On topic: Pretty unlikely, I think. We have an election in a few months' time.
Mind you, I'm enjoying the idea that this is somehow the Conservatives' fault.
The Government's proposals carry within them the virus that will begin to eat away, and eventually cause to unravel, the bonds that hold the United Kingdom together. It is not written into the White Paper, but the virus is there. The proposals are the first step on the way to an independent Scotland and the break-up of the United Kingdom. - Michael Ancram, 31 July 1997
Cameron could have offered three choices like Howard did in Australia in respect of becoming a Republic:
1. Status Quo
2. Devomax
3. Full Independence
He gambled that Status Quo will beat Independence. It still might. But with such a small margin that the issue will not go away and Scottish anger with regard to anything English will be so scathing that in some ways it would be better to part.
By the way, Devomax would have won handsomely.
Yeah, but Dave being Dave would have made the same offer Gordo just did - ie ignoring the WLQ / England. If it's a narrow NO then we're going to get a FUK soonish. So smiles all round (after a period of chaos and wailing and gnashing).
On topic: Pretty unlikely, I think. We have an election in a few months' time.
Mind you, I'm enjoying the idea that this is somehow the Conservatives' fault.
The Government's proposals carry within them the virus that will begin to eat away, and eventually cause to unravel, the bonds that hold the United Kingdom together. It is not written into the White Paper, but the virus is there. The proposals are the first step on the way to an independent Scotland and the break-up of the United Kingdom. - Michael Ancram, 31 July 1997
Tbf the kind of mindset that would seek to deny Scottish people the devolution they clearly wanted is pretty much a significant problem in keeping Scotland in the union. As it was a problem for keeping the Irish Free State in the union.
Has anyone considered the wild prospect that a Free Scotland might actually be better off, due to a can-do spirit born of creating a new nation?
Welcome back BAJ.
In see you've been watching Disney movies in your absence.
TBF, Ireland has outperformed the UK in the last 20-odd years, going from a substantially lower GDP per capita, to a noticably higher one.
This is not because it's a member of the EU, but because they have adopted pro-business
However, between here and there will be a nasty transition period, where a lot of people are disappointed that Scotland is not a socialist nirvana - something that will be compounded by a nasty combination of falling oil prices and falling oil volumes.
it was the 70 years befspring back to life, the rest of the country will be years behind.
But small countries are always exporting and importing people in a way large countries are not: 40% of Luxembourg graduates work outside the country. That doesn't mean Luxemourg (It might continue to have CM in asset management, but we'll see...)
Re Ireland: Industrial production last month was +18%, the highest number on record, property prices are rising, the Markit surveys are among the best in the world, and its 'employment optimism' index at +20 is literally the very best in the world. No, unemployment is not back to pre-crisis levels, but it is falling at a rapid rate, and the latest temporary staffing numbers would indicate it will have sub 10% unemployment by early next year, and could be down to 8% by the end of the year.
Well that's all banker speak. The increase in activity isn't yet flowing in to people's pockets and nor will it for some time as a mountain of bank debt still has to be repaid and people have been hammered with extra taxes. While I welcome the good news this simply means there is the chance of some light at the end of the tunnel, but meaningful recovery which the citizens will feel is still a way off I'm afraid.
As for the small country argument it cuts both ways, there are some really shit small countries albania, greece, moldova. What you seem to be saying is an advanced country with a small population which is blessed with natural resources and that is not run by complete idiots has above average wealth. But the same can also apply to big countries - see Australia and Canada.
Has anyone considered the wild prospect that a Free Scotland might actually be better off, due to a can-do spirit born of creating a new nation?
Welcome back BAJ.
In see you've been watching Disney movies in your absence.
TBF, Ireland has outperformed the UK in the last 20-odd years, going from a substantially lower GDP per capita, to a noticably higher one.
This is not because it's a member of the EU, but because they have adopted pro-business policies, such as a very low corporate rate, and have attracted a lot of manufacturing (particularly in technology and pharmaceuticals), as well as an increasing amount of financial services back office work.
Scotland, in the longer-term, will no follow the Irish model, and I have no doubt that they will prosper as a small-state, pro-business country.
However, between here and there will be a nasty transition period, where a lot of people are disappointed that Scotland is not a socialist nirvana - something that will be compounded by a nasty combination of falling oil prices and falling oil volumes.
it was the 70 years before that which were a bit shit.
And really anyone saying Ireland is boomsville today ought to have relations there. The country is still exporting its people, GDP comparisons are meaningless since it's driven by an over valued currency and it;s only now that Dublin is starting to spring back to life, the rest of the country will be years behind.
But small countries are always exporting and importing people in a way large countries are not: 40% of Luxembourg graduates work outside the country. That doesn't mean Luxemourg is a disaster zone that's exporting talent, it means that it's a small country and if your speciality is - say - nuclear fusion or analog semiconductor design then you'll be working abroad. The same would inevitably true of Scotland: it would have critical mass in certain parts of technology (software), engineering, and oil & gas; it would probably lose critical mass in most of the bits of financial services where it is currently strong. (It might continue to have CM in asset management, but we'll see...)
The small country argument can be used to say why migration flows are larger, as a share of population, but it can't be used to say that the direction of it doesn't matter.
On topic: Pretty unlikely, I think. We have an election in a few months' time.
Mind you, I'm enjoying the idea that this is somehow the Conservatives' fault.
The Government's proposals carry within them the virus that will begin to eat away, and eventually cause to unravel, the bonds that hold the United Kingdom together. It is not written into the White Paper, but the virus is there. The proposals are the first step on the way to an independent Scotland and the break-up of the United Kingdom. - Michael Ancram, 31 July 1997
Cameron could have offered three choices like Howard did in Australia in respect of becoming a Republic:
1. Status Quo
2. Devomax
3. Full Independence
He gambled that Status Quo will beat Independence. It still might. But with such a small margin that the issue will not go away and Scottish anger with regard to anything English will be so scathing that in some ways it would be better to part.
By the way, Devomax would have won handsomely.
Of course Devomax would have won.
But then Cameron would have been criticised for allowing the middle option (that obviously everyone would pick), and instead he should have chosen the 2-question option (in/out), rather than push everyone further towards a fedUK.
Probably. The Tory party never seems to encourage its ex-leaders to hang around for long, but Hammond will not be the next leader, nor will May. Tory leaders seem to come from flankers in the second round of voting. People so unthought of that nobody hates them enough to block them. Sajid Javid would be a smart move however.
Moving on to more important stuff. I have updated my avatar to reflect my current favourites.
Has anyone considered the wild prospect that a Free Scotland might actually be better off, due to a can-do spirit born of creating a new nation?
Welcome back BAJ.
In see you've been watching Disney movies in your absence.
T
However, between here and there will be a nasty transition period, where a lot of people are disappointed that Scotland is not a socialist nirvana - something that will be compounded by a nasty combination of falling oil prices and falling oil volumes.
it was the 70 years before that which were a bit shit.
And really anyone saying Ireland is boomsville today ought to have relations there. The country is still exporting its people, GDP comparisons are meaningless since it's driven by an over valued currency and it;s only now that Dublin is starting to spring back to life, the rest of the country will be years behind.
Re Ireland: Industrial production last month was +18%, the highest number on record, property prices are rising, the Markit surveys are among the best in the world, and its 'employment optimism' index at +20 is literally the very best in the world. No, unemployment is not back to pre-crisis levels, but it is falling at a rapid rate, and the latest temporary staffing numbers would indicate it will have sub 10% unemployment by early next year, and could be down to 8% by the end of the year.
Ridiculous. The employment stats are only so good because so many Irish are still leaving. it has some of the highest net migration stats in the developed world.
Property could hardly have fallen further. Dead cat bounce? The industrial production stats are nice but this is out of a terrible slump, at some point you always get a sharp uptick - we had the same.
But unlike us, Ireland is still stuck in the euro, which is now flirting with the total disaster of Deflation.
Still, at least they don't have to worry about losing a third of their country. We did that to them in 1919.
Ireland is boooooooommmming ! My properties are rebounding well. Still worth less than when I bought. But rental income makes a good profit because interest rates are low.
Has anyone considered the wild prospect that a Free Scotland might actually be better off, due to a can-do spirit born of creating a new nation?
Welcome back BAJ.
In see you've been watching Disney movies in your absence.
T
However, between here and there will be a nasty transition period, where a lot of people are disappointed that Scotland is not a socialist nirvana - something that will be compounded by a nasty combination of falling oil prices and falling oil volumes.
it was the 70 years before that which were a bit shit.
And really anyone saying Ireland is boomsville today ought to have relations there. The country is still exporting its people, GDP comparisons are meaningless since it's driven by an over valued currency and it;s only now that Dublin is starting to spring back to life, the rest of the country will be years behind.
Re Ireland: Industrial production last month was +18%, the highest number on record, property prices are rising, the Markit surveys are among the best in the world, and its 'employment optimism' index at +20 is literally the very best in the world. No, unemployment is not back to pre-crisis levels, but it is falling at a rapid rate, and the latest temporary staffing numbers would indicate it will have sub 10% unemployment by early next year, and could be down to 8% by the end of the year.
Ridiculous. The employment stats are only so good because so many Irish are still leaving. it has some of the highest net migration stats in the developed world.
Property could hardly have fallen further. Dead cat bounce? The industrial production stats are nice but this is out of a terrible slump, at some point you always get a sharp uptick - we had the same.
But unlike us, Ireland is still stuck in the euro, which is now flirting with the total disaster of Deflation.
On topic: Pretty unlikely, I think. We have an election in a few months' time.
Mind you, I'm enjoying the idea that this is somehow the Conservatives' fault.
The Government's proposals carry within them the virus that will begin to eat away, and eventually cause to unravel, the bonds that hold the United Kingdom together. It is not written into the White Paper, but the virus is there. The proposals are the first step on the way to an independent Scotland and the break-up of the United Kingdom. - Michael Ancram, 31 July 1997
Cameron could have offered three choices like Howard did in Australia in respect of becoming a Republic:
1. Status Quo
2. Devomax
3. Full Independence
He gambled that Status Quo will beat Independence. It still might. But with such a small margin that the issue will not go away and Scottish anger with regard to anything English will be so scathing that in some ways it would be better to part.
By the way, Devomax would have won handsomely.
Didn't all three main Unionist parties want a single question instead of a multi-choice including devomax?
And a multi-choice question would probably not have had a clear answer. It could easily have been something like 40% status quo, 30% devomax, 30% full independence, meaning we would just be in the same position a few years in the future. A straight in-out vote was more honest, had more chance of settling the issue for a generation or two, and gave the Scots a real choice.
The quote "Devomax would have won handsomely" is supposition and is not testable. It's quite possible that we would just have seen more rancour and disquiet.
Has anyone considered the wild prospect that a Free Scotland might actually be better off, due to a can-do spirit born of creating a new nation?
Welcome back BAJ.
In see you've been watching Disney movies in your absence.
TBF, Ireland has outperformed the UK in the last 20-odd years, going from a substantially lower GDP per capita, to a noticably higher one.
This is not because it's a member of the EU, but because they have adopted pro-business policies, such as a very low corporate rate, and have attracted a lot of manufacturing (particularly in technology and pharmaceuticals), as well as an increasing amount of financial services back office work.
Scotland, in the longer-term, will no follow the Irish model, and I have no doubt that they will prosper as a small-state, pro-business country.
However, between here and there will be a nasty transition period, where a lot of people are disappointed that Scotland is not a socialist nirvana - something that will be compounded by a nasty combination of falling oil prices and falling oil volumes.
it was the 70 years before that which were a bit shit.
And really anyone saying Ireland is boomsville today ought to have relations there. The country is still exporting its people, GDP comparisons are meaningless since it's driven by an over valued currency and it;s only now that Dublin is starting to spring back to life, the rest of the country will be years behind.
But small countries are always exporting and importing people in a way large countries are not: 40% of Luxembourg graduates work outside the country. That doesn't mean Luxemourg is a disaster zone that's exporting talent, it means that it's a small country and if your speciality is - say - nuclear fusion or analog semiconductor design then you'll be working abroad. The same would inevitably true of Scotland: it would have critical mass in certain parts of technology (software), engineering, and oil & gas; it would probably lose critical mass in most of the bits of financial services where it is currently strong. (It might continue to have CM in asset management, but we'll see...)
The small country argument can be used to say why migration flows are larger, as a share of population, but it can't be used to say that the direction of it doesn't matter.
Yes, but the five years to 1985 were appalling for Ireland, in terms of net migration. If you were a talented Irish person, you went to the US or the UK.
This should have ushered in a decade of disaster.
In fact the opposite happened, with GDP growth averaging more than 6% per annum in the next fifteen years.
"Moving on to more important stuff. I have updated my avatar to reflect my current favourites."
Are they the 3 inch wedgies you mentioned on here yesterday? The picture isn't very clear. I was hoping for a picture of your corset shoes! Had to go and bathe my wrists in cold water when I read about those.
If Ireland still had its own currency, why do you think it would not be strong right now? Ireland's debt-to-GDP is falling, and the country runs a current account surplus.
Has anyone considered the wild prospect that a Free Scotland might actually be better off, due to a can-do spirit born of creating a new nation?
Welcome back BAJ.
In see you've been watching Disney movies in your absence.
T
However, between here and there will be a nasty transition period, where a lot of people are disappointed that Scotland is not a socialist nirvana - something that will be compounded by a nasty combination of falling oil prices and falling oil volumes.
it was the 70 years before that which were a bit shit.
And really anyone saying Ireland is boomsville today ought to have relations there. The country is still exporting its people, GDP comparisons are meaningless since it's driven by an over valued currency and it;s only now that Dublin is starting to spring back to life, the rest of the country will be years behind.
Re Ireland: Industrial production last month was +18%, the highest number on record, property prices are rising, the Markit surveys are among the best in the world, and its 'employment optimism' index at +20 is literally the very best in the world. No, unemployment is not back to pre-crisis levels, but it is falling at a rapid rate, and the latest temporary staffing numbers would indicate it will have sub 10% unemployment by early next year, and could be down to 8% by the end of the year.
Ridiculous. The employment stats are only so good because so many Irish are still leaving. it has some of the highest net migration stats in the developed world.
Property could hardly have fallen further. Dead cat bounce? The industrial production stats are nice but this is out of a terrible slump, at some point you always get a sharp uptick - we had the same.
But unlike us, Ireland is still stuck in the euro, which is now flirting with the total disaster of Deflation.
Still, at least they don't have to worry about losing a third of their country. We did that to them in 1919.
Ireland is boooooooommmming ! My properties are rebounding well. Still worth less than when I bought. But rental income makes a good profit because interest rates are low.
Has anyone considered the wild prospect that a Free Scotland might actually be better off, due to a can-do spirit born of creating a new nation?
Welcome back BAJ.
In see you've been watching Disney movies in your absence.
T
However, between here and there will be a nasty transition period, where a lot of people are disappointed that Scotland is not a socialist nirvana - something that will be compounded by a nasty combination of falling oil prices and falling oil volumes.
it was the 70 years before that which were a bit shit.
And really anyone saying Ireland is boomsville today ought to have relations there. The country is still exporting its people, GDP comparisons are meaningless since it's driven by an over valued currency and it;s only now that Dublin is starting to spring back to life, the rest of the country will be years behind.
Re Ireland: Industrial production last month was +18%, the highest number on record, property prices are rising, the Markit surveys are among the best in the world, and its 'employment optimism' index at +20 is literally the very best in the world. No, unemployment is not back to pre-crisis levels, but it is falling at a rapid rate, and the latest temporary staffing numbers would indicate it will have sub 10% unemployment by early next year, and could be down to 8% by the end of the year.
Ridiculous. The employment stats are only so good because so many Irish are still leaving. it has some of the highest net migration stats in the developed world.
Property could hardly have fallen further. Dead cat bounce? The industrial production stats are nice but this is out of a terrible slump, at some point you always get a sharp uptick - we had the same.
But unlike us, Ireland is still stuck in the euro, which is now flirting with the total disaster of Deflation.
Still, at least they don't have to worry about losing a third of their country. We did that to them in 1919.
Ireland is boooooooommmming ! My properties are rebounding well. Still worth less than when I bought. But rental income makes a good profit because interest rates are low.
2) Until this week he has stayed out of the debate, rightly saying it was a matter for Scottish voters to decide. In fact, it can easily be argued that if he had got involved the situation now would be worse. His fingerprints on the loss are light and smudged. He can shrug and say: "I let the Scottish people have their say."
3) Labour is far more implicated in this loss than the Conservatives. They set up devolution, and ran the campaign for obvious reasons. If ‘Yes’ win, it will be in spite of the Yes campaign, not because of it. Their fingerprints (heavy clunking fist?) on a loss are heavy.
4) He is more popular than Miliband. Conservative MPs who want to get rid of him will have to ensure that any replacement will be as popular as Cameron. Despite any preferences we might have for other Conservative leaders, it is hard to pick ones that we can be sure will appeal more to the public as a whole.
5) Miliband will not call for him to go, for fear that he would have to go as well.
6) It is probably too late to hold a leadership election and get the new incumbent’s feet warm under the desk before the GE. And going into a GE with a caretaker leader has its own problems.
7) If Cameron goes, then there would be pressure for Miliband to go; after all, it’s Labour’s loss more than anything. It would be easy for Labour to pick a new leader who is more popular than Miliband.
8) He is more likely to win a majority in GE2015 if Scotland splits. This may not be as large an effect as some people suggest, but it does make the GE more winnable. That might make Cameron less likely to resign.
9) There will be months of negotiations before GE 2015, and having the PM change once, and potentially twice, in nine months hands all the initiative to the perfidious splitters.
This does not mean that he will not, or that Conservative. .MPs will not defenestrate him. IMHO if he does believe he needs to go, he will say he will do it after GE2015.
In my mind, the biggest mistake was not the oft-quoted devomax; all the leaders and parties agreed on the vote we have got, not just Cameron. No, the mistake has been this week’s shenanigans, offering the Scottish Parliament even more powers and increasing the democratic deficit. It reeks of desperation (which it surely is), creates more problems for the future and, like devomax and devolution before it, just delays a now-inevitable Scottish separation with even more anger and rancour.
I’ve said all along that any ‘Yes’ vote close to 50% will not answer the question for long, and another vote would soon occur. This is not Quebec.
Having said all that, it’s perfectly possible for him to resign. I just think it’s doubtful.
Has anyone considered the wild prospect that a Free Scotland might actually be better off, due to a can-do spirit born of creating a new nation?
Welcome back BAJ.
In see you've been watching Disney movies in your absence.
TBF, Ireland has outperformed the UK in the last 20-odd years, going from a substantially lower GDP per capita, to a noticably higher one.
This is not because it's a member of the EU, but because they have adopted pro-business policies, such as a very low corporate rate, and have attracted a lot of manufacturing (particularly in technology and pharmaceuticals), as well as an increasing amount of financial services back office work.
Scotland, in the longer-term, will no follow the Irish model, and I have no doubt that they will prosper as a small-state, pro-business country.
However, between here and there will be a nasty transition period, where a lot of people are disappointed that Scotland is not a socialist nirvana - something that will be compounded by a nasty combination of falling oil prices and falling oil volumes.
it was the 70 years before that which were a bit shit.
And really anyone saying Ireland is boomsville today ought to have relations there. The continue to have CM in asset management, but we'll see...)
The small country argument can be used to say why migration flows are larger, as a share of population, but it can't be used to say that the direction of it doesn't matter.
Yes, but the five years to 1985 were appalling for Ireland, in terms of net migration. If you were a talented Irish person, you went to the US or the UK.
This should have ushered in a decade of disaster.
In fact the opposite happened, with GDP growth averaging more than 6% per annum in the next fifteen years.
that Ireland had one of Europe's youngest populations doesn't appear to enter your calculations. When you have more grads than jobs year after year you don't worry too much about supply.
(Re Ireland, it's worth remembering that even though it's in the Eurozone, it's biggest two trade partners are the UK and the US, so it is much more tied into the success of those countries than the Eurozone.)
Mr. Llama, did you spot any typos in Sir Edric's Temple?
Also, lack of money. Plus, I feel it's something I should do myself.
And yes, I'm doomed. Nice not to play as Russia, though.
Thinking back, I think I did pick up on the odd typo here and there. What I certainly remember is the occasional use of wrong words, words that don't actually mean what in the context you seemed to think they meant. Not a big problem but something that can bring the reader up short and break immersion, and which a decent independent proof reader would have pointed out. I appreciate the financial issue.
Wait until you play Germany, for my money the Acme of Diplomacy positions.
Perhaps you'd be better telling Rory McIroy than me....
Try not to make cheap political points over the guy's decision. There are enough morons across the water doing that without morons over here joining in.
Excellent! I know of a property in the Irish midlands that was auctioned off last year for 95% less than it sold for in ~2007 - apparently a significant factor in the price was the threat of the property tax.
At the extremes, the price volatility has been unbelievable.
Tbf the kind of mindset that would seek to deny Scottish people the devolution they clearly wanted is pretty much a significant problem in keeping Scotland in the union. As it was a problem for keeping the Irish Free State in the union.
The better trick would have been to set up and independence v status quo referendum when the Referendums (Scotland and Wales) Act 1997 was passed. It is highly unlikely we would be where we are today if that had been done. But like Wilson before him, Blair always placed short-term political expediency above the best interests of the country as a whole.
Well that's all banker speak. The increase in activity isn't yet flowing in to people's pockets and nor will it for some time as a mountain of bank debt still has to be repaid and people have been hammered with extra taxes. While I welcome the good news this simply means there is the chance of some light at the end of the tunnel, but meaningful recovery which the citizens will feel is still a way off I'm afraid.
As for the small country argument it cuts both ways, there are some really shit small countries albania, greece, moldova. What you seem to be saying is an advanced country with a small population which is blessed with natural resources and that is not run by complete idiots has above average wealth. But the same can also apply to big countries - see Australia and Canada.
I'm not saying that at all: I am pointing out that as a consequence of:
1. Flexible labour markets 2. A small state 3. English as a first language 4. Low taxes 5. Export markets geared towards the UK and the US 6. Banks that were recapitalised and losses recognised 7. A relatively well educated workforce 8. An open-ness to foreign investment.
That Ireland is growing rapidly again. In fact, it would be more of a shock if it were not.
Mr. Llama, hmm. If in future you happen across any, do let me know (*cough*privately*cough*). Haven't been too bad for them, and they do happen even in the biggest of books. Republic of Thieves had water evapourating a few times. I think they corrected the spelling for the British release but got a shade over-excited putting the 'u' back in.
I wonder if Carney's statement will have an impact. It's more or less repeating what he said months ago, but may drag the debate towards mundane matters like what currency the country would use.
Nick Griffin @nickjgriffinbnp 7 hrs Disappointing that no British Nationalist websites have run calls to save the Union. Much of 'Scots' Yes pressure comes from Marxist Fenians
Perhaps you'd be better telling Rory McIroy than me....
As I waffled about (or explained in tedious detail, to be precise) earlier, the team is constituted so that it can be either UK or notUK, depending on your point of view. You claimed as fact that there was no UK team.
It's often and conveniently forgotten that not only did we contribute some £3.5 billion to the bailout of Ireland in 2010 but we also propped up the ailing Ulster Bank to the tune of some £10 billion. Ulster Bank has, I believe, branches in the Republic of Ireland.
The notion that any Government in London would, out of sheer vindictiveness, tolerate and accept the economic collapse of an independent Scotland is wholly absurd and deep down Salmond knows that and Cameron knows that too.
For all the bluster about dealing harshly with an independent Scotland, the truth is the social, financial and possibly political consequences of the economic collapse of an independent Scotland would be unsustainable.
The corollary is that voting YES next week won't lead to independence. The ballot paper should say:
"From where do you want your economic, taxation and interest rate policies controlled ?"
A) London Frankfurt
Even if you are right that in the end we would help Scotland (and I'm really not so sure), the clue is in the phrase "in the end". At first we would give them nothing - it would be politically so unpopular - we would only step in to bail them out if they were on the verge of total collapse (as Ireland was).
And IF we do bail them out, what do we demand in return? There will be payback.
Seems an unnecessarily venomous response from you. I have no problem with it. Indeed the all-Ireland team is clearly the natural choice. I was merely trying to poke fun at Jimmy's adoption of the BOC's risible propaganda.
"bah, will soon be out of Diplomacy. My own fault for massively cocking things up. I blame proofreading (which is easily the most tedious and awful part of writing)."
You may soon be forced out of the game but not necessarily. There are options. Did you follow the Death Match and see how Nick Palmer came back from a position almost as bad as your current one is. Going mercenary is another route - you make you last unit more valuable to your enemy than the benefit he would gain from destroying your last centre. It all depends on the diplomacy. Mmmmm, having thought about the level of diplomacy in the current game when whole turns go by without a single message, you are right you are naffed.
As for proof reading. I have mentioned this before - contract it out. Some people are very, very good at it and can do it quickly and easily in one pass. For the rest of the human race it is a mind numbing slog and proof reading one's own work is guaranteed to leave in typos and missed words.
@MorrisDancer You aren't out of the game yet, though it looks tricky. My embassy is of course always open.
I agree with Hurst Llama to be perfectly honest, the general level of diplomacy in the game has been dreadful.
72 AU 72 46 EN 42 25 GE 16 12 IT 14 14 RU 4 6 TU 3
Left number is the number of messages I have sent, right hand number is messages received.
Austria (HurstLlama)'s average message is longer than mine though I think which is why he is in perhaps the best position.
I have to say the lack of diplomacy from @ThescreamingEagles in particular has been sad to see in addition to the continual misorders. If I was in Turkey's shoes I'd certainly have asked France to invade the Ionian in order to give Austria something to think about but no such message. Know it's your first game but it's been very poor.
Tbf the kind of mindset that would seek to deny Scottish people the devolution they clearly wanted is pretty much a significant problem in keeping Scotland in the union. As it was a problem for keeping the Irish Free State in the union.
The better trick would have been to set up and independence v status quo referendum when the Referendums (Scotland and Wales) Act 1997 was passed. It is highly unlikely we would be where we are today if that had been done. But like Wilson before him, Blair always placed short-term political expediency above the best interests of the country as a whole.
Again, no, I think your short-term desperation to avoid devolution would have been more likely to end up with independence down than line than respecting the wishes of the people of Scotland.
Nick Griffin @nickjgriffinbnp 7 hrs Disappointing that no British Nationalist websites have run calls to save the Union. Much of 'Scots' Yes pressure comes from Marxist Fenians
I think we have a winner for the "comedy entries into the independence debate" competition.
Does anyone want to dig up Nixon and ask him for a view? Have Cheney or Bush called it for 'no'?
Seems an unnecessarily venomous response from you. I have no problem with it. Indeed the all-Ireland team is clearly the natural choice. I was merely trying to poke fun at Jimmy's adoption of the BOC's risible propaganda.
And presumably then the quid pro quo would be unilateral English control of Scotland's economy, in toto, and by about 2019 they end up less independent than when they started, all those years ago in 2014.
Surely it would be better to keep Scotland separate but insist on approving their budget in the same way that the European Central Bank does. That way all the blame can be kept within Scotland....
Nick Griffin @nickjgriffinbnp 7 hrs Disappointing that no British Nationalist websites have run calls to save the Union. Much of 'Scots' Yes pressure comes from Marxist Fenians
I think we have a winner for the "comedy entries into the independence debate" competition.
Does anyone want to dig up Nixon and ask him for a view? Have Cheney or Bush called it for 'no'?
Stop being arrogant and think only certain people can have views on this. STOP SNEERING
Excellent! I know of a property in the Irish midlands that was auctioned off last year for 95% less than it sold for in ~2007 - apparently a significant factor in the price was the threat of the property tax.
At the extremes, the price volatility has been unbelievable.
I went to an exquisite period town in the Rhineland last week. Bacharach. A stunning, stunning place. i was writing a travel article.
The guide there told me you can buy exceptionally beautiful period houses, with gardens, for well under €100,000.
Tempting. Shame the food is bollocks. But even as an investment....
Until recently (and excluding Munich), German property was cheaper (in unadjusted terms) than in 1985. If you adjust for inflation it looks even worse. If you look it as a percent of GDP, it's collapsed.
Nick Griffin @nickjgriffinbnp 7 hrs Disappointing that no British Nationalist websites have run calls to save the Union. Much of 'Scots' Yes pressure comes from Marxist Fenians
I think we have a winner for the "comedy entries into the independence debate" competition.
Does anyone want to dig up Nixon and ask him for a view? Have Cheney or Bush called it for 'no'?
Stop being arrogant and think only certain people can have views on this. STOP SNEERING
Anyone can have a view on anything that they want. I was laughing at Kissinger managing to hurt the chances of his preferred outcome by expressing it out loud.
Mr. Llama, hmm. If in future you happen across any, do let me know (*cough*privately*cough*). Haven't been too bad for them, and they do happen even in the biggest of books. Republic of Thieves had water evapourating a few times. I think they corrected the spelling for the British release but got a shade over-excited putting the 'u' back in.
I wonder if Carney's statement will have an impact. It's more or less repeating what he said months ago, but may drag the debate towards mundane matters like what currency the country would use.
Hi Morris, have sent you an mail on proof-reading to yourPB account - let me know if you have any trouble reading it.
Again, no, I think your short-term desperation to avoid devolution would have been more likely to end up with independence down than line than respecting the wishes of the people of Scotland.
It was not 'a short-term desperation to avoid devolution', but out of recognition of the fact that Blair's devolution settlement was incompatible, in the long run, with the maintenance of the United Kingdom as a state. As for your constant references to the 'wishes of the people of Scotland', this is nationalist polemic. The Scottish electorate only have different political representation from the rest of the United Kingdom because the Westminster Parliament foolishly choose to give it to them, despite being under no obligation to do so. The nonsense about a sovereign Scottish people going back to the 1320 Declaration of Arbroath is rejected by all serious historians.
Mr. Llama, hmm. If in future you happen across any, do let me know (*cough*privately*cough*). Haven't been too bad for them, and they do happen even in the biggest of books. Republic of Thieves had water evapourating a few times. I think they corrected the spelling for the British release but got a shade over-excited putting the 'u' back in.
I wonder if Carney's statement will have an impact. It's more or less repeating what he said months ago, but may drag the debate towards mundane matters like what currency the country would use.
Hi Morris, have sent you an mail on proof-reading to yourPB account - let me know if you have any trouble reading it.
Why, are there loads of spelling mistakes etc in it?
"2 [C]onservative councillors in Clacton defect to UKIP" (Andrew Sinclair)
Have there been others, or is that the grand total?
Andrew Sinclair @andrewpolitics 4m Interestingly the two councillors who've joined UKIP in Clacton say one of reasons for leaving was that Matthew Parris article
Even if it isn't really, the fact it's the stated reason says a lot.
I think the parallel to Ireland in the southern hemisphere would be New Zealand with Australia playing the part of the UK. I believe Kiwis can live and work in Australia (and many do around Brisbane and Sydney) without permits or visa.
Mrs Stodge came to the UK for work (and eventually met me) after her graduation but many Kiwi graduates head to Australia.
Nick Griffin @nickjgriffinbnp 7 hrs Disappointing that no British Nationalist websites have run calls to save the Union. Much of 'Scots' Yes pressure comes from Marxist Fenians
I think we have a winner for the "comedy entries into the independence debate" competition.
Does anyone want to dig up Nixon and ask him for a view? Have Cheney or Bush called it for 'no'?
Stop being arrogant and think only certain people can have views on this. STOP SNEERING
Anyone can have a view on anything that they want. I was laughing at Kissinger managing to hurt the chances of his preferred outcome by expressing it out loud.
Oh sorry didn't realise you are really really really clever and can see that he has made a huge mistake in expressing an opinion.
Again, no, I think your short-term desperation to avoid devolution would have been more likely to end up with independence down than line than respecting the wishes of the people of Scotland.
It was not 'a short-term desperation to avoid devolution', but out of recognition of the fact that Blair's devolution settlement was incompatible, in the long run, with the maintenance of the United Kingdom as a state. As for your constant references to the 'wishes of the people of Scotland', this is nationalist polemic. The Scottish electorate only have different political representation from the rest of the United Kingdom because the Westminster Parliament foolishly choose to give it to them, despite being under no obligation to do so. The nonsense about a sovereign Scottish people going back to the 1320 Declaration of Arbroath is rejected by all serious historians.
Yeah, the union wouldnt have lasted long with you in charge.
Presenting the solution as a Labour solution only & continuing to use "we". He's a backbencher who never turns up in parliament FFS. Apparently its Ed Miliband's idea.
Anyone in England will go nuts about what he's proposing as it costs us all more money.
Cameron is either completely insane to allow this in his name or is more machiavellian than the great Italian himself.
Nah, there was a clear message to Labour both on this forum and in Westminster - the problem is your voters, please sort it in whatever way necessary. The way to appeal to hard-core Labour voters in Scotland is to have Miliband telling the Tories that they'll lose and Brown taking credit for the proposals. It's partisan week. Do you want to win or don't you? Cameron does, it's why he's going along with it.
Presenting the solution as a Labour solution only & continuing to use "we". He's a backbencher who never turns up in parliament FFS. Apparently its Ed Miliband's idea.
Anyone in England will go nuts about what he's proposing as it costs us all more money.
Cameron is either completely insane to allow this in his name or is more machiavellian than the great Italian himself.
Nah, there was a clear message to Labour both on this forum and in Westminster - the problem is your voters, please sort it in whatever way necessary. The way to appeal to hard-core Labour voters in Scotland is to have Miliband telling the Tories that they'll lose and Brown taking credit for the proposals. It's partisan week. Do you want to win or don't you? Cameron does, it's why he's going along with it.
Well thats fine to a point but either you (ie Labour) are telling untruths about what Labour would do for Scotland or you are handing over more power and money from the rest of the UK. Might keep Scotland in the union but will it keep you votes across the non Scotland part of the UK? I don't believe the rest of the UK will accept more concessions to Scotland .
Yeah, the union wouldnt have lasted long with you in charge.
It's in remarkably good health since those who thought they could kill nationalism "stone dead" started implementing their policies. It all goes back to whether Willie Ross or Richard Crossman was right in the 1960s, and, increasingly, it looks as if it was the former.
Yeah, the union wouldnt have lasted long with you in charge.
It's in remarkably good health since those who thought they could kill nationalism "stone dead" started implementing their policies. It all goes back to whether Willie Ross or Richard Crossman was right in the 1960s, and, increasingly, it looks as if it was the former.
Tbf a large part was amputated long before the Willie and Richard show or indeed devolution in its current form.
Excellent! I know of a property in the Irish midlands that was auctioned off last year for 95% less than it sold for in ~2007 - apparently a significant factor in the price was the threat of the property tax.
At the extremes, the price volatility has been unbelievable.
I went to an exquisite period town in the Rhineland last week. Bacharach. A stunning, stunning place. i was writing a travel article.
The guide there told me you can buy exceptionally beautiful period houses, with gardens, for well under €100,000.
Nick Griffin @nickjgriffinbnp 7 hrs Disappointing that no British Nationalist websites have run calls to save the Union. Much of 'Scots' Yes pressure comes from Marxist Fenians
I think we have a winner for the "comedy entries into the independence debate" competition.
Does anyone want to dig up Nixon and ask him for a view? Have Cheney or Bush called it for 'no'?
Stop being arrogant and think only certain people can have views on this. STOP SNEERING
Anyone can have a view on anything that they want. I was laughing at Kissinger managing to hurt the chances of his preferred outcome by expressing it out loud.
Oh sorry didn't realise you are really really really clever
No need to apologise, you've seen the error of your ways and that's what's important.
"Austria (HurstLlama)'s average message is longer than mine though I think which is why he is in perhaps the best position"
A good Diplomacy player never stops trying to influence other players, to get them to accept a view of the world that other than it actually is. France (i.e Pulpstar) is on every measure clearly in the strongest position yet even here, in a post away from the game, he drops in the little stirrer - Austria is in the lead.
Andy Cooke used to be superb at this confecting discussions and indulging in outright forgery, even down to style analysis so they "sounded" right, and much more. Of course, you can only do that in a game where there is diplomacy.
Cameron and Osbourne (surprised by him) have looked weak this week with their effective begging for Scotland to vote 'no' . I can see why they might want Scotland to stay but its not the end of the world if they don't both for the countries and the tories . It might be worse for Labour given how many MPs they will lose but that's their problem
Erm, show me where I insulted you again Neil? Either today or prior to my sabbatical. Clue: you won't find that post because I haven't. Your moron comment was unedifying.
Excellent! I know of a property in the Irish midlands that was auctioned off last year for 95% less than it sold for in ~2007 - apparently a significant factor in the price was the threat of the property tax.
At the extremes, the price volatility has been unbelievable.
I went to an exquisite period town in the Rhineland last week. Bacharach. A stunning, stunning place. i was writing a travel article.
The guide there told me you can buy exceptionally beautiful period houses, with gardens, for well under €100,000.
Tempting. Shame the food is bollocks. But even as an investment....
That does look nice, Sean. But onto a more realistic investment, one that’s open to those of us without a spare €100k in the bank…. There’s a 10% arb available on the indyref yes% markets;
Bwin/Gamebookers/Partybets: under 45% - 3.75
Ladbrokes 45-50% - 3
Betfair Yes - 3.35
If you weight your stakes: 1:1.25:1.16 repectively, then you get a 9.9% total return (after BF commission).
IMO the value is at betfair though - if you agree and just want a free bet on yes, then weight 1:1.25:1.5 for a risk free 29.3% return on your stake if yes wins.
Disclaimer; bets like this are risky as you are subject to limited stakes/odds changes. One for the pro-punters.
Excellent! I know of a property in the Irish midlands that was auctioned off last year for 95% less than it sold for in ~2007 - apparently a significant factor in the price was the threat of the property tax.
At the extremes, the price volatility has been unbelievable.
I went to an exquisite period town in the Rhineland last week. Bacharach. A stunning, stunning place. i was writing a travel article.
The guide there told me you can buy exceptionally beautiful period houses, with gardens, for well under €100,000.
Tempting. Shame the food is bollocks. But even as an investment....
Investing in property in a country with a falling population?
True. And I am most unlikely to do it. It's just.... coming from London... then finding a highly civilised place just two hours away by plane, and glorious houses in period towns for about £60,000.
Gob-smacking. But I would tire of the sausages swiftly. And the climate is quite dreary.
I'm a little surprised how volatile the BF odds are. Yes is down to 3.25 now. It's been dancing between 3-3.4 today on the occasions i've checked. Lots of speculators perhaps? Or maybe we're starting to see small time investors dipping their toe in to hedge risk?
Excellent! I know of a property in the Irish midlands that was auctioned off last year for 95% less than it sold for in ~2007 - apparently a significant factor in the price was the threat of the property tax.
At the extremes, the price volatility has been unbelievable.
I went to an exquisite period town in the Rhineland last week. Bacharach. A stunning, stunning place. i was writing a travel article.
The guide there told me you can buy exceptionally beautiful period houses, with gardens, for well under €100,000.
Tempting. Shame the food is bollocks. But even as an investment....
Investing in property in a country with a falling population?
True. And I am most unlikely to do it. It's just.... coming from London... then finding a highly civilised place just two hours away by plane, and glorious houses in period towns for about £60,000.
Gob-smacking. But I would tire of the sausages swiftly. And the climate is quite dreary.
Unlike most people, I love German food.
Me too. But in a place that looks as nice as that for a house with such a low price there has to be a massive draw back or two. Maybe internet access is on 56k dial-up only or the local health service is run by the same people as did Dachau, or the toilets don't work properly being the wrong shape or something.
Again, no, I think your short-term desperation to avoid devolution would have been more likely to end up with independence down than line than respecting the wishes of the people of Scotland.
It was not 'a short-term desperation to avoid devolution', but out of recognition of the fact that Blair's devolution settlement was incompatible, in the long run, with the maintenance of the United Kingdom as a state. As for your constant references to the 'wishes of the people of Scotland', this is nationalist polemic. The Scottish electorate only have different political representation from the rest of the United Kingdom because the Westminster Parliament foolishly choose to give it to them, despite being under no obligation to do so. The nonsense about a sovereign Scottish people going back to the 1320 Declaration of Arbroath is rejected by all serious historians.
Yeah, the union wouldnt have lasted long with you in charge.
Devolution, however, does not kill local nationalism. Power devolved is power retained. The local nationalists will always argue that any local problems are caused by insufficient powers to the devolved administration.
For that reason, devomax should not be offered. The Scots have a generous settlement which is denied to the other 92% of the UK. They can take it or leave it.
Cameron and Osbourne (surprised by him) have looked weak this week with their effective begging for Scotland to vote 'no' . I can see why they might want Scotland to stay but its not the end of the world if they don't both for the countries and the tories . It might be worse for Labour given how many MPs they will lose but that's their problem
It's all beginning to get a bit embarrassing isn't it? Like the scene at the end of Gone With The Wind where Scarlett begs Rhett to stay when he's about to walk out the door.
What does he say?
"Leave us some dignity to remember out of our marriage."
Westminster will be going through the "Bunny Boiler" phase next, mark my words...
Presenting the solution as a Labour solution only & continuing to use "we". He's a backbencher who never turns up in parliament FFS. Apparently its Ed Miliband's idea.
Anyone in England will go nuts about what he's proposing as it costs us all more money.
Cameron is either completely insane to allow this in his name or is more machiavellian than the great Italian himself.
Nah, there was a clear message to Labour both on this forum and in Westminster - the problem is your voters, please sort it in whatever way necessary. The way to appeal to hard-core Labour voters in Scotland is to have Miliband telling the Tories that they'll lose and Brown taking credit for the proposals. It's partisan week. Do you want to win or don't you? Cameron does, it's why he's going along with it.
Well thats fine to a point but either you (ie Labour) are telling untruths about what Labour would do for Scotland or you are handing over more power and money from the rest of the UK. Might keep Scotland in the union but will it keep you votes across the non Scotland part of the UK? I don't believe the rest of the UK will accept more concessions to Scotland .
Could this be the known unknown? Till a few weeks ago Scotland would hardly have featured in a list of the main issues facing the UK. Now it will, and in either case not in a particularly good light for Labour. 1) It's a YES - who do you trust to get the best deal for rUK? Tories or Labour 2) It's a NO - EVFEL, WLQ, etc. Who do you trust to get a better deal for EWNI.
Interestingly, I think only the Tories and SNP will increase their seat tally in Scotland. Tories, albeit marginally.
Well thats fine to a point but either you (ie Labour) are telling untruths about what Labour would do for Scotland or you are handing over more power and money from the rest of the UK. Might keep Scotland in the union but will it keep you votes across the non Scotland part of the UK? I don't believe the rest of the UK will accept more concessions to Scotland .
What form do you think the non-acceptance will take? The three main parties have all said they support the plan. I don't think they'll renege. The "don't much care really" attitude of most English people to the Scottish decision cuts both ways - they're also not much bothered if Scotland gets more devolution as a reward for saying No, even without any quid pro quo.
Cameron and Osbourne (surprised by him) have looked weak this week with their effective begging for Scotland to vote 'no' . I can see why they might want Scotland to stay but its not the end of the world if they don't both for the countries and the tories . It might be worse for Labour given how many MPs they will lose but that's their problem
It's all beginning to get a bit embarrassing isn't it? Like the scene at the end of Gone With The Wind where Scarlett begs Rhett to stay when he's about to walk out the door.
What does he say?
"Leave us some dignity to remember out of our marriage."
Westminster will be going through the "Bunny Boiler" phase next, mark my words...
However, they are copying the Quebecois playbook - and it worked, there.
We'll see if it comes to anything. My guess is that the more the Scot's are begged to stay (by the Westminster elite) the more they'll want to leave (probably)
It all just looks chaotic and panic-stricken, IMO. The BT campaign has got to be the worst political campaign I've ever seen really - From abject complacency to panic-driven begging.
Cameron and Osbourne (surprised by him) have looked weak this week with their effective begging for Scotland to vote 'no' . I can see why they might want Scotland to stay but its not the end of the world if they don't both for the countries and the tories . It might be worse for Labour given how many MPs they will lose but that's their problem
It's all beginning to get a bit embarrassing isn't it? Like the scene at the end of Gone With The Wind where Scarlett begs Rhett to stay when he's about to walk out the door.
What does he say?
"Leave us some dignity to remember out of our marriage."
Westminster will be going through the "Bunny Boiler" phase next, mark my words...
However, they are copying the Quebecois playbook - and it worked, there.
The difference there was the Prime Minster of Canada was a Quebecian.
On topic, if dave does win the next election, then Javid could be in a good position to succeed him in a few years time, especially if Osborne & Boris lose their mojo. As a general cover-lots-of-scenarios punt, it's a half decent 50/1.
I'm coming to the conclusion that it is dangerous to remove the undecideds from the polling data when considering who is "ahead". In a normal vote they melt away - but in a high turnout referendum there could very well be people heading to the polling station who have yet to make up their mind.
Well thats fine to a point but either you (ie Labour) are telling untruths about what Labour would do for Scotland or you are handing over more power and money from the rest of the UK. Might keep Scotland in the union but will it keep you votes across the non Scotland part of the UK? I don't believe the rest of the UK will accept more concessions to Scotland .
What form do you think the non-acceptance will take? The three main parties have all said they support the plan. I don't think they'll renege. The "don't much care really" attitude of most English people to the Scottish decision cuts both ways - they're also not much bothered if Scotland gets more devolution as a reward for saying No, even without any quid pro quo.
So what you're saying is that seeing as most voters can't tell Stork from butter, we will try them with a little lard instead.
Nice place and I was impressed by the size, if not the condition, of the garden in a town centre house. It probably needs 20 grand spending on it (kitchen, bathroom and what appears to be attic all need work aside from the garden) but at that base asking price that isn't an issue. Something like that would be ideal for Herself and me. However, as I say, there has to be some chunky drawbacks. Nothing in life is that good a deal.
The second house is even nicer, and superb views, but that main road outside? Nah, Not even for less than 100k
On topic, if dave does win the next election, then Javid could be in a good position to succeed dave in a few years time, especially if Osborne & Boris lose their mojo. As a general cover-lots-of-scenarios punt, it's a half decent 50/1.
Better than a lottery ticket at least.
Good to see you posting here again Pong after a summer's absence. Here's hoping you stay around at least until the GE ..... you're one of the site's better tipsters which are thin enough on the ground at the best of times.
On topic, if dave does win the next election, then Javid could be in a good position to succeed dave in a few years time, especially if Osborne & Boris lose their mojo. As a general cover-lots-of-scenarios punt, it's a half decent 50/1.
Better than a lottery ticket at least.
Good to see you posting here again Pong after a summer's absence. Here's hoping you stay around at least until the GE ..... you're one of the site's better tipsters which are thin enough on the ground at the best of times.
I have just said below that there isn't a UK Olympic team - because there isn't. That's a statement of fact. No amount of waffling from you will change that simple fact.
Perhaps you should tell Team GB your theory.
www.teamgb.com/ "Official site of the UK olympic team."
10. Cameron resigning would make the Conservatives 'own' the loss. At the moment, a good argument can be made that Labour own the failure: after all, the 'No' campaign was led by Labour stalwarts. Cameron resigning would make it easy for Labour to point to the resignation as a sign of guilt.
As it happens, I made a mistake. In point 3) I wrote "If ‘Yes’ win, it will be in spite of the Yes campaign, not because of it." I actually meant the No campaign, but it works equally well for Yes. Neither campaign has been very good, which is why it looks as though there is not going to be a clear winner. (*)
Genuine question - does anyone know how Montenegro is doing since independence?
Was there a few weeks ago. What do you need to know? Lots of Russian and Yugo tourists. Prices not cheap but not expensive. Roads seemed upgraded but not dual carriageway.
Well thats fine to a point but either you (ie Labour) are telling untruths about what Labour would do for Scotland or you are handing over more power and money from the rest of the UK. Might keep Scotland in the union but will it keep you votes across the non Scotland part of the UK? I don't believe the rest of the UK will accept more concessions to Scotland .
What form do you think the non-acceptance will take? The three main parties have all said they support the plan. I don't think they'll renege. The "don't much care really" attitude of most English people to the Scottish decision cuts both ways - they're also not much bothered if Scotland gets more devolution as a reward for saying No, even without any quid pro quo.
So what you're saying is that seeing as most voters can't tell Stork from butter, we will try them with a little lard instead.
Golly, that's a rave from the grave. Stork - do they still make it? Urgh...
Nice place and I was impressed by the size, if not the condition, of the garden in a town centre house. It probably needs 20 grand spending on it (kitchen, bathroom and what appears to be attic all need work aside from the garden) but at that base asking price that isn't an issue. Something like that would be ideal for Herself and me. However, as I say, there has to be some chunky drawbacks. Nothing in life is that good a deal.
The second house is even nicer, and superb views, but that main road outside? Nah, Not even for less than 100k
From the conversations on here last week, might the chunky drawbacks be (ahem) the shelf toilets?
Well thats fine to a point but either you (ie Labour) are telling untruths about what Labour would do for Scotland or you are handing over more power and money from the rest of the UK. Might keep Scotland in the union but will it keep you votes across the non Scotland part of the UK? I don't believe the rest of the UK will accept more concessions to Scotland .
What form do you think the non-acceptance will take? The three main parties have all said they support the plan. I don't think they'll renege. The "don't much care really" attitude of most English people to the Scottish decision cuts both ways - they're also not much bothered if Scotland gets more devolution as a reward for saying No, even without any quid pro quo.
Are you not picking up any anger from voters on then doorstep then, Nick? Not in relation to the "Home Rule Bill", that is too new to have registered yet, but in general against the main three parties? Perhaps your part of the Midlands is more placid and forgiving than Rural Sussex. Perhaps I have an attraction for angry punters. Perhaps the nature of the business is that the people who want to talk to us are the people who, sort of, share our views. I don't know but it seems to me there are lots of very cross people out there now and an extra special settlement for Scotland, if it is perceived at their expense, is not going to boost the vote share of the main parties.
I'm coming to the conclusion that it is dangerous to remove the undecideds from the polling data when considering who is "ahead". In a normal vote they melt away - but in a high turnout referendum there could very well be people heading to the polling station who have yet to make up their mind.
That could well swing it for No.
Maybe you need a second question ie if you are definitely going to vote which side are you currently leaning towards?
Well thats fine to a point but either you (ie Labour) are telling untruths about what Labour would do for Scotland or you are handing over more power and money from the rest of the UK. Might keep Scotland in the union but will it keep you votes across the non Scotland part of the UK? I don't believe the rest of the UK will accept more concessions to Scotland .
What form do you think the non-acceptance will take? The three main parties have all said they support the plan. I don't think they'll renege. The "don't much care really" attitude of most English people to the Scottish decision cuts both ways - they're also not much bothered if Scotland gets more devolution as a reward for saying No, even without any quid pro quo.
So what you're saying is that seeing as most voters can't tell Stork from butter, we will try them with a little lard instead.
Golly, that's a rave from the grave. Stork - do they still make it? Urgh...
Good evening. What's the collective PB view of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg's decision to campaign in Scotland tomorrow? And flying the Saltire over Downing Street?
Well thats fine to a point but either you (ie Labour) are telling untruths about what Labour would do for Scotland or you are handing over more power and money from the rest of the UK. Might keep Scotland in the union but will it keep you votes across the non Scotland part of the UK? I don't believe the rest of the UK will accept more concessions to Scotland .
What form do you think the non-acceptance will take? The three main parties have all said they support the plan. I don't think they'll renege. The "don't much care really" attitude of most English people to the Scottish decision cuts both ways - they're also not much bothered if Scotland gets more devolution as a reward for saying No, even without any quid pro quo.
The non-acceptance will be public opinion. The leaders say they support this plan at the moment, but likely Scottish intransigence will give them ample room to say: "The Scots aren't playing ball and/or are negotiating in bad faith."
And then there's the possibility that the leaders during the negotiation will be the same leaders we have now (despite my previous posts).
Devomax was always a barmy idea that will be hard to sell to the EW&NI public which is why, despite what Surby says, all three main UK parties wanted a straight in-out question. (*) The only way it would work is if we moved to a more federal system, and that's a whole other ballgame.
If public opinion in EW&NI shifts against any deal (and there are good reasons why they might be angry at WestLothian++) then the first party to change position will benefit.
Comments
Apart from that...
As for the small country argument it cuts both ways, there are some really shit small countries albania, greece, moldova. What you seem to be saying is an advanced country with a small population which is blessed with natural resources and that is not run by complete idiots has above average wealth. But the same can also apply to big countries - see Australia and Canada.
Of course Devomax would have won.
But then Cameron would have been criticised for allowing the middle option (that obviously everyone would pick), and instead he should have chosen the 2-question option (in/out), rather than push everyone further towards a fedUK.
;-)
Probably. The Tory party never seems to encourage its ex-leaders to hang around for long, but Hammond will not be the next leader, nor will May. Tory leaders seem to come from flankers in the second round of voting. People so unthought of that nobody hates them enough to block them. Sajid Javid would be a smart move however.
Moving on to more important stuff. I have updated my avatar to reflect my current favourites.
Also, lack of money. Plus, I feel it's something I should do myself.
And yes, I'm doomed. Nice not to play as Russia, though.
And, in fact, lots of talented Irish left in 1995-2000, even as the economy was growing at 6% or so per year.
Small countries have more people come and go than big ones shocker.
Employment - in terms of absolute number of people, although well below 2007 levels, has been consistently rising for some time (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland/employed-persons).
And a multi-choice question would probably not have had a clear answer. It could easily have been something like 40% status quo, 30% devomax, 30% full independence, meaning we would just be in the same position a few years in the future. A straight in-out vote was more honest, had more chance of settling the issue for a generation or two, and gave the Scots a real choice.
The quote "Devomax would have won handsomely" is supposition and is not testable. It's quite possible that we would just have seen more rancour and disquiet.
This should have ushered in a decade of disaster.
In fact the opposite happened, with GDP growth averaging more than 6% per annum in the next fifteen years.
"Moving on to more important stuff. I have updated my avatar to reflect my current favourites."
Are they the 3 inch wedgies you mentioned on here yesterday? The picture isn't very clear. I was hoping for a picture of your corset shoes! Had to go and bathe my wrists in cold water when I read about those.
If Ireland still had its own currency, why do you think it would not be strong right now? Ireland's debt-to-GDP is falling, and the country runs a current account surplus.
1) He is under no obligation to.
2) Until this week he has stayed out of the debate, rightly saying it was a matter for Scottish voters to decide. In fact, it can easily be argued that if he had got involved the situation now would be worse. His fingerprints on the loss are light and smudged. He can shrug and say: "I let the Scottish people have their say."
3) Labour is far more implicated in this loss than the Conservatives. They set up devolution, and ran the campaign for obvious reasons. If ‘Yes’ win, it will be in spite of the Yes campaign, not because of it. Their fingerprints (heavy clunking fist?) on a loss are heavy.
4) He is more popular than Miliband. Conservative MPs who want to get rid of him will have to ensure that any replacement will be as popular as Cameron. Despite any preferences we might have for other Conservative leaders, it is hard to pick ones that we can be sure will appeal more to the public as a whole.
5) Miliband will not call for him to go, for fear that he would have to go as well.
6) It is probably too late to hold a leadership election and get the new incumbent’s feet warm under the desk before the GE. And going into a GE with a caretaker leader has its own problems.
7) If Cameron goes, then there would be pressure for Miliband to go; after all, it’s Labour’s loss more than anything. It would be easy for Labour to pick a new leader who is more popular than Miliband.
8) He is more likely to win a majority in GE2015 if Scotland splits. This may not be as large an effect as some people suggest, but it does make the GE more winnable. That might make Cameron less likely to resign.
9) There will be months of negotiations before GE 2015, and having the PM change once, and potentially twice, in nine months hands all the initiative to the perfidious splitters.
This does not mean that he will not, or that Conservative. .MPs will not defenestrate him. IMHO if he does believe he needs to go, he will say he will do it after GE2015.
In my mind, the biggest mistake was not the oft-quoted devomax; all the leaders and parties agreed on the vote we have got, not just Cameron. No, the mistake has been this week’s shenanigans, offering the Scottish Parliament even more powers and increasing the democratic deficit. It reeks of desperation (which it surely is), creates more problems for the future and, like devomax and devolution before it, just delays a now-inevitable Scottish separation with even more anger and rancour.
I’ve said all along that any ‘Yes’ vote close to 50% will not answer the question for long, and another vote would soon occur. This is not Quebec.
Having said all that, it’s perfectly possible for him to resign. I just think it’s doubtful.
that, basic principles of self-preservation.
Perhaps you'd be better telling Rory McIroy than me....
Wait until you play Germany, for my money the Acme of Diplomacy positions.
As JJ says down below, that's the killer.
At the extremes, the price volatility has been unbelievable.
1. Flexible labour markets
2. A small state
3. English as a first language
4. Low taxes
5. Export markets geared towards the UK and the US
6. Banks that were recapitalised and losses recognised
7. A relatively well educated workforce
8. An open-ness to foreign investment.
That Ireland is growing rapidly again. In fact, it would be more of a shock if it were not.
I wonder if Carney's statement will have an impact. It's more or less repeating what he said months ago, but may drag the debate towards mundane matters like what currency the country would use.
'Henry Kissinger: ‘Anything that makes Britain smaller I do not welcome’
The former US Secretary of State believes Scottish independence would damage the special relationship'
http://tinyurl.com/qggombn
Nick Griffin @nickjgriffinbnp 7 hrs
Disappointing that no British Nationalist websites have run calls to save the Union. Much of 'Scots' Yes pressure comes from Marxist Fenians
Seems an unnecessarily venomous response from you. I have no problem with it. Indeed the all-Ireland team is clearly the natural choice. I was merely trying to poke fun at Jimmy's adoption of the BOC's risible propaganda.
I agree with Hurst Llama to be perfectly honest, the general level of diplomacy in the game has been dreadful.
72 AU 72
46 EN 42
25 GE 16
12 IT 14
14 RU 4
6 TU 3
Left number is the number of messages I have sent, right hand number is messages received.
Austria (HurstLlama)'s average message is longer than mine though I think which is why he is in perhaps the best position.
I have to say the lack of diplomacy from @ThescreamingEagles in particular has been sad to see in addition to the continual misorders. If I was in Turkey's shoes I'd certainly have asked France to invade the Ionian in order to give Austria something to think about but no such message. Know it's your first game but it's been very poor.
Does anyone want to dig up Nixon and ask him for a view? Have Cheney or Bush called it for 'no'?
Have there been others, or is that the grand total?
I had best not post those in that case.
Really Mr Llama, you need to get out more.....
Interestingly the two councillors who've joined UKIP in Clacton say one of reasons for leaving was that Matthew Parris article
Even if it isn't really, the fact it's the stated reason says a lot.
Mrs Stodge came to the UK for work (and eventually met me) after her graduation but many Kiwi graduates head to Australia.
From a venomous response to a childish one that does you no credit. Grow up.
I don't believe the rest of the UK will accept more concessions to Scotland .
In his last post @PulpStar said,
"Austria (HurstLlama)'s average message is longer than mine though I think which is why he is in perhaps the best position"
A good Diplomacy player never stops trying to influence other players, to get them to accept a view of the world that other than it actually is. France (i.e Pulpstar) is on every measure clearly in the strongest position yet even here, in a post away from the game, he drops in the little stirrer - Austria is in the lead.
Andy Cooke used to be superb at this confecting discussions and indulging in outright forgery, even down to style analysis so they "sounded" right, and much more. Of course, you can only do that in a game where there is diplomacy.
It compared the UK jobs market very favourably to both the US and the EU.
I'm not sure his message is what the TUC was wanting to hear - basically low wage growth has kept interest rates low.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2014/speech754.pdf
Bwin/Gamebookers/Partybets:
under 45% - 3.75
Ladbrokes
45-50% - 3
Betfair
Yes - 3.35
If you weight your stakes: 1:1.25:1.16 repectively, then you get a 9.9% total return (after BF commission).
IMO the value is at betfair though - if you agree and just want a free bet on yes, then weight 1:1.25:1.5 for a risk free 29.3% return on your stake if yes wins.
Disclaimer; bets like this are risky as you are subject to limited stakes/odds changes. One for the pro-punters.
Interesting.
For that reason, devomax should not be offered. The Scots have a generous settlement which is denied to the other 92% of the UK. They can take it or leave it.
What does he say?
"Leave us some dignity to remember out of our marriage."
Westminster will be going through the "Bunny Boiler" phase next, mark my words...
Could this be the known unknown? Till a few weeks ago Scotland would hardly have featured in a list of the main issues facing the UK. Now it will, and in either case not in a particularly good light for Labour.
1) It's a YES - who do you trust to get the best deal for rUK? Tories or Labour
2) It's a NO - EVFEL, WLQ, etc. Who do you trust to get a better deal for EWNI.
Interestingly, I think only the Tories and SNP will increase their seat tally in Scotland. Tories, albeit marginally.
It all just looks chaotic and panic-stricken, IMO. The BT campaign has got to be the worst political campaign I've ever seen really - From abject complacency to panic-driven begging.
Dear oh dear...
Better than a lottery ticket at least.
That could well swing it for No.
The second house is even nicer, and superb views, but that main road outside? Nah, Not even for less than 100k
That was a decent bet, that.
10. Cameron resigning would make the Conservatives 'own' the loss. At the moment, a good argument can be made that Labour own the failure: after all, the 'No' campaign was led by Labour stalwarts. Cameron resigning would make it easy for Labour to point to the resignation as a sign of guilt.
As it happens, I made a mistake. In point 3) I wrote "If ‘Yes’ win, it will be in spite of the Yes campaign, not because of it." I actually meant the No campaign, but it works equally well for Yes. Neither campaign has been very good, which is why it looks as though there is not going to be a clear winner. (*)
(*) Famous last words.
Was there a few weeks ago.
What do you need to know?
Lots of Russian and Yugo tourists. Prices not cheap but not expensive. Roads seemed upgraded but not dual carriageway.
;-)
And that is relevant why? My point was that there is no UK team, merely a GB team.
And then there's the possibility that the leaders during the negotiation will be the same leaders we have now (despite my previous posts).
Devomax was always a barmy idea that will be hard to sell to the EW&NI public which is why, despite what Surby says, all three main UK parties wanted a straight in-out question. (*) The only way it would work is if we moved to a more federal system, and that's a whole other ballgame.
If public opinion in EW&NI shifts against any deal (and there are good reasons why they might be angry at WestLothian++) then the first party to change position will benefit.
(*) I hope I've got that right.