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Almost halfway through March and still no CON poll lead – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534

    I am going to get a second baseball bat with nails in, for those who refuse to understand that cases lead hospitalisation which leads deaths.

    You can't compare cases on day x with deaths on day x.

    image
    You have a leftwing ideological agenda to impose everlasting restrictions and destroy most of what is left of our hospitality industry and much of the economy with it while leading to a surge in unemployment.

    Tough. We have a Conservative majority government which has removed all restrictions post vaccination and will continue to ignore you. The death rate from Covid in the UK is tiny and will continue to be tiny, this government is correctly moving on
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    The evidence is that Omicron is so infectious that trying to stop it with lockdowns doesn't work.

    Hence New Zealand - which has been saved from a ugly situation by the excellent roll out of the vaccine.

    China is looking at a very ugly situation - they have a huge number of unprotected, elderly and are not using the high end vaccines.

    See the horrible situation in Hong Kong.
    Is the Chinese state all that fussed about the fate of the non-productive elderly? answer: if they were, they might have prioritised vaccinating them at the expense of the young. They have done the opposite. I am just wondering whether they will pivot to a roll with it, life goes on sort of strategy when they see that lockdowns don't cut it with omicron
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    edited March 2022

    The evidence is that Omicron is so infectious that trying to stop it with lockdowns doesn't work.

    Hence New Zealand - which has been saved from a ugly situation by the excellent roll out of the vaccine.

    China is looking at a very ugly situation - they have a huge number of unprotected, elderly and are not using the high end vaccines.

    See the horrible situation in Hong Kong.
    Most over 80s in Hong Kong are unvaccinated, completely different to here
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840
    edited March 2022
    darkage said:

    This type of occupation is a recipe for disaster. The occupiers will be outnumbered by the population, who also have guns and molotov cocktails.
    A nasty thought in many ways. An American friend noticed that a lot of the amateur warriors in Ukraine, on facebook etc, have taken to adding suppressors and flash hiders to their AR platforms, to go with the scopes....
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    You have a leftwing ideological agenda to impose everlasting restrictions and destroy most of what is left of our hospitality industry and much of the economy with it while leading to a surge in unemployment.

    Tough. We have a Conservative majority government which has removed all restrictions post vaccination and will continue to ignore you. The death rate from Covid in the UK is tiny and will continue to be tiny, this government is correctly moving on
    Mad.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840
    HYUFD said:

    You have a leftwing ideological agenda to impose everlasting restrictions and destroy most of what is left of our hospitality industry and much of the economy with it while leading to a surge in unemployment.

    Tough. We have a Conservative majority government which has removed all restrictions post vaccination and will continue to ignore you. The death rate from Covid in the UK is tiny and will continue to be tiny, this government is correctly moving on
    Thank you for not liking me. It makes me feel vindicated.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840
    IshmaelZ said:

    Is the Chinese state all that fussed about the fate of the non-productive elderly? answer: if they were, they might have prioritised vaccinating them at the expense of the young. They have done the opposite. I am just wondering whether they will pivot to a roll with it, life goes on sort of strategy when they see that lockdowns don't cut it with omicron
    Chinese people, in general, quite like Granddad & Grandma. Like most humans. Funny that.

    Fucking up in the horrible way that looks inevitable to me, now, is not going to be popularity increasing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902
    This is utterly grim.

    Invading forces in Ukraine spent weeks conquering Volnovakha, inflicting damage so severe that the town no longer exists
    https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/03/14/behold-russia-s-liberation
    The town of Volnovakha lies 60 kilometers (almost 40 miles) outside Donetsk. Or rather it used to. On March 11, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced that soldiers from the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic had “liberated” the town. Ukrainian officials phrased this a bit differently, saying that Volnovakha no longer exists. Before Moscow’s full-scale invasion, more than 20,000 people lived here. Look at it now....
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Chinese people, in general, quite like Granddad & Grandma. Like most humans. Funny that.

    Fucking up in the horrible way that looks inevitable to me, now, is not going to be popularity increasing.
    Chinese people, in general, do not make the rules. Russian people, in general, probably don't like shelling the shit out of maternity hospitals.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    The really good news to come up is the forthcoming mRNA vaccines for flu.

    If the rumours I have heard are vaguely true, they are going to be extremely effective against the severe medical effects of flu. Which would save a huge number of lives each year.
    Pfizer also have an mRNA vaccine against HIV in testing at the moment. That would be a total game-changer for Africa in particular, where the currently available treatments are prohibitively expensive.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    Heathener said:

    Sorted and with apologies then x

    p.s. it was quite difficult yesterday to keep track although Marquee Mark managed to make himself the most unpleasant and obnoxious person of the lynch mob, which is saying something.
    I'll wear that badge with pride when it comes to you. Tell us where you really are...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,003

    Boris is the most supportive leader militarily for Ukraine and is held in high esteem by President Zelenskyy

    You throw out insults branding people on the right which is patently untrue and try to goad the UK and NATO into WW111

    As for covid you have been wrong from day one

    If you want people to take you seriously cut out the abuse to other posters
    Boris is still the arse of arses G. He is a lying cheating mendacious crook. His play acting at Churchill cuts no mustard, anyone can lift a phone and act the tough guy, a fake fraud.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,602

    Off-topic:

    Apple's new M1 Ultra chip looks like a beast. I give Apple a lot of stick (rightly, IMO), but their chip-design team are absolutely first-class.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QVqjMVJL8I

    I had a fascinating conversation last week about the potential for quantum entanglement based computing.

    F*** me, it’s terrifying!
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,602

    Off-topic:

    Apple's new M1 Ultra chip looks like a beast. I give Apple a lot of stick (rightly, IMO), but their chip-design team are absolutely first-class.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QVqjMVJL8I

    I had a fascinating conversation last week about the potential for quantum entanglement based computing.

    F*** me, it’s terrifying!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,612

    We are now seemingly back in the absolutely ludicrous position where, as soon as case numbers rise, the threads are clogged with zerocovidians aggressively calling for restrictions. Despite all the evidence that a) no viable restrictions work against omicron and b) the risks from covid to the individual are now lower than influenza.

    When will this ever end?

    If end = when will everyone on pb.com share my opinion on Covid, then it's never going to end.
    If end = when will we stop having restrictions, then I think we are basically there. And unlikely to go back *excepting new dangerous variant/new dangerous pandemic disease*.

    More generally, Covid has opened up a new political front (and perhaps unfortunately further politicized medicine and public health)

    Some potential implications I wonder about... more respect/encouragement for scientist-politicians, particularly among left-wing parties? We essentially have no senior politicians with a science background, unless I'm mistaken?
    Fringe parties becoming more anti-vaccine/welcoming the anti-vaxxers who seem somewhat unrepresented at the moment?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222

    We are now seemingly back in the absolutely ludicrous position where, as soon as case numbers rise, the threads are clogged with zerocovidians aggressively calling for restrictions. Despite all the evidence that a) no viable restrictions work against omicron and b) the risks from covid to the individual are now lower than influenza.

    When will this ever end?

    When people stop taking any notice of them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,092

    It's ended. We're not going back.

    Long piece in Telegraph about why this might be happening. Combination of waning and more social contacts seems to be basic theory, although as ever the experts are not in agreement.

    But no point in locking down as you say, imho.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/covid-hospital-admissions-surging-start-new-wave/
  • Thank you for not liking me. It makes me feel vindicated.
    As I am not a pure conservative in @HYUFD eyes, I wear it as a badge of honour
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840
    Nigelb said:

    And I believe that is completely misguided.

    Any attempt to impose a no fly zone would immediately give credibility to Putin's claims about NATO's aggressive expansionary designs. It would very likely shore up his domestic support - the erosion of which makes more likely the peace negotiations.
    it would also be of limited use to Ukraine. Unless we start flying combat missions against Russian ground forces it would make little difference to Ukraine's ground attack capability, most of which is provided by their Turkish drones, which seem to have no difficulty in operating in a hostile air environment. And the bulk of Russia's offensive capability has been on the ground, not in the air.

    Against that you have to set the immense risk of a tactical, or even full scale nuclear confrontation.

    If you're throwing around random accusations of cowardice, then I'll happily say that you are being completely foolhardy.
    The air war seems to be as follows

    - Ukraine flys occasional sorties.
    - Russia flys more sorties - more planes!
    - Russia seems to do either low level, or standoff attacks with cruise missiles.
    - They are also using ground launched ballistic missiles.

    1) This strongly suggests they see a serious threat from medium range SAMs. MANPADS are dangerous, radar guided missiles are different order....
    2) Reinforcing the Ukrainian SAM setup might actually have more bang for the buck than a no-fly zone. Los of operators of the older Russian kit out there.... easier to donate it, accidentally like, as well. If the Polish Migs aren't where they usually are a bunch of plane spotters will notice. If someone loses their S-300s the only people who will notice are the guys looking after the storage sheds....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,006
    The PMs of Poland, Slovenia and the Czech Republic travelling to Kiev today on behalf of the EU to meet President Zelensky and to emphasise Europe's solidarity with Ukraine. That doesn't happen if there are any concerns at all that the Russians have control of Ukrainian airspace.
  • malcolmg said:

    Boris is still the arse of arses G. He is a lying cheating mendacious crook. His play acting at Churchill cuts no mustard, anyone can lift a phone and act the tough guy, a fake fraud.
    Many do not like Boris but the President of Ukraine and Ukrainians are quite the opposite and are demonstrably so
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited March 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Most over 80s in Hong Kong are unvaccinated, completely different to here
    Those who are vaccinated, mostly have the terrible Sinovac vaccine, which no-one else wanted to buy.

    As others have suggested, do the CCP actually care about protecting the elderly, or are they quite ambivalent to losing a few million of their unproductive population helping out their famous demographic issues.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Many do not like Boris but the President of Ukraine and Ukrainians are quite the opposite and are demonstrably so
    The British loved Uncle Joe Stalin during the war.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,003
    darkage said:

    So you support a position of abandoning our nuclear deterrent, and declaring war on Russia?

    I commented yesterday that this is surely not a serious position. It falls apart under scrutiny, as has been obvious in recent TV interviews with the Scottish government. It seems more like a cynical attempt to support two popular policies, for electoral gain, safe in the knowledge that you have no significant influence on events, and don't have to make any real decisions.

    Were the SNP a bit smarter, they could have used the war as an opportunity to demonstrate their seriousness about government, in the same way that Starmer has in opposition at Westminster. Holding the NATO line, and downplaying the 'scrap trident' commitment. Instead Holyrood looks like an insignificant sixth form college talking shop.

    I have suggested that this will actually make independence less likely. It puts people off in England who are receptive to the idea of Scottish independence - like myself. I have also suggested it could have a similar effect in Scotland. I did ask a few days ago what @Farooq made of all this - but don't think I got any answer.

    Farooq is a balloon and knows square root of F all. Fact is that people in Scotland support being in NATO , do not want to hold nucleur weapons like lots of NATO members and the SNP have voted for and clearly stated they would be members of NATO.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,092
    camelot loses lottery licence after new bids
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    It's ended. We're not going back.

    Yes it’s ended in policy terms, what hasn’t (yet) ended is the repeated drumbeat from zealots who jump on any increase to call for renewed restrictions - making it harder for everyone to get on with their lives.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,003
    IshmaelZ said:

    Mad.
    A stark raving lunatic.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Stocky said:

    Slowly.

    254 patients across UK on ventilation beds with Covid. Tiny number. Peaked at over 4000 in Jan 2021.

    The frit were scared of Covid when there were no vaccines. Then they were scared of Covid with vaccines. Now they are scared of Covid with vaccines, boosters and a mild variant of Covid.

    Makes one wonder the quality of life they lead more generally and may reveal a deep and vindictive desire to clip the wings of others?
    It’s terrifying, and sad. And a public health issue in its own right.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840

    Long piece in Telegraph about why this might be happening. Combination of waning and more social contacts seems to be basic theory, although as ever the experts are not in agreement.

    But no point in locking down as you say, imho.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/covid-hospital-admissions-surging-start-new-wave/
    The cases are rising fastest, in the unvaccinated. R for the vaccinated has levelled off already.

    image
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,092
    edited March 2022

    I had a fascinating conversation last week about the potential for quantum entanglement based computing.

    F*** me, it’s terrifying!
    let's hope we get to it before the russians then.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    IshmaelZ said:

    I think we have identified the only Boris hater in the village
    Which if it were true would rather confirm Heathener's claim, since in effect you're saying that PB has become dominated by a coterie of right wingers who have a good opinion of Johnson, hardly representative of the broad swathe of UK public opinion. And I also see a lot of mutual backslapping and picking on heretics who dare to suggest something else, at least in his case. So he doesn't seem that far off the mark.

    A pretty sad outcome as far as PB is concerned.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Let’s hope there’s some truth to this, from British sources:

    “Russian forces may only be able to sustain full fighting capacity for another 'ten to 14' days, senior UK defence sources indicated last night, after which Putin's men will struggle to hold the ground they have already captured from Ukrainian troops.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10613069/Putins-forces-able-fight-14-days-military-experts-say.html
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,052
    Hi Heathener, please could you square something for me about your views?

    You are vehemently pro an NFZ over Ukraine. This as is clear could lead to a nuclear war in which the chances are you will be evaporated.You are willing to accept this outcome I assume as a price worth paying for Ukraine’s liberty (well liberated but everyone turned to dust so not much use).

    How do you balance this acceptance of death with your terror of Covid where you have stated you would attack someone who wasn’t wearing a mask near you in a supermarket ? I mean a nuclear war probably is more likely to end in your death than catching covid.

    Otherwise if an NFZ didn’t lead to a nuclear war it would likely lead to conventional war which ultimately would lead to mass call up/conscription. As someone who would be relatively high up on the list for a call up, along with quite a number of posters here who aren’t old retired white gammons, it’s very nice of you, a self declared woman of age with disabilities who will never get called up, to volunteer us on your behalf.

    Please would you confirm that you will be sending us all food packages to the front as we dream of happy days posting on PB as the bullets fly at us?

    Thanks v much.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Which if it were true would rather confirm Heathener's claim, since in effect you're saying that PB has become dominated by a coterie of right wingers who have a good opinion of Johnson, hardly representative of the broad swathe of UK public opinion. And I also see a lot of mutual backslapping and picking on heretics who dare to suggest something else, at least in his case. So he doesn't seem that far off the mark.

    A pretty sad outcome as far as PB is concerned.
    Not a Little Britain fan
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    I think Covid recedes into insignificance when set against what is happening in Ukraine, and contemplation of the existential threat posed to us by Russia; which this crisis foreshadows. People always find something to worry about, imminent war and violent death on a mass scale is always going to climb straight to the top of the list.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Sandpit said:

    Let’s hope there’s some truth to this, from British sources:

    “Russian forces may only be able to sustain full fighting capacity for another 'ten to 14' days, senior UK defence sources indicated last night, after which Putin's men will struggle to hold the ground they have already captured from Ukrainian troops.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10613069/Putins-forces-able-fight-14-days-military-experts-say.html

    Banging on about this point again - and assuming this is accurate - it’s why the arguments that Russia will ultimately prevail over Ukraine because of superior numbers is wrong. Russia does not have the luxury of time, it only has a few weeks to get this down. After that, it’s done.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840
    darkage said:

    I think Covid recedes into insignificance when set against what is happening in Ukraine, and contemplation of the existential threat posed to us by Russia; which this crisis foreshadows. People always find something to worry about, imminent war and violent death on a mass scale is always going to climb straight to the top of the list.


    The race is between the collapse of the Russian economy and the Ukrainians being beaten down, slowly, by Russia's fucked up war.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,564
    Nigelb said:

    V respected Iranian reporter here saying UK has paid its £400m debt to Iran and UK Iranian dual nationals Nazanin Zaghari Ratcliffe and Anoosheh Ashoori will be released.
    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1503649440200077314

    Also likely not unconnected with Iran's public opposition to Putin's war.

    And possibly Iranian oil sanctions?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272

    It’s terrifying, and sad. And a public health issue in its own right.
    I've seen non-health agendas in this from the start, and have posted about it.

    Those that dislike liberal democracy and want socialism. Those who hate capitalism and individualism and want state control. Those that have miserable lives who relish the opportunity to hamper those who make the most of their own. Those who are by nature curtain-twitchers who relish the chance to legitimately curtain-twitch. Those who hate the government who have been using a dreadful pandemic for political gain.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Stocky said:

    Slowly.

    254 patients across UK on ventilation beds with Covid. Tiny number. Peaked at over 4000 in Jan 2021.

    The frit were scared of Covid when there were no vaccines. Then they were scared of Covid with vaccines. Now they are scared of Covid with vaccines, boosters and a mild variant of Covid.

    Makes one wonder the quality of life they lead more generally and may reveal a deep and vindictive desire to clip the wings of others?
    Well on this morning's showing only you and @Anabobazina seem remotely perturbed by the whole thing. Bedwetting about bedwetters, as it were. Me, I get on with things but just operate on the basis that the future is unknowable (see my betting book this year for details) and that pretty much every epidemiologist in the country is warning against the course we are currently taking. It is not off the cards that things could get markedly worse.

    And don't call people cowards for disagreeing with you. I have survived stage 3 and about 2/3rds cancer where the max is 4 without at any stage getting unduly upset about the situation.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840

    Or someone who does colonoscopies?
    Or a flint knapping artisan?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    malcolmg said:

    Farooq is a balloon and knows square root of F all. Fact is that people in Scotland support being in NATO , do not want to hold nucleur weapons like lots of NATO members and the SNP have voted for and clearly stated they would be members of NATO.
    Yes but - if Scotland is pro NATO, then why is the government departing from the position held by NATO on the no fly zone? It isn't acting like a reliable future partner.

    Secondly, if the Scottish population are against nuclear weapons, does that mean that they want NATO to adopt a similar policy of unilateral disarmanent - and if so, how do they expect NATO to defend itself against nuclear attack, given that Putin has expressed his willingness to use nuclear weapons?

    Difficult questions for the SNP indeed, it seems like they are living in a dreamworld.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Stocky said:

    I've seen non-health agendas in this from the start, and have posted about it.

    Those that dislike liberal democracy and want socialism. Those who hate capitalism and individualism and want state control. Those that have miserable lives who relish the opportunity to hamper those who make the most of their own. Those who are by nature curtain-twitchers who relish the chance to legitimately curtain-twitch. Those who hate the government who have been using a dreadful pandemic for political gain.
    The future course of the pandemic is in no way correlated with the number of toys in your pram.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,951
    malcolmg said:

    Farooq is a balloon and knows square root of F all. Fact is that people in Scotland support being in NATO , do not want to hold nucleur weapons like lots of NATO members and the SNP have voted for and clearly stated they would be members of NATO.
    I rather doubt that an Indy Scotland issuing an ultimatums to rUK to remove Trident, and put at risk the UK's nuclear deterrence, will be welcomed into NATO. It's application would be vetoed. That's why for all the huffing and puffing, the removal of Trident would be fudged.

    Anyway, Indy is a dead duck now. The world has moved on, even if there are still a few poor souls left behind waving their flags, as the ship leaves the harbour.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222

    Or someone who does colonoscopies?
    Running into a colonoscopy is not the type of enthusiasm I would want for that procedure....
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667

    Which if it were true would rather confirm Heathener's claim, since in effect you're saying that PB has become dominated by a coterie of right wingers who have a good opinion of Johnson, hardly representative of the broad swathe of UK public opinion. And I also see a lot of mutual backslapping and picking on heretics who dare to suggest something else, at least in his case. So he doesn't seem that far off the mark.

    A pretty sad outcome as far as PB is concerned.
    I'm not sure that's true - there aren't many people here who are big fans of Johnson, and even HYUFD has a cheerfully transactional view - if he delivers votes, good, otherwise get rid. I do think Heathener suffered an unreasonable level of personal attacks (the speculation by one poster about her sexual preference was especially unpleasant). But it remains a site where personal abuse is unusual and people tend to rally round the target when they happen (as I'm doing right now, even though I think Heathener's support for an NFZ is dangerous).

    Basically when we vigorously attack each others' views I think that's fine - we can engage when we have the time and energy, or not. Speculating about each others' thoughts and motives should be beyond the pale unless it's an obvious bot like PJohnson, when frank derision is appropriate.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272
    IshmaelZ said:

    Well on this morning's showing only you and @Anabobazina seem remotely perturbed by the whole thing. Bedwetting about bedwetters, as it were. Me, I get on with things but just operate on the basis that the future is unknowable (see my betting book this year for details) and that pretty much every epidemiologist in the country is warning against the course we are currently taking. It is not off the cards that things could get markedly worse.

    And don't call people cowards for disagreeing with you. I have survived stage 3 and about 2/3rds cancer where the max is 4 without at any stage getting unduly upset about the situation.
    I'm not perturbed I'm disgusted. Like you, I get on with my life the best I can, sticking two fingers up at the government occasionally along the way, and cheers to that.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    kamski said:

    What? India has long had what it calls a "special relationship" with Russia, it already is aligned with Russia.

    This war does put India in a difficult position, having Russia as India's main weapons supplier if Russia becomes very dependent on China doesn't look so attractive.
    You missed my point: yes India is currently close to Russia but might be forced to make another choice if Russia becomes more of a Chinese lapdog, because India and China are not best pals.
  • Good morning from seat 2F of the 09:50 Aberdeen - Gatwick. After a dry run on a late evening flight I think I am getting the hang of this commuting by plane thing.

    The nice thing about smaller airports like Aberdeen is the human scale. From rolling up to the car park ticket barrier to clearing security took 15 minutes.

    Then as there are only a handful of gates they use for these flights go down there and wait for the inbound to nose up to the gate and you're already front of the queue to get onto your up front seat with your carry on.

    Unless there is a radical change of plan I'm going to be doing this most weeks from June so better get used to it ...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I'm not sure that's true - there aren't many people here who are big fans of Johnson, and even HYUFD has a cheerfully transactional view - if he delivers votes, good, otherwise get rid. I do think Heathener suffered an unreasonable level of personal attacks (the speculation by one poster about her sexual preference was especially unpleasant). But it remains a site where personal abuse is unusual and people tend to rally round the target when they happen (as I'm doing right now, even though I think Heathener's support for an NFZ is dangerous).

    Basically when we vigorously attack each others' views I think that's fine - we can engage when we have the time and energy, or not. Speculating about each others' thoughts and motives should be beyond the pale unless it's an obvious bot like PJohnson, when frank derision is appropriate.
    He has got the wrong end of the stick. The only Boris hater in the village = the only gay in the village from Little Britain, the point being the village is packed with them.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,392
    HYUFD said:

    You have a leftwing ideological agenda to impose everlasting restrictions and destroy most of what is left of our hospitality industry and much of the economy with it while leading to a surge in unemployment.

    Tough. We have a Conservative majority government which has removed all restrictions post vaccination and will continue to ignore you. The death rate from Covid in the UK is tiny and will continue to be tiny, this government is correctly moving on
    I know I am going to regret this but @Malmesbury is not making a political point nor deriving a conclusion but a very simple mathematical one that you are not grasping. I'll try a silly example to demonstrate. If we all catch a deadly virus on the same day that puts us in hospital in 10 days and kills us all in 20 days, then on day 1 hospitalisations and deaths are zero, but all is not well because in 20 days we will all be dead. He is pointing out the flawed logic you are using, regardless of whether the decisions based upon that flawed logic turn out correct or not.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303

    Good morning from seat 2F of the 09:50 Aberdeen - Gatwick. After a dry run on a late evening flight I think I am getting the hang of this commuting by plane thing.

    The nice thing about smaller airports like Aberdeen is the human scale. From rolling up to the car park ticket barrier to clearing security took 15 minutes.

    Then as there are only a handful of gates they use for these flights go down there and wait for the inbound to nose up to the gate and you're already front of the queue to get onto your up front seat with your carry on.

    Unless there is a radical change of plan I'm going to be doing this most weeks from June so better get used to it ...

    How long is the flight? Is it the sort of flight where you spend longer trying to find your luggage at the end than in the air?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,052

    I'm not sure that's true - there aren't many people here who are big fans of Johnson, and even HYUFD has a cheerfully transactional view - if he delivers votes, good, otherwise get rid. I do think Heathener suffered an unreasonable level of personal attacks (the speculation by one poster about her sexual preference was especially unpleasant). But it remains a site where personal abuse is unusual and people tend to rally round the target when they happen (as I'm doing right now, even though I think Heathener's support for an NFZ is dangerous).

    Basically when we vigorously attack each others' views I think that's fine - we can engage when we have the time and energy, or not. Speculating about each others' thoughts and motives should be beyond the pale unless it's an obvious bot like PJohnson, when frank derision is appropriate.
    I now want to change my posting name to “Frank Derision” -
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902

    “If you run into an asshole in the morning, you ran into an asshole. If you run into assholes all day, you're the asshole.” ― Raylan Givens
    Or you're in the east of Ukraine,
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,951
    MrEd said:

    Banging on about this point again - and assuming this is accurate - it’s why the arguments that Russia will ultimately prevail over Ukraine because of superior numbers is wrong. Russia does not have the luxury of time, it only has a few weeks to get this down. After that, it’s done.
    I do so hope this analysis is right. Unfortunately, I have the grim feeling that Putin is just going to bulldoze on until Ukraine is a smoking ruin. And if the Chinese supply him perhaps he will be able to.

    We have to remember that a successful, democratic Ukraine is an existential threat to the Russian regime, because it gives Russians hope that things don't have to remain as they are. This invasion is about crushing that hope as much as anything else.

    Reminds me a little of Tiananmen Square in that respect. An example is being made.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Good morning from seat 2F of the 09:50 Aberdeen - Gatwick. After a dry run on a late evening flight I think I am getting the hang of this commuting by plane thing.

    The nice thing about smaller airports like Aberdeen is the human scale. From rolling up to the car park ticket barrier to clearing security took 15 minutes.

    Then as there are only a handful of gates they use for these flights go down there and wait for the inbound to nose up to the gate and you're already front of the queue to get onto your up front seat with your carry on.

    Unless there is a radical change of plan I'm going to be doing this most weeks from June so better get used to it ...

    Small airports are awesome, I used to fly from Southampton quite a bit on domestic routes. Gatwick will sadly not be as straightforward. Shame BA don’t fly from Aberdeen to London City any more.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,401
    edited March 2022
    Nigelb said:

    V respected Iranian reporter here saying UK has paid its £400m debt to Iran and UK Iranian dual nationals Nazanin Zaghari Ratcliffe and Anoosheh Ashoori will be released.
    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1503649440200077314

    Also likely not unconnected with Iran's public opposition to Putin's war.

    Very good news, if true. Let's hope they're both home soon.

    Edited for clarity.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    edited March 2022
    Nigelb said:

    BREAKING: Prime Minister of Poland, Prime Minister of the Czech Republic and the Prime Minister of Slovenia are going to Kyiv to meet with Ukraine's President
    https://mobile.twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1503635646086549510

    Really? That puts us one Russian itchy trigger finger away from WWIII.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    malcolmg said:

    Have to say Mark is one of the mildest mannered gentlemen on the site.
    Then I must try harder malcy! Thanks for that though.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,003

    I rather doubt that an Indy Scotland issuing an ultimatums to rUK to remove Trident, and put at risk the UK's nuclear deterrence, will be welcomed into NATO. It's application would be vetoed. That's why for all the huffing and puffing, the removal of Trident would be fudged.

    Anyway, Indy is a dead duck now. The world has moved on, even if there are still a few poor souls left behind waving their flags, as the ship leaves the harbour.
    Deluded does not begin to describe that garbage.
  • How long is the flight? Is it the sort of flight where you spend longer trying to find your luggage at the end than in the air?
    How long? I'll tell you when we get there. Have done Luton before, this is the first to Gatwick. My luggage is above my head in the overhead bins so I won't need to wait at the other end...
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,602

    I'd much rather India had a Congress government, anti-British..... because they were the colonial power ..... or not, than the semi (?) Fascist, violently anti Hindu BJP.
    That our current PM 'gets on well with Modi' suggests the sort of man he really is.
    One that does his job?

    It’s important for the PM to haves good relationship with India’s leaders.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    Which if it were true would rather confirm Heathener's claim, since in effect you're saying that PB has become dominated by a coterie of right wingers who have a good opinion of Johnson, hardly representative of the broad swathe of UK public opinion. And I also see a lot of mutual backslapping and picking on heretics who dare to suggest something else, at least in his case. So he doesn't seem that far off the mark.

    A pretty sad outcome as far as PB is concerned.
    If you think that you cannot be on here much - both in terms of headers and posts the site is dominated by the opposite of your suggestion - indeed several of the posters named by Heathener are very public about desiring a change of leader.
  • Sandpit said:

    Small airports are awesome, I used to fly from Southampton quite a bit on domestic routes. Gatwick will sadly not be as straightforward. Shame BA don’t fly from Aberdeen to London City any more.
    Plan is to have office space on the edge of the city (Chancery Lane) so 2 mins from Farringdon. Which has direct trains from Luton and Gatwick and shortly Heathrow.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,537
    I suspect this is the long term future of Covid - not serious enough to close a production / company down but more than enough to knock someone important out for a week or more.


    Neil Gaiman
    @neilhimself
    ·
    3m
    It's so strange. On the one hand, people are acting as if we're in a post-Covid world. On the other, every day shooting Anansi Boys brings another change of schedule or plan because someone vital has covid and we've lost them for a week or more.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222

    Very good news, if true. Let's hope they're both home soon.

    Edited for clarity.
    The pieces are moving very quickly on the board at the moment. The New Pragmatism?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,392
    Sandpit said:

    Let’s hope there’s some truth to this, from British sources:

    “Russian forces may only be able to sustain full fighting capacity for another 'ten to 14' days, senior UK defence sources indicated last night, after which Putin's men will struggle to hold the ground they have already captured from Ukrainian troops.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10613069/Putins-forces-able-fight-14-days-military-experts-say.html

    I know damn all about the subject but it seems obvious to me that it is easier to supply Ukrainians with anti tank stuff than it does for Russians to replace men, tanks and supporting logistics. The two sides are fighting different types of a war.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236
    Sandpit said:

    Excuse me? Evidence for that personal slur, or withdraw it immediately.
    As far as Heathener is concerned anyone to the right of Stalin is a raving right winger.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    I'm not sure that's true - there aren't many people here who are big fans of Johnson, and even HYUFD has a cheerfully transactional view - if he delivers votes, good, otherwise get rid. I do think Heathener suffered an unreasonable level of personal attacks (the speculation by one poster about her sexual preference was especially unpleasant). But it remains a site where personal abuse is unusual and people tend to rally round the target when they happen (as I'm doing right now, even though I think Heathener's support for an NFZ is dangerous).

    Basically when we vigorously attack each others' views I think that's fine - we can engage when we have the time and energy, or not. Speculating about each others' thoughts and motives should be beyond the pale unless it's an obvious bot like PJohnson, when frank derision is appropriate.
    Fair point.

    For the record, I agree with you about a NFZ. But on the other hand allowing Putin to intimidate the West into withholding supplies of even a few replacement jets for their air force is unduly weak, and just encourages escalation on his part given that it seems to work.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    The pieces are moving very quickly on the board at the moment. The New Pragmatism?
    If true, pretty obvious that we haven't paid it "just" to secure their release. Is it Iranian oil and gas perhaps (I don't mean shipping it to us - I mean making it available on the market).
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,052

    One that does his job?

    It’s important for the PM to haves good relationship with India’s leaders.
    I wonder if Sunak becoming PM would have a massive effect on UK/Indian relations. As posted by people earlier the Congress party and Hindu nationalism are huge in India but also slightly simplistic - UK evil imperialists etc etc.

    If the leader of the UK was a Hindu of Indian origin would “India” think this was fantastic and they would blindly pivot to the UK or would it make no difference? Clearly somewhere in between most likely but would be an interesting sub-plot if he became PM.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902
    edited March 2022
    biggles said:

    Really? That puts us one Russian itchy trigger finger away from WWIII.
    Zelensky had managed to survive weeks of determined targeting, including assassination squads. I think they will be relatively safe though obviously it's not absolutely risk free.
    But it's part of emphasising support for the fact that Ukraine is a free and independent country, and the solidarity of free eastern Europe; why shouldn't they visit ?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Sandpit said:

    Small airports are awesome, I used to fly from Southampton quite a bit on domestic routes. Gatwick will sadly not be as straightforward. Shame BA don’t fly from Aberdeen to London City any more.
    LCY is amazing, apart from the time they let me through security with a set of darts in my bag that I had forgotten about, which security at Frankfurt found when I changed planes...
  • Can we all calm down a bit?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    Sandpit said:

    Small airports are awesome, I used to fly from Southampton quite a bit on domestic routes. Gatwick will sadly not be as straightforward. Shame BA don’t fly from Aberdeen to London City any more.
    I remember being at Aberdeen and there had been strong winds, delaying a number of flights. (Apologies for playing to the typical prejudices against the Scots, but it happens in this instance to be true!) BA put out an announcement asking for people to delay to a later flight as this next one was overbooked. Nobody moved. They put out a similar announcement. Nobody moved.

    Then they said "For people taking the later flight, there will be a cash payment of £42." Damn me, I was near killed in the rush....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902

    I remember being at Aberdeen and there had been strong winds, delaying a number of flights. (Apologies for playing to the typical prejudices against the Scots, but it happens in this instance to be true!) BA put out an announcement asking for people to delay to a later flight as this next one was overbooked. Nobody moved. They put out a similar announcement. Nobody moved.

    Then they said "For people taking the later flight, there will be a cash payment of £42." Damn me, I was near killed in the rush....
    That's just rational bargaining.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    boulay said:

    I wonder if Sunak becoming PM would have a massive effect on UK/Indian relations. As posted by people earlier the Congress party and Hindu nationalism are huge in India but also slightly simplistic - UK evil imperialists etc etc.

    If the leader of the UK was a Hindu of Indian origin would “India” think this was fantastic and they would blindly pivot to the UK or would it make no difference? Clearly somewhere in between most likely but would be an interesting sub-plot if he became PM.
    I think his family connections would make it impossible for him to discuss India without people shouting him down as “compromised”.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,401
    Sandpit said:

    Small airports are awesome, I used to fly from Southampton quite a bit on domestic routes. Gatwick will sadly not be as straightforward. Shame BA don’t fly from Aberdeen to London City any more.
    Southampton to Alderney was (probably still is) 'other-worldly'. First names at the gate for regular fliers and so on.
    The Customs Officers were something else, though. One trip I made EVERYTHING had to be opened, even the Christmas presents my wife had carefully wrapped because she didn't trust me to do it properly.
    Chap in front of me said "I've just flown from Johannesburg with less fuss. Do you think I'm going to nick the plane and fly it into the nuclear plant outside Cherbourg!"
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    edited March 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Zelensky had managed to survive weeks of determined targeting, including assassination squads. I think they will be relatively safe though obviously it's not absolutely risk free.
    But it's part of emphasising support for the fact that Ukraine is a free and independent country, and the solidarity of free eastern Europe; why shouldn't they visit ?
    I’m thinking more an anti aircraft missile on the way in, as it looks like Ukrainian airforce to one SAM operator.

    Edit - but I think it’s brave and wish our PM could do it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902
    Propaganda works best in societies that are not free.

    https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1503381998206861314
    Propaganda works. I had a call with my family in #Belarus. I was surprised by a question: “Is the EU happy that civilians have been killed by “banderivtsi”? We have just seen it on TV”.

    Two weeks ago,we were on the same page.

    We need support and access to free media in Belarus
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,158
    Someone yesterday posted that McDonalds were matching DEC donations. Does anyone know if that was / is still true?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,401

    One that does his job?

    It’s important for the PM to haves good relationship with India’s leaders.
    Doesn't have to be matey, though.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,502
    Weekly deaths update:

    https://tinyurl.com/bdf5dabf

    Not posted this recently as it's been fairly dull (which is a good thing!). non-COVID deaths closer to the five-year average, but that appears to be because Week 9 of 2018 was much closer to the five-year average than the weeks either side of it.

    Week-ending | 5-year average | COVID deaths | non-COVID deaths | non-COVID deaths in excess of the 5-year average

    03-Dec-21 | 10,357 | 792 | 10,867 | 510
    10-Dec-21 | 10,695 | 764 | 11,166 | 471
    17-Dec-21 | 10,750 | 755 | 11,645 | 895
    24-Dec-21 | 11,548 | 591 | 12,419 | 871
    31-Dec-21 | 7,954 | 582 | 7,895 | -59
    07-Jan-22 | 12,194* | 922 | 11,340 | -854
    14-Jan-22 | 13,387* | 1,382 | 11,929 | -1,458
    21-Jan-22 | 12,838* | 1,484 | 11,292 | -1,546
    28-Jan-22 | 12,345* | 1,385 | 11,016| -1,329
    04-Feb-22 | 11,946* | 1,242 | 10,620 | -1,326
    11-Feb-22 | 11,716* | 1,066 | 10,492 | -1,224
    18-Feb-22 | 11,450* | 863 | 10,408 | -1,042
    25-Feb-22 | 11,426* | 766 | 10,384 | -1,042
    04-Mar-22 | 11,049* | 670 | 10,555 | -494


    * I'm using 2016 to 2020. The ONS are using 2016 to 2019 and 2021, which seems silly to me. I guess they don't want to switch at the end of March, which is what I will do, and think it's best to have the five-year average inflated by COVID now but then not so much after March.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    biggles said:

    Did they make you do a 180?
    They sent me to Shanghai.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,158
    Sandpit said:

    Small airports are awesome, I used to fly from Southampton quite a bit on domestic routes. Gatwick will sadly not be as straightforward. Shame BA don’t fly from Aberdeen to London City any more.
    A big vote for Southampton. I used to fly regularly from there to Edinburgh. It's got to be my favourite airport.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,233
    biggles said:


    I’m thinking more an anti aircraft missile on the way in, as it looks like Ukrainian airforce to one SAM operator.

    Edit - but I think it’s brave and wish our PM could do it.

    Why can't he? Doesn't Zelenskyy have a big enough fridge for him to hide in?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008

    Many do not like Boris but the President of Ukraine and Ukrainians are quite the opposite and are demonstrably so
    For much the same reason he was once popular in UK, Big G. He tells Ukraine exactly what they want to hear.

    France and Germany dropped by before the war, after chat with Putin, and told Ukraine to adopt Minsk 2, Boris dropped by and told them exactly what they wanted to hear.

    As our leader, He represents us. Where he speaks on this, Britain speaks, where he walks Britain walks. If he is a cad (partygate etc) and ultimately hated for saying what someone wants to hear and not following through on promise (weak on Oligarchs and so slow and mess on refugees Putin’s generals could be managing it) we will all be hated. 😕
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272
    edited March 2022

    A big vote for Southampton. I used to fly regularly from there to Edinburgh. It's got to be my favourite airport.
    Agree, same here. Park up, less than 100m to check in.
This discussion has been closed.