't be mixing with people whether it ends up being Covid or not.Anabobazina said:Question for PB crowdsource:
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?
0 -
That is a bizarre attitude. Why go out and spread your germs whether it’s a cold or covid? For many, the former is worse than the latter.FF43 said:
The other way round in my case and in the case of several other people I know. Had the symptoms of a common cold, did an LFT - negative, then a few days later got the positive test.Anabobazina said:Question for PB crowdsource:
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?
So I passed on Covid to a few people when I probably would have taken extra precautions if I thought it was Covid.0 -
Germany buying roubles to pay their gas bills?FrankBooth said:How do we explain the recovering rouble? Admittedly it was at historic lows before the war started but I've been surprised by the way its come back.
0 -
I had Covid at the beginning of last month. While I was ill the LFTs were negative, but the turned positive at the point where I felt better and stayed that way for the rest of the isolation period.Anabobazina said:Question for PB crowdsource:
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?0 -
Why not test? Is your objection to there being more Covid cases? It feels like it is eerywhere at the moment - I'm getting bored of people having to make last minute changes to hard to reach plans because they have come down with it. I'd be very happy if it was gone and forgotten but it isn't.Anabobazina said:FF43 said:
The other way round in my case and in the case of several other people I know. Had the symptoms of a common cold, did an LFT - negative, then a few days later got the positive test.Anabobazina said:Question for PB crowdsource:
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?
So I passed on Covid to a few people when I probably would have taken extra precautions if I thought it was Covid.FF43 said:
The other way round in my case and in the case of several other people I know. Had the symptoms of a common cold, did an LFT - negative, then a few days later got the positive test.Anabobazina said:Question for PB crowdsource:
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?
So I passed on Covid to a few people when I probably would have taken extra precautions if I thought it was Covid.
Exactly right. So why test? If you are poorly with a cold/flu/covid, stay at home.RochdalePioneers said:
Because for so many people the LFT experience is a few days of negatives then goes positives. The cold can be bad but we all know what thats like. So when the symptoms are different and the health impact is worse and the test says -ive, the assumption is "probably Covid". As they're really ill its kind of academic at that point - they shouldn't be mixing with people whether it ends up being Covid or not.Anabobazina said:Question for PB crowdsource:
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?
Which is why you will still see people like me on crowded trains in a mask. I don't wear it everywhere, but where I can reduce my potential exposure at no real cost its a no-brainer. I am far too busy to be laid up for a chunk of the week with the thing.0 -
COTA is indeed the best of the modern F1 circuits, but their contract is up after two more races, and the negotiation is going to be tough for the promotor.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 86, it's a good circuit. But not as good as COTA.
The sport should see it as a key renewal though, the Texas audience is quite different to the Miami and Vegas audiences.0 -
Should Starmer fall under the proverbial bus she seems the obvious candidate to take over at the moment.Big_G_NorthWales said:Good morning
Rachel Reeves has just given an excellent answer to Kay Burley on the gender debate1 -
At the very height of the various peaks, when unconstrained mass testing was available in the UK, PCR tests never came close to a majority being positive. So 80+% of the time, the person didn't have COVID, despite having had some reason for the test.Anabobazina said:Question for PB crowdsource:
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?2 -
Starmer wiv a brarottenborough said:
Should Starmer fall under the proverbial bus she seems the obvious candidate to take over at the moment.Big_G_NorthWales said:Good morning
Rachel Reeves has just given an excellent answer to Kay Burley on the gender debate
0 -
Early in the New Year I had a really bad cold, which despite a PCR and several LFTs stayed a really bad cold…..Anabobazina said:Question for PB crowdsource:
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?0 -
Sounds more like Ed Miliband wiv a bra...bigjohnowls said:
Starmer wiv a brarottenborough said:
Should Starmer fall under the proverbial bus she seems the obvious candidate to take over at the moment.Big_G_NorthWales said:Good morning
Rachel Reeves has just given an excellent answer to Kay Burley on the gender debate0 -
Wtf is going on with BJ’s hooter? Has he found a way to brown nose himself?
https://twitter.com/adamboultontabb/status/1509205458678128650?s=210 -
England lost their first three matches in the Woman's Cricket 50-over World Cup, but have somehow made it to the final with a huge win over South Africa. Can they prevail against Australia in the final?
One interesting point in relation to yesterday's discussion of male/female differences - not a single 6 was scored in this match. In the most recent England mens ODI, nine 6s were scored in the match.0 -
Decimate has been used in the sense of "to reduce by the order of a tenth" for long enough that the meaning as moved, I feel.Foxy said:
I don't think "literally decimated" as that would involve every tenth soldier being clubbed to death by his comrades.Sandpit said:
The Ukranian figures, even with a large pinch of salt, has the Russian Army and Air Force literally decimated, from one month of fighting in Ukraine.Casino_Royale said:
I think they've lost something like 20% of their whole tank force.MarqueeMark said:
Somebody send him the link to Oryx.Nigelb said:How much does Putin know about how badly he’s doing in Ukraine ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60936117
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?
Russia has lost 2,111 pieces of equipment. Of these, 1102 have been destroyed or damaged. Worse, 1109 have been abandoned or captured.
Tanks are now 347: destroyed: 157, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 142.
Oh, and for completeness, Vlad: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
If you consider that 30-40% of those are down to British NLAWs at £12k a pop then we've made one heck of a good investment in our national security.
We've degraded 7% of the armoured capability of our principal enemy, by proxy, for about £50m.
Absolute peanuts in overall defence spending.
https://www.minusrus.com/en/
They’ve lost nearly 20% of their “tank force” - but given they’re now shipping WWII relics towards the battle, I’ll take an educated guess that the total number of serviceable modern tanks is a small fraction of what they claim it to be.
On the tank vintage thing - just imagine the British Army deploying Centurions.1 -
Had a bad cold recently. Lots of people around here had one. Everyone said 'It's a cold."CarlottaVance said:
Early in the New Year I had a really bad cold, which despite a PCR and several LFTs stayed a really bad cold…..Anabobazina said:Question for PB crowdsource:
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?0 -
Bramerbigjohnowls said:
Starmer wiv a brarottenborough said:
Should Starmer fall under the proverbial bus she seems the obvious candidate to take over at the moment.Big_G_NorthWales said:Good morning
Rachel Reeves has just given an excellent answer to Kay Burley on the gender debate
0 -
It seemed likely at one point that Russia might default on its debts. That appears unlikely now.StillWaters said:
Germany buying roubles to pay their gas bills?FrankBooth said:How do we explain the recovering rouble? Admittedly it was at historic lows before the war started but I've been surprised by the way its come back.
0 -
"It's chocolate, not shit"Theuniondivvie said:Wtf is going on with BJ’s hooter? Has he found a way to brown nose himself?
https://twitter.com/adamboultontabb/status/1509205458678128650?s=210 -
I've fallen guilty to this myself a bit. I had a sore throat then minor cold symptom, productive cough for about 10 days. I tested negative, but only one test cos I couldn't be arsed. I wonder if it was covid? No proof BUT with the prevalence so high, there is a good chance it was. The lateral flows are not 100% for detecting and are subject to operator error.Anabobazina said:Question for PB crowdsource:
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?
Also - does it matter now? I think we will be getting new advice from tomorrow when free testing ends.0 -
Macron will be fine. He's the sanest choice and they know it, push come to shove.0
-
Upped her game since she was on R4 then:Big_G_NorthWales said:Good morning
Rachel Reeves has just given an excellent answer to Kay Burley on the gender debate
Rachel Reeves tries and fails to square the Keir Starmer circle. Biology is a big part of sex but there are also people who strongly identify as the other sex and they have the "right" to self identify but also women are entitled to single sex spaces. WHICH IS IT? @BBCR4Today
https://twitter.com/anyabike/status/15094256579771351140 -
They do, apart from the fact that Liz prefers a glass of Prosecco to a nice Chianti.Heathener said:
There was a similarly good article a couple of weeks back in the Telegraph.Nigelb said:Good analysis of why India has stayed neutral on the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine:
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/03/russia-ukraine-india-china-democracy-quad.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/history-politics-mercenaries-many-african-nations-quietly-standing/
Awkward that Truss and Lavrov are in India at the same time. Reminds me of that moment when Hannibal Lecter suggests to Clarice Starling that people will start talking.
Come to think of it, Lavrov and Truss do rather resemble Hannibal and Clarice.0 -
Hopefully with a fatal heart attack.Nigelb said:How much does Putin know about how badly he’s doing in Ukraine ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60936117
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?3 -
Are we ignoring an uncomfortable truth? I've said for a long time that it should seriously worry us that the largest country in the world is a kind of mafia state. But I'm not sure Russia can any longer be described as a mafia state. It now appears to be a terrorist state.
1) Deliberately targeting and killing civilians in order to achieve aims it cannot on the battlefield
2) Kidnapping and holding thousands of people hostage to potentially be used as bait
3) Threatening violence against those who seek to undermine their political aims
Some want the Ukrainians to do a deal with Russia to end the war. But at that moment any deal would involve the surrendering of some of their territory. We never gave away any territory in Northern Ireland as part of the peace process. So who are we to tell the Ukrainians that they 'ought' to do so?
Obviously the comparison between the IRA and the Russian state is absurd. The Russian state is far worse. Republicans in Northern Ireland had some justified grievances in the 1970s. No British city was destroyed in the way that Mariupol has been. Perhaps the size of the threat Ukraine faces means they will feel no need but to compromise. I just hope no-one in the west thinks that it is 'reasonable'. The message to the world would be that our values are paper thin.2 -
But 'literally' recalls the true meaning.Malmesbury said:
Decimate has been used in the sense of "to reduce by the order of a tenth" for long enough that the meaning as moved, I feel.Foxy said:
I don't think "literally decimated" as that would involve every tenth soldier being clubbed to death by his comrades.Sandpit said:
The Ukranian figures, even with a large pinch of salt, has the Russian Army and Air Force literally decimated, from one month of fighting in Ukraine.Casino_Royale said:
I think they've lost something like 20% of their whole tank force.MarqueeMark said:
Somebody send him the link to Oryx.Nigelb said:How much does Putin know about how badly he’s doing in Ukraine ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60936117
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?
Russia has lost 2,111 pieces of equipment. Of these, 1102 have been destroyed or damaged. Worse, 1109 have been abandoned or captured.
Tanks are now 347: destroyed: 157, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 142.
Oh, and for completeness, Vlad: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
If you consider that 30-40% of those are down to British NLAWs at £12k a pop then we've made one heck of a good investment in our national security.
We've degraded 7% of the armoured capability of our principal enemy, by proxy, for about £50m.
Absolute peanuts in overall defence spending.
https://www.minusrus.com/en/
They’ve lost nearly 20% of their “tank force” - but given they’re now shipping WWII relics towards the battle, I’ll take an educated guess that the total number of serviceable modern tanks is a small fraction of what they claim it to be.
On the tank vintage thing - just imagine the British Army deploying Centurions.1 -
Maybe dont be so judgemental about other peoples emotional reaction to an intense situation?Heathener said:
Your salivation is pretty revolting. Maybe a better site for you would be one in which you can enjoy your war gaming alongside fellow boys with toys rather than a political betting forum.MarqueeMark said:
Ruskie-killing kit.Casino_Royale said:
I think they've lost something like 20% of their whole tank force.MarqueeMark said:
Somebody send him the link to Oryx.Nigelb said:How much does Putin know about how badly he’s doing in Ukraine ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60936117
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?
Russia has lost 2,111 pieces of equipment. Of these, 1102 have been destroyed or damaged. Worse, 1109 have been abandoned or captured.
Tanks are now 347: destroyed: 157, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 142.
Oh, and for completeness, Vlad: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
If you consider that 30-40% of those are down to British NLAWs at £12k a pop then we've made one heck of a good investment in our national security.
We've degraded 7% of the armoured capability of our principal enemy, by proxy, for about £50m.
Absolute peanuts in overall defence spending.
I appreciate there's a horrible war in Ukraine, but it's just that: horrible. There is no glamour in any of this and no place for testosterone-fuelled glorification.
'If in some smothering dreams, you too could pace
Behind the wagon that we flung him in,
And watch the white eyes writhing in his face,
His hanging face, like a devil’s sick of sin;
If you could hear, at every jolt, the blood
Come gargling from the froth-corrupted lungs,
Obscene as cancer, bitter as the cud
Of vile, incurable sores on innocent tongues,—
My friend, you would not tell with such high zest
To children ardent for some desperate glory,
The old Lie: Dulce et decorum est
Pro patria mori.'
It's no different than when people get upset and morally uptight at those employing black comedy in response to an awful thing.2 -
LOL, day 3 of this. You’d have thought they’d have agreed on a coherent answer to the question by now.CarlottaVance said:
Upped her game since she was on R4 then:Big_G_NorthWales said:Good morning
Rachel Reeves has just given an excellent answer to Kay Burley on the gender debate
Rachel Reeves tries and fails to square the Keir Starmer circle. Biology is a big part of sex but there are also people who strongly identify as the other sex and they have the "right" to self identify but also women are entitled to single sex spaces. WHICH IS IT? @BBCR4Today
https://twitter.com/anyabike/status/1509425657977135114
Can’t wait for the day-long conference debate on the subject, selected in favour of debating energy prices or inflation.3 -
That something has precedent doesnt mean it cannot be bullshit (someone suggesting lying to parliament has not always meant resigning springs to mind).Dura_Ace said:
Why is it bullshit? I recall there were three in the US in 1982. Vegas, Long Beach and another that I can't remember. Watkins Glen? It's probably happened on other occasions, too.Morris_Dancer said:F1: Las Vegas to host a night race from next year:
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.breaking-las-vegas-to-host-formula-1-night-race-from-2023.69O9nKLwKraqAhR5rr8TQg.html
That's some bullshit. Three races in one country.
Can't say it bothers me but if people would prefer a wider spread of races it makes sense.0 -
Isn't the bigger risk the other way around? That Ukraine will do a deal with Russia because they want peace?FrankBooth said:Are we ignoring an uncomfortable truth? I've said for a long time that it should seriously worry us that the largest country in the world is a kind of mafia state. But I'm not sure Russia can any longer be described as a mafia state. It now appears to be a terrorist state.
1) Deliberately targeting and killing civilians in order to achieve aims it cannot on the battlefield
2) Kidnapping and holding thousands of people hostage to potentially be used as bait
3) Threatening violence against those who seek to undermine their political aims
Some want the Ukrainians to do a deal with Russia to end the war. But at that moment any deal would involve the surrendering of some of their territory. We never gave away any territory in Northern Ireland as part of the peace process. So who are we to tell the Ukrainians that they 'ought' to do so?
Obviously the comparison between the IRA and the Russian state is absurd. The Russian state is far worse. Republicans in Northern Ireland had some justified grievances in the 1970s. No British city was destroyed in the way that Mariupol has been. Perhaps the size of the threat Ukraine faces means they will feel no need but to compromise. I just hope no-one in the west thinks that it is 'reasonable'. The message to the world would be that our values are paper thin.
To be honest, I don't think we should get hung up about the "what does this say about us?" question. What we need to focus on is the medium to long-term.
Irrespective of any deals between Ukraine and Russia, the world has changed forever. Russia is a pariah state. That isn't changing without regime change.4
