So how was Cameron supposed to deny the Scots a vote after the SNP had won an overall majority.
He didn't really have an option.
Let Salmond hold his unofficial illegal referendum he was threatening to hold anyway at some indistinct possible future date, and then with the other Unionist parties simply ignore it if indeed it ever happened?
With polls at the time showing only a third of Scots backed independence, it would have been perfectly sensible to have said "there is no demand for it", and just carried on as normal - ideally, of course, pursuing some policies that were vaguely Scot-friendly.
Instead, he felt the hand of history on his shoulder and thought "I'll lance the SNP boil by forcing them to hold an earlier referendum, on whatever terms Salmond wants, because the Unionist cause will win, and I'll be the PM who saved the Union and put the issue to bed for a generation".
A bold vision. But he's screwed it up magnificently, and even if No somehow gets 50%+1, the genie is out of the bottle now and it is only a matter of time before the wailing Nats get their way now.
All his own doing. He will have to go.
Absurd. Cameron has done things to encourage Scottish independence, but letting the referendum happen wasn't one of them. You can't have a nationalist government in charge of the place and not let them have the vote. It would have caused Scots to be incensed and felt justifiably like a controlled colony. The 'fake' referendum would have won by a large margin and we'd have been in far more bitter constitutional crisis.
Cameron should have allowed a moderate devoplus on the ballot, and made sure Scots in EWNI could vote. No way Salmond would have won.
Sorry, why does this principle not apply to Crimea and Donbass then?
Because these places were invaded by a foreign army.
There was no Ukrainian Army in Crimea during the vote, although there was in 1995 when it was forcibly reincorporated into Ukraine.
Unlike you I dont see the discussions post a 'yes' vote as being a zero-sum game. I think a level-headed spirit of cooperation would produce a better outcome for everyone than your "screw them all as hard and as much as we can" approach.
And now we know what your standards of hardness are that "screw them all" clarion call is so much less believable.
With respect, you are a homosexual Green-voting Irishman who wants the Scots to vote YES. I'm not sure you are entirely representative of the English electorate.
You may want nice words and co-operation with iScotland, but most voters will want hard bargaining. Not cruel - but tough and firm. It's what happens in all divorces, and this divorce is going to enormous, tedious, relentless and, I suspect, eventually acrimonious, even if we start with the best intentions.
We are such a "United" Kingdom that we had Scotland play Germany in the footy on Sunday and England play Switzerland last night - separation has already occurred. In fact, psychologically as early as when the nascent (And SEPERATE) English and Scottish leagues were set up 150 years or so ago.
So how was Cameron supposed to deny the Scots a vote after the SNP had won an overall majority.
He didn't really have an option.
Let Salmond hold his unofficial illegal referendum he was threatening to hold anyway at some indistinct possible future date, and then with the other Unionist parties simply ignore it if indeed it ever happened?
With polls at the time showing only a third of Scots backed independence, it would have been perfectly sensible to have said "there is no demand for it", and just carried on as normal - ideally, of course, pursuing some policies that were vaguely Scot-friendly.
Instead, he felt the hand of history on his shoulder and thought "I'll lance the SNP boil by forcing them to hold an earlier referendum, on whatever terms Salmond wants, because the Unionist cause will win, and I'll be the PM who saved the Union and put the issue to bed for a generation".
A bold vision. But he's screwed it up magnificently, and even if No somehow gets 50%+1, the genie is out of the bottle now and it is only a matter of time before the wailing Nats get their way now.
All his own doing. He will have to go.
Absurd. Cameron has done things to encourage Scottish independence, but letting the referendum happen wasn't one of them. You can't have a nationalist government in charge of the place and not let them have the vote. It would have caused Scots to be incensed and felt justifiably like a controlled colony. The 'fake' referendum would have won by a large margin and we'd have been in far more bitter constitutional crisis.
Cameron should have allowed a moderate devoplus on the ballot, and made sure Scots in EWNI could vote. No way Salmond would have won.
Sorry, why does this principle not apply to Crimea and Donbass then?
Because these places were invaded by a foreign army.
Still you maintain that people should be free to determine their own future, consistency from now on please.
As usual you are confusing what you and your fellow travellers want with the wider public. Two very different things, as ever. Most people will, I dare say, want an amicable divorce that maintains the intercourse if not the marriage between the two nations to maximum benefit.
"As usual"? But.. But.. You're a newb aren't you? Only 3 posts?
Wait a minute, you haven't been here for years, using lots of different names, have you?
As usual you are confusing what you and your fellow travellers want with the wider public. Two very different things, as ever. Most people will, I dare say, want an amicable divorce that maintains the intercourse if not the marriage between the two nations to maximum benefit.
"As usual"? But.. But.. You're a newb aren't you? Only 3 posts?
Wait a minute, you haven't been here for years, using lots of different names, have you?
What Labour needs to keep the WWC from defecting to UKIP in droves is not Ed Miliband. They need someone who looks like he has seen the inside of a working men's club. Urbane, comforting in tone, comfortable with power.
@Sunil Well there has never been a sporting union outside the bizarre anomaly of the GB Olympic team, which is in any event GB and not UK. The Ireland Olympic team represents North and South.
Rugby (both codes) and cricket also have separate Scots teams.
As usual you are confusing what you and your fellow travellers want with the wider public. Two very different things, as ever. Most people will, I dare say, want an amicable divorce that maintains the intercourse if not the marriage between the two nations to maximum benefit.
"As usual"? But.. But.. You're a newb aren't you? Only 3 posts?
Wait a minute, you haven't been here for years, using lots of different names, have you?
Has anyone considered the wild prospect that a Free Scotland might actually be better off, due to a can-do spirit born of creating a new nation?
I know you're new here :|Innocent Face||: - but quite a few have suggested that down the road SINDY may well flourish and prosper - but it will be a very different SINDY than the one that is being used to sell independence....
@Sunil Well there has never been a sporting union outside the bizarre anomaly of the GB Olympic team, which is in any event GB and not UK. The Ireland Olympic team represents North and South.
Rugby (both codes) and cricket also have separate Scots teams.
Exactly, separation occurred in our most popular team sports nearly 150 years back.
I don't think he will but note that if Cameron resigns as PM immediately and IF there is a full scale leadership contest that takes a couple of months then Hague will become PM for certain.
Hague is First Secretary of State and as such Hague is standing in for Cameron at PMQs tomorrow (in absence of Clegg).
In practice I imagine Cameron would remain PM during the leadership contest but if for any reason he didn't and a new PM is needed on the spot it will be Hague.
As usual you are confusing what you and your fellow travellers want with the wider public. Two very different things, as ever. Most people will, I dare say, want an amicable divorce that maintains the intercourse if not the marriage between the two nations to maximum benefit.
"As usual"? But.. But.. You're a newb aren't you? Only 3 posts?
Wait a minute, you haven't been here for years, using lots of different names, have you?
Yes he has inc last night
I know, so that he dramatically pseudo-flounce off claiming that he can't stand to share a discussion board with such horrendous right wingers.
But would the Lib Dems accept Hammond or May (or anyone else) as PM? Or would they see the chaos as a good opportunity to distance themselves from the Tories and demand a vote of confidence? A yes vote could easily result in an Autumn General Election IMO.
The Lib Dems would not trigger an early election when they are polling single digits.
Would be the greatest strategic blunder since Japan attacked Pearl Harbour to keep America OUT of the Second World War.
But what hope have they got of being out of single digits by the Spring? They need to do something drastic to make people sit up and take notice and try to win back some of the left-leaning supported they have lost. How could anyone have confidence in a government that had presided over the loss of a large part of its own country?
The 2015 Budget has potential to boost both coalition parties.
A very small straw indeed.
Losing Scotland - if it happens - will transcend everything else - Cameron will be reviled as the worst PM of the modern era and the government will be dead in the water.
But would the Lib Dems accept Hammond or May (or anyone else) as PM? Or would they see the chaos as a good opportunity to distance themselves from the Tories and demand a vote of confidence? A yes vote could easily result in an Autumn General Election IMO.
The Lib Dems would not trigger an early election when they are polling single digits.
Would be the greatest strategic blunder since Japan attacked Pearl Harbour to keep America OUT of the Second World War.
If there'd been one or two more carriers in port, they'd probably have established an Empire over most of the region.
For the want of a nail, etc, etc.
But think of the film we got.
I distinctly HOPE you're thinking of Tora Tora Tora!
Ok two films.
Yes I enjoyed Pearl Harbour, I have a weakness for Michael Bay films
Has anyone considered the wild prospect that a Free Scotland might actually be better off, due to a can-do spirit born of creating a new nation?
Welcome back BAJ.
In see you've been watching Disney movies in your absence.
As opposed to his previous viewing, which was clearly Star Wars....
"You're far too trusting! Orkney and Shetland is too remote to provide an effective demonstration, but don't worry: we will deal with your Rebel friends soon enough!"
If Cameron leaves as PM within a week of a YES vote.. what price he is/isnt officially out by the end of the year, and how much do you want to bet?
I've spent most of the morning writing this thread, I've concluded if Dave goes, he'll be gone PDQ.
How are your billable hours looking? ;-)
I've not had a single billable hour in three years.
I work in house these days
In my experience of moving from pp to ih, I'm not surprised that you have the time to do this. Compare to 2500 hours plus in pp: you wouldn't be spending time here.....
It's the lack of structure and multi-tasking I miss.
Then again I don't miss having to account for my working day into six minute blocks.
That was when Hammond was having his career wrecked by Osborne imposibg massive Defence cuts on him.
Why didnt Osborne put the money saved from abandoning HS2 into defence?!
Well at least we needn't bother extending the HS2 project any further north if Yes wins (apologies to Geordies).
Luvvies will still want to get to Edinburgh in August after independence.
it will serve them right for having championed it!
I think that's going to be one of the funnier bits, the artist in IScotland will suddenly find 92% of their audience has gone and its hard work to get their attention back.
If Scotland votes Yes it is going to need a heavyweight PM to do the negotiation - Javid would appear far, far too junior - he would look like a PM learning on the job.
If Hague takes over immediately I wouldn't rule out him changing his decision to retire - new circumstances ... national emergency ... etc ... etc.
He is by miles the most heavyweight Con politician after Cameron - and he is very well known to the general public and always scores highly in polls.
That was when Hammond was having his career wrecked by Osborne imposibg massive Defence cuts on him.
Why didnt Osborne put the money saved from abandoning HS2 into defence?!
This is actually an interesting issue. As soon as Scotland goes, if it goes, the UK's GDP will shrink by about 8%, meaning there is simply less money to spend, thanks to a smaller tax base (and less room for borrowing).
Projects we are considering now might easily appear unaffordable with a shrunken budget, and that nasty deficit still in place. HS2 is the first and most obvious candidate to go - already very controversial, unwanted by many, etc.
What else?
And of course this applies to Scotland. Stuff the British and Scots governments are planning to do in Scotland will get shelved, as well.
Salmond really is selling the Scots a pup. But if they are happy to buy a pup - or they know he is lying but want indy anyway - fair enough. But what if most of them acvually believe his lies. And then they realise he is lying.
I guess he won't care. But the 45% of Scots who voted NO will be very very angry and bitter.
The BoE will simply print more money as it has done over the last 6 years. Salmond couldn't under Stelingisation.
Has anyone considered the wild prospect that a Free Scotland might actually be better off, due to a can-do spirit born of creating a new nation?
Welcome back BAJ.
In see you've been watching Disney movies in your absence.
Ha ha - thanks Alan. It's good to be back. The Scots vote too enthralling to miss. Hope all is well with you.
Well I'm running factories in the middle of Brum, tough start but it's picking up so fingers crossed. How's things your end, you were sounding a little down before you took a sabbatical?
@Sunil Well there has never been a sporting union outside the bizarre anomaly of the GB Olympic team
Except for in all those sports where there is. But never mind.
The OP was about football. We have had this argument before, long ago. There are some sports arranged on a UK basis but they tend to be minor ones. There is a GB team at the Olympics but even this isn't a UK team!
But would the Lib Dems accept Hammond or May (or anyone else) as PM? Or would they see the chaos as a good opportunity to distance themselves from the Tories and demand a vote of confidence? A yes vote could easily result in an Autumn General Election IMO.
The Lib Dems would not trigger an early election when they are polling single digits.
Would be the greatest strategic blunder since Japan attacked Pearl Harbour to keep America OUT of the Second World War.
If there'd been one or two more carriers in port, they'd probably have established an Empire over most of the region.
For the want of a nail, etc, etc.
But think of the film we got.
I distinctly HOPE you're thinking of Tora Tora Tora!
Ok two films.
Yes I enjoyed Pearl Harbour, I have a weakness for Michael Bay films
Presenting the solution as a Labour solution only & continuing to use "we". He's a backbencher who never turns up in parliament FFS. Apparently its Ed Miliband's idea.
Anyone in England will go nuts about what he's proposing as it costs us all more money.
Cameron is either completely insane to allow this in his name or is more machiavellian than the great Italian himself. If I was Cameron, if you really want a no, back this nonsense, and then do nothing once the vote is finished. Should Cameron care if he screws Brown, Labour, Miliband & the SNP? Nope. Screw the English & he's compete toast.
Has anyone considered the wild prospect that a Free Scotland might actually be better off, due to a can-do spirit born of creating a new nation?
I know you're new here :|Innocent Face||: - but quite a few have suggested that down the road SINDY may well flourish and prosper - but it will be a very different SINDY than the one that is being used to sell independence....
It could well do. That argument hasn't been made enough Carlotta. I'm a sentimental No supporter but I reckon if I were Scots I'd go for it. Too much to resist, making history.
I noted Easterross this morning saying his heart was with Yes.
Has anyone considered the wild prospect that a Free Scotland might actually be better off, due to a can-do spirit born of creating a new nation?
Welcome back BAJ.
In see you've been watching Disney movies in your absence.
TBF, Ireland has outperformed the UK in the last 20-odd years, going from a substantially lower GDP per capita, to a noticably higher one.
This is not because it's a member of the EU, but because they have adopted pro-business policies, such as a very low corporate rate, and have attracted a lot of manufacturing (particularly in technology and pharmaceuticals), as well as an increasing amount of financial services back office work.
Scotland, in the longer-term, will no follow the Irish model, and I have no doubt that they will prosper as a small-state, pro-business country.
However, between here and there will be a nasty transition period, where a lot of people are disappointed that Scotland is not a socialist nirvana - something that will be compounded by a nasty combination of falling oil prices and falling oil volumes.
To be fair to Cameron I don't think he had much choice about a referendum as Salmond said he would hold one anyway and if people voted for independence, it would have been very difficult to stand against it.
Where I think it went wrong was not to offer a devomax choice, with full details provided.
If Cameron leaves as PM within a week of a YES vote.. what price he is/isnt officially out by the end of the year, and how much do you want to bet?
I've spent most of the morning writing this thread, I've concluded if Dave goes, he'll be gone PDQ.
How are your billable hours looking? ;-)
I've not had a single billable hour in three years.
I work in house these days
In my experience of moving from pp to ih, I'm not surprised that you have the time to do this. Compare to 2500 hours plus in pp: you wouldn't be spending time here.....
It's the lack of structure and multi-tasking I miss.
Then again I don't miss having to account for my working day into six minute blocks.
Can you retreat your army back to Constantinople in the pb diplomacy game thanks
If Scotland votes Yes it is going to need a heavyweight PM to do the negotiation - Javid would appear far, far too junior - he would look like a PM learning on the job. If Hague takes over immediately I wouldn't rule out him changing his decision to retire - new circumstances ... national emergency ... etc ... etc. He is by miles the most heavyweight Con politician after Cameron - and he is very well known to the general public and always scores highly in polls.
Not much support inside the party after his stint at the FO. Perceived to have gone native.
@Sunil Well there has never been a sporting union outside the bizarre anomaly of the GB Olympic team
Except for in all those sports where there is. But never mind.
The OP was about football. We have had this argument before, long ago. There are some sports arranged on a UK basis but they tend to be minor ones. There is a GB team at the Olympics but even this isn't a UK team!
Team GB is a UK+ team: ((GB +NI thatwantto) or (UK - NI thatdont)) + IoM + ODTs that don't have a team)
so it's a UK team (plus a few more) except for NIrish who want to compete for Ireland and can if they want.
Presumably you can remember one of your alter egos seeing this earlier?
Has anyone considered the wild prospect that a Free Scotland might actually be better off, due to a can-do spirit born of creating a new nation?
Welcome back BAJ.
In see you've been watching Disney movies in your absence.
Ha ha - thanks Alan. It's good to be back. The Scots vote too enthralling to miss. Hope all is well with you.
Well I'm running factories in the middle of Brum, tough start but it's picking up so fingers crossed. How's things your end, you were sounding a little down before you took a sabbatical?
Things have picked up somewhat, thanks for asking. Perhaps it is Ozzy's economic miracle! ;-)
Has anyone considered the wild prospect that a Free Scotland might actually be better off, due to a can-do spirit born of creating a new nation?
Welcome back BAJ.
In see you've been watching Disney movies in your absence.
TBF, Ireland has outperformed the UK in the last 20-odd years, going from a substantially lower GDP per capita, to a noticably higher one.
This is not because it's a member of the EU, but because they have adopted pro-business policies, such as a very low corporate rate, and have attracted a lot of manufacturing (particularly in technology and pharmaceuticals), as well as an increasing amount of financial services back office work.
Scotland, in the longer-term, will no follow the Irish model, and I have no doubt that they will prosper as a small-state, pro-business country.
However, between here and there will be a nasty transition period, where a lot of people are disappointed that Scotland is not a socialist nirvana - something that will be compounded by a nasty combination of falling oil prices and falling oil volumes.
it was the 70 years before that which were a bit shit.
And really anyone saying Ireland is boomsville today ought to have relations there. The country is still exporting its people, GDP comparisons are meaningless since it's driven by an over valued currency and it;s only now that Dublin is starting to spring back to life, the rest of the country will be years behind.
I'm starting to think the opposite. That some Noes may warm to the idea, post Indy. I base this on only two anecdotal chats I had with arch No-ers over the weekend. They seemed to be willing to give it a fair crack of the whip, if they lose.
Ahem......in the event of Scotland voting to become independent [. ] should remain (net agree) (among VI) Cameron: +20 (+75) Miliband : +16 (+30)
Indeed, why should Cameron go because Miliband's Labour has run a bad campaign?
Even if every, single, last, Tory Scottish MP asks for Cameron's head, I cannot see amounting to much...
Because it was his decision to let Labour run the campaign. A Labout party that had lost the last two Scottish elections to the SNP.
And how many Scottish elections have the Tories won in recent decades? Clearly Labour, with forty times more MPs than the Tories, had to make the running on defending the Union. Having Cameron - or any Tory - front the NO campaign would have been about as wise as giving Jimmy S an "Access All Areas" pass to the NHS. With similar results.....
I wonder if it would be more dramatic if No went and won.
I saw a smidgen of a 'debate' between turbanned moron Hardeep Singh Kohli[sp] and a woman I didn't recognise (both Scottish). Kohli asked if it was 51% No and 49% Yes whether the 49% opinion would be taken into account.
The woman said yes, which seemed bonkers to me.
If you lose, you lose. If it's 49% No are the Yes campaign going to take that into consideration?
It's black or white, in or out. Not for a day or a little test phase, on a permanent basis.
Edited extra bit: bah, will soon be out of Diplomacy. My own fault for massively cocking things up. I blame proofreading (which is easily the most tedious and awful part of writing).
That was when Hammond was having his career wrecked by Osborne imposibg massive Defence cuts on him.
Why didnt Osborne put the money saved from abandoning HS2 into defence?!
Well at least we needn't bother extending the HS2 project any further north if Yes wins (apologies to Geordies).
Luvvies will still want to get to Edinburgh in August after independence.
They'll be fighting off beggars.
Will there even be an Edinburgh Festival as we know it? How much of it is overtly or tangentially financed by UK money? The BBC? Arts Councils?
Will the FUK want its premier arts festival to take place in a foreign city? No. Good news for Cheltenham or Bath.
So many unthought-through ramifications. So many.
Eh?? The Festival, or rather Festivals, are mostly/wholly funded by Edinburgh Council, the Scottish Gmt and what used to be called the Scottish Arts Council AFAIK.
And if it were in Buxton it wouldn't be the Edinburgh Festival would it?? (Though Buxton is a nice place and has great festivals too I believe.)
Any word on what proportion of Scots have already voted?
I think the max is (obviously) the 600-650K postal votes out of about 4.2m electors but figures not final and subject to postback/turnout rates obviously. Haven't seen any final counts for postals. However, those who don't send in postals can (I believe) still turn up at polling stations on the day.
I still think Hague is the logical choice, even if it's just to hold the coalition together as a stop gap until a new leader can be chosen.
If Cameron goes there is not time for a full blown leadership election and the men in grey suits will need someone who has the respect of the party, the ability to work with the lib dems and the ability to hold things together during what will be a very hectic constitutional upheaval. May and Osbourne are too devisive, Hammond/Javid too unknown, Boris not even in Parliment etc it only leaves Hague, who as we can see from standing in a PMQ's is the logical man to turn to if Cameron falls under a bus.
I can see him either acting as Prime Minister until the GE whilst the Tories select a new leader who then fights the General Election or taking the job and deciding not to retire afterall.
Has anyone considered the wild prospect that a Free Scotland might actually be better off, due to a can-do spirit born of creating a new nation?
Welcome back BAJ.
In see you've been watching Disney movies in your absence.
TBF, Ireland has outperformed the UK in the last 20-odd years, going from a substantially lower GDP per capita, to a noticably higher one.
This is not because it's a member of the EU, but because they have adopted pro-business policies, such as a very low corporate rate, and have attracted a lot of manufacturing (particularly in technology and pharmaceuticals), as well as an increasing amount of financial services back office work.
Scotland, in the longer-term, will no follow the Irish model, and I have no doubt that they will prosper as a small-state, pro-business country.
However, between here and there will be a nasty transition period, where a lot of people are disappointed that Scotland is not a socialist nirvana - something that will be compounded by a nasty combination of falling oil prices and falling oil volumes.
it was the 70 years before that which were a bit shit.
But we were happy. And most of the rest of the UK was also happy. See? It doesnt have to be a disaster. I dont recommend a trade war though. NOT a good idea.
Eh?? The Festival, or rather Festivals, are mostly/wholly funded by Edinburgh Council, the Scottish Gmt and what used to be called the Scottish Arts Council AFAIK.
The Tattoo is funded sponsored by RBS UK taxpayers
The fireworks are sponsored by Virgin Money, who announced funding for the next 3 years before knowing 92% of their customer base might leave
On topic: Pretty unlikely, I think. We have an election in a few months' time.
Mind you, I'm enjoying the idea that this is somehow the Conservatives' fault.
The Government's proposals carry within them the virus that will begin to eat away, and eventually cause to unravel, the bonds that hold the United Kingdom together. It is not written into the White Paper, but the virus is there. The proposals are the first step on the way to an independent Scotland and the break-up of the United Kingdom. - Michael Ancram, 31 July 1997
Has anyone considered the wild prospect that a Free Scotland might actually be better off, due to a can-do spirit born of creating a new nation?
Welcome back BAJ.
In see you've been watching Disney movies in your absence.
TBF, Ireland has outperformed the UK in the last 20-odd years, going from a substantially lower GDP per capita, to a noticably higher one.
This is not because it's a member of the EU, but because they have adopted pro-business policies, such as a very low corporate rate, and have attracted a lot of manufacturing (particularly in technology and pharmaceuticals), as well as an increasing amount of financial services back office work.
Scotland, in the longer-term, will no follow the Irish model, and I have no doubt that they will prosper as a small-state, pro-business country.
However, between here and there will be a nasty transition period, where a lot of people are disappointed that Scotland is not a socialist nirvana - something that will be compounded by a nasty combination of falling oil prices and falling oil volumes.
it was the 70 years before that which were a bit shit.
But we were happy. And most of the rest of the UK was also happy. See? It doesnt have to be a disaster. I dont recommend a trade war though. NOT a good idea.
Is that from experience ? I seem to remember Dev started the last one.
As for trade war, who can say, UK voters will expect their govt to look after their interests, business is business. Since you're a pensions man can you really see the population of the UK leaving their pensions in iScotland ? Mine will move if it's a yes vote, assuming of course I can get through a telephone number with 55 million others in the queue.
Eh?? The Festival, or rather Festivals, are mostly/wholly funded by Edinburgh Council, the Scottish Gmt and what used to be called the Scottish Arts Council AFAIK.
The Tattoo is funded sponsored by RBS UK taxpayers
The fireworks are sponsored by Virgin Money, who announced funding for the next 3 years before knowing 92% of their customer base might leave
Interesting point. The Tattoo isn't formally part of the Arts Festivals, which is what we were discussing. However, it is, of course, concurrent, and in a sense a contribution. Though (quite separately, and no pun intended there) I have been increasingly wondering how much longer MoD could justify it, and for that matter the Red Arrows, given the drawdown, and the abolition of so many Scots regiments.
Damn right. Why on earth would an England that had just been told to fuc< off be obliged to prop up a Scottish car carsh? The journey for Scotland from today to freedom and jam is V shaped. A very very deep and calamitous V.
Any word on what proportion of Scots have already voted?
I think the max is (obviously) the 600-650K postal votes out of about 4.2m electors but figures not final and subject to postback/turnout rates obviously. Haven't seen any final counts for postals. However, those who don't send in postals can (I believe) still turn up at polling stations on the day.
So 85%-90% of the Scottish electorate still in play then?
So it is not a UK team then? It is a GB team with some bits added.
The Ireland team is all-Ireland.
In any event Sunil's point that the three major sports are already independent is perfectly sound.
Team GB is a UK team if you want it to be (plus the extras), or it's not a UK team if you don't want it to be (plus the extras). All arranged for the convenience of UK citizens who want to compete for Ireland.
The Ireland team is all Ireland if you live in Eire, or all Ireland if you want it to be if you live in NI.
And Sunil's point may be "sound" but what of it? He hasn't made me aware that England and Scotland have separate football teams; I knew that already.
You (or maybe someone else with a similar name...) said that there wasn't a UK Olympic team. That means you don't want there to be one. I say there is a UK Olympic team; this means that I do want there to be one.
Interesting point. The Tattoo isn't formally part of the Arts Festivals, which is what we were discussing. However, it is, of course, concurrent, and in a sense a contribution. Though (quite separately, and no pun intended there) I have been increasingly wondering how much longer MoD could justify it
The MoD couldn't justify a Military display in a foreign country.
Ahem......in the event of Scotland voting to become independent [. ] should remain (net agree) (among VI) Cameron: +20 (+75) Miliband : +16 (+30)
Indeed, why should Cameron go because Miliband's Labour has run a bad campaign?
Even if every, single, last, Tory Scottish MP asks for Cameron's head, I cannot see amounting to much...
Because it was his decision to let Labour run the campaign. A Labout party that had lost the last two Scottish elections to the SNP.
And how many Scottish elections have the Tories won in recent decades? Clearly Labour, with forty times more MPs than the Tories, had to make the running on defending the Union. Having Cameron - or any Tory - front the NO campaign would have been about as wise as giving Jimmy S an "Access All Areas" pass to the NHS. With similar results.....
But Captain Cameron was on the bridge when the ship went down. He will have to take the rap, and history will hold him responsible.
I disagree with the conclusion. Even if it is logical for the FUK to rescue iScotland I reckon it would be politically impossible, especially as we'd be having our own problems - and the voters would turn to UKIP, or whoever, at the very next opportunity.
The Scots might have some oil they could put up as collateral, though.
I wonder if it would be more dramatic if No went and won.
I saw a smidgen of a 'debate' between turbanned moron Hardeep Singh Kohli[sp] and a woman I didn't recognise (both Scottish). Kohli asked if it was 51% No and 49% Yes whether the 49% opinion would be taken into account.
The woman said yes, which seemed bonkers to me.
If you lose, you lose. If it's 49% No are the Yes campaign going to take that into consideration?
It's black or white, in or out. Not for a day or a little test phase, on a permanent basis.
Edited extra bit: bah, will soon be out of Diplomacy. My own fault for massively cocking things up. I blame proofreading (which is easily the most tedious and awful part of writing).
There's clearly an asymmetry there though, where leaving is a one way decision, while staying can be changed. That's why In will have to be accommodative if they win.
That was when Hammond was having his career wrecked by Osborne imposibg massive Defence cuts on him.
Why didnt Osborne put the money saved from abandoning HS2 into defence?!
Well at least we needn't bother extending the HS2 project any further north if Yes wins (apologies to Geordies).
Luvvies will still want to get to Edinburgh in August after independence.
They'll be fighting off beggars.
Will there even be an Edinburgh Festival as we know it? How much of it is overtly or tangentially financed by UK money? The BBC? Arts Councils?
Will the FUK want its premier arts festival to take place in a foreign city? No. Good news for Cheltenham or Bath.
So many unthought-through ramifications. So many.
Eh?? The Festival, or rather Festivals, are mostly/wholly funded by Edinburgh Council, the Scottish Gmt and what used to be called the Scottish Arts Council AFAIK.
Of course, they'll be awash with cash, post independence.
By three party leaders going to Scotland together tomorrow, Cameron is enveloping those other party leaders in the same failure, if it is a failed mission.
This is an insurance policy for Cameron's leadership because he can then be no more at risk than the other party leaders. Unless they all resign in the event of a YES Indy vote then none of them are going to resign.
It is a common tactic amongst company directors - "if I have to resign then we all have to resign" is commonly heard.
Eh?? The Festival, or rather Festivals, are mostly/wholly funded by Edinburgh Council, the Scottish Gmt and what used to be called the Scottish Arts Council AFAIK.
The Tattoo is funded sponsored by RBS UK taxpayers
The fireworks are sponsored by Virgin Money, who announced funding for the next 3 years before knowing 92% of their customer base might leave
Interesting point. The Tattoo isn't formally part of the Arts Festivals, which is what we were discussing. However, it is, of course, concurrent, and in a sense a contribution. Though (quite separately, and no pun intended there) I have been increasingly wondering how much longer MoD could justify it, and for that matter the Red Arrows, given the drawdown, and the abolition of so many Scots regiments.
but if you get people like Marcus Brigstock at the festival how do you know we'll let them back in ?
But Captain Cameron was on the bridge when the ship went down. He will have to take the rap, and history will hold him responsible.
It is true that history will remember him, and not fondly, but the Captain of the ship bit is the key. Again.
If the ship flounders, does the Captain remain on board to ensure the safety of the passengers, or does he jump for the first lifeboat leaving Cabin boy Clegg in charge?
Any word on what proportion of Scots have already voted?
I think the max is (obviously) the 600-650K postal votes out of about 4.2m electors but figures not final and subject to postback/turnout rates obviously. Haven't seen any final counts for postals. However, those who don't send in postals can (I believe) still turn up at polling stations on the day.
So 85%-90% of the Scottish electorate still in play then?
So one would conclude, though some of that is only theoretical. Someone here, and another chap on Scotgoespop, worked out Yes only need about 51-51.3 on the day (IIRC) to allow for all the elderly No voters in the postal votes. The Scotgoespop posting was the most recent one or the one before, perhaps in the comments, if you want to look at how they worked it out.
Has anyone considered the wild prospect that a Free Scotland might actually be better off, due to a can-do spirit born of creating a new nation?
Welcome back BAJ.
In see you've been watching Disney movies in your absence.
TBF, Ireland has outperformed the UK in the last 20-odd years, going from a substantially lower GDP per capita, to a noticably higher one.
This is not because it's a member of the EU, but because they have adopted pro-business policies, such as a very low corporate rate, and have attracted a lot of manufacturing (particularly in technology and pharmaceuticals), as well as an increasing amount of financial services back office work.
Scotland, in the longer-term, will no follow the Irish model, and I have no doubt that they will prosper as a small-state, pro-business country.
However, between here and there will be a nasty transition period, where a lot of people are disappointed that Scotland is not a socialist nirvana - something that will be compounded by a nasty combination of falling oil prices and falling oil volumes.
it was the 70 years before that which were a bit shit.
And really anyone saying Ireland is boomsville today ought to have relations there. The country is still exporting its people, GDP comparisons are meaningless since it's driven by an over valued currency and it;s only now that Dublin is starting to spring back to life, the rest of the country will be years behind.
But small countries are always exporting and importing people in a way large countries are not: 40% of Luxembourg graduates work outside the country. That doesn't mean Luxemourg is a disaster zone that's exporting talent, it means that it's a small country and if your speciality is - say - nuclear fusion or analog semiconductor design then you'll be working abroad. The same would inevitably true of Scotland: it would have critical mass in certain parts of technology (software), engineering, and oil & gas; it would probably lose critical mass in most of the bits of financial services where it is currently strong. (It might continue to have CM in asset management, but we'll see...)
Re Ireland: Industrial production last month was +18%, the highest number on record, property prices are rising, the Markit surveys are among the best in the world, and its 'employment optimism' index at +20 is literally the very best in the world. No, unemployment is not back to pre-crisis levels, but it is falling at a rapid rate, and the latest temporary staffing numbers would indicate it will have sub 10% unemployment by early next year, and could be down to 8% by the end of the year.
Ahem......in the event of Scotland voting to become independent [. ] should remain (net agree) (among VI) Cameron: +20 (+75) Miliband : +16 (+30)
Indeed, why should Cameron go because Miliband's Labour has run a bad campaign?
Even if every, single, last, Tory Scottish MP asks for Cameron's head, I cannot see amounting to much...
Because it was his decision to let Labour run the campaign. A Labout party that had lost the last two Scottish elections to the SNP.
And how many Scottish elections have the Tories won in recent decades? Clearly Labour, with forty times more MPs than the Tories, had to make the running on defending the Union. Having Cameron - or any Tory - front the NO campaign would have been about as wise as giving Jimmy S an "Access All Areas" pass to the NHS. With similar results.....
But Captain Cameron was on the bridge when the ship went down. He will have to take the rap, and history will hold him responsible.
oil's too voilatile, we should demand whisky as security
Interesting point. The Tattoo isn't formally part of the Arts Festivals, which is what we were discussing. However, it is, of course, concurrent, and in a sense a contribution. Though (quite separately, and no pun intended there) I have been increasingly wondering how much longer MoD could justify it
The MoD couldn't justify a Military display in a foreign country.
Obviously not most of the acts. But as a visiting group ...
I have just said below that there isn't a UK Olympic team - because there isn't. That's a statement of fact. No amount of waffling from you will change that simple fact.
Eh?? The Festival, or rather Festivals, are mostly/wholly funded by Edinburgh Council, the Scottish Gmt and what used to be called the Scottish Arts Council AFAIK.
The Tattoo is funded sponsored by RBS UK taxpayers
The fireworks are sponsored by Virgin Money, who announced funding for the next 3 years before knowing 92% of their customer base might leave
Interesting point. The Tattoo isn't formally part of the Arts Festivals, which is what we were discussing. However, it is, of course, concurrent, and in a sense a contribution. Though (quite separately, and no pun intended there) I have been increasingly wondering how much longer MoD could justify it, and for that matter the Red Arrows, given the drawdown, and the abolition of so many Scots regiments.
but if you get people like Marcus Brigstock at the festival how do you know we'll let them back in ?
Er, never heard of the gent. I had to Wiki him - and even then the relevance escapes me, so if you would ...?
On topic: Pretty unlikely, I think. We have an election in a few months' time.
Mind you, I'm enjoying the idea that this is somehow the Conservatives' fault.
The Government's proposals carry within them the virus that will begin to eat away, and eventually cause to unravel, the bonds that hold the United Kingdom together. It is not written into the White Paper, but the virus is there. The proposals are the first step on the way to an independent Scotland and the break-up of the United Kingdom. - Michael Ancram, 31 July 1997
An extraordinarily prescient speech. Is there anything that Blair did that will not be regarded with derision with the benefit of hindsight?
That said, the Union, if lost, will be lost on Cameron's watch, and he will get a heavy measure of the blame.
I have just said below that there isn't a UK Olympic team - because there isn't. That's a statement of fact. No amount of waffling from you will change that simple fact.
Perhaps you should tell Team GB your theory.
www.teamgb.com/ "Official site of the UK olympic team."
On topic: Pretty unlikely, I think. We have an election in a few months' time.
Mind you, I'm enjoying the idea that this is somehow the Conservatives' fault.
The Government's proposals carry within them the virus that will begin to eat away, and eventually cause to unravel, the bonds that hold the United Kingdom together. It is not written into the White Paper, but the virus is there. The proposals are the first step on the way to an independent Scotland and the break-up of the United Kingdom. - Michael Ancram, 31 July 1997
Cameron could have offered three choices like Howard did in Australia in respect of becoming a Republic:
1. Status Quo
2. Devomax
3. Full Independence
He gambled that Status Quo will beat Independence. It still might. But with such a small margin that the issue will not go away and Scottish anger with regard to anything English will be so scathing that in some ways it would be better to part.
It's often and conveniently forgotten that not only did we contribute some £3.5 billion to the bailout of Ireland in 2010 but we also propped up the ailing Ulster Bank to the tune of some £10 billion. Ulster Bank has, I believe, branches in the Republic of Ireland.
The notion that any Government in London would, out of sheer vindictiveness, tolerate and accept the economic collapse of an independent Scotland is wholly absurd and deep down Salmond knows that and Cameron knows that too.
For all the bluster about dealing harshly with an independent Scotland, the truth is the social, financial and possibly political consequences of the economic collapse of an independent Scotland would be unsustainable.
The corollary is that voting YES next week won't lead to independence. The ballot paper should say:
"From where do you want your economic, taxation and interest rate policies controlled ?"
"bah, will soon be out of Diplomacy. My own fault for massively cocking things up. I blame proofreading (which is easily the most tedious and awful part of writing)."
You may soon be forced out of the game but not necessarily. There are options. Did you follow the Death Match and see how Nick Palmer came back from a position almost as bad as your current one is. Going mercenary is another route - you make you last unit more valuable to your enemy than the benefit he would gain from destroying your last centre. It all depends on the diplomacy. Mmmmm, having thought about the level of diplomacy in the current game when whole turns go by without a single message, you are right you are naffed.
As for proof reading. I have mentioned this before - contract it out. Some people are very, very good at it and can do it quickly and easily in one pass. For the rest of the human race it is a mind numbing slog and proof reading one's own work is guaranteed to leave in typos and missed words.
Comments
We are such a "United" Kingdom that we had Scotland play Germany in the footy on Sunday and England play Switzerland last night - separation has already occurred. In fact, psychologically as early as when the nascent (And SEPERATE) English and Scottish leagues were set up 150 years or so ago.
Wait a minute, you haven't been here for years, using lots of different names, have you?
In see you've been watching Disney movies in your absence.
What Labour needs is The Postie....
Well there has never been a sporting union outside the bizarre anomaly of the GB Olympic team, which is in any event GB and not UK. The Ireland Olympic team represents North and South.
Rugby (both codes) and cricket also have separate Scots teams.
Won't you think of the financial markets, Scotland? Is not a redeeming line for most Scots, We know who caused them to crash last time.
Hague is First Secretary of State and as such Hague is standing in for Cameron at PMQs tomorrow (in absence of Clegg).
In practice I imagine Cameron would remain PM during the leadership contest but if for any reason he didn't and a new PM is needed on the spot it will be Hague.
Losing Scotland - if it happens - will transcend everything else - Cameron will be reviled as the worst PM of the modern era and the government will be dead in the water.
Yes I enjoyed Pearl Harbour, I have a weakness for Michael Bay films
Then again I don't miss having to account for my working day into six minute blocks.
If Hague takes over immediately I wouldn't rule out him changing his decision to retire - new circumstances ... national emergency ... etc ... etc.
He is by miles the most heavyweight Con politician after Cameron - and he is very well known to the general public and always scores highly in polls.
Where will the English be more welcome?
Makes your blood boil.
Presenting the solution as a Labour solution only & continuing to use "we". He's a backbencher who never turns up in parliament FFS. Apparently its Ed Miliband's idea.
Anyone in England will go nuts about what he's proposing as it costs us all more money.
Cameron is either completely insane to allow this in his name or is more machiavellian than the great Italian himself. If I was Cameron, if you really want a no, back this nonsense, and then do nothing once the vote is finished. Should Cameron care if he screws Brown, Labour, Miliband & the SNP? Nope. Screw the English & he's compete toast.
I noted Easterross this morning saying his heart was with Yes.
Interesting times.
This is not because it's a member of the EU, but because they have adopted pro-business policies, such as a very low corporate rate, and have attracted a lot of manufacturing (particularly in technology and pharmaceuticals), as well as an increasing amount of financial services back office work.
Scotland, in the longer-term, will no follow the Irish model, and I have no doubt that they will prosper as a small-state, pro-business country.
However, between here and there will be a nasty transition period, where a lot of people are disappointed that Scotland is not a socialist nirvana - something that will be compounded by a nasty combination of falling oil prices and falling oil volumes.
Where I think it went wrong was not to offer a devomax choice, with full details provided.
so it's a UK team (plus a few more) except for NIrish who want to compete for Ireland and can if they want.
Presumably you can remember one of your alter egos seeing this earlier?
And really anyone saying Ireland is boomsville today ought to have relations there. The country is still exporting its people, GDP comparisons are meaningless since it's driven by an over valued currency and it;s only now that Dublin is starting to spring back to life, the rest of the country will be years behind.
I'm starting to think the opposite. That some Noes may warm to the idea, post Indy. I base this on only two anecdotal chats I had with arch No-ers over the weekend. They seemed to be willing to give it a fair crack of the whip, if they lose.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tuc-leader-frances-ogrady-speech-on-class-system-cut-off-by-royal-baby-newsflash-9719503.html
I wonder if it would be more dramatic if No went and won.
I saw a smidgen of a 'debate' between turbanned moron Hardeep Singh Kohli[sp] and a woman I didn't recognise (both Scottish). Kohli asked if it was 51% No and 49% Yes whether the 49% opinion would be taken into account.
The woman said yes, which seemed bonkers to me.
If you lose, you lose. If it's 49% No are the Yes campaign going to take that into consideration?
It's black or white, in or out. Not for a day or a little test phase, on a permanent basis.
Edited extra bit: bah, will soon be out of Diplomacy. My own fault for massively cocking things up. I blame proofreading (which is easily the most tedious and awful part of writing).
And if it were in Buxton it wouldn't be the Edinburgh Festival would it?? (Though Buxton is a nice place and has great festivals too I believe.)
If Cameron goes there is not time for a full blown leadership election and the men in grey suits will need someone who has the respect of the party, the ability to work with the lib dems and the ability to hold things together during what will be a very hectic constitutional upheaval. May and Osbourne are too devisive, Hammond/Javid too unknown, Boris not even in Parliment etc it only leaves Hague, who as we can see from standing in a PMQ's is the logical man to turn to if Cameron falls under a bus.
I can see him either acting as Prime Minister until the GE whilst the Tories select a new leader who then fights the General Election or taking the job and deciding not to retire afterall.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29128239
fundedsponsored byRBSUK taxpayersThe fireworks are sponsored by Virgin Money, who announced funding for the next 3 years before knowing 92% of their customer base might leave
I still think NO will sneek it. Just. A la Quebec.
But what a miserable, divided, angry place it will be on the 19th.
So it is not a UK team then? It is a GB team with some bits added.
The Ireland team is all-Ireland.
In any event Sunil's point that the three major sports are already independent is perfectly sound.
Everything on PB has to be a disaster or a home run. It's never been a place where shades of grey thrive.
Mind you, I'm enjoying the idea that this is somehow the Conservatives' fault.
The Government's proposals carry within them the virus that will begin to eat away, and eventually cause to unravel, the bonds that hold the United Kingdom together. It is not written into the White Paper, but the virus is there. The proposals are the first step on the way to an independent Scotland and the break-up of the United Kingdom. - Michael Ancram, 31 July 1997
http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1997/jul/31/scottish-devolution-1
As for trade war, who can say, UK voters will expect their govt to look after their interests, business is business. Since you're a pensions man can you really see the population of the UK leaving their pensions in iScotland ? Mine will move if it's a yes vote, assuming of course I can get through a telephone number with 55 million others in the queue.
Damn right. Why on earth would an England that had just been told to fuc< off be obliged to prop up a Scottish car carsh? The journey for Scotland from today to freedom and jam is V shaped. A very very deep and calamitous V.
The Ireland team is all Ireland if you live in Eire, or all Ireland if you want it to be if you live in NI.
And Sunil's point may be "sound" but what of it? He hasn't made me aware that England and Scotland have separate football teams; I knew that already.
You (or maybe someone else with a similar name...) said that there wasn't a UK Olympic team. That means you don't want there to be one. I say there is a UK Olympic team; this means that I do want there to be one.
@Juncker_JC: Considering issuing a statement of support for a yes in the Scottish #indyref.
If only to watch the British right-wing press go wild.
'Let them eat jokes!'
This is an insurance policy for Cameron's leadership because he can then be no more at risk than the other party leaders. Unless they all resign in the event of a YES Indy vote then none of them are going to resign.
It is a common tactic amongst company directors - "if I have to resign then we all have to resign" is commonly heard.
And we were a UNITED Kingdom!
If the ship flounders, does the Captain remain on board to ensure the safety of the passengers, or does he jump for the first lifeboat leaving Cabin boy Clegg in charge?
Re Ireland: Industrial production last month was +18%, the highest number on record, property prices are rising, the Markit surveys are among the best in the world, and its 'employment optimism' index at +20 is literally the very best in the world. No, unemployment is not back to pre-crisis levels, but it is falling at a rapid rate, and the latest temporary staffing numbers would indicate it will have sub 10% unemployment by early next year, and could be down to 8% by the end of the year.
I have just said below that there isn't a UK Olympic team - because there isn't. That's a statement of fact. No amount of waffling from you will change that simple fact.
That said, the Union, if lost, will be lost on Cameron's watch, and he will get a heavy measure of the blame.
www.teamgb.com/
"Official site of the UK olympic team."
1. Status Quo
2. Devomax
3. Full Independence
He gambled that Status Quo will beat Independence. It still might. But with such a small margin that the issue will not go away and Scottish anger with regard to anything English will be so scathing that in some ways it would be better to part.
By the way, Devomax would have won handsomely.
The notion that any Government in London would, out of sheer vindictiveness, tolerate and accept the economic collapse of an independent Scotland is wholly absurd and deep down Salmond knows that and Cameron knows that too.
For all the bluster about dealing harshly with an independent Scotland, the truth is the social, financial and possibly political consequences of the economic collapse of an independent Scotland would be unsustainable.
The corollary is that voting YES next week won't lead to independence. The ballot paper should say:
"From where do you want your economic, taxation and interest rate policies controlled ?"
A) London
"bah, will soon be out of Diplomacy. My own fault for massively cocking things up. I blame proofreading (which is easily the most tedious and awful part of writing)."
You may soon be forced out of the game but not necessarily. There are options. Did you follow the Death Match and see how Nick Palmer came back from a position almost as bad as your current one is. Going mercenary is another route - you make you last unit more valuable to your enemy than the benefit he would gain from destroying your last centre. It all depends on the diplomacy. Mmmmm, having thought about the level of diplomacy in the current game when whole turns go by without a single message, you are right you are naffed.
As for proof reading. I have mentioned this before - contract it out. Some people are very, very good at it and can do it quickly and easily in one pass. For the rest of the human race it is a mind numbing slog and proof reading one's own work is guaranteed to leave in typos and missed words.