Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?
I've fallen guilty to this myself a bit. I had a sore throat then minor cold symptom, productive cough for about 10 days. I tested negative, but only one test cos I couldn't be arsed. I wonder if it was covid? No proof BUT with the prevalence so high, there is a good chance it was. The lateral flows are not 100% for detecting and are subject to operator error.
Also - does it matter now? I think we will be getting new advice from tomorrow when free testing ends.
I think the free advice is "there is no more Covid so why test any more".
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?
Somebody send him the link to Oryx.
Russia has lost 2,111 pieces of equipment. Of these, 1102 have been destroyed or damaged. Worse, 1109 have been abandoned or captured.
Tanks are now 347: destroyed: 157, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 142.
Oh, and for completeness, Vlad: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
I think they've lost something like 20% of their whole tank force.
If you consider that 30-40% of those are down to British NLAWs at £12k a pop then we've made one heck of a good investment in our national security.
We've degraded 7% of the armoured capability of our principal enemy, by proxy, for about £50m.
Absolute peanuts in overall defence spending.
Ruskie-killing kit.
Your salivation is pretty revolting. Maybe a better site for you would be one in which you can enjoy your war gaming alongside fellow boys with toys rather than a political betting forum.
I appreciate there's a horrible war in Ukraine, but it's just that: horrible. There is no glamour in any of this and no place for testosterone-fuelled glorification.
'If in some smothering dreams, you too could pace Behind the wagon that we flung him in, And watch the white eyes writhing in his face, His hanging face, like a devil’s sick of sin; If you could hear, at every jolt, the blood Come gargling from the froth-corrupted lungs, Obscene as cancer, bitter as the cud Of vile, incurable sores on innocent tongues,— My friend, you would not tell with such high zest To children ardent for some desperate glory, The old Lie: Dulce et decorum est Pro patria mori.'
Maybe dont be so judgemental about other peoples emotional reaction to an intense situation?
It's no different than when people get upset and morally uptight at those employing black comedy in response to an awful thing.
Rachel Reeves has just given an excellent answer to Kay Burley on the gender debate
Upped her game since she was on R4 then:
Rachel Reeves tries and fails to square the Keir Starmer circle. Biology is a big part of sex but there are also people who strongly identify as the other sex and they have the "right" to self identify but also women are entitled to single sex spaces. WHICH IS IT? @BBCR4Today
LOL, day 3 of this. You’d have thought they’d have agreed on a coherent answer to the question by now.
Can’t wait for the day-long conference debate on the subject, selected in favour of debating energy prices or inflation.
I agree that they need to find a way to park it. Still not remotely convinced that red wall voters can be persuaded to set aside the misery of a buggered economy and crap services not improved and towns not transformed as promised for "fear the woman with a willy!" stratagem.
The Tories apparently really think red wall voters are stupid. They're not.
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?
Somebody send him the link to Oryx.
Russia has lost 2,111 pieces of equipment. Of these, 1102 have been destroyed or damaged. Worse, 1109 have been abandoned or captured.
Tanks are now 347: destroyed: 157, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 142.
Oh, and for completeness, Vlad: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
They’ve lost nearly 20% of their “tank force” - but given they’re now shipping WWII relics towards the battle, I’ll take an educated guess that the total number of serviceable modern tanks is a small fraction of what they claim it to be.
I don't think "literally decimated" as that would involve every tenth soldier being clubbed to death by his comrades.
Decimate has been used in the sense of "to reduce by the order of a tenth" for long enough that the meaning as moved, I feel.
On the tank vintage thing - just imagine the British Army deploying Centurions.
But 'literally' recalls the true meaning.
That's one argument.
But I've seen "literally decimate" used, in the past and in a number of places to mean "literally reduced by more than one tenth"
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?
Somebody send him the link to Oryx.
Russia has lost 2,111 pieces of equipment. Of these, 1102 have been destroyed or damaged. Worse, 1109 have been abandoned or captured.
Tanks are now 347: destroyed: 157, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 142.
Oh, and for completeness, Vlad: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
I think they've lost something like 20% of their whole tank force.
If you consider that 30-40% of those are down to British NLAWs at £12k a pop then we've made one heck of a good investment in our national security.
We've degraded 7% of the armoured capability of our principal enemy, by proxy, for about £50m.
Absolute peanuts in overall defence spending.
Ruskie-killing kit.
Your salivation is pretty revolting. Maybe a better site for you would be one in which you can enjoy your war gaming alongside fellow boys with toys rather than a political betting forum.
I appreciate there's a horrible war in Ukraine, but it's just that: horrible. There is no glamour in any of this and no place for testosterone-fuelled glorification.
'If in some smothering dreams, you too could pace Behind the wagon that we flung him in, And watch the white eyes writhing in his face, His hanging face, like a devil’s sick of sin; If you could hear, at every jolt, the blood Come gargling from the froth-corrupted lungs, Obscene as cancer, bitter as the cud Of vile, incurable sores on innocent tongues,— My friend, you would not tell with such high zest To children ardent for some desperate glory, The old Lie: Dulce et decorum est Pro patria mori.'
Maybe dont be so judgemental about other peoples emotional reaction to an intense situation?
It's no different than when people get upset and morally uptight at those employing black comedy in response to an awful thing.
Rachel Reeves has just given an excellent answer to Kay Burley on the gender debate
Upped her game since she was on R4 then:
Rachel Reeves tries and fails to square the Keir Starmer circle. Biology is a big part of sex but there are also people who strongly identify as the other sex and they have the "right" to self identify but also women are entitled to single sex spaces. WHICH IS IT? @BBCR4Today
LOL, day 3 of this. You’d have thought they’d have agreed on a coherent answer to the question by now.
Can’t wait for the day-long conference debate on the subject, selected in favour of debating energy prices or inflation.
I agree that they need to find a way to park it. Still not remotely convinced that red wall voters can be persuaded to set aside the misery of a buggered economy and crap services not improved and towns not transformed as promised for "fear the woman with a willy!" stratagem.
The Tories apparently really think red wall voters are stupid. They're not.
Redefine single sex spaces as penis yes/no spaces. Sorted
Tragic but quite possible if this solution is impossible because politicians are scared of saying penis on prime time telly
Rachel Reeves has just given an excellent answer to Kay Burley on the gender debate
Upped her game since she was on R4 then:
Rachel Reeves tries and fails to square the Keir Starmer circle. Biology is a big part of sex but there are also people who strongly identify as the other sex and they have the "right" to self identify but also women are entitled to single sex spaces. WHICH IS IT? @BBCR4Today
LOL, day 3 of this. You’d have thought they’d have agreed on a coherent answer to the question by now.
Can’t wait for the day-long conference debate on the subject, selected in favour of debating energy prices or inflation.
I agree that they need to find a way to park it. Still not remotely convinced that red wall voters can be persuaded to set aside the misery of a buggered economy and crap services not improved and towns not transformed as promised for "fear the woman with a willy!" stratagem.
The Tories apparently really think red wall voters are stupid. They're not.
It’s not specifically trample the rights of over half the population for a tiny special interest group “fear the woman with a willy”, but more emblematic of “look how Labour are out of touch with your real concerns that they can’t even answer simple questions about biology because they are run by/in hock to ideological extremists.”
The British public are very much live and let live - but polling shows attitudes harden when questions of access to women only spaces by biologically intact men come into play.
Here’s the Reeve/Burley clip - they’ve clearly been working on their messaging, but Burley does not confront her with the tougher questions:
Are we ignoring an uncomfortable truth? I've said for a long time that it should seriously worry us that the largest country in the world is a kind of mafia state. But I'm not sure Russia can any longer be described as a mafia state. It now appears to be a terrorist state.
1) Deliberately targeting and killing civilians in order to achieve aims it cannot on the battlefield 2) Kidnapping and holding thousands of people hostage to potentially be used as bait 3) Threatening violence against those who seek to undermine their political aims
Some want the Ukrainians to do a deal with Russia to end the war. But at that moment any deal would involve the surrendering of some of their territory. We never gave away any territory in Northern Ireland as part of the peace process. So who are we to tell the Ukrainians that they 'ought' to do so?
Obviously the comparison between the IRA and the Russian state is absurd. The Russian state is far worse. Republicans in Northern Ireland had some justified grievances in the 1970s. No British city was destroyed in the way that Mariupol has been. Perhaps the size of the threat Ukraine faces means they will feel no need but to compromise. I just hope no-one in the west thinks that it is 'reasonable'. The message to the world would be that our values are paper thin.
Isn't the bigger risk the other way around? That Ukraine will do a deal with Russia because they want peace?
To be honest, I don't think we should get hung up about the "what does this say about us?" question. What we need to focus on is the medium to long-term.
Irrespective of any deals between Ukraine and Russia, the world has changed forever. Russia is a pariah state. That isn't changing without regime change.
I hope you are right. However there are whispers that some people in the west want the Ukrainians to do a deal that brings peace. At the moment that means giving up territory. And there won't be independently verified referendums to settle it.
Rachel Reeves has just given an excellent answer to Kay Burley on the gender debate
Upped her game since she was on R4 then:
Rachel Reeves tries and fails to square the Keir Starmer circle. Biology is a big part of sex but there are also people who strongly identify as the other sex and they have the "right" to self identify but also women are entitled to single sex spaces. WHICH IS IT? @BBCR4Today
LOL, day 3 of this. You’d have thought they’d have agreed on a coherent answer to the question by now.
Can’t wait for the day-long conference debate on the subject, selected in favour of debating energy prices or inflation.
I agree that they need to find a way to park it. Still not remotely convinced that red wall voters can be persuaded to set aside the misery of a buggered economy and crap services not improved and towns not transformed as promised for "fear the woman with a willy!" stratagem.
The Tories apparently really think red wall voters are stupid. They're not.
Predicting the effectiveness of issues like this is tricky. The problem for Labour is that voters might think to themselves "if they don't understand very simple biology, how the **** will they cope running the country?"
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?
Somebody send him the link to Oryx.
Russia has lost 2,111 pieces of equipment. Of these, 1102 have been destroyed or damaged. Worse, 1109 have been abandoned or captured.
Tanks are now 347: destroyed: 157, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 142.
Oh, and for completeness, Vlad: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
They’ve lost nearly 20% of their “tank force” - but given they’re now shipping WWII relics towards the battle, I’ll take an educated guess that the total number of serviceable modern tanks is a small fraction of what they claim it to be.
I don't think "literally decimated" as that would involve every tenth soldier being clubbed to death by his comrades.
Decimate has been used in the sense of "to reduce by the order of a tenth" for long enough that the meaning as moved, I feel.
On the tank vintage thing - just imagine the British Army deploying Centurions.
But 'literally' recalls the true meaning.
That's one argument.
But I've seen "literally decimate" used, in the past and in a number of places to mean "literally reduced by more than one tenth"
The root meaning is simply divide 90:10, so if you do whatever you do to to the 90 rather than the 10 that strikes me as acceptable
Awkward that Truss and Lavrov are in India at the same time. Reminds me of that moment when Hannibal Lecter suggests to Clarice Starling that people will start talking.
Come to think of it, Lavrov and Truss do rather resemble Hannibal and Clarice.
They do, apart from the fact that Liz prefers a glass of Prosecco to a nice Chianti.
Can you hear the silence of the backbenchers, Elizabeth?
Awkward that Truss and Lavrov are in India at the same time. Reminds me of that moment when Hannibal Lecter suggests to Clarice Starling that people will start talking.
Come to think of it, Lavrov and Truss do rather resemble Hannibal and Clarice.
They do, apart from the fact that Liz prefers a glass of Prosecco to a nice Chianti.
It certainly looks like the French election will be much closer than anticipated if a Macron v Le Pen runoff. Le Pen has presented a much less toxic image of herself than in 2017 and certainly her father did while still being able to exploit Macron's unpopularity
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?
I've fallen guilty to this myself a bit. I had a sore throat then minor cold symptom, productive cough for about 10 days. I tested negative, but only one test cos I couldn't be arsed. I wonder if it was covid? No proof BUT with the prevalence so high, there is a good chance it was. The lateral flows are not 100% for detecting and are subject to operator error.
Also - does it matter now? I think we will be getting new advice from tomorrow when free testing ends.
I think the free advice is "there is no more Covid so why test any more".
You seek to be pretty ignorant if that's what you think.
I believe the free advice is "vaccines work so Covid is just another virus now, so why test any more?"
Covid or Common Cold or Flu it doesn't matter. Treat your symptoms. If you feel rotten, stay at home, as you would have before you'd even heard of Covid. If you're fine - don't.
There has also been recent adverse commentary on the quantity/quality of soldiers in the Russian army.
Indeed. The Ukranian losses have generally been of the better-trained soldiers and officers, and of the more sophisticated equipment.
That there might be hundreds of thousands of ‘soldiers’, and a few thousand ‘tanks’ left in reserve, makes little comment about the actual remaining capability in the field of war.
The last month has seen the utter humiliation of the conventional Russian military on an international stage. The worry now is that, as they realise this, they see that what they have left are the unconventional weapons.
Are we ignoring an uncomfortable truth? I've said for a long time that it should seriously worry us that the largest country in the world is a kind of mafia state. But I'm not sure Russia can any longer be described as a mafia state. It now appears to be a terrorist state.
1) Deliberately targeting and killing civilians in order to achieve aims it cannot on the battlefield 2) Kidnapping and holding thousands of people hostage to potentially be used as bait 3) Threatening violence against those who seek to undermine their political aims
Some want the Ukrainians to do a deal with Russia to end the war. But at that moment any deal would involve the surrendering of some of their territory. We never gave away any territory in Northern Ireland as part of the peace process. So who are we to tell the Ukrainians that they 'ought' to do so?
Obviously the comparison between the IRA and the Russian state is absurd. The Russian state is far worse. Republicans in Northern Ireland had some justified grievances in the 1970s. No British city was destroyed in the way that Mariupol has been. Perhaps the size of the threat Ukraine faces means they will feel no need but to compromise. I just hope no-one in the west thinks that it is 'reasonable'. The message to the world would be that our values are paper thin.
Isn't the bigger risk the other way around? That Ukraine will do a deal with Russia because they want peace?
To be honest, I don't think we should get hung up about the "what does this say about us?" question. What we need to focus on is the medium to long-term.
Irrespective of any deals between Ukraine and Russia, the world has changed forever. Russia is a pariah state. That isn't changing without regime change.
I hope you are right. However there are whispers that some people in the west want the Ukrainians to do a deal that brings peace. At the moment that means giving up territory. And there won't be independently verified referendums to settle it.
I'd be surprised if us or the Americans are putting pressure on them to do a deal. Indeed, if we're being brutal, continued conflict is in our interest. The Ukrainians are doing a great job at damaging Russia's military.
Rachel Reeves has just given an excellent answer to Kay Burley on the gender debate
Upped her game since she was on R4 then:
Rachel Reeves tries and fails to square the Keir Starmer circle. Biology is a big part of sex but there are also people who strongly identify as the other sex and they have the "right" to self identify but also women are entitled to single sex spaces. WHICH IS IT? @BBCR4Today
LOL, day 3 of this. You’d have thought they’d have agreed on a coherent answer to the question by now.
Can’t wait for the day-long conference debate on the subject, selected in favour of debating energy prices or inflation.
I agree that they need to find a way to park it. Still not remotely convinced that red wall voters can be persuaded to set aside the misery of a buggered economy and crap services not improved and towns not transformed as promised for "fear the woman with a willy!" stratagem.
The Tories apparently really think red wall voters are stupid. They're not.
It’s not specifically trample the rights of over half the population for a tiny special interest group “fear the woman with a willy”, but more emblematic of “look how Labour are out of touch with your real concerns that they can’t even answer simple questions about biology because they are run by/in hock to ideological extremists.”
The British public are very much live and let live - but polling shows attitudes harden when questions of access to women only spaces by biologically intact men come into play.
Here’s the Reeve/Burley clip - they’ve clearly been working on their messaging, but Burley does not confront her with the tougher questions:
No I get their difficulty on the subject. But "your real concerns" for red wall voters are their energy bills, that levelling up keeps being talked up without delivery, that services keep getting worse despite next week's tax rise. Not willy women.
Its easier to play culture issues when basics like feeling able to pay the bills are sorted. How can the Tories persuade people to ignore their own lived experience and vote instead in fear of the almost entirely mythical cock woman predator?
Are we ignoring an uncomfortable truth? I've said for a long time that it should seriously worry us that the largest country in the world is a kind of mafia state. But I'm not sure Russia can any longer be described as a mafia state. It now appears to be a terrorist state.
1) Deliberately targeting and killing civilians in order to achieve aims it cannot on the battlefield 2) Kidnapping and holding thousands of people hostage to potentially be used as bait 3) Threatening violence against those who seek to undermine their political aims
Some want the Ukrainians to do a deal with Russia to end the war. But at that moment any deal would involve the surrendering of some of their territory. We never gave away any territory in Northern Ireland as part of the peace process. So who are we to tell the Ukrainians that they 'ought' to do so?
Obviously the comparison between the IRA and the Russian state is absurd. The Russian state is far worse. Republicans in Northern Ireland had some justified grievances in the 1970s. No British city was destroyed in the way that Mariupol has been. Perhaps the size of the threat Ukraine faces means they will feel no need but to compromise. I just hope no-one in the west thinks that it is 'reasonable'. The message to the world would be that our values are paper thin.
Isn't the bigger risk the other way around? That Ukraine will do a deal with Russia because they want peace?
To be honest, I don't think we should get hung up about the "what does this say about us?" question. What we need to focus on is the medium to long-term.
Irrespective of any deals between Ukraine and Russia, the world has changed forever. Russia is a pariah state. That isn't changing without regime change.
I hope you are right. However there are whispers that some people in the west want the Ukrainians to do a deal that brings peace. At the moment that means giving up territory. And there won't be independently verified referendums to settle it.
I'd be surprised if us or the Americans are putting pressure on them to do a deal. Indeed, if we're being brutal, continued conflict is in our interest. The Ukrainians are doing a great job at damaging Russia's military.
The biggest fear is probably that they're doing too good a job at damaging Russia's military so Russia does something crazy in response.
That's a fear we need to face not run away from though.
There has also been recent adverse commentary on the quantity/quality of soldiers in the Russian army.
Indeed. The Ukranian losses have generally been of the better-trained soldiers and officers, and of the more sophisticated equipment.
That there might be hundreds of thousands of ‘soldiers’, and a few thousand ‘tanks’ left in reserve, makes little comment about the actual remaining capability in the field of war.
The last month has seen the utter humiliation of the conventional Russian military on an international stage. The worry now is that, as they realise this, they see that what they have left are the unconventional weapons.
My own view is that the risk of Russia using unconventional weapons is reducing, although sadly not zero. The longer this goes on, the more the fact they are not doing well (or perhaps losing) will sink into Putin and the regime's thick skulls. They have already had to say they're refocussing on the south/east of the country, after their attempts to encircle Kyiv failed.
Basically: the longer this goes on, the less likely they are to use such weapons.
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?
I've fallen guilty to this myself a bit. I had a sore throat then minor cold symptom, productive cough for about 10 days. I tested negative, but only one test cos I couldn't be arsed. I wonder if it was covid? No proof BUT with the prevalence so high, there is a good chance it was. The lateral flows are not 100% for detecting and are subject to operator error.
Also - does it matter now? I think we will be getting new advice from tomorrow when free testing ends.
I think the free advice is "there is no more Covid so why test any more".
You seek to be pretty ignorant if that's what you think.
I believe the free advice is "vaccines work so Covid is just another virus now, so why test any more?"
Covid or Common Cold or Flu it doesn't matter. Treat your symptoms. If you feel rotten, stay at home, as you would have before you'd even heard of Covid. If you're fine - don't.
And all that would be fine if BA1 Omicron was the virus and we're all now jabbed so screw it. Except it isn't - BA2 is the variant making people ill and we still need to keep track of variants which can keep mutating around the vaccines. We can't track if we don't bother to test any more.
We all need to treat it as any other virus - as we all agree (now, it wasn't the other fella's position) if you are ill you stay home. But largely we know that Norovirus is the arse-spraying mayhem friend of primary schools - it is what it is. If only Covid would stay as it is.
Rachel Reeves has just given an excellent answer to Kay Burley on the gender debate
Upped her game since she was on R4 then:
Rachel Reeves tries and fails to square the Keir Starmer circle. Biology is a big part of sex but there are also people who strongly identify as the other sex and they have the "right" to self identify but also women are entitled to single sex spaces. WHICH IS IT? @BBCR4Today
LOL, day 3 of this. You’d have thought they’d have agreed on a coherent answer to the question by now.
Can’t wait for the day-long conference debate on the subject, selected in favour of debating energy prices or inflation.
I agree that they need to find a way to park it. Still not remotely convinced that red wall voters can be persuaded to set aside the misery of a buggered economy and crap services not improved and towns not transformed as promised for "fear the woman with a willy!" stratagem.
The Tories apparently really think red wall voters are stupid. They're not.
Predicting the effectiveness of issues like this is tricky. The problem for Labour is that voters might think to themselves "if they don't understand very simple biology, how the **** will they cope running the country?"
Conversely they will know that the Tories don't understand simple principles like honesty and the rule of law and not being corrupt and how to manage an economy and your public services.
Its "Tories have made me poorer" on one side of the equation vs "Labour said something about chicks with dicks" on the other.
Rachel Reeves has just given an excellent answer to Kay Burley on the gender debate
Upped her game since she was on R4 then:
Rachel Reeves tries and fails to square the Keir Starmer circle. Biology is a big part of sex but there are also people who strongly identify as the other sex and they have the "right" to self identify but also women are entitled to single sex spaces. WHICH IS IT? @BBCR4Today
LOL, day 3 of this. You’d have thought they’d have agreed on a coherent answer to the question by now.
Can’t wait for the day-long conference debate on the subject, selected in favour of debating energy prices or inflation.
I agree that they need to find a way to park it. Still not remotely convinced that red wall voters can be persuaded to set aside the misery of a buggered economy and crap services not improved and towns not transformed as promised for "fear the woman with a willy!" stratagem.
The Tories apparently really think red wall voters are stupid. They're not.
It’s not specifically trample the rights of over half the population for a tiny special interest group “fear the woman with a willy”, but more emblematic of “look how Labour are out of touch with your real concerns that they can’t even answer simple questions about biology because they are run by/in hock to ideological extremists.”
The British public are very much live and let live - but polling shows attitudes harden when questions of access to women only spaces by biologically intact men come into play.
Here’s the Reeve/Burley clip - they’ve clearly been working on their messaging, but Burley does not confront her with the tougher questions:
No I get their difficulty on the subject. But "your real concerns" for red wall voters are their energy bills, that levelling up keeps being talked up without delivery, that services keep getting worse despite next week's tax rise. Not willy women.
Its easier to play culture issues when basics like feeling able to pay the bills are sorted. How can the Tories persuade people to ignore their own lived experience and vote instead in fear of the almost entirely mythical cock woman predator?
I agree it’s not a fundamental issue and the battle will be on the economy and personal (lack of) finances - but an issue that ties your opponent in knots and runs the risk of them appearing to being on the wrong side of public opinion - and almost certainly causes in-fighting - is one they will use.
On Le Pen, obviously she has the national front background, but how extreme is she and her party today?
As a comparison which UK politicians would be closest to her politics?
Continuity UKIP maybe.
From talking with fairly non-political French friends - she is still seen as The Fascist. Doesn't matter what she does or says, that is what they see her as. Forever.
Middle class, university educated people, so obviously not representative of the whole population.
There has also been recent adverse commentary on the quantity/quality of soldiers in the Russian army.
Indeed. The Ukranian losses have generally been of the better-trained soldiers and officers, and of the more sophisticated equipment.
That there might be hundreds of thousands of ‘soldiers’, and a few thousand ‘tanks’ left in reserve, makes little comment about the actual remaining capability in the field of war.
The last month has seen the utter humiliation of the conventional Russian military on an international stage. The worry now is that, as they realise this, they see that what they have left are the unconventional weapons.
My own view is that the risk of Russia using unconventional weapons is reducing, although sadly not zero. The longer this goes on, the more the fact they are not doing well (or perhaps losing) will sink into Putin and the regime's thick skulls. They have already had to say they're refocussing on the south/east of the country, after their attempts to encircle Kyiv failed.
Basically: the longer this goes on, the less likely they are to use such weapons.
Let’s hope that remains the case.
Surely even Putin and his generals understand, that the use of unconventional weapons at this point *will* bring a response from the rest of the world?
I’m still not sure they understand the Western sanctions won’t simply get dropped as soon as the fighting stops though.
There has also been recent adverse commentary on the quantity/quality of soldiers in the Russian army.
Indeed. The Ukranian losses have generally been of the better-trained soldiers and officers, and of the more sophisticated equipment.
That there might be hundreds of thousands of ‘soldiers’, and a few thousand ‘tanks’ left in reserve, makes little comment about the actual remaining capability in the field of war.
The last month has seen the utter humiliation of the conventional Russian military on an international stage. The worry now is that, as they realise this, they see that what they have left are the unconventional weapons.
My own view is that the risk of Russia using unconventional weapons is reducing, although sadly not zero. The longer this goes on, the more the fact they are not doing well (or perhaps losing) will sink into Putin and the regime's thick skulls. They have already had to say they're refocussing on the south/east of the country, after their attempts to encircle Kyiv failed.
Basically: the longer this goes on, the less likely they are to use such weapons.
'Morning everyone.
Mr J, I hope you are right, but I fear that while the 'thick skulls' around Putin are aware of the situation they are going to become increasingly desperate in their efforts to reassure 'the Man himself' that the situation is as he wants it to be, rather than as it is.
On Le Pen, obviously she has the national front background, but how extreme is she and her party today?
As a comparison which UK politicians would be closest to her politics?
Continuity UKIP maybe.
From talking with fairly non-political French friends - she is still seen as The Fascist. Doesn't matter what she does or says, that is what they see her as. Forever.
Middle class, university educated people, so obviously not representative of the whole population.
It's disturbing that as many as 47% may vote for her in the second round. Must be a sign that something is seriously wrong with French politics.
There has also been recent adverse commentary on the quantity/quality of soldiers in the Russian army.
Indeed. The Ukranian losses have generally been of the better-trained soldiers and officers, and of the more sophisticated equipment.
That there might be hundreds of thousands of ‘soldiers’, and a few thousand ‘tanks’ left in reserve, makes little comment about the actual remaining capability in the field of war.
The last month has seen the utter humiliation of the conventional Russian military on an international stage. The worry now is that, as they realise this, they see that what they have left are the unconventional weapons.
My own view is that the risk of Russia using unconventional weapons is reducing, although sadly not zero. The longer this goes on, the more the fact they are not doing well (or perhaps losing) will sink into Putin and the regime's thick skulls. They have already had to say they're refocussing on the south/east of the country, after their attempts to encircle Kyiv failed.
Basically: the longer this goes on, the less likely they are to use such weapons.
Let’s hope that remains the case.
Surely even Putin and his generals understand, that the use of unconventional weapons at this point *will* bring a response from the rest of the world?
I’m still not sure they understand the Western sanctions won’t simply get dropped as soon as the fighting stops though.
Whilst the sanctions have been brilliantly effective (and I remember battling away arguing for them on here before they happened) there is a risk that they are too effective.
We need to not paint Putin into a corner so that unconventional weapons are all that is left. Even during the Cuban Missile Crisis a way out was left open to avoid the end.
On Le Pen, obviously she has the national front background, but how extreme is she and her party today?
As a comparison which UK politicians would be closest to her politics?
Continuity UKIP maybe.
From talking with fairly non-political French friends - she is still seen as The Fascist. Doesn't matter what she does or says, that is what they see her as. Forever.
Middle class, university educated people, so obviously not representative of the whole population.
It's disturbing that as many as 47% may vote for her in the second round. Must be a sign that something is seriously wrong with French politics.
That 35 or so % of our electorate indicate that they will vote for the dishonest Johnson and his acolytes, what does that say about ours?
There has also been recent adverse commentary on the quantity/quality of soldiers in the Russian army.
Indeed. The Ukranian losses have generally been of the better-trained soldiers and officers, and of the more sophisticated equipment.
That there might be hundreds of thousands of ‘soldiers’, and a few thousand ‘tanks’ left in reserve, makes little comment about the actual remaining capability in the field of war.
The last month has seen the utter humiliation of the conventional Russian military on an international stage. The worry now is that, as they realise this, they see that what they have left are the unconventional weapons.
My own view is that the risk of Russia using unconventional weapons is reducing, although sadly not zero. The longer this goes on, the more the fact they are not doing well (or perhaps losing) will sink into Putin and the regime's thick skulls. They have already had to say they're refocussing on the south/east of the country, after their attempts to encircle Kyiv failed.
Basically: the longer this goes on, the less likely they are to use such weapons.
Something that hasn't been bought up before, I think.
If they try and use chemical weapons, given the state of the rest of their kit, what is the chance of blowback. The UUSSR used to be famous for the amount of protection they built into their equipment against chemical weapons. But given the current state of their army.....
Anyone up for wheeling a GB gas dispenser out of the store, filling it up and trying to bolt it onto a Russian jet? Exactly.
Another thought - what if they tried a nuke and it was a dud? That would be the moment that MAD stuttered, indeed.
Puts my concern about a wee bit of snow this morning into perspective, that's for sure. Bit worried about them giving Edinburgh traffic authorities ideas though. Even more effective than closing half the roads.
There was at least 5 minutes snow in Dundee yesterday
More in Birkhill (a village up by the Sidlaws towards Coupar Angus). Threats of snow today turned out to be somewhat exaggerated.
Puts my concern about a wee bit of snow this morning into perspective, that's for sure. Bit worried about them giving Edinburgh traffic authorities ideas though. Even more effective than closing half the roads.
There was at least 5 minutes snow in Dundee yesterday
More in Birkhill (a village up by the Sidlaws towards Coupar Angus). Threats of snow today turned out to be somewhat exaggerated.
We had a dusting overnight and get the occasional 5 minute flurries but its melted off already.
Are we ignoring an uncomfortable truth? I've said for a long time that it should seriously worry us that the largest country in the world is a kind of mafia state. But I'm not sure Russia can any longer be described as a mafia state. It now appears to be a terrorist state.
1) Deliberately targeting and killing civilians in order to achieve aims it cannot on the battlefield 2) Kidnapping and holding thousands of people hostage to potentially be used as bait 3) Threatening violence against those who seek to undermine their political aims
Some want the Ukrainians to do a deal with Russia to end the war. But at that moment any deal would involve the surrendering of some of their territory. We never gave away any territory in Northern Ireland as part of the peace process. So who are we to tell the Ukrainians that they 'ought' to do so?
Obviously the comparison between the IRA and the Russian state is absurd. The Russian state is far worse. Republicans in Northern Ireland had some justified grievances in the 1970s. No British city was destroyed in the way that Mariupol has been. Perhaps the size of the threat Ukraine faces means they will feel no need but to compromise. I just hope no-one in the west thinks that it is 'reasonable'. The message to the world would be that our values are paper thin.
Isn't the bigger risk the other way around? That Ukraine will do a deal with Russia because they want peace?
To be honest, I don't think we should get hung up about the "what does this say about us?" question. What we need to focus on is the medium to long-term.
Irrespective of any deals between Ukraine and Russia, the world has changed forever. Russia is a pariah state. That isn't changing without regime change.
I hope you are right. However there are whispers that some people in the west want the Ukrainians to do a deal that brings peace. At the moment that means giving up territory. And there won't be independently verified referendums to settle it.
I'd be surprised if us or the Americans are putting pressure on them to do a deal. Indeed, if we're being brutal, continued conflict is in our interest. The Ukrainians are doing a great job at damaging Russia's military.
This is true for the time being, but if it ends up continuing for many years then sanctions on Russia end up damaging western economies and the dominance of the dollar, while strengthening China that gets to fill the gaps and turn Russia into a client state.
If Russia is looking less like a strong geopolitical competitor and more like a North-Korea-style crazy fearsome cripple, weakening Russia at the cost of strengthening China starts to seem like a bad deal.
On Le Pen, obviously she has the national front background, but how extreme is she and her party today?
As a comparison which UK politicians would be closest to her politics?
Continuity UKIP maybe.
From talking with fairly non-political French friends - she is still seen as The Fascist. Doesn't matter what she does or says, that is what they see her as. Forever.
Middle class, university educated people, so obviously not representative of the whole population.
It's disturbing that as many as 47% may vote for her in the second round. Must be a sign that something is seriously wrong with French politics.
That 35 or so % of our electorate indicate that they will vote for the dishonest Johnson and his acolytes, what does that say about ours?
Or the numbers for Trump which seems to be the most frightening fact.
Puts my concern about a wee bit of snow this morning into perspective, that's for sure. Bit worried about them giving Edinburgh traffic authorities ideas though. Even more effective than closing half the roads.
There was at least 5 minutes snow in Dundee yesterday
More in Birkhill (a village up by the Sidlaws towards Coupar Angus). Threats of snow today turned out to be somewhat exaggerated.
We had a dusting overnight and get the occasional 5 minute flurries but its melted off already.
Raining here, although it was quite sunny earlier. Cold, though; 4.2 deg C on the local sensor, as conveyed to my app.
On Le Pen, obviously she has the national front background, but how extreme is she and her party today?
As a comparison which UK politicians would be closest to her politics?
Continuity UKIP maybe.
From talking with fairly non-political French friends - she is still seen as The Fascist. Doesn't matter what she does or says, that is what they see her as. Forever.
Middle class, university educated people, so obviously not representative of the whole population.
It's disturbing that as many as 47% may vote for her in the second round. Must be a sign that something is seriously wrong with French politics.
That 35 or so % of our electorate indicate that they will vote for the dishonest Johnson and his acolytes, what does that say about ours?
46% voted Conservative or Brexit Party here in 2019
There has also been recent adverse commentary on the quantity/quality of soldiers in the Russian army.
Indeed. The Ukranian losses have generally been of the better-trained soldiers and officers, and of the more sophisticated equipment.
That there might be hundreds of thousands of ‘soldiers’, and a few thousand ‘tanks’ left in reserve, makes little comment about the actual remaining capability in the field of war.
The last month has seen the utter humiliation of the conventional Russian military on an international stage. The worry now is that, as they realise this, they see that what they have left are the unconventional weapons.
My own view is that the risk of Russia using unconventional weapons is reducing, although sadly not zero. The longer this goes on, the more the fact they are not doing well (or perhaps losing) will sink into Putin and the regime's thick skulls. They have already had to say they're refocussing on the south/east of the country, after their attempts to encircle Kyiv failed.
Basically: the longer this goes on, the less likely they are to use such weapons.
'Morning everyone.
Mr J, I hope you are right, but I fear that while the 'thick skulls' around Putin are aware of the situation they are going to become increasingly desperate in their efforts to reassure 'the Man himself' that the situation is as he wants it to be, rather than as it is.
I think my point is that the situation becomes the new normal. The Russian military are not doing well. The sanctions are hurting Russia. Putin and the oligarchs are reviled. Yet they have not been overthrown.
In fact, as Russia finds ways to subvert the sanctions, they might even start to feel more secure.
To escalate to use chemical, and especially nuclear, weapons, they need to feel massively insecure, to have had a shock that makes them react. They know it is a bridge that, once crossed, changes everything. It is a big move. Yet their military failures are no longer the shock they were a month ago. They are the new normal.
IMO the danger was greatest a few weeks back, when the severity of their failure (so far) started to become obvious.
On Le Pen, obviously she has the national front background, but how extreme is she and her party today?
As a comparison which UK politicians would be closest to her politics?
Continuity UKIP maybe.
From talking with fairly non-political French friends - she is still seen as The Fascist. Doesn't matter what she does or says, that is what they see her as. Forever.
Middle class, university educated people, so obviously not representative of the whole population.
It's disturbing that as many as 47% may vote for her in the second round. Must be a sign that something is seriously wrong with French politics.
That 35 or so % of our electorate indicate that they will vote for the dishonest Johnson and his acolytes, what does that say about ours?
46% voted Conservative or Brexit Party here in 2019
On Le Pen, obviously she has the national front background, but how extreme is she and her party today?
As a comparison which UK politicians would be closest to her politics?
Continuity UKIP maybe.
From talking with fairly non-political French friends - she is still seen as The Fascist. Doesn't matter what she does or says, that is what they see her as. Forever.
Middle class, university educated people, so obviously not representative of the whole population.
She is a fascist. Putin will be hoping for her victory. I hope the French authorities are better than ours at monitoring Russian attempts to manipulate hatred and division via social media.
On Le Pen, obviously she has the national front background, but how extreme is she and her party today?
As a comparison which UK politicians would be closest to her politics?
Continuity UKIP maybe.
From talking with fairly non-political French friends - she is still seen as The Fascist. Doesn't matter what she does or says, that is what they see her as. Forever.
Middle class, university educated people, so obviously not representative of the whole population.
It's disturbing that as many as 47% may vote for her in the second round. Must be a sign that something is seriously wrong with French politics.
That 35 or so % of our electorate indicate that they will vote for the dishonest Johnson and his acolytes, what does that say about ours?
46% voted Conservative or Brexit Party here in 2019
Russian meddling and corruption.
No just 45 to 50% are willing to vote for the populist right both here, the USA and France
There has also been recent adverse commentary on the quantity/quality of soldiers in the Russian army.
Indeed. The Ukranian losses have generally been of the better-trained soldiers and officers, and of the more sophisticated equipment.
That there might be hundreds of thousands of ‘soldiers’, and a few thousand ‘tanks’ left in reserve, makes little comment about the actual remaining capability in the field of war.
The last month has seen the utter humiliation of the conventional Russian military on an international stage. The worry now is that, as they realise this, they see that what they have left are the unconventional weapons.
My own view is that the risk of Russia using unconventional weapons is reducing, although sadly not zero. The longer this goes on, the more the fact they are not doing well (or perhaps losing) will sink into Putin and the regime's thick skulls. They have already had to say they're refocussing on the south/east of the country, after their attempts to encircle Kyiv failed.
Basically: the longer this goes on, the less likely they are to use such weapons.
'Morning everyone.
Mr J, I hope you are right, but I fear that while the 'thick skulls' around Putin are aware of the situation they are going to become increasingly desperate in their efforts to reassure 'the Man himself' that the situation is as he wants it to be, rather than as it is.
I think my point is that the situation becomes the new normal. The Russian military are not doing well. The sanctions are hurting Russia. Putin and the oligarchs are reviled. Yet they have not been overthrown.
In fact, as Russia finds ways to subvert the sanctions, they might even start to feel more secure.
To escalate to use chemical, and especially nuclear, weapons, they need to feel massively insecure, to have had a shock that makes them react. They know it is a bridge that, once crossed, changes everything. It is a big move. Yet their military failures are no longer the shock they were a month ago. They are the new normal.
IMO the danger was greatest a few weeks back, when the severity of their failure (so far) started to become obvious.
P'haps.
P'haps indeed. My concerns are that the generals (especially) become desperate to find a success. Were it to become desirable, from their point of view, to call up reservists, how would they explain that the the Boss?
Puts my concern about a wee bit of snow this morning into perspective, that's for sure. Bit worried about them giving Edinburgh traffic authorities ideas though. Even more effective than closing half the roads.
There was at least 5 minutes snow in Dundee yesterday
More in Birkhill (a village up by the Sidlaws towards Coupar Angus). Threats of snow today turned out to be somewhat exaggerated.
We had a dusting overnight and get the occasional 5 minute flurries but its melted off already.
Raining here, although it was quite sunny earlier. Cold, though; 4.2 deg C on the local sensor, as conveyed to my app.
Beautifully sunny here in south Devon, but the wind cuts like a rapier....
England, Uruguay, South Korea, and Costa Rica or New Zealand. I think Gareth would take that.
Criminal that Canada is in Pot 4.
To be honest, I don't think matters much. I don't think there would be a way of justifying them being in Pot 2 and certainly not Pot 1. As ever, the hosts getting Pot 1 is annoying. They should be Pot 4.
On Le Pen, obviously she has the national front background, but how extreme is she and her party today?
As a comparison which UK politicians would be closest to her politics?
Continuity UKIP maybe.
From talking with fairly non-political French friends - she is still seen as The Fascist. Doesn't matter what she does or says, that is what they see her as. Forever.
Middle class, university educated people, so obviously not representative of the whole population.
It's disturbing that as many as 47% may vote for her in the second round. Must be a sign that something is seriously wrong with French politics.
That 35 or so % of our electorate indicate that they will vote for the dishonest Johnson and his acolytes, what does that say about ours?
46% voted Conservative or Brexit Party here in 2019
Russian meddling and corruption.
No just 45 to 50% are willing to vote for the populist right both here, the USA and France
Partly at any rate, and probably significantly, as a result of said R m & c.
On Le Pen, obviously she has the national front background, but how extreme is she and her party today?
As a comparison which UK politicians would be closest to her politics?
Continuity UKIP maybe.
From talking with fairly non-political French friends - she is still seen as The Fascist. Doesn't matter what she does or says, that is what they see her as. Forever.
Middle class, university educated people, so obviously not representative of the whole population.
It's disturbing that as many as 47% may vote for her in the second round. Must be a sign that something is seriously wrong with French politics.
That 35 or so % of our electorate indicate that they will vote for the dishonest Johnson and his acolytes, what does that say about ours?
It says nothing more than that the alternatives are seen as worse.
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?
I've fallen guilty to this myself a bit. I had a sore throat then minor cold symptom, productive cough for about 10 days. I tested negative, but only one test cos I couldn't be arsed. I wonder if it was covid? No proof BUT with the prevalence so high, there is a good chance it was. The lateral flows are not 100% for detecting and are subject to operator error.
Also - does it matter now? I think we will be getting new advice from tomorrow when free testing ends.
I think the free advice is "there is no more Covid so why test any more".
I know you are joking, but the advice I hope will be 'if you have symptoms/are ill, stay at home', which would be a decent start.
I'd question what millions of people testing every day is achieving right now. Certainly its not free in any sense - as a country we are paying for those tests. The ONS and waste water is probably what we need to continue with.
On Le Pen, obviously she has the national front background, but how extreme is she and her party today?
As a comparison which UK politicians would be closest to her politics?
Continuity UKIP maybe.
From talking with fairly non-political French friends - she is still seen as The Fascist. Doesn't matter what she does or says, that is what they see her as. Forever.
Middle class, university educated people, so obviously not representative of the whole population.
It's disturbing that as many as 47% may vote for her in the second round. Must be a sign that something is seriously wrong with French politics.
That 35 or so % of our electorate indicate that they will vote for the dishonest Johnson and his acolytes, what does that say about ours?
It says nothing more than that the alternatives are seen as worse.
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?
I've fallen guilty to this myself a bit. I had a sore throat then minor cold symptom, productive cough for about 10 days. I tested negative, but only one test cos I couldn't be arsed. I wonder if it was covid? No proof BUT with the prevalence so high, there is a good chance it was. The lateral flows are not 100% for detecting and are subject to operator error.
Also - does it matter now? I think we will be getting new advice from tomorrow when free testing ends.
I think the free advice is "there is no more Covid so why test any more".
I know you are joking, but the advice I hope will be 'if you have symptoms/are ill, stay at home', which would be a decent start.
I'd question what millions of people testing every day is achieving right now. Certainly its not free in any sense - as a country we are paying for those tests. The ONS and waste water is probably what we need to continue with.
I don't think we need to test are people ill. Its more being able to keep track of the virus as it mutates - BA2 bringing all kinds of fun in ways that BA1 did. Do we know what is next?
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?
Somebody send him the link to Oryx.
Russia has lost 2,111 pieces of equipment. Of these, 1102 have been destroyed or damaged. Worse, 1109 have been abandoned or captured.
Tanks are now 347: destroyed: 157, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 142.
Oh, and for completeness, Vlad: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
They’ve lost nearly 20% of their “tank force” - but given they’re now shipping WWII relics towards the battle, I’ll take an educated guess that the total number of serviceable modern tanks is a small fraction of what they claim it to be.
I don't think "literally decimated" as that would involve every tenth soldier being clubbed to death by his comrades.
Decimate has been used in the sense of "to reduce by the order of a tenth" for long enough that the meaning as moved, I feel.
On the tank vintage thing - just imagine the British Army deploying Centurions.
But 'literally' recalls the true meaning.
That's one argument.
But I've seen "literally decimate" used, in the past and in a number of places to mean "literally reduced by more than one tenth"
The root meaning is simply divide 90:10, so if you do whatever you do to to the 90 rather than the 10 that strikes me as acceptable
We here are probably the only ones in the country who don't hear "decimate" and think "smashed to bits".
On Le Pen, obviously she has the national front background, but how extreme is she and her party today?
As a comparison which UK politicians would be closest to her politics?
Continuity UKIP maybe.
From talking with fairly non-political French friends - she is still seen as The Fascist. Doesn't matter what she does or says, that is what they see her as. Forever.
Middle class, university educated people, so obviously not representative of the whole population.
In the UK we know surprisingly little about French or German politics. She basically sounds like a French Trump, although perhaps a more honest and law abiding version.
England, Uruguay, South Korea, and Costa Rica or New Zealand. I think Gareth would take that.
Criminal that Canada is in Pot 4.
To be honest, I don't think matters much. I don't think there would be a way of justifying them being in Pot 2 and certainly not Pot 1. As ever, the hosts getting Pot 1 is annoying. They should be Pot 4.
I bet the Germans get Qatar!
Difficult to justify the USA in 2, mind. They only made it on goal difference. Whilst Canada won the group. Ahead of Mexico, too. Also in Pot 2. The winners of Wales/Scotland/Ukraine in 4 will be a dangerous floater also.
Puts my concern about a wee bit of snow this morning into perspective, that's for sure. Bit worried about them giving Edinburgh traffic authorities ideas though. Even more effective than closing half the roads.
There was at least 5 minutes snow in Dundee yesterday
More in Birkhill (a village up by the Sidlaws towards Coupar Angus). Threats of snow today turned out to be somewhat exaggerated.
We had a dusting overnight and get the occasional 5 minute flurries but its melted off already.
Raining here, although it was quite sunny earlier. Cold, though; 4.2 deg C on the local sensor, as conveyed to my app.
Beautifully sunny here in south Devon, but the wind cuts like a rapier....
Snowing now, but doesn't look as though it's settling.
On Le Pen, obviously she has the national front background, but how extreme is she and her party today?
As a comparison which UK politicians would be closest to her politics?
Continuity UKIP maybe.
From talking with fairly non-political French friends - she is still seen as The Fascist. Doesn't matter what she does or says, that is what they see her as. Forever.
Middle class, university educated people, so obviously not representative of the whole population.
It's disturbing that as many as 47% may vote for her in the second round. Must be a sign that something is seriously wrong with French politics.
That 35 or so % of our electorate indicate that they will vote for the dishonest Johnson and his acolytes, what does that say about ours?
It says nothing more than that the alternatives are seen as worse.
All politics at all times is relative. Personally at this moment I would vote Labour in a GE, which would be the first time for years. But Labour would only have to hint at tolerating or encouraging the Stalinist/Stop the War left to switch it back again.
There are only two parties that can lead a government, and we have to have one. Both are hugely flawed; both, at this moment, have very few if any genuine and deep detailed policy differences. (If I am wrong would someone point them out?)
On Le Pen, obviously she has the national front background, but how extreme is she and her party today?
As a comparison which UK politicians would be closest to her politics?
Continuity UKIP maybe.
From talking with fairly non-political French friends - she is still seen as The Fascist. Doesn't matter what she does or says, that is what they see her as. Forever.
Middle class, university educated people, so obviously not representative of the whole population.
It's disturbing that as many as 47% may vote for her in the second round. Must be a sign that something is seriously wrong with French politics.
That 35 or so % of our electorate indicate that they will vote for the dishonest Johnson and his acolytes, what does that say about ours?
It says nothing more than that the alternatives are seen as worse.
It does say that trust and honesty are valued less than they should be. Plenty of pb-ers disqualify voting for Starmer because he is dull but are fine with voting for the PM who they accept is dishonest.
England, Uruguay, South Korea, and Costa Rica or New Zealand. I think Gareth would take that.
That is cheers! Although my England, Mexico, Serbia and Ghana wouldn't be so fortunate!
Yeah, that's about as tough as it can get for England. Mexico haven't been playing that well, but I wouldn't be surprised if they turn it around by December. Serbia is the obvious team to avoid in Pot 3, so we'll probably be hoping to get a European team from Pot 2. Canada in Pot 4 are dangerous, so perhaps Uruguay (nothing special to be honest), Serbia, Canada is the worse outcome for England.
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?
Somebody send him the link to Oryx.
Russia has lost 2,111 pieces of equipment. Of these, 1102 have been destroyed or damaged. Worse, 1109 have been abandoned or captured.
Tanks are now 347: destroyed: 157, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 142.
Oh, and for completeness, Vlad: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
They’ve lost nearly 20% of their “tank force” - but given they’re now shipping WWII relics towards the battle, I’ll take an educated guess that the total number of serviceable modern tanks is a small fraction of what they claim it to be.
I don't think "literally decimated" as that would involve every tenth soldier being clubbed to death by his comrades.
Decimate has been used in the sense of "to reduce by the order of a tenth" for long enough that the meaning as moved, I feel.
On the tank vintage thing - just imagine the British Army deploying Centurions.
But 'literally' recalls the true meaning.
That's one argument.
But I've seen "literally decimate" used, in the past and in a number of places to mean "literally reduced by more than one tenth"
The root meaning is simply divide 90:10, so if you do whatever you do to to the 90 rather than the 10 that strikes me as acceptable
We here are probably the only ones in the country who don't hear "decimate" and think "smashed to bits".
I would guess that most people think it means only 10% left, rather than 90% left.
The same as the confusion between biannual and biennial.
England, Uruguay, South Korea, and Costa Rica or New Zealand. I think Gareth would take that.
Criminal that Canada is in Pot 4.
To be honest, I don't think matters much. I don't think there would be a way of justifying them being in Pot 2 and certainly not Pot 1. As ever, the hosts getting Pot 1 is annoying. They should be Pot 4.
I bet the Germans get Qatar!
Difficult to justify the USA in 2, mind. They only made it on goal difference. Whilst Canada won the group. Ahead of Mexico, too. Also in Pot 2. The winners of Wales/Scotland/Ukraine in 4 will be a dangerous floater also.
Seeding for World Cups is notoriously tricky. If we're being honest, the African teams should all be in Pot 4.
On Le Pen, obviously she has the national front background, but how extreme is she and her party today?
As a comparison which UK politicians would be closest to her politics?
Continuity UKIP maybe.
From talking with fairly non-political French friends - she is still seen as The Fascist. Doesn't matter what she does or says, that is what they see her as. Forever.
Middle class, university educated people, so obviously not representative of the whole population.
It's disturbing that as many as 47% may vote for her in the second round. Must be a sign that something is seriously wrong with French politics.
That 35 or so % of our electorate indicate that they will vote for the dishonest Johnson and his acolytes, what does that say about ours?
46% voted Conservative or Brexit Party here in 2019
I think the interesting thing there is that whilst I personally have no doubt that Farage is far right by most measures, a lot of British people were either not aware, or chose not to believe this, which while regrettable, may to some extent be forgivable. There can be no such benefit of the doubt given to French voters who vote for Le Pen. She is with out any shadow of the doubt of the far right; the modern heir to Franco and Mussolini.
Rachel Reeves has just given an excellent answer to Kay Burley on the gender debate
Upped her game since she was on R4 then:
Rachel Reeves tries and fails to square the Keir Starmer circle. Biology is a big part of sex but there are also people who strongly identify as the other sex and they have the "right" to self identify but also women are entitled to single sex spaces. WHICH IS IT? @BBCR4Today
LOL, day 3 of this. You’d have thought they’d have agreed on a coherent answer to the question by now.
Can’t wait for the day-long conference debate on the subject, selected in favour of debating energy prices or inflation.
I agree that they need to find a way to park it. Still not remotely convinced that red wall voters can be persuaded to set aside the misery of a buggered economy and crap services not improved and towns not transformed as promised for "fear the woman with a willy!" stratagem.
The Tories apparently really think red wall voters are stupid. They're not.
It’s not specifically trample the rights of over half the population for a tiny special interest group “fear the woman with a willy”, but more emblematic of “look how Labour are out of touch with your real concerns that they can’t even answer simple questions about biology because they are run by/in hock to ideological extremists.”
The British public are very much live and let live - but polling shows attitudes harden when questions of access to women only spaces by biologically intact men come into play.
Here’s the Reeve/Burley clip - they’ve clearly been working on their messaging, but Burley does not confront her with the tougher questions:
No I get their difficulty on the subject. But "your real concerns" for red wall voters are their energy bills, that levelling up keeps being talked up without delivery, that services keep getting worse despite next week's tax rise. Not willy women.
Its easier to play culture issues when basics like feeling able to pay the bills are sorted. How can the Tories persuade people to ignore their own lived experience and vote instead in fear of the almost entirely mythical cock woman predator?
Thing is, it's not exactly clear what Labour would do about the cost of living (other than tax North Sea production out of existence - they don't seem to realise that the oil majors' huge profits now cover for the times when the oil price is down and they are losing millions a year).
The available evidence suggests that voting Labour gets you all the current pain, plus preditory cock women. Oh, and probably more tax, because that's what Labour always does.
I hate the current Tory party, with its attitude of soak the workers, protect the OAPs. I won't be voting for them unless they change. But that doesn't make Labour an acceptable alternative - the reality is that bad as the current lot are, Labour will almost certainly be worse.
The western intelligence reports are disturbing, if true. How does he react when he finds out ?
Somebody send him the link to Oryx.
Russia has lost 2,111 pieces of equipment. Of these, 1102 have been destroyed or damaged. Worse, 1109 have been abandoned or captured.
Tanks are now 347: destroyed: 157, damaged: 6, abandoned: 42, captured: 142.
Oh, and for completeness, Vlad: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
They’ve lost nearly 20% of their “tank force” - but given they’re now shipping WWII relics towards the battle, I’ll take an educated guess that the total number of serviceable modern tanks is a small fraction of what they claim it to be.
I don't think "literally decimated" as that would involve every tenth soldier being clubbed to death by his comrades.
Decimate has been used in the sense of "to reduce by the order of a tenth" for long enough that the meaning as moved, I feel.
On the tank vintage thing - just imagine the British Army deploying Centurions.
But 'literally' recalls the true meaning.
That's one argument.
But I've seen "literally decimate" used, in the past and in a number of places to mean "literally reduced by more than one tenth"
The root meaning is simply divide 90:10, so if you do whatever you do to to the 90 rather than the 10 that strikes me as acceptable
We here are probably the only ones in the country who don't hear "decimate" and think "smashed to bits".
I would guess that most people think it means only 10% left, rather than 90% left.
The same as the confusion between biannual and biennial.
Also, it doesn't have to mean put 10% to death. First time it occurs Livy 2.59 "he [put various people to death]; of the remaining number every tenth man was selected by lot for punishment [unspecified but presumably non-fatal]."
There has also been recent adverse commentary on the quantity/quality of soldiers in the Russian army.
Indeed. The Ukranian losses have generally been of the better-trained soldiers and officers, and of the more sophisticated equipment.
That there might be hundreds of thousands of ‘soldiers’, and a few thousand ‘tanks’ left in reserve, makes little comment about the actual remaining capability in the field of war.
The last month has seen the utter humiliation of the conventional Russian military on an international stage. The worry now is that, as they realise this, they see that what they have left are the unconventional weapons.
My own view is that the risk of Russia using unconventional weapons is reducing, although sadly not zero. The longer this goes on, the more the fact they are not doing well (or perhaps losing) will sink into Putin and the regime's thick skulls. They have already had to say they're refocussing on the south/east of the country, after their attempts to encircle Kyiv failed.
Basically: the longer this goes on, the less likely they are to use such weapons.
Let’s hope that remains the case.
Surely even Putin and his generals understand, that the use of unconventional weapons at this point *will* bring a response from the rest of the world?
I’m still not sure they understand the Western sanctions won’t simply get dropped as soon as the fighting stops though.
Whilst the sanctions have been brilliantly effective (and I remember battling away arguing for them on here before they happened) there is a risk that they are too effective.
We need to not paint Putin into a corner so that unconventional weapons are all that is left. Even during the Cuban Missile Crisis a way out was left open to avoid the end.
Ultimately our objective is to force Putin to back down and to accept that invading neighbouring countries will no longer be tolerated. There's no way to avoid this being confrontational, which is a bit risky with a nuclear power, but the way out is that we're not going to march on Moscow, and we're not going to directly threaten his regime.
The most dangerous aspect is Crimea, but Zelenskyy appears to recognise this and also has an interest in avoiding nuclear annihilation.
On Le Pen, obviously she has the national front background, but how extreme is she and her party today?
As a comparison which UK politicians would be closest to her politics?
Continuity UKIP maybe.
From talking with fairly non-political French friends - she is still seen as The Fascist. Doesn't matter what she does or says, that is what they see her as. Forever.
Middle class, university educated people, so obviously not representative of the whole population.
She is a fascist. Putin will be hoping for her victory. I hope the French authorities are better than ours at monitoring Russian attempts to manipulate hatred and division via social media.
Given how well she is polling the evidence suggests that the French authorities are bloody useless at dealing with internal threats.
England, Uruguay, South Korea, and Costa Rica or New Zealand. I think Gareth would take that.
Criminal that Canada is in Pot 4.
To be honest, I don't think matters much. I don't think there would be a way of justifying them being in Pot 2 and certainly not Pot 1. As ever, the hosts getting Pot 1 is annoying. They should be Pot 4.
I bet the Germans get Qatar!
Yes. Just seen Ecuador in 4 too. Anyone who makes the 4 from S America can play a bit.
Are we ignoring an uncomfortable truth? I've said for a long time that it should seriously worry us that the largest country in the world is a kind of mafia state. But I'm not sure Russia can any longer be described as a mafia state. It now appears to be a terrorist state.
1) Deliberately targeting and killing civilians in order to achieve aims it cannot on the battlefield 2) Kidnapping and holding thousands of people hostage to potentially be used as bait 3) Threatening violence against those who seek to undermine their political aims
Some want the Ukrainians to do a deal with Russia to end the war. But at that moment any deal would involve the surrendering of some of their territory. We never gave away any territory in Northern Ireland as part of the peace process. So who are we to tell the Ukrainians that they 'ought' to do so?
Obviously the comparison between the IRA and the Russian state is absurd. The Russian state is far worse. Republicans in Northern Ireland had some justified grievances in the 1970s. No British city was destroyed in the way that Mariupol has been. Perhaps the size of the threat Ukraine faces means they will feel no need but to compromise. I just hope no-one in the west thinks that it is 'reasonable'. The message to the world would be that our values are paper thin.
Isn't the bigger risk the other way around? That Ukraine will do a deal with Russia because they want peace?
To be honest, I don't think we should get hung up about the "what does this say about us?" question. What we need to focus on is the medium to long-term.
Irrespective of any deals between Ukraine and Russia, the world has changed forever. Russia is a pariah state. That isn't changing without regime change.
I hope you are right. However there are whispers that some people in the west want the Ukrainians to do a deal that brings peace. At the moment that means giving up territory. And there won't be independently verified referendums to settle it.
I'd be surprised if us or the Americans are putting pressure on them to do a deal. Indeed, if we're being brutal, continued conflict is in our interest. The Ukrainians are doing a great job at damaging Russia's military.
This is true for the time being, but if it ends up continuing for many years then sanctions on Russia end up damaging western economies and the dominance of the dollar, while strengthening China that gets to fill the gaps and turn Russia into a client state.
If Russia is looking less like a strong geopolitical competitor and more like a North-Korea-style crazy fearsome cripple, weakening Russia at the cost of strengthening China starts to seem like a bad deal.
China has shown itself to be a lot more cautious about invading neighbouring countries than Russia, so it might still be a reasonable trade - though you'd hope one result of this would be a reappraisal of the risks of engaging economically with authoritarian dictatorships which are potential future military adversaries.
Rachel Reeves has just given an excellent answer to Kay Burley on the gender debate
Upped her game since she was on R4 then:
Rachel Reeves tries and fails to square the Keir Starmer circle. Biology is a big part of sex but there are also people who strongly identify as the other sex and they have the "right" to self identify but also women are entitled to single sex spaces. WHICH IS IT? @BBCR4Today
LOL, day 3 of this. You’d have thought they’d have agreed on a coherent answer to the question by now.
Can’t wait for the day-long conference debate on the subject, selected in favour of debating energy prices or inflation.
I agree that they need to find a way to park it. Still not remotely convinced that red wall voters can be persuaded to set aside the misery of a buggered economy and crap services not improved and towns not transformed as promised for "fear the woman with a willy!" stratagem.
The Tories apparently really think red wall voters are stupid. They're not.
It’s not specifically trample the rights of over half the population for a tiny special interest group “fear the woman with a willy”, but more emblematic of “look how Labour are out of touch with your real concerns that they can’t even answer simple questions about biology because they are run by/in hock to ideological extremists.”
The British public are very much live and let live - but polling shows attitudes harden when questions of access to women only spaces by biologically intact men come into play.
Here’s the Reeve/Burley clip - they’ve clearly been working on their messaging, but Burley does not confront her with the tougher questions:
No I get their difficulty on the subject. But "your real concerns" for red wall voters are their energy bills, that levelling up keeps being talked up without delivery, that services keep getting worse despite next week's tax rise. Not willy women.
Its easier to play culture issues when basics like feeling able to pay the bills are sorted. How can the Tories persuade people to ignore their own lived experience and vote instead in fear of the almost entirely mythical cock woman predator?
Thing is, it's not exactly clear what Labour would do about the cost of living (other than tax North Sea production out of existence - they don't seem to realise that the oil majors' huge profits now cover for the times when the oil price is down and they are losing millions a year).
The available evidence suggests that voting Labour gets you all the current pain, plus preditory cock women. Oh, and probably more tax, because that's what Labour always does.
I hate the current Tory party, with its attitude of soak the workers, protect the OAPs. I won't be voting for them unless they change. But that doesn't make Labour an acceptable alternative - the reality is that bad as the current lot are, Labour will almost certainly be worse.
I agree that its not going to be easy for anyone! For me the argument for a Labour government isn't that they will have a magic wand to make everything right. Its that they aren't corrupt. Aren't brazen liars. Aren't in the pockets of dodgy foreign money. Aren't astonishingly incompetent (c.f. the guff about P&OF where it turns out this government enabled it to happen and can't do anything after all).
Principles matter. We can't have a Prime Minister and senior cabinet ministers who think the rule of law doesn't apply to them.
Puts my concern about a wee bit of snow this morning into perspective, that's for sure. Bit worried about them giving Edinburgh traffic authorities ideas though. Even more effective than closing half the roads.
There was at least 5 minutes snow in Dundee yesterday
More in Birkhill (a village up by the Sidlaws towards Coupar Angus). Threats of snow today turned out to be somewhat exaggerated.
We had a dusting overnight and get the occasional 5 minute flurries but its melted off already.
Raining here, although it was quite sunny earlier. Cold, though; 4.2 deg C on the local sensor, as conveyed to my app.
Beautifully sunny here in south Devon, but the wind cuts like a rapier....
Snowing now, but doesn't look as though it's settling.
Morning, OKC. Had a rattly shower on the windows at bedtime last night - turned out to be compacted snow/hail up to large lentil or very small pea size. Strange feel on our constitutional walk this morning - looked like an accident in an expanded polystyrene factory: almost exactly the same feel and consistency. Now thawing but a bit more to come here in SE Scotland this afternoon.
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?
I've fallen guilty to this myself a bit. I had a sore throat then minor cold symptom, productive cough for about 10 days. I tested negative, but only one test cos I couldn't be arsed. I wonder if it was covid? No proof BUT with the prevalence so high, there is a good chance it was. The lateral flows are not 100% for detecting and are subject to operator error.
Also - does it matter now? I think we will be getting new advice from tomorrow when free testing ends.
I think the free advice is "there is no more Covid so why test any more".
I know you are joking, but the advice I hope will be 'if you have symptoms/are ill, stay at home', which would be a decent start.
I'd question what millions of people testing every day is achieving right now. Certainly its not free in any sense - as a country we are paying for those tests. The ONS and waste water is probably what we need to continue with.
I don't think we need to test are people ill. Its more being able to keep track of the virus as it mutates - BA2 bringing all kinds of fun in ways that BA1 did. Do we know what is next?
The ONS survey is continuing, that has consistently been the best test of what is happening in the population at large. There are also surveillance studies for care homes and the NHS.
On Le Pen, obviously she has the national front background, but how extreme is she and her party today?
As a comparison which UK politicians would be closest to her politics?
Continuity UKIP maybe.
From talking with fairly non-political French friends - she is still seen as The Fascist. Doesn't matter what she does or says, that is what they see her as. Forever.
Middle class, university educated people, so obviously not representative of the whole population.
It's disturbing that as many as 47% may vote for her in the second round. Must be a sign that something is seriously wrong with French politics.
That 35 or so % of our electorate indicate that they will vote for the dishonest Johnson and his acolytes, what does that say about ours?
46% voted Conservative or Brexit Party here in 2019
I think the interesting thing there is that whilst I personally have no doubt that Farage is far right by most measures, a lot of British people were either not aware, or chose not to believe this, which while regrettable, may to some extent be forgivable. There can be no such benefit of the doubt given to French voters who vote for Le Pen. She is with out any shadow of the doubt of the far right; the modern heir to Franco and Mussolini.
I agree. In particular although Farage is of the right and is definitely a populist and a very effective one at that he has never come over as a fascist to me.
Has anyone else encountered the phenomenon whereby people are ill, ‘pass’ several LFTs (i.e. the tests are negative), yet still assume - and say - they have covid?
I’ve encountered this several times in the last few weeks. The common cold has not disappeared - and can be unpleasant.
Why do people say it’s covid when the tests say otherwise?
I've fallen guilty to this myself a bit. I had a sore throat then minor cold symptom, productive cough for about 10 days. I tested negative, but only one test cos I couldn't be arsed. I wonder if it was covid? No proof BUT with the prevalence so high, there is a good chance it was. The lateral flows are not 100% for detecting and are subject to operator error.
Also - does it matter now? I think we will be getting new advice from tomorrow when free testing ends.
I think the free advice is "there is no more Covid so why test any more".
I know you are joking, but the advice I hope will be 'if you have symptoms/are ill, stay at home', which would be a decent start.
I'd question what millions of people testing every day is achieving right now. Certainly its not free in any sense - as a country we are paying for those tests. The ONS and waste water is probably what we need to continue with.
I don't think we need to test are people ill. Its more being able to keep track of the virus as it mutates - BA2 bringing all kinds of fun in ways that BA1 did. Do we know what is next?
We can keep track of variants by sequencing the ONS survey positive tests and those in hospital.
Mass PCR testing to keep track of variants is very expensive and doesn't add significantly to that.
There has also been recent adverse commentary on the quantity/quality of soldiers in the Russian army.
Indeed. The Ukranian losses have generally been of the better-trained soldiers and officers, and of the more sophisticated equipment.
That there might be hundreds of thousands of ‘soldiers’, and a few thousand ‘tanks’ left in reserve, makes little comment about the actual remaining capability in the field of war.
The last month has seen the utter humiliation of the conventional Russian military on an international stage. The worry now is that, as they realise this, they see that what they have left are the unconventional weapons.
My own view is that the risk of Russia using unconventional weapons is reducing, although sadly not zero. The longer this goes on, the more the fact they are not doing well (or perhaps losing) will sink into Putin and the regime's thick skulls. They have already had to say they're refocussing on the south/east of the country, after their attempts to encircle Kyiv failed.
Basically: the longer this goes on, the less likely they are to use such weapons.
Let’s hope that remains the case.
Surely even Putin and his generals understand, that the use of unconventional weapons at this point *will* bring a response from the rest of the world?
I’m still not sure they understand the Western sanctions won’t simply get dropped as soon as the fighting stops though.
Whilst the sanctions have been brilliantly effective (and I remember battling away arguing for them on here before they happened) there is a risk that they are too effective.
We need to not paint Putin into a corner so that unconventional weapons are all that is left. Even during the Cuban Missile Crisis a way out was left open to avoid the end.
Ultimately our objective is to force Putin to back down and to accept that invading neighbouring countries will no longer be tolerated. There's no way to avoid this being confrontational, which is a bit risky with a nuclear power, but the way out is that we're not going to march on Moscow, and we're not going to directly threaten his regime.
The most dangerous aspect is Crimea, but Zelenskyy appears to recognise this and also has an interest in avoiding nuclear annihilation.
There does appear to be some realpolitik acceptance of reality over Crimea. It was Russia. Then it was Ukraine because someone got drunk. Now it is Russia again because someone got mad. Should Russia be able to annex wherever it likes? No. But Crimea isn't quite the same as Donbass, and tough situations like Zelinsky is in forces some tough decisions.
What do we think the toughest within each pot is ?
Germany - Serbia - UEFA ?
Quite possibly, but obviously only two UEFA teams to a group. Thinking about it, I wouldn't want Germany, Canada and then anyone from Pot 3. Only needs two decent teams to knock you out.
There has also been recent adverse commentary on the quantity/quality of soldiers in the Russian army.
Indeed. The Ukranian losses have generally been of the better-trained soldiers and officers, and of the more sophisticated equipment.
That there might be hundreds of thousands of ‘soldiers’, and a few thousand ‘tanks’ left in reserve, makes little comment about the actual remaining capability in the field of war.
The last month has seen the utter humiliation of the conventional Russian military on an international stage. The worry now is that, as they realise this, they see that what they have left are the unconventional weapons.
My own view is that the risk of Russia using unconventional weapons is reducing, although sadly not zero. The longer this goes on, the more the fact they are not doing well (or perhaps losing) will sink into Putin and the regime's thick skulls. They have already had to say they're refocussing on the south/east of the country, after their attempts to encircle Kyiv failed.
Basically: the longer this goes on, the less likely they are to use such weapons.
Let’s hope that remains the case.
Surely even Putin and his generals understand, that the use of unconventional weapons at this point *will* bring a response from the rest of the world?
I’m still not sure they understand the Western sanctions won’t simply get dropped as soon as the fighting stops though.
Whilst the sanctions have been brilliantly effective (and I remember battling away arguing for them on here before they happened) there is a risk that they are too effective.
We need to not paint Putin into a corner so that unconventional weapons are all that is left. Even during the Cuban Missile Crisis a way out was left open to avoid the end.
Ultimately our objective is to force Putin to back down and to accept that invading neighbouring countries will no longer be tolerated. There's no way to avoid this being confrontational, which is a bit risky with a nuclear power, but the way out is that we're not going to march on Moscow, and we're not going to directly threaten his regime.
The most dangerous aspect is Crimea, but Zelenskyy appears to recognise this and also has an interest in avoiding nuclear annihilation.
There does appear to be some realpolitik acceptance of reality over Crimea. It was Russia. Then it was Ukraine because someone got drunk. Now it is Russia again because someone got mad. Should Russia be able to annex wherever it likes? No. But Crimea isn't quite the same as Donbass, and tough situations like Zelinsky is in forces some tough decisions.
Well, I wouldn't put it like that. The people of Crimea voted to be part of Ukraine in the early 90s. That vote should be respected and supersedes any arguments based on what happened to the borders in the 50s, or whenever.
If the people of Crimea want differently there are democratic avenues for that to be argued for, just as with Quebec, Northern Ireland and Scotland.
So the distinction I would draw is that an attempt to reclaim Crimea militarily would be a lot more risky than an attempt to reclaim Kherson, or even Donetsk, but we should not accept it as such, but leave it as a condition for Russia's readmittance to a state of normal relations.
England, Uruguay, South Korea, and Costa Rica or New Zealand. I think Gareth would take that.
Criminal that Canada is in Pot 4.
To be honest, I don't think matters much. I don't think there would be a way of justifying them being in Pot 2 and certainly not Pot 1. As ever, the hosts getting Pot 1 is annoying. They should be Pot 4.
I bet the Germans get Qatar!
I hope they do, it would be the best scenario for the other seven pot 1 teams!
What do we think the toughest within each pot is ?
Germany - Serbia - UEFA ?
Quite possibly, but obviously only two UEFA teams to a group. Thinking about it, I wouldn't want Germany, Canada and then anyone from Pot 3. Only needs two decent teams to knock you out.
Yes. History suggests we could really do with a Pot 2 team we can get at least a point against, therefore meaning we would likely only need to beat one of the two remaining teams.
What do we think the toughest within each pot is ?
Germany - Serbia - UEFA ?
Quite possibly, but obviously only two UEFA teams to a group. Thinking about it, I wouldn't want Germany, Canada and then anyone from Pot 3. Only needs two decent teams to knock you out.
We know Trump, Boris and Putin are appalling people. Le Pen has appalling policies but alarmingly may be less of a liar and less corruptable.
RIP NATO
We seem to be establishing extra European defence partnerships in addition to NATO. There's an Arctic one with Norway, Sweden (and Finland?), and the Polish/Ukraine Alliance.
I think that, diplomatically at least, Britain would keep a lot of NATO together, even in the absence of the US and France. How much it would be capable of in the absence of various bits of US capability, I'm not so sure of.
Rachel Reeves has just given an excellent answer to Kay Burley on the gender debate
Upped her game since she was on R4 then:
Rachel Reeves tries and fails to square the Keir Starmer circle. Biology is a big part of sex but there are also people who strongly identify as the other sex and they have the "right" to self identify but also women are entitled to single sex spaces. WHICH IS IT? @BBCR4Today
LOL, day 3 of this. You’d have thought they’d have agreed on a coherent answer to the question by now.
Can’t wait for the day-long conference debate on the subject, selected in favour of debating energy prices or inflation.
I agree that they need to find a way to park it. Still not remotely convinced that red wall voters can be persuaded to set aside the misery of a buggered economy and crap services not improved and towns not transformed as promised for "fear the woman with a willy!" stratagem.
The Tories apparently really think red wall voters are stupid. They're not.
It’s not specifically trample the rights of over half the population for a tiny special interest group “fear the woman with a willy”, but more emblematic of “look how Labour are out of touch with your real concerns that they can’t even answer simple questions about biology because they are run by/in hock to ideological extremists.”
The British public are very much live and let live - but polling shows attitudes harden when questions of access to women only spaces by biologically intact men come into play.
Here’s the Reeve/Burley clip - they’ve clearly been working on their messaging, but Burley does not confront her with the tougher questions:
No I get their difficulty on the subject. But "your real concerns" for red wall voters are their energy bills, that levelling up keeps being talked up without delivery, that services keep getting worse despite next week's tax rise. Not willy women.
Its easier to play culture issues when basics like feeling able to pay the bills are sorted. How can the Tories persuade people to ignore their own lived experience and vote instead in fear of the almost entirely mythical cock woman predator?
Thing is, it's not exactly clear what Labour would do about the cost of living (other than tax North Sea production out of existence - they don't seem to realise that the oil majors' huge profits now cover for the times when the oil price is down and they are losing millions a year).
The available evidence suggests that voting Labour gets you all the current pain, plus preditory cock women. Oh, and probably more tax, because that's what Labour always does.
I hate the current Tory party, with its attitude of soak the workers, protect the OAPs. I won't be voting for them unless they change. But that doesn't make Labour an acceptable alternative - the reality is that bad as the current lot are, Labour will almost certainly be worse.
I agree that its not going to be easy for anyone! For me the argument for a Labour government isn't that they will have a magic wand to make everything right. Its that they aren't corrupt. Aren't brazen liars. Aren't in the pockets of dodgy foreign money. Aren't astonishingly incompetent (c.f. the guff about P&OF where it turns out this government enabled it to happen and can't do anything after all).
Principles matter. We can't have a Prime Minister and senior cabinet ministers who think the rule of law doesn't apply to them.
I totally agree, does anyone seriously think that Starmer will turn everything around in 5 years, it's more that this shower cant be allowed to win again,they will rightly think we can lie, fuck up everything, tank the economy, bring the nhs to its knees, and they still vote us back, if nothing else they may learn some humility
On Le Pen, obviously she has the national front background, but how extreme is she and her party today?
As a comparison which UK politicians would be closest to her politics?
Continuity UKIP maybe.
From talking with fairly non-political French friends - she is still seen as The Fascist. Doesn't matter what she does or says, that is what they see her as. Forever.
Middle class, university educated people, so obviously not representative of the whole population.
It's disturbing that as many as 47% may vote for her in the second round. Must be a sign that something is seriously wrong with French politics.
That 35 or so % of our electorate indicate that they will vote for the dishonest Johnson and his acolytes, what does that say about ours?
And over 35% actually voted for a party led by someone now opposing support for Ukraine resistance. It would be ridiculous to write off the vast majority of Labour voters morally though - we all have blind spots and delusions. Johnson and Corbyn were the two worst choices in modern UK history but the least bad was chosen. There is understandable reluctance by many to trust Labour yet. Currently I'll probably vote LD as a sort of negative statement about the main choices.
On Le Pen, obviously she has the national front background, but how extreme is she and her party today?
As a comparison which UK politicians would be closest to her politics?
Continuity UKIP maybe.
From talking with fairly non-political French friends - she is still seen as The Fascist. Doesn't matter what she does or says, that is what they see her as. Forever.
Middle class, university educated people, so obviously not representative of the whole population.
It's disturbing that as many as 47% may vote for her in the second round. Must be a sign that something is seriously wrong with French politics.
That 35 or so % of our electorate indicate that they will vote for the dishonest Johnson and his acolytes, what does that say about ours?
46% voted Conservative or Brexit Party here in 2019
I think the interesting thing there is that whilst I personally have no doubt that Farage is far right by most measures, a lot of British people were either not aware, or chose not to believe this, which while regrettable, may to some extent be forgivable. There can be no such benefit of the doubt given to French voters who vote for Le Pen. She is with out any shadow of the doubt of the far right; the modern heir to Franco and Mussolini.
I agree. In particular although Farage is of the right and is definitely a populist and a very effective one at that he has never come over as a fascist to me.
There's a type of politician, most commonly though not exclusively on the populist right, who doesn't address issues by "What do I/my ideology think is best?" or "What does decency require?" but simply "What will gain attention for me, and probably votes?" I see Farage in that category. There are very few things I can't imagine his being willing to say, but I don't imagine he's driven by a fascist agenda.
I wonder if that isn't also true of Le Pen to some extent. Her father was a straightforward fascist, and unwilling to pretend to be anything else. Marine Le Pen seems perfectly capable of adopting more centrist positions to win votes, or drop them for the same reason. Yes, she's a sort of heir to various far right villains, but I suspect that real fascists regard her with some suspicion as just another politicians. Hence Zemmour.
Obviously I want her to lose massively. But I wouldn't think that if she gets 45% (and I really doubt if it'll be more despite a couple of different polls) that means 45% of the French are symnpathetic to fascism.
On Le Pen, obviously she has the national front background, but how extreme is she and her party today?
As a comparison which UK politicians would be closest to her politics?
Continuity UKIP maybe.
From talking with fairly non-political French friends - she is still seen as The Fascist. Doesn't matter what she does or says, that is what they see her as. Forever.
Middle class, university educated people, so obviously not representative of the whole population.
It's disturbing that as many as 47% may vote for her in the second round. Must be a sign that something is seriously wrong with French politics.
That 35 or so % of our electorate indicate that they will vote for the dishonest Johnson and his acolytes, what does that say about ours?
46% voted Conservative or Brexit Party here in 2019
I think the interesting thing there is that whilst I personally have no doubt that Farage is far right by most measures, a lot of British people were either not aware, or chose not to believe this, which while regrettable, may to some extent be forgivable. There can be no such benefit of the doubt given to French voters who vote for Le Pen. She is with out any shadow of the doubt of the far right; the modern heir to Franco and Mussolini.
I agree. In particular although Farage is of the right and is definitely a populist and a very effective one at that he has never come over as a fascist to me.
There's a type of politician, most commonly though not exclusively on the populist right, who doesn't address issues by "What do I/my ideology think is best?" or "What does decency require?" but simply "What will gain attention for me, and probably votes?" I see Farage in that category. There are very few things I can't imagine his being willing to say, but I don't imagine he's driven by a fascist agenda.
I wonder if that isn't also true of Le Pen to some extent. Her father was a straightforward fascist, and unwilling to pretend to be anything else. Marine Le Pen seems perfectly capable of adopting more centrist positions to win votes, or drop them for the same reason. Yes, she's a sort of heir to various far right villains, but I suspect that real fascists regard her with some suspicion as just another politicians. Hence Zemmour.
Obviously I want her to lose massively. But I wouldn't think that if she gets 45% (and I really doubt if it'll be more despite a couple of different polls) that means 45% of the French are symnpathetic to fascism.
"Eye-catching initiatives with which I personally am associated."
On Le Pen, obviously she has the national front background, but how extreme is she and her party today?
As a comparison which UK politicians would be closest to her politics?
Continuity UKIP maybe.
From talking with fairly non-political French friends - she is still seen as The Fascist. Doesn't matter what she does or says, that is what they see her as. Forever.
Middle class, university educated people, so obviously not representative of the whole population.
It's disturbing that as many as 47% may vote for her in the second round. Must be a sign that something is seriously wrong with French politics.
That 35 or so % of our electorate indicate that they will vote for the dishonest Johnson and his acolytes, what does that say about ours?
46% voted Conservative or Brexit Party here in 2019
I think the interesting thing there is that whilst I personally have no doubt that Farage is far right by most measures, a lot of British people were either not aware, or chose not to believe this, which while regrettable, may to some extent be forgivable. There can be no such benefit of the doubt given to French voters who vote for Le Pen. She is with out any shadow of the doubt of the far right; the modern heir to Franco and Mussolini.
I agree. In particular although Farage is of the right and is definitely a populist and a very effective one at that he has never come over as a fascist to me.
There's a type of politician, most commonly though not exclusively on the populist right, who doesn't address issues by "What do I/my ideology think is best?" or "What does decency require?" but simply "What will gain attention for me, and probably votes?" I see Farage in that category. There are very few things I can't imagine his being willing to say, but I don't imagine he's driven by a fascist agenda.
I wonder if that isn't also true of Le Pen to some extent. Her father was a straightforward fascist, and unwilling to pretend to be anything else. Marine Le Pen seems perfectly capable of adopting more centrist positions to win votes, or drop them for the same reason. Yes, she's a sort of heir to various far right villains, but I suspect that real fascists regard her with some suspicion as just another politicians. Hence Zemmour.
Obviously I want her to lose massively. But I wouldn't think that if she gets 45% (and I really doubt if it'll be more despite a couple of different polls) that means 45% of the French are symnpathetic to fascism.
It's wrong to throw idle accusations around, but they tick some of these boxes...
Comments
Essential viewing.
The Tories apparently really think red wall voters are stupid. They're not.
Found this - https://www.engineereddata.com/go-ukraine.html
But I've seen "literally decimate" used, in the past and in a number of places to mean "literally reduced by more than one tenth"
In the sense I'm homo sapiens, but I'll take it.
Tragic but quite possible if this solution is impossible because politicians are scared of saying penis on prime time telly
The British public are very much live and let live - but polling shows attitudes harden when questions of access to women only spaces by biologically intact men come into play.
Here’s the Reeve/Burley clip - they’ve clearly been working on their messaging, but Burley does not confront her with the tougher questions:
https://twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1509439570420633601
I believe the free advice is "vaccines work so Covid is just another virus now, so why test any more?"
Covid or Common Cold or Flu it doesn't matter. Treat your symptoms. If you feel rotten, stay at home, as you would have before you'd even heard of Covid. If you're fine - don't.
That there might be hundreds of thousands of ‘soldiers’, and a few thousand ‘tanks’ left in reserve, makes little comment about the actual remaining capability in the field of war.
The last month has seen the utter humiliation of the conventional Russian military on an international stage. The worry now is that, as they realise this, they see that what they have left are the unconventional weapons.
That link shows Macron on over 60% v Le Pen in most March 2017 runoff polls ie at this stage and Le Pen not ahead in a single runoff poll
Macron 1.13 / 1.15
Le Pen 10 / 11.5
https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022
Its easier to play culture issues when basics like feeling able to pay the bills are sorted. How can the Tories persuade people to ignore their own lived experience and vote instead in fear of the almost entirely mythical cock woman predator?
That's a fear we need to face not run away from though.
Basically: the longer this goes on, the less likely they are to use such weapons.
We all need to treat it as any other virus - as we all agree (now, it wasn't the other fella's position) if you are ill you stay home. But largely we know that Norovirus is the arse-spraying mayhem friend of primary schools - it is what it is. If only Covid would stay as it is.
Its "Tories have made me poorer" on one side of the equation vs "Labour said something about chicks with dicks" on the other.
Middle class, university educated people, so obviously not representative of the whole population.
Surely even Putin and his generals understand, that the use of unconventional weapons at this point *will* bring a response from the rest of the world?
I’m still not sure they understand the Western sanctions won’t simply get dropped as soon as the fighting stops though.
Mr J, I hope you are right, but I fear that while the 'thick skulls' around Putin are aware of the situation they are going to become increasingly desperate in their efforts to reassure 'the Man himself' that the situation is as he wants it to be, rather than as it is.
We need to not paint Putin into a corner so that unconventional weapons are all that is left. Even during the Cuban Missile Crisis a way out was left open to avoid the end.
If they try and use chemical weapons, given the state of the rest of their kit, what is the chance of blowback. The UUSSR used to be famous for the amount of protection they built into their equipment against chemical weapons. But given the current state of their army.....
Anyone up for wheeling a GB gas dispenser out of the store, filling it up and trying to bolt it onto a Russian jet? Exactly.
Another thought - what if they tried a nuke and it was a dud? That would be the moment that MAD stuttered, indeed.
If Russia is looking less like a strong geopolitical competitor and more like a North-Korea-style crazy fearsome cripple, weakening Russia at the cost of strengthening China starts to seem like a bad deal.
https://draw.inker.one/#/wc/gs
England, Uruguay, South Korea, and Costa Rica or New Zealand. I think Gareth would take that.
In fact, as Russia finds ways to subvert the sanctions, they might even start to feel more secure.
To escalate to use chemical, and especially nuclear, weapons, they need to feel massively insecure, to have had a shock that makes them react. They know it is a bridge that, once crossed, changes everything. It is a big move. Yet their military failures are no longer the shock they were a month ago. They are the new normal.
IMO the danger was greatest a few weeks back, when the severity of their failure (so far) started to become obvious.
P'haps.
I bet the Germans get Qatar!
I'd question what millions of people testing every day is achieving right now. Certainly its not free in any sense - as a country we are paying for those tests. The ONS and waste water is probably what we need to continue with.
Although my England, Mexico, Serbia and Ghana wouldn't be so fortunate!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_Marine_Le_Pen
The winners of Wales/Scotland/Ukraine in 4 will be a dangerous floater also.
There are only two parties that can lead a government, and we have to have one. Both are hugely flawed; both, at this moment, have very few if any genuine and deep detailed policy differences. (If I am wrong would someone point them out?)
The same as the confusion between biannual and biennial.
The available evidence suggests that voting Labour gets you all the current pain, plus preditory cock women. Oh, and probably more tax, because that's what Labour always does.
I hate the current Tory party, with its attitude of soak the workers, protect the OAPs. I won't be voting for them unless they change.
But that doesn't make Labour an acceptable alternative - the reality is that bad as the current lot are, Labour will almost certainly be worse.
The most dangerous aspect is Crimea, but Zelenskyy appears to recognise this and also has an interest in avoiding nuclear annihilation.
Anyone who makes the 4 from S America can play a bit.
Principles matter. We can't have a Prime Minister and senior cabinet ministers who think the rule of law doesn't apply to them.
Mass PCR testing to keep track of variants is very expensive and doesn't add significantly to that.
- Le Pen in Paris
- Trump in Washington
- Putin in Moscow
- Johnson in London.
Makes you shudder.Germany - Serbia - Canada ?
If the people of Crimea want differently there are democratic avenues for that to be argued for, just as with Quebec, Northern Ireland and Scotland.
So the distinction I would draw is that an attempt to reclaim Crimea militarily would be a lot more risky than an attempt to reclaim Kherson, or even Donetsk, but we should not accept it as such, but leave it as a condition for Russia's readmittance to a state of normal relations.
I think that, diplomatically at least, Britain would keep a lot of NATO together, even in the absence of the US and France. How much it would be capable of in the absence of various bits of US capability, I'm not so sure of.
I wonder if that isn't also true of Le Pen to some extent. Her father was a straightforward fascist, and unwilling to pretend to be anything else. Marine Le Pen seems perfectly capable of adopting more centrist positions to win votes, or drop them for the same reason. Yes, she's a sort of heir to various far right villains, but I suspect that real fascists regard her with some suspicion as just another politicians. Hence Zemmour.
Obviously I want her to lose massively. But I wouldn't think that if she gets 45% (and I really doubt if it'll be more despite a couple of different polls) that means 45% of the French are symnpathetic to fascism.
@JohnRentoul
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1h
56 years since Labour won a sustainable parliamentary majority under someone who wasn't Tony Blair
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1509446270863171591
https://www.openculture.com/2016/11/umberto-eco-makes-a-list-of-the-14-common-features-of-fascism.html