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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’ve backed Philip Hammond as next Prime Minister at 33
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’ve backed Philip Hammond as next Prime Minister at 33/1 (and Sajid Javid at 50/1)
A few months ago, there was speculation that if Scotland votes Yes, then David Cameron would resign as Prime Minister, that speculation has amped up in recent days.
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He didn't really have an option.
Clegg?
If Cameron leaves as PM within a week of a YES vote.. what price he is/isnt officially out by the end of the year, and how much do you want to bet?
The situation would be similar to the post-Suez one in 1956. Anthony Eden with his his distinguished career was undone by catastrophic miscalculations as PM and had to resign under cover of ill-health. This is Cameron. His successor, Harold MacMillan, brought reassurance and calm to a situation in which Britain had suffered a political, military and diplomatic humiliation; he eventually turned things around. This is Hammond. And Scottish secession would be every bit as traumatic as Suez, if not more so.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7ySKryGldo
I mentioned that last night, a "half" resignation.
On Sept 10th @davieclegg pol editor of @daily_record will release #indyref headline figs at 10.30pm.Tables will then be tweeted by us HERE
http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/briefing-papers/SN01366/leadership-elections-conservative-party
2 names go forward to full membership vote. The 2 names are selected by Tory MPs via a series of ballots.
With polls at the time showing only a third of Scots backed independence, it would have been perfectly sensible to have said "there is no demand for it", and just carried on as normal - ideally, of course, pursuing some policies that were vaguely Scot-friendly.
Instead, he felt the hand of history on his shoulder and thought "I'll lance the SNP boil by forcing them to hold an earlier referendum, on whatever terms Salmond wants, because the Unionist cause will win, and I'll be the PM who saved the Union and put the issue to bed for a generation".
A bold vision. But he's screwed it up magnificently, and even if No somehow gets 50%+1, the genie is out of the bottle now and it is only a matter of time before the wailing Nats get their way now.
All his own doing. He will have to go.
Damn I wanted you to put your money where your mouth was
There are plenty enough people in the party who wouldn't forgive him and who'd feel strong enough to push him out if he didn't go of his own accord.
I suspect Ashcroft, Murdoch and a few chided donors might even 'help' with that.
International telephone call for Mr David Miliband...
And right now grassroots Tories are highly suspicious of anything that vaguely looks like one of those.
http://www.royal.gov.uk/MonarchUK/QueenandGovernment/QueenandPrimeMinister.aspx
As it happens, Salmond is safe even if No scrapes home because it's pretty clear now that Yes isn't going to anything less than the mid to high 40s - had it been 60% or more for No, then Salmond would have been out on his ear too.
"Nice that everyone now agrees with what I've been saying for weeks, initially to much derision."
That was because back then, nobody thought that Yes would win. Now it is a distinct possibility.
'Top energy and defence figure switches from No to Yes
A leading energy and defence industry figure who was involved in the early stages of the No campaign has come out strongly in favour of a Yes vote on September 18.
Ian Godden says independence will unleash an ‘energy and passion’ that will not only be good for Scotland, but will also lead to a much needed ‘refresh’ of the rest of the UK.
The international businessman, who has more than 40 years’ experience in the oil, aerospace and security sectors, says a No vote would be “a vote for the long-term decline of Scotland” and would be ‘tragic’.
Mr Godden, who comes from Edinburgh, is founder and chairman of independent oil company Glenmore Energy plc, a non-executive director of the Bristows Helicopters Group, and until recently chairman of Farnborough International, the company behind the Farnborough Airshow and other global aerospace, defence and security events.
He is also chairman of KBC Advanced Technologies plc, a public consulting and Software Company involved in oil and gas production, and a Fellow of the Royal Aeronautical Society.'
http://tinyurl.com/k7zxqle
A bold vision. But he's screwed it up magnificently, and even if No somehow gets 50%+1, the genie is out of the bottle now and it is only a matter of time before the wailing Nats get their way now.
.
I'm not so sure. The Westminster parties, having been given the fright of their lives, will have learned to say an unequivocal NO to any further referendum.
Giving the Scots the referendum that the SNP had earned was the honourable call. Devo Max is not for the Scots alone to decide.
Would be the greatest strategic blunder since Japan attacked Pearl Harbour to keep America OUT of the Second World War.
Cameron should have allowed a moderate devoplus on the ballot, and made sure Scots in EWNI could vote. No way Salmond would have won.
I can't see there being a wait unless Cameron announces a two or three month resignation period. If he goes straight away, then, IMHO, the Leader of the House might be asked by the Queen to explore whether he could command the confidence. This is Hague, so the 50/1 you can get on him has tempted me. But really we need Vernon Bogdanor on this thread.
Only minor flaw is that this is NOT the prospectus upon which Sindy has been sold. 'Freedom and jam' is a base lie.
Given the choices on offer, the Queen might well be expected to say "Dave, you're not leaving"
For the want of a nail, etc, etc.
Nothing new and just clutching at straws.
Perhaps WH would even reconsider his retirement plans - I would think him a good choice man to keep FUK together, hold Tory votes in the north, drive a hard bargain with the SNP and Farage, and seek re-election in May 2015.
Hammond? I'm hardly enthused.
If they wanted to they could immediately end the coalition and call a vote of no confidence in the government, which they'd almost certainly win. The Tories don't have the votes to stop it if Lib Dem/Labour combine, even if the DUP back Cameron (and why would they when he's just lost the Union)
The only thing stopping it would be pure Lib Dem self-interest.
Meanwhile here is some not-completely-irrelevant-if-hardly-scientific polling to use to assess May's chances relative to Hammond's:
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/06/theresa-may-storms-to-a-12-point-lead-over-boris-in-our-future-leader-poll.html
Plus no special rule for 16-18 year olds and 'do you agree Scotland should leave the UK?' or similar rather than this nebulous 'should' Scotland be an 'independent' country nonsense. Makes it sound like it's currently dependent and shackled.
But Cameron is too crap at politics to do this. In a way it's a shame he won't be around to table his EU referendum "offer" in 2017. I'd love to have eventually found out how shite it was.
I don't think we can yet relegate "What If Scotland votes No?" to the status of amusing counterfactual history.
That said, as far as I'm aware, the Coalition Agreement was for the duration of the Parliament and that means until the dissolution next March. As an LD, I'm sure the deal was with the Conservative Party, not David Cameron or William Hague. IF the Conservatives choose to change leader (which is their prerogative), for my money the Coalition remains in place.
The problem I can see is that if some new "hardline" (whatever that means) Prime Minister and Chancellor decide on a Budget aimed more at winning UKIP voters to the blue ticket than the general good of the economy.
They deserve a prize for effort, at least...
"In appointing a Prime Minister, the Sovereign is guided by constitutional conventions. The main requirement is to find someone who can command the confidence of the House of Commons."
I meant irrelevant in respect of this. I'd be surprised if there's a constitutional convention requiring the FUK leader to have the confidence of those that just FUKed us. If the queen has told you different, why not enlighten us..
And now we know what your standards of hardness are that "screw them all" clarion call is so much less believable.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/scotland-pre-referendum-special.html
Cameron: +20 (+75)
Miliband : +16 (+30)
I work in house these days
Imagine he did become the next PM?! A lot less than 2.4% chance I reckon!
Indeed, why should Cameron go because Miliband's Labour has run a bad campaign?
Even if every, single, last, Tory Scottish MP asks for Cameron's head, I cannot see amounting to much...
Saltire falls off Downing Street flagpole. Portent of doom.
What counts against him is his relative lack of political experience (2010 elected, I believe). And the fact that he built his career at DB Singapore. You can imagine Labour attacking him for being a banker (although in this scenario they will be forming a circular firing squad anyway, one hopes)...
And I didnt say what I thought voters would want, I said what I thought would be best (that was, after all, what you asked). So even if I had a position on Scottish independence it would be irrelevant.
"I've not had a single billable hour in three years"
Not a good day to be bringing up "billable hours"?
(kidding, before you serve me a writ) :-)
"Ex-coroner William John Owen pleads guilty to £1m theft"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-south-west-wales-29127916
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2008/may/01/boris.livingstone
Helen Milburn @HelenMilburn 9m
"You're a weird lookin bastart eh?" "Yes, it is a lovely day!"
http://tinyurl.com/qgs3tco
But she would be the cartoonists choice as replacement.
Would that the Labour & Lib Dem numbers were as robust.....and that's Cameron's fault?
As usual you are confusing what you and your fellow travellers want with the wider public. Two very different things, as ever. Most people will, I dare say, want an amicable divorce that maintains the intercourse if not the marriage between the two nations to maximum benefit.
Vote YES, get (rid of) Dave!