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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’ve backed Philip Hammond as next Prime Minister at 33

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  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    edited September 2014



    Well thats fine to a point but either you (ie Labour) are telling untruths about what Labour would do for Scotland or you are handing over more power and money from the rest of the UK. Might keep Scotland in the union but will it keep you votes across the non Scotland part of the UK?
    I don't believe the rest of the UK will accept more concessions to Scotland .

    What form do you think the non-acceptance will take? The three main parties have all said they support the plan. I don't think they'll renege. The "don't much care really" attitude of most English people to the Scottish decision cuts both ways - they're also not much bothered if Scotland gets more devolution as a reward for saying No, even without any quid pro quo.

    Well for a PPC for an English seat i find the attitude a bit worrying. The Uk can say to Scotland that it does not want it to leave the Union but to offer consessions of power and money (when both are already disproportionately with Scotland) seems to be looking after Labour's interests and not the UK (with or without Scotland).
    the simple fact is that the countries can get along fine if the vote is 'yes' .they can only get along fine if the vote is 'no' if power and money are fairly allocated

    I have already said I am surprised the tory top brass do not seem to have questioned Brown/Labour's 'plan'
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    In addition to what I wrote earlier:

    10. Cameron resigning would make the Conservatives 'own' the loss. At the moment, a good argument can be made that Labour own the failure: after all, the 'No' campaign was led by Labour stalwarts. Cameron resigning would make it easy for Labour to point to the resignation as a sign of guilt.

    As it happens, I made a mistake. In point 3) I wrote "If ‘Yes’ win, it will be in spite of the Yes campaign, not because of it." I actually meant the No campaign, but it works equally well for Yes. Neither campaign has been very good, which is why it looks as though there is not going to be a clear winner. (*)

    (*) Famous last words.

    10 is a fair point but I'm not sure voters in May 2015 will forgive the man who presided over the break up of the Union especially as by then the unfortunate consequences both foreseen and unforeseen will be making themselves horribly apparent. The Times has a list of some of the economic ones today for those that can access that paper.

    Therefore I still favour a Cameron departure in the event of a Yes vote in the early Spring of 2015.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    SeanT said:



    Just checked. My German pal wasn't joking. I can't find any houses in Bacharach, but this is close by:

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-36580039.html

    For €75,000

    Nuts.

    Nice place and I was impressed by the size, if not the condition, of the garden in a town centre house. It probably needs 20 grand spending on it (kitchen, bathroom and what appears to be attic all need work aside from the garden) but at that base asking price that isn't an issue. Something like that would be ideal for Herself and me. However, as I say, there has to be some chunky drawbacks. Nothing in life is that good a deal.

    The second house is even nicer, and superb views, but that main road outside? Nah, Not even for less than 100k
    From the conversations on here last week, might the chunky drawbacks be (ahem) the shelf toilets?

    ;-)
    I hinted at that earlier, but was trying to be delicate. Probably the biggest drawback (after all one can always import the necessary item from a country who knows how to make such things), and I don't know about internet access and health service provision, is that one would be living amongst the Hun. However, I did that as a young man with BAOR and always got on rather well with them. Have to brush up on the language of course but that is no big deal.

    However, let me come down to reality. Herself will not consider moving to a new part of England, or Portugal (which she loves), what chance is there that she will agree to go to Germany?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2014
    Norm said:

    Alistair said:

    I'm coming to the conclusion that it is dangerous to remove the undecideds from the polling data when considering who is "ahead". In a normal vote they melt away - but in a high turnout referendum there could very well be people heading to the polling station who have yet to make up their mind.

    That could well swing it for No.

    Maybe you need a second question ie if you are definitely going to vote which side are you currently leaning towards?
    http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/uploads/files/TNSUK_SOM2014Sep9_DataTables.pdf

    Page 7.

    When those who were undecided as to how they would vote were pressed;

    "How do you think you are most likely to vote in response to the question: "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

    73% still didn't know - although 71% of the don't know/don't knows still think that they're certain or very likely to vote.

  • AndyJS said:

    Good evening. What's the collective PB view of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg's decision to campaign in Scotland tomorrow? And flying the Saltaire over Downing Street?

    The flags thing will make no difference. The lovebombing should have started the moment the referendum was announced.

    The decision to campaign in Scotland will also make no difference; people will just split along the lines they have already decided. Again, it's too little, too late.

    It's not as if an undecided, having been exposed to years of frantic campaigning, will see the gestalt entity of Daveednick and say "My God, I want to save the union." and start waving union jacks.

    Cameron and Clegg were probably right to stay out of campaigning in this mess until now. Miliband too, to a lesser extent, given his Englishness and unpopularity.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014

    AndyJS said:

    Good evening. What's the collective PB view of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg's decision to campaign in Scotland tomorrow? And flying the Saltaire over Downing Street?

    The flags thing will make no difference. The lovebombing should have started the moment the referendum was announced.

    The decision to campaign in Scotland will also make no difference; people will just split along the lines they have already decided. Again, it's too little, too late.

    It's not as if an undecided, having been exposed to years of frantic campaigning, will see the gestalt entity of Daveednick and say "My God, I want to save the union." and start waving union jacks.

    Cameron and Clegg were probably right to stay out of campaigning in this mess until now. Miliband too, to a lesser extent, given his Englishness and unpopularity.
    The flags will wind up many in rUK, as will any further concessions.

    That might not matter now, but come next May?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Agree, Hammond would be a good choice, state educated and English and also a hard numbers man who would be a tough negotiator for Salmond and do a deal with Farage to oppose currency union
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    edited September 2014

    AndyJS said:

    Good evening. What's the collective PB view of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg's decision to campaign in Scotland tomorrow? And flying the Saltaire over Downing Street?

    The flags thing will make no difference. The lovebombing should have started the moment the referendum was announced.

    The decision to campaign in Scotland will also make no difference; people will just split along the lines they have already decided. Again, it's too little, too late.

    It's not as if an undecided, having been exposed to years of frantic campaigning, will see the gestalt entity of Daveednick and say "My God, I want to save the union." and start waving union jacks.

    Cameron and Clegg were probably right to stay out of campaigning in this mess until now. Miliband too, to a lesser extent, given his Englishness and unpopularity.
    It seems a little perverse to fly the Saltire and not the Union Jack when you want people to be proud of the Union imo

    Flying the Saltire in London is what Salmond did last year at the tennis FGS
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    The leader of Quebec's Yes campaign, narrowly beaten in 1995, says Scotland's referendum has been much more fairly conducted http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/09/britain-referendum-canada-scottish-independence-vote
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721

    AndyJS said:

    Good evening. What's the collective PB view of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg's decision to campaign in Scotland tomorrow? And flying the Saltaire over Downing Street?

    The flags thing will make no difference. The lovebombing should have started the moment the referendum was announced.

    The decision to campaign in Scotland will also make no difference; people will just split along the lines they have already decided. Again, it's too little, too late.

    It's not as if an undecided, having been exposed to years of frantic campaigning, will see the gestalt entity of Daveednick and say "My God, I want to save the union." and start waving union jacks.

    Cameron and Clegg were probably right to stay out of campaigning in this mess until now. Miliband too, to a lesser extent, given his Englishness and unpopularity.
    and weirdness.
  • Shaun Wright tells MPs: "Resigning would have been the easy option."

    Well if it's easy...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564


    Are you not picking up any anger from voters on then doorstep then, Nick? Not in relation to the "Home Rule Bill", that is too new to have registered yet, but in general against the main three parties? Perhaps your part of the Midlands is more placid and forgiving than Rural Sussex. Perhaps I have an attraction for angry punters. Perhaps the nature of the business is that the people who want to talk to us are the people who, sort of, share our views. I don't know but it seems to me there are lots of very cross people out there now and an extra special settlement for Scotland, if it is perceived at their expense, is not going to boost the vote share of the main parties.

    Anger - not exactly. I'm certainly meeting some people who say mildly "Sorry, I'm a bit tired of the main parties and will be trying UKIP". Does that count?

    I've very rarely found what I'd call angry voters in 46 years of canvassing all over the country - but I'm a polite cove and I think they generally feel that they should be polite back, even if they perhaps feel angry. I thank opponents for telling me, and they say something like that's OK, thank you for calling. It's all very old-school, and I feel ought to score a point in the "Are you British?" exam even if I still don't know who succeeded Queen Anne. :-)
  • I thank opponents for telling me, and they say something like that's OK, thank you for calling. It's all very old-school, and I feel ought to score a point in the "Are you British?" exam even if I still don't know who succeeded Queen Anne. :-)

    To get full marks on that you have to say something which appears to be polite but which on reflection is subtly insulting!
  • Norm said:

    In addition to what I wrote earlier:

    10. Cameron resigning would make the Conservatives 'own' the loss. At the moment, a good argument can be made that Labour own the failure: after all, the 'No' campaign was led by Labour stalwarts. Cameron resigning would make it easy for Labour to point to the resignation as a sign of guilt.

    As it happens, I made a mistake. In point 3) I wrote "If ‘Yes’ win, it will be in spite of the Yes campaign, not because of it." I actually meant the No campaign, but it works equally well for Yes. Neither campaign has been very good, which is why it looks as though there is not going to be a clear winner. (*)

    (*) Famous last words.

    10 is a fair point but I'm not sure voters in May 2015 will forgive the man who presided over the break up of the Union especially as by then the unfortunate consequences both foreseen and unforeseen will be making themselves horribly apparent. The Times has a list of some of the economic ones today for those that can access that paper.

    Therefore I still favour a Cameron departure in the event of a Yes vote in the early Spring of 2015.
    Fair enough. I would counter with two (now three) points:

    1) I might be wrong, but doesn't polling show that at best the English population is ambivalent to Scotland leaving? ISTR such polls being mentioned on here. Many people will be glad to see them go, and others will just shrug. Some, like me, will have a tear in my eye as I wave them goodbye and wish them good luck. More than a handful will say, "Where's Scotland?"

    2) It's possible Cameron can show he was an honest(ish) broker (which he has been, at least relatively speaking), and push the failure onto Labour. After all, most of the pictures down here have been of Labour bods campaigning - Brown, Darling et al.

    3) It will be easy to push the blame for any chaos onto the unreasonable actions of the perfidious splitters.

    You may well be right. However, given the points I make below, I doubt Cameron will go. If he does, it will be as a result of his love of the union.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014

    AndyJS said:

    Good evening. What's the collective PB view of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg's decision to campaign in Scotland tomorrow? And flying the Saltaire over Downing Street?

    The flags thing will make no difference. The lovebombing should have started the moment the referendum was announced.

    The decision to campaign in Scotland will also make no difference; people will just split along the lines they have already decided. Again, it's too little, too late.

    It's not as if an undecided, having been exposed to years of frantic campaigning, will see the gestalt entity of Daveednick and say "My God, I want to save the union." and start waving union jacks.

    Cameron and Clegg were probably right to stay out of campaigning in this mess until now. Miliband too, to a lesser extent, given his Englishness and unpopularity.
    It seems a little perverse to fly the Saltire and not the Union Jack when you want people to be proud of the Union imo

    The Nats must be laughing their little tartans sock off; I would.

    It's a sign of weakness, the equivalent of running up a white flag.

    Whatever next, flying the ISIS one in an attempt to persuade British recruits to drop their arms and return home?
  • SeanT said:

    Or this. Big. Beaut views. You could probably drive them under €100,000

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-41839984.html

    Incredible, really.

    I saw a documentary on Deutsche Welle about German rural depopulation and pretty much societal collapse whilst killing time in a Luxembourg hotel recently. They're not reproducing, these Germans. Junior schools close because they have literally no kids in some villages. The reason these properties are dirt cheap despite being lovely is that they are in ghost towns. Or towns where your only neighbours are a mile away and in their 90s. This whole thing is much in the German news but seems not to have seeped into the UK consciousness. We have already seen peak Germany - they're on the downslope now. And that has deep deep implications for the Euro.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336
    edited September 2014

    AndyJS said:

    Good evening. What's the collective PB view of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg's decision to campaign in Scotland tomorrow? And flying the Saltaire over Downing Street?

    The flags thing will make no difference. The lovebombing should have started the moment the referendum was announced.

    The decision to campaign in Scotland will also make no difference; people will just split along the lines they have already decided. Again, it's too little, too late.

    It's not as if an undecided, having been exposed to years of frantic campaigning, will see the gestalt entity of Daveednick and say "My God, I want to save the union." and start waving union jacks.

    Cameron and Clegg were probably right to stay out of campaigning in this mess until now. Miliband too, to a lesser extent, given his Englishness and unpopularity.
    It seems a little perverse to fly the Saltire and not the Union Jack when you want people to be proud of the Union imo

    It's the equivalent of running up a white flag.

    The Nats must be laughing their little tartans sock off. I would be.
    This one [edit] was just sitting looking open-mouthed at the Graun live newsfeed ... not a giggle anywhere. Utterly astonishing.

  • AndyJS said:

    Good evening. What's the collective PB view of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg's decision to campaign in Scotland tomorrow? And flying the Saltaire over Downing Street?

    The flags thing will make no difference. The lovebombing should have started the moment the referendum was announced.

    The decision to campaign in Scotland will also make no difference; people will just split along the lines they have already decided. Again, it's too little, too late.

    It's not as if an undecided, having been exposed to years of frantic campaigning, will see the gestalt entity of Daveednick and say "My God, I want to save the union." and start waving union jacks.

    Cameron and Clegg were probably right to stay out of campaigning in this mess until now. Miliband too, to a lesser extent, given his Englishness and unpopularity.
    It seems a little perverse to fly the Saltire and not the Union Jack when you want people to be proud of the Union imo

    It's the equivalent of running up a white flag.

    The Nats must be laughing their little tartans sock off. I would be.
    It's a healthy reminder that the Saltire doesn't belong to the Nats. Their sullying of the flag for party political purposes is shameless.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good Evening.

    By running up the Saltire on flagpoles all over England and Wales the Lab/Lib/Cons show how bankrupt of decency and policy they are: how they are all willing to surrender long held positions and beliefs and spout any rubbish, to hold on to power.

    The contrast with UKIP couldn't be more plain.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Hard to decide which of today's procession of Rotherham and SYP officials is least incompetent.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29128239
  • Paddy Power - NEXT TO LEAVE THE COALITION CABINET

    Alistair Carmichael 7/4
    Vince Cable 5/1
    Nick Clegg 6/1
    Theresa Villiers 8/1
    Iain Duncan Smith 8/1
    Jeremy Hunt 10/1
    Elizabeth Truss 12/1
    Chris Grayling 12/1

    The MAX stake PP would allow me on Carmichael was 11 quid. I took it.

    Carmichael now 5/6
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564

    I thank opponents for telling me, and they say something like that's OK, thank you for calling. It's all very old-school, and I feel ought to score a point in the "Are you British?" exam even if I still don't know who succeeded Queen Anne. :-)

    To get full marks on that you have to say something which appears to be polite but which on reflection is subtly insulting!
    How about "Thank you very much, I have made a note of your unusual views"?

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336

    AndyJS said:

    Good evening. What's the collective PB view of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg's decision to campaign in Scotland tomorrow? And flying the Saltaire over Downing Street?

    The flags thing will make no difference. The lovebombing should have started the moment the referendum was announced.

    The decision to campaign in Scotland will also make no difference; people will just split along the lines they have already decided. Again, it's too little, too late.

    It's not as if an undecided, having been exposed to years of frantic campaigning, will see the gestalt entity of Daveednick and say "My God, I want to save the union." and start waving union jacks.

    Cameron and Clegg were probably right to stay out of campaigning in this mess until now. Miliband too, to a lesser extent, given his Englishness and unpopularity.
    It seems a little perverse to fly the Saltire and not the Union Jack when you want people to be proud of the Union imo

    It's the equivalent of running up a white flag.

    The Nats must be laughing their little tartans sock off. I would be.
    It's a healthy reminder that the Saltire doesn't belong to the Nats. Their sullying of the flag for party political purposes is shameless.

    So you disapprove of its use by the No Campaign, Orange Order, etc. etc.?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    SeanT said:

    Alistair said:

    SeanT said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Cameron and Osbourne (surprised by him) have looked weak this week with their effective begging for Scotland to vote 'no' . I can see why they might want Scotland to stay but its not the end of the world if they don't both for the countries and the tories . It might be worse for Labour given how many MPs they will lose but that's their problem

    It's all beginning to get a bit embarrassing isn't it? Like the scene at the end of Gone With The Wind where Scarlett begs Rhett to stay when he's about to walk out the door.

    What does he say?

    "Leave us some dignity to remember out of our marriage."

    Westminster will be going through the "Bunny Boiler" phase next, mark my words...
    However, they are copying the Quebecois playbook - and it worked, there.
    The difference there was the Prime Minster of Canada was a Quebecian.
    But he was loathed in Quebec, AIUI.
    I read your latest blog this morning, SeanT, and it was one of the best you have written. Congrats.
  • I thank opponents for telling me, and they say something like that's OK, thank you for calling. It's all very old-school, and I feel ought to score a point in the "Are you British?" exam even if I still don't know who succeeded Queen Anne. :-)

    To get full marks on that you have to say something which appears to be polite but which on reflection is subtly insulting!
    How about "Thank you very much, I have made a note of your unusual views"?

    '
    unusual is not that subtle -Try' extraordinary views'
  • NEW - Ladbrokes - Salmond to announce resignation as First Minister within 48 hours of result

    6/1

    Thanks, I've made a small investment as I suspect Salmond will step aside whether he wins or loses. Only a small one mind. If yes wins, Salmond goes down in history. There is no real attraction in hanging around for several years of negotiations.
    Still 6/1

    Can't see Salmond resigning after a Yes vote.

    After a No result it is possible, but I'd rate it longer than 6/1.
  • NEW - Ladbrokes - The Queen to officially back the NO campaign

    100/1

    Somebody has clearly taken a bite cos that price is now in to 50/1
  • I thank opponents for telling me, and they say something like that's OK, thank you for calling. It's all very old-school, and I feel ought to score a point in the "Are you British?" exam even if I still don't know who succeeded Queen Anne. :-)

    To get full marks on that you have to say something which appears to be polite but which on reflection is subtly insulting!
    How about "Thank you very much, I have made a note of your unusual views"?

    Not bad. Better would be "your most illuminating views".
  • The nats are perfectly entitled to use the Saltire in this sort of vote i woudl have thought. i also woudl have thought unionists would like to use the Union Jack but it seems they prefer the Saltire as well!!
    I suppose it comes down to politicians trying to be everything to everyone which is increasingly annoying as the years go by. Just say what you believe in and let people decide if they also believe in it FGS

  • I haven't seen any voting cards put through my door about this new federal UK we are all supposed to be deciding on.

    Does anyone know when the English ones will be sent out?

  • AndyJS said:

    Good evening. What's the collective PB view of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg's decision to campaign in Scotland tomorrow? And flying the Saltaire over Downing Street?

    The flags thing will make no difference. The lovebombing should have started the moment the referendum was announced.

    The decision to campaign in Scotland will also make no difference; people will just split along the lines they have already decided. Again, it's too little, too late.

    It's not as if an undecided, having been exposed to years of frantic campaigning, will see the gestalt entity of Daveednick and say "My God, I want to save the union." and start waving union jacks.

    Cameron and Clegg were probably right to stay out of campaigning in this mess until now. Miliband too, to a lesser extent, given his Englishness and unpopularity.
    The flags will wind up many in rUK, as will any further concessions.

    That might not matter now, but come next May?
    Quite so. There is already very considerable resentment from those in England who are aware of the far more generous state provisions and benefits provided in Scotland, despite the tax regimes being virtually identical throughout the UK. I suppose over the many years that such unfairness has existed, we south of the border have learned to shrug it off as a cost of the union we simply have to live with as well as being an oil dividend of sorts.
  • I thank opponents for telling me, and they say something like that's OK, thank you for calling. It's all very old-school, and I feel ought to score a point in the "Are you British?" exam even if I still don't know who succeeded Queen Anne. :-)

    To get full marks on that you have to say something which appears to be polite but which on reflection is subtly insulting!
    How about "Thank you very much, I have made a note of your unusual views"?

    Not bad. Better would be "your most illuminating views".
    yes top marks Richard. Here is your passport old chap
  • I thank opponents for telling me, and they say something like that's OK, thank you for calling. It's all very old-school, and I feel ought to score a point in the "Are you British?" exam even if I still don't know who succeeded Queen Anne. :-)

    To get full marks on that you have to say something which appears to be polite but which on reflection is subtly insulting!
    Disraeli's " Thank you for sending me a copy of your book, I'll waste no time in reading it" remains the undefeated champion.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014

    AndyJS said:

    Good evening. What's the collective PB view of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg's decision to campaign in Scotland tomorrow? And flying the Saltaire over Downing Street?

    The flags thing will make no difference. The lovebombing should have started the moment the referendum was announced.

    The decision to campaign in Scotland will also make no difference; people will just split along the lines they have already decided. Again, it's too little, too late.

    It's not as if an undecided, having been exposed to years of frantic campaigning, will see the gestalt entity of Daveednick and say "My God, I want to save the union." and start waving union jacks.

    Cameron and Clegg were probably right to stay out of campaigning in this mess until now. Miliband too, to a lesser extent, given his Englishness and unpopularity.
    The flags will wind up many in rUK, as will any further concessions.

    That might not matter now, but come next May?
    Quite so. There is already very considerable resentment from those in England who are aware of the far more generous state provisions and benefits provided in Scotland, despite the tax regimes being virtually identical throughout the UK. I suppose over the many years that such unfairness has existed, we south of the border have learned to shrug it off as a cost of the union we simply have to live with as well as being an oil dividend of sorts.
    I've come round to thinking that all 3 main party leaders should go, regardless of the result next week.

    To a man, they're totally incompetent, and utterly useless and incapable of putting the rights and wishes of the electorate before themselves and the remainder of the Westminster political class.

    (Farage is also a waste of space, but for different self serving and non-printable reasons).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Finally a good No referendum broadcast airing tonight on BBC1
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huSni8tMVo0#t=79
  • I thank opponents for telling me, and they say something like that's OK, thank you for calling. It's all very old-school, and I feel ought to score a point in the "Are you British?" exam even if I still don't know who succeeded Queen Anne. :-)

    To get full marks on that you have to say something which appears to be polite but which on reflection is subtly insulting!
    I'm quite sure the honourable Nick would not be capable of such a dastardly subterfuge.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,954
    Patrick said:
    He's right as well.

    The way all the major parties have ignored the implications for the rest of the UK, and apparently are planning to act to bribe the Scots without even asking for our consent, is even worse than the shambolic campaign in Scotland.

    A NO vote and some ham-fisted restructuring of the UK that ignores the wishes of 92% of the people will be almost as bad as a YES vote.

    There will be no good outcome of this referendum.

  • 'Scotland's what?' US caught napping as Scots prepare to vote on independence

    “Scotland’s what?” said the Department of Defense switchboard operator in apparent confusion. Scotland is voting on independence, the Guardian told her. “Oh.” A brief silence. “Wow.”

    ... Lt Vanessa Hillman, a spokesperson for the Department of Defense (DoD), told the Guardian that this was “not something the DoD would take queries on,” and referred questions to the State Department. The State Department, getting a little testy – the Guardian asked the same question three times over the course of a week – said: “We don’t have anything on this at this point.”

    ... “I think there’s not been much deep thinking here about the ramifications of Scottish independence.”

    ... The missiles that form the UK’s nuclear deterrent are leased from the American Atlantic Squadron pool, which is based at the US naval base at King’s Bay, on the Georgia coast, where America houses its own Trident submarines.

    Acton thinks there is a possibility that the warheads, and possibly even the submarines, might have to be stored back at King’s Bay – at least temporarily – if an independent Scotland goes through with the Scottish National Party’s stated policy of ejecting them. “I think it would be an interim solution,” he said, “but might end up becoming permanent.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/09/scotland-independence-vote-us-headache
  • glw said:

    There will be no good outcome of this referendum.

    I'm now thinking a YES would be considerably cleaner than a NO, after all this. If NO had coasted to a 57-43 win, all well and good, but this late panic and fag-paper constitution stuff is terrible.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014



    Acton thinks there is a possibility that the warheads, and possibly even the submarines, might have to be stored back at King’s Bay

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/09/scotland-independence-vote-us-headache

    Unlikely, since the warheads are designed and manufactured in the UK. Ditto the submarines. Nothing whatsoever to do with the US.

    Acton needs to do some research.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    AndyJS said:

    Good evening. What's the collective PB view of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg's decision to campaign in Scotland tomorrow? And flying the Saltaire over Downing Street?

    The flags thing will make no difference. The lovebombing should have started the moment the referendum was announced.

    The decision to campaign in Scotland will also make no difference; people will just split along the lines they have already decided. Again, it's too little, too late.

    It's not as if an undecided, having been exposed to years of frantic campaigning, will see the gestalt entity of Daveednick and say "My God, I want to save the union." and start waving union jacks.

    Cameron and Clegg were probably right to stay out of campaigning in this mess until now. Miliband too, to a lesser extent, given his Englishness and unpopularity.
    The flags will wind up many in rUK, as will any further concessions.

    That might not matter now, but come next May?
    Quite so. There is already very considerable resentment from those in England who are aware of the far more generous state provisions and benefits provided in Scotland, despite the tax regimes being virtually identical throughout the UK. I suppose over the many years that such unfairness has existed, we south of the border have learned to shrug it off as a cost of the union we simply have to live with as well as being an oil dividend of sorts.
    I've come round to thinking that all 3 main party leaders should go, regardless of the result next week.

    To a man, they're totally incompetent, and utterly useless and incapable of putting the rights and wishes of the electorate before themselves and the remainder of the Westminster political class.

    (Farage is also a waste of space, but for different self serving and non-printable reasons).
    On betfair it was possible to get 100:1 on none of the leaders being in place at GE. Not much liquidity but I thought worth 2 quid.
  • Moray Macdonald, the former Director of the Scottish Conservatives, is voting Yes.

    He is very, very welcome onboard!
  • glw said:

    There will be no good outcome of this referendum.

    I'm now thinking a YES would be considerably cleaner than a NO, after all this. If NO had coasted to a 57-43 win, all well and good, but this late panic and fag-paper constitution stuff is terrible.
    It's called politics, bribing the electorate is the usual successful strategy.
  • glw said:

    There will be no good outcome of this referendum.

    I'm now thinking a YES would be considerably cleaner than a NO, after all this. If NO had coasted to a 57-43 win, all well and good, but this late panic and fag-paper constitution stuff is terrible.
    It's called politics, bribing the electorate is the usual successful strategy.
    There's a big difference between taking from tomorrow to pay for today (the usual strategy) and taking from one chunk of the country to give to the other. UKIP must be praying for a marginal NO.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Off topic: just been surveyed by Populus on the phone ( randomly ) for a Gen Elec VI.


  • Acton thinks there is a possibility that the warheads, and possibly even the submarines, might have to be stored back at King’s Bay

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/09/scotland-independence-vote-us-headache

    Unlikely, since the warheads are designed and manufactured in the UK. Ditto the submarines. Nothing whatsoever to do with the US.

    Acton needs to do some research.

    Quelle surprise.
  • AndyJS said:

    Good evening. What's the collective PB view of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg's decision to campaign in Scotland tomorrow? And flying the Saltire over Downing Street?

    too little too late for the jolly north of the border - flying the Saltire is just craven stupidity.
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282

    On the key question of how the don't knows will split table 2 page 6 of TNT/BMRB poll has
    Base:All all who don,t know how they intend to vote in the referendum.
    Question :How do you think you are most likely to vote?
    Answer
    Yes 12% No 16% Don't know 73"%.
    The ratio of No to yes (excluding undecided) is 54:46.If remaining undecideds split the same way then the final total for undecideds(23% of voters) would be NO 12.4% Yes 10.6%.
    Adding this to the 39/38 No yes split of those who have decided gives a final result of no 51.4% Yes 48.6%.

    However sample sizes are small and the polling was carried out between August 27th and Sept 4th before the weekend You Gov poll whlch showed the yes vote in front.
  • glw said:

    There will be no good outcome of this referendum.

    I'm now thinking a YES would be considerably cleaner than a NO, after all this. If NO had coasted to a 57-43 win, all well and good, but this late panic and fag-paper constitution stuff is terrible.
    Quite right - the now inevitable closeness of the vote means the independence issue simply isn't going to go away, ever.

    "If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well it were done quickly."
  • Off-topic:

    The Home Affairs Select Committee have made the (apparently) unprecedented step of asking the South Yorkshire PCC to step down immediately.

    He was absolutely skewered; most of all by his one-time Labour fellows.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    SD Thanks for that, I will use him to hammer cybernats every time they post another tweet about saving Scotland from evil Tories
  • glw said:

    There will be no good outcome of this referendum.

    I'm now thinking a YES would be considerably cleaner than a NO, after all this. If NO had coasted to a 57-43 win, all well and good, but this late panic and fag-paper constitution stuff is terrible.
    Quite right - the now inevitable closeness of the vote means the independence issue simply isn't going to go away, ever.

    "If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well it were done quickly."
    Yepp.

    The tipping point is being reached.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    On topic - Sajid Javid is down to 33/1 now.

    Still available at 25/1 as next tory leader, which is respectable. Best steer clear of skybet for that bet though - they're offering odds on some guy called Sajid David instead...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2014
    Combined support for UKIP and the Greens is running at about 20% in the polls compared to 4% at the 2010 general election. Without Scotland that figure would be even higher.

    It's not just in Scotland that politics is radically changing at the moment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Peter Personally I hope it is No by 1 vote, the fury of the nats and the Yes camp would be highly amusing
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014

    glw said:

    There will be no good outcome of this referendum.

    I'm now thinking a YES would be considerably cleaner than a NO, after all this. If NO had coasted to a 57-43 win, all well and good, but this late panic and fag-paper constitution stuff is terrible.
    Quite right - the now inevitable closeness of the vote means the independence issue simply isn't going to go away, ever.

    "If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well it were done quickly."
    Tomorrow will be interesting.

    3 flapping chumps on a panic tour of Scotland. Will SeanT be driving their hysteria bus?
  • Paddy Power - Which council area will return the highest Yes vote %

    Dundee 4/11
    Glasgow 5/1
    Clackmannanshire 14/1
    Angus 14/1
    Na h-Eileanan Siar 14/1
    Aberdeenshire 16/1
    Moray 16/1
    Stirling 20/1
    Aberdeen 25/1
    Falkirk 25/1
    West Lothian 25/1
  • AndyJS said:

    Good evening. What's the collective PB view of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg's decision to campaign in Scotland tomorrow? And flying the Saltire over Downing Street?

    I was at university in Glasgow in 80s/90s although I'm back in London now. I'm still in touch with many Scots on Facebook and have noticed how a number are cautiously outing themselves as Yessers. No making any argument but just indicating what they've deciding iwth the odd 'like' here and there. FWIW there is much mirth today about the flag rising up the pole on Downing Street. It is a laughably ridiculous gesture. Just looks like government by Dad's Army.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited September 2014



    Acton thinks there is a possibility that the warheads, and possibly even the submarines, might have to be stored back at King’s Bay

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/09/scotland-independence-vote-us-headache

    Unlikely, since the warheads are designed and manufactured in the UK. Ditto the submarines. Nothing whatsoever to do with the US.

    Acton needs to do some research.

    It really is astonishing how much ignorance there is on the subject of nuclear submarines and nuclear weapons. The decision to base all nuclear powered submarines in Faslane is very recent. The good citizens of Devenport have been living with them alongside, servicing them and re-furbishing them for decades, without problem or fuss. They still do, isn't one of the V boats in for a deep re-fit at the moment?

    The RN also used to carry nuclear weapons around other than those on SSBNs. Such weapons were stored, loaded/unloaded and maintained at Devenonport and Portsmouth (and, if you go back far enough, Chatham) also without fuss or fear.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    glw said:

    There will be no good outcome of this referendum.

    I'm now thinking a YES would be considerably cleaner than a NO, after all this. If NO had coasted to a 57-43 win, all well and good, but this late panic and fag-paper constitution stuff is terrible.
    Quite right - the now inevitable closeness of the vote means the independence issue simply isn't going to go away, ever.

    "If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well it were done quickly."
    Tomorrow will be interesting.

    3 flapping idiots on a panic tour of Scotland. Will SeanT be driving their hysteria bus?
    I hope Farage doesn't join them. Anyone who sells out England for some tilted devomax solution is going to get a hell of a backlash.

    How about taxes raised in England get spent in England?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    AndyJS said:

    Combined support for UKIP and the Greens is running at about 20% in the polls compared to 4% at the 2010 general election. Without Scotland that figure would be even higher.

    It's not just in Scotland that politics is radically changing at the moment.

    Have they not replaced LDs as none of the above, not sure combined LAB/CON % will be down much from the 66.6% in GE2010
  • glw said:

    Patrick said:
    There will be no good outcome of this referendum.
    I'd say there will be no bad outcome. Whatever happens now the self serving political elites have exposed themselves for what they are - contemptuous of how the hoi polloi might intrude into their well laid plans.

    Least worst is Clegg - who has kept admirably quiet up til now. (That hurt!)
    Middling worst is Dave who tried to keep a low profile, honouring the Scottish disdain for English Tories but then being a wanker and getting on a Gordon Brown (!!!) bandwagon.
    Worst by a country mile Labour. Utterly cynically promising Scotland the moon but no respect whatever for the 92%. Why doesn't Labour just rename itself the Fcuk the English Party?

    The referendum started by being about Scotland. It seems to have become about England and about the relationship between those who would govern us and the governed. The people have gained power this week. Alot of it.

    (read the comments at Guido's)
  • Blueberry said:

    AndyJS said:

    Good evening. What's the collective PB view of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg's decision to campaign in Scotland tomorrow? And flying the Saltire over Downing Street?

    I was at university in Glasgow in 80s/90s although I'm back in London now. I'm still in touch with many Scots on Facebook and have noticed how a number are cautiously outing themselves as Yessers. No making any argument but just indicating what they've deciding iwth the odd 'like' here and there. FWIW there is much mirth today about the flag rising up the pole on Downing Street. It is a laughably ridiculous gesture. Just looks like government by Dad's Army.
    :)
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2014
    HYUFD said:

    Peter Personally I hope it is No by 1 vote, the fury of the nats and the Yes camp would be highly amusing

    In that scenario... Pay very close attention to anything that sounds remotely like a promise or pledge from the no camp - My guess is lots of stuff being said now will come back to bite us and form a key part of the Nats "unmet promises" narrative for the next referendum.

    Scotland is going. Better to go now.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Has it been reported that Carney has said today that Scotland will not be able to use the £?
  • NEW - Ladbrokes - Next SNP leader

    Nicola Sturgeon 1/2
    Derek Mackay 6/1
    Alex Neil 10/1
    John Swinney 10/1
    Mike Russell 10/1
    Angus Robertson 12/1
    Humza Yousaf 16/1
    Stewart Hosie 16/1
    Kenny MacAskill 20/1
  • @glw

    "There will be no good outcome of this referendum."

    That reflects the Quebec experience.

    Yes lost narrowly but the PQ pretty much got what it wanted anyway. The scars have never healed. Might have been better if Yes had won so that the ensuing decline could not be blamed on the rest of Canada.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Vaz seeks law to sack PCC Wright
    Breaking news
    Keith Vaz MP to enquire about "emergency law" to sack S Yorks Police Commissioner Shaun Wright over Rotherham abuse

    Nothing on the profound arse covering by Thacker and others today. What a shower of ...
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Have we had any polls today and/or are we aware of any this evening apart from our daily doze of YouGov?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Cameron going to Scotland must surely increase the chances of him resigning in the event of a Yes vote.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014



    Acton thinks there is a possibility that the warheads, and possibly even the submarines, might have to be stored back at King’s Bay

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/09/scotland-independence-vote-us-headache

    Unlikely, since the warheads are designed and manufactured in the UK. Ditto the submarines. Nothing whatsoever to do with the US.

    Acton needs to do some research.

    It really is astonishing how much ignorance there is on the subject of nuclear submarines and nuclear weapons. The decision to base all nuclear powered submarines in Faslane is very recent. The good citizens of Devenport have been living with them alongside, servicing them and re-furbishing them for decades, without problem or fuss. They still do, isn't one of the V boats in for a deep re-fit at the moment?

    The RN also used to carry nuclear weapons around other than those on SSBNs. Such weapons were stored, loaded/unloaded and maintained at Devenonport and Portsmouth (and, if you go back far enough, Chatham) also without fuss or fear.
    NATO nuclear depth charges were stored close to Plymouth, and other sites in the south. Current warheads are designed, manufactured and serviced at facilities a few miles outside Reading, where obsolete RAF weapons were also stored and decommissioned.
  • The flag thing reminds me of when Diana died and the press clamored for the Buckingham Palace to fly the Union Jack (so that their photos looked better) on the pretense that the public were demanding it. And so the Queen obliged. Even though it wasn't protocol. It's the same thing here - the establishment trying to buy off the people with a bit of bunting.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Patrick said:

    glw said:

    Patrick said:
    There will be no good outcome of this referendum.
    I'd say there will be no bad outcome. Whatever happens now the self serving political elites have exposed themselves for what they are - contemptuous of how the hoi polloi might intrude into their well laid plans.

    Least worst is Clegg - who has kept admirably quiet up til now. (That hurt!)
    Middling worst is Dave who tried to keep a low profile, honouring the Scottish disdain for English Tories but then being a wanker and getting on a Gordon Brown (!!!) bandwagon.
    Worst by a country mile Labour. Utterly cynically promising Scotland the moon but no respect whatever for the 92%. Why doesn't Labour just rename itself the Fcuk the English Party?

    The referendum started by being about Scotland. It seems to have become about England and about the relationship between those who would govern us and the governed. The people have gained power this week. Alot of it.

    (read the comments at Guido's)
    Thought LAB were offering least to Scotland in DEVOMAX terms LDs offering most.
  • Irrespective of the whole Independence issue, I feel that Cameron is coming towards the end of his Premiership, even were the Tories to win the GE next May.
    The enormous difficulties, stresses and strains placed on the holder of this office leads me to believe we should be moving towards an American style limit of eight years, i.e. two four year terms maximum.
    Based on our now five year fixed term Parliaments, this equates to a Prime Minister serving, typically, one full term and half of the next (if re-elected).

    It's difficult to judge whether or not Cameron enjoys being PM, my guess would be that after four and a half years in the hot seat he wouldn't be too sorry to hand over the reins to the likes of Hammond, especially if by doing so he were able to frustrate Boris' ambitions.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited September 2014
    Completely OT but very excitingly, the Canadians have found one of the two ships of the 1845 Franklin expedition to the Arctic.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/09/british-ship-1845-franklin-expedition-found-canada
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721

    Paddy Power - Which council area will return the highest Yes vote %

    Dundee 4/11
    Glasgow 5/1
    Clackmannanshire 14/1
    Angus 14/1
    Na h-Eileanan Siar 14/1
    Aberdeenshire 16/1
    Moray 16/1
    Stirling 20/1
    Aberdeen 25/1
    Falkirk 25/1
    West Lothian 25/1


    Dundee more than the Western Isles?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited September 2014
    Cameron needs the sack if Scotland leave's for no other reason than his ridiculous panic-stricken, craven, humiliating grovelling is making the rest of the UK the laughing stock of the world.

    Did this cretin seriously once say he wanted to be Prime Minister because "he'd be good at it?"

    What a joke!

    The embarrassing behavior of the Westminster elite is actually making me sympathetic to UKIP and that doesn't happen very often.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Pong Quebec voted by less than 2% to stay in Canada in 1995, it is still there 19 years later and the UK establishment would not make the same mistake about the question on the ballot again if it is No, if they indeed ever grant another referendum. One Telegraph poll had 57% of 16-18 year olds for No, it is the very youngest as well as the very oldest who are most against breaking off from the UK
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014

    glw said:

    There will be no good outcome of this referendum.

    I'm now thinking a YES would be considerably cleaner than a NO, after all this. If NO had coasted to a 57-43 win, all well and good, but this late panic and fag-paper constitution stuff is terrible.
    Quite right - the now inevitable closeness of the vote means the independence issue simply isn't going to go away, ever.

    "If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well it were done quickly."
    Tomorrow will be interesting.

    3 flapping idiots on a panic tour of Scotland. Will SeanT be driving their hysteria bus?
    I hope Farage doesn't join them. Anyone who sells out England for some tilted devomax solution is going to get a hell of a backlash.

    How about taxes raised in England get spent in England?
    Farage will sit back, and go with the flow of his City backers.

    Why stop there. Taxes raised in the South East, are all spent there. Larger population than Scotland, why not?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    rogerh said:


    On the key question of how the don't knows will split table 2 page 6 of TNT/BMRB poll has
    Base:All all who don,t know how they intend to vote in the referendum.
    Question :How do you think you are most likely to vote?
    Answer
    Yes 12% No 16% Don't know 73"%.
    The ratio of No to yes (excluding undecided) is 54:46.If remaining undecideds split the same way then the final total for undecideds(23% of voters) would be NO 12.4% Yes 10.6%.
    Adding this to the 39/38 No yes split of those who have decided gives a final result of no 51.4% Yes 48.6%.

    However sample sizes are small and the polling was carried out between August 27th and Sept 4th before the weekend You Gov poll whlch showed the yes vote in front.

    My guess is that a large chunk of those 73% won't vote. I mean seriously, after all this, anyone who says "Well, I dunno really" hasn't been paying attention, and has no plans to do so.


    Not bad. Better would be "your most illuminating views".

    Yes, that's good, but I agree with Moniker, that Disraeli quote is a class of its own.

  • glwglw Posts: 9,954

    NATO nuclear depth charges were stored close to Plymouth, and other sites in the south. Current warheads are designed, manufactured and serviced at facilities a few miles outside Reading, where obsolete RAF weapons were also stored and decommissioned.

    Funny thing is in my experience people who live near Aldermaston, or Porton Down, are not bothered. If anything they seem to take a perverse sort of pride that one mistake and it would be curtains.

    They can stick then Vanguard submarines in the Thames as far as I'm concerned. That would beat HMS Belfast hands down. :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Clegg might consider going to Orkney or Shetland tomorrow where there are still LD supporters. Otherwise he might have rather an uncomfortable time.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    dr_spyn said:

    Vaz seeks law to sack PCC Wright
    Breaking news
    Keith Vaz MP to enquire about "emergency law" to sack S Yorks Police Commissioner Shaun Wright over Rotherham abuse

    Nothing on the profound arse covering by Thacker and others today. What a shower of ...

    Leicester is a little unusual in not being linked in the media to grooming gangs. Not clear why.
  • glw said:

    There will be no good outcome of this referendum.

    I'm now thinking a YES would be considerably cleaner than a NO, after all this. If NO had coasted to a 57-43 win, all well and good, but this late panic and fag-paper constitution stuff is terrible.
    Quite right - the now inevitable closeness of the vote means the independence issue simply isn't going to go away, ever.

    "If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well it were done quickly."
    Tomorrow will be interesting.

    3 flapping idiots on a panic tour of Scotland. Will SeanT be driving their hysteria bus?
    I hope Farage doesn't join them. Anyone who sells out England for some tilted devomax solution is going to get a hell of a backlash.

    How about taxes raised in England get spent in England?
    Leaving the oil tax revenues to Scotland like it!

  • Pong said:

    HYUFD said:

    Peter Personally I hope it is No by 1 vote, the fury of the nats and the Yes camp would be highly amusing

    In that scenario... Pay very close attention to anything that sounds remotely like a promise or pledge from the no camp - My guess is lots of stuff being said now will come back to bite us and form a key part of the Nats "unmet promises" narrative for the next referendum.

    Scotland is going. Better to go now.
    Tipping point.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    AndyJS said:

    Good evening. What's the collective PB view of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg's decision to campaign in Scotland tomorrow? And flying the Saltire over Downing Street?

    It's headless chicken time. It's making it up as they are going along and pointless to deny it even though I'm totally convinced Salmond has been talking total rubbish since day one on this and there's going to be the mother of all hangovers if there's a Yes.

    Devo Max, Super Max, or Maxwell bloody House, or whatever it's called today, could've been offered months ago in a planned and considered way ( just a thought - before the postal votes maybe?). Certainly the spectacle of Cameron making way for Gordon Brown to reemerge from the political grave to start writing constitutional cheques on the back of an envelope for rUK to sign without consultation defies belief.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Today's developments are completely embarrassing. The flag flying nonsense is just that, patronising nonsense. The flag falling at No 10 is perhaps an omen. As for the 3 Westminster leaders coming to Scotland tomorrow, that is a gift to the YES side.
  • Has it been reported that Carney has said today that Scotland will not be able to use the £?

    No. After relaunch No.54 everybody got a bit bored.

    Why not try shouting "wolf" several hundred times instead? Probably more likely to succeed.
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618



    Acton thinks there is a possibility that the warheads, and possibly even the submarines, might have to be stored back at King’s Bay

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/09/scotland-independence-vote-us-headache

    Unlikely, since the warheads are designed and manufactured in the UK. Ditto the submarines. Nothing whatsoever to do with the US.

    Acton needs to do some research.

    It really is astonishing how much ignorance there is on the subject of nuclear submarines and nuclear weapons. The decision to base all nuclear powered submarines in Faslane is very recent. The good citizens of Devenport have been living with them alongside, servicing them and re-furbishing them for decades, without problem or fuss. They still do, isn't one of the V boats in for a deep re-fit at the moment?

    The RN also used to carry nuclear weapons around other than those on SSBNs. Such weapons were stored, loaded/unloaded and maintained at Devenonport and Portsmouth (and, if you go back far enough, Chatham) also without fuss or fear.
    NATO nuclear depth charges were stored close to Plymouth, and other sites in the south. Current warheads are designed, manufactured and serviced at facilities a few miles outside Reading, where obsolete RAF weapons were also stored and decommissioned.
    Totally anecdotal,on my recent visit to Scotland on 2 occasions I heard the view expressed by Nats,that Faslane was their secret weapon for negotiating a better deal,they were not fervently anti nuclear,just keen to use it as a negotiating strategy.

    Not keen on using the nations security as a negotiating strategy.

    I live near nuclear power stations and the locals are happy,if a new nuclear power station were to be announced they would be overjoyed at the prospect of the jobs and investment that would flow. Maybe Plymouth would welcome Trident.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    HYUFD said:

    Pong Quebec voted by less than 2% to stay in Canada in 1995, it is still there 19 years later and the UK establishment would not make the same mistake about the question on the ballot again if it is No, if they indeed ever grant another referendum. One Telegraph poll had 57% of 16-18 year olds for No, it is the very youngest as well as the very oldest who are most against breaking off from the UK

    FUD , Scotland is not Quebec , in the very unlikely event it is not YES. We will be on the case from the 19th.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AndyJS said:

    Clegg might consider going to Orkney or Shetland tomorrow where there are still LD supporters. Otherwise he might have rather an uncomfortable time.

    According to last nights poll, LDs are most likely to be undecided.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    Today's developments are completely embarrassing. The flag flying nonsense is just that, patronising nonsense. The flag falling at No 10 is perhaps an omen. As for the 3 Westminster leaders coming to Scotland tomorrow, that is a gift to the YES side.

    They really are stupid , only thing that could be worse than old girning Brown spouting lies is those three monkeys coming up. I presume they will be kept well away from normal people.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Irrespective of the whole Independence issue, I feel that Cameron is coming towards the end of his Premiership, even were the Tories to win the GE next May.
    The enormous difficulties, stresses and strains placed on the holder of this office leads me to believe we should be moving towards an American style limit of eight years, i.e. two four year terms maximum.
    Based on our now five year fixed term Parliaments, this equates to a Prime Minister serving, typically, one full term and half of the next (if re-elected).

    It's difficult to judge whether or not Cameron enjoys being PM, my guess would be that after four and a half years in the hot seat he wouldn't be too sorry to hand over the reins to the likes of Hammond, especially if by doing so he were able to frustrate Boris' ambitions.

    I suspect Cameron's a goner after the 19th, irrespective of the result, for incompetence.

    If the PLP have any balls they'll push Miliband over the side too.

    Cleggs doomed regardless.

    Farage can enjoy a refreshing pint, and look forward to May 2015 or earlier.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    welshowl said:

    AndyJS said:

    Good evening. What's the collective PB view of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg's decision to campaign in Scotland tomorrow? And flying the Saltire over Downing Street?

    It's headless chicken time. It's making it up as they are going along and pointless to deny it even though I'm totally convinced Salmond has been talking total rubbish since day one on this and there's going to be the mother of all hangovers if there's a Yes.

    Devo Max, Super Max, or Maxwell bloody House, or whatever it's called today, could've been offered months ago in a planned and considered way ( just a thought - before the postal votes maybe?). Certainly the spectacle of Cameron making way for Gordon Brown to reemerge from the political grave to start writing constitutional cheques on the back of an envelope for rUK to sign without consultation defies belief.
    They offered NOTHING today , just some crap about a timetable for a talking shop. It is bollocks, how thick are they.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    edited September 2014



    Acton thinks there is a possibility that the warheads, and possibly even the submarines, might have to be stored back at King’s Bay

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/09/scotland-independence-vote-us-headache

    Unlikely, since the warheads are designed and manufactured in the UK. Ditto the submarines. Nothing whatsoever to do with the US.

    Acton needs to do some research.

    It really is astonishing how much ignorance there is on the subject of nuclear submarines and nuclear weapons. The decision to base all nuclear powered submarines in Faslane is very recent. The good citizens of Devenport have been living with them alongside, servicing them and re-furbishing them for decades, without problem or fuss. They still do, isn't one of the V boats in for a deep re-fit at the moment?

    The RN also used to carry nuclear weapons around other than those on SSBNs. Such weapons were stored, loaded/unloaded and maintained at Devenonport and Portsmouth (and, if you go back far enough, Chatham) also without fuss or fear.
    NATO nuclear depth charges were stored close to Plymouth, and other sites in the south. Current warheads are designed, manufactured and serviced at facilities a few miles outside Reading, where obsolete RAF weapons were also stored and decommissioned.
    One of the few times I wished I could have lived in a different era during my stroll around the coast was whilst I was to the west of Glasgow. I really wanted to see for real the massive floating dry dock they had in Holy Loch, or the bigger fleet we had in those waters back then.

    http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y235/Section1/swiki/h1/holoch65floatdock.jpg

    It is truly a spectacular part of the world, and these engineering leviathans seemed very fitting.
  • Itajai said:

    Paddy Power - Which council area will return the highest Yes vote %

    Dundee 4/11
    Glasgow 5/1
    Clackmannanshire 14/1
    Angus 14/1
    Na h-Eileanan Siar 14/1
    Aberdeenshire 16/1
    Moray 16/1
    Stirling 20/1
    Aberdeen 25/1
    Falkirk 25/1
    West Lothian 25/1


    Dundee more than the Western Isles?
    What surprises me is that Glasgow is so short. If Glasgow goes strongly Yes then the Union is certainly heading for dissolution.

    IIRC Glasgow started out at 16/1.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Today's developments are completely embarrassing. The flag flying nonsense is just that, patronising nonsense. The flag falling at No 10 is perhaps an omen. As for the 3 Westminster leaders coming to Scotland tomorrow, that is a gift to the YES side.

    Yes, that was my impression. Everyone knows the one thing Scots don't like is being patronised by the English and this seems to fall into that category.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    malcolmg said:

    welshowl said:

    AndyJS said:

    Good evening. What's the collective PB view of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg's decision to campaign in Scotland tomorrow? And flying the Saltire over Downing Street?

    It's headless chicken time. It's making it up as they are going along and pointless to deny it even though I'm totally convinced Salmond has been talking total rubbish since day one on this and there's going to be the mother of all hangovers if there's a Yes.

    Devo Max, Super Max, or Maxwell bloody House, or whatever it's called today, could've been offered months ago in a planned and considered way ( just a thought - before the postal votes maybe?). Certainly the spectacle of Cameron making way for Gordon Brown to reemerge from the political grave to start writing constitutional cheques on the back of an envelope for rUK to sign without consultation defies belief.
    They offered NOTHING today , just some crap about a timetable for a talking shop. It is bollocks, how thick are they.
    Malcolm not often I agree with you!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulhutcheon: Mmm. Kenny MacAskill says there will be a currency "arrangement" after independence #indyref

    backtracking already...
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